Are Banks Safe Enough? Do we Really Know? Risk Weighting, Regulatory Arbitrage, and other Issues

During the global financial crisis, people in the United States, Ireland, Iceland, and many other countries learned that undercapitalized banks can spell trouble for the whole economy. The Basel II rules that were supposed to prevent widespread bank failures proved inadequate. In response to the crisis, the world’s central bankers and bank regulators started work … Read more

The Fiscal Cliff (Video)

The Fiscal Cliff (Video)

Last week I mentioned my presentation, the Steinhardt Lecture at Lewis & Clark College in Oregon. The title was: “Fiscal Cliffs, Debt Limits, and Unsustainable Deficits: Can the US Really Run Out of Dollars?” Fiscal Cliffs, Debt Limits, and Unsustainable Deficits: Can the U.S. Really Run from The Resource Lab on Vimeo Here is the video link. … Read more

Environmental Issues that Could De-Rail the Natural Gas Boom

Environmental Issues that Could De-Rail the Natural Gas Boom

There are two key environmental issues that have the most likelihood of slowing the natural gas boom or, perhaps, redirecting its trajectory: fracking chemicals and fracking water usage. Fracking chemicals: what the frack? Inflamed by dramatic scenes like tap water catching on fire, worries over the effect of fracking on the quality of groundwater have … Read more

Foreign Investment Relocates in China and Asia

Foreign Investment Relocates in China and Asia

At the surface, foreign direct investment (FDI) into China has been declining for months. In 2012, it fell 3.7 percent to $111.7 billion, according to the Ministry of Commerce. In January, the drop was 3.7 percent –the lowest level since 2009. Internationally, the decline has been portrayed as a sign of decreasing foreign interest in … Read more

France’s Firebreak Weakens

France’s Firebreak Weakens

France had pinned its hope that threat to EMU would be turned back before the wolf came it its door. The Italian political tensions come at the poor time for France. Its ability to absorb shocks is terrible constrained. Recall what has happened in recent days. Q4 GDP showed a larger contraction than expected. The … Read more

Why Obama Refuses to Kill the Sequester

Why Obama Refuses to Kill the Sequester

We are in the midst of the blame game about the “Sequester.”  I wrote last year about the fact that President Obama had twice blocked Republican efforts to remove the Sequester.  President Obama went so far as to issue a veto threat to block the second effort.  I found contemporaneous reportage on the President’s efforts to preserve … Read more

Krugman is Right about Simpson-Bowles: The Buzzards Circle the Fiscal Cliff

Krugman is Right about Simpson-Bowles: The Buzzards Circle the Fiscal Cliff

In a powerful piece, Paul Krugman blasts Alan Simpson as an ignoramus when it comes to federal government budgets: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/21/alan-simpson-and-bernie-madoff/?smid=tw-share. He rightly wonders why anyone takes this nutter seriously: “Simpson is, demonstrably, grossly ignorant on precisely the subjects on which he is treated as a guru, not understanding the finances of Social Security, the truth … Read more

Reinventing Government: The 1995 Speeches Announcing The Road to Ruin

Reinventing Government: The 1995 Speeches Announcing The Road to Ruin

Anyone who has worked for a large government or firm knows their tendency to be bureaucratic.  Everyone has had the experience of dealing with bureaucratic mentalities, including the volunteer soccer referee who lets power go to his head and becomes an arrogant demigod.  Everyone has had to deal with a public clerk or a private … Read more