GDP – A Disappointing Report
Yesterday I addressed the weak high-frequency indicators, specifically with respect to leading indicators of investment spending on equipment and software (durable goods). I argued that Q2 has not started off well, given that the real core orders for capital goods are down compared to the January to March average.
The BEA reported that Q1 2011 growth was 1.8% on a seasonally-adjusted and annualized basis, which is unrevised from the first release but the composition of spending changed somewhat. On the margin, Q1 2011 looks a bit less stellar (if you can call 1.8% annualized growth ‘stellar’) with consumption growth being revised downward to 2.2% over the quarter (previously 2.7%). Below is an illustration of the Q1 2011 contributions to GDP growth before 8:30am (1.75%) and after 8:30am (1.84%).
I think that the story is pretty simple: higher gasoline prices is even worse for consumption than initially anticipated, and inventory accumulation remains a large driver of economic performance.
It’s still way to early to predict what the entirety of 2011 will bring – the IMF forecasts 2.8% annual growth – but the bar’s rising on the quarterly growth trajectory to attain that level of growth. I suspect that forecasts will be revised downward.
Although this is purely conjecture since the April figures are only recently rolling out, Q2 2011 growth is unlikely to be much better. Investment spending is already looking weak for April. And consumption growth may be lackluster on auto sales (H/T spencer) – durables consumption accounted for half of the quarterly growth rate in consumption (0.66% contribution to total GDP quarterly growth). Government spending is a drag, so it’s up to net exports!
Let’s look at what’s happened to the spending components of GDP during the ‘recovery’.
The chart illustrates the cumulative growth in the spending components of GDP (ex inventories). Exports and imports have bounced back on a strong rebound in international trade, 21% and 20%, respectively. Domestic spending is being driven largely by investment spending: consumption is 4% above it’s lows, while fixed investment spending is up 8% (of course, the decline was much larger). Government spending is broadly unchanged (-0.2%) since the outset of the recovery.
There’s much more to this report, like profits and wages, so I’ll revisit if time permits.
This post originally appeared at Angry Bear and is reproduced here with permission.
2 Responses to “GDP – A Disappointing Report”
guapster • May 29th, 2011 at 8:04 am
This is very interesting. I wonder what the spending chart would have looked like in 2006 when Prof. Roubini began warning about the downturn in housing?
Consumption is higher than in October 2007. That seems odd since 9% of the population is still unemployed. And exports are way up and GDP is flat. Why is that? What are we exporting that doesn't raise the GDP?
Very thought provoking work. Looking forward to seeing more.
J. Guapster
BioBasics • May 31st, 2011 at 6:16 am
thanks for the data. I will definitly revisit this website once again.
