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Emerging Market Channel: Latest Posts
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Emerging Markets
Why the Arab World Needs an Economic Spring
What strikes you on a trip to the Middle East is that everyone is talking politics—all of the time. That had been the case in countries like Lebanon where it is a national pastime, but it is a new phenomenon in countries across North Africa and the Gulf. Constitutions are being rewritten, political parties and youth [...]
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Asia
China – No Guarantee
In my debate with Andrew Batson in The Guardian in March, I noted that: There really are two related but distinct things people have in mind when they talk about a “hard landing” for China. The first is a rapid deceleration of GDP growth – below, say, 7%. The second is some kind of financial [...]
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Asia
China Real Estate Unravels
As a prelude to a broader analysis of China’s GDP, and the accuracy of its official GDP figures, I want to start by examining the national real estate statistics for the first four months of 2012. This discussion feeds into the broader GDP picture, but the property story that has been unfolding is important and [...]
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Emerging Markets
Africa and the Great Recession: Changing Times
In previous global downturns, sub-Saharan Africa has usually been badly affected—but not this time around. The world economy has experienced much dislocation since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. Output levels in many advanced economies still remain below pre-crisis levels, while unemployment levels have surged; growth in emerging market economies has slowed, [...]
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Asia
India on a Roll?
On Monday (7th May), India’s Finance Minister tried to undo the damage that his budget, presented in early March, had caused on investor sentiment towards India. More specifically, retrospective amendments to Indian tax laws and the implementation of General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) sowed confusion and led to heartburn. It was not so much that the [...]
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Asia
China Gives Up On Europe, Will Target Africa Instead
That China has finally given up on Europe is no news (granted, however, it will make it more complicated for various European newspaper to make up articles alleging China will bail out Europe now that this is no longer the case): after all even the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund has finally learned its lesson, and [...]
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Asia
Revisiting Predictions for China
In 2006 I started making a number of predictions based on what I thought was the necessary and logical development of China’s growth model. Some of these predictions seemed fairly outlandish, especially to China analysts – Chinese and foreign – who had very little knowledge of economic history or other developing countries, but many of [...]
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Emerging Markets
The Strong Real
Without structural reforms to increase productivity and a serious fiscal adjustment, foreign exchange measures will be tantamount merely to “anaesthesia without surgery”. Complaints about the BRL’s appreciation have recently been gaining strength. They have mobilized the whole government, even the President of the Republic. Should the strong BRL be combatted at any price? Even if [...]
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Asia
India: Treaties that Gave Away the Store
As India grapples with the Vodafone and 2G fallout, the Bilateral Investment Treaties it signed a few years ago are coming back to haunt it. On April 17, British telecom giant Vodafone issued a notice of dispute to the Indian government, as a first step towards launching investment arbitration proceedings under the India-Netherlands Bilateral Investment [...]
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Asia
India: Drama of the Outlook Downgrade
Here is the S&P announcement on downgrading the outlook on India’s lowest investment grade credit rating. By and large, I think it is a reasonable decision. I am not ‘shocked‘. It is interesting that the linked BS article talks of Indian FinMin officials expecting an upgrade. That shows how far they are out of touch [...]
