EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

Latvia’s currency crisis is a rerun of Argentina’s

After a recent failed public debt auction, the authorities in Latvia are desperately trying to prevent a depreciation of the currency, the lat. The country’s predicament is similar to the one that faced Argentina in 2000-01: a severe recession driven by global financial shocks, a sudden drying up of capital inflows and the need to reduce a large external deficit worsened by an unsustainable currency peg. 

As in Argentina, the International Monetary Fund initially went along – somewhat uncomfortably – with the authorities’ strong preference for not letting the currency depreciate, in spite of its significant overvaluation. But a real exchange rate depreciation is necessary to restore the country’s competitiveness; in its absence, a painful adjustment of relative prices can occur only via deflation and a fall in nominal wages that will take too long and exacerbate the recession.

Draconian cuts in public spending will be required if Latvia is to improve the current account. But this is becoming politically unsustainable. And while fiscal consolidation is needed – as Argentina found in 2000-01 – it will make the recession more severe in the short run. So it is a self-defeating strategy as long as the currency remains overvalued.

Of course, as in Argentina, letting the currency depreciate would lead to massive negative balance-sheet effects. The large foreign liabilities of households, companies and banks are in foreign currency; the real value in local currency of such debts would increase sharply after a devaluation. Devaluation may therefore lead to default by many private sector agents – and as the country’s banks are local subsidiaries of Swedish banks, a financial meltdown in Latvia could prove damaging for its neighbours.

Nonetheless, devaluation seems un­avoidable and the IMF programme – which ruled it out – is thus inherently flawed. The IMF or the European Union could increase financial support for Latvia but, as in Argentina, this would be throwing good money after bad. International resources are better used to mitigate the collateral damage of depreciation.

An introduction of the euro immediately after devaluation could help prevent the exchange rate from overshooting, although it would require the eurozone to admit a country that does not yet satisfy the formal criteria for membership. Euroisation after depreciation is a more credible strategy for Latvia than dollarisation would have been for Argentina, as Latvia was on its way to membership and its business cycle is highly correlated with that of the EU. Euroisation without depreciation will not work, as a real depreciation is necessary to restore competitiveness. Of course, any depreciation – with or without euroisation – will make many foreign currency debts unsustainable and will require a forced debt restructuring, as in the case of Argentina.

To minimise the risk of contagion, the best strategy may be: depreciate the currency, euroise after depreciation, restructure private foreign currency liabilities without a formal “default”, and augment the IMF plan to limit the financial fallout. It is a risky strategy but – as in Buenos Aires nine years ago – when plan A does not work it is time to move to plan B sooner rather than later. Delaying plan B would only cause a bigger blowout when the unavoidable currency crisis eventually occurs. It is to be hoped the lessons of Argentina in 2001 have been learnt.

Latvia’s authorities are trying desperately to prevent depreciation by intervening in the foreign exchange market. While the very thin interbank market slows down the rate at which domestic and foreign financial institutions can short the Latvian currency and put pressure on the central bank reserves, the country is bleeding forex reserves at an alarming rate. Only a miracle or some draconian and credible fiscal adjustment (that does not exacerbate the recession) could restore the peg’s credibility and lead to a growth recovery.

At this point, a currency and financial crisis is pretty much unavoidable; the issue is how to minimise the domestic and international costs of the needed change in the policy regime. As the experience with Argentina suggests, procrastinating will make the unavoidable crash – and the regional contagion – even more ­dramatic and costly.

The writer is a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Monitor

579 Responses to “Latvia’s currency crisis is a rerun of Argentina’s”

GuestJune 10th, 2009 at 5:48 pm

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION?????????????????(from Previous)We all know this is going to end in hyper-inflation and the collapse of the dollar.PeteCA, PeterJB, London Banker, MM CA, when in your opinions does this occur?Hide replies Reply to this comment By Guest on 2009-06-10 15:48:22You didn’t ask me but if you read about hypercanes you will get a good idea of the hyperinflation that is bound to follow the failed policies of the ObamaNation of Desolation (Dan. 9:27). I don’t know when this will occur but in any event we are all screwed.My suggestion is to buy a teepee and settle in the Great Plains. Buy a Honeywell wind turbine to generate your electricity and hunker down.Reply to this comment By Morbid on 2009-06-10 16:19:10The first signs were obvious in 2006 but the beginning came much earlier but during the periods leading up to 2006, the policies could have been introduced to correct the road that we are on, but those policies introduced by all of leadership in main, just exacerbated and thusly accelerated what is coming, so the long answer is, it is here and there is nothing to be done but endure and forgive where both such actions will be most difficult. Mileage will vary.Short answer: Any time time now where I believe the shock will come prior to July 2009 end but a rough guess will be prior to 2010 start. It will be heralded by the general public realization of the socio-economic collapse of the USA (a former Constitutional Republic) marked by the total collapse of the US Dollar or the inability for the USA to meet is debt (any of the US$ 157 Trillion). Obviously, this is already here, but the keyword”s are ” public realization”.There are no, and can be no definitive instances in time!Hide reply Reply to this comment By PeterJB on 2009-06-10 16:39:01if that is true then why would not roubini say so ?Reply to this comment By Guest on 2009-06-10 17:01:02I wrote last december I believed Hyper-inflation and dollar collapse would happen in the nov-Dec 09 time period. I think now we will see the hyper, but Dollar could hang on a little longer or at least not be a total collapse.actual post was “Deflation takes strong hold until sept 2009, at which point hyperinflation is roaring by dec 2009″ and “US Dollar continues slow decline against Yen, Euro, Pound and Yuan – losses 50% by Dec 2009″Reply to this comment By MM CA on 2009-06-10 17:42:00

PeterJBJune 10th, 2009 at 5:55 pm

An interesting article from a more interesting person who I respect:http://informationclearinghouse.info/article22808.htmComment: You can’t build a Nation on Larry Summers or Geithner’s bullsh*t, or any’body else’s variety of fertilizer so the inevitable conclusion is that as the USA predominate and preferred tool for combating its er, instabilities, is bullsh*t and theft, then expect the worst.You may find this rather earthy as well:http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/Financial_Bailout_Plan_Keeps_Zombie_Banks_AliveOh, almost forgot: Latvia – comment: goneHo humHo hum

GuestJune 10th, 2009 at 6:22 pm

How quickly do you think the dollar as global reserve will unwind?Bloomberg today:Russia’s central bank said it may cut investments in U.S. Treasuries, currently valued at as much as $140 billion, a week after China said it may reduce reliance on the dollar and American bonds. Brazil’s Finance Minister Guido Mantega said his country will purchase $10 billion of debt sold by the IMF, China will buy $50 billion and India may announce similar funding. Treasury yields climbed this year and the dollar fell in part on concern that foreign central banks would reduce holdings of U.S. financial assets just as America sells a record amount of debt to finance a growing budget deficit and pull the economy from the deepest recession since the 1930s. Treasuries fell today, six days before officials from the so-called BRIC nations meet in Yekaterinburg, Russia, where they plan to discuss the status of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The rate is still below the average of 6.49 percent over the past 25 years, and may stay below 4 percent through at least the first quarter of 2010, the median estimate of 57 economists surveyed by Bloomberg shows.Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in Beijing on June 2 there will be enough demand for record sales of U.S. debt. He met with Chinese officials after Premier Wen Jiabao called in March for the U.S. “to guarantee the safety of China’s assets” and central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan proposed a new global currency to reduce reliance on the dollar. Plans by Brazil, Russia, India and China, the world’s biggest emerging economies, to buy IMF debt isn’t “a dramatic reallocation of resources,” said Joydeep Mukherji, a sovereign risk analyst at Standard & Poor’s in New York. “‘It’s a signal that instead of needing help it’s providing funding. It’s a sign of political support for the IMF. It’s a statement to the world and their own people, a signal that the world has changed.” President Dmitry Medvedev questioned the U.S. dollar’s future as a global reserve currency last week and said that using a mix of regional currencies would make the world economy more stable. He renewed his call for consideration of a supranational currency to challenge the dollar.

GuestJune 10th, 2009 at 6:38 pm

From Yuri Zarakhovich at Asia Times:All over Russia, people are staging strikes or protesting through hunger strikes against unpaid wages and rising unemployment. In desperation, construction workers in the Kurgan region in Siberia made an ironic appeal to US President Barack Obama. They said that their overdue back pay was explained by their bosses in terms of the collapse of US mortgages. Hence, Obama ought either to admit that the US is at fault and pay them, or, alternatively proclaim the Kurgan workers’ bosses as “slanderers and America-haters”.

David LevnerJune 10th, 2009 at 6:52 pm

What are the ramifications of a Latvian debt crisis? We know that Swedish banks are exposed. What about Western European and Russian banks? And could the debt crisis spread to other Eastern European countries?

blind barnacleJune 10th, 2009 at 7:05 pm

http://verbewarp.blogspot.com/2005/02/it-is-now-year-2015.html.comment: excuse the warp. it is somehow contagiouslike silence and certain dissonance that is sweeterthan harmony and conformity, like distortion, artistically embracedand presented to reflect the, closer to, truth. very non linear.get used to it!.”It is a time to reconsider; a time for reflection; a time to revalue ones past; ones past beliefs; ones past actions, within a framework of self-forgiveness of oneself; it is time to move on in a framework of energy, vitality, compassion, intuition and intellect. It is time to smell the roses.” pjb..”That Feel”(Keith Richards/Tom Waits).Well there’s one thing you can’t loseIt’s that feelYour pants, your shirt, your shoesBut not that feelYou can throw it out in the rainYou can whip it like a dogYou can chop it down like an old dead treeit always sees youWhen you’re coming into townOnce you hang it on the wallYou can never take it down.But there’s one thing you can’t loseAnd it’s that feelYou can pawn your watch and chainBut not that feelIt always comes and finds youIt will always hear you cryI cross my wooden legAnd I swear on my glass eyeIt will never leave you high and dryNever leave you looseIt’s harder to get rid of than tattoos.But there’s one thing you can’t loseIt’s that fee ee e eelBut there’s one thing you can’t loseIt’s that feel…..You can throw it off a bridgeYou can lose it in a fireYou can leave it at the altarIt will make you out a liarFall down in the streetYou can leave it in the lurchWell you say that it’s gospelBut I know that it’s only church.But there’s one thing you can’t loseAnd it’s that feelIt’s that feel.There’s one thing you can’t loseand it’s that feel .There’s one thing you can’t loseand it’s that feel …………………………………………………but the question we ask..”what does that have to do with the price of tea in china?”.strange response….Last show and deathAt the start of the play Genesius lay down on the stage as if sick. Two other actors asked what ailed him. Genesius said he felt a great weight that he wanted removed. Hence, two other actors, dressed as a priest and exorcist, were called in. They asked what the protagonist wanted. He replied, “A baptism.” Thereupon, he said, he saw a vision of angels bearing a book with all his sins inscribed. The actor portraying the priest asked him: “My child, why did you send for me?”At this point, Genesius claimed to actually see angels and asked to be baptized himself onstage. Enraged, Diocletian had him turned over to Plautia, prefect of the praetorium, who tortured him in an effort to force him to sacrifice to the pagan gods. When Genesius persisted in his faith, he was beheaded.He is known as the patron saint of actors, comedians, clowns, dancers, theatrical performers, musicians, attorneys, barristers, lawyers, printers and stenographers, and is invoked against epilepsy..http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genesius_of_Rome.more useless history, per se. fitfully.barnacle briny ……

blind barnacleJune 10th, 2009 at 7:52 pm

g,…buried in the depths of your mind and what youare, or are not, willing to do to capture your veryown fate from the demands of the authoritiesdictating your past, present and future.so much thought. how do you feel? can you losethat feel? if you can, what remains? somethingworth living or dying for? tell me..that is one take on it. obviously, you are freeto take any angle (take) on it you choose.peas.ps. or bury it in the cold ground.pss. it will come down to people talking to people.people comprehending their own feeling and thoughtprocesses as the basis for civilization, something thatis at the root and cannot be lost by any transactionor tragedy.not digital transfers. feeling and comprehension.psssss. granted, it is a mystery for the most part.

blind barnacleJune 10th, 2009 at 8:01 pm

ps,”you can cut all the flowers, but you can’t stopspring.”somebody said it.and..”winter always dreams of the same thing” ..

MandarinJune 10th, 2009 at 9:42 pm

What happens to Latvia can have pretty wide repercussions and I’m glad Dr. Roubini is writing about it. On the question of Euroisation: it’s a theoretical possibility, perhaps even a necessity. But it would require more or less equal sacrifice of the three interested parties: West European banks, the Latvian government, and the Latvian people. And Latvia isn’t the most politically sable country at the moment. The EU was in no rush to complete the process with a relatively stable Poland even during the good times. The case of Latvia appears to be an emergency but that doesn’t guarantee that the obstacles can be overcome or, if formal agreement is reached, that it will be more than a stopgap. A difficult, difficult problem for them and also the Hungarians and Ukrainians. Let’s hope that we don’t suffer too much here from the inevitable ripple effects on the banking system. And a political breakdown in these countries could have some really disturbing effects. Is there any role for the US here?

GuestJune 10th, 2009 at 10:43 pm

The White House is set to discuss immigration reformJune 8, 2009 –Step up to the plate, the next batter is immigration reform. In what seems like another inning in the bailout, heath care, save the planet baseball game, the White House is set to discuss immigration reform this week.Billed as the Reform Immigration for America Campaign Summit, more than 700 groups will strategize how to promote immigration reform. In the midst of a massive recession, many are wondering if the time is right to give 12-20 million illegal aliens the chance to become U.S. citizens.Kicking off a new week, President Obama will host immigration reform groups into a meeting of the minds. The group-think was supposed to include lawmakers on both sides of the isle, but conflicts pushed the lawmakers’ aspect of the issue back to the 17th of June.Saddling the immigration system as an “assault on American values and ideals,” the National Council of La Raza looks forward to opening up the discussion and giving a voice to those they say are living in the shadows.“Policies that call for SWAT-like teams to pluck people out of their beds in the middle of the night, lead to racial profiling, separate families, exploit workers and ignore due process are shamefully un-American,” the NCLR claims.Opponents on the other side of the topical issue couldn’t disagree more and are also gathering to ensure their voices heard. Minutemen groups across the country have set up mass fax blasts to get the point across.“If recent history is an accurate guide, amnesty in any form would only encourage a new wave of illegal aliens. Such legislation is a bad idea not only because it creates a transparent path to amnesty, but also it would reduce work opportunities, depresses wages and lowers protection for Americans,” part of the fax reads.Indeed, states like California are strapped for cash and are reluctant to point any fingers for political reasons. Although Gov. Schwarzenegger believes illegals are not to blame for the state’s $24.3 billion deficit. The governor contends that the $5 billion spent annually on illegal aliens is only a small portion.This ‘small portion’ tallies up to roughly 20 percent of the current problem and is reoccurring on an annual basis. Thus taxpayer advocacy groups are stepping up their mantra that if these programs were curtailed, California’s financial issues would begin to dissipate in the future.http://www.examiner.com/x-10317-San-Diego-County-Political-Buzz-Examiner~y2009m6d8-The-White-House-is-set-to-discuss-immigration-reform

GuestJune 10th, 2009 at 11:11 pm

This was on previous thread for only a few minutes: I thought it clairvoyant and am reposting it without PeterJB’s permission. :) ”How can America compete in emerging world markets if she is morphing into debt and delusion under socialism while China and other sleeping giants are shaking off socialism and communism and morphing into market economies under the rule of supply and demand?”@ Guest on 2009-06-10 10:39:10Indeed, leaving one to ask, are all of this tribe of Western leadership unaware of history? But, you must respond that socialism coupled with fascism is becoming, has become, pervasive throughout the West as the applied political doctrine du jour. Why is this so? And more so, why is it, that the USA leading the rush to the socialism store?Doesn’t it ever strike anyone as strange that every time leadership get into trouble (which is most of the time) they run to money (BIG BUSINESS) for advice and screw everybody else? Leadership in the West is all drawn from the ranks of the “camp followers” or from the nature and behaviours of the criminal elements and as such, permission must always be asked – on bended knees – where this policy is NOT transmitted downwards where it is far more profitable to apologize that to ask permission!The bastion of Liberty is becoming, has become, the anti-Christ of the planet, or the planet’s magnetic field has reversed (it has done so many times).Obviously, socialism appeases the masses that allows leadership to remain as leadership, while fascism allows the supporting bastions of leadership, to harvest from the masses beyond taxation and through a pseudo-inflation er, theft, so as to drip feed leadership. Or, the answer to your question is: Leadership in the West is done but desires to preside over anything and presiding over a complete global collapse is far preferable, a priori, to not presiding!Hanlon’s Razor – but, the good news is that there are answers. Of course, the bad news is that the bad news is preferred!Ho hum

GuestJune 10th, 2009 at 11:26 pm

Travel Slump Pushes Delta, American Toward 5% Seat Capacity CutJune 10 (Bloomberg) — Delta Air Lines Inc., American Airlines and other U.S. carriers may need to trim as much as 5 percent more seating capacity after the summer travel season to increase fares.About two-thirds of any reductions probably will come on overseas routes where planes are emptier, said Kevin Crissey, an analyst at UBS Securities LLC. Carriers may announce capacity cuts as soon as tomorrow at a conference in New York hosted by Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit, analysts said.A 12-month slide in traffic among the biggest U.S. carriers means there are still too many seats to support higher prices. A new round of cuts would build on the elimination of 10 percent of U.S. airlines’ capacity since the start of 2008, including the parking of 500 jets.“Something in the 3 percent to 5 percent range is probably what we’ll see, and the more the better,” said Crissey…Global airline revenue may fall 15 percent to $448 billion this year amid the “most difficult situation that the industry has faced,” the Geneva-based International Air Transport Association said on June 8. North American carriers will probably lose about $1 billion, the trade group said.Carriers will trim at least 4 percent more capacity as ticket sales languish, estimates Helane Becker, an analyst at Jesup & Lamont Securities Corp. in New York…“I wouldn’t expect to see any bottoming or pickup until the first quarter of 2010 at the earliest,” Becker said. “Most companies have cut travel budgets and they’re not reinstating any money until they see signs of improvement.”The U.S. jobless rate is at 9.4 percent as of May, the highest since 1983…The Bloomberg U.S. Airlines Index of 13 carriers fell 41 percent this year through yesterday.For three of the past four months, traffic slid 10 percent or more as travel cutbacks deepened…http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aNK3goAjqEpQ

GuestJune 10th, 2009 at 11:34 pm

Fed Would Be Shut Down If It Were Audited, Expert SaysCNBC (June 10)–The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is so out of whack that the central bank would be shut down if subjected to a conventional audit, Jim Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, told CNBC.With $45 billion in capital and $2.1 trillion in assets, the central bank would not withstand the scrutiny normally afforded other institutions, Grant said in a live interview.”If the Fed examiners were set upon the Fed’s own documents—unlabeled documents—to pass judgment on the Fed’s capacity to survive the difficulties it faces in credit, it would shut this institution down,” he said. “The Fed is undercapitalized in a way that Citicorp is undercapitalized.”Grant said he would support legislation currently making its way through Congress calling for an audit of the Fed.Moreover, he criticized the way the Fed has managed the financial crisis, saying the central bank’s target rate should not be around zero.”I think zero is the wrong rate for almost any economy,” Grant said, adding the Fed has “embarked on a vast experiment in moral hazard. Interest rates are the traffic signals in a market economy, and everything’s green. … You have to wonder whether these interest rates are the right clearing rate or rather they are the imposition of a central bank.”Amid a disparity between analysts predicting there will be no rate hikes soon and the fed funds futures indicating tightening by the end of the year, Grant said he thinks the Fed indeed will begin raising rates as inflation creeps into the picture.Fed funds futures have fully priced in as much as a half-point rise in the target rate from its current range of zero to 0.25 percent.”If the hairs on the back of your neck stand up when there’s too much unanimity of opinion, then one begins to worry about this,” he said. “The Fed proverbially has been late.”http://www.cnbc.com/id/31204170/

GuestJune 10th, 2009 at 11:45 pm

Global Warming Petition Signed by 31,478 Scientists by Ron PaulStatement before the US House of Representatives, June 4, 2009Madam Speaker, before voting on the “cap-and-trade” legislation, my colleagues should consider the views expressed in the following petition that has been signed by 31,478 American scientists:”We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind.”There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.”Circulated through the mail by a distinguished group of American physical scientists and supported by a definitive review of the peer-reviewed scientific literature, this may be the strongest and most widely supported statement on this subject that has been made by the scientific community. A state-by-state listing of the signers, which include 9,029 men and women with PhD degrees, a listing of their academic specialties, and a peer-reviewed summary of the science on this subject are available at http://www.petitionproject.org.The peer-reviewed summary, “Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide” by A. B. Robinson, N. E. Robinson, and W. Soon includes 132 references to the scientific literature and was circulated with the petition.Signers of this petition include 3,803 with specific training in atmospheric, earth, and environmental sciences. All 31,478 of the signers have the necessary training in physics, chemistry, and mathematics to understand and evaluate the scientific data relevant to the human-caused global warming hypothesis and to the effects of human activities upon environmental quality.In a letter circulated with this petition, Frederick Seitz – past President of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, President Emeritus of Rockefeller University, and recipient of honorary doctorate degrees from 32 universities throughout the world – wrote:”The United States is very close to adopting an international agreement that would ration the use of energy and of technologies that depend upon coal, oil, and natural gas and some other organic compounds.”This treaty is, in our opinion, based upon flawed ideas. Research data on climate change do not show that human use of hydrocarbons is harmful. To the contrary, there is good evidence that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is environmentally helpful.”The proposed agreement will have very negative effects upon the technology of nations throughout the world; especially those that are currently attempting to lift from poverty and provide opportunities to the over 4 billion people in technologically underdeveloped countries…”http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul537.html

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 12:08 am

Michael Lewis: Wall Street Made This Mess And Is Making Fortune Cleaning It Up (VIDEO)June 9, 2009 — Michael Lewis, the former Salomon Brothers trader who wrote “Liar’s Poker” about the excesses of Wall Street during the 1980s, delivered a devastating critique of the financial industry and of the government bailout today on CNN”s “Fareed Zakaria GPS.”Lewis thinks that the government’s rescue efforts have only served to postpone a “day of reckoning” for Wall Street:“I think that we are in for another day of reckoning down the road. I just don’t know when it is.“I think that they haven’t even properly evaluated the institutions.“They haven’t been honest about what these institutions have on their books. They’ve had phony stress tests.“So, we’re in a kind of, I think, right now, in a period where there’s a false sense that it’s over, that the crisis is passed. I don’t think the crisis is passed.”Part of the problem, Lewis argues, is that the architects of the bailout are too cozy with the banks which created the financial crisis in the first place, even speculating that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is already looking ahead to a cushy job in the private sector.”…one of the things that’s odd about the current situation is that the people who created the problem are so powerful in deciding what the solution to the problem is going to be. There is a great tradition on Wall Street of making a fortune, creating a mess, and then making a fortune cleaning it up. But to do it on this scale is breathtaking to me.“And it is amazing to me the degree to which, say, Goldman Sachs is intertwined with the Treasury, and how they’re — there don’t seem to be any independent voices in the thick of the decision-making. The decision-making is all being done by people who one way or another might expect to make a lot of money from Goldman Sachs in the future…“So, on a grander scale, if I’m Tim Geithner and I’m the secretary of the treasury, what do you think he’s going to do when he stops being secretary of the treasury? His natural next step is go work in the financial sector. I don’t think he’s actually thinking, “I’ve got to be nice to the people on Wall Street, because they’re going to make me rich on the back end of it.”Further, he believes that regulation has been ineffective because the regulators are conflicted, expressing shock that this cozy connection is considered routine in Washington:“But the directors of the last three — let’s see, three of the last four or four of the last five directors of enforcement of the SEC work for big Wall Street banks now…”And you can just assume, I think, that if you’re a prominent person at the SEC, your exit strategy is to get a lot of money from a Wall Street firm. And nobody says anything about it. That’s the amazing thing.“It’s not even thought scandalous. It’s just thought normal. It’s like a natural career — a step in a financial career.”Lewis believes that two principal causes of the crisis were that the ratings agencies were weak and that credit-default swaps were unregulated.But even if proper regulation is brought to bear on Wall Street, Lewis remains pessimistic. As “a natural cynic,” he adds that really smart people in positions of privilege will find ways to get around the new rules.”Lewis expressed his shock at the scale of the current crisis, saying that when he wrote his book, he thought “it was the end of something,” and he was determined to capture that era in print because he assumed that people 15 years later would hardly believe what had happened during that previous crisis.”And I turned out to be completely wrong.”In fact, it was just the beginning of a long era in Wall Street, culminating in the “point of madness,” as Lewis describes it, describing his experience at Salomon Brothers where revenues were increasingly being generated by risk-taking and proprietary trading.Lewis described the internal logic at the big Wall Street firms, where top executives are pressured to make the riskiest moves because those are the ones that were generating the most money:“The logic of it, internal to the Wall Street firms, is that if I’m the CEO of Citigroup or Merrill Lynch, and the vast majority of my revenues are coming out of this subprime mortgage machine, and I just shut it down, unless I’m incredibly lucky in the timing of it, it’s going to look like I’ve just jettisoned my single most important business. My competitors are all going to be earning fantastic returns on their capital, and I’m going to be out of it. And I’ll probably be out of a job.”Meanwhile, all the guys who are going along with it are getting paid huge sums of money at the end of every year. The efficient strategy for the individual trader was to ignore his reason and participate in the madness.”http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/07/michael-lewis-wall-street_n_212340.html

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 12:22 am

06/08/2009 15:18ASIA – ITALYUS government securities seized from Japanese nationals, not clear whether real or fake”Bonds worth US$ 134.5 billion are seized”This is the largest financial smuggling case in history. But are they real? Concern over ‘funny money’ or counterfeit securities is spreading in Asia. The international press is silent.Milan (AsiaNews) – Italy’s financial police (Guardia italiana di Finanza) has seized US bonds worth US 134.5 billion from two Japanese nationals at Chiasso (40 km from Milan) on the border between Italy and Switzerland. They include 249 US Federal Reserve bonds worth US$ 500 million each, plus ten Kennedy bonds and other US government securities worth a billion dollar each.Italian authorities have not yet determined whether they are real or fake, but if they are real the attempt to take them into Switzerland would be the largest financial smuggling operation in history; if they are fake, the matter would be even more mind-boggling because the quality of the counterfeit work is such that the fake bonds are undistinguishable from the real ones.What caught the policemen’s attention were the billion dollar securities. Such a large denomination is not available in regular financial and banking markets. Only states handle such amounts of money…http://www.asianews.it/index.php?l=en&art=15456&size=A

JLCJune 11th, 2009 at 1:52 am

Chew on this one for a while folks:Subpoena seeks names — and lots more — of Web postersJun. 07, 2009Copyright © Las Vegas Review-JournalTHOMAS MITCHELL…On May 26 the Review-Journal published an article about an ongoing federal tax evasion trial. The primary defendant, Las Vegan Robert Kahre, stands accused of tax fraud for using the rather inventive argument that he could pay people in U.S. minted gold and silver coins based on their precious metal value but for tax purposes use their face value, which is many times less.The story was posted on our Web site. When last I checked nearly 100 comments were appended to it, running the gamut from the lucid to the ludicrous.This past week the newspaper was served with a grand jury subpoena from the U.S. attorney’s office demanding that we turn over all records pertaining to those postings, including “full name, date of birth, physical address, gender, ZIP code, password prompts, security questions, telephone numbers and other identifiers … the IP address,” et (kitchen sink) cetera.Tantamount to killing a gnat with an A-bomb.There was no indication what they were looking for or what crime, if any, was being investigated, just a blanket subpoena for voluminous and detailed records on every private citizen who dared to speak about a federal tax case.Sure, some of the comments were a bit rough, but criminal?One person who signed himself “Louis D. Brandeis” called federal prosecutor Greg Damm, whose name is on the subpoena, “evil incarnate and everything that is against the American justice system.”"Christian Patriot” wrote a couple days later, “I suggest we go back to a gold and silver standard, which would immediately wipe out the national debt, not charge us interest for their toilet paper, or better yet, I’ll trade you eggs for milk. Tax that if you will.”"Randall” wrote, “If it is legal tender, value of said legal tender it set by the gov and stamped on the face.”Maybe the Government should be on trial.”Read them yourself at http://www.lvrj.com/news/46074037.html.These comment posters are not reporters; they have no shield law protection, especially since Congress has yet to pass the pending federal shield law. A grand jury can subpoena just about anyone for any reason.But what time, effort and tax-funded expenses are being expended by the U.S. attorney’s office to track down a bunch of posturing blowhards squandering their Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination?My first instinct is to fight the subpoena tooth and nail. After all, John Peter Zenger was just the printer who published anonymous essays critical of the colonial governor. His jury nullified the existing law and freed him.On the other hand, if someone were to confess to a real and specific crime on our Web site, I’d give him up at the drop of a hat.Bottom line: We could fight the federal subpoena, at considerable expense, and lose. Our attorneys are now trying to see if we can limit the scope of the information sought.What the prosecutors don’t appear to understand is that we don’t have most of what they are seeking. We don’t require registration. A person could use a fictitious name and e-mail address, and most do. We have no addresses or phone numbers.To add prior restraint to the chilling effect of the sweeping subpoena, we were warned: “You have no obligation of secrecy concerning this subpoena; however, any such disclosure could obstruct and impede an ongoing criminal investigation. …”I wonder if Thomas Jefferson could have been subpoenaed when he wrote from Paris in 1787: “The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants. It is its natural manure.”The Sedition Act wasn’t passed until 12 years later. I thought it had since been repealed.http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/47141327.html

London BankerJune 11th, 2009 at 2:09 am

Latvia’s devaluation would certainly be harsh but effective medicine. After the resulting crash and domestic dislocation, the economy would offer those with capital to invest many attractive opportunities in the liquidations. Perhaps Russians will buy up the assets liquidated by the Swedes as the rebalance against dollar reserves, and once again imprint their authority on the unfortunate Latvians.As for the future, euroisation might be better approached through a currency board – fixing the lat to the euro practically rather than politically, as has already been done for Estonia and Lithuania. When stabilised, the lat could be discontinued.

Plongka10June 11th, 2009 at 3:17 am

FYI – from AE Pritchard in the UK Telegraphhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/5498989/ECB-fears-bank-crisis-in-2010-as-recession-drags-on.htmlAnd some bright think tank reckons the recession ended in March! LOL.

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 4:06 am

You forget the rest of the article:For AsiaNews a few points need considering:1. When it comes to Italy the world press has tended to focus on Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi’s personal problems rather than on stories like the bonds smuggling affair which has been front page on Italian newspapers.2. The fear of counterfeit bonds and securities has spread across Asia with the result that real securities are also considered with suspicion.3. During the Second World War several countries at war printed and put in circulation perfectly counterfeit enemy money. It is also historically established that some central banks, like the Bank of Italy 65 years ago, issued the same securities twice (identical registered number and code). This way they could print more money with legal tender than they officially declared. The main difference though is that 65 years ago the world was involved in a bloody war, which is not the case today.

