Good as Gold – First!!!

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Warning – Warning – We are Doomed – Science has established the cause of our Doom – Repent Ye Sinners and Obama will save you”The Global Problem of Turbulence CoolingDec 11, 2009Could the widespread use of windmills be responsible for recent observations that the European continent is rapidly cooling?[Chairman] “This session of the Rotterdam Congress on Global Turbulence Cooling in the year of our Lord 1647 will now come to order. [Gavel strikes] Before the initial period of testimony and investigation begins, the chair recognizes brief opening remarks by Mijnheer de Dokter Jut Om Brom, the leading expert on windmill effects in climate change.”Mijnheer Om Brom has been studying the significant lowering of European temperatures since 1612, and has concluded that the then recent introduction of windmill pumping stations around the Netherlands, with their subsequent adoption in other countries as grain processors and irrigation devices for croplands, has led to an increase in wind turbulence throughout Europe and Western Asia.”Dutch scientists have been sounding the alarm about global turbulence cooling since it was realized in the last decade that a decline in cereal grain production, as well as the freezing of previously clear winter shipping lanes, is causing food shortages and population shifts to become serious threats to future prosperity.”Mijnheer Om Brom if you please.” [Applause from the panel and from the assembly][Om Brom] “Thank-you Mijnheer President. Thank-you members of this august body. As you all know, the windmill has come to symbolize the technological achievements of the Dutch inventive spirit. With the windmill, new lands have come to exist, raised up out the ocean, itself. The outstretched sails of a great wooden windmill represent the triumph of ingenuity over the forces of Nature that resist our growth. Other cultures have created new uses for the windmill, increasing the quality of foodstuffs, and developing more efficient ways to cultivate their land holdings.”However, with the windmill has come an unforeseen circumstance. As this chart indicates, temperature readings over the last thirty years from the steps of Saint Laurens Church right here in Rotterdam, show a steep decline when compared to those taken in the middle of the last century by the previous clergymen.”A team of internationally funded research scientists are now suggesting that it is the windmills that are causing this downward trend because of additional air turbulence generated by the vanes. As can be demonstrated by these graphed equations, turbulence is a direct result of spinning vanes and propagates outward, influencing the movement of surrounding airflow patterns.”These equations have been vetted by a number of independent study groups who agree that, with some adjustments for North Sea ice increases, along with a slightly warmer Mediterranean Ocean, the turbulence causes regional cooling. Although the models are complex, it is indisputable that human-made windmills will soon result in a global cooling crisis.””As the airflow becomes more chaotic, it is unable to hold sufficient heat, allowing that heat to dissipate. When heat dissipation increases, turbulence increases, resulting in an ever greater heat loss. We expect that within the next century, perhaps within the next ten to twenty years, turbulence will become so great that nonstop cold winds will cause an overall freezing of our country, eventually chilling the remainder of the continent.”[Chairman] “Very disturbing conclusions, Mijnheer Om Brom. What do you suggest as a course of action?”[Om Brom] “I have no other conclusion to offer than that an immediate program of windmill reduction be instituted. Also, because the major contributors to global turbulence are those who create the windmills, sell them and install them, I think that those nations who make the most use of windmills should be required to offset that use by buying “turbulence credits” from non-windmill nations. In that way, the non-windmill using countries may continue to increase their economic development, while not contributing to further turbulence.”Here is my Spanish colleague, Mijnheer Don Quixote to explain his views. He has already begun a private program that he hopes will result in fewer windmills in his own country. He has need for additional funding in order to carry that cause further.”[Chairman] “The chair recognizes Mijnheer Don Quixote.”[Don Quixote] “Gracias Senor Presidente. I have long desired to leave my village and take up the profession of knighthood, for I am spurred on by the conviction that the world needs my immediate presence. The order of knight-errantry was instituted to defend maidens, to protect widows, and to rescue orphans and distressed persons. Neither fraud, nor deceit, nor malice has yet interfered with truth and plain dealing.”[Chairman] “I understand, Mijnheer Quixote, that you have been engaged especially in a campaign to destroy as many windmills as you can find. It is a strong stand, yet may not be the most effective political posture.”[Don Quixote] “Truly I was born to be an example of misfortune, and a target at which the arrows of adversary are aimed.”[Chairman] “Is it your contention that these facts about global turbulence are true and deserve the maximum response?”[Don Quixote] “Facts are the enemy of truth. God, Who provides for all, will not desert us; especially being engaged, as we are, in His service.”[Chairman] “Thank-you Mijnheer Quixote. And thank-you Mijnheer de Dokter Om Brom.”Stephen SmithNothing changes…Ho hum

The people who are buying gold are betting that the relevant bubble is the US dollar–in essence, buying gold is a vote of confidence in the ineptness of Ben Bernanke.

It’s true that there has been a substantial contribution to the gold price due to recent futures speculation. Not surprising, really. Therefore, an adjustment can be expected. But the most noticeable thing about gold … is that no-one who holds physical metal is selling any of their the assets. That says something very important.PeteCA

Yes, for the large part, gold-bugs are not speculators, but long term investors. Speculators in gold might well get a bloody nose in the short term, but in the long term the gold-bugs will do much better than they would have done with stocks or US bonds, and history over the last quarter century supports this point of view.

If find it very coincidental that nary a peep about his from you until the “leaked” (stolen) e-mail.You have all the feel of being part of a propaganda package.

I liken gold to the fulfillment of the ultimate definition of a fiscal conservative: to CONSERVE wealth (not increase it through schemes etc.).

“Fix” the economy.[WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A controversial amendment to allow bankruptcy judges to modify mortgages so homeowners can avoid foreclosure will be voted on as part of sweeping bank reform legislation under consideration by the full House.The House Rules Committee on Thursday, which is charged with deciding which provisions can be attached to major legislation under consideration on the House floor, cleared a vote by the full chamber on dozens of provisions including the so-called "cram-down" measure to enable bankruptcy courts to reset mortgage terms."It's going to be contentious," said House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., after being questioned about whether he believes it will pass.The cram-down measure, which was introduced by Rep. John Conyers, D-Mich., chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, would allow bankruptcy courts to extend repayment periods, reduce interest rates and fees and adjust the principal balance of mortgages so homeowners can avoid foreclosures.]Why should the banks even care, as long as the fed continues allowing them to make free money in order cover the losses? Moral hazard not even an issue these days! Screw the people that did not buy into the bubble, sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to fall.hlowe

Because USA MBS were sold all over the world. First the MERS debacle and the ‘produce the note’ defence, now cramdowns? Try to find the cramed-down mortgage in an MBS – thats like making a pig from sausage. The whole MBS asset class will be completely worthless.

“You Americans have everything for your survival while we or I. if you prefer, ie, we in foreign countries, just wonder just how stupidly you trash the greatest country, and Co institutional Republic ever created by free men, for free men.”Peter … believe me. A growing number of us are wondering exactly the same thing.PeteCA

Ditto that, but sadly I fail to be able to envision a better way despite constant trying. Not sure if it is because of reading Animal Farm and The Fall of Rome at school, but I just don’t see any hope of real change, change that is for the good of the people of our great country.The banksters (TPTB) who own and operate the Fed also own and operate the Punch and Judy sideshow in Washington. They will not release their grip on power/debt (it’s one and the same) easily, as we saw in the Senate today.Yet across the land pitch forks are starting to stir in sinister ways.I really hope that 2010 will not see the financial maelstrom I’m expecting, because worry it may be more than a straw on an agitated camels back.

