EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

Video of a talk on “The Failure to Predict Financial Crises and Recessions”

I recently gave a talk at a conference organized by the Perimeter Institute (a leading theoretical physics research institution in Canada) on Economic Crisis and the Implications to the Science of Economics

The topic of my talk was “The Failure to Predict Financial Crises and Recessions”.

 

The video of such a talk (all 51 minutes of it) is now available online at this link. The talk is a bit wonky and academic and high brow; but it provides some useful insight on why most failed to predict this crisis and what are the lessons for the economic profession. Actually the economic literature is full of theoretical and empirical studies of financial crises (debt crisis, sovereign debt crises, systemic banking crises, currency crises, systemic household and corporate debt crises, asset and credit boom/bubbles and bust/crashes) and systemic risk.  Thus, connecting this analytical and empirical literature to a careful analysis of the data would have suggested that the worst financial crisis and economic crisis since the Great Depression was not a “Black Swan” event but rather a “White Swan” event, i.e. it was not a random drawing from a distribution of events with a fat tail but actually predictable in advance given the rising macro and financial risks and vulnerabilities.

As I have argued before on this blog there were many economists, thinkers and analysts that actually predicted early on many risks and vulnerabilities that would have led to a crisis:

“there were a small but significant number of economists, thinkers and analysts who – early on – predicted many of the risks and vulnerabilities that eventually led to this crisis. In many ways I simply connected the dot in these different strands of thinking and warnings.

Among a few others Robert Shiller was one of the earliest ones to study in detail and warn about a housing bubble; Kenneth Rogoff and a few other economists warned early on about the unsustainability of the US current account deficits and of the global imbalances; Raghu Rajan presented one of the earliest and sharpest analyses of the agency problems and incentive distortions deriving from  compensation schemes in financial institutions; Nassim Taleb and a few other finance scholars stressed the risk of fat tail extreme events in financial markets;  Paul Krugman – who received his Nobel for his trade contributions – was the father of currency and financial crisis theories in international macro as at least three generations of currency crisis models were developed from his seminal work;  Stephen Roach, David Rosenberg and a few other financial sector analysts warned about the shopped-out, saving-less, bubble-addict and debt-burdened US consumer ; Niall Ferguson provided vivid comparisons between historical episodes of financial crises and current vulnerabilities; Hyun Shin and other scholars in academia provided early modeling of illiquidity and of the perverse effects of leverage during asset bubbles; William White and his colleagues at the BIS were among the first – following the scholarship of Hyman Minsky – to analyze how the “Great Moderation” may  paradoxically lead to “Financial Instability”, asset and credit  bubbles and financial crises; Gillian Tett and a few other journalists at the Financial Times provided early clear explanations of the arcane complexity of credit derivatives and structured finance and of the systemic risks deriving from these new exotic financial instruments; dozen of serious and deep thinking scholars in academia modeled analytically – and tested empirically – the various aspects of systemic financial crises and the interactions  between currency crises, systemic banking crises, systemic corporate and household debt crises and sovereign debt crises.

Given the important work done by these and other scholars and thinkers it was certainly easier for me to connect the analytically and empirical dots and warn early on in the middle of 2006 about the incoming economic and financial tsunami. It is important to recognize that a small but significant number of thinkers were willing to think outside the box and were aware of many risks and vulnerabilities. These thinkers – like myself – were not Dr. Dooms; they were rather Dr. Realists, analytically rigorous and intellectually honest and willing to engage in critical thinking rather than follow the herd of the easy consensus.”

The same eclectic and realistic analytical approach – that uses theory, statistical analysis, empirical evidence, data and circumstantial evidence  and that connects the macro analysis to the analysis of the financial system – is most useful to predict if/when the Great Recession will bottom out and whether the economic recovery will be robust or weak and below potential growth.

At this point, leaving aside some analysts that still see a significant risk of a “depression” or “near depression” the difference between the consensus optimists (who see the Great Recession being over by mid-year (June 2009)) and those that are – like myself – more bearish (and predicted that the recession would last about 24 months and would thus be over by the end of 2009 or early 2010) is only two quarters or so; and even on this point the optimist who saw the bottom being at mid-year are becoming more cautious as the latest batch of US and global macro data has been  – at best – mixed.  The more relevant issue now is rather whether the recovery – once we reach the bottom – is going to be strong and robust with rapid return to potential growth – as the consensus is currently arguing – or whether the US and other advanced economies will experience a period of at least two years of sub-part below trend growth as the debt overhang of households, financial institutions, corporate firms and governments will lead to less borrowing and lending and less spending (consumption, residential investment, capex spending) growth than in the boom high growth years. I have recently argued in some detail ten reasons why the recovery is going to be below potential.

740 Responses to “Video of a talk on “The Failure to Predict Financial Crises and Recessions””

GuestJune 1st, 2009 at 9:28 pm

I think that why we failed to predict dicussion should be behind us and focus should be on problems ahead.

GuestJune 1st, 2009 at 9:33 pm

“debt overhang of households, financial institutions, corporate firms and governments will lead to less borrowing and lending and less spending (consumption, residential investment, capex spending) growth than in the boom high growth years”We are once more looking for that growth without addressing amediate problems the us faces in selling treasuries.

GuestJune 1st, 2009 at 9:36 pm

In Monday trading, one pound was worth $1.6433, its strongest position since early November last year.The euro was also up against the dollar, with one euro worth $1.4246 at one point, a six-month high.The dollar has fallen on signs the global economy is improving. This makes currency traders more confident to switch to higher-yielding currencies.http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8076713.stm

GuestJune 1st, 2009 at 9:38 pm

In a speech at Beijing University at the start of his two-day visit, Mr Geithner reassured his Chinese hosts that they need not worry about the estimated $770bn (£475bn) they have invested in US treasuries, a class of US government debt.”Chinese financial assets are very safe,” he said, drawing laughter from the audiencehttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8076642.stm

PeteCAJune 1st, 2009 at 10:33 pm

Earlier quote by Hayes on this forum …”the following speaks for itself and speaks volumes (note the comment I have highlighted from this short article)Meet GM’s Dismantler: Brian Deesehttp://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/meet-gms-dismantler-brian-deese/”au6553 :June 1st, 2009 at 12:28 pmYou’re not reading closely enough. He isn’t a lawyer, because he never even finished law school, much less passed a state bar.To keep score – he’s not an economist, is not an expert on bankruptcy, hasn’t bothered to finish his law degree, doesn’t have an mba, and has no background in the auto industry. This is positively stunning.”I second that opinion.I read the article about Brian Deese … and my jaw dropped wide open. Maybe this is an example of the full employment policy that Obama is aiming at. Maybe not many people from Yale want to take the challenging job of changing light bulbs in manufacturing plants. But to put a grad student in charge of the reorganization of GM …SAY WHAT ??????????Come to think of it, if the guy needs a job then why not put him in the state legislature of California. He can’t possibly do worse than the politicians we’ve already got. At least I wouldn’t be worried about that assignment.PeteCA

淫人妻女奪其財June 1st, 2009 at 11:27 pm

在美国現實世界中,经济学只不過是閒話.克魯明話美政府的放任貨幣政策已帶美國走向復甦.如果這是真話,這亦是笑話!

AnonymousJune 2nd, 2009 at 1:04 am

Dear Sir,I cannot understand the point you make. The economy could certainly rebound in a modest way and avoid a depression. Good news. But I do not buy into any argumentation about long term recovery.Building a money-conscious US economy will take certainly more than a couple of additional trimesters. Building a more decent monetary system – hence an acceptable framework for globalization – is currently just of reach.Apart from a limited change in the US consumer behavior – and certainly to short to have long term impact – what allows anyone to prognosticate better times.

Little SaverJune 2nd, 2009 at 1:12 am

To prevent new problems ahead, it is extremely important to understand why the “concensus” always fails to see the problems coming.

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 3:17 am

might be the perfect time, while everyone is focusing on green shoots, etc., while maybe failing to predict what’s ahead, or accurately see what’s really going on now.

CLakeJune 2nd, 2009 at 5:01 am

Amazing how the word “improving” systematically replaces “deteriorating less quickly”…Are there signs that the global economy is improving ? Or that it is deteriorating less quickly ?

MM CAJune 2nd, 2009 at 7:30 am

Just paid 3.02 a gallon for gas in Calif… Go back to this time last year and the rise in gas soon led to the Septembet meltdown… People stoped paying thier mortgages and bills so they could put gas in thier cars… As gas prices go so will the next big downturn in the economy… its the same game being played out…this time the fundamentals are even worse, thier is less credit for people to charge thier gas… only good news is thier are elss drivers because thier are NO JOBS! No JOBS equals NO RECOVERY anytime soon… I still fail to see with Job growth will come from… With recent data indcicating that FED and State Tax revenues are falling off a cliff and in major decline it is only a matter of time before Gov’t layoffs occur accross all sectors and that was the only part of the job market that was holding…I went to two malls yesterday, both were 25-35% vacant, traffic lite and prices high on everyhting. Went to lids to by an offical NY Yankee ball cap, the guy found it, rang it up and when he said 37.99 i almost choked and said no thanks.. then went to macy to purcahse a pair of loafers, on sale price was 79.99 i said no thanks. now it had been about a year since i went shopping and i could not believe the price increases… a pair of Levis’ 501 in Sears was on sale for 39.99 -lol. looks lile prices going up for those that can or want to pay them… these stores are doomed with this philosphy. and it wasnt that i could nto afford this stuff… jsut decided i didnt need it enough and will find it online cheaper.Folks – this a lull in the storm, the data , numbers, fundamentals are worse then ever…

JGUJune 2nd, 2009 at 8:06 am

Is the banking system still insolvent, dear professor? Will the stock market be closed to prevent a meltdown? Will the March low hold in the next leg down? What does your crystal ball tell you, my good professor? Thanks for any answer.

FEDupJune 2nd, 2009 at 8:16 am

agree! The retailers (who are left or barely hanging on) cannot continue with huge sales and “loss leaders” to get customers in the door without selling their other merchandise at a profit. As more and more people adopt the “McWalmart” mentality (eat at McDonalds, shop at Walmart) a domino effect of failing manufacturers, retailers, malls and increased unemployment will extend and most likely worsen this recession. And the auto industry-don’t get me started!

Plongka10June 2nd, 2009 at 8:34 am

But I thought all you guys NEEDED a pick-up for your huntin’ shootin’ and fishin’ trips at the weekend when you went up to the cabin by the lake?Sorry – it’s too easy taking shots from the other side of the pond. Beleive me when I say we are all living in pain. However, as a parting shot (!) may I suggest that y’all come back and moan about your gas prices when they reach $7 a gallon which is what we pay in Europe. Hey – that could be a great revenue generator for your Guvmint!

MM CAJune 2nd, 2009 at 8:42 am

with all the problems in the US these days, 7.00 a gallon for gas in the USwould seal the fate for all the economies in the world. the US system would collapse and everyone else would follow…

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 8:56 am

5.5% mortages and 3+ dollar gas is not a formula for recovery. Where are the jobs going to come from, when everybody is spending more on gas??This inflationary bubble into commodities only helps perceptions for bank stock purchases. Now that GM is in bankruptcy, the new mantra is “WHAT IS GOOD FOR GOLDMAN SACHS IS GOOD FOR AMERICA”.Unfortunately, jobs don’t fit in to this vision.

MichelleJune 2nd, 2009 at 10:22 am

Interesting prices. I went shopping yesterday at Fred Meyer and bought two very nice girls dresses that were not only marked down 50%, but were also buy one get one free, and I received an additional 15% off with in-store coupon. In all, I bought 4 dresses and two pairs of girls sandals for $82 with tax. Had I paid full price, I would’ve spent over $200. Prices must reflect what’s moving and what’s not.

MichelleJune 2nd, 2009 at 10:33 am

Job creation needs to be paramount at this stage of a recovery and the Obama administration has yet to resolve this issue. A double-dip recession does seem most likely, but even more frightening is the fact that we may become just like Japan and flatline for decades without job growth.It’s frustrating to wait and see what develops going forward, recognizing there was an immediate need to stabilize the financial system first and foremost. Now that this appears to have occurred, jobs must be created, and soon, in order to maintain this financial stability, otherwise we may find ourselves right back in the midst of implosion once again.TPTB seem to have a better handle on things, but I think they may quickly be blindsided if they don’t move faster to avoid impending disaster.

SoftwarengineerJune 2nd, 2009 at 10:34 am

VW/TOYOTA NEXTYou can “hem and haw” that the rest of the world is somehow special and separate from America’s industrial base collapse….trouble is, they aren’t. Asian auto manufacturers are totally dependent on American consumers; and Europe is stuck in the conundrum too. I hear young adults in Japan won’t buy cars, its a waste of money to them with global wage constrictions hitting their tier.Nope, I predict worldwide auto production bankruptcies, as America’s per capita income [not household income, families are moving in together now in America] goes down the toilet. You may hate the UAW, but its pay grades like that which fills the universities with students too.I also see the foreign automobile plants closing first [just like GM did to Mexico and Canada] in America when the foreign automobile company bankruptcies begin approximately in 2010 and 2011.You might want to put off a foreign car purchase this year, the bargains are very likely coming soon to a bankrupt foreign car dealer near you.

BobJune 2nd, 2009 at 10:48 am

On the gas and oil issue. It is obvious that we have more supply than demand but yet the price of oil continues to rise.Here’s a thought to consider – there were three countries or areas – China, Japan and the oil emerants that were buying 60% of our treasuries. It’s obvious that Japan will not be able to help much these days. We have Turbo Tax Timmy over telling China … It’s all good! Which leaves us with the oil countries.Do you think the US and the oil emerants are gaming the system for future buys in treasuries (i.e. we will keep oil high you continue to buy treasuries)?

SoftwarengineerJune 2nd, 2009 at 10:50 am

THE OBAMA PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS PLANHe praised the engineers in America for being some of the brightest in the world and assumed that even though the bailouts don’t directly build private sector jobs, the availability of money will drive our technical forces into new ventures, like wind mills and solar panels. LOLCompared to 100,000 part automobile production, do you know how many engineers it takes to build a like 1000 part wind mill….yes, approximately 1/100th of the laid off auto engineers.Couple this cheery news with how many production workers, accountants, MBAs, etc. needed with simple system green technology, you get the gist.Fuel cell cars could employ a lot of people, trouble is, I hear the price for these units is cost prohibitive [somewhere around $30-40K each]….Americans working today’s constrictive service sector pay [like $10-15/hr] don’t want those cars, they desire the units in the $10-15K range. Ask ‘em.But at least the laid off local government workers can work for a bit and the bank stock holders still have equity with the stimulus money emphasis, for now.

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 11:09 am

BEIJING — China’s former central bank adviser Yu Yongding will meet Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner today and tell him the U.S. shouldn’t be complacent about China continuing to buy Treasuries.”I wish to tell the U.S. government: ‘Don’t be complacent and think there isn’t any alternative for China to buy your bills and bonds,’” Yu said in an interview yesterday. “The euro is an alternative. And there are lots of raw materials we can still buy.”http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aatNgaPM2wQM&refer=home

C.A.June 2nd, 2009 at 11:16 am

OR, Do you still check in from time to time? I was wondering your thoughts on following the ECRI indicators. ECRI is pretty persuasive, compelling even, but with the real economy in the shape it appears to be in, growth based on the real economy seems somewhat difficult to believe in.

CahillJune 2nd, 2009 at 11:26 am

Most Europeans have the benefit of more public transportation. Cities in the southern part of the US really have very little public transport and places are spread out for miles and miles. But $7 a gallon still sucks no matter how you look at it.

狗仔June 2nd, 2009 at 12:00 pm

唯一偷食經驗!!大約一年前!!有老死生日BBQ(當時識佢果陣我條女唔係到,因為佢極度唔鍾意我其中一個FD,佢打死都唔去)佢係一個文員,平時反工會著OL裝,但平時出街就會著得好SEXY(佢亦都有男友)識佢第一日係成班FD BBQ 係一個好黑既交野公園 當時完全冇留意這個小妹妹(因佢細我5年)當BBQ完後我車其中2個FD反屋企,而這個小妹妹亦順路,所以車埋佢,先掉低我2個FD後,最後先到佢佢落車時話我好好人,我話順路啫,唔駛咁客氣,之後佢問我拎電話,有機會再一齊玩過幾日後~佢SEND SMN 問我有冇MSN~覆佢有之後我地就經常性地傾MSN當中我地有傾過性問題,佢話佢男友成日睇AV,話佢成日打飛機都唔肯掂佢(一星期一次左右,佢地係同居)我答佢你一星期有一次咪算好囉(因為我果時個女友係有性冷感,平均1-2個月先有一次)咁佢問,你平時想要但佢又唔比咁點算?我話一係忍, 一係自己搞掂囉,佢再問!你咁都唔去偷食?我答:因為我接受唔到自己另一伴偷食,所以張心比己,我唔會咁做大約MSN左一個月左右,我就約佢出黎食飯(只是朋友食飯,冇諗過會有事發生)之後食完飯,佢約左朋友飲酒,但未夠鐘,所以我就同佢搵個地方坐低我唔記得當時佢講過D咩,但一定係好有挑釁性既說話,我就一野咀埋去,咀到佢興合合既時候我就話係街唔係咁好,我地搵個地方再傾過,佢話好,咁我就一路行,是是但但就搵左間時鐘酒店一去到唔駛問梗係係咁車佢,車到咁上下我就話一齊沖涼,但佢話唔好,OK~自己沖自己上到床佢係完全另一個人,自動幫我吹,吹冇耐我就黎招69先,佢好多水,我成塊面都係=.=(係我見過出得最多水既女仔)冇耐就帶套上馬,因為佢約左人,所以時間緊迫,拿拿聲想搞掂掂算先黎個男上女下,再黎狗仔,D水真係多到唔知點講可以話係潮吹咁,係咁噴出黎,見到咁既情況我冇耐已經忍唔住出左,沖涼後佢就去左搵FD,宜我就有D內疚最後我地只係有這一次,耐唔耐就MSN下咁,當然再打後我唔知仲有冇機會喇

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 12:02 pm

Why not Guest ?The Euro hasn’t lost 15% of its value over the last two months unlike the dollar, AFAIK…Has the ECB started with Quantitative easing ?Has the ECB increased its balance sheet by more than 120% over the last 6 months ?Are inflation expectations in the Eurozone in the mid term in any relation with those in the USA ?Has the Euro lost to Gold over the last few months ?So why do you see the Euro as another weak currency ?

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 12:05 pm

you are not calling the shots, man. they want to buy euros and they can do it – your opinion does not count.

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 12:07 pm

ban this stupid Chinese dog from posting dirty stories! hey, shame on you, the worst from Chinese.

AnonymousJune 2nd, 2009 at 12:13 pm

This has obviously been a tradeable rally that most of us probably missed, as NR has been patting himself on the back about being right 12 to 18 months ago. He’s missing something now. Bright people are making money and he’s still in denial that the market rally is real.

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 12:22 pm

The problem is that the complete urban development of the USA was built around the automobile, not Europe’s.Here lies a great structural disadvantage for the USA, where very few people can survive without a car, unlike in Europe : it will take decades of structural change, infrastructure investments and long term planning to change this. And there seems to be so little impetus to go for it.Net Result is that Americans consume on average twice as much gas per capita than Europeans, and the trend isn’t in closing the gap, quite the contrary.

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 12:36 pm

The story isnt’ over yet !Nobody suggested the rally wasn’t “real”.In 1929, after the crash in October, there was a rally that lasted almost 6 months and took equities up more than 35% before they tumbled down by close to 80% for the following 30 months.In total, there were 6 such rallies during a period of 3 years.One can make money with those rallies, but one must know when to sell, and there lies all the difiiculty.So time will tell who was right or wrong, for the moment, it’s a bit early to wirte dispariging messages about NR.

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 12:48 pm

You can trade all you want, however a lot of us would like to INVEST when the fundamentals indicate that is the right time to jump in.I (we) suspect that the market is being manipulated to accomplish a certain goal, that is raise capital for banks. Since I smell a rat, I will keep my few depreciating $’s in the bank.NR has been clear about this being a bear rally backed with data.

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 1:10 pm

The more they will talk of green shoots, of recovery within short, the more oil and other commodities will surge, the more the dollar will drop, the more inflation expectations will rise, the more bond yields will rise, and the less the recovery will happen and all will come tumbling down, like humpty dumpty.

MichelleJune 2nd, 2009 at 1:16 pm

I agree that the markets are being manipulated to accomplish concurrent goals, but this isn’t to suggest that all stocks will go down if the rally ends. There have been many companies’ stocks that were so severely undervalued that I have been both trading and investing, taking advantage of some great bargains. For those of you willing to take some time to find those undervalued stocks, I am confident you will find many that have low downside risk and huge upside potential.The liquidity crunch we endured created a huge buying opportunity and great buys can still be had. I am hoping for a pullback so I can add to my positions as many of my purchases have already shown huge gains, and the volumes indicate accumulation, not trading. You haven’t missed the boat, but it’s going to take more than just throwing a dart at a dartboard to find them now.

PeteCAJune 2nd, 2009 at 1:29 pm

The on-going financial crisis in the USA has caused a lot of Americans to do some deep thinking about earlier generations of men and women who founded our country – and the values they beleived in. This last week Doug Wakefield and Ben Hill wrote a really good article that captures some of that theme at the following link …Lessons from Andrew CarnegieNote especially the following sentences written by Andrew Carnegie in the 1800′s when the world was experiencing a major financial debt crisis …”The Republic [America] emulated her mother’s [Britain] example and cuts down her debt with unexampled rapidity. It is a curious fact that these, the two English-speaking nations, should be the only ones who resolutely set their faces strongly in the debt-discharging direction.”At that time in American history our leaders shunned national debt and avoided a crisis – through their strong commitment to financial responsibility, hard work, and savings.Something we should think hard about today.PeteCA

SimpleIsBestJune 2nd, 2009 at 1:35 pm

Sad to say that I do not think that those responsible for this mess believe that there is anything wrong. The DENIAL runs deeper now than ever.There is only one way to start making sure that the problem is not repeated, and that is to change the behavior by removing all those who (continue) to perpetrate this nonsense – in govt. and in the financial industry.Use grass roots local, state and federal action to accomplish the govt. portion.As far as the financial sector, just stop doing business with the top banks/brokerages by removing all of your deposits and shifting them to stable, more well-behaved local institutions.Then lower personal consumption and find a sustainable balance for life on individual and community levels. GOOD LUCK TO US ALL !

PeteCAJune 2nd, 2009 at 1:40 pm

The rally in the Chinese Shanghai stock index is also a tradable rally. The difference is that they are not directly manipulating the market like the USA (although they are pouring in significant liquidity), and they are not trying to pump the value of their banks.PeteCA

MichelleJune 2nd, 2009 at 1:55 pm

Global stock markets are being supported (again!) by the very same firms that are supporting our domestic markets. Our liquidity injections are finding their way into foreign markets, and if our spigots are turned off, those markets will sell-off as well.

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 2:01 pm

I live in Western NY and have 3 teens, all of which are looking for jobs to help pay for college and gas for their cars. The problem is there are few jobs out there for college and high school kids. I really don’t know how the next generation of youth is going to afford to go on to college. Without help from parents and unable to get jobs these kids are going to have a hard time. The problem is that older underemployed people are taking the jobs traditionally held by teens. Competition for these jobs is really stiff. I feel for my kids and for myself- because chances are they’ll be living with me for a lot longer than I lived with my parents. That or they’ll do what other unemployed hopeless youth do- join the military or start a revolution or something like that- or maybe they’ll join Obama’s youth brigade?I am seriously scared for my kids future.

phillJune 2nd, 2009 at 2:04 pm

What has been left largely unsaid, in definitive terms, is who the “consensus” of economists work for (largely the investment and banking industry)and where their bread is buttered. This is unlikely to change. Aside from Merideth Whitney’s banking views, few said to get out of the markets as severe troubles lie ahead. Brokereage research will NEVER say it nor will the mutual fund industry. So for those of us who manage client assets we are forced to defy the industry’s views. My experience with clients is they will believe a major firm or the media over my advice far too often. Too bad. The “consensus” has a vested interest in the market machine and so on and on they go.

PeteCAJune 2nd, 2009 at 2:13 pm

Andy Sutton has a nice article at the following link. The whole aticle is worth reading, but his fifth chart is especially worth considering.Long Term Trend of Yield on 10-Year Note Vs 2-Year NoteThis is a chart showing the ratio of the yields between the 10-year Note and the 2-Year Note.Take note (pardon the pun) that we have reached a critical level in this ratio. Compared to a long-term trendline, it has now “peaked”. But I say peaked with inverted commas for a very good reason. First, this whole issue is related to the steepness of the yield curve for US debt. It is a subject that has been worrying the Fed recently – they have even started dropping hints in the media that they were not TRYING to control interest rates on long-term debt. Anything to avoid the perception that something is happening in the bond market that is abnormal.Point being … normally the yield curve would correct itself now and move to become less steep.But what if this doesn’t happen and the ratio ($UST10Y:$UST2Y) keeps increasing and pushes above the historical envelope??? It would mean that investors are fleeing long-term US debt out of a real fear that the United States is reaching a point where it cannot pay back these loans with real value (i.e. bonds are worthless because of risks from high inflation in future or default on obligations). So the behavior of this yield ratio is something to watch closely in the near future.An it goes without saying that a move by the Fed to “correct” this problem and start buying more long-dated debt (by monetization) would be stoke a greater addition to the money supply.PeteCA

PeteCAJune 2nd, 2009 at 2:19 pm

So am I … and every American parent should be. The whole reason that I started studying economics more seriously several years ago – and participating in this forum – was because I was concerned that America’s financial future “did not add up” and the outlook for my kids was not very bright.If America undergoes another revolution, it may not come from reactionary outcasts who are living in bunkers in the mountains. It’s more likely to come from millions of American parents who are “mad as hell” and want something done about the situation.PeteCA

HubbsJune 2nd, 2009 at 2:42 pm

Where in WNY? I grew up in Orchard Park (south of Buffalo)The city has lost half its population, no industry left…not just because of the economy in general, but the oppressive taxes. If people can’t sell their homes there then they are stuck there. Then what?PS: As crazy as it sounds, I really liked WNY, would love to raise my 5 year old daughter there…but the taxes and lack of jobs, especially in the health care industry, quickly put an end to that thought.

MichelleJune 2nd, 2009 at 2:59 pm

As a parent of four daughters, one graduating from college last week and another graduating from high school last night, I too, am concerned. My college graduate had plans to attend nursing school this fall, but nursing demand has plummeted and she is now reconsidering. In the meantime, she took a full-time nanny job for the summer, and who knows after that, and on top of this, she’s getting married (omg!) next week – to a poor college student! Now how in the world are they going to make it on a nanny’s salary?My high school graduate fortunately has a job, but will be attending college out of the area this fall and will have to quit her job and won’t be working during the school year.I’ve resolved to the fact that as parents we are faced with having to help our children more than our parents did as the economic outlook is poor and inflation plus low wage growth has made it impossible for these kids to put themselves through college.In the meantime, my husband and I still need to build our own nest egg and the competing forces for our dollars is becoming fierce. In the end, I feel it’s more important that our daughters can receive a good education and prepare for a competitive workforce as that is, I feel, my parental obligation. If my husband and I don’t have enough to retire on, then I guess we’ll have to move in with our kids. Other cultures do it, why not us?

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 3:02 pm

The more the fed monetizes Long Term debt, the less confidence they give to potential investors in these instruments (and the less interest for the risk), so the less they encourage them to buy these, so the more the fed has to monetize : it’s a spiraling effect.There should come a point where investors will mainly buy short term debt, and the fed will monetize the majority of the long term one.Now that it’s started, I don’t know where it will end. The credit markets have at least 20-24 trillion $ of debt too much, most of it long term. Looks like inflating it away is what’s the plan.

GloomyJune 2nd, 2009 at 3:06 pm

Does it get any clearer than this?“If the U.S. can find a way to protect China’s assets, America’s standing here will increase,” Mr. Yu said in an interview Monday. “We are not going to return to the good old days of 2006. We are going to promote the creation of a new world order.”http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/03/world/asia/03geithner.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 3:12 pm

quite contrary, stupid Chinese still accumulating dollar and Treasury. dont believe any word those Chinese said until back by action. Geithner will trash dollar and Treasury to force China’s hand. Chinese will be in denial for a long time about their dollar and treasury. Watch dollar and treasury go bust and burn.

tutterfrutJune 2nd, 2009 at 3:58 pm

Have been thinking along the same line, Bob.”Sitting on nearly a quarter of the world’s known oil reserves, the kingdom can afford lavish dreams. As crude oil surged to a peak of $147 a barrel in July 2008, the state-owned oil and gas company, Saudi Aramco, generated as much as $1 billion a day in revenue.Foreign HoldingsThe Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency — the nation’s central bank — built up its holdings of foreign assets such as bonds and currencies to $546 billion in October 2008 from $98 billion in 2003. Saudi Arabia’s total 2008 GDP of $482 billion dwarfed that of every other Middle Eastern nation.”http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a0F1sR1E0a4M

MichelleJune 2nd, 2009 at 4:02 pm

Guest, what are your current plans in helping your kids if the economy has a long-term stagnation? How far will you help them? I’m curious just because my situation isn’t that much different than yours.

REDJune 2nd, 2009 at 5:36 pm

Job creation will come from developing alternative energy technologies and sources. With high oil prices, the financial returns from alternative energy all of a sudden become compelling. This is the plan, let oil prices spike, develop alternative energy

MichelleJune 2nd, 2009 at 6:24 pm

Major buying opportunity June 12th, buy buy buy with both fists. GM CDS auction – best opportunity to get back into the market.The market is heading up as there is nobody left to sell. Capitulation DID happen this spring and most of us were late to the party. This is YOUR opportunity – don’t waste it. There’s a ton of cash on the sidelines and it will start pouring in. Prepare now and get ready to buy, but wait for the pullback, and don’t buy until June 11th or 12th, which ever day gives us the biggest pullback.

AnonymousJune 2nd, 2009 at 7:01 pm

here is the linkThe Emergence of President Obama’s Muslim Roots >June 02, 2009 6:58 PM”ABC News’ Jake Tapper and Sunlen Miller report: The other day we heard a comment from a White House aide that never would have been uttered during the primaries or general election campaign.During a conference call in preparation for President Obama’s trip to Cairo, Egypt, where he will address the Muslim world, deputy National Security Adviser for Strategic Communications Denis McDonough said “the President himself experienced Islam on three continents before he was able to — or before he’s been able to visit, really, the heart of the Islamic world — you know, growing up in Indonesia, having a Muslim father — obviously Muslim Americans (are) a key part of Illinois and Chicago.”The above excerpt is the heart of the issue – just like Obama threw Pastor Wright under the bus when it did not suit his political ambition so too die he deny his Muslim heritage – it’s good to see that he coming to terms with his identity.

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 7:18 pm

Farsighted and fascinating predictions for a new world order in which America is no longer number oneThe world is now at a hinge moment in its history, according to veteran international correspondent Paul Starobin. A once-dominant America has reached the end of its global ascendancy, and the question of what will come next, and how quickly, is not completely clear. Already the global economic crisis, in exposing the tarnished American model of unfettered free-market capitalism, is hastening the transition to the next, After America, phase of global history.According to Starobin, the After America world is being driven less by virulent anti- Americanism than by America’s middling status as a social, economic, and political innovator; by long-wave trends like resurgent nationalism in China, India, and Russia; and by the growth of transnational cultural, political, and economic institutions. While what is going to come next has not been resolved, we can discern certain narratives that are already advancing. In this sense, the After America age is already a work in progress—pregnant with multiple possibilities.In this book, which masterfully mixes fresh reportage with rigorous historical analysis, Starobin presents his farsighted and fascinating predictions for the After America world. These possibilities include a global chaos that could be dark or happy, a multipolar order of nationstates, a global Chinese imperium, or—even more radically—an age of global city-states or a universal civilization leading to world government. Starobin feels that the question of which narrative will triumph may be determined by the fundamental question of identity: how people determine their allegiances, whether to the tribe, nation-state, city-state, or global community.There will be surprises, Starobin thinks. In the After America world, both the nation-state and the traditional empire may lose ground to cosmopolitan forces like the city- state and the universal civilization. California—the eighth largest economy in the world and the most future- oriented place in America—is becoming an After America landscape, as illustrated by postnational, multicultural Hollywood. Prestigious educational institutions like Harvard are migrating from an American to a global identity and thus becoming part of an After America universal civilization. While these changes may feel unsettling, our best hope for adapting to an After America world is by becoming better borrowers of the best ideas and practices developed all around the planet.Thought provoking and well argued, After America offers a way to think about a dramatically changing world in which the United States is no longer number one. Starobin’s tone is sober but in the end hopeful—the age After America need not be a disaster for America, and might even be liberating.http://us.penguingroup.com/nf/Book/BookDisplay/0,,9781101054161,00.html

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 7:31 pm

@PeteCABecause you have very strong grip on economics i always thought that you had background in economics. If it wasn’t economics that what was it? if you don’t mind me asking. :)

MichelleJune 2nd, 2009 at 7:36 pm

HELLO!? WHERE IS EVERYBODY??? Ya think that maybe everyone’s moved on and is no longer reading this board since we are in a new bull market?

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 7:44 pm

I have lived in US fro 15 years but i am originally from asia. In our culture over there parrents support their kids to best of their abilities even if parrents have to sacifice a lot. Kids stay wit their parrents till they are married. When all the kids are married and parrents are old they live the child of their choice :) but mostly with male childeren since their is no concept of nursing homes. Old parrents are very well respected and pampered becuase its a social stigma to not to. I think there were same values over here back in 1700′s and 1800′s over here but capitalism( american capitilism which is a extreme form of capitalism and i am not a socialist or comunist) eroded these values.

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 8:51 pm

Youare reading it! Feel free to invest according to your opinion and God Bless. If you’re right you can laugh all the way to the bank.

MichelleJune 2nd, 2009 at 9:01 pm

I just don’t see a catalyst that will create more selling to the degree in which we’ve already seen. We certainly have fundamental problems that need to be addressed, but liquidity will prevail and we will again see a jobless recovery. Bogus? Yes. Profitable? Yes. Very low downside risk? Yes.

