RGE’s Weekly Roundup
Check out all of the RGE Analysis and EconoMonitor contributions that were published this past week on roubini.com and RGE’s Nouriel Roubini’s Global EconoMonitor, RGE Analyst’s EconoMonitor, Finance & Markets Monitor, Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor, Global Macro EconoMonitor, U.S. EconoMonitor, Emerging Markets Monitor, Asia EconoMonitor, Latin America EconoMonitor and Europe EconoMonitor.
Here are some of the highlights from RGE Analysis:
Nouriel considers whether the recent rise of gold prices is justified by fundamentals. Please see The New Bubble in the Barbarous Relic that is Gold. [Available only to RGE clients]
Rachel Ziemba argues that despite the capital injection from Abu Dhabi this week, Dubai Inc. is not out of the woods. Now that immediate debts have been paid off, it may be even more difficult to convince other creditors to take a haircut on the rest of debt coming due. See Abu Dhabi Delivers the Funds: What Next? [Available only to RGE clients]
In Ukraine-Russia Winter Gas Showdowns: No Money, No Gas, Jelena Vukotic looks at the possibility of a gas crisis occurring in Europe in 2010. On January 7, Ukraine’s bill to Russia for natural gas comes due, but with its IMF loan frozen and divisive presidential elections looming, Ukraine may not be able to pay it. [Available only to RGE clients]
In China Macro: 5Qs for 2010, Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba tackle the most important questions surrounding China’s economy in the coming year, including inflation, non-performing loans and commodity demand. [Available only to RGE clients]
On Nouriel Roubini’s Global EconoMonitor, Mikka Pineda considers the eerie resemblance in the psychological and economic backdrop of the mid-1930s and 2009—both historic junctures when recovery was thought to have begun— which raises concerns that the U.S. could be on the edge of a double-dip. Read Wednesday Note – Déjà Vu: Will the U.S. Undergo a Reprise of 1937?
On the RGE Analyst’s EconoMonitor, Rachel Ziemba considers some of the accomplishments from the climate talks in Copenhagen despite the road blocks and what is still possible as the talks come to a close. See Copenhagen’s Eleventh Hour.
On the Finance & Markets Monitor, discussion continues on how to handle financial regulation and reform. Please read:
Paul Volcker wants tough constraints on banks and their activities. See:
Wake Up, Gentlemen by Simon Johnson
Also on the Finance & Markets Monitor:
Matt Taibbi: Obama’s Big Sellout by Edward Harrison
FDIC Bank Failures by Barry Ritholtz
On the Global Macro EconoMonitor, as global leaders meet in Copenhagen to discuss climate change, Mark Thoma and Jeffrey Frankel offer their analysis. Please see:
Progress on Global Warming is not yet in Evidence in Copenhagen by Jeffrey Frankel
Defining Success for Climate Negotiations in Copenhagen by Mark Thoma
In Exit Strategy? Eastbound, Roberto Tamborini cautions that the fuel for the next big fire is public debt in the more advanced countries, and he offers a systemic approach to the systemic problem.
Also on the Global Macro EconoMonitor:
U.S. FDI, Growth, and the Capital Stock Abroad by Rebecca Wilder
Drug Money Saved Banks in Global Crisis? By Yves Smith
On the U.S. EconoMonitor, Robert Reich and James Kwak discuss health care, while James Hamilton looks at the evolving role of the Fed and Mark Thoma considers progressive taxes. Read:
A Few Words on Health Care Reform and Medicare Buy-In by James Kwak
Should the Fed be the Nation’s Bubble Fighter by James Hamilton
Should Taxes Be Progressive? by Mark Thoma
Also on the U.S. EconoMonitor:
Too Big to File Suit by Mark Thoma
Obama and the Fat Cat Bankers by Edward Harrison
The Final Days of the Great Liquidity by James Picerno
Better News on the Jobs Front: Layoffs Down, Temp Hiring Up by Laurel Graefe and Menbere Shiferaw
On the Asia EconoMonitor, Michael Pettis argues that despite the positive numbers reported by China, nothing has really changed. Real change, according to Pettis, will come through structural change and not through urban migration. See Is Urban Migration the Solution to China’s Problems.
