Videos from the St Petersburg International Economic Forum
I spent the last weekend in St Petersburg Russia attending the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, a Russian “Davos” that is organized by the Presidency of the Russian Federation (Mr. Medvedev).
I was there a speaker in three separate panels, one a plenary panel on the Post-Crisis Financial Architecture, the second on a Retrospective of World Financial Crises and the third on the New Economic Model and the Long Term Impact of the Crisis.
Videos of my presentations at these three panels are available here online. The first panel, a plenary session, had also among others some interesting presentations by Mr Kudrin (Russian Finance Minister), Vikram Pandit (Citigroup CEO) and John Lipsky (the First Deputy MD at the IMF).
In Russia there is still a continued economic crisis: the recent rally in oil prices and russian stock prices has only marginally improved the outlook of this oil/energy dependent economy.
130 Responses to “Videos from the St Petersburg International Economic Forum”
Benoit • June 9th, 2009 at 7:00 am
firstwhat about S&P future evolution?
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 7:09 am
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124451592762396883.htmlAn interesting breakdown of Obama’s claim of jobs saved. It seems that the claim is purely political maneuver.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 8:48 am
Ten Banks want to pay back the TARP! Big Deal!1)eliminate the FDIC guarantees on your debt2)give the Fed their money and take back the toxic mortgage backed securities3)give the free fed loans back4)suspend the artificial facilitiesTHE SMELL OF CON GAME IS IN THE AIR AND IT IS SUFFOCATING!!!http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asVGy4z9Hoc0THE NORMAL INVESTOR IS BEING ROOKED!
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 8:59 am
What was that that that Obama said again?I hear a distant ocean
JGU • June 9th, 2009 at 9:12 am
Both the good doctor and Paul Krugman were bought by the administration. The good doctor is still pretending he will speak the truth, but Krugman simply starts to dance with them. The good doctor is a smart guy in general, Paul Krugman is a fool I have to say. So much for nobel prize in economics, it should have existed.
JGU • June 9th, 2009 at 9:12 am
it should have never existed.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 9:36 am
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/06/be_it_resolved_14.htmlPredosky does a good job of pulling a comment by John Carney which is very prescient. The banks might as well be GSEs. The financial credit markets are now socialized and we are running financial fascist software to run our economy. The feedback mechanismson the investments of the conned disrupt the investment of the rational. Please read more than what Pedrosky posts. The next couple of paragraphs from Carney are excellent.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 9:48 am
Ah, so it appears Obama the Oracle was just reading re-hashed teleprompt first read by Bush the Liecaster. As John Caruso said in “The Habit of Skepticism,” after analyzing the Obama/Bush Cairo speech:Yes, it was quite a speech. After reading it a second time I think I can almost begin to understand the ecstatic praise so many liberals offered Obama after they heard it (which I admit I first thought was not only embarrassing but dangerously naive). After all, who could fail to respond to such an intelligent, thoughtful, nuanced, articulate, compassionate attempt to begin a genuine dialogue with the rest of the world? Honestly, I think even the most unrepentant leftist reading these words with an open mind would have to admit that they show just how different Barack Obama is in every imaginable way from George W. Bush—and more generally, the huge differences between Democrats and Republicans.There’s just one problem: none of these quotes (cited by Caruso) were actually taken from Barack Obama’s speech. Not a single word. They are quotes from an American president, though. No points for guessing which one at this point, but if you need a hint I can tell you that he was in office from January of 2001 through January of 2009…As these quotes make clear, there’s scarcely a sentiment in Obama’s Cairo speech that wasn’t already spoken by George W. Bush. And yet when Obama offers the same platitudes—sometimes in the exact same words—credulous liberals are seized by fits of swooning and enraptured praise just shy of glossolalia. Obama’s speech wasn’t some epoch-defining moment of transformation from a “transcendent leader”; it was a moment of polished stagecraft from a consummate salesman for American empire and corporate capitalism. It was the same old wine in a lovely new bottle, from someone who’s already shown us repeatedly that his words aren’t matched by his actions. And had it been their arch-nemesis George Bush giving this speech instead of the Anointed One, they’d have had no trouble seeing that.One can only hope that some day these people will embrace the habit of skepticism for all politicians, not just the ones on the other side, and finally and fully accept that fine words alone mean nothing at all—no matter who speaks them.http://www.distantocean.com/2009/06/the-habit-of-skepticism.htmlAs Voltaire said: “It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere.”
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 10:27 am
Good grief. Are we all no more than fools to be tricked by the knaves, else they won’t have enough of our tribute to live on? Says William McGurn here of Barack Obama’s weasel words, of the jobs “saved or created,” of that pure fiction that the administration has no way to measure—”‘Saved or created’ has become the signature phrase for Barack Obama as he describes what his stimulus is doing for American jobs. His latest invocation came yesterday, when the president declared that the stimulus had already saved or created at least 150,000 American jobs — and announced he was ramping up some of the stimulus spending so he could ‘save or create’ an additional 600,000 jobs this summer. These numbers come in the context of an earlier Obama promise that his recovery plan will ‘save or create three to four million jobs over the next two years.’…”Of course, the inability to measure Mr. Obama’s jobs formula is part of its attraction. Never mind that no one — not the Labor Department, not the Treasury, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics — actually measures ‘jobs saved.’ As the New York Times delicately reports, Mr. Obama’s jobs claims are ‘based on macroeconomic estimates, not an actual counting of jobs.’ Nice work if you can get away with it.”McGurn quotes Harvard economist, Greg Mankiw, who calls it a “non-measurable metric.… an act of political genius…”Says Mankiw, “You can measure how many jobs are created between two points in time. But there is no way to measure how many jobs are saved. Even if things get much, much worse, the President can say that there would have been 4 million fewer jobs without the stimulus.”In short, all phony baloney–phony jobs, phony money, phony asset bubbles, phony markets, phony recovery, phony wars, phony politics and phony leadership. How soon until phony food?
Softwarengineer • June 9th, 2009 at 11:14 am
HIGH PRICED OIL NOT ONLY HELPS THE RUSSIANSThink about it, the higher oil gets the more money the Middle East gets and that can mean more food for their massive poor populations living in a sandy land that can grow hardly no food. The terrorists [is that term politically correct? LOL] come from the poor groups and they may likely get fed better with higher oil prices; which means they likely won’t be so grumpy and take it out on America.The grumpy ones are the Americans on “staycations” because the $3 gas is crimping their budget.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
TARP is really just another variation of the game “Monopoly” where bankers such as Goldman Sachs are given an unlimited supply of paper money from the Fed and the taxpayers to grind their opponents into dust and end up owning all the property.These Fed-connected financiers, wiped out by their deriative schemes, used TARP and bailout to make themselves whole again by bankrupting honest competitors and/or forcing them into hostile mergers. They’ve exchanged their toxic waste for solid properties and virtually now control the financial game putting all the rest of us– competitors, savers, homeowners, wage earners, equities and bond investors–at high risk. Those of us they’ve still to bankrupt, those of us who in the end will be unable to meet our debts to these “banks,” will have our properties seized also and auctioned off, to the likes of Goldman.What a joke that these “financiers” are making a big public relations statement that all is well now by returning TARP —that the banking system is whole again evidenced by the fact that the Goldmans are giving back to Bernanke a bit of chump-change. For that matter, who knows if they’ve returned it or not? And who cares? So what if Bernanke, who refuses to say which Goldmans got the trillions he created as their personal heavy financial artillery, erases some of their zeroes, or not? They’ve got the property that Jack built with his sweat and tears; Jack doeesn’t even get a look at Bernanke’s books..The heist is over and we’ve been had.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
U.S. Reporters Sentenced to 12 Years Labor in North KoreaJune 8, 2009 — North Korea has sentenced two American reporters to 12 years of hard labor for allegedly crossing its border with China. The sentencing has deepened the communist country’s dispute with the U.S. over nuclear weapons and missile testing.The reporters, Laura Ling and Euna Lee, were arrested by North Korean soldiers on March 17 near the Chinese border. According to the Associated Press, it is unclear if the reporters had actually crossed into North Korea or if North Korean guards had crossed into China.Ling and Lee are reporters for the Al Gore-affiliated Current TV website and were in China to film a documentary on North Korean refugees. At the time of their arrest, South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency said that the pair “were taken by North Korean soldiers along the Tumen River on the Chinese border while filming the North Korean side.”The pair have now been found guilty by the Central Court in Pyongyang of committing a “grave crime” against North Korea, according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency. They were then each sentenced to 12 years of “reform through labor” in a North Korean prison facility.Little is known for certain about conditions in North Korean prison camps, but South Korean missionary Chun Ki-won told the Associated Press that prisoners “frequently face beatings and other inhumane treatment while being forced to engage in harsh labor.”http://www.thenewamerican.com/world-mainmenu-26/asia-mainmenu-33/1208-us-reporters-sentenced-to-12-years-labor-in-north-korea
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
REAGAN DIDN’T DO IT by Robert ScheerJune 3, 2009 — How could Paul Krugman, winner of the Nobel Prize in economics and author of generally excellent columns in The New York Times, get it so wrong? His column last Sunday—“Reagan Did It”—which stated that “the prime villains behind the mess we’re in were Reagan and his circle of advisers,” is perverse in shifting blame from the obvious villains closer at hand.It is disingenuous to ignore the fact that the derivatives scams at the heart of the economic meltdown didn’t exist in President Reagan’s time. The huge expansion in collateralized mortgage and other debt, the bubble that burst, was the direct result of enabling deregulatory legislation pushed through during the Clinton years.Ronald Reagan’s signing off on legislation easing mortgage requirements back in 1982 pales in comparison to the damage wrought 15 years later by a cabal of powerful Democrats and Republicans who enabled the wave of newfangled financial gimmicks that resulted in the economic collapse.Reagan didn’t do it, but Clinton-era Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers, now a top economic adviser in the Obama White House, did. They, along with then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and Republican congressional leaders James Leach and Phil Gramm, blocked any effective regulation of the over-the-counter derivatives that turned into the toxic assets now being paid for with tax dollars.Reagan signed legislation making it easier for people to obtain mortgages with lower down payments, but as long as the banks that made those loans expected to have to carry them for 30 years they did the due diligence needed to qualify creditworthy applicants. The problem occurred only when that mortgage debt could be aggregated and sold as securities to others in an unregulated market.The growth in that unregulated OTC market alarmed Brooksley Born, the Clinton-appointed head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and she dared propose that her agency regulate that market. The destruction of the government career of the heroic and prescient Born was accomplished when the wrath of the old boys club descended upon her. All five of the above mentioned men sprang into action, condemning Born’s proposals as threatening the “legal certainty” of the OTC market and the world’s financial stability.They won the day with the passage of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, which put the OTC derivatives beyond the reach of any government agency or existing law. It was a license to steal, and that is just what occurred. Between 1998 and 2008, the notational value of the OTC derivatives market grew from $72 trillion to a whopping $684 trillion. That is the iceberg that our ship of state has encountered, and it began to form on Bill Clinton’s watch, not Reagan’s.How can Krugman ignore the wreckage wrought during the Clinton years by the gang of five? Rubin, who convinced President Clinton to end the New Deal restrictions on the merger of financial entities, went on to help run the too-big-to-fail Citigroup into the ground. Gramm became a top officer at the nefarious UBS bank. Greenspan’s epitaph should be his statement to Congress in July 1998 that “regulation of derivatives transactions that are privately negotiated by professionals is unnecessary.” That same week Summers assured banking lobbyists that the Clinton administration was committed to preventing government regulation of swaps and other derivatives trading.Then-Rep. Leach, as chairman of the powerful House Banking Committee, codified that concern in legislation to prevent the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or anyone else from regulating the OTC derivatives, and American Banker magazine reported that the legislation “sponsored by Chairman Jim Leach is most popular with the financial services industry because it would provide so-called legal certainty for swaps transactions. … ”Legal certainty for swaps—meaning the insurance policies of the sort that AIG sold for collateralized debt obligations without looking too carefully into what was being insured and, more important, without putting aside reserves to back up the policies in the case of defaults—is what caused the once respectable company to eventually be taken over by the U.S. government at a cost of $185 billion to taxpayers.Leach, an author of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which allowed banks like Citigroup to become too big to fail, is now a member of the board of directors of ProPublica, which bills itself as “a non-profit newsroom producing journalism in the public interest.” Leach serves as the chair of a prize jury that ProPublica has created to honor “outstanding investigative work by governmental groups,” and perhaps he will grant one retrospectively to Brooksley Born and the federal commission she ran so brilliantly before Leach and his buddies destroyed her.http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20090603_reagan_didnt_do_it/
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
Is Princeton the government’s official resting home for temporarily displaced politicians and economists?According to Wikipedia, James Albert Smith “Jim” Leach is now the John L. Weinberg Visiting Professor of Public and International Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Princeton University.Says Wiki, Leach authored legislation on a range of issues including:· the creation of an international AIDS Trust Fund,· debt relief for the world’s poorest countries,· authorization of an International Monetary Fund quota increase,· making the Peace Corps an independent federal agency,· requiring the federal government to use soy ink,· prohibiting Internet gambling,· restraining federal employee growth, and· redressing certain Holocaust asset losses.”The legislation he is perhaps best known for is the 1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, one of the seminal pieces of banking legislation of the 20th century.”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Leach
tutterfrut • June 9th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Obama reportedly calls for tougher Europe stress testsLONDON (MarketWatch) — The Obama administration wants Europe to conduct tougher stress tests of its banks after conducting similar tests on U.S. institutions, according to a published report on Tuesday.http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-reportedly-to-call-for-eu-stress-testsLong live GLObama! GLObama is our (banker’s) savior!
