A Balanced Global Diet
From the International Herald Tribune:
Global imbalances — roughly defined, the different emphasis the world’s leading economies place on savings, spending and debt — is a phrase much used and little acted upon.
Well before the current financial crisis began, world leaders pledged to address this disconnect. At an International Monetary Fund meeting in 2007, for instance, representatives of the United States and the European Union agreed they should change economic incentives to encourage more savings and less spending; officials speaking for China, Japan and Germany, meanwhile, pledged to take steps to encourage spending. At the end of the day, nothing much happened, and these imbalances helped grease the skids for the global descent toward the economic abyss.
This might not be readily apparent from current numbers; in fact, the financial crisis has contributed to a significant narrowing of global economic imbalances. Consumers in so-called “deficit countries” — states like the U.S., Britain, Spain and the countries of Eastern Europe that have huge trade deficits — are saving more as the crisis has exposed the dangerous extent of their indebtedness. Meanwhile, in China and other large export-driven economies, fiscal stimulus spending and some other policy moves have encouraged more domestic consumption.
The reduction in the U.S. current account deficit — the broadest measure of trade in goods and services — is particularly striking and serves as an example. This reduction holds true across other, less robust economies, too. Many of the emerging economies of Eastern Europe had easily financed wide deficits during the boom years. Now they find they are reducing private consumption in light of the lack of credit.
In more desperate cases like Ukraine and Kazakhstan, this has necessitated currency devaluation that boosts the costs of imports. Others, especially Eastern European countries in line for E.U. membership, have clung to their currency pegs. This leaves room for adjustment only via a sharp reduction in domestic demand.
Changing ingrained habits — whether the tendency is to be too thrifty, or too loose with money — is never easy. There is a powerful temptation to point at current trends and argue that rebalancing is taking place naturally. That would be a big mistake.
All evidence suggests that this rebalancing is temporary — the result of reactive policy measures among exporters and retrenchment among the profligate.
China, the world’s sovereign wealth machine over the past decade, is a case in point. My colleague, Rachel Ziemba, projects China’s current account surplus will likely narrow to $350-370 billion depending on the import trajectory, down from a record $420 billion in 2008. China’s trade surplus was just under $100 billion in the first half of 2009. A trade surplus of about $30 billion in the third quarter of this year is expected, which is well below 2008 levels. Increased spending at home rather than savings could further reduce the surplus. Yet with China reluctant to allow currency appreciation, reserve accumulation has resumed at a strong pace.
Although the export-oriented growth model has been shaken by the crisis, many countries seem reluctant to recalibrate. The beginning of inventory restocking has buoyed Asia significantly, as companies that cut back sharply have now increased output. Avoiding currency appreciation will exacerbate this trend, adding to reserve accumulation and distortions.
The most recent I.M.F. estimates — released in the October 2009 World Economic Outlook — suggest that imbalances could widen again but remain lower (as a share of G.D.P.) than their 2006 peak. Yet the dollar values of these imbalances could be very large.
In the I.M.F.’s forecast, China’s surplus will widen again in 2010, even as a retrenched U.S. consumer remains weak.
So who offsets the U.S. deficit? The I.M.F. suggests a diffusion of imbalances, where surpluses of Germany and Japan will remain in shrinking mode even in 2010, while the deficits of Canada and Australia, as well as emerging economies like Brazil, will offset the growth of China’s surplus.
However, the I.M.F. five-year projections also show a widening current account surplus for the entire world. This could suggest that some of the underlying export assumptions are too optimistic given the growth estimates.
Global imbalances are back on the policy agenda with the G-20 agreeing to create a peer review of macroeconomic policies including imbalances to avoid another crisis. The details are limited so far, but focus once again on an agreement that the U.S. will consume less and save more; Japan, Germany and China will spend more and will reallocate investment away from the export sector.
These are the right goals, to be sure. But a joint communiqué from a nascent international organization isn’t much to hang the world’s hat upon. The I.M.F. needs teeth, perhaps along the lines of the W.T.O.’s authority to prod member states toward “out of court” settlements, in order to enforce these difficult political and economic goals.
These imbalances represent serious misallocations of capital in domestic economies that, projected globally, raise the risks considerably of future financial crises and asset bubbles.
While imbalances did not cause the current financial crisis — I believe lax regulation bears a far greater onus — these imbalances certainly helped create the conditions for this crisis. Easy money and low long-term interest rates created an incentive to invest in seemingly-safe high-yield assets. An orderly unwinding of imbalances might put a lid on global growth during the adjustment, but is fundamental to achieve sustainable global growth.
Nouriel Roubini is a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University.
81 Responses to “A Balanced Global Diet”
Winston Smith • October 28th, 2009 at 10:28 am
First
Guest • October 28th, 2009 at 10:49 am
damn!
Guest • October 28th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
first second damn
Guest • October 28th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
Headline in germany:US new homesales decline UNEXPECTED!!!!!Hahahahahahahahahahahah
Guest • October 28th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Hey, all bad news has to be unexpected, or nobody would be able to explain why they were so confident in the economy rebounding, in spite of nearly all indicators to the contrary. Besides, they were all depending on the $8000 new-homeowner tax credit to properly goose the numbers for them. Who wants to bet that they extend the deadline on that tax credit?
MA • October 28th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
This question goes out to any of the financial guys…Any buzz on the “overnights”???Rates that equal “free money” (essentially free) do not have much room to move down without doing the mmkt equivalent of “breaking the buck”.Is there a precedent of this happening in the overnight market?Did rates drop in the treasury auctions?Is one drop affecting the other?I’d love to hear any input.All the best,Miss America
P&L • October 28th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
Mortgage loan modification not working out? Here’s an idea…http://news.aol.com/article/forclosure-victims-charged-with-beating/739825Be sure to check out the comments…55/zip for the beaters vs. the cheaters! Heading towards pitchforks and torches?
P&L • October 28th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
Mortgage loan modification not working out? Here’s an idea…http://news.aol.com/article/forclosure-victims-charged-with-beating/739825Be sure to check out the comments…55/zip for the beaters vs. the cheaters! Heading towards pitchforks and torches?
Guest • October 28th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Actually, it seems that ALL the news is “unexpected” (the “good” as well). Which makes me wonder what the heck all these people who are supposed to actually be looking in to things are doing! Never mind, I forgot, people in the US don’t actually do anything anymore, they just shuffle OPM!
Guest • October 28th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Well, there’s that, too. See, if the good news is “better than expected”, that means it’s not only good news, it’s fantabulous news worthy of market-boosting celebration! It’s all about the spin.
Chignos • October 28th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
The IMF “needs [enforcement]teeth?” No, the IMF needs to go away. I think Roubini has totally lost it.