In Consequences of Exposure to Violence, Ajay Shah considers India’s sustained peace and the benefits of avoiding exposure to violence.
On the Europe EconoMonitor, massive public debt and a bank collapse in Austria is cause for alarm- where is it heading? Please read:
Greece Risks Financial Armageddon while Ireland Makes Cuts by Edward Harrison
Greece Should Seek a Precautionary Standby…Now! by Models & Agents
How do the Baltic Countries Cope? by Karsten Staehr
Italy vs. Greece: The Public Debt Race by Paolo Manasse
Bank Collapse in Austria Brings Debt in Eastern Europe Center Stage by Edward Harrison
Is Austria set to Join the Honourable Company of PIIGs? by Edward Hugh
31 Responses to “RGE’s Weekly Roundup”
And the echo “First” reverberates throughout the empty meeting room.
GEAB N°40 is available! Spring 2010 – A new tipping point of the global systemic crisis: When the slip knot around public deficits is going to strangle Western states and their social security systemsLEAP/E2020 believes that the global systemic crisis will experience a new tipping point from Spring 2010. Indeed, at that time, the public finances of the major Western countries are going to become unmanageable, as it will simultaneously become clear that new support measures for the economy are needed because of the failure of the various stimuli in 2009 (1), and that the size of budget deficits preclude any significant new expenditures.If this public deficit « slip knot » which governments gladly placed around their necks in 2009, refusing to make the financial system pay for mistakes (2) is going to weigh heavily on all public expenditure, it is going to particularly affect the social security systems of the rich countries in always impoverishing the middle classes and the retired, and setting the poorest adrift (3).At the same time, the general context of the bankruptcy of an increasing number of states and other authorities (regions, provinces, federal states) will entail a double paradoxical event of increasing interest rates and the flight out of currencies towards gold. In the absence of an organised alternative to a weakening US Dollar and in order to find an alternative to the loss in value of treasury bonds (in particular US ones) all central banks will have, in part, to « reconvert to gold », the old enemy of the US Federal Reserve, without being able to state the fact officially. The bet on recovery having been, at this point, totally lost by governments and central banks (4), this Spring 2010 tipping point is thus going to represent the beginning of the huge transfer of 20,000 billion USD of « ghost assets » (5) in the direction of the social security systems of the countries which have accumulated them.In GEAB N°40, the LEAP/E2020 team develops its anticipations on these various subjects, whilst also giving a detailed appraisal of its 2009 anticipations which achieved an overall success rate of 72% (6). Finally our researchers unveil their recommendations regarding this month in particular: commercial real estate, currencies and expatriates’ revenues.http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-40-is-available!-Spring-2010-A-new-tipping-point-of-the-global-systemic-crisis-When-the-slip-knot-around-public_a4093.html
More leap 20/20First of all, one must remember that Greece remains the country above all others, which badly managed its EU accession. Since 1982, different Greek governments have done nothing but use the EU as an inexhaustible source of subsidies, without ever taking steps to modernise the financial and social framework of the country. With nearly 3% of GDP coming directly from Brussels in 2008 (10), Greece is indeed a country which has been on a European drip-feed for almost thirty years. The actual deterioration in the country’s public finances is, then, only another step in this drawn-out development. The Eurozone leaders have known for a long time that the Greek problem would materialise one day.But with a country producing 2.5% of the Eurozone’s GDP (and 1.9% of the EU’s) we are far from a dangerous situation weighing on the single European currency and the Eurozone. By way of example, the California’s default (12% of US GDP) entails far more risks of destablisation of the Dollar and the American economy. Moreover, since the same analysts usually like to make lists of all the Eurozone countries facing up to