RGE 360
Here’s this week’s RGE 360, our Friday morning look at the week ahead in the global economy and our weekly review of the best recent content from Roubini.com.
THE WEEK AHEAD
This weekend, April 24-25:
- World Bank and International Monetary Fund hold spring meetings in Washington. (See RGE Critical Issue: The Role of the IMF in the Financial Crisis)
- April 25: Second round of Parliamentary elections takes place in Hungary. (See RGE Critical Issue: Hungary Politics: Fidesz Party Wins Landslide Victory in First-Round Vote)
Monday, April 26:
- United States: Draft bill limiting greenhouse gas emissions unveiled in Washington DC. (See RGE Critical Issue: EPA Rulings on CO2: Is Regulation the Right Answer?)
Tuesday, April 27:
- United States: Consumer confidence statistics published. (See RGE Critical Issue: Any Sign of Improving Confidence Among U.S. Consumers?)
- Barack Obama hosts first meeting of National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected to testify before the commission. (See RGE Critical Issues: Are the U.S. Administration’s Fiscal Consolidation Plans Adequate? and Is the U.S. Fiscal Deficit Reaching Unsustainable Levels?)
- France: Results of INSEE consumer confidence survey released. (See RGE Critical Issue: French Retail Sales Continue Downward Trend in February: Is the Economic Recovery Losing Momentum?)
- IMF meets to discuss Pakistan’s economic performance and considers the release of a fifth loan tranche of US$1.2 billion. (See RGE Critical Issues: Will Additional IMF Assistance Reduce Pakistan’s Financing Pressures? and Are Risks to Pakistan’s Current Account Re-emerging in 2010?)
- IMF mission arrives in Romania for ten days to review the country’s €20 billion aid package. (See RGE Critical Issue: Romania Politics: Protests over IMF – Imposed Cuts Pressure the Government)
Wednesday, April 28:
- United States: Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) announces interest rate decision. (See RGE’s Q2 2010 United States Outlook and RGE Critical Issues: When Will the Fed Hike Rates? and How Will the Fed Exit Loose Monetary Policy?)
- Australia: Q1 consumer price index published. (See RGE’s Q2 2010 Australia Outlook and RGE Critical Issue: Is Australian Inflation Tame Despite Economic Resilience?)
- South Africa: March Consumer Price Index published. (See RGE’s Q2 2010 South Africa Outlook and RGE Critical Issue: South African Inflation Falls Back Below Target)
- United Kingdom: Reuters releases results of a poll of economists’ forecasts for the next Bank of England interest rate decision. (See RGE’s Q2 2010 United Kingdom Outlook and RGE Critical Issue: UK Inflation Fell Below Expectations in February)
Thursday, April 29:
- Germany: Unemployment data released. (See RGE’s Q2 2010 Germany Outlook and RGE Critical Issue: German Unemployment Declines in March: A Sooner-Than-Expected Turnaround?)
- Brazil: Unemployment data released. (See RGE’s Q2 2010 Brazil Outlook; RGE’s LatAm Focus: New Forecast for Brazil After Pleasant Surprises and RGE Critical Issue: Is Brazil’s Labor Market Performing Better than Expected?)
Friday, April 30:
- United States: Q1 GDP figures released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (See RGE’s Q2 2010 United States Outlook and RGE Critical Issues: Inventory Cycle Pushes U.S. Growth to 5.6% in Q4; Final Sales Still Sluggish and How Strong Will U.S. Economic Growth Be in 2010?)
- Bank of Japan holds monetary policy meeting. (See RGE’s Q2 2010 Japan Outlook and RGE Critical Issue: Quantitative Easing Returns to Japan: A Losing Battle Against Deflation?)
- Eurostat releases Flash Estimate of eurozone inflation for April. (See RGE’s Q2 2010 Eurozone Outlook and RGE Critical Issue: How Serious is the Risk of Deflation in the Eurozone?)
- Eurostat releases eurozone unemployment data. (See RGE’s Q2 2010 Eurozone Outlook)
- United Kingdom: Prime Ministerial debate on the economy takes place. (See RGE Critical Issues: UK Edges Out of Recession in Q4 2009 and Date Announced for UK General Election: What Will the Future Hold?)
- China: Foreign leaders attend the opening ceremony of the Shanghai World Expo. (See RGE Critical Issue: Will Shanghai Gain from the World Expo?)
