first

I’m loving my call on “invest in Brazil” from earlier this year.All the best,Miss America

Reposted from last thread:The PLAN is working-for now anyway! Just keep devaluing the dollar so the foreigners keep buying our debt!!! Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) — Investors can’t get enough Treasuries even as the U.S. budget deficit climbs beyond $1 trillion, the government sells a record amount of debt and the dollar declines to the weakest level since August 2008.Foreign buyers increased their holdings for a fourth consecutive month in August, to an all-time high of $3.45 trillion, according to Treasury Department data released Oct. 16. U.S. demand is being spurred by a rising savings rate and concern the economic recovery may falter. Fixed-income funds have attracted 18 times more money than stock funds this year, according to data compiled by Morningstar Inc. and Bloomberg.Bond investors see no reason to abandon Treasuries with the Federal Reserve likely to keep interest rates on hold until at least the second half of 2010. The 15 percent drop in Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s U.S. Dollar Index from its high this year on March 4 means international investors can buy U.S. debt more cheaply without worrying that speculation about interest rates will boost volatility and erode returns.“The same yield is more attractive” to foreigners because of the weaker greenback, said Todd White, who oversees government debt trading in Minneapolis at RiverSource Investments, which manages $90 billion of bonds……Hide reply Reply to this comment By FEDup on 2009-10-19 09:43:12Doesn’t make anysense at all. I’m wondering if the data are being fudged, or foreign central banks are participating in a deliberate scheme to prop up US debt. See earlier comments about possible devaluation of US dollar down to level of 50 Japanese yen. Who in their right mind would hold any US assets during that kind of currency devaluation – let alone assets that provided minimal yields such as UST’s ??MORAL for the FED:You can jive some of the markets all of the timeAnd you can jive all of the markets some of the timeBUT … you can’t jive the entire global financial system all of the timePeteCAReply to this comment By PeteCA on 2009-10-19 09:55:28

i wont touch dolloar or USA debt. those who does are either scheming something or just stupid.

Isn’t most of the above about BICI’s (Brazil, India, China and Indonesia) future growth potential based upon a recovering USA? Is there still doubt or discussion on linkage?I know the Marie Antionettes see a recovery because Government Sacks and the other TBTF gambler/speculators had a good quarter and ran the stock market up but an economy is about productivity and the US was about prosperity for all… Because when we all had a piece of the pie, we all not only worked harder but spent that piece and the whole thing grew larger and larger. Some how TPTB have overlooked one big fact, the American Consumer is broke and his income is falling. What income isn’t falling is under attack by the TBTF banks with their outrageous fees, penalties and interest charges. Add that to fees and taxes raising all over the country and real inflation as documented by the BLS has been waaaaay above the CPI for years which also attacks real earnings.The US has been taken over by the Banksters who have nothing in their hearts but greed. All the Kings Horses and All the Kings Men can’t make this sick PIG healthy again and all attempts at steroids may have short term affects but in the bigger picture, they are going to kill the once strong and robust athlete.Then what will they all have except a bunch of worthless dollars and a lot of angry citizens. I keep hoping they will grow up and learn to share but it appears that the only way they will learn is the hard way. All I know is that this isn’t going to end good!

Welcome to the club of Russia-bashers, Dr. Roubini!

Here’s a really a well-written piece by Matt Taibbi at Rolling Stone. Thanks to 321gold.com for getting onto this article. It is well worth taking the time to read the entire piece.Matt Taibibi Exposing Huge Corruption on Wall St and In US GovernmentUp until now the citizens of America have been SHORT on public outrage. But I have a feeling that when these folks finally go LONG, it’s going to get super-ugly out there.PeteCA

Wow, stock and Treasury divergence and USD DIE trade.

From The History of the Future Trends 2012 – CelenteProducing nothing while enriching themselves with grotesque bonuses, they engineered the loss of $40 trillion of global wealth. Rather than being portrayed as a group of fast talking money grubbers, they were fawned over and flattered.The names — Summers, Dimon, Thain, Weill, Blankfein, Rubin, Mack — were among those rarely spoken without an appropriate introductory honorific:“brilliant,” occasionally “brilliant-brilliant,” sometimes “financial genius” and all credited with “storied careers.” Storied careers … lifetimes of deal making, inside trades, market manipulation, influencepeddling and sucking their way up to the top. They were the role models MBAs were enjoined to emulate.The rationale for their fat bonuses and princelycompensation, despite proven roles in engineeringthe worst financial crisis since the Great Depression,was best summarized by Edward Liddy, the former Goldman Sachs board member overseeingthe newly government controlled insurance giant A.I.G. “We cannot attract and retain the best and the brightest talent to lead and staff the A.I.G. businesses … if employees believe their compensationis subject to continued and arbitrary adjustmentby the U.S. Treasury.”In non-White Shoe language “the best and the brightest talent” meant the slickest, greediest and most unprincipled with the state of the art skills requiredto destroy capital, bring down their firm and ravage the lives of all those that had invested in or depended upon A.I.G.JIVE TALKRather than call a spade a spade or a crime a crime, the complicit business and mainstream media winked and euphemized the activity under the rubricof “esoteric financial products” and “debt instruments.”But they were neither “products” nor “instruments” — language that conferred upon them a spurious physical validity. They were white-collar schemes; financial phantasms conjured up out of mathematical formulae by organized crime families and their Ivy League whiz kids.With the crime bosses calling the shots and in control of Washington, they did as they pleased.There was a steady stream of crime reports. For example, in 2008 the government took $165 billion in taxpayer money and doled it out to nine of the largest banks that had lost $81 billion in reckless business practices.Celebrating those staggering losses, the bank bandits rewarded themselves by skimming off some $33 billion for bonuses and executive compensation.“Nothing we did was for them [the banks],” said US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.Of course not! What diseased mind would think that the hundreds of billions given to the banks was done to help the banks? It was all done for the good of the American people.Crime fact was far more lurid than crime fiction.The stories came and the stories went

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-edge-lower-after-last-weeks-gains-2009-10-19NO INFLATION SO SCREAMED BY TREASURY BOND MARKET!! NO INFLATION!!! LOLno inflation and commodity price keeps going up??

g,i’ve tried to download that pdf but errors occurrepeatedly. ?thanks for the tidbit.

