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Spain Is the New Greece

Nearly one Spaniard in four is unemployed, according to data released on Friday, as the country’s economic and financial predicament prompted a government minister to talk of a “crisis of enormous proportions”.The data from the National Statistics Institute showed 367,000 people lost their jobs in the first three months of the year. At this pace, Spanish job losses are equivalent to 1 million per month in the United States. That means more than 5.6m Spaniards or 24.4 per cent of the workforce are unemployed, close to a record high set in 1994.

Spain has become the new Greece. Actually, in many respects Spain is now worse than Greece. The Spanish unemployment rate is already so high and unlike Athens, Madrid has made no headway in reducing its public debt levels (whereas the Greeks are close to running a primary fiscal surplus at which point they could leave and turn the problem back on to Brussels). Moreover, Spain has a huge private debt burden that is twice that of Greece.

Although I have warned on these pages before that Spain’s austerity program was leading the country to disaster, my reaction to this economic catastrophe has been one of amazement. Just take a look at this employment data

Spain First Quarter Unemployment: Summary (Table)
2012-04-27 07:00:00.13 GMT

1Q Quarterly Yearly
2012 Net Change QoQ % Net Change YoY%
Both Sexes
Over 16s 38,493.70 -14.5 -0.04% -18.4 -0.05%
Active Workforce 23,072.80 -8.4 -0.04% 10.9 0.05%
Employed 17,433.20 -374.3 -2.10% -718.5 -3.96%
Unemployed 5,639.50 365.9 6.94% 729.4 14.85%
Inactive 15,420.90 -6.1 -0.04% -29.3 -0.19%
Activity Rate 59.94% 0.00% n/a 0.06% n/a
Unemployment Rate 24.44% 1.59% n/a 3.15% n/a
16 to 64 30,606.00 -52.5 -0.17% -171.4 -0.56%
Activity Rate 74.87% 0.13% n/a 0.44% n/a
Unemployment Rate 24.59% 1.59% n/a 3.17% n/a
Employment Rate 56.47% -1.09% n/a -2.03% n/a

 

Yet, until now Rajoy Administration has been saying that the marginal decline in GDP estimated by the Bank of Spain for the first quarter was exaggerating economic weakness. Now we have the spectacle of the Spanish government suggesting that the Bank of Spain estimate of a .4% decline in Q1 Spanish GDP is too pessimistic. But in light of these numbers, what kind of GDP decline should one realistically expect when employment falls two percent non annualized in a quarter? At least a four percent annualized decline. more likely much higher. Yet who is talking discussing that as a real possibility in Brussels? Nobody. Everybody remains asleep at the wheel.

For years, the Spanish GDP figures have been hard to square with the underlying collapse in industrial production and rise in unemployment, both of which were more realistically reflecting the scale of the country’s collapse into depression.

When I said a few months ago that the Spanish government was lying about their numbers, I was attacked by a few Spanish readers of this blog, who claimed I was a nefarious hedge fund manager, likely loaded up to the gills with CDSs on Spanish debt who was trying to foment panic. For the record, I have never bought a credit default swap in my life. If anything, I was trying to foment panic because I was horrified by the new ultra austerity stance adopted by the recently elected Rajoy Administration.

Now consider the reality: the economy is crashing, hence the unemployment rate rise. Yet German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the ECB President, Mario Draghi, continue to insist that one can have both fiscal restriction and a lower domestic price level despite the fact that Spain has a non financial private debt to GDP ratio of 230%.

Interestingly enough, Dutch levels of private debt to GDP are even higher, at 249%, the highest in Europe. By contrast, the Italians still have net household savings. So who are the real “profligates” in Europe?.

Those who embrace these ruinous austerity policies will soon be seeing the experiencing much the same kinds of conditions as the Spanish (albeit from less depressed levels) including the moralistic Dutch, whose finance minister has been a crusader in favour of even harsher fiscal rules than those embodied in the Stability and Growth Pact.We have also recently witnessed a big surprise decline in the German consumer confidence index last week as well as a collapse in an Italian retailing sentiment index. The austerity disease is intensifying the crisis, even in the core.

It is inconceivable to me that Super Mario Draghi won’t be changing his tune soon, in spite of what he and the Merkel government are now saying for public consumption. To continue with this present course will not only precipitate a collapse of the euro, but a political collapse across Europe.

There is no question that larger deficits are needed to support aggregate demand at desired levels. However, as all of us who have contributed to this blog have long noted, the problem is the national governments are currently like US states and as such are revenue constrained because they are USERS, rather than ISSUERS of the currency (as opposed to, say, Canada or the US, both of which are sovereign issuers of their own currency).

So relaxing the deficit limits without some kind of ECB funding guarantees can cause markets to abstain from funding the national governments, which creates a solvency crisis of the kind we are experiencing today. Said another way, without the ECB the euro members are currently deep into ‘Ponzi’, as my friend, Warren Mosler has described it. In reality, they have all been in ‘Ponzi” since day one. But it took a crisis of the magnitude of 2008 to make this manifest for the markets.

At some level, the ECB understands that, as it always”writes the cheque” when a systemic crisis pushes the system to the brink. It can be no other way, as it is the sole issuer of the euro. But for the most part, Europe’s policy making elites remain in denial, as they continue to turn away from the one entity that could address the insolvency issue.

And let’s be clear once and for all. The US government does not face the same kind of crisis as the Spanish, the Greeks, the Dutch or even the Germans. The US government has expanded its public debt ratio considerably in recent years but yields remain low and when the ratings agencies downgraded their assessment of the US sovereign debt the demand for it rose. Whither the so-called “bond market vigilantes”?

