First!

Third!

Good analysis … To follow on, I think one of the underlying assumptions of US policy makers is that the lenders will continue to acquiesce to the picking of their pockets for fear that taking action will have dire consequences: If they stop lending to the US, they risk losing one of their bigger customers, and if they were to do something silly like go to war, they would suffer greatly. Those are, of course, dangerous assumptions to make with countries that have more than 4 times the US population and who are busily rebalancing their global exposure to reduce dependency on the benificence of the US consumer.

http://www.businessinsider.com/smithers-stocks-40-percent-overvalued

jobs report:http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmLooks like a BIG positive surprise: he unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November, and nonfarmpayroll employment was essentially unchanged (-11,000), the U.S. Bureau ofLabor Statistics reported today. In the prior 3 months, payroll job losseshad averaged 135,000 a month. In November, employment fell in construction,manufacturing, and information, while temporary help services and health careadded jobs.

The futures are, of course, dancing: all indices over 1%!http://finance.yahoo.com/indices?e=futuresit will be interesting to see how the day of trading turns out.It looks like a very positive report in the surface the only negative I found was this:Employment in professional and business services rose by 86,000 in November.Temporary help services accounted for the majority of the increase, adding52,000 jobs. Since July, temporary help services employment has risen by117,000.The upward revision for September and October are also a big positive:The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from-219,000 to -139,000, and the change for October was revised from -190,000 to-111,000.

I love this little gem from Spencer Dale of the Bank of England, where he essentially states that BOE is concerned not with containing or eliminating inflation but rather with maintaining it at the target leve. Seems this is what central banks are all about these days. But we all knew that.At our most recent meeting in November, the Monetary Policy Committee voted to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5% and to increase the scale of asset purchases to £200 billion. However, you may have noticed that there was a split vote amongst the Committee last month, and that I voted to maintain the scale of the asset purchase programme at £175 billion.It is important not to make too much of this difference. I fully recognised the potential benefits of a more expansionary policy given the downside risks to the economy. However, I was also wary of the potential risks of such a policy … given the uncertainties about the precise margin of spare capacity and the behaviour of inflation as this spare capacity is being closed, my preference was to aim to grow the economy a little less rapidly.However, as I suggested, it is important not to make too much of these differences; all MPC members – myself included – were of the view that a significant degree of monetary stimulus needed to be maintained in order to meet the inflation target.I just love such clarity from central bankers. Our own, Mr. Bernanke, gave a pithier, but not nearly as transparent statement to the Senate yesterday:The Federal Reserve remains committed to its mission to help restore prosperity and to stimulate job creation while preserving price stability. If I am confirmed, I will work to the utmost of my abilities in the pursuit of those objectives.The question, friends, is what does that mean? Well, pretty much what the BOE said: “We believe a target level of inflation.” But of course when you read it you think “zero or a minimal level of inflation,” but the gradual erosion of the dollar over the years belies the Fed’s real sympathies.Having determined what the Fed really is about, the real question is “What level of inflation are they willing to tolerate before they actually try to do something about it?”

New Roubini Blog!http://www.roubini.com/roubini-monitor/258067/senator_chris_dodd_raises_roubini_predictions_at_bernanke_confirmation_hearingsIt appears one must post under their login account name. No more anonymous!

the Blog format is new but seems to be mirroring the old one also for now.

I am a non paying registered user and can not access the comments section.

OR -From here, this is just more of the same. This is a completely manufactured number from a government that desperately needs to show some progress to the sheeple.The revisions from previous months are a nice touch too.Unfortunately, you can fool MOST of the people MOST of the time, it would seem.Real jobs, like real wages, I have no doubt continue to decline.

wuaHAHAAAAAA

Thanks. That confirms my experience. I’ve tried everything to access the comments but can’t. Hopefully it’s just a temporary glitch.I’ve appreciated both Dr. Roubini’s prescient economic forecasts and the comments from participants. They’ve been helpful.

MM CA,Are you a paying registered member?I am not a paying member and I cannot post on the new blog.