a serious crisis in their public finances (Spain, Ireland, Portugal, to which we can add France and Germany), for the sake of completeness it should be pointed out that in the United States, besides the fact that the Federal State would be technically bankrupt (11) if the Fed weren’t printing Dollars in unlimited quantities for the purpose of buying, directly or indirectly, Treasury Bonds for an equal value, and besides California (the richest state in the Union teetering on the edge of the abyss for months), there are altogether 48 States out of 50 with growing budget deficits now (12). As summed up by the title of the December 14th edition of Stateline, an American website specialising in the US States and municipalities, said « Nightmare scenarios haunt the States », all the states of the United States are afraid of defaulting on their debt in 2010/2011.The Eurozone, which has the largest gold reserves in the world (13), also includes countries which accumulated budget surpluses until last year, a foreign trade surplus and a central bank which hasn’t turned its balance sheet into a pool of « rotten or ghost » assets (contrary to the Fed in the last 18 months). So, if the crisis in Greek public finances clearly indicates something, it is not so much Greece’s situation or a specific Eurozone problem, but a wider problem which is going to become much worse in 2010: the fact that Government bonds are now a bubble on the verge of exploding (more than 49,500 billion USD worldwide, a 45% increase in two years (14)).The deteriorating ratings published by US rating agencies since the Dubai crisis shows, as always, that these agencies don’t know how to (or can’t) anticipate these developments. Let’s remember that they didn’t see the sub-prime crisis coming nor the collapse of Lehman Brothers and AIG, nor the Dubai crisis. Because they are dependent on the US government (15), they are unable, of course, to directly blame the two at the heart of present financial system (Washington and London). However, they show from which direction the next big shock is going to come, State bonds… and in this field, the two countries with the most exposure are the United States and Great Britain.Besides, it is very instructive to see the subtle change in the tenor of the articles published by these agencies. In a few weeks we have gone from the same old explanation stating that the intrinsic quality of these two countries’ (16) economies and their management removes all risk of default on the part of their respective governments to a warning that, from 2010, it will be necessary to demonstrate these qualities and management skills in order to keep the coveted Triple A rating which allows borrowing at the lowest cost (17). If even the rating agencies start to ask for proof, it’s because things are going really badly.To finish on Greece’s case, our team feels that the current situation is a triple positive for the Eurozone:. it requires it to seriously consider the solidarity measures to put in place in this type of situation. The watchers are thus going to have to make a clear choice: either they treat Greece as an isolated example, or they treat it as a component of the Eurozone. But they can’t do both at once, adding the weakness of an isolated Greece to a weakened Eurozone caused by Greece.. it requires, at last, the Greek authorities to carry out an operation of « Truth » on the financial state of their country and allows the EU to push forward the necessary reforms, notably to substantially reduce endemic corruption and cronyism (18).. it should serve as an example to European governments (and others) who fudge economic and social statistics more and more, demonstrating that such fudging only results in plunging a country into crisis even more. Sadly, we are more doubtful on the idea that other leaders will follow the Greek Prime Minister’s example… certainly not before a change of government in Great Britain, the United States, France, or Germany.
Glad to be able to continue posting. Mish has a great post on the trouble behind China’s GDP. Having worked with Chinese companies and seen many factories around Guangzhou, I find all the information very likely to be accurate. Andy Xie refers to China’s Ponzi scheme. I’m not sure why he thinks it will unravel in 2011 rather than 2010. Maybe because China will keep spending to prop up appearances.
