Finally Noriel is breaking away from the administrations rosy green shoots and recovery predictions. It also means that stock market bubble is at its bursting point now.

The stock market is detached from reality so it can go higher. It will just make it uglier when the bubble does pop.

What I don’t understand with Roubini, much like other brilliant Keynesian-minded folks such as Gross or Krugman, is that they have been prescribing hugely expansionary fiscal and monetary policy while at the same time warning of their consequences and side-effects (bubbles and bursts, fiscal crises, currency crises, etc.). See for example:http://raphaelkahan.blogspot.com/2009/03/gross-keynesian-framework-starting-to.html

Here it comes one more round of keynesian propaganda from the academia. Krugman and now our good Roubini.How many times must keynesian recipes fail before we can consider them the utter failure they are?Every single time the politicians waste more money and faster than the academia requests, without anything to show for it. And the response of the professors is always the same: “not enough money have been wasted and not fast enough”.Sigh!

It is nice to hear from you. If the Professor prescription is really what is best for Amerika; then, the economy is really in deep trouble. This is kind of like trying to find a positive angle on amputating a leg being good for the patient as otherwise (s)he will die from gangrene.

Ah, Master Alessandro, have you been lurking or just happened to stop by?

Following NR’s latest posting: does this mean more quantitative easing, more USD falls? Does this mean a Japan scenario? See below link for a history of Japanese house prices since the early 90s…. Scary!see http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Japan/Price-History

“The damage will be extensive and severe unless bold policy action is undertaken now.”It seems the “bold” choice is defined as incurring additional debt via a second stimulus package. Why not define the bold step instead as canceling debt and allowing capitalism the unfettered ability to get rid of its weak players? Cancel the TBTF chatter and permit failure – TBTE, too big to exist. Otherwise we are engaged in a slow death by a thousand cuts without addressing the real root cause – the need to cancel debt.

Yeah, hard to reconcile this, isn’t it?”Shovel-ready” sounds all and good, but how long can the US afford the shovels and the projects?Can’t get out of debt unless you square with your creditors. Nothing but internal make-work doesn’t address this.I fear that it’ll come down to near-slave-labor (kind of like the military) whereby people sign up for employment to build/harvest things for export, at the direction of the State, or the few shareholders/oligarchs. I won’t be participating since I did not engage in any of the bad behaviors that got us here: never had a credit card; no debts; not a supporter of imperialism/war…

Other advanced countries have been substantially deeper in debt without either defaulting or having runaway inflation….Like Argentina?Most other countries are far smaller. And, they’ve had massive economic restrictions placed on them. Can’t remember the name of the IMF guy who said that he’d seen it all, that it ultimately came down to the politicians forcing their rich friends to step up and pay their due. The problem, he said, is that many administrations aren’t willing to do this (probably because those that helped to buy their offices expect payback, not “penalty) so, it’s the little people that end up getting the brunt of it. Of course, at some point the oligarchs are playing with fire, not knowing when the tipping point is that will result in mass uprisings that will toss them overboard.

Food, Shelter and Water…One will find that many of the world’s “terrorists” are merely people trying to hold on to their land, to their sustainable way of life.If you follow the movement of TPTB you’d see the following as one of the final progressions:The new farm ownersI’d have to say, as corrupt as the Philippines is, at least they have had the good sense to protect their fundamentals. Meanwhile in the US they’re all too happy to sell out to the biggest bidder, thereby selling out their ability to control their futures (ironically thinking that they are securing their futures- getting large sums of worthless fiat dollars); it’s one of the big themes I was trying to hammer in during my efforts to push back the ethanol scam (a Trojan Horse for land grab).

US unemployment is just a symptom of the US and world economies undergoing a sea change. First of all, it is the beginning of the end of the US being THE supreme center of world economic, political, and military power. Secondly, it portends the metamorphosis of the US from a highly consumptive services based economy to a product based economy reminiscent of 19th century England. The social and way-of-life changes will be tremendous. We as a nation and as individuals will have to learn to live within our means and with much less. Our labor and our money is becoming less and less valuable, and other much more significant changes will manifest themselves during the next decade. The transformation process will take time, but it is inevitable and there is not much anyone can do about it–we have bought the farm!

I absolutely agree (nice to see you back!).But, I wouldn’t say that we bought the farm. It’s just change, that’s all. Given that the existing system isn’t sustainable and that we’re now turning away from it, I wouldn’t ascribe any negative descriptor to this change…

g,ditto.

Maybe China will have to stop pegging its currency to the dollar. Maybe the US will get a comparative advantage (our labor is getting cheaper almost every week).

Bold policy action must be undertaken now. Specifically, we need to fire any congressmen or senators that have voted in effect to transfer power to the banksters. We need to really hunker down and analyze the voting records and activities of these so-called “elected” so-called representatives. This information needs to be disclosed to the public and the public should be induced to vote against these immoral representatives when they come up for the vote in their states. This, and not Goldman Sachs, is the root of the problem. If we had representatives who do their duty by us, Goldman et al never could have become such a problem. We also need to force the issue of campaign contributions. We should walk softly and carry a big stick. No calling our representatives, threatening to vote them out–they have already shown their complete unworthiness for their office.If we do not do this, then we, the people, deserve what we get. It is ultimately our fault that all of this has happened. We allowed ourselves to be gulled and manipulated. Voting these guys out is our only hope, but I suspect we, like Obama, are already too late to change things. But let’s at least forget the circus of blaming sharks for being sharks and take responsibility for our own failure as citizens. It’s the congress, stupid!

