Nouriel Roubini Tea with The Economist Video on U.S. and Global Economy Outlook
Nouriel Roubini on Systemic Risks: U.S. financial reform, the risk of deflation in advanced economies, and China’s growth.
All rights reserved, Roubini GlobalEconomics, LLC
5 Responses to “Nouriel Roubini Tea with The Economist Video on U.S. and Global Economy Outlook”
Hi Professor..You say that China needs to convert to more domestic personal consumptive spending. That may be true but this is not going to happen overnight. The Chinese as I understand them have virtually no governmental services such as health care or SS or Medicare and they have been prevented from having large families so the Chinese people have a propensity to save for uncertainty rather than spend. I am not sure how the Chinese government gets the people there to become more like Americans.We, the USA, have had a unique stature in the world with our big homes and mostly secure lifestyles. We not only had places to store all the stuff we wanted but it was not at risk of being taken from us. Europeans have the security but not the space. No where else in the world has this been so.. Thus, Americans made great consumers of everything… Freedom to buy with endless debt offers. Nirvana of consumption.Now that we have spent our future, even our appetite for spending is failing and as we get older, our tolerance for risk is diminishing. Thus there has been a huge paradigm shift and even you seem to have missed it..Consumption is diminishing, except for food and energy. I don’t see any way to bring the US’s consumptive behavior back until the US has written off/down a majority of its debt that was spent on consumption and based on irrelevant assets and inflation which was dependent upon ever increasing debt. Get over it. That paradigm is dead or dying and can not be brought back to life. And a new paradigm will come once we have thoroughly discarded this last one. Greed is not good and neither is excessive debt for consumption rather than productive enterprise.Thus, until debt is again very affordable in terms of real after tax disposable incomes, things are going to continue to deteriorate and there is NOTHING that the government(s) can do about it…And borrowing MORE and MORE is not a fix. All it does is try and kick a can down a road to nowhere. Wasting precious resources fighting the last war after it has been lost.
Dear Sir,Having already read books by Prof. John Kay, Philip Augar, Joseph Stiglitz, George Soros and others on the financial crisis, I am writing to say that Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm have made the most material contribution to this debate and to mapping a practical way forward.From the standpoint that we must take in Scotland – in the absence of economic powers – we too want to see those with the power to manage aspects of the global economy do that as well as humanly possible.Meanwhile, we continue simultaneously to do all we can to join that club.In thinking about that and the actions that Nouriel and Stephen suggest, it seems to me that the process would be very much enriched if we were to lean heavily on other disciplines and other skills to reach the better and more robust scenario that we all want.By that I mean if we were to factor in:- Systems Thinking – the challenging of orthodoxies and the constant striving for a stable and improving system as pioneered in industry- Conflict Resolution of the type advocated by Roger Fisher, William Ury and Kenneth Cloke – that allows for big egos and multiple truths to co-exist in complex systems- Causal Loop Mapping – to allow people to see complex cause and effect more clearly- Moral Philosophy and Altruism – to restore the potential for Intrinsic motivation and hence help end “compensation” that overcompensates, distorts and heightens moral hazards- The work of Chris Argyris – who identifies “Defensive Reasoning” and how we can overcome that and start to work on worthy common causes- The work of the former Shell Scenario Planner – Adam Kahane – who shows how we can bring the power of public opinion, logic and emotion to help the process and the ability of Government to “do the Right Thing”………..then we could make material progress and maintain standards and progress forever.Please pass my regards to Nouriel and Stephen – and let them know they will always have a warm welcome to Scotland.RegardsJim MatherMinister for Enterprise, Energy & Tourism
Implicit in your analysis is a generalized goal of fairness facilitated by a level-playing-field.To see how the system of money creation stacked against ScotLand and how vulnerable it is, please read The Web of Debt by Ellen Brown.My guess is that you will see this problem artificial scarcity in a whole new light and concern yourself with self-reliance rather than social engineering a patchwork solution.
Say what?We can hardly train an engineer to build a proper highway, let alone sell social engineering concepts to our mass of ignorant and apathetic voters.Try making that pitch on FOX TV if you want to see defensive reasoning in action.Independent Contractor
a word in your last sentence is the “usually preferred” solution……………….war……………..you’re subliminally trying to warn us??