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
California to eliminate funds for recent contractsSAN FRANCISCO, June 8 (Reuters) – California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, facing a state budget gap of $24.3 billion, on Monday ordered a halt to funding for state contracts on everything from pencils to office space.His order applies to all contracts signed since March 1, excluding those for public safety, and bars new contracts. Projects funded by bonds and federal stimulus dollars are also exempt.The state is expecting the move to generate savings of $1.35 billion, said Amanda Fulkerson, a spokeswoman for California’s State and Consumer Services Agency, which oversees the state’s contracting and purchases.California’s state agencies and departments on average spend about $9 billion each year on goods and services. In the current fiscal year, California entered into 36,498 contracts for goods and services from a variety of companies, including law firms, fuel and computer software providers and consultants of various kinds…Schwarzenegger also wants to restrain future state spending. His order directs state departments to submit to the Department of Finance plans to cut their future spending on contracts and purchases by at least 15 percent no later than 30 days after the state’s 2009-2010 budget becomes law.”Regardless of the fiscal situation, they need to dial back,” said Schwarzenegger spokesman Aaron McLear. “From our standpoint, every California household and business is cutting spending as much as possible. We need to do the same in state government.”Schwarzenegger’s order comes amid rising concern over California’s finances on Wall Street, which has given the state the lowest general obligation debt rating of any U.S. state.http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0832492220090608
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
Tutterfrut, I like you. My first laugh of the day — Long live GLObama!
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Exclusive Interview with Future Prediction Expert Gerald CelenteTerry EastonHumaneventsSat, 06 Jun 2009 22:01 UTCIt’s the end of the world as the Greater Depression hits after 2010′s failed “W-recovery”Human Events had the opportunity to interview forecaster extraordinaire Gerald Celente, President of Trends Research Institute, several days ago — and the future he predicts looks bleak indeed. In fact, as Mr. Celente sees it, the Great Depression will seem like a mild recession as what waits for us in 2011 hits with the force of a Katrina financial hurricane.In case you’re wondering who Mr. Celente is (if this is still possible), he’s appeared — along with his predictions — on Oprah, CNBC, Reuters, NBC, PBS, BBC, the Glenn Beck Show — the list goes on an on. His Trends Report has been successfully predicting the major future trends impacting our lives for 3 decades, including calling the dot com crash back in the 1990′s.Mr. Celente’s forecast on our impending future is based on his study of history. He says we are bent on destroying our currency, bankrupting our government, and unleashing a violent citizen-against-citizen eruption as the economy collapses into chaos and marshal law fascism.Quite a claim. And God help us if he is right — again.”We’re sounding the alarm about the ongoing downward economic cycle”, Gerald told Human Events. “In 2002, we predicted that the collapse of the American empire would fall like the World Trade Center in a thunderous crash — in slow motion before our eyes. And now it’s happening.”Mr. Celente follows over 300 trends: family, crime, war, education, consumer & business patterns which TRI synthesizes to predict the future.”The US is becoming a shadow of what it used to be. Take education for example. The OECD group of developed countries ranks quality of life, education, health care of its member nations. The US is now falling down the table as one piece of data after another shows America is in decline. We’re no longer Win, Place or Show in quality of life, education, longevity… all the essentials where we used to be #1. And our economic underpinnings are failing.”Mr. Celente puts part of the blame squarely on the federal government, and especially FED Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner, and warns us not to believe a word they say “They’re the same people who didn’t see it coming – are now telling us the worst is over, that ‘green shoots are spouting upwards’. But they were wrong before. They’re wrong on this too”.”When you pump out tons of money manure into this system based on nothing – printing press paper, it’s like giving a patient with a chronic disease a pain killer — it won’t cure the patient.”"But let’s go beyond the economics. Our whole Constitution has been abrogated. The president simply writes an Executive Order to do whatever he wants. Nationalize the banks, take over the insurance industry, automobile industry, health care industry…None of it is constitutional.”When did the problem begin?”After Dwight Eisenhower — our last great president — the Allied Supreme Commander in WWII – who warned us of the dangers of the military-industrial complex. We’ve become completely corrupted.”"We became enmeshed in foreign entanglements. We forgot the lesson of England – and how their global imperial overreach destroyed their empire.”Of course, the average American doesn’t think that we’re an empire. We’re not like the classical empires of old – raping, pillaging and stealing the wealth of invaded peoples. What does Mr. Celente have to say about this?”What we’re doing is squandering our wealth, our resources, the genius of our scientists and the future of our children. We’re over-consuming in every way — but under consuming our education and focusing on the quantity, not the quality, of what we’ve built. So much of today’s culture is counter-productive to what American built it’s foundation on — a high-quality producing nation building things, not pushing paper.”And we’ve become not only a consumer society but a low-quality consumer, as well as the most obese society in the world, eating low-quality high-carb, high-fat processed foods.”"We’re now focused on the lowest cost, the lowest common denominator. Not the best and highest quality. We advertise buying cheapest as the most important thing.”Mr. Celente argues that we’ve socially destroyed our productivity and have abandoned it to other countries.”And we have fallen into a moral vacuum. Look at how people used to dress. Smartly. Not like the cheap hoods of today. Fashion now copies the lowest common denominator. Our children wear clothes without belts, and shoes without shoelaces, to copy the styles of the violent criminals — who have these items removed by the police in prison so they can’t be used as weapons. That’s become the fashion statement of today’s youth. Like rap music from the ghetto. We’ve become an underdeveloped nation.”Mr. Celente observes that “people used to think of America as that shining beacon on the hill with ‘liberty and justice for all…’ .” So what happened?”Morality is missing from our American public consciousness. Start with Wall Street. It’s run by a criminal gang. The only question is ‘how much can you make, how much can you steal?’ At the bottom, the welfare recipient says ‘how much can I take?’ And the government is in on the take.”"Morality is absolutely the issue. We had a government where we were taught all our lives that we are a free enterprise system — so we depend on our own strength, our entrepreneurial ideas. The world used to look to us for our innovative spirit.”"This is being destroyed before our eyes. And our government has become more interventionist than any of the old empires could imagine.”"Our society is now based on consumption — 70% of the GDP. This is more than we produce. So to pay our bills, we use funny money invented in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve and the fiat dollar based on credit (debt) — the fractional reserve system. In 1930′s you bought what you could afford. You saved up to buy your home. The easy credit of the 90′s has destroyed the country. Now you borrow what you can’t afford – and the nation’s done the same.”Mr. Celente predicts the use of printing press money will cause the “greater depression”.”I predict continuing deflation of real estate, followed by extreme currency inflation — ultimately becoming worthless. This is why gold is the only honest money — the government can’t counterfeit it. Look for it to top at least $2000 an ounce”"Our unemployment numbers are also bogus. For example, the construction industry is really above 20% , and the government is creating low-level jobs, not real jobs. The US total real unemployment is more like 16%. Before the crisis is over, it will reach 25% – great depression numbers.”"When people have lost everything they have nothing to lose. Violence and crime will explode. Look at the OECD figures. The number of people not graduating from high school is exploding — they’re wacked out on drugs. New York City will look like Mexico City in a few years. The collapse of morality from top down — and especially in the government — makes it inevitable.”"What can we expect in the coming future”, we asked.”Washington has declared ‘Economic Martial Law’. Wall Street is putting Main Street out of business. The key to watch is Christmas sales. They’ll fail. Christmas will be when reality sets in.”"Another trend we wrote about over 2 years ago was the tax revolt. What’s happened? Tax revenues have collapsed by 33%. And the wealthy people are leaving.”"We predict state secessionist movements will rival the breakup of the Soviet Union.”"The only way we can ever recover is to return to individual community, personal responsibility, local government. Next, average will disappear, Quality will return. Look at GM. Junk cars financed by junk bonds. Now owned by a junk government. As a consumer, don’t consume quantity — consume quality.”"How will it all end?”, we queried. Will the dollar survive?”The dot com bubble should have burst and gone away in a short sharp recession. But the boys at the Fed re-inflated the economy by lowering interest rates to a 46 year low — and in turn created the real estate bubble — much bigger than the dot com bubble. “”Now they’re creating the bailout bubble — which will ultimately dwarf the real estate bubble. It will cause the implosion of the global economy world wide — which will not be able to be repaired by creating yet another bubble. Every time the government fails, it tells a bigger lie and then a still bigger lie.”"These previous bubbles were not allowed to pop — but they didn’t destroy the infrastructure of the country. This bailout bubble will.”"But this bubble will be the last one. After the final blowout of the bailout bubble, we are concerned that the government will take the nation into war. This is a historical precedent that’s been done over and over again.”"So, it’s not that the dollar that will survive. We may not even survive. Look at the German mess after WWI. It gave rise to Fascism and WWII. The next war will be fought with weapons of mass destruction.”
tutterfrut • June 9th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
This guy sees the green shoots everywhere, especially in computer hardware, chinese import gardening tools and lightbulbs…http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWu-efNN8PM&feature=player_embedded
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
you better trademark that quick, buddy. the bumper sticker alone will make you a millionaire…
Brett in Manhattan • June 9th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Because Krugman is a partisan hack who can’t see beyond his own ideology. In his mind, it has to be the other side’s fault.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
All I know is I used to be happy here, excited even to live in the land of the free where I had a handle on my life—where I had real choices. I was content to live with the results of those choices, because they were mine.But, now, I feel trapped, almost hopeless. Trapped by a government that uses me as a powerless rabbit to be chased and skinned by financial hunters, and then blocks all the exits. If I put my money in savings it is at high risk; in equities, high risk; in bonds, high risk; in cash, high risk; in a 401(k), high risk; in my home, high risk; in a rental property, high risk; in education, high risk; in small business, high risk; in gold stocks, high risk… And even gold and company pensions are becoming high risk.And all the while, as I and others try harder and harder–spending more time on the internet, reading, researching, attending seminars, listening to Roubini–to make better financial choices, the net worth for most of us deteriorates, going lower and lower along with the level of our hopelessness and despair. At the same time, the ‘investment’ bankers, with their control of the money supply and the Congress, grow richer and richer as they manipulate and control every aspect of our financial lives from their insider positions. Yet, they toil not, neither do they spin.Americans are in a financial box canyon. With all the exits blocked. Either we fight for our very economic survival, and fight to the death to regain the reins of our government—or we will be become as slaves to the moneylenders, in the land our forefathers bequeathed us.Financial life for the average American now rests on a throw of the dice, and the dice are loaded.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
shot green shoots…Eddie Bauer Holdings Said to Prepare for Bankruptcy FilingJune 9 (Bloomberg) — Eddie Bauer Holdings Inc., the U.S. outdoor-clothing chain, may seek bankruptcy protection as soon as this week, according to five people with knowledge of the discussions.Hilco Consumer Capital LLC has expressed interest in bidding on the company’s assets, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks aren’t public. CCMP Capital Advisors LLC, a private-equity firm based in New York, may also make an offer for the retailer, which is being advised by Peter J. Solomon Co., the people said.Eddie Bauer, which opened its first sporting goods store in Seattle in 1920, has reported annual losses for the past three years. The Bellevue, Washington-based company operates about 370 stores in the U.S. and Canada. No final decision has been made about a bankruptcy filing, according to people familiar.Gordon Brothers Group has also held talks with Eddie Bauer, people familiar with the matter said last month. In the past year, Hilco Consumer Capital, which is based in Toronto, and Boston’s Gordon Brothers have purchased defunct retailers such as Sharper Image Corp. and Linens ‘n Things Inc.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQepDRb69OBU
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
I have to say I agree with him on many of his points. I wish I didn’t.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
These “green Shoots” are just like a new born babies poop. Sticky, icky, smelly and green….
economicminor • June 9th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
The TELL will be the tax receipts.If they go up, then his programs are having a positive effect.IF the continue to go down, which is what I expect, then we would have been much better off if they had just sent us the money direct.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
…but you’ll have to use your millions up to buy security when those made desperate come for all the millionaires. How soon? And will they be nicer to the millionaires than the millionaires were to them?