RGE WEEKLY ROUNDUP
Here is a look at the best of this week’s offerings from Roubini.com and RGE EconoMonitors:
RGE Analysis:
- LatAm Focus: What’s Coming Up? (Week of April 19, 2010) by Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonad
- Global Overview: Q2 2010 Outlook by RGE Analysts
- Global Outlook Update: Q2 2010 by RGE Analysts
- United States: Q2 2010 Outlookby Prajakta Bhide, Christian Menegatti and Arpitha Bykere
- A Modern Greek Tragedy May Soon Turn Into a Broader PIIGS Disaster by Nouriel Roubini
- LatAm Focus: Mockus Gains Ground in Colombia Polls by Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado
- Explaining Turkey’s Jobless Growth Conundrum by David Rogovic and Murat Vardal
Nouriel Roubini’s Global EconoMonitor
- The Debt Death Trap by Nouriel Roubini
- A Global Tsunami by Nouriel Roubini, Camilla Webster and Shai Baitel
- PBoC Might Guide Interbank Rates Up, Still Not Tightening by Adam Wolfe
- RGE’s Wednesday Note – Reading the Tea Leaves for Q2 and Beyond by Christian Menegatti, Rachel Ziemba, and Nouriel Roubini
- Market Snapshot: U.S. Stocks Mixed on Fiscal and Regulatory Concerns (Daily) by Tetiana Sears
- Market Snapshot: No Surprises in Financial Reform Help Lift U.S. Stocks by Tetiana Sears
- SEC Charges Goldman with Fraud by James Kwak
- SEC Sues Goldman for Fraud by Yves Smith
- The Only Way to Prevent Another Bailout of Wall Street Is to Cap the Size of Wall Street’s Big Banks by Robert Reich
- Bill Clinton: Derivatives? My Bad… by Barry Ritholtz
- Goldman Sachs: Too Big to Obey the Law by Simon Johnson
- Pitchforks, Vampire Squids, and Simon Johnson’s Robespierre Moment by Edward Harrison
- Mitch McConnell Gets It Wrong by Robert Reich
- Liquidity Gauge: AAII Asset Allocation Survey by Barry Ritholtz
- SEC/CDO Litigation: Why Aren’t the Collateral Managers Being Sued Too? by Tom Adams and Yves Smith
- Break Up the Banks by Simon Johnson
- Why Did Bad Bonds Get Good Ratings? by Mark Thoma
- Is Goldman’s Hardball Stance a Big Mistake? by Yves Smith
- The Two Issues to Watch on Financial Reform by Mark Thoma
- Blankfein: Suit Against Goldman Will “Hurt America” by Yves Smith
- High Tide for the Financial Sector? by Macro Man
- What Did Robert Rubin Think About Derivatives? by James Kwak
- Rosenberg: Stocks 35% Overvalued by Edward Harrison
- Kyrgyzstan: Business, Corruption and the Manas Airbase by John Daly
- SEC Charge Against Goldman Has Volcanic Impact on Energy Markets by Darrell Delamaide
- The Importance of NBER Announcement Dates by Joseph Mason
- IMF Sees Financial Risks Still Elevated by Jose Vinals
- World Faces Serious New Economic Challenges by Olivier Blanchard
- An Auspicious Sign: the Consumer (for Now) Is Back by Rebecca Wilder
- The Politics of the Goldman Fraud Case by Edward Harrison
- So the Senate Rebukes the VAT for What Exactly by Rebecca Wilder
- The Sweet Spot by Tim Duy
- More on Mortgage Delinquencies & Retail Spending by Barry Ritholtz
- The Administration’s February Forecast Compared to Current Expectations by Menzie Chinn
- Jobless Claims Fall, but the Threat of Going Nowhere Fast Still Looms by James Picerno
- Was Greece Rescue Futile and Is Portugal Next? by Yves Smith
- Growth Surprises and Drivers Are Changing in Eastern Europe by Marcus Svedberg
- Do I See Movement in the Greek Trenches? by Edward Hugh
- China’s Recent Trade Deficit: Is What You Yuan What You’re Gonna Get? by Edward Hugh
- Emerging Market Countries and the Crisis: How Have They Coped? by Reza Moghadam
- Chinese Savings and the Wealth Effect by Michael Pettis
- Currency Futures: An Example of How India Changes by Ajay Shah
- Argentina: Reopening the Exchange by Walter Molano
Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor
- How Quickly Will China Move? by C. Fred Bergsten
- Renminbi Undervaluation: Any Way You Look at It by Arvind Subramanian
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6 Responses to “RGE 360”
blindman • April 24th, 2010 at 4:42 pm
http://www.stockrants.com/forum/max-keiser/4285-max-keiser-athens-international-radio-23-april-2010-a.html.” i’ll tell ya exactly what is going to happen. in 5 years the top.1 % of the population will own 99% of the wealth and the 99%of the population will live in abject poverty. greece willlook like saudi arabia.” m.k..or words like that. coming to a theater near you. they willcall it the rule of law and recovery..this is what happens when you let financial terroristsexecute their plans with assistance from your politicalparties. they turn populations into slave work camps.and unknowingly. it’s all so unrecognizable..and seriously, are the republicans in this land reallydenying that financial reform is called for in the interest ofsurvival? they are probably just milking lobbyists for excessivegraft and their fair share of the bailout treasure. who couldblame them for having such acute and astute political instincts and timing..what an intellectual sewer..
