The U.S.-China Currency and Trade Collision Course
Following my attendance at the annual China Development Forum, including a private session for Western delegates with Premier Wen Jiabao, I believe China and the United States may be on a collision course over Beijing’s insistence that it will not allow the value of the renminbi (RMB) to rise.
While RGE believes the two countries may still come to a grudging compromise that falls short of public confrontation over the issue, there is now nearly a 50% chance that the U.S. Treasury will label China a currency manipulator in April.
Please read the rest of my analysis, available only to RGE clients.
All rights reserved, Roubini Global Economics, LLC. Opinions expressed on RGE EconoMonitors are those of individual analysts and may or may not express RGE’s own consensus view. RGE is not a certified investment advisory service and aims to create an intellectual framework for informed financial decisions by its clients.
18 Responses to “The U.S.-China Currency and Trade Collision Course”
11b40 • March 24th, 2010 at 8:46 pm
Man! What a differnce a year makes.A year ago, this blog was smokin’. Now, totally dead.As Peter JB is want to say…Ho HumBest wishes to all, and to all a good night.Independent Contractor
Little Saver • March 25th, 2010 at 2:01 am
Perhaps, one of the reasons for the blog decline may be that RGE is still lookng at things mainly from a pure economic viewpoint.A speech by Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig has raised some interesting points….Specifically:When the markets are no longer competitive, firms become a monopoly or an oligopoly and it matters more who you know than what you know.That wouldn’t include for example our former and present Treasury Secretary, would it?Decisions are made on relation-mutual-benefit-grounds, rather than on economic arguments. RGE doesn’t give enough attention to this driving factor, methinks.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoF8ZIvhZCk.with steve keen, max and stacy. 2/25/2010
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