Well … maybe those folks over at Chart-of-the-Day read my earlier post on this thread. Or more likely it’s just a coincidence. But if you take a look at the current trend in “NonFarm Payrolls” for the USA you’ll see that things have been very different this time.USA NonFarm Payroll Trends from Chart-of-the-DayPeteCA

With US retail sales down for a full year now, and China’s factories closing or running with excess capacity, what is making the stock market rise in China? Are there really higher earnings? I can see the need for infrastructure, but they are probably over-doing it.Just one industry, but here’s a snip from PowerPulse.net:”The very reasons foreign companies went to China became the reasons they started leaving. Labor was no longer cheap; shipping costs made proximity to end markets more important; quality control trumped volume production. Places like Mexico, Eastern Europe and Africa became more viable for many companies. Some even brought manufacturing back to the United States – which certainly has a lot of PR value these days. These regions can be cheaper than China for servicing North America and Europe (for example, Dell recently announced that it would outsource some of its manufacturing to Mexico).”This trend is extending to high-volume, low-mix products, such as mobile phone chargers. Many power supply companies see these markets as declining, but they actually could grow as a result of the shifts taking place in manufacturing. For instance, the recent “universal charger” standard in Europe is projected to reduce the number of chargers produced each year by 50% (based on a mobile phone replacement rate of 50%, according to the GSM Association). This will significantly affect China’s current 600-strong mobile phone charger supplier base. With demand expected to drop 30% to 50% in the next three years, many Chinese makers are likely to reduce output, shift product lines and even exit the industry altogether.”

Yes, the American Polyannas are Living in a Dream WorldThe latest joke is unemployment down to 10% [as giveups apparently leave the unemployment count].Even the history majors should have a contentious bone to pick with unemployment Polyannas at the BLS…during the Great Depression 1 unemployment was simply estimated as a Zogby/Gallup Poll of Americans out of work and severely underemployed…God forbid we do it that way….LOL…the numbers would easily double and then some.

