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Recent Bloomberg Roubini Interview

6/24/09 – Bloomberg – Nouriel Roubini Says U.S. Economy `Sort of Stabilizing’ (Click here for Video)

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(Bloomberg) –  Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, talks with Bloomberg’s Deirdre Bolton and Tom Keene about the state of the U.S. economy.

Roubini, speaking from London, also discusses Federal Reserve monetary policy, personal savings and the outlook for the U.S. unemployment rate. (Source: Bloomberg)

00:00 U.S. economy “sort of stabilizing”

01:13 Fiscal concerns, deficit, inflation; Fed

06:10 “Most of” Eastern Europe is in “trouble.”

12:13 Health-care spending; personal savings rate

16:11 Trade deficit; exit strategy from stimulus

18:31 Unemployment rate to peak at 11 percent

Running time 20:29

47 Responses to “Recent Bloomberg Roubini Interview”

SoftwarengineerJune 24th, 2009 at 4:23 pm

UNEMPLOYMENT SURE ISN’T STABLEThe cure of past unemployment buildup clearly requires the following:1. More jobs2. Less applicants3. Or bothIs it just my opinion, but isn’t the horrifying unemployment rate in America the root cause to today’s economic mess?Where is the needed job growth to cure our economic mess going to come from, within 1 year from now?

economicminorJune 24th, 2009 at 5:17 pm

Wages are a factor but there are many others which include but are not limited to:an honest and fair exchange rate would be highly beneficial to US jobs… China having an unrealistic peg is non competitive.Some sort of fairness in environmental issues would also help. The US is at a huge disadvantage when some countries can pollute at will and we can’t. This is also a competitive disadvantage.Either NO health care or a National system that removes the burden of national health care from the producers would also make us more competitive.Lowering the cost of government would be highly beneficial especially when government pays with debt because paying that way has a inflationary bias and inflation acts just like a tax on productivity.There are many things that could be done that would be much more beneficial that lowering wages. Lowering wages would only put pressure on buying power and drive down the value of assets which would cause a continuation of the deflationary cycle. Actually what we should be doing is giving more value to productivity so that we can pay for our debts rather than just borrowing more money which has a cost and in affect lowers our disposable incomes.

GuestJune 24th, 2009 at 6:06 pm

so,the financial masters of our universe wake up, pass windand take a dump. in that time they make more money thana working person makes in a year. live with it?one might argue that they create wealth and jobs in thattime that justifies the compensation. really? more likedestroy jobs and wealth and their compensation just continuesto increase. 1 dollar for the worker, 1,724 dollars for thebank thief, 2006 figures. 1970 figures 1 to 40.the right kind of lobbying and cross board seats makes ithappen. so the civilization is sacrificed, live with it?when millions of violent, angry, hungry and uneducated peopleare armed and roaming the streets the opportunity to createa just society will be nothing more than a regretted missedopportunity..http://garynull.org/6 23 09 les leopold guest at minute 24 or so..

MarkJune 24th, 2009 at 6:35 pm

How can we accommodate increased productivity to match the aspirations of sustained economic growth?I’m afraid that the earth isn’t going to agree to our need for infinite growth despite our best intentions :-( Mark

MichelleJune 24th, 2009 at 7:02 pm

@MMCAJust wanting to get back to you on the stop-loss premium amount. Actually I gave you the wrong number, it’s about $12k/mo. for 45 employees eligible for benefits. All of our health care premiums plus self-insured costs average about $1k per month per insured employee (stop-loss, medical, pharmacy, optical, dental, and orthodontic), a far cry from what you’re paying each month for HALF of your employer’s sponsored benefit plan. Your premiums seem misaligned to the actual costs and I wonder if you wouldn’t be better off opting out of your plan and purchasing a high deductible plan yourself.