Guest of Guests • October 28th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
Do any of you “firsts” have a daytime job? Or you guys just keep hanging around 24/7/365 to type “first?” Anyway, enjoy your “first.” It will help you buy your groceries.
Gloomy • October 28th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Well folks, I’m heading overseas for a little jaunt. Despite getting crushed in my Leap puts this year, I have continued buying them into the future during this monster sucker rally and I am starting to feel that the tide is about to turn. I think Gary Shilling’s target of somewhere in the 600′s on the S&P in the next 6 months is pretty likely. We’ll see. Adios!!
11b40 • October 28th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
New home sales fall a surprising 3.6 percent.http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-home-sales-fall-a-apf-2092653495.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=Only a surprise if you are still smoking hopium.Poeple are still losing jobs, having wages and work-week reductions, facing increased taxes, energy costs on on the march again, and THERE IS NO DEMAND. On top of that, more and more people are coming to realize that deflation is here in many categories, and virtually anything related to real estate will probably be cheaper later. Who wants to step up and bid on a declining asset.On top of that, so many people can’t sell now, and the trade-up market is really in the crapper. Most want to trade down, but find themselves stuck – just as the first wave of baby boomers were preparing to cash out.I was at a function Sunday that a Congressman also attended. He was not in the room 5 minutes before several RE Agents and a builder cornered him to lobby for expanding the first-time homeowner credit from $8K to $15K. They were not shy at all about how important it was to them – and not one of them would consider themselves as socilaists, but I do, and these are wealthy people.The good news? He essentially told them it was not going to happen. The bad news? The $8K will very likely be extended.We are so stupid, selfish, and greedy. This is like trying to put out a fire with gasoline. Pile more debt on our progeny, just don’t let me suffer any personal pain. It’s the American way.Independent Contractor
Guest • October 28th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
America, land of the free lunch, home of the financially enslaved.
Guest • October 28th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/House-Democrats-prepare-to-apf-3280879951.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=Democrats money around in capital hill.
11b40 • October 28th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
Enjoy yourself, Gloomy. Just take plenty of cash and get ready for sticker shock.If those are 2010 Leaps, my bet is that you will be fine.@MICHELLE:A few threads back, I noticed you called me out on my conviction and asked if I were short? I did not see the question in time to respond in that thread, but will answer now. Yep, very much so. The accumulation triggers were S&P over 1050, DOW over 9800. The assumption being that we might establish new highs in the 1120 & 10,300 area, but the upside potential FAR lower than the potential drop.I only trade ETF’s & first went short 2/08, trading them up & down until 2/09 when I cashed out. Here is a sample of an opinion I have come to respect. Note the date:*** Trend Change Alert *** (09-01-2009)By Simon Maierhofer, Co-FounderIt’s been nearly six months since we’ve issued our last Trend Change Alert. In hindsight, we can say that the rally from the March lows has surely fullfilled the parameters outlined in our March 2nd Trend Change Alert. The parameters were as follows (in chronological order):- Biggest rally since the October 2007 highs- 30-40% gains- Top would be marked by extreme readings of optimism- Target range for a top: Dow 9,000 – 10,000 / S&P 950 – 1,050- Fibonacci resistance: Dow 9,456 / S&P 1,015- Fibonacci time for a market top: around September 22- Final market top at or around Dow 9,800 / S&P 1,050In last Thursday’s (8/27/09) Weekly Pick Market Meter, we noted the following: “It would fit the character of this rally (irrational, impulsive, and powerful) to deliver one, perhaps two more moves to new recovery highs above S&P 1,050 and Dow 9,800. Aggressive investors may consider adding more short ETFs (second stage) at current levels. Conservative investors may hold out for even lower short ETF prices, or until the downturn has been confirmed. (See our 8/13 analysis of short ETF strategies.) We will likely issue a trend change alert when a) the indexes push beyond 1,050 and 9,800 or b) a down trend has become obvious.On Friday, the Dow Jones climbed to 9,630 while the S&P briefly clocked in at 1,040. Even though another push towards and beyond Dow 9,800 and S&P 1,050 is possible, the odds favor a market top at Friday’s prices. Here is why: 1) The market’s advances were seriously repelled by Friday’s highs, 2) investor sentiment has reached extremes not seen since the October 2007 market top, 3) market breadth is waning, 4) the second leg of this rally (from July 10) has come on lower volume compared to the first leg from March 9, and 5) September has a reputation for ushering in bear markets (more reasons and corresponding research articles are listed below). Additionally, compared to the previous two weeks, Monday’s decline came on high volume and negative breadth, indicating that the majority of investors finally want to sell.Aggressive investors may now proceed to to the third and final stage of accumulating short ETFs. All others should be at stage 1 or 2 and leave room for the possibility of another push to new highs. If new highs do not occur, the final stages can be filled once the downturn has been confirmed. There are no specific confirmation levels at this point and the overall breadth of the decline will be the judge. As always, we will keep you posted via these pages.”This is just one of several opinions I follow, but when the fundamentals make no sense and the technicals are flashing red lights, it just might be time to at least lighten up, if not go short. Jst one man’s opinion.Independent Contractor
PeterJB • October 28th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
Speaking of Wall Street’s “blood funnel” injected into the heart of the ‘unwashed masses’, sic, er, aka Main Street:”When I asked Geithner whether he would accept a $1 trillion limit on the new bailout authority (if the executive branch wanted to spend more, it would have to come back to Congress), he rejected a $1 trillion limit, insisting that the executive branch be able to respond without coming back to Congress.”http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/A permanent blood transfusion: Any life forms out there that has achieved human being status yet?Ho hum
Guest • October 28th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
like i said, no foreclosure people are victims. they are all greedy bastards deserving their punishment for their greed. now they are taking out theiranger and hatred toward loan modification specialists. those scumbags.
PeteCA • October 28th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
Further evidence that the US market may be turning a corner this week (getting ready for a downturn) …1. The bank index $BKX has begun a deteriorate. This was a good indicator during the downturn after the Oct 2007 highs. For obvious reasons – this financial crisis is first and foremost a banking crisis. Lack of confidence shows up in $BKX.2. There is a selloff activity in gold mining stocks over the last couple of days ($HUI). They have broken below a rising channel. These stocks can be volatile, and some people use them as a “high beta” investment when gold has been doing well. But people can also drop them if they sense a market selloff (Impt: Physical bullion is not the same as gold mining stocks!).3. Chris Puplava had some good charts about non-confirmation using Dow theory at the following link:Puplava on Market Non-Confirmation4. Anyone looking at the third chart in Doug Wakefield’s latest data at the following link would surely conclude that people have been wildly bullish lately … over WHAT exactly??? Credit in the private sector in the USA is still evaporating – does anybody really think that Americans are going to start buying a lot of stuff?Wakefield Article – see 3rd Chart5. And here’s my litmus test. You’ll know when the economy really turns around – when boatloads of Americans start going out and buying new cars. Do you really see that happening in your neighborhood? I sure don’t.PeteCA
Guest • October 28th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/10/all-debt-is-not-created-equal-government-debt-is-not-the-same-as-private-debt.htmlwuaHAHAHA, force of dark side have converted and turned nakedcapitalism into its disciple. now he knows power of federal/local gov to spend and print money (the dark side). wuaHAHAHAHA!!!
