Now that the golden era for emerging markets has ended, Nouriel Roubini looks ahead. Which emerging markets will put their houses in order and grow, and which ones face overwhelming odds? In the race between China and India, which will be the tortoise and which will be the hare?
Nouriel Roubini discusses the underlying causes of dysfunction in DC and assesses the impact gridlock may have on the US economy in coming years. Can divided US leadership enact the necessary structural reforms before it’s too late?
Innovations in robotics and artificial intelligence promise mind-boggling advances and higher productivity, but at a cost. Nouriel Roubini outlines the transformative effects the technological revolution will have on employment and advanced as well as emerging economies.
By Nick Cunningham: Vietnam and China are engaged in a heated standoff in the South China Sea, with both sides thus far unwilling to back down. The problem started earlier this week when China sent an oil rig and other accompanying vessels into an area within the 200-mile exclusive economic zone of Vietnam. From there, … Read more
By Amitava Mukherjee: A China watcher named Claude Arpi has drawn attention to a recently posted article on the website of the Yellow River Conservancy Commission under China’s Ministry of Water Resources. The article speaks of the necessity and feasibility of diverting the waters of some rivers, including the Brahmaputra (called Yarlung Tsangpo in China), to … Read more
At his West Point speech, President Obama articulated as close as we are likely to get to an ‘Obama Doctrine.’ The United States, he said, “will use military force, unilaterally if necessary, when our core interests demand it — when our people are threatened; when our livelihoods are at stake; when the security of our … Read more
Today New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley gave what was both an interesting and depressing speech. Interesting in that he provides some new thoughts on the exit strategy. Depressing in that he outlines a case for persistently low interest rates. One wonders why, given such an outlook, the Fed is so firmly focused on the … Read more
View a larger version of this Geo-Graphic here. The “law of one price” holds that identical goods should trade for the same price in an efficient market. To what extent does it hold internationally? The Economist magazine’s famous Big Mac Index uses the price of McDonald’s burgers around the world, expressed in a common currency (U.S. … Read more
Volatility has sharply declined in Emerging Markets (EM) since the nerve-wracking heights of August 1998, when it reached a staggering 300 basis points (measured by EMBI’s intra-month standard deviation). Recent market volatility in the US sub-prime mortgage market and the April-May 2006 shakeup brought memories of 1998, when the Russian default sent the risk premium … Read more
The answer depends on your definition of “bubble”… and the market under the microscope. “House prices differ widely across OECD countries, both with respect to recent changes and to valuation levels,” the OECD advises in a report on residential real estate around the world. Measured by the recent price-to-income ratio (a measure of affordability) relative to its … Read more