Roubini Bloomberg Interview on Sovereign Debt and U.S. Outlook
Bloomberg — Nouriel Roubini talks with Bloomberg’s Carol Massar and Matt Miller about the outlook for the U.S. stock market. Roubini also discusses the risk of sovereign-debt default, necessary steps to reduce government debt and the likelihood of aid for Greece from the International Monetary Fund. (Click for Video)
00:00 G-7 meeting;sovereign-debt default risk
01:48 Potential IMF assistance for Greece
03:09 Is the euro-zone becoming undone?
04:29 Socialization of private losses, bond market
05:54 California versus Greece; dollar strength
07:26 Need for stimulus and higher taxes
10:49 Outlook for U.S. stock market in 2010
Running time 11:34
15 Responses to “Roubini Bloomberg Interview on Sovereign Debt and U.S. Outlook”
Wow I don’t even know where to start on this video:1:48 Potential IMF assistance for GreeceRoubini’s prescription is to bring in the IMF. What!? Let the IMF enforce austerity, but with no traditional currency devaluation remedy possible because of the Eurozone? Roubini completely ignores the inconvenient truth that Greece has nowhere to go but into a deflationary spiral in any austerity scenario. Not to mention that their people will revolt (and take a larger share of their economy off-the-books.)03:09 Is the euro-zone becoming undone?If your view of the Eurozone is Germany and France supporting everyone else, then, no. How realistic is that?04:29 Socialization of private losses, bond marketRoubini talks about how Europe has socialized losses, but conveniently fails to mention his favorites in the Obama administration who are the kings of moral hazard05:54 California versus Greece; dollar strengthRoubini and the interviewers talk as if they are really the same, and that we are ‘already there’. He ignores the fact that the Eurozone is largely a regulatory, not a fiscal entity, which makes the situations very different. Without a political union in Europe, the Eurozone problems are quite intractable. Of course, California’s are too, but for different reasons.07:26 Need for stimulus and higher taxesHere is where I had to stop listening. Roubini essentially blames ‘obstructionist’ Republicans for thwarting Tim Geithner’s and Larry Summer’s plans that would put things on the right course. What!? He then promulgates the theory that short-term stimulus followed by long term ‘fiscal consolidation’ is the right plan. Dr Roubini, every politician since time immemorial has taken that approach. If only those obstructionist Republicans would get out of the way, the pols could run us even further into the ditch before leaving it to their successors.10:49 Outlook for U.S. stock market in 2010How can anybody know this. It is not a true market anyway. It exists and moves to serve its masters, who are not you and I.OH, BTW, First (but only since I am in Korea and you are all asleep, Ha!)
Ha, woke up and found some stimulus (the thing we live on these days) in this topic: “Roubini talks about how Europe has socialized losses, but conveniently fails to mention his favorites in the Obama administration who are the kings of moral hazard”Michael Hudson has more on these favorites:If the economy deteriorates in the L-shaped “hockey-stick” rut that many economists forecast, what political price will President Obama and the Democrats pay for having returned the financial keys to the Bush Republican appointees who gave away the store in the first place? Reappointing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke may end up injuring not only the economy but also the Democratic Party for many years to come.The remarkable upward redistribution of wealth since 1979 attests to the success of the Fed and Treasury tandem of financial-fiscal reform – giving the word “reform” almost as bad a name in America as it has in Russia since the neoliberal Rubinomics reforms pressed by Larry Summers, Jeffrey Sachs and Co. in the 1990s. Lowering interest rates enabled banks to sell vastly more debt than ever before, while wealth-holders took their returns in low-taxed capital gains rather than “earned” income taxed as highly as wages. The more an individual or wealth bracket earned, the lower the tax rate that had to be paid. This is the golden age that the Fed and Treasury seek to renew.Labor does not have much to gain from this policy. As Mr. Bernanke’s predecessor, Chairman Greenspan, famously bragged, what has caused quiescence among labor union members when it comes to striking for higher wages – or even for better working conditions – is the fear of being fired and being unable to meet their mortgage and credit card payments. “One paycheck away from homelessness,” or a downgraded credit rating leading to soaring interest charges, has become a formula for labor management.http://michael-hudson.com/Gives a new meaning to the concept of predatory debt creation, methinks.Good morning, debt slaves, look at the bright side of it, the debt originators are wealthier than they’ve ever been. And they were just funded by your leaders to create more of the same. Ain’t that great from and for them?