PLATINUMMM…. The MAXIMUS!Mis besos

Speaking of the Intellectual Revolution in Process:”We live in extremely dangerous times. The enemies of liberty are on the march, but they do not go unchallenged. More than that, the path of liberty is an inspiration, something to fight for, something to dedicate one’s life to. We have the theory and the praxis, and together they make a beautiful result.”@ Mises.orgHo hum

Considering the UN, USA, Obama, Benanke and “moral authority”: (SOL)”The New York Times Editorial of 21 November suggested that readers should not be too critical of President Obama’s recent visit to China… as he still trying to restore America’s moral authority! My first thought was: Restore what moral authority?”Keywords: SOL | moral | America | UNhttp://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=16399Ho hum

I can see lending contracting and drying up faster now.

Goldman Sachs Trading Should Get No U.S. Backstop, Volcker Sayshttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.O8G_pyd5ZE&pos=1

Yeah, I’m with you on this one Jason B – why the increasing spread between Gold and Silver prices. If that isn’t bubbly-hyped crap from investment houses pumping up Gold then I would like to know just why the big spread.

Yes, but just wait until the Sinators get their hands on it. It will be buried.Independent Contractor.

Obama’s Big Sellout-Matt Taibbi”Whatever the president’s real motives are, the extensive series of loophole-rich financial “reforms” that the Democrats are currently pushing may ultimately do more harm than good. In fact, some parts of the new reforms border on insanity, threatening to vastly amplify Wall Street’s political power by institutionalizing the taxpayer’s role as a welfare provider for the financial-services industry. At one point in the debate, Obama’s top economic advisers demanded the power to award future bailouts without even going to Congress for approval — and without providing taxpayers a single dime in equity on the deals.Barack Obama was still just the president-elect when it happened, but the revolting and inexcusable $306 billion bailout that Citigroup received was the first major act of his presidency. In order to grasp the full horror of what took place, however, one needs to go back a few weeks before the actual bailout — to November 5th, 2008, the day after Obama’s election.That was the day the jubilant Obama campaign announced its transition team. Though many of the names were familiar — former Bill Clinton chief of staff John Podesta, long-time Obama confidante Valerie Jarrett — the list was most notable for who was not on it, especially on the economic side. Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economist who had served as one of Obama’s chief advisers during the campaign, didn’t make the cut. Neither did Karen Kornbluh, who had served as Obama’s policy director and was instrumental in crafting the Democratic Party’s platform. Both had emphasized populist themes during the campaign: Kornbluh was known for pushing Democrats to focus on the plight of the poor and middle class, while Goolsbee was an aggressive critic of Wall Street, declaring that AIG executives should receive “a Nobel Prize — for evil.”But come November 5th, both were banished from Obama’s inner circle — and replaced with a group of Wall Street bankers.”How did we get here? It started just moments after the election — and almost nobody noticed.”http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/31234647/obamas_big_sellout

Nobel Prize Sky OmenOn the evening of 9 Dec. 2009 a failed Russian missile test produced the most startling display in the night sky over Norway. The next day the ObamaNation of Desolation accepted the Nobel Peace Prize in the midst of conducting two wars, orchestrating the criminal elite to further acts of rape and pillage of the small folk without meaningful reform… – well the list of achievements are endless. I guess next year prizes (prices) will come in economics, religion, miracle working, etc. can be expected to be forthcoming from those idiots in Norway who like to “meddle”…Omen In The Sky; Norway Spiral

Back when I used to comment very regularly on Roubini’s blog, I used to get asked for investment advice. The only stock I ever recommended was Hormel, on the basis that Spam would ensure it would outperform in the recession/depression to come. I’ve never been a fan of gold, knowing that it deflates as surely as everything else in a deleveraging spiral.I’m pleased to see that not only has Hormel outperformed for several years now, but Roubini has endorsed Spam over gold as well.@ Professor Roubini: I like the new site, but I hope it doesn’t go subscription only here in the comments as suggested above.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/12/10/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry5961370.shtml.the committee offered the nobel peace prizeto “barack hussein obama” ,” president ” of the unitedstates of america. the award was accepted bythe “commander in chief” of the armed forces ofthe united states of america. it seems we have at least three different entities here making claimof acceptance of this “prize”.i think the acceptance speech reflects thisconfusion. now, will the real president ofthe united states please return to oslo andpick up his prize. the three imposters reflectedin the speech will not do..at the heart of the confusion is the lack ofcomprehension of the term “peace”. a lack of appreciation of the dynamics of its power as itrelates to social structure and function. “leadership”, and that “moral authority” term.the system kills the man who attempts to functionboth as “commander in chief” and “executive” as theseare really two diametrically opposed functions,especially in something like a “global power”. thisshould be obvious, and perhaps is, and this maybe why this american “global power” is repeatedly driven to mutate its top executive into a commanderin chief by special interests / too big to failglobal institutions. ie fincance, energy, armamentand their cadre of support, academia , media, etc..read the speech and you hear their voices. barackhussein obama never even showed up in oslo. the speech tells the story of a man who dares not leadeaither as an executive or a commander and certainly not a spiritual leader. he mixes it all up and hintsat truth but refuses to explore it. he has acceptedhis title/s and prize and fallen victim to his own warnings. read it..peace is the source of the self not an externaldestination. you can’t impose it at gunpoint orthreat of death. you cannot execute your way to it.he is young, but he should know being he has receivedand accepted such an honor. a commander may beforgiven and an executive may be forgiven for notknowing, but not an individual man..not to mention no one brought up natural resourcesduring the sometimes pretty speech. no one brought up the fact that we are chained to ancostly infrastructure that has apparently unaffordable, wearing out, and soon obsolete;and this causing conflict..”clear eyed”. i don’t think so.

Damn, Taibbi just keeps them coming, doesn’t he?He should probably start looking to change his identity…

Interesting slants.

What does “real change” mean? I’m sincere.PNAC (Progress for a New American Century) also suggested that real change was necessary; they also noted that it would come only through some sort of big impact event like Pearl harbor.

I think people are mixing up “understanding” with “caring.” I believe that they understand (most stuff is accomplished through their advisers, who are, in almost all cases, turnstile-ers from [the top of] the corporate world), it’s just that they don’t care.All those on the thrones of power are there to maintain the power centers.

