Global PMIs and Fed Policy: They’re Linked
Today a host of global purchasing managers indices (PMIs) reiterated that the global economy is slowing….quickly.
Within 24 hours, China, the US, and the euro area all reported July PMIs falling toward the feared 50 (below which the manufacturing industry is contracting) – 50.7, 50.9, and 50.4, respectively. The UK PMI fell below 50 to 49.1 in July.
I would posit (and I believe that others have, too, like Edward Hugh) that this is directly related to Fed policy, specifically that of quantitative easing (QE).
The chart above illustrates the stated PMIs alongside the dates of a shift in the Federal Reserve’s QE policy. The shorter bars indicate those dates when the Fed ended QE and announced that it would reinvest maturing proceeds. On the other hand, the full bars illustrate the outset of QE.
Falling PMIs correlate with the end of QE. New QE correlates with a rebound in global PMIs. Given this correlation and the latest GDP release, I expect that talk of QE anew to surface.
This post originally appeared at News N Economics and is reproduced here with permission.
4 Responses to “Global PMIs and Fed Policy: They’re Linked”
Francine Jabs • September 17th, 2011 at 11:37 pm
I’m a long time watcher and I just considered I’d stop by and say hi for your very first time. I definitely appreciate your posts. Thanks
Brittaney Goranson • September 23rd, 2011 at 1:34 pm
Which was sort of inspiring! Completely unpredicted. Now I do know what I am going to do tomorrow 
Jake Gatesman • September 23rd, 2011 at 3:58 pm
I am a long time watcher and I just assumed I’d stop by and say hi for that 1st time. I definitely take pleasure in your posts. Many thanks
Leland Pyper • September 24th, 2011 at 4:02 am
Which was type of inspiring! Totally sudden. Now I realize what I am heading to do tomorrow
