The exact origins of the expression are unknown. They are lost back then, somewhere in the mists of time. But the meaning of the phrase is perfectly intelligible. In Spanish “to end up like the Rosario De L’Aurora” (acabar como el rosario de la aurora), means to end up badly. Very badly. The Rosario in question … Read more
All the investors I spoke to during my London investor trip two weeks ago were wondering how the Central Bank would respond to excessive capital flows, and whether credit rating agency Moody’s would follow in Fitch’s footsteps by upgrading Turkey to investment grade. We will get partial answers to both questions this week. Tomorrow we … Read more
U.S. inflation data released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that a two-month spike in headline inflation seems to have run its course. Both headline and core inflation measures are now close to or below the Fed’s 2 percent target. In a related development, the Atlanta Fed reports that deflation probabilities have nosedived … Read more
Despite recent elusive gains, the Eurozone is teetering closer to the periphery cliff. The impending Greek default is forcing Germany, France, Brussels, ECB and IMF to unite – for the sake of Spain and Italy. Since the late summer, the uneasy tension in European markets seems to have subsided. Unfortunately, timeouts are brief and sweet. … Read more
I really appreciate the comments on my recent post on QE3 and developmental central banking, particularly the detailed piece by Thomas Grennes and Andris Strazds (Can The Fed Kill Two Birds With One Stone?). I would like to clarify some points of my original blog that probably were not that obvious. I would summarize the … Read more
It is “QE Week” at EconoMonitor and here’s my contribution. No, we aren’t celebrating either the Monarch or the ship. We’re talking about the Fed’s Quantitative Easing. I’m going to discuss the basics of QE and explain why it’s Much Ado about almost Nothing. This past September the Fed announced full speed ahead with QE3. … Read more
At the start of 2012, the consensus view was for a mild recession in the Euro Area, deceleration of growth in emerging markets (with a soft landing in China) and below trend growth in the US. In late January, we ascribed an 80% probability that the US is on the brink of a recession with … Read more
According to the EU Commission’s website, the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) is a surveillance mechanism that aims to prevent and correct macroeconomic imbalances within the EU. It relies on an alert system that uses a scoreboard of indicators and in-depth country studies, strict rules in the form of a new Excessive Imbalance Procedure (EIP) and … Read more
Last week I predicted that after the election Washington would return to deficit hysteria, and especially toward Pete Peterson’s well-financed attempt to gut our social safety net. You see, he doesn’t believe that Wall Street should have any competition. Americans should have no alternative to Blackstone Group and Goldman Sachs when it comes to retirement and … Read more
About a month ago I discussed in Economonitor the likelihood that the “Monti agenda” of budgetary discipline (so far large tax increases and promises of spending cuts ) and growth-oriented liberalizations (yet to be implemented) would still be at the core of agenda of the next Italian government, after the 2013 elections. In Italy, the … Read more