MarkJune 2nd, 2009 at 9:11 pm

I think that there’s still a heavy tendency to believe in the “it’ll work out in the long-run,” that is, “go long.” To some degree thinking long-run is correct, but it’s a matter of what one is espousing that is being pushed for the long-run, and herein lies the problem: the built-in inequities are perpetuated, which can only result in eventual failure.It’s the System!Mark

MandarinJune 2nd, 2009 at 9:14 pm

When you’re deep enough in debt, your banker becomes your partner.The fate of the dollar and of Treasury debt depends on a combination of spending cuts (Soc Security and Medicare, ending the Iraq/Afghanistan/Pakistan war) and tax increases to balance the budget. Otherwise today’s deficits – very hard to fund – will become totally unamanageable in the near future. That’s the message the Chinese are sending. What they don’t yet know is that Obama’s “left wing cover” for austerity is by no means a done deal.

MarkJune 2nd, 2009 at 9:14 pm

Yeah, how can the UK improve when its North Sea oil fields are in rapid decline (and it faces increasing trade deficits due to energy imports)?Same basic issue holds for many other countries.MarkBTW – One of my metrics is the CAD.

MarkJune 2nd, 2009 at 9:24 pm

The pre-capita income of the Saudis is dropping. I would argue that this point is not lost on the US government and that they see it necessary that oil prices not drop too far lest there be a huge upheaval and the world is faced with a sizable drop in global production.Mark

MarkJune 2nd, 2009 at 9:34 pm

And who is going to buy? The US won’t be able to export because it cannot compete due to low wages elsewhere; and, clearly, internal-only consumption won’t resolve the debt problems: yeah, rest of the world, hang on while we revamp our granite-counter-top-homes with wind/solar, we’ll get back to that debt issue later, honest!But you’re right, it will be blown up into another bubble, only, it can never be what the housing market was (because consumers are tapped out!).More so than more jobs, debt reduction is key. That’s why I’d posted an article the other day that suggested that we’d be better off just giving everyone money (so that they could pay off their debts) rather than creating government subsidized jobs (which will be, invariably, not what the marketplace needs).Mark

FEDupJune 2nd, 2009 at 9:36 pm

I need 3 drinks: in following this thread I recapped my own somber adventure: sold my expensive home in CA in 2005 at peak (very smart) moved family to Florida and bought alot of real estate (very dumb), but cost of living much less (very smart) until today when our Governor Crist just announced an 8-15% rise in tuition for all public universities which my daughter happens to be starting this August (very dumb). So, on paper that’s 2 very dumb moves against 2 very smart moves, yet in reality, I feel screwed. Honey, what do we have to drink?

MarkJune 2nd, 2009 at 9:41 pm

While they can buy raw materials, what are they going to do with them? Build more stuff that the rest of the world can’t afford? Well, maybe some of the “emerging economies,” but not a very big consumer base (they would look to invest their wealth in their own manufacturing).But yes, the US can no longer whip people around and force them to take the US’s proposals or else.In the future the USD will only buy “Iraqi” oil!Mark

MarkJune 2nd, 2009 at 9:52 pm

It reminds me of a safety poster at work which shows someone at the “Pearly Gates” stating that “I’d only ever had one accident!”I’ve done pretty good with what I have, and could have made things look even better had I jumped ALL IN. But it then becomes an issue of when to jump out.If things were so easy then all the big players would be engaging in the same actions; unfortunately, this then would result in a dilution, which wouldn’t result in all that great of returns (compared the the initially advertised ones). Nassim Taleb has a great paper on predictability.“When you find that you are on the side of the majority, it’s time to pause and reflect.” – Mark TwainMark

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 9:54 pm

Being right a few times does not mean you will be right going forward. You are making a perceptive error based on a few cases.

MichelleJune 2nd, 2009 at 10:05 pm

Whatever. I think you’re missing the big picture since most everyone thinks this is a sucker’s rally, and everywhere I go and all the posts I read on other blogs are SO gloomy that no wonder they’ve missed the boat. Oh well.Octavio also thought I was a fool when I bought on the Lehman bankruptcy date, when we darn near suffered a financial meltdown and instead I earned a 25% return in ONE day. This isn’t about bragging, this is about understanding what’s driving the markets. I understand the liquidity forces behind these markets, and that liquidity is running freely these days. My goal is only to share my understanding, and instead I’m being thrown under the bus. I’ll keep information to myself and let you guys guess when it’s safe to jump back in.

PeteCAJune 2nd, 2009 at 10:25 pm

My background is in engineering and science. Economics, when it is studied as an academic discipline, is an enjoyable pursuit. But figuring out how the Fed and Wall St. banks have engineered this to achieve the “Frankenstein creation of American finance” was much harder thing to do … they try to keep it all hidden :-) PeteCA

PeteCAJune 2nd, 2009 at 10:26 pm

I see you’ve got a tan. Hope you brought us back some souvenirs from your vacation.PeteCA

NostradamusJune 2nd, 2009 at 10:43 pm

Now that Bank of America, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley have finished their capital-raising stock sales, how soon will it be “bombs away” for the market and a whopping great decline?

MarkJune 2nd, 2009 at 10:46 pm

It would be interesting to get a longer historical perspective on this. But it sure does look bad. This will just make it that much more difficult to refinance all those mortgages (ARMS are going to get absolutely nailed). And… at at time when job losses are mounting! Scary thought: having to sell one’s home to the Chinese for worthless USD!Mark

MarkJune 2nd, 2009 at 10:47 pm

Oh, and this is why we need to hang onto our national parks: they’ll end up like Indian reservations for white folks!Mark

MarkJune 2nd, 2009 at 10:53 pm

Will you people go away?!Go play party politics with the little kids on some Limbaugh site or something!Mark

MarkJune 2nd, 2009 at 10:58 pm

We are “evolving” (apologists for nationalism would say “devolving”) into geo-regional entities. Pretty much as predicted by the back-to-the-landers as well as high thinkers like Richard C. Duncan. If anything is predictable, this is.Mark

MandarinJune 2nd, 2009 at 11:01 pm

Actually the deal won’t close until June 15, so the rally may have legs until the middle of the month.

GuestJune 2nd, 2009 at 11:20 pm

Geithner faces sluggish market, rents out NY homeTreasury secretary grapples with sluggish market — for his own suburban NY homeNEW YORK (AP) — The real estate market’s troubles are hitting close to home for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.After reducing the price on his house in a tony New York City suburb to less than he paid for it, Geithner still couldn’t sell and recently rented it out instead, according to real estate agents familiar with the deal.Geithner put his five-bedroom Tudor near leafy Larchmont on the market for $1.635 million in February, after heading to Washington for his job as the nation’s top economic official.A few weeks after the asking price was dropped to $1.575 million, the home was rented for $7,500 a month on May 21, said the agents, Scott Stiefvater of Stiefvater Real Estate and Debbie Meiliken of Keller Williams Realty New York.Neither was directly involved in the rental; the name of the broker and agency that arranged it were not immediately available.Although $7,500 might seem like a lot of rent, it probably falls a bit short of the monthly mortgage payments on the Geithners’ two loans totaling $1.25 million, plus $27,000 a year in property taxes.Treasury Department representatives didn’t immediately return calls about Geithner’s home Monday and Tuesday. He was in Beijing for talks with Chinese leaders.Records show Geithner and his wife, Carole Sonnenfeld Geithner, paid $1.602 million for the home in 2004.The roller-coaster housing market helped spawn the recession Geithner is tasked with ending. Nationwide, the median home price in April — $170,200 — was more than 15 percent lower than in the same month last year.Prices have declined at about the same rate in Geithner’s home base of Westchester County, which includes a string of upscale suburbs north of New York City. At $532,000, the median Westchester home price in the first quarter of this year is at a level last seen in 2003, according to the Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service. Sales have been especially slow in the $1 million-plus range, the real estate information service said.Despite some signs of a national housing-market turnaround, analysts expect prices to take some time to stabilize because of the overload of homes available.In the meantime, many homeowners, like the Geithners, are deciding to rent their properties, brokers say.Some are buying themselves time to wait for prices to rise. Others are trying to cut the cost of carrying their unsold homes, even if their tenants’ rent doesn’t entirely cover it.”There are people who just cannot come down off their asking price because they just cannot afford to lose $200,000 or $300,000, so they’re saying, ‘Let me just put a Band-Aid on it temporarily,’” Stiefvater said. “Losing a couple of thousand versus $5,000 or $6,000 a month, that’s a lot better.”Geithner, 47, was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York before becoming treasury secretary.His Westchester home has a Larchmont mailing address but is just outside the village boundaries in the town of Mamaroneck, a yachting hub and the home of the Winged Foot Golf Club, a frequent site of professional championships.The 1931 home has been renovated, making it appealing to renters looking for a ready-to-move-in home, Meiliken said.”Geithner’s house was definitely something that you could be happy to live in for a while without having to put any money in it,” she said.http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Geithn…9661.html?.v=3

MarkJune 2nd, 2009 at 11:25 pm

Quite sad that these same people were incapable of revolting against crimes against humanity committed in their name: illegal wars of aggression.But… it’s not the US government that is the bill collector (tax collector yes), it’s other countries. And sad that this would be, no, check that, how hypocritical it would be to lash out against creditors when the US has historically stomped others into paying Their debts.Maybe the US is pinning its hopes on oil revenues from its conquests in the Middle East? Damn Iraqis! Oops, I mean, terrorists!Mark

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 12:41 am

dont believe any word those Chinese said until back by action.he he, that is exactly what folks are saying about the U.S. government.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 12:43 am

We are going to promote the creation of a new world order.

Again? Bush just changed the world order a few years back (supposedly).How many New World Orders do we need?

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 3:31 am

I take issue with the comment “the tarnished American model of unfettered free-market capitalism”. Surely he could have just said “Fraud”? Free-market capitalism, when conducted ethically and honestly, works. It is only when you throw fraud and greed into the mix that problems occur.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 4:24 am

It is the System only as far as people are willing to be dictated by it.Another issue is that many people believe that it is fully possible to talk the economy up or down, i.e. that negative views can well become self-fulfilling prophecies and that positive views can rescue an economy that is down the tube.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 4:31 am

I would be very very surprised if California is still the eighth largest economy in the world, after all since they do not MANUFACTURE STUFF but mainly SHOP FOR STUFF (in other words a so-called “Service Economy” like the rest of USA) and shopping is one economical activity that has been seriously reduced in USA since 2006.The story of CA being the eighth largest economy could actually be one of those 1990′s myths…

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 4:35 am

Looks like one of those books that mixes some known facts with some generally accepted beliefs and formulates a future view using some nice vocabulary. In other words could be as incorrect as many past “Thought provoking and well argued” books.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 5:13 am

Why don’t those F…ers just invest in their own country!!! Instead of waging currency wars on the world

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 6:25 am

If you have such prescience then how many billions are you worth? I am not trying to throw you under the bus. You are making a common error and I suspect you will give back your 25 percent gain in short order. Also, I cannot agree that everyone thinks this is a bear market rally. Yesterday the news was full of bulls touting better than expected economic news and using these figures to justify the leg up in the market.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 6:30 am

Mark, they can buy the commodities and delude themselves, at least over the short term, that they have an appreciating asset. As you point out, they’ll eventually find out that the world isn’t purchasing their stuff and the copper they are paying $2.30 a pond for will be back at a buck fifty.

RealistJune 3rd, 2009 at 6:44 am

If they cannot afford to lose $200k or $300k now, it does not seem likely they will be able to afford $400k or $500k later. The market is the market. It does not care what the participants can or cannot afford to lose.There are many people in this situation in their primary and second homes, holding on for the gamble that the market will come back. Never mind that the peak price was illusory. At some point, many will be forced to capitulate.

GirafJune 3rd, 2009 at 6:55 am

Michelle, your thoughts here are wildly at odds with earlier posts on this thread. Here, you are concerned about your retirement savings and getting your kids through school. Earlier, you were touting the raging bull argument.Bottom line is that all these demographic forces are hugely deflationary. All across the western world, people like you and I are feeling the pinch. Our focus going forward has to be on saving, not spending. Western economies have been built on us continuing to consume. Where is economic growth going to come from if we all keep our hands in our pockets? In my view, all this stuff about global growth coming from emerging markets is claptrap. They make stuff to sell to us. “But they’ll switch to domestic consumption” argue the EM bulls. Trouble is, the aggregate personal incomes in those countries can in no way replace their export sales to the US, EU, UK, Canada, etc.Better go have a few more drinks but stay with the cheap stuff :)

MichelleJune 3rd, 2009 at 7:10 am

It’s not prescience, it’s information. I’ve posted auction dates here plenty of times and I’m sure other posters will attest to this.I have been trading in and out of the market through all the turmoil, and it’s too bad I’m not a billionaire by now. Guess it depends where you start from!Keep believing that the market moves on economic news and fundamentals, that’s what most believe. I however, do not.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 7:10 am

The interesting question that needs to be asked is how “the public servant” Geithner managed the wherewithall to purchase a house for $1.6 million, with mortgages of $1.25 million, in the first place. As a “public servant” I wouldn’t have thought he would have had income levels to support it. Hmmm???

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 7:22 am

thank you everyone for being honest and open. reading real life situations makes me feel comforted in all that i have lost in the past 2 years and in comfort i find whats really important

GirafJune 3rd, 2009 at 7:26 am

Hi Pete.Rather than investors fleeing longer Treasuries, I think the answer is that we are running out of buyers, that supply is simply exceeding demand. I found it interesting when the Fed announced back in March that they would buy $300 billion of longer dated Treasuries in the following six months. The ten year, in a matter of minutes, traded down from a 3% yield to 2.5%. What were the players thinking? The Treasury was going to have to issue $2+ trillion of new securities (in addition to rolling over maturing bills, notes and bonds)in the coming 12 months. Did Bernanke & Co actually believe they could get longer rates down by such paltry intervention? The market initially thought so but here we are at 3.65% and look to be heading higher.The classical economists will tell you that such a steep curve is positive for the economy but in this case it’s nor. The Feds can control short rates but not longer rates. Supply and demand will continue to do that and the curve should get steeper.Unfortunately, there is some nastiness hidden in this back up in longer rates. Banks have been huge buyers of Treasury securities, investing almost all of the trillions of dollars of Fed injected liquidity into that asset class. “The plan” was that the positive yield curve, i.e. cost of deposits close to zero, with Treasuries yielding something positive, would generate a large earnings flow for the banks and recapitalise them in a hurry. Now if any of these banks got greedy and bought 5 year notes, or for goodness sake, 10 year notes, they are badly underwater from year end prices and the outlook is becoming more grim. (Unless reality takes hold in the stock market, that those players realise there is no economic recovery, just a less rapid contraction, and that the indices retest March lows). What was expected to be a boon for the banks is now quickly becoming the source of further writeoffs.

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 7:46 am

It’s all in the numbers!We are on pace for a loss of 6.5M – 7M jobs in 2009. Add that to the 4.5 million lost in 2008 and that will be 11 million JOBS LOST or so. How many have bene created? and what was created was at what salary, 20-35K? a few higher… Folks jus,t like the 1930′s this is going to last a long time and this time there is not enough Govt money or jobs to get us out of it. it make take 20 years for a TOTAL RESET.If Obama doesn’t Spend….We CRASH!!!!!The gross domestic product (GDP) or gross domestic income (GDI), a basic measure of an economy’s economic performance, is the market value of all final goods and services made within the borders of a nation in a year.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_productOur Economy is about $13 Trillion per year as widely reported.Of that amount, approximately half, or $6.5 Trillion, is directly or indirectly related to government spending on the Federal, State, and Local levels…..http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/index.php?year=2009Think about that for a second…about half of our current GDP is government spending….and as the overleveraged consumer keeps cutting back… the economy will contract further….and more then half of the economy MUST be based on government spending or EVEN further contraction will result.All was fine when the Private Side was making handsome incomes due to selling and producing stuff like America did from 1950 to 1980 and paying lots of taxes….but that is not the case anymore since we have moved productivity overseas.Much of the nonsense economists talk about is just that….if you don’t produce you don’t sell and if you don’t sell you don’t make an income, and if you don’t make an income you don’t pay taxes…plain and simple.Due to a contracting economy, primarily driven by fewer consumers borrowing drivng less sales and less tax revenues, the government MUST borrow MORE AND MORE money to keep the government machine spending and the economy rolling despite tax revenues evaporating.Since we weren’t producing much, as long as Consumers borrowed and Government borrowed, and all was fine as long as we could find someone to lend and we collectively could spend. During the boom banks lent to consumers freely and foreigners lent to President Bush until banks and foreigners realized we simply borrowed too much slowed lending as it became much more difficult to service the debt.Now banks are not lending to consumers and the government is compelling banks to lend to it by loaning banks taxpayer money at 1/4% and the banks loaning it right back to us at 4%. It is fine at the beginning….until you realize banks not loaning to consumers is going to drive down the other half of the economy draining the little in dwindling revenues left to the government and eventually morphing our economy into one almost entirely dependent on government borrowing and spending to survive.Due to fewer funds flowing into non government side of our economy…our private economy is becoming much poorer much faster….dwot cited an excellent example:http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=204554&……Mathematically private slowing will continue due to the very high leverage on the Private Side as more and more dwindling dollars are simply allocated to paying interest due to revenues evaporating and NOT money spent goods and services. As the Private economy shrinks, the whole economy will shrink including tax revenues so the government will be forced to borrow even more to just keep things afloat.So long as government keeps borrowing it can keep spending….. HOWEVER, interest obligations will grow and grow sucking dollars away from goods and services it purchases, with time a greater and greater percentage of a contracting economy will be directly consumed by rising interest payments resulting in LESS government spending and further contraction. Due to unstainable interest obligations, it is not too far off now where we will rapidly degenerate into hyperinflation due to borrowing exponentially more and more just to pay interest causing the dollar to crash and prices to rise. In such an environment, wages will NEVER be able to keep up with exploding commodity price and unfortunately many will starve.This is the Paradox….does government keep borrowing EVER INCREASING amounts shifting the burden of taxing on fewer and fewer until the few will be forced to pay 100% of their income and assets, or does government slow spending, drive our nation into a DEPRESSION, and we take our medicine now?????Right now a BIG part of government spending is feeding, housing, and providing medical care to the poor and elderly driving sales at Hospitals, Clinics, WalMart and Walgreens and a variety of other retailers across America. As fewer and fewer can borrow, fewer and fewer will be able to pay taxes and the burden on sustaining our nation’s rising number of poor and elderly will rest on the shoulders of those that have something to offer…and in the not too distant future…..all what they have will not be enough to sustain a $13 Trillion dollar economy.It is easy to grow an economy when you can borrow seemingly limitless amounts of money….it is impossible when you can’t and you have nothing to sell.It is now time for Americans to take responsiblity for America….or soon few us will have anything to offer anyone.Welcome to Zombulation…….it has arrived!!!!Now ask yourself……what will the public do when they really find out what is going on and are we ready for the task??????

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 7:50 am

Bankers Lament Fed “Bait and Switch:”Decry Increased Capital Requirements, Insult Geithner (my headline)from Bloomberg:”JPMorgan Chase & Co. and American Express Co. were told they need to boost common equity (to repay TARP), less than four weeks after being informed they had enough to withstand a deeper economic slump. Morgan Stanley was directed to raise more funds after already selling stock to cover its stress-test shortfall…The Fed’s demands also partly reflect the biggest three- month rally in U.S. financial shares in at least two decades, which has made it easier for banks to raise the funds….JPMorgan’s (Jamie) Dimon (read) a mock letter to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner:“Dear Timmy, we are happy to be able to pay back the $25 billion you lent us,” Dimon said at the 31st Annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference. “We hope you enjoyed the experience as much as we did.”(Dimon added) “If we don’t get out of TARP, we’d be very surprised. We don’t think we should be surprised.”http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajQ3cx_jGULI

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 7:51 am

This is what people have refused to do. They have counted the cost of doing something radical. It’s high. They have counted the immediate cost of doing nothing new. It seems low. They prefer doing nothing.But what about the long term? What about:1. Retirement (no Social Security or Medicare)2. The Federal Deficit ($1.8 trillion this year)3. Federal Reserve’s monetary base (doubled)4. Falling house prices5. Rising unemployment6. The war in Afghanistan (forever, until our defeat)”No problem!”How do you reason with these people? Answer: you don’t, if you value your time and your privacy. If you turn out to be wrong, you will be ridiculed or at least treated as a child. If you are correct, you will be hated. You will also be hit up for money. If you are a Christian, you will be told you are heartless. You will become a line of credit for those whose mantra was “No problem!”Rest of article: http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north718.html#?

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 7:58 am

Mandarin above said the magic words. “Obama’s left wing cover for austerity”. The elite have no intention to institute a progressive marginal tax rate reform not topay more for capital gains and dividends. That leaves a survival of the fittest,NO ECONOMIC STABILIZERS STRATEGY. All Social Programs will be evicerated and whoever can survive will and whoever can’t can’t. This is the opposite of the European Social Democratic State. This is a Chinese model. If you are poor and show no survival skills, you are screwed. If you show survival skills, you are allowed to be exploited. AUSTERITY MEASURES that dismantle all social government spending is the objective. Civil Society will crumble. Obama was brought in to manage an austerity revolution with a smile.

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 8:01 am

None of the Govt fixes have worked or are working: Not fixing housing, not creating jobs, not fixing the auto industry, not fixing health care…nothing….This is becoming such a joke these days listening to people and pundits say things are better… I would be the first one to admit it too, if things were better, but the NUMBERS and Fundamentals do not lie. And niether does what my own 2 eyes see, and that is shuttered auto dealers, big box retail, strip malls, less traffic, rising gas again, many friends unemployed, for sale and foreclusre signs all over, big time lower attenedance at MLB games, less foot traffic in stores,… and rising prices in food and neccessitiesThe Only fix that has occured is ensuring the Banks and the Rich have kept thier pockets lined…Foreclosures: No End in SightA continuing steep drop in home prices combined with rising unemployment is powering a new wave of foreclosures. Unfortunately, there’s little evidence, so far, that the Obama administration’s anti-foreclosure plan will be able to stop it.The plan offers up to $75 billion in incentives to lenders to reduce loan payments for troubled borrowers. Since it went into effect in March, some 100,000 homeowners have been offered a modification, according to the Treasury Department, though a tally is not yet available on how many offers have been accepted.That’s a slow start given the administration’s goal of preventing up to four million foreclosures. It is even more worrisome when one considers the size of the problem and the speed at which it is spreading. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported last week that in the first three months of the year, about 5.4 million mortgages were delinquent or in some stage of foreclosure.Not all of those families will lose their homes. Some will find the money to catch up on their payments. Others will qualify for loan modifications that allow them to hang on. But as borrowers become more hard pressed, lenders — whose participation in the Obama plan is largely voluntary — may not be able or willing to keep up with the spiraling demand for relief.One of the biggest problems is that the plan focuses almost entirely on lowering monthly payments. But overly onerous payments are only part of the problem. For 15.4 million “underwater” borrowers — those who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth — a lack of home equity puts them at risk of default, even if their monthly payments have been reduced. They have no cushion to fall back on in the event of a setback, like job loss or illness.This page has long argued that a robust anti-foreclosure plan should directly address the plight of underwater homeowners by reducing the loans’ principal balance. That would restore some equity to borrowers — and give them a further incentive to hold on to their homes — in addition to lowering monthly payments. The mortgage industry has resisted this approach, and the Obama plan does not emphasize it.With joblessness rising, lower monthly payments could quickly become unaffordable for many Americans. In a recent report, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston argued that unemployment is driving foreclosures and to make a difference, anti-foreclosure policy should focus on helping unemployed homeowners. The report suggests a temporary program of loans or grants to help them pay their mortgages while they look for another job.The government will also have to make far more aggressive efforts to create jobs. The federal stimulus plan will preserve and generate a few million jobs, but that will barely make a dent — in the overall economic crisis or the foreclosure disaster. Since the recession began in December 2007, nearly six million jobs have been lost, and millions more are bound to go missing before this downturn is over.President Obama needs to put more effort and political capital into promoting the middle-class agenda that he outlined during the campaign, including a push for new jobs in new industries, expanded union membership and a fairer distribution of profits among shareholders, executives and employees.There will be no recovery until there is a halt in the relentless rise in foreclosures. Foreclosures threaten millions of families with financial ruin. By driving prices down, they sap the wealth of all homeowners. They exacerbate bank losses, putting pressure on the still fragile financial system. Lower monthly payments are a balm, but they are no substitute for home equity. And until more Americans can find a good job and a steady paycheck, the number of foreclosures will continue to rise.http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/02/opinion/02tue1.html?_r=1

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 8:06 am

MM CA is our resident genius, all other discussions are not getting to the heart of the matter. Our consumption economy is unsustainable. We had money to create a radical production program, but we gave it to the megabanks. We should have cut the megabanks out of the loop and used the money to benefit the production economy. We can’t even account for the money given to the megabanks.

see.clayJune 3rd, 2009 at 8:07 am

+1I see the same thing here in UT and alot of angry people. I walk around with a smile because I weigh half what I did last year, have a great job and people that love me, but this whole “less bad” mantra is stupid. If I am running a deficit it sucks regardless of the amount. Smoke and mirrors, creative accounting and blatant lies.

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 8:09 am

FLASH: April unemployment numbers revised upwards by 50,000… How can they be off 10% or more on projections every month… and its not just unemployment numbers. its every god dam statistic they publish and report on… Do you or anyone really beleive anything these days…. You or I would be fired if we made 10% or more mistakes in our job…Oh and 2 Trillion dollar deficts for this year and next year is a pipe dream… they will say they didnt realize or estimate thier tax revenue base would decline by 20-40%… If i knew that a few months ago and definatley know that now how come the Gov’t PPT dont seem to know it? I laugh all the time these days at the ingorance of the idiots in charge and to some extent my fellow citizins for believing what Obama, Cramer, Giethner, Bernake, Dimon, Kudlow tell them/us. there is an idiot on Fox B right now stating how elated he is we only lost 530k jobs in May… I wish all 530K people would go stand outside fox studios and tell him and the idiots on Fox not to be so happy about thier misery.

MichelleJune 3rd, 2009 at 8:15 am

Giraf,I agree, my posts certainly seem inconsistent.Spending well over $100k on daycare over the years, plus raising 4 kids, has been a very expensive venture. Hence, less retirement savings. Being younger and more trusting, I believed in buy and hold and dollar cost averaging, and my 401(k) got trashed in the 2001 bear market, hence, less retirement savings. Fortunately, I moved my 401(k) out of stocks long before this last downturn and instead have been using my trading account to make money. Unfortunately, my stock trading account isn’t as well funded as my 401(k). I no longer believe in buy and hold and dollar cost averaging as I now believe the paradigm has shifted.I agree, the deflationary forces are strong and will continue for some time, but I also believe that TPTB will stop at nothing to reflate our crippled economy, driving up prices via speculative behavior, higher taxes, etc. College tuition costs are increasing at a rate of 10% annually, which means there’s more cash out of my pocket. College funds set aside have unfortunately not even come close to cover these increases. So yeah, we are all feeling the pinch.In light of all this, I honestly believe that the stock market will go up because of all this liquidity, but also staying abreast of any changes in this liquidity that may make me change my mind.

see.clayJune 3rd, 2009 at 8:21 am

you must be my long lost twin…It humors me to actually read the financial headlines and then compare the same data in a different article, it never equates, maybe I was out that year in math class.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 8:25 am

Mark Ames, Alternet – Last month, a little-known company where [Larry] Summers served on the board of directors received a $42 million investment from a group of investors, including three banks that Summers, Obama’s effective “economy czar,” has been doling out billions in bailout money to: Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley. The banks invested into the small startup company, Revolution Money, right at the time when Summers was administering the “stress test” to these same banks.A month after they invested in Summers’ former company, all three banks came out of the stress test much better than anyone expected — thanks to the fact that the banks themselves were allowed to help decide how bad their problems were (Citigroup “negotiated” down its financial hole from $35 billion to $5.5 billion.)The fact that the banks invested in the company just a few months after Summers resigned suggests the appearance of corruption, because it suggests to other firms that if you hire Larry Summers onto your board, large banks will want to invest as a favor to a politically-connected director.Last month, it was revealed that Summers, whom President Obama appointed to essentially run the economy from his perch in the National Economic Council, earned nearly $8 million in 2008 from Wall Street banks, some of which, like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, were now receiving tens of billions of taxpayer funds from the same Larry Summers. It turns out now that those two banks have continued paying into Summers-related businesses.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 8:27 am

Geoffrey Lean, The Independent – One billion people will go hungry around the globe next year for the first time in human history, as the international financial crisis deepens, the United Nations has told The Independent.The shocking landmark will be passed – despite a second record worldwide harvest in a row – because people are becoming too destitute to buy the food that is produced.Decades of progress in reducing hunger are being abruptly reversed, dealing a devastating blow to a pledge by world leaders eight years ago to cut it in half by 2015.Rich countries have failed to provide promised money to boost agriculture in the Third World; the financial crisis is starving developing countries of credit and driving their people into greater poverty, and food aid to the starving is expected to begin drying up next month.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 8:29 am

Glen Greenwald, Salon – It was one thing when President Obama reversed himself last month by announcing that he would appeal the Second Circuit’s ruling that the Freedom of Information Act compelled disclosure of various photographs of detainee abuse sought by the ACLU. Agree or disagree with Obama’s decision, at least the basic legal framework of transparency was being respected, since Obama’s actions amounted to nothing more than a request that the Supreme Court review whether the mandates of FOIA actually required disclosure in this case. But now — obviously anticipating that the Government is likely to lose in court again — Obama wants Congress to change FOIA by retroactively narrowing its disclosure requirements, prevent a legal ruling by the courts, and vest himself with brand new secrecy powers under the law which, just as a factual matter, not even George Bush sought for himself.The White House is actively supporting a new bill jointly sponsored by Sens. Lindsey Graham and Joe Lieberman — called The Detainee Photographic Records Protection Act of 2009 — that literally has no purpose other than to allow the government to suppress any “photograph taken between September 11, 2001 and January 22, 2009 relating to the treatment of individuals engaged, captured, or detained after September 11, 2001, by the Armed Forces of the United States in operations outside of the United States.” As long as the Defense Secretary certifies — with no review possible — that disclosure would “endanger” American citizens or our troops, then the photographs can be suppressed even if FOIA requires disclosure. The certification lasts 3 years and can be renewed indefinitely. The Senate passed the bill as an amendment last week.Just imagine if any other country did this. Imagine if a foreign government were accused of systematically torturing and otherwise brutally abusing detainees in its custody for years, and there was ample photographic evidence proving the extent and brutality of the abuse. Further imagine that the country’s judiciary — applying decades-old transparency laws — ruled that the government was legally required to make that evidence public. But in response, that country’s President demanded that those transparency laws be retroactively changed for no reason other than to explicitly empower him to keep the photographic evidence suppressed, and a compliant Congress then immediately passed a new law empowering the President to suppress that evidence. What kind of a country passes a law that has no purpose other than to empower its leader to suppress evidence of the torture it inflicted on people? Read the language of the bill; it doesn’t even hide the fact that its only objective is to empower the President to conceal evidence of war crimes.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 8:30 am

CNET – In the first case of its type, a federal judge in California has ruled that police can forcibly take DNA samples, including drawing blood with a needle, from Americans who have been arrested but not convicted of a crime.U.S. Magistrate Judge Gregory Hollows ruled that a federal law allowing DNA samples upon arrest for a felony was constitutional and did not violate the Fourth Amendment’s prohibition of “unreasonable searches and seizures.”Hollows, who was appointed by President George H.W. Bush, said the procedure was no more invasive or worrisome than fingerprinting or a photograph. “The court agrees that DNA sampling is analogous to taking fingerprints as part of the routine booking process upon arrest,” he wrote, calling it “a law enforcement tool that is a technological progression from photographs and fingerprints.”

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 8:35 am

Dont think for one second other states are not seeing this same issue… but i will say, This great state i live in leads the way again… As cali goes so will the rest of the country… Here’s a quick fix, get rid of California and the rest of the US gets fixed…lolCalifornia is paying out so much for jobless benefits and collecting so little in payroll taxes that its unemployment insurance fund could be $17.8 billion in debt by the end of 2010, according to a new report from the state Employment Development Department.This latest fiscal crisis won’t immediately affect the 1.1 million Californians now collecting benefits because the state is using an interest-free federal loan to cover their checks.But the state is supposed to repay that loan and restore its unemployment fund to solvency by 2011 – and right now, policymakers aren’t sure exactly how to do that, or at what cost.”The deficit that California looks like it is facing is staggering,” said Bud Bridger, fiscal officer for the unemployment insurance program.To rebalance the system and pay back the federal loan, lawmakers must raise payroll taxes on employers, reduce benefits for recipients, or both.In 2009 and 2010, the state expects to pay out $29 billion in benefits. It will collect just $11 billion. Counting the small positive balance that was in the fund at the end of 2008, the result is a $17.8 billion deficit at the end of 2010.the rest of the article:http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/06/02/MNSG17UR5H.DTL&type=business

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 8:38 am

another idiot on Fox B just said “we can enjoy the inflation that is coming and make lots of money as inflation comes…” and the Fox person agreed… what fucking planet are these people on?My question is who is WE? and Why would anyone enjoy that scenario?I understand why inflation is coming, but i dont beleive for one second why it would be good for about 300 million americans, it brings misery to the nightly dinner table…

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 8:51 am

LOL – But we have the other finger of the gov’t tracking the other fingers to see what they did/do with the money…lol Unbelivable we cannot “follow our money”FBI targets fraud in TARP, stimulus fund: MuellerBuzz up! Print NEW YORK (Reuters) – The FBI and other U.S. agencies are working to prevent fraud and corruption related to government bailout money and the economic stimulus package, in what could be the “next wave” of cases in the financial crisis, FBI Director Robert Mueller said on Tuesday.Mueller said in a speech to the Economic Club of New York that the FBI, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the inspector general of the Troubled Asset Relief Program were working to track where federal money is going.”With billions of dollars at stake — from the purchase of troubled assets to improvements in infrastructure, healthcare, energy and education — even a small percentage of fraud would result in substantial taxpayer losses,” Mueller said.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 8:54 am

“I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of Hypocrisy, Coverups and Corruption, one nation under Elites…”

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 8:59 am

Elites that will bury the rest of us!! Whether we like it or not this is what we get for being passive.