You Got ItPolyanna Mainstream Media article in part:”…The unemployment rate also dropped because fewer people are looking for work. The size of the labor force, which includes the employed and those actively searching for jobs, fell by nearly 100,000, the third straight decline. That indicates more of the unemployed are giving up on looking for work….”"Giveups or unemployment ghosts” and IMO as the BLS unemployment rate eliminates counts due to ghost attrition, we’re falling in deep doodoo…at least when it was 10.2%, they were getting unemployment benefits.The rest of the Polyanna Mainstream Media Garbage URL:http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Unexpected-drop-in-jobless-apf-4164274048.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Job Cuts Loom as Stimulus FadesBy GARY FIELDSWASHINGTON—Highway-construction companies around the country, having completed the mostly small projects paid for by the federal economic-stimulus package, are starting to see their business run aground, an ominous sign for the nation’s weak employment picture.Tim Word, vice president of Dean Word Co., a heavy-construction company in New Braunfels, Texas, said his income is now coming mostly from projects that are winding up. He said that in normal times he has about $100 million of signed contracts in hand. But that number has fallen to $30 million, and the pipeline is empty. In the past two years, his work force has shrunk nearly 40% to 260 from 420.”Having something to bid on is the lifeblood of the industry, and it’s running out,” said Mr. Word. He isn’t sure what will happen next year without new projects. “There’s no pavement fairy that’s going to help.”Since the recession began in 2007, employment in the construction industry has fallen by 1.6 million, the Labor Department says. Though the housing sector accounts for many of those job losses, road builders have also suffered, and executives in the industry expect layoffs to rise next year.More broadly, the Congressional Budget Office late Monday said it estimates that the federal stimulus package sustained between 600,000 and 1.6 million jobs in the third quarter, and raised gross domestic product by 1.2 to 3.2 percentage points higher than it would have been without the program.The construction industry’s unemployment rate, including related extraction businesses, such as gravel processing, climbed to 19.1% in October, up from 10.7% a year earlier. The transportation and material-moving sectors saw unemployment rise to 11.6% from 7.9% over the same period.State officials and local contractors trace the industry’s woes to the recession and the collapse of the residential and commercial real-estate markets. In addition, they cite the federal government’s delayed plans to enact a transportation bill. In one version, the law would have provided $450 billion for highways and infrastructure projects over the next six years.Journal Communitydiscuss“ Their idea of ‘wealth equalization’ in reality means equal misery and poverty for all. Next November cannot come fast enough. ”—Jean Balloon Congress is no longer actively considering the bill, which has been bumped aside by competing priorities such as the Obama administration’s health-care overhaul and by growing support for reducing the federal budget deficit. Some lawmakers fear that continued stimulus spending could harm the economy down the road by saddling the nation with higher debt-servicing bills.But high unemployment could revive the transportation-spending bill’s prospects. Earlier this year the Obama administration was opposed to pushing a big highway bill, deterred in part by the prospect of raising gasoline taxes to pay for it. Faced with a 10.2% jobless rate, however, officials here are rethinking their stance. Thursday, the White House will hold a “jobs summit” to discuss ideas, which are likely to include shifting some spending to transportation projects.Without an infusion of federal funding, state transportation departments say they can’t develop long-term roadway projects, which are critical to the industry. About half of states’ funding for such projects comes from the federal highway trust fund, which is funded by the gasoline tax.Christian Zimmermann, chief executive of Pike Industries Inc., a 1,200-employee company in Belmont, N.H., that paves roads and operates gravel pits and asphalt plants, recalls waiting out 2003 and 2004 while Congress deliberated on the last highway bill. “It was miserable,” he said.The industry’s saving grace then was a booming private sector. This time around, the private sector isn’t picking up the slack. “Two years ago, our phones would have been ringing off the hook with the good weather,” Mr. Zimmermann said. “This year the phones ain’t ringing.”Without long-term government projects, Mr. Zimmermann said he may have to lay off as many as 150 people next year. “The stimulus was a shot in the arm, but that’s all it was,” he said.Industry executives say that the $27 billion out of the $787 billion stimulus package that went to highway construction went mostly to relatively small “shovel ready” projects, those that didn’t require much lead time. The $27 billion—77% of which had been committed as of Nov. 13, according to the Associated General Contractors of America—has saved some jobs.MoreCBO: 600,000 to 1.6 Million Employed by Stimulus “But if I’m a big company, I need major freeway rehabilitation work and bigger projects,” said Steve Simmons, deputy executive director of the Texas Department of Transportation. Texas’s wish list is taking “a back seat because we have no funding for it,” Mr. Simmons said.In the near term, House Democratic leaders are considering paying for some transportation projects that weren’t funded by the stimulus package. The size of the spending package hasn’t been decided, nor has the question of how it would be funded. Congress is also weighing a broader set of initiatives to spark job growth.Jim Berard, spokesman for Rep. James Oberstar (D., Minn.), chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, said the White House is “warming” to the idea of considering a bigger highway bill sooner than it had initially planned.A recent survey by the Transportation Construction Coalition found that more than 76% of contractors expect state transportation departments to put less work up for bid in 2010 than this year. And 44% said they are likely to lay off employees next year.John McCaskie, chief engineer at Swank Associated Cos., said his New Kensington, Pa., bridge-and-highway rehabilitation company faces more competition for the few projects out there. He said contracts worth less than $2 million are attracting a dozen competitors these days, compared with around four previously. “You end up bankrupting your company to be the low bidder.”If contractors cut back, their equipment suppliers will be hurt as well, said Ken Taylor, president of Ohio CAT, Broadview Heights, Ohio, which sells equipment made by Caterpillar Inc. Contractors have usually placed orders for the spring construction season by now, he said. That hasn’t happened, and he may need to eliminate $50 million of his $175 million inventory.Mr. Taylor has pared his staff to about 750, down from 1,000 in June 2008. “I feel like I’m at a spot where we’ve done a lot of things, and we should be able to manage through. But if it gets worse I may be looking at closing a couple locations.”Write to Gary Fields at gary.fields@wsj.com

El Centro, CA Holds Position For Highest Unemployment Rate of 30%

El Centro, Calif., held its position of having the highest unemployment rate among the nation’s metropolitan areas, with the jobless rate at 30%, according to government figures released Wednesday.While the figure fell from a revised 32.2% in September, it climbed from 26.8% a year ago and it is staggering even against the nation’s 10.2% unemployment rate, which is at a 26-year high.

I do believe in Roubini’s prediction of Death By A Thousand Cuts will come true. The criminal elite think that because they are “smart” they can fool with a complicated system and fudge it into compliance with their stupid agenda. What an utter fiasco.

