I was at a conference at the Cato Institute two weeks ago discussing some research by Dartmouth Professor Doug Irwin on the role of the gold standard in the Great Depression of 1929-1933. If you’re interested, you can see a written version of my comments, the slides from my presentation, or a video of the … Read more
Perceptions have certainly changed a lot in the last few months. As recently as three years ago there were so few analysts who were skeptical about the sustainability of Chinese growth that we rarely disagreed among ourselves. Now, however, the group of skeptics has become large enough that there are serious disagreements among us as … Read more
Eurostat released its volume-adjusted estimate of construction for April (release here, .pdf). Over the month, Euro area construction declined 2.75% following a large 11.41% monthly increase in March. Across the countries that make monthly data available (8 countries total), Slovenia and Portugal saw the largest decline in April construction activity, -9.3% and -6.7%, respectively, while … Read more
New Democracy (ND) just barely pulled ahead of the anti-bailout, left-wing Syriza in the election on June 17th. According to the Greek constitution, the party in first place wins 50 bonus seats in parliament. With roughly 85% of the votes counted and Syriza having conceded defeat, it looks like ND will have 130 seats, Syriza … Read more
Last year foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America continued its surge, topping $150 billion, an all time high for the region. According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean’s report “Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean,” the inflows climbed 31 percent—the most of any region and three times … Read more
China and the U.S. appear to be on a collision course over accounting. That’s a lot more serious than it sounds. By the end of this year, unless a compromise can be reached, there is a very real chance that U.S. securities regulators may end up employing the “nuclear option”: forcibly delisting every Chinese company … Read more
Summary: Greece had its election. The pro-austerity party won, despite their policy’s lack of success — and lack of historical or theoretical foundation (it’s contrary to basic economics). Despite the applause in the banker-dominated news media, it’s unlikely to work, and every month of delay only makes Greece weaker — less able to well-manage an … Read more
Athens to Madrid: back to you Following the June 17 elections, Greece seems set to be governed by a broad, awkward coalition formed by the center-right New Democracy party, its historical rival, the center-left Pasok, and several small parties. A consequence of this electoral outcome is that Greece is less likely to exit the eurozone … Read more
This weekend I have been thinking quite a lot about what the world is gonna look like on Monday, and have come to the conclusion that it won’t be that different from the way it was last Friday. The big news surprise of the weekend was in fact Greece related – since the national football team qualified for the … Read more
I guess we will never know whether or not Mariano Rajoy uttered the two magic words so effectively immortalized in song by Fontella Bass that Saturday afternoon in late May as he cruised down the Chicago River in what Spanish media called a “Love Boat” ride, but one thing certainly is now clear, Angela Merkel … Read more