PeterJBJune 11th, 2009 at 4:34 am

“Rather than deprive yourselves of material goods and credit that lubricates your economies and the benefits of division of labor, you could stop giving them your money by outlawing anyone’s having over a certain amount that is democratically mandated – say a few millions? I think that’s a far better solution. What do you think of that idea? Anybody?”@ Fairy Nuff on 2009-06-10 16:27:031. No man can be or should be trusted2. No man’s potential should be constrained in terms of social benefit3. There are two economies; 1. the real and 2 the secondary being the alter ego of the former. They should be connected but the real economy must remain inviolate.4. The structure and organizations of this socio-economic relationship must be hard-wired and not permitted to lie with the opinions of ideologists or idealists5. To be housed is civilization (RyskAmp)6. Drop the tax burdens (real stimulus – see Mish)and reduce government spending dramatically.7. Drop imposition and aggression8. Kick out most of the bureaucrats and tell them to get jobs and work for a change9. Delete all large banks to be replaced by many personalized small banquettes within a hard-wired infrastructure that is to say, real infrastructure.10. Create a society of values where people mind their own business and keep their hands out of the pockets of others.There is more; much more.Ho hum

Jason BJune 11th, 2009 at 4:48 am

The price of oil burst through the $71 a barrel mark today amid revelations that proven reserves had fallen for the first time in 10 years and predictions that the price could eventually hit $250.The latest high – from lows of $30 only four months ago – came on the New York Mercantile Exchange, where the cost of July deliveries rose by $1.35 to $71.36.This comes on top of a $2 rise the day before as investors rushed into the market on the back of lower stockpile figures, higher demand estimates and speculation against further falls in the dollar.”I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re testing $80 in a week or two,” said one analyst, while BP’s chief executive, Tony Hayward, questioned whether $90 could be the “right” value.Kuwait’s oil minister, Sheikh Ahmad al-Abdullah al-Sabah, put some of the rise down to signs of recovery in Asia but warned that overall demand was still weaker than last year. Opec would not raise supply at current oil prices but did not rule it out “if it reached $100″, he said.Alexei Miller, chairman of the Russian energy group Gazprom, raised the stakes further when he reiterated last year’s estimates of $250 a barrel. “This forecast has not become reality yet, given that the [credit] crisis gained momentum and exerted a powerful impact on the global energy market. But does this mean that our forecast was unrealistic? Not at all.”The latest surge has also raised fears that higher energy costs could snuff out the nascent economic recovery. Shares on Wall Street’s Nasdaq index fell 1%.The febrile atmosphere in oil markets was fed by the publication of BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, which showed that the world’s proven crude reserves had fallen by 3bn barrels to 1.258tn by 2008 from a revised 1.261tn in 2007.Declines in important producers such as Russia and Norway offset rises in new areas such as Vietnam, India and Egypt. The figures did not include Canada’s tar sands, which are put at 150bn barrels.The drop is partly attributed to a drop in exploration drilling due to the precipitous fall in oil prices last year but also to the end of “easy” oil. Conflict this week in the Amazon and speculation about Arctic drilling underlined how oil companies are pushing into environmentally sensitive places to find new reserves.Tony Hayward, BP’s chief executive, insisted there was enough crude to last 42 years at current consumption levels, roughly the same as last year. Adherents of “peak oil” – the theory that the maximum rate of oil production has been reached – believe supplies will run out much sooner because of growing demand.The BP boss said: “Our data confirms that the world has enough proved reserves of oil, natural gas and coal to meet the world’s energy needs for decades to come.” Higher prices allowed companies to invest in finding further reserves while not choking off demand, he said.”There is a rational argument to say that somewhere between $60 to $90 a barrel is the right sort of level,” he said.Global oil consumption fell 0.6% to 81.8m barrels a day in 2008, the first decline since 1993 and the largest drop for 27 years. North Sea output dropped 6.3% to its lowest level for three decades.By contrast, gas use rose by 2.5% globally and 16% in China. The use of coal, the heaviest emitter of climate-changing carbon, rose 3.1%, with Chinese demand up 6.8%, leaving it with a market share of 43% despite more high-profile announcements about its commitment to renewables.BP says it is difficult to compare “primary” carbon fuels with renewable sources of electricity. BP notes that globally solar capacity rose nearly 70% and wind by 30% year on year but says renewables only generated 1.5% of global electricity and therefore began at a low base.But it notes these sources are playing an increasingly important role in some countries with wind power providing 20% of total electricity generation in Denmark, 11% in Spain and 7% in Germany.Despite the 2008 rise in coal consumption, the BP data showed growth in the use of the fuel continued to decline compared with 2007 when it rose 5% and five years ago when it went up by 8%.But the coal figures will alarm environmentalists and increase the calls for companies and governments to speed up trials on “clean coal” technology and the use of carbon capture and storage.China has promised to increase its use of renewables: Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice-chairman of the China’s national development and reform commission, says the country may produce as much as 20% of its energy from wind and solar by 2020.http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jun/10/oil-market-reserves

HayesJune 11th, 2009 at 5:36 am

Dollar’s Reserve Status May Deteriorate, Roubini Sayshttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9PLmUfhX3v0#une 11 (Bloomberg) — The dollar’s status as the world economy’s sole reserve currency may deteriorate, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis.“We may see complementary reserve currencies,” Roubini said at a conference today in Athens. While it’s “not going to happen overnight,” the development “will diminish the role of the dollar over time.”The dollar’s status has come into question as leaders of Brazil, Russia, India and China discuss substituting other assets for their dollar holdings

MarkJune 11th, 2009 at 5:38 am

I’d like to see how these numbers are arrived at. Also, is this Gross or is it Net (the $5 billion burden/cost)?California is responsible for 1/3 of US food production. We all know that the majority of labor here comes mainly from peoples of color.Let’s not confuse the issue of LEGAL and ILLEGAL immigration. The REAL issue is LEGAL immigration. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7WJeqxuOfQMark

MarkJune 11th, 2009 at 5:50 am

increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is environmentally helpful.Myopic, and stupid! This is one area where I DO think Ron Paul is nuts: just because government can use global climate change to manipulate people (something that Paul fears, and I agree with the concern), doesn’t mean that the premise isn’t valid!It’s an undeniable fact, one that’s not likely commented on, that the REAL issue is the increased levels of CO2 in the oceans! We’re all hung up on what’s in the air, but it’s what’s in the water that has the bigger impact.Mark

MarkJune 11th, 2009 at 5:59 am

I think that Latvia is a harbinger of what’s in store for the U.S.. But when it comes time the U.S. will not have as many options available (such as the IMF).Mark

Fairy NuffJune 11th, 2009 at 6:05 am

I thank you kindly for the response, PJB, but frankly don’t understand what you’re saying. I’d like to ask directly whether you favor or oppose an upper limit on personal wealth…and whether you’d favor or oppose people having the opportunity to vote an upper limit to personal fortunes.(No one ever voted to have no limits – that’s just become the universal default option through ignorance, passivity, and manipulation.)

MorbidJune 11th, 2009 at 6:58 am

From what I have read on this issue I agree that global warming is not man-made. I do believe that CO2 has some damaging issues in other ways, however.I have a Ph.D. in fluid mechanics and I can tell you that computational fluid mechanics is a very difficult process because it is the things you don’t include in the modeling that kill you – make it inaccurate. The computational weather prediction models cannot even predict tomorrows weather accurately – so how on earth can they say they have confidence in making accurate weather predictions 100 years from now? The whole thing is just insane.Ron Paul is a voice crying out in a wilderness of the criminal elite who have highjacked the normal process of science. It’s just politics trying to find a wedge issue that can be turned into political favors and higher taxes so that they can justify further tax and spend policies – and their own existence/hold on power.Reduce populations – that will automatically reduce pollution if that is the concern.Again, read the book Chilling Stars, 2nd ed if you want to enter the No-Spin-Zone.

Free TibetJune 11th, 2009 at 7:10 am

That is, in effect, what Argentina tried to do by tying pesos to $ reserves and it didn’t work. Why would Latvia want to adopt EU monetary policy? Why would anybody want to do that right now when the internal disparities are so great? It couldn’t be a long-term solution.Much greater is the risk of triggering competitive devaluations and the last thing – the very last thing – anybody needs right now is a loss of confidence in the $. And US policy isn’t very favorable to stability right now either. So, a better solution might be to ship BB out to pasture reindeer. Maybe even the Latvians would sleep better. Or, maybe not.

MorbidJune 11th, 2009 at 7:11 am

Wootton notes that the changes his team saw were linked with growing levels of atmospheric CO2, but he readily acknowledges that the global-warming gas might not be the main culprit in this surge in acidity. Instead the acidification the researchers observed could have resulted from a nearby upwelling of deep ocean water loaded with carbon, so the results might not apply to the oceans as a whole.

In Chilling Stars the above issue is discussed. As the Unstoppable Global Warming, every 1500 years (another good book to read) continues – more and more CO2 and methane is being released from the ocean depths.BTW, what is your science background Mark?

MorbidJune 11th, 2009 at 7:31 am

Perhaps Russians will buy up the assets liquidated by the Swedes as the rebalance against dollar reserves, and once again imprint their authority on the unfortunate Latvians.

I have been wondering about this very aspect of this crisis. Will the Russians make a play for these former “blocks.” I would imagine they would like more ice free harbors to say nothing about their own imperialistic ambitions. A coming case of dominos?

MorbidJune 11th, 2009 at 7:43 am

When everybody starts pouring their money into commodities what do you expect? We are screwing ourselves and all other humans who depend on these items for their own well-being by speculating on these essentials – they should be taken off the Casino table – Oil, Food, metals, etc.Now there is REAL CHANGE Obi could try to implement.

MarkJune 11th, 2009 at 8:34 am

Ron Paul doesn’t want government involved in anything. While I agree with many of his positions, he’s not right on all of them.I think that a monkey could figure this stuff out. Humans are unlocking CO2 at rates that wouldn’t naturally occur: deforestation (burning vegetation and releasing CO2 from the soil, as well as pumping and burning fossil fuels).Sure, there are natural occurrences that have and will occur, but that doesn’t absolve us from identifying our impacts and what we can do to mitigate them.I’m reminded of a comment made by Jack Kemp (I believe), that Dr. Albert Bartlett references in his presentation Arithmetic, Population and Energy, that humans have no impact on the environment. Anyone who makes this claim should be forced to spend time in Haiti.Mark

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 8:36 am

5 job hunters for each opening in April | San Francisco ChronicleJune 10, 2009 — There were more than five job hunters for every job opening in April, according to a new U.S. Labor Department report that looks at employment in a different light.The Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey, released Tuesday, estimates how many U.S. firms are hiring in a given month. These detailed figures usually come about 30 days after the monthly unemployment rate is released.Tuesday’s report said there were 2.5 million job openings in April, the lowest number on record since this survey began in December 2000.Given that approximately 13.7 million Americans were unemployed in April, that works out to nearly 5.5 job seekers for every job opening that month.When the recession began in December 2007, employers posted 4.4 million job openings and there were just 1.7 unemployed people competing for each listing, according to Heidi Shierholz with Economic Policy Institute in Washington.”Unemployed workers are facing an increasingly uphill battle in the search for work,” she noted Tuesday.The U.S. unemployment rate was 8.9 percent in April. It rose to 9.4 percent in May and the economy lost 345,000 jobs, suggesting that the odds facing job-seekers will worsen when the next report on openings is released.California’s unemployment rate is higher than the nation’s and stands at 11 percent.http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/06/09/BUM1183NC5.DTL&type=printable

MarkJune 11th, 2009 at 8:40 am

I tend to agree that important resources shouldn’t be open to being whipsawed, but pulling these off the table would mean that “capital” would be forced to slam harder among fewer things (what other, perhaps greater, potential disaster would be unleashed?); and, it’s possible that this might result in under capitalizing these areas.Mark

devils advocateJune 11th, 2009 at 8:41 am

BRIC is rapidly planning to stabilize the world reserve currency/US dollaragainst the will of the USA (but not Germany’s Dr. Merkel I am sure)the campaign is moving on all fronts around the worldChina: “the dollar will not collapse”…10-year treas. note SHOT UP to 4%Russia/Brazil: “diversify out of the dollar”the bankers of USA do not willingly want to relinquish their world powerso we can expect every day more (economic)shots being firedmaybe today we’ll see the 30-year bond rate shooting up————BRIC wants the USA/and its dollar to stabilize not devalue…a weak dollar means USA buys less oil, and goods made in other countries(it’s not only to maintain value in their dollar holdings)China especially with its strong (and smart) coherent govt cannot trustpolitician-buffoons in Washington DC to CUT SPENDINGLatvia is a democracy -the Prime Minister of Latvia says “Really, there is a feeling we could be at the bottom of the crisis, that it is not getting worse.”Dr. Roubini scoffs at this…”Draconian cuts in public spending will be required if Latvia is to improve the current account.”already, the Govt cut public salaries 15% and then 20% more, and soon 15% moresalary of $100 is cut to $58100 -15% = 85 -20% = 68 -15% = 58would our postal service continue if our mail carriers suddenly made so much lesssample salary of $50,000 = 29,000would the Postal Union go out on strike?China understands that the USA Govt is a child on the pleasure principle”I want this and I want that”I can trust China to see us through the mess our politicians are makingChina will not permit our Govt to destroy the US Dollar

MM CAJune 11th, 2009 at 8:55 am

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/breakingthebank/FRONTLINE INVESTIGATES BANK OF AMERICA AND THE GOVERNMENT’S NEW ROLE IN THE BANKING SYSTEMFRONTLINE Season FinaleBREAKING THE BANKTuesday, June 16, 2009, at 9 P.M. ET on PBSKen Lewis, the CEO of Bank of America, is in trouble—a stock collapse; a rocky merger; the worst fourth-quarter losses in at least 17 years; a stockholder revolt; an urgent need to raise more capital despite a $45 billion infusion from the federal government; and on top of that, he effectively has a new boss, President Barack Obama.In Breaking the Bank, airing Tuesday, June 16, 2009, on PBS (check local listings), FRONTLINE producer Michael Kirk (Inside the Meltdown, Bush’s War) draws on a rare combination of high-profile interviews with key players Ken Lewis and former Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain to reveal the story of two banks at the heart of the financial crisis, the rocky merger, and the government’s new role in taking over—some call it “nationalizing”—the American banking system.

devils advocateJune 11th, 2009 at 8:57 am

thanks for juxtaposing – it puts things in sharp focusChinese leader(s) will meet with Pres. Obama June 27and I believe they are giving the GB (Government of Bankers)a taste of interest rates shooting up and a rapid moving on all fronts toreplace the US dollar (and its Govt) dominating the world

devils advocateJune 11th, 2009 at 9:00 am

fascinating …social unrest and anti-USA combined …”Blame it on the USA”when we have to pay $5 a gallon for gas we’ll “Blame it on China”anyone but oursevles

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 9:27 am

The last frontline special about this crisis was dissapointing and superficial. Are they going to use this one to say that the American Banking system is being “nationalized”. Bullpuckey! The American Government has been formally PRIVATIZEDand the megabankers are our masters. I cannot believe how much media excrement the American People are able to tolerate. We are now in a formal financial state as oppossed to the informal indirect financial state of the past.The Main Street economy is spiralling out of control and the bankers will come back to dotheir next operetta and loot some more with aguaranteed creative script. This is not going to stop until the people march on Washington and askto take the government back from the banks. It won’t happen until unemployment hits the 15% government threshold which will really be 25%.Don’t worry about the dollar and treasuries, theTPTB will have a new asian crisis in Eastern Europe and money will be looking for a safe haven.The North Korean will create a crisis soon, andthe Pakistani will have a governmental problem.Money will flood into treasuries just to avoid global asian instability. He who has the ICBMsmakes the rules. Obviously the owner of ICBMs also is controlled by those with the financialdigital bits that act as gold. This was the history of the 20th century and will continue torepeat until the people catch on!

莞式揀女June 11th, 2009 at 9:34 am

Must read:裸選桑拿之我見試過2次,一在樟仔,一在黄江(因皇崗有直巴到上述兩地,我去皇崗較直接)。1.每次4條女,一入房就打開大衣,看了3轉,亦不好意思再看下去,怕被人罵混吉。但真的很過引。($488全包)2.在一間房隔玻璃看(似差佬認人),她們看不到你,那次剛巧有其他人在揀A牌($500全包),樣靚啲,高啲但波細(可能大波已給人揀了)。每次5个人,只穿T-BACK ,還會走近窗前讓你看清楚。我揀B牌($400全包),看了3轉,共看了15對波波,很有AV FEEL,而且一定不會学有次揀了个波大(但除衫後就變了DORLIN,又有肚腩)。所以裸選應該成為莞式揀女趨勢。

MorbidJune 11th, 2009 at 9:36 am

What do you mean by “opinion books?” The titles I provided are documents on scientific findings as found in the geological record.What is your scientific background – guest? Do you really have the kind of mind that can stand to connect more than one dot at a time. Science is like playing a game of chess – you don’t reach cause and effect conclusions easily. You need to see ahead about twenty moves through the morass of interwoven facts before trying to reaching any conclusions. There are way too many wana-bee “experts” making comment on this stuff for my tastes.

SoftwarengineerJune 11th, 2009 at 10:41 am

TAKE HEART GUESTWhen “overpopulation” goes back in to our high school world history books again [it will] and the corporate and extremist fringe groups lose their grip on our economy against populist will; what comes around, goes around. I’m already starting to hear more common sense on global warming’s root cause: “overpopulation”.America should set the environmental example to demography sanity with real science again [depopulation ASAP]. When politicians with banksters/media made depopulating America a “Hate Crime”, I knew they’d shown their real greed and brainlessness. Its political Koolaid right now.Thank God for Earthday!

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 10:48 am

We are all being Latvianized.While Americans still slumber in their waning advantage of being paid in the world’s “reserve” currency, Latvians must earn and pay their debts in lats—lats that are facing depreciation from bankers because they’ve lost their “competitiveness,” due to “global financial shock.” This means, literally, that the amount of debt Latvians owe to their foreign lenders could double, even triple, in devalued lats. How can this be? Well, as Dr. Roubini points out, “the country’s banks are local subsidiaries of Swedish banks” and “a real exchange rate depreciation is necessary to restore the country’s competitiveness.”As a Latvian blogger now living in the United States, Mara, comments in regards to Dr. Roubini’s article posted on Naked Captilalism:“Now the average Latvian is getting wages cut (if they aren’t being fired outright) and many social and government institutions are cutting back dramatically or closing entirely. Why? Because Swedish banks needed to be bailed out of criminal loans with IMF money and the Latvians will suffer for this for at least a decade.”Says Mara, “The unfathomable part was the government’s nodding acceptance to borrow from the IMF to pay for bad private loans given out by mostly Swedish banks (for vastly overpriced real estate). Some of the loans were to locals, some other nationalities that wanted 2nd homes in Latvia. My understanding is that most of the mortgages were full recourse, but certainly not guaranteed by the government…”Concludes Mara, “I would…outlaw mortgages being denominated in foreign currencies and/or payments tied to forex fluctuations, since agreeing to such terms is similar to prostitution, except it costs you, lasts for 15-30 years and does not come with lubricant.”It’s just too bad for Latvians that, according to Dr. Roubini, the “large foreign liabilities of households, companies and banks are in foreign currency,” and that “the real value in local currency of such debts would increase sharply after a devaluation.” And that to delay the “domestic and international costs” will make the “unavoidable crash—and the regional contagion—even more dramatic and cosly.”So easy , isn’t it, for the international bankers to decide how much less those lats held in savings and earned in wages will be worth on the market so as, as Dr. Roubini states, “to restore the country’s competitiveness “?But joblessness, homelessness, and hopelessness are always the price of collectivism under a monetary dictatorship. After all, it’s no secret that the proposed global government at Bretton Woods I was designed upon the principles of socialism, with two proposed weapons of control. One was a monetary weapon — the IMF and its sister the World Bank. The other was a world police force.It’s no secret that monetary control was to be finalized in a world central bank represented as the IMF/World Bank, with the ability to issue a common money which all nations would be urged to accept – under the slogans of international trade and growth, i.e., globalization.As a financial expert on international banking, G. Edward Griffin, warned years ago: Monetary control “is more powerful than mega-tons of atomic energy; it reaches into every shop and home; it can be used with precision against one nation, one group, or even one person while sparing or benefiting all others. “The IMF/World Bank is the protégé of the Federal Reserve – with a sordid history of its members getting rich alleged fighting poverty. As Graham Hancock, an astute observer of the international-aid industry, said in his book, “Lords of Poverty”: [M]oney has never been easier to obtain… [W]ith no messy accounts to keep, the venal, the cruel and the ugly are laughing literally all the way to the bank… All they have to do…is screw the poor.”Mara reference:http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/

FlyOnTheWaLLStreetJune 11th, 2009 at 10:53 am

Be gentle, Morbid.Don’t you think that the use of “Guest” as a moniker gives Guest all of the expert background and credential that one needs to shout out here in the blogosphere?I presume that Guest is a rising star and may soon appear on Cable News.

MorbidJune 11th, 2009 at 11:25 am

Yes, be gentle. Got a little “hot” under the collar there. Will I have to “cap and trade” that?It’s just that when someone like myself has spent over 40 years slaving before the mast of the iron maiden of science – learning that lesson over and over again of just how hard it is to tease out “cause and effect” – that I lose patience with wanna-bees.Sackcloth and ashes are already covering me.

HubbsJune 11th, 2009 at 11:35 am

I have a friend who is with the Coast Guard in NC, his wife is an ER Nurse. They are hell bent on returning to San Diego next month where they own a (mortgage still) smaller house than the one they currently live in NC. They have been renting their CA home for 4 years. Their son is 9, they in their 30′s. Can’t sell their home here in NC, and no renters yet. I told them maybe they shouldn’t be in such a hurry to sell the NC house (which they bought for 250K two years ago, and no offers at 200K)…in case they have to come back…since CA has become a basket case since they were last there 4 years ago. Am I off base here?

MorbidJune 11th, 2009 at 11:38 am

How about pouring that capital into renewable energy stocks! Bid those up into the stratosphere if that is the real helps this planet needs. Of course it is like you have already noted in another thread – provide energy means more humans can survive and more humans means… unsustainability.Well, on second thought – maybe you are right. Let’s bid up the commodities – like this we will starve millions/billions to death and create a sustainable future.All this reminds me of a book I read some years ago – The Sacrament of Abortion – its about limiting population and thus fostering sustainability.

MarvinJune 11th, 2009 at 11:48 am

When are people the world over going to develop the elemental good sense to stop shoveling most of their money, power, and freedom to the fraction few at the top?

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 11:54 am

Starving those at the bottom is stupid, when it’s those at the top whose resource/pollution footprint is – what – thousands of times bigger?

PeteCAJune 11th, 2009 at 11:55 am

GirafThere’s definitely a decline in US power that is going on – and shuffling of forces by other competing nations (esp. Russia, China) to exploit this to their advantage. The Russians had a hard time while oil prices were down, but they are surging back again. That will put new $$ in their coffers (desperately needed – given the dangerous state of their own economy).To me, one thing that is very interesting is this currency deal between China and Brazil. Seen in isolation, it’s part of a gradual erosion of the power of the dollar as reserve currency. Just a small step. But stand back and consider a bigger picture. What if the BRIC countries all took cooperative steps to make a new currency relationship – where they traded directly in their own currencies? If that comes to pass, we would see more currnecy deals negotiated betwen China, Russia, India and Brazil. It would be a very interesting development – if it is pursued as a definite strategy by these players.PeteCA

MM CAJune 11th, 2009 at 11:57 am

Tough to say… Calif has been juggling this hot potatoe for over a year. there are announced devasting cuts in education, state employee jobs, Cal Trans, welafre programs, health insurance programs, etc… I beleive the FED will arrange some sort of borrowing for calif to help. they cannot afford the state to go bankrupt, in spite of what they have said that no help is coming. this has been month to month since January, but as the state controller said the problem is now 5 times larger than it was when they thought thy solved it in February. The bottom line is Calif is bankrupt, Tax revenue reciepts are falling off at a faster pace than they have accounted for. in addtion the housing market is no where close to bottoming out here. Foreclosure are mounting and california is hlding 58% of all option ARMS hitting over the next three years that are going to cause more foreclusres/defualts.California has so many problems with millions unemployed, millions with no health insurance, millions facing foreclosure and there seems to be no plan in place to solve them either by calif of the Fed.its hard to say what will happen- food lines? health care lines? tent citites? shortages? NO JOBS? it will probably be all of that increasing in waves of seriousness over time.All i know is Calif is an indicator of what will happen accross most stateand local goverenments. some states ar enot far behind, liek forida, the Auto states…Maybe tohers can chime in with more specific horrific things that may happen to california. All i know its a disaster already and getting worse and it does seem that people living here ar ein denial still to what is going on.of all the devasting cuts that bothers me are edcuation cuts in k-12 and at the state universitys. this goes counter and directly agianst Obama wanting to help/fix education in this country. msot school districts and boards are incapable of dealing with the cuts about to be imposed on them and ferocity and frequency at which the numbers change.

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 12:11 pm

so if retail sales is 70% of the us economy and it is down almost 10% would’nt that indicate that US GDP will follow close to that decline?

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 12:12 pm

I’m just having a hard time wrapping my mind around the probabilities of certain events occuring out there. In my lifetime, these are a unprecedented circumstances – there is no point of reference by which to judge.It seems clear that no vested interest is going to allow the state to “fail” – but at what point do the vested interests no longer have a say in the matter? I’m sure the Emperor didn’t want to see his empire collapse, but collapse it did (or did it just decline – and if that’s the case, then maybe we’re just watching the death rattle of a once great state).I don’t know why I feel anxious about this, but I do. I think it’s because CA is just a mirror of the entire country. Most states are in similar situations, it’s just not talked about, because their economies aren’t as large. American households are up to their eyeballs in debt, yet nobody’s worried, because credit is still available, and “the recession is almost over”.I guess my overriding question is this: Can the accrual of debt just go on forever? And if not, what’s the tipping point that marks the point of no return. It feels to me like we crossed that point long ago, and yet here we are, stumbling along like an 80 year old alcoholic.

AnonymousJune 11th, 2009 at 12:30 pm

This is baloney. Nothing spectacular on the labor contra capitalists front has been taking place in Russia in recent years. Ditto the United States, ditto even Western Europe. This is another sign of a dead-end and new world war. Capitalists’ worst problem is that they have been so successful in eliminating any viable and progressive opposition to their domination. It means that history will move forward by its ugly side.

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 12:36 pm

Notice the elephant in the facts that is ignored in the global survey below by HSBC Insurance on pension destruction—and that is, the banker/government/corporate role in the deliberate destruction of economic advances made by Americans over the years—including their pensions.The primary attack dog not mentioned in the survey of course is inflation, used by the bankers to maximize the increasing erosion of what corporations have to repay workers for their years of contributing to their pensions. What’s most despicable is the use of surveys of this kind to pre-warn pensioners of coming disaster in hopes of shifting the blame from the bankers and their fund colleagues to the pensioners themselves, helpless victims in this tissue of lies complicated by legalese fine-print regulations and outright theft.Then of course there is the duplicity of corporations and their lobbyists being able to persuade government to sanction their abandonment of pensions promised, paid for, and contracted by the pensioners.Read it all in: Pensions ‘Perfect Storm’ Looms? | Submitted as a guest post to Naked Capitalism by Leo Kolivakis, publisher of Pension Pulse. It begins:_______________________________A ‘PERFECT STORM’ of demographic, individual and financial elements is poised to derail people’s retirement plans unless they prepare properly now, a global survey from HSBC Insurance reveals today (Wednesday 10 June).The fifth annual “Future of Retirement study, It’s Time to Prepare,” shows:· people’s short-term survival strategies in the midst of recession are creating a serious long-term pensions ‘downturn deficit’· there is a continuing lack of pensions planning, even though people are aware that they are likely to live longer· this is being exacerbated by poor levels of financial understanding, education and access to advice· people are more concerned with protecting their possessions in the short-term than ensuring they can look forward to a financially secure retirement.The consequence of these combined factors is that many people will struggle to make ends meet when they come to retire, unless they urgently review their priorities and planning.Stephen Green, Group Chairman of HSBC, said: “A perfect storm is confronting pensions planning, created by an ageing population, falling pension funds values, a drop in state and employer contributions and an economic downturn which is forcing people to make tough financial choices.”…The preparedness gap”It’s Time to Prepare” has identified a ‘preparedness gap’ in people’s pensions planning across the world with nearly 9 out of 10 people not feeling fully prepared for their retirement.The Future of Retirement survey, which questioned 15,000 people in 15 countries, making it the largest study of its kind in the world, reveals:· Only 13% of respondents feel fully prepared for their retirement· 86% do not know what income they will receive in retirement· Only a quarter (27%) feel they fully understand their long-term finances· Approaching half (43%) have undertaken some planning for later life, but still remain unclear about what their retirement income will look like· 14% have done no retirement planning at all.Stephen Green continued: “The ‘preparedness gap’ reveals that families need greater support and guidance to effectively handle their finances, not simply in schools and colleges but through ‘trusted advisers’ providing professional financial guidance…”.”The Future of Retirement”survey shows that, as a result of the economic downturn:· 92% of people have changed some element of their finances· Only 19% will now retire as planned· 17% are reducing retirement savings or stopping saving for retirement altogether· 18% have used savings to pay off debt· 9% expect to delay their retirement …

AnonymousJune 11th, 2009 at 12:43 pm

Yeah, that’s the problem with OUR PhDs. Their advises tend to be always on the Malthusian side. Who pays the piper? Yes, sir!

methinksJune 11th, 2009 at 12:47 pm

@guestDid the Examiner or the White House talk about “illegals” when the capitalists were using this cheap labor to keep wage pressures down and make fortunes during the run-up. Now that the system has imploded, there is a problem with illegals and illegal labor. Now people like “guest” are using them as scapegoats, as if they have anything to do with what is going on. These people were abused and exploited once, and now the real parasites want to skin the ox twice and use them again.Until you see the class interests behind all developments and events in society, you will continue to be played the fool.