firs ,fir, fi ,fi, fu fu f f f ……
From LEAP/E2030 / GEAB N°40 above @ Guest:”… it requires, at last, the Greek authorities to carry out an operation of « Truth » on the financial state of their country and allows the EU to push forward the necessary reforms, notably to substantially reduce endemic corruption and cronyism (18).”It should be noted as we consider the volume, that are are three (3) types of prime societal “corruption” which are:1. A true democracy or anarchy (British definition) where those that govern observe objectively the Principles of Governance, integrity and social responsibility of all that governed (note: I use the word ‘that’) while remaining a small but effective unit never considered as a committee.2. A large governing political self-serving government body coupled financially to its bureaucracy and all that hangs off them, penetrating industry and all financial centres and sucking the financial and work resource out of a lawfully imposed reign of pretence and citizenry patriotism and fortified with large doses of fear and trepidation from outside (foreign) forces. Normally evolves from democratic principles through fascism and socialism to stalanism onto…3. The banana republic which arises from the complete revolution (as in continuity of evolution) as the unwashed adopt through rote and imitation, the preferences of their elected elite and extend these principles into that which is termed a chaotic society where interests seek reconnection, opportunity and power through liasons founded in aggressive strength, cunning and size.The timing of the cycle then, imo, is well into the beginnings of Stage 3, where the Fatt lady sings and I therefore suggest that any sort of corruptive reform or change of behaviours by “leadership” is highly unlikely and should not be expected – as President Obama has clearly demonstrated.Or, in the midst of Shrieks of Laughter (SOL) do not expect a sudden reversal in trends or “leadership” adopted principles as they are a result of breeding and educational paradigms over two to three generations.
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/23259.Published Dec 4 2006 by Energy Bulletin, Archived Dec 4 2006Closing the ‘Collapse Gap’: the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the USby Dmitry Orlov….My conclusion is that the Soviet Union was much better-prepared for economic collapse than the United States is.I have left out two important superpower asymmetries, because they don’t have anything to do with collapse-preparedness. Some countries are simply luckier than others. But I will mention them, for the sake of completeness..One area in which I cannot discern any Collapse Gap is national politics. The ideologies may be different, but the blind adherence to them couldn’t be more similar..It is certainly more fun to watch two Capitalist parties go at each other than just having the one Communist party to vote for. The things they fight over in public are generally symbolic little tokens of social policy, chosen for ease of public posturing. The Communist party offered just one bitter pill. The two Capitalist parties offer a choice of two placebos. The latest innovation is the photo finish election, where each party buys 50% of the vote, and the result is pulled out of statistical noise, like a rabbit out of a hat.In terms of racial and ethnic composition, the United States resembles Yugoslavia more than it resembles Russia, so we shouldn’t expect it to be as peaceful as Russia was, following the collapse. Ethnically mixed societies are fragile and have a tendency to explode.In terms of religion, the Soviet Union was relatively free of apocalyptic doomsday cults. Very few people there wished for a planet-sized atomic fireball to herald the second coming of their savior. This was indeed a blessing…… at link entire piece..http://www.garynull.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/GaryNullShow121809Part1.mp3.interview g. null and dmitri orlav. audio..o.o.o.o.
The War TrapBy Ernest PartridgeDecember 18, 2009..http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article24216.htm..SWORDS INTO PLOWSHARES”There is a need to create ideals even when you can’t see any route by which to achieve them, because if there are no ideals then there can be no hope and then one would be completely in the dark, in a hopeless blind alley.” Andrei SakharovIf these “paranoid” suspicions are even partially correct – if the military-industrial complex has a death-grip on our economy and politics – how can we possibly escape? After all, just about the only thriving manufacturing enterprise remaining in the United States is the defense industry. If the Department of Defense appropriations were cut to a “reasonable” one-third, would not unemployment skyrocket and tax revenues plunge? Would not our already sick economy lapse into critical condition? In short, can we afford peace?We can and we must, for the environmental and resource perils immediately before us far outweigh any military threats, either real or imagined.If managed skillfully, a drastic cut in the military budget, far from aggravating the current economic crisis, can lead us out of it. After all, we’ve done it before. Just as, in 1942, the U.S. economy mobilized from a peacetime to a war economy in months, and then, in 1945, reversed the process in less time and led to a sustained era of prosperity, we can do it again.What it will take is a unified sense of national purpose – a realization that as we take leave of a fictional crisis, we are facing an actual global emergency: global warming and the end of the petroleum age.And just as World War II ended the great depression of the thirties, the new crises might put an end to the present economic emergency and inaugurate a renaissance of education, research, development, and industrialization, which means innovation, jobs