#2

ACTUALLY THE 30% REBOUND IN THE STOCK MARKET IS SHORT-TERM THINKINGUsing its high last summer [DOW 14,000], its not only plummetted about 40%, since May 2009, the short term stock profits are about 0%.The saving grace, since the COLA on fed retirees’ is currently deflationary at -3.2%….the 0% short term stock market, since May 2009, made you some money…LOL

I posted this at the end of the last thread.Green shoots If you fertilize and water a fallow field you will get a huge crop of green weeds. If you don’t kill the weeds, they go to seed, affecting the surrounding land. If you continue this process, even the productive lands spend so much controlling weeds that their profitability declines and their productivity declines. When the productive lands is encumbered with debt there is a point in this process where that land is defaulted on and allowed to go fallow.. If the government continues its process of fertilizing and watering the fallow fields, we will continue to have less. The more the government does, the less the people have. It is just the way the world works.  So don’t get to excited about green shoots unless you know they are not government funded weeds.From reading NR’s latest, I have to say he is getting it. Deficits used to prop up failing institutions is the same as fertilizing and watering weeds. They will not produce food or usable fiber or anything useful. All they do is waste away our resources and make us all poorer.When the Marie Antoinettes living in castles in the clouds make the rules, we all lose. We need a government of the people, by the people and for the people put back in place. Corporate rule just doesn’t work!

Lobby, lobby, lobby, the all American way.The Fed, a privately owned banking cartel, controls the money that pays all our politicians. Dem & Rep Inc are both bought and paid for, which is exactly how we got into this mess. Big finance making big donations to get the rules and restrictions put in place after previous disasters repealed so they could run hog wild again, oh, yes, and in the process give loads of their newly multiplied proceeds back to the politicians.Oh, what a wonderful system! So simple to understand, so difficult to hold to task, and so indignantly drunk on its own righteousness. Reading the fall of Rome, the parallels are startling, and startling obvious!Regardless of party in power no one is putting Humpty back together again any time soon. Even if we sail out of this storm intact, which I think we will, we’ll witness a rapid change in the way the world regards us, resulting in a possible collapse of the Anglo-Saxon models. There is no way Geitner gets laughed at in China without that representing a very, very serious sea change in opinion which will translate to an irreversible shift in world power. The USA used the debt of the lease/lend program to destroy the British Empire, yet now the situation is reversed and no one seems to see it, or if they do they aren’t saying anything about it.Thank you Mr Wilson, you sold your country to the money changers, first allowing us all to be the victims of their usury and fraud, and now as a result of their unbridled irresponsibility and absolute greed our country has been sold down the river of debt.What next?

PeteCA,I did not see that paper, but it seems like it would be an interesting read for me.I have come by my estimate from a very interesting route. I’ll share the story with you and everyone. It’s amusing and insightful (imho).About 7 years ago, I started playing a massively multiuser online game called Asheron’s Call. This game had 20,000+ players spread across several game servers (Worlds). Each world was entirely self-contained, meaning that once a player chose a World, they could not transfer any assets to a different world, nor could they move themselves to a different world.The game had an amazingly vibrant economy. There were many items which users could earn, collect and possess. When I began playing, the game was already mature, and there were several classes of items that were used as in-game currencies. Two items in particular, were traded by players as a proxy for cash. Those were “Shards” and “Sing keys.” Each of those items had a use in world which imparted them a value. (More on this in a bit).After playing the game for a few months, I did what I always do, which was find a way to beat it. I found that players would often spend hours trying to “buy” some suit of armor or sword or something, or trying to sell some possession to raise cash… I developed a software system that turned my character into a Robotic Trading System (a trade-bot) that stood in the same place 24/7, and bought and sold items with a profit margin for me on both sides of the trade.At first, I spent a great deal of time determining the values of each item in the game, and the prices shifted often, but soon, my trade bot became known worldwide, and with volume came price stability.I opened two trade bots, one on each of two of these Worlds. Interestingly, in one of the worlds, Shards were the “reserve currency.” In the other, Sing Keys were the standard. Since both copies of the game ran identically, I found it a fascinating study to observe the economies from the standpoint of what was effectively a currency exchange service. Noting the difference in value on each server between the items.As it turns out, all the items on both servers had approximately the same value relative to each other – except for Shards and Sings – the two items that had the status of reserve currency.Now, without getting into too much detail (I can’t tell if this story is interesting to anyone but me lol), I will say that each month, the maker of the game put out a software update. The update would change some of the activities that users could do, and thus would change the abundance of some items. In one such update, the software maker altered the availability of Shards – making them easier to find. They subsequently corrected this change, but by essentially “printing money” they inadvertently caused a massive shift in the economy of the World in which Shards were the primary reserve currency.That world never recovered. Within a week, Sing keys had replaced shards as the reserve. The value of Sing keys more than doubled. Interestingly, the value on the other world was unchanged. Shards dropped in value to almost exactly what they would be worth if they were used for their intended purpose (they could be converted into a special armor, which had a set value), and thus, by losing their status as the main currency, they dropped in value, and that value loss remained, even when the supply returned to normal.Lest you think the economy here was small, I will tell you that although this was just a small hobby for me (I am the CEO of a substantial company), the value of my profit from the currency exchange amounted to many thousands of dollars each month…From this test case within a unique parallel virtual world economy microcosm, I was able to see the kind of added value a currency gets from having “Reserve Currency” status. It may be a stretch to say that the US dollar would react in the same way as Shards and Sings, but based on two data points – one where the Worlds were identical, but simply evolved economies based on different reserves, and seeing the price differential between those two currencies; and the second, where the “Government” printed some money in one of the Worlds, and the resultant value change that was rapid and permanent, I feel quite confident that in the real world, a similar value must be imparted to the US Dollar from it’s status.I can’t see why a rapid change in the supply of dollars, or a weakening of status of the dollar would have a different result from the test cases that I observed back in my carefree days, when my worst fear of an economic collapse was when a competitor developed their own tradebot and competition started in earnest –Brian

There is no way Geitner gets laughed at in China without that representing a very, very serious sea change in opinion…

You betcha… and without a strong dollar all of our business models are broken. All of them. The study of the fall of Rome and the early middle ages is something I’m still working on. Clearly, the enthusiasm with which western Europe embraced feudalism after the fall is significant.

Russia ready for deep nuclear arms cutsMedvedev says deal possible if US meets missile concerns

Are you John Ryskamp? Your comments are cruel and downright mean. Do something more constructive and positive with your time.

“Underlying these challenges is our broken political system. Our representatives, unlike our Founding Fathers, see politics as a career. As a result, they are focused not on the next generation, but on the next election. When the long-term problems are large and real, they anesthetize us, mislead us, divert us—anything to keep us from giving up something or having to pay for it. Too often, our political leaders are just enablers, co-conspirators in a disingenuous and greedy silence. Our children are unrepresented. The future is unrepresented.”http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/06/guest-post-meaning-of-enough.html#links

Charlie Gasparino is more your type no doubt.

Wow. How patently true and insightful that bit of commentary is. Thanks for posting it.SWK

These parasites just might finish what they started”The investment banks more than any other institutions created the culture of excessive leverage, excessive risk and excessive bonuses that led to the downfall of the financial system. Now they are cashing in and the same bonus culture has returned. The result must be that we are being pushed to the edge of another crash.”

I spent an extra few minutes in bed this morning just so I could dream about Roubini! Sigh . . .

Are TPTB putting something in the water? I’ve been dragging around for the past week exhausted. My kids are complaining of being tired too. Maybe TPTB see what is happening in Tehran and are fearful of retribution against their own abuses so are taking preventative action to sedate us.It’s a new conspiracy theory, but not so outlandish given the reality of what Bush proved the government capable of doing and how much is still hidden from view.

Very well put. This could apply to almost all democracies today.The ‘spirit’ of democracy has been lost and strange ideologies are prowling the landscape with confidence.