Oh no, the basis behind the Somali pirates is one of service to the Somali people (originated out of attempts to protect its waters from illegal fishing and dumping). Big mouth here belongs in a cage with all the other Wall Street b*stards.

But… the Banksters own our asses! Same with our “representatives.” As long as we play this game/system They are in charge.

We can’t vote for or against banksters. They are, in any case *not* our representatives. The fact that our congress is bought does not mean that we cannot vote that congress out. Then their owners will just have to try again to make good on their investment.For those who may remember Steve Post of New York Public Radio, he came up with a good collective noun for groups of pigs, such as we see applied to geese–a ‘gaggle of geese’, etc: a ‘congress of pigs’. I hope that one sticks. It’s barbecue time, folks! Time to get out those knives and forks for some good eatin!

Good point on “adressing” vs. “canceling” although the concept of addressing will likely be heavily influenced by cancelling debet – either outright or through the process of bankruptcy courts. And to your point, we seem to be dancing around the 800 pound gorilla sitting in our living room. As long as it doesn’t block the view of the television then I guess it is bearable.

you are a moron without common sense. think about it how is USA able to move into right direction without government start to live within its mean. moron, i say all you are morons and you guys dont believe. stupid hopeless pathetic morons.

plus Helicopter Ben always wanted 2nd option. so there you have it.

The point is that, if true, this is an inside job in a trusted environment, but nowthat the secret is out there will be a lot of testing going on.======As for urban myth:Sorry, no matches were found containing tungsten gold.http://www.snopes.com/

“What was the Fed mission again???”to take care of its shareholders

I’m just curious as to what those basic scientific methods are. Gold is a good conductor, so an X-ray or other electromagnetic radiation probably would not work.Please be specific about these scientific methods. I’m trained scientifically, and I don’t know them.

Jobs and Employment, so obviously far under reported. The high-paying sales and business development jobs are not coming back with the amount of slack in our production. Better educated, more willing, younger workers around the world are willing to do what American’s can no longer afford to do, work for less that is.

How many times must free market recipies fail before we can consider THEM the utter failure they are?

JOHN WILLIAMS’ SHADOW GOVERNMENT STATISTICS – COMMENTARY NUMBER 258 – November 16, 2009Increased October retail sales reported today are the result of September downward revisions.This morning’s (November 16th) Census Bureau report showed a statistically-significant monthly increase of 1.37% (0.81% net of revisions) +/- 0.6% (95% confidence interval) in seasonally-adjusted October retail sales.This only happened because September was downwardly revised 2.29% (previously 1.49%). The magnitude of the downside revisions to September (heavily in motor vehicle sales) exceeded the 95% confidence interval of past revisions indicating more gimmicked reporting.On a year-to-year basis, the October year-ago comparison was against collapsing gasoline prices and gasoline station sales. October 2009 retail sales were reported down by 1.74% from October 2008, following a revised annual decline of 6.31% (was 5.67%) in September.

More BS Green shoots…October Retail Sales Beat Expectations, But All Growth Was Just AutosVincent Fernando|Nov. 16, 2009, 8:58 AM | 293 |2Advance October retail sales grew faster than expected, at 1.4% month over month, but all the growth disappears if you strip away auto related sales.http://www.businessinsider.com/all-of-octobers-retail-sales-growth-was-just-autos-2009-11On a year over year basis, shown in the document below, retails sales fell 1.7% overall and by over 2% is you strip out auto-related sales.September data was revised significantly downward to -2.3% vs. -1.5% previously. We’ll have nothing to cheer on this front shoud October end up being revised down as well

Aha!!! are you whining about Obama BIG GOV will not generate permanent jobs now? You pitiful man. Stop whining.

There are lots of things that need to be done but also need to be planned out first.What bothers me is that I hear of none of the kind of planning that I believe should be done to strengthen the US and provide for our future financial security.Shovel ready jobs only have real meaning if they are part of a larger plan, like re-wiring America or distribution of the natural gas we have in abundance or massive new rail infrastructure(both heavy and light). If this kind of future planning is going on, why keep it a secret?Economies run on energy, infrastructure and ideas. We seem to be hurting in all areas with little being done to change the situation.It is a sad commentary on the current state of politics in the US. All for one and one for all in their world is all about large corporate profits and has nothing to do with Americans. Sad sad sad.

Well the “why not” is easy – it’s completely politically infeasible.

And his opinion on precious metals???Silver still below last years high. agq up over 11% today.hlowe

silver starting to move now.

I am doing research on the potential interest rate swap problem – does anyone see a potential meltdown if interest rates rise? can we estimate the potential magnitude if the long-end interest rates rise by say 100% (double)? please let me know. Thanks and kind regards, Cliff… cliff.kule@cliffkule.com… http://www.cliffkule.com

Having lived my formative years in the 1950’s I understand “politically infeasible”. Integration? Politically infeasible. And then, during the 1970’s extricating ourselves from Vietnam was politically infeasible – much as extricating ourselves from Afghanistan is today politically infeasible. But there are tipping points where the mass consciousness alters from what was once accepted as infeasible to that which becomes feasible. You may be right that debt cancellation is politically infeasible and hence will never occur. End of story. However, some voices are pointing out the inconvenient truth that an 800 pound gorilla exists. We may differ as to how to remove the gorilla from the living room but the first step is to acknowledge its presence.