and investments. New sources of energy and modes of transportation might be developed and installed. The next generations must then be educated to deal with the new world that we are leaving to them.Simply stated, the military-industrial complex must not be dismantled, it must be converted.All this is possible. But as long as the present political and economic structures prevail, I fear that it is very unlikely.Quite frankly, I don’t see a way out. I’m not saying that there is no escape, just I can’t see one. But history has a way of surprising us. In 1933, new leaders took power in Germany and in the United States. One led his nation to ruin, and the other to renewal. “Two roads diverge…”I once believed that Barack Obama might be another FDR who might inspire and unite the American people to overcome the dreadful crisis that he inherited from the disastrous Bush regime. But now, that hope has faded as Obama has apparently been co-opted by “the enemy.”As I have often noted before, the situation before us appears to be hopeless: as hopeless as George Washington’s prospects at Valley Forge, as hopeless as Gandhi’s struggle against the British Empire, as hopeless as Martin Luther King’s Birmingham bus boycott, as hopeless as Andrei Sakharov’s protest against Soviet oppression.And yet, somehow, they all ultimately prevailed.In the final analysis, the oligarchs who own our government and control the media, however wealthy and powerful, are few. Their victims – all the rest of us – are many, and we are the ultimate source of their wealth and, through our passive acquiescence, of their power.Shakespeare’s Cassius spoke to us as well as to Brutus, when he said: “men at some time are masters of their fates. The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars but in ourselves that we are underlings.”
dark side of the moom. or room, or tomb, or womb ormoon. bloom. soom..Brain Damage(Waters) 3:50The lunatic is on the grass.The lunatic is on the grass.Remembering games and daisy chains and laughs.Got to keep the loonies on the path.The lunatic is in the hall.The lunatics are in my hall.The paper holds their folded faces to the floorAnd every day the paper boy brings more.And if the dam breaks open many years too soonAnd if there is no room upon the hillAnd if your head explodes with dark forebodings tooI’ll see you on the dark side of the moon.The lunatic is in my head.The lunatic is in my headYou raise the blade, you make the changeYou re-arrange me ’til I’m sane.You lock the doorAnd throw away the keyThere’s someone in my head but it’s not me.And if the cloud bursts, thunder in your earYou shout and no one seems to hear.And if the band you’re in starts playing different tunesI’ll see you on the dark side of the moon.”I can’t think of anything to say except…I think it’s marvelous! HaHaHa!”.Eclipse(Waters) 2:04All that you touchAll that you seeAll that you tasteAll you feel.All that you loveAll that you hateAll you distrustAll you save.All that you giveAll that you dealAll that you buy,beg, borrow or steal.All you createAll you destroyAll that you doAll that you say.All that you eatAnd everyone you meetAll that you slightAnd everyone you fight.All that is nowAll that is goneAll that’s to comeand everything under the sun is in tunebut the sun is eclipsed by the moon.”There is no dark side of the moon really.Matter of fact it’s all dark.”……………………………………….http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buPctKFyDn4.more joyous and holy noise! man, the fountainof noise! come forth and fourth, feast and fast, first!sun ra, sun science. outer spaceways incorporated..http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShNVSMK3CNY.repeats itself ….many new sun ra youtube things. a for tuneteller in joyous noise..we have all played to smaller audiences, doom…where the forthcoming voice is not even heardby the originator of the message.. babel…fishmade fish flesh. after all it is not abouthow many agree or engage. it is about whatvibrations become resonant. consciousness mayjust interfere for most “sane” people. the narrative/language/currency/instruments have become toxic andtangential and desperately synthetic. the well has beenpissed in, and worse, yet i remain optimistic even inthe face of greater degrees of messed up revealedon a daily basis..corruption is just another word for inequality, power, the currenthighest ideal. we should probably get around to doingsomething to clear up this apparently confusing anddeadly dynamic. power, energy, expenditures, waste, production..it is hard to believe all the energy that has been wastedproducing all the absolutely useless harm full garbage thatman kind is want to embrace or sell to his fellow fools.then transport it globally till it ends up in a landfill orpacific gyre or incinerator..ps. thank god no one reads this blog anymore, huh.i hope it wasn’t something i said. if so i would hopethe host would just cut me off for all our sakes asself control and a tempered and well mediated sociallyintegrated self image never took a shine in my direction.apologies offered here. can you smell the wood burning?.anyway and so it goes and here we go again …while everyone is living in fear of .. . everything includingtheir own next thought the “world”, nature including the nextthought, continue on and arrive peacefully enough and thisfact is just horrifying in itself and just adds to the tension.it is like a perpetual alfred hitchcock moment here. weknow the innkeeper is just waiting, watching, consulting withhis alter ego dead mother, plotting some psychotic justice.and the shower water is so warm………….obviously, we must just wait and see what happens. thatis what a good audience does when they have paid to seea full length feature film. watch and wait. that andpopcorn..time to go back into my “room” now, see ya. how i enjoythese forays into the general population.
