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Roubini Topic Archive: Northeast Asia
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China’s Unbalanced, Uncoordinated and Unsustainable Growth Model
I recently took two trips to China just as the government launched its 12th Five-Year Plan to rebalance the long-term growth model. My meetings deepened my own impression and the long-standing RGE view of a potentially destabilizing contradiction between China’s short- and medium-term economic performance: The economy is overheating here and now, but China’s overinvestment will prove deflationary both domestically and globally.
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Reuters – Japan to Ease Monetary Policy Further: Roubini
Reuters — Nouriel Roubini, best known for predicting the U.S. housing meltdown, said he expects Japan‘s central bank to ease monetary policy further by buying more government debt in the wake of the earthquake. Roubini, one of Wall Street’s most closely followed economists, said the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would have to set aside more [...]
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Roubini CNBC Interview on Japan and the Yen
CNBC — Roubini on Japan and the Yen (Click for Video [5:56]) CNBC — Nouriel Roubini, Chairman & Co-founder of Roubini Global Economics explains why he thinks the yen should weaken in the long run.
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Roubini Bloomberg Interview: Earthquake in Japan and the European Debt Crisis
Bloomberg — Roubini: ‘Worst Time’
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Roubini at Davos: G20 Has Become G-Zero
From The Telegraph:
Davos WEF 2011: Nouriel Roubini: G20 has become G-Zero
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The Confucian Consumer: Seven Reasons Why the Chinese Save, When They Really Should Be Spending
From Newsweek:The traditional Chinese model of economic growth required the U.S. and a few other countries to be consumers of first and last resort, spending more than their income and running ever-larger trade deficits—so that China could be the producer of first and last resort, spending less than its income and building ever-larger trade surpluses. That model is now challenged, if not altogether broken, because the excessive accumulation of private and public debt and deficit by the U.S. has forced a painful deleveraging: the overindebted U.S. consumer needs to spend and consume less, import less, and save more to reduce debt. Indeed, as the U.S. trade deficit shrinks, the Chinese trade surplus has been sharply shrinking, too. -
Global Risk and Reward in 2011
From Project Syndicate:
The outlook for the global economy in 2011 is, partly, for a persistence of the trends established in 2010. These are: an anemic, below-trend, U-shaped recovery in advanced economies, as firms and households continue to repair their balance sheets; a stronger, V-shaped recovery in emerging-market countries, owing to stronger macroeconomic, financial, and policy fundamentals. That adds up to close to 4% annual growth for the global economy, with advanced economies growing at around 2% and emerging-market countries growing at about 6%.
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Bloomberg Interview – Roubini Says India Growth May Beat China’s in 10 Years
By Kartik Goyal
India’s economy may expand more than China’s in the next 10 years if the world’s second- most populous nation lifts curbs on foreign investment in retail and boosts spending on roads and bridges, Nouriel Roubini said.
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Only the Weak Survive
Editor’s Note: This is a short excerpt of a much longer piece of research made available to RGE clients last week.
The risk of global currency and trade wars is rising, with most economies now engaged in competitive devaluations. All are playing a game that some must lose.
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Global Economy: Short on options
What is the outlook for the global economy? First, the recovery will be multi-speed: anaemic, sub-par, below-trend and U-shaped in the US and most other advanced economies, given a multi-year slog of private and public sector deleveraging that has barely begun; more robust and V-shaped in most emerging economies where potential growth is higher, debt and leverage in private and public sectors lower, and financial markets more robust.