I see a problem if interest rates show unexpected and high amounts of volatility. We have not seen that yet – and perhaps the market has never seen such a phenomenon. But that doesn’t exclude it from ever happening. However, I don’t think we are there yet.Pete

Yeah, there is a lot of debt indexed to various benchmark rates, and a lot of it was re-cast in the past year at relatively astronomical markups, eg. LIBOR + 4.25%, etc. You could count on a huge number of defaults even among so-called BB-rated companies if rates spiked up by even a few percent.

You’re using facts against Obama. That just isn’t fair. Please limit your comments to optimistic wishful thinking.

Within 6 to 9 months you will be saying what happened??

Interesting point. Can you remind me and all here what exactly brought us in this mess? I’m just curious what does a mindset like yours think it is. Just a hint – it wasn’t the “keynesian propaganda”. When you answer yourself this question, ask yourself whether the biggest problem this country has is the “keynesian propaganda” with its many failures in cleaning up the mess (and if you are able to name and elaborate on just one, I would be very grateful as I would learn something new today), or, you know, the very thing that got us here. thanks.

Federal Reserve is a bank, so like any bank, the balance sheet must balance (assets = liabilities + Equity). In the case of the Fed, the assets side (US Treasauries + Agencies + alphabet soup of facilities) is funded by reserves, excess reserves, currency in cirulation (Also known as Federal Reserve Debt) and some treasury deposits.http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20091022/So if one of the liabilities decline (excess reserves), either the asset side must decline or some other liability takes it place. The interest on the reserves is just the cost of the Federal Reserve funding. So there is nothing wrong with the Fed using these reserves to purchase assets.If they were to reduce asset size (eg sell the MBS), they will withdraw the equivalent amount of liquidity from the system (ie take it out of circulation). The Fed withdraws liquidity not currency in circulation. Currency in circulation is very very difficult to withdraw, which brings me to the next option the Fed has: INCREASE CURRENCY IN CIRCULAITON to offset the decline in excess reserves. That is massively hyperinflationary (just to emphasis the risks). I do not think the Fed will take this route but if they do, they will start the US on the path of Weimar.

Iraq

The market often touts this recession as a liquidity problem rather than a structural problem of the US economy. If it is a liquidity problem, we should be seeing signs of recovery on the back of Fed’s liquidity program. In reality our economy is experiencing a jobless recovery whereby Corporate America is not hiring.At least the argument goes as this, if the economy is slowing because of liquidity we should give time for the firms and consumers to get access to the financing they need and jump start the economy. But what if they get the money they need and the economy still lags. Then the Obama Administration does really need to make a reality check on the real economy.Most of the unemployment does come from construction-related industry that is undergoing huge amount of unwinding. And it would take time for these people to be re-employment as their skill sets are not laterally transferrable to other jobs. So to certain degree with Professor Roubini that another round of stimulus would be ideal, but eventually the economy needs to be taken off the life support.But historically the unemployment figure is so volatile and unreflective of the real economy. We should take everything with a grain of salt. Lastly, the economy will definitely recover and grow at a slower rate.

Not a home owner/slave either!

No, wait! look! a distraction! Afghanistan…

@ wolf,Congratulations, I think this is one of the best summations I have seen on this site in quite a long time! You are exactly right, it’s a zero sum game.This is similar to a post that I had nearly a year ago where I summed it up something like that if the FED/Treasury wins the battle against this catastrophe we (ordinary people) end up losing, while if the FED/Treasury loses the battle then we (nearly everyone) ends up losing. In other words were going all out here for the benefit of a small percent. I also said that even the win will only be a numerical type win that only an accountant could love, not a defining victory that would launch us into prosperity.The point you so clearly illustrate is that within closed systems some of the FED/Treasury actions may have arguable merits. The problem comes when the “openings” leak out into the rest of the system. The goal is to try to rebuild the financial system before the leaks overwhelm the result. The underlying problem is that these same actors argued and benefited from opening the system more globally but are fixing it as if large pieces of it are isolated to a few circles of money flows. We are about to see that this is not the case.

Well you intellectually superior snob, why don’t you shove off and leave us morons in peace?! (go spend some time reading a dictionary; maybe your mother can teach you a couple of new words?)

In terms of economics Schiff is right. However, outside of the laboratory his “solutions” will fail- the real world will stop the Ponzi system’s need for growth.

Lastly, the economy will definitely recover and grow at a slower rate.And could you define what “recover” and “grow” means?Recover, for most, would mean a return to a particular level. The level that we fell from was so far overheated that it would be impossible to achieve again (for anything more than a very brief time). This “overheatedness” IS “growth.” And it is being borrowed from the future. As we progress into the future we will find that we no longer have the ability to borrow: not enough younger bodies, not enough cheap resources.As to the millions of unemployed, they will never become re-employed. Sad, but true. Well, they could, but only if we kicked out all the illegals (be prepared to work in the fields!) and made it illegal for younger people to work (they could be put through school, perhaps the only possible subsidy that could have any value).

come again? I don’t understand what are you trying to say. It seems clear to me and I guess anyone who reads the comment by Alessandro that by failure he means exactly the “short-sighted economic nonsense”.