Softwarengineer • June 9th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
I THINK EUROPE IS ABOUT 6-12 MONTHS AHEAD OF AMERICA IN THIS RECESSION/DEPRESSION/STAGFLATION OR WHATEVER THE HADES WE CALL OUR CURRENT ECONOMIC MESSNote this UK news article calls it a “depression”….won’t see that name for it on American mainstream media. Also the blog above refernces a 16% unemployment rate, I believe it was a 16.7% unemployment rate calculated with severely underemployed added in. But……America’s workforce is haunted by a mass new labor class like it never has in past recessions, called contract workers. When contractors are fired, they get no unemployment and the unemployment rate doesn’t count them either….they remind me of unemployed college students and the masses of give-ups, as they aren’t counted either.Check out the UK article on the current economic destruction of Europe, if you’re like me, it will make your hairs stand up on your neck [it sounds too much like present America]:http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2009/06/08/europe_swings_right_as_depression_deepens
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
The nobel prize is no certification of intelligence or intellect. Over the years its become nothing more than a political stunt. There should be no nobel prize for anything other than hard physical sciences. Economics is not a science.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
we are all slaves to our own vibes. We have been a land of plenty at others expense.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 6:04 pm
Hope springs eternal-some of us can’t help ourselves:Fed Gets Subpoena From House Panel on Bank of America (Update1)Share | Email | Print | A A ABy Scott LanmanJune 9 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve was subpoenaed by the House Oversight Committee for e-mails and documents related to Bank of America Corp.’s purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co. after the panel was unable to obtain them through a request last week.The central bank will comply and seeks confidentiality for the information, a Fed official said today on condition of anonymity. The panel said it wants to secure the Fed documents for a hearing scheduled for June 11, and Bank of America Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis has agreed to testify.The move is part of increased congressional scrutiny of the central bank, which helped craft a government aid package enabling Bank of America to absorb Merrill Lynch in January. Lewis told New York state investigators in February that he was pressured in December by Bernanke and former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to complete the Merrill acquisition amid mounting losses at the brokerage firm.“It does sound like the parties aren’t getting along,” said Oliver Ireland, a former Fed counsel who is now a partner at Morrison & Foerster in Washington. It’s “unusual” for Congress to subpoena information on bank supervision from the Fed, he said.The committee served the subpoena today, Jenny Rosenberg, a spokeswoman for the panel, said in a telephone interview. The central bank received the subpoena, the Fed official said.Committee Chairman Edolphus Towns, a New York Democrat, and Ohio Representative Dennis Kucinich, chairman of the domestic policy subcommittee, sent Bernanke a letter this month requesting 43 items, including e-mails from Bernanke and other officials, meeting notes and the Fed’s analysis of the companies’ merger.Withheld DocumentsThe Fed “refused” to provide the documents, resulting in the subpoena, California Representative Darrell Issa, the panel’s senior Republican, said in an e-mailed statement today.In an April letter to Kucinich, Bernanke said the Fed “acted with the highest integrity” during its discussions with Bank of America on Merrill Lynch and didn’t seek to withhold any information from the public on Merrill Lynch’s losses.Bernanke said in the letter that information collected by the Fed up to that point consisted of “confidential supervisory information or confidential business information, both of which have traditionally been regarded as material that should not be made public, especially in the case of institutions that continue to operate.”Ranking RepublicanTowns and Issa agreed to the subpoena today, the panel said.“The marriage between Bank of America and Merrill Lynch was a shotgun wedding pushed by the Federal Reserve,” Issa said in his statement.Bank of America acquired the brokerage on Jan. 1.Bernanke said in February that Bank of America had sufficient time to study its acquisition of Merrill Lynch from September until mid-December, when Lewis asked about canceling the transaction. “We didn’t see any realistic legal way to break the deal,” Bernanke said at the time.Bank of America has sold $45 billion in preferred shares to the U.S., more than any other bank except Citigroup Inc. The bank agreed to a loss-sharing plan with federal regulators in January on $118 billion in assets, mostly involving securities held by Merrill Lynch. Bank of America in May said it is negotiating to end that agreement because improving credit market conditions make the protection unnecessary.
CuriousGeorge • June 9th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
Can you please elaborate on your all caps comment, particularly what the word “ahead” means relative to situation(s). Thank you in advance.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
Yes – we are still being had – but is the heist really over ?Won’t they just keeping going as long and as far as they can, because there is nothing to stop them ?
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 6:58 pm
We have had phony food for quite a while now.Think TWINKIE. We ARE what we EAT !
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
30yrs treasury still dripping blood, still not oversold, still room to drop, and blood letting event will put it below $100, yikes
Spike • June 9th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
Some post here reminded me of this quote from Buffy. It kind of made a point on two sides. The thing is, why can’t people really see who Caesar, etc are, and who the Indians are.”I just can’t take all this mamby-pamby boo-hooing about the bloody Indians. You won. All right? You came in and you killed them and you took their land. That’s what conquering nations do. It’s what Caesar did, and he’s not going around saying, ‘I came, I conquered, I felt really bad about it.’ The history of the world isn’t people making friends. You had better weapons, and you massacred them. End of story.”
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
Krugman may be a prized laureate, but noble he’s not.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
I’d say others have plenty at our expense. Think Goldman
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
Stranger than fiction. As GMT commented today to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard‘s commentary on “Europe Swings Right as Depression Deepens”:”Yes, A Conservative Europe, a capitalist China, and a Socialist America. Amazing isn’t it?”
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
THE HORROR, Bond traders are white with terror | May 29, 2009Gold BattleThrilla in Manila!I want to talk about the bond market today as it relates to gold. And take you into the very real mind of a very real bond trader. Looking at a bond and gold chart is all very interesting if you like watching ivory tower movies. I do. But movies are not the whole picture. Experiencing the market thru the eyes of a real professional bond trader gives you a sensation of reality, in this case a most horrifying reality, that no chart can give you. I’m going to take you into the mind of a major bond trader who is a very good friend of mine.What’s happening in bond land? The latest US govt bond auction was for $110 billion. Two years ago the average monthly bond auction total was $5 billion, $10 billion, numbers like that. The US govt finances its debt with bonds. A $2 trillion deficit means $2 trillion in new bonds needs to be issued. Approx. $200 billion a month.I want to take you inside the mind of a primary dealer. These are the approx. 20 dealers that have contracts with the US govt to market their bonds. The way the deal works in the govt’s mind is: “You buy our bonds and sell them. You can short t-bonds going into the auction and bag a nice profit for yourself. But if you don’t sell the bonds to your clients, guess who owns them? You do! If you don’t like it, no more primary dealing for you, got it? And maybe we aren’t so keen to hand over anymore bailout money or allow fraud accounting of your OTC derivatives. So play ball, or we take you out.”I spent two hours yesterday meeting in person with a very good friend of mine who is retired as the largest govt bond trader in Canada for one of the primary dealers. He still manages $1.5 billion as a side gig. His minimum trade is $5 million. He looks like a pitbull and uses 4 letter words like Mr. Bernanke uses a greenback photocopier. He carefully detailed to me the horrors that began roaring thru the bond market, horrors that are growing, since the shocking $110 billion US govt bond auction was announced for this week.The bottom line is: There isn’t enough money to soak up all the govt paper screaming down the pipe. The $300 billion in total that Mr. Bernanke committed to buy the bonds over multiple auctions, is a drop in the bucket. It’s not enough.There is a daily competition for money in the world’s bond markets. The US govt bond is the King Daddy of those markets. The primary dealers will do WHATEVER IT TAKES to sell those bonds. The primary dealers also carry tremendous power against the govt. Let’s have a listen to their response to the Gman’s “it’s my way or the highway”. Listen carefully. “How would you like it, Mr. Gman, if we announced that ” sorry, we can’t find buyers for your triple A rated toilet paper, we’re going to announce to your public that you defaulted. Let’s see how you do when we cut your credit cards up. You tell us what to do? Wrong. Go ahead, take away our primary dealerships. We’re all standing together on this. We give the orders, not you. Got it?”What might those orders be? One order could be: “Your $300 billion commitment to buy T-bonds ain’t gonna cut it. Try $3 trillion. Now get to your greenback photocopier start button and start pushing it. We’ll tell you when to stop.”While that action may be in the pipeline, as of today the ACTIONS taken in the bond market by the players are what is important. And those actions, believe it or not, are to buy bonds. Money is starting to come out of general equities, aka the stock market, and into bonds. Money is not coming out of bonds, it’s going in. This is what the chartists don’t understand. Money isn’t just trickling in, it’s pouring in. But it’s not enough to meet the govt’s skyrocketing demand for money!The losses in the bond market have pounded bank capital ratios. Balanced funds must now sell stocks and buy bonds to meet their mandated percentages. Losses on corporate bonds bought over the past year are staggering. Many hedge funds leveraged their purchases and are now in dire trouble.I have warned you all repeatedly about taking delivery of a portion of your stock certificates. Securing your gold. Holding 1 to 12 months expenses cash outside the banking system.The bond market auction was this week. Again, I want you to FEEL what the bond traders are feeling. They are white with terror. They aren’t looking at some chart in internet candyland, they know there isn’t enough money to buy all the govt bonds.Where we appear to be headed is for a test of the Dow lows. You had better pray those lows hold. Because if they don’t, your money could become a target of the govt as its demand for money skyrockets, while the supply of money tanks. The ideal situation is a fast crash towards those lows with perhaps either the Dow transports or the industrials breaking, but not both. While that happens, the bond market must rally.The nightmare situation is the Dow just slowly rolls down, and bonds mount no major rally. If both the Dow transports and the industrials break the lows, the global banking and brokerage system will likely be closed soon after that, the first of many such closes. Short selling would likely be banned. A national sales tax would be simply one of a zillion money grabs.I do things in moderation. If the Dow industrials and transports break the lows, I would seriously consider moving 5% of your IRA and 401k money out and into physical gold on the next correction in gold. Looking back, you should have bought gold bullion in a pyramid formation instead of opening IRA and 401k accounts. It’s too late to turn that clock back. It’s a small number, but you may not need that much insurance than 5% given the magnitude of the dangers at hand. Nothing is fixed. Nothing is repaired.If Ben Bernanke fails to drastically increase the Fed’s purchases of bonds, another vortex of asset destruction is a near certainty, as the primary dealers will exert mindblowing pressure on the managers of other assets to move those assets into bonds. Some of the movement is being triggered automatically thru asset allocation algorithms. Let me repeat: money IS not just moving into bonds now, it is POURING in. But… that money is not enough to soak up all the bonds the govt is issuing.Most money managers are only just this week starting to understand this reality. And what kind of horrific situation this is. If Mr. Bernanke steps forward and announces massive new bond purchases, that could disintegrate the USdollar and send gold to $1200 in weeks or even days. On the other hand, if he doesn’t, the primary dealers have no choice but to order a massive liquidation of equity and commodity assets to feed the Gman’s maniacal demand for money. Picture a black hole. Everything is being sucked into it. That is the US govt’s demand for money. This week’s announcement of the $110 billion auction is literally seen by the bond traders as announcing that a real black hole has opened up on a sandy beach. EVERYTHING is slowly being sucked in. Even the sand. And it is accelerating fast in a massive deflationary vortex. As the govt gets the money, it is BURNED. As the sand (and people) pour down the hole, even gold could get sucked in as everything is sold to feed the Gman. Here’s the gold chart, the weekly. The chart looks phenomenal. Indicators almost all right in the middle “sweet spot.” Perfect to activate the head and shoulders.Sadly, the massive increases in the commercial short positions of gold and other commodities over the past few weeks suggest it could be the deflationary vortex that emerges the victor of this clash of the titans. Will gold soar or melt? I wouldn’t bet 10 cents on one scenario exclusively over the other. I want my subscribers to be 100% prepared for any and all scenarios. Remember the tools Mr. Bernanke has laid out. After the purchase of the t-bonds fails, (and it is badly failing right now) the next step is gold revaluation. If you think the United States govt is going to stand around like a wet noodle while their t-bonds are liquidated and watch all “their” money pour into gold without taking action to prevent that, please report to your new home on Fantasy Island. And don’t expect there to be any gold there for you when you arrive. Own gold stocks bought into weakness and take delivery of a portion of your certificates. Own gold jewellery. Secure your gold before the govt secures it for you. Jim “Mr. Big” Sinclair, the world’s largest trader of gold in the last bull market, feels gold could begin a skyrocket move to 1200, within 3 weeks! Jim “Mighty Man” Rogers feels gold could fall to 700! The bottom line right now is the bond market will decide the victor. The good news is Mighty Man will be a buyer at 700 if it happens. If he is correct, another massive wave of asset destruction is just around the corner, one that could require in excess of $50 trillion in money printing to cover the announced otc derivatives losses that will probably follow. The IMF may have no choice but to start a massive liquidation of its gold very quickly if the bond market doesn’t reverse. They have no money and they may be enlisted to buy US govt debt. This is the clash of the titans and the public, who has just loaded up on stocks in time to be killed, is on the verge of being totally obliterated. Regardless of which way this plays out. Ironically, as money pours out of other assets to buy US govt bonds to feed US Gman Friar Tuck, it could have the effect of a giant short position on the USD being unwound, triggering a massive USD rally. The scenarios for huge price movements in all the major markets in all kinds of directions is arguably stronger right now than ever in financial history!This is the ultimate nail biter, the Financial Thrilla in Manila! Will it be Jim Sinclair’s bull rocket, or Jim Rogers’ sledgehammer? I’d like to leave you with an even bigger question for the weekend, and that is:Are You Prepared?May 29, 2009Stewart ThompsonGraceland Updatespdateswebsite: http://www.gracelandupdates.comehttp://economicedge.blogspot.com/200…hite-with.html