Guest • October 28th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
We are so stupid, selfish, and greedy.>>This is a true portrait of this country. The only glue that holds this nation together is the Almighty Dollar. Once it collapses all hell will brake loose.
Anonymous • October 28th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
ooohh booyww3 here we comehttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/8cda145a-c3fe-11de-8de6-00144feab49a,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F8cda145a-c3fe-11de-8de6-00144feab49a.html%3Fnclick_check%3D1&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Ftickerforum.org%2Fcgi-ticker%2Fakcs-www%3Fpost%3D116093&nclick_check=1Saudis drop WTI oil contractBy Javier Blas in LondonPublished: October 28 2009 20:27 | Last updated: October 28 2009 20:27Saudi Arabia on Wednesday decided to drop the widely used West Texas Intermediate oil contract as the benchmark for pricing its oil, dealing a serious blow to the New York Mercantile Exchange.The decision by the world’s biggest oil exporter could encourage other producers to abandon the benchmark and threatens the dominance of the world’s most heavily traded oil futures contract. It is the main contract traded on Nymex.
Anonymous • October 28th, 2009 at 9:40 pm
and this..http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2620293120091026
PeteCA • October 28th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
Anon: Thanks for posting this. That’s a pretty interesting development. Naturally it raises a major question … what is the new pricing mechanism that the Saudi’s are going to use for oil? They MUST have decided on an alternative. This series of events demands that the Saudi’s stage a major press conference to explain the change in pricing mechanisms and to outline their future plan.In the mean time, let’s see what oil does on NYMEX tomorrow. You gotta’ figure that a lot of speculative buying could pull out of the oil futures market – after an announcement like this.Finally, don’t underestimate the “manipulative” nature of this announcement. It’s a direct attack on oil speculation at NYMEX. The question is … who really engineered this in backroom deals? Who gains … and who loses???PeteCA
. • October 28th, 2009 at 10:40 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cBafaTItck.http://www.richardccook.com/.http://www.pdf-search-engine.com/a-great-and-mighty-walk-pdf.html.http://archive.wbai.org/files/mp3/091028_150001talkback.MP3http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5784756819358533059.john henrik clark..http://www.garynull.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/GaryNullShow102809.mp3.
PeterJB • October 28th, 2009 at 11:24 pm
Speaking about that it is about time that Australia emerge from its colonial status and become a Republic (bringing both anger and despair to those ruling liberal and labour morons and jailers suffering with Stockholm Syndrome or IOW dump the Queen and the British Raj:”Solution: In a world order of sovereign states, weak national economies must seek redress through economic nationalism.”October 29, 2009http://www.henryckliu.com/page202.htmlHo hum
Chignos • October 28th, 2009 at 11:25 pm
PeteCA,What’s up with the Asians going off the dollar as their reserve currency January 1st? Is there a Bloomberg article on this?
Anonymous • October 28th, 2009 at 11:32 pm
sieg heil baby
Little Saver • October 29th, 2009 at 2:40 am
Trickle down cheating really does work.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a.Zdl6qgOdV4
The Alarmist • October 29th, 2009 at 3:12 am
Someone in Germany should not laugh, since a number of Germa banks are still holding huge chunks of the toxic MBS crap that their govt will have to prop up if things don’t improve. Very interesting!
The Alarmist • October 29th, 2009 at 3:19 am
No, you all miss the mark. They have been coddled for most of their lives in an environment of entitlement. Can it really be a surprise that so many would see it as a birthright to have a big house, a couple shiny cars, and a Grande Latte every day, and to do that with a $70k job?It starts with junior sports teams that no longer keep score because that is not fair, it continues with trophies to the losers, it ramps up with student loans that will bridge several decades (if they are ever at all repaid) to help everyone get the college education they need and deserve to get ahead, and it culinates with refundable tax credits, i.e. transfers of wealth from real taxpayers, so that they can buy the cars and houses they all have a right to own. Oh, yeah, and now they must all have access to cheap credit.Is it really any surprise?I really feel like a fool for having saved and delayed gratification on my major purchases. I should have maxed out the cards and borrowed to the hilt. Now these bastards are dragging me back in to pay for their mistakes.How’s that change and hope working out for you?
The Alarmist • October 29th, 2009 at 3:21 am
SDS
The Alarmist • October 29th, 2009 at 3:24 am
I was in the US a few weeks back and BestBuy was crowded. Either things are really getting better, or, as the Prof notes above, old habits simply die hard.S&P 750 by Q2 2010.