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:00 am

Colusa county in California has 24% unemployment and 26% of its residents on Gov’t assistance. lots of other California counties are in similar poitions. Just like the flu, this stuff spreads… There are NO JOBS, there is NO JOB CREATION UNDERWAY, there is NO MANUFACTURING BASE BEING CREATED and there is NO PRODUCTION of anyhting occuring in general, besides food and energy. OUR BASE HAS BEEN DESTROYED and handed over the BANKS and WALL STREET.So what does the our future look like?

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:14 am

Do not forget this is the same Larry Summers that was President of Harvard until he said that “…math scores of college-bound high school students was a demonstration of genetic differences in math ability in men and women…”Mr Summers was subsequently replaced by a woman.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Summers

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:15 am

The DOW will be at 5000 and the S&P at 475 by Dec 24th, 2009. Merry F..king Christmas everyone!!!! and that is the best case scenario… GDP growth will be -3 to -6% for 2010 too…2010 will be more of the same, NO JOBS, Millions more Foreclusres and Low car sales and on and on. We could also see a halt in 2010 to homeowners being evicted due to foreclosure… the govt is going to have to allow people to stay in thier hosues, especially during the winter… the banks will be screaming, but Obama will have no choice but to allow this…When you have unemployment at offical 12% and unofficial at 20-25% it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out those same percentages can be applied accross every eceonomic indicator such as Federal Tax revenue base, State tax revenue base, Sales tax revenue bases, property tax revenue bases… so the end result will be more printing, but only to pay our foriegn creditors and the banksters, not to help the 300 million americans

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:18 am

When are people going to get it trough their thick heads, there is no such thing as “Government Spending”. All that is happening is that tax payers, current and for generations to come, are having their payments re-circlated, inefficiently, by a bureaucracy that provides nothing. It is so sad how the great unwashed continue to be duped into believing that “Governments” provide anything.

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:22 am

Bernake “fed debt will be 70% of GDP in 2011″ its a shame almsot all Americans have no clue what that means… and he is underestimating it, i beleive we could hit 100% of GDP by then, if only to survive…

Tim the bearJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:29 am

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GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:43 am

Ah, the bear cometh. In the long run, I’ve never known a real bear to be scared by positive views. An imploding economy trumps the axiom above “that positive views can rescue an economy that is down the tube,” every time.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:46 am

Interesting move… Any ideas what’s behind it?http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYqgZUNoD7TwJPMorgan, which has never hired an oil tanker based on data compiled by Bloomberg going back five years, follows companies including Citigroup Inc.’s Phibro LLC unit and BP Plc in hiring ships to store crude or oil products at sea. The firms are seeking to take advantage of higher prices later in the year.

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:57 am

Bernake sounds nervous this morning, they are hammering him with some good questions…. for some reason he is dripping all the potential problems ahead because of all the printing that has occurred… he is stuttering and stammering as he answers…

GirafJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:01 am

It’s because of the contango (future prices higher than spot prices). If you’ve got real money or access to permanent credit, you rent a tanker, buy a load of crude at spot prices and similutaneously sell the crude in the futures market and lock in the spread. Much better than using your excess liquidity to buy Treasury Bills!Perhaps someone else can explain why this contango exists, because it has me stumpted. If I am a user of crude and want to lock in future prices (which seems to be the driving force) why don’t I just do what JPM, Phibro, Goldman et al are doing and rent the very same tankers and do the same trades? One reason, my credit isn’t good enough. I can’t borrow to fund the crude purchase and I don’t have resources sufficient to put up maintainence margin against my short in the futures market. There must be more to it but I’ve been trying to figure it out for about nine months, with not much success.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:15 am

from the Telegraph.co.ukJune 3Barack Hussein Obama: US “one of the largest Muslim countries in the world”link The issue is not one of racism (though a convenient label to dismiss a critic), it is an issue of credibility and integrity.It should be of concern that a key player in solving the economic crisis has a character flaw of a magnitude that would allow him to misrepresent his very identity Muslim, Christian or whatever.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:20 am

He doesn’t want to end up like Greenspan – he only has a year left before Summers replaces him. And you know Summer and friends would hang him out to dry when the S hits the fan in 2011 and beyond.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:35 am

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124181970915002009.htmlThe Curse of the Class of 2009For College Grads Lucky Enough to Get Work This Year, Low Wages are Likely to Haunt Them for a Decade or MoreBy SARA MURRAYThe bad news for this spring’s college graduates is that they’re entering the toughest labor market in at least 25 years.The worse news: Even those who land jobs will likely suffer lower wages for a decade or more compared to those lucky enough to graduate in better times, studies show.Economic research shows that the consequences of graduating in a downturn are long-lasting. They include lower earnings, a slower climb up the occupational ladder and a widening gap between the least- and most-successful grads.In short, luck matters. The damage can linger up to 15 years, says Lisa Kahn, a Yale School of Management economist. She used the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, a government data base, to track wages of white men who graduated before, during and after the deep 1980s recession.Ms. Kahn found that for each percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate, those with the misfortune to graduate during the recession earned 7% to 8% less in their first year out than comparable workers who graduated in better times. The effect persisted over many years, with recession-era grads earning 4% to 5% less by their 12th year out of college, and 2% less by their 18th year out.For example, a man who graduated in December 1982 when unemployment was at 10.8% made, on average, 23% less his first year out of college and 6.6% less 18 years out than one who graduated in May 1981 when the unemployment rate was 7.5%. For a typical worker, that would mean earning $100,000 less over the 18-year period.The impact on wages could be just as severe this time around, says Ms. Kahn. That’s because of the depth of this recession and the possibility that the unemployment rate may approach the 10.8% level not seen since the early 1980s. The rate hit 8.9% in April, the Labor Department reported Friday.One reason behind declining wage potential, economists say: The caliber of jobs available in a recession, and their accompanying wages, tend to suffer. High-end firms hire fewer people and drive down salaries because jobs are in such demand.That means many graduates end up with lower-wage, lower-skill jobs at less-prestigious firms or in firms outside their field of interest. Once the economy picks up and they try for better jobs, these workers have to learn skills they should have been developing immediately out of college. In the meantime, colleagues who graduated in a better economy have already developed these skills and progressed much further.the rest is at the link

AnonymousJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:35 am

You may want to read the latest June report by Bill Gross of Pimco entitled “Staying Rich in the New Normal”. http://www.pimco.com and then “Investment Outlook” –June 2009. He discusses staying in shorter maturity debt instruments…

thimmaJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:37 am

US economic prediction for 10 years – 10T$ GDP (real), 10% unemployment, 10m cars annually, Dow-10K, S&P-1K, inflation 10%.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:40 am

Genesee county- near Darien lake. Man the city is a ghost town- I used to work in downtown Buffalo about 20 years ago and it was bumper to bumper traffic getting downtown. Nowadays you could sail along on the city streets at 50mph if you could, and hardly see anyone. Buildings boarded up, windows smashed, it’s just pathetic. They keep talking about the great potential and all the good ideas to bring life back to it, but seriously I think they should plow it all under and start over- make it a suburb of Amherst which is the real city now. NO One goes downtown unless they have to now. The only draw today is Allentown and the theatre district. We haven’t felt the downturn in housing so much here because we never had a bubble since our economy was already suffering a downturn.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:48 am

PS. It really is a great place to raise a family, if you can find a descent job, there are still a few good white collar jobs around, and plenty if you’re in health care. I put up with the taxes because the cost of living is fairly low compared to other places. Though I’m not sure what’s coming with Paterson now, seems he’ll tax us to death with all the added fees he’s proposing lately. I don’t see how our taxes won’t go up more to close the deficit. So I’d hold off a bit before moving back.

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:00 am

so that is 10 years of misery… cant say i disagree other than Dow- i beleive it will be irrevalent in anywhere from 2-5 years.

Know your real enemyJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:13 am

The rightwing reactionary fear of big government is misplaced fear.It is government, of any size, being controlled (guided, coerced, and limited) by the stratospherically wealthy that you must fear …because your interests are diametrically opposed to the interests of the stratospherically wealthy.Fear stratospheric wealth. It is plundering an entire planet – via usurpation of peoples’ governments.Outlaw stratospheric wealth accumulation, and deconstruct the current billionaires’ stratospheric fortunes.

NoviceJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:16 am

“The sky is falling”…….The sky is falling !!!!”Okay thanks….just had to get in some practice

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:27 am

“Our earth is degenerate in these latter days. There are signs that the world is speedily coming to an end. Bribery and corruption are common.”- Assyrian Clay Tablet, ca. 2800 BCImagine what the world would look like today if people had long ago learned to embrace limits on how rich and how poor people would be allowed to get. Imagine if all the people over the centuries who were starved to death or didn’t get an education had been educated and had lived to contribute to the world’s knowlege base. Can you imagine?

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:33 am

It is an intellectual travesty to label the “fraud” perpetrated by crooks that deal in trillions and trillions of dollars of fake money as a “tarnished American model of unfettered free-market capitalism.”Americans understand what capitalism is. They try to practice it every day. But every day they find themselves with fewer and fewer choices to control their own financial destinies, with fewer choices that show respect for the law of supply and demand. Relentlessly and methodically, the Fed central planners are closing off every investment option, save one—the equities market, a market the Fed manages to its advantage by manipulation and money it prints itself out of thin air.If the Fed should manage to sew up some sort of patched up “recovery” from this social travesty, it will hold only for a very short time. It would be a bubble—a power bubble. And they would have packed it so it can’t delever.They are criminals who have robbed the bank, and are just now running away in their black getaway car.Americans thought, and many still think, they had a system that gave them an even deal, where they could get something out of their hard work. But as more and more Americans lose jobs, homes and pensions; as they suffer alone, silenced by government statistics and media hype advancing a fake prosperity, they are turning on their “central planners.”It is a little early to pronounce the death of capitalism. America and her people no longer can afford these abuses by private interests using this nation’s resources and accomplishments as their personal power base.If there is going to be an America, there can’t be a Fed.You can’t have a people working for a better deal for themselves and for future generations when they are working for the mob.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:36 am

The Democrat and Republican parties are just the left and the right wings of the bird of prey.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:42 am

“To find out the true state of facts, to report them with fidelity, toapply to them strict and fixed principles of justice, humanity and law; to inform as far as possible the very conscience of nations, and to call down the judgment of the world on what is false, or base, or tyrannical, appear to me to be the first duties of those who write.”- Henry Reeve”In the progress of time, and through our own base carelessness andignorance, we have permitted the money industry to attain a political and economic influence so powerful that it has undermined the authority of the state and usurped the power of democratic government.” – Vincent Vickers”The oppressors do not perceive their monopoly of having more as aprivilege which dehumanises others and themselves” – Paolo Freire”Lost to humanity must that person be, who can view without emotion the complicated distress of this injured land. Evil tidings molest ourhabitations and wound our peace. Oh my brother! Oppression is enough to make a wise people mad!” – Elizabeth Peabody”The patience of the oppressed has always been the most inexplicable, as well as probably the most important, fact in all history.”- Author Amos Elon from The Pity of it All”Do you know that the tendrils of graft and corruption have become mighty interlacing roots so that even men who would like to be honest are tripped and trapped by them?” – Agnes Sligh Turnbell, 1888-1982, American novelist”If you do not specify and confront real issues, what you say will surely obscure them. If you do not embody controversy, what you say will be an acceptance of the drift to the coming human hell.”- C. Wright Mills, The Causes of World War III

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:43 am

for ben…(Tom Waits/K. Brennan)who are you?.They’re lining upTo mad dog your tilta whirl3 shots for a dollarWin a real live dollAll the lies that you tellI believed them so well. Take them backTake them back to your red houseFor that fearful leap into the darkI logged in my timeIn the jail of your armsNow Ophelia wants to knowWhere she should turnTell me…what did you doWhat did you do the last time?Why don’t you do thatGo on ahead and take this the wrong wayTime’s not your friendDo you cry.? Do you pray?Do you wish them away?Are you still leave nothingBut bones in the way?Did you bury the carnivalLions and all?Excuse me while I sharpen my nailsAnd just who are you this time?You look rather tired(Who drinks from your shoe)Are you pretending to love?Well I hear that it pays wellHow do your pistol and your Bible and yourSleeping pills go?Are you still jumping out of windows in expensive clothes?Well I fell in loveWith your sailor’s mouth and your wounded eyesYou better get down on the floorDon’t you know this is warTell me who are you this time?Tell me who are you this time?

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:44 am

The Bond Boys are set to pounce. if that happens and Bonds go up, stocks will crash and interest rates will rise. if interest rates rise, there will be no help coming form the consumer in terms of a consumer led recovery. the Fed and the treasury know this and are scared beyond scared as they basically are out of moves. any hint of inflation and interest rates going up and the game will be over.actually inflation has already started (gas up 35%, food up) and interest rates are creeping up. already the past 2 weeks mortgage interest rates have choked off any new mortage applications for even foreclosed housing.

kilgoresJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:56 am

Getting rid of the Fed would be just plain stupid. Those of you calling for it to be dismantled can complain all you want, but our central banking system was created and continues to exist because it serves a number of useful functions for the collective good, not just for the financial industry “mob” (as you characterize it).You think it’s bad NOW? Nobody with a lick of sense would have us return to the chaotic days before the Fed was created. Talk about handing over the farm to the foxes! You might as well just sign up with the corporate banking conglomerates for a lifetime of indentured servitude.SWK

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 12:01 pm

San Francisco Chronicle May 31 Sunday Comics: DOONESBURY |Garry TrudeauSetting: Doonesbury kitchen, the breakfast table…Sam: “Reverend Sloan, I’ve been noticing something about the readings in church…”Rev. Sloan: “What’s that, Sam?”Sam: “Well, whenever you read from the Old Testament, God is always crabby and snarky to everyone…”Sam: “But the New Testament isn’t about anger at all – it’s about love.Sam: “God’s only son is this total pacifist – He wouldn’t harm a flea. He’s just this humble dude who’s mellow to everyone – even the Romans!”Sam: “He only really snaps once, right?”Mom: “With who, honey?”Sam: “The moneylenders, Mom!”Mom: “Oh, right. What IS it about moneylenders?”Rev. Sloan: “They do seem to set people off, don’t they?”

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 12:05 pm

Interesting … I see some folks on there I have worked with in the past …Didn’t realize UC Faculty were on CalPers, thought they were with UC Benefits, a differentsetup.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 12:07 pm

SWK, I don’t understand why you defend the Fed unless it is nationalized. Why should private bankers have the power to lend new money into the economy at interest (without creating the amount needed to pay that interest), when the government could spend money into existence without having to charge interest, or, the government lend it into existence with the people reaping the interest off the people’s money???

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 12:07 pm

You are deluding yourself. When you get caught short, as you will, please have the integrity to post about it.

kilgoresJune 3rd, 2009 at 12:09 pm

I don’t remember President Obama ever denying Muslim HERITAGE…he only denied BEING a Muslim, since he’s a Christian, by all credible accounts.SWK

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 12:13 pm

“The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars; the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth.”H. L. Mencken

kilgoresJune 3rd, 2009 at 12:31 pm

I don’t think the Fed has to be nationalized in order to be nationally controlled. While I take the point that perhaps some degree of enhanced Congressional oversight might be useful, and we should probably do something about the revolving door between Fed and Treasury Department service and the private financial sector, I certainly don’t relish the notion of seeing even more politicization of the Fed than is already the case. I tend to believe the Fed best serves its function when it has at least some degree of autonomy from Congressional politics and private sector lobbyists.The authority of the Fed to lend money is informed by Congressional mandate. Our elected representatives in Congress can modify, curtail, or expand that authority at any time. Establishing parameters for the exercise of the Fed’s authority, if necessary or advisable, makes more sense to me than abolishing the Fed in its entirety.SWK

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 12:32 pm

Michele,Here is the way I read your posts:I need the value of my portfolio to increase; therefore, I need the market to go up. X, Y, and Z are factors that will make the market go up. Since X, Y, and Z exist in the market, the market will definitely go up.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 12:47 pm

Yes!These maxims of fundamental truths fly right over the heads of the masses, as evidenced by the criticisms here. “You can fool too many of the people too much of the time.” James Thurber

MichelleJune 3rd, 2009 at 1:00 pm

I will post when I’m wrong. I mentioned last Wednesday’s CDS auction, the market tanked 173 points. Guess why gold, oil, and the markets are selling off today and why the dollar is up?

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 1:01 pm

There is massive criminal activity walking the American landscape. Would you say that it is coming from hardworking Americans or from the financial sector? And keep in mind that the private bankers at the Fed are at the core of the financial sector.Frankly, this quote from Paul Sann regarding Al Capone in “The Lawless Decade, a Pictorial History of a Great American Transtion,” applies to America’s current lawless decade under the banksters at the Fed:”He was mayor, governor and machine boss all rolled into one. He gave the orders; the people’s elected servants carried them out and kept their mouths shut. His authority was so great it could not be measured.”

TfTJune 3rd, 2009 at 1:03 pm

Jim Rogers: S&P Could Go to 50,000 (via Yahoo Tech Ticker)

It’s a bear market rally. I was going to say I don’t think S&P 500 will see new highs. But I have to quickly temper that by saying against the dollar because the S&P 500 could triple from here if they print enough money and the value of the US dollar collapses, then S&P could go to 50,000, Dow Jones can go to 1,00,000.

@MM CA,Pardon my ignorance and you may comment this already. What is your opinion on what the enormous liquidity US FedRes creates would result in? As Michelle commented and if my understanding is right, it pushes the US stock markets (and others) quite nicely.@Michelle,Is there any downside of the liquidity creation and injection from US FedRes? Or the US markets are going to sun (like SGG loves to say) propelled by the FedRes liquidity?Will appreciate if you can share your thoughts and comments on this.

wethepeopleJune 3rd, 2009 at 1:07 pm

Except that the private banker’s power endures centuries, while congressional and senate terms are much shorter relatively. The private bankers have patience, the printing press, fractional reserve lending, the military, and the politicians themselves in their pockets. Also, congress has been known and prone to error. Just because some congress long ago “mandated” the federal reserve system, doesn’t mean it was right, will last or cannot be reviewed and revoked since they are not delivering the outcome(s) they aspired to when they recieved their gratutious “mandate”.

MichelleJune 3rd, 2009 at 1:09 pm

Yes, X, Y and Z do exist in the market, and the market will definitely go up. You read it right. Of course, not in a straight line, but the general trend is up and will continue until such time that liquidity is drained from the market, and a catalyst would be necessary for this to occur. All the sellers have sold, now it’s time to buy.

Guest 2June 3rd, 2009 at 1:29 pm

2nd guest here again, SWK – the one who asked you the question. Thanks very much for that answer. I take your points, too, and find we have large agreement. (Note we did not touch on the Fed’s other duty, the utterly abandoned duty to protect employment.)I have wondered why even the people honestly striving to solve problems seem to miss the very big point that even if the power to create money/debt were restored exclusively to public hands, that move by itself does nothing to stop the money/wealth still accumulating in private hands to stratospheric heights, just as it does now.Seems to me it might slow it down for awhile, might interrupt it (the pace of accumulation), but if ‘money makes money’ doesn’t change, well, don’t we end up with the same outcome: the further concentration of wealth in fewer hands – no matter who does and doesn’t issue the debt?

MichelleJune 3rd, 2009 at 1:41 pm

Of course there’s tons of downside risk with all the excess liquidity via price inflation through speculative activities, which is where this liquidity will end up since we currently don’t have REAL investment in this country. The securities markets are still in tatters, so there are fewer investment opportunities for this excess liquidity to go. So what do we have left? Commodities, precious metals, treasuries, stocks, real estate. Savings rates will continue to stay low and investors will soon see that their savings won’t keep up with inflation, so that money will make it’s way into all these asset classes in time. Downward prices on residential and commercial real estate will continue for some time, but will eventually find a floor and stabilize.Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, SGG (StocksGoinGreen), and of course myself, believe that global stock markets are going to the sun.

SoftwarengineerJune 3rd, 2009 at 1:42 pm

KEEP THAT KID WORKING WHILE GOING TO COLLEGEThe worse thing elites are doing for their kids is buying them tuition, a dorm room and books; and handing them a credit card for their entertainment. Don’t clean out their room after they graduate.Instead of 4 years to graduate, how about 6-8; with 40 hrs a week work experience in the mix. Hades, even flipping burgers and then getting a business degree will mean a slamdunk chance at a regional manager job of fast food restaurants. No work experience can likely mean another uncounted unemployment statistic living off mom and dad.Another thing you never want to do as parents or as a student: “Going into debt with student loans”. If anything, encourage your kid to save like $30-50K before they graduate at their concurrent fulltime job.Now they’re possibly ready to move out on their own [assuming they still have that job they had while they were in college]; rent a small apartment, buy a car and get their teeth fixed.

PeteCAJune 3rd, 2009 at 2:02 pm

Giraf: Actually if you check the behavior of the oil companies … I think you’ll find that they do stockpile oil when prices are low. They can do a lot to hold more in storage, at tanks in plants, until prices soar higher. They can probably hold it in ships too, but it would make sense to keep the loaded ships at berth somewhere in the world. No point in risking an accident at sea.PeteCA

TfTJune 3rd, 2009 at 2:04 pm

@Michelle,Thank you very much for your comments.@Dan,Hmm, Is what Heli (or Zimba) Ben said trustworthy? I’d hold my judgement until his deeds meet his words.

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 2:08 pm

Bonds go up, interest rates rise, dollar eventually crashes… this is all short term knee jerk reactions to prop up the market… this is NOT past normal market repsonse… THIS is 100% smoke and mirrors by the FED. The FED and treasury have never before played in the market like this. Jim rogers above is joking because he thinks the dollar will crash…. but if it crashes it doesnt matter what the number the DOW is at… I posted earliar: The DOW will be at 5000 and the S&P at 475 by Dec 24th, 2009. Merry F..king Christmas everyone!!!! and that is the best case scenario… GDP growth will be -3 to -6% for 2010 too…

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 2:33 pm

Rogers may have a point in that Zimbabwe had the best performing stock market, in local currency terms, for years. It was the only way to hedge against the daily debasement of the Z$ (I think they had a dollar, before a trillion dollars).

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 2:33 pm

Are you saying there are no jobs? :-) Seriously, though, thanks for keeping the significance of that point (no jobs), and related information, on our radar.

GloomyJune 3rd, 2009 at 2:37 pm

All this talk of dollar crashes and hyperinflation is for the moment bogus. The dollar amd bonds weaken and commodities rise when the market goes up. When the market goes down everything reverses. Until I see the market AND the dollar tanking at the same time as bond rates and commodities rise, deflation is firmly in control. I’m hedged either way, but for the moment just watching the show.

GirafJune 3rd, 2009 at 2:38 pm

But what is setting the huge premiums in the forward (futures) market? Who are the buyers? Why are they paying such premiums when everything one reads tells us consumption of oil based products are at a 10 year low?

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 2:42 pm

lest we not forget and something that seems to be getting lost in all the “green shoots” “its a rally” “we hit the lows” is Health Care. if Health Care does not get fixed there is nothing that can stop this country from langusihing in a depression for the next 10 years or more.THE WHITE HOUSEOffice of the Press SecretaryFor Immediate Release June 3, 2009TEXT OF A LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT TOSENATOR EDWARD M. KENNEDY AND SENATOR MAX BAUCUSJune 2, 2009The Honorable Edward M. KennedyThe Honorable Max BaucusUnited States SenateWashington, D.C. 20510Dear Senator Kennedy and Senator Baucus:The meeting that we held today was very productive and I want to commend you for your leadership — and the hard work your Committees are doing on health care reform, one of the most urgent and important challenges confronting us as a Nation.In 2009, health care reform is not a luxury. It’s a necessity we cannot defer. Soaring health care costs make our current course unsustainable. It is unsustainable for our families, whose spiraling premiums and out-of-pocket expenses are pushing them into bankruptcy and forcing them to go without the checkups and prescriptions they need. It is unsustainable for businesses, forcing more and more of them to choose between keeping their doors open or covering their workers. And the ever-increasing cost of Medicare and Medicaid are among the main drivers of enormous budget deficits that are threatening our economic future.In short, the status quo is broken, and pouring money into a broken system only perpetuates its inefficiencies. Doing nothing would only put our entire health care system at risk. Without meaningful reform, one fifth of our economy is projected to be tied up in our health care system in 10 years; millions more Americans are expected to go without insurance; and outside of what they are receiving for health care, workers are projected to see their take-home pay actually fall over time.We simply cannot afford to postpone health care reform any longer. This recognition has led an unprecedented coalition to emerge on behalf of reform — hospitals, physicians, and health insurers, labor and business, Democrats and Republicans. These groups, adversaries in past efforts, are now standing as partners on the same side of this debate.At this historic juncture, we share the goal of quality, affordable health care for all Americans. But I want to stress that reform cannot mean focusing on expanded coverage alone. Indeed, without a serious, sustained effort to reduce the growth rate of health care costs, affordable health care coverage will remain out of reach. So we must attack the root causes of the inflation in health care. That means promoting the best practices, not simply the most expensive. We should ask why places like the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota, the Cleveland Clinic in Ohio, and other institutions can offer the highest quality care at costs well below the national norm. We need to learn from their successes and replicate those best practices across our country. That’s how we can achieve reform that preserves and strengthens what’s best about our health care system, while fixing what is broken.The plans you are discussing embody my core belief that Americans should have better choices for health insurance, building on the principle that if they like the coverage they have now, they can keep it, while seeing their costs lowered as our reforms take hold. But for those who don’t have such options, I agree that we should create a health insurance exchange — amore(OVER)2market where Americans can one-stop shop for a health care plan, compare benefits and prices, and choose the plan that’s best for them, in the same way that Members of Congress and their families can. None of these plans should deny coverage on the basis of a preexisting condition, and all of these plans should include an affordable basic benefit package that includes prevention, and protection against catastrophic costs. I strongly believe that Americans should have the choice of a public health insurance option operating alongside private plans. This will give them a better range of choices, make the health care market more competitive, and keep insurance companies honest.I understand the Committees are moving towards a principle of shared responsibility — making every American responsible for having health insurance coverage, and asking that employers share in the cost. I share the goal of ending lapses and gaps in coverage that make us less healthy and drive up everyone’s costs, and I am open to your ideas on shared responsibility. But I believe if we are going to make people responsible for owning health insurance, we must make health care affordable. If we do end up with a system where people are responsible for their own insurance, we need to provide a hardship waiver to exempt Americans who cannot afford it. In addition, while I believe that employers have a responsibility to support health insurance for their employees, small businesses face a number of special challenges in affording health benefits and should be exempted.Health care reform must not add to our deficits over the next 10 years — it must be at least deficit neutral and put America on a path to reducing its deficit over time. To fulfill this promise, I have set aside $635 billion in a health reserve fund as a down payment on reform. This reserve fund includes a number of proposals to cut spending by $309 billion over10 years –reducing overpayments to Medicare Advantage private insurers; strengthening Medicare and Medicaid payment accuracy by cutting waste, fraud and abuse; improving care for Medicare patients after hospitalizations; and encouraging physicians to form “accountable care organizations” to improve the quality of care for Medicare patients. The reserve fund also includes a proposal to limit the tax rate at which high-income taxpayers can take itemized deductions to 28 percent, which, together with other steps to close loopholes, would raise $326 billion over 10 years.I am committed to working with the Congress to fully offset the cost of health care reform by reducing Medicare and Medicaid spending by another $200 to $300 billion over the next 10 years, and by enacting appropriate proposals to generate additional revenues. These savings will come not only by adopting new technologies and addressing the vastly different costs of care, but from going after the key drivers of skyrocketing health care costs, including unmanaged chronic diseases, duplicated tests, and unnecessary hospital readmissions.To identify and achieve additional savings, I am also open to your ideas about giving special consideration to the recommendations of the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC), a commission created by a Republican Congress. Under this approach, MedPAC’s recommendations on cost reductions would be adopted unless opposed by a joint resolution of the Congress. This is similar to a process that has been used effectively by a commission charged with closing military bases, and could be a valuable tool to help achieve health care reform in a fiscally responsible way.These are some of the issues I look forward to discussing with you in greater detail in the weeks and months ahead. But this year, we must do more than discuss. We must act. The American people and America’s future demand it.I know that you have reached out to Republican colleagues, as I have, and that you have worked hard to reach a bipartisan consensus about many of these issues. I remain hopeful that many Republicans will join us in enacting this historic legislation that will lower health care costs for families, businesses, and governments, and improve the lives of millions of Americans. So, I appreciate your efforts, and look forward to working with you so that the Congress can complete health care reform by October.Sincerely,BARACK OBAMA# # #

MorbidJune 3rd, 2009 at 2:47 pm

Another massive Ponzi scheme that cannot be paid for. The only solution is metered care – none of this live for ever at-all-costs stuff. Perhaps a massive population reduction will help balance all these “budgets” and promises by the vote buying politicians.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 2:59 pm

Are you reading “10-10-10: A Life-Transforming Idea” by Suzy Welch?http://www.amazon.com/10-10-10-Life-Transforming-Idea-Suzy-Welch/dp/1416591826

GloomyJune 3rd, 2009 at 3:02 pm

More blather. Special interests are not about to allow significant health care reform. Only a massive financial collapse would allow reformers to finally get something done-maybe around Dow 1000 and 20% unemployment.

Little SaverJune 3rd, 2009 at 3:09 pm

GDP growth will be -3 to -6% for 2010 too…In real terms. Might be positive in nominal terms. FED and Treasury missions accomplished. Smoke and mirrors, fraud and deceit, as always. Nothing new here. Dollar has never gone up, and never will. There’s a sort of incompatibility between such an event and human behavior <g>.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 3:18 pm

- Tie two birds together. And though they may have four wings, they cannot fly.- You can’t step on the same piece of water twice.- The tadpole loses it strength.- The sword cannot cut itself.- The path and gateway have no meaning, once the objective is in site.from Circle of Iron

HubbsJune 3rd, 2009 at 3:25 pm

Blah Blah Blah BlahI’ll never hear the end of the endless pontification of how we are going to have to cut waste, fraud, and still provide QUALITY CARE…it’s always QUALITY CARE…QUALITY CARE..Give me a break. The only way to get health costs under control is to ration care.Like my wife’s two brothers, sister, and father in Philippines who died at young ages of very treatable illnesses…pneumonia,appendicitis, post-partum infection…the reality is: No money? Then you die.

MorbidJune 3rd, 2009 at 3:41 pm

Hubbs,Nothing like a personal sharing to put things in perspective – thanks for sharing.The only way these compassion card carrying vote buying bleeding ass liberals have power over the people is by promising this crap. If we all face reality then they lose their power for promising REAL CHANGE. Then we all will have to grow up and learn to quit sucking on HOPIUM coated lollypops.

AnonymousJune 3rd, 2009 at 3:50 pm

No comments about the theme of the meeting of great minds:The “science” of economics.Is that an oxymonron?

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 3:57 pm

Michele, how long have you been managing your own money the way you are now? I am guessing not that long.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 4:00 pm

Because Congress is guilty of premeditated non-legislation of the single-payer health insurance the citizens are clamoring for, the government covers all the high-cost people: the poorest and the working poor, the sickest, the youngest, and the oldest – while private insurors have the luxury to cover only those least likely to need services, the most profitable group.How can you say the only way to control costs is to ration care, when this, above, is the situation?Be honest. The facts and numbers prove that Single-payer is entirely affordable without rationing care.

kilgoresJune 3rd, 2009 at 4:06 pm

Guest @ 13:01:24I can’t address your question until you tell me what you mean by “massive criminal activity.” I don’t mean to be pedantic, but there can only be a crime when there is a specific law making some activity criminal. I can’t agree with the premise, unless by criminal you mean “immoral,” in which case I might agree with you, depending on precisely what activities you are referencing.While I appreciate the quote from Mr. Sann, the fact is that the electorate has a responsibility to hold its elected representatives accountable. If they are wrongly kowtowing to someone, be it Al Capone or members of the financial industry, it is the people who elected them that need to take charge and fix that problem.SWK

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 4:09 pm

Isn’t it anyways kinda bizzarre to be fretting about controlling healthcare costs whilst the militrary industrial complex is devouring trillions of dollars, causing destroyed bodies and minds?Where are our priorities?

kilgoresJune 3rd, 2009 at 4:15 pm

Guest 2 @ 13:29:28I think the whole notion of the Fed having a dual goal of keeping interest rates steady and keeping employment reasonably low is a balancing act doomed to failure in a major crisis. Central banks in the western EU can focus on one mission without worrying too much about unemployment because they have meaningful social safety nets in place that the U.S. lacks (there I go, being a “socialist” again).The real problem, as you have rightly noted, is disparity in wealth, which leads to disparity in political power, an anathema to any society which values democratic rule.SWK

QohelethJune 3rd, 2009 at 4:50 pm

No matter your priorities, you’re doomed. In God you trust, but His name is MAMMON.