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 8:14 pm
New Global Economy:”The recent quantum leap in the ability of transnational corporations to relocate their facilities around the world in effect makes all workers, communities and countries competitors for these corporations’ favor. The consequence is a “race to the bottom” in which wages and social conditions tend to fall to the level of the most desperate.”Jeremy Brecher, historian and authorCorporate watch:”What we have is not a market economy. It is a corporately planned and controlled economy.”"We have a world in which a handful of corporations, dettached from any link to any place or community, have extended their power beyond the reach of most governments.”"The U.S. has a centrally-planned economy, in many ways more tightly controlled than any state-planned economy that we have seen.”"The political system … [is] enormously expensive. The only way you can raise the money to win an election is by appealing to corporate interests, which then means you’re in their debt and have to focus on their agendas.”David Korten, economist and internationalistControlling Corporations:”We must find new lands from which we can easily obtain raw materials and at the same time exploit the cheap slave labor that is available from the natives of the colonies. The colonies would also provide a dumping ground for the surplus goods produced in our factories.”Cecil Rhodes, 1853-1902, British imperialist who founded Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe)
PeteCA • June 9th, 2009 at 8:15 pm
Looks like something is going to happen soon. Volume on the Dow ($INDU) has really been petering out quite markedly. Not surprising – given that $INDU has climbed to its 200-day moving average. Sure looks like a lot of investors don’t believe that a significant breakout above that level is likely.Much more interesting is what’s happening with the yield curve. Take a look at yields on 2-year notes by seeing $UST2Y. There has been a very sudden jump during the first week of June.What does it all mean? Well if people are selling out of the credit market and planning to go into stocks – you’d never know it by the decreasing volume on $INDU. It sure points in the direction that investors plan to go elsewhere. And it raises significant questions about whether global investors who have been buying US debt have finally decided to march to a different drummer. Remember, many of these people were already buying short-term debt because of fears about the long-term credit status of Uncle Sam. Have they now decided that even short-term prospects look grim (and/or that the future of the US dollar is not a pretty picture).Should be interesting to see where this all goes.PeteCA
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
“For centuries, pillage by invading armies – was a normal part of warfare…. Nowadays, at least in more civilized countries, we do not let armies rampage for booty. We leave the pillaging to men in suits, and we don’t call it pillaging anymore. We call it economic development.” Brian Whitaker, The Guardian
FlyOnTheWaLLStreet • June 9th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
WOW ! What’s this film rated?
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
I know that A E-P (mis-)uses the word Socialist. Facist is accurate though.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
Federal Reserve Hiring Lobbyist for Political War by Thomas R. Eddlem | June 9, 2009Quote:The Federal Reserve caused the current economic crisis by suppressing interest rates and creating the housing bubble, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, Euro Pacific Capital president Peter Schiff, and others have charged. And now there’s finally been enough political push-back for the damage the Federal Reserve has wreaked that the Fed will be hiring a lobbyist.The Federal Reserve’s choice of lobbyist is Johns Hopkins University Vice President Linda Robertson, who serves in a public relations role at the medical school. Robertson served as an aide on Capitol Hill in the House of Representatives. She served throughout the Clinton administration as a senior advisor to three treasury secretaries, and won the Treasury Department’s highest award, the Alexander Hamilton award. Her partisan service in the Clinton administration could be a sign that the Fed will tie its future to the Democratic Party, which is currently in charge of both legislative chambers of Congress and the White House.Robertson has experience lobbying for another Ponzi scheme besides the Federal Reserve, but it is not something she’d likely want to boast about. Bloomberg.com reveals that she “headed the Washington lobbying office of Enron Corp., the energy trading company that collapsed in 2002 after an accounting scandal.” Not surprisingly, Robertson’s Johns Hopkins biography omits her lobbying efforts on behalf of Enron.Could the Fed be anticipating an Enron-style collapse? The political tides seem to favor a political debacle for the Fed, and even some former Fed officials are realizing it. “Some members of Congress think there are votes in attacking the Fed” after it “unnecessarily and unwisely entangled monetary policy with fiscal policy,” former St. Louis Fed President William Poole told Bloomberg.com.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 9:26 pm
I’m surprised that something has not already happened. I underestimated the FED and Treasury gimmicks and printing press. Is it possible both the bond and stock markets crash at the same time?
Confucius • June 9th, 2009 at 9:50 pm
May you live in interesting times, Pete.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 9:55 pm
may be this will tank both equity and bond markethttp://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090610/pl_nm/us_usa_healthcare_congress_8
jugglincds • June 9th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
just the “expectation” that the system (stimulus/propaganda/green shoots/debt/smooth talkin CNBN presenters.. etc etc) will fail is enough to crash everything..the Question is, how do TPTB react to thisusually it means war, but with various WMD i dont see it as a plausible alternativeMaybe God will provide us the solution?? Super Solar Storm 2012 ala Carrington Event
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
@ MM CAHere is the visual you have been waiting to see.Click the play button and watch the Green turn to Red.http://tipstrategies.com/archive/geography-of-jobs/
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 10:05 pm
The Americans voted for change, and didn’t get it. Now the Europeans have voted for change. Will they get it?Here’s where the rubber hits the road.
Jason B • June 9th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
The FED and Treasury have painted themselves into a corner. Amost every intervention they do now has negative consequences. Buy long dated treasuries to keep the rate rate low? Then they will have to buy them all, at that price. Print more money to support the economy? The banks just keep it, but it raises inflation expectations. I’m suprised it has lasted this long. I won’t be suprised if it goes on longer than I think it can either. I’m guessing not past September, but who can tell?
kilgores • June 9th, 2009 at 10:44 pm
Great quote. You’ve gotta love Voltaire….SWK
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
Bah. Evans-Pritchard is always portraying other advanced economies as more in misery (or at least “equally much”) than US or UK. He is a man of political drivel. Irrelevant.It is obvious that US has taken by far the biggest hit in this, and UK is not that far behind. Eurozone is in trouble only because of its banks – and its banks were in trouble only because they invested in USA – not because of domestic reasons.Yes this is an “international recession”. What else? Any time US and UK is in trouble or need to invade some other country, the reason is some “international” problem. blah blah blah.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 11:05 pm
Besides the situation on grassroot level Eurozone is currently in fact very much better than grassroot level USA. Likewise even Australia is a lot better than USA, on that level. But you would not hear that from Evans-Pritchard – investors might lose their faith in US and UK.
Guest • June 9th, 2009 at 11:20 pm
I’ll take a stab at how I read softengineer’s CAPs. The answer, in part, can be found in Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s article, and in some of the quotes that follow in the comment section. It’s apparent Europeans have been pushed to the brink of financial and cultural collapse and are fighting for their very survival. Scandal, cabinet members jumping ship, immigration coming to a head, joblessness and backlash against bank bailouts are becoming intolerable. Europeans want and voted these past few days for change. America is more isolated, was more capitalistic and therefore implosion has been slower. But, Americans also voted for change in 2008, albeit so far they haven’t gotten it. Reaction already is setting in.Here are some tellling quotes from E-P’s article on election results, “Europe swings right as depression deepens”:* The establishment Left had been crushed across most of Europe, just as it was in the early 1930s.* It is not clear why a chunk of the blue-collar working base has swung almost overnight from Left to Right, but clearly we are seeing the delayed detonation of two political time-bombs: rising unemployment and the growth of immigrant enclaves that resist assimilation.* Unemployment in Germany may reach 5m by the end of 2010, according to the five ‘wise men’, even if recovery comes on schedule.* In Ireland — now crucifixion laboratory for the EMU, and downgraded again today to AA by S&P — the ruling Fianna Fail was reduced to three seats in the European Parliament. It is the party’s worst defeat since the creation of the Republic. Premier Brian Cowen cannot be long for this world either.* As for Gordon Brown, I can only say that having derided UKIP as fringe losers, his attempt to cling to top office after UKIP trounced him is quite astonishing.And these randomlly selected comments from bloggers:* Isn’t it all much more simple? People know that the EU is an undemocratic unelected gravy train because they can see the likes of failed politicians like Kinnock and his family raking it in and because I have been handing out leaflets telling them so for 15 years (it started with ‘keep the pound’ many years ago). They can also see that we are an overcrowded Island and they don’t want any more people to come here because they would quite like some green space left for their Grandchildren. However that may be interpreted by the middle class socialists running everything, probably as racist, that is the reality of what many people feel. British people are not fools and Labour should stop treating us as such. Not to mention the mess of education, crime, health, you name it…….No one needs a degree in politics to understand why the people of Europe are leaning right and the people of the other members of the EU will be much more radical and unforgiving than the apathetic British* Tonight, Labour alienated more of their core voters, in my opinion. Playing tribal politics may save their pay cheques at taxpayers’ expense for a little while longer, but seeing them take more in yearly expenses than the average UK wage is repugnant to the poor, decent working class they claim to represent. Those same poor, but decent people who refused to vote, and the newcomers who voted BNP.* The govt’s of UK and Europe’s chickens are coming home to roost.They have ignored and trod over the will of the people for too long. Hopefully the coming collapse will be followed by an implementation of something more akin to a true democracy. Who knows, leaders may even be forced listen to the people’s chosen views via referenda.Meanwhile be sure to have plenty tinned food and candles to hand. This credit crunch still has much more bite* [V]oters are concerned by the expansion of the unelected Brussels machine with no chance to voice their opinions. Thus, they do it now. They know that the EU is a leftist, centralist institution.* The electon of the “far right” is a shot across the bows of the mainstream parties. If they continue to ignore the citizens of Europe then next time it could be worse…for a lot of people. If I were an immigrant, social engineer etc I would be worried…very worried. The voter has had enough so they turn to the only parties that say the “right” things. Sadly the mainstream parties have confused what they want with what the voter wants.* The total mismanagement of the immigration issue by European policy makers and they way the EU tried to stop our government when this was trying to take actions against the hundreds of boats coming from Northern Africa every year has turned Italy, a traditionally europhile country, into an angry, eurosceptic and often intolerant beast.The EU messed up royally.* I am delighted at this news. IF it leads to the breakup of this EU monstrosity, all the better. If we can get back to trading as before with the Commonwealth and some trade pact with Europe, better still. One lives in hopes.
J • June 9th, 2009 at 11:46 pm
hmmmpphh i take my words backhttp://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1089550.html’Proud Hungarians must prepare for war against the Jews’By Yehuda Lahav”Given our current situation, anti-Semitism is not just our right, but it is the duty of every Hungarian homeland lover, and we must prepare for armed battle against the Jews.”This quote appeared in a newsletter published by an organization calling itself “The trade union of Hungarian police officers prepared for action”.Hungarian law allows police officers to organize in trade unions of their own. The union – by its own definition – aims to protect the professional interests of those unionized, and not to partake in political activity.However, the law does not prevent the union from distributing a newsletter, the content of which is at the discretion of its editor, and its editor alone.
屌你老母西克魯格曼 • June 9th, 2009 at 11:59 pm
諾奬學者克魯格曼:美有望九月前擺脫衰退【新華社倫敦電】諾貝爾經濟學奬得主保羅·克魯格曼周一表示,美國經濟可能在今年九月份之前擺脫衰退。克魯格曼在倫敦經濟學院發表演講時說,“如果美國經濟衰退在今年夏季某個時間結束,我不會感到驚訝。經濟狀況惡化的速度放緩,有理由認為形勢正在穩定。”根據在美國界定商業周期(衰退和擴張)的權威機構——全國經濟研究局(NBER)的說法,美國經濟自○七年十二月開始陷入衰退。NBER下屬商業周期測定委員會主席羅伯特·霍爾上周表示,現在說經濟衰退已經結束還為時尚早。克魯格曼還指出,儘管美國經濟有望在夏季擺脫衰退,但“幾乎可以確定的是,失業率還會在一段較長的時期內繼續上升”。根據美國勞工部最新公佈的數據,五月份美國失業率從四月份的8.9%升至9.4%,為25年多來的最高點。
Brian • June 10th, 2009 at 12:00 am
If people sell both stocks and bonds, they raise cash in the form of actual dollars. Dollars held for short duration would normally be placed in short-dated treasuries.If you mean can both the short-end and long-ends of the yield curve crash at the same time as the stock market, I think the question would be systemically then, what happens to the dollars?Yields would rise on the short-end of the curve, so dollars would need to be afraid of devaluation that exceeds the higher short-end yields in a short-term interval (like 30 days). That implies a dollar correction in a brief time-span.So, my terse analysis is that a simultaneous crash of stock and bond markets implies a US dollar crash. Under that scenario, we could see oil, gold and other currencies rise sharply as stocks and bonds tank. I don’t think such a situation is sustainable, though. This wave of crashes would leave actual dollars in the hands of those who sold those assets. Those dollars would need to go somewhere, and after the “hot potato” was passed around for the duration of the crash, the devalued dollars would find a home in the form of wiping out the dollar debt of foreign banks and commercial borrowers, followed by reinvestment into stocks and/or bonds.I guess my short answer then is yes, I think that both markets could fail at the same time, but the pressure needs to be relieved somewhere. My long answer is that the pressure gets relieved in a dollar devaluation that ends up resulting in a nominal increase in one or both of the markets, with a true value decrease (due to hyperinflation) in one or both markets.–Brian
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 12:15 am
After every election, of course, everyone knows why the voters voted as way they did.But it looks to me that the driving issue behind the European vote was bank bailouts.I come to this conclusion because of the wholesale switch across all borders. This sweep says to me, that more than immigration, more than Brussels and the European Union, and even more than joblessness, that it was the governments’ continued bailouts of the financials, the wholesale giving of the people’s money to the bankers, that turned the political tide, that triggered the sweep from Left to Right.This was a tsunami, a wave that went across all these countries. It had one thing in common–antagonism against the socialist governments and their central banks for their financial policies, for kowtowing to the financial industry, for holding down interest rates and driving up inflation to get the banks back on their feet, for their bailing out of the perpetrators that caused this economic meltdown, all at the expense of the innocent, the people.All the other issues have been eroding support for the Left over the years—the unchecked immigration, the EU centrist government, the Brussels decision-making without input from the people… But that doesn’t explain this massive overnight jump. What explains it, IMO, is billions in banker bailouts while the nations are in recession, while the people are losing their jobs and not getting raises, while their utilities are going up, their petrol’s going up, their home equity’s going down, their small businesses are struggling and while, at the same time in Britain, Goldman Sachs is paying its City bankers multimillion-pound bonuses – despite receiving emergency bailout from the U.S. government as their ‘rewards for failure,’ and despite Gordon Brown’s £500billion bailout of the UK banking industry.People on both sides of the Atlantic are getting a big dose of the culture of greed and class differences, and they don’t like it.
Paul K • June 10th, 2009 at 12:18 am
I said you are fine.
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 12:20 am
TWINKIES?
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 12:21 am
They will. But they’re running up against the economy, and believe it or not, it’s bigger than they are.
Greeen pan • June 10th, 2009 at 12:39 am
i already told you i have been right.
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 12:39 am
Fed’s Dollar Lie Called Out by Victorious Merkel:Commentary by Amity ShlaesJune 9 (Bloomberg) — The capitalist U.S. is nationalizing its biggest automaker, even as it pretends not to do so. Europe, for its part, is moving right.This week’s elections for the European Parliament are an example of Europe’s new mood. In Germany and France, voters supported incumbent conservative or centrist parties. In Spain and the U.K., they punished center-left parties that are at the helm. All over, the left got trounced.“Social Democrats get hammered for their belief that the voter honors throwing taxpayer money at failing corporations,” Wilfried Prewo told me by e-mail. He is chief executive of the Hannover Chamber of Industry and Commerce, which represents an area of Germany that includes Volkswagen’s home.Days before the vote, German Chancellor Angela Merkel complained publicly that the European Central Bank had bowed to international pressure to buy up assets, mimicking the U.S. She disapproves of the Federal Reserve’s dumping of cash into the global economy…http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aHPOojUS91eQ
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 12:43 am
if that is the case than why u cry foul when n korea or iran are developing “better weapons”.
London Banker • June 10th, 2009 at 1:33 am
Hey, Rich/MA! This one’s for you, Chainsaw!I’ve got a new populist economics hero – and he’s not a happy camper . . .http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NWFA6g2x-4&feature=player_embeddedIf he’s got a lot of friends with as much information and as much resentment, America is in for some very interesting changes ahead.
Jason B • June 10th, 2009 at 5:23 am
In my experience, he does have friends with not only as much information and resentment, but rifles and handguns.
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 6:10 am
Sounds a bit like “The emperoe and his new clothes” story.
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 6:30 am
And the significance of your post to this thread is what???
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 6:41 am
wonder how many cars were sold in USA during May 2009?According to this article:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aYJ3MyMZbA2k&refer=china…in China 829,100 were sold during last month. Maybe that is why GM is doing well there while they are sucking cash from the US government.
MM CA • June 10th, 2009 at 6:44 am
TY I have seen that before- tells quite the story. Obama should do one with “all the jobs” he has saved/created. Sad to say there are NO JOBS and TOTAL WAGE DESTRUCTION is in full bloom. The may jobs numbers were horrific in spite of what the PTB are saying. Summer will bring the onslaught of all the lost auto dealership jobs and trickle down from that, lsot auto parts supplier jobs and lost Chryslar and GM jobs. Not to mention coming layoffs of state and local workers in various states, Teacher jobs,…Someone please tell me an industry that is hiring besides the small gians in health care? And with gas hovering at almost 3.00 and possibly going higher ths summer we are set up for a repeat of last sept/oct but only on a much larger scale of pain and economic destruction. high gas last year started the chain of events we have been living and its no coincidnece that Jobs started disappearing at the same time as high gas.
MM CA • June 10th, 2009 at 6:52 am
Remember last week’s jobs report–the one that started the market buzzing about a V-shaped recovery? Well, according to Harvard economist Jeff Frankel, it wasn’t so great, after all.Instead of focusing on changes in actual jobs to measure the strength of the labor market, Frankel focuses on “hours worked.” He does this because companies under pressure often reduce hours and overtime before they cut jobs. Similarly, when the economy turns up, companies often start adding hours and overtime before they start hiring. Thus, total hours worked provides a more real-time view of the state of the economy.And how did total hours worked look in May? Lousy. Specifically, according to Frankel, they did not suggest any sort of a turn in the labor market.Total hours worked is equal to the total number of workers employed multiplied by the average length of the workweek for the average worker. The length of the workweek tends to respond at turning points faster than does the number of jobs. When demand is slowing, firms tend to cut back on overtime, and then switch to part-time workers or in some cases cut workers back to partial workweeks, before they lay them off. Conversely, when demand is rising, firms tend to end furloughs, and if necessary ask workers to work overtime, before they hire new workers. (The hours worked measure improved in April 1991 and November 2001 which on other grounds were eventually declared to mark the ends of their respective recessions.) The phenomenon is called “labor hoarding” and it is attributable to the costs of finding, hiring and training new workers and the costs in terms of severance pay and morale when firing workers.Unfortunately, as reported by Forbes, pursuing this logic leads to second thoughts about whether the most recent BLS announcement was really good news after all. The length of the average work week fell to its lowest since 1964 ! The graph below shows that, not only did total hours worked decline in May, but the rate of decline (0.7%) was very much in line with the rate of contraction that workers have experienced since September. Hours worked suggests that the hope-inspiring May moderation in the job loss series may have been a monthly aberration. If firms were really gearing up to start hiring workers once again, why would they now be cutting back as strongly as ever on the hours that they ask their existing employees to work? My bottom line: the labor market does not quite yet suggest that the economy has hit bottom.Charts at: http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-may-jobs-report-not-so-great-after-all-2009-6
Giraf • June 10th, 2009 at 6:55 am
Pete, I think the answer is the back up in Fed Fund futures. There’s been some talk, which I have trouble believing, that the Fed will start to tighten as soon as August. At the end of May, the December FF contract was pricing in about a 0.3% FF rate. By last Friday, it had “surged” to 0.56% but by last night had moved back to 0.43%.2 year Treasuries were yielding just under 1% at the beginning of June. In an environment of anticipated FF rate increases, they are (were) hugely expensive.
MM CA • June 10th, 2009 at 7:03 am
The financial mess has now gotten to a point where Wall Street veterans are starting to speak out and question why the Obama administration does what it does, and how much longer it thinks it can continue doing it.Sandy B. Lewis and William D. Cohan make clear in the New York Times that they have no confidence in the policies conducted so far, since they are based on deeply flawed assumptions about what is wrong in the first place, and the loudly promised and much touted transparency Obama couldn’t stop talking about not so long ago is nowhere to be found. Lewis and Cohan pose a series of queries. They start off addressing the part the public has unwittingly been cast in:Why is so much effort being put into propping up those at the top of the economic pyramid — the money-center banks, the insurance companies, the hedge funds and so forth — when during a period of deflation like the one we are in, any recovery will come only by restoring the confidence of the people down at the bottom of the pyramid?… what is the plan to get the American people out of all these equity stakes we now own and don’t want?Soon, though, they move towards the more sinister part: the utter lack of openness surrounding all the trillions used to bail out broke banks and carmakers:As for those impossibly complex securities that caused so much of the trouble — among them derivatives, credit-default swaps and asset-backed securities — the S.E.C. should have the power to make public all the documentation surrounding these weapons of mass financial destruction, including all data about the current costs of buying and selling them and the cash flow underlying them.Why is the government still complicit in making the system ever less transparent, even when it comes to what should clearly be considered public information? For instance, it took more than a year for the Federal Reserve to disclose that it had agreed to pay BlackRock — the huge money manager that is 45 percent owned by Bank of America — and others $71 million in a no-bid contract to manage the $30 billion of toxic assets that JPMorgan did not want when it bought Bear Stearns in March 2008. And that is only one of the five contracts BlackRock has with the government as a result of this crisis — the nature of the other contracts remains secret.And what has become of the S.E.C.’s year-old investigation into who made short-dated, out-of-the-money bets in March 2008 hoping Bear Stearns would fail — bets that were suddenly worth millions of dollars when the company did collapse later that month? Why do we still not know why Mr. Paulson, Mr. Geithner and the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, allowed Lehman Brothers to file bankruptcy last Sept. 15 but then, a day later, saved A.I.G.?Or why last November this trio decided to absorb potential losses on $301 billion of Citigroup’s shaky assets, when conventional wisdom among insiders held that they were worth only $150 billion at best? Also, before Dick Fuld, Lehman Brothers’ chief executive, appeared before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform last October, it demanded from company executives boxes of documents about what happened at Lehman and why. Where are those documents?Still, Lewis and Cohan, critical as they may be, refuse to put into words what should be evident: the present administration has no intention whatsoever of opening up any book, or investigate who did what on Wall Street. The few executives who have been forced out are simply those who fell out of favor, not the most inept or suspicious figures. Bernie Madoff will be victimized and hung out to dry, but the extent of his crime and the names inside his network will be kept secret. The same will be true of Tangelo Mozilo, who could potentially drag down with him scores of financiers and politicians, but won’t be allowed to. In the end, Lewis and Cohan elect to lose themselves in what can only be called rhetorical propositions to provide clarity; rhetorical because they don’t (re-) present a chance in hell.Why hasn’t President Obama insisted on public hearings over what happened during this financial crisis? [..] There may be a way to find out. There is much talk nowadays coming from top bankers [..] about seeing how quickly they can repay to the Treasury the TARP money Mr. Paulson forced on them. One precondition of their being allowed to repay the funds should be a requirement that each gives a public deposition and explains, under oath, what truly happened and why.We are in one of those “generational revolutions” that Jefferson said were as important as anything else to the proper functioning of our democracy. We can no longer pretend that our collective behavior as a nation for the past 25 years has been worthy of us as a people. Many of us hoped that Barack Obama’s election would redress the dire decline in our collective ethic. We are 139 days into his presidency, and while there is still plenty of hope that Mr. Obama will fulfill his mandate, his record on searching out the causes of the financial crisis has not been reassuring.At least their conclusion there is spot on. Unfortunately, the next line is not:He must do what is necessary to restore the American people’s — and the world’s — faith in American capitalism and in our nation.Sorry, guys, but that can and will never be restored, there’s no going back, partly because it lost all credibility, partly because it lost its manufacturing base, and partly because it lost all of its money.And even if, a decade or two from today, and after unspeakable hardship for most Americans, economic fundamentals could be restored to a degree, the nation would integrally lack the energy sources required to rebuild even a semblance of what it once was.Michael Lewis has fewer ideals left; he seems content just calling a stone a -conflicted- stone:”…one of the things that’s odd about the current situation is that the people who created the problem are so powerful in deciding what the solution to the problem is going to be. There is a great tradition on Wall Street of making a fortune, creating a mess, and then making a fortune cleaning it up. But to do it on this scale is breathtaking to me.And it is amazing to me the degree to which, say, Goldman Sachs is intertwined with the Treasury, and how they’re — there don’t seem to be any independent voices in the thick of the decision-making. The decision-making is all being done by people who one way or another might expect to make a lot of money from Goldman Sachs in the future…So, on a grander scale, if I’m Tim Geithner and I’m the secretary of the treasury, what do you think he’s going to do when he stops being secretary of the treasury? His natural next step is go work in the financial sector…”Well, maybe “conflicted” is a term that doesn’t even make it to the Capitol/Street revolving door vocabulary anymore, maybe it all does seem normal:… the directors of the last three — let’s see, three of the last four or four of the last five directors of enforcement of the SEC work for big Wall Street banks now… And you can just assume, I think, that if you’re a prominent person at the SEC, your exit strategy is to get a lot of money from a Wall Street firm. And nobody says anything about it. That’s the amazing thing. It’s not even thought scandalous. It’s just thought normal. It’s like a natural career — a step in a financial career.There will come a day, though it will come far, far too late, when the fact that this is not merely some financial crisis will be evident to many of us. That realization may well coincide with the one that spells out that if the only people capable of understanding and fixing a highly flawed system, mired in behavior on both sides of the line that defines criminal acts, are the ones that designed it, that whole system needs to be discarded. Which is the precise opposite of what we do now. In other words: we have a long way to go, and it won’t be a pleasant ride.http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/
MM CA • June 10th, 2009 at 7:10 am
Wall Street Made This Mess And Is Making Fortune Cleaning It Up (VIDEO)http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/07/michael-lewis-wall-street_n_212340.htmlMichael Lewis, the former Salomon Brothers trader who wrote “Liar’s Poker” about the excesses of Wall Street during the 1980s, delivered a devastating critique of the financial industry and of the government bailout today on CNN”s “Fareed Zakaria GPS.”Lewis thinks that the government’s rescue efforts have only served to postpone a “day of reckoning” for Wall Street:I think that we are in for another day of reckoning down the road. I just don’t know when it is.I think that they haven’t even properly evaluated the institutions.They haven’t been honest about what these institutions have on their books. They’ve had phony stress tests.So, we’re in a kind of, I think, right now, in a period where there’s a false sense that it’s over, that the crisis is passed. I don’t think the crisis is passed.
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 7:11 am
This guy has subscribers? Maybe I should start a letter!
MM CA • June 10th, 2009 at 7:14 am
Obama Jobs Update (aka NO JOBS)Excuse my cynical self, but isn’t this something that should already be known? Why the separate announcement? I remember a February promise of 3.5 million jobs iover two years. 150,000 so far in 4 months ain’t going to do that trick.Obama promises more than 600,000 stimulus jobsPresident Barack Obama promised Monday to deliver more than 600,000 jobs through his $787 billion stimulus plan this summer, with federal agencies pumping billions into public works projects, schools and summer youth programs. Obama is ramping up his stimulus program this week even as his advisers are ramping down expectations about when the spending plan will affect a continuing rise in the nation’s unemployment.Many of the stimulus plans that Obama announced Monday already were in the works, including hundreds of maintenance projects at military bases, about 1,600 state road and airport improvements, and federal money states budgeted for 135,000 teachers, principals and school support staff. The administration had always viewed the summer as a peak for stimulus spending, as better weather permitted more public works construction and federal agencies had processed requests from states and others. But Obama now promises an accelerated pace of federal spending over the next few months to boost the economy and produce jobs.”We have a long way to go on our road to recovery but we are going the right way,” Obama said in a written statement prepared for his public announcement of the additional summer stimulus activity. “Our measure of progress is the progress the American people see in their own lives. And until that progress is steady and solid, we’re going to keep moving forward. We will not grow complacent or rest. Surely and steadily, we will turn this economy around,” the statement said.The announcement comes days after the government reported that the number of unemployed continues to rise; the unemployment rate now sits at 9.4 percent, the highest in more than 25 years. Hundreds of thousands of Americans continue to lose jobs each month, although fewer jobs were lost last month than expected. Just how much of an impact Obama’s recovery program had on the pace of job losses is up for debate. Obama has claimed as many as 150,000 jobs saved or created by his stimulus plan so far, even as government reports have shown the economy has lost more than 1.6 million jobs since Congress approved funding for the program in February.Republicans remain critical of the stimulus spending, slamming it as a big government program that ultimately will do little for recovery. With only a fraction of the federal money actually spent thus far, it’s premature to give the stimulus plan credit for economic trends, congressional Republicans said last week. “I think the economy is just as likely to begin to recover on its own, wholly aside from this, before much of this has an impact. So I’m very skeptical that this massive sort of spending binge that we’ve engaged in is going to have much of an impact,” said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.Obama initially offered his stimulus plan as a way to put people back to work, a promise that 3.5 million jobs would be saved or created. The administration’s predictions that unemployment would rise no higher than 8 percent already have been shattered, leaving Obama’s advisers to caution that job growth takes time, even as recovery spending intensifies. Federal agencies will release billions of stimulus dollars to states in the coming months.Health and Human Services will provide funding for 1,129 health centers to provide expanded service for 300,000 patients; Interior will begin improvements on 107 national parks; Veterans Affairs will start work on 90 medical centers in 38 states; the Justice Department will fund 5,000 law enforcement jobs; the Agriculture Department will begin 200 new rural waste and water system projects; and the Environmental Protection Agency will begin or accelerate the cleanup of 20 Superfund sites.At the same time federal money for these projects is released, the nation’s unemployment rate likely will continue to increase, said Austan Goolsbee, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. “I don’t think there’s any question it’s going to be a rough patch not just in the immediate term, but for a little bit of time,” Goolsbee said Sunday, “because you’ve got to turn the economy around, and jobs and job growth tend to come after you turn the economy around. So it’s likely going to be a little higher.”Obama senior adviser David Axelrod argues that the stimulus program is working and points to fewer jobs lost in May than the month before as a hopeful sign of economic recovery. Improvements in unemployment numbers naturally come later, he said. “It’s going to take some time for these unemployment numbers to turn around, for the momentum to completely stop and turn in the other direction,” Axelrod said. “It feels as if we’re moving and the stimulus package now is not nearly done, it’s just really at its beginnings.” Goolsbee spoke on “Fox News Sunday;” Axelrod was interviewed on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 7:18 am
Maybe this could help:The U.S. House approved legislation that would give consumers as much as $4,500 to buy new, fuel- efficient vehicles under a “cash-for-clunkers” proposal aimed at boosting auto sales.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=a2MS6iA7r4FM
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 8:08 am
Is this for real?
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 8:12 am
This looks to be good only for vehicles that get 18mpg or less. You cannot get the benefit if your current vehicle more mpg than that.
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 9:09 am
A powerful piece of observation, logic and analysis.
FEDup • June 10th, 2009 at 10:15 am
agree! Lack of transparency is at the heart of the matter; it prevents accurate and timely diagnosis and treatment of the illness; imagine how much simpler it would be to prevent these diabolical schemes if all the facts were known; yet, our country continues to allow the elite to operate under a cloak of opaqueness while the rest of us are held to letter of the law. We must demand and receive full transparency or remain perpetually indebted to and abused by the system.
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 10:18 am
roubini is not a fool so he must see what many on here talk about and that’s no jobs or more important an economy that survives on 70% consumption.Maybe roubini really thinks that the passing around a buck without creating anything is sustainable.if there nuclear subs why cant we build nuclear ships for cargo right in Groton Conn. ?There are a thousand things we can make or maybe the rain here in the northeast is making my brain soggy
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 10:39 am
How can America compete in emerging world markets if she is morphing into debt and delusion under socialism while China and other sleeping giants are shaking off socialism and communism and morphing into market economies under the rule of supply and demand?How can America compete while destroying the work incentive of Peter by taking from him to pay Paul–, ie, $8,000 from Peter to help Paul buy his first home; $4,500 to help Paul buy a new, fuel-efficient vehicle under a “cash-for-clunkers” proposal aimed at boosting auto sales; an earned income credit for Paul’s two children from Peter totaling $4,824 for Paul’s family; and Peter’s share of the $9.8 trillion allocated over the next 10 year on means-tested aid to Paul—-$17,400 a year?“In 2008, federal, state and local means-tested spending hit $679 billion per year. The House stimulus bill adds another $787 billion to this total, yielding a 10-year total of $9.8 trillion. The total 10-year cost of means-tested welfare will then amount to $127,000 for each household paying federal income tax,” according to Robert E. Rector and Katharine Bradley in “ WELFARE SPENDATHON: HOUSE BILL WILL COST TAXPAYERS $787 BILLION IN NEW WELFARE SPENDING,” February 6, 2009.To back up this statement, Rector and Bradley explain that “The recently passed U.S. House of Representative stimulus bill contains $816 billion in new spending and tax cuts. Of this sum, $264 billion (32 percent) is new means-tested welfare spending. This represents about $6,700 in new welfare spending for every poor person in the U.S.”Say the authors: “But this welfare spending is only the tip of the iceberg. The bill sets in motion another $523 billion in new welfare spending that is hidden by budgetary gimmicks…the total 10-year extra welfare cost is likely to be $787 billion.“The claim that Congress is temporarily increasing welfare spending for Keynesian purposes (to spark the economy by boosting consumer spending) is a red herring. The real goal is to get ‘the camel’s nose under the tent’ for a massive permanent expansion of the welfare state.“In the first year after enactment of the stimulus bill, federal welfare spending will explode upward by more than 20 percent, rising from $491 billion in FY 2008 to $601 billion in FY 2009. This one-year explosion in welfare spending is, by far, the largest in U.S. history… The stimulus bill is a welfare spendathon, a massive down payment on Obama’s promise to ‘spread the wealth.’“[T]he total 10-year fiscal burden (added to the national debt) will not be $816 billion, as claimed, but $1.34 trillion. This amounts to $17,400 for each household paying income tax in the U.S.”http://www.heritage.org/research/economy/upload/wm_2276.pdfAccording to the Heritage Foundation, “Means-tested programs, are typically termed welfare programs. Unlike direct benefits, means-tested programs are available only to households below specific income thresholds. Means-tested welfare programs provide cash, food, housing, medical care, and social services to poor and low-income persons.The federal government operates over 60 means-tested aid programs.[6] The largest of these are Medicaid; the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC); food stamps; Supplemental Security Income (SSI); Section 8 housing; public housing; Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF); the school lunch and breakfast programs; the WIC (Women, Infants, and Children) nutrition program; and the Social Services Block Grant (SSBG) Many means-tested programs, such as SSI and the EITC, provide cash to recipients. Others, such as public housing or SSBG, pay for services that are provided to recipients.”http://www.heritage.org/Research/welfare/sr12.cfm
Tim • June 10th, 2009 at 10:49 am
Russia says it will sell some U.S. Treasuries, buy IMF bondsMOSCOW (AP) — Russia’s Central Bank says it plans to cut its reserves of U.S. Treasury securities and invest in International Monetary Fund bonds instead, a senior official said Wednesday.About 30% of Russia’s $400 billion worth of hard currency reserves are currently held in U.S. Treasuries.”We are planning to gradually reduce the share of U.S. treasuries as a window of opportunity for working with other instruments is opening, and the situation with foreign banks has become clearer,” Alexey Ulyukaev said in comments quoted by the state-run RIA Novosti news agency.Ulyukaev said Russia would invest in IMF bonds and bank deposits. IMF bonds are denominated in special drawing rights, an artificial currency used by the IMF.Russian officials have expressed concern about the dollar’s role as an international reserve currency for several years and President Dmitry Medvedev has even argued that the ruble should serve as a regional reserve currency because the dollar is too unstable.
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 11:24 am
10yrs 30yrs treasury blood bath. wow, 10yrs yield challenging 4%. 30yrs yield challenging 5% soon. forget challenging, break out to top side, imminent, yikes.
Clu • June 10th, 2009 at 11:29 am
Think about it: The power of the most powerful elites to conceal their true identities and deeds *is always* going to exceed your power to discover and expose their true deeds and identities.
Softwarengineer • June 10th, 2009 at 11:52 am
FIRST OFF, I’M AN OLD FASHION LIBERAL, ALBEIT CENTRIST ON THE ENVIRONMENT WITH EARTHDAY OVERPOPULATION PREVENTIONI see the current economic implosion in Europe a precursor to America’s fate. Both of our political parties have generally abandonned the populist opinion, in favor of extremist groups and lobbyists. It wasn’t because we voted them in, we had no one else to vote for [I voted Nader in retaliation], that wasn’t hand-picked by the extremist factions. The same thing is happenning in Europe and the manure as hit the fan.I think was has slowed the concurrent American anger is our media. Dogging us with all is well, while 20-25% of our work force is unemployed, severely underemployed, and/or forgotten.Ask anyone this survey question:”Do you want more overpopulation in your neighborhood?”The survey results would be like 95% Hades No!I’m sure they’ll never give Americans that survey, because the “Like Parties” and the “Corporate Lobbyists” apparently run the media they present to America.
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Building inspectors in San Jose, California, this week agreed to a 10 percent pay cut in order to save five jobs in their department. Accepting the offer last night, the San Jose City Council voted to roll back its own salaries a whopping 3.75 percent. (Council salaries are $90,000 a year plus a $3,000 car allowance. Council members voted 10 to 1 not to cut the car allowance.)Government spending seems to roll along fine until the huge waves of incoming cash show signs of thinning a bit. Then someone suggests salary cuts, and a panic search for other alternatives begins: close libraries and parks, etc.One place to look for money, officials of Santa Clara County (where San Jose is located) discovered is in how its fleet of 2,000 vehicles is used. The county is facing a $273 million budget deficit.An audit of fleet use shows 26 employees have been using county vehicles to commute to work from outside the county, a violation of rules. Some employees used cars while on vacation, and about 48 other vehicles have been sitting idle.The audit found mileage and maintenance records scattered, and fuel “used essentially without limit” (Stephen Baxter, “Willow Glen Resident” newspaper).The audit found there were 2,984 parking tickets on county vehicles and $105,000 in unpaid fines. County employees were responsible for an average of 239 traffic accidents a year, and “certain employees had been involved in several accidents.” The auditor recommended more training for “accident-prone employees.” (Omigosh! Training! Isn’t that a little harsh?)Anyway, this story suggests that if taxpayers never said “stop” to government, that government would just roll right over us all, and crush us to bits
MM CA • June 10th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
19 billion Treasury auction sold at 3.99% – ouch…. here we go
MM CA • June 10th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
market dropping right after this auction…
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Note that in today’s MSN Money market report that financials have climbed their way back, on the backs of the taxpayers, to the second-largest market weighting in the S&P 500:“[BRIEFING.COM] The financial sector (-1.1%) has extended its losses and now trades with the worst percentage decline of any major sector in the S&P 500. Since financials carry the second-largest market weighting in the S&P 500, their downturn is acting as a considerable drag on the broader market.“Wrote Seeking Alpha on January 16, 2009 in “Sector Weighting of the S&P 500: Financials Drop from First to Fifth”:A new king has been crowned out of the ten sectors of the S&P 500, while the old one has fallen hard. We’ve highlighted historical sector weightings of the S&P 500 a few times in the past, and the Financial sector has always made up the biggest portion of the overall index in our posts. However, after the big declines in Financial market caps over the last year, the sector has fallen all the way down to the number 5 spot in terms of sector weight!Technology has taken over the number one spot with a weighting of 16% in the S&P 500, followed by Health Care, Energy, and Consumer Staples. In the charts and tables below, readers can see how sector weightings in the S&P have changed over time going back to 1990. It’s interesting to see how the weightings shift based on which areas are the main drivers of the US economy at the time. In the early 90s, Industrials and Consumer sectors made up the biggest portion of the index. Then Technology took over during the Internet bubble, and Financials reigned supreme during the credit heyday of the 2000s. Energy made a big move as oil rose over the past few years, but the large drop in oil recently has stopped the sector from taking over the index. The current leaders of the index (Tech, Health Care) are there by default, and more a function of other sectors falling out of favor instead of them leading the economy. (For charts see):http://seekingalpha.com/article/115143-sector-weighting-of-the-s-p-500-financials-drop-from-first-to-fifth
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
U.S. mortgage demand withers as loan rates spike | June 10, 2009NEW YORK (Reuters) – Spiking U.S. mortgage rates drove down total home loan applications last week as demand for refinancing shriveled to the lowest level since November, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.The swift rate rise crimps affordability, likely cutting offer prices on home sales and prolonging a housing turnaround.Borrowing costs have soared as bond yields have risen, even as the Federal Reserve has sopped up hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds to keep rates low and stimulate the housing market.The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped 0.32 percentage point in the June 5 week to 5.57 percent. That was nearly a full point, about 100 basis points, above the record low rate of 4.61 percent in March, the trade group said.”Clearly, 50 or 100 basis points more on mortgage rates is enough to matter. It effects what people can afford to buy,” said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services in Boston.The vast majority of mortgage activity this year has been from homeowners cutting costs with new loans at rock-bottom rates.The Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index of total applications dropped 7.2 percent to a four-month low of 611.0 in the latest week.The refinancing index slumped 11.8 percent to a nearly seven-month low of 2,605.7 last week, and refinancing accounted for about 59 percent of all applications, the lowest share since November. As recently as April, refinancings accounted for almost 80 percent of all home loan applications…http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090610/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_mortgages
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
One way to do an attic clean out. Glad he doesn’t live near me.
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
MichelleGiven recent action and in consideration to Pete Ca, Brian and othhers above, are you still confident on your call posted 2009-06-02 18:24:27 and copied below?Major buying opportunity June 12th, buy buy buy with both fists. GM CDS auction – best opportunity to get back into the market.The market is heading up as there is nobody left to sell. Capitulation DID happen this spring and most of us were late to the party. This is YOUR opportunity – don’t waste it. There’s a ton of cash on the sidelines and it will start pouring in. Prepare now and get ready to buy, but wait for the pullback, and don’t buy until June 11th or 12th, which ever day gives us the biggest pullback.Hide replies Reply to this comment By Michelle on 2009-06-02 18:24:27Thankshlowe
FEDup • June 10th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
Agree! And the only REAL POWER the average citizen has is to stop giving them our money: become self-sufficient and non-materialistic; barter services if you have to but don’t accept their credit, their loans or other gimmicks to control the money supply-force them to play our game BY no longer playing theirs!!!
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Ten Year Auction ResultJune 10th, 2009 1:32 pm | by John Jansen |Tim Geithner invited a host of folks to 10 year note auction party and very few of the guests showed up.The auction of $ 19 billion 10 year notes received a less than enthusiastic response from investors. I think we can say that investors responded with a rousing Bronx cheer to the offering.At the time of the auction the issue was trading at 3.955 percent in the brokers market. The market clearing price was 3.99 which represents a tail of 3.5 basis points.The market has collapsed since the release of the results. As best I can tell the issue has not breached the 4 percent level (yet).The yield curve is steepening quite a bit in response.The 2year/10 year spread is now 262 basis . It traded briefly at 263 basis points which is a 50 percent retracement of the move from 278 (pre labor) and the 248 open yesterday morning.The 10 year/30 year spread is 82 basis points and traded as narrow as 75 basis points. The street will spend the next 24 hours shooting the taxpayer in the big toe as it sets up for the bond auction tomorrow.In the aftermath of the auction the issue traded back to a 4.82 percent yield. One could make a case that we are within spitting distance of a 5 percent bond.How do you say short circuit the recovery with higher interest rates? Or maybe it is the Bernanke conundrum.http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=6220#comments
Average Jane • June 10th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Fiddlesticks. A drop in the bucket compared with corporate welfare, e.g., subsidies for Exxon/Mobil. The amount of people who game the system is miniscule. The vast majority of our poor, disabled, elderly and needy cannot earn wages, thus need the government help. Or I suppose we could just dump all of them in the street. Survival of the fittest and all that rot. Jeez Louise.
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Wondering where you’re from, or who’s the “you” you’re referring to, but…Many people see a difference (and a different significance) between past, present and future.
kilgores • June 10th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Ditto. I think some folks on this board have allowed their sense of empathy to atrophy.SWK
CuriousGeorge • June 10th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
I appreciate your reply and clarification from above – Europe as a leading indicator for the USA.When you say Europe do you mean the EU? Is it worth making the following distinction? The situation in the Baltics and former Iron Curtain nations might well be the pre-cursor for the EU.I wonder how long the EU social safety net will hold up. We have no such thing in the USA, so at some point a flip-flop might occur and what happens in the USA regarding social unrest, etc. could be a pre-cursor for the EU.I am still trying to see how Russia fits in with this line of thinking. Any thoughts?
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
Thanks LB,But how did you find my video? I mean, that could be anyone of us. Maybe we would be a little more precise in our language, or focus on the fundamentals, or describe the outrageous gifts to JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.Nevertheless, the raw emotionality and frustration matches anyone of us.
PeterJB • June 10th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
“Individual ability to choose and take risk is being suppressed. It is increasingly evident that it is the government that is defining risk and the taking of risk. The sanctity of Moral Hazard has now been repeatedly breached by both recent administrations.” Marc FaberThere is your recession cum depression.Leadership and their incompetences are the cause of the global economic crisis, of this there now can be no doubt and the more “leadership” impose their solutions that are designed to save themselves at the cost of the real economy, the worse the whole will get.How can you have a thriving real economy when you extract all the energy and put it in storage with your preferred lot which are essentially outside of the real economy?Analogy: Pump the petrol tank of your car dry and put the fuel in a drum and then ask, why is the car not moving? Why won’t it start?Ho hum
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION?????????????????We all know this is going to end in hyper-inflation and the collapse of the dollar.PeteCA, PeterJB, London Banker, MM CA, when in your opinions does this occur?
Brian • June 10th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
I’m starting to believe that stocks are going up only as a function of money coming out of bonds. Certainly there is no economic justification for stocks to continue their relentless rally. A 3 month 40% rally without any correction doesn’t fit into any “fundamentals” or technical model that I’ve ever seen.I continue to spend a great deal of time thinking about this, and I’m currently poking at the idea that what we’re seeing play out is a bond market pullback that will feed the stock market rally as well as the rally in oil. Higher oil/gas prices plus high and increasing interest rates will lower consumer confidence and (in the real economy) stop refinancing and drop home prices and home sales.In anticipation of this, the congress is/will take actions to try to pull future sales of homes and heavy equipment/autos into the current sales period by accelerating the stimulus and by offering incentives. These would increase debt and require more bond sales, but there is no way the market holds out that long. At some point along the way, bond investors will send the market crashing.Bond market crash will skyrocket interest rates and crush the stock market.It feels like we will see a repeat of the stock chart from the 1929-1933 period in a modestly compressed timeframe, which means a massive crash after the bear market rally.When? Well, I’m much better at forecasting What then When, but barring Black or Golden Swan events, I’d guess 3 months plus or minus about 2 months. It feels like we could see a pause or reversal of current trends over the next few weeks, but overall, bond market collapse is showing the first real signs. The question is really when trader panic sets in. The announcement by Russia that they are diversifying out of US bonds is huge, IMHO. If other countries or large institutions pick up on the cue, things could happen quickly. Otherwise, we’re waiting for ever increasing bond supply to rupture the market.Still working on my models…–Brian
Morbid • June 10th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
You didn’t ask me but if you read about hypercanes you will get a good idea of the hyperinflation that is bound to follow the failed policies of the ObamaNation of Desolation (Dan. 9:27). I don’t know when this will occur but in any event we are all screwed.My suggestion is to buy a teepee and settle in the Great Plains. Buy a Honeywell wind turbine to generate your electricity and hunker down.
PeterJB • June 10th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
How can America compete in emerging world markets if she is morphing into debt and delusion under socialism while China and other sleeping giants are shaking off socialism and communism and morphing into market economies under the rule of supply and demand?”@ Guest on 2009-06-10 10:39:10Indeed, leaving one to ask, are all of this tribe of Western leadership unaware of history? But, you must respond that socialism coupled with fascism is becoming, has become, pervasive throughout the West as the applied political doctrine du jour. Why is this so? And more so, why is it, that the USA leading the rush to the socialism store?Doesn’t it ever strike anyone as strange that every time leadership get into trouble (which is most of the time) they run to money (BIG BUSINESS) for advice and screw everybody else? Leadership in the West is all drawn from the ranks of the “camp followers” or from the nature and behaviours of the criminal elements and as such, permission must always be asked – on bended knees – where this policy is NOT transmitted downwards where it is far more profitable to apologize that to ask permission!The bastion of Liberty is becoming, has become, the anti-Christ of the planet, or the planet’s magnetic field has reversed (it has done so many times).Obviously, socialism appeases the masses that allows leadership to remain as leadership, while fascism allows the supporting bastions of leadership, to harvest from the masses beyond taxation and through a pseudo-inflation er, theft, so as to drip feed leadership. Or, the answer to your question is: Leadership in the West is done but desires to preside over anything and presiding over a complete global collapse is far preferable, a priori, to not presiding!Hanlon’s Razor – but, the good news is that there are answers. Of course, the bad news is that the bad news is preferred!Ho hum
Fairy Nuff • June 10th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
No one has ever been an island of self-sufficiency. Humans have been sucessful as a species because they are societal-living creatures (with an overwhelming drive to come to each other’s aid and rescue in times of need) who cooperate. And humans’ real advances are result of the efficiencies of division of labor. Plus there’s nothing wrong with wanting or having “stuff” per se – the wrong is in wanting and having more and more and more without limit. It is time for enough to be enough, and no one excepted, not even Kings and Queens, land-owners, bosses, celebrities. Rather than deprive yourselves of material goods and credit that lubricates your economies and the benefits of division of labor, you could stop giving them your money by outlawing anyone’s having over a certain amount that is democratically mandated – say a few millions? I think that’s a far better solution. What do you think of that idea? Anybody?
PeterJB • June 10th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
The first signs were obvious in 2006 but the beginning came much earlier but during the periods leading up to 2006, the policies could have been introduced to correct the road that we are on, but those policies introduced by all of leadership in main, just exacerbated and thusly accelerated what is coming, so the long answer is, it is here and there is nothing to be done but endure and forgive where both such actions will be most difficult. Mileage will vary.Short answer: Any time time now where I believe the shock will come prior to July 2009 end but a rough guess will be prior to 2010 start. It will be heralded by the general public realization of the socio-economic collapse of the USA (a former Constitutional Republic) marked by the total collapse of the US Dollar or the inability for the USA to meet is debt (any of the US$ 157 Trillion). Obviously, this is already here, but the keyword”s are ” public realization”.There are no, and can be no definitive instances in time!
Giraf • June 10th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
The truth comes out:Fed officials sharply criticized Bank of America and CEO Kenneth Lewis in emails to each other after the bank tried to pull out of its deal to buy troubled investment bank Merrill Lynch, according to documents unearthed by Congressional investigators. The emails confirm Fed Chairman Bernanke was willing to threaten Mr. Lewis’s removal as CEO if he reneged on the Merrill deal and later sought assistance.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124466361157703247.html#mod=djemalertNEWS
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
a gap down on 30yr treasury bond like today guarantee more downside.
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
if that is true then why would not roubini say so ?
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
Can you say Zimbabwe?
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
I think you mean FASCISM
Giraf • June 10th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Now that should be a wonderful trade!Out of Treasuries into IMF bonds. Isn’t the main purpose of IMF borrowing to lend to countries that cannot borrow in their own name? Isn’t the IMF the equivalent of a sub-prime mortgage conduit, except their “assets” are loans to some of the world’s worst sovreign credits? And, finally, isn’t the U.S. the major financial backer of the IMF?Seems to me that the Russians are being a trifle naive.
Call me detail oriented, formerly a Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
MM CA. Am I correct in believing that you’ve plucked whole sections of an Associated Press article for your latest piece or are they plagiarizing you?I Googled “Health and Human Services will provide funding for 1,129 health centers to provide expanded service for 300,000 patients” and came up with the following website:http://wtop.com/?sid=1675953&nid=116Then again, maybe you are one of the AP guys that wrote the piece.
Call me detail oriented, formerly a Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
RepostMM CA on 2009-06-10 07:14:20MM CA. Am I correct in believing that you’ve plucked whole sections of an Associated Press article for your latest piece or are they plagiarizing you?I Googled “Health and Human Services will provide funding for 1,129 health centers to provide expanded service for 300,000 patients” and came up with the following website:http://wtop.com/?sid=1675953&nid=116Then again, maybe you are one of the AP guys that wrote the piece
MM CA • June 10th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
i forgot to post the link….
MM CA • June 10th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
I wrote last december I believed Hyper-inflation and dollar collapse would happen in the nov-Dec 09 time period. I think now we will see the hyper, but Dollar could hang on a little longer or at least not be a total collapse.actual post was “Deflation takes strong hold until sept 2009, at which point hyperinflation is roaring by dec 2009″ and “US Dollar continues slow decline against Yen, Euro, Pound and Yuan – losses 50% by Dec 2009″
MM CA • June 10th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
I wrote above i forgot to post the link.
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
new thread
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
The blog police are everywhere!
Giraf • June 10th, 2009 at 6:33 pm
A batting glove but no eye protection? The man must be mad!
Guest • June 10th, 2009 at 10:56 pm
It was clear to me that MM CA was posting an article for our information–it was in the format.
Young Economist • June 11th, 2009 at 1:56 am
Why 10-year bond yield will be two digits this year? This is disaster for usThe main reason of rising bond yield is the higher government budget deficit and debt and FED’s quantitative easing. And we are all known that we are going to face the risk of high inflation or hyperinflation because the action of policy makers create the inflation expectations and we are already seen them. If you look at current price data, core CPI and Core PCE increase for 4 months at accelerating rate, unit labor cost increases by 5% in the last quarter. Oil price increases by 100% in 4 months. The CPI data for May will show the jump in CPI and the inflation expectation data will also show the jump. Furthermore, if oil price stay at 70-100 USD/barrel, we could see the inflation at 15% in Q409 and Q110. Why don’t we see two digits 10-year bond yield?But we will rather face the declining growth (especially employment) and rising price because the policy makers create the wrong policy and wrong signal to the private sectors. Clearly, all speculators jump to invest in oil and short government bond because if we face the bad economy, government will have more budget deficit and FED will print more money; surely, the all business and consumer will not expect the lower inflation. That means the higher inflation in the future or the higher long bond yield. The more liquidity by FED also support the speculation in oil price. However, we could not see the actual real growth because the unadjusted price by policy markers. The business prefer the lower employment to use monopoly policy rather than use full capacity because we are all known that the consumption will be lower; therefore, the producers rather choose to sustain their profit margin than expand production to get lower margin. Therefore, the wrong policy will create producers’ monopoly policy meaning the lower production and higher price.It would be better if policy makers decide to build the expectation of 1) low and stable price; meaning that if there is no way to create the monopoly policy and we could see the growth along with price; higher growth and higher price.Now speculators should have 2 pair trades: long US dollar and short government bond and long oil and short stocks because we are facing the rising inflation and interest rate that will kill the economy. That means we could face the false expectation in the stock price that depend on the real growth but we could face only inflation. We should also short bond yield from the rising inflation and long Us dollar from the benefit of the rising yield.I think FED and US government should change the policy suddenly before those policies kill us all dead. I just learned for Ph.D. class in development economics on the growth strategies written by Prof. Rodrik that no short term policy that is successful to drive the growth sustainably and there is only long term policy can improve the economy. I agree the unorthodox policy but printing money to monetize debts is not good unorthodox policy but it will create the economic disaster. Because we will face only high inflation with growth or the growth depression with hyperinflation. Now the only thing I see is that government use concept of privatizing the gain and socializing the loss for the private but all subsequent debts and inflation will be the burden of the next generation and surely next generation will live with the high cost of living and a lot of tax payment for the debts.I think this month we will see 4.5% ten year bond yield at least and two digits in this year. The only way to stop this trend is to stop wrong policy. FED should stop QE program and start to increase the interest rate to stop speculation and build the low inflation expectation. The government should increase tax on the rich, tax on the gain on oversea investment both hard and financial assets and increase excise or import tax to improve the trade balance.
MM CA • June 12th, 2009 at 11:50 am
whoopdy doo…
St Just • June 12th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
Heads will have to roll
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