The Alarmist • October 29th, 2009 at 4:34 am
I told you recently these boys and girls who operate a bbg terminal deserve the big money, as it really is such hard, complicated and valuable work … From Dealbreaker …Bloomberg Will No Longer Provide Your Daily Ego BoostPosted by Bess Levin, Oct 28, 2009, 3:05pmHere’s some really awful news sure to shake you to the core. You know that function on your Bloomberg that let’s you see how many times your profile has been accessed? Of course you do, you check daily. Everyone does, even the big guys. It might not seem like that big a deal, and of course there are easier venues through which to stalk people, but be honest: you get off on knowing people are looking at you. Watching you. Seeing if you’ve been referenced in any business articles lately. But those days are over. Some of you probably noticed something awry a few days ago but didn’t want to jump to such a horrible conclusion. Fortunately, some banker chickadee, also reeling from the revelation, set out to get proof, and then passed it around to her comrades at work. On the bright side it appears that while the function has indeed been removed, Bloomberg has made its staff available to help you masturbate to your own existence while on the desk, in the event you need a helping hand. read the transcript of the online chat at Dealbreaker.com
blindman • October 29th, 2009 at 7:29 am
Why the Goldman Sachs-AIG Story Won’t Go Away: Jonathan Weil.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aLllpEiqrgpQCommentary by Jonathan WeilOct. 29 (Bloomberg) — How did so much taxpayer money end up in the coffers of American International Group Inc.’s too- big-to-fail customers? The more we find out, the more it becomes obvious we still don’t know the half of it.It’s the story that won’t go away: Was last year’s federal rescue of AIG a back-door bailout for the likes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Societe Generale SA, Deutsche Bank AG, Merrill Lynch & Co. and other large banks? And who exactly were the regulators trying to protect when they seized control of the insurance giant in September 2008? The banks? Or the rest of us?To believe AIG’s disclosures, you’d have thought its executives decided on their own last year to pay 100 cents on the dollar to the various banks that had bought $62 billion of credit-default swaps from the company. Now, thanks to an Oct. 27 story by Bloomberg News reporters Richard Teitelbaum and Hugh Son, we know otherwise.It turns out the decision to make the banks whole wasn’t AIG’s. It was made by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, back when its president was the current U.S. Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, and its chairman was Goldman Sachs director Stephen Friedman. (Friedman resigned from the New York Fed in May, after the Wall Street Journal reported he had bought more than 50,000 shares of Goldman stock following AIG’s takeover.)Before AIG was seized, its executives had been negotiating for months with the banks, trying to get them to accept discounts of as much as 40 cents on the dollar, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.Taking OverThen, late in the week of Nov. 3, the New York Fed took over the negotiations with the banks from AIG, together with the Treasury Department (at the time run by former Goldman boss Henry Paulson) and Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve Board. Less than a week later, the New York Fed instructed AIG to pay the counterparties in full, Bloomberg reported.Judging by the result, you might think Geithner’s team was on the banks’ side, rather than AIG’s.AIG wound up paying $32.5 billion to retire the swaps, $13 billion more than if it had paid, say, 60 cents on the dollar. The New York Fed also arranged to pay the banks $29.6 billion for collateralized-debt obligations backed by subprime mortgages and other loans, a tad less than half their face value. (The swaps were side bets by the banks that rose in value as the CDOs fell.)It probably made sense for the counterparties to reject AIG’s initial settlement offers. They had their own investors to look after. And once the government took control of AIG, it couldn’t credibly threaten to force the company into bankruptcy proceedings. The premise of the government’s seizure, after all, was that AIG was too big to fail.Rush to PayBut why the rush to pay the banks in full once Geithner’s team took over the talks? The public has never gotten satisfactory answers, notwithstanding that the government’s commitment to AIG now stands at about $182 billion.In a story published yesterday in response to Bloomberg’s scoop, the New York Fed’s general counsel, Thomas Baxter, told the Washington Post that officials were racing to prevent AIG’s collapse and didn’t have time for protracted negotiations with each creditor. That won’t put to rest suspicions that regulators used AIG as a slush fund to shield some of the banks from losses, using taxpayer money.Nor has anyone from AIG or the government explained why there was such a hurry to buy the CDOs. While the banks supposedly received market prices, that deal has since turned sour for taxpayers. The value of the securities, now held by a Fed-run entity called Maiden Lane III, was down by about $7 billion as of June 30, according to the New York Fed.The public might get some answers soon. Next month, the inspector general for the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, Neil Barofsky, is scheduled to release a report on whether AIG overpaid the banks, and the extent to which the counterparties’ own financial problems may have been at issue.Goldman Sachs UntouchedGoldman, for one, has long said it wouldn’t have incurred any material losses even if AIG had gone under.“We limited our overall credit exposure to AIG through a combination of collateral and market hedges,” Goldman’s chief financial officer, David Viniar, said in March. “There would have been no credit losses if AIG had failed.”Then again, Viniar is the same guy who this month made the ridiculous claim that Goldman doesn’t have a too-big-to-fail guarantee from the government. Goldman has refused to identify who the counterparties were on the other side of its hedges, rendering Viniar’s statement in March unverifiable.Even if Goldman was fully hedged, it’s reasonable to assume that not all the other banks were. We shouldn’t have to guess anymore, though. It’s long past time for the government to start telling us the whole truth about what happened at AIG.We’ve had too many secrets in this financial crisis already..comment on commentary: mutual assured systemic destruction, the financial architecture in the shadows. the engine of leverage and currency capture resulting in assured mutual destruction, from the bottom up, by design. manifest and articulated financial slavery but it only works because the empty threat is not confronted so institutional parasitism evolves and devours more of it’s surroundings, (with taxpayercommitments?) unconsciously. darkly..it is like a psychotic, mass murderer, holding a gun to his own head saying “if you don’t give me what i want i will shoot myself; and then won’t you be sorry”!.no? no.
Michelle • October 29th, 2009 at 8:06 am
@11b40:Thanks for the response, I had suspected you were short. I don’t follow opinions, I just look at the action and a few indicators and can get a general feel for a change in trend and so far this method has served me well.
Anonymous • October 29th, 2009 at 8:15 am
Well, a crisis definitely works as a tool to restore economic balances if it is allowed to work. In the Baltics, there were no other options and result: current account deficit in Estonia has gone from -15% of GDP to +5% in 12 months. Mainly through drop in imports, which have fallen much more than exports. Household net debt fell by 10%, average income fell by 15% and government budget was cut by 9%. Unemployement rose from 4% to 12% and keeps going.Quite painful, but not as bad as feared. Obviously, it is quite likely that the worst is still ahead. However, I don’t think public mood will get more negative – everybody understands that times are tough and there is need to adapt. Old survival ways from Soviet times and early 1990s were recalled quickly – two items, which sales have massively increased are rye flour (to make bread at home) and seed potatos. Otherwise it’s business as usual, one simply needs to find different (cheaper or free) things to enjoy.Baltics will definitely be in a much better shape by the time the next real up phase begins.
The Alarmist • October 29th, 2009 at 9:15 am
I’m actually reminded of the scene in Blazing Saddles, when Clevon Little holds the gun to his head and tells the townfolk that if they make a move he will get it.
PeteCA • October 29th, 2009 at 9:20 am
Oil is up today .. Thurs Oct 28′th. Apparently the oil market isn’t too shaken up by this news yet. Probably the Saudi’s are not implementing their decision in the immediate future.PeteCA
b • October 29th, 2009 at 9:22 am
a,i had the same recollection.
PeteCA • October 29th, 2009 at 9:23 am
I haven’t seen that report – do you have a copy? I doubt they would make a sudden move on one specific date … it’s more likely to be a gradual policy. But the evidence is accumulating that the BRIC countries are trying hard to develop alternatives.
