Very moody after Moody’s upgrade http://t.co/daqXn3sLGo in my latest @HDNER, I discuss #Turkey's 2nd IG,esp public&private debt
21 minutes ago
Roubini Topic Archive: Foreign and Domestic Political Risk
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RGE’s Wednesday Note – No Chance of a V-Shaped Recovery
The curtain has opened on Act Two of our “Year of Two Halves”—RGE’s theme since the end of 2009—with the slowdown forecast for H2 2010 getting here a bit earlier than expected. Growth in Q2 2010 registered a very weak 1.6%, revised down from an original estimate of 2.4%—a sharp slowdown from the 3.7% of Q1. This implies much weaker growth in H1 than even bearish forecasters had expected. Moreover, most of the growth was driven by a temporary inventory adjustment; final sales grew a mediocre 1.1% in Q1 and 1.0% in Q2.
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RGE’s Wednesday Note: The Sick Man Is Europe
Something other than leaves will fall in Europe this autumn. American attention, no doubt, will focus on Barack Obama’s date with an angry electorate this November. Yet across the pond, governments of the right, left and center in Europe appear ready to crumble, their positions eroded by a wave of austerity, high unemployment and government debt, plus a smattering of nasty corruption scandals.
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Sagging Global Growth Requires Us to Act
From the Financial Times:
Sagging Global Growth Requires Us to Act
By Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer
It looks as if the global economy is heading for a serious slowdown this year. Emergency austerity programmes in some countries will put a drag on growth. Inventory adjustments will run their course. The effects of tax policies that steal demand from the future – such as the US “cash for clunkers” scheme, tax credits for home buyers or cash for green appliances – will fizzle out. Labour market conditions will remain weak. The slow and painful deleveraging of balance sheets and income-challenged households, financial institutions and governments will continue.
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Interpreting China’s FX Regime Change
Please read RGE’s view of the significance of China’s announcement of more currency flexibility in the following RGE STRATEGY VIEW (clients only): ‘Yuan Upmanship’: Interpreting China’s FX Regime Change.
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Roubini and Bremmer on Global Economic Problems
From The Daily Beast — Roubini and Bremmer debate the real meaning of political and economic problems throughout the world—and whether the U.S. still has power. The latest installment in a continuing conversation.
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Roubini and Bremmer on Why We’re Still Doomed
The Dow fell below 10,000 in Tuesday trading following slumps in Europe and Asia but managed to close at 10,044. Leading economic thinkers Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer let readers in on their thoughts on why the economic crisis threatens the free market, who are the likely winners and losers, and why the U.S. might need another debacle before it changes.
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The Crisis Will Spread Without a Plan B
This piece was drawn from a more in-depth RGE Analysis: Greek Endgame: Time for ‘Plan B’From the Financial Times:The past weekend’s spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington focused on the Greek sovereign debt crisis – the first such crisis in living memory to concern a high-income country, and in the eurozone no less. Even more telling than the shift of focus from emerging markets is the widening divide in the views of those institutions and governments leading efforts to secure an orderly resolution. -
Roubini CNBC and Bloomberg Reports on Greece Crisis, European Union
Bloomberg — Roubini Interview on Greece Crisis, European Union (Click for Video [6:05] and Report)
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Roubini on Eurozone Panel at the Milken Institute Global Conference
Panel Discussion from the Milken Institute Global Conference: The Eurozone: Still One for All and All for One? Speakers: Bo Lundgren, Director General, Swedish National Debt Office; former Minister for Fiscal and Financial Affairs James McCaughan, CEO, Principal Global Investors Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics and International Business, Stern School of Business, New York University, [...]
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A Global Tsunami
An Israeli military strike in Iran would have an earthquake-like impact on today’s fragile global economy, and the potential for conflict is not entirely remote.
“Israel cannot live with a reality of a nuclear Iran threat,” says Israel’s Vice Prime Minister Silvan Shalom. On the other hand, Israel doesn’t refer explicitly to a possibility of attack. This ambiguity notwithstanding, Shalom states that Iran, which in his view continues its efforts to obtain nuclear capabilities, is “taking advantage of the weakness of the international community and of the ongoing struggle over hegemony in the Middle East between the United States [on one hand, and] Russia and China [on the other].”
