Which Options for Mr. Renzi to Revive Italy and Save the Euro?
Since 2008, Italy’s industrial production has shrunk 25 per cent. In the last quarter of 2013, while exports reached back to almost the same level as in 2007, household consumption was down by about 8 per cent and investment by 26 per cent, with a capacity loss in manufacturing hovering around 15 per cent. Between ... Read more
Overt Money Financing and Public Debt
Purpose and Concepts The purposes of this brief note are two-fold: first, to establish, by country, the extent to which public sector borrowing contributed to the rise in public debt over the period since 2008; and, second, to draw some policy inferences. The two indicative fiscal parameters used in this analysis are: Borrowing = general ... Read more
European Policy Makers Don’t Understand But Markets Do
So here we are: the Italian yield curve is flat at above 7%; the government institution is in question; and the ECB is using its SMP purchase program as a carrot to drive austerity implementation in and Berlusconi out. Some would argue that the ‘market is irrational’ – Italy faces a liquidity not solvency crisis. That’s the ... Read more
Worries About Italy: Growth and Politics
Current bond market pricing implies a 6.17% yield on a 10-yr Italian government bond, or 430 basis points (%/100) over a like German government bond. I’d call this distressed levels for Italian debt, especially for an economy that is very likely contracting as we speak. Today Mark Thoma points us to Kash Mansori’s article on ... Read more