Pretty much a “just the facts ma’am” summarization. The economy is just going to whither on the vine for the next few years…decades?

GOOD POINT DR ROUBINIPossible inflation in debt treasuries in the next year or two equals mortgage interest rate increases.Still equates to more deflation in home prices with chronic unemployment and wage depression?

Green Shoots = Green FungusDavid Rosenberg had good interview this week in theCNBC where he said that situation will deteriorate. A lot of employers have reduced working hours and if there is improvement in the economy there would NOT be any new jobs created as the employers will just increase hours for existing workers.

I officially declare you the FIRSTO! Thanks for your cooperation!But, Professor Roubini knows very well that these rallies are all pure freak. They are nourished by hedge-funds in total desesperation, pressed by their also desesperated clients – risk levels are terrible and will turn manifest soon. In my Country we said about this picture: “It’s the last dance of the Fiscal Island!”Near Colapse, very near!

The Unemployment Rate and Non Farm Payrolls are regarded as lagging indicators. However, Dr. Roubini has confirmed my view that they have become a leading indicator. What is happening currently in the labour markets is having a huge impact on the economy going forward. Without jobs, it is impossible to grow an economy that is made up mainly, about 70%, of personal consumption. It is difficult to see the housing market problems stabilise without getting employment stabilised. Job losses today mean a weaker economy and more job losses tomorrow.

Morbid,Have you invested in puts?

Some (including Gary Schilling) have argued that the government’s largess to the banks is not really inflationary, because the banks aren’t lending and few creditworthy individuals are trying to borrow. In other words,the money is traped inside the banks and can’t get out. But this arguement ignores the fact that most large banks are now composites of traditional banking enterprises, which are struggling to avoid losses, and trading entities, which must be relied upon for profits. The trading entities speculate in commodities and other assets classes, essentially using government funds as collateral. All of this makes the fed’s actions highly inflationary.

The employment ratio is still plunging. 59.5% in June. The St. Louis Fed has a great chart on this.We are in the midst of a permanent downward slid in the US standard of living.This is unprecedented.

Here we go folks, buckle up.if we close below 8300 today -downward spiral will be in progress to 6500 by august.Reply to this comment By Guest on 2009-07-02 14:04:20

NYSE GLITCH! TRADING EXTENDEDThe plunge protection needs until 4:15 to turn this market around….

@Gloomy and Brian.When you refer to the 350% debt to GDP ratio, what debt are you looking at?

Many have called President Obama’s stimulus plan a return to Keynesian policy. Some of us who like reading Keynes professionally or for leisure have already been scratching our heads. I have wondered in particular whether the plan isn’t set up to work in a manner completely backwards from what Keynes himself had in mind when he advocated economic stabilization by government.There are two things to remember about Keynes’s fiscal policy proposals: 1) government spending was always linked to the goal of full employment (the absence of both cyclical and structural unemployment) and 2) to achieve macro-stability and full employment, the government had to employ the unemployed directly into public works.Read more here:http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2009/07/message-to-president-obama-stop-priming.html

I’ve read 375% for Q1, 09. Also average over time was around 140-160%.

Or, how about this one: When GS is the ONLY player left standing how is it going to make money?Mark

The good folks at Zero Hedge are thinking the same way as you, and the good news is they are doing something about it. See the email below from yesterday. The only way ‘we the people’ can get control of things again is to stand up and be counted. Let’s pray that enough are willing.”After observing the complete lack of enforcement activity by traditional regulators such as the SEC and FINRA, in a time when even regulatory insiders have notified us about a culture of utter and incomprehensible complacency, Zero Hedge has recently initiated a “whistleblower” program in which we appeal directly to industry insiders.http://www.zerohedge.com/node/988Having received hundreds of unsolicited emails from people embedded deep in the various layers of the capital markets and financial advisory services, we have decided to proactively appeal to the conscience of all those who see wrongdoing unfold before their eyes, yet are powerless to do anything for fear of retaliation.We will henceforth provide an anonymous venue where we will compile, filter and distribute actionable data to appropriate forums such as FBI branch offices, regional Attorney Generals, the U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, and the offices of Alan Grayson, Tom Harkin and Brad Sherman. We may also publicly disclose conclusive data via Zero Hedge and other media outlets.In an attempt to proceed with this venture unhindered, Zero Hedge has now moved both its server and ISP offshore, where the chance of malicious intervention is substantially mitigated.http://www.zerohedge.com/As this grassroots campaign can only succeed if the general population is aware of its existence, we appeal to readers everywhere to spread the word. If our appointed officials and their crony organizations will not protect the “little” investor, it is our responsibility to uncover dishonest, illicit and illegal acts (and in the process remove those whom we have voted into power, who refuse to do the right thing).Tyler DurdenZero HedgeIndependent Contractor

“The June employment report suggests that the alleged ‘green shoots’ are mostly yellow weeds that may eventually turn into brown manure.”This is your best line ever. lol.

depends on the local tax agency. some areas yes, some areas no and some areas the foreclosed owner still is even if they don’t live there

I am not an economist, but from what I recall of Keynes, he was a pretty decent guy and not intent on milking the sheeple of every last dime they have to bail out the most corrupt among us. This may be Goldmanism, Geithnerism, Bernakeism, or some other ism, but I would not call it Keynesian. How about lootism?Independent Contractor

The only insight I have seen on this is the story about people mailing the keys back and the bank refuses to foreclose on the property. Then the tax bills keep going to the “still” owner even though they have abandoned the property. The banks have done this as far as I know (which isn’t much) only if the property is so far under water that it is a complete write-off.Here is one of many sites where you can read about such a thing.Mortgage Companies Refusing Foreclosure When Borrower Stops Paying

In today’s market the mortgage company is probably going to ignore the fact that the borrower has not made the payments. The amount of time that the lender will ignore the non-payments will depend on several factors. What condition is the house in? If the property is in poor condition or has a small value then the mortgage company will be less likely to foreclose because they do not want to take care of the property. How many properties are being sold in that particular area? If the properties are not moving than the mortgage company is less likely to foreclose because this reduces their chances of selling the property to a third party. What is the amount of the taxes due and owing for the property?Keep in mind that mortgage company wants to make money on the deal, not lose even more money by paying the back property taxes. So the mortgage company will delay as long a possible to foreclose hoping that the borrower will pay the back taxes or that the taxes will be paid if the property is sold to a third party.

What does the bottom look like? Have you ever gone camping? Like that. When will we reach the bottom? Ah, thats the question.

Gentlemen? I’m a she. Is it still okay for me to short the market?

Brown manure is great for the tomatoes! At least some good will come from these green shoots/yellow weeds.

Actually, to be technically correct, we should both have referred to the waste as brown compost. I think manure refers to animal waste.:)

“. . . Even if for a couple of other quarters banks are going to use the new Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) rules and under-provisioning for loan losses to report better-than-expected [i.e., fudged] results, by Q4, with . . . .”It’s amazing how quickly the mark-to-market issue disappeared from the financial media right after FASB enabled the banks to avoid including the fair market value of their toxic assets on their earnings reports. Roubini’s article here is the first time I’ve noticed any mention of it since March.

Gentlemen tend to short the markets standing up, Ladies sitting down.

9/30/2008 Debt = $51.796 Trillion———————————————— = 359.4%9/30/2008 GDP = $14.413 Trillionhttp://pix.cs.olemiss.edu/econ/gdp2DebtRatio2009.pdf

Well, we must be generous. As Mises put it:“Lord Keynes’s doctrines did not add any new idea to the body of inflationist fallacies, a thousand times refuted by economists. His teachings were even more contradictory and inconsistent than those of his predecessors who, like Silvio Gesell, were dismissed as monetary cranks. He merely knew how to cloak the plea for inflation and credit expansion in the sophisticated terminology of mathematical economics.“The interventionist writers were at a loss to advance plausible arguments in favor of the policy of reckless spending; they simply could not find a case against the economic theorem concerning institutional unemployment. In this juncture they greeted the ‘Keynesian Revolution’ with the verses of Wordsworth: ‘Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, but to be young was very heaven.’”Adds Mises, “It was, however, a short-run heaven only…” but this does not “excuse authors who tried to provide a would-be scientific justification for the crudest of all popular fallacies, viz., inflationism.” HUMAN ACTION: A TREATISE ON ECONOMICS, p. 793.

6 in Illinois?

Mine was one of those accounts. Found out about the impending closure in advance from reading the financial press. Contacted their call center, and was told something like, “Yes it’s true.” Anything else we can help you with.” Got an email before Memorial Day weekend. They supposedly shut off all credit card accounts to new lending within a week–earlier than the date reported. This company catered to small business owners. Consider the implications for this job-creating/sustaining sector. Goodbye short-term liquidity. Good-bye jobs.

Green shoots of weeds grow pretty well when fertilized and watered. They can go to seed and infect the surrounding fields causing the other farmers to spend significant resources trying to eradicate them.From a distance, the green weeds can even look like productive fields but they not only do not produce useful products but also act to degenerate the adjacent crops. If this continues to expand, we will have nothing but green weeds and no food or fiber (no jobs or ability to pay taxes or make payments).In other words, money borrowed and spent on consumption or speculation does not generate anything of value. It may add to the GDP but that is a misnomer. In the end this stupid practice of funding the TBTF institutions is going to destroy all the underlying supporting value added enterprise in this country. Just like water and fertilizing fields of weeds.

It’s always enlightening to be advised of economic implications from a professor of law and director of the Business Law Center at Loyola University of Chicago School of Law—especially one such as yourself who has served as a Senior Attorney for the Resolution Trust Corporation and as an Enforcement Attorney with the Securities and Exchange Commission and who teaches a Securities Litigation Seminar, as well as other business related classes. And, one who has published extensively in the areas of corporate governance and financial regulation, including the impact off the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.I agree that America is in “unprecedented” territory and I lay the blame of the “permanent downward slide” in the standard of living of this great nation squarely at the door of the U.S. Congress. God help us.

I plead guilty as charged–including the typo on “slide.”You would probably enjoy my latest work:http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1364146If nothing else it will cure your insomnia.

Great post Giraf! When I read green shoots turning into manure, I figured Roubini must be a city kid. But then “green shoots” was BS in the first place, or perhaps the Karl Rove’s that grow on BS.

I also had the same doubt because this would be a significant deviation from his past ’40-45% from the peak’ predictions. But re-reading the section enforces that it means 40% fall from today.Just as another justification, looking at the Alt-A & option-arm reset schedules it is imaginable to believe the housing will not bottom for another 2-3 years (in real terms). using that and extending the 18% decline fetches:1-(1-0.18)^3 = 0.55 i.e.. 45% decline so kinda makes sense.

I just saw my old flat in NYC listed for $475k.I bought it in the early ’90s for $175k and sold it at the end of the ’90s for $250k and felt like a RE king. Well, if you project inflation forward to present day, and toss in a 1% real-gain (less just say a total discount rate of 4%), it should be somewhere around $370k now, so I would say that RE in NYC still has some way to go …. Or does it?I suspect that the coming inflation will take care of that and the bigger mis-pricing problem in the entire US RE market. So I would suggest that while all the policy makers are talking down the possibility of inflation, they are actually planning for it since it is the only policy-tool they have left that will cure all their problems.

Young Chuck in Montana bought a horse from a farmer for $100. The farmer agreed to deliver the horse the next day. The next day he drove up and said, ‘Sorry son, but I have some bad news, the horse died.’Chuck replied, ‘Well, then just give me my money back.’The farmer said, ‘Can’t do that. I went and spent it already.’ Chuck said, ‘Ok, then, just bring me the dead horse.’The farmer asked, ‘What ya gonna do with him? Chuck said, ‘I’m going to raffle him off.’ The farmer said, ‘You can’t raffle off a dead horse!’ Chuck said, ‘Sure I can, Watch me. I just won’t tell any body he’s dead.’A month later, the farmer met up with Chuck and asked, ‘What happened with that dead horse?’ Chuck said, ‘I raffled him off. I sold 500 tickets at two dollars a piece and made a profit of $898.’ The farmer said, ‘Didn’t anyone complain?’ Chuck said, ‘Just the guy who won. So I gave him his two dollars back.’Chuck grew up and works now for the government. He was the one who figured out how to ‘bail us out’.

I would liken the situation to “Green Moss” … clinging to a rock with a little bit of hope for the future.How’s that Hopey-Changey thing working out for you?

If I were a believer in conspiracies, I would point out that tomatoes are red … is it a coincidence that the ultimate beneficiaries of the regime’s policies are the reds ?

it’s also the first time Dr. Roubini discredited the unemployment figuresfrom the Govt…saying that the official number of 9.5% is really 16%…that fantasy has run out of time

TA,It may be pre-coffee confusion on my part, but hasn’t the losses at the lending level already been “crammed” down the throats of the taxpayers? The banks have been given a free pass for their MBS toxic assets but that same free pass has not been passed along to the homeowner? It would appear that taxpayer money in abundance is available to the corporate sector but unavailable to the non-corporate taxpayer like you and me. Doesn’t seem like rational thinking to me.

Well good, when the dollar crashes, US workers will be competitive with the rest of the world. Jobs will return to the US!

Dr. Roubini…. thanks for telling the truth… bubble vision (CNBC, Bloomberg, etc.) are propaganda machines for the wall street fat cats… they hype the market to draw in the mom and pop investors for the kill… you see it every day… “all is well” “don’t miss the rally” “10 must have stocks” etc etc…. The SEC is a piece of garbage… Their own employees were engaged in insider trading on a daily basis… The FBI is silent… The FBI needs to set up a hot line where people can call in to report the crimes all of the corporations are committing and getting away with, so the corporate executive compensation rapists can rob even more money from the shareholders…. The FBI is the only government organization with any credibility left — they need to go after the bad guys with all of their assets…

Water, sewer, and tax liens. They never get paid. And the number of the foreclosures is so great that the services dependent on these taxes will just disappear. Roads will be infrequently repaired or plowed, and the drainage won’t be maintained. In N. Illinois there are already “ghost town” subdivisions that are having to provide their own services, and boy is it expensive!As my father said, “residential development does not pay.” As my father-in-law said, “you get paid interest, you don’t pay it.” Those guys grew up in the last depression. My wife and I are submitting to the same processes. A large garden, stay-at-home “vacations,” and we pay cash for everything. Wear it out, use it up, make it last.

I think the talk about double dip is overly optimistic. If your scenario plays out, and I think it most likely, then we will see a lightning strike downward “Z” which will end when the leveraging has been wiped out.Funding the speculators who will run up commodity prices is insane and will have serious consequences. Those of us with capital will be forced to play along and the cost of oil and food will soar until we truly have a serious depression.First the next leg down so that the Treasury can keep borrowing costs low for a while longer. Then a new “we’ve hit bottom” media blitz and then the rush into resources as there is no where else to put money to work for a good upward trade.The big institutions have told us as much as they plan to make most of their profits with their traders.

dont trust banks. dont trust FED and Treasury. dont trust Obama and Democrats.

California IOUs Will Pay 3.75%, State Panel Decideshttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601015&sid=a3RcbccPHQhUwhat is capital structure of IOUs? at mere 3.755%, do these IOUs have strong protection on those who accept them? which idiots will accept for if lack of protection?

lets not balance budget, lets originate IOUs, may be suckers will accept these IOUs like they done with RMBS, CMBS, CDO, treasury, bla toxic funny paper?

I think Dr Roubini and the posters GSM, MMCa, et on this thread have highlighted a critical factor on why things are not rosy: The job losses this time are harbingers of tough times ahead, not the lagging indicator of the traditional recovery just around the corner.If things just couldn’t get even more screwed up, it looks like these “Pure Politicians of Genius” are going to pass a health care bill that to me looks like it combines the WORST of both private and govt plans.The proposal looks like it has been structured soley on the need to make the plan appear to accomodate private insurers, insurees, and the indigent and yet cost less than $1T over 10 years. Practicality and actual delivery of health care have been ignored or obfuscated.So now you got a huge govt plan and the bureaucracy it adds, a crazy patchwork of private insurances which the govt gets into via more tax regulations for employers over health insurance premiums, taxes on those who have insurance, reduction in Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements. CHAOS!

Now that’s appropriate.

GM and Chrysler, and those home values, were over-inflated due to massive speculation. And it’s speculation that drives markets!To say that there’s ever anyone doing things in the marketplace out of altruism is a bit of a stretch.Mark

I don’t believe that the money is available at all. I believe that it’s being used to backstop balance sheets, to beef up reserves (which got to the point of being nearly non-existent). It is, I believe, doing exactly what they all are stating it was to do- prop up the financial/banking sector. The thought is that it needs to be functional (ample reserves) for when things pick back up again; the only problem is that things WON’T pick back up again, and these financial entities are way over-scaled (bailout money has only kept THEM inflated).Mark

Too bad everyone who purchased a raffle ticket got their money by borrowing against a securitized pool of dead horses.

Not all of us!I took all my bonuses and windfalls and paid off ALL my debts during the last 10 years.Some of us lived below our means.Yet what should have been my golden years is now at risk. I just hope that the American public still has a back bone and enough intelligence to stand up for what is right.

Green shoots yellow,Weeds all a brownin’.America’s red,Her economy dyin’.

Guest posted this yesterday. Give it a reread. If you still disagree with my comments, then I conclude you enjoy poverty pollution and find Dr. Roubini’s job report extremely encouragingfrom Marketwatch comments:To All My Valued Employees,There have been some rumblings around the office about the future ofthis company and, more specifically, your job.As you know,the economy has changed for the worse and presents manychallenges. However, the good news is this: The economy doesn’t pose athreat to your job. What does threaten your job however, is the changingpolitical landscape in this country.However, let me tell you some little tidbits of fact which might helpyou decide what is in your best interest.First, while it is easy to spew rhetoric that casts employers againstemployees, you have to understand that, for every business owner, thereis a Back Story. This back story is often neglected and overshadowed bywhat you see and hear. Sure, you see me park my Mercedes outside. You’veseen my big home at last year’s Christmas party. I’m sure; all theseflashy icons of luxury conjure up some idealized thoughts about my life.However, what you don’t see is the BACK STORY:I started this company 28 years ago. At that time, I lived in a 300square foot studio apartment for 3 years. My entire living apartment wasconverted into an office so I could put forth 100% effort into buildinga company, which by the way, would eventually employ you.My diet consisted of Ramen Pride noodles because every dollar I savedwent back into this company. I drove a rusty Toyota Corolla with adefective transmission. I didn’t have time to date. Often times, Istayed home on weekends, while my friends went out drinking andpartying. In fact, I was married to my business — hard work,discipline, and sacrifice.Meanwhile, my friends got jobs. They worked 40 hours a week and made amodest $50K a year and spent every dime they earned. They drove flashycars and lived in expensive homes and wore fancy designer clothes.Instead of hitting the Nordstrom’s for the latest hotfashion item, I was trolling through the discount store extracting anyclothing item that didn’t look like it was birthed in the 70′s. Myfriends refinanced their mortgages and lived a life of luxury. I,however, did not. I put my time, my money, and my life into a businesswith avision that eventually, some day, I too, will be able to afford theseluxuries my friends supposedly had.So, while you physically arrive at the office at 9am, mentally check inat about noon, and then leave at 5pm, I don’t. There is no “off” buttonfor me. When you leave the office, you are done and you have a weekendall to yourself. I unfortunately do not have the freedom.I eat, and breathe this company every minute of the day. There is norest. There is no weekend. There is no happy hour. Every day thisbusiness is attached to my hip like a 1 year old special-needs child.You, of course, only see the fruits of that garden — the nice house,the Mercedes, the vacations… you never realize the Back Story and thesacrifices I’ve made.Now, the economy is falling apart and I, the guy that made all theright decisions and saved his money, have to bail-out all the people whodidn’t. The people who overspent their paychecks suddenly feel entitledto the same luxuries that I earned and sacrificed more than a decade ofmy life for.Yes, business ownership has is benefits but the price I’ve paid is steepand not without wounds.Unfortunately, the cost of running this business, and employing you, isstarting to eclipse the threshold of marginal benefit and let me tellyou why:I am being taxed to death and the government thinks I don’t pay enough.I have state taxes. Federal taxes. Property taxes. Sales and use taxes.Payroll taxes. Workers compensation taxes. Unemployment taxes. Taxes ontaxes. I have to hire a tax man to manage all these taxes and then guesswhat? I have to pay taxes for employing him. Government mandates andregulations and all the accounting that goes with it, now occupy most ofmy time. On Oct 15th, I wrote a check to the US Treasury for $288,000for quarterly taxes. You know what my “stimulus” check was? Zero.. Nada.Zilch.The question I have is this: Who is stimulating the economy? Me, the guywho has provided 14 people good paying jobs and serves over 2,200,000people per year with a flourishing business? Or the single mother,sitting at home pregnant with her fourth child waiting for her nextwelfare check? Obviously, government feels the latter is the realeconomic stimulus of this country.The fact is, if I deducted (Read: Stole) 50% of your paycheck you’d quitand you wouldn’t work here. I mean, why should you? That’s nuts. Whowants to get rewarded only 50% of their hard work? Well, I agree, whichis why your job is in jeopardy.Here is what many of you don’t understand … to stimulate the economyyou need to stimulate what runs the economy. Had suddenly, thegovernment mandated to me that I didn’t need to pay taxes, guess what?Instead of depositing that $288,000 into the Washington black-hole, Iwould have spent it, hired more employees, and generated substantialeconomic growth. My employees would have enjoyed the wealth of that taxcut in the form of promotions and better salaries. But – you can forgetit now.When you have a comatose man on the verge of death, you don’tdefibrillate and shock his thumb, thinking that will bring him back tolife, do you? Or, do you defibrillate his heart? Business is at theheart of America and always has been. To restart it, you must stimulateit, not kill it. Suddenly, the power brokers in Washington believe thepoor of America are the essential drivers of the American economicengine. Nothing could be further from the truth; this is the type ofchange YOU can keep.So where am I going with all this?It’s quite simple.If any new taxes are levied on me, or my company, my reaction will beswift and simple. I’ll fire you. I’ll fire your co-workers. You canthen plead with the government to pay for your mortgage, your SUV, andyour child’s future. Frankly, it isn’t my problem any more.Then, I will close this company down, move to another country, andretire. You see, I’m done. I’m done with a country that penalizes theproductive and gives to the unproductive. My motivation to work, and toprovide jobs, will be destroyed and, with it, will be my citizenship.So, if you lose your job, it won’t be at the hands of the economy; itwill be at the hands of a political hurricane that swept through thiscountry, steam-rolled the constitution, and will have changed itslandscape forever. If that happens, you can find me sitting on a beach,retired, and with no employees to worry about….Goodbye

“The US Govt will be faced with general open derision”Yes, we’re going to be good and rude to them. That’ll teach ‘em to rob us blind!By the time we’re through deriding them, they’ll think twice before they do it again.

Wasn’t it Fred Astaire who sang…“When an irresistible force such as you… Meets an old immovable object like me… You can bet as sure as you live… Something’s gotta give…”?The old immoveable object could very well be America’s political establishment: corrupt, hooked on stealing public monies to give to private supporters and all the while building wealth and power for its leaders.The Obama Administration, in the midst of a worldwide recession, seamlessly picks up the failing banker-run government model from Bush and pushes the power politics of tax, spend and control to a level Lyndon and Franklin would have never imagined.The engine of America’s economy has been struggling to pull its load against the increasing burdens of big government and big corruption. Now come the threats of national health care, amnesty, cap and tax and all the rest. After all, say the new guys in Washington with the old ideas…”We won and now it’s our turn.”But, wait a minute! This old immovable political power is about to meet its match: the irresistible force that made America the economic powerhouse of the world. Free enterprise, property rights, contract integrity and representative government.Briefly stated: After all these turbulent years the final match approaches: Tyranny versus Freedom. Something’s gotta give.

“If society fits you comfortably enough, you call it freedom.” – Robert FrostTHE reality is that a decline in resources means that the extra cushion is being lost. Now that the people have become accustomed to that cushion they will demand that it continue, whether there are resources or not. The barrier class (middle class), the class that protects the wealthy class from the lower/poor class, is eroding.Thinking that we’ll “take back America” is pure folly, as there won’t be anything to take back.Mark

Boy, Doctor Franklin really blew it when asked by a lady what kind of government had been established, a Republic or a Monarchy, at the close of the Constitutional Convention. Instead of saying, Republic, he should have said, “A Cushion, if you can keep it.”

UPDATE TO BLOG ABOVE”…2007 was only 6% less than 1973…”

IF WE DON’T SEE THE ORWELLIAN NEWSPEAK “GROWTHFRIEND” ELIMINATEDI see an endless “L”; until Mother Earth eliminates “Growthfriend” through hunger, disease, war, etc….Let’s hope we can do it the worldwide planned parenthhod method, less shocking. We need to get our world’s governments and its churches too agreeing on the demise of TOTALLY environmentally unfriendly “growthfriend”.

I agree with your characterization of N.R.

“Guest,” apparently you’re a newcomer (or just haven’t gotten it yet). My commenting doesn’t mean that it’s what I WANT, just what I see WILL be happening! The outcome that I speak about will be of no benefit to myself.The problem has been that we’ve all been in denial. When 2/3 of the world’s population lives on $3/day or less do you really think that YOUR standard of living will remain above the others? especially as resources dwindle? Don’t kid yourself.Mark

What I was implying is that the government has become a tool of corporations.Never would I say to do as anyone else says.Mark

terrific summing up

looks like is 50% of U, bottom is near, sweet,

Obama the jive artist can blame Bush & Co. all he can, he and his two bit amateur wrecking crew can remind the country of what they inherited, the outrageous spending on idiotic pork and mindless project on top of choking the energy industry, and their unaffordable medical and immigration plans, will put this country in a worse depression than we can even begin to imagine. It will impact the entire world economy and turn the U.S into a real Bananera. Communist wannabes never ran a successful economy, with a Chicago Radical, an avid practitioner of Saul Alinsky and the ethics of the Daley Clan, every sharp move up in the market is an opportunity to dump.

Doug Kass, an astute hedger, who avoided the Madoff plague, called in early March 09, on CNBC when the S+P was 660, for a generational bottom. In his latest comments he precluded a revisit. Most chartists know that a W is more convincing than a V. Some argue a triple bottom is better than a W. We had a W- between October and March. The signs are that another bottom is in the making.

Looking to buy your first home?Then better notice that bull’s eye painted on your back. You’re about to become the target—of government and government cronyism.You’ve heard of “follow the money”? Well, they’ve found you. Who do you think is going to pay the bills for the welfare society? Who do you think can be trapped into working for the government elitists and the lobbyists for the rest of his productive life?It’s you, my friend–the middleclass “homeowner.”So run, don’t walk, from the government’s seductive first-time-buyer $8000 home credit “incentive.” It’s a trap. When you’re initialing the bottoms of all those pages in that stack of realty forms for your lovely new home, be advised that you are initialing your financial life away. Every one of those initials is going to cost you money, lots of money. Sucker money, for the rest of your productive life.Dr. Roubini’s deflation and inflation predictions won’t apply to you. Why not? Because you’re a “homeowner,” a government captive subject to official fleecing–from the building and insurance industries, the real estate and banking industries, the mortgage and title company industries, the home repair and pest control industries, the utility and property tax entities, the voter and government employee interests…and any other lobbyist group linked with 21st century government.It’s a simple protection racket. Pay their inflated costs, deflation or no, or they’ll take your “home” and all your life savings that’s in it.So, in these days, while deflation eats at your principal and equity, and your bank mortgage gnaws at your paycheck, and inflation erodes your salary, be aware that every congressional-connected lobbyist will be inflating your homeowner fees big time, even in a deflationary cycle. You see how it works, don’t you? You can’t afford to be without them. Get sick, and can’t pay your bill? They’ll take your property. Get sued and no insurance? They’ll take your property. Lose your job and can’t pay your property taxes? They’ll take your property. Have a major car accident and no insurance? They’ll take your property… Just plain ol’ extortion, really.You name it–house insurance…liability insurance…car insurance…health insurance…property taxes…bond issue fees for welfare and government employee raises, for “better” libraries, schools and junior colleges, utilities, fire and police protection, ambulance service, water facilities/sewer lines/and street repairs, health facilities—they’re all your responsibility now. You see, you’re a “homeowner.”And just to get you acclimated to the feel of fleecing, your government and its lobbyists will get you started by extracting a few thousand dollars up front for buying costs (and later a few thousand in seller’s costs and possibly a few thousand in capital gains tax for your friendly government) and likely a few thousand dollars’ worth of “points” (give or take a few) for your friendly JP Morgan Chase banker. The shock wears off, with time.Home ownership. The American Trap!

The reason that they’re entrepreneurs is because they have positive attitudes and a can-do attitude. Do you honestly believe that local and state agencies wouldn’t just love to have business relocations into their areas creating jobs and would offer tax incentives in order to get them? What about offering tax incentives to keep them? Do you think that maybe lower corporate tax rates would make our goods more competitive on a global scale? Sure, we have higher labor costs, but the rest of the world is catching up.The entrepreneurs that I know (and am related to one)have an immense amount of capital ready and willing to employ, buying distressed and poorly managed American businesses, using their expertise and sharp business acumen to rebuild our once great nation. Cash is king, and they’ve got the cash. Not everyone operates on credit.

how many innocent people die in iraq for USA’s democracy promotion (which is nothing but exploitation of iraq oil fields) funded by holders of USA’s toxic funny money.

Time to replace those flags on yur pickup that you’ve been toting since nineeleven–they must be pretty worn from flapping in the wind so long.

Ron Paul said back in 2003 that “Roosevelt and his statist friends confiscated gold and radically debased the currency, ushering in the age of worldwide fiat currencies with which the international economy struggles today.”That struggle has since worsened. Therefore, I don’t think that all the evils of paper money are in. Dishonest weights and measures, debased silver, and debased paper currency as a deliberate policy are all economically destructive. Which means that the end of this American chapter hasn’t been written–and it looks to me as if it’s going to be a lot more dire than the last pages of the Great Depression.This time around, IMHO, all bets are off. America, once the greatest producer in the world, has been stripped of her manufacturing base, engineering jobs, and good name of world brotherhood. Two-thirds of US Treasuries are now held by non-residents.Already permanently crippled by Clinton and Bush, she can in no way afford Obama’s relentless attacks on her economic liberty. She is at the brink of collapse.All this to say, if the price of your former flat in New York falls a great deal more in price, I would not be surprised. Americans must prepare themselves for the aftermath of a failed dollar system, which will not be limited to the United States.

Anyone know why Pete CA has not been posting? He was supposed to fill out a weekend card before being absent from this blog. Also, OR has stopped posting–he used to post all day long. People losing faith in Roubini, perhaps? Time for a little Kremlinology.

Pete is probably on an outing with his family. OR and his wife landed two weeks or so ago in America and OR doesn’t usually post during his extended excursions. And, of course, his wife NEVER posts. My question, where is PeterJB, other than somewhere in Australia?Funny, how you miss everybody, isn’t it? And especially Dr. R., when he fails to check-in home–even if he is in Outer Mongolia or Coos Bay, Oregon–where they don’t have phones.

Better libraries, schools, utilities, fire and police protection, etc. all make for a nice community living experience. If you prefer to avoid those cost, you can go live on an undeveloped lot with a shack and an outhouse. As for the idea of renting to avoid those costs, doesn’t work. The landlord will pass the costs on the the tenant in the form of rent.

liberal democrats scum is robbing from middle-class and give to peter who doesnt work and just live off government subsidy.

Correction to the wording:At the current monthly run rates (450k avg monthly job loss over past 18 months) over the next 18 months we will hit approx 23 MILLION totally unemployed by the end of 2010. The unemployed/underemployed number will grow to approx 38 MILLION. The pct doesn’t really matter anymore. Folks should be concentrated and reporting on how many there are. Headlines should not read Unemployment reaches 9.5% it should read 15 Million are now unemployed.

if you read one article today read this one at: it shows what will happen as mroe and more NO JOBS happen and the impact on housing.http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjune09/squattertownUSA06-09.htmlDe Facto Socialism, 20 Million Vacant Houses and Squattertown, USA (June 30, 2009)Combine rising foreclosures and unemployment with de facto Federal ownership of millions of homes and you eventually get de facto socialized housing.Correspondent Richard Metzger and I have been discussing the consequences of rising foreclosures/unemployment and the de facto government ownership of millions of U.S. houses via Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac and direct ownership/control of banks.There are a lot of threads to pull together on this topic, so please bear with me as we set up the contexts.

SATURDAY, JULY 04, 2009LA Times: ‘Another wave of foreclosures’by CalculatedRiskFrom Don Lee at the LA Times: Another wave of foreclosures is poised to strike:Just as the nation’s housing market has begun showing signs of stabilizing, another wave of foreclosures is poised to strike, possibly as early as this summer, inflicting new punishment on families, communities and the still-troubled national economy….Just how big the foreclosure wave will be is unclear. But loan defaults are up sharply. … rising foreclosures will depress home values, pushing more homeowners underwater. Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com estimates that 15.4 million homeowners — or about 1 in 5 of those with first mortgages — owe more on their homes than they are worth….”Absolutely,” Chase Bank spokesman Tom Kelly said when asked about an impending surge in foreclosures. … Bank of America spokesman Dan Frahm said the company was projecting a “slow increase” in the number of monthly foreclosures, potentially reaching 30% above previous normal levels….But anecdotal reports indicate that foreclosure sales have started to climb again in the second quarter. And the pipeline is clearly getting fuller…. just recently, said [Jerry Abbott, a broker and co-owner of Grupe Real Estate in Stockton], there’s been a surge of requests for so-called broker price opinions, or appraisals that lenders often ask brokers to provide just before they put a foreclosed property on the market.”I think it’s going to be a very big wave,” he said. “Just like what we saw through 2008.” (END)Hoocoodanode? And just wait for the Option ARM recast wave …http://www.calculatedriskblog

NO MORE PENSIONS- Talk about Corprate america sticking it and the burden to the Gov’t.Traditional company pensions are going away fastThe number of companies offering traditional defined benefit pension plans was shrinking even before the recession, but the downturn has accelerated the decline. Since the beginning of the year, at least 20 companies have frozen their defined pension plans, exceeding the number of plan freezes for all of 2008. A recent survey by Watson Wyatt found that, for the offering new salaried employees only one type of retirement plan: a 401(k) or similar “defined contribution” plan.rest of article: http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/retirement/2009-05-first time, the majority of Fortune 100 companies are 21-traditional-pensions-dying_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip

my bad, is cut the deficit, hehe haha.

so how could there have been construction job growth in June when this happened? And Mr. Presidnet where are the Stimulus jobs said form contruction and shovel ready jobs?Construction spending falls more than expectedhttp://www.freep.com/article/20090701/BUSINESS07/90701031/1020/BUSINESS/Construction+spending+falls+more+than+expectedTotal public construction dropped 0.6%, the biggest decline since a 1.7% fall in January. Spending on federal projects fell 0.3%, while spending on state and local projects dropped 0.7%.

How to Steal Billions in Plain View: Bernanke’s Robber Banks… As I have been saying for some time Oabma may be a nice person and i think he is, but he is inexperianced and at times I believe stupid. You are only as good as those you surround yourself with and he is surrounded by IDIOTS! Obama poll numbers will rival gearge bush numbers by dec 2009.I wish the whole dreary episode were over, but instead each day I am punished by more dreadful trial balloons and suggestions such as the latest emanating from Bernanke. There seems no end to the extent of it. Obama, the candidate of hope, comes across to me as a clueless patsy in this affair. If he understands any economics at all, he surely does not show it, not yet. According to the Wall Street Journal, he wants the second half of the $700 billion so that he won’t be caught without emergency funds if financial markets weaken further.The decisions as to what is productive or not cannot be lodged in the hands of marshals in Washington loaded with six-guns ready to shoot billion dollar bullets every which way. They have no idea what the capital pricing should be or where capital should be shifted or what enterprises should receive new capital. They are politicians, economists, lobbyists, and lawyers. And, by the way, the title of economist does not by any means suggest that a person knows anything about the ins and outs of business or what businesses should receive capital or not. Academic economists often talk and act as if they know it all, but there is no evidence that they do. There is no evidence that any person or even group of persons is able to understand and direct an entire economy. Even in individual markets, the entrepreneurs closest to the action make frequent mistakes. Directing a “financial system” to a condition of stability and progress with $350 billion is a task beyond the scope of Mr. Obama and Mr. Summers or all the king’s horses and men. They can only throw sand into the gears. They need only look at the actions of their predecessors and the directives of past administrations who brought Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into being, who encouraged subprime lending, who allowed insurance companies to endanger policyholders by writing credit insurance, and who recently have fallen into a $150 billion black hole with AIG. Closer to home, they might look at the long list of government actions in the past 15 months that have, more often than not, ultimately been associated with lower prices of stocks and corporate bonds.Full article below:http://www.lewrockwell.com/rozeff/rozeff257.html

Some things never change: the BIG BANKS will screw us all until there is nothing left, No Retirements, No Savings, and of course NO JOBS. 60% of the California WARN job layoff notices through the end of 2009 (yes they project layoffs) are from the Big banks and financial firms. They obviously feel they are not going to need many employees going forward to serivce the american consumer. I wonder why?Another Citigroup Scandal: Business as Usual for Wall StreetYet another scandal was announced Monday regarding Citigroup (C). Last week, Citi announced it was temporarily suspending its mortgage securitization unit – after management “discovered” that it had never stopped buying and packaging fraudulent mortgages (i.e. mortgages lacking appraisal and/or income documentation). I suppose we should applaud management for its ‘vigilance’ – after all, it’s only been two years since the U.S. mortgage Ponzi-scheme was revealed to the world.This week, the Japanese government ordered Citigroup to cease “marketing of banking services to individuals for a month”, after the Japanese government discovered there were “inadequate internal controls” in place to prevent money-laundering.With Citigroup having been effectively “nationalized”, one would hope that the Obama regime would ensure this was the one Wall Street bank which would have cleaned up its fraudulent operations. Apparently, these career-criminals are so conditioned to ignore the legality of their actions that there is no way to stop them from immediately lapsing into their fraudulent “business model” the moment that no one is watching.It highlights the fact that nothing has been done to eliminate the “culture of crime” which saturates Wall Street – and Washington (see “U.S. bank-fraud SYSTEMIC and INTENTIONAL – William Black”). The U.S. is now a country where a former, senior banking regulator (a true “expert”) openly accuses his entire government and the entire banking sector of conspiring to perpetrate a multi-trillion dollar fraud – and it draws nothing more than a yawn from Americans.Thus, there are two problems here. The first problem is that U.S. banking oligarchs (and their political servants) see laws as nothing more than inconvenient rules, to be avoided whenever possible – just like paying taxes.The second problem is an American public which isn’t simply apathetic, but is apparently completely indifferent to its government and its financial sector. Decades of saturation-level corruption have totally numbed Americans to the fact they have the most corrupt system of any industrialized economy in the world.What is important to note here is that when Citi management discovered its mortgage securitization unit was still engaging in openly fraudulent behavior, it did not disband the unit, and there are no reports of anyone even being fired. All the company did was suspend the unit for two weeks – just long enough to apply a coat of whitewash.With this fraud-division responsible for half of Citi’s mortgage business, the only consideration was to fumigate the stench – and then put them back to work. These criminals represent the “talent” which Citi claims is so indispensable to its operations that they should be paid huge bonuses, for breaking laws and generating countless billions in losses.The other point to note here is the deafening silence of the U.S. government. Two new scandals erupt in Citigroup only a week apart, and no one in the U.S. government even has a comment to make about this.This should have been the proverbial “straw that broke the camel’s back”, and resulted in the U.S. government immediately “taking out the trash” (i.e. firing the entire management group at Citi). Where is the leadership? Where is the integrity? Where is the competence?The third missing ingredient here is media criticism. Surely after the largest mass-fraud in history was exposed (i.e. the U.S. housing bubble and corresponding mortgage Ponzi-scheme), the media would be jumping all over such scandals – just like they do when a celebrity stumbles. This is guaranteed ratings (and advertising dollars) in the U.S. market.However, U.S. “media” outlets are too busy spreading propaganda to report news. Today, Wall Street mouthpieces like Bloomberg were once again pointing toward a “bottom” in the U.S. housing market (see “Home price declines in 20 U.S. cities eased in April”). The ‘reason’ for today’s optimism? U.S. housing prices are only falling three times as fast as during the worst year of the Great Depression. Bloomberg calls this “moderation”.These weekly calls of a “bottom” in the U.S. housing market continue to occur despite the fact it is 100% certain that the U.S. housing market will continue plummeting downward for many years to come (see “The Distressing news about Distressed U.S. properties”).Once again, the overall message here is clear: it’s “business as usual” for Wall Street.http://seekingalpha.com/article/146422-another-citigroup-scandal-business-as-usual-for-wall-street?source=from_friend

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall 19%, Defying Obama (Update1)BloombergBy Sharon L. Lynch and Kathleen M. HowleyJuly 1 (Bloomberg) — U.S. mortgage applications fell last week by the most since February, defying efforts by President Barack Obama’s administration to revive the housing market.The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase a home or refinance a loan dropped 19 percent to 444.8 in the week ended June 26 from 548.2 the prior week. The group’s refinancing gauge declined 30 percent to the lowest in seven months, while the index of purchases fell 4.5 percent.

My characterization of Obi is that he is Naïve.

The second problem is an American public which isn’t simply apathetic, but is apparently completely indifferent to its government and its financial sector. Decades of saturation-level corruption have totally numbed Americans to the fact they have the most corrupt system of any industrialized economy in the world.

The bold phrase would be me – for I have not voted since Ross Perot in 1992 – I gave up after that fiasco. The entire system has been hijacked and there is nothing one can do about it except try to decouple from as much dependence on it as possible.Thus generating your own power would be one way to start decoupling. We are on Pacific Power in CA and Warren Buffet owns it. Rates have been going up; 20% in 2007; 15% in 2008. Can’t wait to see 2009.

NO JOBS- Bear in mind these are announced and only fortune 500. the number may seem small, but its because fortune 500 doesnt account for majority of employment in this country. Small and medium size buusniess accoutns for approx 70%, Govt jobs close to another 12-12%.Pink SlipsLayoff TrackerNumber of layoffs since Nov. 1, 2008, at America’s 500 largest public companies*:579,372*Total announced layoffs at America’s 500 largest public companies as measured by a composite ranking of sales, profits, assets and market value since Nov. 1 2008. Includes layoffs at subsidiaries, joint ventures, and majority owned companies.http://www.forbes.com/2008/11/17/layoff-tracker-unemployement-lead-cx_kk_1118tracker.html

See some of the most recent layoffs announced in past few days below:State, county, local, police, teachers, jails, all startign to get hit all over the country…the most apalling is Education, library related. Did not Obama make education one of his top three promises/priorities to make it better and stronger…Just to put NO JOBS in perespective. Using June job loss of “473K” ( i beleive it was well over 700k), but using 473k and appyling avg household size of 2.7 to that number approxiamtely 1 Million, 277 Hundred and seventy seven thousand, people had thier lives turned upside down in june. Anyone think for a second those folks in general are enjoying thier July 4th holiday and looking forward to Christmas?Falling incomes could continue to depress housing pricesKrugman calls for bigger stimulus in the face of terrible June jobs reportZero job growth: 1999-2009University of Illinois -8Judge blocks Hawaii furloughs; Governor may resort to layoffsSolana County, CA -73Muncie, IN potential police layoffsRainier School -40″Forewarn Act” could expand on the WARN actFlosom, CA schools potential laoyffs -60Prestage Farms -200Onandaga County, NY considers layoffs to reduce budget shortfallHarvard University -77Tegrant Corp. -12Iowa Public Radio -5Wellpoint Health -50Older unemployed workers struggle to find jobsWesCorp -90TNT Post (The Netherlands) -11,000——————————————————————————–Thu 7-2-2009Comment on today’s layoff newsEuropean Union unemployment rises to 9.5%, peak predicted at 11.5%TruTV -106Embarq -30Teleperformance USA -250Austrian Airlines (EU) -1,000West Corp. potential layoffs -176Big Dog Motorcycles -20Evite -9Allied Systems Holdings -120″Recession-proof” schoolteachers feeling the pinchCanadia Pacific Railways temp layoffs -2,700Oslers (Canada) -23Mercury Marine layoffs loomingTexas A&M Athletics -17Layoffs likely for Pasco County, FL5% unemployment could be a decade away (Cranky: or never)FRC Components -13Widen Enterprises -15Pendelton Wollen Mills -43Springboro, OH Community Schools -13Highland County, FL potential layoffs -22Montgomery County, OH Courts -12Oracle Corp. (EU) -1,000Ruden McClosky -8Bay City, MI fire department update -6Marie Selby Botanical Gardens -7City of Margate, FL potential layoffsEmployment Report: 467K Jobs lost in June, unemployment rate remains at 9.5%Ontario Systems -35Las Vegas Sands Corp. -194Ford Motor Corp. -275National Steel Car Corp. (Canada) -600City of Escondito, CA -25Konecranes -41Monson Trucking -200Chicago Public Schools layoffs take effect -557California hotel forclosures double in 90 daysCrabtree & Evelyn Boutiques file for bankruptcyCaribbean in economic freefallGehl Company -72Lake County, FL clerk of courts -10Charlotte & Mecklenburg Schools layoff update -1,176Cam Mining layoffs in progressLayoffs looming for city of Yakima, CAClermont County, OH public library -24Scholarship America -17Warren OH police dept. -8City of Atlanta, GA jail workers -109

Bank Failure Thursday: 7 tonightThe long weekend will give FDIC extra time to clean up this week’s failures. So far they’ve announced two, three, six, seven. Last Friday’s total of five bank failures had been the largest number so far this year.Six of tonight’s failures are in Illinois. The seventh announced failure is a big one, with nearly $1.0 billion of assets. As the evening progresses, I expect there will be more failures in the Mountain and/or Pacific time zones. Looks like tonight’s total will stay at seven. A record day so far this cycle!Bank Failure #46 for 2009Bank: John Warner Bank, Clinton, ILBuyer: State Bank of Lincoln, Lincoln, ILVitals: At 4/30/09, assets of $70 million and deposits of $64 millionDIF Damage: $10 million#47Bank: First State Bank of Winchester, Winchester, ILBuyer: First National Bank of Beardstown, Beardstown, ILVitals: At 4/30/09, assets of $36 million and deposits of $34 millionDIF Damage: $6 millionInsert funny Beardstown Ladies joke here. Yes, they still have a website, though it doesn’t appear to have been updated in awhile.#48Bank: Rock River Bank, Oregon, ILBuyer: Harvard State Bank, Harvard, ILVitals: At 4/30/09, assets of $77 million and deposits of $75.8 millionDIF Damage: $27.6 millionSince the beginning of 2008, ten banks have failed in Illinois. Georgia still claims the top spot with 14.6:20 update: Wow. Three more bank failure notices just hit my inbox, bringing the total to six for the evening. And five of them are in Illinois! I thought FDIC might take advantage of the long weekend, but jeez. Doesn’t Sheila Bair plan on catching any fireworks?#49Bank: Elizabeth State Bank, Elizabeth, ILBuyer: Galena State Bank and Trust, Galena, ILVitals: At 4/30/09, assets of $55.5 million and deposits of $50.4 millionDIF Damage: $11.2 million#50Bank: First National Bank of Danville, Danville, ILBuyer: First Financial Bank, National Association, Terre Haute, INVitals: At 4/30/09, assets of $166 million and deposits of $147 millionDIF Damage: $24 millionIllinois now up to 12!#51Bank: Millennium State Bank of Texas, Dallas, TXBuyer: State Bank of Texas, Irving, TXVitals: At 6/30/09, assets of $118 million and deposits of $115 millionDIF Damage: $47 million#52Bank: Founders Bank, Worth, ILBuyer: The Private Bank and Trust Co., Chicago, ILVitals: At 6/30/09, assets of $962.5 million and deposits of $848.9 millionDIF Damage: $188.5 millionA big one. And another in Illinois. One more to go to catch Georgia!http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/2009/07/02/bank-failure-frierthursday/

See the charts at: http://blog.youwalkaway.com/10 Things We Know FOR-clo-SURE10 things we know FOR SURE are:1. Not all Foreclosures are being stalled by the moratorium.California Foreclosure Prevention Act imposed a 90-day moratorium on housing foreclosures under a new law that took effect Monday. California Assemblyman Ted Lieu said “We’re getting about 80 to 90,000 foreclosure filings every month. That’s one every 30 seconds”What else are they going to do but try to stall foreclosures? The lenders simply cannot get to all the people who need help. By stalling them, at least they may be able to modify more loans and thwart off some foreclosures. Some lenders would rather just foreclose. On the flip side, many people may look at this as a chance to simply stay in their homes for free for another 90 days and ultimately still walk away. I have personally seen several cases at You Walk Away where the lender simply will not take back the property. (Mostly jumbo loans)There is a list of lenders who have become exempt from this moratorium click here to see the list.2. Banks are holding back REO’sThis is a genius move by the Banks / Lenders. By holding back the REO inventory on the market, they are manipulating the supply and demand on Foreclosed homes and creating a feeling of scarcity. There should be no wonder right now why there are multiple offers on REO properties. If the banks were to dump there properties on to the market all at once, all the values would drop drastically and there would be no demand.Recently I sat across the desk from a bulk REO purchaser and he was complaining that the bulk buying of REO “tape” has seemingly dried up and they were moving into bulk buying of distressed notes.3. Unemployment is on the riseTaken from an AP article on July 2, 2009, The Labor Department is scheduled to release a report Thursday expected to show the nation’s unemployment rate edging closer to double digits. Wall Street economists predict the jobless rate will rise to 9.6 percent in June from 9.4 percent in May. That would mark a 26-year high.The rising rate comes as recession-weary companies continue to cut workers. Economists expect a loss of 363,000 jobs in June, up from 345,000 job cuts in May. Economists believe a chunk of those cuts will be tied to shutdowns at General Motors Corp. and fallout from the troubled auto industry.Today we found out that there were actually 467,000 job losses in the month of June. That was about 100,000 more than economists predicted.4. People are running out of money!People I know are saving more than ever. Others are doing their “Last hurrah” just before filing BK. But one thing I know for sure is that the money in our economy is shrinking and people have less and less to spend. Many are also starting to save, thinking they may need it if they lose their job or if the economy worsens. While running out of money, people are maxing out credit cards to supplement income. See this chart taken from Bloomberg.5. Credit card defaults are soaringCredit card defaults are on the rise and so are bankruptcies. At YouWalkAway.com we hear constantly that people are still using their credit cards to pay their mortgage payments. Sometimes our customers come to us just as they used the last of their credit card limit and / or their savings. Others (IMHO) come sooner, before they max out their credit cards, use all their savings and deplete their retirement accounts on a losing asset. Once your credit has reached its limit, your savings and retirement are gone, it’s going to be a much harder to get back than the 3 years it takes to be able to buy a home again after a foreclosure.Taken from CNN Money.com, Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), the nation’s largest bank, said its default rate jumped to 12.5% in May from 10.5% the month before. Other major banks, including Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Capital One (COF, Fortune 500), also reported increases in May default rates.6. A large % of real estate sales are investors/speculatorsI talk with real estate agents on a regular basis, one of the most common things I hear is cash offers. Investors have cash, not first time home buyers.In Ft. Meyers, Florida almost 60% cash buyers!Of the 6,474 homes sold in Lee County between Jan. 1 and May 31, almost 60 percent went to cash buyers. The proportion of cash buyers is even higher on foreclosed properties. About 64 percent of bank-owned properties are going to buyers with cash.7. Loan applications are down and loans are ridiculously difficult to get.A reduction in average mortgage rates last week didn’t stop the decline in applicationsfor home loans, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. reported this morning.The refinance boom continued to fizzle out, with applications down 30% from the previousweek, to the lowest level since November. Purchase applicationsfell by 4.5%, according to the report, which you can read at the website below.http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/69498.htmRecently I spoke to a loan officer relative of mine in the Mortgage industry. She said that people at her (very large lender) were quitting their jobs because it was SO difficult to get a loan funded. People all over are reporting how difficult it has become to get a mortgage loan. The lenders keep asking for more and more documentation and delay the process so long that people either lose their rate locks, or can’t close escrow on time.Cnnmoney.com reported today that: Mortgage applications plunged to a seven-month low last week as demand for home refinancing loans tumbled 30%, data from an industry group showed Wednesday.At http://www.youwalkaway.com we speak to people everyday who have recently tried to refinance or get a loan modification… Declined, declined, declined.8. Lenders are modifying loansMortgageDaily.com reported on Tuesday, June 30th that:Chase Hires 1,000s as Mod Activity LeapsJPMorgan Chase & Co.’s banking business has approved more than 100,000 trial loan modifications during the past three months, and the company is pleased so far with first-payment activity. Thousands of new employees have been hired to handle increased modification and origination activity.From April 6 through June 30, the New York-based institution approved 138,000 trial mortgage modifications, an announcement today said.Included in the total were 87,100 modifications under the Making Home Affordable program and 50,900 of its own modifications.9. People are walking away from their modified loansAn Attorney friend of mine who runs a Law Firm in San Diego told me recently that he has noticed a good number of homeowners that receive a loan modification, feel that the new modified terms are “just not good enough” and they would rather walk away from the property. The number of people re-defaulting on modified loans is anywhere between 24%-60% depending on the type of modification.Here’s what the JP Morgan analyst said about the data they pulled together from the Loan Performance database.Moving on to the subject of re-default, we note that the overall re-default rate stands at 40%. Breaking that number out by modification methods, we observe that capitalization has the highest re-default rate of 54%, and rate reduction the lowest of 24%. Also, the more severe the starting delinquency status before modification, the higher the re-default rate (Table 7). Despite rate reductions seemingly being more effective than principal forgiveness in terms of re-defaults, we note that lowering the balance of a mortgage through a modification by 20% or more results in a re-default rate of 32%, compared to 43% when the balance is increased (mainly due to capitalization)—i.e., balance modifications impact redefault rates.There also seems to be a strong correlation between monthly payment amounts and re-defaults (Table 6), reaching from 26% of modified borrowers re-defaulting when their payment drops by 30% or more, to 59% redefaulting when the payment increases. Given the mechanics of capitalization (delinquent amount is added to the loan balance and the loan is re-amortized resulting in higher payments) and the high re-default rates with an increase in monthly payment, it is obvious that the payment increase is the main driver for high re-default rates when capitalization is applied. Therefore the combination of capitalization and rate reduction, which results in an unchanged or decreased monthly payment 94% of the time and a re-default rate of 41%, is much more effective than just capitalization with a 54% redefault rate. Additionally, 66% of re-defaults happen within six months after modification. We think a 40% re-default rate for modified loans is reasonable going forward.10. Many Homeowners are still delusional about their property valueWhy wouldn’t they… the real estate market is recovering!!!! (sarcasm of course)

Michele – you and i dont usually diasagree… Where are jobs being created? I have to agree with Mark. The banks are sitting on at least 3 trillion of toxic debt still, that is why they are not lending. Venture firms like Colony and Draper are buying distressed assests at firesale prices… hoping to off them at high profit margin if things improve or jsut to have them and then use those assests to pillage the average consumer. They ar enot creating jobs…I am partnered with Tim Draper in a sports related buisness and I can assure you the only growth he sees is overseas and not in the US. Draper is the number one VC firm in Silicon valley.

Why should he be any more right than anyone else about where the bottom will be?

matt taibbijuly. 2 2009 — 11:56 pmGoldman Sachs is reeling under public pressure.http://trueslant.com/matttaibbi/.Goldamn Sachs Chairman and CEO Lloyd Blankfein attends a panel in Washington DC in November 2008 (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)You acknowledge that we may monitor your use of the Services for our own purposes (and not for your benefit). We may use the resulting information for internal business purposes or in accordance with the rules of any applicable regulatory or self-regulatory body and in compliance with applicable law and regulation.via Is Goldman Legally Frontrunning Its Clients? | zero hedge.After watching its thoroughly maladroit handling of several p.r. problems this week, I’m absolutely convinced that Goldman Sachs can be hurt if enough people keep piling on with the pressure. The latest evidence of this is its abject collapse in the face of questions from Zero Hedge about the possibility that it is using the data its takes from users of its website to front-run those same people.Front-running takes place when a bank or broker-dealer– say, Goldman, Sachs — executes a trade for its own account before filling its customer’s order. Since a large enough trade (executed by institutional investors, for instance) can actually move the price of the security in question, front-running can be a very profitable activity. It’s sort of like fast-food insider trading. It is common knowledge that front-running on Wall Street is rampant, and I interviewed more than one person for my recent Rolling Stone story who accused Goldman of front-running its big clients in all sorts of arenas, from the internet IPO years to the commodities markets……

GOLDMAN NEEDS TO GO AWAY- FOREVER… Get rid of/shut Goldman down and we then can astart to address the nations problems…Goldman Sachs Responds To Zero HedgeSubmitted by Tyler Durden on Thu, 07/02/2009 – 11:16http://www.zerohedge.com/node/12118Goldman Sachs Program Trading SLPIt seems quite a few individuals noticed our post attempting to justify some very peculiar language in not just a certain Goldman Sachs Internet disclaimer, but also the strange wording prominently featured in critical GS-client agreements. One happened to be Goldman Sachs itself. We take this opportunity to present the response by Goldman Sachs’ spokesman Ed Canaday:Dear Mr Durbin:This is in response to your recent blog about our web site disclaimer. It is quite usual for websites to have disclaimers that refer to the monitoring of site usage. Most web sites, including yours we noticed, track usage by their visitors. This is primarily used for marketing and to help inform decision about enhancing content.Your suggestion that we monitor our web site to facilitate front-running is untrue and offensive.SincerelyEd CanadayVice PresidentGoldman, Sachs & Co.____________________Ed CanadayOffice: xxx-xxx-xxxxCell: xxx-xxx-xxxxWe are happy to have caught the attention of Mr. Canaday. We believe this is the start of a great ongoing dialog. In that vein, Marla has replied to Mr. Canaday and Goldman Sachs, attempting to elaborate on some of the point that Ed did not touch upon. I present it below and am looking forward for Goldman’s forthcoming reponse:Dear Mr. Canady:Thanks for your quick reply.For your future reference, the correct spelling for “Tyler” is “Tyler Durden.” (A re-viewing of “Fight Club” might be in order, but I know Goldman VPs probably rarely have time for such luxuries).Obviously, we want to make sure we have our facts correct so I am pleased to see your email. Perhaps you can lay to rest some questions we have for the record:1. Indeed, data use disclaimers are a common feature on most websites. Still, I think you will agree that where usage patterns are so directly linked with potential investment activity and customer intentions it is a bit unusual not to have a more explicit description of the kind of use Goldman intends here. This is particularly so where customer attitudes are concerned, and appearances are important. “Internal business purposes” is a bit vague in this respect, don’t you find? This seems unlike Goldman, usually a firm known for very careful attention to detail. Why is a more specific description of such purposes not included? I would think that easier than explaining the matter repeatedly to random bloggers (and customers).2. I notice that you have not taken the opportunity to address similar disclaimer language in the form contracts used by Goldman and Spear, Leeds and Kellogg. Was this omission intentional or an oversight? (For your reference you can find the language we are curious about here: http://www.zerohedge.com/node/12083). “You acknowledge that we may monitor your use of the Services for our own purposes (and not for your benefit). We may use the resulting information for internal business purposes or in accordance with the rules of any applicable regulatory or self-regulatory body and in compliance with applicable law and regulation.”Not to be a stickler, but the drafting here seems quite careless.Note the differing terms between the website disclaimer “…the resultant information may be used by GS for its internal business purposes OR in accordance with the rules of any applicable regulatory or self-regulatory organization….” (emphasis added) and the form disclaimer “…we may use the resulting information for internal business purposes or in accordance with the rules of any applicable regulatory or self-regulatory body AND in compliance with applicable law and regulation….” (emphasis added).As a reformed legal professional myself, this seems a bit sloppy to me. Can you comment on the language and in particular why a more explicit definition of “internal business purposes” is not included?3. I also notice that you do not specifically address our question:”…has Goldman has ever actually used 360 submitted information in the decision making process of its prop trading desk?” Could you give us a response there? Perhaps you might augment that to include the decision making process of any Goldman investment decisions rather than just the prop desk and all information Goldman collects about 360 users.And lastly, while we have your attention, we were hoping you could make a statement for Zero Hedge and its readers on the long discussed topic on our pages regarding Goldman Sachs’ effective monopolization of Principal Program Trading in the New York Stock Exchange. In other venues you have attributed this domination solely to Goldman’s selection as the one and only SLP currently used by the NYSE. Would you care to elaborate how that fits in with the NYSE’s upcoming changes to their DPTR (http://www.zerohedge.com/node/11769)specifically as pertaining to J and K account type indicators. Was Goldman in any way consulted in the making of this decision by the NYSE? Did Goldman have any direct communication with the SEC on this issue?Thanks for your help with these matters. As an aside, if there is a contact at Goldman we can routinely direct these questions to that might be helpful for both of us going forward. I look forward to hearing from you.Best Regards,”Marla Singer”

Now there’s a man who knows his subject. Thanks MM CA. You made my day!

m.right.

the video is here too… amazing how they had thier dirty hands in the gas prices last summer, when i was paying 5.00 a gallon out here in calif.http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/28816321/the_great_american_bubble_machine

How severe and how low will equity and commodity asset valuations collapse? While the science of debt dependent nonlinear saturation macroeconomics quantifies the timing of the lows (and highs) and predicts when the asset valuation saturation areas will occur, the science cannot predict and can not quantify the degree of liquidation lows. The low valuations are dependent on parameters under the umbrella of possible governmental and monetary policy and hence the financial industry interventions and novel manipulationsWhat is known is that at the lows of asset valuations, those with access to credit and those capable of fabricating credit will have the first chance of buying and ‘owning’ those depressed assets, renting those assets to the newly impoverished and enserfed citizen class, and making massive subsequent profits. It will be the Goldman Sachs equivalent industries who, partnering with and controlling the treasury and federal reserve, have, without a shred of ethics or decency, so manipulated the money system and so perversely. These hated institutions have lended money they did not have to people who could not afford further debt obligation and have magically back filled losses with the help of their sister federal bankers and in-pocket and lobbied and funded politicians by stealing future citizen tax dollars. Their manipulation of the US money supply is an economic and financial system gaming travesty.In the near future to discover who, besides Goldman Sachs has access to credit and who is and has been authorized to fabricate credit without reserve assets, all that is needed will be a review of the US 2009 IRS litmus test. Those individuals and financial institutions showing money derivative profits, ie equity, futures, options, et. al. profits …. in the worse real economy of citizen job year loss in seventy years …. are exactly, exactly …. the criminals who have so profited and so destabilized the world. Those showing IRS profits in 2009 are the predatory money lenders, the money counterfeiters, the money leveragers, the money manipulators, money skimmers – and the destroyers of the Western middle class.As the country is slowly destabilized with the loss of its middle class and the progressive loss of its wage dependent real estate valuation, social political strains are likely to produce popular extremist candidates who will review those 2009 tax returns.

US companies may cook their earnings, especially the banks, and the stock market may rise…but Dr.Roubini was correct in calling this a sucker’s rally…the real unemployment/underemployment along with the large number of welfare clients equals the “25% unemployment” rate of the Great Depression…and sooner or later reality cannot be deniednote: Dr. Roubini also says that by December, 8 1/2 million with home mortgages will no longer have a job to pay their taxes or mortgagesUSA is in the Great Depression

http://www.deficitsdomatter.org/?gclid=CO_Xnpj3kJgCFQRhswodCVhQnwoh god, this is scary stuff. look at how this thing run. USA economy in toilet.

g,Well, live and learn. Woonoo? Yoo?I didn’t, that hoocoodanode is a WORD!!“used, typically somewhat pejoratively,to poke fun at the meme that ‘noonecould have (or did) foresee the economic crises’coming on” and “noone” means no one, likein nobody!Personally, I think it has something toodoo withnodes of Ranvier. But if I do get an owl,for sure I’ll name him Hoocoodanode!Sorry about the “b.” I was sure you were blindman,one of NR’s most visionary quipsterposters.Forgive my presumptuousness. But glad toonooyoo.g.g.

i agree with all you said, i posted when Jacko died that no one would cover the California budget diasaster or problems for a few weeksuntil they are done with Jacko. they got lucky because its flying under the radar for now. But as you point out, there are many other problems that will be occuring over the next year or two out here. They could literally have millions without food and shelter. the state will be the first to see the national guard called out to control all the distress… Lets see how many people are roaming LA on tuesday for Jackos funeral and also how many nationally are watching on TV- we’ll get a good idea how many people ar enot working…BTW California U3 unemployment may have passed 12% in june…

gg,for the record you are correct. what bothers meis i’m not able to identify your other gnomesde plum! so you win. damn.i like the “who cooed anode” permutation. if youthink about it in relation to “who coulda’ knowed”you might come up with a name or two who coulda’knowed and actually explained it in terms of anodesand their indispensable partners, cathodes.anyway, this is where i found the owl and theelectrician, a story from long ago and furtheraway, i suppose,he said as we proceeded into the abysmal abyss.

Question:Could China, Japan, etc. all demand that all US treasuries they now hold be converted from $ to their local currency? In this manner their investment is protected if the dollar tanks.I guess if they should insist on this now that would put the brakes on the run away wet dreams of the ObamaNation of Desolation.

Well, I for one like MM CA’s posts. She is right on to post all this information that other folks seem to have taken their eyes off. Plus I trust this person sees things only one close to the fray can see. Thus the concern and outrage.What is a Fortune 60 company?

Re Fortune 60: Not sure myself. See his or her post at 9:34 this morning.

Fortune 500 (or 1000 or 100, etc.) definitionthe 500 (or 1000, 100, etc.) largest U.S. industrial corporations as ranked according to sales volume

In this modern age, Justice is the non-negotiable price of survival.

Happy 4th of July to everyone, most especially to those with NO JOBS!. You are not alone and most of those still working (125M or so average, good hearted Americans, not Giethener, not Bernanke, not Pandit, not Blankfien and all their cronies) do care about those not working.Hide reply Reply to this comment By MM CA on 2009-07-04 12:46:02I feel like re-pasting this lovely thoughtfulness 20 times in a row, but I’ll limit myself to the one repeat and just go celebrate you, MM CA, for having the soul to say it out loud.

auspicious occasions require just the right sentiments expressedin a manner suiting the circumstance.so here, from the horses mouth, on this 4th of july.mark twain , aka s.c. etc….FOURTH OF JULYStatistics show that we lose more fools on this day than in all the other days of the year put together. This proves, by the number left in stock, that one Fourth of July per year is now inadequate, the country has grown so.- Pudd’nhead Wilson’s CalendarEight grown Americans out of ten dread the coming of the Fourth, with its pandemonium and its perils, and they rejoice when it is gone–if still alive.- Following the EquatorThe business aspects of the Fourth of July is not perfect as it stands. See what it costs us every year with loss of life, the crippling of thousands with its fireworks, and the burning down of property. It is not only sacred to patriotism and universal freedom, but to the surgeon, the undertaker, the insurance offices – and they are working it for all it is worth.- Speech, July 4, 1899, “The Day We Celebrate”.and… fromKEOKUK WEEKLY CONSTITUTIONWednesday, July 7, 1886THE FOURTH.How the Day was Celebrated in Keokuk Saturday.A Large Display of Bunting All Over the City.An Industrial Parade on Main Street in the Forenoon.The Exercises at Rand Park in the Afternoon.Good Music, Able Addresses and Orations.A Pyrotechnic Display at Rand Park Closes the Day..”Ladies and gentlemen: I little thought that when the boys woke me with their noise this morning that I should be called upon to add to their noise. But I promise not to keep you long. You have heard all there is to hear on the subject, the evidence is all in and all I have to do is to sum up the evidence and deliver the verdict. You have heard the declaration of independence with its majestic ending, which is worthy to live forever, which has been hurled at the bones of a fossilized monarch, old King George the III, who has been dead these many years, and which will continue to be hurled at him annually as long as this republic lives. You have heard the history of the nation from the first to the last–from the beginning of the revolutionary was, past the days of its great general, Grant, told in eloquent language by the orator of the day. All I have to do is to add the verdict, which is all that can be added, and that is, ‘It is a successful day.’ I thank the officers of the day that I am enabled to once more stand face to face with the citizens that I met thirty years ago, when I was a citizen of Iowa, and also those of a later generation. In the address to-day, I have not heard much mention made of the progress of these last few years–of the telegraph, telephone, phonograph, and other great inventions. A poet has said, ‘Better fifty years of England than all the cycles of Cathay,’ but I say ‘Better this decade than the 900 years of Methuselah.’ There is more done in one year now than Methuselah ever saw in all his life. He was probably asleep all those 900 years. When I was here thirty years ago there were 3,000 people here and they drank 3,000 barrels of whisky a day, and they drank it in public then. I know that the man who makes the last speech on an occasion like this has the best of the other speakers, as he has the last word to say, which falls like a balm on the audience–though this audience has not been bored to-day–and though I can’t say that last word, I will do the next best thing I can, and that is to sit down.”.for my part i would like everyone to know as a true fact that on this day on the south east corner of 9th ave. and 42nd st. innew york city for $1.07 there is a storefront grill where can be had2 eggs, any style, 2 slices of toast, hash browns, a plastic fork,napkins and condiments. shockingly sweet pricing and don’t thinkthe homeless, regulars, and other locals don’t love it. how theydo it i guess i’ll never know. volume? as tom waits said…”turn up the volume”…and this …..July 4th and religion according to Mark TwainJune 27, 3:18 PM.Samuel Clemens despised the celebration of patriotism and religion of his day. His “As Regards Patriotism” written around 1900 was not published until 1928. If it had been published earlier, he could have been branded a traitor. Among the many things he said are: “Patriotism is merely a religion — love of country, worship of country, devotion to the country’s flag and honor and welfare.”In absolute monarchies it is furnished from the Throne, cut and dried, to the subject; in England and America it is furnished, cut and dried, to the citizen by the politician and the newspaper.”"The business aspects of the Fourth of July is not perfect as it stands. See what it costs us every year with loss of life, the crippling of thousands with its fireworks, and the burning down of property. It is not only sacred to patriotism and universal freedom, but to the surgeon, the undertaker, the insurance offices – and they are working it for all it is worth.”- Speech, July 4, 1899, “The Day We Celebrate”Twain was equally no less inhospitable to religion than to patriotism. He saw both as adopted mindlessly:”In religion and politics people’s beliefs and convictions are in almost every case gotten at second-hand, and without examination, from authorities who have not themselves examined the questions at issue but have taken them at second-hand from other non-examiners, whose opinions about them were not worth a brass farthing.” – Autobiography of Mark TwainSo much blood has been shed by the Church because of an omission from the Gospel: “Ye shall be indifferent as to what your neighbor’s religion is.” Not merely tolerant of it, but indifferent to it. Divinity is claimed for many religions; but no religion is great enough or divine enough to add that new law to its code.- Mark Twain, a Biography”Man is a Religious Animal. He is the only Religious Animal. He is the only animal that has the True Religion–several of them. He is the only animal that loves his neighbor as himself and cuts his throat if his theology isn’t straight. He has made a graveyard of the globe in trying his honest best to smooth his brother’s path to happiness and heaven….The higher animals have no religion. And we are told that they are going to be left out in the Hereafter. I wonder why? It seems questionable taste.” – “The Lowest Animal”"I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.” – Mark Twain in EruptionIn this posting you are spared the many quotations about the Bible According to Mark Twain, but two more quotations selected from many others about religion, reveal Samuel Clemens was a resigned to keeping religion in its place—one that comforted the average person and conformed to not taking it too seriously:”Religion consists in a set of things which the average man thinks he believes, and wishes he was certain.”- Notebook, 1879″You never see any of us Presbyterians getting in a sweat about religion and trying to massacre the neighbors.”-”The New Wildcat Religion”Author: William Gorden.As Regards ‘Patriotism’by Mark TwainIn the beginning of a change, the patriot is a scarce man, and brave, and hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a patriot.Mark Twain’s Notebook, 1905IT IS AGREED, in this country, that if a man can arrange his religion so that it perfectly satisfies his conscience, it is not incumbent upon him to care whether the arrangement is satisfactory to anyone else or not.In Austria and some other countries this is not the case. There the state arranges a man’s religion for him, he has no voice in it himself.Patriotism is merely a religion — love of country, worship of country, devotion to the country’s flag and honor and welfare.In absolute monarchies it is furnished from the throne, cut and dried, to the subject; in England and America it is furnished, cut and dried, to the citizen by the politician and the newspaper.The newspaper-and-politician-manufactured patriot often gags in private over his dose; but he takes it, and keeps it on his stomach the best he can. Blessed are the meek.Sometimes, in the beginning of an insane shabby political upheaval, he is strongly moved to revolt, but he doesn’t do it — he knows better. He knows that his maker would find out — the maker of his patriotism, the windy and incoherent six-dollar subeditor of his village newspaper — and would bray out in print and call him a traitor. And how dreadful that would be. It makes him tuck his tail between his legs and shiver. We all know — the reader knows it quite well — that two or three years ago nine-tenths of the human tails in England and America performed just that act. Which is to say, nine-tenths of the patriots in England and America turned traitor to keep from being called traitor. Isn’t it true? You know it to be true. Isn’t it curious?Yet it was not a thing to be very seriously ashamed of. A man can seldom — very, very seldom — fight a winning fight against his training; the odds are too heavy. For many a year — perhaps always — the training of the two nations had been dead against independence in political thought, persistently inhospitable toward patriotism manufactured on a man’s own premises, patriotism reasoned out in the man’s own head and fire-assayed and tested and proved in his own conscience. The resulting patriotism was a shopworn product procured at second hand. The patriot did not know just how or when or where he got his opinions, neither did he care, so long as he was with what seemed the majority — which was the main thing, the safe thing, the comfortable thing. Does the reader believe he knows three men who have actual reasons for their pattern of patriotism — and can furnish them? Let him not examine, unless he wants to be disappointed. He will be likely to find that his men got their patriotism at the public trough, and had no hand in its preparation themselves.Training does wonderful things. It moved the people of this country to oppose the Mexican War; then moved them to fall in with what they supposed was the opinion of the majority — majority patriotism is the customary patriotism — and go down there and fight. Before the Civil War it made the North indifferent to slavery and friendly to the slave interest; in that interest it made Massachusetts hostile to the American flag, and she would not allow it to be hoisted on her State house — in her eyes it was the flag of a faction. Then by and by, training swung Massachusetts the other way, and she went raging South to fight under that very flag and against that aforetime protected interest of hers.There is nothing that training cannot do. Nothing is above its reach or below it. It can turn bad morals to good, good morals to bad; it can destroy principles, it can recreate them; it can debase angels to men and lift men to angelship. And it can do any one of these miracles in a year — even in six months.Then men can be trained to manufacture their own patriotism. They can be trained to labor it out in their own heads and hearts and in the privacy and independence of their own premises. It can train them to stop taking it by command, as the Austrian takes his religion. “……………………………..it is getting dark and the explosions (fireworks) will increase. but here,in celebration and beauty, for the children.

@Guest 67. I like paying attention and I’m not here for fans. Don’t read them if you wish not gather different insight into the various issues concerning our country. I had not posted for over 2 days, even though NO JOBS is an interesting focus of mine and was glad DR Roubini finally addressed the impact of NO JOBS on the problems we are facing. Felt it better to verify some data… today was holiday and I had the time to post what I view and in my opinion some intersting articles and insight. Are you a doctor that can determine if some one needs any sort of help? Why dont you post some of your own observations isntead of critizing someone. Again don’t read them if thats your choice. Hope you make lots of $$ monday shorting whatever you choose, I suspect you don’t do that well…

Thank you for the kind words, it stinks watching and hearing and reading and seeing the hurt that is occuring for all those losing thier jobs or out of work, espcially knowing it is entirely driven by greed and deception. When is enough, enough?

i,i might just best leave your comment stand….but i will add..the price is always too high, that is why it is calledJustice. if it was cheap it would just be administration.i think we are running into cycles here that overlapbut are at different frequencies, as in harmonics.there is the long term and the short term and the immediate. all phases of justice of some sort.so it is a musical question, no?the problem with the modern age is the timing as we havelost the beat, oooooor are out of time. not doingjustice to the tones and manifest timbres.there are those who insist on racing ahead and makinga mess of the music in these modern times. they need totake their gear pack up and leave before we lose it all.imho.

Me want my Oxycontin.

g,you have given me mirth with a reverberating ( 4th,july)case of guest envy. i will consider also becomingthat ethereal guest. i think it is is in my mitochondria.

Would you have us go to the casino and only be able to bet on the black? What is evil about betting against CNBC, Bloomberg and their shills who have tricked countless people into betting their life savings in the stock market? Why is it more evil to short than to margin oneself to the hilt and bet on the black, a stock market that appeared to be going from strength to strength, purely based on the foolishness of the punters?Peoples pensions have been impacted by the same force that inflated the bubble in housing: their personal greed. To much is written on this blog about the blame game. How about a little more about people taking responsibility for themselves?

I must support Guest67 above. It is anyone’s right to short a stock and judging by MM CA’s comments I would guess that she only has a very rudimentary understanding of capital markets if she believes shorting is “evil”. Further, various investment funds allow short sales that actually benefit millions of Americans, another clear oversight.Crowding out can discourage other posters by dominating the message. My advice MM CA is to limit your posts to well thought out messages or themes and post when relevant- rather than being a broadcaster of data. Posts are then more meaningful.Of late we here have lost the wide and rather varied contributions seen over the last couple of years and the hope should be to encourage other “voices” to contribute.

I am not sure how many arms and legs to put into this tar baby (shorting: good or bad for business?)It seems that if someone doesn’t think a business is worth as much as the stock market (ticker price) suggests, then he can simply sell it. This to me is the purest, simplest form of investing.The minute you allow shorting into the market, you are adding volatility as a sort of a derivative or wagering component to the stock market. You are not investing in a company or deciding to withdraw your investment from that company, rather you are wagering that the price will go down. I get lost in the definitions such as naked shorting but my understanding is that it allows the gambler to bet that the share price will go down, when he may not even own any of the stock to begin with.To me, the ability to short stock is the the gray zone between investing vs gambling. In view of the turmoil and complexity in the financial markets and what has resulted is justification to eliminate shorting. Yes, I know about the argument that it allows investors to keep companies honest and clean the dead wood out, but it spawns a whole new backlash in the form of covering of shorts which is hedging a bet.It seems that those who advocate shorts are those who are financially sophisticated, and whose job is simply to make money. Me, I have a real job that falls under the category of a productive member of society be it a builder, farmer, trucker, healer, cleaner, protector, waiter, and I don’t have the time to focus all my life energy into being a clever creature of the finance industry. I better stop now, because my blood is starting to boil just thinking about all these apex parasites the average citizen is having to support.I therefore agree with MM CA.

The government is “us.” The corporations are their own entities, masquerading as members of “us.”I’m about as far from being a supporter of government that you’re like to find (at least on this board).Mark

LOL! Thanks for the chuckle! Mark

If you weren’t so frothy about the “Dems” you’d see that your beloved “GOP” has been doing the same thing (setting the game up for the Dems).Party hacks are inherently blind…Mark

I dont gamble and never have, I invest based on research. I was not regluar poster until last year when this debacle started and i knew and could sense it would be bad, although I have been a subsciber to RGE since around 2001. His advice and understanding of capital and financial markets as well as world economies led me to stay primarily invested in foreign equites, specifically Asian and South American and like most who were in those markets I did quite well through Feb 2008. finally went out 100% in june of 2008 based a lot on DR Roubini’s analysis and before everything blew up. As for pensions, most pensioners have no clue how their pension money is invested. My companies pension fund is presnently underfunded to the tune of about 6 Billion now…and there probaby isn’t 500 employees out of over 100k that knwo that and there are plenty of other Fortune 500 company pensions in the same boat… So when that bubble bursts, is it the poor worker/s who worked 15, 20, 30 , 35 years thinking he or she has a guaranteed pension and everyone running his or her pension was doing the right thing and not gambling with thier hard earned pension? Gambling, betting, speculating is for Vegas and casinos and nothign else.

one more comment on this, Bernie Madoff… is it 60 billion, 120 billion? one thing i know is where there is smoke there is fire… there are plenty more where he came from and they all dont just reside in the big firms like GS, MS, Big banks… so in this unprecedented time of greed and corruption and the theft of average american wealth why would anyone trust the stock market. so unless it is cleaned up and confidence restored, it is one big Casino. I agree with guest67 on his cynicism about the alphabet soup networks like CNBC and all the other hawkers, advisors of the stock market, they are useless…….Saw the fireworks a little while ago and made me think that after about 50 years here now and having never seen this country in the bad shape it is now, what it will be like in the future especially for all our kids and future generations…

MM CA, I agree that naked short selling is bad, but not short selling in general. Markets don’t always go up and for those who do need to get by using markets (given the sorry state of 401Ks, pensions, and the like) it is one of the only ways to try to win back what was lost through no fault of one’s own. We are in a protracted bear market that could last several years. You don’t even have to be an expert short seller to profit from short selling–just buy an inverse ETF on a popular index like the S&P. You can use that to hedge your portfolio, a totally conservative and responsible thing to do. Of course, short selling is not for everyone and people should do their own due diligence. But can it really be any worse than buy and hold at this point? The first rule of investing is not to lose money–I know lots of smart but naive people who can’t abandon buy and hold, even though they lost 80 or 90%! Short sellers are always at risk that the market will go up, so it’s not like they have a free ride. They also perform the useful function of helping to keep markets liquid. However, I do believe in the uptick rule.That said, most people should leave their money in cash or buy TIPs. Stay away from stocks–the learning curve is too steep! And that includes staying away from managed money, such as mutual funds, and sell-side advisors as well. “Experts” in this area don’t exist, are for the birds, are cons,…

The Fed changed the way the auction results are reported last month to aggregate domestic indirect purchasers (who used to get bulked in with the Primary Dealers) with the foreign indirect purchasers (who used to be understood to be foreign central banks). With the new reporting format, it is impossible to see how much buying interest is foreign central banks and how much is Fed-supported domestic intervention through indirect purchasers sucking the Fed teat (PIMCO, Blackrock, etc.).My gut tells me that there wasn’t as much foreign central bank appetite for the recent auctions as the Fed wants you to believe.

Apropos whether foreign governments are buying U.S. treasuries or not.Earlier in this thread…

Foreign governments were the largest buyers of Treasury auctions in the last month, if the Fed`s info is believable. Seems to fly in the face of everything we read. They seem to talk one game and play another.Hide reply Reply to this comment By Guest on 2009-07-04 19:14:35The Fed changed the way the auction results are reported last month to aggregate domestic indirect purchasers (who used to get bulked in with the Primary Dealers) with the foreign indirect purchasers (who used to be understood to be foreign central banks). With the new reporting format, it is impossible to see how much buying interest is foreign central banks and how much is Fed-supported domestic intervention through indirect purchasers sucking the Fed teat (PIMCO, Blackrock, etc.).My gut tells me that there wasn’t as much foreign central bank appetite for the recent auctions as the Fed wants you to believe.Reply to this comment By Anonymous on 2009-07-05 02:48:57

Some time ago there was an article in one of the on-line news sources about how the Singapore government was going to buy U.S. dollars. But all of the ‘supporting statements’ quoted in the article came from people who worked at some of the various banks here in Singapore. The government was not saying that they were buying this or that.So I suspect that sometimes the purchases are not made by the foreign governments. Rather it can well be by the foreign branches of the U.S. banks. For example Citibank is very big here in Singapore, and other western banks (Barclays, Credit Suisse, etc) have a rather large presense as well. So if they wanted to play some political game to e.g. support their homeland currency while making it look like the purchase came from abroad, they could well do so.

Thanks for the insight.

Hubbs, MM CA,EXCESSIVE GREED is the operative “word” in our time. A certain amount of Greed seems okay in a right balance. But like Hubbs points out when the market place turns investing into a Casino through naked short selling, derivatives, and all this other “edge” giving crap – then you know that when the public also buys into this crap they too have been corrupted by EXCESSIVE GREED! It is no longer investing but trying to figure out how to game the system.Time to take responsibility for one’s actions folks. We are hurting each other with this Ponzi scheme. Madoff is the only “honest” criminal out there – he confessed. Of course he had a rather high threshold to reach before he felt a sense of “conscience.”

IMO the sorry state of pensions, 401k’s, annuities are due to people’s ignorance by way of just how complicated the investing system is in this country. They relied or rely on “professional managers” to figure it out for them. Guess what, that now seems to have not worked so well the past 20 or so years. Consider what has happened:1. 401k’s in general have lost 30-50% of their past values.2. As companies and investment firms told people 401′ks were the place to put your money the past 20 years, they slowly started eliminating traditional pension funds to where now only about 20% of companies offer any pension fund and most of them are driven and exist by union negotiated contracts.3. Existing pension funds managed by the “the professionals” are now under funded by upwards of 1 Trillion dollars according to most estimates. Who will take that hit? IMO the average Joe American.4. While the country was on verge of financial collapse last fall because of all the exotic instruments and new ways of investing were blowing up in the faces of the “professional managers” what was done stop it? Basically nothing other than injecting Trillions of dollars to the institutions who allowed it all to happen.5. Consider that Citi and GM were being shorted for months until both companies stocks were driven to a $1.00 each and finally GM going bankrupt. But on the way down to a $1.00, pension funds, annuities and 401k’s took the hit as both companies were part of the DOW 30. All the “professional mangers” did nothing to protect average Joe American as this happened. They let average Joe American take the hit. I will not defend either company, they were mismanaged for years, they accumulated billions in debt (GM lost 200 Billion in the past 10 years or so, Citi’s balance sheet of toxic crap is probably close to 1 trillion- they both have taken almost 100 billion in bailout money the past 6 months- average Joe American’s tax dollars). Each had/has horrible balance sheets. Why didn’t the “professional managers” pull out long ago? Because average Joe American wasn’t telling to do so and if loses were going to come, average Joe American would just accept it and bear it6. So here we are now and GM is bankrupt, their stock worthless, every pension, 401k and annuity has a share in the loss and there is not one thing average Joe American can do it about it. The bond holders and debt holders are settling for 30 or cents on the dollar. Who is taking all those loses? Average Joe American IMO and why? Because the “professional managers” and the PTB say so. And GM has the gall to announce they will IPO in early 2010. Now who will buy those shares? Not average Joe, but the professional managers who manage average Joe Americans pension fund and 401k fund. So how long before the new GM stock starts getting shorted again?7. Citi bank raised about 30 Billion recently because Giethner and the FED told them to do so due to the stress test results. Now who invested that money, bought those shares? Average Joe American pension and 401k funds. Anyone Think average Joe American had a clue that the “professional mangers” working on their behalf with what money they have left in their accounts knew they were yet again buying shares of Citi. I can guarantee you there were not many average Joe Americans going out and buying shares of Citi the past 2 months because they think the stock will do well. Eventually sometime soon the shorters will finally kill off Citi and not because of toxic assets and bad balance sheets, but because they can make a fortune doing so. Average Joe American has no say and quite frankly is more worried these days about keeping his or her job or finding one.Those are just two examples. There are many other companies with horrific balance sheets and mountains of debt. There are still some good companies, albeit not many these days.We could go on and on about what has happened, bottom line is I take offense when people blame average Joe American as the reason this all happened. They share some of the blame for not being able to understand the concept of saving, being smart, over spending at times. The majority of blame though goes to the current system, the “professional mangers” the investment firms, the mortgage companies, the Big Banks, the parasite leadership at the corporate levels, the Gov’t. The people in charge so to speak let it happen, not the 300 million underlings. They made the mortgage loans wit zero down, zero interest, no income verification they mailed the 50 offers a week for $30,000.00 credit lines, and they did the zero down, zero interest car loans… They created one big Ponzi scheme that has blown up in their face and now are “trying” to stick it to Average Joe American. It remains to be seen whether they will get away it this time around. They never factored in the power of the internet, bloggers, people like of all us who read and contribute on sites like this. The internet got Obamas elected and it very well may allow Average Joe American to now have say and be more informed than ever. There are 30 million adult Americans on the internet using it to assist them in looking for jobs, but you can be rest assured they are learning things too about how this country, its economy and the PTB are running things and I am sure average Joe American is not too happy these days.So if anyone thinks there are any average Joe Americans rushing out to buy GM stock next year or Citi stock now guess again. The stock market is becoming irrelevant. The question is what they are planning next to fleece average Joe American.As I mentioned above the TOTAL Value of the stock market is about 9 Trillion currently, and had been as low as under 8 trillion in March 09. That is about 75% of our current national debt. It is about 15% of our total unfunded national debt when SS and Medicare are factored in. It used to be the other way around. As recently as late 2002 the Stock market value was about 2.5 times greater than our national debt (2002 6.2T) and about 45% of our unfunded liability/debt. If and when the stocks start down again the spread will get larger and the markets will become irrelevant. IMO the system is broke beyond repair, when just even one form of trading restriction is fought so hard not to change.One question for everyone? how can companies like GS, MS, and others be on pace for record profits this year when average Joe pensions and 401k’s are imploding if not downright going under in value.As my parents have said to me the past year, we have always stayed in cash and CD’s. We were happy with 3-7% interest and dividends over the past 30 years and we SAVED. And now we have enough money to live out our years, 2 houses paid for in cash, 1 brand new one, and most of our friends and their annuities and stock funds they invested in are broke or in serious financial hardship.Go Roddick! 1-1 6-6 in third

When do commentors believe inflation (default) will begin to kick in?What impact will the Iraqi (112 – 115 billion barrels – 2nd only to Saudi) reserves have on situation??an interesting result of the current dollar (petrodollar) situationYear 2003: “Iraquis will never accept this sellout to the Oil Co’s”http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2007/jan/16/comment.iraqYear 2009: looks like the Brits are getting bailed out!http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jun/30/bp-oil-contract-exploration-iraqand it is all about the dollar!http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/oil-rush-scramble-for-iraqs-wealth-1711570.htmlWhen the price of oil unexpectedly collapsed – though it has risen again in the past few months – the Iraqi government found itself broke. Its revenues are being swallowed up by the higher salaries, the rationing system and recurrent costs.ANY THOUGHTS ARE GREATLY APPRECIATED

Safe travels, PJB. Glad you can check in once in a while, and we do expect a full report when you get back home, wherever that may be.

When one has repeating wet dreams of creating Bamelot like Obi does, one soon finds out that dreams and reality are two different things. Thus Obi continues his sad journey towards the realization of his dire omen, that was foretold by his choice of MUSE, Abe Lincoln.The truly horrible times lie ahead. Expect humanities misery index to increase substantially – mileage will vary as PJB notes – fat cats may not feel the speed bumps. Unless they find their “conscience” by observing the cries of others.

PeterJB! You’re in touch! Gone walkabout! Joy in the morning! it’s good to hear that “ho hum” again punctuating those searing remarks that cut through the pith and root of failed leadership, that stir the restless malaise into political action. “God forbid we should ever be twenty years without such a rebellion (Jefferson).”Fourth of July felicitations from America the currently uninhabitable, “the land of the flea and the home of the knave.” It was only two hundred years ago that Thomas Jefferson recognized in his 1st Inaugural the revolutionary character upon which America was founded . Would that those same fires be stirred again:”The essential principles of our Government… form the bright constellation which has gone before us and guided our steps through an age of revolution and reformation. The wisdom of our sages and blood of our heroes have been devoted to their attainment. They should be the creed of our political faith, the text of civic instruction, the touchstone by which to try the services of those we trust; and should we wander from them in moments of error or of alarm, let us hasten to retrace our steps and to regain the road which alone leads to peace, liberty and safety.” –1st Inaugural Address, 1801.

http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2009/07/05/magazine/20090705-gilded-slideshow_index.htmlRuins of the Second Gilded Age

In spite of whatever legitimate criticism may be leveled at the Obama Administration with respect to its economic perception and prognostication, or to any lack of efficacy in its response, I shudder to think what the reaction to the current crisis would have been had John McCain been elected. His illustrious advisors on the economy included, among other infamous notables: Phil Gramm, who led the charge for much of the deregulation of the financial system that put us in this mess, and in the early months of the downturn, described the United States as a “nation of whiners” and said that we were in a “mental recession;” Kevin Hassett, who wrote the fantasy book “Dow 36000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market in 1999,” predicting that the Dow would hit 36,000 within five years; Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of HP who left the company with a severance package of more than $20 million after she resigned in a dispute with the Board over her management; and Arthur Laffer, the originator of the Laffer curve, representing the now generally discredited economic view that government revenue increases when tax rates are lowered.As Dr. Roubini reminds us on a regular basis, the condition of the economy would have been much worse without the monetary and fiscal response, even while he acknowledges the shortcomings of that response. There is certainly a lot more the Obama team could have done to alleviate the crisis — e.g., in my view, infrastructure spending should have been a much larger component of the monies committed to the fiscal stimulus package, the government should have been more aggressive in taking an equity stake in some banks and in its triage efforts, and efforts to restore some balance to consumer finance and bankruptcy law, such as capping usury rates federally and giving bankruptcy judges cramdown authority over first mortgages) should have been more far-reaching commenced earlier — but all in all, what they’ve done likely beats what we would have seen otherwise.SWK

Don’t forget this additional corporate metric…insiders are selling like crazy. They see the true trend.The Bush administration got us here by being insanely driven by their ideology – facts be damned. Now, we have traded one set of ideologies for another, which look to be every bit as disastrious for America.Always an independent, I found myself voting more often with the dummycrats for self protection. The right-wing nuts scared me too much, and I considered the Dems to be the lesser of 2 evils. Both are corrupt, but the GOP was much more sophisticated and eficient at stealing. Not any more. The dems have caught up (probably because lobbyists have educated them), plus, they don’t seem have a clue about how things actually work in the real world.Independent Contractor

So we are to just accpet they keep making mistakes. McCain did’nt win and is old history. Obama is at the helm and he needs to grow some balls and fix things. His pitchman status for the gov’t is wearing thin. Your ideas are sound and a start, but I see nothing like that happening.

The real fight going on is who takes the hit for the 40-50 Trillion underfunded Medicare probelm coming our way in a few short years. Whatever they do now lays the groundwork for that. And in the end it will be the taxpayers and not the corporate insurers and providors or Wall street. So Bend over America, the biggest pole is yet to come your way.

Earnings Drop Worldwide as Job Losses Hurt ConsumersJuly 6 (Bloomberg) — Earnings at such companies as Ford Motor Co. and ArcelorMittal may continue to decline in the next three months as the highest unemployment in a quarter-century keeps consumers from spending.The year-over-year profit slide for Standard & Poor’s 500 Index members may narrow to 21 percent from July through September, after declines of an estimated 34 percent in the second quarter and about 60 percent in the year’s first three months, according to data compiled by S&P and Bloomberg. Earnings may rise by year-end based on comparisons to late 2008, which was roiled by the meltdown in financial markets.Consumers in the U.S., the world’s largest economy, remain concerned about jobs after unemployment reached a 26-year high in June, analysts and investors said. Until Americans start spending again on cars, cell phones and clothes, most U.S., Asian and European companies may keep squeezing out costs.“So long as unemployment keeps rising, the consumer will continue to be very conservative,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps manage $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama. “Any improvement will come from cost cutting, and that’s not sustainable. If you have no anticipation of top-line growth — it will be a little tougher to generate that enthusiasm into the fourth quarter.”Consumer ConfidenceU.S. consumer confidence slipped unexpectedly in June, reflecting unemployment that rose to 9.5 percent and wealth destruction triggered partly by a drop in property values. U.S. employers slashed 467,000 jobs last month, and about 6 million jobs have been eliminated since the recession began in December 2007. June’s jobless rate was the highest since August 1983.Almost 67 percent of S&P 500 members topped analysts’ estimates for first-quarter earnings after eliminating jobs and closing plants, Bloomberg data shows. That helped the S&P 500 index rally 15 percent in the second quarter, the most since 1998.The benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 28 percent in the quarter, the largest gain since the gauge started in 1988, while Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index rose 17 percent, the biggest advance since 1999.The second-quarter earnings barrage begins in the U.S. on July 8 with aluminum producer Alcoa Inc., the first member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to report results.Alcoa is based in New York.‘What’s Your Potential?’“The analysts will probably lowball things once again and the companies will be able to jump over it again,” said Charles Smith, chief investment officer for Fort Pitt Capital Group Inc. The Cleveland-based firm has $800 million assets under management. “If the teacher expected you to get a “C-” and you get a ‘C,’ then the question is: what’s your potential as a student?”Railcar shipments and other U.S. shipping data provide scant hope that manufacturers are gearing up for increased demand, said Mark Demos, a Minneapolis-based portfolio manager who helps manage $21 billion at Fifth Third Asset Management. Railcar shipments are down 19 percent so far this year and 18 percent in the week ended June 20.Demand is best described by the title of the 1966 novel, “Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up to Me,” said Andrew Bartels, an analyst at Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Forrester Research Inc. Technology purchases in the U.S. will decline 5.1 percent this year, with a recovery in the fourth quarter, he said in a report last month.Slow Profit GrowthMountain View, California-based Google Inc., the biggest Internet advertising company, may post its second-slowest rate of profit growth since selling shares to the public. Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt said June 30 the economy is bottoming and will be better in a month.Microsoft Corp., based in Redmond, Washington, may report its second straight sales drop, according to a Bloomberg survey of 22 analysts. Prior to the quarter ended in March, sales at the world’s largest software maker had never declined.Mobile-phone users are trading down toward lower-priced phone plans that don’t require buying a new handset, said Andreas Mark, a Frankfurt-based fund manager at Union Investment GmbH with about 30 billion euros ($42 billion) of equity assets under management.Espoo, Finland-based Nokia Oyj, the world’s biggest handset maker, may report a 67 percent slide in net income, analysts estimate, as customers concerned about losing their jobs postponed phone upgrades.“Companies are laying off people and not hiring them back,” said Roger Kubarych, chief U.S. economist at Unicredit Global Research in New York, who forecast payrolls would decline by 450,000. “This leaves us with a weak, irregular recovery.”Rising unemployment in Europe is trimming as much as 10 percent of industry sales, said Amsterdam-based Simon van Veen, who helps manage a global portfolio of 2.2 billion euros at the Fortis Global High Income Equity Fund.‘Sluggish’ Consumer Spending“The outlook for electronics companies isn’t clearing,” said Tetsuro Ii, president of Commons Asset Management Inc. in Tokyo. “Consumer spending continues to be sluggish in the U.S. and elsewhere, pressuring prices.”Global sales still will bolster results at U.S. multinational companies, said Michael Williams, managing director of New York-based Genesis Asset Management, which has assets of about $2 billion. “The struggling U.S. consumer will be more than offset by the massive number of people in China, Brazil, Russia and India that are moving up the consumption ladder,” he said.Chinese Economic GrowthChina’s Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed for a fourth month in June, the latest sign the country’s 4-trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus is reviving its economy. China’s economy is forecast to grow 7.8 percent this year, according to a Bloomberg survey. That compares with a decline of 2.7 percent in the U.S. and 4.3 percent in Europe’s 16-nation euro zone.PetroChina Co., the world’s largest company by market value, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec, may post increased second-quarter profit after oil prices rebounded from December lows and China’s economy grew, said Gordon Kwan, head of energy research at Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong.Second-quarter earnings at Exxon Mobil, Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips, the largest U.S. oil companies, probably fell after the recession sapped fuel demand, causing crude-oil prices to drop by half from the record set last July.At Irving, Texas-based Exxon Mobil, net income may drop 64 percent from a year earlier to $4.21 billion, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The profit would be the company’s smallest for any quarter since 2003.‘Excess Production’“There’s a lot of excess production and not that much demand,” said Barry R. James, who holds Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips shares among the almost $2 billion in investments he manages at the James Advantage Funds in Dayton, Ohio. “We don’t see much of a recovery.”Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co., Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s three largest automakers, will likely post losses in the three months ended June 30 because of the lower demand in the U.S., traditionally their most profitable market, according to three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Honda and Nissan are based in Tokyo, and Toyota in Aichi prefecture in central Japan.“The numbers will look really ugly,” said Mamoru Kato, an analyst at Tokai Tokyo Research Center in Nagoya, who expects Toyota to post a loss comparable to the 766 billion yen ($8 billion) loss in the quarter ended in March.Ford Motor Co., the only major U.S. automaker that hasn’t filed bankruptcy, is gaining market share from its distressed domestic rivals, said Brian Johnson, a Chicago-based auto analyst for Barclays Capital.No One ‘Sneering Anymore’Ford, based in Dearborn, Michigan, is boosting third- quarter output 16 percent to meet rising demand. Detroit-based General Motors Corp., which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection June 1, is selling controlling interest in its European operations. Chrysler LLC, which filed Chapter 11 on April 30, has emerged from bankruptcy as Chrysler Group LLC, 20 percent owned by Italy’s Fiat SpA.“People used to sneer at me for owning Ford, but no one is sneering anymore,” said Bernie McGinn, president of McGinn Investment Management of Alexandria, Virginia, which owns about 300,000 Ford shares. “The market is rewarding them for not going to the government to get money.”Ford, which had a 33 percent decline in U.S. auto sales through June, may lose $718.3 million in the second quarter, an improvement from an $8.7 billion loss a year earlier, according to the mean estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.U.S. Air CarriersThe nine biggest U.S. air carriers, including Delta Air Lines Inc., American Airlines parent AMR Corp. and United Airlines parent UAL Corp., may have a combined quarterly loss of $1 billion, estimated Michael Derchin, an analyst at FTN Equity Capital in New York. Derchin said he previously expected a $600 million loss. AMR is headquartered in Forth Worth, Texas, and UAL in Chicago.Delta, based in Atlanta, and American Airlines both plan to trim additional flights when the peak travel season ends after the Labor Day holiday. U.S. carriers have eliminated 31,700 jobs and parked more than 500 jets since the start of 2008 as air travel plummeted amid job losses and tighter credit.Large banks in general will report lower earnings than in the first quarter, though analysts said companies such as Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America Corp. and New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will still post profits. Credit losses will offset some gains in trading and underwriting, said Rochdale Securities LLC analyst Richard Bove.‘Difficult to Decipher’“You’re going to get a quarter that is going to be very difficult to decipher,” Bove said. “If people look at operating earnings, they’re going to be tremendously pleased with everything associated with the capital markets area, but you also have these losses in the retail banking area.”Earnings per share will likely decline as many banks sold shares, including Bank of America’s $13.5 billion total, after the government’s stress tests determined 10 of the biggest lenders needed more capital to withstand a prolonged recession. The 19 largest lenders have announced plans to raise more than $100 billion since the stress tests were completed.In retail, discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., based in Bentonville, Arkansas, have fared better than higher-priced competitors.Luxury retailers such as Saks Inc. and Nordstrom Inc. have been among the hardest-hit by the slowdown in consumer spending, said Sarah Henry, an analyst with MFC Global Investment Management. “People are shopping for value, and Wal-Mart’s message is very resonant right now,” she said.Raw MaterialsSliding consumer demand from the retail sector to manufacturing has ultimately affected raw-materials providers, leaving producers of commodities such as aluminum and chemicals struggling to remain profitable.Steelmakers are grappling with prices that have yet to rebound after demand plunged the most since World War II. Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steelmaker, may report its third consecutive loss before returning to profit in the third quarter, analysts estimate.Melbourne, Australia-based BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, may report its first profit decline in nine years for the 12 months ended June 30, because of a drop in commodity prices, according to analyst estimates. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 materials has plunged 46 percent in 12 months.Dow Chemical Co., the largest U.S. chemical maker, may report a second-quarter loss and a 94 percent profit decline in the current quarter, according to analysts’ estimates, as falling demand for paints and plastics prompt the industry to shut factories. The Midland, Michigan-based company announced three plant closures and 2,500 job cuts on July 1.“There is no pricing power in chemicals,” Fifth Third’s Demos said. “That area is a disaster.”http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apzVRyR2Nbp0

“Any improvement will come from cost cutting, and that’s not sustainable. If you have no anticipation of top-line growth — it will be a little tougher to generate that enthusiasm into the fourth quarter.”the Devils are in the details of the Fortune 500 SEC filed 8K’s and 10K’s. there are also other filings by the big companies during each quarter. there is no growth and red ink abounds and cost cost cutting to save cash and serivce large amounts of debt are the order of the day for most. Cost cutting equals more NO JOBS! Comparisons to the last three quarters of 2008 should not hold much value, as 2008 sucked too… and one can only wonder what is ahppneing to small and medium size business, especially those that make things. The note on Dow Chemical above is onimous in that they provide goods to almost every company in exisistance.

The thing that saved Job in the end was his abiding faith in God. Unfortunately, too many people in recent years, whether believers, agnostics, or atheists, have been worshiping at the temple of mammon. I believe you are right, Morbid, that a long and painful lesson in humility is on its way for everyone.SWK

Check this out:Someone apparently stole Goldman’s program trading code:Reuters:http://blogs.reuters.com/commentaries/2009/07/05/a-goldman-trading-scandal/Zero Hedge:http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/is-case-of-quant-trading-industrial.html

what we read as news is not determined by that which has happened but by who the writers are

See my post bellow. I post “all day long” during the six months we stay in Argentina.I do my best to try and sense what the markets will hold as the truth in the near term (i.e., next couple of months). I try not to look to far ahead into the game as I don’t think you can make much money this way.As you may recall, from a copule of posts in mid-April, while already on the road I was bullish until then. In mid-April I turned lukewarm on the recovery. Now, I have turned bearish again ((perhaps a bit too early).

wouldn’t that last line sound better if it wereher economy a’ drownin

Stop your whining and become a part of the problem/solution … Climate Exchange Plc can be found at CLE.LSE or CXCHY.NOOIf you can’t beat them, join them.Further info:Shares In Issue / Top 10 HoldersShares in Issue – 47,412,111Shares not in public hands is 63%Top 10 Shareholdersas at 29 May 2009Invesco Asset Managment Limited 29.22%Directors and Related 19.00%Harbert Management Corporation (Institutional Group) 14.78%BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd 7.69%JP Morgan (Broker Group) 1.97%Moore Capital Management Inc 1.76%Goldman Sachs (Broker Group) 1.62%Fortis (Institutional Group) 1.52%Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board 1.48%Banc of America Securities 1.25%63% of the Company’s shares are not in public hands, these being held by Directors of the Company as follows (approved 1.04.09) and those of related parties (shareholders of 10%+ of ISC)Dr. R L Sandor 8,410,614 sharesN D Eckert 1,084,124 sharesC Brookins 16,252 sharesK Gierstner 37,000 sharesL Magnus 3,093 sharesB Williamson 500 sharesDirectors:Richard Sandor, ChairmanNeil Eckert, Chief Executive OfficerMatthew Whittell, Chief Financial OfficierCarole Brookins, Non Executive Director +*Klaus Gierstner, Non Executive Director *Sir Laurie Magnus, Non Executive Director +*Sir Brian Williamson, Non Executive DirectorAudit Committee +Remuneration Committee *Company Secretary:Philip Scales

Barack Hoover Obama: The Best and the Brightest Blow It AgainBarack Hoover Obama:The best and the brightest blow it againHarper’s Magazine- July 2009By Kevin BakerThree months into his presidency, Barack Obama has proven to be every bit as charismatic and intelligent as his most ardent supporters could have hoped. At home or abroad, he invariably appears to be the only adult in the room, the first American president in at least forty years to convey any gravitas. Even the most liberal of voters are finding it hard to believe they managed to elect this man to be their president.It is impossible not to wish desperately for his success as he tries to grapple with all that confronts him: a worldwide depression, catastrophic climate change, an unjust and inadequate health-care system, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the ongoing disgrace of Guant·namo, a floundering education system.Obama’s failure would be unthinkable. And yet the best indications now are that he will fail, because he will be unable—indeed he will refuse—to seize the radical moment at hand.Every instinct the president has honed, every voice he hears in Washington, every inclination of our political culture urges incrementalism, urges deliberation, if any significant change is to be brought about. The trouble is that we are at one of those rare moments in history when the radical becomes pragmatic, when deliberation and compromise foster disaster. The question is not what can be done but what must be done.We have confronted such emergencies only a few times before in the history of the Republic: during the secession crisis of 1860–61, at the start of World War II, at the outset of the Cold War and the nuclear age. Probably the moment most comparable to the present was the start of the Great Depression, and for the scope and the quantity of the problems he is facing, Obama has frequently been compared with Franklin Roosevelt. So far, though, he most resembles the other president who had to confront that crisis, Herbert Hoover.The comparison is not meant to be flippant. It has nothing to do with the received image of Hoover, the dour, round-collared, gerbil-cheeked technocrat who looked on with indifference while the country went to pieces. To understand how dire our situation is now it is necessary to remember that when he was elected president in 1928, Herbert Hoover was widely considered the most capable public figure in the country. Hoover—like Obama—was almost certainly someone gifted with more intelligence, a better education, and a greater range of life experience than FDR. And Hoover, through the first three years of the Depression, was also the man who comprehended better than anyone else what was happening and what needed to be done. And yet he failed.The story of the real Herbert Hoover reads like something out of an Indiana Jones script, with touches of Dickens and the memoirs of Albert Schweitzer. Orphaned and penniless by the age of nine, Hoover was raised by an exploitative uncle who considered him more chattel than son. He had no illusions about the America he grew up in, writing years later, “As gentle as are the memories of the times, I am not recommending a return to the good old days. Sadness was greater, and death came sooner.”Removed from public school at fourteen to work as his uncle’s office boy, Hoover nonetheless learned enough at night school to make the very first class at the newly opened Stanford University, where he studied geology and engineering. He paid his own way by working as a waiter, a typist, and a handyman, and eventually running a laundry service, a baggage service, and a newspaper route. (Unsurprisingly, his favorite book was David Copperfield.) After graduation, he ran mining camps and scouted new strikes around the globe. It was an adventurous life; on one occasion he made a small fortune by following an ancient Chinese map and tiger tracks into a moribund silver mine in Burma. By the time he was forty, Hoover was worth $85 million in today’s dollars, and he retired from business to take up public life. “The ideal of service,” he would later write, was no burden on the striving entrepreneur but a “great spiritual force poured out by our people as never before in the history of the world.”He had long lived up to his ideals. Caught in the siege of the Western delegations in Peking during the Boxer Rebellion of 1900, only Hoover and his fearless wife, Lou, cared enough to sneak food and water to the Chinese Christians besieged elsewhere in the city. He first came to national attention after the start of World War I, when he led the effort to feed the 7 million people of occupied Belgium and France. He worked for free, donated part of his own fortune to the cause, and risked his life repeatedly crossing the U-boat–infested waters of the North Atlantic. His postwar relief efforts rescued millions more throughout Europe and especially in the Soviet Union; it’s unlikely that any other individual in human history saved so many people from death by starvation and want. Questioned about feeding populations under Bolshevik control, he banged a table and insisted, “Twenty million people are starving. Whatever their politics, they shall be fed!” In 1920, many people in both major parties wanted to run him for president, but he opted for the Republican cabinet. As secretary of commerce under Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge, he was a dynamic figure, tirelessly promoting new technologies, work-safety rules, and voluntary industry standards; he supervised relief to Mississippi and Louisiana during the terrible 1927 floods and advocated cooperation between labor and management.“We had summoned a great engineer to solve our problems for us; now we sat back comfortably and confidently to watch the problems being solved,” the journalist Anne O’Hare McCormick wrote of Hoover’s inauguration in March 1929, in words that might easily have been used in January 2009. “Almost with the air of giving genius its chance, we waited for the performance to begin.”Genius got its chance less than eight months after Hoover was sworn in, when the stock market collapsed. At the time, such an event wasn’t seen as having anything much to do with the president. Wall Street crashes happened every five to ten years in the old American economy, and it was understood that these crashes would sometimes start nationwide recessions. They might last a year or two, like the recession that started in 1920, or for much longer, like the devastating depression that began in 1873 and, according to some economists, didn’t really end until 1897. How long would it take to recover from the crash of ‘29? Who could know? Mere politicians were supposed to leave the outcome to the workings of the market. But Hoover—much like Obama—plunged right in, with a response that was designed to rise above old ideological battles and effect a new partnership between the public and private sectors. Less than a month after the Wall Street crash, he began what would be weeks of meetings at the White House with hundreds of “key men” from the business world. There the president briefed them on everything he had done so far and urged them to cut as few jobs as possible for the duration of the slump. He also encouraged public and private construction projects, signed bills recognizing the right of unions to organize, and used the fledgling Federal Reserve both to ease credit and to discourage banks from calling in their stock-market loans.All of these projects were anathema to old-line conservatives in Hoover’s own party, such as Andrew Mellon, the tax-slashing secretary of the treasury throughout the go-go years of the 1920s boom, who offered the president the absurdist advice to let the market “liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.” Cutting one of the main ties to the trickle-down wisdom of what was suddenly a previous era, Hoover eventually shipped Mellon off to serve as ambassador to England.Yet there remained little immediate action that the president could take, hobbled as he was by the limits of a federal government that made up less than 4 percent of the GDP and by the reluctance of those around him to interfere in any way with the sanctity of the markets. At what John Kenneth Galbraith would later skewer as “no-business” meetings, the key men of industry pledged their full support, then went home to slash wages and cut as many jobs as they could. By the end of 1930, the gross national product had dropped by nearly 13 percent, unemployment had shot up to nearly 9 percent, and over 600 banks had closed. The Democrats won a majority in the House of Representatives, but the primary response to the Depression offered by their laconic speaker, “Cactus Jack” Garner, was a national sales tax designed to balance the budget. Liberal legislators in both parties were more sympathetic, but they wielded little power.As the Depression spread around the world, Hoover—like Obama—towered above the squabbling, suspicious leaders of Europe as well. Only Hoover, who had lived all around the world (like Obama) and also been part of the U.S. delegation at Versailles, seemed to understand the true threat the Depression posed to the global economy. Democratic forms of government were under assault everywhere in the West, and especially in the Weimar Republic, still staggering under the indemnity the victorious Allies had imposed on Germany in 1919. Hoover sought to alleviate the growing world credit crunch by pushing through a moratorium on the repayment of Europe’s considerable war debt to the United States—on the condition that the Allies also forgave Germany its indemnity. It was an example of statesmanship at its most enlightened, and if any single U.S. action at the time could have prevented the rise of the Nazis to power, this would have been it.Back on the domestic front, Hoover tried to organize national, voluntary efforts to hire the unemployed, provide charity, and create a private banking pool. When these efforts collapsed or fell short, he started a dozen Home Loan Discount Banks to help individuals refinance their mortgages and save their homes, and created an unprecedented government entity called the Reconstruction Finance Corporation. Authorized to spend up to the then-astonishing sum of $2 billion, the RFC was a direct rebuttal to Andrew Mellon’s prescription of creative destruction. Rather than liquidating banks, railroads, and agricultural cooperatives, the RFC would lend them money to stay afloat.Hoover, as the historian David M. Kennedy writes, had shown “himself capable of the most pragmatic, far-reaching, economic heterodoxy,” a trait that “would in the end carry him and the country into uncharted economic and political territory.” New Dealer Rexford Tugwell would, many years later, claim that “practically the whole New Deal was extrapolated from programs that Hoover started.” Indeed, “Hoover had wanted—and had said clearly enough that he wanted—nearly all the changes now brought under the New Deal label.”Tugwell’s appraisal, though considerably exaggerated, nonetheless testifies to the boldness of Hoover’s program. The only problem was that it did not work. The nation’s credit system still would not thaw, banks kept falling like dominoes, unemployment rates and human suffering continued to rise. For all of his willingness to break with precedent and intervene directly in the economy, Hoover remained unable to turn his back fully on what Kennedy describes as the prevailing “legacy of perception and understanding of economic theory.”As Europe faltered, for instance, foreign gold began to flow out of America’s banks and back home. Hoover reacted by increasing interest rates and raising taxes, in an effort to further deflate the economy, balance the federal budget, and thereby lure the gold back. This was the textbook economic response of the time to fleeing gold reserves; in the midst of the Great Depression, it was a disaster.Meanwhile, the RFC was derided by populist critics as “bank relief” and “a millionaire’s dole”—criticisms echoed today by all those who see George W. Bush’s Troubled Asset Relief Program and Obama’s own Public-Private Investment Program as outrageous giveaways. And, as Kennedy points out, once Hoover had set in motion the great bank bailout of 1931, he “had given up the ground of high principle” and “implicitly legitimated the claims of other sectors for federal assistance.” Critics raised the same criticisms they would raise about Obama’s bailout plans seventy-eight years later. If the banks get a bailout, why not everyone else? Were bailouts only for the rich?Exacerbating the entire situation was the RFC itself. Hoover’s leading weapon to combat the Depression performed with TARP-like languor, secrecy, and nepotism. Throughout 1932, as banks continued to topple by the hundreds, the RFC disbursed only three-quarters of its available money. Although Hoover had declared that the agency was “not created for the aid of big industries or big banks,” a record of its operations revealed that most of its money had indeed gone to a very few of the country’s biggest financial institutions. In June of 1932, the RFC’s president, Charles G. Dawes—who had just served as vice president of the United States under Calvin Coolidge—resigned his post, took a new job as head of the Central Republic Bank in Chicago, and promptly secured for his employer an RFC loan that nearly equaled the bank’s total deposits. Dawes’s successor, Atlee Pomerene, then lent another $12 million to a Cleveland bank of which he remained a director.These facts were, in the end, wrestled out in the open only by congressional fiat. The recipients of some $642 million of the RFC’s loans—nearly half its total expenditures—were not revealed at all. Hoover, like Obama, had insisted on secrecy to keep the proceedings from being “politicized,” but, inevitably, this fear of politicization in the end only led to more politics. The writer John T. Flynn, who reported much of the RFC scandal in the pages of this magazine, found that most of the money was distributed “by a group of directors drawn from those business groups whose performances during the pre-crash years have rendered them objects of suspicion to the American people” and that the “immense sums they dispensed were given to borrowers, many of whom, to put it mildly, have forfeited, justly or unjustly, the confidence of the people.”The RFC’s deliberations were understood—with good reason—not as effective management but as insider dealing: common financial practice through the 1920s, but politically and morally insupportable at a time when millions of Americans were losing their jobs, their homes, and their savings, and when some were literally dying of starvation. What’s more, even the loans that were made proved less than effective. The rescued banks, much like the rescued banks today, simply hoarded the new capital and refused to venture out into the marketplace.Neither the RFC nor any of Hoover’s other programs did anything to seriously address the other major problems then plaguing the American economy: the decades-long farm crisis that was sweeping away Dust Bowl farmers’ actual soil along with their holdings; the near annihilation of the labor movement; a wildly unequal distribution of wealth; the lack of any real safety net for the old, the indigent, and the unemployable; a corrupt, non-transparent financial system that remained largely unregulated—in short, the need for systematic, wholesale reform of a nation that had foundered on the changing circumstances of the modern world.It would have been very difficult to make most of these changes, because by and large they were advocated only by what were then the most radical individuals on the fringes of the political system. The one thing to be said in favor of such changes was that they were absolutely necessary.By the summer of 1932, the country was in a state of near rebellion, with the “Bonus Army” of angry veterans camped out in Washington, farmers dumping their produce on the highways in protest, and mobs forcibly stopping evictions in the cities. The liberals in Congress had moved at last beyond Hoover, with even Jack Garner backing a $2.1-billion package of public works and direct relief. Hoover vetoed it, warning against the moral entrapments of “the dole.”Why was Herbert Hoover so reluctant to make the radical changes that were so clearly needed? It could not have been a question of competence or compassion for this lifelong Quaker, who had rushed sustenance to starving people around the world regardless of their nationalities or beliefs. Ultimately, Hoover could not break with the prevailing beliefs of his day. The essence of the Progressive Era in which he had come of age—the very essence of his own public image—was that government was a science. It was not a coincidence that this era brought us the very term “political science,” along with the advent of “nonpartisan” elections and “city managers” to replace mayors.Since the 1890s, Hoover and his contemporaries had promoted this brand of progressivism as an alternative not only to the political and corporate corruption of the Gilded Age but also to the furious class and regional warfare that progressivism’s predecessor, populism, seemed to promise. Progressivism aspired to be something of a political science itself, untrammeled by ideological or partisan influence: there was a right way and a wrong way to do things, and all unselfish and uncorrupted individuals could be counted on to do the right thing, once they were shown what that was.There were plenty of progressives, led by Teddy Roosevelt, who understood that bringing real change meant fighting to bust up trusts, regain public ownership of utilities, and secure rights for labor, women, and others. But the great national effort inspired by World War I softened memories of the bitter class conflict that had characterized much of American politics since the Civil War, just as the rollicking prosperity of the 1920s erased memories of the postwar Red Scare and the crushing of labor unions. Throughout the decade, big business sought to co-opt any lingering labor resentments by forming “company unions” under what they called “the American Plan.” Volunteerism and boosterism would take care of the rest. Prosperity would come through an always rising stock market.Hoover’s every decision in fighting the Great Depression mirrored the sentiments of 1920s “business progressivism,” even as he understood intellectually that something more was required. Farsighted as he was compared with almost everyone else in public life, believing as much as he did in activist government, he still could not convince himself to take the next step and accept that the basic economic tenets he had believed in all his life were discredited; that something wholly new was required.Such a transformation would have required a mental suppleness that was simply not in the makeup of this fabulously successful scientist and self-made businessman. And it was this inability to radically alter his thinking that, ultimately, distinguished Hoover from Franklin Roosevelt. FDR was by no means the rigorous thinker that Hoover was, and many observers then and since have accused him of having no fixed principles whatsoever. And yet it was Roosevelt, the Great Improviser, who was able to patch and borrow and fudge his way to solutions not only to the Depression but also to sustained prosperity and democracy. It was FDR, brought up with the entitled, patronizing worldview of a Hudson Valley aristocrat, who was able to overcome attachments to all classes, all theories. It was Roosevelt who understood the imperfections, the rough-and-tumble of politics. The programs of the First and Second New Deals were a hodgepodge of ideologies—which is precisely why they worked. The innovations they brought about, however sloppily, were the core of twentieth-century American liberalism in that they reflected the complex ever-changing realities of the modern world.Originally, Roosevelt, too, endorsed much of the progressive vision—or at least its pale 1920s imitation—as evidenced by his National Recovery Administration, a flabby utopian plan that would have had business, labor, and government collaborate to set prices, wages, and industry standards down to the most minute details. The NRA would have carried 1920s-style business progressivism right to the doorstep of the corporate state, had it been even vaguely workable. But right from the beginning, Roosevelt also endorsed reforms, from regulating Wall Street to saving the farmers to backing labor unions in their organizing wars, that required _conflict—_the only way in which a political and economic system can be fundamentally remade. When the NRA quickly proved to be a bust, FDR discarded it, and replaced his failure with the Second New Deal, in which business, labor, and government were situated as countervailing forces against one another—a fundamental power shift that enabled advances in both prosperity and democracy unmatched in human history.Much like Herbert Hoover, Barack Obama is a man attempting to realize a stirring new vision of his society without cutting himself free from the dogmas of the past—without accepting the inevitable conflict. Like Hoover, he is bound to fail.President Obama, to be fair, seems to be even more alone than Hoover was in facing the emergency at hand. The most appalling aspect of the present crisis has been the utter fecklessness of the American elite in failing to confront it. From both the private and public sectors, across the entire political spectrum, the lack of both will and new ideas has been stunning. When it came to the opposition, Franklin Roosevelt reaped the creative support of any number of progressive Republicans throughout his twelve years in office, ranging from New York Mayor Fiorello La Guardia to Nebraska Senator George Norris to key cabinet members such as Henry A. Wallace, Harold Ickes, Henry Stimson, and Frank Knox. Obama, by contrast, has had to contend with a knee-jerk rejectionist Republican Party.More frustrating has been the torpor among Obama’s fellow Democrats. One might have assumed that the adrenaline rush of regaining power after decades of conservative hegemony, not to mention relief at surviving the depredations of the Bush years, or losing the vestigial tail of the white Southern branch of the party, would have liberated congressional Democrats to loose a burst of pent-up, imaginative liberal initiatives.Instead, we have seen a parade of aged satraps from vast, windy places stepping forward to tell us what is off the table. Every week, there is another Max Baucus of Montana, another Kent Conrad of North Dakota, another Ben Nelson of Nebraska, huffing and puffing and harrumphing that we had better forget about single-payer health care, a carbon tax, nationalizing the banks, funding for mass transit, closing tax loopholes for the rich. These are men with tiny constituencies who sat for decades in the Senate without doing or saying anything of note, who acquiesced shamelessly to the worst abuses of the Bush Administration and who come forward now to chide the president for not concentrating enough on reducing the budget deficit, or for “trying to do too much,” as if he were as old and as indolent as they are.Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid—yet another small gray man from a great big space where the tumbleweeds blow—seems unwilling to make even a symbolic effort at party discipline. Within days of President Obama’s announcing his legislative agenda, the perpetually callow Indiana Senator Evan Bayh came forward to announce the formation of a breakaway caucus of fifteen “moderate” Democrats from the Midwest who sought to help the country make “the changes we need” but “make sure that they’re done in a practical way that will actually work”—a statement that was almost Zen-like in its perfect vacuousness. Even most of the Senate’s more enlightened notables, such as Russ Feingold of Wisconsin or Claire McCaskill of Missouri or Sherrod Brown of Ohio, have had little to contribute beyond some hand-wringing whenever the idea of a carbon tax or any other restrictions on burning coal are proposed.President Obama, with a laudable respect for the separation of powers, has left the details and even the main tenets of his agenda to be worked out by these same congressional Democrats. This approach looks like an exercise in democracy drawn from his days as a community organizer, the sort of strategy that helps a neighborhood to decide whether it wants, say, a health clinic or a youth center. What he doesn’t care to acknowledge is that, in the case of the U.S. Congress, he’s dealing with a neighborhood where maybe half want a health clinic and the rest are holding out for grenade launchers and crystal meth.Some have suggested that this is a subtle strategy to ensure that the White House retains the whip hand, that Obama is reserving for himself the role of “decider” over competing plans. But what is the decision then? Half a health clinic and one grenade launcher? A plan for universal health care that is not universal and doesn’t cut costs will not work. A plan for combating climate change that perpetuates the shibboleth of “clean coal” will do nothing. Far from controlling the process, Obama’s procedure is more likely to commit him to one of Congress’s nebulous non-plans.Yet Obama’s lack of direction, his lack of accomplishments in his Hundred Days and counting, cannot be attributed solely to his illusions about the august body he just vacated. Obama, like Hoover in his time, is almost alone among politicians in grasping the magnitude of the crisis. In his masterful February speech before the joint houses of Congress, Obama explained to the country why we cannot afford to continue with a tottering health-care system that has left 46 million Americans uninsured and that impedes our exports by adding, for instance, $1,500 to the cost of every GM car; why it is that climate change has to be addressed now, and how by addressing it we can regain our industrial base and actually begin to make things again; why it is that our financial system could not simply be bailed out and patched up but must be fundamentally reformed and re-regulated. Above all, he explained the necessary interaction of all these reforms, of how they were not just some liberal wish list but the actions that the radical moment demanded.Speeches almost as powerful have followed, always linking these ideas together. But, like Hoover, Obama has been unable to make his actions live up to his words. Health care is being gummed to death on Capitol Hill. Obama has done nothing to pass “card check” provisions that would facilitate union organization and quietly announced that he would not seek stronger labor and environmental protections in NAFTA. He has capitulated on cap-and-trade in the budget outline and never even bothered to push for an actual carbon tax. Only minuscule portions of the stimulus bill or his budget proposals were dedicated to mass transit, and his indifference to the issue—what must be a major component of any serious effort to go green—was reflected in his appointment of a mediocre Republican time-server, Ray LaHood, as his transportation secretary.Still worse is Obama’s decision to leave the reordering of the financial world solely to Larry Summers and Timothy Geithner, both of whom played such a major role in deregulating Wall Street and bringing on the disaster in the first place. It’s as if, after winning election in 1932, FDR had brought Andrew Mellon back to the Treasury. Just as Herbert Hoover could not, in the end, break away from the best economic advice of the 1920s, Barack Obama is sticking with the “key men” of the 1990s. The predictable result is that, even as he claims to recognize the interlocking nature of the problems facing us and vows to solve them as a whole, the president is in fact abandoning most of his program, at least for the time being.No doubt, President Obama and his chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, would claim that by practicing “the art of the possible,” they are ensuring that “the perfect does not become the enemy of the good.” But by not even proposing the relevant legislation, Obama has ceded a key part of the process—so much so that his retreat seems not so much tactical as a reversion to his core political beliefs.A major theme of Obama’s 2006 book The Audacity of Hope is impatience with “the smallness of our politics” and its “partisanship and acrimony.” He expresses frustration at how “the tumult of the sixties and the subsequent backlash continues to drive our political discourse,” and voices a professional appreciation for Ronald Reagan’s ability to exploit such divisions. The politician he admires the most—ironically enough, considering the campaign that was to come—is Bill Clinton. For all his faults, Clinton, in Obama’s eyes, “instinctively understood the falseness of the choices being presented to the American people” and came up with his “Third Way,” which “tapped into the pragmatic, non-ideological attitude of the majority of Americans.”This is an analysis consistent with Obama’s personal story. Like Herbert Hoover, Obama grew up as an outsider and overcame formidable odds—hence his constant promotion of personal responsibility and education. He came of age in a time when hardworking young men and women like him went to Wall Street or to Silicon Valley, and—once properly “incentivized” by the likes of Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton—seemed to save the national economy, creating what appeared to be great general prosperity while doing well themselves. There’s no need to do battle with these strivers and achievers, individuals as accomplished in their fields as Obama is in his. All that’s required is to get them back on their feet, get the money running again, and maybe give them a few new rules to live by, a new set of incentives to get them back on track.Just as Herbert Hoover came to internalize the “business progressivism” of his era as a welcome alternative to the futile, counterproductive conflicts of an earlier time, so has Obama internalized what might be called Clinton’s “business liberalism” as an alternative to useless battles from another time—battles that liberals, in any case, tended to lose.Clinton’s business liberalism, however, is a chimera, every bit as much a capitulation to powerful and selfish interests as was Hoover’s 1920s progressivism. We are back in Evan Bayh territory here, espousing a “pragmatism” that is not really pragmatism at all, just surrender to the usual corporate interests. The common thread running through all of Obama’s major proposals right now is that they are labyrinthine solutions designed mainly to avoid conflict. The bank bailout, cap-and-trade on carbon emissions, health-care pools—all of these ideas are, like Hillary Clinton’s ill-fated 1993 health plan, simultaneously too complicated to draw a constituency and too threatening for Congress to shape and pass as Obama would like. They bear the seeds of their own defeat.Obama will have to directly attack the fortified bastions of the newest “new class”—the makers of the paper economy in which he came of age—if he is to accomplish anything. These interests did not spend fifty years shipping the greatest industrial economy in the history of the world overseas only to be challenged by a newly empowered, green-economy working class. They did not spend much of the past two decades gobbling up previously public sectors such as health care, education, and transportation only to have to compete with a reinvigorated public sector. They mean, even now, to use the bailout to make the government their helpless junior partner, and if they can they will devour every federal dollar available to recoup their own losses, and thereby preclude the use of any monies for the rest of Barack Obama’s splendid vision.Franklin Roosevelt also took office imagining that he could bring all classes of Americans together in some big, mushy, cooperative scheme. Quickly disabused of this notion, he threw himself into the bumptious give-and-take of practical politics; lying, deceiving, manipulating, arraying one group after another on his side—a transit encapsulated by how, at the end of his first term, his outraged opponents were calling him a “traitor to his class” and he was gleefully inveighing against “economic royalists” and announcing, “They are unanimous in their hatred for me—and I welcome their hatred.”Obama should not deceive himself into thinking that such interest-group politics can be banished any more than can the cycles of Wall Street. It is not too late for him to change direction and seize the radical moment at hand. But for the moment, just like another very good man, Barack Obama is moving prudently, carefully, reasonably toward disaster.

From Above,What bankrupts America’s health care is that no one will put it on a budget.A budget will mean that unusual life prolonging procedures will not be covered – such as transplants, chemo, etc. Well, the shopping list of what could reasonably be covered is long and basic.This mentality that the last ounce of life must be squeezed out of universal health care is killing any reasonable reform. We need to face the prospect of rationed health care. Of course if you are rich you can get further health care by privately paying for it.If rationed health care were undertaken the $40 Trillion current entitlement would be vastly reduced – ensuring that the youngest and next generation would be healthy and productive.

Are there any lawyers here who can explain to me why USA ambassador is STILL in Honduras? I thought the law required pulling ambassador out and cutting diplomatic ties because of the illegal coup. Isn’t Obama breaking the law of USA?

Who has determined that it was an illegal coup? My understanding is that the President of Honduras was replaced because he was trying to circumvent that country’s constitution. He was trying to annul term limits with a view to becoming President for life, a la Chavez.Pity we can’t put a few of our politicians on their bikes!

No, Morbid, what bankrupts America’s health care is A) the uncalled-for stratospheric military budget, B) the fact that the vulgar and inhumane (thanks Yve) private, for-profit system is the very LEAST efficient vehicle for delivering health care, and C) piling unlimited heaps of the nation’s money on Goldamn Sachs, etc.THE SCARCITY IS MANUFACTURED. IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE AT ALL.You’ve watched Logan’s Run too many times, Morbid?

No, there is no such law in the U.S. There is no requirement that the U.S. withdraw its ambassador when a coup d’état occurs in a country.U.S. embassies are permanent diplomatic missions to foreign states. The purpose of U.S. embassies is to protect in the foreign state the interests of U.S. nationals, to negotiate with the governments of foreign states, to monitor and report to the Secretary of State conditions and developments foreign states, to promote good relations between the U.S. and the foreign states, and to develop joint economic, cultural and scientific relations. An ambassador, appointed by the President, is the representative of the Secretary of State in a foreign state.When there is a dispute with a foreign state, the U.S. and other countries may recall their ambassador for consultation to express displeasure with the foreign state and put a chargé d’affaires with limited authority in place of the ambassador. Typically, though, the U.S. and other states do not cut their diplomatic relations with a foreign state completely. Iran and Cuba, in which the U.S. withdrew its embassies, are notable exceptions.SWK

So, according to what I understand from SWK’s post immediately below, the President should have been arrested, put in jail and then put on trial for treason. Putting him on a plane out of the country was likely more humane.What would happen if President Obama did something blatantly illegal and against the constitution? Would the Suprem Court sit quietly back and do nothing? (Oh, I forgot, they did. He completely steamrolled the legal rights of GM bondholders).

@GSM; Could not agreee more. GS is in charge these days. What would be the easiest and most legal way to shut down Goldman Sachs? please continue your observations on GS..

I have read that the USA gov is, however, compelled by USA law to cut off all economic and military aid to Honduras since its gov is no longer legitimate – which Obama has not done.People who are failing to condemn this terrible illegal coup in no uncertain terms are aiding and abetting heinous criminal activity and are either unwittingly supporting the fascists or are willfully complicit. Average Americans have NO IDEA the crucial importance of the past few days and the next few to come!

Here’s the relevant part of the foreign operations bill:Quote:Sec. 7008. None of the funds appropriated or otherwise made available pursuant to titles III through VI of this Act shall be obligated or expended to finance directly any assistance to the government of any country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup or decree.

Conservative Christian, right wing Republican, straight, white, American male.Gay bashin’, black fearin’, poor fightin’, tree killin’, regioal leaders of salesFrat housin’, keg tappin’, shirt tuckin’, back slappin’ haters of hippies like me.Tree huggin’, peace lovin’, pot smokin’, porn watchin’ lazyass hippies like me.Tree huggin’, love makin’, pro choicen, gay weddin’, widespread diggin’ hippies like me.Skin color-blinded, conspiracy-minded, protestors of corporate greed,We who have nothing and most likely will ‘till we all wind up locked up in jailsBy conservative Christian, right wing Republican, straight, white, American males,.Diamonds and dogs, boys and girls, living together in two separate worldsFollowing leaders of mountains of shame, looking for someone to blame.Diamonds and dogs, boys and girls, living together in two separate worldsFollowing leaders of mountains of shame, looking for someone to blame.I know who I like to blame:Conservative Christian, right wing Republican, straight, white, American males,Soul savin’, flag wavin’, Rush lovin’, land pavin’ personal friends to the QuaylesQuite diligently workin’ so hard to keep the free reins of this DemocracyFrom tree huggin’, peace lovin’, pot smokin’, barefootin’ folk-singin’ hippies like me.Tree huggin’, peace lovin’, pot smokin’, porn watchin’ lazyass hippies like me.One-sidedness is not the answer – no matter whose side is held up to be the “superior” one. This guy has not gotten past the cradle stage in his conscious development. Another “Rush” shock-jock approach to life.

@GSM: “GS is calling the shots on the US economy through Treasury and the Fed . We have no idea the details of really how they are playing their game… That realm is for the chosen ones- we are not of them.”Here’s a fitting blog comment from weekend dialog regarding Taibbi’s “Wall Street Smackdown” of crime boss, Goldman Sachs:“This depressions is opening people’s eyes, and what do they see? They see that their ruling class is a crime syndicate.”

The majority of Americans already fully support single-payer healthcare…a fact that would be recognized if not for the obfuscations, omissions, and lies told by the propaganda ministry known as the corporate-owned and CIA compliant “mainsteam” media.

Your thirst for sadism and masochism disguised as ‘necessity’ are too creepy for words. I seriously think you need professional help.

Everyone with at least two brain cells to rub together seems to agree that the rich have too much money and therefore power to influence how everybody on the globe lives out the limited hours they have, and consequently the poor have too little of both money, and power over their own lives and opportunities and options, but how shall we know what amount is the right amount for anybody to have? How do we know where to draw the line and say ‘this much and no more is a rightful share of wealth and power’? Should it simply be a matter of all you can get is yours, or should an amount be calculated contingent upon, say, how much work an individual does?

It should be a balance that requires regular weighing, no one ideology can function on its own, the greed motive has obviously been a complete disaster so get rid of the old thinkers but the problem is that they’re still in power and it takes awhile, socialism has its inherent flaws too so the new system must be dynamic, understanding that like in nature for every one tree cut down one should be replaced or two or three or maybe none depending on the environment and variables. The point is to get away from ideology and replace it with concern for the whole which may include concern for the individual but as a byproduct.

Who said that race doesn’t matter, to the racists? This “white guy” (as Hispanics would call him) is just a dumb, guitar-totin’ hay seed paid by the racist industry to demonize white Americans and the Christian principles on which the nation was founded. This is the mantra that accompanies an “open” border policy by races who came to take, not to assimilate.Get used to it. Obama and his cabinet are pushing America into a final battle to sever the European head from her body politic—Diversity versus Unity. And the majority minorities of the Third World intend to win it.If Todd Snider is right about whites, how did a black man, a Kenyan, get elected “president” in the America he thinks exists? The rap song is racist, of course, and I reject the sophomoric position that criticizing racism is racistJudge Sonia Sotomayor, Obama’s pick for the United States Supreme Court, is a member of the National Council of La Raza. La Raza means “the Race.” THE race, of course, is her Latino race—primarly Hispanics, and especially Latinos from Cuba, Mexico, Puerto Rico, or South or Central America.The legitimate criticism of Sotomayor is because of her racist remarks. Sotomayor’s the Latina who prioritizes her race: “I would hope that a wise Latina woman with the richness of her experience would more often than not reach a better conclusion than a white male who hasn’t lived that life.” That (as Time Magazine called it on the front cover with her picture) is Latina Justice. Get used to it.

GSM:I generally enjoy reading your posts and agree with the gist of much of what you say. I don’t agree, however, with your characterization that those who seek public office are, ipso facto, doing so for their own personal aggrandizement, or that President Obama was so motivated.Your broad and bombastic generalizations here — a vain attempt to cram through a simplistic black and white filter what is in reality a diverse spectrum of politics, economics, government, and human nature — tend to suggest you to be no different than the so-called “sheeple” you deride. You’re more astute, it seems to me, than this post comes across. Your posts are more compelling when you are less adamant and more circumspect in your evaluation of what is versus what you suspect to be true.There is no question that the financial industry, and Goldman Sachs in particular, has had, and continues to have, an undue influence on politics and government. There’s a lot more to the problem, though, than pointing the finger at Goldman Sachs (or the President) and saying, “Ah-ha! There’s the culprit!” It’s apparent you understand this is a systemic problem that we need to tackle.SWK

You miss the point, Guest. That wasn’t the problem. The problem was that the military summarily and forcibly ejected the President from the country, and they had no constitutional authority to do that. It would be as if the Joint Chiefs of Staff decided something President Obama did was wrong and seized him and dropped him off in Argentina. I’d suggest you go watch the Kirk Douglas/Burt Lancaster film from 1964, “Seven Days in May,” then come back and let us know if you think that’s the way things should be.SWK

Great. Looks like good research on its face. This does not, of course, require that the U.S. cut off diplomatic ties and close its Embassy in Honduras.What makes you think the President has violated the provision you cited? Given that the President has condemned publicly the forced exile of the duly elected Honduran President as illegal, why do you believe the Administration is continuing to obligate or expend to finance directly any assistance to the current illegal government of Honduras?SWK

Did I hear correctly – Baker says Obama, (frequently compared with Franklin Roosevelt), “so far…most resembles the other president who had to confront that crisis [the Depression], Herbert Hoover”?So. The liberals are now trying to distance Obama’s FDR policies from FDR!For somebody who thinks Obama is the “only adult in the room,” and knowing what I know of what liberals think of Hoover (they despise him), Baker, ie., Harper’s, is simply foisting Obama’s corroding image off onto Hoover so as to hide the real truth of the failed Keynesian polices of their tarnished economic hero, New Dealer FDR. The truth is, the policies of both Hoover and FDR failed.Speaking of liberals rewriting their own liberal revisionist history, Baker is a revisionist pro in the making. Listen to this: “Hoover—like Obama—was almost certainly someone gifted with more intelligence, a better education, and a greater range of life experience than FDR…and yet he failed.” Oh, sob!Excuse me a minute, I’m going to be sick…Continuing on…This week, I took a swing around our local auto mall where four giant dealerships were shut–large parking lots, ghostly empty, weeds starting between the asphalt cracks, waste paper scuttling across in the wind. In the thirties, Democrats would have called this spot a Hooverville. Likewise, today’s FDR worshipers intend to write this Obamaville off as, just another Hooverville.Barack Hoover Obama, indeed!

No Logan’s Run for me.I watched Pete Peterson, the former CEO of BLACKSTONE, on Charlie Rose recently. The budget business for health care was his notion for how to have a universal health care coverage. Pete is also concerned that we are headed towards NATIONAL INSOLVENCY.A conversation Peter Peterson 3 July 2009Pete has donated $1 Billion to a foundation to study our nations problems and try to come up with independent solutions.

Me too:-) But about 4% return YTD. I have been as high as 7+% and as low as -14% at the march low.

Great presentation- cover all aspects of the current ecconomy and where risk lies ahead..http://www.moremortgagemeltdown.com/download/pdf/T2_Partners_presentation_on_the_mortgage_crisis.pdf

Gu,If Castro & Chavez are upset then I am for the overthrow & Obi ought to be also.Honduras at the Tipping Point

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aOkZK5Ra6XDI“Federal Reserve bought $7 billion in government securities”? man, where they come up with 7Billion to Treasury debt?

Ask an American Indian which race came to their lands to take EVERYTHING and murder the first peoples and not assimilate before you post another idiotic racist screed, 10:53.

832 words of pure disinformation. Amazing.And you swallowed it hook, line, and sinker. Fool. Tool.I notice you make no comment on any the vast information provided that puts the lie to everything O’Grady said, so I can only assume you are willfully refusing to consult the facts in order to stick with your bias for the lies that are getting people killed. Nice.

sorry my attempt at creating the shape didn’t work, but you get the picture…

Well ,yes Morbid:There are many optional ways of paying for/operating health care.You have the example in Canada where each Canadian State has for 60 years a Private/Public Partnership with the State Medical Association,whereby the Doctors remain Private Sector and bill the State Govt for a prearranged “FEE FOR SERVICE”similar to what your Private Insurers agree to pay.So yes there is a form of rationing in effect,but you will notice that the overall costs at the moment are 30% LESS than your “EFFICENT PRIVATE SYSTEM”.Looking at your system from a distance,it appears you can easily protect everyone at a much reduced cost if you really wanted to.By the way the Medical People like the state run option ,where the accountability is “LOCAL”and the Medical Profession has real input into the the decision making at the State level.This is the opposite from the Cuban and British Systems where the Doctors all work for thew Federal Govt on the basis of Paychecks .At the end of the day Canada has 14 similar state run systems.Unfortunatly the propoganda level is so high from the various U S private interests involved, it is hard to see the forest for the trees….

Thanks, MM CA, it is a good presentation; sharing things like that is one of the great things about this blog!

Gu:The law doesn’t require any announcement about cutting off aid, so it’s misplaced to suggest that the Obama administration has broken the law unless you can point to an actual direct expenditure. I really think you’re reading the administration’s intentions through a very odd-colored pair of spectacles. You can try to interpret every event in the world as a clash of classes, but frankly, that’s just unduly simplistic. If the U.S. wanted Zelaya out, then the administration would have had no comment on his ouster.SWK

Oh, but please don’t take that to mean that I endorse Gu’s name-calling and personal invectives, which is unnecessary and counterproductive.SWK

I also share your concerns. While there has been much talk about “Green Shoots” and economic recover, we still see nothing but a global economy in contraction. While the government, the investment community and the media like to put the spin on that things are improving, the reality, is that things are getting less bad than they were six months ago. All that has happened is that the rate of deterioration has slowed down.There is talk of V shaped recoveries and W shaped recoveries but frankly, I think an italic “I” viewed in a mirror best describes events. The only evidence of the V is in global stock markets and the markets for various commodities. Stocks are better based on the eternal optimism of most human beings, and commodities by the ongoing hoarding by the Chinese government. These two shall pass and the bulls will be forced to talk about an eventual W recovery.

Malignant optimism.Of course the gang of scammers would try and sell us on a V.

What also bankrupts America is that 60% of the people get more from the government than they put in.As Jean Jaures said in “Studies in Socialism (1902)”: There is only one sovereign method for the achievement of Socialism–winning of a legal majority.”And, by Gad, I believe they’ve got it. They’re right now voting themselves the entire U.S. Treasury, what’s left after Goldman gets through, that is. But no problem. Bernanke can always print more.

SWK, I believe I said that when I suggested that someone else write an equally convincing essay taking the opposite point of view. Then we can sort out the facts better. Reading this particular essay was kind of like eating pancakes with lots of maple syrup. It goes down great, but afterwords I am a little woozy when I stand up from the table.

Alarmist, I think you’ve got it. Let’s publish!

Crabtree & Evelyn Boutiques file for bankruptcy–oh, no! Really upsets me to learn that. Had no inkling.

So, sorry Grandma, but that bypass you need, well…you’re not worth it…you are used up, no longer of productive use to society (i.e. you are no longer producing anything tangible or profitable for the economy) & we have nothing more we can materially gain from your existence. Would you be so eager if it was your Grandmother, wife or child? The people who want to ration health care should have to be the ones to deliver the bad news to those affected. Only a problem for the non-sociopaths amongst us. Perhaps that could be a growth industry Morbid. You could start a company employing sociopaths to deliver the bad news to the unqualified, maybe have an unplugging service as an add-on and up-sell funeral services. Hey! I see green shoots! Soy-lent green, but they are still green.

Yve, have you seen this?OBAMA WANTS TO DECIDE WHEN YOU’RE NOT WORTH LIVING ANYMORECharlotte Allen, LA Times – In looking for a way to fund healthcare, Obama has set his eye on the oldest and sickest. You see, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, about 30% of Medicare spending — nearly $100 billion annually — goes to care for patients during their last year of life. What if there were no “last year of life,” the president seems to be asking. The Eskimos used to set their elderly and sickly adrift on the ice or otherwise abandon them during times of scarcity, and that, metaphorically speaking, is what Obama would like us all to start doing.The scarcity of resources to pay for expensive medical procedures will only increase under a plan to extend medical benefits at federal expense to the 47 million Americans who lack health insurance. So why not save billions of dollars by killing off our own unproductive oldsters and terminal patients, or — since we aren’t likely to do that outright in this, the 21st century — why not simply ensure that they die faster by denying them costly medical care? The savings could then subsidize care for the younger and healthier.Sound too draconian? Enter the ghost of Obama’s late maternal grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, who died of cancer at age 86 two days before her grandson’s election to the presidency. Dunham’s health issues first surfaced in a New York Times interview with the president on May 3. There, Obama questioned the appropriateness of a hip replacement that his grandmother had undergone after falling and breaking her hip shortly after being diagnosed with terminal cancer last year. The alternative to such surgery is typically excruciating pain and opiate dependency. Obama made it clear that he loved his granny and would have paid for the surgery out of his own pocket if he had to, but he said there ought to be a “conversation” over whether “sort of in the aggregate, society making those decisions to give my grandmother, or everybody else’s aging grandparents or parents, a hip replacement when they’re terminally ill is a sustainable model.” Obama suggested that such decisions be made not by patients or their relatives but by a “group” of “doctors, scientists, ethicists” who are not part of “normal political channels.”Obama brought up his grandmother’s hip replacement a second time in his June 24 town hall event on healthcare on ABC. The “question was,” Obama said, “does she get hip-replacement surgery, even though she was fragile enough they were not sure how long she would last?” . . .An audience member, Jane Sturm, told the story of her 99-year-old mother, who had initially been turned down for a pacemaker on account of her age. Sturm’s mother persuaded a second physician impressed with her /joie de vivre /to perform the life-extending operation — and she’s still hale today at age 105. “Outside the medical criteria,” Sturm asked, “is there a consideration that can be given for a certain spirit . . . and quality of life?”Nope. “I don’t think that we can make judgments based on people’s spirit,” Obama said. “That would be a pretty subjective decision to be making. I think we have to have rules that we are going to provide good, quality care for all people.”If that sounds cold, or like an interference with the traditional physician-patient relationship, in which doctors make decisions — call them “subjective” decisions, if you like — about the most appropriate care for their patients on an individual basis, that is the very point. Obama and those who support his healthcare reform proposals have embraced a concept called “comparative effectiveness research.” The idea behind comparative effectiveness research is basically a good one: Use large-scale scientific studies to determine which medical procedures produce the best patient outcomes in the aggregate, and whether some expensive tests, drugs and surgeries might not be as effective in the aggregate as cheaper alternatives. . .But Obama and his healthcare supporters do not want to stop there. Their implicit proposal seems to want to turn comparative effectiveness research into the “rules” that Obama was talking about on ABC: one-size-fits-all procedures that physicians would have to follow at the risk of not being paid by the government. . .

US LURCHING TOWARDS ‘DEBT EXPLOSION’ WITH LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES ON COURSE TO DOUBLE | Telegraph.co.ukThe US economy is lurching towards crisis with long-term interest rates on course to double, crippling the country’s ability to pay its debts and potentially plunging it into another recession, according to a study by the US’s own central bankBy Philip Aldrick, Banking EditorPublished: 5:44AM BST 06 Jul 2009In a 2003 paper, Thomas Laubach, the US Federal Reserve’s senior economist, calculated the impact on long-term interest rates of rising fiscal deficits and soaring national debt. Applying his assumptions to the recent spike in the US fiscal deficit and national debt, long-term interests rates will double from their current 3.5pc.The impact would be devastating by making it punitively expensive to finance national borrowings and leading to what Tim Congdon, founder of Lombard Street Research, called a “debt explosion”. Mr Laubach’s study has implications for the UK, too, as public debt is soaring. A US crisis would have implications for the rest of the world, in any case.Using historical examples for his paper, New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt, Mr Laubach came to the conclusion that “a percentage point increase in the projected deficit-to-GDP ratio raises the 10-year bond rate expected to prevail five years into the future by 20 to 40 basis points, a typical estimate is about 25 basis points”.The US deficit has blown out from 3pc to 13.5pc in the past year but long-term rates are largely unchanged. Assuming Mr Laubach’s “typical estimate”, long-term rates have to climb 2.5 percentage points.He added: “Similarly, a percentage point increase in the projected debt-to-GDP ratio raises future interest predicting a wide range of ratios but Mr Congdon said it was “not unreasonable” to assume debt doubling to 140pc. At that level, Mr Laubach’s calculations would see long-term rates rise by 3.5 percentage points.The study is damning because Mr Laubach was the Fed’s economist at the time, going on to become its senior economist between 2005 and 2008, when he stepped down. As a result, the doubling in rates is the US central bank’s own prediction.Mr Congdon said the study illustrated the “horrifying” consequences for leading western economies of bailing out their banks and attempting to stimulate markets by cutting taxes and boosting public spending. He said the markets had failed to digest fully the scale of fiscal largesse and said “current gilt yields [public debt] are extraordinary low given the size of deficits”.Should the cost of raising or refinancing public debt in the markets double, “the debt could just explode”, he said, adding that it would come to a head in “five to 10 years”.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5754447/US-lurching-towards-debt-explosion-with-long-term-interest-rates-on-course-to-double.html

You are corrupted.You are trapped…

No thanks. They’ve had their chance. What a mess the old have left behind for the young to clean up.

Single-payer is one of the main drivers for health-care being so expensive in the US, with one of the other major factors being that it is widely available to all who can pay and often free to those who can’t. If people had to pay out of their own pockets for their healthcare, you’d no doubt see a vastly improved system.

What’s amazing is how many experts are denying this is the most likely outcome. Thinking that the politicians will let the Fed actually rein in inflation before it raises its ugly head flies in the face of several millenia of experience human nature. We took the easy way out, and we are doomed.

Your confused scenario bears no resemblance whatsoever to the situation in Honduras. If you people don’t care to deal with the facts, why do you bother to comment? Why are you presenting support for anti-democratic forces???????

Gu,Do you have some skin in this Honduras game? It seems you think you are the only one who understands what is going on. Some worldview.I agree with The Alarmist – the UN and the OAS – are hardly credible in their activities. They have become irrelevant or should.

LOL! I just LOVE maple syrup!SWK

Sorry – this response to Pecos Banker wound up down here the first time. Still having problems posting to the site.SWK

thank you for the postnow we have an estimate for just how high the interest rates will go

UK weapons inspector who was found dead was writing expose: paperhttp://rawstory.com/08/news/2009/07/06/uk-weapons-inspector-dead-expose/

@ all the posts on California-thanks for the info and insightsplease keep us postedperhaps the Obama Administration will offer a one time emergency loan to California (and all of the states)?…out of the first stimulus package…and from an emergency second stimulus? with the provision that cutting their budget will be necessary

Can anyone tell me one segemnt of our economy/finanacila system that is not broke and not on life support? Bankruptcies are surging, foreclosures are surging, auto repo’s are surging, and on and on…so who has some good news today?Credit Card And Home Equity Delinquencies Break RecordsMore non-green shoots courtesy of the American Bankers Association.Reuters: Fallout from a still deteriorating housing market caused the rate of consumer loan payments at least 30 days late to rise to 3.23 percent in the January-to-March period from 3.22 percent in the 2008 fourth quarter, the American Bankers Association said.Delinquencies were the highest since the ABA began tracking the data in 1974. Late payments on home equity borrowings set records, rising to 3.52 percent from 3.03 percent on loans and to 1.89 percent from 1.46 percent on lines of credit.Credit card delinquencies also broke a record, with delinquencies jumping to 6.6% — a number that understates the severity of the problem since, as Reuters notes, it doesn’t take into account bank-issued cards.What’s the problem? NO Jobs, NO jobs, NO jobs!!!!http://www.businessinsider.com/credit-card-and-home-equity-delinquencies-break-records-2009-7

Goldman May Lose Millions From Ex-Worker’s Code Theft (Update1)By David Glovin, Christine Harper and Saijel KishanJuly 7 (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. may lose its investment in a proprietary trading code and millions of dollars from increased competition if software allegedly stolen by a former employee gets into the wrong hands, a prosecutor said.Sergey Aleynikov, an ex-Goldman Sachs computer programmer, was arrested July 3 after arriving at Liberty International Airport in Newark, New Jersey, U.S. officials said. Aleynikov, 39, who has dual American and Russian citizenship, is charged in a criminal complaint with stealing the trading software. Teza Technologies LLC, a Chicago-based firm co-founded by a former Citadel Investment Group LLC trader, said it suspended Aleynikov, who started there on July 2.At a court appearance July 4 in Manhattan, Assistant U.S. Attorney Joseph Facciponti told a federal judge that Aleynikov’s alleged theft poses a risk to U.S. markets. Aleynikov transferred the code, which is worth millions of dollars, to a computer server in Germany, and others may have had access to it, Facciponti said, adding that New York-based Goldman Sachs may be harmed if the software is disseminated.“The bank has raised the possibility that there is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways,” Facciponti said, according to a recording of the hearing made public yesterday. “The copy in Germany is still out there, and we at this time do not know who else has access to it.”‘Preposterous’The prosecutor added, “Once it is out there, anybody will be able to use this, and their market share will be adversely affected.”The proprietary code lets the firm do “sophisticated, high- speed and high-volume trades on various stock and commodities markets,” prosecutors said in court papers. The trades generate “many millions of dollars” each year.Defense attorney Sabrina Shroff said in court that the government’s allegations are “preposterous.” The firm was aware that Aleynikov, who is the father of three young girls, was downloading programs to his personal computer to do work at home and that he hasn’t disseminated the code, the lawyer said.“If Goldman Sachs cannot possibly protect this kind of proprietary information that the government wants you to think is worth the entire United States market, one has to question how they plan to accommodate every other breach,” she said.Michael DuVally, a spokesman for Goldman Sachs in New York, declined to comment.$750,000 BailU.S. Magistrate Judge Mark Fox ordered Aleynikov, who earned $400,000 a year, to be held on $750,000 bail, after prosecutors claimed he posed a threat to the community. Aleynikov planned to earn three times his salary by joining a startup company and engaging in high-volume automated trading, prosecutors said. Aleynikov posted bail yesterday and was released.Aleynikov didn’t speak at the hearing, except to say that he understood the conditions of his bail.Teza, co-founded by former Citadel trader Misha Malyshev, said in an e-mailed statement that it first learned of the allegations on July 5 and suspended Aleynikov without pay following an investigation.The firm “was not aware of the alleged misconduct” and offered to cooperate with the government, according to the statement.Reverse Engineering“Someone stealing that code is basically stealing the way that Goldman Sachs makes money in the equity marketplace,” said Larry Tabb, founder of TABB Group, a financial-market research and advisory firm. “The more sophisticated market makers — and Goldman is one of them — spend significant amounts of money developing software that’s extremely fast and can analyze different execution strategies so they can be the first one to make a decision.”Someone could use the code “to implement the same strategies and maybe on certain stocks they can be faster and, in effect, take away money that would normally be Goldman’s,” Tabb said in a phone interview. “The second thing that they can do is actually analyze the code so that they know what Goldman’s going to do before Goldman does it and kind of reverse engineer Goldman’s strategies and make money basically at the expense of Goldman.”‘Wake-Up Call’Harvey Pitt, former chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, said proprietary electronic data poses significant risks for all financial institutions.“This is a wake-up call to all financial institutions to review their security systems, not just with respect to trading codes, but with respect to all proprietary information,” said Pitt, now chief executive officer of Kalorama Partners LLC in Washington.Goldman appeared to have taken some steps to prevent the theft of its code, Pitt said. “The real question is whether, in light of this outrageous conduct on the part of one of its employees, it should have taken more steps,” Pitt said.Aleynikov spent four hours with a Federal Bureau of Investigation agent after his July 3 arrest, Shroff said. He told the agent that he’d done nothing wrong, authorized prosecutors to seize his personal computers, and said he hadn’t known the server he was using was in Germany, she said.32 MegabitsOnly 32 of 1,024 megabits of the software code was transferred, Shroff said.“It is not disseminated,” she said of the code.Facciponti said at the hearing that Aleynikov could disseminate the code “in 10 minutes” using a cell phone. Once the government obtains access to the German server, prosecutors will see if Aleynikov transferred other confidential data as well, he said. It’s logical to conclude that Aleynikov planned to use the code at his new company, the prosecutor said.“This is the most substantial theft that the bank can remember ever happening to it, in the sense the entire platform has been taken from it,” Facciponti said. “There has been no breaches anywhere on this magnitude at the bank.”Aleynikov worked at Goldman from 2007 until June, the government said in the complaint. He was part of a team of workers responsible for improving the computer platform. His alleged transfer of computer codes ran from June 1 to June 5, according to prosecutors.Moscow, RutgersAleynikov studied applied mathematics at the Moscow Institute of Transportation Engineering before transferring to Rutgers University, where he received a bachelor’s degree in computer science in 1993 and a master’s of science degree, specializing in medical image processing and neural networks, in 1996, according to his profile on the social-networking site LinkedIn.Before joining Goldman Sachs, he worked for about eight years at IDT Corp., the U.S. vendor of prepaid calling cards, where he led the team responsible for developing routing systems, according to the profile.His profile on LinkedIn describes him as a vice president in equity strategy at Goldman Sachs and includes two recommendations from colleagues at the firm.Goldman ProfitGoldman was the world’s biggest and most profitable securities firm until it converted to a bank in September following the bankruptcy of smaller rival Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Goldman earned $2.3 billion last year, down from a record $11.6 billion in 2007, as market turmoil caused it to report a fourth-quarter loss, its first in a decade as a public company.Goldman’s equities business generated $2 billion of revenue in the first three months of 2009, down 20 percent from the first quarter of 2008, the company reported in April. Second-quarter results are due to be reported next week.

So after all this pain and the “saving” by americnas, we have lowere dout debt by 100 Billion or .1 trillion?The savings rate increase they tout up to 6% is jsu tlike the unemployment numbers – FAKE. They count paying off debt in that number. That is not savings in cash or in some bank. if we do indeed have 5 trillion more to go who will take thsoe loses?And on this snippet “The Obama administration, hoping for a surge of investment sparked by health care reform and “green” energy opportunities, forecasts rapid growth of 5% in 2010 and 2011.” what are they smoking? if all their decsions they have made are counting on that to happen, it is no wonder they are talking second stimulus.Wall street will love second stimulus talk – becuase it will allow them to keep the Ponzi scheme they run to keep going.So Wonder how big will the second stimulus be? Anyone have an idea?U.S. debt shrinking at glacial paceTHE CREDIT TRAPPart 6: Consumers hit again as some banks raise credit card rates, feesPart 5 : Checking accounts are targets as banks find ways to boost feesPart 4: Sliding economy raises questions about credit scoresPart 3: Credit cards’ soaring rates bite consumersPart 2: Why banks are boosting credit card interest rates and feesPart 1: How rising home values, easy credit put your finances at riskUSA TODAYEighteen months into a deep recession triggered by a credit bubble, consumers have made little progress shrinking a mountain of debt. Until they do, the economy will struggle to grow — likely for years.Household debt peaked at $13.9 trillion in 2008, almost double the figure from 2000. Since then, as consumers cut up credit cards, refinanced outsized mortgages and slashed spending, debt has fallen — all the way to $13.8 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve.”We really have a long way to go,” says economist James Hamilton of the University of California-San Diego.Until the fourth quarter of last year, American consumers had never reduced their total debt in the post-World War II era. Yet the payback or “deleveraging” since then represents a small step along a very long road.”The kind of deleveraging we need to see takes six or eight years. … The retrenching of the U.S. consumer is a huge adjustment the whole world is going to have to absorb,” says Harvard University’s Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.Household debt peaked at 133% of disposable income in 2007 vs. 65% in the mid-1980s. To pare it back to a sustainable level, consumers will have to pay off — or walk away from — roughly $5 trillion of the total debt outstanding, says David Rosenberg, chief economist of the investment firm Gluskin Sheff. That’s more than China’s total economic output.Some debt will be erased through home foreclosures and credit card defaults. But the remainder must be painfully repaid, by consumers holding expenditures below earnings for years. Already, the savings rate, which fell into negative territory before the financial crisis, has jumped to 6.9%.That’s a big change from the pre-crisis period when consumers fueled a consumption binge by borrowing against the bubble-inflated value of their homes.But it’s not enough.The twin collapse of the housing and stock markets has destroyed more than $12 trillion in wealth since 2007. And wages now are flat-lining amid the recession even as interest charges continue adding to the debt tab.Consumers also have a harder time changing spending patterns than do corporations. Moving to a less costly home or scrapping a gas-guzzling car takes time. “This is a complete change in behavior. … We’re really just in the opening chapters of the deleveraging cycle,” Rosenberg says.The required deleveraging shadows the economy’s growth prospects. During the recent boom, consumption accounted for nearly 70% of economic output. With consumers pulling back, it’s not clear what will replace that lost spending. The Obama administration, hoping for a surge of investment sparked by health care reform and “green” energy opportunities, forecasts rapid growth of 5% in 2010 and 2011.But many are skeptical. “It’s very hard for me to see the basis for that,” says Dean Baker of the left-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research.http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/credit/2009-07-06-usa-spending-debt_N.htm

Everyone has an opinion and sometimes when writing one, it can come across in a way not intended. All opinions should be respected and if not, then don’t respond in a way that suggests someone is stupid, needs help, needs counsleing, etc…if another’s opinion bothers you. Take away what makes sense and not what does not. SWK and GSM offer some great insight as almost all who post here do, but the tone and frquency of personnal attacks seems to be increasing on this site.

52% of Walmart employess get some sort of health insurance. They are proposing health insurance now for its workers based on some metric that determines how profitable an employee is… lol ….

I think it is pretty obvious what sector is not in trouble … that would be your Federal Government.

You mean which segment is not in trouble YET. With tax collections headed South, and demand for federal $’s headed North, there is plenty of trouble ahead. Actually, is it here now, just temporarily covered with a band-aid.Independent Contractor

U.S. House May Include Surtax on Wealthy in Health-Care PackageJuly 7 (Bloomberg) — House Ways and Means Committee members are likely to propose a surtax on high-income Americans to help pay for an overhaul of the health-care system, according to people familiar with the plan.The tax would be similar to, yet much smaller than, a surtax proposed in 2007 by Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel, a person familiar with the committee’s talks said. That plan would have added at least a 4 percent levy on incomes exceeding $200,000, and was projected to reap as much as $832 billion over 10 years.Two people familiar with closed-door talks by committee Democrats said a House bill probably will include a surtax on incomes [household] exceeding $250,000, as Congress seeks ways to pay for changes to a health-care system that accounts for almost 18 percent of the U.S. economy. By targeting wealthier Americans, a surtax may hold more appeal for House Democrats than a Senate proposal to tax some employer-provided health benefits…According to the Tax Policy Center, a Washington research group, about 4.3 million of 150 million U.S. households filing tax returns will earn more than $200,000 this year…Mark Weinberger, vice chairman of New York-based Ernst & Young LLP, said that while Republicans won’t back higher tax rates, House Democrats at this point don’t need bipartisan support.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=a3wUXb42NPX0

If you’d like a complete pix of what Rosie sees for America’s foreseeable economic future, it’s here, today, on Squawk Box:http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/david-rosenberg-on-squawk-box/

The Big Picture athttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07…cds-1994-2008/has an investment graph today–that includes stock dividends–showing the “S&P500 vs CDs (1994-2008)”.Says Barry Ritholtz:Imagine two people who added $10,000 to their investment accounts on January 1st, every year for the past 15 years.One of them is risk averse. They put the money into Certificates of Deposits, getting a few percentage points each year, but the principal is insured.The other is less risk averse; they put money into an S&P500 Index each year.Who comes out ahead? The answer might surprise you…

And it ain’t good.

ongoing Itulip debate on Political Correctness- Eastern VariantGhost of Marx haunts China’s riotsBy Jian JunboSHANGHAI – The weekend violence that has left 156 people dead and more than 816 injured in Urumqi, capital of northwestern Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, is the latest example of growing conflicts between China’s majority Han ethnic group and ethnic minorities.At the heart of the escalating problem are China’s antiquated policies towards its ethnic minorities – a raft of Marxist measures that are now pleasing neither the ethnic Han, nor the minorities. As China’s gargantuan economy has advanced, former leader Mao Zedong’s vision of political and economic equality between Han and non-Han has gradually been undermined.The end result could be seen on the bloody streets of Urumqi…China ethnic riots news capture (Warning: Graphic)http://www.iTulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10706As of Monday evening, at least 156 people were found dead and more than 800 others injured, including armed police officers, the Xinjiang Public Security Department said. More than 50 dead bodies were found in back streets and alleys, officials said, adding grimly that the toll may rise.

How Al Gore lives really has no bearing on the validity of what he has to say about the environment. Snide comments like that are really unnecessary.SWK

Fair comment. I think many of us sometimes come across in our posts as more abrasive or intemperate than we mean to be. I also figure many of us are going through personal hardships of one kind or another, or simply the sorts of ordinary difficulties and frustrations people face every day, and use the anonimity of a forum like this to blow off a little steam. Surely most of those who post here, deep down, are not caustic, sensitive, and impatient jerks. but thoughtful folks with highly varied views, experiences, and backgrounds who yearn to see the world a better place. We can all learn from each other, and should strive to be more respectful of one another, even while we may vehemently dispute one another’s particular views.SWK

This is a great interview- he goes into detail about the impact of NO JOBS and why there will be no jobs for long time.

I’m just wondering if the word “millions” doesn’t kind of take the air out of this story. Significant figures for Goldman involve at least nine digits to the left of the decimal point.

As I posted the other day and others seemed to slam me on eliminating shorting which morphed into a gambling discussion basically and thepros and cons of shorting and exotic instruments and exotic stock. its one thing for shiller to provide good data on current state of housing, but its another to use it like this, in what amounts to basically another gambling/ponzi scheme and yet it legal i suppose to do so. It is thinking, and crap like this that continues to foster what avergae joe american sees as excessive greed and dishonesty by the ENTIE financial system and markets.I had heard about this 2 months or so ago, but didnt actually beleive it would launch… So if you wish to particiapte do so at your own risk and on the backs of those Averge JOE American famailies loosing thier homes…the following discussion from: playshttp://www.businessinsider.com/robert-shillers-new-housing-etfs-are-a-dangerous-ripoff-2009-7Robert Shiller’s New Housing ETFs Are A Dangerous Ripoff (UMM, DMM)UMM Jul 7 2009, 04:15 PM EDT14.00 Change % Change-3.20 -18.60%DMM Jul 7 2009, 04:15 PM EDT36.47 Change % Change+3.07 +9.19%Allow me to introduce you to an investment product so disgracefully ridiculous that one could only assume it was launched on a dare.Very quietly, on June 30th 2009, some firm called MacroMarkets LLC (co-founded by the otherwise well-regarded Robert Shiller) launched two ETFs that purport to be able to give investors 300% of the return or it’s inverse of the S&P/ Case-Shiller Composite-10 Home Price Index.In other words, buying one of these plutonium bomb experiments is supposed to let the investor grab a triple helping of whatever the housing market in 10 metro areas does in a given day.I’m sorry, but if you’re wondering where the line should be drawn on this stuff for sanity’s sake, it is literally right here. Are you guys kidding me?In case you enjoy car accidents or slow-motion trainwrecks, I’ll give you the ticker symbols:MacroShares Major Metro Housing Up (UMM)andMacroShares Major Metro Housing Down (DMM)AKA Dumb and Dumber, AKA The Two Horsemen of the ETF Apocalypse, AKA Little Boy and Fat Man (yes, a Hiroshima/ Nagasaki reference).I’m in a rage right now over the launch of these two products and I hope those financial journalists who are able/ willing to spend the time accurately dissecting these two things will do so to the full extent if for no reason other than to prevent the needless losses that I believe both will generate at the expense of naive investors.Why am I so angered by the fact that these Frankenstein creations were permitted to slither out of the freakshow tent they belong under?How about these factors for a start:Lack of serious price discovery? Check.Lack of actual underlying real estate holdings? Check.1.25% expense ratio? Check.Disclaimers in the prospectus that absolve these instruments of any responsibility for not being able to perform the way they are supposed to? Check.“Don’t worry brah, these are triples! You can flip ‘em 5 seconds after you buy ‘em! Party on!”Oh, and before you tell me that these products are a good way for homeowners to “hedge” the value of their own homes…I’ll ask you whether or not you believe thata) a triple-short product truly has the ability to accomplish this objective for any period longer than one trading day?orb) the housing market in Phoenix is exactly the same as the housing market in Lanford, Michigan or Quahog, Rhode Island or Smurf Village for that matter?How do these instruments (claim to) work exactly? Here’s David Van Knapp’s explanation on Seeking Alpha:Unlike most ETFs, Up and Down do not invest directly in a relevant underlying asset such as stocks, bonds, or houses. Instead, they invest in short-term Treasury securities and overnight repurchase agreements. The paired trusts have a binding agreement to pledge assets to one another over time, according to a predetermined formula that is driven by changes in the housing index, based on the movement of housing prices. This transfer of value back and forth gives “investors” exposure to the direction of U.S. home prices.The structure resembles a see-saw as the assets are shuffled between the paired trusts. Because of the pairing requirement, an equal number of shares for each fund will be created. Because of the leverage factor, the Up and Down ETFs will experience changes of 3x the changes in the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Home Price Index.Am I being Punk’d? Is Ashton Kutcher gonna pop out from behind my Bloomberg terminal with a camera crew?Oh, and here’s a snapshot of how Dumb and Dumber are performing today, as of this 2:15 writing on July 7th:DMM up 9.94% on the dayUMM down 20% on the dayI see, so had you shorted both at the close yesterday, you’d be up 10% right now on the day. Inverse my foot. This is garbage and someone should be held accountable.MacroMarkets has tried this type of thing already and I offer condolences for the investors who got involved with some of their other failed products.From an otherwise-flattering portrait of Shiller in Fortune Magazine today:MacroMarkets has been down this road before. In 2006 it offered MacroShares that tracked the rise and fall in oil prices. But in 2008, after oil prices soared from $88 to $145 in only five months — an event that the MacroShares were not designed to handle — MacroMarkets wound them down. The company introduced another pair of oil MacroShares in July 2008, but they attracted few traders and were liquidated in June.Bob Shiller comes off like a true believer in this concept of being able to hedge everything in life, but many times, the execution of such an idealistic goal falls far short of the intention. In this case, the execution may literally subvert the intention as these wrecking balls cut their destructive swathe though the middle class investors they are being marketed to.How about this, I’m going to launch an ETF that lets you bet on what I’ll have for dinner tonight. How will we achieve this goal? Will we use spaghetti and meatball futures and arcane swaps contracts that nobody monitors? Yeah, sure…something like that. But don’t worry, it’ll be triple long or short, so you can coast off the volatility that the churning acids in my stomach produce as I consume the plate of food.Why don’t we launch ETFs based on the Boston Bruins win/loss record for the 2010 season, or how about a Jon and Kate reconcilliation target date index-linked fund?How about we just place a Guiness Book of World Records-sized roulette wheel on the corner of Wall and Broad and see how much more of America’s wealth we can vaporize before this decade’s end.Is no one else disgusted? Hello?Bueller?Sources:ETFs That Bet on Housing (Seeking Alpha)MacroMarkets LLC Official WebsiteDon’t Blame Bob Shiller (Fortune)

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/tell-wells-fargo-bank-of-america-jp.htmlthis Mish is lunatic. would you accept IOUs from gov? no, not me. IOUs is not currency. IOUs is probably not fix-income/debt backed by collateral or high interest to compensate high risk or have some protection. Accepting IOUs as currency will only guarantee absolute loss at XX% (38%? 50%? 62% or 100% loss). IOUs can not be worthless? wanna bet? so how can you blame banks not accepting it. California has to balance the budget than looking for easy IOUs way out.

United StatesAmerica’s Fiscal Train WreckJuly 06, 2009By Richard Berner | New YorkAmerica’s long-awaited fiscal train wreck is now underway. Depending on policy actions taken now and over the next few years, federal deficits will likely average as much as 6% of GDP through 2019, contributing to a jump in debt held by the public to as high as 82% of GDP by then – a doubling over the next decade. Worse, barring aggressive policy actions, deficits and debt will rise even more sharply thereafter as entitlement spending accelerates relative to GDP. Keeping entitlement promises would require unsustainable borrowing, taxes or both, severely testing the credibility of our policies and hurting our long-term ability to finance investment and sustain growth. And soaring debt will force up real interest rates, reducing capital and productivity and boosting debt service. Not only will those factors steadily lower our standard of living, but they will imperil economic and financial stability.United StatesAmerica’s Fiscal Train WreckFamiliar challenges. Sound familiar? Warning about these challenges has long been a staple for economists. Five years ago, for example, I summarized my concerns about our coming fiscal problems, along with the interplay among them and unexpected longevity, inadequate thrift and saving infrastructure, mediocre education outcomes, and inadequate energy policy (see America’s Long-Term Challenges, May 21 and May 24, 2004). I was merely the latest in a long line of alarmists; for example, Pete Peterson famously noted more than 20 years ago that “America has let its infrastructure crumble, its foreign markets decline, its productivity dwindle, its savings evaporate, and its budget and borrowing burgeon. And now the day of reckoning is at hand” (see “The Morning After,” Atlantic Monthly, October 1987). The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has since 1997 – under directors from both sides of the aisle – carefully laid out ever-more depressing fiscal scenarios in its annual Long Term Budget Outlook, the latest of which appeared last week.The problem, ironically, is that the day of reckoning hasn’t come. This has seriously undermined doomsayers’ credibility and, more importantly, it has made the electorate and elected officials complacent about the threat from unsustainable fiscal policies. Some even proclaimed that “deficits don’t matter.”Fast forward to today. Yet the last five years have brought our ever-distant fiscal crisis rapidly forward. Some of the deterioration is obviously cyclical: Courtesy of the financial crisis and recession, aggressive fiscal stimulus, and ongoing military outlays, the federal deficit has ballooned to US$1.8 trillion or 13% of GDP in fiscal 2009. But the bulk of the threat is structural: The fiscal stimulus package included spending increases with minimal bang for the buck, leaving more debt than growth. In its FY2010 budget, the administration proposes to extend several tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003, provide relief from the alternative minimum tax, and increase both mandatory and discretionary spending compared with current law. Most important, by 2019 the full force of rising entitlement outlays and debt service will begin to hit the budget. No rosy growth scenario will provide sufficient resources to meet all the claims on future federal revenue. And while tax hikes or a broader tax base will likely be part of the solution, the real cure is to curb the growth of entitlement spending.Against that backdrop, voters and politicians are nervous: Two recent polls suggest that Americans are more worried about deficits than healthcare by a ratio of 2:1. But despite voters’ deficit anxiety, near-term action to reduce long-term deficits seems highly unlikely for two reasons. First, no one wants to endanger a still-fragile economy by raising revenues or cutting spending until they are sure of economic recovery. Second, while there is no shortage of fiscal scolds inside the Beltway, the political will to change popular entitlement programs is still absent.Healthcare the main culprit. Analysis of those programs makes it easy to see why. The rise in federal healthcare outlays under Medicare and Medicaid is the main long-term factor boosting deficits. These popular programs create a safety net for the elderly and disadvantaged that has been a band-aid for our flawed system of financing healthcare.The base is already large: In 2010, some 100 million Americans will be enrolled in Medicare, Medicaid and SCHIP (the State Children’s Health Insurance Program), and outlays amount to 5% of GDP. Longer term, Medicare enrollment will rise significantly as the population ages. More importantly, future per capita cost growth for both programs is well in excess of per capita GDP, meaning that outlays for these three programs will double to 10% of GDP by 2035 and nearly double again by 2080. Translated into budget outcomes, according to CBO, these programs will account for virtually all of the likely growth in primary federal spending – total spending less interest on debt held by the public – in relation to GDP, and thus all the likely expansion of the deficit and debt. In contrast, social security cost increases will play a relatively minor supporting role.There is no lack of options to alter the unsustainable path for Medicare and Medicaid outlays. At the end of 2008, for example, CBO analyzed 115 of them, any handful of which could significantly slow the growth of spending or find the means to pay for it. To name two: Raising the age of eligibility for Medicare by two years (to 67) starting in 2014 would save US$85 billion by 2019. Limiting the tax exclusion for employment-based health insurance to amounts below the 75th percentile for such premiums and doing the same for health-insurance deductibles for the self employed would net US$452 billion over 2009-18. Note that the second option would raise additional revenue, but would not address burgeoning entitlement spending. Yet the prospects for actually adopting any of these measures are dim. There is no serious discussion in Washington of, or appetite for, curbing eligibility for federal health programs. Nor, more important, is there the will to rein in the growth of per capita costs.Meanwhile, the current healthcare reform effort aims at the apparently conflicting goals of curbing costs and increasing access and quality. In the long run, those goals may turn out to be complementary. But in the near term, politics likely dictate that increasing access will take priority over cutting costs. And increasing access to today’s health options will be expensive. For example, preliminary CBO estimates of Subtitles A through D of Title I of the proposed “Affordable Health Choices Act” indicate that expanding access to health insurance for 39 million Americans by granting subsidies will cost US$1 trillion over the next decade. Proposals to cut costs may yet emerge to fulfill the president’s requirement that any healthcare reform be deficit-neutral. But political agreement will be hard to come by; witness the storm of opposition to a “public insurance plan” when the outline for any such plan is still vague. Thus, in the short-to-intermediate term, increasing access first means bigger deficits are likely. Pundits are describing the president’s ability to deliver a healthcare reform package that improves Americans’ lives and contains costs as a defining moment for his leadership. As I see it, it is also a bellwether for our willingness to tackle our fiscal challenges.Deficit disorder. America’s now chronically rising deficit will almost surely expand debt beyond the appetite of global investors to hold it without significant concessions in the form of higher interest rates or a big enough decline in the dollar to make it look cheap, or both. Soaring deficits and debt imply higher real interest rates. That hasn’t happened in the current recession, of course, because of the weakness in private credit demands resulting from the collapse of corporate external financing needs and the deleveraging of the American consumer. But rates likely will rise significantly when recovery begins to lift private credit demands. Standard estimates suggest that a 20-point sustained increase in debt/GDP – what we will experience between 2008 and 2010 – will boost real rates by 70-110bp.But many question whether rising deficits and debt will have significant longer-term market consequences. Optimists cite the example of Japan, where massive deficits boosted government debt to 160% of GDP with apparently no effect on interest rates. The comparison is not apt for two reasons. First, Japan’s lost deflationary decade pulled down nominal yields, but there were serious consequences for real yields. Real 10-year JGB yields averaged 1.7% over that period, much higher than the 30bp of annual real growth experienced in Japan. Indeed, my colleague Robert Feldman points out that this positive gap between real rates and real growth clearly boosted Japan’s deficits and debt unsustainably (see Fiscal Reform and the r-g Problem, June 17, 2005). Second, Japan’s massive current account surplus, which averaged 3% of GDP, means that Japan has no need to rely on foreign saving inflows.In contrast, America’s budget deficits are worsening our persistent internal and external saving-investment imbalances. Our chronic external deficit has shrunk to 2.9% of GDP in recession, but rebounding oil prices and imports suggest it will grow in recovery. Even a coming sea change in consumer behavior and the incipient rise in our personal saving rate to 7-10% of disposable income (5-8% of GDP) won’t be enough to offset federal dissaving. State and local governments are awash in red ink, now more than 1% of GDP and growing. Consequently, we still need sizeable inflows of saving from abroad to finance federal deficits.Fiscal credibility deteriorating. Some are concerned that our reckless fiscal policy will trigger a downgrade of the US sovereign debt rating, making the financing of our burgeoning deficits more difficult. While worries that the US will default on its debt are illogical, global investors and officials are concerned about the credibility and the sustainability of our fiscal policies. So am I. They fear that we will adopt policies that will undermine the dollar and the domestic value of dollar-denominated assets through a combination of risk premiums and inflation. I worry about that too, although such policies probably would be accidental rather than deliberate. As a result, interest rates may have to rise significantly to compensate investors, including reserve portfolio managers and sovereign wealth funds, for such dangers. While the dollar will for now retain its reserve-currency status, such concerns put it at risk.http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html#anchor098c0c3c-6a29-11de-9228-3fb01e8a07e2

Barack Obama is more than half way through his first year in office. What grade would you give him for his performance to date?A 7%B 7%C 13%D 21%F 52%http://www.houmatoday.com/Number of votes cast: 1554

This sort of “polling” is utterly unreliable statistically, because it is not random. It is limited to the predispositions of those who visit that site, and further filtered by those motivated to take the “poll” (who are more often going to be folks that want to grouse about the topic at hand).SWK

Good post MM. THanks.

Well said kilgores

Still waiting for that 600 we discussed a few months back, OR.

and my typing stinks too much novacaine in my system i guess form the tooth docotr…lol

The Role of the International Republican Institute (IRI) in the Honduran CoupThe International Republican Institute talks of “coup” in Honduras, months beforeBy Eva GolingerThe International Republican Institute (IRI), considered the international branch of the U.S. Republican Party, and one of the four “core groups” of the congressionally created and funded National Endowment for Democracy (NED), apparently knew of the coup d’etat in Honduras against President Zelaya well in advance. IRI is well known for its role in the April 2002 coup d’etat against Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and its funding and strategic advising of the principal organizations involved in the ouster of President Jean Bertrand Aristide of Haiti in 2004. In both cases, IRI funded and/or trained and advised political parties and groups that were implicated in the violent, undemocratic overthrow of democratically elected presidents.After the 2002 coup d’etat occured in Venezuela, IRI president at the time, George Folsom, sent out a celebratory press release claiming, “The Institute has served as a bridge between the nation’s political parties and all civil society groups to help Venezuelans forge a new democratic future…” Hours later, after the coup failed and the people of Venezuelan rescued their president, who had been kidnapped and imprisoned on a military base, and reinstalled constitutional order, IRI regretted its premature, public applause for the coup. One of its principal funders, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), was furious that IRI had publicly revealed the U.S. government had provided funding and support for the coup leaders. NED President Carl Gershman was so irritated with IRI’s blunder, that he sent out a memo to Folsom, chastising him: “By welcoming [the coup] – indeed, without any apparent reservations – you unnecessarily interjected IRI into the sensitive internal politics o Venezuela”. Gershman would have much prefered that NED and IRI’s role in fomenting and supporting the coup against President Chávez have remained a secret.IRI, chaired by Senator John McCain, was created in 1983 as part of the National Endowment for Democracy’s mission to “promote democracy around the world”, a mandate from President Ronald Reagan. In reality, one of NED’s founders, Allen Weinstein, put it this way in a 1991 interview with the Washington Post, “A lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA.” IRI’s own history, according to its website (www.iri.org) also explains that its original work was in Latin America, at a time when the Reagan administration was under heavy scrutiny and pressure from the U.S. Congress for funding paramilitary groups, dictatorships and death squads in Central and South America to install U.S.-friendly regimes and supress leftist movements. “Congress responded to President Reagan’s call in 1983 when it created the National Endowment for Democracy to support aspiring democrats worldwide. Four nonprofit, nonpartisan democracy institutes were formed to carry out this work – IRI, the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), and the American Center for International Labor Solidarity (ACILS).”“In its infancy, IRI focused on planting the seeds of democracy in Latin America. Since the end of the Cold War, IRI has broadened its reach to support democracy and freedom around the globe. IRI has conducted programs in more than 100 countries.”In its initial days, IRI, along with the other coup groups of the NED, funded organizations in Nicaragua to foment the destabilization of the Sandinista government. Journalist Jeremy Bigwood explained part of this role in his article, “No Strings Attached?”, “’When the rhetoric of democracy is put aside, NED is a specialized tool for penetrating civil society in other countries down to the grassroots level’ to achieve U.S. foreign policy goals, writes University of California-Santa Barbara professor William Robinson in his book, A Faustian Bargain. Robinson was in Nicaragua during the late ‘80s and watched NED work with the U.S.-backed Nicaraguan opposition to remove the leftist Sandinistas from power during the 1990 elections.”The evidence of IRI’s role in the 2002 coup d’etat in Venezuela has been well documented and investigated. Proof of such involvement, which is still ongoing in terms of IRI’s work, funding, strategic advising and training of opposition political parties in Venezuela, is available through documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act posted here: , and also available in my book, The Chávez Code: Cracking U.S. Intervention in Venezuela (Olive Branch Press 2006). None of the claims or evidence regarding IRI’s role in fomenting and supporting the April 2002 in Venezuela and its ongoing support of the Venezuelan opposition has ever been disclaimed by the institution, primarily because all evidence cited comes from IRI and NED’s own internal documentation obtained under FOIA.Hence, when the recent coup d’etat occured in Honduras, against democratically-elected President Manuel Zelaya, there was little doubt of U.S. fingerprints. IRI’s name appeared as a recipient of a $700,000 Latin American Regional Grant in 2008-2009 from NED to promote “good governance” programs in countries including Honduras. An additional grant of $550,000 to work with “think tanks” and “pressure groups” in Honduras to influence political parties was also given by the NED to IRI in 2008-2009, specifically stating, IRI will support initiatives to implement [political] positions into the 2009 campaigns. IRI will place special emphasis on Honduras, which has scheduled presidential and parliamentary elections in November 2009.” That is clear direct intervention in internal politics in Honduras.The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) also provides approximately $49 million annually to Honduras, a large part of which is directed towards “democracy promotion” programs. The majority of the recipients of this aid in Honduras, which comes in the form of funding, training, resources, strategic advice, communications counseling, political party strengthening and leadership training, are organizations directly linked to the recent coup d’etat, such as the Consejo Nacional Anticorrupción, the Archbishop of Tegucigalpa, the Honduran Private Enterprise Council (COHEP), the Council of University Deans, the Confederation of Honduran Workers (CTH), the National Convergence Forum, the Chamber of Commerce (FEDECAMARA), the Association of Private Media (AMC), the Group Paz y Democracia and the student group Generación X Cambio. These organizations form part of a coalition self-titled “Unión Cívica Democrática de Honduras” (Civil Democratic Union of Honduras) that has publicly backed the coup against President Zelaya.IRI’s press secretary, Lisa Gates, responded to claims that IRI funded or aided (which also involves non-monetary aid, such as training, advising and providing resources) groups involved in the Honduran coup as “false reports”. However, there are several interesting links between the republican organization and the violent coup d’etat against President Zelaya that do indicate the institute’s involvement, as well as to the above mentioned funding that exceeds $1 million during just this year. In addition to its presence on the ground in Honduras as part of its “good governance” and “political influence” programs, IRI Regional Program Director, Latin America and the Carribean, Alex Sutton, has recently been closely involved with many of the organizations in the region that have backed the Honduran coup. Sutton was a featured speaker at a recent 3-day conference held in Venezuela by the U.S.-funded ultraconservative Venezuelan organization CEDICE (Centro para la Divulgación de Conocimiento Económico). CEDICE’s director, Rocío Guijarra, was one of the principal executors of the 2002 coup d’etat against President Hugo Chávez, and Guijarra personally signed a decree installing a dictatorship in the country, which led to the coup’s overthrow by the people and loyal armed forces of Venezuela. The conference Sutton participated in, held from May 28-29 in Venezuela was attended by leaders of Latin America’s ultra-conservative movement, ranging from Bolivian ex president Jorge Quiroga, who has called for President Evo Morales of Bolivia’s overthrow on several occasions, Peruvian Mario Vargas Llosa and his son Alvaro, both of whom have publicly expressed support for the coup against President Zelaya in Honduras, and numerous leaders of the Venezuelan opposition, the majority of whom are well known for their involvement in the April 2002 coup and subsequent destabilization attempts. The majority of those present at the CEDICE conference in May 2009, have publicly expressed support for the recent coup against President Zelaya.But a more damning piece of evidence linking IRI to the Honduran coup, is a video clip posted on the institute’s website at http://www.iri.org/multimedia.asp. The clip or podcast, features a slideshow presentation given by Susan Zelaya-Fenner, assistant program officer at IRI, on March 20, 2009, discussing the “good governance” program in Honduras. Curiously, at the beginning of the presentation, Zelaya-Fenner explains what she considers “a couple of interesting facts about Honduras.” These include, “Honduras is a very overlooked country in a small region. Honduras has had more military coups than years of independence, it has been said. However, parodoxically, more recently it has been called a pillar of stability in the region, even being called the U.S.S. Honduras, as it avoided all of the crisis that its neighbors went through during the civil wars in the 1980s.”Important to note is that what Zelaya-Fenner refers to as “U.S.S. Honduras” and “avoid[ing] all of the crisis that its neighbords went through during the civil wars in the 1980s” was because the U.S. government, CIA and Pentagon utilized Honduras as the launching pad for the attacks on Honduras’ neighbors. U.S. Ambassador at the time, John Negroponte, and Colonel Oliver North, trained, funded and planned the paramilitary missions of the death squads that were used to assassinate, torture, persecute, disappear and neutralize tens of thousands of farmers and “suspected” leftists in Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.Zelaya-Fenner continues, “Thus, Honduras has been more recently stable, and it’s always been poor, which means that it’s below the radar, and gets little attention. The current president, Manuel Zelaya and his buddies, the leftists in the Latin American region have caused a lot of political destabilization recently in the country. He is a would-be emulator of Hugo Chavez and Hugo Chavez’ social revolution. He has spent the better part of this administration trying to convince the Honduran people, who tend to be very practical and very ‘center’ that the Venezuelan route is the way to go. Zelaya’s leftist leanings further exarcerbate an already troubled state. Corruption is rampant, crime is at all time highs. Drug trafficking and related violence have begun to spill over from Mexico. And there’s a very real sense that the country is being purposefully destabilized from within, which is very new in recent Honduran history. Coups are thought to be so three decades ago until now (laughs, audience laughs), again.”Did she really say that? Yes, you can hear it yourself on the podcast. Is it merely a coincidence that the coup against President Zelaya occured just three months after this presentation? State Department officials have admitted that they knew the coup was in the works for the past few months. Sub-secretary of State Thomas Shannon was in Honduras the week before the coup, apparently trying to broker some kind of deal with the coup planners to find another “solution” to the “problem”. Nevertheless, they continued funding via NED and USAID to those very same groups and military sectors involved in the coup. It is not a hidden fact that Washington was unhappy with President Zelaya’s alliances in the region, principally with countries such as Venezuela and Nicaragua. It is also public knowledge that President Zelaya was in the process of removing the U.S. military presence from the Soto Cano airbase, using a fund from the Bolivarian Alliance of the Americas (ALBA – Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Dominica, Honduras, Nicaragua, St. Kitts, Antigua & Barbados and Venezuela) to convert the strategically important Pentagon base into a commercial airport.IRI’s Zelaya-Fenner explains the strategic importance of Honduras in her presentation, “Why does Honduras matter? A lot of people ask this question, even Honduran historians and experts. Some might argue that it doesn’t and globally it might be hard to counter. However, the country is strategic to regional stability and this is an election year in Honduras. It’s a strategic time to help democrats with a small “d”, at a time when democracy is increasingly coming under attack in the region.”There is no doubt that the coup against President Zelaya is an effort to undermine regional governments implementing alternative models to capitalism that challenge U.S. concepts of representative democracy as “the best model”. Countries such as Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador, are building successful models based on participatory democracy that ensure economic and social justice, and prioritize collective social prosperity and human needs over market economics. These are the countries, together now with Honduras, that have been victims of NED, USAID, IRI and other agencies’ interventions to subvert their prospering democracies.http://www.chavezcode.com/2009/07/role-of-international-republican.htmlObviously, you ALL have “skin in this game”.A “GAME”, Morbid? It’s BLOODSPORT for all the money and power in the hands of a few oligarchs who accept no limits to their power to oppress and theive from the working peoples, and your tax dollars are making it possible for democracy to be MURDERED along with PEOPLE who were living and breathing before the coup plotters killed them using your money.So once again I ask you to answer to why you are presenting support for anti-democratic forces and the overthrow of democratically elected governors. You’ve felt compelled to interrupt a timely and factual presentation of severely under-reported news of severely underestimated and under-recognized import by offering up disinformation, misinformation, uninformed opinion and the kind of bigoted spin that relies on people never consulting historical fact so they remain without the context and perspective they need in order to understand events and the future impact on their lives of possible outcomes, so it is now incumbent upon you to answer why you do this thing.It’s put up or shut up time, Pal.

By the way, Morbid, if you won’t answer, I will only be able to conclude that you are vocalizing your support for anti-democratic forces violating the rule of law because you don’t actually like democracy at all – in fact, your values stand in direct opposition to the democratic ideals America loves to claim she stands for, exactly as your predatory cheap-labor social-darwinist ideology demands and commands.

It is no part of goodness to suffer fools and tools gladly, politely, or in silence, because their obfuscations and misinformation actively enable and protect the corruption and lies that cause immense unnecessary suffering for billions of human beings.There is no reason why tyranny, tyrants, and their supporters and apologists should not at once be hurled to the dustbin of history.

GSM:Whatever. I didn’t mean to offend you. I didn’t label YOU bombastic — I said I thought your generalizations were so.You seem really sensitive about not having a formal university education, but there is no reason for you to lash out at me, or strive to denigrate the honorable and majestic profession of which I am proud to be a member. You have a fairly good command of the English language and you obviously know how to express yourself, but you sound like a petty adolescent which a huge chip on his shoulder when you rant about my status as a lawyer.It astounds me that even an intended compliment — my earlier comment that “I generally enjoy reading your posts and agree with the gist of much of what you say” — would compel you to declare vociferously that you don’t seek my approval for what you post. No need to worry about others considering you to be a mere serf, as you will consider YOURSELF to be so for as long as you continue to feel inferior to and victimized by those you characterize as members of the “educated classes.”SWK

Obama is below F. he is pursuing same old democratic policy. no change, no nothing. opposite of him is Bush pursued same old republican policy. american people voted wrong.

GSM, thanks for an excellent post (2009-07-05 23:08:11) cutting through all the chaff that one is exposed to while speaking the truth. It’s important to remember that the words of criticism used to denounce your position– “abrasive,” “caustic,” “vehement,” “simplistic,” bombastic,” “self-righteous,” “intemperate”…are more likely descriptive words of the idle “can’t-we-just-get-along” supporters of the system that is dragging us to Hell.Their arguments are compromise, surrender, apology, weakness, and defeat of our principles. If this system of corrupted government you so accurately describe is allowed to continue to grind down justice, opportunity and integrity–consistently supported by these voices of socialism—it is clear they’ll be plowed under with the rest of us.“When we are born, we cry, that we are come to this great stage of fools.” King Lear vi

Gu,Actually you are correct about my having an anti-democratic outlook. I stopped voting in 1992 in USA elections because I concluded that the entire enterprise was hijacked and bankrupt.These days I would characterize myself more as a Voltaire Economist.

Voltaire distrusted democracy, which he saw as propagating the idiocy of the masses. To Voltaire, only an enlightened monarch or an enlightened absolutist, advised by philosophers like himself, could bring about change as it was in the king’s rational interest to improve the power and wealth of his subjects and kingdom. Voltaire essentially believed enlightened despotism to be the key to progress and change.Voltaire considered himself a deist. He did not believe that absolute faith, based upon any particular or singular religious text or tradition of revelation, was needed to believe in God. In fact, Voltaire’s focus was instead on the idea of a universe based on reason and a respect for nature reflected the contemporary pantheism, increasingly popular throughout the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries and which continues in a form of deism today known as “Voltairean Pantheism.”He wrote, “What is faith? Is it to believe that which is evident? No. It is perfectly evident to my mind that there exists a necessary, eternal, supreme, and intelligent being. This is no matter of faith, but of reason.”Voltaire died on 30 May 1778. When asked on his deathbed by a priest to renounce the devil and turn to God, he is alleged to have replied, “Now is no time to be making new enemies”.

O Roubini, Roubini, wherefore art thou Roubini?

@found it at prorev : No I had not seen that, but it is a logical extension of the sort of ethics that drive private health care. I’m just glad I live in Canada and have access to excellent care. My mother has had multiple heart surgeries by top flight surgeons (valve replacements over the years due to rheumatic fever in Britain as a child).I have given birth to two children & had a discectomy & my spouse has had a total knee replacement. We do not have crushing debt, never had to stress out during our recovery about how on earth we were going to pay for it and returned to work healthy, happy, productive and debt free. And everyone here has the same access regardless of income. Don’t believe any of the bogus propaganda regarding how bad Canadians have it, utter b.s. My mother would have been dead years ago if she had to rely on the system south of the border. Health care is a human right. No one has the right to profit from others misery. Read up on Tommy Douglas & Norman Bethune if you want a Canadian perspective on health care delivery.

Ho Hum, yawn

New thread.

Honestly, SWK, this post seems over-the-top in superciliousness. You tell GSM not to be so sensitive to his inferior educational status, in effect, but at the same time damn him with faint praise in telling him he has a “fairly good command of the English language.” You seem to be doing a lot of policing of this site recently. Are you a lawyer or a barrister?

Gu. get a life!

So America has become Germany. Way to go, America. Enjoy standing on line to return your Coke bottles for the deposit, and don’t forget to take your cloth bags to the store.

Truth be told, I’ve been a registered Republican twice and a Democrat twice. I have voted more than once for third party candidates over the past 33 years.Sorry if my commentary comes off as an attempt to stifle views with which I disagree. It is not so intended.SWK