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The Wilder View

Industrial Production Coming Back, But….

Japan’s industrial production “surged” 1.9% in June for its fifth monthly gain. From MarketWatch:

Japan’s industrial production index rose a seasonally adjusted 1.9% on month in July, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said Monday. The result was above a 1.6% on-month gain expected by economists polled in a Dow Jones Newswires and Nikkei survey, though it was still 22.9% below the year-ago level.

Alongside Japan, many developed economies are showing some rebound in industrial production, a measure of physical output.

ip_chart1.PNG

Wow, Japan is really experiencing a rebound in factory output. However, looking back a little farther back in time, one really sees how low is industrial output. At the trough (February 2009 for Japan), production fell back to levels not seen since:

  • 1998 in the US
  • 1992 in the UK
  • 1997 in Canada
  • 1999 in Germany
  • 1987 in Italy
  • 1983 in Japan

ip_chart2.PNG

Yup, Japan’s down hard. It’s gonna take a huge push in demand to get production levels back.


Originally published at News N Economics and reproduced here with the author’s permission.

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Thomas Grennes is a professor of economics at the North Carolina State University and a former visiting faculty member at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga. His research has dealt with various aspects of international economics, including open economy macroeconomics, international finance, and international trade in agricultural products. Recent research topics have included macroeconomic aspects of the Great Moderation, offshore outsourcing, sovereign wealth funds, and the relationship between government debt and economic growth. Earlier work dealt with emerging market issues in the Baltic countries and Russia and trade and macro policies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic history topics include the Columbian Exchange of plants and animals, the effects on food markets of introducing mechanical refrigeration, and the integration of Tsarist Russia into the world grain market. When he is not involved in economics, he enjoys mountain hiking.

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