MM CAJune 24th, 2009 at 7:21 pm

TY Michele- let my digest and play with the numbers… so its costing your employer about 12K per year per employee? When does the insurer kick in – at what cost? i assume the larger bils correct?

economicminorJune 24th, 2009 at 7:30 pm

Mark,I was just discussing the issues of jobs in the US in response to wages having to come down.I believe there are many things that need to be done that are not in aggregate anti earth. All jobs do not need to be in the production of goods. Personally I think the Western World is a little sick about its priorities. Some how people have gotten the notion that more consumer crap means more satisfaction with their lives and in my experience it is just the opposite.I don’t think productivity has to necessarily be anti environment. What we need is for everyone to have a job that is mostly fulfilling. We produce enough food to feed us all and we have plenty of shelter, even though, I think it is ill configured for happy or sustainable. We just need to reconfigure our lifestyles to make sense. As a nation and be the light for the world to follow.So we need food, shelter, heat, cool and a nice place to play and work..Sounds easy but will require a paradigm shift in attitude and that’s about all. The rest will come with time.

MM CAJune 24th, 2009 at 7:34 pm

Wages need to be fair, equitable and support a sustainable buisness model… unfortunaley the model created the past 20-30 years became unsustaibale. WAGE DESTRUCTION ha sbeen occuring since the mid 1980′s while avg american workers thought they were gettign wealthier with 401k’s and rising house values. They then borrowed agianst thier futures at highly riskly levels and accumanled so much debt that it is now blowing up in everyones faces.Waht should a person make to build a car? be a cop? be a nurse?, be a teacher? be a bank teller? be ball player? be a CEO? be a politician? Be a docotr? be a VET? Be a construction worker? The way i see it we base it all on 40 hour work weeks, who is to say someone else works more or less? Work harder get more? educate yourself more and acquire higher skills get more? but how much more and when is enough, enough? tough questions, no easy answers, but the bottom line is Thier are NO JOBS and WAGE DESTRUCTION has taken place. How the heck does it get fixed now that it has been so exposed? i heard today that Food stamp recieptents are up 30% since last year? We getting to the point where we cant even feed thsoe within our own borders…I am totally perplexed on how we creat GOOD JOBS and start producing “THINGS” that people can afford. I can post the horrific JOBS numbers, disect the numbers but it does not make feel good to see the blood in the numbers and knowing it is the chosen few that ahs taken adavantage of our capitalist ways to destroy what stand for and work for. It just plain sucks and all the brilliant minds have come up with nothing so far.

MarkJune 24th, 2009 at 7:41 pm

Econ,I wasn’t necessarily aiming my comments at you, just kind of in general. We need to re-define what “productive” means, dislodge it from being owned by the ruling elite to run their factories.Mark

GuestJune 24th, 2009 at 7:47 pm

How about leveling the wage playing field by imposing a tariff on goods that were made using inequitable labor practices? Treating manufacturing employees like dogs by making them work 7 days a week and 13 hours a day should be “taxed” to discourage the practice. We should not have to compete with that.

AnonymousJune 24th, 2009 at 7:54 pm

Market rally tomorrow??http://www.reuters.com/article/healthNews/idUSTRE55M5EA20090623BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany’s federal agency for infectious diseases said on Tuesday there were signs the H1N1 swine flu virus had started to mutate and warned it could spread in the coming months in a more aggressive form.Experts were concerned about how the flu was developing in Australia and South America, said Joerg Hacker, head of the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases.”It’s possible the virus has mutated. In autumn the mutated form could spread to the northern hemisphere and back to Germany,” Hacker told a news conference in Berlin.

ChignosJune 24th, 2009 at 8:32 pm

A virus has mutated??? Oh, no, call out the military reserves, declare a bank holiday, I mean martial law–a virus may have mutated!!!! It’s never happened before. At least not since the last ten seconds, for sure!(why does anyone repeat any of this media tripe about swine flu?)Who is John Galt? Who is Joerg Hacker?

kilgoresJune 24th, 2009 at 9:15 pm

Unfortunately, Mark, people only seem to think about these things when there is an immediate crisis, and when it’s over, they go back to mindless consumption. When I was first at university in the 1970s, following the Arab Oil Embargo in 1973-74, there were lots of new courses being taught on, e.g., problems of limited fossil fuels resources and alternative energy. Authors such as Hazel Henderson (Creating Alternative Futures) gave voice to the same issues you have been raising regularly here. Then suddenly 1979 came along, so-called conservatism swept America, and all that thinking went out the window, until now. I just hope we’ll make better progress at effecting some genuine changes this time around.SWK

HayesJune 24th, 2009 at 9:18 pm

it is early in the winter e.g. just 48 hours and from various locations in the Southern Hemisphere reports are emerging of mutations of A-H1N1. Meanwhile in Northern Climes it continues to spread unabated when normally influenza viruses are dormant (more or less).latest from ProMEDmore from ProMED

economicminorJune 24th, 2009 at 9:39 pm

Mark,agreeI am just a little bored. Slow news. RE.org is slow too. I broke my collar bone doing a project so have even more time…Besides, we can’t. There is no such thing in nature of sustained growth in finite parameters. The earth is no different than a petri dish, except a lot bigger. The media in a petri dish will only support so much growth. Earth isn’t any different. We are on a huge space ship traveling thru time and space and we better figure out how to make it work out for all of us or we will find ourselves just another extinct species.The entire concept of ever increasing debt which has to have ever increasing growth in economies to retire it is ludicrous. It isn’t even possible mathematically to do when non productive debt was just spent on raw consumption of non renewable resources of which there is a finite quantity. And insanely we base our entire economic growth plan on having this resource not only available on demand but cheap too. Add that to the insane idea that an ever increasing accumulation of capital among the connected (disconnected) who somehow knows where to invest to keep this all going.. What a joke we are telling ourselves! and a sick one at that!Wages are just a small piece of this mix and suggesting that lowering them will make us productive and put people to work is just someone’s wet dream. What would keep China from just lowering the wages of their workers to compensate? After all China is just one big gigantic monopolistic corporation.

AnonymousJune 24th, 2009 at 9:49 pm

Chignos1918… see the trendanyway i just bought some shares of gloves maker hehehe, dont you love it making money through fearmongering.. hey Big Brother do it all the timeaaahh capitalism

Guest :-=-_-=-:June 24th, 2009 at 10:03 pm

mit appears we have hit the wall. no jobs createdor creatable in the private sector because the private sector needs to make a return on money, energy, production costs. the money is all in the hands of the few who do not want to spend it, they want toinvest it to make more money. the problem is someonehas to have money to spend for investors to see returns. that someone was wipedout decades ago and whoever was left standing wasoffered credit, we saw what happened there.if we want to have a rich and complex systemwe need to have a functioning circulatory system,right!so who has money or credit? the —–. whomakes the rules? the ——. who prints themoney? who is the last consumer left standing?the last buyer of the last item in the “market”?when you have all you need where is demand?

Guest :-=-_-=-:June 24th, 2009 at 10:03 pm

mit appears we have hit the wall. no jobs createdor creatable in the private sector because the private sector needs to make a return on money, energy, production costs. the money is all in the hands of the few who do not want to spend it, they want toinvest it to make more money. the problem is someonehas to have money to spend for investors to see returns. that someone was wipedout decades ago and whoever was left standing wasoffered credit, we saw what happened there.if we want to have a rich and complex systemwe need to have a functioning circulatory system,right!so who has money or credit? the —–. whomakes the rules? the ——. who prints themoney? who is the last consumer left standing?the last buyer of the last item in the “market”?when you have all you need where is demand?

Guest :-=-_-=-:June 24th, 2009 at 10:14 pm

and the banks want to regulate themselves andsee that the place to invest is not north america..http://garynull.org/6 24 09 prof. robert auerbachmake sure the date that downloads is correct.perhaps reliable tomorrow. discussion concerningthe fed and their fun and games handing the u.s.a.its balls and head on the same platter.

Guest :-=-_-=-:June 24th, 2009 at 10:14 pm

and the banks want to regulate themselves andsee that the place to invest is not north america..http://garynull.org/6 24 09 prof. robert auerbachmake sure the date that downloads is correct.perhaps reliable tomorrow. discussion concerningthe fed and their fun and games handing the u.s.a.its balls and head on the same platter.

AnonymousJune 24th, 2009 at 11:02 pm

http://health.utah.gov/epi/h1n1flu/sitrep062409.pdfCDC is now estimating that the novel H1N1 virus will be “Category 2” in severity. They are closely watching the situation in the Southern Hemisphere for validation of this estimate. A category 2 pandemic has the following characteristics:• Case fatality ratio of 0.1 percent to less than 0.5 percent.• Between 90,000 and 450,000 deaths in the U.S. (compared with estimated 36,000 deaths during a typical influenza season).• Excess death rate of between 30 to less than 150 per 100,000 people.• Illness rate of between 20 and 40 percent.• Similar to 1957 pandemic.

MichelleJune 24th, 2009 at 11:58 pm

Correct, $12k per employee per year. This also covers their dependents’ expenses, and I haven’t looked at the numbers recently but I’d say you’d be safe to double the 45 employees and average the costs over 90 total insured. We have been paying roughly $40-45k per month for the past 2 years but we budget for a 10% annual increase. So far this year we’re under budget. (Cool!)As for the stop-loss, once an individual exceeds $50k in a calendar year, we stop paying and the stop-loss insurance takes over. Fortunately, this doesn’t happen very frequently – we’ve only had a handful of claims over the years that have exceeded this amount and are the usual suspects – cancer, cancer, cancer and viral meningitis.I realize health care costs differ around the country but we also have employees from coast to coast, so this figure I’ve quoted is somewhat representative of national averages.As you are in California, you already qualify for state-mandated coverage, something we’ve seen our California employees clearly (CLEARLY) take advantage of, and this also is something you may need to consider when crunching your numbers as this inflates our insurance costs even more, unfortunately.

Pecos BankerJune 25th, 2009 at 2:13 am

Question: I was expecting to have one more paycheck after I quit my job. After all, the date on the paycheck is always about one week after the corresponding pay period. Thus I thought I was going to receive a paycheck in early July covering the last couple weeks in June. The fiscal year ends June 30. But no, my employer tells me that they pay on a cash basis and that I received 26 paychecks during fiscal year 08-09. However the first paycheck in July 08 was for the last couple of weeks of June 08, if you look at the paystub.Interestingly, the same thing happened to all my fellow employees who were either fired or quit. Recently, I have heard that this is happening all over the place. I smell a rat. My employer, where I have been employed over 10 years, will not tell me when they went to a cash basis. I smell a rat. Naturally, the change works in the employer’s favor. Why bother saying the pay is for the previous two weeks on the paystub?Anyone else caught by this suspicious sleight of hand? I feel robbed. I don’t believe this sh-t about cash basis, given that the check stub makes clear for what pay period the payment applies.

The AlarmistJune 25th, 2009 at 2:49 am

Tenth !!!”Sort of stabilising” … kind of reminds me of the line, “a little bit pregnant. Either it is, or it isn’t stabilising.Just got off the phone with a nervous banker … wave 2 of the credit crunch is right around the corner.

The AlarmistJune 25th, 2009 at 2:55 am

You are assuming your premise is correct, i.e. more jobs = better economy.The policy makers seem to have a different idea, i.e. the same or more money in the system = better economy.So, who needs jobs. Just keep shoveling tons of money to a handful of bankers, who will then pump some of it into the system through their own pockets.As for the rest of us, we should be happy with the little golden crumbs that happen to fall our way.Wasn’t Big O supposed to be about spreading some of that wealth around? When did Timmy G spike his Kool-Aid?

