RGE 360

Author: RGE Analyst Team  ·  November 19th, 2010  ·  260026http%3A%2F%2Fwww.economonitor.com%2Fnouriel%2F2010%2F11%2F19%2Frge-360%2FRGE+3602010-11-19+10%3A58%3A41RGE+Analyst+Teamhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.economonitor.com%2Fnouriel%2F2010%2F11%2F19%2Frge-360%2F › Share This Print

Here is this week’s RGE 360, our Friday morning look at the week ahead in the global economy and our weekly review of the best recent content from Roubini.com.

• NATO holds summit in Lisbon, Portugal (November 19-20). (NATO’s Future Role)
• U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke, ECB President Trichet et al. speak at the Sixth ECB Central Banking Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.
• Russia releases consumer data for October. (Is Russian Household Consumption Losing Steam?)
• Brazil reports job creation for October. (How Fast Is Brazil Decelerating in H2 2010? What About 2011?)
• Argentina releases economic activity index for September, reports industrial production for October. (Argentina Macro View: Is Economic Activity Stabilizing?)
• Colombia announces monetary policy decision. (Will Colombia’s Central Bank Cut Rates?)

• Moldova holds parliamentary elections.

• Thailand reports Q3 GDP, trade balance for October. (Did Thai GDP Growth Brush Off Political Turmoil? and Thailand Trade Balance: Are Exports Slowing?)
• Malaysia reports Q3 GDP. (Private Consumption Drives Malaysia’s Q2 Growth to 8.9%: What Are the Implications?)
• Mexico reports Q3 GDP. (How Fast Will Mexico’s Economy Decelerate in H2 2010? What About 2011?)
• Morocco reports October CPI. (Morocco’s Central Bank Continues to Keep Interest Rates on Hold)

• Japanese banks closed for Labor Thanksgiving Day holiday.
• U.S.: Federal Open Market Committee releases November 3 meeting minutes. (QE2: $600 Billion LSAP for Now; Fed Leaves Door Open for More if Needed)
• U.S. reports preliminary Q3 GDP, existing home sales for October. (U.S. GDP Grows 2% in Q3; Final Sales Grow an Abysmal 0.6% and U.S. Pending Home Sales and Mortgage Applications Point to Soft Sales)
• Canada reports October CPI, retail sales for September. (Canadian Core CPI Eases Further in September: Justifying the BoC Decision to Remain on Hold? and Canada’s Consumption Set to Moderate Despite Rebound in August Retail Sales)
• Eurozone, Germany and France release manufacturing and services PMIs for November. (Eurozone Grows 0.4% in Q3, in Line With Expectations)
• Germany releases Q3 GDP breakdown. (German Economic Recovery Loses Momentum in Q3, Growing 0.7% q/q)
• Norway reports Q3 GDP. (Norway Macro View: Growth to Slow Down?)
• Poland announces monetary policy decision. (Polish Monetary Policy: Rate Hike on the Way?)
• Taiwan reports industrial production for October. (How Much Will Growth Slow in Taiwan?)
• Brazil reports current account, foreign investment for October; tax collection for September. (What Is the Path of Brazil’s External Accounts and Debt Dynamics?)
• Argentina reports trade balance, unemployment rate for October. (Argentina’s External Account Dynamics)
• Mexico reports retail sales for October. (How Fast Will Mexico’s Economy Decelerate in H2 2010? What About 2011?)
• South Africa reports Q3 GDP. (South Africa’s Q2 2010 Growth: Recovery Losing Steam?)

• U.S. reports durable goods orders, personal income and outlays for October. (U.S. Durable Goods Orders Confirm Slowing Trajectory of Investment Growth and U.S. Retail Sales Jump on Autos; Gain in Core Retail Sales Slows)
• UK reports preliminary Q3 GDP. (UK Q3 Growth at 0.8% q/q; Stronger Than Expected)
• Germany: Ifo releases business climate, current assessment and expectations surveys for November. (Rising Business Confidence Confirms Robustness of German Recovery and Germany: Economic Expectations Rise in November After Six-Month Decline)
• Venezuela reports unemployment rate for October. (Is the Worst of the Recession Over for Venezuela?)
• Mexico reports trade balance for October. (Are Mexico’s External Accounts Improving? What About Export Diversification?)
• South Africa reports October CPI. (South African Inflation Continues to Fall: More Easing Ahead?)

• U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving Day holiday.
• Iceland reports November CPI. (Iceland: Central Bank Continues Rate Cuts in November)
• Indonesia hosts 26th ASEAN-Japan Forum (November 25-26).
• Japan reports October CPI. (How Severe Is Deflation in Japan?)
• Hong Kong reports trade balance for October. (Hong Kong’s Exports Decelerate in September: Global Headwinds?)
• Brazil reports unemployment rate for October. (Is Brazil’s Labor Market Performing Better Than Expected?)
• Mexico reports current account for Q3, unemployment rate for October. (How Fast Will Mexico’s Economy Decelerate in H2 2010? What About 2011? and Are Mexico’s External Accounts Improving? What About Export Diversification?)

• U.S.: NYSE early close, SIFMA recommends early close.
• Germany reports preliminary November CPI, retail sales for October. (German Inflation Holds Steady in October and German Consumer Confidence Indicates Further Domestic Demand Stabilization)
• Lithuania reports Q3 GDP (second estimate). (Lithuania Macro View: Disappointing Q3 2010 GDP Growth Slows the Recovery)
• Singapore reports industrial production for October. (Pick-Up in Singapore’s September IP Belies Slowdown Ahead)
• Argentina releases budget balance for October. (How Sustainable Is Argentina’s Fiscal Position?)
• Peru reports Q3 GDP. (What Is Peru’s GDP Growth Outlook for 2010?)
• Mexico announces monetary policy decision. (What Is Mexico’s Monetary Policy Outlook for 2010?)