MM CA • October 29th, 2009 at 9:38 am
and lest we not forget the total disaster out here in California, they are sticking it to the remaining 14 million workers out here starting next week. borrowing more by taxing them more… i knwo people who still have not gotten there 2008 Tax refunds out here… so good luck filing your taxes on time next april and expecting you refund money to come back to you… By then california will another 30 billion underwater…. i notifed my HR to increase my expemtions to 8 this morning, so in in fact I will now pay a lot less than i had been paying and i may just fedex my return and monies owed if any in pennies to them next year…California withholding tax increase November 1October 8, 1:17 PMSan Diego Headlines ExaminerJerrieCalifornia Governor Arnold SchwarzeneggerAB17 which was enacted by the California legislature and signed by Governor Schwarzenegger, requires the California Franchise Tax Board to adjust the payroll withholding table with an increase. The payroll withholding tables apply to pensions, as well as wages.AB 17 will increase payroll withholding by 10 percent, effective for wages paid after October 31, 2009. Withholding on supplemental wages increase from 6 percent to 6.6 percent effective for supplemental wages paid after October 31, 2009 and for stock options and bonus payments it will increase from 9.3 percent to 10.2 percent.To give you an idea what that will mean to you, as an example, if state income tax withholding is $500 a pay period on November 1, it will be adjusted to $550.00The law also increases the second quarterly estimated tax payment from 30 to 40 percent and the fourth quarterly installment from 20 to 30 percent.The AB 17 increases the payroll tax withholding and it does not increase California personal income tax rates.To help offset the extra money taht will be taken out of your paycheck, you can fill out a DE-4 form increasing your exemptions, for example from single 2 to single 3 and it will not change your federal exemptions, just your state exemptions. The form is available on the EDD website. If you would like to adjust your withholding click here to get the form.
MM CA • October 29th, 2009 at 9:38 am
Duh!!!!! New home building is a mirage these days… ther is no way the home builders can survive… From almost 2 million annual starts 2 years ago to this… and i wouldnt beleive these these numebrs either… you cant be building new homes when there are almsot 20 million unoccupied single family housing units…Same goes for the auto makers too… Chyrslar is toast and GM is not far behind… these idiots in Congress and wall street have destroyed this country… BTW everyone in america with a credit card will soon see there interest rate at 29.9% no matter your ccreidt rating…. and Bank fees are going through the roof… if people dont wake up, those with bad credit will see thier interest rates at over 50%… they are no wheres done sticking up Average Joes you know what…New Home Sales Fall Off The CliffJoe Weisenthal|Oct. 28, 2009, 10:10 AM | 252 |1Here’s your hangover and it’s worse than expected.Analysts had been expecting a GAIN of 2.6%. Instead new home sales slipped 3.6%. Stunning.The full announcement can be found here.http://www.businessinsider.com/new-home-sales-drop-36-percent-as-benefit-of-first-time-buyer-tax-credit-falls-off-apfn-2009-10
Guest • October 29th, 2009 at 9:41 am
Wall Street vs. Main Street: Courts Beginning to Side in Favor of Foreclosed Property OwnersBy George W. Mantor Print ArticleRISMEDIA, October 27, 2009—Agents involved in foreclosures and short sales may need to begin to disclose the possibility of serious property transfer defects associated with these types of lender controlled sales.If recent court decisions are any indication, we could be headed for an explosion of litigation in this area.And now, Massachusetts Courts have revealed the possibility that unlawful foreclosures, dating back to 1989, might be invalidated and that buyers of foreclosed properties and short sales may have clouded titles.The implications are enormous for title companies, bankruptcy attorneys, real estate agents, those facing foreclosure, and those who have lost their homes.The problem stems from the collision of two worlds. It illustrates what can happen when the new world fails to acknowledge or understand the old. It is change that takes place without the cooperation of all affected parties.Real property law has an ancient tradition. But, its laws and their purpose are not always apparent to those who want to change those traditions to benefit themselves.In the case of maintaining a public chain of title to real property, it was thought to be essential and generally required by the law.For hundreds of years, no one ever thought of any reason to change it. It was thought to be part of the public good.That is, until Wall Street saw the money making potential in credit derivatives.Credit derivatives are packages of debts such as car loans, student loans, credit card debts, and mortgage loans to name a few. These are collected, rated according to their risk, and sold to investors around the world.One small problem; if you are going to bundle mortgages from every county in the country, you would have to physically send someone to every county recorder’s office on multiple occasions and pay multiple recording fees. It was costly and cumbersome to those responsible for affecting the recordings.Their solution? Stop recording the assignments in public and track them instead in an electronic data base that the major lenders would operate through a cooperative entity. That entity is known as Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems (MERS). In my opinion, not only did it save them a fortune in county fees and manpower, it turned out to be a cash cow.Well, good for them, right? They figured out how to bring technology to the process and were handsomely rewarded. Never mind that the cost of maintaining a county recording system is paid, in part, by the recording revenue. They still have to maintain the apparatus, but now they aren’t receiving the revenue intended to maintain the system. Of course, this comes at a time when many counties are struggling to provide necessary services to their residents.But, as with many new ideas, there are unintended consequences that are now coming to light as state after state are enforcing basic property rights. Consider these cases:MassachusettsOn October 14, 2009, Judge Keith Long of the Massachusetts Land Court said in his ruling, “The issues in this case are not merely problems with paperwork or a matter of dotting i’s and crossing t’s. Instead they lie at the heart of the protections given to homeowners and borrowers by the Massachusetts legislature.”He was referring to the industry practice of trading notes endorsed in blank, in direct violation of securities law. Here is what he said on that point; “The blank mortgage assignments they possessed transferred nothing…in Massachusetts, a mortgage is a conveyance of land. Nothing is conveyed unless and until it is validly conveyed. The various agreements between the securitization entities stating that each had a right to an assignment of the mortgage are not themselves an assignment and they are certainly not in recordable form.”Two years earlier, Judge Rosenthal in re Schwartz, found that there was no evidence that the note itself was assigned and no evidence as to who the current holder might be.KansasOn August 28, 2009, Judge Eric S. Rosen of the Kansas Supreme Court likened MERS to a “straw man” and not a party of interest with the right to foreclose.