apologies in advance ….so i was thinking as has been thought before, must have been.or maybe people just know without having to bring it to the level of consciousthought? topic, nesting. home. community. andwhy? why we arrange and build and acquire things.communicateunder roof. nesting. and how that basic act ofhuman survival has been financed and leveraged, turned into a racket,in an international, global, ponzi scheme to the detriment of every individualperson but with a benefit, feeding opportunity, to the institution of finance, real estate,government…..taxation. …etc..the reason we nest, create has to do with ourgenetics and the brain / head vs birth canaldilemma / fiasco. the big “brain” needs to matureoutside the biological womb so as to be able toescape before it gets too big. luckily, it evolvedthe capacity to create, externally, a womb likeenvironment for its own sanctuary, developmentsafe growth and development. so the “world”,home, is like an external womb and we do this toour ecology / environment, alter it to satisfy ourstructure and function, as we see fit..i has been said that organizations are livingentities. persons ( of an equal sort ). ? anywayif so they must exist “in” natural persons, to someextent, ( seek their expression there ) and they too must be conceived,gestate and then experience birth before the head getstoo big for the birth canal, i imagine. and theymust be born into an external “womb” that willallow for further growth and functionality..these compete, wombs, symbolically, insideand outside of the individual minds.. eye.aye and nay ..http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereigntyi think we arein a period, no pun intended, where the competingviews and claims are mutually exclusive and are makingclaim on the same resources internally and externally..will it be elvis or aaron presly? not to joke aboutsuch a serious matter, mother. Aaron being elvis’s twinthat died at birth?.links. democracy now , 2/4/10 , with transcript..http://www.democracynow.org/2010/2/3/addiction.“In the Realm of Hungry Ghosts”: Dr. Gabor Maté on the Biological and Socio-Economic Roots of Addiction and ADD.and rat haus.Laurens van der Posthttp://www.ratical.org/startHere.html.if you haven’t already seen these, considered these?.l.p. “last will of man” segment describes thestate of man in the natural external womb andthen the time of the synthetic encroachment, and much more.ps.”civilization”. the symbolic, legal, womb of corporate persons. now that those entities inand about us are staking further claims and theindividual self, person, cannot avoid but mustbecome conscious of the dynamics. or …slavery will continue and expand.keyword: slavery | self. corporation | elvis.pss.americas are odd people. america has no language of its own.no culture of its own. no real history of its own. it is anew and pre-tend, hollywood, type of experience where the selfis pre-tend and everyone sees themselves as an actor auditioningfor a victim role in a b rated slasher movie. public and socialexperience is corporate scripted and the young are raised onextreem forms of violence, fear and dread as depicted in videowar training games. ignorance, exploitation and extreme disparityare held out as high ideals. rewarded in debt..this the result of the loss of individual self and the space, womb, of that natural self traded for con-formity to the material,systemic, corporate memes, chaotic law/s, that enrich, nourish the entitiesemerging from the decanting of the economic debt swamp. theseentities, life forms as in “invasion of the body snatchers”, making individual critical thought an impossibility / criminal act.. terror at home and great fear of thought and compassion.we are a people out of time. it has all been spent in the great rush to get here and now we owe it all to some many bankruptcorporation or government entity, the “sovereigns”. so we pre ..tend to other matters / synthetic mothers. ghosts and zombies, hungry..this hurts more than helps? but i post it anyway. and you maylook for the self in a person and find something or nothing. ithink the looking is the important thing regardless of what onemay think they have found. we will always be human and that hasto mean something with qualitative integrity or there is nomeaning to survival. this is where institutionalism and corporatism andcon-formists and war mongers and etc…have lost the integrity of themselves. they have personal namesand biographies but they only communicated an institutionalagenda which is based in flawed ideology and ignorance ofthe impact on actual flesh and blood persons..imo.