Guess tooJune 3rd, 2009 at 5:10 pm

God’s Away On Business(Tom Waits/Kathleen Brennan 2000)I’d sell your heart to the junkman babyFor a buck, for a buckIf you’re looking for someone to pull you out of that ditchYou’re out of luck, you’re out of luckShip is sinkingThe ship is sinkingThe ship is sinkingThere’s a leak, there’s a leak in the boiler roomThe poor, the lame, the blindWho are the ones that we kept in charge?Killers, thieves and lawyersGod’s away, God’s awayGod’s away on business, businessGod’s away, God’s awayGod’s away on business, businessDigging up the dead with a shovel and a pickIt’s a job, it’s a jobBloody moon rising with a plague and a floodJoin the mob, join the mobIt’s all over, it’s all overIt’s all overThere’s a leak, there’s a leak in the boiler roomThe poor, the lame, the blindWho are the ones that we kept in charge?Killers, thieves and lawyersGod’s away, God’s awayGod’s away on business, businessGod’s away, God’s away on business, businessGodddamn there’s always such a big temptationTo be good, to be goodThere’s always free cheddar in a mousetrap, babyIt’s a deal, it’s a dealGod’s away, God’s awayGod’s away on business, businessGod’s away, God’s awayGod’s away on business, businessI narrow my eyes like a coin slot babyLet her ring, let her ringGod’s away, God’s awayGod’s away on business, businessGod’s away, God’s awayGod’s away on business, business

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 5:12 pm

Within the next 2 weeks Obama, the Congress, The States, Giethner, Bernanke, et al, will all get to see first hand what happens to a country when they run out of money. The printing press eventually breaks, runs out of paper and ink. When the Gordon Brown led British gov’t suffers a financial Collapse and they are shoved aside WE all will be staring at our fate in short order if we spend every last dime we have. If we do not get deficits under control, cease the incessive and stupid spending ways and start saving, we will suffer the same collapse. Bernanke warned everyone today, read between the lines… Britan is going down and we and others are not far behind.BTW- California has approx. 13 days of cash left and is staring at massive cuts within 2 weeks. It will be a total diasaster in this state. immedaite shortfall is pushing 25 Billion and long term is over 70 Billion… And other states are not far behind. Apply the same pct loss on tax revenues and deficit growth form the FED number below and it doesnt take much to see that most States will be in the same shape as the FED Govt. These Declines in tax receipt numbers show what is goign on with spending and investment currently and yet no one talks about it. the eceonomy is shrinking at an alarming rate. it is beyond me how stocks and the dow and companies are able to show any profits. they have all got to be cooking the books… or maybe the job losses and job cuts are worse than being reported.Again its all in the numbersFrom Roubini on the FEd budget: While tax collections usually boost April revenues, a fiscal deficit of $20.9 bn was reported in April 2009 (first time since 1983) as spending rose 17.5% y/y while revenues fell 34.1% y/y. This took the ytd deficit for FY2009 to $802.3 billion. Corporate tax receipts are down 58.6% ytd while Individual income tax collections are down 24.2% ytd.

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 5:20 pm

Chyrslar is going from producing 2 million cars to a projection of 700K in the “new” company. that is roughly 63% cut in jobs, manufacturing, employees, etc…. 63% is 63%. Demand is gone, base is gone, GM most lilely has similar numbers coming soon… and poor Ford- lol – they are looking at all this as that could be their fate too…We are a disaster as a country and every day people are getting wiped out…. GM had 550 million shares that are no worthless… If they did one thing and took over the banks right now, they could start to fix things… The greed is just too pervasive by the current gene pool in charge… sad to say I would trust the idiot poilticians more than the GREEDY GENE POOL (aka Banks, GS, CEO’s, etc..) in charge presntly

Sitting BullJune 3rd, 2009 at 5:34 pm

Either you tighten your belts, scalp your plutocrats,cleanup your politics and eat a bit of humble pie, or K.A.O.S

Farnorth5June 3rd, 2009 at 6:53 pm

You have an important point there,SWK.There are other countries who have a Federal Reserve where 100% of the banks shares are owned by the Fed Govt,but the Bank itself is still legally provided with Local Autonomy and works well.What I see is an American Central Bank that is controlled by the Banksters themselves ,indirectly rather than a true stand alone neutral operation .The fact that they are asked to “CREATE”full employment is an excuse to provide totally out of control credit provisions.This past 10 years a Debt Pyramid was created and no one gave a damn as to the quality of the debt involved in the pyramid.Eventually the pyramid fell down and we are all reaping the consequenses.An exact repeat of the “Roaring Twenties” So much for history !!!!!I keep coming back to the fact the U.S.Supreme Court has ruled three times since 1913 that the Federal Reserve is in fact a PRIVATE BANK,nothwithstanding the President gets to appoint the Head for a 14 year term and the Federal Govt only holds 20% of the shares…

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 6:58 pm

By the time they revise the statistics, no one cares about the data being revised. It’s a good game.

MichelleJune 3rd, 2009 at 6:59 pm

Ya know, I had a stock broker that talked me into switching funds from a financial fund to a tech fund in October 1999. I don’t think I have to tell you the end of the story, but I lost my you-know-what. Then, my 401(k) took a thrashing in the bear market as I believed in the buy and hold mantra.I have done TENS TIMES BETTER managing my own money since then, thank you.

MichelleJune 3rd, 2009 at 7:05 pm

Did the above on the 8 year plan – worked full-time, went to school, raised kids, paid cash for college. Still work at the same company, but worked my way up to the top, not, not a hamburger joint, either. I would’ve been better off QUITING my job, taking out student loans, and graduating in 4 years, getting sign-on bonuses, stock options, and a company house and car. Who’d a thunk?

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 7:10 pm

Towards New Global Currency, New Financial World Order.http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9923.html…..“In fact, the very concept of a global currency and global central bank is authoritarian in its very nature, as it removes any vestiges of oversight and accountability away from the people of the world, and toward a small, increasingly interconnected group of international elites.As Carroll Quigley explained in his monumental book, Tragedy and Hope, “[T]he powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent private meetings and conferences. The apex of the system was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basle, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world’s central banks which were themselves private corporations.”[71]Indeed, the current “solutions” being proposed to the global financial crisis benefit those that caused the crisis over those that are poised to suffer the most as a result of the crisis: the disappearing middle classes, the world’s dispossessed, poor, indebted people. The proposed solutions to this crisis represent the manifestations and actualization of the ultimate generational goals of the global elite; and thus, represent the least favourable conditions for the vast majority of the world’s people..It is imperative that the world’s people throw their weight against these “solutions” and usher in a new era of world order, one of the People’s World Order; with the solution lying in local governance and local economies, so that the people have greater roles in determining the future and structure of their own political-economy, and thus, their own society. With this alternative of localized political economies, in conjunction with an unprecedented global population and international democratization of communication through the internet, we have the means and possibility before us to forge the most diverse manifestation of cultures and societies that humanity has ever known.The answer lies in the individual’s internalization of human power and destination, and a rejection of the externalization of power and human destiny to a global authority of which all but a select few people have access to. To internalize human power and destiny is to realize the gift of a human mind, which has the ability to engage in thought beyond the material, such as food and shelter, and venture into the realm of the conceptual. Each individual possesses – within themselves – the ability to think critically about themselves and their own life; now is the time to utilize this ability with the aim of internalizing the concepts and questions of human power and destiny: Why are we here? Where are we going? Where should we be going? How do we get there?The supposed answers to these questions are offered to us by a tiny global elite who fear the repercussions of what would take place if the people of the world were to begin to answer these questions themselves. I do not know the answers to these questions, but I do know that the answers lie in the human mind and spirit, that which has overcome and will continue to overcome the greatest of challenges to humanity, and will, without doubt, triumph over the New World Order. “

MichelleJune 3rd, 2009 at 7:18 pm

TfT,Thank you for your kind comments, I’ve been getting eaten alive on this board.

MichelleJune 3rd, 2009 at 7:32 pm

Ah, you really think fundamentals are driving the markets and history and technical analysis is your compass. I hope you can see beyond fundamentals and realize what’s really happening. I got laughed at last summer while attending a 2-week conference with 150 financial people when I stated “We are in a highly DEFLATIONARY environment!” Oil was trading at $147 then, EVERYONE was touting high inflation. You know the rest of the story.Everyone needs to find their best method, I’ve found mine. Just was wanting to share, but I can see I’m being laughed out of the room, but I’m tough.

MichelleJune 3rd, 2009 at 7:50 pm

If I told you that I manage hundreds of millions of dollars of my company’s money, you’d never believe me. You also wouldn’t believe me if I told you that we have over 20% capital.There, I finally said it.

FEDupJune 3rd, 2009 at 7:59 pm

Good info! Don’t let the naysayers (who are not billionaires either) discourage you. As someone who loves challenges and solving difficult problems, I have found that the vast majority of people are wrong much of the time and have a difficult time seeing other peoplesideas. What many do not realize is that ideas are meant to stimulate further thought and analysis. Keep sharing as there are many of us who do value your input!

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:02 pm

The System is predicated on GROWTH, and as such, is doomed for failure, period. In the final analysis talking has very little to do with its outcome.Mark

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:04 pm

For once I agree with this guy…. someone must ahve pissed him off for him to come clean liek this…Gross Says Diversify From Dollar as Deficits Surge (Update4)June 3 (Bloomberg) — Bill Gross, founder of Pacific Investment Management Co., advised holders of U.S. dollars to diversify before central banks and sovereign wealth funds ultimately do the same amid concern about surging deficits.Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s plan to bring the budget back into balance won’t be successful as consumers shrink spending and the U.S. growth rate slows, Gross said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today. The budget deficit will be narrowed to “roughly” 3 percent of GDP from a projected 12.9 percent this year, Geithner said June 1.“I think he’ll fail at pulling a balanced rabbit out of a hat,” Gross said from Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, California. “They are talking about — once the economy in the U.S. renormalizes — the move back toward balance or much less of a deficit. I suspect that will be hard to do.”Higher savings rates and an increase in the cost to service the national debt will drag on the U.S. economy, likely meaning “trillion-dollar deficits are here to stay,” Gross wrote in his June investment outlook posted today on the firm’s Web site.Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, said on May 21 the U.S. will “eventually” lose its AAA credit rating after Standard & Poor’s lowered its outlook on the U.K.’s AAA to “negative” from “stable” amid an escalating ratio of debt- to-gross domestic product. While U.S. marketable debt is at about 45 percent of GDP, annual deficits of 10 percent will push the amount to 100 percent within five years, a level that rating companies and markets view as a “point of no return,” he wrote.‘Years to Come’Government spending will push the budget deficit to $1.845 trillion in the year ending Sept. 30, according to the Congressional Budget Office.Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said today that large U.S. budget deficits threaten financial stability and the government can’t continue indefinitely to borrow at the current rate to finance the shortfall.The U.S. growth rate “requires a government checkbook for years to come,” Gross wrote. Coupled with Medicare and Social Security entitlements, government borrowing could reach 300 percent of GDP, meaning “the Chinese and other surplus nations cannot fund the deficit even if they were fully on board,” he wrote.China, the largest U.S. creditor, with $767.9 billion of debt, has shifted purchases of Treasuries into shorter-maturity securities amid concern about unprecedented debt sales.Yield CurveGeithner, speaking yesterday in an interview in Beijing with Chinese state media outlets, said he has “found a lot of confidence” in the U.S. economy during his trip to China.Investors should position themselves in the front end of the yield curve as long-term Treasury yields likely move higher, steepening the so-called yield curve, Gross wrote.Gross reduced his holdings of government-related bonds in the $150 billion Total Return Fund in April for the first time since January, according to company data. In addition to Treasuries, the government debt category can include inflation- linked Treasuries, so-called agency debt, interest-rate derivatives and bank debt backed by the FDIC.Yields on benchmark 10-year notes climbed as high as 3.75 percent on May 28, the most since November, rising from a record low of 2.04 percent on Dec. 18. the 10-year yield dropped three basis points today to 3.59 percent today.Currency DiversificationThe dollar weakened beyond $1.43 against the euro yesterday for the first time in 2009 on bets record U.S. borrowing will undermine the greenback, prompting nations to consider alternatives to the world’s main reserve currency.Russian President Dmitry Medvedev may discuss his proposal to create a new world currency when he meets counterparts from Brazil, India and China this month, Natalya Timakova, a spokeswoman for the president, told reporters yesterday. Russia’s proposals for the Group of 20 meeting in London in April included studying a supranational currency.The U.S. currency climbed 0.9 percent to $1.4177 per euro at 11:15 a.m. in New York, from $1.4303 yesterday, in the biggest intraday advance since May 27. The dollar traded at 95.75 yen, compared with 95.76.The government has pledged $12.8 trillion to open credit markets and snap the longest U.S. economic slump since the 1930s. The Fed will buy as much as $1.75 trillion in Treasuries and housing-related debt to drive down consumer borrowing costs. That could have “inflationary implications,” Gross said.No Exit“Our expectation is the government won’t be able to exit” from those positions, Gross said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio today. The programs “will be semi-permanent positions on their balance sheets.”For all the hand-wringing over the dollar’s slide, expanding deficits and declining credit ratings, the bond market shows international demand for American financial assets is as high as ever. The Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasuries on behalf of central banks and institutions from China to Norway rose by $68.8 billion, or 3.3 percent, in May, the third most on record, data compiled by Bloomberg show.The Total Return Fund rose 4.8 percent in 2008, beating 93 percent of its peers, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The fund has returned 1.5 percent this year, according to Pimco data.

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:08 pm

I don’t think that they are deluding themselves one bit. They are well aware of the economic situation. But at least they have money to purchase materials/energy.Mark

MM CAJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:09 pm

Sad, sad, sad…End of a US eraGeneral Motors’ demise has been a long time coming. On Monday, it expired as a private, solvent company with a bankruptcy filing that embodies not just a sequence of failures by what was once the world’s largest company; not just the challenges of a car industry in crisis; but a mismanaged economic and social transformation.The basic facts of GM’s predicament are well known: the recession killed a company bled to anaemia by its incapacity to make cars people would buy. While the recession has run the whole car industry over a cliff – total capacity is 86 million vehicles a year, but annualised global sales have fallen to 56 million from 70 million in 2007 – some producers are suffering more than others. For this they have themselves to blame. GM’s primacy in the US guaranteed its global dominance after the second world war. Market power bred complacency, and GM’s US market share declined steadily from more than half to about 20 per cent.Japanese “transplants”, more efficient than the Big Three and unburdened by commitments to unions, built a lean car industry across the south. We should not lament this: median household income in Michigan is some $10,000 per year higher than in Alabama. Flint’s loss is Huntsville’s gain.Detroit’s political clout obscured this trade-off. It also kept GM alive for too long. The government should have let it file for bankruptcy earlier and limited its help to financing operations during bankruptcy to prevent a collapse of the supply chain. The government’s excessive coddling of GM has forced it to take a bloated equity stake to protect its money. The sooner it disinvests, the better; meanwhile it must shelter the business from political calculation.For some, GM’s fall is the final death knell for America’s labour aristocracy. In its heyday, unionised manufacturing supported a US blue-collar middle class with good wages and welfare benefits. But technological change has made well-paid blue-collar jobs rarer as rich economies, helped by globalisation, have shifted from industry to services.This historic change was inevitable. But its consequences could have been less painful. The government relied on large companies like GM to provide welfare benefits, and never put in place policies that could ease the post-industrial economic restructuring. Instead, the US applied the palliative of easy credit – sustaining an illusion of economic betterment for all. The illusion has now shattered – for America as well as for GM.

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:09 pm

Losers always blame everyone else!The US suckered them into this game and got stuck!Where’s the outrage over the US waging bloody wars of aggression? Who are the real F…ers?Mark

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:18 pm

GO AWAY. Yes, the same principle of racism are at the heart of this crap! This is an economics blog, not a Limbaugh fan club blog!Mark

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:23 pm

The basic premise of the demise of nation states will hold, no matter what anyone does about it.I don’t need to read the book. Simple observation is all that’s necessary.But as far as bashing California, well, there but the grace of god… (Michigan might crash harder) Lots of food comes from here; and food, you know, is one of the three necessities of life; you all will get this when you’re paying a much higher percentage of your expenses for food.Mark

Guest tooJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:33 pm

Wednesday, June 3, 2009A TALE OF TWO COUNTRIES6/3/09Obsequious Ben Bernanke, appearing today before the House Budget Committee, has let loose with two whoppers of brobdingnagian proportions. First, Mr. Bernanke stated that the Fed “will not monetize” the federal budget deficit. In what world can that can be a true statement? The Fed is buying government securities at a clip not seen in our country’s history. The Fed is buying long term treasuries, apparently in an attempt, so far utterly failing, to flatten the yield curve, for the first time in years and with a degree of enthusiasm that makes the woman on the Progessive.com insurance commercials look like the picture of insouciance. By very definition, the Fed is monetizing the deficit, and doing it to a heretofore unwitnessed degree.Perhaps we can attribute even an iota of truth to Mr. Bernanke’s denial of monetizing the government’s debt by concentrating on tense, as in the Fed will not monetize the deficit, not that it has not monetized the deficit. For this attribution to be valid, however, one would have to conclude that Mr. Bernanke has been taking English lessons from Bill Clinton or is signaling a sudden policy change. The former is highly unlikely; Bernanke isn’t cool enough to hang out with Mr. Clinton, though one suspects he would like to be, hence forth the moniker I have attached to Obsequious Ben. The latter, while we can always hope, is even more unlikely.The second of Mr. Bernanke’s failed sockdolagers is that the Fed was “involved very unwillingly” in the bailouts that have characterized the Bush/Obama administration’s approach to “capitalism” and “free markets.” Unwillingly? The Fed’s balance sheet has expanded by a factor of greater than three over the last year due to the too numerous to tally bailouts in which it has involved itself and the attendant and aforementioned monetizing of the deficit. “Unwillingly?” How does Mr. Bernanke behave when engaging in an activity willingly?…..

MichelleJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:47 pm

Ben will continue to create dollars in order to repatriate those dollars. The Ponzi scheme will continue until we lose our reserve currency status.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:47 pm

Mark perhaps you should look in the mirror (or some of your numerous posts on matters “economic” or should I say political.Economics and politics are two sides of the same coin; just because some disagree with your politics doesn’t require you to attack, though that is the MO for many who reside in the extremes.

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 9:55 pm

Well, probably only conceptually. He’s still got a job. And, quite likely, a big bank account.Mark

Guest tooJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:02 pm

m,your laughable answer? i have been searching forit to no avail. i was thinking it was going tobe a highlight of my day but you didn’t post it?or am i too dim to have seen it? please share thatone. the, what is it, contango tango.??

MichelleJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:06 pm

Group hug! Thanks guys, I enjoy your posts, too! At least I know your identities, rather than the 100 guests that post daily.

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:11 pm

Getting people more equity won’t really do anything either. What made things work, and always has, is velocity of money. Having the “value” of your home increased might look good, but if no one can afford it (lost jobs, continuing debts etc.), then all it’s good for is bragging: until you discover that it helps increase the amount of property taxes that you pay (for ever-decreasing services). With interest rates creeping up this will only make it that much tougher for anyone to refinance or get a second mortgage (to “take advantage” of the increased equity).Somehow we’re in a corner and straight ahead is a cliff!Mark

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:13 pm

We can counter this by all becoming farmers! It was Henry Kissinger who once quipped “control the food and you control the people” (and this SOB is still alive and is still actively influencing worl affairs!)Mark

MichelleJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:22 pm

I guess I didn’t think anyone cared to read it as I’ve been ridiculed enough already today.Okay, here’s my answer:Solar flare activity, creating enough energy to ignite the world aglow. The sun burns itself out snuffing out all living things. Hearing about our formidable extinction, aliens inhabit our inhospitable planet in search of the holy grail: OIL! The banksters, having enough TARP money to fund space voyages prior to the ELL event, collaborate with these aliens so they too, can rip them off!

ChignosJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:26 pm

Well said. The trouble with Mark’s posts is that he cannot possibly know that of which he opines. For example, he continually rags that resources are limited (and implies that using them in a capitalist way is immoral), but the truth is that no one could really know this. One might as easily believe that there is a carbon (or gold, or uranium) cycle, just like there is an hydrological cycle. After all, there’s physics–the conservation of energy an all that (therefore also most likely conservation of space, conservation of time, conservation of matter, etc.). My guess is Mark never listens to an opposing point of view (prove it Mark, what did Limbaugh say today about Sotomajor?)–typical of narrow-minded ideologues. Personally I just had my world view rocked again today after googling “nanothermites” after viewingwww.911mysteries.comI’m not advocating any particular political persuasion, though I am most definitely a follower of Jesus Christ (Mark it’s a matter of faith and spiritual vision, there’s no way I would attempt to convert or prove it to you), but I would be most interested to know what the brains on this blog have to say after viewing these sites.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:33 pm

So I should be concerned that our President is leveraging his Muslim heritage to attempt to make peace with the people threatening to bomb us instead of marching out to obliterate them.He is untrustworthy because he misrepresents his identity? Which identity is that? His MUSLIM identity (Barak HUSSEIN Obama), or his Christian identity (as a member of Rev. Wright’s ‘racist’ congregation).So is he bad because he’s got Muslim roots, or is he bad because he’s a liberal Christian, or is he bad because he can use whichever facet works best with his audience…Or is he bad because you don’t like him and will take any excuse to justify your dislike.

Average JaneJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:33 pm

I’ve been reflecting lately, given our stressful times, of how well and truly We The American People have been manipulated into more and more extreme intolerance toward each other. I realized that almost everyone I know could be categorized as “one of “Those People.” Those [insert race here] people. Those gay people. Those fat people. Those welfare people. Those rich people. Those [insert religion here] people.Divide and Conquer on a colossal scale, and I am well and truly sick of it all.And yet there is one overarching issue, these days anyhow, that binds us all together: There’s Just Not Enough Money.Thirty years ago, I daresay there were about the same percentage of “those unhealthy people” in our population as there are now, and yet we now worry about our coworkers’ eating and exercising habits because if they don’t take care of themselves, They Cost Too Much Money.Thirty years ago, our employers provided our retirement plans as a benefit in exchange for our hard work. Now, pensions Cost Too Much Money. In fact, employees Cost Too Much Money. Now wages, if one is lucky enough to have a job, are forcibly redirected into the Stock Market Casino. Thirty years ago the middle class didn’t care about the DJIA because it was only for the high rollers. Now we are all watching the DJIA because we are all High Rollers.Thirty years ago, I learned about duty to my fellow Americans in a civics class. Now those classes no longer exist.What happened to live and let live? What happened to our common good? Where did our civil liberties go? Why are we more interested in who’s winning American Idol than we are in what’s happening at our state legislatures?Why have we let the moneychangers define our values?And when are we going to realize that our neighbors are not Those People—they’re just like us?I just had to let it out, folks. It’ll be better in the morning. Right?

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:39 pm

If the Third World doesn’t want to crash harder it will look to rebuke any offer to “boost” agriculture. Think Green Revolution. There are ways that others can be helped, but unfortunately the “help” will most likely come from big AG companies.NOTE: Saying that it’s a record harvest is meaningless in the face of record populations. Worldwide grain harvests have been slipping.Mark

artichokeJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:45 pm

I hope it’s not too little too late … but in my opinion GM is now definitely making cars I would buy. Three years ago I bought a Chrysler, my alternative was a GM. I would probably buy a GM today (new models) if I were buying — I hope to keep the Chrysler a long time, it seems very durable and reliable.

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:46 pm

If you know what’s good for you you’ll stop watching FOX! Kill your TV before it drives you insane! I did! (and, well, many would say that I’m insane, but at least I’ve got a dead TV to show for it! :-) )Mark

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:56 pm

So, you’ve got a positive outlook? LOL Well, compared to mine that is :-) Think “economies of scale.” The impacts are far greater than most believe. Factories won’t be able to operate on reduced staff and capacity without incurring greater operating costs. Prices will have to be increased to reflect actual costs; and then there’s the impact of rising taxes. Isn’t Microsoft already threatening to shift more abroad if taxes are increased?No, it’s going to be much worse.Mark

ChignosJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:58 pm

Imagine this. Valerie Plame was “outed” as a CIA agent by (not Scooter Libby but) what’s ‘sname Armitage and……..that’s against the law. Now, all of a sudden because the left wants it, it’s perfectly ok to “out” the CIA operatives (by showing their pictures) because they’re waterboarding or otherwise “torturing” or “degrading” some detainee. Outing a CIA agent is still against the law, but that doesn’t matter anymore. Never mind that the whole sordid innuendo is unresolved therefore no American citizen can really know what went on. There won’t be any truth telling from any angle. That won’t stop the rhetoric, the partisanship, the emotional reaction to what the pictures might have showed, Never mind that that the whole scene might have been staged. We don’t get to see the pictures anyway, much less know their context.The point is: when are you gonna get smart about what you believe? You’re operating on insufficient information, therefore you’re not entitled to a firmly held opinion. The old saying is, “Don’t believe anything you hear and only half of what you see.” If Americans reserved that degree of skepticism for their political leaders, those politicians would have to remain on their toes, rather than their current practice of alcoholic dinner parties every night.

Guest too lucyJune 3rd, 2009 at 10:59 pm

m,crack me up.you are clearly overqualified to be answeringany further questions on this blog. thanks for theresponse.repatriating dollars causes inflation, no? notsomething the fed ultimately wants. right now,some would be welcome, consistent with the reflationagenda.at a certain time the repatriation should be divertedsomewhere, say, africa? to avoid inflation and seedthe next bubble. no? if this fails hyperinlationensues?the aliens are hiding out there too (africa). they have a namefor them, i forgot what it is. the shape shifters.chitahuri? something like that…..anyway, ….irene, goodnight……..ps.speaking of solar flares, electrical disturbance.air france. ????

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:07 pm

It’s a three letter word starting with “W.”But, one could hardly do worse than directing money at something that’s more valuable than $$s.Mark

AnonymousJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:07 pm

The power held by those with money, by creditors over debtors, is too great. But the actual physical plant and natural resources on the world are fine.We need to reduce the power of money. Zero it out, inflate it away, whatever, and we can remove the power of the overlords.

ChignosJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:13 pm

So what? it wasn’t any different when I graduated from college. There were (according to the media) no jobs and the economy was in the dumper. 10 years later I still wasn’t making >$100K…SO WHAT? Is every American supposed to be rich beyond the world’s wildest expectations? Get some perspective, dozer. Life isn’t a picnic/free lunch. You have to get out there and create an income. Dozer/

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:14 pm

Yeah, and they end up consuming way more than those that aren’t institutionally educated.It’s not so much population as it is consumption that’s the problem. Yes, too many people for too few resources IS a recipe for disaster.Mark

Guest too blindlyJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:17 pm

aj,i was thinking that “money” is never value. it isthe sovereigns attempt to capture and make liquidthe transfer of value by law, regardless of moralityjustice or ethics however people are indoctrinatedto believe that money is value and merely innocentcurrency.?

ChignosJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:17 pm

You people haven’t stopped to think about the fact that the last thing the stratospherically wealthy want to spend their time on is to hassle with ruling those who have a lot less. Think, nimwits!

Gues t tooJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:41 pm

g,i think your response points directly tothe lack of organization expressed by asegment of the population that has seeninjustice and has been rendered impotentto address those injustices by coherentand socially accepted standards. is thisan accurate interpretation? no need toanswer, i’m sure it is correct, but feel freeto elaborate.

Gues t tooJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:41 pm

g,i think your response points directly tothe lack of organization expressed by asegment of the population that has seeninjustice and has been rendered impotentto address those injustices by coherentand socially accepted standards. is thisan accurate interpretation? no need toanswer, i’m sure it is correct, but feel freeto elaborate.

ChignosJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:42 pm

Try to understand economics. How ’bout we just out law health insurance altogether? That would make health care affordable immediately by definition.

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:43 pm

I agree with you Gloomy, there is no clear up or down. The economy is peregrinating in an erratic fashion. Gold, for example is up $100/oz in a month, but it could easily fall back in the next month.

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:44 pm

But, but, but… Bush told us that the economy was fine, that it was sound!Where’s I.F. Stone?Mark

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:52 pm

Pretty damning evidence FOR disaster!But this tended to raise my eyebrows:The key question is whether housing prices will go crashing through the trend line and fall well below fair value. Unfortunately, this is very likely.I’ve got to wonder why they necessarily think that an additional 5% to 10% drop will hit the “fair value” mark. What IS “fair value?” Isn’t it what the market will bear? If they’ve got some insight into the magic numbers then shouldn’t the big financial firms be able to positively state where they really stand?Seems that some otherwise trenchant comments can totally get derailed by some pretty odd/sloppy statements. (like, for instance, Dr. Roubini talking about getting back to “sustainable ‘growth’”)Mark

GuestJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:53 pm

Wauseon plant to open Monday for 110-mpg car engines | Doug Pelmear says his engine more than quadruples the efficiency of the average car engine.By LARRY P. VELLEQUETTETOLEDO BLADE BUSINESS WRITER(May 30, 2009) WAUSEON – The man who drove his 20-year-old Mustang from Napoleon, Ohio, to Las Vegas and back last year on 39 gallons of fuel will open his first manufacturing facility Monday to allow others to get 110 miles per gallon.Doug Pelmear, owner of Horse Power Sales.net Inc. and Hp2G LLC, will hold an open house Monday morning in the idle 100,000-square-foot factory he has leased in Wauseon to begin manufacturing his revolutionary engine.The factory, on the Fulton Industries Inc. campus in Wauseon, will be tooled to initially turn out 20 of Mr. Pelmear’s custom engines per day with one shift of 25 workers.A Decatur, Ind., specialty car company, Revenge Designs Inc., has contracted with Mr. Pelmear to purchase 2,000 engines for use in a new vehicle it plans to unveil at the end of this year at the Los Angeles International Auto Show. The vehicle is to be called the Revenge Verde Super Car, which will use Mr. Pelmear’s 400-horsepower engine and its 500 foot-pounds of torque to travel up to 200 mph and get 110 mpg – though admittedly not at the same time.”The engine is going to be a really great partnership with the car,” explained Emily Levault, a spokesman for Revenge Design. “The idea behind this was to give people what they want while putting people back in their jobs.”Ms. Levault said the Verde will be introduced as both a left and right-hand drive, so that it can be marketed around the world. She said details of its pricing have not been released.Mr. Pelmear has said that he employs more precise tolerances and manufacturing techniques to decrease heat and energy loss and increase the efficiency of the internal combustion engine. He said he has more than quadrupled the industry average engine efficiency of about 8 percent.Mr. Pelmear’s company employs eight people, and he said he’ll “take resumes” on Monday, but won’t accept applications, for what would be his first shift of production workers. Depending on how the plant start-up goes, Mr. Pelmear said, “we’ll probably add another 25 over the next three months after that.” Mr. Pelmear did not say what workers will be paid.http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090530/BUSINESS03/905300338

ChignosJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:54 pm

As long as our trading partners monitize their debt at the same rate as we do (or perhaps a little variation on that theme) there won’t be any inflation. What is the alternative to the USD? Have you ever even seen rand? How many ounces of gold have you ever seen? Be serious.

MarkJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:56 pm

But… why should a failed system continue? At what point does one toss in the towel?We know what the equation is, and the current system comes up with “42!”Mark

ChignosJune 3rd, 2009 at 11:59 pm

You’re just lost aren’t you, Average Jane? I feel so sorry for you, tsk tsk….and your country.

MarkJune 4th, 2009 at 12:30 am

But where do you see this stopping? I’d asked this a LONG time ago (posed this general question to ALL): what happens when EVERYONE is inflating? Doesn’t it just show that it’s all too un-real, too virtual?Mark

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 12:45 am

No, life isn’t a picnic and no not everyone will be rich. Obviously you have to work to create an income. But the point of the article is that current graduates are starting that much further behind and will have to work that much harder just to catch up, never mind excel. This means that they won’t have as much disposable income to spend and they won’t be paying as much in taxes. Which then leads to a problem both with economic growth and funding the current entitlement programs. We’re already looking at two workers to every one retiree, down from the six to one ratio when Social Security was implemented, and now those two workers will have to contribute a higher percentage (thanks to diminished income) to support that one retiree. Something has to give somewhere and the solution doesn’t look to be as simple as telling recent graduates to “work harder.”

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 1:04 am

So, this has played out before, in exactly the same way? Really? Amazing how so many people know precisely how everything will work out in the future, having never experienced such a unique set of circumstances before. It must be so comforting to be so secure as to believe an unproven theory to be unequivocal fact.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 1:14 am

[Mark] continually rags that resources are limited (and implies that using them in a capitalist way is immoral), but the truth is that no one could really know this. True, true. There might just be a black hole at the center of the earth from which magically new resources are created. It is POSSIBLE that the earth is not a closed system. But until we have a tally of EVERYTHING, there is always going to be a bit of statistical uncertainty. But then, if you have trouble with projections, probabilities, or uncertainty, you shouldn’t be looking at economics.One might as easily believe that there is a carbon (or gold, or uranium) cycle, just like there is an hydrological cycle.And spontaneous generation might actually transpire on a macro scale… After all, there’s physics–the conservation of energy an all that (therefore also most likely conservation of space, conservation of time, conservation of matter, etc.).You might try brushing up on your physics before offering inane comments. Let me know when the TOE is finished and validated. My guess is Mark never listens to an opposing point of view At least you weren’t hypocritical enough to attempt to state this as fact. :-)

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 2:49 am

air france????Unsilent Generation – It is conceivable that the materials used to construct parts of the Airbus 330 might have been a factor in the loss of Air France 447. While we may never know for sure whether structural issues contributed to the plane’s plunge into the Atlantic, the crash raises urgent questions that reach beyond even the untimely deaths of 228 people: Composite aircraft parts figure more and more in the future of commercial aviation, with the two biggest manufacturers preparing to roll out high-composite-content jets next year.These carbon-fiber composites – basically, a form of plastic – are lighter than the aluminum they replace, which stands to cut down significantly on fuel costs. But any weaknesses in parts built of composite may be impossible to detect during routine ground inspections – at least without costly testing methods that the manufacturers insist are unnecessary.If critics of the new high-composite-content aircraft are right about their risks, then we may once again be facing a situation where the corporate profits of the aerospace and airline industries are placed before public safety, while the government declines to intervene.http://unsilentgeneration.com/2009/06/03/air-france-447-structural-flaws/

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 3:26 am

I like your plan the more I re-read it, SB. Let’s see…More of us get back to our own plain good senses about the virtues of moderation of consumption and moderation in general, we chop the wealth extreme at the top of the crushing heap and put it at the bottom to lessen the pressure and struggle-pain and costs on everybody, we become 21st Century better-informed, better-connected, clearer-thinking, response-able citizens active in ruling themselves like democracy says…and we don’t even starve on your plan, seeings how we get to eat pie an’ all.I’m up for all of that.

Enquiring minds want to knowJune 4th, 2009 at 3:52 am

Chignos, do you get paid to be the unnofficial mascot of the life-sucking, love-sucking, anti-nurturing, murderous oppressive patriarchy we are enduring, or is your obnoxious paternalistic condescension just a volunteer gig?