languidity , sun ra.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUjOlmk4Lh8&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uYiyZHtqe4.SR7 – Dec. 12, 2009 The Still Report on the Economy
Speaking of the invalidity of “leadership”, its incompetence, ignorance and its stupidity in its quest to maintain its mortality, and its grovelling on-its=knees status; all, er, in its failure to arise as that creature so created by God: Misery just loves company!”The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.” My emphasis.Ho hum
When the state transforms investing into gambling, those of the house become the winners while outsiders pay for the bills…as long as they find enough victims to feed their greed.>There was a time when investment decisions had more to do with fundamentals than whether Bernanke would wake up tomorrow and decide it is time to stop the liquidity spigot (arguably, the only thing that matters these days). Indeed, if in the odd chance Bernanke is not reconfirmed by the Senate, the huge drop the market experienced last year when Congress refused to get Paulson’s first TARP version to be shoved down its throat, will seem like a Sunday morning picnic.In those long gone days when there was more to valuation than persistent bubble liquidity, investors used to look at arcana such as cash flow statement and balance sheets (and income statements as well, before the FASB decided to make a total mockery out of the joke that are “reported earnings”).
I can’t believe that I finally found this thread (on the “new” website). I can see by the number of comments that others may also be having that issue. Perhaps by burying this thread the way he has, the good Professor is subtly hinting that we all should move along. By the way the site looks really nice but I think I will take the hint and park elsewhere. Zero Hedge seems to have raced to the top of the financial blogosphere and is a community not unlike the old RGE.Cheers
same here.Where have all the posters gone? Long time passing. Gone to ZH, everyone.Still waiting to see what the short term and long term ramifacations of any health care legislation that emerges.Opitons for a 55 year old:Quit my orthopaedic surgical practice and go to office (non-operative) only?Rent out my office building rather than working my ass off to keep everyone employed?Sell everything and go to the Philippines?
frank zappa said..”Art is making something out of nothing and selling it.”"Communism doesn’t work because people like to own stuff.”"Music is the only religion that delivers the goods.”"Politics is the entertainment branch of industry.”"Government is the Entertainment Division of the military-industrial complex.”"Never stop until your good becomes better, and yourbetter becomes the best.”"The United States is a nation of laws: badly written and randomly enforced.”"Rock journalism is people who can’t write interviewing people who can’t talk in order to provide articles for people who can’t read.”"Some scientists claim that hydrogen, because it is so plentiful, is the basic building block of the universe. I dispute that. I say there is more stupidity than hydrogen, and that is the basic building block of the universe.”.and then he said other stuff ….
Actually the Greeks did a masterful job at EU accession. If they had been honest and forthcoming all along, they never would have been allowed to join. What is truly remarkable, perhaps portentious, is the fact that the rest of Europe knew in the back of their heads what was going on and let them get away with it. But it is not Greece that has them all spooked now, rather the portent that Spain and perhaps Italy might go the way of Greece with a far larger impact on the zone.As for CA, it will surely create havoc. You can count on a rescue that will test the limits of what remains of constitutional law in the US.