The somewhat knee-jerk rebound since March has been driven by short covering, “green shoots” optimism, and a misplaced belief that stocks are cheap just because they’ve declined from untenable overvaluations. That dynamic has largely played out, and now requires real, tangible economic improvements to justify further strength.http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090622.htm

This website has changed extensively. Used to be insights and good analysis and it is now about Roubini self praise and videos on how accurate he is. In the meantime, other great websites are popping, that match what rgemonitor used to be.

g what is there to comments anymore???talk, comments lead to nothin.. the bloggers over here (i think) have realized about itwhile we talk / comments… the Perpetrator keep scheming the peopleall that needs to be said have been saidits time to react..

p.s. Cheaters rule.

Wh would you worry about Goldman? They made money in this market shile te good professor kept you out of the market. If you had made money in the market would you wan to share it with someone who didn’t take the risk with you? Grow up

no, $usd and $usb not safehaven.looking at $usd and $usb chart, it is weak and in downtrened -> short it until is not

I get Geithner is in bed in this scheme taxpayer too. Geithner is the one insist that taxpayer must honor Las Vegas style bet among financial institution. Politician and government officials are corrupt, what can you do?

Is the market moving on fundamentals? Everyone here seems to think so, NR suggests perhaps not. This morning the futures are down sharply, but why, you may ask. Is it because of Iran, North Korea, economic news, or something else? I believe it is a function of liquidity, or a lack thereof. Anyone that has followed my past posts knows where to find the answer.

http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-06-19/110186641.htmlRead Andy Xie by way of Naked Capitalism. The Chinesehave turned on the Credit Pumps, but the consequencesare speculation in commodities by chinese businessmen. Who wants to take a risk on production, when they can follow Goldman Sachs in the Casino and get in and out. The real problem is that Global Aggregate Demand cannot handle EXISTING Global Aggregate Supply of Goods. Why? The globalization of labor markets creates a labor pool that can’t affordto consume. Try selling Gucci to near slaves! It is so simple, yet so taboo to speak about! One billion people are going to bed hungry according to the United Nations. Has somebody done the math? There areno consumers for the PRODUCTION BUBBLE! There is too much near-slave labor to create any consumption!!!What have the powers that be done in the past? Blow up the inventory with some senseless war.SUPPLY-BLOWN UP INVENTORY=DEMAND+DEBTHey! Now the equation balances!!You cannot run a nuclear world like this!!!!

Link to articlehttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/21/AR2009062101859.html?hpid=topnews

the Real Keynes would have screamed “First!”

Just went through annual enrollment for wife and I. our contributuons to our employer based health care coverage is now:Medical $330.00 26 $8,580.00Medical $399.00 26 $10,374.00Medical $729.00 $18,954.00Dental $36.00 26 $936.00Dental $32.00 26 $832.00Dental $68.00 $1,768.00Total $20,722.00She works for a top NorCal hospital as an RN 9over 10 years). I work for a fortune 60 company (over 20 years). it has dawned on me we should cancel all this and go get one private policy for less than what these employer sponsered insurance costs are.this is utterly ridicoulus when one considers our total contributions were around 1000.00 only 7 short years ago. now we pay almsot 20k for worse coverage, higher deductibles, dental plan that covers each for only 1500 per year.this is total Wage destruction and only reinforces what corprate America is doing to thier workers. Obama’s health plan is a joke. The insurance compnaies and health care providors are out of control with thier charges and costs. No wonder no one wants to creat jobs, and isntead jsut kill off what jobs thier are, esepcially manufactuing and send whatever is needed overseas where it is cheaper to do business and manufacture/produce goods.Report: Health care costs to rise 9% in 2010http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/health/2009-06-18-health-care-costs_N.htm?loc=interstitialskipINDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Employers who offer health insurance coverage could see a 9% cost increase next year, and their workers may face an even bigger hit, according to a report Thursday from consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers.Costs will rise in part because workers worried about losing their jobs are using their health care more while they still have it, the firm said in the report released to the Associated Press. The report also said rising unemployment is driving up medical costs.Health care reform legislation currently being hashed out in Congress likely will have little impact on next year’s costs, said PWC Principal Michael Thompson. But he noted that the intense focus on health care may slow price increases.”Nobody wants to be front page news when all the lights are shinning on your industry,” he said.The report projects the expected cost increase per person for employee benefits plans, and it factors in things such as price increases, as well as utilization changes.Businesses confronted with increases will likely pass some of the burden to employees via higher premiums, deductibles or copays, Thompson said.”If the underlying costs go up by 9%, employees’ costs actually go up by double digits,” he said, noting that will have a “major, major impact” when many employers also are freezing or cutting pay.A total of 42% of employers surveyed said they would increase employees’ share of costs.The 9% increase predicted for 2010, however, represents a slight decrease from the 9.2% PWC projected for this year, and 9.9% predicted for 2008. A growing use of generic drugs has helped tame spending, according to the most recent survey.Actual cost increases for this year and last were not available.PWC surveyed more than 500 employers and health insurers. One of the factors it found that may increase medical costs next year is the lingering threat of unemployment. Workers worried about losing their health coverage along with their jobs tend to seek medical care they might otherwise put off.PWC also said health care providers tend to shift costs to private insurance plans to make up for the revenue drop they see from a rise in the uninsured population or from an increase in the percentage of people covered by Medicaid, the state-federal insurance program for the poor.Georgetown University health economist Jean Mitchell said she sees one main reason behind any health care cost increase: overutilization. Mitchell, who was not involved with the survey, said health care costs have been rising faster than inflation because the payment system rewards care providers for doing more.”Until we fix that, we’re never going to be able to rein in health care costs,” she said.