LB,You are last one I would choose to debate, but I must disagree on your gold position.I refer to latest edition of Roy W. Jastram’s The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience 1560-2007with update material by Jill LeyLand.In a nutshell, the value of gold is constant regardless of momentary government intervention, regardless of inflation,and most surprisingly, regardless of deflation. Jastram identifies six periods of gold flux:1. 1560-1700 Gold and commodity prices rise, diminishing gold’s purchasing power.2. 1701-1792 Gold stable but commodity prices fluctuating above and below gold.3. 1793-1821 Napoleonic Wars4. 1822-1914 Gold stable but commodity prices fluctuating above and below gold.5. 1915-1930 Commodity prices wildly fluctuating; gold also fluctuates, but in a much narrower range.6. 1931-1976 Soaring gold prices; Commodity price revolution. [Fiat money effect.]Most surprising, Jastram observed that “operational wealth” of gold appreciated in major deflations.He noted that gold was ineffective (sometimes backwards) as a year-to-year hedge against commodity price increases.And he saw that gold maintains it purchasing power over the long periods because inflated and deflated commodityprices return to gold’s price.As demostration it was noted that in the last 2,000 years there have been five great coins that have held theirvalue:The Roman solidus which became the Byzantine nomisma,the Islamic dinar,the Venetian ducat,and finally, the British sovereign.If it were not for Gresham’s law of bad money pushing out good under legal tender laws, these coins could be used in trade today.So Hormel was $18.20 in 2000 and now it’s approaching $40, not bad 100% gain.But gold was $300/oz in 2000 and now it’s approahing $1,200, even better 400% gain.Gold is not an investment, it’s a protector and I am sticking with physical gold and I bet you are as well.PS: I do plan on paying, so this may be my last post…

So far diz Xmas season goes to the bulls. The employment report, November retail sales, the WLI growth rate ticked positive ofter 7 weeks of decline. I will wait for the new year with an almost perfect hedge (i.e., market exposure close to zero).

I have been seeking for some time the Cause of the collapse of the USA, the greatest and, until now, most successful Constitutional Republic devised by mere men; as the readers here are aware I have read the preamble and other documents surrounding the formation of the Constitution and have noted the almost immediate attempts to ‘control’ the government of the USA from the outset.So in very simple terms I submit the following conclusion that I have reached at this time which some may find interesting and worthy of some consideration:”I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country.A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit.Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation,therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men.We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completelycontrolled and dominated governments in the civilized world.No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government byconviction and the vote of the majority, but a government bythe opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.”From Woodrow Wilson after signing the Federal Reserve Act in 1913Please note that there is no source quoted for the first two sentences.http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quotes_by/woodrow+wilsonObservation: Nothing can be controlled whereby it has been observed that the power of the wheel lies clearly in the axle, where there is nothing! The wisdom of governance is responsibility and subtlety. The sense of governance must, a priori, be qualitative and not as now, quantitative and opined. Interpretation is best left resting heavily in the words employed in the original sense lest trickery and imagination is allowed to run amok by vested interests.The original US Constituted and Declaration of Independence provided the socio-economic structure for freedom and growth which exploded across a land rich beyond imagination and became the Universal beacon of freedom and opportunity.Then came lobby, fear, greed and lust for power, or IOW the vested interests, not interested in innovation and profitability from one’s own capacity, but the imposition of faith-based fears and rewards for profit without work; honest work. A Prime Maxim of Physics is that nothing can be created ex nihilo while the US Constitution provides for the freedom of men to pursue liberty, justice and the pursuit of happiness. It does not provide for utilizing the Constitution or the Constitutional Republic known as the United States of America, themselves for personal gain.IOW, the structure represented by these aforesaid documents remains, a priori, the structure and infrastructure for all, in equal proportion, precisely, and must be delivered up in the same terms as a pound of flesh, but nary a drop of blood.Governance then, in my opinion, of the USA has become the dinner of the few and includes blood bone and flesh where opinion rules as swayed and paid by vested interests, which contrive to bias the faith-based corrupt ideologies of ignorant pseudo academics lead around by the nose by slicks and enterprising confident tricksters, while the original Constitution (termed ‘just a god-damned piece of paper’ by former President George W Bush, and he didn’t think that up by himself) lies shredded and forgotten in the dumpster behind the White House.Or, if you prefer, the USA has reached frenzied height of irrationality which in biological terms must be called for what it is, that is to say, extremis or that time and state when cancer has taken permanent control of the entity and the final throes of objection are expressed, albeit far too late, in involuntary panic.In conclusion, it appears to me that you Americans have grown ignorant of your origins, awhile becoming totally ignorant of history and the fundamentals of life and social organization, even in basic terms and now believe that you or that person whom you believe represents your interests, alone, but doesn’t, a priori, can provide governance upon which you can suck upon as the maternal teat, ad infinitum, and at pleasure whereby you cannot and your Constitution didn’t provide for your personal pleasures, it provided for your freedom and pursuit of happiness (as well as the right to bear arms to protect you from your own government – IOW your Constitution foresaw the inevitability of breeding your own demise).Keyword: pursuit | respect | extremis | cancerAs I have said before, the structure of the USA has been irreparable violated and assaulted from within while the answers to this dilemma will not come from faith-based ideologues and carpet bagging opportunists, fools and clowns, but by men as least as formidable and worthy as the original Fathers of the USA, in current terms.My message: Men cannot govern as they are pioneers first and foremost. We must devise a structure (similar to the original charter of the USA – that is, minimal change, if any) and abide by it through minimal and responsible governance – er, as opposed to popularised democracy); it is the next logical step in our evolution and we can ease into it intellectually or be forced into it through the hands of our own destructive force.Ho hum

Regarding new site format, it appears to me that if one has “registered”, one only needs to login with current username & password. I have been registered for past year & half and have consistent access to the non-premium content at no cost. I think this will continue. Of course they would like everyone to pay for the full Premium package, but realistically know that will not happen.Simply registering is pretty painless and I have seen no adverse consequences from it. So login or register anew and pretty much same-old, same-old.

As in Bull-Shiters.

No centralization of power. That is essential.I’m not a solutions guy (because nothing is ever “solved,” and when anyone proposes “solutions” they are usually oppressive), but the closest to an evolutionary governing structure that I’ve run across would be Murray Bookchin’s Libertarian Municipalism: not to confuse libertarian with the term stolen by modern day mutations from the Republican party.

The congress is not year after year loaning taxpayer’s money to speculators at negative interest rates (in effect paying speculators to borrow money). Much of this money is converted to foreign currency and used in ways detrimental to US interests (e.g. “betting” against the dollar).

