Inflation Expectations in Brazil
In order to reanchor expectations, the elected president will have to prioritize inflation’s return to its target. In its latest poll among economic analysts, the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) computed the median of inflation expectations for 2014 above 6.5%, the ceiling of the band around the inflation target (4.5%). This has heated the debate about ... Read more
Brazil’s Gross Debt and the Fiscal Stance
The accounting tricks and the exaggerated expansion of government-owned banks have turned the gross debt into an indispensable indicator of fiscal stance. Recently, two international rating agencies, Moody’s and S&P, have signaled that their evaluation of the Brazilian economy has worsened. One of its main reasons is the public indebtedness’ evolution. There are two main ... Read more
Revisiting My 2011 Predictions
Since the beginning of the global crisis in 2007-08 I have argued that the crisis was a consequence primarily of global trade imbalances generated by structural features that led to significant saving imbalances in China, the US, and within Europe. I describe this model in more detail in my recent book, The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and ... Read more
How America Builds Its Way Back to Balance
The following is an excerpt from The Reckoning: Debt, Democracy and the Future of American Power, with a forward by Dr. Nouriel Roubini, available in the United States on this week from Palgrave Macmillan and in Europe on 17 May. Moran, a former RGE vice president and geostrategy analyst, is now Director and Editor-in-Chief of ... Read more