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Roubini Topic Archive: featured2
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Spanish Consumers AND Savers Take a Forced Siesta
Recently we saw retail sales figures come out of Spain, Germany, France, and Italy. Across Europe, the seasonally-adjusted pattern of real retail sales is diverging. The chart above illustrates the real seasonally-adjusted and working-day-adjusted (for Europe) level of retail sales across key countries in Europe and the US (for comparison). The raw data is indexed [...]
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What Do Spain and Vietnam have in Common?
What do Spain and Vietnam have in common? Roughly a 25% chance of defaulting over the next 5 years. That’s what the credit default swap market is telling us. Vietnam’s long-term rating is B1 by Moody’s, BB- by S&P, and B+ by Fitch (not that these ratings really ‘mean’ anything). Spain’s current rating is high [...]
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Will Someone Please Explain to Me Why the ECB Is Hiking in July
I’ve gotta say, I have absolutely no idea why the ECB is hiking. If I look at key monetary variables (forget about the real economic data for a minute), they should be on hold. (1) inflation expectations has dropped off precipitously across key countries in Europe, as measured by the 10-yr swap linker. One could [...]
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Little Evidence of Convergence Across the Euro Area 12 After Adopting the Euro
Eurostat released measures of annual per-capita GDP expressed in Purchasing Power Standards for the European Union. Purchasing power standards corrects for price differentials in nominal income and is useful for cross-country comparison (Eurostat data). Given the economic dispersion across Europe (a recent article highlighting this using Q1 GDP growth), I wanted to investigate ‘convergence’ among [...]
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“Survey Says”… German Growth Has Probably Peaked
This week further evidence has emerged of Germany’s slowing growth trajectory. At 4.9% annual growth (calendar-adjusted) and a tightening bias from the ECB, this was, of course, to be expected. Yesterday the Manufacturing May ‘Flash’ PMI by Markit Research highlighted, in my view, that sentiment is unlikely to remain at these absurdly elevated levels indefinitely, [...]