Oh, BTW and me too (Two?):Where’s The Outrage?I don’t know about you, but I am outraged.I am outraged and not just about Goldman Sachs, but about a process that allows, even encourages political pandering, by time and time again rewarding leveraged riverboat gamblers and failed institutions and at taxpayer expense.I am outraged that real people are suffering massively while the influence peddlers have stolen the country for their own personal benefit.I am outraged at a political system that is totally unresponsive to the American people.I am outraged by campaign contribution and lobbying processes that allows corporations to buy votes with donations.I am outraged how legislators ignored the wishes of the people who clearly did not want these bailouts in the first place.I am outraged that very little of this is in mainstream media. Why is this stuff not on the frontpage of every newspaper in the country or at least in the editorial pages?I am outraged that the average US citizen is not aware of any of this, instead depending on CNBC, or “The View” for their interpretation of the world.I am outraged how special interest groups have exercised their power to monopolize the economy for the benefit of themselves, US citizens be damned.I am outraged that all these bailout programs are doing nothing to alleviate the massive consumer debt problems. Every program, virtually every program was designed to bailout lending institutions, not consumers.I am outraged at fees charged by banks receiving bailouts.I am outraged over government pension plans and government pay scales massively out of line with the private sector.I am outraged that Congress and this administration thinks the solution to massive budget deficits are still higher budget deficits in excess of a trillion dollars.I am outraged about indictments. Paulson Admitted Coercion to force a shotgun wedding between Bank of America and Merrill Lynch yet no indictments were handed out. Let the Criminal Indictments Begin: Paulson, Bernanke, Lewis.I am outraged that US citizens are not concerned enough and not educated enough to demand change.I am outraged that the two party system has failed. Neither party has delivered meaningful change on budgets, on taxes, on social security, on deficit spending, on the size of government, on military spending, or fighting needless wars.I am outraged at a Fed that purports to be “inflation fighters” when the only source of inflation in the word are central bankers, and their fractional reserve lending policies.I am outraged that Greenspan and Bernanke could not see a housing bubble that 1000 bloggers could see.I am outraged at the selective memory of Bernanke when speaking to Congress about these problems.I am outraged that Bernanke’s one sided response to asset bubbles, letting them grow without end, then bailing out the financial institutions that cause them.I am outraged the Fed exists at all. It is a useless organization that cannot see bubbles, that panders to banks, that supports inflationary policies that are tantamount to theft by fraud.I am outraged that the Obama Administration promised changed and did not deliver. “Yes We Can” was a lie. The reality is “It’s Business As Usual, Only Worse, With Higher Deficits”.I am outraged there is not enough outrage over this.Where the hell is the outrage?Mike “Mish” Shedlockhttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.comHo hum

I know Russia through its 19th century literature–not just (please pardon my spellings) Tolstoy and Dostoevsky, but also Puskin (often known as the father of Russian literature),Gogol, Chekhov, Lermentov, Turgenev, Goncharov, and many more. Unfortunately, they have no Chaucer, no Shakespeare, no King James bible, but they have a magnificent literary tradition that came out of nowhere, and that reflects the hardy, ingenious, and long suffering nature of the Russian people. So if I were to predict who would be the successor of the fallen American empire, I would not choose China; I would choose Russia. Their time will come, and I think that that time is near.

c,thanks for the offer!

g,i have thought that, yes, n.r. slips someside commentary in like that. people usedto commonly communicate through third parties likethat, back in the day. i think it is a veryclever way for people to communicate myself.there are more advantages than disadvantagesif it is done well. my wife and i used topractice the art with the kids. back in the day.i think my uncles used it on me more than once.matter of fact most politics is conducted like thisas politician X says blah blah blah to constituencyY so that corporation lobbyist Z will contributemoney for politician X to then knife his constituency.yes, that is the definition of applied politics.

One person’s shell operation or fraud is another person’s stabilisation.

Don’t forget Mr. Charles Rangle, chairman of the House Ways & Means Committe (The people who drive tax policy), who seems to have a difficult time remembering to report rental income from his condo in the Dominican Republic or from the 4 rent stabilised apartments he rents out in NYC.If you or I tried that, we’d be prosecuted. Question for SWK … can we use the equal protection clause as a defense if they were to come after us for cheating on our taxes?

Yes It Can

First line: use “contributing” instead of “contribution”

Scary if he’s accurate!

China will be around long after everyone else is gone/

Not sure if this was posted recently or not, but it’s another brilliant article by Matt Taibbi:=Wall Street’s Naked SwindleToo many quotables!

A Prayer for the PeopleThe banksters are in full controlThey own the congress sluts,Each slimy representative,A bar code on their butts.They own the military might,And military stores,And seeking treasure off they go,To scour foreign shores.Their wind-up doll says:” Yes, we can!”And grins from ear to ear,And ‘though he hasn’t done a thing,He surely sounds sincere.Each program that he’s started,Has one just one goal in mind,A new and novel way, it seems,To rob the country blind.To guide us through these dark times,Is after all his onus,But every time he leads us on,Ten banksters get a bonus!And tired of the game that’s rigged,The people who are smarter,Start new games of their own,Where people trade and barter.They grow food free of poisons,And offer it for trade.To buy it give some fire wood,Or clothing that you’ve made.The model’s worth is tried and true,And you will be the winner,You’ll keep the wealth and gain good health,While banksters will get thinner.And so we’ll grant to Ceasar,Less and less he’ll take,And get to keep that which we reap,Good bread while he eats cake.