Ilargi: Jim Rogers is right.There is no recovery in the American economy.Things have only gotten worse, and a lot too. Still, Rogers can’t help seeing the world through his own subjective eyes either, distorted by his age and his professional views. He makes money as an investor, and can’t imagine a world in which investors like him are not part of the landscape.And that’s the big blind spot for most analysts, publications and websites that occupy themselves with finance and the economy. They’re written by people who make a living because the economy is organized a certain way, and they see a situation in which that will mostly continue to be so, with some more or less minor tweaking. Rogers understands a lot of what’s coming, but he stops short of pondering himself as a victim. This may be completely natural and logical, but it does potentially cloud his vision. For him, the question is where to invest, not whether to invest at all.But, again, he’s right. There’s no recovery. A Bloomberg piece this morning illustrates why. It says that China’s Q3 output was up 19.2%, with exports down 1.3%, and imports up 26.7%.China’s growth accelerated to 8.9 percent in the third quarter on the record lending and a $586 billion, two-year stimulus package, helping Asia to lead the recovery from the global economic slump.The Chinese government injects a comparatively gigantic amount of money into the economy, which the banks use to hand out record loans. And that, all by itself, says Bloomberg, makes Asia (re: China) lead the recovery from the slump. This is the gospel according to Washington, the gospel of Barack Obama and George W. Bush. The first is on record claiming that the US can “spend its way out of the recession”, the second became famous for encouraging people to go shopping in the face of economic hardship. In other words, as Jim Rogers phrases it:”The idea you can solve a problem of too much debt and too much consumption with more consumption and more debt defies belief. I cannot believe that grown-ups would stand there and say that.”Well, Jim, grown-ups in governments ranging throughout history and across the globe have stood there, and today stand there, saying exactly that. By the way, if I were you, I would, but that’s just me, in the light of the Chinese embrace of the Washington “spend and borrow your way out of debt” gospel, perhaps take another look at your own embrace of the Chinese economic model.It would feel more consistent, since China of course has no genuine recovery either. Its exports are still falling, but its output rose 19.2%. In other words, the Chinese will have to buy their own products. Problem is, they don’t feel like doing it. According to Michael Pettis, Chinese household consumption is 35% of its economy, vs 55-65% in Europe and 70-72% in the US. And its consumption isn’t rising fast, if at all, either. What is rising are savings, presently at 26%, vs a negative savings rate in the US until recently. Pettis asks an intriguing question about China:”Crises seem to drive the household consumption rate down, even though bull markets don’t seem to drive it back up. Is that because crises cause households to worry about risk (although if that were true they wouldn’t go permanently down, would they)? Or is it because the government responds to crises by increasing the amount of misallocated investment, the consequence of which is to reduce future consumption?”So what would it take to drive Chinese consumption upwards towards levels that might sustain at least part of its economy if and when American and European export markets don’t rise from their ashes? Pettis says:Just to return consumption to 40% of GDP over the next five years (and even that level is widely considered to be way too low, and probably unprecedented in the world excluding recent Chinese history), 8% average annual growth rates in GDP would require a tad under 11% annual growth in consumption. [..]To bring Chinese consumption in 20 years up to 50% of GDP, which is the low end for other high saving Asian countries, and far lower than any other large economy in Asia (and remember that large economies are less able to rely on exports to fuel growth than small countries), 7% annual GDP growth would require average annual consumption growth of just under 9% for twenty years.In other words while GDP growth slows significantly from its 12-13% rate of the past several years, consumption will nonetheless have to surge at rates far in excess of the 8-9% growth rates of recent years in order for even a small, partial rebalancing to take place.One thing should become clear now: China won’t be able to run its economy on domestic demand for many years to come. Until then, it will rely on western consumers, who are broke, and on government subsidies, i.e. consumption of its own flesh. Whatever the choice may be, a 19.2% increase in Q3 2009 output looks a lot like despair. Who will buy all that extra output? There are no extra clients anywhere on the horizon.Just as is the case in the US, people like the Bloomberg reporter quoted above confuse government funding with credit. Of course, if you ask no questions, both may look pretty much the same. But that doesn’t mean they are. You can’t be both the seller and the buyer of your own products and still claim you’re making a profit.The Chinese are trying to kick-start economy with their own reserves. But once the engine runs, if it does, it’ll need somewhere to go, someone to purchase its products. That someone will have to have a trade surplus, i.e. money to spare. The Americans don’t have any. They are trying to kick-start their economy with borrowed money, which means they are increasing their already sky-high debt levels. Which is why Jim Rogers is dead-on when he says that there is no recovery, and things have only gotten worse in the past year.You wouldn’t know it from looking at the stock markets yet, but if you imagine the economy as a closed system, which in the thermodynamics definition can exchange heat and work (energy), but not matter, with its surroundings, it becomes clear that whatever happens inside the system doesn’t solve any problems, but merely transfers wealth (heat) from one part of the system to the other. That is, while banks and investors have been making money over the past 6-month rally, someone else has been losing out.To figure out who, you need look no further than the record numbers of American citizens who are unemployed, homeless and/or living on foodstamps. The system as a whole shows no recovery, just parts of it do due to increased misery in other parts. Moreover, what does enter the system from outside is borrowed money that needs to be repaid. This should also make clear why printing money cannot solve any of the existing problems. For one thing, America’s largest creditor is China, which has its currency pegged to the dollar. No gains there.In more general terms, much, if not most, of what is seen as wealth consists of nothing but leveraged bets. Which is how a home that cost $100,000 to build comes to sell for $500,000. This wealth will have to be deleveraged, until things are worth what they are, i.e. they have a price someone is willing and able to pay for them. In the absence of cheap and abundant credit, that is.All countries are chasing the same remaining pieces of the pie, which can only be obtained by increasing one’s exports, or, more correctly and comprehensively, one’s trade balance. And since the world economy as a whole can also be considered a closed system, the only possible turn of events in this case too is wealth transfer. Which can be achieved, as noted, by an increase in exports, or possibly through warfare. It cannot be achieved by printing one’s own currency. That could function (temporarily, until hyperinflation sets in) only if the system were what thermodynamics defines as an isolated system, i.e. no exchange whatsoever with the outside world.Since the US depends on the money it borrows from outside its borders, it is as yet far from being an isolated system. It can try to devalue its currency, but so can any other country. The US has an added disadvantage in the fact that the US dollar is the world reserve currency, which means people will flee to it in times of global stress and uncertainty. Which in turn will push up the dollar’s exchange rate.Once the US is cut off from the rest of the global economy, either forcibly or voluntarily, it may or may not go the way of Weimar and Zimbabwe, both more or less isolated systems in an economical sense. That moment, though, is years away.Until then, to quote Jim Rogers once more, things will only get worse if the present “spend your way out of misery” gospel continues to rule our ways. Just look at how much more debt, most of which is owed to foreigners, the US has compared to a year ago. It runs in the trillions. In just one year.Rogers is right again when he notes that Obama was merely a community organizer just 6 years ago, doesn’t understand economics, and relies entirely on the people he nominated in his economic team. But that is not a valid excuse.A headline in French weekly Le Point yesterday said : “Warlord Obama receives his Nobel Peace Prize”. Being the President of the United States means you can’t wreck the nation’s economy and plead innocence or ignorance. Neither does it mean you can send 30,000 extra young Americans into battle and pick up a Peace Prize one week later. He could have refused the prize. And probably should have. Or, as someone suggested, sent an unmanned drone to pick it up for him.Jim Rogers is buying American dollars. You?

Thank God there’s some sort of social safety net in this country. Remember, in the 1930s, there was nothing like the food stamp program. I’ve read that something like 40% of inductees in WWII were rejected as 4-F due to the effects of chronic malnutrition during the Great Depression.SWK

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-blasts-banks-for-apf-2766740549.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=this Obafoon is piece of shit. the only way to restore good practice to wall street1>let them fail if they screw up2>financial institutions need to delever, straigten its lending practice3>abolish affordable housing crap GSE and FHA4>abolish FED that constantly messing up risk reward premium and people’s saving’s purchase power.