I’ve kept updating myself as time gos by:-)

Skip navigationSymbol LookupAll CNBC | News | VideoWelcome, GuestRegisterSign InMember CenterSign OutRegisterHOMENEWSMARKETSEARNINGSINVESTINGVIDEOCNBC TVCNBC 360U.S.Asia-PacificEuropeEconomyEnergyGreenTechnologyBlogsWiresSlideshowsSpecial ReportsCorrectionsMORE HEADLINESMarkets | Economy | CompaniesCurrent DateTime: 01:54:25 17 Nov 2009LinksList Documentid: 23452764Expiration DateTime: 11/17/2009 1:57:24 AM*oLehman Sues Barclays Over Windfall Profits*o US Top Banks Warn Congress on ‘Break-Up’ Riskso Obama Nudges Hu on Yuan; to Ease Trade Tensionso UBS Targets $15 Billion Annual Profit in Mid-Termo Fed’s Kohn Sees No Asset Bubbles Building in USo Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Boosts Stake in Wal-Marto Microsoft Co-founder Allen Diagnosed with Cancero Time Warner to Spin Off AOL on December 9o Gates Boosts Waste Management, Coca Cola Stakeso US Cities With Most Underwater MortgagesLATEST FROM OUR BLOGSMoreCurrent DateTime: 01:54:40 17 Nov 2009LinksList Documentid: 23452000Expiration DateTime: 11/17/2009 1:57:40 AM*o Stock Rally May Drive Strong Consumer Spending: Economist*o Answers to Your Questions: A Path to Economic Disaster?o 5 Ways to Play the Chinese Markets: Analysto Meredith Whitney: Turns Bearisho 3 Stock Plays on Rising College Costso Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Almost Doubles Wal-Mart Holdings During Summero Nov. 16: Unusual Volume Leaderso Getting to the Heart of the Merck-Abbott Embargo Breako What MGM’s Sale Could Say About Value of Contento My Ratings on Lowe’s & Home Depot: AnalystMOST SHAREDCurrent DateTime: 01:54:45 17 Nov 2009LinksList Documentid: 31330905Expiration DateTime: 11/17/2009 1:57:45 AM*o Market Task Forceo U.S. May Wind Up Green With Envyo US Top Banks Warn Congress on ‘Break-Up’ Riskso Has Twitter’s Finest Hours (Seconds) Come and Gone?o Stocks Overvalued, Recession Will Return: Meredith Whitneyo Time Warner to Spin Off AOL on December 9o Playing Nintendo’s Wii May Actually be Good for Youo Stocks May Rise Further after Fed Waves on ‘Risk Trade’o Indonesia Urges Antam to Buy Newmont Share Stakeo Oil Sheds Gains, Falls Below $79 Ahead of DataFEATURED SLIDESHOWSMoreCurrent DateTime: 01:04:25 17 Nov 2009LinksList Documentid: 24355697*10 Tips to Get Out of DebtRenowned financial author Gail Vaz-Oxlade takes a tough-love approach to helping couples in a financial crisis to face reality.*Cities With the Most Home Price ReductionsThe real estate website Trulia.com found that 25.6% of US listings have seen at least one price reduction.*Madoff Property AuctionBernard and Ruth Madoff’s personal possessions, seized by the Feds earlier this year, will be auctioned this weekend.FEATURED QUIZZESCurrent DateTime: 01:02:10 17 Nov 2009LinksList Documentid: 33793611*How Much Do You Know About Green?Green has become part of our everyday lives. Green is everywhere– energy, clothing, food, housing, transportation. It’s a big business and a global business.*The Billionaire BFF’sPhilanthropists. Bridge partners. Hockey players. Which responses are based on facts from Buffett’s and Gates’ real lives?*The Many Myths of Coca-ColaCan you tell which statements are true, and which ones are just rumors?SPECIAL REPORTSMoreCurrent DateTime: 01:04:25 17 Nov 2009LinksList Documentid: 24890560*Winterizing Your PortfolioIf 2009 was the winter of our discontent, will 2010 be a winter wonderland for investors? A lot depends on the recovery—or lack thereof.*Investor’s Guide to Real EstateSome even say the long-awaited recovery is here. Regardless, buyers and sellers alike can profit from our guide.*Alternative InvestingStocks and bonds? Sure. But it’s a big world out there for investors.CNBC ON DIGGpowered by diggStocks Overvalued, Recession Will Return: Meredith Whitneyhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/33972133

in comming weeks and months, we will see significant move in treasury yield and bond price. wuaHAHAHAAA, will be interesting which direction it takes.

An interesting article from the Asia Times by Mark Hutchinson:http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/KK18Dj01.htmlHe makes some pretty pessimistic predictions for the economy while claiming gold could easily reach $2000 in six months.”As I said, a train wreck. Probability of arrival: close to 100%. Time of arrival: around the end of 2010, or possibly a bit earlier. And at this stage, there’s very little anyone can do about it; the definitive rise of gold above $1,000 marked the point of no return. “

There was a splendid article on Nov 4 by Money Week Magazine (British) writer Dominic Frisby on the S&P 500 vs the dollar. Very nice charts with simple but convincing trendlines drawn in. See what you think (assuming the link works)!http://www.me.com/wo/WebObjects/Webmail2.woa/wa/DirectAction/emptyPage?&action=view&mids=468&iscsec=9138514428714cf7156b08bebe19ff4823bc39c7e23ffd5d90b3a0c21564ce68Easy to subscribe to this daily email and highly worthwhile in my opinion, though I didn’t find their magazine as useful.