TrimTabs: The Real Job Loss Number Was 255,000Just about every time the monthly jobs numbers comes out, economic research firm TrimTabs comes out and slams the government’s methodology, usually honing in on the Birth/Death model of new businesses entering the market.This week is no exception.Frankly, we’re not sure what to make of their arguments. We’ve been hearing about this Birth-Death issue for a long time, but unless you believe they’re changing their methodology from month to month, then that issue only goes so far.We welcome your thoughts.————TrimTabs’ Estimates 255,000 Jobs Lost in November, While BLS Reports a Decline of Only 11,000BLS Revises September and October Results Down a Whopping 45%Something’s Not Right in Kansas!TrimTabs employment analysis, which uses real-time daily income tax deposits from all U.S. taxpayers to compute employment growth, estimated that the U.S. economy shed 255,000 jobs in November. This past month’s results were an improvement of only 10.2% from the 284,000 jobs lost in October.Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy lost an astonishingly better than expected 11,000 jobs in November. In addition, the BLS revised their September and October results down a whopping 203,000 jobs, resulting in a 45% improvement over their preliminary results.Something is not right in Kansas! Either the BLS results are wrong, our results are in error, or the truth lies somewhere in the middleWe believe the BLS is grossly underestimating current job losses due to their flawed survey methodology. Those flaws include rigid seasonal adjustments, a mysterious birth/death adjustment, and the fact that only 40% to 60% of the BLS survey is complete by the time of the first release and subject to revision.Seasonal adjustments are particularly problematic around the holiday season due to the large number of temporary holiday-related jobs added to payrolls in October and November which then disappear in January. In the past two months, the BLS seasonal adjustments subtracted 2.4 million jobs from the results. In January, when the seasonal adjustments are the largest of the year, the BLS will add anywhere from 2.0 to 2.3 million jobs. In our opinion, trying to glean monthly job losses numbering in the tens of thousands or even in the hundreds of thousands are lost in the enormous size of the seasonal adjustments.In November, the BLS revised their September and October job losses down a surprising 44.5%, or 203,000 jobs. In the twelve months ending in October, the BLS revised their job loss estimates up or down by a staggering 679,000 jobs, or 13.0%. Until this past month, these revisions brought the BLS’ revised estimates to within a couple percent of TrimTabs’ original estimates.The large divergence between the two results begs the question of what is causing the difference. While we don’t have an answer today, we will be poring over the data in an attempt to answer that question.A comparison of TrimTabs’ employment results versus the BLS’ results from January 2008 through November 2009 is summarized below.Source: TrimTabs Investment Research – http://www.trimtabs.com and Bureau of Labor Statistics – http://www.bls.comSeveral other employment related data statistics support the conclusion that the labor market is not as robust as the BLS is reporting:· Automatic Data Processing reported on Wednesday that 169,000 jobs were lost in November.· The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Survey reported that the majority of companies surveyed were still shedding employees.· The ISM Manufacturing Survey reported weaker employment conditions in November.· Weekly unemployment claims were 457,000 in the week ended November 27, 2009. While last week’s results were below the important psychological level 500,000, the weekly claims are still uncomfortably high and point to a contracting labor market.· The TrimTabs Online Jobs Index reported lower online job availability in the past three weeks.· The Monster Employment Index declined in November.We will have the opportunity to truth our employment model estimates at the end of January 2010 when the BLS releases its annual benchmark revisions. The BLS revisions are based on actual payroll data for March 2009. The BLS revision is then divided by twelve to correct prior month’s data back to April 2008. We also use the March 2009 revisions to adjust our model inputs and make any necessary corrections.For a complete analysis of the current employment situation and economic conditions, refer to TrimTabs Weekly Macro Analysis published this coming Tuesday, December 8, 2009.

The Good Jobs Data Was All Temporary Workers And The Public SectorMichael Panzner|Dec. 4, 2009, 4:12 PM(This post originally appeared on the author’s blog.)Economists and stock bulls cheered this morning’s better-than-expected November employment report. But was the data as good as it seemed? Consider the following:Temporary jobsCould the nine-month rally in share prices and the positive spin pouring out of Wall Street and Washington have encouraged some owners and managers, who are seeing little direct evidence of rebound in the economy, to acquire what might be described as a labor call option — that is, temporary staff (a key factor in the overall increase)?Otherwise, temporary employees accounted for 52,400 of the hefty 86,000 jump in the professional and business services category. Might this reflect the fact that firms are temporarily taking on accountants, lawyers, and others who can help them further reduce costs (e.g., labor), restructure operations, and maybe even prepare for bankruptcy?Long-term unemployedToday’s employment report revealed that the labor force participation rate dropped to 65%, it’s lowest level in more than two decades; the number of Americans who are unemployed over 26 weeks fell to a record 3.8% of the civilian workforce; and, the “underemployment” ratio improved only marginally, to 17.2%.Could this set of statistics be interpreted as a sign that employers don’t see enough good opportunities to justify taking risks as far as hiring is concerned? In other words, are they are sticking with the safe option — the job market’s “known quantities” (e.g., those who are currently employed or who haven’t been out of work too long)?Category trendsWhile much of the focus was on the overall number, the breakdown by category was less reassuring. Those areas of the economy that would naturally be associated with a sustainable rebound in activity, including manufacturing, trade, transportation and utilities, and construction, are still hemorrhaging jobs.Moreover, recent developments suggest that two categories which did see respectable gains, education and health care, face major headwinds in the period ahead. With municipal budgets under growing strain, school budgets — and education-related hiring — have nowhere to go but down. And with all eyes now focused on the rising cost of health care, the pressure to reign in spending will only increase.