Roubini Blasts “The Barbarous Relic,” Recommends Spam Over GoldTyler Durden’s pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/12/2009 11:27 -0500In a headline piece on roubini.com, Nouriel Roubini writes an extended article slamming both gold bugs, and the so-called gold bubble, which he believes is far too volatile, and which, contrary to ever increasing claims to the opposite, will likely not get to the mythical price of $2000/ounce, and instead will head lower. The argument presented, as is widely the case, boils down to the trifecta of i)gold having no industrial utility, ii) no intrinsic value (no associated cash flow streams) and iii) costing an arm and a leg to store. While Roubini’s thesis is attractive on the surface (if somewhat Keynesian and thus often reiterated by mainstream Economists), we present some counter arguments to Roubini’s thesis.Roubini summarizes the current situation:In the last nine months, concerns about a global depression have dissipated and the global economy is recovering from its worst recession in decade; deflation is still gripping the global economy as the slack in goods and labor markets persists at high levels. So why have gold prices started to rise sharply again in the last few months, in spite of no near-term risk of inflation or of depression? And could gold prices rapidly rise towards $2000?On the one hand, the Doctor does see the pro-gold argument, which he highlights in five main points:There are several reasons why gold prices are gradually rising, but they do not suggest a rapid rise toward $2000; at most they suggest a gradual rise with significant risks of downward correction.* First, while we are still experiencing global deflation, there are rising concerns that inflation may reemerge forcefully in the medium term because of large monetized fiscal deficits.* Second, a massive wall of liquidity—borne of easy monetary policy—is chasing assets. Some of those assets include commodities like oil and base metals—the rise of which could eventually become inflationary.* Third, dollar funded carry trades and a more generalized portfolio allocation to non-dollar assets (especially EM assets) are pushing the U.S. dollar sharply down. There is an inverse relation between the value of the dollar and the dollar price of commodities: the lower the dollar the higher the dollar price of oil and other commodities, including gold. The rise of gold in euros has been much more muted.* Fourth, the global supply of gold—both existing and newly produced—is limited, and demand is rising faster than supply over the medium term. The recovery of the global economy has started a revival of retail gold demand especially in India. Central banks looking to diversify their portfolios account for further demand—see for instance, the recent increase in gold holdings by emerging market central banks. Most of the increase in demand comes from private investors using gold as a hedge against low probability tail risks of high inflation and another near depression caused by a double dip recession. Inflation risk and the risk of a double-dip are both low, suggesting lower gold prices, but increasingly investors want to hedge against such risks early on. And given the inelastic supply of gold, it only takes a small shift in the portfolios of central banks and private investors to boost increase the price of gold significantly.* Finally, as sovereign risk is rising—see Dubai, Greece and other emerging markets and advanced economies—the concern about sovereigns not being able to back stop too-big-to-save financial system could rise again.On the other, Roubini, sticking to the Socratic method, lays out the counter argument for a quick drop in gold prices:* First, the dollar carry trade may at some point unravel, popping the global asset bubble that this carry trade has fueled.* Second, central banks will eventually need to exit quantitative easing and effectively zero policy rates, which will put downward pressure on risky assets including commodities.* Third, bouts of global risk aversion may occur as the global recovery may turn fragile, anemic and subpar, thus leading to a rise in the U.S. dollar that would drive down prices of commodities and gold in dollar terms.* Fourth, since the carry trade and the wall of liquidity are causing a global asset bubble, some of the recent rise of gold is also bubble driven by herding behavior and momentum trading, pushing gold higher and higher. But all bubbles eventually crash and the bigger the bubble the bigger the eventual crash.* Fifth, the effect of rising sovereign risk on gold prices is ambiguous, as the events of recent weeks suggest. A risk in such risk could push up the price of gold if it leads to expectations that central banks will eventually monetize those fiscal problems. But in practice it has weighed on the price of gold because it has increased investors’ risk aversion and led to a rush into a different (and more liquid) asset than gold—e.g. the U.S. dollar—thus pushing gold prices down. In general, gold always competes with fiat currencies and anything that is dollar bullish—like repeated bouts of global risk aversion—tends to be gold bearish.At the heart of Roubini’s argument is a principle that is self-evident when one looks at the price dynamics of various asset classes today: that inflation is still in check. Of course the threshold between reserve accumulation by FR banks (which is now at ~$1.2 trillion) and all that excess money spilling over is all the stands between an environment of muted “disinflation” and runaway, spiraling and uncontrollable hyperinflation. And should the Fed lose control over a runaway monetary train, Gold at $2000 will be a distant memory. But more on that in a second. First, Roubini on why gold bugs’ expectations will soon be dashed:Thus, the gold bugs are wrong—or at least very, very premature—in justifying buying gold as an attack on fiat currency. The velocity of money is still low or falling—the opposite of a currency crisis or run on the dollar. As a further indication of the collapse of credit/money multipliers, indicators of expected inflation are subdued or falling, despite governments printing money (excess reserves). The high inflation scenario may be constrained even if/when easy money gains too much traction, as the yield curve would steepen sharply, raising the discount rate for risky private sector debt and for corporate equity, limiting the speed of the recovery and hence the ability of states to impose inflation surprises in the context of shortening average debt maturities.Finally, let’s assume the global economy double dips and concerns about near depression and sharp deflation reemerge. Should investors hold gold in that world? In a true world of near depression, gold bars are pretty much useless. Keynes referred to gold as a “barbarous relic.” Unlike other commodities, it has little intrinsic value. Much like a fiat currency, gold’s value is based largely on the irrational beliefs of investors. In a depression or near depression, one would be better off stockpiling canned food and other commodities like oil that are useful for riding out Armageddon. You cannot eat gold or burn gold.Roubini concludes:Investors should thus be wary of getting the gold bug and being stuck with this barbarous relic. The recent swings in gold price—up 10 percent one month, down 10 percent the next—prove the point that gold has little intrinsic value and that most of its price movements are based on beliefs and bubbles. As an insurance policy against the tail risk of eventual inflation, it may be useful to hold a small amount of gold in one’s portfolio, but stocking up portfolios with a fiat currency that has marginal practical use, a zero nominal interest rate, high storage costs, and the price of which is subject to volatile whims and bubbles is totally irrational. If you want to hedge against inflation, stock up on Spam or other canned food or buy futures on commodities that have more physical uses and consumer demand.We disagree with the professor across a few key points. As Dr. Roubini himself will acknowledge, the primary reason for the rapid “improvement” in asset valuations, and the postponement of the double dip/next leg of the depression, is solely due to global central banks having themselves onboarded private sector asset exposure as the very last option to prevent an all out collapse of the financial system: individual sovereigns’ taxpayers are now the owners of what used to be Merrill’s toxic CRE loan bonanza. Whereas a year ago the collapse of Goldman would have been possible without it also involving an at least technical default by the US, we are now beyond such capitalist flights of fancy, courtesy of the Bernanke Put (let alone the discussion of what the MTM mismatch of the central bank balance sheet is – courtesy of increasingly more lax accounting standards, the spread between fair value and book value, as we have reported, keeps increasing and could potentially be a 20%+ delta). These assets need to produce cash flow, which they do not, or at least not to a point where the Fed’s balance sheet is self-sustainable. Which explains the massive money printing, via QE, although as pointed out the actual cash does not hit circulating money, but merely ends up at the banks, earning 0.25% (why not: on $1.2 trillion it amounts to $3 billion a year in absolutely risk-free taxpayer subsidies). The main reason, as Zero Hedge will shortly show, why the dollar keeps getting pillaged versus its main counterpart, the euro, is that while the Eurozone balance sheet has stayed flat, courtesy of a mortgage bubble that never hit the ludicrous size of its US counterpart, the US Federal Reserve “assets” keep rising, and at a rate which is the inverse of incremental dollar devaluation.In essence the only reason why gold has appreciated less in terms of Euros is thanks to US generosity to assimilate European toxic asset losses, via an osmotic, and nearly 1-to-1 increase in equity markets between America and Europe. In this way, even as the euro continues not devaluing, the implicit Eurozone inflation is still nonetheless occurring, courtesy of increasing equity values, which happen purely on a sympathetic reflex to what the S&P is doing in New York. Another interesting observation are the comparable rates of expansion of the balance sheets of China and US – once again China is taking advantage of not only the dollar peg, but of it having even less a vocal political system to keep the printer in check (i.e., the absence of its own version of Ron Paul allows it print its way to “9% GDP prosperity” every year). At the end of the day, the Fed can only carry the burden of importing global inflation so long before the need to tighten is the opportunity cost of the Fed Chairman’s job (and the ruling party’s continued majority in the House and the Senate). And this is precisely the day that gold bugs live for.Mr. Roubini is wrong on one key argument: gold bug mania is not so much driven by the dream of fiat currency destruction (we all know the race to the bottom is on everywhere except in Europe which as discussed above has it own unique set of circumstances), but by the volatility in the actual reversal from expansion to contraction monetary phases. The Fed is in uncharted monetary policy territory, and way out of its comfort zone. If history is any indication, Greenspan, who was unable to control the runaway train of monetary glutting in the early 2000s, is a perfect case study of what will happen – why would Bernanke, who is Alan “Moral Hazard” Greenspan reincarnated, get it right? Especially, having demonstrated over the past month a complete lack of comprehension of asset bubble existence. And that particular bet explains why all the smartest money is currently accumulating it. Many pundits have said that the one who times the switch to inflationary policy by the Fed will be the richest man in 2010 (or 2012 if Goldman is right). Yet gold is a negative carry-free way to make just such a wager with the broadest possible time horizon: gold’s lack of positive carry offsets precisely the theta bleed which one would incur if one was merely rolling S&P puts constantly waiting for the Nassim Taleb moment of six sigma plus singularity. Also, once purchased, there is no need to roll the gold contracts, especially in physical form. At the end of the day, if the monetary skeptics are right, and they most likely are, the Fed will not only be unable to rein in inflation but we will go straight to hyperinflation and not pass go. At that moment the price of gold will hit escape velocity. And as in hyperinflation traditional supply/demand mechanics collapse, especially for such industrial metals as copper, aluminum, and, yes, even silver, gold’s lack of intrinsic value will be the main thing in its favor. Furthermore, with gold prices representing a nearly 80% discount on the global monetary base in simple value terms, in a scramble to a makeshift gold standard, the next resistance level will be not $2000, but $6000/oz.Yet in all honesty, we do agree with Roubini, that at that point in the future, when all non-gold commodities are flatlining, spam will likely be just as valuable as gold. Unfortunately, lead will be in a league of its own. If that is the price to pay for the terminal proof of flawed-from-the-start Keynesian economics, and the failure of the Federal Reserve as the bastion of Wall Street’s “second estate” interests, and the subsequent demise of both, it may just end up being worth it.GOODBY ROUBINI.YOU ARE NOW AT THE DARK SIDE OF POWER.