blind... • April 24th, 2010 at 7:35 pm
http://maxkeiser.com/.karl denninger and m.k…could it be that there are those among usthat are bent on proving the propositionthat fraud itself is responsible for a high standard ofliving in the socio-economic sphere of man?.if so they should make the argument in public..”if you take away fraud.. there is very little left..” m.k..i think… GDP..and empire. and weapons of mass distraction…and destruction.
b....... • April 24th, 2010 at 8:08 pm
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1947-The-Audacity-Of-Synthetics.html.The Audacity Of Synthetics, karl denninger..”used toilet paper”.. for the taxpayer. thank you forplaying our systemically important, hehe, game..sleeping with council? that sounds interesting..maybe not..”The “CDOs” that are at issue here were synthetics.That is, they did not own actual bonds, they were comprised of credit-default swaps that Goldman wrote against subprime mortgage bonds.This would have left Goldman exposed (as the writer of the swaps) for the potential losses. Goldman, in turn, bought a CDS from AIG against the “portfolio” in the CDO, thereby laying off the risk on AIG.Goldman is thus now “net neutral” (provided AIG can pay!) and happy as a pig in slop, as they made money on the origination fees for the CDO and in addition get to skim a nice little bit off the servicing.What could possibly go wrong?More than a few things…….But somehow I find it hard to believe that it was made clear to the buyers of these tranches before they plunked down their money that these CDOs came into existence because a wise guy came to the bank and asked for them to create a synthetic CDO with specific characteristics and that they would provide the cash flow to be paid to their investors – but that the essence of their desire in setting this up was that they believed the reference instruments would default and in doing so they would become rich while the tranche buyers would be left with little or nothing!.You can say that the buyers of the CDOs should have done their due diligence. Ok, I’ll grant you that. You can also say that the ratings agencies had no business granting “AAA” ratings on underlying securities with such shaky repayment prospects, and I’ll agree with that too.But this leaves open the question of whether it is fair, just, or even legal to create a synthetic security that at it’s core comes into existence because someone believes that the reference is going to detonate, and then sell off pieces of that security to investors without prominently disclosing the source of the funding of the cash flow, that they proffered the criteria for inclusion in the reference and that the INTENT of their funding was to profit from an EXPECTED detonation of the reference securities.It also leaves open the question of laying off that risk on an insurance company (whether in a regulated subsidiary or not) without similarly disclosing the above to them up front! That is, is it fair, just (or even legal) to buy fire insurance on a property when you have been told that someone expects a fire in that structure based on what they believe is credible analysis (e.g. a look at the wiring plan), without telling the insurance company about what you were told?”.comment: he goes on to coin the term “rape for profit”.i think that is a new one. perhaps predictable in the worldof tangential and derivative synthetic speculation, a newmathematical domain for “humanity” to explore..
blindman • April 25th, 2010 at 6:48 pm
“open up the window and check out the view..” gene burnett.http://maxkeiser.com/watch/rebel-rouser/jump-you-fuckers/
b • April 25th, 2010 at 7:37 pm
http://maxkeiser.com/watch/egill-helgasons-tv-show/31-january-2010/.part 1 and part 2.
Guest • April 28th, 2010 at 4:00 pm
Agree.
