Archive for May, 2011
Much Ado About Relatively Little: Contagion Risks From an Orderly Greek Debt Restructuring Are Modest, Contained and Manageable
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The ECB and other commentators have raised the specter that a debt restructuring in Greece would lead to massive and destructive contagion to financial markets, banks and financial institutions and other EZ sovereigns that would in turn lead to financial disaster. Those fears have now led to increasingly shrill warnings, despite their empirical [...]
From Project Syndicate:
By Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm
The countries known collectively as the PIIGS – Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain – are burdened with increasingly unsustainable levels of public and private debt. Several of the worst-hit – Portugal, Ireland, and Greece – have seen their borrowing costs soar to record highs in recent weeks, even after their loss of market access led to bailouts financed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Spanish borrowing costs are also rising.
Is high inflation the desirable way to reduce unsustainable debt burdens, and are policy makers likely to take that option? In a recent note with Arnab Das, “Honey I Shrunk the Gross National Debt!,” we discussed the various options—growth, savings, inflation, reduction/ restructuring—available to resolve high and unsustainable debt problems. In this note, I will [...]
CNBC –’Broader Picture’ Shows Jobless Up, Economy Down: Roubini
By Jeff Cox
LAS VEGAS – The US faces another year of rising unemployment and subpar growth as hopes for a recovery give way to a global slowdown, according to economist Nouriel Roubini.
The jobless rate, which recently grew to 9 percent, is likely headed for 9.8 percent in a year while economic growth will be less than 2 percent, he said.
My recent trip to Lisbon and policy meetings suggest a very fragile political and economic/financial outlook for Portugal. The election result may confirm the current political stalemate, leading to a center-right government with a very thin majority or a grand coalition. Read the rest of my analysis in my RGE paper: Portugal: Policy Postcard From [...]
We are still emerging from the Global Crash of 2008 and the great leveraged real estate bubble that accelerated during the last decade in the United States and spread around the world. Unsustainable surges in public debt, deficits and borrowing costs accompany the recovery and threaten to undermine it for various reasons in many afflicted [...]
My Profile and Interview with The Independent – Nouriel Roubini: ‘We Haven’t Seen the Last of Financial Crises’
He is the economist they call ‘Dr Doom’. But if Nouriel Roubini is pessimistic, it’s for good reason. Sean O’Grady meets him
Opposite the suite of offices held by Roubini Global Economics in London is the Shaftesbury Theatre, currently host to the illusionist and “mind reader” Derren Brown’s stage spectacular Svengali. So it seems appropriate I should meet the supposedly sinister and manipulative Nouriel Roubini, the “Dr Doom” of global economics, in such surroundings.
Thinking Globally With Nouriel Roubini – The Milken Institute Global Conference
- Nouriel Roubini, Chairman and Co-Founder, Roubini Global Economics; Professor of Economics and International Business, Stern School of Business, New York University