My opinion is that gold will do fine both in case of inflation and in case of deflation (even I think that what happened is disinflation). And if you ask me why here is the answer:a. In case of inflation or even hyper-inflation gold will be hedge until the fed put the situation in control;b. In case of deflation the fed will flood the economy with more dollars and the case a will occur, but with delay.And even if apocalyptic scenario happen the gold will be the currency until we all invent new one.The only scenario for gold to fall is if there is nor inflation or deflation, if I want to say it with manners of Dr. Roubini with probability of 30 percent.Andrej

300 million Average Joe Americans could care less about gold. it means nothing in the grand scheme of things for americans…. it’s a left over facination from Centurys ago and the Roman empire… look at all the 49′rs that went west to California chasing the crap in the 1800′s…. what did it get them?

Last man standing

Yes, now the military-industrial complex will have plenty of fodder!

I especially love the idea to INCREASE the white population for fear of being overrun by Asian populations. Now there’s a brilliant (and xenophobic [popular w/right-wing leaning folks]) idea! This has helped push an already fragile land into disaster!If you really wanted to do something about pollution then how about stop dropping bombs, or stop producing land mines and stop war and all societal imposition andmind your own business and keep your hands out of every body’s pockets!I agree one hundred percent!I have to wonder, though, why you think that there can be salvation through “better” leadership. It’s the very fact that hierarchical systems guarantee a distortion of power, and with this comes greed, and from that point on its all down hill.

IT’S THE SYSTEM! The entire thing is build on the lie that there can be sustained growth! We’re on the decline of easy-to-extract resources, which means that the system is failing- doesn’t matter who is at the helm!

Gold works for no one. Its stands alone. And it has stood longer than any fiat currency.The ONLY thing that fiat currency embracers should concentrate on is when to switch currencies. But that little debt issue is still there, and growing, which will result in the printing of more fiat currency (the magic debt eraser); if I understand the equation properly, value is generally afforded to the scarcity of a thing: more fiat dollars isn’t going to make it more the fiat dollar more valuable… Meanwhile, Midas still doesn’t exist: gold is obtained though effort, it can’t be touched into existence, like fiat currency.If Roubini can’t acknowledge that growth isn’t sustainable then I’d hardly call him a “big picture guy.”

Only two pieces of wisdom need be propagated and adhered to:1) Growth cannot be sustained;2) No gods, no masters.Understanding growth means that you care about future generations, about the preservation of species- a respect for all, an appreciation that we are indebted to the planet and all things on it. It’s an acknowledgment of sustainability, stasis, the balance of life, the life of balance.”always in the name of a Lord,” yes, no gods no masters! The hierarchical system guarantees that there will be exploitation/oppression, and an excuse by many/most that they are not in control, not responsible for their own actions (it’s always someone else that is to blame- “the rich,” “the poor” etc.).

WHAT A CIRCUS!!Roubini says: “Much like a fiat currency, gold’s value is based largely on the irrational beliefs of investors.”

g,by definition faith is irrational, period.it seems the entire system is irrational, as hasbeen pointed out repeatedly and objections havebeen raised and gone ignored for many years.it is fundamentally ill conceived, irrational,and unjust and injurious at its core, while you may find tangential rational aspects, the glaringhypocrisy and dysfunction must go unrecognized,censured, opaque and off book. exported as waris peace. and we will never see an end to the world as it is and must be, so let us instead dreamwith rolling eyes, earplugs and blinders.so sayeth the spokesperson for the elite overlords,your majesties and otherwise dignified and indemnified and titled non-persons.