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 12:50 pm

Not only Latvia.Our arabian friends are also in deep s’#t:Signs of a new financial storm for September coming from Dubai and Saudi Arabiaby Maurizio d’OrlandoDubai calls on the Rothschild bank for help, perhaps out of desperation. In Saudi Arabia a Saad Group company defaults. US, European and Asian banks are struggling. The end of Ramadan in September might mark the start of an economic depression worse than that of the 1930s.Milan (AsiaNews) – Rothschild’s Dubai office has been retained by Dubai’s Department of Finance for advice on the US$ 10 billion financial support fund (FSF) the emirate raised on the bond markets.Nakheel, the property development arm of Dubai World, was the first to benefit, but is likely to be the last of its kind because funds will be handed out on the basis of two criteria: urgency and strategic importance.In fact government-related corporations deemed essential for the long-term development of Dubai’s economy will be eligible for FSFs. They include firms involved in infrastructure, transportation (ex. the Metro and Maktoum airport projects), aviation, ports, shipping and tourism. Banking might be included and the Rothschild guidelines might be flexible with regard to real estate.This said Rothschild is not getting directly involved but will act through commercial banks in which it has equity or has connections with, like JP Morgan and other ones. Moreover, through the same commercial banks, Rothschild has a say, and a powerful one, over the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY).By law the latter plays a key role in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and thus has a crucial role in making key decisions about interest rates and the US money supply.Through the FRBNY Rothschild is in a privileged position to influence US monetary policy and shaping US monetary supply, crucially important since the US dollar remains the main reserve currency in the world.Dubai’s choice is also part of a ongoing dispute between the Saudis and the Emirates over the location of the single central bank of the Gulf States and what direction to give it.The United Arab Emirates (UAE), especially Abu Dhabi, has recently put the brakes on the whole thing, and in the short run no solution seems to be in sight.The Saudis are considered too close to the United States and thus indirectly to Israel. Gulf States, especially the UAE, favour a Euro-Asian axis that runs from China to Russia that includes Germany, a relationship best illustrated by Opel’s sale to the Austro-Canadian Magna group, which stands in for the Russian state bank Sberbank.The Rothschild family has have been closely associated with the Zionist Movement. The 1917 Balfour Declaration was in fact addressed to Lord Rothschild in which the British government committed itself to the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people.By choosing this banking group, Dubai is distancing itself from the other emirates, perhaps out of desperation.But the Saudis too are facing their own serious problems. The Saad Group, which is linked to The International Banking Corp (TIBC) and the Ahmad Hamad Algosaibi & Brothers Co, is in difficulty.Saudi Arabia’s central bank has frozen all the accounts of Saad chairman, Saudi billionaire Maan al-Sanea, who owns 2.97 per cent of the HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s largest bank based in London.Once known by its full name of Hong Kong & Shanghai Banking Corp., HSBC Holdings Plc is also one of Asia’s main banks.The decision by Saudi Arabia’s central bank comes after an Algosaibi-owned company defaulted on a billion dollar debt.Maan al-Sanea’s Saad Investment Co. had also received a US$ 2.82 billion loan from a group of 26 European, US, Asian and Arab banks in 2007.Such troubles might be a sign of more bad things to come for the banks, especially those in Europe and to a lesser extent in Asia.Conversely, although US banks were hit by the subprime credit crisis in real estate, they are not that involved in emerging markets and eastern Europe.As in the spring of 2008 when the first signs of the coming September financial storm were visible, today’s signs, albeit not front page news, might herald another major storm this fall.But this year’s crisis could be worse than last year’s because of the multiple points of origin. In addition to the weak situation of the US Federal Reserve, whose financial commitments in support of the US banking system are equal to the total US GDP, European banks could go in tilt because of their exposure to emerging markets whilst those of Asia (especially Japan’s and China’s) could suffer because of Asian economies’ heavy reliance on now declining exports.As for Dubai real estate values in the city-emirate have dropped by 50 per cent since before the crisis[i]; insolvencies here and across the Gulf region are rising.At the same time two contradictory trends appear to be coming together. On the one hand, we see that “creata ex nihilo”[ii] e-money might lead to hyper-inflation; on the other, collapsing prices in real goods could lead to deflation and an economic depression worse than that of the 1930s.Indeed in Dubai many expect the next storm to hit at the end of Ramadan, 21 September.http://www.asianews.it/index.php?l=en&art=15402&geo=&theme=&size=A

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 12:54 pm

Ha, preparing for retirement means by definition of banks and insurers:Let rape the idiots as hard as we can.Inflation(raping by the gov) will do the rest.

GirafJune 11th, 2009 at 1:00 pm

Enough of all the whinning and snivelling. Eastern Europeans funded their mortgages in so called hard currencies because the rates, on the surface, were much, much cheaper. The mortgagees gambled and lost. They clearly mis-read the implications of being long assets in a weak currency, funded with liabilities in a strong currency. The got caught in their own version of the Yen carry trade. Plain old greed.

MorbidJune 11th, 2009 at 1:04 pm

Median home prices drop below 1989 levels in some parts of LA Southland

To return to the past, take a stroll down Mulberry Avenue in Lancaster. John A. Beatrice, 55, bought his spacious two-story Spanish-style house there brand-new for $120,000 in 1989. It was a price he could comfortably afford, and he planned on staying through retirement, so he wasn’t worried about price swings.”I always knew real estate goes like this,” said the aerospace engineer, moving his hand in an undulating motion like bell curves on a graph.But he never imagined his neighborhood would drop off the charts. In April, a slightly larger home two doors away sold for $66,500. That’s just over half the $130,000 it went for new in 1992. In 2005, that house sold for $330,000.

I guess property tax collections will continue to fall off a cliff in CA as this meltdown continues.

tutterfrutJune 11th, 2009 at 1:06 pm

Someone seems to be in need of lots of toilet paper…10 y US 3.84%30 y US 4.68%”The government received strong demand, with bidders offering 2.68 times the amount of debt being sold, the highest in a year.”(marketwatch)Very unpleasant, those days with diarrhea, but gives some relief…

SoftwarengineerJune 11th, 2009 at 1:07 pm

AT LEAST AN ENGINEER HAS TO GET A BS DEGREEIt sure beats the Hades out of those “BA in mathematics degrees” they now hand out to teach(?) our high school kids math and science. I say taech(?), because in my local high schools in Washington State, not only can the students not pass 9th grade math graduation test requirements anymore, the ones getting Bs and even As to pass fail miserably on college entrance. They call in “communal schooling” [I call it phony schooling]; the grades are based almost entirely on homework instead of tests.Even Obama agrees that BS degreed math and science teachers need to be paid significantly more than the BA crop….but the teachers’ unions would hang both Obama and I up to dry? LOL

FEDupJune 11th, 2009 at 1:13 pm

agree! By continuing our addiction to credit, borrowing and consumerism we have allowed ourselves to become enslaved to these institutions: the solution, so simple in theory, but not in practice, is to greatly reduce and ultimately stop handing them our money; without it, they lose power, control and we gain it back! We must strive towards self sufficiency, support local businesses and keep control on a local level away from the bureaucrats, politicians and crooks. Yet just like an alcoholic with excuses on why he drinks, most people will have a million reasons why this won’t work and will continue letting big business and govt run their lives into perpetual slavery, without even realizing it.

see.clayJune 11th, 2009 at 1:24 pm

and bonus points for not using restroom passes, perfect attendance, etc – it is just a stockyard, keep em in school so they get the funding. My daughter will have as close to an F as you can get and amazingly they turn into c- at the end of the semester (I dont even wanna get into the make her study harder arguments)

DanJune 11th, 2009 at 1:38 pm

This is a very good sign that the confidence in the US government and the nation‘s economy is being steadily rebuilt. This can certainly be considered as a nice green shoot. Obviously this confidence is having a contagious effect on the stocks, which are on the way up.Let’s hope it will stay the course.

GirafJune 11th, 2009 at 1:39 pm

Reminds me of the good old days of bond trading. Knock prices down ahead of an auction, bad mouth the outlook, run in and scoop the bonds at a cheap price, then run them up after the results are announced and squeeze all the shorts. A thing of beauty, eh Miss America?

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 1:51 pm

The tipping point has already arrived for the counted 6.7 million jobless and the countless millions of others reduced to menial labor and government make-work. Unfortunately, most of these unfortunates tripped over someone else’s mess, namely that of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. Congress, Bernanke and Paulson and Geithner, of course, have turned a blind eye to the collateral damage, at the same time feeding and abetting the perpetrators.But you are right. The American people are at the point of no return. Either Americans restore individual sovereignty now, clean out the filth in the Congress, abolish the Fed and install representation of, by and for the people—or they will live in a collectivist state where government officials and central bankers are the rulers of the people rather than their servants.Debt has to be repaid–with value, not more debt.. The world’s moneylenders have pushed the depth of debt deeper than ever in history, all the while encouraging individuals to add their personal debts to the load. If the borrowing and printing should stop immediately no one knows for sure how long it would take for present and future generations to pay it back.The problem is that even amongst the leading moneylenders, not one knows what’s on the books of the others. Hence, the lack of interbank activity. All they know at the moment is that their best approach is to seize the value of property and labor from the taxpayers to postpone their own insolvencies.But it isn’t going to be solved without massive pain, even if they stop the wealth transfer. Should the American people establish a government to begin solving the crisis now, we still would have hard roads ahead. But if the bankers persist down this road of crippling debt, as is likely, America is headed for an environment of depressions, anarchy, political upheaval, a world of nation failures and perhaps even worse.You can’t debauch the world’s world reserve currency to the point of worthless paper without destroying standards of living around the globe. This crisis begs for monetary sanity, for the restoration of a stable medium of exchange barter, for a return to some permanence, to some dependable source of income and of value. Present banker operations at the Fed are removing the value from the nation’s savings accounts, properties, resources, labor contracts, and business plans in general.A robbery of this magnitude, if not put right, will destroy economic life and freedom as we have known it, in America.

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 2:25 pm

As for me, I’m getting financially seasick from this constant economic churning perpetrated by the Fed. No two days are the same: no economic landscape lasts more than a few hours. How can a person hold down a job, unable to track his financial well being minute by minute, and still hold onto the knowledge that he won’t be financially wiped out by the time he gets home? Do you buy now, later, never; do you invest today, pull out tomorrow. If you leave your computer screen for 5 minutes will some insider or Fed announcement wipe you out? How can a person even bid on a house with any idea what the interest rate will be next day in relation to the asking price determined when rates were low? When will this financial nightmare end?NEW YORK, June 11, 2009 (Reuters) — Mortgage rates leaped with bond yields in the past week to the highest since November, erasing strides made by a massive government program to help revive U.S.In late November, the government announced Federal Reserve programs to buy enormous amounts of mortgage-related debt to reduce loan rates and stabilize the hardest-hit housing market since the Great Depression.The programs were later deepened, putting the Fed on track to absorb up to $1.45 trillion in mortgage bonds and agency notes as well as up to $300 billion in Treasury securities.Average 30-year fixed mortgages jumped 0.30 point to 5.59 percent, the highest since the week ended November 26, Freddie Mac said on Thursday.That is more than a 7/8 point spike just since April, when the rate touched down to 4.78 percent — the lowest since Freddie Mac began tracking it weekly in 1971.Bond yields are a peg for setting home loan rates.After falling sharply, bond yields soared over the past few weeks on economic reports that were not as weak as expected. The promise of record Treasuries issuance to fund various federal rescue programs has also pressured yields higher.Mortgage rates, in response, swung swiftly from record lows back to rates seen prior to the federal interventions.Home purchase activity has been fairly stagnant during this period, based on data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.Mortgage rates remain lower than a year ago, when the 30-year loan averaged 6.32 percent.But refinancing, which is highly sensitive to rate shifts, has fallen to the lowest levels since November.Lenders charged an average of 0.7 percent on loans in the past week, unchanged from the prior week.http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/tre5535ao-us-usa-mortgages-rates/

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 2:37 pm

The average person who participated in such a scheme does not know or understand what you have spelled out. More likely, he or she was following the advice of a banker, mortgage broker, financial advisor, so some other such person in a position of trust.

GirafJune 11th, 2009 at 3:13 pm

I think we all know that if a deal looks too good to be true, it usually is. I think we also all know that there is no such thing as free money.People have to be responsible for their actions.

MorbidJune 11th, 2009 at 3:28 pm

The average consciousness of a nation elects their leadersBamelot and the HOPIUM covered lollypops are in. Thank you for sharing your Third World evidence for this new transformational state of affairs.Devolutionists win.

wethepeopleJune 11th, 2009 at 3:30 pm

Giraf: Read Bernays and Dichter on the use of psycho analysis to mass manipulate vulnerabilities. Then think banking/credit cartel. “Is it wrong to give people what they want by taking away their defenses?”

MorbidJune 11th, 2009 at 4:08 pm

Oh My!Famous Star (Betelgeuse) Is Shrinking, Puzzling AstronomersIt is, they say, 600 light years away. If it is ready to explode the gamma rays could lead to cloud formation that will trigger global cooling on Earth – something documented in Chilling Stars. How is that for a direct experience of science connecting the dots and not the Al Gore’s of the planet talking about Inconvenient Truths. Oh My!

mr cellophaneJune 11th, 2009 at 4:25 pm

Industrial Production Is in Depression. The Federal Reserve reported that seasonally-adjusted April industrial production fell by 0.5% (down 0.3% net of revisions) for the month, after a revised 1.7% (previously 1.5%) decline in March. The year-to-year decline in activity held at 12.5% for April, versus 12.5% (previously 12.8%) decline in March. Such remained the weakest showing for the series since war-time production was shut down after World War II.With annual change down 12.5% and with a peak-to-trough (April is the short-lived current trough) contraction at 16.0%, the industrial sector of the economy (including manufacturing, mining and utilities) is in a depression. A depression is defined (SGS) as a recession where the peak-to-trough economic contraction exceeds 10%.http://www.shadowstats.com/article/flash-update-2009-05-15

PeterJBJune 11th, 2009 at 4:40 pm

“I thank you kindly for the response, PJB, but frankly don’t understand what you’re saying. I’d like to ask directly whether you favor or oppose an upper limit on personal wealth…and whether you’d favor or oppose people having the opportunity to vote an upper limit to personal fortunes.”@ Fairy Nuff on 2009-06-11 06:05:04Let me clear – I am opposed to impositions of any kind as they bind the human spirit and therefore I am not in favour of any limits being imposed on man, which includes limits on wealth for many reasons but specifically, man’s Laws are always an expression of ignorance and therefore stress the building of civilization, and man’s way is to utilize man’s laws, against man from a platform of elitism or leadership. This is history.By facing reality that man is a priori corrupt, but good, we can move forward acknowledging out strengths as well as weaknesses which can be at long last expressed truthfully – even every institutional religion plying for the souls and pockets of men, teach this, but we refuse to acknowledge that we are anything but so wonderfully, wonderful and nice: warm and oozies all round.Man’s spirit is an expression of this where after fleecing all concerned of everything they own, the same person can sacrifice his/her life to save a child or even a dog or cat. Some call this a paradox but paradoxes cannot exist (another blind spot) but it is NOT a paradox; it is the nature of man! You have to understand that the nature of man is non-liner and you have to try – at least – to grasp just what reality is.Man in your mind and understanding is paradoxical – BUT – a paradox cannot exist – work on this.I don’t like leadership because it corrupts and that corruption is imposed on men – accept this and the fundamentals of the nature of men (and life – aka physics) and we can move on to great things.Our leadership is drawn from the lowest common denominator of society and the nature of such men are mainly analogically akin to that of a sewer rat – survival – at all and any cost.So I ask you: Do you wish to spend your life under the imposition of a sewer rat and all its imposed ignorances? Are you not a man?Do you believe that what is running the show today is not self-agenda and the lust for money and power – and this is why the socio-economic collapse is inevitable. It is the nature of ‘extremis’ to heighten and magnify the attributes of the characteristics of the entity, entities concerned and being affected. It is similar to the last moments of syphilis without treatment; sane insanity.The way man functions today IS reality; this is what and how we do it; We are corrupt and corruptible; This is the Judas Principle: Get over it and come to terms with your weaknesses – for this is also, can be, your greatest strength. It is the system that is inadequate where,it is the system that leadership is trying to save; it is done; it is time to move on and adapt – hopefully in reason and accord.No, I am against limitations of any kind apart from the subtle qualitative constraints applied from the application of parochial Universal Principles where life is seen as the expression of the full potential of possibility. The rest will look after itself.It is time to rebuild the originating US Constitution and apply it – parochially – for the whole World and re-express our whole Global Management organization.IOW: Greed is not only good but natural – an innate fundamental response mechanism (IRM) – to man: all we have to do, is to make that greed socially responsible and hence the proposed inviolate connectivities between the real and secondary economies.It is really very simple!Ho hum

devils advocateJune 11th, 2009 at 4:58 pm

Peteif this does develop, it has the potential to move things along more rapidly than most are expectingThanks for the post

devils advocateJune 11th, 2009 at 5:06 pm

thanks for this postDr. Roubini repeatedly says “it’s not going to happen overnight”…it’s not a question of if, but only of how soonworldwide planning for this development cannot be soon enough for China who wants to ensure the stability ofthe US dollar – and global business – at the necessary expense of the dollar to somedegree

devils advocateJune 11th, 2009 at 5:11 pm

p.s.complementary reserve currencies implies a (loose?) set of currency ratiosof each currency against each of the other currenciesestablishing the criteria for the ratioonce oil is sold in each of the currenciesthe dollar is no longer the world’s reserve currencythe US Govt will have to cut spending in order tomaintain the strength of its dollar or suffer inflationto the degree it does not

ThatsTheFactJackJune 11th, 2009 at 5:20 pm

@ “People have to be responsible for their actions.”The only people that have uttered these exact words to me since the summer of 2007 are Wall Street veterans, who by their own admission when asked, are not responsible for their actions.

devils advocateJune 11th, 2009 at 5:22 pm

ppsPetenot one second of news on California’s budget-going-bust has been on TVNADA!

PeterJBJune 11th, 2009 at 5:36 pm

Killing: @ Jason BYou will never stop people killing each other, but you could stop governments, er leadership from promoting, educating, organizing, perpetuating, utilizing, usurping, etc., etc., killing or at least minimize the leadership lust for blood by making it more difficult or better, making it more profitable not to kill.It may interest you to know that the USA is well known as the most murderous society on the Planet and it is said that American’s just kill for the sake of killing. Interesting, non?Multiplicity is existence and therefore reeks of risk albeit in infinite possibility. Only unity can provide you with a risk free habitat and that’s a dead end, for now.What I have, will, do, post(ed) here are purely that: posts, and not some complete white paper covering all possible issues; that comes later, after I’m dead.Want the full blown version?Ho hum

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 5:45 pm

Yes, it is time “to rebuild the originating US Constitution and apply it-parochially-for the whole world” (if they so choose), not for “Global Management” but for individual sovereignty, always remembering that the greatest protection that civilization possesses against the cartel of death that would have its own way is — the law–established by the people and enforced with equality.A good place to start, the soil in which Western Civilization was rooted, is The Ten Commandments.Preparing for the Virginia Constitution and eventually The Constitution of the United States, James Madison spent years of study of the history of confederacies, ancient and modern. At one point, he wrote to Jefferson who was in Philadelphia and later Paris asking him to make occasional purchases of “rare and valuable books” especially “whatever may throw light on the general constitution and droit public of the several confederacies which have existed.” The U.S. Constitution was based on the success and failures of all the many governments that have gone before. Specifically, Madison’s design formed unique checks and balances for self-government.A very religious man once believed to be a possible candidate for the ministry, who took a semi-theological course of study at Princeton and in Virginia, Madison brought heavy emphasis on moral principles to American government.

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 5:50 pm

BULL MARKET for EQUITY and BOND market today!! I bet Ben has something to do with sharp drop in 10/30 yrs yield. Dont fight the Fed.

Donald DuckJune 11th, 2009 at 5:56 pm

Professortoday we had the joy to listen to you here in Athens, Greece”This year, KPMG has the honor and pleasure to welcome, as key-note speaker of the 8th CFO Forum, world renowned Stern School of Business professor, Nouriel Roubini – the man who foresaw the financial crisis in 2006.”Dear ProfessorUnfortunately I was not able to be thereAllow me to make the following question to you because mysteriously none of our journalists here in Greece made it today (and it was a great opportunity though – I checked all the media wo success)In your article of March 14th you mentionned a lot of things with some strong enough arguementshttp://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/255995/reflections_on_the_latest_dead_cat_bounce_or_bear_market_suckers_rallyThe conlusion was clear enough”So, in conclusion and caveat emptor for investors: Dear investors, do enjoy this dead cat bounce and bear market sucker’s rally; most likely most of you will jump the ship as soon as this rally loses its steam; and your attempt to jump ship will make the next round of the bear market bust even faster. Today short-selling covering is leading to a more pronounced bear market rally; at some point in the future the capitulation of investors trying to sell their equities at the peak of the latest bear market rally will make the next round of the bear market bust faster and more pronounced. So, don’t wait too long until you jump ship while the financial Titanic hits the next financial iceberg: you may get squeezed and crashed in the rush to the lifeboats.”Professor, on behalf of all the greek journalists who missed to ask you todayDo you still have the same thoughts like those of March 14th?A Production EngineerGreetings from Athens

PeterJBJune 11th, 2009 at 5:58 pm

It is important, no, vital to note that the last chosen President of the United States of America declared the Constitution of the USA:”just a goddam bit of paper” (drawn from memory, so please correct me if I have these words wrong)such is the state of American leadership.

MorbidJune 11th, 2009 at 6:26 pm

An Easily Understandable Explanation of Derivative MarketsHeidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit. She realizes that virtuallyall of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can nolonger afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem, she comes upwith a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but paylater.She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting thecustomers loans).Word gets around about Heidi’s “drink now, pay later marketing strategy”and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi’sbar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Detroit!By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands,Heidi gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantiallyincreases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages.Consequently, Heidi’s gross sales increase massively.A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes thatthese customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increasesHeidi’s borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, sincehe has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral.At the bank’s corporate headquarters, expert traders transform thesecustomer loans into DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS. Thesesecurities are then bundled and traded on international securitymarkets. Naive investors don’t really understand that the securitiesbeing sold to them as AAA secured bonds are the debts ofunemployed alcoholics.Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb, and the securitiessoon become the hotest-selling items for some of the nation’s leadingbrokerage houses.One day, even though the bond prices are still climbing, a risk managerat the original bank decides that the time has come to demandpayment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi’s bar. He soinforms Heidi.Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons. Beingunemployed alcoholics, they cannot pay back their drinking debts. SinceHeidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations, she is forced into bankruptcy.The bar closes and the eleven employees lose their jobs.Overnight, DINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS drop in price by 90%.The collapsed bond asset value destroys the banks liquidity and preventsit from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in thecommunity.The suppliers of Heidi’s bar had granted her generous payment extensionsand had invested their firms’ pension funds in the various BONDsecurities. They find they are now faced with having to write off herbad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds.Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a familybusiness that had endured for three generations. Her beer supplier istaken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant andlays off 150 workers.Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respectiveexecutives are saved and bailed out by a multi-billion dollar no-stringsattached cash infusion from the Government. The funds required for thisbailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle class,non-drinkers.Now, do you understand?

MarkJune 11th, 2009 at 7:31 pm

Much of the starvation is due to western industrialist systems. Did you hear of mass starvation before the west started cranking up its food production?The Green Revolution is the greatest testament to this.If someone is concerned about food, grow it! If someone is concerned about energy, invest in it or create/build your own systems.Mark

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 7:37 pm

Not sure Morbid; Do you mean The CDS Casino?Wally (Wall Street) goes to Smallville (Reagan/Bush/Clinton/Bush Administrations) and talks to the mayor about opening a casino in town. The mayor thinks it is a fantastic idea. Wally says there are a couple of preconditions though, he wants the casino to have special tax breaks for the players and no regulation or interference whatsoever in whatgoes on inside the casino. Fair enough, the mayor and the city council are glad to oblige. In fact, he and a lot of local people want to play too through player-representatives (hedge funds). The mayor and his friends are going to make a killing on the casino coming to town. They want him to run for Governor next term.The casino Wally is setting up is very different from the traditional casino in that there is no “House” to cover the bets. The role of the traditional casino “House” is taken up by the other party to each bet made at any table (transaction) in the casino. The “House” (Wall Street) is providing the facility and the playing field for the players, who are mostly known to each other and the House anyway. A critical feature of the casino is that bad or good bets at the crap table are covered by another player at the crap table, not the House. Those are the rules. The volume of action in the casino is only limited by the number of IOUs other players are willing to accept. The IOUs are payable in US dollars.The players adore this game. They walk in with $100 and can buy $5,000 worth of IOUs (chips), “nominally” issued by the House, but only as a custodian for the players; like a private clearing house. The chips are the IOUs (derivatives, CDS contracts, MBSs, etc.) while a player is involved in the game. Winners and losers are made every minute by the action at the various tables, which differ only in the type of game (cards, dice, roulette, slot machine, etc.), not in the substance of an IOU exchanging hands for the right to play.One day, one of the “high-rollers” at the casino has a few of his IOU’s called-in by other players and whoa! He doesn’t have the money to cover his IOUs! In fact, it turns out he has big losses already in the game. He starts trying to collect on some IOUs he holds and finds that some of them aren’t any good. He was having so much fun playing the game and making so much money for himself and his staff on a current basis, in terms of fees and reporting profits to his friends and shareholders, that that there was no need to think about these details. The casino had everything going for it, political cover, it’s own bank creating money, albeit phantom money, private exchange, and a host of “brilliant”, credible players with deep pockets.Now Wally has a problem. Other players are lined-up outside his office wanting to collect on some of their IOUs. Wally doesn’t have the money, he’s just the casino facilities operator he tells them. “I”m just the clearing house taking a cut. You knew what you were doing when you gave and took those IOUs”, he tells them. But they shout, “You have the power and wherewithal to cover us!” Some of us have more IOUs going the wrong way and didn’t balance our IOU portfolios, and unpaid IOUs will only make the problem worse! Your reputation is on the line and you are in this too Wally”, they plead. So, Wally goes to the mayor of Smallville and suggests that Smallville’s citizens need to cover the bets made by the players at the casino. After all, they benefited too, Wally argues. Wally brought in lots of money to Smallville’s town council and other politicians. Funds flowed to Smallville and its environs and they also put a lot of money into the mayor’s upcoming run for Governor.The mayor doesn’t like it because he knows it is going to be hard to spin to the citizens of Smallville, but the alternatives as explained to him, are bleak indeed. “What else can I do?” he mumbles to himself constantly. The town’s economy has become dependent on Wally’s business. The local economy will collapse since some of the local commercial banks are carrying some of the high-rollers IOUs. The political pressure is enormous from Wally and his influential friends. The mayor goes along again. “What else can I do? File a law suit? Against whom? For what?”, he tells his staff and neighbors.Finally, an aide in the mayor’s office exclaims, “Wait a minute! Why can’t the casino patrons get together and cross-eliminate all these bets? Net them out, gains against losses? It’s all IOUs anyway. It doesn’t matter how many times removed any particular IOU is from one another. They are all holding IOUs transacted at the casino! They put them all together in a big pot and compress them down to the nub, eliminating all of the debits and credits. The last players holding the IOU in excess of someone’s else ability to pay take the netted-out loss. That way, the largest players in the game that are still around take their losses. How do we know they don’t also have astronomical profits from the casino? And even if they don’t, what can they do, sue us to cover their losses? We didn’t know anything about their gains and losses. If anyone is going to be sued they will sue each other over not paying their respective IOUs after compressing them to the nub. Why should we and our citizens vouch for the action at the casino?”Another said, “Even Wally had friends who weren’t patrons of the casino, but most of his friends were regulars.”Then, another of the mayors aides said, “I get it. They created a type of currency with these casino chips that were convertible into Smallville dollars.” Another said, “Now if only the City Council could understand, but they are only listening to Wally and his friends.”The citizens of this Republic need to understand this. In fact, it is the duty of those of us who do understand it to explain it to them. The substance of the above metaphor accurately reflects the details, regardless of Wall Street lawyers holding up 500-page CDS contracts. That is Wall Street spin. You see, Wall Street lawyers made a fortune in this market as well. And in case you weren’t informed, we are too stupid to understand what these “brilliant people” have “created” for our benefit. The “brilliant” people on Wall Street, the likes of Secty. Paulson, the progeny of numerous university business school professors, the main-stream press, et al, is just drivel. Wall-street spin, or as David Reed would say, “failed physicists.”The remaining investment banks and other players want you and I to cover their IOUs and keep the casino in business. If that isn’t brazen enough, we don’t even get a tax subs idy like they did on their profits, and still are getting!The correct response of the mayor of Smallville is simple, if someone could inform him and he had any integrity. Let the casino players unsort (“net out”, or “compress”) the pool of IOUs and sue each other over non-payment of their 500-page CDS contracts. Their shareholders, hedge fund participants and other investors would take the compressed losses, however much it might turn out to be. $1 trillion? $2 trillion? $5 trillion? The shareholders and investors of the regulated and non-regulated financial institutions around the world can absorb those numbers without burdening the already harassed citizens of Smallville. Just Alan Greenspan. If the citizens of Smallville understood that, maybe the mayor would change his mind since he is running for Governnor next year. Maybe he would find the strength to do the right thing, to do his duty by his fellows. The Smallville banks that participated at the casino have to be compressed as well, and some will fail. That’s unpopular in some circles of Smallville. Perhaps many will fail, so what? Won’t they likely fail anyway? Wasn’t the value proposition that Wally came to Smallville with in the first place exactly that, i.e., the IOUs were an elegant, fool-proof way of “spreading the risk” on losses and of collecting on the IOUs? Yes, that’s exactly what the physicists, mathematicians and high-rollers that came with Wally to pitch the mayor had said. They said it over and over again as the casino was operating 24×7.On the contrary, Wally, the mayor and all of their friends in the media frightened the citizens of Smallville into believing that they had to incur further indebtedness and pledge what remains of their vanishing wealth to cover the outstanding IOUs at the casino. No compression is necessary as long as a few of the high-rollers avoid scrutiny and prop-up the IOU market (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, certain purchased entities of other bankrupt high-rollers), because Wally and the mayor now have everyone convinced that the high-rollers bets need to be made whole, or they will suffer too, even worse. They have been heard to say, “We are all in this together.” Yes, but only those who played at the casino, not those who did not.Charles BrownJanuary 24, 2009 12:57:07 PM PST

MorbidJune 11th, 2009 at 8:22 pm

Thanks for the kind thought. But I would not like to continue the human experiment any further – it is such a disaster.I say, let EVOLUTION do its thing.

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 8:26 pm

I agree with you Giraf, but my guess is that to the poor slob on the street it wasn’t a too good to be true proposition. Think of it as being presented as here’s a technique used by the big boys and you can use it too. The average person is easy prey for financial sophistry.

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 8:28 pm

Who gets to benefit from that confusion? :) yeah you guessed it. Hedging against all odds is underway.

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 9:00 pm

its 600 light years away it might had exploded 600 million light years ago. in that scenerio gama ray burst might be min or hours away. :)

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 9:08 pm

sorry meant to say that it might had exploded 600 light years ago. That means we are looking at that star as it was 600 light years ago. So if the gama ray burst is headed our way we wont know untill it had already hit us. Light from the sun takes eight minutes to reach earth so whenever we look at sun we see the sun as it was eight minutes ago. Light is the speed limit of the universe but beacause of that speed we are able to look in the past.

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 9:19 pm

you say that whats contained in us constitution was never heard of before or after its conception in any other part of the world. These same ideas have existed in different parts of the world through out history. In recent history though these ideas were practiced mostly in us. US if an infant compared with other old parts of the world and they have experienced all kinds of ideas and systems over time.

P&LJune 11th, 2009 at 9:21 pm

Can anyone explain why China would be stocking up to such an extent?”China Fills Its Pantry With Global Commodities”http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/11/business/economy/11commodity.html?_r=1&emWhy would this be a worthwhile strategy? Are they expecting supply interruptions? If the dollar continues it’s slide, does the yuan sink in relative value also? Thanks for your insights.

P&LJune 11th, 2009 at 9:21 pm

Can anyone explain why China would be stocking up to such an extent?”China Fills Its Pantry With Global Commodities”http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/11/business/economy/11commodity.html?_r=1&emWhy would this be a worthwhile strategy? Are they expecting supply interruptions? If the dollar continues it’s slide, does the yuan sink in relative value also? Thanks for your insights.

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 9:26 pm

C’mon everybody! Let’s get some contoversial stuff up for debate. It’s getting pretty boring around here.

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 9:32 pm

See Giraf’s comments earlier on this thread.I think they think that commodities are a better alternative to dull old U.S. government bonds. (Unfortunately, they don’t seem to have learned about the beatings CALPERS and other large institutional investors have taken in that would be “asset class”). Worst case scenario is that they can use all this stuff when the global economy picks up in 5 to 10 years time. In the meantime, it boosts their case for “another reserve currency”.

