EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

CNBC Video and Report – Portugal to Fall, Greece to Leave Euro Zone: Roubini

CNBC — Portugal is likely to be the next to restructure its debt and exit the euro zone, economist Nouriel Roubini predicted on CNBC Friday.

There are several euro-zone countries in trouble, including Italy and Spain, but Roubini sees Portugal as the weakest.

The longtime bear and chairman of Roubini Global Economics said the Greek bond swap and resulting declaration of default — triggering insurance payouts — is “overall a positive.”

But on the ground in Greece, it’s a different story. With unemployment at 22 percent and half the nation’s youth unemployed, “the contractions are becoming severe. The country is still insolvent.”

He goes so far as to predict that Greece “will be the first country to exit the euro zone, not this year, maybe later next year.”

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He also sees little encouragement in economic data out of China and the U.S.

There’s risk of the Chinese economy having a hard landing — He predicts growth of less than 6 percent quarter over quarter and closer to 7.5 percent year over year for 2012. Residential investment is starting to fall and infrastructure projects have been stalled as the Chinese leaders move the nation from being a net exporter to promoting domestic consumption.

As for the U.S., employment data released Friday were better but real consumption growth has been flat for three months, capital expenditures fell in January after federal tax breaks expired, construction and home prices have fallen and net exports are worsening, Roubini said.

In addition, there is continued conflict in the Middle East, which can only drive oil prices even higher.

In short, he said, “I still see a very anemic [U.S.] economic recovery.”

4 Responses to “CNBC Video and Report – Portugal to Fall, Greece to Leave Euro Zone: Roubini”

Tilak RatnayakeMarch 13th, 2012 at 6:53 am

What a sharpe mind NR is.NR at his typewriter feels the ice under the feet and can smell the stroms that are brewing before most of us.Good thing is he shares it with the world so that early meaningful corrective action is posible.

Paul H. SeoMarch 14th, 2012 at 3:28 am

Can an economy be really survived and rebuilt again with the excess flow of paper money?
Is the current economy a real or a bubble scum between the industries of visible production and invisible (monetary) movement?
Have we been accumulating big storm in the economy for the future?
What kinds of economic circumstance is there in front of us in the future?
How can we estimate and evaluate the real economy?

DuaneMarch 14th, 2012 at 5:02 am

The only reason that the economy or the (stock market as everyone measures the recovery by) looks better is because interest rates are at a all time LOW and people have moved the money they have left into stocks (Roll the Dice again!!!! 7"s) its all a sham sham…..shame on us all….vote in november

APGMarch 22nd, 2012 at 2:08 pm

In my view the world economy is on the edge of financial armegedon. There are so many financial problems that have yet to be resolved that most of us are not aware of as its all very well hidden. Only the snippets of real information that leak out about how tenuous the financial house of cards world wide is should be a warning to any person with any sense of objectivity and economics education. Thanks to NR for informing us with reliable information on a timely basis. Appraiser/Real Estate Broker