Timmy Geithner: loyal servant to the big banks.The Fed itself maintains that:While the Fed’s Washington-based Board of Governors is a federal agency subject to the Freedom of Information Act and other government rules, the New York Fed and other regional banks maintain they are separate institutions, owned by their member banks, and not subject to federal restrictions.So really Geithner – as head of the private bank-owned and managed New York Fed – was simply serving his constituency: the giant New York money center banks. Geithner’s constituency never was the American public.http://www.zerohedge.com/article/special-inspector-aig-counterparty-volunteered-take-haircut-geithner-refusedIt feels so good to have powerful friends to help a little by shifting taxpayers and savers money into your direction. The country serves the banks. The banks serve themselves.

Main Street Tells Wall Street, ‘Get a Real Job’: Susan AntillaShare Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A Commentary by Susan AntillaNov. 16 (Bloomberg) — Wall Street, meet Eric W. Haugaard, a civil engineer who designs water and sewer-line systems for the North Carolina Department of Transportation. Haugaard says he had tears in his eyes as he watched Barack Obama’s acceptance speech, hopeful that politics would get more constructive and the economic crisis would get fixed. Today, he is disgusted when he thinks about “what Wall Street has done to average, honest, tax-paying, no-loopholes citizens,” and says it makes him ill when he considers that Congress is letting taxpayer-assisted financial outfits get rich “without producing anything of real value to our society.”Haugaard, one of dozens of readers who e-mailed me in response to a Nov. 3 column titled “Wall Street Cries ‘Feed Me’ or World Will End,” is despondent that, even after the economic horror of the past year, people in finance are unrepentant. “I want these swine prosecuted,” wrote Robert Carlini of Richmond, Michigan, an auto-industry executive who says he is a “staunch conservative.”In the 14 years I’ve written columns for Bloomberg News, I’ve had plenty of feedback from investors who said they lost money at the hands of corrupt brokers, plus a steady stream of vitriol from financial executives who say I’m clueless, stupid, and deserve to lose my job.I have never, though, been bombarded with anything like the fury and frustration expressed this time by people far removed from Wall Street, ranging from computer programmers to administrative assistants to the caretaker of an estate. Typically a handful of e-mails will float in; this time the number topped 60 and counting.Expressing DisillusionChase Van Der Rhoer of HSBC Securities in New York, one of six Bloomberg customers from Wall Street who responded, said I had it all wrong. I was “uninformed” for painting all Wall Street firms with the same brush no matter whether they received a bailout. He suggested that an emotional outcry by the public shouldn’t be the basis of setting public policy. Four of the Bloomberg customers who wrote, though, expressed disillusion with how out-of-touch their own industry has become.Off Wall Street, the rage is palpable. Several readers said they were so enraged that acts of violence were called for against figures in finance. Most, though angry, managed to stake positions a tad more constructive. For starters, they are mystified that government is loaded with economic decision-makers who hail from finance. Obama’s top staff “seems to be tied more to Wall Street than to Main Street,” wrote Patrick Williams, a manager in Orlando, Florida.Treasury’s Goldmanites“If this administration really wanted to create policy and push agendas helpful to consumers, it would not have a Treasury Department populated by Goldmanites and other Wall Street alums,” wrote Melissa Huelsman, a lawyer in Seattle.A number of readers said that we should have simply tested the capitalist system and let financial firms fail. “Americans are innovators,” wrote Steven Smith, an out-of-work MRI technologist in Austin, Texas. “We would have figured out a new way, a better way to do business without the greedy monsters on Wall Street.” A great starting point would be to slash bankers’ pay 60 percent across the board, in the view of Richard Watson, a software writer in Johannesburg, South Africa. He figures that might lead to some smart people in finance relocating to jobs where people “produce something.” I hate to break it to you, Wall Street, but Main Street is puzzled about why the monetary rewards of the industry seem so out of synch with its social contribution. The work of Wall Street “doesn’t go toward curing cancer, feeding the world’s poor, creating new innovative technologies to take us to a post- carbon-powered world — it does no real work,” wrote Wayne Wells, who works for a paper company in Eastover, South Carolina.Wall Street RapWe’ve heard the Wall Street rap on this. The world — or at least a tiny, flush segment of it — will suffer if limits are put on compensation. Innovation will go limp as talented financial workers quit for higher-paying jobs. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief Lloyd Blankfein told the Times of London last week that his firm fulfills a “social purpose” when it raises capital that helps companies grow.But Main Street isn’t up in arms about the capital-raising role of Wall Street. They’re upset because they are paying for the damage caused by credit-default swaps and other “innovations.” Terry Bailey of Auburn, Nebraska, an office assistant at a local college, says the financial industry is out of touch with the public and weighed down with an inflated view of its value. If new regulations lead to a stifling of innovation on Wall Street, Jim Ledbetter, an electric-utility engineer in Southaven, Mississippi, says “So what?”Ferraris Dusted OffSo far, though, the reaction to Main Street’s ire has been an equally vociferous “So what,” as the financial industry prepares to dole out bonuses that will have the Ferrari dealers hustling to brush the dust off their inventory. That disconnect between what Main Street thinks and how Wall Street acts might reflect nothing more than obliviousness to the concerns of the average person. A second possibility is more troubling. If people on Wall Street have chits in with everybody that matters, who cares if the public is mad? Stewart Ewen, a Hunter College professor who writes on contemporary culture, tells me his guess is that Wall Street owns the decision makers and doesn’t care about the rest. If I thought the public had any money left to bet on it, I’d tell them to ante up that Ewen’s hunch is right.