HopefulJune 11th, 2009 at 10:19 pm

I have a really, really, really good feeling the central banks will knock gold back to $800/oz before anything bad happens.

jugglincdsJune 11th, 2009 at 10:24 pm

Ive had that feeling since i started reading this blog…………i wanna “BAT” sumthin lol

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 10:35 pm

Yeah, I love his Green Shoots at the start and at 4:15 his printer pinata with “better than expected”. It is just hilarious.

blind barnacleJune 11th, 2009 at 10:42 pm

@pjb above…”Man in your mind and understanding is paradoxical – BUT – a paradox cannot exist – work on this.”.always working on this. i think i know where your going with it..couple things.. man , an individual single man, is nothing either to himselfor the world or the universe at large other than a witness to the miracleof all of life. and a vulnerable and fragile witness at that.i think this is why the female praying mantis devours the head of the maleduring copulation, or whatever they call it. if she didn’t do it the malewould probably just compete with her for food and then eat all of her littlemanti? just a guess.the human male in a social setting “should” have better prospects andcertainly has the capacity for a more enlightened contribution to hisown race, one can only hope. culture being as fickle an emergent as it iswhile not making man paradoxical, can render him and his actionsapparently absurd. maybe entirely absurd. but this is just manas he is defined and conforms to his idea of his cultures whims. so wehave the sane insanity you mentioned. tragic comedy of perfectlynormal insanity..controversy. ok. but i am sorry if this is becoming a sicknessbut this one is appropriate, interesting, educational and humorous.the quadfecta….tom waits…Army Ants :The Whirligig Beetles are wary and fast with an organ to detect the ripples.The Arachnid Moths lay their eggs inside other insects along the borders of fields or roads in clusters of white cocoons.The Ribbed Pine Borer is a longhorn beetle, their antenna’s are half the length of their body and they feed on dead red pine.Robber Flies, with their immobile heads, inject a paralyzing fluid into their prey that they snatch from life in mid-air.The Snow Flea’s mode of locomotion, strange and odd, with a spiny tail mechanism with hooks and a protracted tube from the abdomen to enable moisture absorption..The female Praying Mantis devours the male while they are mating. The male sometimes continues copulating even after the female has bitten off his head and part of his upper torso.Every night wasps bite into the stem of a plant, lock their mandibles into position, stretch out at right angles to the stem and, with legs dangling, they fall asleep..If one places a minute amount of liquor on a scorpion, it will instantly go mad and sting itself to death.The Bombardier Beetle, when disturbed, defends itself by emitting a series of explosions, sometimes setting off 4 or 5 reports in succession. The noises sound like miniature popgun blasts and are accompanied by a cloud of reddish coloured vile smelling fluid.It is commonly known that ants keep slaves. Certain species, the so-called Sanguinary Ants in particular, will raid the nests of other ant tribes and kill the queen and then kidnap many of the workers. The workers are brought back to the captor’s hive where they are coerced into performing menial tasks..And as we discussed last semester, the Army Ants will leave nothing but your bones.Perhaps you’ve encountered some of these insects in your communities, displaying both their predatory and defense characteristics, while imbedded within the walls of flesh and passing for, what is most commonly recognized… as human.

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 10:46 pm

The best is at the very end — “They could have dropped an Atomic Bomb on America and we would be better off!”

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 10:47 pm

I do have high speed. I just don’t have a lot of friends who forward the stuff that makes the internet rounds. Guess it depends on your perspective as to whether that’s a good thing or not.

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 10:59 pm

No disrespect LB, but bankers are idiots.I bumped into a local banker in the supermarket and we chatted. Then I said “So, you guys are so worried about loosing CRE value, you are just frozen in fear?” He says “Yup.” As we look out at all the other grocery shopper busyly manuvring the produce, I say “To bad these people do not have a clue.” He says “Yup.”

blind barnacleJune 11th, 2009 at 11:06 pm

d,from your lips to my ears (another indication of insanity?). relax. thank you for using thatword. if you read through this blog from last august to todayyou will find that particular word used exactly once. yes, by you.think about it, you may have lost your mind!again, thanks for the use of the word. i used to use it frequentlymyself.i’m not a big fan of medications, though i know some peoplemake out well with them.

GuestJune 11th, 2009 at 11:53 pm

Radioactive wasps bug out nuclear cleanup workersYAKIMA, Wash. – If workers cleaning up the nation’s most contaminated nuclear site didn’t have enough to worry about, now they’ve got to deal with radioactive wasp nests. Mud dauber wasps built the nests, which have been largely abandoned by their flighty owners, in holes at south-central Washington’s Hanford nuclear reservation in 2003.http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090612/ap_on_re_us/us_radioactive_wasps

AnonymousJune 12th, 2009 at 1:38 am

wasps??—————————————now we know why NIkkei Breach 10k today, Free Sushi from the skyTalk about Good Omenhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/5491846/Sky-rains-tadpoles-over-Japan.htmlSky ‘rains tadpoles’ over JapanResidents, officials and scientists have been baffled by the apparent downpour of tadpoles in central Japan’s Ishikawa Prefecture.Clouds of dead tadpoles appear to have fallen from the sky in a series of episodes in a number of cities in the region since the start of the month.Upon further exploration, he found more than 100 dead tadpoles covering the windshields of cars in an area measuring 10 square metres.Dead tadpole downpours were also reported by local officials 48 hours later in the city of Hakusan in the same prefecture.

GuestJune 12th, 2009 at 2:15 am

The Power of Genetics!So during a time when consumer confidence has hit record lows, and businesses short on credit are ratcheting things down, Paulson wants Portland taxpayers to spend at least $80 million the projected cost of the two stadium projects on his business venture?via Merritt Paulson « Free Andy LaRoche.So a colleague just forwarded this to me — it would be hilarious if it wasn’t so disgusting. Apparently Merrit Paulson, the demon spawn of national hero Hank Paulson, has managed to sucker the city of Portland into giving him $80 million in taxpayer money to help him finance, of all things, a pro soccer stadium.It’s bad enough when mega-rich jerks like Paulson steal money from taxpayers to finance their vanity sports projects; even the bailout isn’t as big a ripoff as the stadium game, which allows monsters like the Steinbrenner family to take money from firefighters and teachers to help subisidize Alex Rodriguez’s $30 million salary, his nights out on the town with Madonna and Kate Hudson. But when it’s Henry Paulson’s son and he’s taking taxpayer money to fund not football, not baseball, but professional soccer, this just flat-out crosses the line. What’s next? Public funding for a store selling French ribbed turtlenecks? Subsidy for a Belgian man-purse factory? As business ventures of idle rich offspring go, this has to rank somewhere near JFK Jr.’s plans to mass-produce hand-made kayaks.At what point are we going to stop handing taxpayer money to people who don’t need it? Is this ever going to end?http://trueslant.com/matttaibbi/2009/06/11/the-power-of-genetics/

MarkJune 12th, 2009 at 2:39 am

Nor military… As a matter of fact, the Hummer is the quintessential communist vehicle- worthless, but has the appearance of being useful!Mark

MorbidJune 12th, 2009 at 3:48 am

When you see a white glow in the sky about the size of the moon it seems – it will be bombarding us with its radiation. Just how intense the effect will be on global cooling – well we are the experiment. Read Chilling Stars to get up to speed. Like the other poster said – if we see it in the sky tomorrow it means it went supernova 600 years ago.

GuestJune 12th, 2009 at 4:08 am

another interesting fact is that time(space time) is not constant its relative( thanks to einstien). So faster one travels slower the time pases( thats why astronauts who spend time in the space station come back little bit younger because of great speeds at which space station orbits the earth) but when speed of light is reached the time stops( remember its relative). So if a(humanoid) can manage to travel at the speed of light time will stop for the traveller ( best way of staying young for a extremly long time but not for eternity because even the photons”light” fade away). So if one starts out on a cosmic journey through the cosmos from earth at the speed of light and lets say come back after thousand years it would be for the traveller as if he had returned same moment he had left, eventhough thousand years would have passed for the earthlings. But the biggest hurdle in that is einstien’s equation E=MC2 which means when mass travells at the speed of light it converts into energy.:)

MarkJune 12th, 2009 at 5:04 am

Stiglitz nails it.Break the Banks, for the Good of the PeopleBailing out the big US banks has done nothing to improve them[Excerpt:]America has expanded its corporate safety net in unprecedented ways, from commercial banks to investment banks, then to insurance, and now to cars, with no end in sight. In truth, this is not socialism, but an extension of long-standing corporate welfarism. The rich and powerful turn to the Government to help them whenever they can, while needy individuals get little social protection.We need to break up the too-big-to-fail banks; there is no evidence that these behemoths deliver societal benefits that are commensurate with the costs they have imposed.This raises another problem with America’s too-big-to-fail, too-big-to-be-restructured banks: they are too politically powerful. Their lobbying efforts worked well, first to deregulate, and then to have taxpayers pay for the clean-up. Their hope is that it will work again to keep them free to do as they please, regardless of the risks for taxpayers and the economy. We cannot afford to let that happen.[End Excerpt]Mark

GuestJune 12th, 2009 at 5:32 am

blind one, you are my medication. i wish all could be reduced to nothing then maybe this world of fantasy we have created would leave no one blind

Mother of Merciful God!!June 12th, 2009 at 6:27 am

So. You are unashamed to announce you are in favor of the extinction of the human race because “it is such a disaster”? How foolish are you to set yourself up as judge and jury of the human species God made? How you embody the fall from Grace back in the Garden of Eden! – having eaten of the fruit of the tree of the knowlege of good and evil, you are now proudly proclaiming you will only accept the “good” bits of God’s works you judge likable and reject the “evil” bits you don’t like…to the point of ridding the Earth of Humans.You dare look at what Creator made and say “I’ll have the bits I judge good, I’ll reject what I judge bad.”This is the ultimate hubris, and it is error.I don’t know you, but I know your kind – and you are hereby requested to get out of the way of the lovers of humanity who are willing to do the hard work of fixing our errors – the errors God delivered us to SO HE COULD SHOW US WHAT MERCY IS…SO HE COULD SHOW US HIS MERCY.

Fairy Nuff / M of GJune 12th, 2009 at 6:43 am

Thanks again, very sincerely, for responding, PJB. My expose of the grand and primary errors I believe I can show you are making will take some time to write up, but I promise to post it sooner or later…along with other responses I have for others from other threads. (I have, again, guests coming to shelter here at my house next week, and am too busy with preparations to write it all up right now. Apologies for the delay!)

Mother of GodJune 12th, 2009 at 7:13 am

you have forgot my use of ‘relax’, Dear Blind One…and you have forgot so you can remember…because life is a cycle of remember and forget…there is no remembering without forgetting…the prodigal son could not re-arrive to find his father’s love had he not left to go get dirty in the world…so because we forget we can remember…because we depart we can re-arrive…because we know rainy day we can know sunny day…because we fall we can rise…everything is recognized through its opposite…Creatorness had only the alchemy of opposites with which to create this imperfect finity (the world) from the perfect infinity (existence existing)…God said my name is I AM, not I am this or that…AM = IS = Existence…God’s scientific name is Existence…Eternally existing”Fall if you but will, rise you must” “Begin to forget it, it will remember itself from every sides” (JJ FW)Existence existing eternally (and, thanks to our being here, knowing it exists) – is all there is. Relax, you’re soaking in it!Welcome to the Eternal Happydance of the Dance-happy Atoms! Take heart, for Ultimately, nothing can be wrong in the Universe. The river of Life is flowing safely between its banks.It’s not about what the baby is building with his blocks: he will build and then knock down his building with squeals of glee. It IS about the baby building, Baby!Let’s dance, Baby! The Daffodil Revolution has begun!

MichelleJune 12th, 2009 at 7:14 am

Alright class, what could possibly be going on today that would cause the sell-off in precious metals, oil, global stock markets, and a rise in the USD?One shiny gold star for the correct response!

blind barnacleJune 12th, 2009 at 7:35 am

cds auction settlement thingy….tying it all together.. it has rained for a week here, ny, withelectrical storms the last two nights to raise the dead. even zombies?beetlejuice and toads from the sky.. so here is this..”Earth Died Screaming”(Tom Waits).Rudy’s on the midwayAnd Jacob’s in the holeThe monkey’s on the ladderThe devil shovels coalWith crows as big as airplanesThe lion has three headsAnd someone will eat the skin that he shedsAnd the earth died screamingThe earth died screamingWhile I lay dreaming of youWell hell doesn’t want youAnd heaven is fullBring me some waterPut it in this skullI walk between the raindropsWait in Bug House SquareAnd the army antsThey leave nothin’ but the bonesAnd the earth died screamingWhile I lay dreaming of youThere was thunderThere was lightningThen the stars went outAnd the moon fell from the skyIt rained mackerelIt rained troutAnd the great day of wrath has comeAnd here’s mud in your big red eyeThe poker’s in the fireAnd the locusts take the skyAnd the earth died screamingWhile I lay dreaming of you

MichelleJune 12th, 2009 at 7:48 am

What BRIGHT students! BB and Mark, you are my shiny gold star recipients! Congratulations!Isn’t it a bit frightening to know that there’s so much speculation out there that all these markets can move on ONE silly thing? CDS’s should be banned.

tutterfrutJune 12th, 2009 at 7:49 am

The Banking Cartel bought stockmarket in March, pushed it up, took its profits over the last weeks and passed the hot potatoe stocks to pension funds and other loved ones. They pay off the TARP money(stock market casino chips) and stocked the profit in UST 10 >3.5% and UST 30 >4.5%.Let sell off happen. Flight to safety. Treasuries rise. Take profit.Rince..repeat?

Little SaverJune 12th, 2009 at 7:59 am

Nature Hates a Fraud: Cheating Wasps Get Beat Up”Wimpy wasps with spotty faces, who are signaling that they are strong, get beaten up by their opponents,” study leader Elizabeth Tibbetts of the University of Arizona told LiveScience. The behavior “prevents cheaters from prospering,” she said.Just heard that AIG logos are removed everywhere.Not without reason, it might be a little edgy these days to park a Ferrari and step out with an AIG logo somewhere.It’s a small world, sometimes things appear as simple as they are. Wasp justice works. Human’s? Well, don’t be blind for the facts.http://www.livescience.com/animals/041110_fakes_nature.html

thimmaJune 12th, 2009 at 8:16 am

The thinking among the elite maybe that too many pensioners with free time may lead to revolution. Work is good.

Little SaverJune 12th, 2009 at 8:20 am

In a small, simple community, cheaters don’t get far. Huge, complex communities come with numerous occasions to hide. Result? Cheating bubbles of never seen proportions. Cheaters rule.Simple.Easy.Next bubble, here we come.

JLarkinJune 12th, 2009 at 8:21 am

Wow, a German company is planning to add another hotel in Atlanta. Office vacany is climbing, bix travel is down, CRE is falling off a cliff (calculatedrisk.com).http://atlanta.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2009/06/15/story5.html?ana=e_phMaybe the green shoots are real. Maybe it’s not earnings after all, but investor confidence that puts the economy on solid ground. The market surely knows that more bandruptcies, more bank failures, more foreclosures and consumer defaults are on track for 2009-2010. S&P at 666 was way oversold? Nouriel needs to show his S&P P/E ration numbers again, explaining that the “rational” level of the S&P should be 600-700. The market certainly appears to be irrational right now. I hear other experts, like former bear Jeremy Grantham, saying that the P/E ratio is about right. Who knows?

MM CAJune 12th, 2009 at 8:34 am

I was involved in a Stadium Development project in Petaluma CA three years ago with good old Merrit. He Said how much him and his family loved the area and wanted to move there. within 3 months he stiffed everyone and left for Portland. Just like his father, going around stiffing people.

GuestJune 12th, 2009 at 8:40 am

News from Reggie Middleton’s Boom Bust Blog – NewsletterFor those that have been following the congressional hearings concerning Lewis and the B of A purchase of Merrill Lynch, it should be obvious that congress is gunning for Bernanke, and possibly Paulson and Lewis as well. Lewis has come quite close to perjuring himself.Fed Transparency – Let’s Get Some SunlightPlease consider this message below. You can be an integral part to getting some sunshine and transparency on the Fed, closing a loophole that should have never existed to begin with. I believe the headlines of this message sum up the point I am trying to convey:* Let’s close the loophole by encouraging our Congresspeople to sign HR 1207* Bernanke has left his tremendous actions in the dark, and no one is watching* The murmurs we do hear imply he is systematically overpaying* His actions are scaring our trade partners, and he is putting us all at risk* Enron lobbyists will not heal his wounded reputation* Fiscal functions require approval, but not (yet) when the Fed does it!* We are almost over the finish line, which we can cross with 5 minutes of your timeLet’s close the loophole by encouraging our Congresspeople to sign HR 1207There is a loophole that has led to the spending or guaranteeing of at least $6.5 trillion (Actually, taxpayer total future bailout obligations stand at $11 trillion) with absolutely no oversight or understanding of where the money went. HR 1207 seeks to close this loophole, and with 213 co-sponsors, we are only 5 away from its closure. With your help we can close it and shine some light on the Federal Reserve.

GuestJune 12th, 2009 at 8:49 am

Banks have started repaying their debt to the government much sooner and faster than I ever could expected.How did they earn so much money so fast? I am assuming they are paying back from profits.Would someone please help me understand this?Thanks

DDJune 12th, 2009 at 8:57 am

All, I was under the impression that this is a free site/blog.I just received an email from someone in my Market Data Services group asking me if I want to renew my subscription to RGE for $600 for the year.Has anyone else received this?I’m suprised because I’ve been following this site for years now and this is the first I have heard of a fee for it.Thoughts?

GirafJune 12th, 2009 at 9:07 am

Some of the banks didn’t need the cash in the first place. It was forced on them to avoid the stigma for the banks that actually needed it. JPM is a likely example of a bank not needing the dough, while WFC may be one that did. By giving every one of the majors money, the Treasury kept it secret who was in trouble and who was not.Clearly, all the banks would like to pay back the money because “the conditions” cramp their style. According to what I’ve read, however, is that only 9 are in a sound enough position to do so.Which begs the question: “Should you keep any of your money in the banks that aren’t in a position to repay TARP funds?”

GirafJune 12th, 2009 at 10:45 am

I’m shocked that one of you Wall street/bank haters haven’t posted the following article from yesterday’s Wall Street Journal.Seems that a little outfit in Texas beat them at one of their own games.A Daring Trade Has Wall Street SeethingTexas Brokerage Firm Outwits the Big Banks in a Mortgage-Related Deal, and Now It’s WarBy GREGORY ZUCKERMAN, SERENA NG and LIZ RAPPAPORTA canny trade by a small brokerage firm in two markets at the heart of the financial crisis has left some of the biggest players on Wall Street crying foul.The trade, by Amherst Holdings of Austin, Texas, was particularly galling to the big banks because it turned what they believed was a sure-fire profit into a loss.The burned banks include J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC and Bank of America Corp. Some banks have reached out to two industry trade groups about Amherst’s actions, and the groups are reviewing the transaction, according to people familiar with their thinking. “It’s all-out warfare” between the banks and Amherst, said a senior banker at one firm that lost money.At issue is a move by Amherst to boost the price of bonds to avoid paying out on credit-default swaps it had sold. Banks are questioning whether Amherst set them up by selling credit-default swaps and then rendering them worthless.Amherst says it didn’t do anything improper, but took advantage of an opportunity when it emerged. A lawyer reviewed and blessed the strategy for the firm, according to people familiar with the matter.Privately held Amherst says it acted in good faith trying to limit losses for clients, who had sold credit-default swaps on the securities. “We wouldn’t jeopardize our business and reputation by entering into an opportunistic trade knowing what the outcome would be,” said Amherst’s chief executive, Sean Dobson.The dispute echoes battles over the largely unregulated credit-default-swap market during last year’s financial turmoil. Companies including Morgan Stanley accused investors of using the insurance-like contracts to hurt the value of their shares, creating a panic among other investors and the firms’ clients.In 2007, a group of hedge funds led by Paulson & Co. suspected Bear Stearns of plotting to boost the value of subprime-mortgage securities. At the time, Bear (which was later bought by J.P. Morgan) denied planning to engage in such transactions.So far the latest dust-up has been all words, in part, bankers say, because they are wary of attracting more regulatory scrutiny at a time when lawmakers are planning major reforms in the largely unregulated derivatives markets, long lucrative for banks. While the banks’ combined losses from the trade were in the tens of millions of dollars — modest by recent standards — they are the buzz of Wall Street as firms try to prevent a repeat of the episode.The trade involved credit-default swaps and securities backed by subprime mortgages. The original securities had been sold by Lehman Brothers and were backed by $335 million of subprime mortgages mostly on homes in California made at the housing bubble’s peak in 2005, according to the prospectus.Following a wave of refinancing and defaults, only $29 million of the loans were left outstanding by March 2009, half of which were delinquent or in default, according to a performance report by Moody’s Investors Service.Believing the securities would become worthless, traders at J.P. Morgan bought credit-default swaps over the past year from Amherst, according to people familiar with the matter. Credit-default swaps act like insurance, paying off the buyer if securities are hit by losses. Other banks including RBS Securities, which is the U.S. investment-banking arm of Royal Bank of Scotland, and BofA also bought swaps on the securities from different trading partners.The banks had to pay up for the protection, similar to a person buying insurance on a beach house just before a hurricane. They paid as much as 80 to 90 cents for every dollar of insurance, the going rate last fall according to dealer quotes, expecting to receive a dollar back when the securities became worthless over the coming months.Traders can buy credit-default swaps on securities they don’t own. At one point, at least $130 million of bets had been made on the performance of around $27 million in securities, according to a person familiar with the matter.In late April, traders at some banks were shocked to find out from monthly remittance reports that the bonds they had bet against had been paid off in full. Normally an investor can’t pay off loans like that but if the amount of outstanding loans falls to less than 10% of the original pool, the servicer — or company that collects mortgage payments from homeowners and forwards them to investors who own the securities — can buy them and make bondholders whole.That’s what happened in this case. In April, a servicer called Aurora Loan Services at the behest of Amherst purchased the remaining loans and paid off the bonds.Although Amherst won’t provide specifics and won’t comment on its arrangement with Aurora, it doesn’t deny that it took this approach. (Aurora says it is a subsidiary of Lehman Brothers Bank, but not part of the Lehman Brothers Holdings bankruptcy filing.)A spokeswoman for Aurora says these servicer provisions are customary and when rights are exercised it ensures that appropriate requirements are met.When the bonds got paid off, the swaps became worthless, meaning the banks effectively forfeited what they had paid for the insurance. J.P. Morgan lost millions, while RBS and BofA suffered minimal losses, said people familiar with the matter.On April 28 representatives of banks including J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS AG’s UBS Securities held a conference call to discuss the trade but didn’t come to any conclusion, according to people familiar with the matter.Amherst is the antithesis of the big Wall Street banks. With its Austin headquarters and around 100 employees, the 15-year-old firm has long been a player in the mortgage market, but is now one of the upstarts trying to take business from banks weakened by the credit crisis. The firms has hired bankers, mortgage traders and research analysts who had left banks such as Bear Stearns and UBS, while raising new capital to expand its trading activities.Since the mortgage securities were valued at just $3 million or so in the market, well below the $27 million they were redeemed for, traders believe Amherst entered into an uneconomic transaction to profit from its swap positions.Firms that suffered losses as well as some that didn’t have brought the trade to the attention of two financial industry groups, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, and the American Securitization Forum, which are considering their concerns, say people familiar with the trade groups’ thinking.Critics of these markets say such conflicts aren’t a surprise. In secretive, over-the-counter markets “there are hidden risks and fault lines that don’t show up until times of stress or when people are losing money,” says Martin Weiss of Weiss Research, an investment consultancy in Jupiter, Fla., not involved in the trade.Many credit-default swap contracts that were written on subprime mortgage securities over the past three years remain outstanding, and holders could lose out if more bonds are made whole. Deutsche Bank has sent a list, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, to its clients of more than two dozen other mortgage pools that could see similar moves.

GuestJune 12th, 2009 at 10:54 am

It happens periodically to some users, but this part of the site has always remained free. I assumed that those notices were only in reference to having access to the paid sections of the site?

MAJune 12th, 2009 at 11:27 am

G,It’s defensive posturing, followed by offensive playing. …as the deeper pockets can stay in the hand longer. It just seems to be the acceptable norm.I don’t know if you’ve had a chance to analyze or theorize (or are aware of) the outcomes from the new rules set for by the TMPG with regards to Shorting in the US T-world. More defensive posturing??? …while also forcing the hands of market participants to keep the velocity up on the collateralization side going.What’s the downside risk? Have you heard much or talked with old friends about this. (It just went into effect a month ago, and as of July 1, there will be new set daily time deadlines that have to be adhered to.)In theory, it always sounds good… but the street players always see the first downside / loopholes. I’m suspecting, in fighting shorts… they’ll cause industry/market shorts. (especially amongst the higher yielding stuff that tucked away in tax havens… (like those pre 1978 T’s that aren’t subjuct to the same tax laws))If you haven’t heard much about the recent fines for failed T’s or haven’t talked to any players about it… would you mind doing some fishing for me?Miss America

PeteCAJune 12th, 2009 at 12:06 pm

I find it interesting that California is now predicting a “meltdown” in less than 50 days (clearly as a result of not tackling real budget problems over the last 12-24 months). But in fact our dear state of CA is now so far behind the ballgame, that’s it’s almost impossible to see how they can ever catch up. We are already moving into the new period where option-ARM’s and variable rate mortgages are starting to spike up payments. This process will directly impact CA – California is right in the crosshairs for this problem (so much so … that I’m thinking of pulling money from a major bank based in this state). Even if the state legislators actually worked out a real balanced budget today, there is every reason to think they will face another crisis going into the following fiscal year.How long before the stock market (and credit markets) start to seriously price in the “demise of the California economy” ???PeteCA

MAJune 12th, 2009 at 12:07 pm

Hello G,I posted to you above… (and asked a question)Thank god for SIFMA, FIMA, and the TPMG! hahaha useless organizations!!!!!!!!Miss America

PeteCAJune 12th, 2009 at 12:12 pm

And to think … all this time I was worried about a gigantic earthquake pushing California into the ocean. But it turned out that the real threat – was huge numbers of Californians going out and buying houses that they couldn’t possibly afford.What can I say about the dearly beloved residents of my own state?I will only quote Shakespeare … “I have taken a viper to my breast” !!!PeteCA

PeteCAJune 12th, 2009 at 12:18 pm

It’s just an effort to boost the salaries they are paying to their own execs.I mean, you gotta’ understand the humiliation we’re talkin’ about.Getting a repo notice from your friendly local Lamborghini dealer …is just too much to bear.:-)PeteCA

AnonymousJune 12th, 2009 at 12:32 pm

This transaction seems to be kind of a duh trade. I would have expected the “sharpies” at JP, Goldman, et al to be the ones selling the credit default swaps to small banks, grandmothers, and anyone else who they think would be dumb enough to take the other side. I can just see the fraternity brothers at the investment banks high fiving themselves when they bought the CDS’s. Amherst got the best of them fair and square. Go away JP and Goldman and learn your lesson.

GuestJune 12th, 2009 at 12:35 pm

need to trash dollar and treasury market for SP500 to go above $1000. Fed/Ben needs to come in with more liquidity!! equity market rally to sun!! eiya!!!

GuestJune 12th, 2009 at 12:39 pm

Ben with his PPT team will show up with newly printed dollar to push equity higher, eiya, equity market rally to sun!!!

GirafJune 12th, 2009 at 1:03 pm

I’m not on top of it. I remember reading about new rules and fines for fail on repos. I’ll sniff around and get back to you if I learn anything.

GuestJune 12th, 2009 at 3:48 pm

Looks the PR war has begun. Now the Administration wants to pretend to be tough on the Fed.EXCLUSIVE: Obama Takes on the Federal Reserve – Thursday, 11 June 2009Obama is about to take on the private banking system known as the “US Federal Reserve” that since its dubious creation in 1913 has had complete control over the printing of all US money in what many detractors have long stated was in great violation of the American Constitution.Almost unknown to the American people, the Federal Reserve Bank is comprised of 12 branches that are private corporations whose ownership is shrouded in the veil of secrecy and is the largest holder of United States debt said to be in excess of over $4 Trillion.Fueling Obama’s growing anger over the Federal Reserve Bank, the reports continue, has been their arrogant refusal to reply to the many questions being asked of them by the United States Congress over what has happened to over $8 Trillion of US taxpayer money, and which caused US Lawmakers to take the unprecedented step of issuing a subpoena yesterday to force the Federal Reserve to turn over internal documents related to Bank of America’s acquisition of Merrill Lynch.The Federal Reserve Bank, in a desperate bid to hold on to its power over the Untied States, has hired one of Washington D.C.’s top lobbyists, Linda Robertson, who curiously, headed the Washington lobbying office of Enron Corporation which became one of the largest corporate bankruptcies in US history after they cheated investors out of a staggering $11 billion.More ominously though, with Obama’s plan to take on the Federal Reserve Bank he becomes only the second US President to attempt to break this insidious creatures stranglehold over the United States after President John F. Kennedy, on June 4, 1963, signed Executive Order No. 11110 to strip the Federal Reserve Bank of its power to loan money to the government at interest.On that day President John F. Kennedy signed Executive Order No. 11110 that returned to the US government the power to issue currency, without going through the Federal Reserve. Kennedy’s order gave the Treasury the power “to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars [photo 3rd on left] in the Treasury.” This meant that for every ounce of silver in the US Treasury’s vault, the government could introduce new money into circulation. In all, Kennedy brought nearly $4.3 billion in US notes into circulation.Five short months later, President Kennedy was assassinated, and upon assuming office, newly sworn in President Lyndon Johnson recalled all of the US notes Kennedy had put into circulation and making President Ronald Reagan the next to challenge the power of the Federal Reserve, but which abruptly ended with his near assassination on March 30, 1981 by the hand of the son of former CIA Director, and then Vice President, George Bush’s closest friend and oil business backer John Hinckley Sr.President Reagan had pitted himself against the Federal Reserve over their refusal to lower the crushing interests rates they had imposed upon the American people during the US recession of 1980-1982 which was their greatest since the Great Depression, but after his near death quietly signed into law on September 13, 1982, H.R.6128 which became Public Law No: 97-258 that was written on the behalf of the Federal Reserve by little known US Congressman Peter Wallace Rodino Jr., with no co-sponsors, and made it illegal for any future American President to print money for the American people.But, according to Russian legal experts, even though Public Law No: 97-258 does appear on its surface to constrain President Obama; President Kennedy’s Executive Order No. 11110 has never been repealed by any American President making a showdown “inevitable” between Obama and the Federal Reserve before the US Supreme Court, and which Obama has recently nominated US Federal Judge Sonia Sotomayor to America’s highest court where she will become the 6th Roman Catholic Justice and giving the Vatican near total control of US monetary policy.And, in this epic battle between the Vatican backed Obama and the Rothschild backed Federal Reserve, we can plainly see that the 1849 secret agreements between these two monstrous powers that have enslaved the West is nearing its catastrophic end, and with no clear winner to be seen but an entire World being destroyed in its titanic aftermath.In what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considered a “threat”, the US stated to Israel this week that “We are going to change the world. Please, don’t interfere.”, the American people have not even been told.This cannot be said of Putin, however, who immediately upon learning of Obama’s “battle” with the Federal Reserve joined China and Brazil and ordered Russia’s Central Bank to begin divesting itself of US Federal Reserve holdings and replace them with International Monetary Fund bonds as the United States is about to be crushed with what London’s Fleet Street News is calling “The Triple Crown of Financial Catastrophes”.The US Media has continued to be silent on this and numerous other issues.

GuestJune 12th, 2009 at 3:58 pm

“the errors God delivered us to SO HE COULD SHOW US WHAT MERCY IS…SO HE COULD SHOW US HIS MERCY.”Ihis statement is not correct in my opinion. Over the years people have changed the correct understandig. The difficulties and chellenges that God delivered us are to test us(although God is all merciful but God is also just)so he could part rightiuos from the sinners and people will be held accountable for their actions and there will be reward and punishment. To morbids point we are all responsible for our own actions in the given world so if you are doing your part to better it you dont need to worry about its existence or extinction.