Hmm… link failed! Won’t try and hotlink it, so here it is in its raw form:http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/30481512/wall_streets_naked_swindle

I’m up a good 6% just in switching out of the USD! (other moves much better) And these have been of a fairly long duration (not spending half my life managing and worrying about “investments”)

http://www.lewrockwell.com/celente/Future-Trends-2012-Celente.pdf“It was like a pulp fiction crime novel with a plot at once transcendentally cliched, corny and transparent … and yet it was the perfect crime. The White Shoe Boys of the Wall Street Mob had taken over Washington. It was The Great Bank Robbery. Except it wasn’t the bank that was being robbed. It was the banks doing the robbing.Politicians, bought off by the mob, did as they were told. By government edict, the wealth of the nation was extorted from those who had the least and bestowed upon those who had the most and wanted more.Thousand page bills were rushed into print and rammed through Congress before lawmakers had a chance to read them. Bailouts, buyouts, rescue plans, stimulus packages, cap and trade … by whatever name, it was the greatest heist in American history. Committed in broad daylight and with everyone watching, almost no one saw it for what it was: “crime.” But Washington called it “legislation.”By order of the President and Congress it was decreed that all living Americans, and their descendants for generations, would be responsible for the bad bets made by banks, businesses and financial institutions deemed “too big to fail.”..

wild bill,that is great but..i think you need a chorus.maybe ” whiskey and pitchforkswill work the land again.”?first thought.

Sure! Why not?And new banks for the peopleWill spring up filled with verve,Truly Banco Populars no Federal Reserve.Just honest dealings true and fair,No fees for this and that,A service rendered with great care,No banksters to get fat.

