Roubini Debate with Goldman’s Jim O’Neill on the FT from Villa d’Este, Italy
FT World Video –- FT news editor John Thornhill talks to top global economists Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs and Nouriel Roubini. (Subscription to the FT Required to view video) 
The two economists debate and divide sharply on the Greek bailout and the future of China. Mr. O’Neill says that the Greek debt crisis does not really matter very much in the global scheme of things, while Mr. Roubini says that the country is a canary in the coal mine.
All rights reserved, Roubini Global Economics, LLC. Opinions expressed on RGE EconoMonitors are those of individual analysts and may or may not express RGE’s own consensus view. RGE is not a certified investment advisory service and aims to create an intellectual framework for informed financial decisions by its clients.
16 Responses to “Roubini Debate with Goldman’s Jim O’Neill on the FT from Villa d’Este, Italy”
Octavio Richetta • March 28th, 2010 at 4:40 pm
A lot of momentum has been lost in this blog. Can we revive it? Well, a lot depends on the Professor. His own view on how important to him the blog is will be the key determinant of the revival chances. Professor, please tell us what you want from this blog. DO you want to kill it or do you want to revive it to its former prominence?I am about to leave Argentina so the timing is not the best in terms of being a very active poster but I will do my best.Here is my first contribution:In the subject of economic forecasting and investment markets, I think the big picture is that investors know we are going through a replay of AG low rates after the 2001 recession. We are now in a bigger mess but we are down more (0%-0.25% rates) vs 1% then; with virtual assurance from Benny that the employment situation will require 0% rates for A LONG, LONG time.So what does this mean to the casino players out there? In the same way the markets and several bubbles soared then behind 1% rates, they are betting this will happen again. And so far it has. There is of course lots of risks involved. I don’t have the balls to play the game with my own money as I have to see a positive fundamental angle to feel comfortable taking risks.So the ever optimistic crowd of players that play with OPM will keep partying while interest rates stay at 0% and a clear indication of very slow growth/a DD doesn’t develop. Unless another quasi-black swan event such as Dubai Greece Spain hits with gale force.Bottom line: The party will go on. I will continue to watch the dance but not dance much myself. I am still positioned for an eventual return of higher volatility via VXX. I am willing to wait for as long as it takes as the securities get liquidated in 2019. Read the prospectus carefully.
Rip • March 28th, 2010 at 7:03 pm
I agree with you, Octavio, that the momentum on this forum has been lost, but I was never convinced that the Professor ever really got input or inspiration from these posts either. Many of the comments went off on wild tangents although to the extent they related to the current general economic issues, I still found some informative.I would have found it more informative had the Professor more frequently engaged in the topics either to clarify or to defend his position as many other blogg writers do, but otherwise it was pretty much like a teacher putting a topic on the board and telling the class to “discuss” while he left the room and never came back.So, I guess the flock has dispersed, although I will still check it out periodically. We pulled out of the markets a good while ago and are selling our real estate also, as we do not see any fundamental basis for a “recovery” as such in the short or medium term. And long term may be a looooong ways out.Good luck on your travels and investments.
Rip • March 28th, 2010 at 7:08 pm
By the way, Octavio, how are things heating up regarding Las Malvinas? Not much in the US news since the rig moved in and began drilling few weeks ago.
Guest • March 28th, 2010 at 8:33 pm
Ovtavio, are you posting anywhere else? What other sites are you frequenting? I have been doing a lot more reading at ZeroHedge, but don’t recognize any names posting comments. I miss the regulars from the Prof’s site here.I was in Argentina last week – just stayed in BA. People there were telling me that Patagonia is the place to visit. Did some research and it does look quite beautiful down there.
Octavio Richetta • March 28th, 2010 at 10:49 pm
Check this out. Amazing!http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htmAnswers to questions above: Malvinas issue totally gone from the news. I read a lot but post little. I miss the posting as that is what helps me keeping the thinking straight.There is no need for the Professor to past actively in the discussion to show he cares for the blog. There are other ways.
Octavio Richetta • March 28th, 2010 at 10:55 pm
don’t agree 100% with this one but very good reading nevertheless.http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/guestcommentaryview?art_id=10334
Octavio Richetta • March 28th, 2010 at 10:58 pm
This has been posted in many sites. Still, it is worth repeating it so that one does not forget what is really going on.http://www.comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=Newsletter.aspx&category=MarketCommentary&newsletterid=1518&menugroup=Home
o • March 28th, 2010 at 11:00 pm
He is starting to remind me of GWBhttp://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62R12420100328
Octavio Richetta • March 28th, 2010 at 11:04 pm
The power of government spending:UPDATE 2-Japan retail sales log biggest rise in 13 yrshttp://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE62S00O20100329?type=marketsNewsJapan will never learn:-)But the Nikkei is down: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE62S01F20100329?type=marketsNews
Octavio Richetta • March 28th, 2010 at 11:16 pm
Just an old link. Don’t know if any of the stuff in it is reliable. But the onservation that the cost of our ME wars is approaching 1 trillion makes sense. We Amerikans are Da’ only people in thw world that cab have our cake and eat it too.http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/More 1 trillion trivia:1. The cost of the subprime mess.2. The cost of the ARM crisis coming.3. The amount of junk MBS the FEd bought.4. The losses that will arise from the bad debt in the PIIGS
Octavio Richetta • March 28th, 2010 at 11:23 pm
I see a lot more meetings in hell coming:http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4717704
Octavio Richetta • March 28th, 2010 at 11:24 pm
The tide seems to be changing:http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/
Octavio Richetta • March 28th, 2010 at 11:38 pm
yeah, Patagonia is great but extremely windy. This season, I logged some great montain biking around villa pehuenia, lake alumine.
Rip • March 29th, 2010 at 12:55 am
I also read much more than I post anywhere, and I browse a lot of sites. I agree that the Prof does not have to reply directly in the comment sections, but I had not seen evidence that he was even indirectly responding or acknowledging them in any form. He certainly may be, just could not tell by me.Oh well….lots of points of view and yet few pearls among them.Good Luck
JLarkin • March 29th, 2010 at 9:01 am
Good to see you are still out there Octavio. Like you, I have pulled back to mostly cash. It sure feels like a casino, run by the pros with computer trades day-trading all day long. On the other hand, confidence is returning and fiat money is really just based on confidence. There are days I think Bernanke has pulled it off; no second dip coming, just the new normal of moving sideways in a range for many years to come.
Guest too • March 30th, 2010 at 6:21 pm
ahh. same institutional identity. svali.no?