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 4:11 am

You’re not even going to attempt to rationalize away the important points brought before you? You can’t see that it’s ludicrous to give private industry all the plums and government the hamstringing, and then use that to discredit the idea of government being able to cover everyone without “rationing” (nice euphemism for with-holding!) care?You’re not going to say you think it would be a great idea to spend on healthcare instead of global military adventures?You’re just going to say I’m in denial and that’s that?Really?

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 4:18 am

Exactly.I’m amazed there was one person left who hadn’t figured that out or been told yet.

Pecos BankerJune 4th, 2009 at 4:29 am

I wonder if California should be entitled to federal aid considering that it is their proposition 13 which is partly responsible for their shortfalls. Get rid of that first and then ask for a handout from the feds. Can’t have your cake and eat it too.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 4:51 am

http://prorev.com/indexa.htmBAUCUS DISSES SINGLE PAYER SUPPORTERS AGAIN[Are they kidding?! Is this a JOKE? Baucus dares come out now with 'Darn but it's simply not possible because it's too late'...to make the smart economic AND morally right move?]After Downing Street – Senator Max Baucus met with advocates for single-payer healthcare, including Senator Bernie Sanders, and told them that he might drop criminal charges against 13 people arrested for speaking up in his hearings, but that he would not include any supporters of single-payer health coverage in any future hearings.According to one report, Baucus suggested that he’d been mistaken to exclude single-payer but asserted that the process of creating healthcare reform legislation was too far along now to correct that omission.Senator Sanders said after the meeting that if healthcare reform did not create a single-payer system it shouldn’t be done at all, and that within three or four years we would realize we’d solved nothing. He said that it would be better to increase funding for community health centers and take steps to make it easier for medical students to go into primary care, than to enact major reforms that didn’t go to the root of the problem.Sanders has a bill that makes some of the changes he advocates, as well as a bill to facilitate the creation by states of single-payer healthcare systems. Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin has introduced resolutions on the same topic in the House. . .Rose Ann DeMoro, executive director of the California Nurses Association – National Nurses Organizing Committee and national vice president of the AFL-CIO, said the fight for single-payer is a civil rights movement, and that people “have to turn up the heat.” When someone questions the political viability of single payer, she said, we should question “allowing people to die and suffer for lack of political will.”. . .Dr. Oliver Fein, president of :P hysicians for a National Healthcare Plan and associate dean at Weill Medical College of Cornell University, said that he and his colleagues had asked Baucus for a full hearing on the merits of single payer and asked for the Congressional Budget Office to create a comparison of single payer with whatever plan Congress produces that is not single payer. Senator Sanders said that he would continue to push Baucus to hold a hearing.**Sweet Jesus! With all the resources and energy already marshalled in calling for them, WHY can’t we get this full hearing on the merits of single payer, and WHY can’t we have the comparison of single payer with whatever Congress produces that isn’t single payer?

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 5:03 am

AJ, what you are saying is the real cause behind why there is no money for social security while there are trillions for Pentagon.

GuestwinkJune 4th, 2009 at 6:13 am

Just skimming through this block quickly, but wanted to agree out loud with Chignos that Rush Limbaugh certainly does typify narrow-minded idealogues. What on earth is Mark doing listening to an exceptionally illogical wanker like Limbaugh?

AnonymousJune 4th, 2009 at 7:57 am

The Battle for Belief: A Sociologist’s Research in 9/11 Argumentation

We are at war, and one of the most critical and dangerous frontline is not in Afghanistan, Iraq or Iran. Rather, it is the battleground within the human psyche. Individual and collective minds are waging psychological warfare in what promises to be one of the most intense struggles in American history, if not all of human history. How do we communicate the truth about the events of 9/11 to those who have been deceived by the operation and its cover-up in the media? Are logic, reason, and science enough?In the “battle for belief”, Person A offers truth demonstrating reality while Person B, knowingly or unknowingly, transmits lies and perpetuates myth. At the end of the day, the one with the most credibility wins. This much is supposed by Dr. Mark Jones, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Sociology at Colorado College, who is embarking on a research project to study how both sides of a controversial issue communicate their ideas…

(full story at: http://www.ae911truth.org/info/61)

MichelleJune 4th, 2009 at 8:07 am

Finally, someone that gets it! This is why one must be cautious in relying too heavily on the last year’s SuperBowl Champion’s playbook.”So, this has played out before, in exactly the same way? Really? Amazing how so many people know precisely how everything will work out in the future, having never experienced such a unique set of circumstances before. It must be so comforting to be so secure as to believe an unproven theory to be unequivocal fact.”Uncharted territory, difficult to know precisely how things shake out, however, I continue with my guestimate that Heli Ben will continue to inflate, along with the other central banks, until the burden of debt is deflated to realistic levels.

MM CAJune 4th, 2009 at 8:28 am

Have we not learned anything? Prop it up with smoke and mirrors is the new game..FHA Loans: Return to 0% DownA new Federal Housing Administration program will let first-time home buyers use their $8,000 tax credit for down payments or closing costsThe days of home buying with little or no money down may be back—this time thanks to Uncle Sam.Blamed for contributing to the housing bubble, zero-down-payment loans largely vanished when the market crashed and Congress blocked seller financing for government-backed loans. Now the federal government will be forking over cash at closing.Buyers who haven’t owned a home for three years or longer are eligible for an $8,000 tax credit, thanks to a provision in this winter’s stimulus package. Now, under a little-noticed program announced May 29, the Federal Housing Administration will steer the funds to cover closing costs directly—in some cases even offsetting the 3.5% minimum down payment FHA loans require. That’s enough to cover most or all of the down payment and fees for homes up to the U.S. median price, now about $169,000

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 8:33 am

The solution to the bond vigilantes in to restore progressive taxation at all levels so that the megarichcan pull their weight. We all know the story of Warren Buffett and his secretary. She pays more taxes than he does proportionately. The marginal rates on the rich must go up. The capital gains rate and the dividendgains rate must go up. There must be a Tobin tax typestructure. IS THIS GOING TO HAPPEN? NO. The rich own the government. SO WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN? There will be a MORE REGRESSIVE VALUE ADDED TAX INSTITUTEDTO OPPRESS THE MIDDLE CLASS OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT.You can kiss health reform goodbye!Since we can’t raise taxes on the rich and we just GOTROYALLY LOOTED BY THE BANKS, WE HAVE NO MORE MONEY.The solution will be to dismantle all our economic stabilizers of social programs and run an AUSTERITYBUDGET for a country that is heavily unemployed and indebted. I HAVE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE!!!This is the model criticized by Joseph Stiglitz as the IMF creditor collection model for underdeveloped countries. The bond vigilantes can be easily appeasedby raising taxes on the wealthy to get our country on course. Marginal rates were very high on the wealthy through times of trouble in our country. So what is the critique of this policy. The rich will take their money elsewhere in the world to avoid taxation. The wealthy are participating in this PRESENT COMMODITIESTEMPORARY BUBBLE. There must be coordinated taxation treaties to tax speculative market transactions to raise capital to defray all the BANK BAILOUTS. WHY IS NOBODY TALKING ABOUT THE SHARE SACRIFICE OF THE GLOBAL WEALTHY TO RESTORE THE BUDGETS OF THE COUNTRIESTHAT HAVE BAILED OUT THE BANKERS?We will be sold a bill of goods to save the integrity of the budget balance process by sacrifice by the lower classes.

MM CAJune 4th, 2009 at 8:34 am

Read the article- it describes all about CDO’s, CDS and how Wall street and the banks had no consceince on screwing main stret maerica and small town government…Pretty sick and disgusting stuff… they should all be prosecuted… It feels horrible to know that they live in this country and would screw children out a good education amongst other things….The Looting of America: How Wall Street Fleeced Millions from Wisconsin SchoolsWall Street investment houses went after the $100 billion saved in school-district trust funds like Whitefish Bay’s, and made a killing.http://www.alternet.org/workplace/140208/?page=entire

thimmaJune 4th, 2009 at 8:54 am

Nope, never heard of 10-10-10 bu Suzy Welch.@MM CA – yes it will be misery. But I think USA will get through it and emerge on the other side with China almost equaling it in GDP.

TfTJune 4th, 2009 at 8:59 am

@ Michelle (at 2009-06-03 19:18:17)You are very welcome. And I concur FEDup’s comment on 2009-06-03 19:59:53 and appreciate your kindness (and a number of others) to share your thoughts herein. (Also thank to the professor for the place.)In fact, I try to grasp your thoughts as much as possible.As a side note, it is challenging to be a parent. Having four kids as you is admirable. Best wishes to you.

TfTJune 4th, 2009 at 9:12 am

Main stream media really becomes a good part of the US gigantic propaganda machine:Exhibit 1Title: Productivity increases more than expected in 1QSub-title: Productivity increases more than expected in 1Q, as layoffs rise faster than output fallsExhibit 2Title: Jobless benefit rolls fall, initial claims dip

The total jobless benefit rolls fell by 15,000 to 6.7 million, the first drop since early January. Continuing claims had set record highs every week since the week ending Jan. 24. The continuing claims data lag initial claims by one week.

When the extended unemployment benefits run out, would the continuous claims fall starting at some point??Another interesting news today: Wal-Mart says it will create 22,000 jobs in 2009

Those positions include plenty of cashiers and stock clerks, but the world’s largest retailer will also be adding store managers, pharmacists and personnel workers.

I wonder what the percentage of cashiers and stock clerks is for the 22,000 positions. But it is better than nothing, isn’t it? In the past decades, Walmartization is going on- make workers earn less so they have to make purchases at WalMart rather than make workers earn enough so they may purchase what they make.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 9:24 am

@Mark:”The System is predicated on GROWTH, and as such, is doomed for failure, period. In the final analysis talking has very little to do with its outcome.”Of course, you are correct. And that is one issue that is not spoken much about.However, the discussion was about foreseeing or not foreseeing this recession. I mentioned peoples beliefs about the consequences of publicly admitting what they forecast, as this is a factor on what some have been willing to say.And I happen to believe that there is system of “reward” and “punishment” that also dictates what people say or do not say. That is why some economists only say what they are paid to say. I thought you were referring to some system similar to that, one that governs essentially what is being told us (through the mass media). From what you are saying I gather that you were actually referring to the entire growth-oriented economical system as a whole.

FEDupJune 4th, 2009 at 9:26 am

Oh no! You have just discovered the Walmart “Master Plan of Retail Domination”. Hide your identity or Walmart may ban you from all their stores; on second thought, that may not work as eventually they may be the ONLY retailer left!

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 9:27 am

if china move away from export model, their trade surplus, well it is gonna go down whether they like or not as USA people spend less. china will have to shift focus to domestic/asia region trade. all mean, no more china pushing the long date rate down -> long date rate like 10/30 years will all go up gradually. not just china, probably Japan and Russia will be doing it too, they are all biggest USA debt holders. rates only have one way to go, UP UP UP.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 9:28 am

I thought there may be grain of truth in the 9/11 “truthers,” but not give it much more thought. During the election they kept screaming on street corners “The towers fell too fast!” And Bill Clinton kept shaking his finger at them saying in so many words that they were goof-balls.After seeing an architect in a local news clip, I went to ae911truth.org website. I decided to give it an honest read and went through the 563 slide, two hour presentation (I kept it in a separate tab and it took several days of on and off reading).All I have to say is Damn, the SOBs actually pulled off a Red Flag event.The reason that the truthers were yelling about the how fast the towers fell is that simple physics (even cartoon physics) says that when something falls on top of something else the else offers resistance and slows the something. But the top of the building fell as if there was nothing under it. The massive central core of 2″ thick 3ftX2ft box columns offered no resistance. And when it was over, all there was was dust and structural steal — all broken into similar 32ft sections.You may be thinking so what? Well, the what is that you have no reference point. The architects do a great job of describing how build fail and what they look like when they fail.The most important point, I guess, is how they use the scientific method to analyze the know data, the government’s explanations, and the government contractor’s explanations. Of course it does not add up and you are inexorably drawn to one conclusion — the towers and WTC7 were demolished with explosives.

FEDupJune 4th, 2009 at 9:33 am

As the church lady on SNL would say “Well, isn’t that special?” So our brilliant politicians give the ultimate incentive (zero down) for new buyers to walk away from their houses when times get tough again (99.9% probability). These people MUST be removed from politics!

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 9:34 am

“When the extended unemployment benefits run out, would the continuous claims fall starting at some point??”I think what they are really excited about is that new jobless claims haven’t exceeded the expired claims, thus a decrease in the continuous claims. But the expired claims also mean less consumer spending…

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 9:36 am

So, professor, when is your new analysis coming in light of new data? Make more sense of it for us…

FEDupJune 4th, 2009 at 9:45 am

Another glaring testament as to the power of the health insurance lobbyist’s profit motives and self serving interests of our elected officials taking precedence over what the majority of health care providers and people desire. Perhaps the time will come when the public decides “it’s too late to talk” about further injustices inflicted on them by our representatives and they will forcibly be removed from office.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 9:51 am

Dr. Roubini is waiting for the market to post a -3% day so that he can start talking bearishly without being laughed out of the room.

JLarkinJune 4th, 2009 at 10:07 am

It is commonly acknowledged that consumer spending is 70% of the $13 tn economy. So how can gov’t spending be 50%??

MM CAJune 4th, 2009 at 10:20 am

U6 is approaching 18% that is over 20 million peoplecurrent people on unemployment insurance is approx 6.8 million which last approx 59 weeks in most stateswe are now in a runrate where roughly 600K fall off insurance as 600k join inusrance…there are NO JOBS and NO JOB Creation going on… Walmart adding 22K job at 10 .00 an hour does nothing to help, in fact it hurts…. and niether does 2 million census workers at 10.00 an hour…Dont believe the positive spins, this is absolutley brutal and horrible for those losing thier jobs and our economy… the impact of these monthly run rates will not be felt for months in terms of folks not being to pay thier mortgaes, pay thier bills, spend, etc….Unemployment should nto be treated as lagging indicator as to the health of the eceonomy, it is now a forward indicator of probelms to come…THERE ARE NO JOBS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 10:20 am

Another sign of a failed political and financial system in the throes of desperation–more evidence of the force of the real economy wielding its relentless power, destroying the pillars of the false prosperity, tearing asunder the papered facade of fiat money, revealing the nothingness hidden behind the faked production, exposing the puniness of self-dealing central planners, of self-serving mice and men. In the end, the economy wins.Ozymandias | Percy Bysshe ShelleyI met a traveller from an antique landWho said: `Two vast and trunkless legs of stoneStand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,Tell that its sculptor well those passions readWhich yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.And on the pedestal these words appear –”My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!”Nothing beside remains. Round the decayOf that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,The lone and level sands stretch far away.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 10:39 am

Morphing into Third World territory, your government at work. As General Motors (Detroit) goes, so goes the nation—one-third in poverty, 32% of students graduated…every man an island:June 3 (Bloomberg) — General Motor Corp.’s bankruptcy…Michigan already has lost 780,000 jobs this decade, the most of any state. Its April unemployment rate of 12.9 percent was the highest in the country.The fourth-largest U.S. city for four decades starting in the 1930s, Detroit now ranks 11th. Its population of 916,952 is less than half the peak of 1.85 million in 1950.Now, with 6 of the 12 plants on GM’s bankruptcy hit list located in the state, Michigan and Detroit are bracing for what may be an accelerated exodus of people and jobs.“People have no job, no home, no credit and no reason to stay,” said Bob Daddow, deputy executive of Oakland County in suburban Detroit, which expects to lose one-third of its property-tax revenue from 2007 to 2011. “We’re very much still on a downward spiral and we haven’t hit bottom yet. I don’t see anything that will be good with the bankruptcy of GM.” …One-third of the population of Detroit, GM’s hometown, lives in poverty. That’s the most of any U.S. city with more than 250,000 people and almost triple the national rate. Public schools graduate 32 percent of their students, according to a study by Michigan State University, compared with the national average of 72 percent.GM’s Michigan employment has plunged to 47,330 today from 482,000 in 1978…http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a7IYfjQkC2RM

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 11:03 am

@Guest on 2009-06-03 22:33:28″So is he bad because he’s got Muslim roots, or is he bad because he’s a liberal Christian, or is he bad because he can use whichever facet works best with his audience.”I think you have captured the essence of the stated concern in your third alternative: e.g. say/do whatever to achieve an end.This is not an issue of religion but one of values, integrity and credibility.

ChignosJune 4th, 2009 at 11:13 am

Right. Inflate away debt bubbles created by the imprudent/greedy PTB. Mark, Fiat currency is always virtual, as is the full faith and credit of the USD/USG. What will happen this time? Who knows? One thing for sure: it won’t be exactly like any other time.

ChignosJune 4th, 2009 at 11:13 am

Right. Inflate away debt bubbles created by the imprudent/greedy PTB. Mark, Fiat currency is always virtual, as is the full faith and credit of the USD/USG. What will happen this time? Who knows? One thing for sure: it won’t be exactly like any other time.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 11:27 am

5,115 (FIVE THOUSAND, ONE HUNDRED FIFTEEN)RETIRED California government workersreceive pensionsin excess of $100,000from CalPERS.They’re all listed here.The information below was obtained under the Freedom of Information Act from the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS)… [does not include county and city government employees]This list may be be updated periodically with more pensioners as more data is obtained…Search the $100,000 Pension Club database …THE TOP 10 LIST–monthly– and–annual–retirement compensation:BRUCE MALKENHORST– 41,639.57– 499,674.84–VERNONJOAQUIN FUSTER– 24,712.99– 296,555.88– UC LOS ANGELESDONALD GERTH– 23,171.22– 278,054.64– CSU SACRAMENTOJAMES STAHL– 22,145.08– 265,740.96– L A CO SANIT #2JOHN SCHLAG– 21,300.04– 255,600.48– UC LOS ANGELESWILLIAM GARRETT– 21,228.81– 254,745.72– EL CAJONRAYMOND PATCHETT– 19,969.65– 239,635.80– CARLSBADROBERT TOONE JR– 19,412.28– 232,947.36– PALMDALEDIANNE OKI– 19,263.68– 231,164.16– STATE COMP INSCARL BORONKAY– 18,734.40– 224,812.80– METROPOLITAN WT…http://www.californiapensionreform.com/calpers/P.S. No market worries for the government retired. Says CalPERS:”CalPERS: Managing Through the Market Downturn”"The news in the financial markets can be alarming for our members, but it is important for you to know that the current credit crisis does not affect our ability to pay benefits. It is also important to note that your retirement benefits are protected by law. The pension system is designed to withstand market fluctuations…”Don’t you wish…

SoftwarengineerJune 4th, 2009 at 11:32 am

HI MICHELLEThat was then, now is now. The unofficial unemployment rate is like 25% today, yes, years ago you could sometimes get a fairly good job after college, today its horrifyingly bleek. Ask the recent graduates.Another thing, if you have a good paying college educated job and you’re a young adult with limited experience, remember in most cases: “Last one hired, first one laid off”. Ask an employment related attorney, he’ll agree with me.

AnonymousJune 4th, 2009 at 11:36 am

Or, a passenger got an explosive on board the plane and blew it up. I want to see the passenger list with names, not just nationalities of passengers.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 11:37 am

Michelle,I have no doubts you are a smart woman, but I think your judgment is being clouded by your own agenda. As for listening to brokers, I don’t do it. I’d rather live and die by my own sword.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 11:46 am

Michelle, don’t allow the minority to keep you from being you. Many and I bet most of us look forward to your sharing. You have offered up much that I enjoy consuming.hlowe

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 11:52 am

Have you noticed that when a state such as California runs short of money, the state employees have to take one or two days off a month without pay, but when private companies run short of money the employees have to take a 20% cut in pay…and keep working?

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 12:54 pm

“The world, in my view, is changing and is shifting away from the financial types to producers of real goods, and this is going to last for several decades as it always has. This may sound strange but it always happens this way. Ten years from now, it may be farmers who will drive the Lamborghinis and the stock brokers will drive tractors or taxis at best.” Jim Rogers

CahillJune 4th, 2009 at 1:05 pm

So Walmart is hiring 22K workers….big F’n deal. People are losing 50K + jobs a year to be replaced by $10 an hour jobs after spending fortunes on years of education and the market rally’s? GM files bankruptcy and we rally? The worthless financial analyst’s and news media make it out to to be huge. What is wrong with people, how much longer can we hide our heads in the sand?

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 1:07 pm

From “Fund Managers can become farmers: Jim Rogers”: The Economic Times 4 Jun 2009Q: Stocks are rising even as fiscal deficit is widening. Somewhere it has to snap…A: It’s going to snap. Later this year, next year, we are going to have currency problems, maybe even a currency crisis. I don’t know with which currency – maybe with the pound sterling, maybe with the US dollar, who knows. It may be with something none of us have at the moment. When you have a currency crisis, stocks will be affected, many things will be affected. It is not sound, what’s happening out there in the world.In the 1930s, we had a huge stock market bubble which popped. And then politicians started making many mistakes. They became protectionist. They made solvent banks take over insolvent banks and then both banks failed in the end.They are doing many of the same mistakes now. What’s different this time is that we are printing huge amounts of money which they did not print at that time. So, we are going to have inflation this time…Q: The possibility of a sovereign default in the developed world could further depress sentiments. You think it’s possible?A: In 1918, the UK was the richest and the most powerful country in the world. Within one generation it was in shambles, within two-and-a-half generations it defaulted. The UK defaulted in 1970s and had to be bailed out by the IMF. Many of the countries in the developed world are in serious trouble right now.Iceland has already defaulted. I think there could be a currency crisis because of sovereign debt problems .later this year, next year or 2011. Developed nations have defaulted before. Remember the Asian crisis. It was a default of one kind or the other. It has happened before and it will happen again…Q: That naturally brings us to the debate on a new international reserve currencyA: Several countries have raised the issue once again. The US dollar is terribly flawed right now. Something has to be done to the US dollar and something will be done just as something was done about the pound sterling. After World War II, people stopped using the pound sterling and converted to the dollar for many reasons. Something’s going to be done about the dollar.We are much closer to be doing something about it or will be forced to do something about it. India was forced to change in 1991 and the world will be forced to change the currency situation in the foreseeable future.Q: There is already an underlying fear that this mountain of cash will chase assets and eventually force central banks to mop up liquidity. How do you think this would play out?A: I know they all say, ‘Don’t worry, we will reverse gears and take the excess liquidity out in time.’ I don’t believe them for a minute. No one has ever done it that way. When central bankers started trying to, it caused so much pain that they quickly reversed or have got rid of that central banker and put somebody else in.I just don’t think they could do it. That’s why I am worried about the bond market and the inflation. If all central banks do it together, that’s going to lead to higher unemployment, riots in the streets, civil unrests…http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Opinion/Interviews/Fund-Managers-can-become-farmers-Jim-Rogers/articleshow/4610704.cms?curpg=4

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 1:16 pm

Guest Post: Update on Global Pension Tension – June 2009(Submitted to Naked Capitalism by Leo Kolivakis, publisher of Pension Pulse. June 4, 2009)It’s time to revisit global pension tension. Here are some of the stories covering the global assault on pensions:· CPP reforms will squeeze early retirees: Big changes to Canada Pension Plan benefits, announced last week, were overshadowed by news of a larger-than-expected federal deficit.· N..B. Investment Management Corp. reports pension funds fall 18.3%: The province’s pension plans suffered an 18.3 per cent loss last year due to the dramatic decline in global equity markets, according to the New Brunswick Investment Management Corp. The value of net assets under management shrank by $1.6 billion in fiscal 2008-09, finishing the year with $7 billion.· Air Canada unions may seek stake in pension talks: Air Canada’s unions will be looking for some concrete financial guarantees to backstop their pensions, including the possibility of taking a stake in the airline, when they collectively meet with management later this week to determine whether they will support a moratorium on their pension payments.· Iberia says BA pension very important to merger: Iberia and British Airways have no pre-determined deadline to complete merger talks, the Spanish carrier said on Wednesday, but added it was closely watching what burden BA’s pension fund would impose as part of the merger process.· BP and Barclays Propose Pension Restrictions to Cut Expenses: BP, Europe’s second-largest oil company, will close its final-salary pension plan to new U.K. workers, and Barclays Plc may ask 18,000 employees to give up similar benefits that the bank says have become too costly.· Crunch ‘an excuse to cut pensions’: The joint leader of the UK’s biggest trade union has accused employers of using the recession as an excuse to permanently cut pensions. Derek Simpson of Unite said the union would back workers if they decided to stand up to firms which were “hell bent” on eroding pension benefits. Mr Simpson expressed “outrage” at a series of announcements in recent days, including a move by Barclays to shut its final salary pension scheme to further contributions from existing members.· Paterson Vetoes Pension Guarantee for N.Y. Police, Firefighter: New York Governor David Paterson vetoed a bill that would prevent newly hired police and firefighters from getting less generous pension benefits than their senior colleagues, ending a guarantee the Legislature had extended for almost 30 years.· Delphi Salaried Retirees To Lose Pension Benefits: For these salaried retirees — and thousands more like them — the latest news from Delphi only adds more insult to injury. The bankrupt parts-maker now wants to get rid of its under-funded pension plan for former white-collar workers — meaning the federal Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation will take it over.· Hungary struggles to rein in runaway pension costs: The country’s poor demographics, failed reform, heavy and ineffective taxation, a skewed labour market and heavy debt burden all threaten the system with collapse and require quick action, analysts say.· Network Rail pension deficit swells by 80%: The owner of Britain’s rail system has seen its pension deficit nearly double after a 25 per cent fall in the value of its assets.· ECB Staff Plan Strike Over Pay, Pension Terms: European Central Bank union staff are planning the first labor action in the ECB’s 10-year history by walking off their jobs for 90 minutes on Wednesday. Union leaders warn that unless they get more of a say over how pensions and pay are set, there could be more.· UK faces ‘lost generation’ of pension savers: Many young people are failing to understand how much they need to save to maintain their standard of living in retirement – and are just choosing not to retire.· Another watershed for final salary pensions: Dr Ros Altmann is a former adviser to No. 10 on pensions. Here she explains that while private sector final salary schemes are finished, public sector schemes remain underwritten by the taxpayer.· Finally, McGuinty says he can’t understand Harper’s refusal to talk pension reform: Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s refusal to hold a national summit on pension reform is baffling, Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty said Tuesday as he predicted the issue would be intensely debated at the annual premiers’ meeting in Regina this summer…http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/

Guest339June 4th, 2009 at 1:17 pm

PeteCA, the other day you mentioned that you began seriously studying economics only in recent years. Are there a few books you recommend for someone who has only a basic understanding of economics?

HubbsJune 4th, 2009 at 1:21 pm

A way out of this mess? For Ben Bernanke, I dedicate this obscure, unfinished song that I stumbled upon.Appropriately titled: The Dreamerhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUS2ZLwr6As.

MichelleJune 4th, 2009 at 1:23 pm

How can you say that the last one hired is always the first one laid off? I don’t hire and fire people based on tenure, rather I evaluate each employee based on attributes important to the organization as a whole.Certainly work experience factors into a hiring decision as it MAY make it easier for me to make a final decision only in cases where the candidates are closely matched. But even then I’d evaluate the type of work experience and how it may relate to the current and future needs of the organization.I can tell you I will gladly hire a college graduate with an outgoing personality and strong skills with little or no work history versus an equally educated college graduate with a bad attitude but oodles of work experience.

FEDupJune 4th, 2009 at 1:26 pm

Agree! “The greed of the few have pushed aside the needs of the many”, yet most people don’t even see it or want to discuss it. As the rock band REM says it so well in their song Bad Day: “we’re sick of being jerked around, wear that on your sleeve…save my own ass, save these guys, smoke and mirror lockdown….”

subgeniusJune 4th, 2009 at 1:29 pm

Lamborghinis? Farmers? Thus Rogers illustrates the ancient (but forgotten) truth that ability to make money in the markets in the past in no way gives you the ability to accurately predict anything of true worth for the future.Study some hard science Jim.

MichelleJune 4th, 2009 at 1:34 pm

hlowe,Your comments are much appreciated. I thoroughly enjoy your posts as well. If I really didn’t like the ridicule, I would just stop posting. :)

MM CAJune 4th, 2009 at 2:03 pm

U6 is approaching 18% that is over 20 million peoplecurrent people on unemployment insurance is approx 6.8 million which lasts approx. 59 weeks in most stateswe are now on a runrate where roughly 600K fall off insurance as 600k join inusrance…there are NO JOBS and NO JOB Creation going on… Walmart adding 22K job at 10 .00 an hour does nothing to help, in fact it hurts…. and neither does 2 million census workers at 10.00 an hour…Don’t believe the positive spins, this is absolutley brutal and horrible for those losing thier jobs and our economy… the impact of these monthly run rates will not be felt for months in terms of folks not being able to pay thier mortgages, pay thier bills, spend, etc….Unemployment should not be treated as lagging indicator as to the health of the economy, it is now a forward indicator of probelms to come…THERE ARE NO JOBS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!also data suggests that 90% of folks who lose a job during recession/depression never again make what they were making. that my friends is called wage destruction by Big business…http://www.idahostatesman.com/235/story/790098.html?storylink=omni_popular

Plongka10June 4th, 2009 at 2:12 pm

LOL. Lamborghini started out making tractors. Oh well, shouldn’t be surprised really.

Plongka10June 4th, 2009 at 2:17 pm

They’ll just use all that liquidity to buy up assets at rock-bottom prices – as predicted.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 2:25 pm

i shorted above 940 and cashed out yesterday. now they pushed up over 940 again! no problem, i will just short more and cash out again. work harder, bulls !

MM CAJune 4th, 2009 at 2:38 pm

hmmm US GDP currently around 13T china around 4T… if china equals us anytime soon we DOA as a country.

MM CAJune 4th, 2009 at 2:53 pm

Food for thought: Hey Joe did we create or save Jobs this month? Mr. President there are NO JOBS!Tomorrow will likely bring more bad news for President Barack Obama on the number one issue for voters — the economy. The Labor Department’s monthly job report will almost certainly show unemployment topping 9%, with a couple hundred thousand more jobs lost in May.It will get worse before jobs get better. Congressional Budget Director Douglas W. Elmendorf recently predicted that unemployment will continue rising into the second half of next year and peak above 10%.Mr. Obama has an ingenious approach to job losses: He describes them as job gains. For example, last week the president claimed that 150,000 jobs had been created or saved because of his stimulus package. He boasted, “And that’s just the beginning.”However, at the beginning of January, 134.3 million people were employed. At the start of May, 132.4 million Americans were working. How was Mr. Obama magically able to conjure this loss of 1.9 million jobs into an increase of 150,000 jobs?As my former White House deputy press secretary Tony Fratto points out on his blog, the Labor Department does not and cannot collect data on “jobs saved.” So the Obama administration is asking that we accept its “clairvoyant ability to estimate,” and the White House press corps has let Mr. Obama’s ludicrous claim go virtually unchallenged.Still, there are limits to Mr. Obama’s rhetorical tricks. Even he cannot turn job losses into real job gains. And he won’t be rescued by stimulus spending.Former National Economic Council Director Keith Hennessey made a persuasive case on his blog that the stimulus will be ineffective because the additional economic growth it spurs will come six to nine months later than it could have.This is partly because, as the Congressional Budget Office estimates, only $185 billion (23% of a $787 billion stimulus package) will be spent this fiscal year. The government will spend an additional $399 billion next fiscal year. The balance — $203 billion — will be spent between fiscal years 2011 and 2019, long after the economy has turned on its own power and for its own reasons. In addition, much of the stimulus that went this year for tax cuts and transfer payments has been saved, not spent. (The national savings rate went from less than 0% to about 5%.)If the Obama administration were more serious about growing the economy than just growing government, the stimulus would have been front-loaded into this fiscal year.In addition, the claim made by Team Obama that every dollar in stimulus translates into a dollar-and-a-half in growth is economic fiction. The costs of stimulus reduce future growth. No country has ever spent itself to prosperity. The price of stimulus has to be paid sometime.Any real improvement in the economy so far is more likely the result of the Federal Reserve expanding the money supply and the Fed and Treasury shoring up the financial sector.But the Fed’s actions are risky. Easy money and expansionary policies are not sustainable. We may soon be in for a bout of inflation unless the Fed soaks up much of the money it flooded into the system. The government is also likely to hamper private investment as it uses a vast amount of capital to finance its debt. And when the Fed stomps on its monetary brakes, as eventually it must, we’ll get sluggish growth.The irony for Democrats is that the Fed may hit the brakes in the run-up to the 2010 congressional elections or the 2012 presidential election.It is becoming clear that the economy is now the top issue. Mr. Obama’s presidency may well rise or fall on it. The economy will be his responsibility long before next year’s elections. Americans may give him a chance to turn things around, but voters can turn unforgiving very quickly if promised jobs don’t materialize.That’s what happened in Louisiana, where voters accepted Democrat Gov. Kathleen Blanco’s missteps before Hurricane Katrina but brutally rejected her afterward because she failed to turn the state around.Until now, the new president has benefited from public willingness to give him a honeymoon. He decided to use that grace period to push for the largest expansion of government in U.S. history and to reward political allies (see the sweetheart deals Big Labor received in the GM and Chrysler bankruptcies).The difficulty for Mr. Obama will be when the public sees where his decisions lead — higher inflation, higher interest rates, higher taxes, sluggish growth, and a jobless recovery.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124407228244683091.html

MM CAJune 4th, 2009 at 2:55 pm

What is this country turning into?Medical bills play a role in 62% of bankruptcies, study saysPresident Obama meets with Senate Democrats to discuss healthcare at the White House. A study by Harvard researchers showing an increase in bankruptcies in which medical bills were a contributing cause could give Obama’s bid for healthcare reform a boost.Findings by Harvard researchers show that medical-related bankruptcies have increased from 55% in 2001. The report could boost Obama’s bid for healthcare reforms.President Obama’s push for healthcare reforms gets a boost today from a new study by Harvard University researchers that shows a sizable increase over six years in bankruptcies caused in part by ever-higher medical expenses.The study found that medical bills, plus related problems such as lost wages for the ill and their caregivers, contributed to 62% of all bankruptcies filed in 2007. On the campaign trail last year and in the White House this year, Obama had cited an earlier study by the same authors showing that such expenses played a part in 55% of bankruptcies in 2001.Medical insurance isn’t much help, either. About 78% of bankruptcy filers burdened by healthcare expenses were insured, according to the survey, to be published in the August issue of the American Journal of Medicine.”Health insurance is not a guarantee that illness won’t bankrupt you,” said Steffie Woolhandler, one of the authors, a practicing physician and an associate medical professor at Harvard.”Lots of health insurance comes with big co-payments, deductibles and uncovered services,” she said. “So you can be insured and still end up with big bills. At the same time, even if you have good insurance through your employer, you can lose it if you get sick and can’t work.”Most people who filed medical-related bankruptcies “were solidly middle class before financial disaster hit,” the study says. Two-thirds were homeowners, and most had gone to college.The study does not suggest that medical expenses were the sole cause for these bankruptcies, but it does identify them as a contributing factor. The increase in such filings occurred despite a 2005 law aimed at making it more difficult for individuals to seek court protection from creditors.And the latest study probably understates the current burden of medical expenses because it is based on bankruptcies filed before the recession hit.The findings by a team of Harvard researchers from the law and medical schools are expected to help fuel the debate over what type of healthcare system is right for the U.S.In a letter Wednesday, Obama made another push for a healthcare overhaul, reiterating his concern about the financial burden the current system places on families and businesses.”Soaring healthcare costs make our current course unsustainable,” he wrote in the letter to Sens. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) and Max Baucus (D-Mont.), who are leading efforts to develop healthcare legislation. “It is unsustainable for our families, whose spiraling premiums and out-of-pocket expenses are pushing them into bankruptcy and forcing them to go without the checkups and prescriptions they need.”Momentum has been growing in Congress for healthcare reform. Such change can’t come soon enough for Mary McCurnin.She and her husband, Ron, filed for bankruptcy and nearly lost their home near Sacramento after a series of medical crises, including her breast cancer and his open-heart surgery. Ron, 63, lost his insurance coverage when the company providing it lost its California license after paying 10% of his hospital bills. Mary, 59, managed to get on Medi-Cal after they “went broke.”Despite the ordeal, she said, the self-employed illustrators feel fortunate that they survived and managed to hang on to their home. “The healthcare industry is killing people,” she said. “There’s no other way to put it. We just got lucky.”Linda and Jeffrey Somach pay $800 a month for health insurance. But the Staten Island, N.Y., couple filed for bankruptcy a month ago when their out-of-pocket medical expenses surpassed $40,000.Linda Somach, a psychologist, can earn $80,000 a year if she sees patients full time. But she had to scale back to care for Jeffrey, who has terminal brain cancer. That reduced their income. At the same time, she is constantly getting bills for out-of-network charges, deductibles and medical care that their insurance doesn’t cover.”We put so much of the medical stuff on credit cards,” she said. “My patients do it too.”The study suggests that such plights are routine.Woolhandler is on the board of Physicians for a National Health Program, a group that advocates for a single-payer system, in which government, not private insurers, brokers healthcare. She said the study showed that private insurers had failed in their core mission: protecting consumers from financial ruin in the event of a medical crisis.”We need to rethink health reform,” Woolhandler said. “Covering the uninsured isn’t enough. Reform also needs to help families who already have insurance by upgrading their coverage and assuring they never lose it.”A spokesman for private insurers said the industry recognized that uncovered and expensive medical care imposed a burden on families and businesses. But he said that private insurers were in a better position to rein in spiraling medical costs and that the industry had a plan for protecting people from being forced into bankruptcy over medical expenses not covered by insurance.”In fact, in our comprehensive reform proposal we recommended in December that Congress should look at an out-of-pocket spending cap and a system of tax credits for low-income people,” Robert Zirkelbach, a spokesman for America’s Health Insurance Plans, a Washington, D.C.-based trade group.”If an individual’s health expenses reached a certain level, there could be tax credits or other assistance to help those individuals,” he said.The study found that medical-related bankruptcy filers with private insurance reported average medical bills of $17,749. By comparison, people who filed for bankruptcy without insurance reported average medical expenses of $26,971.Individuals with diabetes and neurological disorders, such as multiple sclerosis, had the highest medical bills, averaging $26,971 for those with insurance and $34,167 for those without. Hospital bills were the largest expense for about half the families that filed health-related bankruptcies.

MM CAJune 4th, 2009 at 2:59 pm

Jobless rates rise in U.S. metro areas in AprilEl Centro, Calif., has highest unemployment rate — 26.9 percentupdated 2:56 p.m. PT, Wed., June 3, 2009WASHINGTON – Jobless rates rose in all the largest U.S. metropolitan areas for the fourth straight month in April, a trend likely to persist even as the recession eases.The Labor Department said Wednesday that unemployment in April rose from a year earlier in all 372 metropolitan areas it tracks. Indiana’s Elkhart-Goshen’s rate jumped to 17.8 percent, up 12.7 percentage points from a year ago. The Indiana region, which posted the largest increase from last year, has been pounded by layoffs in the recreational vehicle industry.The second-highest jump occurred in Bend, Ore. Its rate rose to 15.6 percent, up 9 percentage points from last year. The region of North Carolina’s Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton saw its unemployment rate rise to 14.9 percent, a gain of 8.8 percentage points from last year.Most of the regions hardest hit have suffered big layoffs in manufacturing or have been clobbered by the collapse of the housing market, economists said. Factories reduced production as businesses slashed supplies of goods amid dwindling customer demand, said Mark Vitner, economist at Wachovia.All those negative forces rippled through metropolitan areas.“Municipal governments are strapped and have cut back,” Vitner said. “Retailers have closed shop. Problems have multiplied.”

MM CAJune 4th, 2009 at 3:08 pm

Sorry but without Jobs we are in trouble… I will continue to inform on the NO JOBS situation in this country… In addtion to the continuing loss of jobs, We also have WAGE DESTRUCTION occuring for any new jobs and even for people who still have jobs?The new ‘good’ job: 12 bucks an hourIn the Midwest, communities race to replace dwindling auto jobs with renewable energy ones, but workers will have to sacrifice on their pay.feed://rss.cnn.com/rss/money_news_economy.rssPaste this link into your favorite RSS desktop readerSee all CNNMoney.com RSS FEEDS (close) By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writerLast Updated: June 4, 2009: 12:07 PM ETIron workers at the Minster Machine Company start at $17.50 an hour whether they’re making parts for the wind or auto industry.Detroit’s Youth: Stay or go?The young people of Motown have a tough choice: Go where the jobs take them or stick around Detroit and tough it out.NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Massive investment in renewable energy could ultimately create 4 million manufacturing jobs. But for the workers in the bottom rung of this movement, the shift to green jobs could very well mean a pay cut of nearly 60%, a trend spreading across the entire manufacturing sector.Many of the entry-level jobs making green energy components start at $12 an hour, much less than the now extinct $28 an hour job that had allowed high school-educated workers in the auto sector to achieve middle class status.”Particularly at the lower end, these are not very good jobs,” said Philip Mattera, research director at Good Jobs First, a labor-friendly research group, also acknowledging that the renewable energy sector paid wages that were “all over the map.”Talkback: Is $12 an hour a decent wage?Americans are betting that molding steel wind turbines, slicing silicon for solar panels and making batteries for electric cars will put them back on top of the manufacturing game. The 4 million new jobs, estimated by the University of California, Berkeley, would bring back more than half of all the manufacturing jobs lost in this country since the sector’s heyday in the late 1970s.At a battery plant just outside Indianapolis, job growth could boom. The plant is owned by EnerDel, the car battery division of Ener1. Here, the company is racing to build a cost competitive battery for an all-electric car. If it gets a government loan it’s applying for, the company plans on hiring up to 3,000 people. That’s roughly what a big auto plant employs.But $12 an hour is the starting wage for a production worker.While the starting wages at EnerDel are lower than what the auto industry pays, company executives stressed salaries go up quickly as skill sets improve. They also stressed a company like EnerDel employs lots of skilled workers too, from the electrical engineers needed to design the batteries to the mechanical engineers who build the machines.A level pay scale. The diversity of jobs in the renewable energy business is one thing supporters of green manufacturing tout. They say people should look beyond the starting wages for labor when judging the industry.”I cannot think of an industry that has more diversity in wages,” said Jackie Roberts, director of sustainable technology at the Environmental Defense Fund.Plus, $12 an hour is in-line with the average wage for an electronics assembler in the Indianapolis area, according to the Labor Department.It’s a similar scene at a plant making silicon for solar panels up in Michigan. Just outside of Saginaw, an executive at Hemlock Semiconductor would only say the company paid “competitive wages.”But people in town said the non-union Hemlock plant paid around $10 an hour for unskilled production workers and $20 an hour for skilled ones.Mike Hanley, president of the local United Auto Workers union, said he hoped green manufacturing will become more unionized going forward. But he agreed that the wages at Hemlock were pretty good for the area.Not just green industry. Environmental Defense’s Roberts notes that besides new companies making things specifically for the renewable energy business, as is the case with EnerDel, there are also lots of manufacturing firms that make components for both the green and traditional industries.”There are manufacturing jobs,” she said. “They have the same wages as anyone making components for any other industry.”That’s the case in Minster, Ohio, where the Minster Machine Company turns out both parts for wind turbines as well as machines for other the auto and food processing industries.Building windmills in Rust BeltInside the company’s massive iron foundry, workers start at $17.50 and hour whether they are pouring castings for a wind turbine hub or an auto stamping machine.But the company’s president, John Winch, noted that in the long run, wages in the U.S. will probably come down as wages in the developing world come up – all part of the globalization process.”The wage scale will probably be more dependent on what the world’s wage scale is,” said Winch.Even in the auto industry, $28-an-hour is no longer the starting wage. Since 2007 the industry has had a two-tier wage system, meaning that when they start hiring again the new starting wage will be $14 an hour

ToothFairyJune 4th, 2009 at 3:16 pm

It is important in these times, when people might be looking for wisdom from legends of the past, to keep a balanced perspective.Towards that end, an excellent book, published a few decades back entitled “Out of this Furnace,” gives clear insight into the nature of Andrew Carnegie and the impact on the blue collar labor force of his business motivations.It would be fascinating to be able to ask an honest, reliably informed person from that era – who they thought most closely resembles Andrew Carnegie in the current state of events in the USA (or the world).

MM CAJune 4th, 2009 at 3:27 pm

Annual salaries at respective hourly rates. i would be interested in anyone who has data on what pct of workers fall into certain wage categories or what the future may look like for those who find a job or have a job. All know is that the WAGE DESTRUCTION RESET is in progress….. At what level below can someone “afford” as 250K house?2,080 $12.00 $24,960.002,080 $13.00 $27,040.002,080 $14.00 $29,120.002,080 $15.00 $31,200.002,080 $16.00 $33,280.002,080 $17.00 $35,360.002,080 $18.00 $37,440.002,080 $19.00 $39,520.002,080 $20.00 $41,600.002,080 $21.00 $43,680.002,080 $22.00 $45,760.002,080 $23.00 $47,840.002,080 $24.00 $49,920.002,080 $25.00 $52,000.002,080 $26.00 $54,080.002,080 $27.00 $56,160.002,080 $28.00 $58,240.002,080 $29.00 $60,320.002,080 $30.00 $62,400.00

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 3:34 pm

This is not an issue of religion but one of values, integrity and credibility. Then it should be debated as such. A valid discussion would be about his credibility, values and integrity as compared to a REASONABLE standard of behavior. What value is he violating, what has he said/done to compromised his integrity or eroded his credibility. I think you have captured the essence of the stated concern in your third alternative: e.g. say/do whatever to achieve an end. So the concern is that he is more than a two dimensional character? I can, for example, present myself as a housekeeper, or as a graduate student, or a laboratory technician. All are job functions I perform and pieces of my life, but do I lose credibility for having multiple facets? The primary criticism in the above article is that President Obama is promoting one facet of his history over another to persuade his target audience. Does that make him a liar? I don’t think so. The entire US political system is based on ability of a individual to persuade a majority to vote for them, and then people get upset when our politicians use every reasonable avenue at their disposal to accomplish that. It’s especially ironic in this case, when the objection is “doing whatever it takes to achieve an end,” when the end in question is improved international relations and peaceful coexistence.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 4:04 pm

Front load, back load, I don’t think it makes a difference. After the stimulus has been spent, what is the impetus for maintaining the stimuli-induced jobs? We need a new model for growth.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 4:17 pm

There are no wage levels listed at which someone could reasonably afford a $250k house.

MorbidJune 4th, 2009 at 4:25 pm

MM CA,

She and her husband, Ron, filed for bankruptcy and nearly lost their home near Sacramento after a series of medical crises, including her breast cancer and his open-heart surgery. Ron, 63, lost his insurance coverage when the company providing it lost its California license after paying 10% of his hospital bills. Mary, 59, managed to get on Medi-Cal after they “went broke.”

What did the open heart surgery costs and the breast cancer treatment? I had a sister-in-law, who also has diabetes, that went through open heart surgery – cost around $80,000. That should be treated as elective and therefore rationed care. May sound cruel but that is what is sustainable. Now her hips, knees, back are going out and she wants it all fixed of course even though she is about 200 pounds overweight.We are not living reality folks. And all these politicians have got the masses hooked on HOPIUM that the other guy will pay for – meaning your children, etc. Do them a favor and live within the means you have not what ‘others might be able to do for you.”I say, “stop the bleeding.” Stop all the wars and global trading, bring the troops home, close the borders and hunker down and try cutting as many expenditures as possible like paring back the military budget about 70% and then maybe we can even afford better health care.

MM CAJune 4th, 2009 at 4:42 pm

Annual Hourly Annual Med and TotalHours Dental2,080 $12.00 $24,960.00 $12,000.00 $36,960.002,080 $13.00 $27,040.00 $12,000.00 $39,040.002,080 $14.00 $29,120.00 $12,000.00 $41,120.002,080 $15.00 $31,200.00 $12,000.00 $43,200.002,080 $16.00 $33,280.00 $12,000.00 $45,280.002,080 $17.00 $35,360.00 $12,000.00 $47,360.002,080 $18.00 $37,440.00 $12,000.00 $49,440.002,080 $19.00 $39,520.00 $12,000.00 $51,520.002,080 $20.00 $41,600.00 $12,000.00 $53,600.002,080 $21.00 $43,680.00 $12,000.00 $55,680.002,080 $22.00 $45,760.00 $12,000.00 $57,760.002,080 $23.00 $47,840.00 $12,000.00 $59,840.002,080 $24.00 $49,920.00 $12,000.00 $61,920.002,080 $25.00 $52,000.00 $12,000.00 $64,000.002,080 $26.00 $54,080.00 $12,000.00 $66,080.002,080 $27.00 $56,160.00 $12,000.00 $68,160.002,080 $28.00 $58,240.00 $12,000.00 $70,240.002,080 $29.00 $60,320.00 $12,000.00 $72,320.002,080 $30.00 $62,400.00 $12,000.00 $74,400.00

MM CAJune 4th, 2009 at 4:44 pm

anyone know how many workers dont get these types of benefits today?WW / 4% W / 5% Pension Total Benefits Total Salary 401K Match Contribution Benefits And Benefits$998.40 $1,248.00 $14,246.40 $39,206.40$1,081.60 $1,352.00 $14,433.60 $41,473.60$1,164.80 $1,456.00 $14,620.80 $43,740.80$1,248.00 $1,560.00 $14,808.00 $46,008.00$1,331.20 $1,664.00 $14,995.20 $48,275.20$1,414.40 $1,768.00 $15,182.40 $50,542.40$1,497.60 $1,872.00 $15,369.60 $52,809.60$1,580.80 $1,976.00 $15,556.80 $55,076.80$1,664.00 $2,080.00 $15,744.00 $57,344.00$1,747.20 $2,184.00 $15,931.20 $59,611.20$1,830.40 $2,288.00 $16,118.40 $61,878.40$1,913.60 $2,392.00 $16,305.60 $64,145.60$1,996.80 $2,496.00 $16,492.80 $66,412.80$2,080.00 $2,600.00 $16,680.00 $68,680.00$2,163.20 $2,704.00 $16,867.20 $70,947.20$2,246.40 $2,808.00 $17,054.40 $73,214.40$2,329.60 $2,912.00 $17,241.60 $75,481.60$2,412.80 $3,016.00 $17,428.80 $77,748.80$2,496.00 $3,120.00 $17,616.00 $80,016.00

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 4:49 pm

For 30yr @5.5% taxes 1.2% (california) and insurance $700 (annually)No down payment would need $62,000. w/20% down $51,782. would do.In perhaps another month you will be reading in the news “Entry level single family home prices rise month over month in San Diego”.hlowe

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 5:12 pm

Go back to the old rule of thumb of being able to afford a house that is three times one’s annual salary. Regardless, if I made $52k I would not buy a $250k house. I don’t care how low the interest rate is.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 5:27 pm

Guest on 2009-06-04 15:34:52What you describe as “two dimensional” another might describe as duplicitous, perhaps a kinder word would be insincere. What some refer to as two faced other call pragmatic. Politicians are all of the above.

PermaBull Wins everytimeJune 4th, 2009 at 5:56 pm

Friends, the old times are back — bigger and better.I was talking to my friend who has negotiated a lower mortgage because he said he told the bank he wouldn’t pay. Now he is back to putting things on credit card, buying every ‘new’ thing. This recession was no recession, it was mild at best.Most people did not get very much affected. Very soon people will start finding jobs and party will continue. Because stocks have risen, spending rises which in turn benefits stocks! S&P 500 is soon going to hit 1400-1500, there will be +400K jobs every months and all will be well.The only lesson from this is that people never learn any lesson.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 6:02 pm

Most Buyers will refer to said rule when interest rates are around 11.8% (w/20% down) I certainly hope you don’t refer to that rule if interest rates get to 15%. It’s all about monthly payment for the average person; interest rates largely determine value of the home (all else being static). Personally, I am waiting for the interest rate to go up as I think it is inevitable, but…hlowe

Guest tooJune 4th, 2009 at 6:08 pm

Bread and circusesFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaJump to: navigation, searchThis article is about the phrase. For other uses, see Bread and circuses (disambiguation).”Bread and circuses” (or Bread and games) (from Latin: panem et circenses) is a metaphor for handouts and petty amusements that politicians use to gain popular support, instead of gaining it through sound policy. The phrase is invoked not only to criticize politicians, but also to criticize their supporters for giving up their civic duty.HistoryThis phrase originates in Satire X of the Roman poet Juvenal (c 200). In context, the Latin phrase panis et circenses (bread and circuses) is given as the only remaining cares of a Roman populace which has given up its birthright of political involvement. Here Juvenal displays his contempt for the declining heroism of his contemporary Romans.[1]:… Already long ago, from when we sold our vote to no man, the People have abdicated our duties; for the People who once upon a time handed out military command, high civil office, legions — everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses… iam pridem, ex quo suffragia nulli uendimus, effudit curas; nam qui dabat olim imperium, fasces, legiones, omnia, nunc se continet atque duas tantum res anxius optat, panem et circenses.(Juvenal, Satire 10.77–81)Juvenal here makes reference to the Roman practice of providing free wheat to Roman citizens as well as costly circus games and other forms of entertainment as a means of gaining political power through populism. The Annona (grain dole) was begun under the instigation of the popularis politician Gaius Sempronius Gracchus in 123 BC; it remained an object of political contention until it was taken under the control of the Roman emperors.Spanish intellectuals between the 19th and 20th centuries complained about the similar pan y toros (“bread and bullfights”). It appears similarly in Russian as хлеба и зрелищ (“bread and spectacle”).Aldous Huxley used the phrase in Brave New World Revisited as an example of one of the ideas he used as a theme in Brave New World.The song “Panis et Circenses,” written by Gilberto Gil and Caetano Veloso and performed by Os Mutantes, is considered a manifesto of the Tropicalia music and art movement, as is the compilation album that shares its name..(Tom Waits/K. Brennan)In The ColosseumNow women all control their menWith razors and with wristsAnd the princess squeezes grape juiceOn a torrid bloody kissWhat will you be wearing thereThe lion or the raven hair?The flesh will all be tearingBut the tail will be my ownIn the Colosseum, in the ColosseumIn the Colosseum tonight. 2 xThis one’s for the balconyAnd this one’s for the floorAs the senators decapitateThe Presidential WhoreThe bald headed senatorsAre splashing in the bloodThe dogs are having someoneWho is screaming in the mudIn the Colosseum, in the ColosseumIn the Colosseum tonight. 2 xNow it’s raining and it’s pouringOn the pillaging and goringThe constable is swingingFrom the chainsFor the dead there is no storyNo memory no blameTheir families shout blue murderBut tomorrow it’s the sameIn the Colosseum, in the ColosseumIn the Colosseum tonight.In the Colosseum, call ‘em as they see ‘emIn the Colosseum tonight.A slowly acting poisonWill be given to the favorite oneThe dark horse will bring gloryTo the jailer and his menIt’s always much more sportingWhen there’s families in the pitAnd the madness of the crowdIs given epileptic fitIn the Colosseum, in the ColosseumIn the Colosseum tonight.In the Colosseum, call ‘em as they see ‘emIn the Colosseum tonight.No justice here, no libertyNo reason, no blameThere’s no cause to taint the sweetest taste of bloodAnd greetings from the nationAs we shake the hands of timeThey’re taking their ovationThe vultures stay behindIn the Colosseum, in the ColosseumIn the Colosseum tonight. 2x.In the Colosseum tonightIn the Colosseum tonight.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 6:40 pm

Are you being sarcastic? I assume so, because general stupidity and greed will not fix things; it will only mask things slightly, for awhile longer.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 6:49 pm

No short-haired yellow-bellied son of Tricky Dick is gonna Mother Hubbard soft-soap me with just a pocketful of hope.–John Lennon

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 7:00 pm

I met a Preacher today. He prayed with me, and he told me the Lord was always with me. I was so filled with the Spirit, I got in my car and ran three red lights in His honor.–Mick Jagger

Average JaneJune 4th, 2009 at 7:12 pm

You’re on a higher plane, blindly. Go to the head of the class. Chignos, pay attention.

Average JaneJune 4th, 2009 at 7:18 pm

This really calls for another round of blast faxes and e-mails and phone calls to our clueless elected representatives, doesn’t it, FEDup? It is astonishing to me that Baucus won’t even let single-payer advocates into his committee meetings when 70% of the population is screaming for single-payer health care.Premiums are only going to go up and up until consumers put our collective foot down. Witness the power of shutting our collective wallets. We can do this.Thanks for your well-thought-out and well-written posts, FEDup. I enjoy you immensely.

Guest alsoJune 4th, 2009 at 7:18 pm

http://www.militaryindustrialcomplex.com/.RECENT updated M-F after 5PM ETThere were 9 publicly-reported Defense Contracts listed [ TODAY ] totaling $387,413,784.DAY PRIORThere were 16 publicly-reported Defense Contract listed [ YESTERDAY ] totaling $2,377,559,659.THIS WEEK33 publicly-reported Defense Contracts are listed This Week totaling $3,164,732,822.LAST WEEK54 publicly-reported Defense Contracts were listed Last Week totaling $2,918,362,924.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 7:25 pm

and they all need a bailout…. every day..Corporations, Companies and FirmsContracts grouped by company name.If on a PC, use Cntrl+F to find a company name faster..• 3-D Engineering CorporationA• A & H Contractors, Incorporated• A1 Signal Research, Incorporated• AAI Corporation• ACC Construction• Accenture LLP• Accenture Nation Security Systems LLC• Accenture National Services LLC, Incorporated• Acepex Management Corporation• Actel Corporation• ActioNet, Incorporated• Adaptive Methods, Incorporated• ADI Limited• Addx• AECOM Government Services• Aeroflex Corporation• Aerojet General Corporation (ALL)• Aerojet General Corporation, Aerojet Propulsion Division• Aerospace Testing Alliance• AEY, Incorporated• Advanced Acoustics Concepts, Incorporated• Advanced American Construction, Incorporated• Advanced Systems Development, Incorporated• Aero Company• Aeroflex Corporation• Aerojet-General Corporation• Aerospace Testing Alliance (ATA)• AeroVironment Corporation• AGE Refining, Incorporated• 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Incorporated• College of American Pathologists• Colsa Corporation• Colt Defense LLC• Columbia Research Corporation• Colville Tribal Services Corporation• Communications and Power Industries, Traveling Wave Technology• Compass Systems, Incorporated• Complex Solutions, Incorporated• Computer Science Corporation• Computer Sciences Parson, LLC• Computer Sciences Raytheon• Comtech Mobile Datacom Corporation• Communication Technologies, Incorporated• Conax Florida Corporation• Conoco, Incorporated• ConocoPhillips• Constellation New Energy, Incorporated• Container Machinery, Incorporated• Conti Environment and Infrastructure, Incorporated• Contingency Response Services LLC• Contrack international, Incorporated• Core Tech International Corporation• Carothers Construction, Incorporated• Cottrell Contracting Corporation• Cox Construction Company• CP of Bozeman, Incorporated• Creative Times, Incorporated• Crowley Petroleum Distribution• Crown Roofing Services, Incorporated• CSC Applied 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C3 Systems LLC• DRS Sensors and Targeting Systems• DRS Sensors and Targeting Systems, Incorporated, Infrared Technology Division• DRS Sustainment Systems, Incorporated• DRS Test & Energy Management, Incorporated• DS2• DTM Corporation• DTS Aviation Services, Incorporated• Ducopak• Dutch Valley• Dynamic Flowform Corporation• DynCorp International, LLC• DynCorp Technical LLC• DZSP 21 LLCE• EA Engineering, Science and Technology, Incorporated• EA Industries, Incorporated• EADS North American Defense• Eagan McAllister, Incorporated• Earl Industries LLC• Earle Industries• East Coast Fruit Company• Eastern GCR LLC JV• Ebrex Food Services Sarl• ECI Construction, Incorporated• EDO (ALL)• EDO Communications and Countermeasures Systems• EDO Corporation• EDO Corporation, Defense Systems• EDO MTECH, Incorporated• EDO Technical Services Operations• EFW, Incorporated• EG&G Technical Services, Incorporated• E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company• El Concorde LLC• Electric Boat Corporation• Electro Mechanical Corporation• Electro-Methods, Incorporated• EMC2 Corporation• EMCOR Facilities Services• Emerald Coast Utility Authority• Emerson Construction Company, Incorporated• Engineering Design Technologies, Incorporated• Engineered Fabrics Corporation• Engineering Management Concepts of Camarillo• Ensign-Bickford Aerospace and Defense Company• Entereza Network Solution, Incorporated• Enterprise Engineering, Incorporated• Entwistle Company• Envision• Envisioneering• EOD Technology, Incorporated• Epic Aviation dba Air BP• Equilon Enterprises• Esterline Armtec Defense, Incorporated• eVenture Technologies LLC• Everts Air Fuel• EWA Government Systems, Incorporated• Exxon Mobil Fuels Marketing CompanyF• Facchina Construction Company, Incorporated• FCI Constructors, Incorporated• Facilities Support Services LLC• F-E Contracting, Incorporated• Federal Cartridge Company• Federal Express (FedEx) Corporation• Federal Express Charter Programs Team Arrangement• Fisher Scientific Company LLC• FGM, Incorporated• Flight Safety Services Corporation• Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority• Force 3, Incorporated• Force Protection Industries, Incorporated• ForceX, Incorporated• Fordice Construction Company• Forrester Construction Company• Forward Slope, Incorporated• Foster-Miller, Incorporated• Fox Apparel• FLIR Services, Incorporated• FMC Technologies (ALL)• FMC Technologies Airport Division• FMC Technologies, Incorporated, Jetway Systems Division• FMW Composite Systems, Incorporated• FN Manufacturing, Incorporated• FN Manufacturing LLC• Frank Gargiulo and Son, Incorporated• Frawner Corporation• Freightliner, LLC• FWH LLCG• Gary-Williams Energy Corporation• Gaver Technologies, Incorporated dba GTI Federal• Genco Infrastructure Solutions• General Atomics (ALL)• General Atomics Aeronautical System• General Construction Company• General Dynamics (ALL)• General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems, Incorporated• General Dynamics Armament and Technical Products, Incorporated• General Dynamics C4 Systems• General Dynamics Electric Boat Corporation• General Dynamics Information Technology• General Dynamics Land Systems, Incorporated• General Dynamics Land Systems – Canada Corporation• General Dynamics Land Systems, General Dynamics Amphibious Systems• General Dynamics. National Steel and Shipbuilding Company• General Dynamcs Ordnance and Tactical Systems, Incorporated• General Electric Aviation• General Electric Company (ALL)• General Electric Company Aircraft Engines• General Electric Company, Aircraft Engines Business Group• General Electric Engineering Services, Incorporated• General Electric Transportation Aircraft Engines• General Industries• General Injectables & Vaccines• General Motors General Dynamics Land Systems Defense Group, LLC• General Purpose Vehicles LLC• Gichner Shelter Systems• Golden Manufacturing Company, Incorporated• Goodrich Corporation• Goodrich Corporation Group Goodrich Aerostructures• GovConnections, Incorporated• Global Fleet Sales, Incorporated• Global Ground Support LLC• Global Investment Recovery• Global Language Systems LLC• Global PCCI• Global Strategies Group• Global Technical Systems• Globe Trailer Manufacturing, Incorporated• GM GDLS Defense Group LLC• Granite Construction Company• Graybar Electric Company• Great Eastern Group, Incorporated• Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Company• GrimmerSchmidt Compressors LLC• Grip Pod Systems LLC• Grunley Walsh US LLC• GSC Construction, Incorporated• GTA Containers, Incorporated• GTI Federal• Guam Industrial Services, Incorporated• Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation• Gyrocam Systems LLCH• H Koch and Sons Company• Halbert Construction Company, Incorporated• Hamps Construction, LLC• Harbor Offshore, Incorporated• Harkins Builders, Incorporated• Harmonia, Incorporated• Harper Construction Company, Incorporated• Harris Corporation• Harris Corporation RF Communications• Harry Pepper and Associates, Incorporated• Haskell Company• HATCO Corporation• Hawaiian Dredging Construction Company, Incorporated• Hawker Beechcraft Corporation• Hawkeye Glove Mfg• Hawthorne Services, Incorporated• Hazard Protection Systems, Incorporated• Healy Tibbitts Builders, Incorporated• Heil Trailer International• Helber Hastert and Fee Planners, Incorporated• Henry M Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicines• Henry Schein, Incorporated• Hensel Phelps Construction Company• Hermes Consolidated, Incorporated• Hess Corporation• Hewlett-Packard Company• Hightower Construction Company, Incorporated• HITT Contracting, Incorporated• Hoffman Construction of Washington• Holston Defense Corporation• Honeywell (ALL)• Honeywell International, Incorporated• Honeywell Incorporated, Defense and Space Electronic Systems• Honeywell Technology Solutions, Incorporated• Hontek Corporation• Hood Technology Corporation• Horizon Lines LLC• Horus Vision LLC• Hourigan Construction Corporation• HRL Laboratories• Hummingbird Aviation LLC• Hunt Building Company LTD• Hunt Refining Company• Husky Marketing and Supply Company• Hutchinson Industries• Hydraulics International, Incorporated• Hydroid LLCI• IAP World Services, Incorporated• IBIS TEK• Icaro Diecisiete LTDA• ICON Consulting Group, Incorporated• I E Pacific, Incorporated• IMIA LLC• Imperial Sales Company• IMT Defense Corporation• Inglett and Stubbs International• Inlet Petroleum Company• InnovaSystems International LLC• Innovative Scientific Solutions, Incorporated• Innovative Technical Solutions, Incorporated• Insight Environmental Engineering and Construction, Incorporated• Insight Technology, Incorporated• Integral Systems, Incorporated• Integrity Applications, Incorporated• Integrys Energy Services, Incorporated• Intelesis Technologies Corporation• International Business Machines Corporation• International Development and Resources, Incorporated• International Military and Government LLC• International Oil Trading Company• International Resources, Incorporated• International Truck and Engine Corporation• Interstate Electronics Corporation• Interstate Storage and Pipeline Corporation• IntraLase Corporation• Ionatron• IsoBunkers LLC• ITT Corporation, Advanced Engineering and Services• ITT Corporation, Aerospace Communications Division• ITT Industries, Incorporated• ITT Industries Systems Division• ITT Night VisionJ• J & J Contractors• Jacobs Facilities, Incorporated• Jacobs Technology, Incorporated• Jacobs / Tetra Tech• Jahn Corporation• James River Solutions• JCB, Incorporated• JD Abrams LLP• Jianas Brothers Packaging Company• JE McAmis• J.I. Garcia Construction, Incorporated• JLG Industries, Incorporated• J M Waller Associates, Incorporated• JMR Construction Corporation• John C Grimberg Company, Incorporated• John Deere Construction and Forrestry Corporation, The• John Deere Construction Retails Sales• Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD• Johnson Outdoors• Jordon-BE & K Federal GroupK• Kalmar RT Center LLC• Kalyn Siebert, Incorporated• Kaman Dayron, Incorporated• Kellogg Brown & Root Services• Kentucky Department for the Blind• Kepler Research, Incorporated• Kidde Dual Spectrum• Kidde Technologies, Incorporated• Kiewet Federal Group, Incorporated• Kiewit Pacific Company• Kiewit-General a Joint Venture• Kilgore Flares Company, LLC• King Fisher Marine Service LP• Kitware, Incorporated• KL House Construction Company, Incorporated• KOO Construction, Incorporated• Kollmorgen Corporation, Electro-Optical Division• Kongsberg Defense• Korte Company, The• Kovatch Corporation• Knights Armament Company• Krempp Lumber Company, TheL• L-3 Combat Propulsion Systems• L-3 Communications Cincinnati Electronics• L-3 Communications Corporation (ALL)• L-3 Communications Corporation, Communications Systems West• L-3 Communications Corporation, Integrated Systems Joint Operations• L-3 Communications TItan Corporation, Intelligence Systems Division• L-3 Communications Corporation, Link Simulation and Training• L-3 Communications Electron Technologies, Incorporated• L-3 Communications, Linkabit Division• L-3 Communications System West• L-3 Communications Titan Corporation• L-3 Communications Vertex Aerospace LLC• L-3 Services, Incorporated• L-3 Services, Incorporated, Unidyne Division• L-3 Titan Corporation• LABATT Food Service, Incorporated• Lake Moultrie Construction, Incorporated• Lakeshore Engineering Services, Incorporated• Lawman Heating and Cooling, Incorporated• Lean Quest, LLC• Lear Siegler Services, Incorporated• Lee Escher Oil Company, Incorporated• Leemon Oil Company, Incorporated• Lincoln Public Schools• LINXX Security Services• Lion Vallen Limited Partnership• Litton Systems, Incorporated• Lobar, Incorporated• Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Global Sustainment• Lockheed Martin Aircraft and Logistics• Lockheed Martin Company, Lockheed Martin Aeronautical Systems• Lockheed Martin Corporation (ALL)• Lockheed Martin Corporation, Lockheed Martin Aeronautical Systems Company• Lockheed Martin Corporation, Lockheed Martin Simulator, Training and Support• Lockheed Martin Corporation, Lockheed Martin Systems Integration• Lockheed Martin Corporation, Naval Electronics and Surveillance Division• Lockheed Martin Corporation, Space Systems Company• Lockheed Martin Corporation, Training Systems, Sensors• Lockheed Martin Integrated Defense Systems• Lockheed Martin Integrated Systems and Solutions• Lockheed Martin Maritime Systems and Sensors• Lockheed Martin Missile and Fire Control• Lockheed Martin MS2 Division• Lockheed Martin Services, Incorporated• Lockheed Martin Space Systems Corporation• Lockheed Martin Systems Integration• LOM• Long Beach• Longbow LLC• Longbow Liability Company• LLC International Truck Body• Lowry Computer Products, Incorporated• LPI Technical Services• LTM, Incorporated• Lynden Air Cargo LLCM• M2 Technologies, Incorporated• M7 Aerospace• M & S Foods Ltd Company• M/A-Com, Incorporated• MacAulay-Brown, Incorporated• M A Mortenson Company, Incorporated• Mabey Bridge and Shore, Incorporated• Machining Technologies• MacGREGOR USA, Incorporated• Macquarie Aviation North America 2, Incorporated Atlantic Gulfport Division• Macaulay-Brown, Incorporated• MACRO-Z Technology Company• Maine Secure Composites LLC• Management Consulting, Incorporated• MAN Diesel LTD• Manson Construction Company• ManTech Enterprise Integration Center, Advanced Systems International, Incorporated• ManTech Systems Engineering Corporation• Manufacturing Technology, Incorporated• Marine Hydraulics International• Marinette Marine Corporation• Mark G Miller, Incorporated• Martin Construction, Incorporated• Martin Electronics, Incorporated• Mason & Hanger Corporation• Matson Navigation Company, Incorporated• Maytag Aircraft Corporation• Materials Sciences Corporation• Maxim Systems, Incorporated• MBDA, Incorporated• M.C. Dean, Incorporated• McDonnell Douglas Corporation (ALL)• McDonnell Douglas Helicopter Company• McDonnell Douglas Helicopter Corporation• McGoldrick Construction Services Corporation• McKesson Corporation• McLaughlin Research Corporation• McLean Contracting Company• MedImmune Shepherdsville• Medtronic Emergency Response Systems• Melwood Horticultural Training Center, Incorporated• Menlo Worldwide Government Services, LLC• Meridian Airport Authority dba Meridian Aviation• Merlin International, Incorporated• Metal USA i-Solutions• Miami Air International, Incorporated• Michelin Aircraft Tire Company, LLC• Michelin North America, Incorporated• Microelectronics Advanced Research Corporation• MidAmerican Energy Company• Midwest Research Institute• Military Systems Group, Incorporated• Miller Watts Constructors-Pave Tech, A Joint Venture• Minacorp Ltd• Miramar Construction, Incorporated• Misener Construction, Incorporated• Mississippi Limestone Corporation• Mitchell Brothers, Incorporated• MITRE Corporation• MKI Systems• MMI – Federal Marketing Service Corporation• Montana Refining Company, Incorporated• Montgomery Watson Harza, MWH Constructors, Incorporated• Morgan Stanley Capital Group, Incorporated• Motorola, Incorporated• MPC Containment Systems Ltd• MPRI, Incorporated• M.R. Pittman Group LLC• MTU DetroitDiesel, Incorporated• Multinational Logistic Services Limited• Murray Air, Incorporated• MW Builders of Texas, Incorporated• Mykotronx, IncorporatedN• Nacre AS• Nakaya Construction LLC• Nan, Incorporated• Nan, Incorporated dba Ocean House Builders• Nana Pacific LLC• National Steel and Shipping Company• Navajo Refining Company• Naval Automation Group• NAVFAC• Navistar Defense LLC• NAVMAR Applied Sciences• NDTS Aviation Services, Incorporated• NES Government Services, Incorporated• New Mexico Technology Group, LLC• Newport News Shipbuilding• New South Construction Company• Niking Corporation• Nineteenth HFC Leasing Corporation• Norfolk Dredging Company• North American Rescue Product, Incorporated• North Island Corporation / Centennial Contractors Enterprises, Incorporated• Northeast Maryland Waste Disposal Authority• Northrop Grumman Company, Electro-Optical Systems• Northrop Grumman Corporation (ALL)• Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems• Northrop Grumman Corporation Electronic-Marine Systems• Northrop Grumman Defense Mission Systems, Incorporated• Northrop Grumman Information Technology• Northrop Grumman Mission Systems• Northrop Grumman Mission Systems / Electromagnetic Systems• Northrop Grumman Newport News• Northrop Grumman PRB Systems• Northrop Grumman Ship Systems• Northrop Grumman Space and Mission Systems Corporation, Mission Systems, Missile Defense Division• Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation• Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation, Electronics Sensors Systems Section• Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation, Integrated Systems Sector• Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation, Integrated Systems Western Region• Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation, Integrated Systems Air Combat Systems• Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation, Navigation Systems Division• Northrop Grumman Technical Services, Incorporated• Northrop Grumman Technical Services Sector• Northrop Grumman XonTech Systems, Incorporated• Northwest Florida Facilities Management, Incorporated• Northwest McGrath JV LLC• Nova Group, Incorporated• Nueces Electric CooperativeO• OAK Group, Incorporated, The• OCCI, Incorporated• Ocean House Builders• Ocean Systems Engineering Corporation• Oceaneering International, Incorporated (ALL)• Oceaneering International, Incorporated, Marine Services Division• Octagon Process, Incorporated• Odebrecht Construction, Incorporated• Odyssey International• O’Gara Hess and Eisenhardt• Okland Construction Company, Incorporated• Oldenburg Group, Incorporated• Olin / Winchester• Omega Aerial Refueling Services, Incorporated• Onyx of Alexandria, Incorporated dba The Onyx Group• Optics 1, Incorporated• Optical Systems Technology, Incorporated• Osborne Construction Company• Oshkosh Corporation (ALL)• Oshkosh Truck Corporation• Oracle Corporation• Orbital Sciences Corporation• Orbital Sciences Corporation, Launch Systems Group• Owens and MinorP• P & S Construction, Incorporated• Pacific Consolidated Industries LLC• Pacific Science Engineering Group• Pacific Ship Repair and Fabrication• Pacific West Builders• PAE Government Services, Incorporated• Paramount Petroleum Corporation• Parsons Infrastructure and Technology Group• Pasha Hawaii Transport Lines LLC• Passport Systems, Incorporated• Patten Energy Enterprises, Incorporated• Pave-Tech, Incorporated• Pearson Engineering Ltd• Pegasus Global, Incorporated• Pendleton Group, Incorporated• Petro Star, Incorporated• Pepco Energy Services, Incorporated• Phelps/Kiewit• Phillips Contracting, Incorporated• Phoenix Air Group• Phoenix Fuel LLC• Photo-Sonics, Incorporated• Piedmont Hawthorne Aviation LLC• Pioneer Adult Rehabilitation Center• Placid Refining Company LLC• Point Blank Body Armor, Incorporated• Polkton Manufacturing Company• Pratt & Whitney, Incorporated• Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne• Pratt and Whitney United Technologies Corporation• Presidential Airways, Incorporated, an Aviation Worldwide Services Company (Blackwater Aviation)• Prexis, Incorporated• Price Waterhouse Coopers LLP• Production Products Manufacturing and Sales Company, Incorporated• Productive Products International• Professional Contract Services Incorporated• Progeny Systems Corporation• Propper International, Incorporated• Protected Vehicles, Incorporated• Public Warehousing Company PSC• Pyramid ServicesQ• QED Systems, Incorporated• QUASAR Federal Systems, Incorporated• Qwest Government Services, IncorporatedR• R.A. Burch Construction Company, Incorporated• Radian, Incorporated• Ranger Aviation Enterprises, Incorporated• Raytheon Company, The (ALL)• Raytheon Company AMDS• Raytheon Company, Electronics Systems• Raytheon Company, Integrated Defense Systems• Raytheon Electronics Systems• Raytheon Electronic Warfare Systems• Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems• Raytheon / Lockheed Martin Javelin• Raytheon Missile Systems• Raytheon, Network Centric Systems• Raytheon RF Components• Raytheon Southeast Asia Systems Company• Raytheon Space and Airborne Systems• Raytheon Systems Company• Raytheon Technical Services Company• Raytheon Technical Services, Incorporated• RC Construction Company, Incorporated• Readiness Management Support LC• Record Steel and Construction, Incorporated• Red Star Enterprises Limited• Refinery Associates of Texas• Reger Group LLC• Reliant Energy Solutions East• Remotec, Incorporated• Research Associates for Defense Conversion, Incorporated• Revenge Advanced Composites LLC• Reyes Construction, Incorporated• Rheinmetall Waffe Munition GmbH dba Niederlassung NICO Trittau• Richard E. Pierson Construction Company, Incorporated• River Trading Company LLC• Robert Orr – SYSCO Food Services• Robertson Aviation LLC• Rockwell Collins, Incorporated (ALL)• Rockwell Collins, Incorporated, Government Systems Division• Rockwell Collins Government Systems, Incorporated• Rockwell Collins Services• Rogers-Quinn Construction, Incorporated• Rolands and Associates, Incorporated• Rolls Royce (ALL)• Rolls Royce Corporation• Rolls Royce Engine Services• Rolls Royce Naval Marine, Incorporated• Rolls Royce plc• Rome Research Corporation• Roselm Industries, Incorporated• Rosemont Aerospace, Incorporated• Rotordynamics-Seal Research• Rheinmetall Waffe Munition GmbH• RQ Construction, Incorporated• RS Information Systems, IncorporatedS• S & K Sales Corporation• S & M & Associates, Incorporated• SAAB Bofors Dynamics AB• SAAB Training, LLC• Sambe Construction Company, Incorporated• Sampson Construction• San Diego State University Foundation• Sarnoff Corporation• Sauer, Incorporated• Sauer, Incorporated, dba Sauer Southeast• S B Ballard Construction Company• Schafer Corporation• Schutt Industries, Incorporated• Science Applications International Corporation• Scientific Applications International Corporation• Scott Alliance, Incorporated• Sea Box, Incorporated• Sealevel Systems, Incorporated• Sealift, Incorporated• SeaPort-e• Select Engineering Services• Select Sensors and Airborne Systems Electro-Optics Limited• Sensors Unlimited, Incorporated• SERCO, Incorporated• Seven Seas Shiphandlers• Seyer Industries, Incorporated• SFA, Incorporated• Shell Chemical Yabucoa, Incorporated• Sidran, Incorporated• Sierra Nevada Corporation• SIGCOM, Incorporated• Signal Systems Corporation• Signal Technology Corporation• Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation• Sikorsky Support Services• Silver Eagle Manufacturing Company• Simula Aerospace (ALL)• Simula Aerospace & Defense Group, Incorporated• Simmonds Precision Products, Incorporated, DBA Goodrich Fuel and Utility Systems• Singh Group, Incorporated dba Baja Pacific• Science Applications International Corporation• Schutt Industries, Incorporated• SFA, Incorporated• Shamrock Foods• Shanska USA Building, Incorporated• Shaw Environmental, Incorporated• Shaw Infrastructure, Incorporated• Shee Atika Languages LLC• Shutt Industries• Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation• Simula Aerospace• Skanska USA Civil Southeast, Incorporated• Sippican/Granite State Manufacturing Submarine Antenna Joint Venture• Slone Associates, Incorporated• SLR Contracting and Service Company, Incorporated• SM Wilson• Small Business Group• Smiths Aerospace LLC, Electronic Systems• Smiths Aerospace Mechanical Systems• Smiths Detection, Incorporated• Snap-On Industrial• SNC Technologies, Incorporated• SNC Telecommunications, LLC• SOC-SMG• Sodexho Management, Incorporated• Soltek Pacific Construction Company• Source for Native American Products• SOPAKCO, Incorporated• Southern Research Institute• Spain AFS• Sparta, Incorporated• Sparton Electronics• Spawglass Contractors, Incorporated• Special T Hosiery Mills, Incorporated• Special Tactical Services LLC• Spectrum Comm, Incorporated• Speegle Construction, Incorporated• Sprung, Incorporated• SRC Tec, Incorporated• Ssangyong USA, Incorporated• Standard Aero, Incorporated• Stanley Associates, Incorporated• Stauder Technologies• Static Energy LLC• Sterling Foods, Ltd• Stewart and Stevenson Tactical Vehicle Systems (ALL)• Stewart and Stevenson Tactical Vehicle Systems LP• Stewart and Stevenson Tactical Vehicle, Division of Armor Holdings• Stronghold Engineering, Incorporated• Structural Associates, Incorporated• Sumaria Systems, Incorporated• SUMMA Technology, Incorporated• Sundt Construction, Incorporated• Superior Graphite Company• SupplyCore, Incorporated• Supreme Foodservice AG• SURVICE Engineering Company• Symetrics Industries• Sys Technologies, Incorporated• Systems Research and Applications Corporation• Sysco Central Florida• Sysco Food Service of Hampton Roads• SYSCO Foods of Seattle• Sytex, IncorporatedT• Taber Construction, Incorporated• Taitec, Incorporated• Talbert Manufacturing• Talley Defense Systems• TASC, Incorporated• Tatilek Support Services, Incorporated• T.B. Penick and Sons, Incorporated• TCI Architects Engineers Contractors, Incorporated• TEAM Construction, LLC• Team Logistics Joint Venture• TEC, Incorporated• Technical Communications Corporation• Techno-Sciences, Incorporated• Technology Service Corporation• Tecolote Research Incorporated• TECOM, Incorporated• Teksouth Corporation• Tel Instrument Electronics Corporation• Telecommunication Systems, Incorporated• Teledyne Benthos• Teledyne Scientific and Imaging• Teledyne Wireless• Telephonics Corporation• Telford Aviation• Tennessee Apparel LLC• Tennier Industries• Terra Mississippi Nitrogen• Terex Corporation• Tesoro Corporation• Tesoro Refining and Marketing Company• Test and Experimentation Services Company• Tetra Tech (ALL)• Tetra Tech EC, Incorporated• Tetra Tech NUS, Incorporated• Textron Marine & Land Systems• Tiber Creek Consulting, Incorporated• Thales Communications, Incorporated• Thales-Raytheon Systems Company LLC• Theodor Willie Intertrade• Thermo Pac LLC• Thomas Computer Solutions LLC• THR Enterprises, Incorporated• Three Phoenix, Incorporated• TJC Engineering, Incorporated• TLD America Corporation• Todd Pacific Shipyards Corporation• TolTest, Incorporated• Tompkins Builders, Incorporated• Trajen Flight Support LP dba Atlantic Division• Trans-TEC• Tri-County International Trucks, Incorporated• Trimble Navigation Limited• Triton Marine Construction Corporation• Triton Services, Incorporated• Triton Services, Incorporated, Electronic Technology Division• Treadwell Corporation• Triple Canopy• Truman Arnold Companies• T Square Logistics Services Corporation• Ttec-Tesoro, Joint Venture• Tuckman-Barbee Construction Company, Incorporated• TUG Technologies Corporation• Tulip Corporation dba PHI• Tullahoma Industries, LLC• Tulsair Beechcraft, Incorporated• Turbo Combustor Technology, Incorporated• TW Metals, Incorporated• Tybrin CorporationU• Ultra Electronics Advanced Tactical System• Undersea Sensor Systems, Incorporated• United Parcel Service (UPS), Incorporated• United Technologies Corporation• United Technologies Corporation, Pratt & Whitney Aircraft Group• United Technologies Corporation, Pratt & Whitney, Military Engines• University of Central Florida• University of Hawaii• University of Southern California• Universal Technology Corporation• Universal Technologies• Urban Associates LP• US Foods International• US Foodservice (ALL)• US Foodservice Lexington• US Ordnance• US Tactical Supply, Incorporated• Utah State University Research Foundation• Utility Contractors, IncorporatedV• Valero Marketing & Supply Company• Valley Apparel LLC• Valley Power Systems, Incorporated• Vane Line Bunkering, Incorporated• Vanguard Contractors• Vasquez Marshall Architects• VBR Joint Venture• Vericor Power Systems, LLC• Veridian Systems Division• Verizon• Vetco Contracting Services LLC• Veterans Enterprises Technology Services LLC• ViaSat• Vinghog AS• Virtexco Corporation• Vision Systems International• VT Griffin Services, Incorporated• VT Halter Marine, IncorporatedW• Walbridge Aldinger Company• Walbridge Construction• Walton Construction Company• WareOnEarth Communications, Incorporated• Washington Harris Group, Incorporated• Watterson / Davis• Watterson Construction Company• Watkins Aircraft Support Products• Watkinson LLC• Watts Constructors LLC• Weeks Marine, Incorporated• Welin Lambie LTD• Wellco Enterprises• Wellstone Apparel, LLC• Western Marine Construction, Incorporated• Weston Solutions, Incorporated• WF Magann Corporation• WG Yates & Sons Construction Company• Wolf Coach, Incorporated• Wolverine and CADDO Joint Venture• Wolverine World Wide, Incorporated• Wood Brothers, Incorporated• Woodward Governor Company• Woolrich, Incorporated• World Fuels America• World Fuel Services America, Incorporated• World Fuel Services Corporation• Wornick Company, The• Whitesell-Green, Incorporated• Whiting Turner Contracting Compan• W. M. Jordan Company, Incorporated• Wyle Laboratories, IncorporatedX• Xceedium, Incorporated• Xerox Corporation• Xilinx, IncorporatedY• Yellowstone Electric Company• York International Corporation• Y Hata and Company, LimitedZ• Z Corporation• Zeitgeist Expression, Incorporated• Ziva Corporation#• 3001, Incorporated

Average JaneJune 4th, 2009 at 7:31 pm

I live in a metro area in the Midwest. A couple of years ago a study stated that a single person would have to make a wage of $17 an hour just to afford to live here, never mind buying a home.I too think this wage destruction may just be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. We will have 100 million uninsured if wages go back to 1990 levels and prices stay at 2008 levels. No one will be able to afford to keep a roof over their head or food in the cupboard or automobile or house payments.You keep on giving us the stats, MM CA. You’re doing a great service. Thank you.

Average JaneJune 4th, 2009 at 7:35 pm

So instead of free wheat we have credit cards.We’ve come a long way, baby.Professor Roubini has it right: we do not have a credit crisis; we have a debt crisis.

MichelleJune 4th, 2009 at 7:35 pm

You’re from Cali and you’re reading the Idaho Fartsman? Amazing, I barely read it!

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 7:39 pm

You must not understand the dynamics and fundamentals of economics… to attain 400k a month job growth next month you would have to stop 600k in loss- net equals 1 million new jobs… Credit card lines are being cut from 5 trillion to 2.5 trillion as we speak… you should let the rest of us 307 million americans into that bubble you reside in…

MichelleJune 4th, 2009 at 7:45 pm

June 12th is the date set for GM’s CDS auction, but we may see a pullback anytime from Wednesday next week until then. But it will be just my luck that nothing will happen. Syngora CDS auction was last Weds., market drops 173 pts. JLSA bank CDS auction today, the market dropped 3 digits yesterday, then the market reverses and we only lose 65 pts.The point I’ve always been trying to make is that I’ve been watching these auctions since last August, Fannie and Freddie were huge, and the market tanked. Follow these by Lehman, WaMu, 3 Icelandic banks, and many corporate auction in February, and they these stock market plunges are so heavily correlated you’d have to be as dense as a box of rocks not to see it.In addition, you will also notice that oil and pm sell off, and the dollar rises during these auctions. These are cash auctions and the need for U.S. dollars is great as they are generally priced in dollars. You hear pundits as to why oil went down when the dollar went up and the analysts scratch their heads and can’t make heads or tales of it. Make no mistake, it’s a lack of liquidity, which is why the Fed created the Supplemental Liquidity Program, administered by the great and powerful Goldman Sachs.As I don’t see any catalysts that will, in the near future besides next week, drive the markets down, I believe we’re in a bull market. Fundamentals don’t exist and never have, it’s all been a huge smoke screen.

Guest martinJune 4th, 2009 at 8:28 pm

http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/45a/058.html…We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In this unfolding conundrum of life and history there is such a thing as being too late. Procrastination is still the thief of time. Life often leaves us standing bare, naked and dejected with a lost opportunity. The “tide in the affairs of men” does not remain at the flood; it ebbs. We may cry out deperately for time to pause in her passage, but time is deaf to every plea and rushes on. Over the bleached bones and jumbled residue of numerous civilizations are written the pathetic words: “Too late.” There is an invisible book of life that faithfully records our vigilance or our neglect. “The moving finger writes, and having writ moves on…” We still have a choice today; nonviolent coexistence or violent co-annihilation.We must move past indecision to action. We must find new ways to speak for peace in Vietnam and justice throughout the developing world — a world that borders on our doors. If we do not act we shall surely be dragged down the long dark and shameful corridors of time reserved for those who possess power without compassion, might without morality, and strength without sight.Now let us begin. Now let us rededicate ourselves to the long and bitter — but beautiful — struggle for a new world. This is the callling of the sons of God, and our brothers wait eagerly for our response. Shall we say the odds are too great? Shall we tell them the struggle is too hard? Will our message be that the forces of American life militate against their arrival as full men, and we send our deepest regrets? Or will there be another message, of longing, of hope, of solidarity with their yearnings, of commitment to their cause, whatever the cost? The choice is ours, and though we might prefer it otherwise we must choose in this crucial moment of human history. …

Guest martinJune 4th, 2009 at 8:28 pm

http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/45a/058.html…We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In this unfolding conundrum of life and history there is such a thing as being too late. Procrastination is still the thief of time. Life often leaves us standing bare, naked and dejected with a lost opportunity. The “tide in the affairs of men” does not remain at the flood; it ebbs. We may cry out deperately for time to pause in her passage, but time is deaf to every plea and rushes on. Over the bleached bones and jumbled residue of numerous civilizations are written the pathetic words: “Too late.” There is an invisible book of life that faithfully records our vigilance or our neglect. “The moving finger writes, and having writ moves on…” We still have a choice today; nonviolent coexistence or violent co-annihilation.We must move past indecision to action. We must find new ways to speak for peace in Vietnam and justice throughout the developing world — a world that borders on our doors. If we do not act we shall surely be dragged down the long dark and shameful corridors of time reserved for those who possess power without compassion, might without morality, and strength without sight.Now let us begin. Now let us rededicate ourselves to the long and bitter — but beautiful — struggle for a new world. This is the callling of the sons of God, and our brothers wait eagerly for our response. Shall we say the odds are too great? Shall we tell them the struggle is too hard? Will our message be that the forces of American life militate against their arrival as full men, and we send our deepest regrets? Or will there be another message, of longing, of hope, of solidarity with their yearnings, of commitment to their cause, whatever the cost? The choice is ours, and though we might prefer it otherwise we must choose in this crucial moment of human history. …

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 9:21 pm

Geithner tells China its dollar assets are safe”Chinese assets are very safe,” Geithner said in response to a question after a speech at Peking University, where he studied Chinese as a student in the 1980s.His answer drew loud laughter from his student audience, reflecting skepticism in China about the wisdom of a developing country accumulating a vast stockpile of foreign reserves instead of spending the money to raise living standards at home.http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSPEK14475620090601

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 9:25 pm

When I bought my house in 1999 interest rates were about 6% to 7% and the loan broker mentioned the three times your salary rule as a guide. Old fashioned, I know. He also told me not to overimprove my house with options (I was buying new construction). The loan broker was a young guy, but apparently out of step with the fashion of the loan industry.

MichelleJune 4th, 2009 at 9:44 pm

Challenging but extremely rewarding and my family is all that matters in the thick of it.We are very fortunate to have a place to exchange thoughts and ideas and I feel a level of comfort being in the company of friends that have the same concerns and fears of the future as I do. I hope and pray the best for us all.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 10:26 pm

What does fair share mean? As I understand it, almost half of Americans towards the lower end of the income scale pay no taxes whatsover. Yet they reap all the benefits and get to cast a vote for the politician that promises them even more of a free ride. How is this fair?Give your head a shake!

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 10:46 pm

Obama is a one term president, just like Jimmy Carter.The man is great in front of a teleprompter but that’s about it. No substance whatsoever. Unfortunately, the damage he is doing may be irreparable.He’s selling America down the river for the sake of his socialist ideas.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 11:06 pm

Don’t take it hard Michelle. You have very worthwhile posts. There is sexism on this blog. Anyone been around long enough to remember Sharzadh?Ungendered guest

MM CAJune 4th, 2009 at 11:14 pm

If you notice I ask for help on the NO JOBS issue and i did write some solutions recently… The problem is so complex and so deep and the PTB keep changing the fixes almost monthly it is impossible to hit a homwe run at this. part of solving any problem is fully understanding it, which i dont pretend to at this time. so if there are approx 20 million or more out of work presently where should they go to work (at decent and fair wage based on skills)?Throw some solutions out or do you not understnad the problems in the simplest terms?

MM CAJune 4th, 2009 at 11:17 pm

here is one from me from 3 weeks ago…go ahead and pick it apart, then lets hear some of your ideasNO JOBS, NO JOBS, NO JOBS- so whats the fix? here is one:Ask yourself how much have we injected into saving, fixing , bailing out Banks, Wall Street, Auto’s, Fannie, Freddie, China? by most estimates it is TRILLIONS… is it 4 trillion, 6 trillion, 11 trillion – probaby something in those numbers. Now what have they all done with that money? Most of the receipients of the “Trillions” have themselves made massive job cuts and layoffs. That alone tells me they dont feel they will need the workers moving forward to service the economy because they also see no JOB Creation.So back to the fix:There are probably 50 consistent posters on this site and another 50 or so who all contribute. Everyone writes well, thinks intelligently, comes across as caring for the country and its people, seems smart, seem like they have business backrounds… another words, Good people. So take those 100, Make Roubini the CEO, start a company and ask Obama for 1 Trillion in hard cash to run a buisiness that actaully creates jobs. here is what 1 trillion can create:My Plan Annual Cost Employees Salary Bene$1,000,000,000,000 $70,000 14,285714 $50,000 $20,000$2,000,000,000,000 $70,000 28,571429 $50,000 $20,000My Plan Annual Cost Employees Salary Bene$1,000,000,000,000 $84,000 11,904762 $60,000 $24,000$2,000,000,000,000 $84,000 23,809524 $60,000 $24,000Now we have just employeed over 14 million at 50K annual salaries, with full health, 20 paid vacations days, 401k/pension contributions – another full benefits. Cost 1 Trillion. I threw in scenario’s for what 2 trillion would do and also if everyone made 60K annually. Most fortune 500′s average about 30-40% in fringe costs. samller companies less. so i took the higest rate of 40%. make sure everyone is covered and not on the cheap. So everyone is already poking holes… What about overhead costs, facility costs etc…it all depends on what these folks do. right now they are employed doing nothing… so there are no fixed costs other than small administration costs for payroll and benfits.How about a Green energy company prodcuing solar, wind, alternative products for commericial and residential consumers throughout the country. It includes installing and maintaing these products… I would declare a national solar energy mission — solar energy including waves, wind, photovoltaics, solar thermal and passive solar architecture. Open up the whole frontier and make that the priority as we convert our country to renewables. Get Boone Pikens to run it and have Roubini or(Braintrust)manage the $$$$ Rememebr everyone makes the same salary for now.Now figure that income taxes on this company and all the workers could effectivley return 150 Billion – 250 billion back to the gov’t annually. But the first three years of this effort, those taxes that would be paid have to be used for the overheads required to run a company this big.. for the company buy the materials needed. Revenue generation/prices for the products and serivces would be made afforadable to all.to sum it up- give me, give us 1-2 trillion and we could create anyhwere from 11 million to 28 million jobs depeneding on the amount received…But no instead, we have chosen to go down the roads of portecting and funneling Trillions the PTB that could care less about JOBS and JOB creation.The above is just to point out how the money should be used and sure anyone could poke holes in it, but its rough and high level. But i am convinced i could find 100 people form this site that could make soemthing similar work.

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 11:43 pm

For all flesh is like grass,and all its glory like the flower of grass.The grass withers,and the flower falls… -I PETER IDo you know whose tomb these words and music grace?

GuestJune 4th, 2009 at 11:46 pm

Answer: A very intelligent and far-sighted man. The father of the Federal Reserve and predictor of the 1929 crash, known before Oct. 1929 as Gloomy Gus: Paul Warburg.

economicminorJune 4th, 2009 at 11:50 pm

I still want to know how all this money is going to get into circulation?We have declining retail sales. We have declining housing market. We have hotels at less than 50% occupancy. We have more and more people unemployed… We even have lowering energy use and fuel use…So IF all the money being borrowed or printed is doing more than filling a huge black hole and actually causes commodities to rise in a speculative frenzy, the consumer (70% of the economy) will crash and burn, leaving what for an economy?I know the common sense for inflation from monetary expansion but it appears to me that deflation is still the 800# gorilla in the room. What if all this monetary expansion is just going to replace fantasy money on balance sheets and there really isn’t any left over to cause rising prices?AND exactly HOW is this money going to get in to circulation? Not thru the traditional means of lending.. Not this time. Not with 18% unemployed and Alt A, Option ARMs on the verge of collapsing housing further, the auto industry on the rocks, auto suppliers near bankruptcy too, retail sales declining precipitously, malls in default, with more devastation exposed every day… This is not a scenario for inflation or growth…Although the bond market seems to see something doesn’t it.

see.clayJune 4th, 2009 at 11:55 pm

china reaps more reqards from investing in our garbage than they do expenses when exporting cheap junk – simple equation

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 12:00 am

lighten up francis, we like to kill people. I work in that industry and we are hiring, even though we are over staffed – called cost plus and it pays the bills!

MichelleJune 5th, 2009 at 2:41 am

Ya think??? I see it all the time with my daughters’ soccer games, fewer dads show up to watch and cheer on the girls. Glance over to the boys’ fields, tons of dads. Let this be a message to all you guilty dads out there, girls have value too, and your lack of interest in their activities is shamefully noticeable.

MarkJune 5th, 2009 at 3:08 am

Come on Chignos, let’s debate.You don’t like me, fine. I could care less. It’s the message, not the messenger.Guestwink, no, I don’t listen to Limbaugh. I don’t like hate-mongers.This all started because someone injected a STUPID attack on Obama implying that he’s not a US citizen. I COULD CARE LESS! THE SYSTEM PICKED HIM, DEAL WITH IT: go elsewhere and campaign to have him removed!Mark

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 3:12 am

U.S. could create a new 1 Trillion dollar banknote. Could U.S. inflate all its debt away if it gave each citizen 1 Trillion dollars?Or would this just increase the debt with as many trillions as they print of those notes?(On another hand after the exercise the value of the USD would probably be such that a Trillion might not be enough for a cup of coffee at Starbucks).

MarkJune 5th, 2009 at 3:25 am

I know that fiat money is/always has been virtual. My point is that at what point does it become so virtual, not grounded in anything, that people walk away from it?The folly of empires has been their refusal to see that they are not eternal.Mark

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 3:34 am

Let’s resurface this issue that Mark has repeatedly brought up on this board: since we exist in a closed system, it is not possible for the economy to continually keep “growing”.If this is true (and I believe it is), and knowing how much the U.S. government lie in their official statements (employment statistics, etc), the question is whether a capitalistic system in reality even works. The need for all this lying actually implies that it does not.Another issue is whether we are close to some sort of a saturation point where further growth is not possible. If this is the case it would be good to know whether there are any financial instruments where the return is not a function of growth.Otherwise perhaps best to just invest in a landlot and start growing vegetables on it.

MarkJune 5th, 2009 at 3:42 am

His point is/was that farming will be more valuable. Food, Shelter and Water. It was Pickens, I believe, who is on the water track (buying up rights all over in Texas, I believe). We did the shelter thing already…And the other point was that stock brokers value is pretty much worn out.The Lamborghini remark was just a metaphor (meant as a good sound bite).Those who grow food will never be cash rich.Mark

MarkJune 5th, 2009 at 4:04 am

You cannot hope to solve a problem without properly knowing its makeup. “MM CA” has consistently helped to expose the realities to our problems.Mark

AnonymousJune 5th, 2009 at 4:47 am

So looks like “western control of oil” was a likely major factor for the Iraq war as well. I had wanted to believe there were some ‘higher’ reasons than that, how naive of me.Obama Admits to US Role in Iran Coup

While far from the focus of his historic Cairo speech today, President Barack Obama’s comments on America’s history with Iran have caused something of a stir, as he became the first sitting US president to publicly admit to America’s role in the 1953 coup in Iran.“In the middle of the Cold War, the United States played a role in the overthrow of a democratically elected Iranian government,” Obama admitted, referring to the CIA’s role in the coup against Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddeq after he nationalized the Iranian oil industry.The US and British governments supported a coup d’etat in 1953 to ensure Western control over Iranian oil production. Iran remained under the control of the Shahist government until the 1979 Iranian Revolution, in which the current government ceased power.In the 30 years since the revolution, the US and Iran have had a hostile relationship. In the 1980s this led to the US and Britain supporting the Iraqi government of Saddam Hussein as a regional opponent to Iran. The US provided Iraq with considerable support during the eight year long Iran-Iraq War.