Record profits? anyone care to venture at who’s expense? this company is crimminal and should be eliminated…Goldman Prepares To Pay Biggest Bonuses Ever (GS)http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-prepares-to-pay-biggest-bonsues-ever-2009-6Remember the days when the age of excess on Wall Street were over? We were told the new normal would mean smaller bonsues, reduced egos, no more bottle service and a New York City devastated by the loss of income trickling down from investment bankers to the rest of us.Well, Goldman may have received that memo but it didn’t care much for it. Because the big bonus is back at 85 Broad, baby.From The Guardian:Staff at Goldman Sachs staff can look forward to the biggest bonus payouts in the firm’s 140-year history after a spectacular first half of the year, sparking concern that the big investment banks which survived the credit crunch will derail financial regulation reforms.A lack of competition and a surge in revenues from trading foreign currency, bonds and fixed-income products has sent profits at Goldman Sachs soaring, according to insiders at the firm.Staff in London were briefed last week on the banking and securities company’s prospects and told they could look forward to bumper bonuses if, as predicted, it completed its most profitable year ever. Figures next month detailing the firm’s second-quarter earnings are expected to show a further jump in profits. Warren Buffett, who bought $5bn of the company’s shares in January, has already made a $1bn gain on his investment.

Utterly fascinating. Thanks for sharing.

I have a problem.The problem is, I have not had TV for the last 5 years but yet I must determine who are more evil of the following:A. SwedishB. IraniansC. PomeraniansD. North KoreansI was going to go with North Koreans because they seem to be into the Koran (I think its the Northern version of the Koran). Or should I go with the Swedish? I think I heard something about them going on some boats to kill people in Scotland and Ireland some years back. Alternatively maybe I should choose between Iranians and Pomeranians. I always get those two mixed up so I thought I include both of them.

More power to the Federal Reserve?????I grow numb in disbelief at the prospect of The American People, (TAP), being so ignorant or programmed as to not have the intellectual capacity to understand the grand theft being perpetrated on them. How can any proponent of consumer safety or consumer rights (our own leader)profess to give more (extra-contstitutional) regulatory authority to a private cartel, who remains cloaked in secrecy, non-transparent, un-audited, and responsible for this mess? TAP are being corralled like sheep for slaughter by those we elect and entrust to ensure our safety and freedom, the U.S. Congress and U.S. Senate. These bodies of elected officials need to be voted out of office at the earliest election. This country has been hijacked by the money lenders who own the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve should be brought to account for false, deceptive and misleading advertising itself by being allowed to claim affliation with our government by misusing the name “Federal” and alluding to “safety” by using the name “Reserve”. They reserve nothing except illegal profits from taxpayer bailouts, Goldman Sachs anyone? I agree with others today regarding this site, it has lost its vinegar. Ah, the sweet scent of compliance, we must all lay down and rest a while, in these beautiful poppies. Look not behind the curtain.

Our Politicians have them all beat!

These are the people that Obama wants to both regulate and run our entire financial system?

As long as there’s greed and obfuscation at the top levels, and as long as the people are referred to as “consumers” and encouraged to act as such in order to keep the economy going on massive amounts of debt, and as long as the government insists on propping up spending during the times when the consumer is spent (I won’t even touch on the employment issue), there can and will be no significant recovery.Removing only part of the cancer will not help much if the rest is left to grow and spread.

lets violate taxpayer again, eminent systemic collapse needs TARP fund pass thru congress prompto. everyone wait in line, here is money to Goldman again, Wells Fargo, blabla…sweet

tomorrow, FOMC moment will seal fate for $usd, $usb, and equity market. i bet helicopter Ben will sacrifice dollar and treasury. that is what he does all the time.

@ morbid, last thread “naive, savior” etc..”The Imitatio Christi will forever have this disadvantage: we worship a man as a divine model, embodying the deepest meaning of life, and then out of sheer imitation we forget to make real the profound meaning present in ourselves.”If I accept the fact that a god is absolute and beyond all human experience, he leaves me cold. I do not affect him, nor does he affect me. But if I know, on the other hand, that God is a mighty activity within my own soul, at once I must concern myself with him.”Carl G. Jungfurther along this line is the realization thatevery external perception or manifestation hasan internal corollary and the field is rich withpossibilities and potential. and we are free todirect our energies where we see they are bestapplied!.http://meuser.awardspace.com/gmass/easter_Birthday_of_the_Gods.shtml…“The author of the Book of Ecclesiastes in the Old Testament is in the book’s very title called “The Preacher.” In ancient Egyptian religious books which dramatized the forms and stages of the divinization of man, there was a character always called “The Speaker.” He it was who played the part of the Christ-soul in the representations and in this exalted capacity uttered or pronounced the divine “sermon” preached on the “mount of earth,” meaning here in our world. He spoke the words of the Christos in his sermon to the men of earth. The “Sermon on the Mount” is just the preach-23ment of the heavenly soul in our nature to the human counterpart.”……..p.s.some people say ‘if christ were alive today hewould puke and never stop.’ i could see that. but,i think he is alive today and laughing his ass off,granted, intermittently. or..” you know there ain’t no devil, there’s just god when he’s drunk.” t.w..vivre libre ou mourir,la convention national..http://homepage.mac.com/j.norstad/paris2006/pantheon.html.Bill Morrissey wrote a song titled “Live Free or Die” about the irony of a prisoner serving time in the State of New Hampshire’s jails and hand-stamping license plates with the motto Live Free or Die. The song appeared on his first album..http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Live_Free_or_Die.it seems, from the above, many know the words buthave, as has been said, “lost the sheet music”.have not actualized or appreciated the meaning.to live, as opposed to being dead-but not yet in theground. to live free. the feeling of it?.and here a funny thing…”I read Voltaire in English translation when I was young, and I was captivated by his wit. There’s a story that on his death bed, a priest tried to get him to renounce Satan. He is reported to have said “now, now, my dear man – this is not the time to be making enemies.” How funny, and how French, is that?”sweet ( -) =X=

http://www.identitytheory.com/visual/middlebrook_index.php….“I have a four-year-old, and I wanted her to experience nature in the same way that I did. There is nothing more important for a child than to be able to play in dirt. “.”How is the relationship between humans and the environment examined in your work?”"The point in which nature and humans collide is where I find inspiration. Natural disasters, weeds taken over a parking lot of a closed store, these are both reminders of the power of nature and man is always trying to established space within nature. People continue to build on the coast lines and then cry to the insurance companies when their houses fall in the ocean. When that house falls I see many ideas for my art.”.?