“Indeed, in the event that a mortgage loan somehow separates interests of the note and the deed of trust, with the deed of trust lying with some independent entity, the mortgage may become unenforceable. The practical effect of splitting the deed of trust from the promissory note is to make it impossible for the holder of the note to foreclose, unless the holder of the deed of trust is the agent of the holder of the note. Without the agency relationship, the person holding only the note lacks the power to foreclose in the event of a default. The person holding only the deed of trust will never experience a default because only the holder of the note is entitled to payment of the underlying obligation. The mortgage loan becomes ineffectual when the note holder did not hold the deed of trust.”CaliforniaOn October 21, 2008, Judge Samuel L. Bufford noted in his ruling that California codified the principal in 1872 in Carpenter v. Longan: “Given that ‘the debt is the principal thing and the mortgage an accessory,’ the Supreme Court reasoned that as a corollary, ‘the mortgage can have no separate existence. An assignment of the note carries the mortgage with it, while an assignment of the latter alone is a nullity.”NevadaOn August 19th, 2008, Judge Linda B. Riegle concluded, “There is no evidence that the named nominee is entitled to enforce the note or that MERS is the agent of the note’s holder. Indeed, the evidence is to the contrary, the note has been sold, and the named nominee no longer has any interest in the note.”ArkansasOn March 19, 2009 the Supreme Court of Arkansas found that MERS was not the beneficiary under the deed of trust, although so designated in the deed of trust, because it did not receive the payments on the underlying debt.OhioOn October 31, 2007, U.S. District Judge Christopher Boyko dismissed 14 foreclosure actions and delivered a strong admonishment in a footnote:“Plaintiff’s ‘Judge, you just don’t understand how things work,’ argument reveals a condescending mindset and quasi-monopolistic system where financial institutions have traditionally controlled, and still control, the foreclosure process…There is no doubt that every decision made by a financial institution in the foreclosure is driven by money.”When you consider the origin of this problem, it is hard to disagree. If the foreclosing entity didn’t loan the money, the original note was sold, the location of the note is unknown, and it isn’t even clear what would happen to the proceeds of the eventual sale of the property to a new owner.Until recently, MERS had succeeded in most foreclosure actions. In non judicial foreclosure states like California, there is no judicial review of the elements of a foreclosure. Unless the borrower files for bankruptcy or brings a law suit against MERS alleging RESPA or TILA violations, there is no opportunity for the borrower to challenge the foreclosure.In judicial foreclosure states, there is a law suit brought by the party entitled to payment on the defaulted loan. Not the trust, but the actual possessor in due course of the original note. It’s part judicial procedure, part uniform commercial code and part ancient property law.But, the securitization business is so complicated, intentionally so, that defendants, most of their legal representation, and the judges rarely considered the consequences to the real parties in interest. This will continue until enough people understand the importance of the actual note and its relationship to the property.I believe many homes have been unlawfully foreclosed by entities not entitled to anything. The former owners of these homes have rights that will need to be addressed.People who applied for mortgage modifications and received them may have gotten approval from an unwitting bank employee with no authority to change the underlying terms of the securities in the pools.Many people bought these homes and have potential future claims. If there is a cloud on title, the new owner is at risk of being unable to sell or encumber the property. If the foreclosure were unlawful, the borrower is entitled to their property. And, there is a very real possibility that the true holder of the actual note, once and if ever this mess is sorted out, could come forward with the actual note.It isn’t important to only those in foreclosure. Those seeking loan modifications, potential buyers of short sales and foreclosures and those acting in a fiduciary capacity on their behalf, may soon be demanding, “Show me the note.”
Guest • October 29th, 2009 at 9:43 am
High Foreclosure Rates Spread into New Metro AreasPublished: Wednesday, 28 Oct 2009 | 1:23 AM ET Text Size By: Joseph PisaniCNBC News AssociateIt comes as no surprise that metro areas like Las Vegas, Nev. and Fort Myers, Fla. had the highest foreclosure rates in the country—they’ve been high for some time.But high foreclosure rates are now moving into metro areas that previously avoided the problem, according to a new report from RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure marketplace.“Rising unemployment and a new variety of mortgage resets continued to gradually shift the nation’s foreclosure epicenters in the third quarter away from the hot spots of the last two years and toward some metro areas that had avoided the brunt of the first foreclosure wave,” said James J. Saccacio the chief executive officer of RealtyTrac in a statement.Among those new hot spots were Boise City-Nampa, Idaho which saw a 142 percent increase in foreclosures in the third quarter compared with the same period a year ago. Other new foreclosure hot spots include Provo-Orem (120 percent increase) and Salt Lake City (105 percent increase) metro areas, both of which are in Utah.And in California, the Chico metro area saw a 98 percent increase in its foreclosure rate during the third quarter, the largest year-over-year increase in the state.Leading the nation was the Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. metro area, where one in every 20 households received a foreclosure notice in the third quarter. Foreclosure notices are defined as a default notice, bank repossession or auction sale notice.Following Las Vegas-Paradise in the top five were Merced, Calif., Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., Stockton, Calif., and Modesto, Calif.The metro area with the lowest foreclosure rate in the country was Utica-Rome, N.Y., where one in every 5,441 households received a foreclosure notice.To see which states ranked in the top ten, click here.
Guest • October 29th, 2009 at 9:44 am
New-Home Sales in Surprise DeclineSales fell 3.6% in September, putting new attention on calls to extend a tax-credit stimulusBy Phil MintzBW ExclusivesU.S. Economy Grows in Third QuarterCan Main Street Catch Wall Street?Housing Recovery: A Solid FoundationVerizon: Who Needs the iPhone?Verizon’s Motorola Phone Boosts AndroidStory Toolspost a commente-mail this storyprint this storyorder a reprintsuggest a storydigg thissave to del.icio.usThe Oct. 28 report by the government that the rate of new-home sales posted a surprising 3.6% drop in September from August is likely to give a boost to advocates of extending a federal first-time home-buyer tax credit that is due to expire at the end of November.The Commerce Dept. reported that sales of new one-family houses in September were at the seasonally adjusted rate of 402,000, down 3.6% from a revised August rate of 417,000. The sales rate is 7.8% below the previous-year number. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a pace of 440,000.It was the first sales drop since March.The median sales price of $204,800 was off 9.1% from $225,200 the year before, but up 2.5% from August’s level of $199,900.Extending the Tax CreditPaul Dales, U.S. economist with Capital Economics in Toronto, said in a report that the sales numbers could be the first sign that the pending expiration of the $8,000 first-time home-buyer tax credit was affecting the market. “The new-homes sales data are collected at an earlier stage of the home-buying process than the existing sales data (contract signing rather than closing), so we would expect that data to pick up any fall-off in sales first,” Dales wrote.The credit, which is limited to buyers who have not owned a home for the past three years, is due to expire Nov. 30. But several bills to extend the credit have been introduced, including one co-sponsored by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) and Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) that would extend the credit to June 30, 2010, and expand it to include buyers who previously owned homes.About 1.4 million borrowers have claimed a total of about $10 billion in credits through the program, which was approved in February. A Treasury Dept. inspector general recently testified to a congressional committee that many of the claims for the credit have turned out to be fraudulent or filed by ineligible purchasers.Critics of the plan say that many of the home sales in which the tax credit was claimed would have occurred anyway. The Calculated Risk blog recently estimated that of the 2 million sales in which the tax credit would be claimed, only 350,000 would be incremental buyers—costing taxpayers $43,000 a sale.
b • October 29th, 2009 at 9:49 am
a,wall st./ meets blazing saddles/ meetsdr. strangelove.