Ilargi: Dylan Ratigan has a few stats that you may find useful:Goldman Sachs’ Black Magic, Here’s How They Did ItHere is the Goldman, Sachs & Co. revenue break down for the past 3 months:Financial Advisory-M/A: $325 million.Equity Underwriting: $363 million.Debt Underwriting: $211 million.Trading-Principal Investments: $10 billion.Notice that 10 billion is much bigger than two or three hundred million made from the traditional Wall Street businesses.That $10 billion is evidence of their magic trick. For we the taxpayer gave Goldman Sachs the following:$10 Billion in TARP$11 Billion from the Fed$30 Billion from the FDIC$13 Billion from AIGFor a grand total of almost $70 Billion (Goldman along with every other bank and AIG would have been defunct without this money).Goldman at the apex of the crisis is delivered this money — which they then use to borrow against at $20 or $30 for every $1. Which at 30x equals $2.1 trillion in available capital. As one of the only banks in the world with money at the time, Goldman Sachs was able to buy billions in distressed assets around the world at record low prices — only to watch $23.7 trillion in US taxpayer money be deployed during the past year to re-inflate the asset’s values that Goldman had purchased with our tax money.Bill Bonner addresses the same topic from a slightly different angle:A Retirement SocietyYesterday, Goldman announced its quarterly earnings. Goldman, you’ll recall, is the firm that former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (a former Goldman chairman) called 13 times before breakfast during the financial crisis of last September. And Goldman is also the firm with its men in key posts in Washington, helping the feds figure out what to do with trillions of dollars in bailout funds (TARP, TALF, Fed’s buying toxic assets, etc.)Well, what a coincidence…now the firm says its latest profit is four times what it was a year ago. The firm’s “activities have become more profitable after the crisis reduced competition and governments injected funds in the banking system,” says The Financial Times.Goldman can borrow the funds at almost no cost. Then, it can use the money in a variety of ways…such as lending it back to the government for guaranteed profits…or speculating on oil or gold, or whatever. Not for nothing gold is up 17% in the last six months. If you can borrow at zero cost you can do a lot of speculating. Many speculators are using the government’s money to bet against the US dollar – and making a lot of money.The US government has put $13 trillion of the nation’s money and credit on the line. That’s how much the feds have at risk on all their toxic asset purchases, loans and guarantees. Apparently, Goldman gets its share. What can the feds do? Everyone is telling Mr. Obama that he must do something…now! So what does he do? Something stupid, of course.Let’s do some dry facts, shall we?On September 21, 2008, Goldman Sachs received Federal Reserve approval to transition from an investment bank to a bank holding company. That gave the firm specific advantages.Wikipedia on the topic:New or smaller banks often re-structure themselves into bank holding companies to take advantage of the greater financial flexibility this corporate and legal status permits. Becoming a bank holding company makes it easier for the firm to raise capital than as a traditional bank. The holding company can assume debt of shareholders on a tax free basis, borrow money, acquire other banks and non-bank entities more easily, and issue stock with greater regulatory ease. It also has a greater legal authority to conduct share repurchases of its own stock.The downside includes responding to additional regulatory authorities, especially if there are more than 300 shareholders, at which point the bank holding company is forced to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. There are also added expenses of operating with an extra layer of administration.As a result of the Global financial crisis of 2008, many traditional investment banks and finance corporations such as Goldman Sachs, American Express, CIT Group and General Motors Acceptance Corporation[3] successfully converted to bank holding companies in order to gain access to liquidity and funding. This arrangement allows them access to the Federal Reserve’s discount window and benefit from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, but the companies are now subject to more regulation and their ability to have exposure to risk will be limited.In other words, in exchange for access to extremely cheap funding, Goldman agreed to more regulation, specifically that of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the SEC. What the meaning of that is precisely may have become a whole lot clearer only this week, as the SEC hired a 29-year old former Goldman employee to head its enforcement division as chief operating officer.Does that sound like awe-inspiring scrutiny to you? Like a kid, no matter how smart, will stand up against and defeat the likes of Paulson, Geithner and Blankfein where entire divisions of smart regulators have gotten nowhere?Wikipedia again:In March 2009 it was reported that in 2008, Goldman Sachs, alongside other major US and international financial institutions, had received billions of dollars during the unwind of insurance arrangements purchased from AIG, including $12.9bn from funds provided by the US Federal Reserve to bail out AIG.And although Goldman was among ten large financial institutions that the Treasury allowed to pay back their TARP emergency capital infusions, the firm still has benefits from $28 billion in subsidization from the government in form of cheap debt backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.In July 2009, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo revealed, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, that after having received its TARP bailout in late 2008, Goldman Sachs paid hundreds of millions of dollars in bonuses to 1556 of its employees. This included 212 employees each receiving $3 million in bonuses, 391 receiving $2 million bonuses, and 953 receiving $1 million in bonuses.Now, as a bank, you would think your business is banking. As Elizabeth Warren reminds us, Hank Paulson last year said that the government put all that money into the financial system to increase lending. Goldman’s business has nothing to do with that. Not before, and not after, when it morphed into a bank holding company. Goldman is still what it always was: a securities firm, an investment bank, nothing like a “normal bank”. It has assumed all the privileges of the bank holding co. status, and none of its obligations.The bank holding co. status, and the access to the Fed discount window it provides, is in place for a specific purpose. That is, to protect a bank’s customers -depositors- and shareholders from what might happen if a bank temporarily needs access to credit and can’t find it fast enough anywhere else.However, and specifically for that reason, no corporation should receive the benefits of the status if it doesn’t engage in banking to begin with. Because if it did, you would get a situation in which purely speculative firms can get their hands on enormous amounts of -dirt- cheap credit, for which in the end the taxpayer is liable, and use it to fund their gambling addictions. Without running the risk of losing a single penny.That is simply not what, for instance, the discount window was intended for. And if it is used in that fashion regardless, it invites the recipient to engage in highly leveraged gambling, in which it gets to keep all the potential profits, while the taxpayer must cover all losses.Of course this touches directly on why the Glass-Steagall act came into existence in the 1930′s, separating the activities of commercial banks and investment banks, as well as on what happened after the act was repealed in 1999. That repeal, in simplified terms, enabled corporations to go out and place wagers covered by depositors’ money. That repeal was also the signal that the WhIte House and Capitol Hill would from there on in serve as mere marionette theaters paid for and directed by their puppeteers hidden behind the one-way mirrors of Lower Manhattan’s shiniest towers.Again admittedly simplified, the newly fangled hybrid banks blew through the people’s deposits in less than a decade. After which they were granted access to money the people didn’t even have, in the shape of potential future federal tax revenues.At a certain point, it becomes inevitable to ask yourself: “How long do you think it will take them to blow through that as well?”To help you figure that out, start with these questions: Have you seen the federal deficit lately? Did you see TARP inspector general Neil Barofsky’s estimate of a $23.7 trillion cost to the taxpayer of the combined bail-out plans? And, to widen your perspective, did you see the latest figures on unemployment and foreclosures?I know, you’re going to say that the deposits are almost all still there. Only 99 banks were closed so far, and all deposits were guaranteed by the FDIC. Sure, OK, but what if accounting standards could still face the light of day without growing noses like Pinokkio or shriveling like Count Transsylvania, what if the FDIC would actually close all broken banks instead of just talking about them, what if FDIC guarantees are nothing but taxpayer guarantees (after all, we know the FDIC has hardly any funds left).What if your deposits are guaranteed by nothing but your own future taxes? How would that make you feel? There are anywhere from 15 to 30 million unemployed Americans today, depending on how you count, a number that grows by between 500,000 and 1 million each month, again depending on counting ‘strategies’. These people are not paying the taxes that serve to guarantee the FDIC guaranteed bank deposits.Those same taxes, (remember, we’re talking about the ones you haven’t even paid yet) will also need to fund the record deficit the government is somewhat proudly sporting. And we could add all the mortgages and mortgage backed-securities purchased today with a wager on your future wealth, through the GSE’s and the Federal Reserve, with the sole purpose of keeping home price levels from falling any further, which would cause life-threatening trouble for the same banks that are this week playing ‘pretty boy’ announcing record profits and intending to pay out bonuses at or beyond record levels.I started out saying that Dylan Ratigan had a few stats that you might find useful, the ones that sum up the funds Goldman Sachs has received from Washington, and which rightfully belong to the American taxpayer. Since, as Ratigan states, the funds were leveraged 20-30 fold, and the potential 20-30 fold losses incurred with taxpayer money will also be the taxpayer’s liability, the numbers have at least a better than fair-odds chance at understating the total damage, and by a considerable margin at that. Here are Ratigan‘s numbers for what Goldman received from the government, and has used to reap record profits and pay its people billion of dollars in bonuses :$10 Billion in TARP$11 Billion from the Fed$30 Billion from the FDIC$13 Billion from AIGGoldman Sachs has repaid -or so we are led to believe- the $10 billion they received through the TARP program. That leaves, according to Ratigan’s math, $54 billion in other government and Federal Reserve funds that have not been repaid. And what is that $30 billion from the FDIC anyway? The FDIC doesn’t even have $30 billion, while it has trillions of dollars in deposits to supposedly guarantee. It should be obvious to anyone with sufficient breath to fog a mirror that prior to announcing record profits, great dividends for shareholders and billions of bonuses for traders, Goldman Sachs should be forced to repay the taxpayer.And then some. After all, they made their profits with those taxpayers funds, right? And they would have ceased to exist without those same funds, right? So shouldn’t the taxpayer be first in line for a hefty part of those profits? And principal, and interest? Of course they should. It’s what anyone would expect, and demand, if they lend out money. And most of us would be willing to put some measure of pressure behind that too.Your taxpayer money is lent out through the government you yourself voted into place, which then hired officials like Tim Geithner and Larry Summers to fill crucial posts, people with strong Wall Street connections, whom you never got a chance to vote for or against, to do with your money whatever they please. Which they do.Mascara and lipstick, or so I’m told, can make most pigs look quite desirable, if they are applied in sufficient quantities.Still, there comes a time when you should ask yourself: what if the pig is dead?This is such a time.Or is there still anyone out there willing to claim that what we are facing is a financial crisis, instead of a political one?

