Donald Trump is surging in the GOP primary polls, partly on the basis of a carefully crafted reputation for telling it as it is. Even rival Ted Cruz thinks Trump is “teriffic” and “brash,” saying, “I think he tells the truth.” But when he comes to China’s exchange rate policy, he is about as far … Read more
The dust has yet to settle after the referendum in Greece and making any longer term predictions is next to impossible, other than stating the obvious that the next days and weeks will bring capital controls and issuing of IOUs to meet public sector payments, similar in form to the ones that the State of … Read more
The Greek government has rejected the latest austerity and reform proposals from the EU, the ECB, and the IMF. It has declared a national referendum, scheduled for Sunday, and urges a “No” vote. “”We ask you to reject it with all the might of your soul, with the greatest margin possible,” says Prime Minister Alexis … Read more
A few weeks ago, I posted a critique of the alternate inflation measure devised by John Williams for his popular website ShadowStats.com. Several responders asked if I could also comment on Williams’ alternate unemployment rate. Here, reproduced with permission is the latest unemployment chart from ShadowStats. Like William’s inflation rate, his unemployment numbers run far … Read more
There is a growing interest in increasing the federal minimum wage in the U.S. and minimum wages at the state and city level (News and Observer). President Obama has already decreed a higher minimum for workers on Federal contracts, and he has proposed raising the Federal minimum from $7.25 to $10.10. Interest in the minimum … Read more
Everything has a cost, or so the story goes, especially time. In the Greek case we now know an additional item on the mounting bill: the country is back in recession. The issue is who – apart of course from the long-suffering Greeks themselves – will pay the extra costs of the latest imbroglio. The … Read more
Rare earth elements (REEs) are a group of seventeen elements with exotic names like neodymium and yttrium that are key ingredients in many high-tech products, many important for national defense. Imagine the consternation of Western officials when they woke up one morning in September 2010 to learn that China held a near-monopoly in the production … Read more
The general election campaign is in full swing in Britain, and it seems it’s all about austerity. From London, The New York Times reports that the campaign revolves around a single issue: the economy, and whether its rebound is the result of an austerity policy championed by the Conservative-led government of David Cameron, or in … Read more
Forecasting crude oil prices has been difficult. Forecast errors have been large, especially for the end of 2014, when typical forecasts were more than $40 per barrel too high. A panel of Wall Street Journal analysts forecast $94.65 per barrel, but the actual price was $53.27 per barrel. Forecasts implicit in oil futures contracts exhibited … Read more
It is hard to think of a website so loved by its followers and so scorned by economists as John Williams’ ShadowStats, a widely cited source of alternative economic data on inflation and other economic indicators. Any econ blogger who has ever written a line about inflation is familiar with ShadowStats. Time and again, readers … Read more