AMY GOODMAN: Can you talk about the biology of addiction?DR. GABOR MATÉ: For sure. You see, if you look at the brain circuits involved in addiction—and that’s true whether it’s a shopping addiction like mine or an addiction to opiates like the heroin addict—we’re looking for endorphins in our brains. Endorphins are the brain’s feel good, reward, pleasure and pain relief chemicals. They also happen to be the love chemicals that connect us to the universe and to one another.Now, that circuitry in addicts doesn’t function very well, as the circuitry of incentive and motivation, which involves the chemical dopamine, also doesn’t function very well. Stimulant drugs like cocaine and crystal meth, nicotine and caffeine, all elevate dopamine levels in the brain, as does sexual acting out, as does extreme sports, as does workaholism and so on.Now, the issue is, why do these circuits not work so well in some people, because the drugs in themselves are not surprisingly addictive. And what I mean by that is, is that most people who try most drugs never become addicted to them. And so, there has to be susceptibility there. And the susceptible people are the ones with these impaired brain circuits, and the impairment is caused by early adversity, rather than by genetics.AMY GOODMAN: What do you mean, “early adversity”?DR. GABOR MATÉ: Well, the human brain, unlike any other mammal, for the most part develops under the influence of the environment. And that’s because, from the evolutionary point of view, we developed these large heads, large fore-brains, and to walk on two legs we have a narrow pelvis. That means—large head, narrow pelvis—we have to be born prematurely. Otherwise, we would never get born. The head already is the biggest part of the body. Now, the horse can run on the first day of life. Human beings aren’t that developed for two years. That means much of our brain development, that in other animals occurs safely in the uterus, for us has to occur out there in the environment. And which circuits develop and which don’t depend very much on environmental input. When people are mistreated, stressed or abused, their brains don’t develop the way they ought to. It’s that simple. And unfortunately, my profession, the medical profession, puts all the emphasis on genetics rather than on the environment, which, of course, is a simple explanation. It also takes everybody off the hook.AMY GOODMAN: What do you mean, it takes people off the hook?DR. GABOR MATÉ: Well, if people’s behaviors and dysfunctions are regulated, controlled and determined by genes, we don’t have to look at child welfare policies, we don’t have to look at the kind of support that we give to pregnant women, we don’t have to look at the kind of non-support that we give to families, so that, you know, most children in North America now have to be away from their parents from an early age on because of economic considerations. And especially in the States, because of the welfare laws, women are forced to go find low-paying jobs far away from home, often single women, and not see their kids for most of the day. Under those conditions, kids’ brains don’t develop the way they need to.And so, if it’s all caused by genetics, we don’t have to look at those social policies; we don’t have to look at our politics that disadvantage certain minority groups, so cause them more stress, cause them more pain, in other words, more predisposition for addictions; we don’t have to look at economic inequalities. If it’s all genes, it’s all—we’re all innocent, and society doesn’t have to take a hard look at its own attitudes and policies.
The Bernanke albatrossMr. Bernanke misses the problem that debts need to be repaid – or at least carried. This debt service deflates the non-financial “real” economy. But the Fed’s analysis stops just before the crash. It is a “good news” theory limited to the happy time while the bubble is expanding and homeowners borrow more and more from the banks to buy houses (or more accurately, their land sites) that are rising in price. This was the Greenspan-Bernanke bubble in a nutshell.” …michael hudson
AMY GOODMAN: You began your talk last night at Columbia, which I went to hear, at the law school, with a quote, and I’d like you to end our conversation with that quote.DR. GABOR MATÉ: Would that be the quote that only in the presence of compassion will people allow themselves—AMY GOODMAN: Mahfouz.DR. GABOR MATÉ: Oh, oh, no, yeah, Naguib Mahfouz, the great Egyptian writer. He said that “Nothing records the effects of a sad life” so completely as the human body—“so graphically as the human body.” And you see that sad life in the faces and bodies of my patients.AMY GOODMAN: Well, Dr. Gabor Maté, I want to thank you very much for being with us.
