Bloomberg Reports Roubini Says Cautious China to Limit Yuan Gain to 4%
The central bank may end a 20-month peg to the dollar as soon as the second quarter, allowing a 2 percent one-step gain, and then let the currency strengthen another 1 percent to 2 percent in 12 months, Roubini said in an interview in New York. The yuan rose 21 percent between July 2005 and July 2008, when the government halted its advance to protect exports.
Roubini’s forecast is less aggressive than the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 20 analysts for the yuan to rise 5 percent to 6.50 per dollar by March 31, 2011. Chinese central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said March 6 the nation should be “very cautious” in exiting policies adopted during the global financial crisis, including the exchange-rate link.
“It will be less than what they did in 2005 when everything was going right,” Roubini, 51, who anticipated the global financial crisis, said in the March 4 interview. “They will move by a token amount. The world is much cloudier in every dimension. They are super cautious.”
Roubini, who chairs New York-based Roubini Global Economics LLC, has become famous for his pessimistic projections. In 2007, he correctly predicted a “hard landing” for the world economy. He said last year that the global economy would shrink through 2009, only for growth to resume in the middle of the year.
Jim O’Neill, the chief Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist who coined the term BRICs for Brazil, Russia, India and China in 2001, said last month that “something is brewing” on the yuan and predicted policy makers will allow a one-time 5 percent gain. Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards gained 0.3 percent to 6.6290 against the dollar as of 10 a.m. in Shanghai, indicating bets the currency will climb about 2.9 percent in the next year from the spot rate of 6.8264.
“We must be very cautious about the timing of normalizing the policies, and this includes the renminbi rate policy,” Zhou said at a press briefing in Beijing, using another term for the Chinese currency. A global recovery “isn’t solid,” he said.
‘Sooner or Later’
China will exit its crisis policies “sooner or later” as it balances growth and inflation concerns, Zhou said. Regulators ordered banks to set aside more cash as reserves and to curb lending after the economy grew 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the most in two years.
Consumer prices probably climbed 2.5 percent in February from a year earlier, the biggest increase since October 2008, compared with 1.5 percent in January, according to the median estimate from 29 economists. A stronger currency would reduce import prices and may reduce the need to sell yuan for dollars to maintain the peg.
“A bit of move in the currency might help,” Roubini said. “If they move it by 2-3 percent, it won’t make a huge difference to inflation pressure. They are always cautious and won’t bow to the pressure from the U.S.”
While President Barack Obama has urged China to let the yuan climb to aid U.S. manufacturers, Chinese exporters say a gain of more than 2 percent may wipe out profits.
China’s overseas shipments rose 21 percent in January from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 16 months. Fifteen U.S. senators called for stiffer tariffs on China’s imports last week, accusing the country of artificially keeping the yuan cheap. A stronger yuan would increase the purchasing power of Chinese residents and reduce the country’s reliance on exports.
“Most people are concerned about inflation, I am worried about the export-led growth model,” said Roubini. “A weak currency and low interest rate is a massive transfer of wealth from household income to enterprises. It will take more than three, five years to change China’s model of growth.”
Options traders are increasing their bets on the currency. Three-month implied volatility, a measure of expectations for yuan price movements, showed traders expected swings of 3.27 percent on March 4, a one-year high, up from 1.07 percent on Jan. 1.
“The Chinese authorities will be in no rush to further strengthen their currency,” said Joe Craven, the Asia-Pacific head of currencies and fixed-income at UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking in Hong Kong. “I view options volatility as being currently too high, especially in the shorter-end of the curve.”
9 Responses to “Bloomberg Reports Roubini Says Cautious China to Limit Yuan Gain to 4%”
@ blindman”The Lucretian Swerve”Of course, the “Lucretian Swerve” is a pseudo-academic cop-out (another among many) biased by the shaky pillars of pious pretence and can easily be argued, if the points are confined to physics but like most things these days, few are interested in logic and reason and one can be easily accused of being a “terrorist” for really no reason at all, at shot a dawn at the whim of any true-believer moron that happens by and has the urge.Man is the Universe.Environment or better, far better, milieux, all, the expression of Man (some would say God) and milieux varies in multiplicity and this is in itself expressed in the most powerful ‘symbol’ of all, that is the pyramid, which etymologically can be traced back to inferring many things analogically related with great precision, to fire (the mythical expression) to the power of the powers of ten, or, infinite structures of power, qualified in harmony and time (relationship) and we can easily say that this in turn suggests, the full solid representation of Pythagorean Magik.?. Indeed, this means that the alien is within; the mind is of the Gods (to be romantic) and hence of Universal Principle, and the body, of the Earth or IOW, Parochial Principle.But, what is interesting, is that this suggests that “mind” or consciousness, is invariable except by the influences of body, which of course is a synthesization of the milieux (local), that is to say, the whole environment. Mind is scalable.And you will note, that this comes complete with spectrum, which again infers, that aliens, real aliens that wish to come and eat us, or whatever it is that they prefer to do with us, will not be terribly comfortable within our hemisphere – er, think milieux – which means that they certainly would not chose to digest us even if we did smell as attractive as Stilton, for example.This means that environment is also scalular.So, one Universe; one mind (type); no aliens, er, demographically speaking. Or, one Universe; one set of Universal Principles!Exception: none.
Er, I forgot Ho hum (above):BTW “We expect discrimination between EM countries with strong balance sheets and solid policies and those with weak fundamentals, rather than indiscriminate contagion.” The reference to this quote is in the right column 3 or 4 inches up, entitled ‘Venezuela Devaluation’.Basically I interpret this as suggesting that the contagion will be on the basic of ‘discrimination” (and bias to the preference of influence…) and not, “indiscriminate”, er, “contagion”. LOLPlanned and managed Chaos.Global Economic Crises are just so damned entertaining… for some.Ho hum
http://independent.com/news/2010/feb/27/cousteau-seaworld-tragedy/.free willy!…”We’re not being emotional here. We’re being real. Our concern is about us: What are we passing on to the young people? What are we telling them? Are we deforming reality? Is that fair? In the end, it’s an issue of us.”
Speaking of the continual ad nauseum – threat of a pre-emptive nuclear attack on Iran: (read: where I don’t believe that Obama is insane)”In a nutshell, and to paraphrase Talleyrand, U.S. military action in Iran would be more than a crime—it would be a mistake or, more precisely, a series of mistakes, which would quite rapidly lead to the United States losing its influence in the world.”"The economic “blowback” from any U.S. military action against Iran would be enormous, causing great harm to the United States. More generally, military strength is no longer the true basis of national power in the modern world.”http://www.raceforiran.com/why-saudi-arabia-does-not-support-a-strike-on-iranComment: well, Yes, we all know this to be the case except of course for the “f’crazies… ” and their PNAC and all that hangs off it all, that is the whole agenda. You must also remember that the whole essence behind the PNAC agenda (thinking and leverageable strength) is the prime ultimate global and raw power of the USA economically, innovatively and militarily, IOW, the USA superior grasp and wielded power of the “milieux” or that part of the environmental condition that stems directly from applied consciousness of applied barbarian intelligence – where major components of this ‘merican (?) muse (hot air), turns out to be masculine and not feminine that is to say, destructive and not constructive, lacking the “economic” integrity and credibility, and lacking of the support base “med” or power of the powers of ten. In other words, instead of being the indestructible and unstoppable mythical pyramid, the USA has become really not much more than a deflated fungal matt sans the inability to lift the flag of the insane Zionist ideologies. Obviously, the Theory of “The Lucretian Swerve” is input to that which muddies the waters which serve as the prophet’s enchanting glass ball to the future, here.A phenomenon without integrity is a phenomena spent and therefore either in need of re-invention or having the hard seals placed on its written memories – for life is a dynamic that always moves forward and waits for nought.An environment sets the parameters in which its children play. Environment + consciousness = milieuxKeywords: its | milieu | problem: ideology = dreams of fools that know nothing of elementary physics, or, human behaviour | fools = elements of “The Lucretian Swerve”.Ho hum
Speaking of the beauty and wonder of dreaming, swerve, formsof consciousness, and sleeping. living in a dreammany thanks to the bedazzling quality of the plasticityof neural desperation, quietly compensating, communally,for the anticipated payoff of lethargic slumber and ease.ahhh. sleep. so comforting. “free” of constraints or thedemands of adherence to nasty “law” and “principle”.”evidence and facts”, they do have meaning. no?.so,here we go. the worm, turning. physics..http://www.garynull.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/GaryNullShow030910.mp3.there is no need to be kind or nice or forgiving or protective. there is only therequirementof honesty for the truth, the only reliable guide. ( needed) forsurvival of man. and then facts and evidence tell a storythat becomes obvious, with the quality of self evidence oris self evident, truth. harsh. yea..”it is very simple” . Ian Henshall.ps. not a trivial concern. methinks..the universe has made itself obvious for a reason.it is not hiding anywhere, not only to be foundin a cave analogy, plato. it is everywhere, in full view. that isthe way the universe presents itself, with localcolour, of course..http://www.progressiveradionetwork.com/the-gary-null-show-wnye/.pss.we cannot continue to accept / claim the incurious are deservingof the status of expert. (authority). help us, simple stupidityis unacceptable as a foundation or guiding principle..so, do we know the facts and evidence? what are they?and the connective “tissue” that relates one to the other? mind..http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2002/09/03/1446451.php.Anti-WarHunter S Thompson on 911Realplayer audio-transcriptby Australian Broadcasting CorporationTuesday Sep 3rd, 2002 1:40 AMWho stands to benefit? Who had the opportunity and the motive? You just kind of look at these basic things…who stands to benefit? Who had the opportunity and the motive? You just kind of look at these basic things,Hunter S Thompson on 911Hunter S. Thompson, talked to Mick O’Reganfrom Radio National’s Media Report.Australian Broadcasting Corporation6:15am – Thursday 29 August 2002Realplayer audiohttp://abc.net.au/rn/talks/8.30/mediarpt/audio/hunters290802.ramplease note the transcript has been edited as well as CENSORED .transcript:Mick O’Regan: Unlike Walter Cronkite, Hunter S. Thompson is a stirrer, a deliberately provocative commentator and a freewheeling iconoclast, infamous for his relentless critique of the American government and military.He lives in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and that’s where I found him at the end of a less than perfect telephone line, to ask his opinion of the state of the US media.Hunter S. Thompson: Well let’s see, ‘shamefully’ is a word that comes to mind, but that’s not true in the case of The New York Times, The Washington Post, but overall the American journalism I think has been cowed and intimidated by the massive flat-sucking, this patriotic orgy that the White House keeps whipping up. You know if you criticise the President it’s unpatriotic and there’s something wrong with you, you may be a terrorist.Mick O’Regan: So in that sense, there’s not enough room for dissenting voices?Hunter S. Thompson: There’s plenty of room there’s not just enough people who are willing to take the risk. It’s sort of a herd mentality, a lemming-like mentality. If you don’t go with the flow you’re anti-American and therefore a suspect. And we’ve seen this before, these patriotic frenzies. It’s very convenient having an undeclared war that you can call a war and impose military tribunals and wartime security and we have these generals telling us that this war’s going to go on for a long, long time. Maybe not so much the generals now, the generals are a little afraid of Iraq, a little worried about it, but it’s the civilians in the White House, the gang of thieving, just lobbyists for the military industrial complex, who are running the White House, and to be against them is to be patriotic, then hell, call me a traitor.Mick O’Regan: Do you think that most of the American media, or say most of the influential American media has bought that patriotism line, and as a result are self-censoring themselves?Hunter S. Thompson: There you go, self-censorship, yes, that’s a very good point. Yes, I would say that. Now there are always exceptions to that but there’ve been damn few. Yeah.Mick O’Regan: So is it the White House laying down what they think is appropriate journalism, or is it the news media outlets deciding that they have to be patriotic, that they’re under some sort of undeclared duty at the moment, to somehow reflect the patriotism of the American public?Hunter S. Thompson: Well it goes a little deeper than that, because this Administration is well on the road to seizing power, and Tom Dashell, the Senate Democratic leader the other day accused Bush of trying to seize dictatorial powers. Now that was a big breakthrough, and I’m starting to sense that the tide may be turning against the President; we have to beat this bastard one way or another. And the American government is the greatest enemy of freedom around the world that I can think of. And we keep waving that flag, freedom, yes, these people are flag-suckers.Mick O’Regan: What about the language that’s being used to describe the so-called undeclared war? I mean there have been criticisms in the mainstream press in Australia that journalists have too readily taken up the language of politicians and bureaucrats, that they have uncritically declared the war against terror without really thinking it through; what’s your assessment of the situation in the States?Hunter S. Thompson: Well I’m glad to hear that – you’re talking about Australian journalists?Mick O’Regan: Yes.Hunter S. Thompson: Yes, well that’s good. Congratulations boys. There is not much of that in this country yet. This over here is the most paranoid, most insecure country that I’ve ever lived in, I mean it’s the worst this country has been since I have ever seen it.Mick O’Regan: Do you feel like there’s a restriction of media freedom at the moment? Is there a restricted space for media freedom?Hunter S. Thompson: I wouldn’t say it’s a restricted space, but it’s a dark and dangerous grey area to venture into. Several journalists have lost their jobs, columnist Bill Maher on ABC, but some people were made an example of early on. The media doesn’t reflect world opinion or even a larger, more intelligent opinion over here, it’s just this drumbeat of celebrity worship and child funerals and hooded prisoners being led around Guantanamo. No I’m very disturbed about the civil rights implications of this, and everybody should be.Mick O’Regan: So just on journalists who may have lost their jobs, are you saying that people who came out and were fearless in their critique of the government or the government’s policy, that those people actually lost their jobs as journalists?Hunter S. Thompson: Well I can think of two that come to mind right in the beginning. I haven’t heard of any since. But I think Bill Maher, there was some kind of rave after 9/11 that all these people, cowards, you know these dirty little bastards, who snuck up on us and pulled off what amounts to a perfect crime really, no witnesses, very little cost; talk about cost-effective, that was a hell of a strike. I’m not sure I’d call them cowards, but that’s what Bill Maher said on TV and he said he considered our missile attacks on unseen victims, wedding parties etc. that that was cowardly. Whacko. Well that brought a huge tidal wave of condemnation that came down on him. And that was the ABC, yeah.Mick O’Regan: So at the moment people don’t want to hear that sort of criticism, they want people to rally round the flag and support the military?Hunter S. Thompson: I think that’s right, and I think the reason for that is that they don’t want to hear it because boy, that’s going to be a lot of agonising reappraisal, as they say. What reality is in this country and the world right now. Yes, popular opinion in this country has to be swung over to “the White House is wrong, these people are corporate thieves. They’ve turned the American Dream into a chamber of looting.” It would take a lot of adjustment, mentally.Mick O’Regan: At the moment, even in Australia, the media is preparing for the first anniversary of the attacks in a couple of weeks from now. How is the American media preparing to sort of commemorate the first anniversary of the September 11th attack?Hunter S. Thompson: You would never believe it, it’s so insane. This is a frantic publicity. Every day on television the President’s on TV at least once a day, and celebrations of the dead, the patriots, exposes on Al Qaida, it’s just relentless, in fact 25 hours a day, of just how tragic it was and how patriotic it was, and how much we have to get back at these dirty little swine, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised for as hideous and dumb as it sounds, an invasion of Iraq on September 11, yeah I’ll get out and take a long shot bet on that.Mick O’Regan: That you think that the occasion might actually be used as a way of using that popular fervour or that popular patriotism as an appropriate day to launch an invasion?Hunter S. Thompson: Well it seems like that to me, because that’s their only power base really, is that frenzy of patriotism, and it’s our revenge strike, you know, Uncle Sam gets even. If that’s going to work at all, there would be no time when it would work better when everyone in the country is cranked up into emotional frenzies. I myself am getting little teary eyed like watching some CNN special. This reminds me exactly of the month after the attack when there was just one drumroll after another after another. But there is some opposition now popping up in this country, a lot of it.Mick O’Regan: Could I take you back to September 11th. What I’d really like to know is your reactions. And I know you said you were writing a sports column for ESPN when the planes hit the towers, but could I get you to tell that story of when you found out about it and what you were doing and what your reaction was?Hunter S. Thompson: I had in fact just finished a sports column for ESPN. Here it is: ‘It was just after dawn in Woody Creek, Colorado when the first plane hit the World Trade Center in New York City on Tuesday morning. And as usual I was writing about sports. But not for long. Football suddenly seemed irrelevant compared to the scenes of destruction and other devastation coming out of New York on TV.’Mick O’Regan: You went on to say in that article, which I have in front of me, that ‘even ESPN was broadcasting war news. It was the worst disaster in the history of the United States.’ Do you think that the event completely transformed the way in which Americans see themselves and their own vulnerability?’Hunter S. Thompson: No, the event by itself wouldn’t have done that. But it was the way the Administration was able to use that event. Even use it as a springboard for everything they wanted to do. And that might tell you something. I remember when I was writing that column you sort of wonder when something like that happens, Well who stands to benefit? Who had the opportunity and the motive? You just kind of look at these basic things, and I don’t know if I want to go into this on worldwide radio here, but –Mick O’Regan: You may as well.Hunter S. Thompson: All right. Well I saw that the US government was going to benefit, and the White House people, the republican administration to take the mind of the public off of the crashing economy. Now you want to keep in mind that every time a person named Bush gets into office, the nation goes into a drastic recession they call it.Mick O’Regan: It seems a very long bow to me, but are you sort of suggesting that this worked in the favour of the Bush Administration?Hunter S. Thompson: Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. And I have spent enough time on the inside of, well in the White House and you know, campaigns and I’ve known enough people who do these things, think this way, to know that the public version of the news or whatever event, is never really what happened.Mick O’Regan: Well let me just ask you on that. I mean you’ve pioneered a form of journalism called Gonzo journalism, in which it’s almost like there’s no revision. What you see and feel is what goes down on the page, and it’s that first blush, that first image that hits the readership. Does that mean that in a way it’s hard for you to appear credible within the US media because people would say Oh look, that’s just another conspiracy theory from a drug-addled Gonzo journalist like Hunter S. Thompson?Hunter S. Thompson: Yeah, that’s a problem. I’m not sure if it’s my problem or other people’s, or their’s, but I stand by this column and the one after it. I’ve been right so often, and my percentages are so high, I’ll stand by this column that I wrote that day, and the next one. So what appears to be maybe Gonzo journalism, I’m not going to claim any prophetic powers, but…Mick O’Regan: Well one of the things you do say in that first article you wrote, you say, ‘It’s now 24 hours later, and we’re not getting much information about the 5Ws of this thing.’ Now by the 5Ws I’m presuming you mean the Who, the What, the When, the Why and the How. Is that still how you feel, that a year later those key questions haven’t been answered?Hunter S. Thompson: Absolutely. It’s even worse though. How much more do we have than we had a year ago? Damn little, I think.Mick O’Regan: Hunter Thompson, will you be at home watching the commemoration programs on 11th September? Will you be among the audience, which I imagine will number tens of millions of people who watch what happens in New York?Hunter S. Thompson: That’s a good point, that’s a good question, and yes, it’s soon, isn’t it? No, I won’t. I think I’ll grab Anita and take a road trip. We’ll just go off and have a little fun. Why sit around and watch that stuff?Mick O’Regan: US journalist, Hunter S. Thompson with a very personal and idiosyncratic view of September 11..comment: echoes. Hunter S. Thompson, R.I.P.. “basic things”.”look at”.
http://www.911truth.org/article.php?story=20090713033854249.Monday, July 13 2009 – Research/EvidenceDemolition access to the World Trade Center towers: Part one – Tenantsby Kevin R. Ryan7-09-09Distribution via the Unanswered Questions Wirehttp://www.unansweredquestions.org/.”basic things”. h.s.t.
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