Yeah, the road to serfdom was paved with plenty of good intentions.

“TBTF, TBTF” was like crying fire in a crowded room: total chaos so those in control could further their agenda without even an objection!

The Brazilian real dropped sharply on Tuesday, giving back some of its recent strong gains, after Brazil’s finance ministry announced that it would impose a 2 per cent tax on overseas purchases of Brazilian stocks and bonds.

I thought i would share an interesting report that i have recently read published by CEO Q Magazine on economic recovery, the new world order and the impact of current economic policies.Check it out http://www.ceoqmagazine.com

An almost certain CIT bankruptcy is spooking the market today and the debtholders have an October 29th deadline to accept a debt-for-equity swap. I sold half my equity positions today to lock in gains and also as a precautionary measure as I’m not sure about the implications a bk may have on the markets.

Smart move. I’ve been taking out profits too.PeteCA

General Yamashita was hanged 63 years ago. When the world realizes how they have rigged markets to enslave and expropriate it, Western central bankers will be lucky not to follow him.CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/TreasurerGold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

And how much of this “flight to safety” purchasing of US Treasuries in 2008 was actually retail investors vs “shell operatives” both domestic and foreign?

About Gold:http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com/2009/09/gold-long-term-thoughts.html….A powder keg is also waiting to be ignited in the paper metal ETFs, which cannot possibly have even a fraction of true access to the physical Gold or silver they claim to be in custodial (or sub-custodial) possession. These metal ETFs are diverting investment money away from the actual physical metal and are slowing its bull market progress (this was one of the intentions of these instruments, by the way). Once people realize they cannot trust bankstas at all and need to obtain a little actual physical Gold to be held outside the system, look out!I am not sure what’s going to happen to the Gold price over the next few weeks or even months. I am actually in the deflation camp for now and think the U.S. Dollar will soon have a strong rally. This may or may not affect the Gold price on an intermediate-term basis. Gold is true money and cash is king during deflation, yet the Gold price is denominated in U.S. Dollars. Gold has risen in the past right along side the U.S. Dollar and I believe this can and will happen again.And a question/reply to this discussion from Geoff 1 month earlier which is a similiar question I am having:September 20, 2009 4:58 PM”Good arguments as usual. My current quandary is whether to cash out my 401(k) and put it into gold now. There would be a tax hit and penalty, but it’s not all “my” investment since my employer matches 50%. Plus it’s in money-market funds where I hate to see it eventually whither away due to [hyper?]inflation. I hate being kind of “stuck” in dollar-denominated investments that way…

interesting insider comment below yve’s lehman story todayhttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/10/so-now-we-know-why-lehman-went-under.htmlEx-Lb says:October 20, 2009 at 7:58 amThe elephant in the room here is that in-house counsel was completely absent at both Bear and Lehman right before their respective demises, or at least, in the case of Lehman, terminally narcissistic and incapable of making any meaningful contribution to the firm short of holding a Town Hall touting his closeness to Fuld.At Bear, there was a pretty amazing General Counsel, Mark Lehman, who served on the Executive Committee through the end of the Nineties/early-2000s. But he got ill and was replaced by a real know-nothing [about Wall Street] litigator, as I understand it, who had the right credentials but none of the Street knowledge.Lehman’s Russo, a real piece of work formerly at Cadwalader, was easing out of his role as Counsel to the Executive Committee (or something like that) into the generic role of [useless, some might say] Elder Statesman, which consisted of featuring one of his homes in Architectural Digest, reporting for cable t.v. from Davos, Switzerland, listening intently to Fuld (in his own admission at the aforementioned Town Hall) whose office he faced for hours a day…squiring, well, ’nuff said.A lawyer who worked in the investment bank was selected (by another team of [want-to] know-nothings] apparently to take Russo’s place, but he was the quintessential yes-man, now at Barclays, by-the-by, and would not have served as a meaningful check on Fuld’s fantasies and was in fact probably conspiring with McDade to sell the shop and assure a position for himself somewhere as early as August.You are right, the CEOs themselves (Cayne, Fuld, guy who’s now at Guggenheim) should not have been negotiating on their own behalves, but they also should have put in place trustworthy deputies. At least Mack, by killing his enemies, for a while anyway, did that much.

REMINDER: Tonite on PBS Frontline an in depth look at the financial crisis highlighting the role of the CFTC (commodities futures trading commission).

aren’t there more leverage buyouts in the eurozone? why isn’t the euro weaker?