Insolence and arrogance is ubiquitous and pervasive throughout our socio-economic realm:”What any layman must find alarming is the paranoia and exclusivity of the climate change community. The preparation of the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was apparently like that of a party manifesto. Data was suppressed and criticism ignored. The IPCC’s chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, dismissed sceptics as adherents of “voodoo science”. Dark hints were made of commercial interest and Holocaust denial.”http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/04/scientists-fallibilty-self-criticism-questionWhat “science” is today, and the same goes for “economics”, etc., etc., that is to say, all things institutional and collective, are not “science” but faith-based religion!Nothing more, nothing less!Ho hum
Something for those big impaired brains of “leadership” to consider:”Under the Equal Protection clause, not to mention the First Amendment itself, government may not grant the use of a forum to people whose views it finds acceptable, but deny use to those wishing to express less favored or more controversial views.”– Supreme Court Of The United StatesSource: Police Department v. Mosley, 1972Comment: You have to be a little concerned when “leadership” sponsors a program to kill its own constituents and to obtain public support in order to establish an Official POLICY for “leadership” to unleash all its trained monkey’s to do what it has been doing anyway… and not a word of objection, au contraire, from the lemmings-to-be-culled (read: citizens), er with the stench of official consent (?).Ho hum
Bank Securitization Woes Only the BeginningYves Smithhttp://www.roubini.com/financemarkets-monitor/258383/bank_securitization_woes_only_the_beginningNot so good for the outlook of U.S. stock market in 2010 if debt originators are held responsible for what they did.
The Bishops and Cardinals of the Holy Order of Catholic (Centre of the Universe) Order of all Things Pseudo-Economic and Priestly invade Australia in order to plot the next round of manipulations of the public funds in order to support their failed theories and their efforts to maintain the Global Status Quo, er, Amen:”THE world’s top central bankers began arriving in Australia for high-level talks as renewed fears about the strength of the global economic recovery gripped world share markets.”"Representatives from 24 central banks and monetary authorities, including the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, landed in Sydney to meet tomorrow at an undisclosed location.”http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/world-bankers-meet-in-sydney-as-recovery-fears-intensify/story-e6frfh4f-1225827280461And, and the growing speculation is that the Holy Pope himself, the appointed Holy See said to be appointed by God itself (like his cousin in Vatican City, the evidence of the Carte Blanche signed by the Parties has not yet surfaced for public consumption) That is, Pope Benanke I, will attend and Head the final push for the ever faith-based and Holy faithful and loyal servants of the political obedient.”Speculation that the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, would make an appearance could not be confirmed last night.”Wow, geewiz… what more can I say?Ho hum
In reference to the above gathering of the Holy Faithful and Obedient, it appears that they also have scheduled entertainment in the form of a comedy routine:”Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan will address the central bank officials at a dinner on Monday night.”Nothing like light entertainment and a good laugh.Ho hum
http://www.garynull.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/GaryNullShow020810.mp3.http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17468.February 8, 2010 Haiti, Is it a Humanitarian Operation or an Invasion?The Bankruptcy of the United States is Now Certainby Porter Stansberry.”When governments go bankrupt it’s called “a default.” Currency speculators figured out how to accurately predict when a country would default. Two well-known economists – Alan Greenspan and Pablo Guidotti – published the secret formula in a 1999 academic paper. That’s why the formula is called the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. The rule states: To avoid a default, countries should maintain hard currency reserves equal to at least 100% of their short-term foreign debt maturities. The world’s largest money management firm, PIMCO, explains the rule this way: “The minimum benchmark of reserves equal to at least 100% of short-term external debt is known as the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. Greenspan-Guidotti is perhaps the single concept of reserve adequacy that has the most adherents and empirical support.”The principle behind the rule is simple. If you can’t pay off all of your foreign debts in the next 12 months, you’re a terrible credit risk. Speculators are going to target your bonds and your currency, making it impossible to refinance your debts. A default is assured.So how does America rank on the Greenspan-Guidotti scale? It’s a guaranteed default. The U.S. holds gold, oil, and foreign currency in reserve. The U.S. has 8,133.5 metric tonnes of gold (it is the world’s largest holder). That’s 16,267,000 pounds. At current dollar values, it’s worth around $300 billion. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve shows a current total position of 725 million barrels. At current dollar prices, that’s roughly $58 billion worth of oil. And according to the IMF, the U.S. has $136 billion in foreign currency reserves. So altogether… that’s around $500 billion of reserves. Our short-term foreign debts are far bigger.”…..
