We post the video of the great Randomized Experiment debate between Banerjee and Deaton http://t.co/Rnlcwtff
1 minute ago
-
New and improved capital loss data
World capital losses are rising. Nouriel Roubini expects $3 trillion in losses, while the IMF expects half that, $1.4 trillion. The Bloomberg data recently added insurer and government sponsored entity (GSE) losses to the list of bank and broker losses, rendering Roubini’s estimate a little less far-fetched.
Admittedly, the banks/brokers account for 73% of world capital losses, but that is not the whole story. As Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac report record third quarter losses and American Insurance Corporation writes down tens of billions, the reporting of GSE and insurer losses becomes increasingly important in gauging world capital losses.
-
Mass layoffs set to explode
More bad news: the 2008/2009 recession will be worse than the 2001 recession as measured by the number of firms that are cutting jobs in bulk, 50 or more employees. Headlines suggest that this labor contraction will be marked by widespread mass layoffs.
-
Melancholy about the economy defined
Last week I got really melancholic about the economy. You all may have noticed, as this post describes my new-found economic despair. As the credit crisis persists, the risk of a longer recession grows.
-
G20 Summit: Low expectations fulfilled
To be sure, there have been “global recessions.” The Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) seven major countries – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States – have jointly seen negative growth since the fourth quarter of 2007.
-
German outlook not good: Why did they wait so long for expansionary measures?
Not a good sign for Euro-zone growth in the third quarter. Its biggest economy – Deutschland – is expected to decline in the third quarter, following a -0.5% contraction in the second quarter. From Deutsche Welle: -
How high will the unemployment rate go?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that there is a lot of slack building in the economy: the October unemployment rate rose to 6.5% and the total number of jobs lost in 2008 grew to 1.2 million. The question is, for how long will the labor market contract (unemployment rises)? If the contraction is anything like the contraction in 1957-1958, the unemployment rate could rise to 9.5%. You thought that I would say 1982, right? Well, read on.
-
The FDIC reports 19 bank failures, but it’s really 16
According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) Failed Bank List, 19 banks have failed since the beginning of 2008; 32% of the bank failures occurred in October and November alone. However, this is a macro-economics blog (mostly), and macro-economics is the study of an economy as a whole, right? So as the Federal Reserve is approving applications for financial institutions to become bank holding companies, the net-bank failure list is shorter.
-
My faves for the day (11-13-08)
“What happens if the Big 3 go into Chapter 11?
-
It’s a good time to go to college; modern job market requires a BA
The labor market has been contracting for 10 consecutive months, where the payroll survey showed 1.2 million accumulated job loss and the household survey reported a surge in the unemployment rate to 6.5%. There is still momentum left in this contraction. If one loses his/her job, it may be a good time to go back to school for a Bachelor’s degree (BA); the modern job market is focused on workers with at least a BA.
-
Bring out your dead: European and U.S. auto industry bailouts
If the U.S. jumps off the bridge, will Europe follow? I guess that when it comes down to bailing out various production sectors – finance, auto – they will. From Deutsche Welle:
