Roubini Video Interview on Forbes.com
Forbes.com – Roubini: One Year After Lehman (Click for VIDEO)
Forbes.com – Economist says financial road bumps remain. [3:51]
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Forbes.com – Roubini Market Correction Ahead (Click for VIDEO)
Forbes.com – Roubini says stocks will pull back; 25% probability of double-dip recession. [3:32]
29 Responses to “Roubini Video Interview on Forbes.com”
Greg • September 15th, 2009 at 8:39 pm
First
wdm223 • September 15th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
CORPORATE INSIDERS VOTE WITH THEIR FEET AND THE RESULT IS ALMOST UNANIMOUSTHIS IS A SUCKER’s RALLYDespite a near 50% rally in the stock market and “better than expected” earnings across the board, we’re continuing to see unprecedented levels of insider selling and record low levels of insider buying. The buyers in recent weeks have accumulated just over $26MM in stock ($16.5MM of which was one buyer). Meanwhile, the sells amount to over $300MM. That’s a staggering 1:30 ratio if you back out the one larger buy…..insiders haven’t been substantial buyers since late last year and in early March of 2009 – both periods just prior to major market rallies.Although the level of insider selling is certainly alarming it’s important to note that the very low levels of buying are particularly alarming. Insiders sell stock for many reasons, but they generally only buy stock for one reason: they believe the stock is going up. Despite the fact the media is reporting an end to the recession, a bottom in housing and a trough in earnings we are seeing a vote of zero confidence from the people who know these companies better than anyone else. Could this be a sign that the underlying economy is still in fact very weak as we continue to see in the trucking data, weekly rails data and weekly same store sales?http://pragcap.com/insider-selling-soars-buying-still-at-record-lowsand update:THE NEGATIVE TREND IN INSIDER SELLING WORSENSFor the latest two week period ending yesterday, insiders purchased just $4.6MM in stock while selling an astounding $471MM in stock. That is a $217MM jump over last week’s reading of $254MM. The trend in insider selling has been negative for quite some time, but even more alarming is the total lack of insider buying. Insiders sell for a number of varying reasons, but it remains confounding that the equity markets can be so convinced of an economic rebound while insiders give a resounding vote of no confidence in their own companies via purchases of their own shares. Perhaps the lack of organic growth via revenue growth has insiders less than convinced of the economic rebound.http://pragcap.com/the-negative-trend-in-insider-selling-worsenswdm223
kilgores • September 15th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
So, when is the rest of the investment community going to get the picture and begin running for the exits?SWK
blindman • September 15th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
@ video above, and then some extra.n.r. agrees the players in the economy must”delever”. the banks (big and self selected few)are the “instruments”, structural and non functional,of leverage. button pushers. it is their business etc. the worse they do for us the better they do for themselves.hmm?question: how is it possible to support, withtaxpayer leverage, the structural and non functionalsystem of leverage and then expect deleveragingto occur? just rephrasing that same question again.anyway…requesting aparticular song? yes, i think i heard that,.Tom Waits, Singapore.We sail tonight for Singapore,we’re all as mad as hatters hereI’ve fallen for a tawny Moor,took off to the land of NodDrank with all the Chinamen,walked the sewers of ParisI danced along a colored wind,dangled from a rope of sandYou must say goodbye to me.We sail tonight for Singapore,don’t fall asleep while you’re ashoreCross your heart and hope to diewhen you hear the children cryLet marrow bone and cleaver choosewhile making feet for children shoesThrough the alley, back from hell,when you hear that steeple bellYou must say goodbye to me.Wipe him down with gasoline’til his arms are hard and meanFrom now on boys this iron boat’s your homeSo heave away, boysWe sail tonight for Singapore,take your blankets from the floorWash your mouth out by the door,the whole town’s made of iron oreEvery witness turns to steam,they all become Italian dreamsFill your pockets up with earth,get yourself a dollar’s worthAway boys, away boys, heave away.The captain is a one-armed dwarf,he’s throwing dice along the wharfIn the land of the blindthe one-eyed man is king, so take this ring.We sail tonight for Singapore,we’re all as mad as hatters hereI’ve fallen for a tawny Moor,took off to the land of NodDrank with all the Chinamen,walked the sewers of ParisI drank along a colored wind,I dangled from a rope of sandYou must say goodbye to me..http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHyYhyp0kTc&feature=related.live from the “glitter and doom tour”. 2008.the song was written in 1985, from the album”rain dogs”. interesting wiki search. the concepthas to do with dogs becoming lost in the rain andlosing their way, scent non recognition. title cut”rain dogs”… “inside a broken clock, splashing thewine with the raindogs..”.”Waits, discussing his mistrust of the then fashionable studio techniques, said: “If I want a sound, I usually feel better if I’ve chased it and killed it, skinned it and cooked it. Most things you can get with a button nowadays. So if I was trying for a certain drum sound, my engineer would say: ‘Oh, for Christ’s sake, why are we wasting our time? Let’s just hit this little cup with a stick here, sample something (take a drum sound from another record) and make it bigger in the mix, don’t worry about it.’ I’d say, ‘No, I would rather go in the bathroom and hit the door with a piece of two-by-four very hard.’” [5] Waits also stated that “if we couldn’t get the right sound out of the drum set we’d get a chest of drawers in the bathroom and bang it real hard with a two-by-four”, such that “the sounds become your own.”".another link for those interested in americanculture at the height of the regan “revolution”..http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvboZrCu6t8&NR=1.and this 9/13/2009…(the capitalist)http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dylan-ratigan/americans-have-been-taken_b_285225.html.this 9/15/2009.. summary..life settlement and more..(the socialist)http://archive.wbai.org/files/mp3/090915_170001taim.MP3.both disgusted with the “reality” of the moment asour capacity to see the moment actually convergeson the moment? re cognition always results in achange of perspective, behavior and position..http://www.garynull.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/GaryNullShow091409.mp3.for good measure.? telemere length, longer isbetter!antal fekete said we lack a theory of speculation, or something like that. there must be one out there.
Anonymous • September 15th, 2009 at 11:40 pm
enjoy……http://www.jolietpubliclibrary.org/Digitization%20Projects/The%201930s/Depression.htmThe Great Depression began with the crash of the stock markets in October, 1929, and did not end until World War II. At its height in 1932, more than 8 million men and women, one-third of the non-farm workforce were out of a job.Below are images of headlines, stories, and political cartoons published in the Joliet Herald-News during the first years of the depression that illustrate the problems faced by people in Joliet and around the nation as a result of the Great Depression, and the responses to those problems by the people and government of Joliet, and the Illinois and U.S. governments.THE SUN WILL COME OUT TOMORROW
Anonymous • September 15th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
enjoy…..http://greatdepression2006.blogspot.com/2007/08/famous-quotes-from-past-revisited.htmli like this one….”[1930 will be] a splendid employment year.”- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year’s Forecast, December 19292009′s version”[1930 will be] an “Awesome” employment year.”
Anonymous • September 15th, 2009 at 11:44 pm
enjoy…..http://greatdepression2006.blogspot.com/2007/08/famous-quotes-from-past-revisited.htmli like this one….”[1930 will be] a splendid employment year.”- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year’s Forecast, December 19292009′s version”[20100 will be] an “Awesome” employment year.”
Little Saver • September 16th, 2009 at 1:34 am
>And most stunningly — it is a system that no one in our government has yet made any effort to fundamentally change. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dylan-ratigan/americans-have-been-taken_b_285225.htmlNot so stunning after all, when considering all who see short term personal advantage in it, alas…>As a country, we must demand that our politicians stop serving those whose business models are based on systemic theft and start serving those who seek to create value for others — the workers, innovators and investors who have made this country great. <
PeterJB • September 16th, 2009 at 4:31 am
“If I want a sound, I usually feel better if I’ve chased it and killed it, skinned it and cooked it. “@ blindmanA sound evokes most, if not all, its harmonics -Resonance delivers an energy release greater than its capacity -Resonances ends due to dampening – of its own nature and character -Sound is signal then, coherent to those of the identical constituency -What then noise?What then function?Is then the question of sound only unknown to man? Like socio-economics, do we all need to roll the eyes and fall to our knees when the holy economists make their pronouncements?”It always takes ideology to consummate massive error.” How true, indeed!Ho hum
wdm223 • September 16th, 2009 at 5:10 am
It’s possible that the marginal prices for stocks will be artificially supported by the Fed/Treasury for quite a long time.
wdm223 • September 16th, 2009 at 5:28 am
Hey—What do you expect?Obama selected as his chief economic adviser the man who blew up Harvard’s endowment by loading it with derivatives,initiated the failed real estate speculation in Allstonhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aTXaa0GpOPAoBut what got Larry Summers fired was his bigoted remarks about women and blacks.That’s OK, he went to hedge fund D E Shaw and got paid $5.2 million for peddling worthless securities to SWF’s.http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLNE53502820090406We all know the Treas. Sec. is a tax cheat, felony offense.Geithner has said off the record that he doesn’t care whether the Wall Street bailout helps the economy or not.It’s clear Geithner is in there just to stack up the Benjamins and collect his $500 million payoff from Blankenstein in a couple of years after he has diverted as much money as he can get away with into the hands of his friends on Wall Street.These are a few of the reasons why those who ridicule attempts at rational debate about economic policy have a point-it’s all about looting the government coffers..http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract-id=227162wdm223
PeterJB • September 16th, 2009 at 5:55 am
Speaking of and having Spoken of – so just what is “moral Hazard”"That is, it is – parlance or jargon of the financial industries (sic) for that defined as ‘Moral hazard’ as the prospect that a party insulated from risk may behave differently from the way it would behave if it were fully exposed to the risk. In insurance, moral hazard that occurs without conscious or malicious action is called morale hazard.’Just consider the above as rough but generally accurate understanding of “Moral Hazard”. [Do your own research!]Has it occurred to anyone that the source of the problems of the global socio-economic collapse are those involved with ‘human behaviour’ as opposed to “Moral Hazard”? For example: theft, deceit, incompetence, cover-ups, intentional betrayal, denial, irresponsibility, lying, misrepresentation, manipulation, etc., etc., or IOW, normal human behaviour – when caught betwixt and between -er, red-handed.The “moral hazard” argument is no longer relevant: we are dealing NOW, with something far more fundamental; primaeval survival – and all that hangs off it.My bet is that the ‘real-economy’ will win.Ho hum
wdm223 • September 16th, 2009 at 6:04 am
Looming U.S. Political CrisisJimmy Carter asserts racism as underlying cause of anti-Obama rage.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/15/jimmy-carter-wilsons-outb_n_288003.htmlHouse Speech Limitationshttp://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0909/House_guidelines_for_Presidential_putdowns.htmlwdm223
blindman • September 16th, 2009 at 6:40 am
pjb,agreed. people will come to miss the rhythmsof their own heart beat, the sound of it.we will be forced to trust our own eyes andthoughts, however limited, as the narrativebeing projected becomes less and less credibleor probable.ps. the present moment is another example of the unityof all life and non life. we can see this, availablefor all to see. not frightening though some havethis initial reaction.just thought i’d add that.
blindman • September 16th, 2009 at 6:45 am
pjb,noise, signal out of time, not representingany source of intelligible unique origin.the sound / song of man, currently.
Chignos • September 16th, 2009 at 8:04 am
Check out these videos of out dear leader:http://hotair.com/archives/2009/09/16/obamateurism-of-the-day-119/What a loser.
The Alarmist • September 16th, 2009 at 9:03 am
Sure, but moral hazard is usually an invitation for weaknesses of human character to rear their ugly head.Of the Seven Deadly sins, envy is the one that often trumps the inherent decency of the average person.
The Alarmist • September 16th, 2009 at 9:05 am
Gee, I didn’t feel like a racist until that Georgia cracker called me one. I guess we are all racists now in the new Amerika where dissent is no longer tolerable.
MM CA • September 16th, 2009 at 9:32 am
INTERNATIONAL. Legendary global investor and chairman of Singapore- based Rogers Holdings, Jim Rogers said the Fed and the US Treasury should have let 10 banks fail, not just Lehman Brothers, for the financial system to clean itself up.Speaking to CNBC Wordwide Exchange today Rogers said “All the government officials and bureaucrats loved the fact Lehman failed, because they could all jump in and support banks.”"This whole problem was not caused by Lehman Brothers or Lehman Brothers failure. Lehman was an effect not a cause.”"The real problem over the past 10-15 years has been that regulators have not let people fail. Had they let people fail we would have solved this problem a long time ago. I don’t know why they’re not in jail,” Rogers said.Reiterating his view about US monetary policy and their effect on the Dollar, Rogers warned. “I would expect there to be a currency crisis or a semi-crisis this fall or next year. It’s crony capitalism, Bernanke and Greenspan have brought crony capitalism to America … but that’s not going to solve the world’s problems.”"We’re going to have zombie capitalism for the next 15-20 years. How long are you going to let the bureaucrats run the thing so we can’t have a clean system?,” he added.”Banks have been going bankrupt for a few hundreds years. The way the system works is when somebody fails you let him fail. What we’re doing now is we’re taking the assets away from the competent people and giving them to incompetent people and telling them now you can compete with competent people with their money.”Addressing debt & consumption and how more of the same can solve the problem, a theme that has become classic Rogers rants, he said: “How can the solution for debt and consumption be more debt and more consumption? How can that be the solution to our problems?”"What we’re doing now is we’re taking the assets away from the competent people and giving them to incompetent people and telling them ‘now you can compete with competent people with their money,’” Rogers added.
Guest • September 16th, 2009 at 9:35 am
Sunday, September 13, 2009The Continuing Disaster of Wall Street, One Year LaterAs he attempted to do with health care reform last week, the President is trying to breathe new life into financial reform. He’s using the anniversary of the death of Lehman Brothers and the near-death experience of the rest of the Street, culminating with a $600 billion taxpayer financed bailout, to summon the political will for change. Yet the prospects seem dubious. As with health care reform, he has stood on the sidelines for months and allowed vested interests to frame the debate. Nor has he come up with a sufficiently bold or coherent set of reforms likely to change the way the Street does business, even if enacted.Let’s be clear: The Street today is up to the same tricks it was playing before its near-death experience. Derivatives, derivatives of derivatives, fancy-dance trading schemes, high-risk bets. “Our model really never changed, we’ve said very consistently that our business model remained the same,” says Goldman Sach’s chief financial officer.The only difference now is that the Street’s biggest banks know for sure they’ll be bailed out by the federal government if their bets turn sour — which means even bigger bets and bigger bucks.Meanwhile, the banks’ gigantic pile of non-performing loans is also growing bigger, as more and more jobless Americans can’t pay their mortgages, credit card bills, and car loans. So forget any new lending to Main Street. Small businesses still can’t get loans. Even credit-worthy borrowers are having a hard time getting new mortgages.The mega-bailout of Wall Street accomplished little. The only big winners have been top bank executives and traders, whose pay packages are once again in the stratosphere. Banks have been so eager to lure and keep top deal makers and traders they’ve even revived the practice of offering ironclad, multimillion-dollar payments – guaranteed no matter how the employee performs. Goldman Sachs is on course to hand out bonuses that could rival its record pre-meltdown paydays. In the second quarter this year it posted its fattest quarterly profit in its 140-year history, and earmarked $11.4 billion to compensate its happy campers. Which translates into about $770,000 per Goldman employee on average, just about what they earned at height of boom. Of course, top executives and traders will pocket much more.Every other big bank feels it has to match Goldman’s pay packages if it wants to hold on to its “talent.” Citigroup, still on life-support courtesy of $45 billion from American taxpayers, has told the White House it needs to pay its twenty-five top executives an average of $10 million each this year, and award its best trader $100 million.A few banks like Goldman have officially repaid their TARP money but look more closely and you’ll find that every one of them is still on the public dole. Goldman won’t repay taxpayers the $13 billion it never would have collected from AIG had we not kept AIG alive. (In one of the most blatant conflicts of interest in all of American history, Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein attended the closed-door meeting last fall where then Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, who was formerly Goldman’s CEO, and Tim Geithner, then at the New York Fed, made the decision to bail out AIG.) Meanwhile, Goldman is still depending on $28 billion in outstanding debt issued cheaply with the backing of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Which means you and I are still indirectly funding Goldman’s high-risk operations.So will the President succeed on financial reform? I wish I could be optimistic. His milktoast list of proposed reforms is inadequate to the task, even if adopted. The Street’s behavior since its bailout should be proof enough that halfway measures won’t do. The basic function of commercial banking in our economic system — linking savers to borrowers — should never have been confused with the casino-like function of investment banking. Securitization, whereby loans are turned into securities traded around the world, has made lenders unaccountable for the risks they take on. The Glass-Steagall Act should be resurrected. Pension and 401 (k) plans, meanwhile, should never have been allowed to subject their beneficiaries to the risks that Wall Street gamblers routinely run. Put simply, the Street has been given too many opportunities to play too many games with other peoples’ money.But, like the health care industry, Wall Street has platoons of lobbyists and an almost unlimited war chest to protect its interests and prevent change. And with the Dow Jones Industrial Average trending upward again — and the public’s and the media’s attention focused elsewhere, especially on health care — it will be difficult to summon the same sense of urgency financial reform commanded six months ago.Yet without substantial reform, the nation and the world will almost certainly be plunged into the same crisis or worse at some point in the not-too-distant future. Wall Street’s major banks are already en route to their old, dangerous ways — now made more dangerous by their sure knowledge that they are too big to fail.posted by Robert Reich | 11:17 PM
Guest • September 16th, 2009 at 9:36 am
Bailout Recipient Banks Lending Drops For Sixth Consecutive MonthSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/15/2009 19:38 -0500Bailout Bank Lending Survey Banks Geithner Government Propaganda Retail Sales Sales Savings Rate spinning Tim GeithnerIt was just yesterday that Tim Geithner was lying that banks are constantly increasing lending to consumers. Well, yet another lie refuted. Banks, and not just any banks, but those receiving government bail outs and subsidies, continued constricting lending in July, with total average loan balance outstanding declining by $54 billion from $4,295 billion to $4,241 billion, a 1.3% decline, following a 1.1% decline in June.As for the reason why loan originations in July declined a whopping 10% after posting a 12.7% increase in June, the government simply noted that this was due to “decreased demand from borrowers.”And so the circular lie continues: the government claims lending is increasing, when in fact, it is not, and when confronted with this fact, the government claims this is due to lack of interest. Furthermore, with retail sales reportedly higher, the consumer is allegedly spending more, with average wages declining, meaning consumer need to borrow to finance purchases, or else eat into their meager savings. Yet all this is occurring on the foreground of a rapidly increasing savings rate. So consumers are not borrowing, they are saving more, yet somehow sales are increasing: the lie is so circular that if there was a Kudlowbot, its head would explode trying to “spin” this null argument.Last but not least, the primary politically correct reason for bailing out banks was to ensure that they can continue lending. So here are the numbers: $4,434.7 billion in loans outstanding in January, $4,241.4 billion in July: a 4.4% decline, which, all else being equal, would have to be offset by a comparable increase in the rate of savings. However, with wages declining and more and more people becoming unemployed, all else is anything but equal. At least bank CEOs get their precious bail out capital and golden parachute packages (ref: John Thain) as popular media outlets continue spinning lies and spewing factless propaganda.
Guest • September 16th, 2009 at 9:38 am
new thread
Guest • September 16th, 2009 at 11:05 am
I’d argue that Obama is right. Profits are being taken off the top without any regard for expenses / the bottom-line – hence systemic collapse and the looting of the American economy by global players who have no investment in the health of the US economy.American taxpayers are left holding the bag – privatize profits and socialize the the losses. Quite the scam they’ve got going on, I’d say.
Guest • September 16th, 2009 at 11:52 am
Oh come on!I see those un-cloaked KKKers all over the place.Racism DOES exist in the US, just like mass looting exists. It’s just that in the US everything is professionally wrapped such that it looks edible. Sometimes, however, the packaging isn’t all that sharp, and you get to see what lies underneath by likes of Limbaugh and others.Divide and conquer. Racism is but a means for the rich to exploit the poor. Rich blacks do it every bit as well (witness Obama) as white, it’s just there there are less rich blacks, which makes them a bit less obvious.And, this issue isn’t unique to the US.
Anonymous • September 16th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
I lost alot of money because of Roubini. He said when the dow bounced to 7400 he was on CNBC say it was bear market rally. Now the dow is 9800. I believed him but he was all wrong.
Chignos • September 16th, 2009 at 11:11 pm
Without Obama’s idea to socialize the losses, we’d be home free. Obama’s wrong.
Chignos • September 16th, 2009 at 11:14 pm
Be a sport, Guest. We’re all racists, black, white, brown, and yellow. What’s the use of harping about it? Now let’s get on with loving each other and the development of the world.
guest • September 16th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
Boo hoo, I feel so sorry for poor little you. Whose advice are you gonna take (instead of thinking for yourself and taking your lumps if you make wrong decisions) next time?
Guest • September 17th, 2009 at 10:47 pm
I also lost money because of Roubini. He needs to get off the television. His credibility is gone. He is a one trick phony.