• December 3: Discussion with the IMF on European Economies
• December 14: RGE 2011 Outlook Call with Nouriel Roubini and RGE Team
• December 16: Asset Allocation in 2011 for Pensions and Family Offices Event at RGE’s NY Office with Nouriel Roubini and Gina Sanchez, Director of Equity and Asset Allocation Strategy, along with three guest panelists specializing in Credit Funds, Equities Funds, and Event Driven Funds – clients only, call your account representative.
• December 17: RGE 2011 Eurozone Outlook Call with RGE Analysts
• January 10: RGE 2011 Latin America Outlook Call with RGE Analysts
• January 11: RGE 2011 Asia Outlook Call with RGE Analysts
• January 12: RGE 2011 Middle East and Africa Call with RGE Analysts

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• Asia Focus Q3 Sets the Stage for Gradual Slowdown in Asia by Michael Manetta, Mikka Pineda and Adam Wolfe
• The Long and Short of It: China’s Political Economy Is Shifting by Adam Wolfe
• An Orderly Market-Based Approach to the Restructuring of Eurozone Sovereign Debts Obviates the Need for Statutory Approaches by Nouriel Roubini
• North America Focus U.S.: Lower Chance of ‘W,’ But Long Road to Recovery; Canada: Trade Balance Stays in Red by Prajakta Bhide, Christian Menegatti, Tetiana Sears and Rachel Ziemba
• LatAm Focus Week Ahead (Week of November 15, 2010) by Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado
• Europe Focus UK Inflation and QE2; Italy’s Jobless Recovery? by RGE’s Europe Analyst Team
• EMU Periphery: Short-Term Sovereign Risk Amid Long-Term Restructuring Plans by Elisa Parisi-Capone

• Irish Woes Should Speed Europe’s Default Plan by Nouriel Roubini
• CNBC Interview – Roubini: ‘Inflation Is Not a Problem’
• Roubini CNBC Interview: Global Tensions Getting Worse

• RGE’s Wednesday Note – Shifting Politics, Tightening Policies in China by Adam Wolfe
• Effects of the Strong Loonie by Tetiana Sears
• Italy: Jobless Recovery? by Mark Willis
• A Few Wild Cards in the Myanmar Junta’s Stacked Deck by Julie Ginsberg

• Time for a Financial Transaction Tax by Roberto Tamborini
• The Gold Standard Is No Silver Bullet by James Picerno
• Shiller: Bailouts, Reframed as ‘Orderly Resolutions’ by Mark Thoma
• Robert Shiller Advocates and Engages in Newspeak and Dubious Analysis in NYT Piece by Yves Smith
• S&P 500’s Irrelevance as a Performance Benchmark and Its Technical Market Condition by J Clinton Hill

• G-20 Rumble by Walter Molano
• Competitive Devaluations and Related Issues by Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla
• Structural Reform Is More Powerful than Fiscal or Monetary Policy by Joseph Mason
• Losing the Battle, Winning the War? by Menzie Chinn
• G20: Profound and Complete Disappointment for the U.S. Treasury by Simon Johnson
• The Failure of the G-20 Summit by Robert Reich
• Previewing Obama’s European Trip #2: U.S.-European Economic Relations by Carlo Bastasin
• The Debt Commission Is Right: Tax Reform Is the Path to Growth-Friendly Fiscal Consolidation by Edwin G. Dolan
• More About Rising Food Prices (Perhaps One of the Big Trends of the Next Decade) by Fabius Maximus
• About the Coming Large Rise in Food Prices by Fabius Maximus

• Why the Lame Duck Congress Must Extend Jobless Benefits for Hard-Hit Families but Not Tax Cuts for the Rich by Robert Reich
• Two Regions Diverging, Tearing the World Apart. Birth Pangs for a New Geopolitical Order by Fabius Maximus
• No Fix for U.S. Fiscal Policy Without New Rules by Edwin G. Dolan
• The Pot Again Calls the Kettle Red: Republicans, Democrats, the Fed and QE2 by Jeffrey Frankel
• Quick Note on Retail Sales by Tim Duy
• 22 Luminaries (and Dick Bove) Sign Open Letter to Fed Demanding End of QE2 by Tyler Durden
• Will the Fed Scale Up QE2? by Tim Duy
• Deficit Problems? You Fix it! by Barry Ritholtz

• What Happens if Chinese Growth Slows? by Michael Pettis
• Japanese Q3 2010 GDP Growth Hit It Out of the Ballpark But Set to Fall Flat Next Quarter by Rebecca Wilder

• Venezuela’s GDP to Remain Negative in Q3 by Juan Lorenzo Maldonado
• Chilean Macroeconomic and Financial Outlook: The Emerging Markets Policy Response to the Tsunami of Capital Flows by Guillermo Le Fort
• Mexico’s Central Bank May Cut Rates or Sell More Dollar Options by Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado

• Ireland Brinksmanship with the EU: Slow Motion Bank Run May Be Giving Government Leverage by Yves Smith
• The Debt Problems of the European Periphery by Anders Aslund, Peter Boone and Simon Johnson
• … Or Maybe the ECB Isn’t the Point at All by Richard Smith
• It’s Not About Ireland Anymore by Simon Johnson
• ECB into the Breach? by Richard Smith
• Ireland: The Battle Against “Markets” by Rebecca Wilder
• Capital Punishment on the Turkish Banks by Emre Deliveli

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