I would prefer:To be rational demands having no confidence in fiat currenciesandafter weighing risk in probability and circumstance, findthat holding Gold carries far less risk than blindly having faithin those self-serving carpet baggers called “leadership”.As a man, as blindman pens, faith is irrational and,a waste of the creation or, intellect!Ho hum

Depopulation would also greatly help the climate.

However it would be honest if he were to say gold has out performed the market since 2000. Did he say that would happen?hlowe

So … on a different subject. Is there a change coming to the subscriber comments here – starting tomorrow?PeteCA

The US government has now become an unfunded mandate!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Senate-sends-11-trillion-apf-2465306477.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=wuaHHHAAAAAAHAAAAA USA is doomed wuaHAAAHAAAAAA!!!!! we are doomed wuaAHAAAAAAAAA1.1 Trillion dollar bill for democrats luxury government spending >.<

Roubini is a moron. dont forget gold is price in fiat currency. statement like that just show how stupid he is.

moronic comment. average joe american doesnt care about gold cause they are moron. but what gold tells the relationship that it has with fiat currency. only moron will not care about gold. only moron will not care about value of fiat currency that they work hard for. stupid!!!

you are a moron – tell avj joe american to his face… chicken shit…

The format is new and I had to log in again, but I can still access and make comments, and I am not a paid subscriber. Was there a miscommunication or will the ability to access comments be limited at a later time? Don’t suppose anyone knows?

First of all, I am proud to be called a denier, because I at least give some credence to legitimate science and not to a set of chicken-little assumptions based on science that is at best described as the modern equivalent of Alchemy.Yep, Alchemy. That is what all you wise, concerned types are trying to pass off as a reason to impoverish our own and the following generations.Tell me this … will cutting back on greenhouse gas emissions stop the observed global warming on Mars? Do you think what might be causing that might also be a major driver of the measured warming on Mother Gaia (aside from that warming that can already be ascribed to dubious adjustments to ‘hide the decline’)?I’m not for polluting the world, but let’s not destroy our standard of living because we feel guilty about it. Oh, and by the way, most of the creeps ramming this nonsense down our throats will never cut back on their own lifestyles, to wit Al Gore and his planes and mansion, and the even better example of the very few climate change conference delegates who deigned to use the public transport made available for them in Copenhagen (though I bet many of them did take up the offer of free prostitutes).

Well, actually a lot of the the new recruits are being rejected or remedially trained for being obese and chronically unconditioned.Post hoc ergo propter hoc … being on food stamps might indicate a need for food stamps, but the USDA does advertise actively for clients, even among military families abroad (which is at once sad, that they may need assistance for being so poorly paid, and horrifying, that USDA can push its welfare programs outside the US).

Depopulation = genocideAre you really that evil? I suppose you reserve the right to decide which groups get to ‘depopulate’ the most.

Average Joe American cares more about the SF 49′rs than the CHF or USD. As long as they can afford a couple happy meals for the kids at McD’s, they don’t care, but I noted on my last visit to the US that a number of food items were considerably inflated in price (+7% to 15%) in this so-called tamed-inflation environment, and this is probably not going lost on Joe and Jane American these days as they try to scrape to make the next mortgage payment on their overpriced-because-credit-was-too-easy-and-therefore-prices-exploded houses.

It would be more correct to say it is an un-Mandated funding.

And now I wish I had paid attention to the inflation of Spam prices. One source noted an increase during the month of October 2008 from $2.14 to $2.32 for a 12 ounce tin. That would be roughly 8.4% (not annualized), which is somewhat in line with other price rises I have seen since the period of low inflation began in Autumn 2008.

