Impact of US Monetary Policy on Global Economies
The US monetary policy is the Federal Reserve’s actions and communications to achieve the economic goals set by Congress. Some of those goals include maximum employment, moderate long-term interest rates, and stable prices. The US monetary policy significantly impacts the global economies mainly through the ‘global financial cycle’. Changes in the US interest rates influence ... Read more
One Chart Shows Why the Odds Keep RisingThat the Fed Will Raise Rates
Will policymakers at the Fed raise interest rates at their December meeting? Wall Street oddsmakers increasingly think they will. One simple chart shows why. The chart tracks the economy’s progress toward the central bank’s target of “stable prices and maximum employment.” The Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has operated under this so-called dual ... Read more
EuroGroup – Money For Nothing And Your Debt For Free?
There’s an interesting question about “analysis” which confronts anyone who seriously wants to engage in it: do you organize your focus around what you want to happen (practical policy emphasis) or do you concentrate your efforts in detailing and outlining what you think will happen? Naturally the closer you are to having an ideological discourse ... Read more
Recovery Still Policy-Led, Political Risks on the Rise, EMs Under Pressure
Five years into the crisis, the global recovery remains supported by policies[1]. In 2014, monetary policy will remain accommodative, to facilitate the healing of the financial system and private sector deleveraging. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) will gradually reduce quantitative easing (QE), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are likely ... Read more
Fed Watch: Dudley Revisits Exit Strategy
Today New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley gave what was both an interesting and depressing speech. Interesting in that he provides some new thoughts on the exit strategy. Depressing in that he outlines a case for persistently low interest rates. One wonders why, given such an outlook, the Fed is so firmly focused on the ... Read more
What Quantitative Easing Did Not Do: Three Revealing Charts
The Fed has declared an official end to quantitative easing. It is a logical time to ask, did QE work? Danielle Kurtzleben gives the honest answer in a recent post on Vox: “It’s very, very hard to know.” Still, we do know three things that QE did not do. These are worth pointing out, especially ... Read more
Five Reasons Not to Fear Deflation: Which Ones Make Sense?
In a post earlier this week, I explained why a majority of economists fear deflation. They argue that deflation disrupts the operation of financial markets and labor markets in a way that risks touching off a downward spiral. At the same time, they say, deflation weakens the power of monetary policy to reverse the downward ... Read more
Is Japan Back In Recession?
“People should seriously consider that Japan’s economy may have fallen into recession despite the weaker yen and a stock rally from the BOJ’s easing and the flexible fiscal policy by Abe’s administration,” said Maiko Noguchi, senior economist at Daiwa Securities. “Initial expectations that the economy could withstand the negative effects of a sales tax hike ... Read more
Euro Area – Q&A on QE
By Reza Moghadam and Ranjit Teja: As inflation has sunk in the euro area, talk of quantitative easing (QE)—and misgivings about it—have soared. Some think QE is not needed; others that it would not work; and yet others that it only creates asset bubbles and may even be “illegal.” In its latest report on the euro area, the IMF assesses ... Read more
Does Abenomics Work? – The Doubts Grow
Is something in the air? Do I detect a change in consensus on the way things are going in Japan? Certainly a slew of articles have been published in the financial press over the last month questioning where the Abenomics experiment is headed for. The general conclusion seems to be that wherever it is it ... Read more