MM CA • October 29th, 2009 at 10:06 am
GDP increase is nothing more than Stimulus related. Just like China’s “increased” GDP. Cut off the stimulus and bailouts and we will go back to neg 6-8% annual decline. Jobs down, Wages down, Tax revenues down, Housing down, all equals declining GDP. 70% of GDP is consumer driven. Plus any number they put out these days cannot be trusted.GDP Is….. Better Than Expected? No Way!October 29. 2009Posted by Karl Denninger in Macro Economics at 08:59GDP Is….. Better Than Expected?Oh what a tangled web we weave….Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent.Looks good, right?Hmmmm…. or is it?Motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change…..Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 7.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 11.4 percent in the second.Ok, from this we can compute a few things.3.5 – 1.66 – (7.9 * 30%) = -0.53%Now let’s adjust for inventories:The change in real private inventories added 0.94 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 1.42 percentage points from the second-quarter change.-0.53% – 0.94% = -1.47%.Ok, that’s bad but not catastrophic and is an actual improvement compared to the second quarter. But….Current-dollar personal income decreased $15.5 billion (0.5 percent) in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $19.1 billion (0.6 percent) in the second.Personal current taxes increased $4.8 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $119.1 billion in the second.Eeeeehhh… those are both going the wrong way. Taxes up, income down. And…Disposable personal income decreased $20.4 billion (0.7 percent) in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $138.2 billion (5.2 percent) in the second. Real disposable personal income decreased 3.4 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.8 percent.That’s worse. A lot worse. Disposable personal income decreased in nominal terms q/o/q by 5.9% while in real terms (inflation adjusted) it decreased q/o/q by 7.4%! That is an enormous swing in purchasing power and not in the right direction!Personal outlays increased $148.2 billion (5.8 percent) in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $8.2 billion (0.3 percent) in the second. Personal saving — disposable personal income less personal outlays — was $364.6 billion in the third quarter, compared with $533.1 billion in the second.The personal saving rate — saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 3.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with 4.9 percent in the second.So into decreasing personal income and disposable personal income people tried to spend anyway. Best guess: most of this was “cash for clunkers”, which is the worst sort of “spending” – it is the taking on of more debt by replacing a paid-off car with one that now comes with a shiny (and nasty) payment book. The Trade: Go long auto repo outfits (aside: as far as I know there are no publicly-traded repo companies.)Nothing in here I like; to the contrary, this report sucks and on a drill-down appears to be full of outright lies.Looking inside the data, the “big change” in private domestic investment is all residential fixed – up 23.4%. I don’t believe it. I’ve been scouring the homebuilder earnings releases and data, and I don’t see the numbers that support this. An improvement over the ditch-diving of the last many quarters, yes – but a 23.4% increase, a swing of fifty percent from Q2-Q3? Oh hell no. Where is it? It’s not in Home Depot’s or Lowe’s quarterly results, it’s not in the homebuilders, and I can’t find it in the suppliers (lumber companies, etc) either. This sort of move would result in monstrous top-line revenue increases reported by firms in this sector and that simply has not happened.Nor do the export and import numbers look right. Port of Long Beach and LA anyone? Those numbers also don’t add up – swings of 20-25% in one quarter? Not reflected in container volumes and freight loadings. Yet it has to be – how do you get something in or out of here without it going through a port?Government looks right, both federal and state/local. The “Obama will cut defense and war spending” folks have to be bashing themselves with a hammer – there’s no evidence for that in the data, now three quarters into his administration. If you’re anti-war and “bring the troops home”, you may want to re-think whether voting for Barry was a wise decision – he sure as hell hasn’t kept that promise. (Note that I didn’t think he would either but that lie sure played well in San Francisco, didn’t it?)Forward the big problem is the deterioration in personal income. You can’t spend what you don’t have without credit creation, and that’s fallen off a cliff. The Fed’s credit reports continue to come in with huge contractions – this should not surprise, as demanding that banks lend to people who are seeing their income shrink is into the realm of pure idiocy.The market likes the numbers although a lot of the move – perhaps all of it – is Bucky getting thrown under the bus once again.You can’t expect the cheerleaders on CNBC to read beyond the headline numbers, and they (once again) did not disappoint in this regard. The first 20 minutes of “analysis” brought not one mention of the decease in personal income or disposable personal income, yet on a forward basis this is in fact the most important piece of information in the report.You cannot have an economic recovery when on a q/o/q basis real disposable income is contracting at a 7.4% annual rate and worse, the spread between nominal and real income is widening, indicating that mandatory purchases such a food, energy and health care – are increasing.
MM CA • October 29th, 2009 at 10:10 am
NO JOBS TRAIN has left the station and speeding along full bore…. NO JOBS = NO RECOVERY! INSOLVNET BANKS = NO RECOVERY! INCREASING FORECLOSURES and DECLINING HOME VALUES = NO RECOVERY!Can they all just do Average Joe American a Favor and tell us the Truth?Worse Than Expected Jobless Claims Point Toward Jobless RecoveryJohn Carney|Oct. 29, 2009, 9:38 AM | 446 |8Economists may have gotten ahead of the recovery, predicting a steeper drop in jobless claims than the economy could deliver.Lots of people have been saying that businesses cut too many jobs in expectations that the economic conditions would deteriorate even further than they have. This would mean that they would have to start hiring again, soon. If that is true, businesses still haven’t gotten the memo.From the AP:The number of people claiming jobless benefits for the first time dropped less than expected last week, evidence that the labor market remains weak even as the economy is recovering.The Labor Department said Thursday its tally of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment insurance fell by 1,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 530,000. Analysts expected a steeper drop to 521,000, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.The report comes the same day the Commerce Department said the economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the July-September quarter, snapping a streak of four straight quarters of decline. But the economy isn’t growing quickly enough to spur much hiring.Still, the four-week average of claims, which smoothes out volatility, fell for the eighth straight week to 526,250, its lowest level since early January. Claims are slowly declining as companies lay off fewer workers.Economists closely watch initial claims, which are considered a gauge of layoffs and an indication of companies’ willingness to hire new workers.The number of people continuing to claim benefits, meanwhile, dropped sharply by 148,000 to 5.8 million, a steeper drop than analysts expected. The figures on continuing claims lag initial claims by a week.When federal emergency programs are included, the total number of jobless benefit recipients dropped by about 105,000 to 8.9 million in the week ending Oct. 10, the latest data available.Congress has added up to 53 extra weeks of benefits on top of the 26 typically provided by the states. The Senate is considering legislation that would add another 14 to 20 weeks.The large number of people remaining on the rolls shows unemployed workers are having a hard time finding new jobs.The unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent in September from 9.7 percent, the department said earlier this month, as employers cut 263,000 jobs.More job cuts were announced this week. Apparel maker Hanesbrands Inc. said Tuesday that it is shutting a hosiery plant in Winston-Salem, N.C., and laying off 240 employees.Among the states, California had the largest increase in claims, with 5,774, which it attributed to layoffs in the construction, services and agricultural industries. Puerto Rico, Minnesota, Nevada and Nebraska also reported increases. The state data lags initial claims by one week.Wisconsin had the largest drop in claims, with 5,681, which it attributed to fewer layoffs in manufacturing. New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Oregon had the next largest decreases.
