EuroGroup – Money For Nothing And Your Debt For Free?
There’s an interesting question about “analysis” which confronts anyone who seriously wants to engage in it: do you organize your focus around what you want to happen (practical policy emphasis) or do you concentrate your efforts in detailing and outlining what you think will happen? Naturally the closer you are to having an ideological discourse ... Read more
Spain’s “Good” Deflation?
Spain’s domestic economy is booming, or so the story goes, and in no small part this boom comes thanks to the arrival of what is being termed the “good kind of deflation”, the sort everyone would like to have, a world where prices fall, real incomes rise, jobs are created, and everyone gets to live ... Read more
Is Japan Back In Recession?
“People should seriously consider that Japan’s economy may have fallen into recession despite the weaker yen and a stock rally from the BOJ’s easing and the flexible fiscal policy by Abe’s administration,” said Maiko Noguchi, senior economist at Daiwa Securities. “Initial expectations that the economy could withstand the negative effects of a sales tax hike ... Read more
Euro Area – Q&A on QE
By Reza Moghadam and Ranjit Teja: As inflation has sunk in the euro area, talk of quantitative easing (QE)—and misgivings about it—have soared. Some think QE is not needed; others that it would not work; and yet others that it only creates asset bubbles and may even be “illegal.” In its latest report on the euro area, the IMF assesses ... Read more
Does Abenomics Work? – The Doubts Grow
Is something in the air? Do I detect a change in consensus on the way things are going in Japan? Certainly a slew of articles have been published in the financial press over the last month questioning where the Abenomics experiment is headed for. The general conclusion seems to be that wherever it is it ... Read more
The Italian Runaway Train
There has been lot’s of debate in the press and in academic circles over the last week or so about whether Italy’s latest contraction constitutes a triple dip recession or simply a continuation of what’s been going on over many many years. This is an interesting theoretical nicety, but in fact what is happening in ... Read more
Abenomics – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
If this week’s economics news is positive then that is good. But if it’s bad then that’s even better, since there is more potential for it to improve next week, and if it doesn’t, well that’s doubly better since there will be even more reason for central banks to step in and push up asset ... Read more
Japan Inflation At A 32 Year High?
Just in case anyone was in any doubt last weeks newspaper headlines blared it out for us loud and clear – Japanese inflation is back, and has even hit levels last seen in 1982. (Click on image below for better viewing). In fact consumer prices in Japan rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in ... Read more
Will Japan Re-enter Deflation in April 2015?
Reading the most recent statements from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda or Finance Minister Taro Aso you would get the impression that the days of deflation are now well and truly numbered in Japan. Martin Schulz, economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo, goes even further. “Deflation is over in Japan,” he told Bloomberg ... Read more
Spain: The Land Where Incipient Deflation Becomes Good News For Headline GDP (Updated 29/05/2014).
The Spanish National Statistics Office (INE) today published the first detailed estimate of Spain’s Q1 GDP. Basically they confirm the gist of the original Bank of Spain numbers (see my report of 25 March below) although there are some important nuances. In my earlier report, I stressed that Spain’s Q1 surge was as much a ... Read more