“We conclude that the government serves no role in rousing passion nor in initiating or funding entrepreneurship. Instead, the state serves only as a detriment to entrepreneurship.”From Mises Daily (article):Passion Comes from Libertyby Jonathan M. Finegold Catalan on February 9, 2010″Liberty Leading the People” (1830)Eugène Delacroix (1798–1863)”Entrepreneurship is a building block for economic development. Individuals who invest and invent are instilled with a passion to create wealth. The integral role played by entrepreneurship in economic and human development is almost universally accepted. The main point of contention is in pinpointing the source of the incentive to invest.”Comment: The reader will note in this article as well as many others these days, the role of ‘biology’ in the building of arguments on socio-economics and indeed technology across the board. This approach is valid and appropriate and to this end I propose that governance by a central Authority which demands obedience and compliance to an imposed single ideology to be more analogically akin to that of a single celled Amoeba fungal parasite, than that of the capacity of Man and therefore will never hold the centre.”Entrepreneurship” is really the expression of the prime attributes of the individual whilst sustaining life and contributing “privilege” (a biological term) to the fruits of self-procreation and fundamentally, each individual is unique – by nature – and, therefore, any form of socio-economic arrangements must not only acknowledge this “fact”, but also leverage this unique situation to the benefit of the whole, which,a priori, cannot be defined; nor should it be… especially by ‘large impaired brains’ which represent a mucus sponsored single celled Amoeba parasitic fungoid of today’s governing ideologically inspired chaos er, “leadership”, and all that hangs off it!Think on this: Circa 7 billion totally unique creatures each capable of creating a subspecies through expression. Do you wish YOUR life, your whole life to be wasted on obeying the impositions and rules of some vegetable crackpot living in eastern Europe or the Levant just because it has influence and can’t mind its own business?Where are you? Who are you? Why are you?Adapting to Universal Principles is being in “accord” and pushing this edge, means to be human. This is where we have to go!Keywords: Amoeba | Fungus | Parasite | accord | imposition | crackpots | “leadership” | you |Ho hum
speaking of crackpots….disturbing, more, clips from “eating” production at 11:15 amor there about..http://archive.wbai.org/.Eco-LogicOn drinking water, natural gas and hydraulic fracturing. Exploding toilets. Exploding wells. Contaminated drinking water. This is what has happened in other states that have allowed Halliburton’s hydraulic fracturing process to reach natural gas deposits in shale. Chesapeake Energy Corporation put out a press release on Oct. 28 stating they won’t drill in New York City’s watershed. What does that really mean? What about the other companies that are taking out drilling leases? What about the rest of the state? Why is the governor allowing these leases? What does the NYC City Council pronouncement on the subject really mean? What about other dangers to the water supplies? Why isn’t all drinking water protected from any and all pollution? What about the already-contaminated water in Pennsylvania and other states? We already do without the gas. We cannot do without the water. Hosted by Ken Gale. The second hour of a special two-hour show.Tuesday February 9, 2010 11:00amEco-Logic or Green Street 89 Play DownloadEco-Logic special 2 hour showOn drinking water, natural gas and hydraulic fracturing. Eco-Logic started an hour earlier than normal. Global Movements, Urban Struggles was preempted.Tuesday February 9, 2010 10:00amPublic Affairs 89 Play DownloadDemocracy Now! (expanded 2nd hour)Eamon Javers on the Secret World of Corporate Espionage and Moonlighting CIA Operatives. Daily Briefing was preempted.Tuesday February 9, 2010 9:00amNews 89 Play DownloadDemocracy Now!See headlines for February 9, 2010 at DemocracyNow.org.also more information concerning vaccines and moreintentionally induced brain impairment for profit..http://www.garynull.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/WPFW020910.mp3.as for me, i like ” keep your eyes on the road and yourhands upon the wheel.” j.m..and i have recently completed construction of a new thing and it is unique, a one of a kind, can’t be found anywhere else andis fantastic. soon the world of fretted string instrument players, that is guitarists and banjo players, will all need one.it is the claw hammer banjitar. appreciation, obviously, will vary. once established, this item will command a huge market.but … it takes quite a bit of work to construct properly andtime etc. so…. call me a crackpot! i recently was presentedwith a cracked pot for repair. as i found out repair of crackedpots, warped and cracked, is not really possible. cast iron,once warped and cracked is permanent. pictures availableupon request, if i can get a digital camera. but it is the soundand range that is the key, not the visual. the angels are in thedetails..and why the further production of this item will never occur.legacy infrastructure and associated costs. and all the profitwould be diverted to the bankers. why would anyone want to workfor them?.the bankers are the entrepreneurs? and the government! what isleft for the rest? obligation and debt, servitude.