This comes from Andy Lees at UBS: The Australian think tank, The Lowy Institute has warned that risks are growing that the incidents at sea involving China could lead to a war in Asia. The risk-taking behaviour of the Chinese military, its resource needs and greater assertiveness has raised the possibility of armed conflict that … Read more
Much has been made of China’s property bubble (or not) over the last 24 months. Highlighted by Jim Chanos’ bet that real-estate in the Lone Star Country was headed not only for a major correction but perhaps an all out crash, there have been many a bet made on China experiencing something akin to a … Read more
Spain, as those 1990s tourist brochures used to tell us, is different. And it certainly shouldn’t be confused with Greece. Even a cursory look at the most basic of maps should satisfy any doubts we might be harbouring in that regard. But being different is not the same thing as being economically sound. Which is … Read more
The pending announcement of precisely how quickly the United States plans to begin unraveling the 2009 “surge” in Afghanistan is being billed as a watershed by the media in spite of the fact that President Obama telegraphed this move two years ago. As a reminder, let’s go back (queue the wobbly, kaleidoscopic music) to December … Read more
Back in the fall of last year, we commented to many that the so-called “foreclosure-gate,” or “document-gate” (remember, the Schwarzeneggerian term “robo-signers”) was going to prove to be a double edged sword for the large banks. On the one hand, lying to judges and facing the possible voiding of mortgage collateral documents and the ability … Read more
And we’ve got yet more news… “The leaders of Germany and France have said that they want a new rescue package for debt-laden Greece to be agreed as soon as possible…. But Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy said any private sector involvement should be “voluntary” not compulsory. It was unclear under what terms private investors … Read more
From the Financial Times: The muddle-through approach to the eurozone crisis has failed to resolve the fundamental problems of economic and competitiveness divergence within the union. If this continues the euro will move towards disorderly debt workouts, and eventually a break-up of the monetary union itself, as some of the weaker members crash out. The … Read more
On Wednesday, we saw another mild Industrial Production, whether you look at at yearly: or monthly data: You can get the full details from Citi’s short note, but I will make a couple of observations in my usual traditon. For one thing, although there is a moderation in growth, my recent concerns still hold: I.e. … Read more
There are at least four reasons why a downgrade of rating/outlook of the Italian sovereign debt by the main rating agencies is becoming increasingly likely, some home-made, some imported. 1. The municipal elections have weakened the government and, most importantly, the “pro-fiscal-discipline” faction within it: I discuss this point here . 2. In late April, … Read more
Back in July 2010, in introducing a blog post with the title “Is There Global Economic Slowdown In The Works?” I couldn’t help posing the following question: “According to Ralph Atkins writing in the Financial Times last week, “the pace of Germany’s recovery is helping dispel fears of a “double dip” recession across the continent … Read more