You can’t really say the Sovs were ‘prepared’ for collapse … it would be more correct to characterise it as the Sovs having less altitude from which to fall into their collapse. With the Sovs you certainly had a society full of people who had greatly diminished expectations, verus the people of the US who have felt like they owned the world for the better half of a century and will find the new world order an ugly step down.At least the Brits had the benefit of a far-flung empire being stripped away piece by piece, and even today they have the illusion of grandeur provided by the Commonwealth. The US unfortunately has fewer crown jewels to surrender before the barbarians arrive at the gate to collect their due.
Hubbs -Option 4: Ride it out as real changes won’t happen for another 10 years.You’ll be fine. This BS reform is the insurance industry’s bailout.
Suggestion. When the thread changes would someone please provide the link to the new thread – as this new site layout is definitely hard to negotiate. Thanks.
I don’t recall all the details, but I recently read that Greece holds a very large store of gold bullion relative to the size of their economy, and this offers some secondary security not widely recognized.Mine is a poor state, with the 3rd highest unemployment numbers in the country. Some things must change, and soon, or badly needed services will vanish. In a sobering article about local small businesses in Sunday’s paper, it is pointed out that the closings we see are going to continue, that there is too much competition in general and the little, local Mom & Pops simply cannot stand up to the chains saturating the land. This is especailly bad for local/state economies as roughly 45% of spending at local merchants is re-cycled back into the regional economy, but that number is only 14% for national chains.The situation we face in South Carolina is grim. Calyfornia & Michigan are worse, but we are catching up.Independent Contractor
Sadly, I agree.Governance in America has become totally corrupt. Every time an issue cries out for “reform” and Congress jumps in to “fix” things, the problem somehow ends up worse than before the “fix”. As soon as the rules are opened up for adjustments, the lobbysts rush in with their golden sentences and paragraphs that somehow get slid onto the books, and voila, the intent of the fix is magically reversed or detoured.This has nothing to do with one party or another. Anyone who thought it did before Obama should have their eyes opened by now. It looks like most Independents are coming to understand this as it has become so obvious to even casual observers. There is a deep sense of disgust that is growing in middle America.Independent contractor
To rise above the destiny awaiting America on the road we are on will require some type of revolution, or some kind of new politician (leader) who is willing to talk honestly and openly to the public. However, until there is much, much more pain, the public will not listen. It’s too much trouble, too hard to comprehend, and anyway, the Super Bowl is coming up soon and we are busy.Where is this leadership? Any ideas? I have 2 good eyes, and I don’t see any sign of competent, effective leadership. Maybe it takes a blindman to see.Independent Contractor
here it is Morbidhttp://www.roubini.com/roubini-monitor/258155/roubini_speech_and_interview_on_the_global_economy_and_latin_america_at_the_council_of_the_americas(for future referenced when you go to Roubini.com along the top of the page are five options (Home)- (Region)- (Topic -(Economicmonitors) -(NewatRGE)click on (EconomicmMonitors) and scroll down the page and a few lines down you will see on the left the heading (Nouriel Roubini’s EconoMonitor) – that is the thread that everyone was accustomed to. Under that heading are the current topics just like they used to be presented.I have no idea why they have made such a dramatic change to the site without providing a bit of guidance to its loyal followers – but in my experience in web design that is par for the course.Best of luck
gremlins at work on this site it would appear so I compressed the link using tinyurlMorbid here is the linkhttp://tinyurl.com/ykdn7cu
“it is like a perpetual alfred hitchcock moment here.”What a beautiful summation. Tks, bm.Independent Contractor