The Euro governments are in a different camp altogether. All those who actually understand that the member governments are using a foreign currency and thus are not at all like Japan, the US or the UK governments, appreciate that there is default risk attached to the paper issued from the EMU governments.

They also appreciate that with the non-elected eurocrats of Brussels insisting on a decade or more of austerity and implementing fiscal rules that these would ensure a crisis every time there has been a serious downturn in aggregate demand. And with that, the risk of default with government debt has risen. That is what we are seeing today across the euro zone. And in Spain it is writ large.

The mainstream austerity line is trapping Spain (as well, as Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland and soon the core of the euro zone) in a dangerous downward spiral of lost income and increased unemployment. I still think Francois Hollande’s likely election could well change the political dynamics in the euro zone, even though he generally buys into the mainstream neo-liberal euro line. Hollande is an “austerity lite” character, as opposed to being a genuine reflationist. But even he cannot be oblivious to the looming political and social dangers which await France, if he continues to pursue the policies embraced by the current President, Nicolas Sarkozy.

So far, Brussels has not let facts get in the way of a good neo-liberal theory, but it’s getting increasingly hard to ignore this emerging horror show.

This post originally appeared at New Economic Perspectives and is posted with permission.

20 Responses to “Spain Is the New Greece”

GuillermoApril 30th, 2012 at 10:56 am

Dont be silly: Spain is not like Greece. Its debt is about 70% unlike Greece with120%. But if Spain falls Im sure that even the USA will suffer a lot. Thers no money enough to give to Spain

halfacanuckApril 30th, 2012 at 1:32 pm

@Guillermo: Take a look at private debt levels, including financial (I'm not sure why Marshall excludes financial sector debt; in my opinion it only "nets to zero" if you assume everyone will be able to pay their bills on time). Spain's total private debt load is crushingly enormous — approaching 300% even based on official figures.

GuillermoMay 1st, 2012 at 1:36 am

But talking about debt, luxemburgo has a debt of 1600%,, Nederlands about 700% and i dont remember exactljy what was Germanys but its more or less like Spain.
Alll EZ will crash, not only some countries
And about unemployment rate i must sy that its not 24%, if it was this, there dolud have been a revolution long time ago

Hans SinnMay 1st, 2012 at 4:49 am

government money incentive into the economy is just like burning money. Give the economy more freedom to work, less fiscal drag, more freedom to hire and fire and teach the youngsters how to start a own business.
Like Ludwig Erhard in Germany after World War II: "give freedom to the economy and it will run"

treasuryresearchMay 1st, 2012 at 12:12 pm

FWIW.. As of October 2011, there were approximately 594,833,600 €500 banknotes in circulation around the Eurozone. approximately €297,416,801,500. Alledgedly 1/4 of these are in Spain..Alejandra Gómez, a criminology professor at the University of Malaga, said in an interview that "The only thing these bills indicate for sure is that there is a high-level underground economy here,"

AmtakMay 1st, 2012 at 7:45 pm

That's silly. postwar Germany benefited from an enormous influx of exogenous capital (such as the Marshall Plan) because nobody wanted a repeat of 1918-1940.

AmtakMay 1st, 2012 at 8:01 pm

Not surprising. While England and Ireland were booming, the British and Irish (and Germans too) were busily buying second homes in Spain, especially after the Barcelona Olympics invited everyone there. This stimulated enormous home construction and remodeling, and as each such project went commercial, Spaniards borrowed to the hilt (aided by low interest rates) and bought as many units as they could — then attached an extra 100,000 Euros to each one and flipped them to the second-home buyers. This all went swimmingly for Spanish investors until the British and Irish economies collapsed, then thousands of empty units on the market but devoid of purchasers and voila! enormous private debt, followed by rapidly rising unemployment. There's much more to the story of course, but this is one example of "a high-level underground economy" that went aground.

phrazzlemeMay 1st, 2012 at 10:59 pm

Spain just lost YPF to Argentina and another one to Bolivia. They turn around and forgive Bolivian debt. I think Spain is reeking weakness and the animals smell it and are attacking!
There is something bigger than Spain happening here: Governments and the masses are rejecting an old system which favored the banks and the rich. The rich and powerful are out of favor and a new revolution is taking place.

BobitoMay 10th, 2012 at 4:12 am

A common joke in Spain: the Germans have finally conquered Europe.

Europe is heading towards more than financial collapse. It is heading towards war.

caterinaMay 15th, 2012 at 5:30 am

Trying to understand two things:
1) Greece has always been the sick man, even before entering Europe, didn't anyone know this?
2) why burning money trying to save Greece instead of investing it in a less painful exit from Eu?

Nicolas2May 17th, 2012 at 5:05 pm

Europe only hope was that France would stick to sarkozy. With hollande, we have the crisis, plus a new one, as he is fighting head to head against the Germans and break the unite that was necessary in those bad times. Europe is dead aven though it might not realize it. Not euro. Europe. Thanks to the great thinkers who have theory to say counting is meaningless.

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Emre Deliveli The Kapali Carsi

Emre Deliveli is a freelance consultant, part-time lecturer in economics and columnist. Previously, Emre worked as economist for Citi Istanbul, covering Turkey and the Balkans. He was previously Director of Economic Studies at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey in Ankara and has has also worked at the World Bank, OECD, McKinsey and the Central Bank of Turkey. Emre holds a B.A., summa cum laude, from Yale University and undertook his PhD studies at Harvard University, in Economics.

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