speaking of war, war-ming and piplines…check out this interview..Health Styles Friday December 4, 2009 1:00pmPublic Affairs.http://archive.wbai.org/.she says ” u.s., get out!” let the peopleof afganistan deal with their own internal stuff.this from someone who was born there, grew there,lives there, loves there, governed there,malaya joya, “a women among warlords”.9/11 has nothing to do with this, tapi pipelinedoes, imperialism does, collapsing ponzi financialsystem does..http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Afghanistan_Pipeline.Trans-Afghanistan PipelineFrom Wikipedia,The Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline (TAP or TAPI) is a proposed natural gas pipeline being developed by the Asian Development Bank. The pipeline will transport Caspian Sea natural gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan into Pakistan and then to India. The abbreviation comes from the first letters of those countries. Proponents of the project see it as a modern continuation of the Silk Road. The Afghan government is expected to receive 8% of the project’s revenue.* 1 History* 2 Route* 3 Technical features* 4 See also* 5 References[edit] HistoryThe original project started in March 1995 when an inaugural memorandum of understanding between the governments of Turkmenistan and Pakistan for a pipeline project was signed. In August 1996, the Central Asia Gas Pipeline, Ltd. (CentGas) consortium for construction of a pipeline, led by U.S. oil company, Unocal was formed. On 27 October 1997, CentGas was incorporated in formal signing ceremonies in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan by several international oil companies along with the Government of Turkmenistan. In January 1998, the Taliban, selecting CentGas over Argentinian competitor Bridas Corporation, signed an agreement that allowed the proposed project to proceed. In June 1998, Russian Gazprom relinquished its 10% stake in the project. Unocal withdrew from the consortium on 8 December 1998.The new deal on the pipeline was signed on 27 December 2002 by the leaders of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan.[1] In 2005, the Asian Development Bank submitted the final version of a feasibility study designed by British company Penspen. Due to increasing instability, the project has essentially stalled; construction of the Turkmen part was supposed to start in 2006, but the overall feasibility is questionable since the southern part of the Afghan section runs through territory which continues to be under de facto Taliban control.On 24 April 2008, Pakistan, India and Afghanistan signed a framework agreement to buy natural gas from Turkmenistan.[2][edit] RouteThe 1,680 kilometres (1,040 mi) pipeline will run from the Dauletabad gas field to Afghanistan. From there TAPI will be constructed alongside the highway running from Herat to Kandahar, and then via Quetta and Multan in Pakistan. The final destination of the pipeline will be the Indian town of Fazilka, near the border between Pakistan and India.[3][edit] Technical featuresThe pipeline will be 1,420 millimetres (56 in) in diameter with a working pressure of 100 atm.[3] The initial capacity will be 27 billion cubic meter (bcm) of natural gas annually of which 2 bcm will be provided to Afghanistan and 12.5 bcm to each Pakistan and India. Later the capacity will increase to 33 bcm.[4] Six compressor stations are to be constructed along the pipeline.[3] The pipeline is expected to be operational by 2014.[5]The cost of the pipeline is estimated cost at US$7.6 billion.[2] The project is to be financed by the Asian Development Bank.[6][edit] See also* Zalmay Khalilzad* CentGas* Transport in Afghanistan* Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline* Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (BTC)* South Caucasus Pipeline* Afghanistan Oil Pipeline* Enron’s Dabhol Power Company…

Go to the help center.http://www.roubini.com/help-center.php

Notable web blog, Distinguished comments that I can tackle. I am moving ahead and can apply to my current job as a cat sitter, which is very enjoyable, however I must additional expand. Regards

Thats sort of simple.