EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

Greece Should Default and Abandon the Euro

From the Financial Times:

Greece is stuck in a vicious cycle of insolvency, low competitiveness and ever-deepening depression. Exacerbated by a draconian fiscal austerity, its public debt is heading towards 200 per cent of gross domestic product. To escape, Greece must now begin an orderly default, voluntarily exit the eurozone and return to the drachma.

The recent debt exchange deal Europe offered Greece was a rip-off, providing much less debt relief than the country needed. If you pick apart the figures, and take into account the large sweeteners the plan gave to creditors, the true debt relief is actually close to zero. The country’s best current option would to reject this agreement and, under threat of default, renegotiate a better one.

Yet even if Greece were soon to be given real and significant relief on its public debt, it cannot return to growth unless competitiveness is rapidly restored. And, without a return to growth, its debts will stay unsustainable. Problematically, however, all of the options that might restore competitiveness require real currency depreciation.

The first of these options, a sharp weakening of the euro, is unlikely while the US is economically weak and Germany über-competitive. A rapid reduction in unit labour costs, through structural reforms that increased productivity growth in excess of wages, is just as unlikely. Germany took 10 years to restore its competitiveness this way; Greece can not wait in depression for a decade.

The third option is a rapid deflation in prices and wages, known as an “internal devaluation”. But this would lead to five years of ever-deepening depression, while making public debts more unsustainable.

Logically, therefore, if those three options are not possible, the only path left is to leave. A return to a national currency and a sharp depreciation would quickly restore competitiveness and growth, as it did in Argentina and many other emerging markets which abandoned their currency pegs.

Of course, this process will be traumatic. The most significant problem would be capital losses for core eurozone financial institutions. Overnight, the foreign euro liabilities of Greece’s government, banks and firms would surge. Yet these problems can be overcome. Argentina did so in 2001, when it “pesified” its dollar debts. America actually did something similar too, in 1933 when it depreciated the dollar by 69 per cent and repealed the gold clause. A similar unilateral “drachmatization” of euro debts would be necessary and unavoidable.

Major eurozone banks and investors would also suffer large losses in this process, but they would be manageable too – if these institutions are properly and aggressively recapitalised. Avoiding a post-exit implosion of the Greek banking system, however, may unfortunately require the imposition of Argentine-style measures – such as bank holidays and capital controls – to prevent a disorderly fallout.

Realistically, collateral damage will occur, but this could be limited if the exit process is orderly, and if international support was provided to recapitalise Greek banks and finance the difficult fiscal and external balance transition. Some argue that Greece’s real GDP will be much lower in an exit scenario than in the hard slog of deflation. But this is logically flawed: even with deflation the real purchasing power of the Greek economy and of its wealth will fall as the real depreciation occurs. Via nominal and real depreciation, the exit path will restore growth right away, avoiding a decade-long depressionary deflation.

Those who claim contagion will drag others into the crisis are also in denial too. Other peripheral countries have Greek-style debt sustainability and competitiveness problems too; Portugal, for example, may eventually have to restructure its debt and exit too.

Illiquid but potentially solvent economies, such as Italy and Spain, will need liquidity support from Europe regardless of whether Greece exits; indeed, a self-fulfilling run on Italy and Spain’s public debt at this point is almost certain, if this support is not provided. The substantial official resources currently being wasted bailing out Greece’s private creditors could also then be used to ring-fence these countries, and banks elsewhere in the periphery.

A Greek exit may have secondary benefits. Other crisis-stricken eurozone economies will then have a chance to decide for themselves whether they want to follow suit, or remain in the euro, with all the costs that come with that choice. Regardless of what Greece does, eurozone banks now need to be rapidly recapitalised. For this a new EU-wide programme is needed, and one not reliant on fudged estimates and phoney stress tests. A Greek exit could be the catalyst for this approach.

The recent experiences of Iceland, along with many emerging markets in the last 20 years, show that the orderly restructuring and reduction of foreign debts can restore debt sustainability, competitiveness and growth. Just as in these cases, the collateral damage to Greece of exit will be significant, but it can be contained.

Like a broken marriage that requires a break-up, it is better to have rules that make separation less costly to both sides. Breaking up and divorcing is painful and costly, even when such rules exist. Make no mistake: an orderly euro exit will be hard. But watching the slow disorderly implosion of the Greek economy and society will be much worse.

Nouriel Roubini is Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, professor at the Stern School, NYU and co-author of Crisis Economics. A longer version of this article can be found on the RGE website.


392 Responses to “Greece Should Default and Abandon the Euro”

shiv139September 19th, 2011 at 2:32 pm

I think a Greek default will be terrible for Germany. A strengthening Euro as weaker currencies exit, would weaken their competitiveness in export markets (possibly a + for US as relative competitiveness of US will rise). A severe contraction in Germany can only be terrible for Global growth. There are better solutions. Though I fear the options are not palatable for the strong Euro public at large, which does not appreciate that a Euro exit by Greece, will hurt them more than Greece in absolute terms. All options point to EZ needing to act as the United States of Europe; but they are not socially ready for it.

shiv139September 19th, 2011 at 3:40 pm

When EZ was formed, with the benefit of hindsight we know that Germany was the biggest beneficiary through added competitiveness as a result of the Euro. PIIGS probably saw their competitiveness harmed; they thought they gained from low borrowing costs, but we all know now that that was not the case; there was a greater cost to pay to come at a later time, which is now upon them. Something which was a net plus to EZ as a whole was more plus to one member and less plus or even negative to another.

shiv139September 19th, 2011 at 3:41 pm

In some ways strong Euro nations are obligated to rescue Greece; had EZ been a proper fiscal and political union, all members would have generated some tax revenues (State Taxes) independently of others, but they would also have benefited from total EZ (National Taxes) tax revenues – Part of EZ tax revenues would have been distributed to support weaker states. In some ways Greece, by sacrificing competitiveness for the benefit of the greater whole, deserves fairer treatment than is being handed out at this stage. What we are seeing now is a recognition event; it is recognition of the defects in EZ which need to be addressed through political and fiscal union. The alternative is a break up; and that will have a cost equivalent of the benefit gained through monetary union over several years – the problem being the cost will hit in a single time period instead over several years.

shiv139September 19th, 2011 at 3:41 pm

This is sort of similar to the US/China recognition event – China thought its treasuries in real terms were worth x, when in fact they were worth y. Simply put China gained enormously from a weak exchange rate and an open market in US. Part of those gains occured simply because a controlled economy interacted with a free economy. The perceived value of treasuries is not the real value, because the impact of artifical undervaluation of transactions is embedded in the value and ultimately that will be stripped out – if it all crystallizes in a single time period it will be devastating; but if it occurs over a period of time similar to the period over which the balances were accumalated, it will be okay.

fanofedwardSeptember 20th, 2011 at 9:00 am

Thank God somebody talking straight. Greece should leave the Euro and it will benefit them enormously in the medium term. Short-term it will be painful but it will be shortlived. The biggest loser will be Germany (in the new strong euro) who will experience exchange rate pressures similar to Switzerland. This is supported by endless real life examples, witness Iceland 3 yrs ago. It defaulted and restructured and now things are looking up. Simple economics. Politicians, please stop living in denial. Politicians will be publicly declaring the solvency of Greece the day prior to default. Where is your credibility??

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Otaviano Canuto

Otaviano Canuto is Senior Advisor on BRICS Economies in the Development Economics Department, World Bank, a new position established by President Kim to bring a fresh research focus to this increasingly critical area. He also has an extensive academic background, serving as Professor of Economics at the University of Sao Paulo and University of Campinas (UNICAMP) in Brazil.

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