Michelle, how much of this move is due to the realization of deflation vs. Inflation moves the commodity market?LB, you have called for the dollar to tank, what’s up?hlowe

so,this may be a stretch but it seems by analogyas per below statement that financial marketsare where real economies go to die.or is it just me? and the country?.http://www.identitytheory.com/visual/middlebrook_index.php.“I read in an old issue of Artforum that your favorite quotation is “Museums are places where art goes to die,” said by Alan Watts. What about that quotation resonates with you? How have you explored it in your work?”"A few years back I was very interested in institutional critiques and discussions revolving around the death of art in museums. I did a few projects in museums that treated the space as a graveyard for art, a final resting place. Museums follow models that force them to protect and archive the work. I understand that this is important so future generations can view the work and appreciate it. I’m much more interested in a combination between showing current work and ideas and educating the public. I don’t think museums do enough to challenge the paradigm. Museums have pressure on them to make their board members happy like a corporation. How many times do we have to see a dead artist retrospective just so the market value of the work can remain healthy?”..i would have put that “healthy” in quotes. like that. also, this just inspired me with an idea for anart installation worthy of any fine museum. it would consist of credit cards, cash, bonds, certificates,news clippings etc. deeds, pasted on the walls anda big black and white smoke bomb that fills the roomwith a fog that nearly darkens the entire space.for safety reasons a mirror ball would hang from theceiling and emergency lighting would be required.i would want wine to be served at the entrance and exit.anyone interested in commissioning this projectcan just contact me here. or do your own installation at a museum near you.( joke of sort, i’m sure this would constitute anabuse of privilege. )sweet ( -)=X

I’ve learned by watching objective results. I see that the Fed is rigging the game – with the help of the primary dealers who also happen to be the major prime brokers – so that the dollar holds enough value and foreign markets are scary enough to herd the punters into Treasuries. Some coordinated selling, a few margin calls, and hey presto! another market collapses while the US outperforms.If the primary dealers/prime brokers fail, then they lose the “protection” afforded by the Fed’s secret and limitless balance sheet. If they succeed, then they all get to pay themselves huge bonuses and participate in ill-transparent funds that leverage the advance information.I’m also factoring in that the best way for the Chinese to escape from the dollar trap they are in is to support deflation in the US, which paradoxically strengthens the US dollar and US Treasuries for a time. Those Treasuries must be bought by the primary dealers regardless of whether China is buying, so the dollars must be raised from liquidations and repatriated. The process is much harsher if the Chinese aren’t buying Treasuries, but that actually contributes to the value of their existing portfolio as the flight to quality and dollar flows enhance that value.At least that’s what I see happening, although I’m not paying as close attention as I should because the day job gets in the way.

What SHOULD be next is action. Action from an aroused populace – before it is too late and our financial Ayatollahs seize the free swinging pendulum that has always protected America. When we have the foxes writing the new regulations for the hen house, our time is almost done. It is still not too late if enough of us get active.Call and write your Representatives. Tell them you are beyond FedUp! Ask them to explain to you why it is that Corporations, Unions, and PACs can make financial contributions to politicians. Tell them you thought they were supposed to be working for the citizens, not the pharmaceutical industry, or big tobacco, etc., etc. Let them know that you have come to realize that ‘Special Interests’ by definition work against the common interests, and you are tired of it.Tell them you want new campaign finance laws with teeth that will only allow registered voters to make political contributions of any kind..no Corporate money, no Union money, no PAC money – NONE.It is ridiculous that a Presidential campaign costs $1,000,000,000 and a Senate seat goes for $14,000,000. Take all these special interest, non-citizen funds out of the equation and we would get a whole new set of candidates. People who could afford to run without selling out in advance just to come up with the money. The system has morphed into something that virtually guarantees we get the worst kind of self-centered, egotistical, pandering loudmouth losers as candidates.Tell your representative that you are just about ready to vote against each and EVERY incumbent. Starting over with a clean slate of College Freshmen would probably give us better results than we are getting now.The first rallying cry should be “If you can’t vote, you can’t contribute”. If that one is not acted on, the second one should be “Throw the bums out!”This is still our country. We have loaned it to shysters. They will steal it if we don’t claim it back….and soon.Independent Contractor