OR will you quit pushing this fake ‘recovery’ fueled by nothing but massive liquidity? Of course they will succeed in creating asset bubbles. It is neither sustainable not wise. Dig into it. You will find evidence of new housing bubble-mania, with speculators bidding to snap up houses at fire sale prices from a market created from mass foreclosures. Of course corporations will have ‘positive surprises’ since they have hollowed out their jobs base and they are playing the expectations game. It cannot be sustained because there are no fundamentals underpinning this ‘recovery’.If you want to put your money into the casino so you can get a short term game, go ahead. Be advised you are only feeding the larger demise and making the problem worse when you do so though.

Pete,If Matt Taibbi is correct and there are many counterfeit US Treasuries, flight away from the dollar will only be accentuated in the event of another global financial meltdown.

You aren’t being fair to OR … he has just as much right to air his opinion, misguided or not, in this forum as you and I. Besides, it may very well be that the permabears like us are wrong. We will know when we see the sea levels receding that those who they were waiting for have indeed saved us all from ourselves.

OMG, Has Goldman Sachs ‘Jumped the Shark’?Emulating Gordon Gekko at a time when the masses are calling for your head is hardly the formula for continued success.Goldman Sachs’s Griffiths Says Pay ‘Inequality’ Helps Everyone“We have to tolerate the inequality as a way to achieve greater prosperity and opportunity for all,” Brian Griffiths, who was a special adviser to former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, said yesterday at a panel discussion hosted by St. Paul’s Cathedral in London. The panel’s discussion topic was, “What is the price of morality in the marketplace?” But fear not, we still think we have a soul …Griffiths, 67, called on bankers to boost their charitable giving to help polish the financial industry’s reputation following a worldwide crisis.“To whom much is given much is expected,” he said. “There is a sense that if you make money you are expected to give.”

But…, and always are a “But”: I’M THE PRIMERO!Ok… I’m so proud, I’m so happy and I’m so sorry for you all!”Thanks for your cooperation” (a brilhant quote taked from “The 5th Element”)In time: the Dollar is in its terminal crisis! The FED strategy is one, and only one: not paying its paper, including the Dollar itself! No hopes no more!Mis besos

It’s tragic for the Global Economy in the same sense that chemotherapy is (supposed to be) tragic for the cancer cell.Roubini and everyone else wholly indoctrinated (with one’s full life staked) on this system is unable to see the forest- sustained growth, economic or otherwise, isn’t possible! Without this acknowledgment everything is exactly as it appears to be- curiously adrift, heading over a ledge…

I concur. That stated… It’s painful to watch someone who is intelligent and thoughtful continually grasp at straws. There are a couple of really sharp people here (London Banker is one notable) who was once similarly optimistic who now don’t reside in the lost-cause camp.The difference between perma-bears and perma-bulls? Bears don’t believe that there can be sustained growth, or in things like infinite energy (or abiotic oil), while bulls believe that there can be sustained growth and that we can overcome all obstacles despite finite resources. NOTE: I’m sure I’ll get scolded for expanding this outside of the “markets” (and their behaviors), but the markets eventually have to settle with Mother Nature, and she/it has the final say about all things related to growth.I side with Mother Nature, therefore I guess I have to consider myself a perma-bear.

Your long term outlook is valid. By focusing only on the longer term/big picture, I missed 100% of the cyclical 2003-2007 bull market and still came out well ahead of the market in the lost decade. I don’t regret this as I was busy doing other things and had no time to look carefully at the relationship between capital markets and the economy. Now that I am in retirement, I’ve had the time to go deeper into this area of knowledge.You will note, for example, that the type of companies/etfs I am investing in (MO, PM, KFT,PFE, MRK, LLY, BZ, XLU, JNJ, etc.) have dividend yields that are mostly above 4%, solid balance sheets, down to earth PEs, and sell recession resistant stuff. As usual, I am aiming for a 5% annual return with as little risk as possible. Right now I have 35% in 5yr CDs and 65% in equities yielding a 4% dividend. For an expected return of 4.35% assuming a buy and hold strategy with no capital appreciation.In a likely bad, but not worse case analysis, suppose my low beta equities go down 10%. This would translate in roughly a negative -2.2% annual return. By the same token, a likely scenario would be a 10% capital appreciation which would translate in a roughly a 10.7% return. In a worst case analysis, I cannot see these equities dropping more than 20% which would traslate into roughly a negative -10% annual return (i.e., 4.25% interest+dividend income -20%*.65 loss of capital). So we can calculate an expected return based on the following rough probability assessment for the different scenarios:Scenario Return Probalility*No capital Apreciation 4.3% 0.25 (i.e. 25%)10% capital Apreciation 10.7% 0.2510% loss of capital -2.2% 0.2520% loss of capital -10% 0.25Expected return: 0.75% assuming a buy and hold strategy.* One may argue for other than equal probabilities for the different scenarios. I for instance believe the probability for the first two outcomes should be higher but I prefer the more conservative analysis.A possible risk-free strategy would be to put the 65% into 1 year CDs yielding 1.5% (see Bloomberg data) for a 2.8% return (i.e., 5%*.35+1.6%*.65).So which one does one choose? It depends on one’s tolerance for risk. I am OK with the riskier strategy as I feel I could stomach the worse case return (-10%). And I view the 0.75% expected return as very conservative calculation that I feel I can easily beat by keeping my eyes on the ball combined with a little active management.

