Category Archive: Uncategorized
-
The Global Economy on the Fly
In the last four weeks, I have traveled to Sofia, Kuala Lumpur, Dubai, London, Milan, Frankfurt, Berlin, Paris, Beijing, Tokyo, Istanbul, and throughout the United States. As a result, the myriad challenges facing the global economy were never far away. In Europe, the tail risk of a eurozone break-up and a loss of market [...]
-
Preparing for a Perfect Storm
The global economy this year will exhibit some similarities with the conditions that prevailed in 2012. No surprise there: We face another year in which global growth will average about 3 percent, but with a multispeed recovery—a subpar, below-trend annual rate of 1 percent in the advanced economies, and close-to-trend rates of 5 percent in [...]
-
Nouriel at Davos: Global Tail Risks Remain
Speaking with CNN’s Poppy Harlow at Davos, RGE Chairman Nouriel Roubini reiterated the biggest outlying risks to the global economy: U.S. fiscal woes, the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, a potential China hard landing, and geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Nouriel argued that the worst scenario need to materialize for a meaningful impact on global [...]
-
The Year Ahead in the Eurozone: Lower Risks, Same Problems
Financial conditions in the eurozone have significantly improved since the summer, when eurozone risks peaked because of German policymakers’ open consideration of a Greek exit, and the sovereign spreads of Italy and Spain reached new heights. The day before European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s famous speech in London in which he announced that the [...]
-
Nouriel on Bloomberg: U.S. Growth Will Be “Barely 1.7%” in 2013
On Bloomberg Surveillance, Nouriel said that U.S. growth would barely register 1.7% in 2013 and pointed to a high risk of the U.S. going over the fiscal cliff: “If we do so, the market reaction is going to force the two sides to reach an agreement.” Asked whether he’s bullish on the U.S., Nouriel responded, ”In [...]
-
Nouriel: Politics Will Define 2013
Speaking with Christine Freeland of the New York Times, Nouriel Roubini described the shift from a market focus on risk in 2012 to a worldwide recognition that political action—European elections, partisan U.S. fiscal battles, Middle East unrest, Chinese and Japanese political transitions—will shape the economic and financial landscape in 2013, contingent on unconventional policy responses [...]
-
Nouriel Explains More Positive Outlook on Greece to WSJ
The recent Greek debt buyback announcement and apparent softening of German rhetoric on the troubled eurozone (EZ) member-state represents a short-term boost to morale, Nouriel Roubini told the Wall Street Journal recently, but does not change fundamental flaws in the structure of the EZ, and within Greece’s economic model. Roubini had previously held that Greece [...]
-
The Year of Betting Conservatively
The upswing in global equity markets that started in July is now running out of steam, which comes as no surprise: with no significant improvement in growth prospects in either the advanced or major emerging economies, the rally always seemed to lack legs. If anything, the correction might have come sooner, given disappointing macroeconomic data [...]
-
Hard to be Easing
The United States Federal Reserve’s decision to undertake a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, has raised three important questions. Will QE3 jump-start America’s anemic economic growth? Will it lead to a persistent increase in risky assets, especially in US and other global equity markets? Finally, will its effects on GDP growth and equity [...]
-
Nouriel on Bloomberg: TBTF Banks Are Worse Than Before
This morning, Nouriel spoke on “Bloomberg Surveillance” about too-big-to-fail banks (TBTF): “It’s worse than before, because there has been massive consolidation of the banking system in the U.S. JPMorgan took over WaMu and Bear Stearns, Bank of America took over Country Wide and Merrill Lynch. We had banks that were TBTF before the crisis, and [...]