Test 12345

Shadowstats’ John Williams: Prepare For The Hyperinflationary Great DepressionSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/14/2009 14:32 -0500John Williams, who runs the popular counter government data manipulation site Shadowstats, has thrown down the gauntlet to deflationists, and in an extensive report concludes that the probability of a hyperinflationary episode in America over the next year has reached critical levels. While the debate between deflationists and (hyper)inflationists has been a long and painful one, numerous events set off in motion by the Bernanke Fed (as a direct legacy of the Greenspan multi-decade period of cheap and boundless credit) may have well cast America as the unwilling protagonist in the sequel of the failed monetary policy economic experiment better known as Zimbabwe.Williams does not mince his words:The U.S. economic and systemic solvency crises of the last two years are just precursors to a Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. Such will reflect a complete collapse in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity, a collapse in the U.S. financial system as we know it, and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. The current U.S. financial markets, financial system and economy remain highly unstable and vulnerable to unexpected shocks. The Federal Reserve is dedicated to preventing deflation, to debasing the U.S. dollar. The results of those efforts are being seen in tentative selling pressures against the U.S. currency and in the rallying price of gold.And even as Bernanke continues existing in a factless vacuum where he sees no asset bubbles, Williams takes aim at the one party almost exclusively responsible for the economic carnage that will soon transpire:The crises have been generated out of and are centered on the United States financial system, triggered by the collapse of debt excesses actively encouraged by the Greenspan Federal Reserve. Recognizing that the U.S. economy was sagging under the weight of structural changes created by government trade, regulatory and social policies — policies that limited real consumer income growth — Mr. Greenspan played along with the political and banking systems. He made policy decisions to steal economic activity from the future, fueling economic growth of the last decade largely through debt expansion.The Greenspan Fed pushed for ever-greater systemic leverage, including the happy acceptance of new financial products, which included instruments of mis-packaged lending risks, designed for consumption by global entities that openly did not understand the nature of the risks being taken. Complicit in this broad malfeasance was the U.S. government, including both major political parties in successive Administrations and Congresses.As with consumers, the federal government could not make ends meet while appeasing that portion of the electorate that could be kept docile by ever-expanding government programs and increasing government spending. The solution was ever-expanding federal debt and deficits.Purportedly, it was Arthur Burns, Fed Chairman under Richard Nixon, who first offered the advice that helped to guide Alan Greenspan and a number of Administrations. The gist of the wisdom imparted was that if you ran into problems, you could ignore the budget deficit and the dollar. Ignoring them did not matter, because doing so would not cost you any votes.Back in 2005, I raised the issue of a then-inevitable U.S. hyperinflation with an advisor to both the Bush Administration and Fed Chairman Greenspan. I was told simply that “It’s too far into the future to worry about.”Indeed, pushing the big problems into the future appears to have been the working strategy for both the Fed and recent Administrations. Yet, the U.S. dollar and the budget deficit do matter, and the future is at hand. The day of ultimate financial reckoning has arrived, and it is playing out.Looking at the events over the past year demonstrates that Williams is not just being a drama queen.Effective financial impairments and at least partial nationalizations or orchestrated bailouts/takeovers resulted for institutions such as Bear Stearns, Citigroup, Washington Mutual, AIG, General Motors, Chrysler, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, along with a number of further troubled financial institutions. The Fed moved to provide whatever systemic liquidity would be needed, while the federal government moved to finance corporate bailouts and to introduce significant stimulus spending.Curiously, though, the Fed and the Treasury let Lehman Brothers fail outright, which triggered a foreseeable run on the system and markedly intensified the systemic solvency crisis in September 2008. Whether someone was trying to play political games, with the public and Congress increasingly raising questions of moral hazard issues, or whether the U.S. financial wizards missed what would happen or simply moved to bring the crisis to a head, remains to be seen.More on the impending timing of the complete economic collapse of the US financial system:Before the systemic solvency crisis began to unfold in 2007, the U.S. government already had condemned the U.S. dollar to a hyperinflationary grave by taking on debt and obligations that never could be covered through raising taxes and/or by severely slashing government spending that had become politically untouchable. The U.S. economy also already had entered a severe structural downturn, which helped to trigger the systemic solvency crisis.The intensifying economic and solvency crises, and the responses to both by the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve in the last two years, have exacerbated the government’s solvency issues and moved forward my timing estimation for the hyperinflation to the next five years, from the 2010 to 2018 timing range estimated in the prior report. The U.S. government and Federal Reserve already have committed the system to this course through the easy politics of a bottomless pocketbook, the servicing of big-moneyed special interests, gross mismanagement, and a deliberate and ongoing effort to debase the U.S. currency. Accordingly, risks are particularly high of the hyperinflation crisis breaking within the next year.What are the alternatives for the US? In a word, none. Presumably this means you should ignore what the axed “experts” from various bailed out sell side research chop shops try to tell you.The U.S. has no way of avoiding a financial Armageddon. Bankrupt sovereign states most commonly use the currency printing press as a solution to not having enough money to cover obligations. The alternative would be for the U.S. to renege on its existing debt and obligations, a solution for modern sovereign states rarely seen outside of governments overthrown in revolution, and a solution with no happier ending than simply printing the needed money. With the creation of massive amounts of new fiat dollars (not backed by gold or silver) will come the eventual destruction of the value of the U.S. dollar and related dollar-denominated paper assets.What lies ahead will be extremely difficult, painful and unhappy times for many in the United States. The functioning and adaptation of the U.S. economy and financial markets to a hyperinflation likely would be particularly disruptive. Trouble could range from turmoil in the food distribution chain to electronic cash and credit systems unable to handle rapidly changing circumstances. The situation quickly would devolve from a deepening depression, to an intensifying hyperinflationary great depression.While the economic difficulties would have global impact, the initial hyperinflation should be largely a U.S. problem, albeit with major implications for the global currency system. For those living in the United States, long-range strategies should look to assure safety and survival, which from a financial standpoint means preserving wealth and assets. Also directly impacted, of course, are those holding or dependent upon U.S. dollars or dollar-denominated assets, and those living in “dollarized” countries.In other words, the economic cycle will come back with a vengeance. Having pulled America out of the abyss by the last hairs on its Rogaine infused head, the Fed and the Administration have merely purchased one-two years of excess time in which insiders can sell all their holdings (look at recent reports indicating the ratio of insider sellers to buyers) and banks can book one/two years of record bonuses before signing off.And whether one is a deflationist or inflationist, the take home message from Williams’ thesis that everyone should be able to agree on, is what everyone knows yet is unwilling to admit: that the US economy (and its derivative, the undecoupled global economy, which that most certainly includes China) is that we are now caught in the greatest Ponzi bubble of all time. One small hiccup in which there is no incremental hollow value added on the margin courtesy of printing presses pushing fiat pieces of paper in overtime, would lead to precisely the same outcome as the world saw with Bernie Madoff: from $50 billion to 0 overnight. It is somehow fitting that world GDP is 1,000 time greater, at $50 trillion. Take away the fiat illusion, and the real value collapses to those concepts of tangible value that will remain in a post bubble implosion scenario: whether these be spam, gold, or lead.And just so there is no confusion about the course of events, Williams presents the Zimbabwe hyperinflation episode as the case study that the historian Bernanke should have been focusing on, instead of spending long nights, “learning” from the Great Depression.Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe, the former Rhodesia, was a quadrillion times worse than it was in Weimar Germany. Zimbabwe went through a number of years of high inflation, with an accelerating hyperinflation from 2006 to 2009, when the currency was abandoned. Through three devaluations, excess zeros repeatedly were lopped off notes as high as 100 trillion Zimbabwe dollars.The cumulative devaluation of the Zimbabwe dollar was such that a stack of 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (26 zeros) two dollar bills (if they were printed) in the peak hyperinflation would have be needed to equal in value what a single original Zimbabwe two-dollar bill of 1978 had been worth. Such a pile of bills literally would be light years high, stretching from the Earth to the Andromeda GalaxyIn early-2009, the governor of the Zimbabwe Reserve Bank indicated he felt his actions in printing money were vindicated by the recent actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve. If the U.S. went through a hyperinflation like that of Zimbabwe’s, total U.S. federal debt and obligations (roughly $75 trillion with unfunded liabilities) could be paid off for much less than a current penny.What helped to enable the evolution of the Zimbabwe monetary excesses over the years, while still having something of a functioning economy, was the back-up of a well functioning black market in U.S. dollars. The United States has no such backup system, however, with implications for a more rapid and disruptive hyperinflation than seen in Zimbabwe, when it hits.Maybe in retrospect it is good that banks are not lending out. If the $1.2 trillion in excess reserves were to actually hit circulating currency overnight, or even in a much more gradual fashion, then hyperinflation would surely be unavoidable, not so much as function of the consumer becoming a dominant force once again, which is the deflationists’ key point, but as a result of the excess liquidity of the capital markets, which is the only reason why the S&P is where it is, into Main Street. As it stands, banks’ unwillingness to recreate the cheap credit bubble by lending to anyone who has a pulse and can walk is the only thing that is so far preventing America’s name change to the United States of Zimbabwe.

Not only that, please audit all the 550+ corrupt people in the Congress, and 100+ corrupt people in the WH, and the 20,000+ lobbyists on the K Street in DC, apart from the chiefs of corporate America, including the WS allegators.

“freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose.” k.k.Indeed.

The statistics don’t take into account those entering the work force that cannot find jobs. Our young people are having a hard time finding work and since they have not yet worked a full time job they are not eligible for unemployment benefits, I wonder how much higher the statistic would be if they were included.

Would someone please tell me how do I access the most recent discussion forum in this new format?thanks

on the home page click on “Economonitors”On Economonitor page look in right column for “Blogosphere” and click on “nouriel roubini”there are probably easier ways to get here but that is the path I discovered

Pardon me, that’s Octavio Richetta.

Thanks for the compliment!

This weblog appears to recieve a large ammount of visitors. How do you advertise it? It offers a nice individual spin on things. I guess having something real or substantial to post about is the most important factor.

We all require a lot more this sort of online marketers just like you on the internet and also much fewer spammers.

A free society is one where it is safe to be

A domain name is an identification label which defines a realm of administrative autonomy, authority, or control in the Internet. Domain names are also critica for hosting

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