US debt as % of GDP is actually one of the lowest among the G7 And it looks it will stay that way…Public Debt of the U.S., its Peers, and the Dollarhttp://www.northerntrust.com/popups/popup_noprint.html?http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0910/document/dd101909.pdf

yes, this was the essence of what happened. Born who was head of the CFTC raised red flags back in 1998-99 about the potential lethal effect of the OTC derivative market because of no transparency, no regulation and no accounting of the number of derivative deals. She was sternly warned by Greenspan, Rubin and Summers (let’s call them GRS) to leave things alone and not interfere with the free markets. Shortly thereafter, Longterm Capital Management (LTCM) started to implode which led GRS to order the 14 largest financial institutions to all contribute hundreds of millions to stop the crisis. Again, Born tried to introduce legislation to regulate the derivative market and this time, GRS along with our illustrious Congress shut her down completely by severely limiting the power of the CFTC. The bank lobbyists had won again! Born finished out her term and resigned. Next comes the current financial meltdown of 2008. Born says this was no surprise and these huge crises will continue until we learn the lessons from the past. Only Greenspan has since acknowledged thathis “world view of self correcting markets for the past 40 years was wrong”; yet current proposed regulations of the OTC derivative market are being strongly opposed by Wall Street. There’s more, but those were the main points of the show.

A democracy is nothing without resources.Your premise is that things are going up. Last I checked there were global contractionary forces holding a firm grip, with no clear signal that this direction will reverse.The question, as I respond to it, is then this: which countries are best suited for the draw-down?Neither Brazil or India strike me as being able to hang in there very well. Both are too geared around recent bubble economics.While Russia’s governing structure is shaky, I’d still wager that they can pull together and rally around their resource base.China’s outlook is hard to peg, but given that they’ve got the longest run as a nation state, far longer than anyone else, it’s a good bet that their culture will carry them. The other positive (?) is that the bulk of the people haven’t been too indoctrinated into the “American Dream” fallacy such that they will struggle a lot dropping back down to more maintainable levels (yes, one could say “poverty”).

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/358228/John-Mauldin-Tax-Hikes-Will-Kill-the-'Recovery%E2%80%99-Which-Isn%E2%80%99t-Real-Anyway;_ylt=AobhkQ2MVFf1RNgentyX3CG7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2YnY0bWlvBHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDam9obm1hdWxkaW50?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,SPY,DIA,TBT,UDN,GLD&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=Hehehe, Obama and his Democrats crooks will cause Depression. First policy mistake is so called government sponsored affordable subprime lending to people who cant afford to buy home that blew up in 2007-2008. now second policy mistak, federal/local subprime borrowing/spending to provide entitlment/free lunch to people who dont work by Democrats crooks and scumbags.

OR I dont question your investment knowledge nor am I arguing for a bearish outlook. It isnt really relevant. I am saying the whole debate is really a part of the problem. What we typically call ‘making investment decisions’ really amounts to handing our money to those we all believe cause the problems through greed and power grabs. We justify this because we think in our case we news to make wise ‘investments’. I submit that without our money these casinos would die.Its a hard decision to leave money out of the casino when you know it is being made there and you could make it. Somehow we need to figure out how to invest it in ourselves and each others endeavors without laundering it through ‘the system’ of investing and credit that is destroying the middle class and impoverishing us. We can each make choices in this regard but they will almost certainly challenge the common wisdom and our returns may not be what they could be.Are we willing to miss the upside of playing the casino for the common good? Will we rant here or actually do what is in our power, even if we might miss out?

Homes: About to get much cheaperBy Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writerIf you thought home prices were bottoming out, you may be wrong. They’re expected to head a lot lower.Home values are predicted to drop in 342 out of 381 markets during the next year, according to a new forecast of real estate prices.Overall, the national median home price is predicted to drop 11.3% by June 30, 2010, according to Fiserv, a financial information and analysis firm. For the following year, the firm anticipates some stabilization with prices rising 3.6%.In the past, Fiserv anticipated the rapid decline in home-sale prices over the past few years — though it underestimated the scope.Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Economy.com, agreed with Fiserv’s current assessments. “I think more price declines are coming because the foreclosure crisis is not over,” he said.In fact, those areas with high concentrations of foreclosure sales will experience the steepest drops, according to Fiserv. Miami, for example, is expected to be the biggest loser. Prices are forecast to plunge 29.9% by next June — after having already fallen a whopping 48% during the past three years.If Fiserv’s forecast holds, Miami real median home price will tumble to $142,000 by June 2011.In Orlando, Fla., the second-worst performing market, Fiserv anticipates a 27% price collapse by June 2010, followed by a less severe drop the following year. In Hanford, Calif., prices are estimated to drop 26.9% and continue falling 9.5% in 2011; in Naples, Fla., they’re expected to fall 26.8% and then flatten out.Other notable losers include Las Vegas, where prices have already fallen 54.6% and are expected to lose another 23.9% by June 2010. In Phoenix values have already collapsed by 54% and could fall another 23.4%. In both cities, Fiserv anticipates the losses to continue into 2011, but they will be less than 5%.Prices had stabilizedThe latest forecast is at odds with the past few months of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index. That report has given hope that most housing markets may have already stabilized because the composite index of 20 cities rose in May, June and July. Nationally, it found that home prices have gained 3.6%.Brad Hunter, chief economist for Metrostudy, which provides housing market information to the industry, however, expects a change in fortunes, however.”I’m afraid Case-Shiller may be just a temporary reprieve,” he said.He pointed out that the tax credit for first-time home buyers helped support prices during the three months of Case-Shiller gains. By the end of November, the credit will have been used by 1.8 million homebuyers, at least 355,000 of whom would not have bought a house without the tax break, according to estimates by the National Association of Realtors. But the market assistance ends when the credit expires on Dec. 1.Hunter also sees a new wave of foreclosure problems coming from higher priced loans and prime mortgages. He expects a high failure rate for option ARM loans that were issued to prime customers so they could buy homes in bubble markets, such as California and Florida. In those areas, prices for even modest homes had skyrocketed.WinnersA handful of metro areas will buck the trend, according to Fiserv. Six markets will remain flat, and 33 will actually post gains. The biggest winner will be the Kennewick, Wash., metro area, where home prices have ramped up 8.9% over the past three years and are expected to increase another 3.4% by June 2010.Fairbanks, Alaska, prices are anticipated to rise 2.5%, while Anchorage will climb 2.1%. Elmira, N.Y., prices may inch up 1.8%.The nation’s biggest metro area, New York City, will underperform the nation as a whole over the next two years, according to Fiserv. Prices, which have already fallen 21.7% to a median of $375,000, are expected to fall 17.4% by June 2011.Home values in the nation’s second largest city, Los Angeles, have fallen 43.3% since June 2006 to a median of $313,000. They are expected to dive another 20.2% over by June 2010, and then start to climb in 2011. Chicago prices, which have fallen 25.2% to $227,000, will drop only 4.1% over the next 12 months and then starting to climb.The Detroit metro area now has the dubious distinction of having the lowest home prices in the country. Prices have dropped 51.7% to a median of $50,000. They’re expected to fall another 9.1% and then stabilize.

