Patrick Chovanec, associate professor at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management in Beijing, China stopped by the RGE offices in NY for a discussion on the likelihood of a hard landing in China and we consider the short and medium-term implications of policy adjustments, leadership transitions, and technology advancements. [22:20]
[2:25] – How much of a deceleration is to be expected?
[4:50] – Which policy route will China take and will they be able to achieve 8% growth for the year?
[8:00] – Will China be able to provide stimulus fast enough, or will this year’s growth be below consensus?
[10:20] – What will exchange rate policy look like and will we see an increase in trade tension?
[13:50] – A look at the medium term outlook and the leadership transition.
[16:00] – Will China avoid a hard landing?
[18:18] – With social and political instability spreading around the world often facilitated by social media and other new technology, what’s the risk to the system?