In just a few weeks, Iraq has moved closer to a triangular disintegration. At the same time, the jihadists have advanced dramatically. Adverse scenarios cast a dark shadow over energy prices and growth prospects worldwide. In late March, the IMF mission met Iraq’s government leaders, central bankers, oil chiefs and senior executives. “Iraq maintained macroeconomic … Read more
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) – the radical Islamist group in control of large swaths of the two countries from which it takes its name — has released a map on its web site projecting where it wants to be just five years from now. If it manages to achieve just a … Read more
The FT’s Ed Luce recently took on the “confused signals” being sent by U.S. stock and bond prices moving in sync (upward). Which is it, he asks? Are economic prospects good, as stock prices suggest, or bleak, as bond prices suggest? Both and neither, he offers. High-end retailers like LMVH and Tiffany are doing great, he says, … Read more
*I’ll return to my series on the role of taxes in MMT later this week. Meanwhile, here’s a short post on MMT. Modern Money Theory (MMT) seems to confuse two groups of otherwise sympathetic economists. First there are those like Paul Krugman who are generally of the Keynesian persuasion and who like MMT’s “deficit owl” … Read more
A Bloomberg News article from Michael Forsythe on China’s National People’s Congress is making waves today. Coming on the heels of the failed “Jasmine Revolution” in China, the article seeks to show that the NPC is representative of the widening income gap in China. The richest 70 of the 2,987 members have a combined wealth … Read more
Closing Dinner Remarks The Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar June 21, 2014 Daniel Alpert The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Annandale-on-Hudson, New York This past weekend I was very honored to give the closing dinners remarks at the Levy Economic Institute’s Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar, which talk is set forth below. The Summer … Read more
Writing for the Upshot section of the New York Times, Harvard economist Greg Mankiw has weighed in on the Pikkety debate. He accepts Pikkety’s scenario of ever increasing inequality as at least a “provocative speculation,” if not established fact, but then asks, So what? What is wrong with inequality and inherited wealth? Nothing, says Mankiw. … Read more
Many countries seek to protect poorer households by subsidizing the consumption of fuel products. However, recent IMF research shows that fuel subsidies are both inefficient and inequitable, including in India. But what about India? Are fuel subsidies also anti-poor? Sadly, yes. A new IMF working paper shows that India’s fuel subsidies are both fiscally costly and socially regressive. … Read more
Reading the most recent statements from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda or Finance Minister Taro Aso you would get the impression that the days of deflation are now well and truly numbered in Japan. Martin Schulz, economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo, goes even further. “Deflation is over in Japan,” he told Bloomberg … Read more
Recently, the Department of Justice launched its first criminal cyber espionage case against alleged Chinese hackers. The case depends on new cyber-security start-ups – the successors of Blackwater. On Monday May 19, 2014, the Department of Justice (DoJ) filed criminal charges against five hackers in the Chinese military, accusing them of stealing American trade secrets through … Read more