1,if the paradigm by which we live were in collapse itwould make sense that we would lose our ability to “see”,as the norms and standards would be in flux and we wouldhave no grounding, no fixed reference point, no northstar for “leader ship” to navigate by…analogy..leadership is consciousness. public figures in ascensionreflect the consciousness around them, they are like a mirror that channels and reflects the polity. they are not “leadership”. they do not even harbor the qualities of leadership in many instances. where is the fixed pointthat we are navigating by? is it peace? love? community?intellect and honesty? or is it fiat whim and prejudice and ignorance and force and violence?etc.. our public figures have no resonance here as theyhave become politicians for hire to special interest addictedto a failed model of humanity. the unknowing and uncaringhave claimed victory in brute stupidity and secretly rejoicein this ideal of image, fraud and enslavement.. unknowing….what we are missing here in america is a consciousness that understands itself, that can live with itself without running to distractionand denial. we need to know more and speculate less,grounded in a comprehension of the basics, cause and effect.every consciousness needs to stand up for itself, be dynamic, and realize the leadership role that is latentat its core. the confusion and distractions are everywherebut so are the solutions, waiting for a/many clear and attuned conscious beings to recognize the simple truthsthat man has been discovering for thousands of years.simple things that other species of the animal kingdom havemastered or encoded into their genetic framework millionsof years ago. and ongoing…..i think we suffer from adherence to failure and poor structural design. a critical and honest look at thestate of the norms and world etc..( what we have beendoing ) supports this idea. we can identify the criticalpoints of failure, then we can intervene and correct.however, one parties windfall is many others demise.this is by choice and intent, not naturally dictatedor random or karmic or necessary or even beneficial toanyone, appearances aside..as zappa said . ” stupidity is the basic building blockof the universe.” or something like that. that ishow we learn these things. to realize intelligencewe need to go through the suffering of stupidity. or,as my mom used to say … “use the head that god gave you,goddamnitanyhow.” that’s the way she spoke to herchildren, urging forethought as a means of avoidingthe suffering of stupidity.in short summary, we love war, to kill the living, steal their toys and resources and thengo to sleep to the resonant consequences. we areunconscious of it and have a narrative that says otherwisebut..to follow the narrative you must be blind as your eyeswould make the narrative a lie. consciousness is afeature of the universe that will not be denied, methinks.that is leadership. and it is all around us but iscautious and waiting to arise as it will not / can notbe born in the spot of its own destruction. there isa limit to the suffering in silence that one can tolerate.suffering serves a purpose and focuses attention.then we will see a dynamic shift against the special interests and a change of consciousness and paradigm andleader ship, navigating by a newly recognized fixed internal and external celestial point.imo. we will become conscious. and human and sapien. theyare among us! or we are among them? or we are them!
Fund Boss Made $7 Billion in the Panicby Gregory ZuckermanMonday, December 21, 2009provided byIn this comeback year for investors, David Tepper may have scored one of the biggest paydays of all.Mr. Tepper’s hedge-fund firm has racked up about $7 billion of profit so far this year—with Mr. Tepper on track to earn more than $2.5 billion for himself, according to people familiar with the matter. That is among the largest one-year takes in recent years.Behind the wins: a bet worth billions of dollars that America would avoid a repeat of the Great Depression.Through February and March, Mr. Tepper scooped up beaten-down bank shares as many investors were running for the exits. Day after day, Mr. Tepper bought Bank of America Corp. shares, then trading below $3, and Citigroup Inc. preferred shares, when that stock was under $1. One of his investors insisted more carnage loomed. Friends who shared his bullish beliefs were wary of aping his moves amid speculation that the government was about to nationalize the big banks.”I felt like I was alone,” Mr. Tepper recalls. On some days, he says, “no one was even bidding.”The bets paid off. A resurgent market has helped Mr. Tepper’s firm, Appaloosa Management, gain about 120% after the firm’s fees, through early December. Thanks to those gains, Mr. Tepper, who specializes in the stocks and bonds of troubled companies, manages about $12 billion, a sum that makes Appaloosa one of the largest hedge funds in the world.http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/108451/fund-boss-made-7-billion-in-the-panic?mod=career-leadership