AnonymousJune 25th, 2009 at 4:56 am

Don’t overanalyze, it just sounds like you were cheated. It’s hard to fight, isn’t it, now that you have no income to pay a lawyer, and aren’t even inside the company any more. And saving one paycheck, times the number of people fired, is a nice chunk of change for them.But since you’re in touch with others, why don’t you get together a class action? If it’s a big enough class, you could get a law firm to take the case on contingency. That’s the way to go, in my amateur opinion.

GuestJune 25th, 2009 at 5:46 am

sort of like the next wave of the swine flu…Actually so far the amount of dead people is a bit larger than from a seasonal flu (a far cry from the 1918 thingy). With a regular seasonal flu we could also have thousands infected – it is just that those numbers are not that openly tracked and publiziced. But better to be careful since no one can know how bad this virus is, I guess…

Pecos BankerJune 25th, 2009 at 6:47 am

Thanks A. I posted this not so much for advice as to try to get a picture of whether this is a nationwide scam and to hear from those with accounting or payroll experience who may have participated in this or at least know about it. I’m not so interested in pursuing this with a lawyer. But if it turns out to be a widespread scam, I would love to see it go before congress–not that those bought and paid for turkeys would do anything, of course.

MichelleJune 25th, 2009 at 7:17 am

Finally! I posted a comment last week about off-shore tax havens that hedge fund investors have been using. Looks like the IRS is taking noticeFrom WSJ:Hedge-fund assets in offshore tax havens such as the Cayman Islands and Bermuda represent more than two-thirds of the roughly $1.3 trillion industry, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124588728596150643.html

GuestJune 25th, 2009 at 7:29 am

@LBPlease report to us if you are okay, surely this isn’t you, lol?Former London Banker Disappears with Guns: Policehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/31540194

GuestJune 25th, 2009 at 7:35 am

@anonymousReal wages have dropped or have been stagnant for years. In order to raise our families we have had to increase our debt load. De-regulation, low interest rates, speculation, fraud, etc… are a consequence not a cause of this economic crisis. At the core is wage destruction and price inflation.And this dope wants to lower wages even further. He must work for Government Sachs.

GuestJune 25th, 2009 at 7:44 am

“Be afraid, be very afraid.” Go to your local police department for instructions on what labor camp to report to.

MichelleJune 25th, 2009 at 8:09 am

If your employer is cheating you out of wages, file a complaint with your local Dept. of Labor, it’s free and they will investigate it for you. Congress has already addressed these issued years ago and these agencies were created for these very reasons.In most states, if your employer is found guilty, they will owe you treble damages, so it certainly is worth your time and effort to follow through with filing.

thimmaJune 25th, 2009 at 8:44 am

In capitalism (more like westernism) it is winner takes it all and the devil takes the hindmost. I foresee US elite owning capital and controlling what, where, when, how much and why products are produced and how they are redistributed among the producers after a 50% tithe is taken by the owners of capital. Will the 50% tithe be enough to support 300 million? Maybe, maybe not. I might be sufficient for 10 million elite and a 90 million underclass that services the elite. It is gloomy for the remaining 200 million.

FEDupJune 25th, 2009 at 10:41 am

Another market rally as initial jobless claims rose by 15k to 627k in the week ended June 20. While 99% of Americans would be happy with a decent paying job, the entire world economy is under siege due to the 1% who want the US to remain #1 in income inequality: yes, a few bad apples spoils the entire barrel!

AnonymousJune 25th, 2009 at 9:26 pm

There’s no need for it to “go before congress”. There are already laws against theft, fraud, racketeering, etc. Congress has done its job, now if you want help, you have to do your part!I’m the guy who suggested a class action.

MichelleJune 26th, 2009 at 7:19 am

I just wanted to mention also that my new son-in-law was not paid for two weeks’ work last summer when the independent contractor he was working for went bankrupt. He filed a complaint with our local agency and he received a settlement within just a couple months, treble damages.

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