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Roubini Topic Archive: trendinggreek
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The European Debt Crisis in Charts
I present some basic statistics to highlight the problem in Europe. In short, there exists a deleterious positive feedback loop between overly leveraged banks and their sovereigns in key markets. Exhibit 1: European Banks are overly levered. Spanning 2006 through the latest data point, key European banking systems – France, Germany, and Italy – increased [...]
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G7 Expansion? Not Even Close. Canada’s in a League of its Own
The Q2 real GDP data across the G7 are now in, except for Canada who is always the last to release their statistics. We now know that the G7 expansion has been nothing short of pathetic. Why? Because among the G7, ONLY Canada – the G7 consists of the US, UK, Germany, France, Canada, Italy, [...]
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Global Slowdown Underway – It’s More than the Japanese Supply Chain Disruptions
The global economic rebound is slowing markedly. With a tightening bias in emerging markets and a US recovery that continues to disappoint, external demand for any country that ‘needs it’ – those countries mired in fiscal austerity without monetary autonomy, i.e. euro area countries – is decelerating precipitously. Exhibit 1: import demand for manufactured goods [...]
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Real Retail Sales in Europe: Will German Consumers Save the Day? Maybe, Perhaps
Retail sales in Germany and Spain were reported last week for the month of June. On a working-day and not-seasonally adjusted basis, real retail sales fell 7.0% on the year in Spain. In contrast, working-day and seasonally adjusted real retail sales surged over the month in Germany, 6.3%, and posted a 2.6% annual gain. But [...]
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Credit Growth in the Euro Area – Seriously, Where Is It?
Today the ECB released details on monetary aggregates for the euro area. According to the statement on the asset side of the consolidated balance sheet of the euro area monetary financial institutions (MFIs): the annual growth rate of total credit granted to euro area residents decreased to 2.6% in June 2011, from 3.1% in the [...]
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The Latest Eurozone Response: One Step Closer to the Crisis Point
Here on News N Economics, I’ve generally not commented on the politics of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Regular readers are well aware of my skeptical outlook on the growth prospects for countries forced into fiscal austerity amid piles of private-sector leverage, a slowing global recovery, and a central bank with a tightening bias. [...]
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It’s Wrong to Compare Italy to Japan
Reader Dilip pointed me to Paul Krugman’s article over the weekend, Italy Versus Japan. In it, Krugman (via commenters) asks why Italian debt is trading at 5.7% on the 10yr, while that in Japan is trading at 1.1% (as of July 19, 2011). The answer’s pretty simple: just 7% of Japan’s public debt is held [...]
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Why You Shouldn’t Get Too Excited About the 1.8% Increase in German Factory Orders
German factory orders increased rather sharply in May, 1.8% in volumes and on a seasonally adjusted basis. The impetus to industrial orders growth on the month was primarily German factories buying capital goods, +2.4%. Factory orders do lead economic activity, so German domestic demand is likely still plugging away. But that’s as good as it [...]
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Retail Sales and Fiscal Policy in Europe
In May retail sales in Spain fell 6.6% over the year and on a working-day adjusted basis. Retail sales in Spain haven’t posted positive annual gains since June 2010. In its own right, this is horrendous. Marshall Auerback is concerned, as he highlighted in an E-mail exchange: These declines in retail sales in Spain have [...]
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What Do You Want to Wager that the IMF’s a Bit Overly Optimistic on the Outlook for Greek Nominal GDP?
These jokers have no idea what they’re doing. The IMF has overshot the ex-post path of Greek nominal GDP in each and every one of their World Economic Outlook forecasts since April 2009. What do you want to wager that they’re wrong about 2011, too? And now they want more fiscal austerity… The French are [...]