bm,We live at a time in history where the inclusion of the hostile brother in our worldview is necessary. This “conflict” harkens back to Cain & Able, Jacob & Esau… as well as Christ and the Anti-Christ. We must now integrated the shadow of Christ for Christ was a one-sided manifestation of a pair of opposites who brought the Logos development light into our world. Thus, we have 2,000 years now of the WORD that became flesh. Now it is time to include the missing opposite – what in depth psychology is called Eros ego consciousness not just Logos ego consciousness.The events leading up to and certainly announced by 9/11 that this psychological task is now due in our lifetime triggers The Ordeal of the Apocalypse (to consciously see what has been hidden).You can read all about it in this profound book called The Archetype of the Apocalypse.

The ordeal of the Apocalypse – beginning now and to which all of humanity is being subjected – corresponds to Job’s ordeal in the Bible yet even more pertinently to Christ’s ordeal. Christ was the first attempt of the God-image to incarnate and transform itself. Now, the second time around, humanity as a whole and not just one person is going to be the subject of that process. God is going to incarnate in humanity as a whole and in that incarnated form offer himself as a self-sacrifice to bring about his own transformation – just as he did with the individual Christ. The matter is put clearly if densely by Jung in his letter to Elinid Kotschnig in June of 1956:

Christ… was up against an unpredictable and lawless God who would need a most drastic sacrifice to appease His wrath, viz. the slaughter of His own son. Curiously enough, as on the one hand his self-sacrifice means admission of the Father’s amoral nature, he taught on the other hand a new image of God, namely that of a Loving Father in whom there is no darkness. This enormous antinomy needs some explanation. It needed the assertion that he was the Son of the Father, i.e., the incarnation of the Deity in man. As a consequence the sacrifice was a self-destruction of the amoral God, incarnated in a mortal body. Jung, Letters, vol 2, p. 213.

This passage can be applied precisely to Yahweh’s second act of incarnation in humanity as a whole. Humanity is now in the role of the “son of God.” And God is bringing about his own transformation by another self-destruction while incarnated in the “mortal body” of humankind. There will follow necessarily, archetypally, the same sequence of events as occurred in the life of a single individual but now in a larger arena. And this second act of incarnation likewise will bring about the same goal, a transformation of the God-image. The image of a totally good God – albeit pestered by a dissociated evil Satan – is no longer viable. Instead, the new God-image coming into conscious realization is that of a paradoxical union of opposites; and with it comes a healing of the metaphysical split that has characterized the entire Christian aeon.This is what can happen potentially. But the process of transforming the God-image can take place only if its human participants are conscious of what is happening, because consciousness is the agency of transformation for God and man. There is, of course, no transformation of the God-image if we end up with nothing but a heap of ruins and a group of savages having to make the laborious climb to civilization all over again. But the God-image can incarnate in a way that averts massive destruction if there are enough individuals aware (a critical mass) of the unfolding archetypal drama that is before us.I do have to share with the reader that it is my view that the transformation of the God-image is ultimately certain: because one person, Jung, has already realized what is going on. I believe that is all it takes in principle to bring about eventually a positive outcome (but then, “eventually” can be a long time). My hypothesis remains, however, that the extent of the destructive collective process will depend on how many other individuals can achieve Jung’s level of consciousness. How many will it take to reach this critical mass that will make the difference? The Book of Revelation hints at the number “144,000” – but what that symbolic number means literally cannot be known. Edinger, Archetype of the Apocalypse, pp. 176-177.

@ Yves…China and India are victims of their populations. (I speculate, their internal cultural, religious, language divides may add to the problems)The class division of brazil is actually a successful way to develope this nation. Slave labor is needed to build pyramids.The diversity in the US works because there really isn’t diversity. Race, religion, language etc… don’t matter. We all are unified in praying to the same almighty dollar. “In god we trust”.As for Russia…. I don’t really have anything good to add.Thus, my invest in Brazil still stands as one of the only longer term investments I’d be willing to “specualte” on.(EcoM, I think we had a debate on this topic some time ago.)All the best, Miss America

Please take the time to write/email the following to your Senators:Senator xyz:”Why? Please answer just this simple question:Why should the American taxpayer, at the behest of Senators like you, bail out those Wall Street bankers who have levered themselves beyond comprehension through complex financial instruments like naked CDOs, MBS, and credit default swaps, i.e., derivatives?Why?”

Don’t watch it then!

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