German Industrial Production: Hot or Not?
In Germany, industrial production increased 1.7% in August, or 10.7% over the year. The monthly surge beat expectations 3-times over (0.5% on Bloomberg).
According to MarketWatch:
After two rather disappointing months in the German industry, concerns about fading external demand and the sustainability of the German recovery surfaced. Today’s numbers should hush these concerns. Not only once, but for a longer period. Looking ahead, all available evidence points to a further strengthening of the German industry,” said Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING in Belgium.
To be sure, this report is consistent with a slew of recent German statistics beating expectations: the unemployment rate dropped to a near 20-year low; consumer confidence continues its fearless ascent; annual inflation is on an upward trend (as opposed to a downward one); and factory orders are increasing at an average 2% monthly rate, far above the pre-recessionary average (0.5%).
In contrast, the Ifo business climate survey, which breaks down expected and current conditions, portends a precipitous decline in annual industrial production activity in the next six months (see chart below).
The chart illustrates the 6-month lead of the trend in Ifo expectations index minus the trend in Ifo current index and the annual growth rate of industrial production. The series are highly correlated, and the expectations/current Ifo peaked in February and fell precipitously thereafter. This suggests that the pace of German industrial production should slow markedly in coming months, and possibly turn negative.
This is just one indicator, and may be a truly spectacular bit of data mining on my part. However, as external demand slows, the German economy, with its 46% of GDP export share, is openly exposed to its drag.
Originally published at News N Economics and reproduced here with the author’s permission.
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The study of History as context for politics and economics in the present day simply does not exist any longer. It is a loss for ourselves and our understanding of our own place in world history when we take these snapshots and are lazy to research and study why something is.
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@shaqpopcorn34 hahahahahahahah. dude, kidd was on the nets in 04. how would they get him and marion from the suns. someone needs to get their facts straight, and it aint me. kidd left the suns 2 years after marion was drafted.(which was 01) so um yeah man, get it straight, and yeah phil and kobe hvae had their disputes. but more recently phil asked kobe to stay, than to leave. case closed.
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I dont think Boston has quite as long a history of hating black dominicans as it does african-americans. These two are african-americans, Big Sloppy isnt. Not to say they arent also racist against the Sloppy, but it is certainly different. Just ask Bill Russell.
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