From Barclays, by way of Zero Hedge, we get this lovely decision tree showing possible outcomes for bondholders as Greece negotiates haircuts. Sigh. I miss the good old days when the insolvent said Fuck it!, declared bankruptcy, and left sorting it out to the BK judge or appointed special master. Hat tip ZH This post … Read more
Today Megan Greene (@economistmeg) wrote a rather insightful post linking this weekend’s German proposal to Greece’s eventual exit from the EMU – the leaked proposal is to (1) make Greek debt service a top priority, and (2) for Greece to rescind national fiscal sovereignty to the European level (links included in her post). At the … Read more
Today the ECB released its monthly data on monetary developments in the Euro area (EA), as measured by M3 and its components. The market usually focuses on the marketable assets portion of M3, M3-M2, as a representation of funding access – here’s an FT Alphaville post highlighting as much. In December 2011, M3-M2 declined 0.2% … Read more
According to the advance estimate released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. real GDP growth increased to a 2.8 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared to just 1.8 percent the previous quarter. It was the tenth consecutive quarter of growth since the end of the recession. Furthermore, the new … Read more
I spent the last couple of hours reading through the IMF’s Turkey Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation (and the accompanying documents). It is now exactly midnight, and the embargo on the document has been lifted, so I can publish this post:) Let’s cut down to the chase right away: I think the … Read more
In his General Theory, J.M. Keynes argued that substandard growth, financial instability, and unemployment are caused by the fetish for liquidity. The desire for a liquid position is anti-social because there is no such thing as liquidity in the aggregate. The stock market makes ownership liquid for the individual “investor” but since all the equities … Read more
Global stock markets are up about 10% since the beginning of the year, volatility has collapsed, US economic data continue to defy even the mild slowdown proponents and the ECB seems to have backstopped the European banking system. Yes, my dear reader. This is how quickly you move away from the apocalyptic abyss and back … Read more
Before starting on the subject of debt I wanted to make a quick reference to something sent to me by Charles Horner, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. I am glad to say that the overinvestment thesis is much more widely acknowledged today than it was even two or three years ago, but one … Read more
First things first. In the short run, the expansion of the social market economy is not on the agenda, because more urgent challenges must be addressed. However, in the longer run a kind of global social market economy seems to be the only sensible option for the future of mankind. A social market economy implies … Read more