ThatsTheFactJackJune 12th, 2009 at 3:58 pm

Meanwhile, Robert Wagner is still peddling reverse mortgages to the elderly on television ads.It would seem that these types of products and advertising would by now be regulated out of existence.So here is a current example, of Wall Street (or Wells Fargo to be more precise) not taking any responsibility for what it does, while after the fact remarking to its (perhaps desperate) target market that people are responsible for their own actions.With all due respect Giraf – this is, at minimum, pathetic.

GuestJune 12th, 2009 at 4:08 pm

The star is 600 Light years away meaning its at a distance that light takes 600 years to cover. So lets do some mathspeed of light = 186000 miles/seconddistance light travels in one year = aprox 6 trillion miles600 light years = 3600 trillion miles from earth

GuestJune 12th, 2009 at 4:16 pm

there is no mother or father to god. God is a entity of its own. God dont begets nor is he begotten. Everthuthing else comes from the ancient myths and roman gods.

SoftwarengineerJune 12th, 2009 at 4:24 pm

AND HOW MANY OF THE BIDDERS WERE THE FEDS THEMSELVES?The treasuries unsold is my estimate. How did the fed buy its own debt? Easy, it used its revenue. What revenue? The IRS revenue was down 44% for 2008. So, it buys debt with the Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid revenue then.I imagine that’s how much of the health care reform debt will be funded. Rob Medicaid Peter to pay Health Reform Paul.In the end we have no Medicare/Medicaid or Social Security?

BobJune 12th, 2009 at 5:04 pm

Guest, come on!>>I am assuming they are paying back from profits.<It has been a whole host of everything BUT profits – accounting games, Congress Games (mark to market accounting changes), coversion of debt to equity (Citigroup looks so good now with over 23B shares), pay outs from AIG to GS of over $10B of taxpayer monies that will never be paid back, etc!Bigger issue is that with what is going to hit most of them, in the future, from defaults in morts and credit cards they will be asking for more help down the line!

GuestJune 12th, 2009 at 7:00 pm

John Ryskamp was banned from posting by Dr. Roubini. Mr. Ben Chana has been seen, but lately times his Jeremiaiads to coincide with acute crises in the Middle East. Yet in a world that’s gone insane, who among us will call them mad?

PeteCAJune 12th, 2009 at 8:42 pm

Losses On Interest Rate Swaps to Increase?!!Jim Willie posted an article today pointing out the growing potential for losses in interest rate swaps. The link is here:Bond Market Volatility to Cause Bank Losses?For those who are wondering about the subject. A lot of the financial derivatives being held by major Wall Street banks are in the form of interest rate swaps. The values of thse deals are tied to a pair of interest rates, and the banks make money if the interest rates change in a predictable way.So it follows that if US interest rates start behaving in a volatile and unexpected way – someone is going to take large losses on their derivatives holdings.I mention all of this … because I penned exactly the same idea in a private note to Brian (on this blog) a few months ago. While the world is used to volatility in stocks, major up’s and down’s in interest rates are not common. It reflects a growing struggle between the global market forces that are trying to cause US interest rates to go higher, and the deliberate strategy of the Fed (and its proxies) to maintain stable low rates for Government debt. As this struggle intensifies, bond market volatility will go up and significant losses are likely to happen in interest rate swaps. Meaning … more big losses at some Wall St banks.PeteCA

Guest troutJune 12th, 2009 at 9:08 pm

l,so can we conclude from ‘nature hates a fraud’ and ‘cheaters rule’that man’s rulers, cheaters, reciprocally hate nature?but they are of and a part of nature so do they then hatethemselves but have the good sense to spare themselves andtake it out on others. ?is this dynamic going to figure into the next bubble, here we go?

kilgoresJune 12th, 2009 at 10:21 pm

I like Stiglitz. He always seems like a pretty straight shooter to me. Thanks for the link, Mark.SWK

London BankerJune 12th, 2009 at 10:31 pm

It’s worth noting that Britain lost its superpower status and reserve currency dominance with Britain “waived the rules”.

Brett in ManhattanJune 13th, 2009 at 1:19 am

Yeah, he’s so anti-fed that he named the head of the NY Fed as Secretary of the Treasury.

GuestJune 13th, 2009 at 1:22 am

If the Fed’s books, which don’t exist, were ever opened to public scrutiny, which they won’t be, I’d bet the farm that the whole $11 trillion enchilada went primarily to Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan Chase (Rockefeller/Rothschild). Follow the money, the power and the glory.In short, World, meet your masters.Didn’t many analysts predict JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs would emerge from the bank collapse as the big winners—becoming megagiants?If you own the Federal Reserve the way Goldman owns the Fed, you can design your own confidence tricks: print the cash, dole out the credit, collapse the system, gain the confidence of the toadies you wish to defraud, ie the Ken Lewises, foist off your mistakes such as ol’ Merrill Lynch, then move in and buy up the assets on the cheap—J.P. Morgan Buys Bear in Fire Sale; WaMu Is Seized, Sold Off to J.P. …Didn’t former Bear Stearns Chief Executive Alan Schwartz join European investment bank Rothschild after deciding not to take a role at JP Morgan Chase?Wasn’t Schwartz’s long-time associate, Richard Metrick, who formerly was a Bear senior managing director, also taken on at Rothschild?Didn’t Schwartz skyrocket to Wall Street fame advising on large M&A deals, such as Disney’s 1996 acquisition of Capital Cities/ABC Inc for $19 billion?Aren’t they all just one happy family?And on that note, during this week’s command performance by Ben Bernanke playing to a full U.S. House in his greatest role as bank swindler par excellence—also featuring Merrill’s own John A. Thain of rug fame and alumnus of Goldman Sachs and the New York Stock Exchange—we dedicate this ode to Kenneth D. Lewis of Bank of America in his new role as scapegoat:GOLDMAN GOT THE GOLDMINE; I GOT THE SHAFT (originally SHE GOT THE GOLDMINE; I GOT THE SHAFT). Sing along and be creative!(T. DuBois)Jerry Reed – 1982Well, I guess it was back in sixty-threeWhen eatin’ my cookin’ got the better of meSo I asked this little girl I was goin’ withTo be my wifeWell, she said she wouldSo I said, “I do”But I’d-a said “I wouldn’t” if I’d-a just knewHow sayin’ “I do” was gonna screw up all my o’ my lifeWell, the first few years weren’t all that badI’ll never forget the good times we had’Cause I’m reminded every monthWhen I send her the child supportWell, it wasn’t too long till the lust was goneAnd I’ll admit I wasn’t too surprisedThe day I come home and found my suitcaseSittin’ out on the porchWell, I tried to get in, she’d changed the lockThen I found this note stuck on the mailboxIt said, “Goodbye, turkey…….My Attorney will be in touch”So I decided right then and thereI was gonna do what’s right,Give her her fair share, but, brother,I didn’t assay it was gonna be that muchShe got the goldmine (She got the goldmine)I got the shaft (I got the shaft)They split it right down the middleAnd then they gave her the better halfWell it all sounds sort o’ funnyBut it hurts too much to laughShe got the goldmineAnd I got the shaftNow listen, you ain’t heard nothin’ yetWhy, they gave her the colour television setThen they gave her the houseThe kids and both o’ the carsSee, well then they start talkin’ ’bout child supportAlimony and the cost o’ the CourtIt didn’t take me long to figure outHow fond of attorneys I wasI’m tellin’ ya they have made a mistake’Cause it adds up to more than this cowboy makesBesides, everything I ever had worth takin’They’ve already took!While she’s livin’ like a queen on alimonyI’m workin’ two shifts,Eatin’ baloney, askin’ myself”Why didn’t you just learn to cook?”They give her the goldmine (She got the goldmine)They give me the shaft (I got the shaft)They said they’re splittin it all down the middle,But she got the better halfBut it all sounds mighty funnyBut it hurts too much to laughShe got the goldmineI got the shaft(Guitar Solo)Well, she got the goldmine (She got the goldmine)I got the shaft (I got the shaft)They split it all down the middleAnd then they give her the better halfWell I guess it all sounds funny (Ha-ha-ha-ha)Just hurts too much to laughShe got the goldmineI got the shaftHuh-hah, they ain’t kiddin’I got the shaftBut I don’t have to worryAbout totin’ a billfold no moreHa-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha,I let my wife tote itI’m gonna be carryin’ food stampsYou get it, Judge?Ha-ha, that’s not funny, huh?Contempt of Court?What d’ya mean?Listen, Judge…..I was just kiddin’…..I mean……..

GuestJune 13th, 2009 at 2:50 am

Boy Hit by Meteorite”When it hit me it knocked me flying and then was still going fast enough to bury itself into the road,” Gerrit Blank said in a newspaper account. Astronomers have analyzed the object and conclude it was indeed a natural object from space, The Telegraph reportshttp://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20090612/sc_space/boyhitbymeteorite

MarkJune 13th, 2009 at 4:16 am

Do people demand a really just system? Well, we’ll arrange it so that they’ll be satisfied with one that’s a little less unjust … They want a revolution, and we’ll give them reforms — lots of reforms; we’ll drown them in reforms. Or rather, we’ll drown them in promises of reforms, because we’ll never give them real ones either!! – DARIO FO, Accidental Death of an AnarchistIt’s always played this way, let the big boys scam everyone until the masses complain, then pretend like you’re out to “FIX” things. The “fixing” will be to reshuffle the deck such that people no longer are able to follow the track; this allows the new game to start while the masses believe that things have been cleaned up: rinse and repeat…TPTB don’t actually contribute, this is the only way that they can stay on top without contributing- BS-ing everyone into believing that they have to be led!Mark

MarkJune 13th, 2009 at 4:25 am

Pete,If there’s a loser then that means there’s a winner. Who is winning?Is the government, initially trying to save Wall Street, now in the position of being pitted against it (for its own existence)? Any loser here means that ALL lose, and, clearly, someone IS going to lose.Mark

MarkJune 13th, 2009 at 4:36 am

Excellent Op-Ed in the NYT.The Economy Is Still at the BrinkSome excerpts:

Six months ago, nobody believed that our banking system was well designed, functioning smoothly or properly regulated — so why then are we so desperately anxious to restore that model as the status quo? Nearly every new program emanating these days from the Treasury Department — the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, the Public Private Investment Program, the “stress tests” of major banks — appears to have been designed to either paper over or to prop up a system that has clearly failed.Instead of hauling out the new drywall to cover up the existing studs, let’s seriously consider ripping down the entire structure, dynamiting the foundation and building a new system that rewards taking prudent risks, allocates capital where it is needed, allows all investors to get accurate and timely financial information and increases value to shareholders and creditors.[...]Why is so much effort being put into propping up those at the top of the economic pyramid — the money-center banks, the insurance companies, the hedge funds and so forth — when during a period of deflation like the one we are in, any recovery will come only by restoring the confidence of the people down at the bottom of the pyramid?Confidence will return only when jobs can be found and mortgage payments are made. Even if Mr. Obama’s claim is true that his $780 billion stimulus package “saved or created” some 150,000 jobs, we seem a long way away from the point where those struggling to get by will feel like spending again. What happens when people buy a car once every 10 years instead of once every two or three, especially now that we taxpayers own such a big percentage of the American auto industry?Instead of promising the imminent return of good times, why isn’t Mr. Obama talking more about the importance of living within our means and not spending money we don’t have on things we don’t need? We used to be a frugal nation. The president should be talking about kicking our addictions to easy credit, to quick fixes and to a culture of more is better (and Congress’s new credit-card legislation, while perhaps eliminating some of the worst aspects of that industry, certainly didn’t send the right message about personal finance).Gas-guzzling S.U.V.’s, cigarette boats, no-income mortgages and private jets should be relegated to the junk heaps of history, or better yet, put in a museum dedicated to never forgetting the greed and avarice that led us so far astray.Why is the morphine drip still in the veins of the financial system? These trillions in profligate federal spending are intended to make us feel better again even though feeling pain, and dealing with it responsibly, would be healthier in the long run. It is time to stop rescuing the banks that got us into this mess. If that means more bank failures on a grander scale or the dismemberment of Citigroup, so be it. Depositors will be protected — up to $250,000 per account — but shareholders, creditors and, sadly, many employees will, for the long-term health of the system, need to feel the market’s wrath.Mark

PeterJBJune 13th, 2009 at 5:11 am

Stiglitz:”The economic crisis,created largely by America’s behavior, has done more damage to these fundamental values than any totalitarian regime ever could have. Perhaps it is true that the world is heading toward the end of history, but it is now sailing against the wind, on a course we set ourselves.”http://www.fullermoney.com/content/2009-06-12/VanityFair_Stiglitz_WallStreetsToxicMessageJul09.pdfHo hum

MorbidJune 13th, 2009 at 6:40 am

A BLESSING In Disguise?Since I believe the population on the planet should be no larger than 0.5 billion for sustainability to say nothing about a sustainable social fabric – maybe all this was meant to be. We learn from our experiments – some are just more troubling than others.

MarkJune 13th, 2009 at 7:52 am

Forest, trees… Roubini is so deep among the trees that he doesn’t see the forest. Fundamentally his, and nearly everyone else’s, failure can be pinned on his inability to understand that growth is dead: as long as he continues to talk as though sustained economic growth is possible he’s not seeing the forest. Their life-long programming has been based on understanding systems that rely on growth in order to operate. And, whether they wish to admit it or not, NO growth essentially means that their systems are dead, and without those systems so too is their livelihoods.The rut is much deeper than it was during the GD. Rather, the weight that we’re carrying into the rut is far greater. The infrastructure that we’ve built has become the albatross around our necks: we’re dependent upon it, yet it’s maintenance has become too great; we continue to clutch on to it without seeing that it’s an anchor, not the preserver that we think it is.Mark

The Black SheepJune 13th, 2009 at 8:19 am

Never ocurred to you that the Jews managed to monopolize the status of genocide victims?

MichelleJune 13th, 2009 at 8:41 am

As it turned out, it was quite a small auction, only $549 million CDS. Thought it would be in the billions, but the debt for equity swap may have had a larger netting effect than I expected. So much for getting a good pull-back. Oh well, there are more coming up soon on the calendar.

HubbsJune 13th, 2009 at 9:02 am

Possibly because they managed to prosper, even under extreme duress. Lots of cultures have been subject to genocide over the centuries…Tutsis, Armenians, American Indians, but these are all but forgotten because they have not emerged to worldwide political/social/economic prominence. Disclaimer: I am WASP.Global warming? It is undisputed that the earth has regularly undergone climate changes, sometimes quite dramatic, well before the first drop of oil was ever refined. CO2 levels rising in the atmosphere? Is that because we are burning fossil fuels…or is it because of the cyclical sunspot activity responsible for cycles of global warming, which in of itself, will cause the vast reservoir of oceans to release CO2. As far as I can tell, we still haven’t sorted out cause and effect.Human population control, that is a real hot potato. Again, it is seen in so many ways and so many levels in nature. Animals which are introduced into a fertile environment exploit that niche…until peak population determined by other natural forces…predators, resources.Humans in the western world have similarly lived in a climatic, nutrient, natural resource sweet spot,and we have been able to exploit this niche to the max with technical advances in fields of energy, farming,transportation, and medicine. At some point this only goes so far.Against this background, maybe we should rethink our economic strategy.

Little SaverJune 13th, 2009 at 9:06 am

I’d rather say they don’t understand nature, especially not their own nature. No hate. Rather ignorance. This will figure into the next bubble, here we go.

blind barnacleJune 13th, 2009 at 9:42 am

March 13, 2006″Universal Time”pjb….”Our invented time scale of Earth at present is a working approximation but still a mean and therefore an approximation; a scale that more or less fits our environment alone and that impacts only our relationships within our domain, and it is not universal time. Used incorrectly, it blinds us.”….http://verbewarp.blogspot.com/2006/03/universal-time.html.this is the thing. mankind is being driven to his own ruin byhis tolerance for ignorance concerning time. we have allowedtime to be commodified and dictated by those who have no understandingwhatsoever and everything in culture is based on this ignorance and conformityto it.so instead of creatures/vessels/men of insight, we are blind.keywords: time. perspective. eternity. universal time.and the universe never ceases to mock us concerning this ignorance.we are very funny!have a wonderful afternoon!

blind barnacleJune 13th, 2009 at 9:55 am

ps,parochial time is a prison, mostly has been but doesnot have to be. this is the the first step. imho.just a hunch…peas.

MorbidJune 13th, 2009 at 10:08 am

I don’t know you, but I know your kind – and you are hereby requested to get out of the way of the lovers of humanity who are willing to do the hard work of fixing our errors – the errors God delivered us to SO HE COULD SHOW US WHAT MERCY IS…SO HE COULD SHOW US HIS MERCY.

Do you mean ERRORs as seen in the carnage of the history on this planet? Is the following an example of a Merciful Mother of God? Yeah, a sea of grace alright, surrounded by a seething lake of fire.We Didn’t Start The FireYou are only working with a half a deck – your kind fill the planet – they are called humans.

MorbidJune 13th, 2009 at 10:25 am

Hubbs,Well said. I would only add that a virus is also a lifeform -all it is trying to do is find a niche and prosper. It’s that Merciful Mother of God approach to creation – Her creatio continua. As humans of course, we don’t much like pandemics but what can we do – but try to cope with all these ERRORS!

MarkJune 13th, 2009 at 10:27 am

I have a feeling that this isn’t what the poster had in mind…Regarding “global warming,” (not sure why it popped up under this post) yes, it HAS occurred before, before humans pumped a single drop of oil. If you take sequestered CO2 and you release it you are INCREASING the amount that’s in the (above ground) environment. People can argue the point about whether this does or doesn’t _cause_ something, but one thing is clear: there’s a saturation point at which CO2 is NOT conducive to human life; so, intentionally increasing something that is NOT healthy is not exactly a way to ensure the propagation of our species.As far as population control goes, generally it’s something externally imposed. I don’t see it being any other way for humans: perhaps the statement that “it’s in god’s hands” is the way out from making tough decisions.But yes, rethinking our economic strategy is essential. I’d opine that the entire concept should be tossed: try applying this concept to any other population of species and it starts to look pretty as silly/unnatural as it is.Mark

kilgoresJune 13th, 2009 at 10:28 am

@ The Black Sheep:Setting aside for the moment your implicitly derogatory reference to “the Jews” that betrays a preposterous assumption that individuals of the Jewish faith can be lumped into a discrete Leviathan-like block acting in unison, I would suggest that the crimes of genocide entailed in the Nazi era have a more pronounced and more ubiquitous presence in the minds of members of the general public than do crimes of genocide in Cambodia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Rwanda, Somalia and elsewhere because they arose in the context of a world war in which the United States and its allies were completely absorbed and in which they had a direct stake. By contrast, the atrocities undertaken, say, by the regime of Pol Pot were not ever-present in the minds of most Americans simply because the average citizen in the United States was far removed from being directly affected by those atrocities. Western developed countries are largely insulated from the terrible troubles suffered daily by billions of people in other parts of the world, and but for several paragraphs in a newspaper or a one-minute summary on the evening news, wouldn’t have any idea of what was going on at all.I note, further, that at the recent ceremony in which President Obama laid flowers at Buchenwald, Holocaust survivor and Nobel Laureate Elie Wiesel expressly stated that despite the repeated mantra that the world should never forget the crimes against humanity perpetrated in World War II, genocide has continued since throughout the world in places as diverse as Cambodia, Rwanda, and so forth. Your charge that anyone is trying “to monopolize the status of genocide victims” is utterly baseless in fact. As your motivation for making such an absurd claim is apparent by your own choice of words to any fair-minded person with a brain, I need not comment further in that regard.SWK

MarkJune 13th, 2009 at 10:37 am

A quest for resources (pipeline), same as has always been the case. Israel has only helped to provide cover.NOTE: I’m anti-statism, in which case I have no reason to argue for ANY state.Mark

MorbidJune 13th, 2009 at 10:40 am

Correction, it seems this star is only 427 light years away. Hard to get accurate information anymore.

MarkJune 13th, 2009 at 11:02 am

Yeah, I was wondering how big it was (figured that you’d provide the numbers- thank you :-) ). Gold didn’t drop as much as I was hoping for, which was a sign that it couldn’t have been that big.Mark

What You Don't Know Can't Hurt ThemJune 13th, 2009 at 11:07 am

So many questions…Answered!Are there really wealthy and powerful Elite Socialist forces at work behind the scenes in government and banking? Is Communism being ushered into America? Is it Fascism being enthroned? Is it larger than just America? Is it Global “New World Order” government the elites seek? Are the Jewish wealthy controlling the banks and media, and do they reign supreme, or are Jews being scapegoated to prevent the public looking at the Anglo-Saxon Pilgrims? How can a person know? Can a person know for sure? What do these elites we call The Powers That Be, really believe and really support? Who are they? How are they connected? How much is being hidden from us? We know there is very great power “at the top of humanity’s economic pyramid”, and we know it is the power to influence things to their benefit that the money-giants want – but through just which strategy do they intend to keep and escalate their power to influence the globe’s countries, economies, media, education, leadership, policies, trajectories?All the confusing “point, counterpoint” talk about who at the top believes what – is it adding to your frustration? Would you like to read an excellent primer to help you get beyond all the competing propaganda including the very biggest; the propaganda by omission of relevant facts…a page to get you beyond all the mis-information and dis-information and corporate-owned-media spin, and to help you sort the “isms and ologies” and the players and their aides? Would you like an intensively sourced, all-on-one-page journey through little-known historical facts that will enable you to understand what’s going on – by looking at what’s gone on before that you aren’t yet aware of? Are you confused, and sick to death of watching events play out that you can’t make sense of, and sick also of being less and less clear about who, if anybody, is telling you the un-spun full truth?Then this is for you:a href=”http://www.isgp.eu/organisations/Pilgrims_Society02.htm”>Read HereYes. It’s one very long page of reading, but would you rather spend a lifetime still not knowing when you’re being duped, thereby possibly allowing your enemy to have and maintain an outpost in your own head?I offer here only a snippet, one that dives you into the middle of the sordid history of our interconnected moneylenders of all stripes, the oppositions and the collusions, the industrialists, politicians and governments, intelligence agencies, mass media, and wars. As strongly as I can, I encourage everyone to read the whole page. It is a tremendous education – and one hell of an eye-opening account of banker political gangsterism in the past and its ongoing results. I encourage all to note how well-sourced, verified, and documented this information is, and how the author plainly labels anything that is only speculation on his part or speculation coming from others, for what it is: you will not be confused as to what is verified and what isn’t. The snippet starts here:“FDR had been elected president of the United States in 1933 when the Great Depression was at its worst. About 25 percent of the population was out of work with millions living on the streets. Roosevelt immediately introduced his far reaching New Deal program, which included the crippling of stock speculation, the setting up watch dog agencies for banks, and the introduction of large scale construction projects for the unemployed. The New Deal further established a national minimum wage, limited a regular workweek to 40 hours, abolished child labor, introduced social security, supported the homeless, and prevented employers from hindering unionization. To finance these projects Roosevelt had to take the United States off the gold standard.Needless to say, the big interests were horrified with this New Deal program. Almost immediately they began to make plans to get rid of Roosevelt; plans which were exposed in detail by General Smedley Butler before the 1934 McCormack-Dickstein Committee.Butler detailed how in July 1933 he had been approached by Gerald C. MacGuire, a Wall Street bond salesman with a position in the American Legion. MacGuire and his financiers had devised a whole scheme through which Butler would be able to make a speech to the American Legion in favor of the gold standard. The excuse MacGuire gave was that he and his associates didn’t want the veterans of World War I to receive the bonus they had been promised by Congress to be handed to them in devaluated currency at some point in the future. Butler knew that something was wrong here, but tried to play along for a while, leading to MacGuire giving him certain details of who were behind the scheme.It turned out that behind MacGuire were men as Grayson M. P. Murphy, head of the family’s brokerage firm at which MacGuire was employed and also director of the Guarantee Trust; Robert S. Clark, a wealthy banker whom Butler had known in the past; James H. Perkins, chairman of the Rockefeller’s National City Bank; men from the Morgan Bank; and John W. Davis, chair of Davis, Polk and Wardwell, chief attorney of J. P. Morgan & Co. and founding president of the Council on Foreign Relations. [116] And important for this article: Murphy’s son was a Pilgrim, Davis was president of the Pilgrims, the men heading the Morgan Bank were Pilgrims, and Perkins almost certainly was another Pilgrim.In the end Butler refused to make one or more speeches in favor of the gold standard, but by flooding a meeting with telegrams the bankers still managed to have the American Legion adopt a formal resolution in favor of returning to the gold standard. Roosevelt would not allow himself to be pressured by the legion however; the United States remained off the gold standard.During late 1933 and and early 1934 Butler didn’t hear anything from MacGuire, who until then had regularly contacted him. In the spring and summer of 1934 Butler did receive two cards from MacGuire: one from France; the other from Berlin, making Butler wonder what MacGuire was up to this time. In August 1934 MacGuire approached Butler in person again, the reason being that “his group” still considered the general the only person who effectively could rally hundreds of thousandsof veterans behind him towards a common goal. The “Morgan group” had reluctantly agreed, even though they really preferred the less-popular Douglas MacArthur. During this latest conversation MacGuire explained to Butler what he had been doing in the past year. It turned out that by this time more was in the planning than just the return of the gold standard.According to MacGuire, after the American Legion’s gold standard resolution had been rejected by Roosevelt, his financial backers had sent him to Europe to study the veterans paramilitary organizations of France, Germany and Italy. MacGuire appeared to be quite fond of Mussolini’s Blackshirts and Hitler’s SA and SS, but stated that he instead had recommended to his backers that the model of the French far-right league the Croix de Feu be adopted for an American version of these paramilitary veterans’ forces. According to MacGuire, the press would announce the creation of this “superorganization” in two or three weeks. He further hinted that its founders would include some of the most important men in the United States and that former New York Governor and Democratic presidential candidate Al Smith – who had become an employee of the Du Pont family – would be among these founders.At that point Butler had already concluded that a lot of what MacGuire had told him was true, not the least because the many predictions MacGuire made had a tendency to come true. This latest prediction was no exception. Two weeks after his discussion with MacGuire, newspapers reported on the founding of the American Liberty League.Investigative author Jules Archer, who documented the whole affair in great detail, wrote: “Butler’s eyes widened when he read that the treasurer of the American Liberty League was none other than MacGuire’s own boss, Grayson M.-P. Murphy, and one of its financiers was Robert S. Clark. Heading and directing the organization were Du Pont and J.P. Morgan and Company men.Morgan attorney John W. Davis was a member of the National Executive Committee-the same Davis that Clark had identified as author of the gold-standard speech MacGuire had tried to get Butler to make to the American Legion convention in Chicago.”Heavy contributors to the American Liberty League included the Pitcairn family (Pittsburgh Plate Glass), Andrew W. Mellon Associates, Rockefeller Associates, E.F. Hutton Associates, William S. Knudsen (General Motors), and the Pew family (Sun Oil Associates). J. Howard Pew, longtime friend and supporter of Robert Welch, who later founded the John Birch Society, was a generous patron, along with other members of the Pew family, of extremist right-wing causes. Other directors of the league included Al Smith and John J. Raskob.”Two organizations affiliated with the league were openly Fascist and antilabor. One was the Sentinels of the Republic, financed chiefly by the Pitcairn family and J. Howard Pew. Its members labeled the New Deal “Jewish Communism” and insisted “the old line of Americans of $1,200.00 a year want a Hitler.”"The other was the Southern Committee to Uphold the Constitution, which the conservative Baltimore Sun described as “a hybrid organization financed by northern money, but playing on the Ku Klux Klan prejudices of the south.” Its sponsor, John H. Kirby, collaborated in anti-Semitic drives against the New Deal with the Reverend Gerald L. K. Smith, leader of the first Silver Shirt Squad of American storm troopers.”"The brood of anti-New Deal organizations spawned by the Liberty League,” the New York Post subsequently charged, “are in turn spawning fascism.”" [117]After reading about the founding of the American Liberty League, Butler decided to have someone come in and confirm his story. He contacted an old friend, Paul Comly French, an investigative journalist for the Philadelphia Record whose articles also appeared in the New York Post. After the blessing of Philadelphia Record city editor Tom O’Neil, French began his effort to confirm Butler’s story. Butler at some point introduced French to MacGuire, leading to a two hour discussion between the latter two without Butler being present.Butler and French were invited to testify to the McCormack-Dickstein Committee on November 20, 1934. Judging from French’s testimony, MacGuire had been more forthcoming to French than he had ever dared to be to Butler. French testified:”We need a fascist government in this country, he insisted, to save the nation from the Communists who want to tear it down and wreck all that we have built in America. The only men who have the patriotism to do it are the soldiers and Smedley Butler is the ideal leader. He could organize a million men overnight.”"During the conversation he told me he had been in Italy and Germany during the summer of 1934 and had made an intensive study of the background of the Nazi and Fascist movements and how the veterans had played a part in them. He said he had obtained enough information on the Fascist and Nazi movements and of the part played by the veterans, to properly set one up in this country…”He [MacGuire] had a very brilliant solution of the unemployment situation. He said that Roosevelt had muffed it terrifically, but that he had the plan. He had seen it in Europe. It was a plan that Hitler had used in putting all of the unemployed in labor camps or barracks-enforced labor. That would solve it overnight, and he said that when they got into power, that is what they would do; that that was the ideal plan.”He had another suggestion to register all persons all over the country, like they do in Europe. He said that would stop a lot of the Communist agitators who were running around the country.” [118]Butler and French were also supported by the testimony of James Van Zandt, head of the Veterans of Foreign Wars. After having been given information by MacGuire, Butler had warned Van Zandt that he too would probably be approached by the fascist plotters. At the hearing Van Zandt testified that this had indeed been the case, and that he had seen some of the data on fascist organizations MacGuire had taken back with him from Europe. Van Zandt further testified that not only he himself, Douglas MacArthur and Hanford MacNider had been approached (as Butler had stated), but also Theodore Roosevelt, Jr., a founder of the American Legion. MacArthur and Roosevelt would vehemently deny that they had been approached by any coup plotters, but this actually means very little. MacArthur would later become a close associate of the anti-communist cult leader Sun Myung Moon, while his cousin – another Moon associate – would become deeply involved in the darkest aspects of the fascist international.Theodore Roosevelt, Jr.’s family were also extreme right wing anti-communist crusaders who supported the post war Nazi networks and rose to top positions in the CIA. For more information about MacArthur and his cousin MacArthur II, read PEHI’s ‘Beyond the Dutroux Affair’ (now ISGP) article. For more information on the descendants of Theodore Roosevelt, read on.When questioning Gerald MacGuire in front of their committee, John McCormack and Samuel Dickstein found out he couldn’t present an alibi on numerous occasions. The committee additionally found evidence that MacGuire had written detailed reports on Mussolini’s Blackshirts, Hitler’s Brownshirts, the French Croix de Feu and a related fascist group from the Netherlands to Robert Clark and Clark’s attorney, Albert G. Christmas. But even though the initial hearings and investigation clearly showed their had been a fascist coup in the making in the United States, the committee would fail to subpoena the powerful bankers and industrialists mentioned during the hearings. In the weeks following the testimonies of Butler, French, Van Zandt and MacGuire, the committee asked to be renewed in order to continue the investigation. The House of Representatives decided to let the committee expire instead, shutting it down in January 1935. The whole affair would soon be forgotten. Many years later, during an interview with Jules Archer on September 17, 1971, John McCormack would summarize the view of the committee at the time:”There was no doubt that General Butler was telling the truth. We believed his testimony one hundred percent. He was a great, patriotic American in every respect.”"Millions were at stake when Clark and the others got the Legion to pass that resolution on the gold standard in 1933. When Roosevelt refused to be pressured by it, and went even further off the gold standard, those fellows got desperate and decided to look into European methods, with the idea of introducing them to America. They sent Macguire to Europe to study the Fascist organizations.”"The way I figure it, we did our job in the committee by exposing the plot, and then it was up to the Department of Justice to do their job-to take it from there. I have no knowledge why the Attorney General did not pursue this matter except that most likely it was deemed politically inadvisable.” [119]In line with some of the rumors in the days of the committee, McCormack stated in his biography that he suspected that President Roosevelt himself had supported the cover-up. A public prosecution of the nation’s most powerful men would have added tremendous burdens to Roosevelt’s already overcrowded schedule (not to mention the doom it may have spelled to the nation’s economy). The affair could also have split Roosevelt’s own party, as a number of leading Democrats were allied with the fascists. McCormack reasoned that it may have been enough for Roosevelt to thwart the plot and keep the suspects under surveillance…”

Guest ttttJune 13th, 2009 at 11:17 am

9/11 ‘special master’ appointed czar to oversee executive payBy Jerry MazzaOnline Journal Associate Editor.http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_4797.shtml…“Now let’s round out Mr. Feinberg’s conflict-resolution resume: “Before that assignment, he was appointed by federal district judges to help resolve several difficult product liability lawsuits. He played central roles in resolving cases involving victims of asbestos, Agent Orange and the Dalkon Shield, a birth control device that injured more than 200,000 women. He was also one of three arbitrators who determined the fair market value of the Zapruder film that captured the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, resolving a dispute between the heirs of Abraham Zapruder, who shot the footage, and the government, which acquired the 26-second film.” Hmmm, quite a span of interests there . . . and finally . . .“The announcement is the third attempt by Washington to respond to public outrage over high pay at companies receiving taxpayer assistance. On Feb. 4, the administration announced a proposal to set a $500,000 cap on cash compensation for the most senior executives at troubled companies getting ‘exceptional assistance,’ and restrictions on cashing in on stock incentives.” I suspect they could struggle along on that.Yet, given all the doubletalk, I can only say good luck, America. Luck with the Feinbergs, Geithners and Larry Summers’s of the world, supposedly guarding our Treasury, economy, and 9/11 victims’ families. And luck with Wall Street having at us, manipulating our money. In fact, once again we seem to be in troubled waters looking for that mythic bridge over them. As Billy Holiday would sing, “God bless the child that’s got his own.”

kilgoresJune 13th, 2009 at 11:21 am

The current military action by the United States in Afghanistan was in direct response to a coordinated terrorist attack on American soil in which thousands of innocent people were killed. The perpetrators of these attacks were welcomed as guests, protected, and allowed to train in Afghanistan by an intolerant theocratic government, and continued to fight actively against the United States from in and around Afghanistan, funded by the production of opium poppies and other black market sources harmful to western societies, and destabilizing Pakistan, a nuclear power. It is for this reason that the current military efforts to stabilize Afghanistan are being undertaken and supported not only by the United States, but by a broad coalition of nations throughout the world who view this as a just effort necessary to foster international peace.This is not to say that the United States and other western powers are not at fault for engaging in unfair and anti-democratic intervention in the affairs of other countries in the past. For instance, I personally find it deplorable that the United States undertook to overthrow democratically elected Mohammed Mossadegh in Iran in 1953, install Shah Reza Pahlavi, and train his secret police, the SAVAK, to terrorize the Iranian people. In my view, the United States was wrong in the 1980s to supply weapons of mass destruction to Saddam Hussein for use against the Iranians in the Iran-Iraq War, and was again wrong to invade Iraq in 2003 under the pretext of a threat of nuclear weapons development and deployment against the West. Nonetheless, two wrongs don’t make a right, as we say in America. I am far from convinced that the work of the international coalition in Afghanistan is hopeless or that it will prove ultimately ruinous; indeed, I believe it is necessary and worthwhile as being in the interests of international justice and stability.SWK

GirafJune 13th, 2009 at 11:21 am

But humans in the “western world” are not the ones responsible for the globe’s population explosion. If anything, traditional “western” societies are not reproducing themselves. If it weren’t for immigration, “western” societies would be experiencing population declines, U.K., western Europe, Canada, the U.S., Australia. The classic example of the situation is Japan. While not a “western” society, because of tight immigration policies their population is already in outright decline.

kilgoresJune 13th, 2009 at 11:22 am

The current military action by the United States in Afghanistan was in direct response to a coordinated terrorist attack on American soil in which thousands of innocent people were killed. The perpetrators of these attacks were welcomed as guests, protected, and allowed to train in Afghanistan by an intolerant theocratic government, and continued to fight actively against the United States from in and around Afghanistan, funded by the production of opium poppies and other black market sources harmful to western societies, and destabilizing Pakistan, a nuclear power. It is for this reason that the current military efforts to stabilize Afghanistan are being undertaken and supported not only by the United States, but by a broad coalition of nations throughout the world who view this as a just effort necessary to foster international peace.@ Hassan i Sahhah:This is not to say that the United States and other western powers are not at fault for engaging in unfair and anti-democratic intervention in the affairs of other countries in the past. For instance, I personally find it deplorable that the United States undertook to overthrow democratically elected Mohammed Mossadegh in Iran in 1953, install Shah Reza Pahlavi, and train his secret police, the SAVAK, to terrorize the Iranian people. In my view, the United States was wrong in the 1980s to supply weapons of mass destruction to Saddam Hussein for use against the Iranians in the Iran-Iraq War, and was again wrong to invade Iraq in 2003 under the pretext of a threat of nuclear weapons development and deployment against the West. Nonetheless, two wrongs don’t make a right, as we say in America. I am far from convinced that the work of the international coalition in Afghanistan is hopeless or that it will prove ultimately ruinous; indeed, I believe it is necessary and worthwhile as being in the interests of international justice and stability.SWK

kilgoresJune 13th, 2009 at 11:23 am

The RGE site has been acting a bit quirky for me today. Lost an earlier post, then this one wound up posting a little further down. Sorry for the undue repetition.SWK

kilgoresJune 13th, 2009 at 11:25 am

See identical post above. This was supposed to have followed a comment by Hassan i Sabbah.SWK

Guest stationJune 13th, 2009 at 12:03 pm

Deflation, not inflation, is the real enemyBy Mike WhitneyOnline Journal Contributing Writerhttp://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_4796.shtmlJun 12, 2009, 00:20….”Seductive interest rates, lax lending standards and nonstop public relations campaigns, persuaded millions of people that they could live beyond their means by simply filling out a credit application or fudging a few numbers on a mortgage loan. These are the real victims of Wall Street’s speculative bubble-scam. For many of them, the agony of losing their home, or their job, or filing for personal bankruptcy will be felt for years to come. At the same time, the experience will keep many of them from getting in over their heads again. The same phenomenon occurred during the Great Depression. The pain of losing everything shapes behavior for a lifetime, which is why the savings rate has spiked so dramatically in the last few months. There’s been a tectonic shift in attitudes towards consumption and there’s no going back to the pre-bubble era.If Harrison is right, our decades-long spending-spree is over and people will be looking for ways to live more modestly, pay-as-they-go and avoid red ink. This is good news for the economy’s long-term strength, but bad for short-term recovery. Deflation will persist even while savings grow and consumption comes more into line with personal income. The dollar will fall hard if Bernanke continues to load up on Treasuries, but with a few slight adjustments, he should be able to avoid a full-blown currency crisis. Thus, Zimbabwe-type hyperinflation is unlikely; the ongoing slowdown should keep inflation in check.”

AnybodyJune 13th, 2009 at 12:05 pm

If you could explain what would be a “victory” in Afghanistan, and what is supposed to be it’s contribution to the elimination of terrorism (at least anti-US terrorism) I’d be grateful.

kilgoresJune 13th, 2009 at 12:07 pm

Giraf:Past performance is no guaranty of future results, as they say. There has never been a coalition of states working in a coordinated fashion in Afghanistan with the goal of democratizing and stabilizing its regime to ensure its independence. Past “occupying forces” have been single states attempting to impose their rule on Afghanistan in competition with one another (like Germany and the Soviet Union did with Poland in the 1930s and 1940s).Moreover, historically, there have been many long-standing occupying forces in Afghanistan. The Achaemenid rule lasted 200 years. The Shahi and Sahi ruled what is now Afghanistan from the third century until the ninth century. The Mongols controlled Afghanistan for three hundred years.SWK

MarkJune 13th, 2009 at 12:11 pm

Well, you’ve got the official 9/11 story down pretty well.For information that provides more depth to the notion that this war was in fact spawned from the quest for oil:The U.S. War in AfghanistanandRichard W. Behan | From Afghanistan to Iraq: Connecting the Dots With OilIf you believe that it’s essential to stabilize Afghanistan (which, by western standards has NEVER been stable), then perhaps you might want to go over there and help out (rather than to send others’ children over there)?Mark

Levi-StraussJune 13th, 2009 at 1:04 pm

Perhaps the US should try democratizing their own regime before trying to impose the Hegelian ideal upon medieval tribes for whom Holy War is not over.

kilgoresJune 13th, 2009 at 1:05 pm

You’re sounding a little too self-righteous, Mark. That you and others feel compelled to embrace the fanciful notion that there some hidden agenda for our involvement in Afghanistan based on the acquisition and control of oil, despite the plain fact that the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan was a lawful defensive action in response to to the events of 9/11 (which you apparently dismiss as a mere ‘story’ sold to a gullible public by powerful economic and governmental forces that operate in the shadows), is patently unreasonable.As for sending the children of others to do the work required, we have a volunteer military in this country. Soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines have obliged themselves to carry on dangerous missions around the world, not only in direct defense of the United States, but in pursuit of broader U.S. interests. I don’t have to volunteer for military service myself to justify support for their efforts or the policies that put them in harm’s way. That’s a cheap shot, and you know it.SWK

kilgoresJune 13th, 2009 at 1:07 pm

I might add, parenthetically, that when you made your comment, you had no idea whether I had ever served in the military or not, or served in Afghanistan or not. One of these days, you might make that assumption to the wrong person.SWK

kilgoresJune 13th, 2009 at 1:09 pm

There is always room for improvement, I’ll grant you that point. Again, however, I stress that this is an international effort in which the United States is not alone by any stretch of the imagination.SWK

GuestJune 13th, 2009 at 1:14 pm

http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_4791.shtmlFear is eroding American rightsBy Paul Craig RobertsOnline Journal Contributing WriterJun 11, 2009, 00:21The power of irrational fear in the US is extraordinary. It ranks up there with the Israel Lobby, the military/security complex, and the financial gangsters. Indeed, fear might be the most powerful force in America.Americans are at ease with their country’s aggression against Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan, which has resulted in a million dead Muslim civilians and several million refugees, because the US government has filled Americans with fear of terrorists. “We have to kill them over there before they come over here.”Fearful of American citizens, the US government is building concentration camps apparently all over the country. According to news reports, a $385 million US government contract was given by the Bush/Cheney Regime to Cheney’s company, Halliburton, to build “detention centers” in the US. The corporate media never explained for whom the detention centers are intended.Most Americans dismiss such reports. “It can’t happen here.” However, in northwestern Florida, not far from Tallahassee, I have seen what might be one of these camps. There is a building inside a huge open area fenced with razor wire. There is no one there and no signs. The facility appears new and unused and does not look like an abandoned prisoner work camp.What is it for?Who spent all that money for what?There are Americans who are so terrified of their lives being taken by terrorists that they are hoping the US government will use nuclear weapons to destroy “the Muslim enemy.” The justifications concocted for the use of nuclear bombs against Japanese civilian populations have had their effect. There are millions of Americans who wish “their” government would kill everyone that “their” government has demonized.When I tell these people that they will die of old age without ever seeing a terrorist, they think I am insane. Don’t I know that terrorists are everywhere in America? That’s why we have airport security and homeland security. That’s why the government is justified in breaking the law to spy on citizens without warrants. That’s why the government is justified to torture people in violation of US law and the Geneva Conventions. If we don’t torture them, American cities will go up in mushroom clouds. Dick Cheney tells us this every week.Terrorists are everywhere. “They hate us for our freedom and democracy.” When I tell America’s alarmed citizens that thttp://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/257052#175604he US has as many stolen elections as any country and that our civil liberties have been eroded by “the war on terror,” they lump me into the terrorist category. They automatically conflate factual truth with anti-Americanism.”…etc…..comment. fear is also altering and diminishing the populations capacityto experience “time” in a natural way, a universal way, or even a global way.notice the collapse of trade due to fear and commensurate greed, fraud etc.the fear is state created and it is the thing that will destroy the veryones who implemented it as a tactic. that is the product of insane fear asopposed to respect.

kilgoresJune 13th, 2009 at 1:40 pm

The author of the article to which the first link leads is David Michael Smith, a Marxist, who clearly and predictably suggests that we reject the actions of the United States in Afghanistan as lawful and defensive in nature, and postulates instead a convoluted explanation for U.S. involvement in Afghanistan based on capitalists trying to dominate the third world. The second link takes us to an article written by Richard Behan, a former professor of natural resources policy at the University of North Arizona and the University of Montana, who is one of leftist academics who joined in questioning whether the World Trade Center towers really were destroyed by terrorists plowing jet airliners into them as determined by the report of the 9/11 Commission (since he doubts that 9/11 happened as the “official propaganda” would have us believe, naturally, he has to develop a complex hypothesis of his own that Iraq and Afghanistan were both ginned up to facilitate the acquisition and control of a natural resource, namely, oil.Anyone can make an argument, but not all arguments make sense. The explanations of the Afghanistan war that these two fellows would have us believe are highly suspect on their face. Sometimes the truth is right there staring you in the face, not hiding behind some vast industrial-governmental conspiracy.SWK

GuestJune 13th, 2009 at 2:05 pm

Bernie Sanders on “Brunch with Bernie” talked about the rise in gas prices yesterday with Thom Hartmann.The price of oil and gasoline is on the rise and Sanders, I-Vt., sees the power of Wall Street speculators, specifically Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, behind the price jump.He’s calling on federal regulators to investigate the rapid rise in commodity price and to “end that speculation,” including imposing strict speculation limits on Goldman and Morgan Stanley, increasing margin requirements and suspending trading.The rising oil costs are being passed on to the public through fuel prices.Essentially, what Bernie said, and I paraphrase:You know, Tom, when we were in school we learned that under market supply and demand when supply goes down, price goes up; and when supply goes up, price goes down.So recently we’ve heard that the supply of oil is at an all time high, and that demand is at an all time low. So what’s happened to the price? It’s gone up, the opposite of what you’d expect. Why? Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.Bernie compared Wall Street speculators the likes of Goldman and Morgan to greedy heroine addicts.But will Congress do something to limit the power of these speculators?Unfortunately, the government has been running interference for monopolies such as Goldman and MS that prohibit competition–for the powerful bankers that use their government credit cards to create and control markets.But, fortunately, the American government still serves at the pleasure of the people. When it gets to the point of conspicuous abuse of the public such as this, then the politicians who fear for their jobs not only fear the monopolies, they begin to fear the people.You get public pressure when you get massive abuse. And what could be greater abuse at the moment than the people losing their jobs and people worried about their jobs than these government-protected monopolies forcing up the prices of utilities and energy?

kilgoresJune 13th, 2009 at 2:08 pm

Victory in Afghanistan would come with the substantial achievement of the goals of the International Security Assistance Force (the international coalition helping to stabilize the country). These goals, in the main, consist of:1. Disrupting terrorist networks in the country and in Pakistan to the point that they are so degraded that they become manageable by the counterinsurgency and counterterrorism efforts of the Afghani security forces with minimal foreign assistance.2. Helping the Afghan government to become capable, accountable to civilians, stable, and effective and to develop to the point that it can maintain security to preserve this state of affairs through its own forces and otherwise function independently of more than limited international support.If the ISAF and its member states can achieve these goals, then terrorism based in and around Afghanistan and directed to the United States and other countries will become manageable and less of a threat, not only to Afghanistan, but to the United States and other countries throughout the world. Achieving these goals requires a long-term commitment and complex plans that include substantial infrastructure development and other means of enabling and enhancing Afghani governmental control over its own territory.SWK

GuestJune 13th, 2009 at 2:44 pm

The Secretary of State of the United States has visited Israel many times in her various official capacities and I noticed that on her most recent visit as in previous visits her first stop was at the Holocaust Memorial. Isn’t it time for a representative of the United States to begin with some other theme? Am I wrong or does this consistent theme after 65 years in an independent nation such as Israel bind other nations to a mandatory political homage, as vassals pledging fealty to their feudal obligations? Doesn’t Israel have anything else to say to the world; does it not have any other points of interest for the U.S. power brokers to visit? The U.S. has no choice to go elsewhere, to skip the monument. To do so would engage the reflexes of the Abe Foxmans around the world renting garments and tearing hair and crying, “Oh, my gosh, it’s happening again!”What is it with the people that they can’t stand discussion; that, always, they have to be better?Has Hillary ever visited Israel’s holocaust memorial in Gaza? Has Hillary ever paid homage to Rachel Corrie, an American peace activist deliberately run over by an Israeli bulldozer in 2003, protesting its use to destroy Palestinian houses in Rafah?Has anyone here ever heard Billy Bragg sing: “The Lonesome Death of Rachel Corrie”?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WME495PWWJE

GuestJune 13th, 2009 at 2:53 pm

All of these special interests are using Obama as their trump card but it turns out that the Obama card is so dog-eared and marked on the back that it’s hard to bluff anyone anymore. And Obama doesn’t even know it. He thinks he’s the ace whose golden oratory can solve everything, and all the while, everyone knows he’s just the joker.Goldman Sachs controls the Obama White House like it’s a puppet on a string…

SoftwarengineerJune 13th, 2009 at 2:53 pm

CALIFORNIA IS HORRIFYINGYet States like Wash St, with about 1/6th the population have about 1/2 the budget deficit of California.Why isn’t Wash St on the news with a crisis budget defict far worse than California’s?That state has a progressive governor and California doesn’t? Boeing and Microsoft will magically solve it without budget cuts and mass taxation; even though they’re butcher axing employees and their stock has horrifyingly plummetted YOY? Or about about this other lame brain guess: we can take it out of all the rich Seattle home owners’ hide [most are Progressive Democrats that asked for the budget increases in the first place] using their like million dollar Seattle shacks’ equity? Ohhhhh….I forgot about a third of these mortgages are upside down….LOL

MorbidJune 13th, 2009 at 3:45 pm

What you say is true up to a point – it is the Western world that has promoted the credit bubble – attracting like this all those who want to self-actualize; fair enough. It’s like coming up with cheap energy – it will only foster more population. So, the West is responsible for some of the population explosion – using money and foreign investments to enable further HOPIUM that the good life for all is near. And like this keep the Ponzi scheme going. It only works if the pyramid base gets larger and larger folks – and those at the top of the criminal media, banksters and politicians know it.China has had to implement a population constraining policy. And what did Hillary Clinton do but call it inhumane. Which is more inhumane – having children who cannot self-actualize or not having them at all?So, lets bid up commodities – that will help reduce populations and we all can make a ton of money off it besides. There are many ways to be a part of a Holocaust.

MorbidJune 13th, 2009 at 3:56 pm

Being retired – I sure hope this deflation business is the outcome. Otherwise we will be in the poor house in short order – along with the other 80 million baby boomers in line to retire in the next 20 years.

GuestJune 13th, 2009 at 4:00 pm

you are dreaming, inflation triumph deflation. obama and democrats’ massive spending requires tons of borrowing, printing, or taxation. and which one do you they will they do? BORROWING and PRINTING, in which BORROWING = TURBO PRINTING.

GuestJune 13th, 2009 at 4:05 pm

of course deflation is best scenario. it reward the saver and punish reckless spender. but obama and democrats, their massive spending will guarantee massive borrowing, printing, and taxing capital investment in USA. on top of that, helicopter Ben will not stop dropping money from thin air.

GuestJune 13th, 2009 at 4:07 pm

decades-long spending-spree just began. you haven’t synch your reality with obama and democrats? have you?

kilgoresJune 13th, 2009 at 4:30 pm

In India, the government has used measures such as giving away free transistor radios to men who agree to have vasectomies. It is a voluntary program of population control befitting a democratic society. China’s more coercive measures are effective to a point, but hardly a touchstone against which we should measure our own human rights policies.SWK

kilgoresJune 13th, 2009 at 4:34 pm

I agree, the United States could do far more to foster human rights than simply sending high officials to make annual pilgrimages to honor the slain of the Holocaust, and should do more to bring to the attention of the international community human rights violations against the Palestinians and others throughout the world.SWK

MorbidJune 13th, 2009 at 7:31 pm

Betelgeuse UpdateNearby Star May Be Getting Ready to Explode

Red giant stars are thought to have short, complicated and violent lifespans. Lasting at most a few million years, they quickly burn out their hydrogen fuel and then switch to helium, carbon and other elements in a series of partial collapses, refuelings and restarts.Betelgeuse, which is thought to be reaching the end of its lifespan, may be experiencing one of those collapses as it switches from one element to another as nuclear-fusion fuel.Betelgeuse’s rotation axis has an inclination of about 20° to the direction of Earth. Since its rotational axis is not toward the Earth, Betelgeuse’s supernova would not cause a focused gamma ray burst in the direction of Earth large enough to damage its ecosystem even from a relatively close proximity of 520 light years.It radiates mostly infrared wavelengths, so that only 13 percent of its radiant energy is emitted in the form of visible light.Betelgeuse, or Alpha Orionis, is now estimated to be located around 430 +/- 100 light-years from Sol – based on a HIPPARCOS Plx= 7.63 +/- e_Plx= 1.64 mas

Does anyone have a link to a blog with a discussion forum on Betelgeuse – I can’t seem to find one.Note that this star can be between 530 or 330 light years away – a large uncertainty in its location for some reason.

GirafJune 13th, 2009 at 8:08 pm

I share the view. The most important line in your comment was “There’s been a tectonic shift in attitudes towards consumption…”. The game is over.Obama and Helicopter Ben are just p***ing into the wind. When the Chinese run out of places to store all the “stuff” they’ve been accumulating for the last six months, the commodity boom and the infaltion scare will collapse.

GuestJune 13th, 2009 at 8:53 pm

Peter Schiff makes a substantial point here—and that is, if America doesn’t have a contract society, this economy will suffer substantially.He makes a great statement that contracts were made to forestall hardship. To override them and to subject them to arbitrary government action based on political support and political power rather than the rule of law and established contract will undermine confidence in U.S. contracts and substantially increase the cost of doing business with American companies. The most flagrant abuse of this in my opinion, so obviously political and helpful to the bankers, was the negation of Chrysler’s contracts with hundreds of its dealers.______________________________________________PROPERTY RIGHTS TAKE A HIT by Peter Schiffjune 13, 2009–“Crony capitalism” is a term often applied to foreign nations where government interference circumvents market forces. The practice is widely associated with tin-pot dictators and second-rate economies. In such a system, support for the ruling regime is the best and only path to economic success. Who you know supersedes what you know, and favoritism trumps the rule of law. Unfortunately, this week’s events demonstrate that the phrase now more aptly describes our own country.On Monday, the Supreme Court refused to hear an appeal from Chrysler’s secured creditors based on the government’s argument that the needs of other stakeholders outweighed those of a few creditors. In this case, the Administration concluded the interests of the United Auto Workers outweighed the interests of the Indiana teachers and firemen whose pension fund sued to block the restructuring. Given the enormous financial support that the UAW poured into the Obama campaign, such partiality is hardly surprising.When making their investment in Chrysler just a few months ago, the Indiana pension fund agreed to commit capital because of the specific assurances received from the company. In allowing this sham bankruptcy to be crammed through the courts, we have shredded the vital principal of the rule of law, and have become a nation of men, rather than one of laws.The risk that legal contracts can now be arbitrarily set aside will make investors think twice before committing capital to distressed corporations. Oftentimes enforcing contracts imposes hardships. That’s precisely why we have contracts.Without absolute faith that deals will be honored, it will be extremely difficult for U.S. companies to borrow money. This will be particularly true for those companies already struggling with too much debt. Without the ability to issue secured debt, how will such companies access the necessary capital to turn around? If secured creditors cannot count on the courts to enforce their claims, they will not put their capital at risk. What good is being a secured creditor if courts can allow the assets securing your claim to be sold for the benefit of others?Another problem with the government imposing losses on secured Chrysler creditors is that in its bailouts of financial companies (like Citigroup and AIG), the government took steps to specifically pay back creditors, even when those creditors should have been wiped out. This inconsistency and lack of equal protection further undermines faith in our economy.The message here is clear: loan money to financial entities with friends in Washington and no matter how risky the loan, taxpayers will bail you out if it goes bad. However, loan money to a unionized manufacturer, even if prudently secured by real assets, and you have as much chance of getting your money back as finding Jimmy Hoffa’s body.As if this wasn’t bad enough, testimony on Thursday from former Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis revealed a concerted effort on the part of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to pressure Lewis into hiding relevant financial information regarding Merrill Lynch losses from B of A shareholders. Recently released e-mails make it clear that the government threatened to remove corporate leaders if they failed to go through with the merger and keep quiet about the losses.Again, the justification for the interference seemed to be the “greater economic good” the merger would serve. The right of B of A shareholders to be informed that their company was about to buy a financial black hole was clearly considered to be an acceptable sacrifice.More importantly, the fact that two of the highest-ranking government officials can conspire to violate both securities laws and private property rights is abhorrent to everything America supposedly stands for. If they get away with it, which I believe they will, the precedent and the message will be chilling.As a broker who specializes in foreign investments, I am always wary of political risk. I must consider how the threat of arbitrary government action could undermine the value of my investments. However, recent events show that political risk is now greater here than abroad, and U.S. assets, which have historically traded at premium valuations based on faith in our legal system, will soon trade at discounts to reflect this new threat. The fear of having contracts abrogated or property rights violated when doing so serves some contrived greater good will substantially raise our cost of capital and further reduce our competitiveness.Peter Schiff is president of Euro Pacific Capital and author of The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets and Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse.http://www.lewrockwell.com/schiff/schiff26.1.html

GuestJune 13th, 2009 at 9:52 pm

Let’s see, China is buying gold, the oily Arabs are buying gold now the Japanese are dumping Bonds. Hmm…$134 Billion In U.S. Bonds found in false bottom suitcase that Japanese were trying to get into SwitzerlandJapan’s Interior minister has resigned. And here is the key, most clear evidence that these two Japanese men were on official diplomatic business – likely to dump US bonds:The men carrying the bonds had a Japanese passport. Secondly, they were not arrested. Under Italian law anyone in possession of counterfeit cash or bonds worth more than a few tens of thousands of euros must be arrested. By comparison the value of the seized counterfeit bonds is equal to 1 per cent of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP).http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=346http://www.asianews.it/index.php?l=en&art=15505

kilgoresJune 13th, 2009 at 10:27 pm

Just doing my part to support the world-wide Jewish conspiracy against everything, AJ….SWK

Little SaverJune 14th, 2009 at 12:45 am

Today only the deluded would argue that marketsare self-correcting or that we can rely on the self- interested behavior of marketparticipants to guarantee that everything works honestly and properly.(from the Stiglitz text)

MarkJune 14th, 2009 at 4:09 am

If you feel that I’m self-righteous, then that’s your take, your attempt at a defense of your position.You’re an apologist for war. I’ve seen your kind and your arguments for years now. Your position is steadily weakening as the facts come out.Yeah, I’ve heard all these lame arguments before. I’m sure that the Good Germans were well versed too.For your info SWK, I “served!” Yeah, I was trained to kill: 4 years USMC. Am I concerned with what I say, with who might hear it? Nope.Mark

MarkJune 14th, 2009 at 4:22 am

International coalition, please, don’t make me laugh. These coalitions are a joke, they are coercions at best. It’s the US (crappy policies) hiding behind a skirt.But what the heck, if this helps in the demise of this morally bankrupt government, then so be it. Worked well for the Soviet Union.When nearly 50% of the US population now believes that the attacks on 9/11 were somehow known about in advance and or abetted by the US government itself, then this tells you that the official story is starting to come apart. The basis for your righteous wars are crumbling. Mostly only hardcore Christians and Jews support these illegal wars anymore. Which are you?Mark

MarkJune 14th, 2009 at 4:32 am

Years ago I had argued about wagering on oil prices going up, that it wasn’t a smart thing to do. The reason was that the issue is about affordability, not necessarily price; if, for instance, oil prices at $100/bbl might seem high, while at $30 they might not; but… if one was unemployed, THEN $30/bbl would be high! (yes, there’s the broader issue of costs within the greater economy, but if the unemployed stayed unemployed then it could still potentially be worse than $100/bbl oil [and being employed]).I absolutely agree that people will end up having to live more on the pay-as-you-go model: I pretty much always have. This I applaud. I don’t believe, however, that there will be any long-term strength in a model that is predicated on growth.Mark

MarkJune 14th, 2009 at 4:38 am

Oh that crazy Roberts, he’s just a conspiracy nut! (tongue in cheek) Another person who has worked behind the scenes and understands how our government really works (and how it does, in fact, conspire and lie).TPTB are trying to use fear, nothing new really:”The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins; all of them imaginary.”- H.L. Mencken, 1923Mark

MarkJune 14th, 2009 at 5:20 am

Let go of the shore! Reduce consumption of things that THEY have control of: money (esp credit) and oil! You/I/We hold the key!Mark

MorbidJune 14th, 2009 at 6:37 am

Under Italian law anyone in possession of counterfeit cash or bonds worth more than a few tens of thousands of euros must be arrested. By comparison the value of the seized counterfeit bonds is equal to 1 per cent of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Maybe the Italians have figured out that soon $136 billion is worth less than a few tens of thousands of euros…

Turtle49June 14th, 2009 at 6:59 am

A written contract with your government is not a contract but a mere “agreement to agree” if agreement can be reached. My partners and I lost our investment and everyone looked the other way — including your Supreme Court. What goes around comes around — big time. Our Phoenix rises from the ashes of our trust.

MarkJune 14th, 2009 at 7:11 am

A prefect example of contracts NOT working. What contracts did the natives have for their land use?The Monopoly game is closing in on its end…Mark

MarkJune 14th, 2009 at 7:43 am

OK folks, inflation or deflation?De-Dollarization: Dismantling America’s Financial-Military Empire :-The Yekaterinburg Turning Point

Even without capital controls, the nations meeting at Yekaterinburg are taking steps to avoid being the unwilling recipients of yet more dollars. Seeing that US global hegemony cannot continue without spending power that they themselves supply, governments are attempting to hasten what Chalmers Johnson has called “the sorrows of empire” in his book by that name – the bankruptcy of the US financial-military world order. If China, Russia and their non-aligned allies have their way, the United States will no longer live off the savings of others (in the form of its own recycled dollars) nor have the money for unlimited military expenditures and adventures.US officials wanted to attend the Yekaterinburg meeting as observers. They were told No. It is a word that Americans will hear much more in the future.

What happened vis a vis inflation/deflation when the Soviet Union collapsed?I see the USD’s value plunging along with the amount of it in circulation.Mark

MarkJune 14th, 2009 at 7:49 am

Falling consumption and sales cannot equal “green shoots.” By all means check out the graphs in the article.Nathan’s Economic Edge: Sales – Still More Economic Cliff Diving…

But I think there’s enough evidence right here to dispel any notion of “green shoots.” Credit grew with the backing of the shadow banking system in an exponential manner and that’s why all the economic charts became shaped like a parabola. Those exponential math moves ALWAYS collapse under their own weight as never ending growth is simply a fantasy of Keynesian morons and central bankers. The Keynesian morons can be forgiven for being stupid and not understanding math, while the central bankers know the math all too well and take full advantage.Greenshoots or cliff diving? I let the charts decide, how ‘bout you?

Mark

GuestJune 14th, 2009 at 7:51 am

Calculating the distance of these stars is a very tricky process. Basically its a good guess nothing concrete thats why there are so many different numbers. We know less about the universe than we are led to beleive. :)

JM KeynesJune 14th, 2009 at 8:29 am

I am one of the most misunderstood geniuses of all times. Haven’t I enough ranted against overpaid and useless bankers and warned against speculative bubbles? The morons are the suckers who believed the neo-con rhetoric and Wall Street propaganda.

HubbsJune 14th, 2009 at 9:00 am

Hmmm I just lost my last post on this issue. The CIA must be intercepting.I haven’t really followed up on the story. First, were the bonds counterfeit or genuine? I think implications are drastically different.If counterfeit, then a whole host of intents pop into mind. Was this a deal between shady characters, the recipients of the bogus bonds about to get stung or stiffed? Blackmail? Extortion? Weapons purchase? Or simply a probe to test the real market (black market) demand and thus determine the real value of the bonds? If the big financial firms could peddle toxic CDS/CDO’s etc then why not govts?If the bonds are bogus, then why weren’t the carriers arrested if they didn’t have diplomatic immunity, or did they but this is being kept secret by Japan.Why go through the back door via Italy/ Why did they not go from Tokyo/Osaka/Nagoya direct to Zurich. False bottom suitcase suggests the intent to smuggle, or at least give that impression. Some big firm in Japan placing huge bets on shorting the US dollar send two “officials” who conveniently get caught– remember how the Japanese diplomats were in the dark until they received the last of 14 transmissions, but before they could type them up and deliver to the US, the bombing at Pearl had begun.But if the bonds were real and the Japanese govt has authorized, then what more do the Japanese know…or fear about the US debt.

GuestJune 14th, 2009 at 9:19 am

Senators held stock in bailed-out banksSenators who oversee the $700 billion Wall Street rescue package held stocks in many of the banks bailed out towards the end of last year, according to financial disclosure reports released Friday.According to the reports detailing senators’ finances in 2008, nearly half of the members of the Senate Banking Committee had holdings in financial institutions that have taken funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). The panel has jurisdiction over the bailout fund and other relief efforts directed by federal regulators to save the nation’s financial system.For example, Sen. Tim Johnson (D-S.D.), a Banking panel member, has assets in several banks that have taken bailout funds. Along with Goldman Sachs, the senator has several assets in Bank of America funds, worth at least $115,00. Bank of America has received $45 billion in government funds.Another Democrat invested in bailed-out institutions is Sen. Chuck Schumer (N.Y.). Schumer has assets valued between $15,001 and $50,000 in Morgan Stanley and $1,001 to $15,000 in Citibank, according to his financial disclosure report. Morgan Stanley received $10 billion in TARP money while Citigroup was given $25 billion from the program. Schumer’s assets in the two banks were savings accounts, however, not stock…more..http://rense.com/

Oedipus RexJune 14th, 2009 at 9:45 am

A little riddle. Contrary to what NR wrote somewhere above (and BB too sometime ago), there cannot be a global glut of savings over investment, as by definition savings=investment.But how is it possible that when consumers increase their savings, businesses instantly increase their investment by the same amount?

MichelleJune 14th, 2009 at 9:47 am

As I always question sinister motives, let’s suppose for just a moment that the bonds are real and that the suspects in question are working on behalf of a sovereign nation, not necessarily Japan. Wanting to avoid electronic detection, these bonds are to be physically carried into Switzerland to be delivered directly to the Bank for International Settlements, a central bank for international central banks. Could it be that one central bank is aiding another central bank or sovereign nation using a clandestine operation and using the BIS to facilitate the transaction? Reasons are many and we will probably never know the truth, but I am always suspicious of anything that is so far out of the norm.During this global financial crisis, we have seen a lot of extraordinary coordinated efforts by governments and central banks to stem the crisis, and I tend to lean towards the above theory than that of counterfeit bonds.

J.S. MillsJune 14th, 2009 at 9:53 am

Economics is riddled with fallacies, especially fallacies of composition and accounting fallacies.

GirafJune 14th, 2009 at 10:14 am

Should make for a great movie!Let’s think this through. Aren’t most bond holdings book based these days? If they are older bearer bonds, do they come in denominations big enough to hide in the bottom of a suitcase? Even if they had $1 billion denominations (which I very much doubt), 136 certificates is still a lot to hide in the bottom of a suitcase! If the story is true, they have to be bogus securities.(The denominations question reminded me of a funny personal experience about 25 years ago. I was a portfolio manager for a Canadian trust company and had purchase about a million dollars worth of Euro Canadian bonds for one of our clients. Back in those days, we required physical settlement. After they were delivered, the manager of the vault asked me to come visit him in his basement dwelling. He proceeded to show me the Trust companies holdings of various securities, which were enclosed in individual binders on rotating shelves. Them he showed me the Euro bonds I had purchased, shelf after shelf of them! Euro bonds, as it turned out, usually came in just $1,000 pieces. I had to promise him that I’d resell them before coupon payment date, otherwise he’d arrange for me to be dragged back to the vault, equipped with a paper of scissors and not to be let out until I’d clipped the coupon off a thousand some odd certificates).

GirafJune 14th, 2009 at 10:21 am

Maybe she hasn’t seen the latest weekly CFTC data for spec interest in the gold contract. Watch out when the pendulum swings!

MichelleJune 14th, 2009 at 10:53 am

Here is what was confiscated:Italy’s financial police (Guardia italiana di Finanza) has seized US bonds worth US 134.5 billion from two Japanese nationals at Chiasso (40 km from Milan) on the border between Italy and Switzerland. They include 249 US Federal Reserve bonds worth US$ 500 million each, plus ten Kennedy bonds and other US government securities worth a billion dollar each.What individual or organization has this kind of wealth parked in bonds and even so, what firm or institution would even accept even one?

kilgoresJune 14th, 2009 at 10:55 am

Mark:Your opinions respecting international coalitions are not backed up by anything factual or legal. I must assume you are ignorant of both history and international law. The coalition in Afghanistan is not a product of coercion, but of voluntary treaty obligations. You are simply spewing nonsense here.The coalition (the International Security Assistance Force or ISAF) is not coercive by any means. It was established in the aftermath of 9//11 by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1386 (see http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_1386) on 20 December 2001 as a NATO-led mission in accordance with the Agreement on Provisional Arrangements in Afghanistan Pending the Re-Establishment of Permanent Government Institutions (the Bonn Agreement). The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in response to the 9/11 attacks effectively ended a 20-year-long civil war in Afghanistan, and there was no central government with territorial control of the country, so these measures were put in place by the international community pursuant to various treaties to re-establish and stabilize a government for Afghanistan. The current work of the coalition in Afghanistan does not contravene international law, but is a direct product of it.If you think the United States is a morally bankrupt government, you’re entitled to do so and to express that view in this forum; however, comparing the illegal Soviet invasion and occupation of Afghanistan to the legal invasion of Afghanistan by the U.S. (the use of force was authorized in this case under well-established principles of international law) and the legal occupation of Afghanistan by the United States and other members of the ISAF is ludicrous. Your shallow “sound-bite” arguments are conclusory in nature, involve no substantive analysis of the facts or the law, and appear to be nothing more than the product of your own uninformed point of view.Your appeal to the numbers of people in the U.S. who believe the events of 9/11 were “somehow known in advance or abetted by the US government itself” is facially specious. First, I question whether your assertion of what percentage of the U.S. population believes this is accurate. That aside, though, empirical truth is not a product of democratic voting. The sun does not revolve around the earth, despite the fact that this view was embraced as the truth for many years before, and even after, Copernicus and Galileo Galilei established otherwise. Your argument is wholly illogical.I find your supercilious ad hominem attack to be particularly offensive. It is evident from your statement about “hardcore Christians and Jews” that you look down on people of religious faith, and deem them incapable of rational thought and judgment. My religious beliefs have no bearing whatsoever on the merits of my arguments or comments on this blog. That being said, while I don’t even know what you mean by the term ‘hardcore Christian,’ I have indicated in one or more previous threads on this blog in the past year or so that I am an Episcopalian, and my own personal religious views might surprise you. My position on Afghanistan, however, is not predicated on my religious beliefs or affiliations, but on the facts as I understand them to be and my background and training in international law (as I have also revealed in previous threads on this blog during the past year or so, I hold an advanced law degree in International and Comparative Law which I earned in London and have taught international relations and public international law to both undergraduates and law students).Frankly, you just come across as a hopeless little pissant who gets his rocks off by clinging to some fantastic conspiratorial paradigm of reality and chanting anti-U.S. slogans. It’s pathetic, really. I know you’re smarter than that, and it’s evident that you have a genuine desire to help bring about social, political, and economic justice in the world. I suggest you engage in some critical self-reflection and redouble your efforts to educate yourself on these issues.SWK

kilgoresJune 14th, 2009 at 11:10 am

Mark:I am not an apologist for war in general. More often than not, I object to U.S. military intervention abroad. I am simply asserting what I understand to be the facts and the law that validate the current efforts of the U.S. and its coalition partners in Afghanistan, and noting inconsistencies, lack of logic, and unsupported statements in your arguments.SWK

GuestJune 14th, 2009 at 11:55 am

What would it take to fix the Indian problem to your satisfaction, Mark? A few hundred more tax-free casinos, maybe? More tax-free sacred land grants to add to the 55.7 million acres now reserved for native Americans, say in some of the nation’s most expensively developed areas to add to those they already have in, say, downtown Palm Springs, or in Phoenix, San Diego, Santa Barbara County, or New Mexico or Georgia or Florida? Or say more prime, occupied land along the Oregon coast, or more quaint lighthouses such as Cape Blanco or St. Martin Island Lighthouse on land now owned by a Native American Indian tribe that allows no passage directly onto the island by tourists?There are currently 12 Indian reservations that are larger than the state of Rhode Island and nine reservations larger than Delaware . How about handing back Manhattan Island that the native Americans sold for $24 in beads and related trinkets? Or giving them Washington, DC?Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court are generous. Recently, all those Indians who live under their own governments within their reservation lands if they so choose to live there (even for tribes down to 3 or 4 members), have been allowed to build gambling casinos and resort hotels on those lands and reap the benefits of having exclusive access to populated areas that “non-native American” businesses are not allowed to have. Would it more properly fix the debt we owe to these American Indians if we moved all of the people out of at least one medium sized city in every state, say, and turned over all the real estate and businesses there to native American businessmen and residents (allowing their casinos, etc., to operate tax free of course)?Seriously, if the huge debt we owe native Americans (except of course if it turns out that native Americans were white men such as Kennewick man whose remains were turned over to Kennewick, Washington’s “native Americans” to destroy by Bill Clinton since Mr. Kennewick obviously pre-dated their arrival) falls short of forcing all of us on a Pol Pot genocide death march and turning the entire country back to them, what, practically, could be done that would satisfy you?

MichelleJune 14th, 2009 at 11:59 am

Here’s another good movie plot based on the personal account of the well-respected grandfather of a long-time and close friend:In the 60′s, Bud lived near the beach in a small northern Oregon coastal town. After a large storm one night, he took a flashlight and walked the beach looking for Japanese glass fishing floats, of which he had collected hundreds over the years while beach combing after storms.He wasn’t far from the well-lit street lights that illuminated the beach below, when he noticed a small rubber raft come ashore with one man inside. He didn’t move, but just watched, curious who and why someone would be so daring to be out in the ocean, in such a small vessel, in the dark, and alone.The man stepped out of the raft, deflated it and carefully folded it, then removed his wet suit, revealing a well-dressed suited man. He gathered up all his belongings and walked across the beach, up the steps to the street, and disappeared.Could it have been a Russian spy? Who’s to say, but sometimes fact is stranger than fiction.

Brett in ManhattanJune 14th, 2009 at 12:18 pm

All the market forces are pointing towards deflation. Let’s look at something that’s still very expensive: College tuition.Will people continue to take out loans and put themselves into massive debt only to not get a job when they graduate? At some point, it becomes a bad investment.Now, that the banks have been made whole, there’s no incentive for the Fed to continue easing as the money has no way to get to the consumer other than the proverbial Helicopter technique. Look for an “unexpected” event in the near future to make tightening happen more quickly.

Feel the shameJune 14th, 2009 at 12:47 pm

Early on, American Indians in The Iroquois League illuminated the thinking of Franklin, Jefferson, Paine, and other founding fathers about the nature of liberty, of revolution and of government (see Forgotten Founders by Bruce Johansen on Indian contribution to the constitution) – yet today the BIA spends $40,000 per year per American Indian man, woman, and child – and still the very poorest counties in America are RESERVEDS for American Indians.

11bravoJune 14th, 2009 at 1:22 pm

I stopped in the grocery store last night to grab a last minute bottle of chilled Chardonay. Now, I am generally about a $10 bottle guy, but had not bought any at all lately. Much to my surprise, there were huge savings on premium wines, and I picked up a great bottle for $12 that had been marked down $9 from the orignal $21. I had never seen so many of the $17-30 bottles selling in the $12-17 range. Just one man’s deflation observation.Independent Contractor

kilgoresJune 14th, 2009 at 3:23 pm

Sniper, can you please explain why you believe “401k” is an example of a fallacy of composition, an accounting fallacy, or some other fallacy? I’d still like to hear from J.S. Mills, too, with any examples he may care to share.SWK

GuestJune 14th, 2009 at 4:38 pm

Paralax and pulsing of the stars is used to map the distance of these stars.It is not a exact science. I would even say that when its said that the universe is 14.7 billion years old it not the exact age but thats the farthest point that we can see in the past.

for those who didn't know yetJune 14th, 2009 at 5:16 pm

The coincidence theorist’s guide to 9/11Happy coincidenting!That governments have permitted terrorist acts against their own people, and have even themselves been perpetrators in order to find strategic advantage is quite likely true, but this is the United States we’re talking about.That intelligence agencies, financiers, terrorists and narco-criminals have a long history together is well established, but the Nugan Hand Bank, BCCI, Banco Ambrosiano, the P2 Lodge, the CIA/Mafia anti-Castro/Kennedy alliance, Iran/Contra and the rest were a long time ago, so there’s no need to rehash all that. That was then, this is now!That Jonathan Bush’s Riggs Bank has been found guilty of laundering terrorist funds and fined a US-record $25 million must embarrass his nephew George, but it’s still no justification for leaping to paranoid conclusions.That George Bush’s brother Marvin sat on the board of the Kuwaiti-owned company which provided electronic security to the World Trade Centre, Dulles Airport and United Airlines means nothing more than you must admit those Bush boys have done alright for themselves.That George Bush found success as a businessman only after the investment of Osama’s brother Salem and reputed al Qaeda financier Khalid bin Mahfouz is just one of those things – one of those crazy things.That Osama bin Laden is known to have been an asset of US foreign policy in no way implies he still is.That al Qaeda was active in the Balkan conflict, fighting on the same side as the US as recently as 1999, while the US protected its cells, is merely one of history’s little aberrations.The claims of Michael Springman, State Department veteran of the Jeddah visa bureau, that the CIA ran the office and issued visas to al Qaeda members so they could receive training in the United States, sound like the sour grapes of someone who was fired for making such wild accusations.That one of George Bush’s first acts as President, in January 2001, was to end the two-year deployment of attack submarines which were positioned within striking distance of al Qaeda’s Afghanistan camps, even as the group’s guilt for the Cole bombing was established, proves that a transition from one administration to the next is never an easy task.That so many influential figures in and close to the Bush White House had expressed, just a year before the attacks, the need for a “new Pearl Harbor” before their militarist ambitions could be fulfilled, demonstrates nothing more than the accidental virtue of being in the right place at the right time.That the company PTECH, founded by a Saudi financier placed on America’s Terrorist Watch List in October 2001, had access to the FAA’s entire computer system for two years before the 9/11 attack, means he must not have been such a threat after all.That whistleblower Indira Singh was told to keep her mouth shut and forget what she learned when she took her concerns about PTECH to her employers and federal authorities, suggests she lacked the big picture. And that the Chief Auditor for JP Morgan Chase told Singh repeatedly, as she answered questions about who supplied her with what information, that “that person should be killed,” suggests he should take an anger management seminar.That on May 8, 2001, Dick Cheney took upon himself the job of co-ordinating a response to domestic terror attacks even as he was crafting the administration’s energy policy which bore implications for America’s military, circumventing the established infrastructure and ignoring the recommendations of the Hart-Rudman report, merely shows the VP to be someone who finds it hard to delegate.That the standing order which covered the shooting down of hijacked aircraft was altered on June 1, 2001, taking discretion away from field commanders and placing it solely in the hands of the Secretary of Defense, is simply poor planning and unfortunate timing. Fortunately the error has been corrected, as the order was rescinded shortly after 9/11.That in the weeks before 9/11, FBI agent Colleen Rowley found her investigation of Zacarias Moussaoui so perversely thwarted that her colleagues joked that bin Laden had a mole at the FBI, proves the stress-relieving virtue of humour in the workplace.That Dave Frasca of the FBI’s Radical Fundamentalist Unit received a promotion after quashing multiple, urgent requests for investigations into al Qaeda assets training at flight schools in the summer of 2001 does appear on the surface odd, but undoubtedly there’s a good reason for it, quite possibly classified.That FBI informant Randy Glass, working an undercover sting, was told by Pakistani intelligence operatives that the World Trade Center towers were coming down, and that his repeated warnings which continued until weeks before the attacks, including the mention of planes used as weapons, were ignored by federal authorities, is simply one of the many “What Ifs” of that tragic day.That over the summer of 2001 Washington received many urgent, senior-level warnings from foreign intelligence agencies and governments – including those of Germany, France, Great Britain, Russia, Egypt, Israel, Morocco, Afghanistan and others – of impending terror attacks using hijacked aircraft and did nothing, demonstrates the pressing need for a new Intelligence Czar.That John Ashcroft stopped flying commercial aircraft in July 2001 on account of security considerations had nothing to do with warnings regarding September 11, because he said so to the 9/11 Commission.That former lead counsel for the House David Schippers says he’d taken to John Ashcroft’s office specific warnings he’d learned from FBI agents in New York of an impending attack – even naming the proposed dates, names of the hijackers and the targets – and that the investigations had been stymied and the agents threatened, proves nothing but David Schipper’s pathetic need for attention.That Garth Nicolson received two warnings from contacts in the intelligence community and one from a North African head of state, which included specific site, date and source of the attacks, and passed the information to the Defense Department and the National Security Council to evidently no effect, clearly amounts to nothing, since virtually nobody has ever heard of him.That in the months prior to September 11, self-described US intelligence operative Delmart Vreeland sought, from a Toronto jail cell, to get US and Canadian authorities to heed his warning of his accidental discovery of impending catastrophic attacks is worthless, since Vreeland was a dubious character, notwithstanding the fact that many of his claims have since been proven true.That FBI Special Investigator Robert Wright claims that agents assigned to intelligence operations actually protect terrorists from investigation and prosecution, that the FBI shut down his probe into terrorist training camps, and that he was removed from a money-laundering case that had a direct link to terrorism, sounds like yet more sour grapes from a disgruntled employee.That George Bush had plans to invade Afghanistan on his desk before 9/11 demonstrates only the value of being prepared.The suggestion that securing a pipeline across Afghanistan figured into the White House’s calculations is as ludicrous as the assertion that oil played a part in determining war in Iraq.That Afghanistan is once again the world’s principal heroin producer is an unfortunate reality, but to claim the CIA is still actively involved in the narcotics trade is to presume bad faith on the part of the agency.Mahmood Ahmed, chief of Pakistan’s ISI, must not have authorized an al Qaeda payment of $100,000 to Mohammed Atta days before the attacks, and was not meeting with senior Washington officials over the week of 9/11, because I didn’t read anything about him in the official report.That Porter Goss met with Ahmed the morning of September 11 in his capacity as Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence has no bearing whatsoever upon his recent selection by the White House to head the Central Intelligence Agency.That Goss’s congressional seat encompasses the 9/11 hijackers’ Florida base of operation, including their flight schools, is precisely the kind of meaningless factoid a conspiracy theorist would bring up.It’s true that George HW Bush and Dick Cheney spent the evening of September 10 alone in the Oval Office, but what’s wrong with old colleagues catching up? And it’s true that George HW Bush and Shafig bin Laden, Osama’s brother, spent the morning of September 11 together at a board meeting of the Carlyle Group, but the bin Ladens are a big family.That FEMA arrived in New York on Sept 10 to prepare for a scheduled biowarfare drill, and had a triage centre ready to go that was larger and better equipped than the one that was lost in the collapse of WTC 7, was a lucky twist of fate.Newsweek’s report that senior Pentagon officials cancelled flights on Sept 10 for the following day on account of security concerns is only newsworthy because of what happened the following morning.That George Bush’s telephone logs for September 11 do not exist should surprise no one, given the confusion of the day.That Mohamed Atta attended the International Officer’s School at Maxwell Air Force Base, that Abdulaziz Alomari attended Brooks Air Force Base Aerospace Medical School, that Saeed Alghamdi attended the Defense Language Institute in Monterey merely shows it is a small world, after all.That Lt Col Steve Butler, Vice Chancellor for student affairs of the Defense Language Institute during Alghamdi’s terms, was disciplined, removed from his post and threatened with court martial when he wrote “Bush knew of the impending attacks on America. He did nothing to warn the American people because he needed this war on terrorism. What is…contemptible is the President of the United States not telling the American people what he knows for political gain,” is the least that should have happened for such disrespect shown his Commander in Chief.That Mohammed Atta dressed like a Mafioso, had a stripper girlfriend, smuggled drugs, was already a licensed pilot when he entered the US, enjoyed pork chops, drank to excess and did cocaine, was closer to Europeans than Arabs in Florida, and included the names of defence contractors on his email list, proves how dangerous the radical fundamentalist Muslim can be.That 43 lbs of heroin was found on board the Lear Jet owned by Wally Hilliard, the owner of Atta’s flight school, just three weeks after Atta enrolled – the biggest seizure ever in Central Florida – was just bad luck. That Hilliard was not charged shows how specious the claims for conspiracy truly are.That Hilliard’s plane had made 30-round trips to Venezuela with the same passengers who always paid cash, that the plane had been supplied by a pair of drug smugglers who had also outfitted CIA drug runner Barry Seal, and that 9/11 commissioner Richard ben-Veniste had been Seal’s attorney before Seal’s murder, shows nothing but the lengths to which conspiracists will go to draw sinister conclusions.Reports of insider trading on 9/11 are false, because the SEC investigated and found only respectable investors who will remain nameless involved, and no terrorists, so the windfall profit-taking was merely, as ever, coincidental.That heightened security for the World Trade Centre was lifted immediately prior to the attacks illustrates that it always happens when you least expect it.That Hani Hanjour, the pilot of Flight 77, was so incompetent he could not fly a Cessna in August, but in September managed to fly a 767 at excessive speed into a spiraling, 270-degree descent and a level impact of the first floor of the Pentagon, on the only side that was virtually empty and had been hardened to withstand a terrorist attack, merely demonstrates that people can do almost anything once they set their minds to it.That none of the flight data recorders were said to be recoverable even though they were located in the tail sections, and that until 9/11, no solid-state recorder in a catastrophic crash had been unrecoverable, shows how there’s a first time for everything.That Mohammed Atta left a uniform, a will, a Koran, his driver’s license and a “how to fly planes” video in his rental car at the airport means he had other things on his mind.The mention of Israelis with links to military-intelligence having been arrested on Sept 11 videotaping and celebrating the attacks, of an Israeli espionage ring surveiling DEA and defense installations and trailing the hijackers, and of a warning of impending attacks delivered to the Israeli company Odigo two hours before the first plane hit, does not deserve a response. That the stories also appeared in publications such as Ha’aretz and Forward is a sad display of self-hatred among certain elements of the Israeli media.That multiple military wargames and simulations were underway the morning of 9/11 – one simulating the crash of a plane into a building; another, a live-fly simulation of multiple hijackings – and took many interceptors away from the eastern seaboard and confused field commanders as to which was a real hijacked aircraft and which was a hoax, was a bizarre coincidence, but no less a coincidence.That the National Military Command Center ops director asked a rookie substitute to stand his watch at 8:30 am on Sept. 11 is nothing more than bad timing.That a recording made Sept 11 of air traffic controllers’ describing what they had witnessed, was destroyed by an FAA official who crushed it in his hand, cut the tape into little pieces and dropped them in different trash cans around the building, is something no doubt that overzealous official wishes he could undo.That the FBI knew precisely which Florida flight schools to descend upon hours after the attacks should make every American feel safer knowing their federal agents are on the ball.That a former flight school executive believes the hijackers were “double agents,” and says about Atta and associates, “Early on I gleaned that these guys had government protection. They were let into this country for a specific purpose,” and was visited by the FBI just four hours after the attacks to intimidate him into silence, proves he’s an unreliable witness, for the simple reason there is no conspiracy.That Jeb Bush was on board an aircraft that removed flight school records to Washington in the middle of the night on Sept 12th demonstrates how seriously the governor takes the issue of national security.To insinuate evil motive from the mercy flights of bin Laden family members and Saudi royals after 9/11 shows the sickness of the conspiratorial mindset.Le Figaro’s report in October 2001, known to have originated with French intelligence, that the CIA met Osama bin Laden in a Dubai hospital in July 2001, proves again the perfidy of the French.That the tape in which bin Laden claims responsibility for the attacks was released by the State Department after having been found providentially by US forces in Afghanistan, and depicts a fattened Osama with a broader face and a flatter nose, proves Osama, and Osama alone, masterminded 9/11.That at the battle of Tora Bora, where bin Laden was surrounded on three sides, Special Forces received no order to advance and capture him and were forced to stand and watch as two Russian-made helicopters flew into the area where bin Laden was believed hiding, loaded up passengers and returned to Pakistan, demonstrates how confusing the modern battlefield can be.That upon returning to Fort Bragg from Tora Bora, the same Special Operations troops who had been stood down from capturing bin Laden, suffered a unusual spree of murder/suicides, is nothing more than a series of senseless tragedies.Reports that bin Laden is currently receiving periodic dialysis treatment in a Pakistani medical hospital are simply too incredible to be true.That the White House went on Cipro September 11 shows the foresightedness of America’s emergency response.That the anthrax was mailed to perceived liberal media and the Democratic leadership demonstrates only the perversity of the terrorist psyche.That the anthrax attacks appeared to silence opponents of the Patriot Act shows only that appearances can be deceiving.That the Ames-strain anthrax was found to have originated at Fort Detrick, and was beyond the capability of all but a few labs to refine, underscores the importance of allowing the investigation to continue without the distraction of absurd conspiracy theories.That Republican guru Grover Norquist has been found to have aided financiers and supporters of Islamic terror to gain access to the Bush White House, and is a founder of the Islamic Institute, which the Treasury Department believes to be a source of funding for al Qaeda, suggests Norquist is at worst, naive, and at best, needs a wider circle of friends.That the Department of Justice consistently chooses to see accused 9/11 plotters go free rather than permit the courtroom testimony of al Qaeda leaders in American custody looks bad, but only because we don’t have all the facts.That the White House balked at any inquiry into the events of 9/11, then starved it of funds and stonewalled it, was unfortunate, but since the commission didn’t find for conspiracy it’s all a non issue anyway.That the 9/11 commission’s executive director and “gatekeeper,” Philip Zelikow, was so closely involved in the events under investigation that he testified before the commission as part of the inquiry, shows only an apparent conflict of interest.That commission chair Thomas Kean is, like George Bush, a Texas oil executive who had business dealings with reputed al Qaeda financier Khalid bin Mafouz, suggests Texas is smaller than they say it is.That co-chair Lee Hamilton has a history as a Bush family “fixer,” including clearing Bush Sr of the claims arising from the 1980 “October Surprise”, is of no concern, since only conspiracists believe there was such a thing as an October Surprise.That FBI whistleblower Sibel Edmonds accuses the agency of intentionally fudging specific pre-9/11 warnings and harboring a foreign espionage ring in its translation department, and claims she witnessed evidence of the semi-official infrastructure of money-laundering and narcotics trade behind the attacks, is of no account, since John Ashcroft has gagged her with the rare invocation of “State Secrets Privilege,” and retroactively classified her public testimony. For the sake of national security, let us speak no more of her.That, when commenting on Edmond’s case, Daniel Ellsberg remarked that Ashcroft could go to prison for his part in a cover-up, suggests Ellsberg is giving comfort to the terrorists, and could, if he doesn’t wise up, find himself declared an enemy combatant.I could go on. And on and on. But I trust you get the point. Which is simply this: there are no secrets, an American government would never accept civilian casualties for geostrategic gain, and conspiracies are for the weak-minded and gullible.http://rigorousintuition.blogspot.com/2004/08/coincidence-theorists-guide-to-911.html

ThatsTheFactJackJune 14th, 2009 at 7:18 pm

@ Some of the banks didn’t need the cash in the first place.This implies fiscal health OR just more propaganda/rubbish.If any of these big banks were truly healthy back in 2007/2008, then they all should have been left to their own fate. (then and now)The great hypocrisy of Wall Streeters is that out of one face they are crying for fiscal rescue under the threat of systemic collapse (that they manufactured) AND from the other face they are telling you they are healthy.Then, Giraf since they are healthy, let’s have the Govt and the FED cancel all corporate welfare (TARP, TALF, PPIP, Maiden Lane i, ii & iii, etc.) to the banks & brokerages pronto.Then we can begin the process of true reconciliation in this nation whereby the Govt and Central Bank backstop the people of this nation in lieu of corporations and thus restore the REAL economy to its senior and protected stature at the expense of the shadow economy that many are still clinging to.

kilgoresJune 14th, 2009 at 7:47 pm

Golly, that string of disjointed factoids all so compelling, I don’t know how anyone could possibly continue to believe that 9/11 was actually caused by Al Qaeda terrorists hijacking planes and slamming them into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the way the government says it happened. Who could be so weak-minded and gullible as to believe such an obviously fabricated story?(I am capable of being facetious, too….)SWK

GuestJune 14th, 2009 at 8:39 pm

Alright class, what could possibly be going on today that would cause the sell-off in precious metals, oil, global stock markets, and a rise in the USD?One shiny gold star for the correct response!Hide replies Reply to this comment By Michelle on 2009-06-12 07:14:02Michelle,What percent change in price equates to a sell-off?

GuestJune 14th, 2009 at 9:05 pm

Better than Bond, Better than blogs.Watch The International with Clive OwenArt imitating life … maybe, maybe not, but the film medium might be the best way to convey what even the most skilled and articulate among us here are trying to …

GuestJune 14th, 2009 at 9:21 pm

This is too much. Soros made $2.9 billion in 2007 off of CDSs and another billion or so in 2008. I guess he has nothing to bet against these days so it’s…Soros slams ‘instruments of destruction’“Some derivatives ought not to be allowed to be traded at all. I have in mind credit default swaps. The more I’ve heard about them, the more I’ve realized they’re truly toxic,” Soros told a banking conference. (BWaHaHaHa)http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/12/news/economy/soros_swaps.reut/index.htm?postversion=2009061206

GuestJune 14th, 2009 at 9:47 pm

The current bubble is government spending and employmentThis is no recession. We are already on our way to a Depression (a GDP contraction of 10%) possibly even another Great Depression. One in nine Americans are currently receiving food stamps. Real unemployment (without birth/death seasonal nonsense and all the other Federal gimmicks) stands at 20%.We will bottom WHEN:* CNBC and Bloomberg start firing anchors and cutting their coverage time by hours, not minutes.* Maria Bartiromo and Jim Cramer start telling investors to short the market with all they’ve got.* Questions like “do you think we’re heading for a recovery” result in the questioner getting punched in the face or ignored like a loony tune.* People HATE stocks and stock ownership has plummeted back to one in ten Americans (the pre-401(k) levels).* Investing is no longer a hobby and people fight tooth and nail to retain their nest egg (honestly what the hell is “play” or “speculative” money?)* The number of mutual funds has fallen by at least half (why are we paying fees for people who can’t beat the market?).* People no longer want to get an MBA to become a broker or a financial advisor.* Our economy is based on “making something,” not “offering advice.”* Books about Warren Buffett no longer comprise an entire publishing industry (seriously, Amazon lists 5,000+ books on him).* The Richest 500 people in the world are no longer all billionaires (never happened before in history… how’s that for concentration of wealth?)* Guys like me are no longer writing about finance or investing but instead take up a respectable profession.Graham Summershttp://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/summers061209.html

GuestJune 14th, 2009 at 10:09 pm

Just finished watching the DVD. At the end, my wife asked me what bank that equated to in the real world. I said “How about GS?”

GuestJune 14th, 2009 at 10:42 pm

Are these the same people that bought oil tankers and have them sitting off shore, waiting for the prices to go up.

GuestJune 14th, 2009 at 10:56 pm

nah, it is hard to imagine we are in recession, when FED and Gov are blowing another debt bubble (gov spending). For deflation to happen, the world need to force FED to stop printing and to force Treasury to stop issuing debt. For that to happen, DOLLAR must die, otherwise, recession/deflation will not be able to run its course.

GuestJune 14th, 2009 at 10:59 pm

unless there is dollar crisis, stupid foreign sovereigns will continue to back dollar or dollar denominated debt. there should be a shake in dollar confidence before recession/deflation be able to run it normal course. until then, it is helicoptor Ben droping money out of thin air and Tim boy issue tons debt, and blowing bigger bubbles.

GuestJune 14th, 2009 at 11:13 pm

inflation, just look at college tuition and medical expense. doctor visit almost $200, blood test almost $300. prescription drug couple more hundred/month. medical expenses force insurance cost to go up.

GuestJune 14th, 2009 at 11:16 pm

wait, didnt Japanese gov recently announced they believe in dollar? and their action is dumping USD denominated debt? holly smoke.

GuestJune 15th, 2009 at 3:00 am

You are so correct but just like US military spending this is something no one talks about. I have started suspecting that Starbucks is actually an NSA front-end that drugs Americans into some sort of a non-thinking mode.Take the tail piece of the airplanes hitting the twin towers. If the hit was real, these should have fallen to the ground rather than “disappeared”. The reason is, that the heat generated from the impact and the supposed explosion (since it was, supposedly, primarily based on the jet fuel and not anything inside the buildings) was not sufficient to completely melt the very tail end of the airplanes.

GuestJune 15th, 2009 at 3:02 am

The tail pieces should have fallen to the ground somewhere near the impact site.Before 9/11 there had not been a single explosion where an explosion has absolutely completely oblitarerated a passenger airplane.

AnonymousJune 15th, 2009 at 4:21 am

Hey SWKWhen the US forces talk about a “Coalition” it means “basically, we’re on our own”.When their allies are with them they use the word “Alliance”.There was a nice writeup on this some days ago will post link if I get it.

GuestJune 15th, 2009 at 5:03 am

I come from Sweden, and know a little of the Latvian crizis.Sweden had a banking crizis around 1990. Then the Swedish government got the control of three of the four largest banks.Last week ,Bo Lungren, chief of “riksgälden”, which handles finacial issues, said that he is prepared to take over the control of swedish bank if it is nessesary. Actually he did take control of a small investmentbank “Carnegie” some months ago.The swedish banks have assets of around 400 billion swedish crowns (around 60 billion dollar). Swedich banks have around 2/3 of market in the three baltic states, and have lent around 40 billion euro.Sweden have an historical and military stragetic interest in the baltic countries, and is prepared to help the region. The whole region is around 1/10 of the size of the swedish economy.In the scandinavian countries, it is political impossible to let russian take control och the Baltic region. Acually russia wanted to assist iceland in there economical meltdown, and after that Iceland very fast got loans from the Scandinavian countries.Our finance minister has said that the swedish banks are going to pay for the baltic states and if nessesary the swedish government.A agree in all aspects the conclusions of the article but want to add that Swedish government knows what is nessesary to do and have detailed plans for it.Sweden is highly dependent of export, and the plan seems to be to try to deal whith the baltic crizis, when the global economy has improved, and the swedish export has improved.The latvian export industry and economy, cannot be rescued by adjusting the currency anyway, the most important issue right now is to not let russian interests take control, and let the swedish government take control over the banks, in a controlled way to save money for the swedish taxpayers while there still is money left in the banks.Then the swedish government will have massive wright down of the loans to the latvian people, else there is risk that they wont pay the money anyway and be forced into reunion whith russia.

MarkJune 15th, 2009 at 6:16 am

Sorry SWK, but in the end your beliefs of the “facts” will be proven wrong.Again, I suspect that there’s a hidden bias that you’re not willing to disclose. I’ve been exposed to a lot of information and people regarding all this crap, I’ve seen it all and I’m pretty certain that your position is cased in some ugly dogma. Usually I run across this in Evangelical types that have never served: kind of like the group of chicken hawks that precipitated these drummed up wars.Mark

MarkJune 15th, 2009 at 6:27 am

For your information I look down on all hypocrites. And, for those who actually are walking around with their eyes open, these wars are primarily pushed using religious dogmas (from both “sides”): nothing new.Your assertions of your superiority (and your personal attacks [I was attacking positions, you interjected the personal]) would seem to exemplify self-righteousness.Like I said earlier, your position will be proven false, just like WMDs, just like 9/11.Education and degrees does not equal wisdom. I’m not the one ego tripping…Mark

MarkJune 15th, 2009 at 6:31 am

Cool, now we can ALL be winos :-) I’m seeing an increasing number of cars piled with personal artifacts: people living out of their cars. Police shootings (in my community) are increasing, as are assaults. But hey, let the wine flow! :-) Mark

MarkJune 15th, 2009 at 6:35 am

If you were selling and you could make more money wouldn’t you? Clearly there’s a cost cutoff at which sitting on it starts to eat into the gains.But, as I stated, the only real control we have is to minimize our exposure (consume less oil). That’s the future anyway, why not move in that direction now, voluntarily?Mark

MarkJune 15th, 2009 at 6:49 am

Sorry, but it’s not a personal thing… Not much is with me.The POINT was that in order to be better people we have to acknowledge our actions. And, that we can’t view ourselves (take ourselves so seriously) as being superior and omnipotent as we like to portray ourselves (our prevailing historical accountings are woefully, as is the case with all conquerors, one-sided).Casinos, don’t get me started! Not only do I not like them, I think that it’s one of the cruelest tricks ever pulled on the native American Indians, thank you Ronald Reagan! I live near one of these products (and between that and the “white man’s” hockey arena here, I can’t say which I find more ridiculous).In the end we’ll all be forced back on the land. As this happens we will have wished that we’d paid more attention (treated more fairly) to those that came before us, that were closer to the land.But getting back to law and contracts… there’s plenty of trails of documented abuse (failure to comply). But that’s always been the case, as it’s the rich who control the laws for themselves. Heck, the U.S. was based on unequal law: women couldn’t vote; blacks weren’t whole people etc.. Nothing like getting an insurmountable head start!Mark

MarkJune 15th, 2009 at 6:54 am

Yeah, it’s like other back alley activities (e.g. drugs), it’s usually related to bad stuff. Doesn’t bode well for the USD…Mark

MarkJune 15th, 2009 at 6:57 am

But what ISN’T oscillating? At some point, however, the oscillations will settle down, and when the dust settles I guess we’ll see what direction the wind blew.Mark

MarkJune 15th, 2009 at 6:59 am

How about “sustainable economic growth?”And from that base/fundamental, all else is surely a fallacy…Mark

MarkJune 15th, 2009 at 7:32 am

Great compilation. Missing, however, was that the FBI’s top terrorist tracker Paul O’Neil, and person with the most knowledge of al Qaeda and bin Laden, got pushed out of the FBI prior to 9/11 (yes, he did quit, so I guess you could just chalk it up to coincidence). Oh, and what job did he take up after leaving the FBI? Head of security for the World Trade Center! His first day on the job? September 11, 2001! Yes, his first day on the job and he’s witness to the greatest security failure in the history of the U.S. But Paul wasn’t an agent in all of this, no, he got snuffed out that day. As they say, dead dogs don’t wag their tails…But what the heck, our legal minds made sure that we could still kill and plunder in Afghanistan, in which case all this “old history” is really irrelevant.Oh, and what was in building 7 (besides mayor Giuliani’s “command bunker,” which, oddly, wasn’t in use that day)? No one would really wished to have seen the SEC’s investigations into Enron and Worldcom (two of up to 4,000 investigations) get wiped out.Mark

MarkJune 15th, 2009 at 7:43 am

Hey, don’t pick on SWK, he’s (a very important- just ask him) attorney! Attorneys aren’t required to understand physics! (they rely on experts, like those presenting for, excuse me, TO the 9/ll commission)But really, I had thought that the REAL law was about “THE PRESUMPTION OF INNOCENCE UNTIL PROVEN GUILTY.” Did I miss the trial; you know, the trial where the accused actually have representation?What am I thinking, why would I want to defend some system that allows torture?Once upon a time it was illegal to speak of the world being anything other than flat. Point: physics trumps man’s laws.Mark

MichelleJune 15th, 2009 at 7:45 am

My definition would probably vary from others, but in the current environment I regard a sell-off in precious metals and oil of approximately 2% and stock markets greater than 1%. Last fall a typical sell-off in the stock markets would have been greater than 3% as liquidity was extremely tight.

GuestJune 15th, 2009 at 7:55 am

Why wouldn’t the tail section have gone inside the structure, like the rest of the fuselage? The thing was flying at 400-500 mph at impact. If fact, didn’t we see the second plane disappear into the second tower or was that fake video?

MarkJune 15th, 2009 at 7:56 am

This sounds like something from Alice In Wonderland, the Mad Tea Party:New York Region Manufacturing Shrinks at Faster Pace, Fed Says

Manufacturing in the New York region this month contracted at a faster pace as sales and inventories declined.The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s June general economic index fell to minus 9.4 from minus 4.6 the prior month, the bank said today. Readings below zero for the Empire State index signal manufacturing activity is shrinking.U.S. companies are likely to keep cutting stockpiles until sales show sustained gains, indicating orders and production will be restrained. The New York Fed’s factory gauge of the outlook for the next six months climbed to the highest level in almost two years as the drawdown in goods on hand clears the way for factories to ramp up output in coming months.“The drawdown in inventories as much as anything else is setting the stage for a return to growth,” Tim Quinlan, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said before the report. “We look for growth to return to the U.S. economy as early as the second half.”

Good days ahead because manufacturing is collapsing? Strength through exhaustion?Mark

MarkJune 15th, 2009 at 8:10 am

We don’t have to resort to any speculation at all. Physics provides enough of the evidence.And what exactly is the temperature required to vaporize aluminum?SWK, in service to the law and to country (not govenment, not nation), as an attorney maybe you could pursue the release of real video of what hit the Pentagon building. I would be happy to contribute financially to this work, and I’m sure that others would as well.Mark

GuestJune 15th, 2009 at 8:12 am

http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/06/the-magical-world-of-credit-default-swaps-once-again/William Buiter does an excellent job of highlighting the importance of insurance concepts such as requiring an insurable interest when regulating credit default swaps. This is the very least that should be immediately implemented. CDS is insurance and should be regulated as such. It has become a casino for supranormal profits that has no present real value to society. Why is it not being regulated?Because the contributors to the politicians are the casino participants, and if the crazy casino goes bust the taxpayer pays. Speculative Financial “capitalism” has degraded into Crony Parasitism,which is both corrupt and inefficient. We have always tolerated a bit of corruption, but when the corruptionis the generator of societal innefiency that creates systemic risk, there must be action.

MarkJune 15th, 2009 at 8:28 am

Don’t think that it’s necessarily neo-con centric. More like it, it’s pure greed propelled/facilitated by too much legislative power.Mark

GuestJune 15th, 2009 at 8:32 am

Several guests above have commented on the significance of art in bringing concepts to light. “The International” has been mentioned and it is worth watching. Why would a bank sell weapons, when there is not that much profit? Because it is a method of control of debt. Both sides of all conflicts have been financed by the same banks on both sides. Look at all the wars in the 20th century and you will find both sides financed by same bankers. The bankers need to increase the debt of nation states, because debt and compound interest is their business. What nation state function creates the most debt? Military expenditures. What happens when banks run short of military contracts? They create an international asset inflation to create further debt instruments, i.e. an international real estate bubble and then they prick the bubble and everybody is in debt to them and they have control. Debt is the most effective method of political and economic control.Let me issue the debt for a country and I am the sovereign. Do we have to be beat over the head to understand what has been going on and where this is heading. The levels of sovereign debt now experienced and the subtle conditionalities that will be applied to the extension of the IMF and World Bank loans will give the bankers the equivalent of an informal sovereign status that preempts nation-state action.The nation states are subservient when they are in debt. The banking interests need debt and decentralized nation-state power to control the wholeeconomic system. They have a de-facto world sovereignty with this present debt crisis.

MM CAJune 15th, 2009 at 8:40 am

And wait until the higher gas prices hit this summer!!! americans have no more capcitity for debt, either to take it on or even pay what they owe. there will be no recovery anytime soon because expansion through taking on debt/borrwoing will never happen.Credit Card Losses Spike In MayCredit card losses continue to get worse. Card issuer Capital One (COF) said in an SEC filing this morning that its annualized charge-offs hit 9.41% in May, which is up 10% from an 8.56% rate in April.Worse, as noted by Reuters, is that the rate of deterioration would have been worse had it not been for an accounting change.Here’s the note from the SEC filing:A change in bankruptcy processing resulted in an improvement in the U.S. Card charge-off rate that is reflected in the May results. The impact was approximately 50 basis points. While our internal guidelines require bankrupt accounts to be charged off within 30 days, our practice had been to charge off customer accounts within 2 to 3 days of receiving notification of bankruptcy. Due in part to an increase in the volume of bankruptcies, we have extended our processing window to improve the efficiency and accuracy of bankruptcy-related charge-off recognition. The new process remains within Capital One’s internal guidelines, as well as FFIEC guidelines that bankrupt accounts must be charged-off within 60 days of notificationhttp://www.businessinsider.com/credit-card-losses-spike-10-in-may-capital-one-2009-6

MM CAJune 15th, 2009 at 8:48 am

Intersing read.. whole article link below…Depression Porn: How Banks Are Gaming The Real Estate MarketUS Stocks Gain On Report Of Pending Home Sales . . . Pending Home Sales Rise the Most in Over Seven Years . . . Consumer Confidence Spurs Broad Gain . . .You see the same bullshit headlines churned out everywhere you turn. Yes sir, we’re supposed to believe the recession is over, recovery is underway and prosperity is just around the corner. We need to go out and fulfill our patriotic duty, which means buying things, preferably houses. That’s what smart investors would do, we’re told. And judging by the polls, Americans are starting to believe it.http://exiledonline.com/depression-porn-gaming-the-real-estate-market/all/1/

MM CaJune 15th, 2009 at 9:01 am

NO JOBS and rising Enemployment will contuinue to hammer away at our economy. We are well past every projection on what unemployment would be, the stress tests are already stressed out. Bank loses will continue to mount, forclosures will continue to rise, Credit card loses will go higher, House prices will continue to drop (articel below says Calif drop to be 36% jsut in 2009). Poor Joe biden tried to explain the logic of how they created 150K in new/saved jobs over the weekend. I must be missing something. Even if 150k is true that is 1 weeks worth of job losses. Obama and the his folks are misleading people. They only reason we ar enot in full Depression with long lines,shortages, etc… is because of the bailouts. they kind of saved baout 3 million Auto jobs, probably some Bank and wall street jobs, all becuase of the “loans” they gave these companies. What are they are going to do when no one is buying new autos and those jobs have to eventually go away. And what about when the banks Implode again and some of them have to go away.There are NO JOBS, We have lsot the abiltiy to produce/manufacture goods that we need or want. This reset of will be long and painful and will take years.Fitch Takes Various Actions on 543 2005-2008 U.S. Subprime RMBS DealsNEW YORK, Jun 12, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) — Fitch Ratings has taken various rating actions on 543 2005 through 2008 vintage U.S. subprime RMBS transactions in the course of its ongoing review of subprime RMBS.A spreadsheet detailing Fitch’s rating actions on the affected transactions, as well as Expected Loss for each mortgage pool and Loss Coverage Ratios for each bond, is available at http://www.fitchratings.com under the following headers:Structured Finance >> RMBS >> Rating Action ReportsToday’s rating actions reflect Fitch’s analysis of expected default and loss from the collateral pool in addition to cash flow analysis of each class. The average updated expected collateral losses as a percentage of the original pool balance for the 2005, 2006 and 2007 vintages are 17%, 39% and 47%, respectively. As a percentage of the remaining pool balances, the average expected losses for the three vintages are 45%, 59% and 55%.The updated expected collateral losses incorporate performance trends since the last rating revisions which relied on September 2008 remittance data. The projected losses also reflect an assumption that from the first quarter of 2009, home prices will fall an additional 12.5% nationally and 36% in California, with home prices not exhibiting stability until the second half of 2010. To date, national home prices have declined by 27%. Fitch Rating’s revised peak-to-trough expectation is for prices to decline by 36% from the peak price achieved in mid-2006. The additional 9% decline represents a 12.5% decline from today’s levels.The home price declines to date have resulted in negative equity for approximately 50% of the remaining performing borrowers in the 2005-2007 vintages. In addition to continued home price deterioration, unemployment has risen significantly since the third quarter of last year, particularly in California where the unemployment rate has jumped from 7.8% to 11%.more at : http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fitch-takes-various-actions-on-543-2005-2008-us-subprime-rmbs-deals?siteid=nbkh

GuestJune 15th, 2009 at 9:03 am

Sean Corrigan, chief investment strategist at Diapason Securities provides us with the following list of ‘then and now’ observations:Then…DOW ‘29: FELL 48% RALLIED 48% FELL 78%NASDAQ ‘00: FELL 40% RALLIED 40% FELL 81%TOPIX ‘89: FELL 48% RALLIED 37% FELL 65%UST YIELDS ‘81: FELL 34% RALLIED 34% FELL 85%US HOUSEBUILDERS ‘05: FELL 47% RALLIED 45% FELL 82%Abu Dhabi ‘05: FELL 26% RALLIED 26% FELL 55%GOLD ‘80: FELL 43% RALLIED 46% FELL 65%SILVER ‘80: FELL 67% RALLIED 61% FELL 75%CRUDE ‘90: FELL 32% RALLIED 29% FELL 51% (+)Now…SHANGHAI COMP ‘08:FELL 73% RALLIED 70% …….NDX ‘08: FELL 50% RALLIED 48% …..MSCI MACHINERY ‘08: FELL 64% RALLIED 60%…JPYAUD ‘08: FELL 47% RALLIED 46%…GSCI ENERGY ‘08: FELL 71% RALLIED 71%…DCI METALS ‘08: FELL 55% RALLIED 55%…DCI AGRI ‘08: FELL 50% RALLIED 46%….

MarkJune 15th, 2009 at 9:31 am

The PNW is so in denial. The media continue to report Boeing in their “Local” stock reports. I dogged them for a while explaining that once Boeing’s headquarters moved to Chicago that it no longer was a “Local” company. I mean, why not report GM, Ford and Chrysler as being “Local,” after all, they too are responsible for employing a lot of people in the PNW (add up all the dealerships and auto repair and parts suppliers).D-E-N-I-A-LMark

MarkJune 15th, 2009 at 9:37 am

The banking interests need debt and decentralized nation-state power to control the whole economic system.Actually I think that this is incorrect. I think that they have control/power exactly because they have access to centralized nation-states. These entities are empowered by natino-states (think subsidies, think current bailouts).When you have a focal point it’s easier to attack. What would lobbyists do if they had to attack in all 50 U.S. states rather than just one central location?Fundamentals, power corrupts…Mark

GuestJune 15th, 2009 at 9:43 am

The Frame of Mind of American Economic Policymakers by Marc Faber (Part I)June 12, 2009 — I seldom become depressed, but when I consider that prosperity is created by “peace, easy taxes and a tolerable administration of justice” I really think that the U.S. and other Western governments are doing their very best to impoverish their countries.A friend of mine, Michael Berry, whose missives I always read, could not have phrased this better than in “Importance of the Individual,” a recent report in which he quotes Milton Friedman (whose views I fully share in this particular instance) in an interview with Phil Donohue.According to Berry, “On February 11, 1979 Milton Friedman took 2-1/2 minutes to explain the critical importance of the individual and choice in the free enterprise system to a doubting Phil Donohue. I wonder what Dr. Friedman would say 30 years later about our current predicament and the role government is assuming in our lives? The individual’s freedom and ability to choose and take risks to create value are, of course, all important life elements and a cornerstone of our country.“Individual ability to choose and take risk is being suppressed. It is increasingly evident that it is the government that is defining risk and the taking of risk. The sanctity of Moral Hazard has now been repeatedly breached by both recent administrations. We must guard these life elements jealously. Please take time to ponder the Friedman interview.“Unfortunately in the current partisan atmosphere in Washington the role of the individual and that of individual risk taking is being suppressed. When the President of the United States uses the ‘Bully Pulpit’ to criticize institutions for not ‘playing ball’ (Chrysler debt holders) and forces a CEO to resign (GM’s Wagoner), when a Treasury Secretary and Chairman of the President’s Economic Council team up to run an auto company (General Motors), and when no institution is too large to fail (the other side of individual risk taking) something is seriously amiss. Under the guise of saving the economy, there is a not so stealthy encroachment on the rights of the individual. No one is noticing.“This is not, ‘Change We Can Believe In.’ It is ‘change we must be wary of.’ Where is Milton Friedman when we really need him? Think carefully about the following interview which was conducted 30 years ago. Another read of Friedman’s Free to Choose is in order for all. We pray that Washington will not stray too far.”Phil Donohue: When you see around the globe the maldistribution of wealth, the desperate plight of millions of people in underdeveloped countries. When you see so few haves and so many have-nots. When you see the greed and the concentration of power. Did you ever have a moment of doubt about capitalism? And whether greed is a good idea to run on?Milton Friedman: Well first of all tell me, is there some society you know that doesn’t run on greed? You think Russia doesn’t run on greed? You think China doesn’t run on greed? What is greed? Of course none of us are greedy. It’s only the other fella that’s greedy. The world runs on individuals pursuing their separate interests. The greatest achievements of civilization have not come from government bureaus. Einstein didn’t construct his theory under order from a bureaucrat. Henry Ford didn’t revolutionize the automobile industry that way. In the only cases in which the masses have escaped from the kind of grinding poverty that you are talking about, the only cases in recorded history are where they have had capitalism and largely free trade. If you want to know where the masses are worst off, it’s exactly in the kind of societies that depart from that.So that the record of history is absolutely crystal clear, there is no alternative way, so far discovered, of improving the lot of the ordinary people that can hold a candle to the productive activities that are unleashed by a free enterprise system.Phil Donohue: Seems to reward not virtue as much as the ability to manipulate the system.Milton Friedman: And what does reward virtue? You think the Communist commissar rewards virtue? You think a Hitler rewards virtue? Do you think… American presidents reward virtue? Do they choose their appointees on the basis of the virtue of the people appointed or on the basis of political clout? Is it really true that political self-interest is nobler somehow than economic self-interest? You know I think you are taking a lot of things for granted. And just tell me where in the world you find these angels that are going to organize society for us? Well, I don’t even trust you to do that. (end)Well, for sure you won’t find any angels at central banks around the world and in the economics faculties of universities. I needed quite a stiff drink after reading a Wall Street Journal article by Harvard Professor Gregory Mankiw, who advocates creating negative real interest rates through inflation and seems to have great sympathy for the outright expropriation of savers. Professor Mankiw needs no introduction. His great intellect was revealed on February 1, 2000, dead ahead of the NASDAQ collapse, when he expressed the view in the Wall Street Journal that “when you look at the mistakes of the 1920s and 1930s, they were clearly amateurish. It is hard to imagine that happening again – we understand the business cycle much better.”The mindset of the US Federal Reserve and of a very large number of economists is perfectly reflected in the views of Mankiw, according to whom, “It May be Time for the Fed to Go Negative” (see Wall Street Journal of April 19, 2009). For the ease of the reader I have added some comments, which will be noted in italics and with a “MF.”Mankiw: “With unemployment rising and the financial system in shambles, it’s hard not to feel negative about the economy right now. The answer to our problems, however, could well be more negativity. But I’m not talking about attitude. I’m talking about numbers [MF: He means negative interest rates]… What is the best way for an economy to escape a recession? Until recently, most economists relied on monetary policy. Recessions result from an insufficient demand for goods and services – and so, the thinking goes, our central bank can remedy this deficiency by cutting interest rates. Lower interest rates encourage households and businesses to borrow and spend. More spending means more demand for goods and services, which leads to greater employment for workers to meet that demand.”There is no clear evidence that interest rate cuts stimulate lasting employment gains, because “lower interest rates encourage households and businesses to borrow and spend.” If an industry is plagued by overcapacities (the oil and mining industry in the 1980s and 1990s), lower interest rates (interest rates fell throughout the 1980s and 1990s) are irrelevant. (The same applies for autos now.) In addition, interest rate cuts that encourage households to borrow and spend may not help employment in the country that implements such policies (the US after 2001) but instead in another country (China), where production costs are lower and where a large pool of savings is available for capital spending. (Also, it is not consumption that creates prosperity but capital formation.) To his credit, Mankiw recognizes this problem. He writes:Mankiw: “The problem today, it seems, is that the Federal Reserve has done just about as much interest rate cutting as it can. Its target for the federal funds rate is about zero, so it has turned to other tools, such as buying longer-term debt securities, to get the economy going again. But the efficacy of those tools is uncertain, and there are risks associated with them…”So why shouldn’t the Fed just keep cutting interest rates? Why not lower the target interest rate to, say, negative 3%? At that interest rate, you could borrow and spend $100 and repay $97 next year. This opportunity would surely generate more borrowing and aggregate demand.”The problem with negative interest rates, however, is quickly apparent: nobody would lend on those terms. Rather than giving your money to a borrower who promises a negative return, it would be better to stick the cash in your mattress. Because holding money promises a return of exactly zero, lenders cannot offer less. Unless, that is, we figure out a way to make holding money less attractive.”At one of my recent Harvard seminars, a graduate student proposed a clever scheme to do exactly that. Imagine that the Fed were to announce that, a year from today, it would pick a digit from zero to 9 out of a hat. All currency with a serial number ending in that digit would no longer be legal tender. Suddenly, the expected return to holding currency would become negative 10%. That move would free the Fed to cut interest rates below zero.”People would be delighted to lend money at negative 3%, since losing 3% is better than losing 10%. Of course, some people might decide that at those rates, they would rather spend the money – for example, by buying a new car. But because expanding aggregate demand is precisely the goal of the interest rate cut, such an incentive isn’t a flaw – it’s a benefit. [MF: I think that most people would choose to invest in another country where savings wouldn’t lose 3% per year.]“The idea of making money earn a negative return is not entirely new. In the late 19th century, the German economist Silvio Gesell argued for a tax on holding money. He was concerned that during times of financial stress, people hoard money rather than lend it. John Maynard Keynes approvingly cited the idea of a carrying tax on money. With banks now holding substantial excess reserves, Gesell’s concern about cash hoarding suddenly seems very modern.”Silvio Gesell (1862–1930) was a rather obscure economist, but a cult formed around his more outlandish socialist and land nationalization ideas. He was the author of Die Reformation des Münzwesens als Brücke zum Sozialen Staat (The Reformation of the Monetary System as a Bridge to a Social State – read “socialism”).In fact, I had forgotten about him until Mankiw brought him up, but I remember well how my history teacher in high school – who also had a socialist tick, but was an outstanding historian – discussed him at length in the context of socialism and land reforms through expropriation. (Right throughout the course of history, this has never worked. Also, Gesell’s tax on cash had more to do with soaking the rich than stimulating consumption.)In 1919, Gesell was called to take part in the Bavarian Soviet Republic by Ernest Niekisch. The Republic offered him a seat on the Socialisation Commission and later appointed him as the People’s Representative for Finances. Fortunately (for the world), his term of office lasted only seven days. After the bloody end of the Soviet Republic, Gesell was held in detention for several months and was later acquitted of treason. Unfortunately, he never had the opportunity to read George Orwell’s Animal Farm – published in 1945 – which refuted most of his arguments for a “social state.”Dr. Marc Faber lives in Chiangmai, Thailand and is the author of “Tomorrow’s Gold.”http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig6/faber6.1.1.html

HubbsJune 15th, 2009 at 9:59 am

A “Doh” reminder:If an index is at 100, drops 50%, then it has fallen to 50. If it then rallies 50%, it is onlyback to 75.If jobs keep dropping 100,000 a month, this becomes a greater percentage job loss each month.

MM CAJune 15th, 2009 at 10:09 am

I paid $3.21 for gas this morning in California…. rising Gas prices Will crush ALL “Green Shoots” and stomp them into the ground. If oil goes to $90-$100 expect to pay $5.00 a gallon for gas.Six Flags files Bankruptcy.. Universal Studuios NextExtended Stay America files Bankruptcy… Airlines in trouble, Buisness travel in trouble… other vacation spots and buisness’es in trouble…MLB attendance is tanking….

Little SaverJune 15th, 2009 at 10:31 am

June 15 (Bloomberg) — Commercial banks in the 16-nation euro region may lose a further $283 billion by the end of next year as the financial crisis forces them to write off bad loans, the European Central Bank said.“Hard-to-value assets have remained on bank balance sheets and the marked deterioration in the economic outlook has created concerns about the potential for sizeable loan losses,” the Frankfurt-based ECB said in its June Financial Stability Report today.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9OppHNsK.I4And when will “honest mistake” Timmy give some serious numbers instead of living up to his nickname?

GuestJune 15th, 2009 at 10:42 am

Peter Schiff, who specializes in foreign investments, says above in PROPERTY RIGHTS TAKE A HIT: “The risk that legal contracts can now be arbitrarily set aside [in the US] will make investors think twice before committing capital to distressed corporations. Oftentimes enforcing contracts imposes hardships. That’s precisely why we have contracts.”America’s reversion from a contract society based on the rule of law to one of arbitrary law based on government favoritism and political power is reducing her to a second-rate tin-pot economy.The contrasts of “traditional” versus “modern” society in India, as reported on a National Public Radio feature yesterday, I fear have implications for America’s economic future.A wedding party and guests were in traditional dress as they moved down the street, noted an NPR reporter, but the wafting music that followed them along was nothing less than Ballywood modern. And were the young people with free time gathering with the elders for wedding camaraderie? Nope, they were on the Internet, at Starbucks with a Frappuccino.For India’s traditional side, the NPR reporter found an elderly “Japoti man” and his 19-year-old son squatting in a dirt area under a large tree within a downtown area, making Japoti meals for customers all day long. Japoti, a wheat bread, is baked on the spot and combined with fresh vegetables for a variety of dishes served on metal plates for the equivalent of 30 or 40 cents each.Some of the man’s customers, who sit crosslegged on the ground as they eat, are rickshaw drivers and from them the NPR reporter and his interpreter learned a lot about the Japoti man’s business. The city around them is growing rapidly…big developments, traffic, etc…and the Japoti man is worried he may soon lose his place for cooking the meals. He doesn’t own or rent his spot and he secretly pays health department officials under the table. Policemen who stop by from time to time eat free.A rickshaw driver told NPR he likes the Japoti man’s meals because in the open air one can see the food is fresh and unlike operations where food is pr