If This is Recovery…11/14/09If this is Recovery, Where Are the Taxes?Last Business StandingStimulus, What Stimulus?The Reality of UnemploymentLet the Good Times RollThe Quick Double-Dip ScenarioPhoenix, New York, and Thoughts on the InternetBy John MauldinNo one goes into Wal-Mart and asks to pay extra sales tax. Thus sales taxes arereasonable barometers for retail sales. This week we look at how taxes are doing in aperiod of economic recovery. Then we turn our eyes to a very interesting (and sobering)analysis of possible future unemployment rates. This is an anecdote to the happy-faceanalysis of employment numbers you get from establishment economists. There will be alot of charts and tables, so this letter may print a little longer, but I think you will find itvery interesting.If This is Recovery, Where Are the Taxes?I keep reading about surveys that show that retail sales are up. But as noted above,no one pays extra sales taxes, or decides they need to pay more income taxes. The surestway to measure retail sales is sales taxes. Want to know how incomes are doing? Look atincome tax receipts. Let’s look at sales taxes first.First off, I can find no single source of recent sales tax information. It is all one-off,but it is consistent. Sales taxes in my home state of Texas are down 12.8% year-overyear,and we’re in the fifth straight month of decreases of 11% or more. Projections arefor sales taxes to continue to decline into 2010.There is a very revealing study by the Pew Center on state taxes, called “BeyondCalifornia” (http://www.pewcenteronthestates.org/). Everyone knows how bad Californiais. The Pew Center looks at how the rest of the states are doing, and focuses on 10 statesthat also have severe problems. Sales tax receipts are down 14% in Arizona, and stateincome taxes are down 32%. On average, revenues are down almost 12%. Oregon has seen their revenues collapse a stunning 19%. New York is down 17%, with a deficit of 32%. Illinois has a projected deficit of 47% of its budget, second only to California with 49%. You can see how your state fares athttp://downloads.pewcenteronthestates.org/Beyond_California_Appendix.pdf.The Liscio Report notes that all states had negative year-over-year sales taxcollections in October, and the weighted average decrease was 10.2%, down from anegative 7.2% in September. (www.theliscioreport.com)If This is Recovery…Sales at Wal-Mart stores slipped by 0.4% in the third quarter. Actual governmentfigures show that retail sales were down 1.5% in September from the previous month and5.8% year-over-year. So how do we keep seeing headlines about retail sales being up, asUnemployment keeps rising? Remember that such reports are usually based on surveys, and generally cover id-sized and up retailers, leaving out smaller businesses. Further, if you are a retail chain that has closed 10% of its stores, the remaining stores should in theory benefit fromGetting your loyal customers into them.Last Business StandingYesterday I was with an associate, and I hesitated in asking them how theirbusiness was doing, because I knew things had been tough at the beginning of the year.But I did ask, and they said sales were up over the last months and business was lookingbetter. Surprised, I asked them what made the difference. “Ah,” they said, “lesscompetition. Our competitors have gone out of business.”Best Buy and other electronic retailers had to benefit from Circuit Citydisappearing. That is Schumpeter’s creative destruction at work. Not very good for totalemployment, but it does help the profitability of the survivors.So, if things are so bad, how did we have 3.5% growth in the third quarter? Firstoff, things are not as bad as they were in the past year. We are in fact getting close to aneconomic bottom, at least for now. Second, the 3.5% number is a preliminary estimate. Astudy by Goldman Sachs suggests that the number will be revised down by at least 0.5%and maybe as much as 1%.Why? The estimate does not really take into account how poorly small businessesare performing. If you look at small-business indexes and compare them to historicalGDP numbers, you get the smaller number mentioned above. And since at least 2% of theGDP was from the stimulus package (Cash for Clunkers, houses, tax cuts), the economyon its own was flat. That begs the question, what happens when the stimulus runs out?And the answer is that we won’t know for some time, as the stimulus is justgetting ramped up. “According to CBO estimates, only 21% of [the stimulus] spendingwill occur in 2009; another 38% will come in 2010, and 22% in 2011. After that, itseffect will dissipate quickly.” (The Liscio Report)But David Rosenberg notes that what the federal government is giving, the statesare taking away. The Pew Study shows that at least nine other states are in appallingshape, so it is no wonder that David writes:Stimulus, What Stimulus?If This is Recovery…3 11/14/09“Fully nine states are in fiscal distress and only two have balanced budgets. Stateslike Michigan are planning 20% budget cuts for the coming year. Indiana is planning a10% spending cut in light of a 7.4% YoY revenue decline. How can the economy reallybe out of recession if government revenues are still deflating?“The states are filling around 40% of their fiscal gaps with the federal stimulus(so much for spending on “shovel ready” infrastructure projects). Even after the fiscalhelp from Washington, the state governments will still face a projected deficit of $142billion for 2011 (versus $113 billion in 2010). All in, the restraint in the state and localgovernment sector is estimated to drain a full percentage point from U.S. GDP growth in2010 and more than fully offset the stimulative efforts from Washington. The U.S.economy is more likely to post growth of little more than 2% next year, rather than the5% currently being discounted by the equity market.”The Reality of UnemploymentAll this is, of course, going to put continued pressure on employment. As I notedlast week, the number of unemployed actually soared by 558,000, to 15.7 million, asmeasured by the household survey, not the 190,000 you read about in the mainstreammedia. Unemployment is sadly continuing to rise by significant amounts.In August, I did an interview with CNBC from Leen’s Fishing Lodge in Maine.The unemployment numbers had just come out. I did a back-of-the-napkin estimate thatwe would need about 15 million new jobs over the next five years just to get back towhere we were when the recession started.That works out to a need for about 125,000 new jobs each month to handle newworkers coming into the market (which comes to a total of 7.5 million over five years),plus the 8 million and rising jobs we’ve lost. That is a daunting number. It amounts to250,000 new jobs a month every month for five years. And we are still losing more thanthat number a month, let alone adding the needed 250,000.Look at the chart below. It shows the establishment survey employment figuresfor the last ten years. Only once, in 1999, did we actually add over 250,000 jobs a monthfor a whole year. And that was during the internet boom.If This is Recovery…Sadly, the private sector has shed over 300,000 jobs since 1999. Think about that.We have had a decade where there have been no new jobs added by the private sector.Real incomes are roughly where they were, and the stock market is down. Talk about alost decade. I love it when someone does the really heavy lifting for me, and my friend Mike Shedlock of Sitka Pacific Capital Management has done a wonderful job of taking that speculation of mine and putting it into a spreadsheet that helps us get a real handle on what unemployment is likely to look like for the next ten years. I am going to make use of his basic analysis and then modify some of his assumptions in the spreadsheet heprovided me, in order to think about different scenarios.All three scenarios are based on assumptions, so let’s see what Mish started with.There is a wealth of data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the CensusBureau. According to the Census Bureau Population Estimates we are going to add about2.5 million working-age (16 years old and up) citizens a year, from now until 2020. Thenumbers varies slightly year to year. Mish used an estimate of the average, summing upthe buckets from 16 to 100+ for the years in question and rounding the result.You can go to the BLS site and look at Table A-1, which shows the civiliannoninstitutional population (those over 16 not in prisons), the participation rate (thosewho are working and/or want to work), the unemployment rate, the number employed,those not in the labor force, and those who want a job. Those are starting numbers for thecharts below.For those interested, you can read Mish’s very full (and quite detailed) analysis athis blog site http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/mish-unemploymentprojections-through.html) . But let’s look at his assumptions:• Job losses are likely to continue for a minimum of another year.