From Jan 1st - July 15th 2008, Oil moved from $96 - $146 while the US was in recession, big loser was retail $XRT off 22%
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Europe Channel: Latest Posts
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Don't Shoot the Messenger
For Whom the Bailout Tolls
“On an optimistic view, that a deal was struck implies that neither side was ultimately willing to risk a Greek exit because they recognise that no one fully understands all the ramifications of such a decision. Under this scenario, when pressure again builds, the authorities will do the same: let Greece remain in the euro, [...]
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The Wilder View
Does Latvia Give Us Any Clues?
Short answer: yes, as long as global trade growth is negligible. Over the weekend I came across a December CEPR paper about the Latvian economy. Authors Mark Weisbrot and Rebecca Ray highlight the Latvian experience with internal devaluation, which may prove to be a case study for the current Eurozone model of internal devaluation by the [...]
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Europe
It’s All Greek to Me
The Greek Prime Minister spoke of a choice between “austerity” and “disorder”. He got both, as the Greek Parliament based the European Union (“EU”) agreed to severe budget cuts and outside rioters protested the plan. In great dramas, sub-plots support the main story. The story of “hairshirts” (the Greek economic plan) and “haircuts” (the writedown [...]
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Europe
Europe Passes the Last Exit. A Great Crisis Lies Ahead.
Summary: Today Europe’s leaders have the last opportunity to avoid a great crisis. Will they continue to demand increasing austerity of the Greek people, pushing them further on a path devoid of hope and leading to poverty and political collapse? Or will they realize the folly of their actions? Contents The last exit before disaster [...]
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Europe
The Greek Syndrome
How much is enough, or how much is not enough? This is the question… The Greek drama evolves before our eyes like a slow motion train crash. On the one hand, there are the irrational expectations of the foreigners – be it the Eurozone finance ministers or the IMF, the private banks, driven by reckless [...]
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Europe
Iceland Upgrade Sure Makes Default Look Palatable
A friend commented to me when he saw the story that Iceland had been upgraded by Fitch, the ratings agency, that this “sure makes default look palatable”. Obviously, Iceland is not out of the woods yet but their relative success says there are other ways to get it done. The BBC reports: Iceland is safe [...]
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Europe
The Eurozone Is Not Ready Politically for a Default
On Tuesday night, I spoke to Amanda Lang and Kevin O’Leary about Greece. The question was whether they were going to default and leave the euro zone. My response is that the euro zone is not ready politically for a default and so I think some sort of bailout deal is likely over the short [...]
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Europe
The Swirling Vortex of Terror
With less than a month to go until Athens faces an amortization of €14.4 billion, the Greek government finally set the date for its “voluntary” debt swap. Bond holders will have three days, between March 8 and March 11, to tender their bonds. Although the prospectus and term sheet are yet to be released, creditors [...]
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Don't Shoot the Messenger
Quick Reality Czech
The Czech Republic is the first economy in central and eastern Europe to slide back into a full technical recession during the current downturn (evidently it is unlikely to be the last), with a 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter GDP decline in the last three months of 2011, after a 0.1 per cent drop in the previous [...]
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The Wilder View
Euro Area Portfolio Flows
Today the ECB released the Euro area balance of payments for December. This is a statistical release that is worthy of only the biggest data geeks – but it is quite interesting, especially in forming relationships between FX and capital flows. I’ll demonstrate what’s been going on in EA bond, equity, and money markets in one [...]