Guest • October 29th, 2009 at 10:36 am
You Cheat, I Cheat, as Wall Street Acts as Model: Susan Antilla
Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) — Trickle down really does work. Consider these inspired words, from an online reader of USA Today, reacting last week to news that Americans were lying, cheating and law-breaking to get their hands on an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers:“The system is scamming you, so why not scam back a little,” wrote the reader, using the name “None in 08.” “You’ve seen what crooks in Washington and on Wall Street can get away with.” So “it’s time to get yours.”Amen, brother. What are role models for, anyway?People who make their livings studying the business world’s ethics — and lack thereof — say it doesn’t take a nutburger to sense there’s some systemic unfairness at work.“The heavy hitters, the high-rollers and the powerful have been getting away with this type of thing, so people say, ‘Why shouldn’t I get my few cents?’” says Thomas Bausch, a professor of management who teaches business ethics at Marquette University in Milwaukee.
Guest • October 29th, 2009 at 10:39 am
Well, they did it for the Pentagon, er a, “War on Terror”…
Guest • October 29th, 2009 at 10:40 am
Pete, people have been bullish over the FREE MONEY that their puppets have been extracting for them!
Guest • October 29th, 2009 at 10:58 am
a pound of your finest sour grapes please sir
Guest • October 29th, 2009 at 10:59 am
stop being a CRY BABY.
Guest • October 29th, 2009 at 10:59 am
GDP 3.5, Recession ended.
FEDup • October 29th, 2009 at 11:18 am
Jobless claims could drop a 1000/month for the next 10 years (1000x12x10) and we would still have 400k claim monthly (520-120) or nearly 5 million/yr! Does that sound like a recovery? How much longer will Treasury continue stimulus printing to delay the inevitable?!Let’s all buy new cars=more debtLet’s all buy new homes=more debtLet’s all charge more on the credit cards=more debt. Until the hard-headed, addicted consumer faces reality, we are just digging ourselves a deeper hole from which very few will be able to ever escape!
economicminor • October 29th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
The two carts in this piece tell quite a story.It’s The Worst-Ever Credit Crunch On Main StreetBanks aren’t lending. Who would in this environment? They aren’t any dumber than I am.We have a lot more debt to devalue/write down before we have parity of income to debt.Lend it today to take it back as a loss tomorrow? Not happening!This will take longer than it should because governments on all levels are raising fees, taxes, fines and other revenue enhancers to stay solvent.This takes disposable income away from people and businesses who are still marginally solvent.Less income means closer to insolvency until they go over into default and some on into bankruptcy. This has been a continuing saga that so far hasn’t shown any signs of letting up. Maybe slowing down a little with the subsidies and spending but certainly not stopping. And the banks are insane raising the interest rates on credit cards as this forces more people/businesses into insolvency. Are they so disconnected to reality or do they really want to kill the American economy? Or do the believe it is already dying and they are going to pull out as much as they can before it goes down for the final count?The second chart in this piece is interesting because it shows the insanity of some of the federal deficits.Where is the funding for the T-Bills coming from… Those who the fed is lending the money to.So the fed borrows at 1% and lends it to the banks at .05% who lend it back to the fed at 1%. A circle in which the American public is getting the short end of the stick.In the mean time, there is a lot of the money and profits being used by these same institutions to game the stock market.What a circus!Those in power actually believe that they can manhandle the credit system. They have been trained and educated to believe that. This is what they know and believe.These graphs show that they haven’t been able to and IMHO can’t.It worked while there was excess solvency. When on average, people/businesses made more than they spent.But this has been declining for years as has the savings rate… And who is it that saves? Who is saving today? The same institutions whom the fed is lending to?Things are different this time and that is because we have a collapsing pyramid of debts that just can’t be repaid.We have exceeded Zero Hour.Debts that grew because almost everyone was benefiting from them.Now we have the opposite scenario, Debt Revulsion certainly by the public but it appears to be by the lending institutions too.Why bother to lend when they can make so much more by gaming stocks. And when they mess up big time, there is always the Treasury and the TaxPayers to bail them out.
economicminor • October 29th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
The Professor writes “The I.M.F. needs teeth, perhaps along the lines of the W.T.O.’s authority to prod member states toward “out of court” settlements, in order to enforce these difficult political and economic goals.”That was covered in that video I posted yesterday The Fall of the RepublicI am not a conspiracy guy. I just think this is the nature of humans when to much wealth and power are concentrated in the hands of to few. I see bad times ahead but I believe that the ideals of America that Jefferson and Madison and Paine and the other heroes in our historical beginnings will not go away so easy. Americans may have lost their way but I believe that struggle is part of maintaining a democratic republic and as Minsky said stability leads to instability which in turn resolves itself in stability again. A circle that can not be broken. The wealth in the hands of the few will be redistributed by default and the pieces will be picked up by the prudent and the whole cycle will start over again.The bigger the cycle the longer the period of readjustment.The last time America was in a mess like this, which wasn’t as big a mess IMO, was during the Great Depression. Aptly named because after a long period of false prosperity and gambling, we were depressed. We learned and the world was a better place until we that generation passed on and the new generations had no personal knowledge of that kind of disaster. So we will get to do the depression thing again. And in the future, it will happen again.
Guest • October 29th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
New thread
Guest • October 29th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
Regan Lin • November 4th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
To start, why is the world blaming China for the US current account deficit when less than 20% of Chinese export goes to the US.In the current monetary system, some countries run CA deficit and some run CA surplus. They sum to zero which mean all savings need to go into investment. And with today’s globalization and flourishing financial intermediation, capital is flowing easily across border seeking for higher returns. (at least for the private investors) For the governments around the world which are accumulating reserve to intervene in the forex market, they are recycling dollar to pursue domestic goal and are not driven by profit. So what does this mean, it is the demand more capital that seeks out saving and not vice versa. So a country running current account deficit, because it is spending or investing beyond the current means. If one day, the US stops running current account deficit and starts running CA positive, there will be other areas in the world that are in hungry for capital. But the most likely scenario is the world deficit and surplus will shrink.Under the Bretton Wood II regime, US needs to run deficit to send the dollar abroad to increase world liquidity. No other countries can trade with other countries without the clearing with dollar. Therefore, the US will necessarily run deficit to grease the world market. The only solution will for the world community to come up with a multipolar monetary system which is not predominately based on dollar.
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