• When job gains start, they will be very slow at first, then pick up.• An extremely generous monthly job gain stat over the course of the year would be150,000 jobs.If This is Recovery…• A falling participation rate (boomers retiring) will continue to mask reportedunemployment.• Starting in 2013 the labor pool will start decreasing because of Boomerdemographics.• The noninstitutional population will rise by 2.5 million workers a year.The spreadsheet below needs a little explanation. Let’s start with the assumptions.Mike starts with current working-age population and adds 2.5 million people a year. Heassumes that Boomers will retire at 65 (something which all the surveys say is not goingto happen). And his last estimate is what the unemployment numbers will be. Everythingelse is based on those assumptions, which leads to the first column, or the expectedunemployment number.By the way, we know that everyone will want to make different assumptions. I amgoing to create three scenarios, but you can go to Mike’s blog and at the bottom of thepost is a link to the actual spreadsheet. Have fun. Let’s look at scenario 1.This assumes there is no double-dip recession, and jobs roughly rise along thesame lines as the last recovery. Actually, Mish is far more optimistic, as in the very firstchart you will notice that job losses were negative in the first year after the end of therecession and flat the second year. Mish has jobs rising by 120,000 next year and 600,000the second year (2011), and then a fairly robust recovery. Below is the graph of theunemployment numbers under such a scenario.If This is Recovery…Notice that unemployment stays at or above 11% for three years. Pessimistic?Mainstream and usually very optimistic Mark Zandi of http://www.economy.com predicted thisweek that unemployment would rise to 11% by the middle of next year, right in line withthis scenario. Also note that total jobs rise by 14 million over ten years. Hardly doom andgloom. Again, Boomers all retire on time and there is no double-dip recession.Let the Good Times RollWhat would it take to get back to 5% unemployment? I played with thespreadsheet and came up with the following numbers, which get us below 5% by 2020. Iassume no recessions for the next ten years, and 2 million new jobs a year after 2011,which I start off with almost 1.5 million jobs. Of course, we have never done that, butlet’s be optimistic.And the graph below shows the unemployment numbers for the Good TimesScenario.If This is Recovery…Want to get to 5% within five years? Add 3 million jobs a year starting now. Withno housing recovery, a smaller auto industry, and financial firms getting leaner.The Quick Double-Dip ScenarioWhen I called the last two recessions about a year before they happened, it wasnot all that hard. We had inverted yield curves, falling leading indicators, and a lot ofother data that pretty much pointed to a recession. Believing that we had a housingbubble and a looming credit crisis also helped my conviction in calling the last recession.I think we are in for a double-dip recession in 2011, yet I readily admit there willbe little if any statistical evidence in advance this time. This is more of an instinct call. Ihave serious doubts that we can have what amounts to the largest tax increase of all timein what will be a very weak (albeit growing) economy, without putting us back intorecession. And Speaker Pelosi thinks it is a smart thing to add another 5.4% surtax onwhat will already be a rising capital gains and dividend tax.Taxing small businesses, and that is what the tax increase amounts to, is a verybad idea in a weak economy. Small businesses are where the job growth comes from.Taking money from productive businesses and giving it to government is a fundamentallyflawed concept.Now, if they decide to postpone the tax increase, or phase it in slowly, then maybewe avoid the double dip. But right now it doesn’t look like that will be the case. So, let’squickly see what a double-dip scenario might look like. Let’s be optimistic and assumewe only lose another 1.2 million jobs in the next recession, since we have already lost somany in this one (8 million and counting). And then the economy comes roaring back in2012 with 1.5 million jobs and continues to grow rather smartly for the rest of the decade.No further recession. We absorb the tax increases and move on with our economic lives.If This is Recovery…Unemployment under such a scenario would rise to just under 13% and stayabove 10% for 8 years. Take a look at the chart and graph.Think 13% is too dire? This week David Rosenberg said unemployment wouldrise to between 12-13%. The former Merrill Lynch economist was one of the fewmainstream economists who called the recession and the credit crisis. The so-called“Blue Chip” economists told us at the beginning of 2008 that unemployment would peakout at 6%. While Rosie is not optimistic of late, he has a rather solid record of beingright.We are at 10.2% unemployment today. The economy lost jobs for 21 months afterthe end of the last recession. That would easily take us into 2011. Another million lostjobs will take us well over 11% and close to 12% (remember, you have to add in theincreasing population), even without my double-dip scenario.The letter is getting long and it’s getting late, so let me close with a few thoughts.If This is Recovery…First, 12% unemployment is horrendous by American standards. But Spain is nowat 20%, and much of Europe has been in the 10% range for years.Second, Americans are not used to the concept of 12% unemployment or 10%rates for extended periods. That is going to cause a serious backlash across the politicalspectrum. Couple that with the discomfort over $1.5-trillion deficits and there could besome serious political changes in the coming years. I think the message will be more anti-incumbent han one party or the other.Third, the only way out of this morass is to create an environment where smallbusiness can thrive. As I’ve noted for the last several weeks in this letter, governmentspending does not increase GDP over time. It is a temporary nonproductive stimulus. Ittakes private investment to create jobs and increase productivity. Over the next fewmonths, I will write more about how to do that.Phoenix, New York, and Thoughts on the InternetNext week I take a quick one-day trip to Phoenix, then back to do a satelliteremotespeech to a South African hedge fund conference. I will be in New York the firstweekend of December (the 4th) for Festivus, a great fundraiser for kids sponsored byTodd Harrison and the team at Minyanville (http://www.rpfoundation.org/). Interestingly,they hold it every year at a “Texas” barbecue joint. Look me up if you are there.The 7 kids, spouses, and grandkids are starting to gather. We will all have brunchSunday and then a shower for Tiffani. She has another 6 weeks before she is due, and sheis really uncomfortable. Walking is literally a pain.Permit me to reminisce. A little over 9 years ago I started this letter on the internetwith about 2,000 email addresses. It was a new version of what had been a print letter, asthat was the business I knew. The internet was still a new thing to me, but it seemed likea good idea at the time. Little did I know.I am still amazed at the growth and the direction my business and life have taken.My letters are sent out by various publishers and affiliates to over 1.5 million readers andposted on dozens of web sites, and the numbers have been growing rapidly of late. I amgrateful. But I wonder what would happen if I started it today. Ten years ago there waslittle in the way of free economic letters. Not a lot of competition.Today, there is so much free information that it’s staggering. There have to bethousands of blogs and hundreds of free letters, some with very large circulations. Itseems a new star is born every few months. While much of it does not add to the level ofconversation, some of it is quite excellent. I think I am lucky to have started when I did.And I am grateful for the kind attention you give me. As I turn 60, I note that thishas been a rather overwhelming last ten years. A lot of changes for me, and almost all ofthem very good. But there are more to come. The last two flights I was on I wasconnected to the internet at 35,000 feet. I sense a lot more changes coming. I am thinkinga lot about how to keep up and not get left behind, how to make sure that you, gentlereader, continue to get my best. That is what, at the end of the day, drives me.Have a great week. I know I shall. Dad loves it when his kids (from 15 to 32) andspouses and grandkids are all under one roof.Your amazed at it all analyst,John Mauldin

While we patiently wait for something to happen.Something that indicates a change.Something that can’t continue at some point just stops.Round and round and round we go, where this all stops, no one knows.How many deck chairs have been removed?What will all the people do when they find out their are now totally excluded from the game?Will people really act as sheep or will they act as hyenas?My guess is that the sheeple stage is close to an end and so far the next act has yet to be written due to the confusion and strife among the writers guild. Many want to continue or current act, even though the audience is not only getting restless but hungry.It is going to be interesting to see how this all turns out.

Not one word on the nearly trillion dollars spent per year on the wars in the Middle East and Central Asia. I suppose these subjects are off the board when it comes to calculating deficit spending.

Yup! Hail Caesar!But the US is a “peaceful nation”! Sick!

It’s not the world that’s in peril, it’s the SYSTEM; and, good riddance to such a bad design! People and the planet will be better off; the transition, however, will be absolutely brutal- people should always remember that everything is just transitory.

Still doing crack?

Let there be little doubt that this is fascism.

If we’d stop dumping billions in the sands of the Middle East we wouldn’t have this deficiency! This has to raise a far more troubling question- Which is it, total incompetence (unlikely- TPTB aren’t going to allow their system to take them out), or the understanding that the loss of control over ME oil (wars in Iraq and Afghanistan) will be the end of this system?

How do you know if the growth in initial claims for unemployment insurance has peaked ?There’s many occurences when it looked as if it had peaked (eg 1981, 2000, 2002) but then it reversed course a few months later and went to new highs…You’re correct to note a strong correlation between unemployement and initial claims, but I think it’s too early to call a peak on the growth in initial claims.

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