(full story at:http://news.antiwar.com/2009/06/04/obama-admits-to-us-role-in-iran-coup/)

VideoJune 5th, 2009 at 4:49 am

USA does not have money for either social security or unemployment benefits, only weapons

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 5:14 am

From above, this wise and passionate post…The solution to the bond vigilantes in to restore progressive taxation at all levels so that the megarichcan pull their weight. We all know the story of Warren Buffett and his secretary. She pays more taxes than he does proportionately. The marginal rates on the rich must go up. The capital gains rate and the dividendgains rate must go up. There must be a Tobin tax typestructure. IS THIS GOING TO HAPPEN? NO. The rich own the government. SO WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN? There will be a MORE REGRESSIVE VALUE ADDED TAX INSTITUTEDTO OPPRESS THE MIDDLE CLASS OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT.You can kiss health reform goodbye!Since we can’t raise taxes on the rich and we just GOTROYALLY LOOTED BY THE BANKS, WE HAVE NO MORE MONEY.The solution will be to dismantle all our economic stabilizers of social programs and run an AUSTERITYBUDGET for a country that is heavily unemployed and indebted. I HAVE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE!!!This is the model criticized by Joseph Stiglitz as the IMF creditor collection model for underdeveloped countries. The bond vigilantes can be easily appeasedby raising taxes on the wealthy to get our country on course. Marginal rates were very high on the wealthy through times of trouble in our country. So what is the critique of this policy. The rich will take their money elsewhere in the world to avoid taxation. The wealthy are participating in this PRESENT COMMODITIESTEMPORARY BUBBLE. There must be coordinated taxation treaties to tax speculative market transactions to raise capital to defray all the BANK BAILOUTS. WHY IS NOBODY TALKING ABOUT THE SHARE SACRIFICE OF THE GLOBAL WEALTHY TO RESTORE THE BUDGETS OF THE COUNTRIESTHAT HAVE BAILED OUT THE BANKERS?We will be sold a bill of goods to save the integrity of the budget balance process by sacrifice by the lower classes.Hide reply Reply to this comment By Guest on 2009-06-04 08:33:39…Drew this 100% brain-dead response:What does fair share mean? As I understand it, almost half of Americans towards the lower end of the income scale pay no taxes whatsover. Yet they reap all the benefits and get to cast a vote for the politician that promises them even more of a free ride. How is this fair?Give your head a shake!Reply to this comment By Guest on 2009-06-04 22:26:44…and this kind of idiotic garbage no-think response goes right to the heart of everything that is wrong, and shows why those who know how to fix this nightmare are prevented from doing so.The people who CANNOT or WILL NOT THINK LOGICALLY, who are UTTER STRANGERS TO REASON, who HAVE ZERO CRITICAL THINKING SKILLS, and who are additionally ETHICAL INFANTS – are the blockade.I know no one CHOOSES to be this stupid, but these mental midgets ARE the problem we can’t get past.How seriously impaired is the brain that looks at those residing in the house of have-not and proclaims that THEY are the ones reaping all of society’s benefits? How seriously retarded is the brain that suggests only rich people should have the right to vote? How seriously dangerous is the person with the brain that sees people WORKING AS HARD OR HARDER THAN ANYBODY ELSE, BUT FOR LOWEST WAGES, and then calls that person’s hard work ‘getting a free ride’???????WRITE THIS DOWN, BINKY: THE PEOPLE REAPING ALL THE BENEFITS of humans being societal-living creatures, the people reaping 99% of all the benefits it takes everyone’s work to produce – ARE THE ONES WITH ALL THE MONEY, HONEY. THEY ARE CALLED THE LEISURE CLASS FOR A REASON – BECAUSE THEY ARE THE ONES WHO UNNATURALLY REAP WITHOUT LABORING, RECEIVING THEIR WEALTH THROUGH MYRIAD LEGAL THEFTS granted them by a society gone insane, a society that adores being hard on street and petty crime while it shamelessly acquiesces to the extreme, extreme MURDERING-MILLIONS EVERY YEAR injustice of heaping giga-wealthpower on billionaire banksters and corporado CEO’s and their corrupt interlocking boards of directors and the weapons manufacturers.You billionaire wannabees who LOVE the tyrants and their money-tyranny and have nothing but hate for the working people who built this country: YOU WALKING SUICIDES MAKE ME SICK with your inane defenses of an economic, material wealth inequity factor that RESIDES IN THE BILLIONS.WEAR YOUR SLAVECHAINS AS YOU LIKE, BUT GET THE HELL OUT OF THE WAY OF THOSE WHO CAN SEE REALITY AND ARE UNAFRAID TO DO JUSTICE!

Jason BJune 5th, 2009 at 5:40 am

If trillions of dollars of handouts to the banks, in addition to regulatory forbareance gets us only some debatable green shoots, thats bad.The fundamentals have not changed. Subprime may have peaked, but Alt-A, Jumbo and Prime are still ahead. Also Commercial due to retail failures. Include consumer loans and student loans since there are no jobs. Gas is going back up, adding to the financial presure. This will put more holes in bank finances. This time the FED and Treasury are out of ammunition. Turbo Timmy is begging the chinese to continue to invest in dollars, while Bernackie publically frets about interest rates. Bond vigilanties are eyeing our deficit. They are not going to be able to bail out the financials from the next round. Check out this graph:Credit Suisse Arm Reset GraphNote how the ‘green shoots’ coincide with the dip at about the 25 month mark. The Fed and Treasury do not have the resource left to cope with the second hump of the graph.(pardon the spelling, but its early)

FEDupJune 5th, 2009 at 6:46 am

Of course! And we’re trying to do it again but through more subtle means. This was 99% of the reason we overthrew Iraq and are continuing into Afgahnistan/Pakistan. Control another country’s resources, then their financial system and it’s over. Imagine what we would do if another country tried to take control over our resources.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 7:02 am

We are busy at the job of spending our families, and our safety, happiness, liberty, peace, security, and our chance to have a future – on our money.We are completely blind, completely suffering from not knowing we are blind.We are hands down the funniest channel on Martain tee vee.

FEDupJune 5th, 2009 at 7:02 am

Yes and the delusion has been fostered, fed and kept alive by CREDIT, money we don’t have, which makes us feel not as poor, which allows us to deny reality and not comprehend the extreme difference in incomes between the rich and the rest of us. The masses feel helpless to address this disparity and keep following the mantra of “sacrifice now for my children’s future” not realizing that their children will be caught in the same paradigm. The quintessential question is how do you wake people up when those who voted for McCain or Obama (90% of voters)believe they are awake.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 7:20 am

Excuse me guest but this giga-wealth you are talking about was made by the hard working Americans that you cite. It is there effort, investment and savings that made America what it was. The reality is that the highest income earners in the country pay most of the taxes. THe tp 10% of income earners pay 90% of all taxes. I don’t call that fair.I agree that there some (many?) that hide their money away and pay little if any taxes. I also agree that the money paid to senior corporate executives is rude: totally out of sync with their contribution to their company’s wealth. But there are a lot of high income earning people that file and pay their taxes. The numbers are public, so do your research before you go off on these riduculous left wing rants. I suggest a move to China and learn about a seriously repressed society.

GirafJune 5th, 2009 at 8:03 am

@MM CA on 2009-06-04 23:14:36I offer you the courtesy of an apology.However, you made a point about understanding our current problems. You have to go back about 35 years to find their real roots. Back in the mid seventies, western governments learned that they could buy their countries out of recession, simply by running deficits and printing money. No real thought was given to how these monies would be paid back.The U.S., Canada, U.K., etc., began this wild ride of living beyond our means. The public learned that if governments could borrow and spend, so could they. Incomes grew, GDP grew but so did debt. Fast forward to the 21st century. It’s everybodies right to own a house, or several for that matter. Everybody had a right to get on this gravy train and participate in the greed of the bull market in housing. More spending and significantly more debt. Interest rates at close to zero at the short end (ARMs etc) brought in more players, many who wouldn’t qualify for mortgages under “normal” circumstances.THen the Fed starts to tighten. ARMs become a problem. Real estate prices stop going up. Many start to fail to meet their payments. Jingle mail begins. Housing prices start to decline. Interest rates continue move higher. More delinquencies. More jingle mail, etc., etc., etc. The downward spiral is set.Just as the west used increased housing wealth and equity market wealth to lever and consume, when wealth evaporates so does consumption and the economic contraction begins in earnest. Declining GDP, accelerating unemployment. Lower house prices, lower stock prices, a spiral to the downside.With the drop in housing prices, security for mortgages began to disappear and the mortgage markets start to fail. Holders of mortgage investments began to lose some or all their money. Banks were part of this. The trillions that have been poured into the banking system has been intended to stop the melt down. Much as I disagree with the way it was actually handled, it was necessary. Without it, all personal wealth in the banking system would have been destroyed. Economic and social chaos would have ensued.Your idea about “the Government” providing $2 trillion for job creation programs for businesses perhaps led by our dear leader NR misses the point. Governments provide nothing. All they do is take your and my taxes (and the future taxes of our children, grandchildren, great grand children) and recycle them to suit their own particular agenda. (Which is buying the votes of the recipients of the largesse). And they do it tremendously inefficiently, with so much waste and pork. Governments don’t create jobs. Individuals do. Entrepreneurs who risk all to build a business, to try to become rich (which appears to be a sin to some on this site). (By the way, if solar were at all viable, enterprising young men and women would have been all over it. It remains uneconomic with other fuels currently priced where they are. Throwing $2 trillion at it would be just like pouring another $2 trillion down the drain).Unfortunately, I don’t have the solutions, apart from believing that we have to downsize government and let citizens keep more of their hard earned money. If one pays less taxes, one either spends it, boosting economic growth (as long as it’s not on another Japanese TV), saves it, which will then be lent to someone to put to good economic use, or pay off debt, which has the same outcome as saving. What we do have to do is adjust to a lower standard of living for probably 15 to 20 years as we work off the excesses of the past. People have to learn to live within their means and cut up their plastic and stay away from the bank loan officer. It will only be after and extended period of saving and debt reduction that we have a hope of sustainable economic growth. Alas Obama and his lighweights think more of the same, borrow and spend, is the solution to the crisis. In reality, it is only making matters much, much worse.

kilgoresJune 5th, 2009 at 8:10 am

Good point about China. Might also have mentioned that China has its share of the ultra-wealthy and those who aspire to be ultra-wealthy, too. Greed is a human condition.SWK

HubbsJune 5th, 2009 at 8:11 am

A very subtle but enlightening thought.Marc Faber and Jim Rodgers (ok, I know some of you think they are a little bit…off) have pretty much said the same thing. I don’t know if all of our technology, our innovation, our resources will be enough to offset the demands of increased population clamoring for a higher standard (read energy and resource consumption, waste production)of living.A fractional banking system works ok in a “growing” economy, and inflation, like automobile exhaust, can be accomodated…up to a point. Economic theory always based on the growth model.Time to rethink economic models?

see.clayJune 5th, 2009 at 8:27 am

I would argue that the best thing to do (and I hate the thought) is just toss your money into a bunch of mutual funds and forget about it – let the fat cats do what they will and keep getting fatter while we tread water, they make the rules and profit from them. The aristocracy has been doing it forever, they use different tools – religion, laws, disease and now the media (how else could you explain something as ridiculous as twitter that for some reason is talked about incessantly on pretty much anything on the boob tube).Welcome back bubble!

see.clayJune 5th, 2009 at 8:31 am

Interest rates will be 6% by next week at this pace – should be a boon for the housing market

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 8:33 am

Dear Friend:Our country is going through a crisis that will require justice and shared sacrifice. Their is little ulitily in calling serious discussion a “left wing rant” and suggesting a move to China to the the kind Guest who just objected to dismissive comments without substance. The top 10% of income earners have had it very good since 1980. Society spends much to protect their property, which has grown to be a much higher percentage than before 1980. The marginal tax rates after the Great Depression were designed to foster a middle class and to be progressive enough to maintain a Civil Society. We are all in the same boat, and the loss to your neighbor could but for the grace of God be your own. The present situation in this country has accelarated the destruction of the middle class and polarized society. This polarization will not yield happy results. This is not a homogenous society that will tolerate great pain without crime. If unemployment keeps on going up, and people are desperate, there will be an elevation of crime that nobody has seen before. This is a society with an excess of firearms and desperate people. It is in the best interest of civility that we find solutions that provide work for decent people.If we dismiss the lower 90% as fungible units of potential labor, we are making a mistake. Anyone of us could be pulled out of our expensive car and have our throats slit, because a desperate person wants our wallet. It is in the best interest of all in society to maintain civil order. The Post-War Europeans were wise enough to institute economic stabilizers to maintain civility in extreme times of hardship. I don’t consider their actions to be other than ENLIGHTENED SELF-INTEREST. Please do not be intellectuallyrude by setting up a dichotomy, where those that want change should migrate to China. I suspect that you know better. The kind guest who posted my prior comment was just trying to point out that we need serious discussion. You can be guaranteed that I will give serious thought and consideration to whatever response this generates. I respect the opinion of all others and keep an open mind. I don’t know enough and I am willing to be persuaded by rational discussion. Your friend!

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 8:42 am

what could possibly be unfair about those getting 90% of the wealth and benefits paying 90% of the taxes??????????and why do you say ‘rude’ when the accurate word is UNJUSTIFIABLE? You are, as i said, being perfectly SOFT ON INJUSTICE.and even more mindless no-think: china is more repressed so we should only compare with china’s level of repression, NOT WITH WHAT IS RIGHT, or SMART, or JUST, or POSSIBLE, or SANE – or even with what is REALITY.THIS is our insane human reality: We have hyper-extreme injustice. After thousands of years of uncontrolled, unlimited ‘rich get richer’, ie, rich get paid more and more and more per unit of work, pay now ranges from $1 to $1,000,000,000 a fortnight’s work. Instead of equal pay for equal work, we have from $1 to $1,000,000,000 for equal work.Why can’t people see that THIS is the biggest thing centimating our happiness and safety? When will people get the elementary sense not to shovel most of their earnings, power, and freedom to a few????

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 8:47 am

Excellent reply. I said give the 2 trillion to private people. Also I dont believe for one second that most companies and the Corprate CEO types have had the Workers best interests at heart over the past 20-30 years. how much profit is too much? we have seen destruction in retiremnt plans, health plans, wages working hard and being rewarded fairly. Gov’t is only one part of the problem. They allowed the private capitialsts to run amuck for too long all so they could get thier couple of hundred thousdand dollars each for thier campaigns. we have injected almost 12 trillion of yours and our money to “entrapanuers” who have abused everyday americans for far too long and have proven they also cannot mange things. Greed and the power of money are pervasive forces that has a stanglehold on the private corporate people in charge. We agree there is no easy answer, but the current system is broke and most maericans are suffering because of it. they ar eback to the same games of creating excotic instruments to make more money that you and i do not understand and the bottom line is the bottom line and if profits ar enot going up you and I get whacked. you have a lot to contribute so join in and share…. my point was why cound’nt some of the 12 trillion really been used to fix the NO JOBS situation we are in. it still would have left 10 trillion and more for the idiots in charge.

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 8:56 am

No JOBS! Interesting on the avg hourly wage. U6 is well over 20 Million nowhttp://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmThe number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 millionin May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the startof the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons hasrisen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percent-Average hourly earnings, | | | | | |total private ………| $18.34| $18.46| $18.50| p$18.52| p$18.54| p$0.02Average weekly earnings, | | | | | |total private ………| 612.55| 613.60| 612.35| p614.86| p613.67| p-1.19age points. (See table A-1.)

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 8:56 am

No JOBS! Interesting on the avg hourly wage. U6 is well over 20 Million nowhttp://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmThe number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 millionin May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the startof the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons hasrisen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percent-Average hourly earnings, | | | | | |total private ………| $18.34| $18.46| $18.50| p$18.52| p$18.54| p$0.02Average weekly earnings, | | | | | |total private ………| 612.55| 613.60| 612.35| p614.86| p613.67| p-1.19age points. (See table A-1.)

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 8:58 am

You have to get biggest-picture thinking: Entrepreneurs can’t create jobs. Only DEMAND creates jobs. And low or no wages = low/no demand. Good wages – FAIR WAGES – EQUAL WAGES FOR EQUAL SACRIFICE = robust economy all COULD benefit from. You CANNOT separate production and consumption. Demand belongs to the people. The benefits of having division of labor belong to all the people because all share in the community project that is division of labor.stop funnelling all the productivity gains to the fraction few!10% unequal pay is unjust. 100% unequal pay is very unjust. And we have 100,000,000,000% unequal pay!

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 9:00 am

Future Headline ” Job loss slows dramatically, we only lost 500,000 jobs this month. The unemployment rate is 24% which is a lucky number”.This opium reporting cannot be called news! Democracydepends on journalism and integrity. How can we work for change when the gatekeepers of discussion, which are our media outlets are hypnotists.

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 9:01 am

how are they going to deal with this and the next bubble of Morgtage loses coming… In my opinion the Govt and the FED have no more money, Even Obama said as much on PBS and numnuts Bernanke said as much the other day…. whatch what happens in Britan the next few weeks- they are a country that ran out of money.Bank Profits From Accounting Rules Masking Looming Loan LossesJune 5 (Bloomberg) — Big banks in the U.S. say they’re on the mend. The five largest were profitable in the first quarter, rebounding from record losses for the industry in the fourth quarter. Share prices have jumped, with the KBW Bank Index doubling since March 6.Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, after “stress testing” 19 banks on their ability to withstand a worsening economy, declared in early May that Americans can be confident in the banks’ stability and resilience. Wells Fargo & Co. and Morgan Stanley were among banks raising $43 billion in new capital since then through share sales.“With our capital and assets, stressed as they have been, we can go back to focusing all our attention on managing our business and restoring value,” Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said after Geithner’s examinations were completed.The revival may be short-lived. Analysts who have examined the quarterly profits and government tests say that accounting rule changes and rosy assumptions are making the institutions look healthier than they are.The government probably wants to win time for the banks, keeping them alive as they struggle to earn their way out of the mess, says economist Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University in New York. The danger is that weak banks will remain reluctant to lend, hobbling President Barack Obama’s efforts to pull the economy out of recession.‘Bogus’ ProfitCitigroup’s $1.6 billion in first-quarter profit would vanish if accounting were more stringent, says Martin Weiss of Weiss Research Inc. in Jupiter, Florida. “The big banks’ profits were totally bogus,” says Weiss, whose 38-year-old firm rates financial companies. “The new accounting rules, the stress tests: They’re all part of a major effort to put lipstick on a pig.”Further deterioration of loans will eventually force banks to recognize losses that their bookkeeping lets them ignore for now, says David Sherman, an accounting professor at Northeastern University in Boston. Janet Tavakoli, president of Tavakoli Structured Finance Inc. in Chicago, says the government stress scenarios underestimate how bad the economy may get.The accounting rule changes that matter most for the banks came on April 2, when the Financial Accounting Standards Board gave companies greater latitude in how they establish the fair value of assets. Lawmakers, including Representative Paul Kanjorski, a member of the House Financial Services Committee, had complained that existing mark-to-market standards worsened the financial crisis.Debt ValuationAlong with that change, FASB also let companies recognize losses on the value of some debt securities on their balance sheets without counting the writedowns against earnings. If banks plan to hold the debt until maturity, they can avoid hurting the bottom line.At Citigroup, the recipient of $346 billion in fresh capital and asset guarantees from the government, about 25 percent of the quarterly net income came thanks to the debt securities rule change, the bank said.Another $2.7 billion before taxes came from an accounting rule that lets a company record income when the value of its own debt falls. That reflects the possibility a company could buy back bonds at a discount, generating a profit. In reality, when a bank can’t fund such a transaction, the gain is an accounting quirk, Weiss says.Citigroup also increased its loan loss reserves more slowly in the first quarter, adding $10 billion compared with $12 billion in the fourth quarter, even as more loans were going bad. Provisions for loan losses cut profits, so adding more to this reserve could have wiped out the quarterly earnings.Wells FargoWithout those accounting benefits, Citigroup would probably have posted a net loss of $2.5 billion in the quarter, Weiss estimates. In the five previous quarters, Citigroup lost more than $37 billion.Wells Fargo also took advantage of the change in the mark- to-market rules. The new standards let Wells Fargo boost its capital $2.8 billion by reassessing the value of some $40 billion of bonds, the bank said in May. And the bank augmented net income by $334 million because of the effect of the rule on the value of debts held to maturity.Wells Fargo spokeswoman Julia Tunis Bernard declined to comment, as did Citigroup’s Jon Diat.The higher valuations Wells Fargo put on its securities probably won’t last, as defaults increase on home mortgages, credit cards and other consumer and corporate lending, Northeastern’s Sherman says.Fed’s Optimism“These changes will help the banks hide their losses or push them off to the future,” says Sherman, a former Securities and Exchange Commission researcher.The Federal Reserve, which designed the stress tests, used a 21 percent to 28 percent loss rate for subprime mortgages as a worst-case assumption. Already, almost 40 percent of such loans are 30 days or more overdue, according to Tavakoli, who is the author of three primers on structured debt. Defaults might reach 55 percent, she predicts.At the same time, the assumptions on how much banks can earn to offset their losses are inflated, partly because of the same accounting gimmicks employed in first-quarter profit reports, Weiss says.“There’s a chance that it might work,” Columbia’s Stiglitz says of the government’s attempt to boost confidence. “If it does, then they’ll look like the brilliant general. But all these efforts also bank on the economy recovering and housing prices not falling too much further. Those are not safe assumptions.”Indeed, while the government and accounting rule makers try to help the banks look their best, they may make the U.S. economy worse. As long as lenders are stuck with bad loans, they can’t provide new money to consumers or corporations to fuel a potential recovery. The banks may look pretty, but they’ll be zombies until they clean up their books.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 9:02 am

I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree. The equality you seek doesn’t exist and never will. We are after all a higher level animal, that when pressured reverts to animal instincts. Humans are competitive, they want to do better for themselves and their families. Some are ill equipped, for whatever reason. We can’t all be the winners, whether it be at work or on the sports field.We all make choices. It is ridiculous what a nurse makes, versus what a young trader or investment banker makes. Or for that matter a basketball player, football player or hockey player. The nurse could have chosen to follow a business career but didn’t. THe surgeon, who has trained for years and years, could have chosen to go to business school instead. Just because a line of work is more successful than another in terms of monetary reward is no reason for the nurse or the surgeon to be critical. They could have chosen that route but didn’t. I think it’s crazy what baseball players get paid but I can’t do what they do. I can’t throw a ball at 90+ miles per hour successfully, consistently at a very small target. I don’t say it’s not fair that I don’t have that talent. That’s the way it is.All this ranting about fraudsters and banksters is nonsense. Many participated in the get rich quick scheme that was the early to mid 2000s housing markets. Wall Street facilitated it, because that is the role of capital markets. What about the people buying the homes who had no chance of serving the debt in anything other than the ideal circumstances. Lets talk about the real estate agents. What was their involvement? What about the appraisers? What was their role. The buyers may have been ignorant but I don’t believe that is a defense in law. I’m sorry to sound elitist but while they knew nothing of the mortgage product that they’d committed to, I’m pretty sure they knew what happened on the latest Simpsons or South Park show. Everybody shares some responsibility for this mess.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 9:04 am

The Right to work is unalienable. Work is the first and essential condition of life; humans MUST work to feed their stomachs, or they die. Society is bound to at least do no harm – there is no point in having society if it hurts instead of helping us – and work is vital to health, self-esteem, etc.No society has a right to withhold work from anybody.

GirafJune 5th, 2009 at 9:07 am

But tell me where “justice” exists, anywhere in the world? What is an example of the system we should adopt? It’s not going to happen.

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 9:12 am

I am convinced that Green energy can help solve “some” of the problems we face in terms of creating jobs. Demand is here by the people for lower cost energy, we need to start producing it. it never rains in californa was some song i beleive. where i live the sun is out 300 days a year with no clouds. put solar on every roof as one example. the wind blows constantly in other areas, wind generators for those folks. But its hard to fight the deep pockets of Big Oil- they want no part of this alternative vision.

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 9:15 am

to futhur expand on Corporate greed and why its not all jsut our govt that creates the problems. I live number 10 every day!Read the whole articel here: http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjune09/depression06-09.html“Had the economy been fundamentally sound in 1929 the effect of the great stock market crash might have been small. But business in 1929 was not sound; on the contrary it was exceedingly fragile. It was vulnerable to the kind of blow it received from Wall Street.”You mean like the evaporation of $12 trillion wealth we’ve just experienced in the U.S.?But the present is far more fragile and vulnerable than the U.S. economy of 1929, for the following reasons. In 1955 Galbraith could not possibly have foreseen or anticipated these current conditions:1. A Federal government which since the “Reagan Revolution” of 1981 (e.g. don’t tax and spend, just borrow and spend) has borrowed during so-called good times on a scale once reserved for rare Keynesian stimulus to combat serious recession. Thus we find ourselves at unprecedented levels of debt (comparable in terms of GDP to the entire cost of World War II) and our current Depression has barely begun.2. A corrupt-to-the-core corporate structure riddled with bogus accounting, reliance on financial trickery for profits and misdirected/worthless regulatory oversight.3. A banking sector of such debauchery and fraud that the excesses of the 1920s are reduced to the pranks of slighty-naughty choirboys and girls.4. A Federal system of entitlements (Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security) which has grown far faster than the underlying economy for decades and now threatens the very solvency of the government itself, so stupendous are the future obligations.5. A global military hegemony which costs more than all the other militarys and intelligence operations of the entire world put together. The U.S. military consumes more oil than the nation of Sweden (9 million residents).6. An industrial, transportation and energy infrastructure that, rather than being rebuilt during the past 26 years of debt-based “prosperity,” has crumbled in a long decline. Rather than invest in electrical power grids and energy-efficient transport systems, the U.S. squandered the trillions of borrowed dollars on toys, gewgaws, electronics made elsewhere, malls and commercial towers with only transient value and millions of bloated, inefficient poorly constructed homes no one needed or could afford: “assets” which were not productive at all, “assets” which are now capital traps on a scale heretofore unimaginable7. A paucity of U.S. savings (and thus of domestic capital) with only one historical parallel: the depths of the Great Depression when unemployment was 25%.8. A huge reliance on financial leverage, debt, borrowing and trickery for corporate profits; the U.S. exports soybeans, increasingly worthless dollars and “financial innovations” which are now exploding in economies from Ireland to India with the destructive force of superweapons. In exchange for this dubious paper, we have accepted actual tangible goods from the rest of the world.They are now slowly waking up to the fact they’ve been conned on a scale few can grasp.9. Globalization has reworked the global supply chain in an astonishingly brief period of time. As a result, the arbitrage of currencies (foreign exchange a.k.a. forex), wages, governance (less is more profitable) and environmental regulations (zero is the most profitable) have all placed advanced post-industrial economies like the U.S. at great structural disadvantages.10. The U.S. claims to be competitive but much of this competitiveness is highly selective and thus illusory. Everything in the U.S.–labor, goods, buildings and taxes–is high-cost, overregulated (except for finance, banking and governance) and vulnerable to unpredictable lawsuits and officially sanctioned looting. Other than recent immigrants, non-U.S. employers find the workforce is often surly, unappreciative, narcissistic, entitlement-obsessed, unhealthy, poorly educated, unmotivated and more inclined to get-rich-quick schemes than actual enterprise or productivity.The middle management labors under impossible demands to enrich stockholders next quarter and heavy turnover insures few stay in any job long enough to learn it effectively. Team cooperation is a doublespeak fraud imposed by “facilitators,” creating a phony work environment where employees and managers alike pretend to care. This bogus environment breeds a looting, game-the-system mentality in which everyone is grabbing for all they can before retirement, restructuring, reassignment, resignation or getting fired.A “quarterly profits are God” mentality reduces the workforce (even the good workers) to units of input which are pared back or hired without regard to morale or loyalty. This managerial and cultural pathology makes a mockery of worker loyalty and breeds the very qualities of distrust and “I got mine” attitude which undermines both productivity and workplace happiness.11. Last but certainly not least, the U.S. economy is highly depedent on cheap, abundant fossil fuels–the very fuels which are in the global depletion phase, happy stories about unlimited natural gas and tar sands to the contrary.For all these reasons, we can anticipate the Depression currently unfolding will be deeper, longer and more destructive than the Great Depression.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 9:17 am

Let’s recount the chain of events which partly parallel the Great Depression and partly diverge in meaningfully more destructive ways from that previous era:1. The postwar income convergence (i.e the rise of the great middle class, the reduction of poverty and the relative reduction of the Plutocracy’s share of national income) reverses in the early 1970s as the “true prosperity” of the postwar era ends and is replaced by income flowing increasingly to the top as stagflation, globalization and the decline of dollar gut the purchasing power of the middle class.2. The rising productivity of the 50s and 60s slips to the flatline through the 70s and early 80s, only picking up again as computer software and hardware revolutionize the back office, sales, manufacturing, just-in-time shipping/production, etc.3. Concurrent with this gradual return to productivity is the rise of finance as the key profit-center of corporate America. As income skews ever more heavily to the top 1%/5%, then capital (productive assets) become ever more heavily concentrated in the hands of the financial Plutocracy. The top 1% now owns some 2/3 of the nation’s entire productive wealth.4. As profits rise (from rising productivity) then the profits flow not to wages (which remain flat to down 1975-2009 for all but the top 10% professional class) but to those who own the capital.5. As the middle class experiences a decline in their income and purchasing power (for reasons cited above: declining dollar, rising income disparity, and wages falling due to global wage arbitrage) then they turn more and more to borrowing and ever greater debt to fund what they have been brainwashed by the media to believe is “the American dream” of imported luxury goods, bloated homes, vacuous cruises, etc.The only other mechanism available to the middle class to increase household income is for Mom/Aunt/Grandmom to enter the workforce, which she does in the tens of millions, with sociological consequences which are still unfolding.6. This advert/media-driven desire to borrow to fund the “good life” is hugely profitable to the money-center banks, which expand rapidly into mortgage securization, derivatives and consumer credit to the point that they come to dominate corporate profits.7. The financial Plutocracy, observing that actually producing goods is not very profitable unless you can fix prices as per ADM (Archer Daniels Midlands) or gain government subsidies and tax giveaways (oil lease depreciation, etc.) sinks its capital into the FIRE economy (finance, insurance and real estate), eschewing real-world investments as comparatively unprofitable.Though rarely noted, this is a longstanding trait of capitalism stretching back to 1400-era Venice. When trade became less profitable than mainland farmimg, the Venetian Elite stopped funding trading and bought farms on the mainland. As a side effect, Venice ceased to be a military and trading power. But the Elite remained immensely wealthy.8. As the tech bubble expands, middle-class investors see the Plutocracy (those with enough capital to qualify as angel investors and vulture, oops, I mean venture capital) reaping huge gains, and they enter the dot-com stock bubble buildup with a vengeance.9. In a happy accident, the Soviet Empire collapses just as productivity begins its computer-fueled rise in the U.S. In a so-called Unipolar World in which U.S. military, political and financial influence is unrivaled, non-U.S. investors seek the relative safety and high returns (based on appreciation of the dollar) of U.S. financial instruments.10. The dot-com bubble implodes in a speculative meltdown (dot-bomb), and retail investors (a.k.a. the middle class 401K investors) are devastated. The ephemeral wealth they once possessed, however briefly, fuels their speculative desire to get into the next get-rich-quick game, which just so happens to be “something everyone understands:” real estate and housing.11. Having exhausted the dot-com play, Elite capital is seeking a new high-profit home. The miracles of derivatives (CDOs, credit default swaps, etc.) and securitized debt (mortgage tranches, etc.) open up vast new opportunities for leverage, off-balance sheet shenanigans and outright fraud/debauchery of credit. As chip wafer plants disappear from Silicon Valley (too dirty, too costly, etc.) then they’re replaced with paper: mortgage-backed securities.12. Sniffing gold in them thar exurban hills, the under-capitalized and over-indebted U.S. working class and middle class reach for the chalice of easy-money gold: leveraged real estate.13. With the Federal financial regulatory agencies in a Republican/Democrat-enforced somnambulance, the coast is clear for brigands, shysters, fraudsters, con artists, liars, cheats, and assorted riff-raff in the realtor, mortgage and appraisal businesses, who all feed the ravenous maw of the money-center banks’ apparently limitless appetite for real estate assets to securitize and leverage in exotic and highly profitable ways.14. For a wonderful five years circa 2001-2006, the game is afoot and no-down-payment Jill and $100 million bonus Jack are immensely enriched. Meanwhile, the underlying real economy is becoming ever more imbalanced and ever more fragile as real production and real productivity plummet as everyone rushes to the speculative riches of exurban McMansions and malls.15. This last best speculative leveraged bubble pops, gutting a Wall Street which had grown utterly dependent on leverage, debt, gamed/fraudulent accounting and bubbles for its rising profits.16. Doubly devastated by the implosion of housing and their stock investments (mostly in retirement funds), the middle class faces the terrible consequences of its 26-year stupor of ever-rising debt and leverage. Alas, the Emperor’s clothes are revealed as remarkably transparent.17. Just as in the Great Depression, to its great surprise, the Elite has also suffered catastrophic losses and declines in capital and income.18. Having borrowed and squandered trillions of dollars since 1981 on unaffordable entitlements, military misadventures and assorted worthless bridges-to-nowhere pork spending, the Federal government (The Fed and the Treasury) finds that its ability to borrow its way out of its current debt hole somewhat annoyingly limited. The rest of the world has finally caught on to the con, and Chinese university students are openly mocking Treasury Secretary Geithner’s Orwellian claim of “we support a strong dollar.” The miracle is that he was not pelted with tomatoes and tarred and feathered for making such absurd statements.19. With the global media concentrated in a scant few corporate hands (less than 10), this pulling away of the curtain is deleted/excised from media coverage in a ruthless campaign of pure “green shoots” propaganda.20. As the wheels fall off the U.S. economy and the bubbles cannot be re-inflated, fruitless attempts at holding back the tide with incantations (stop, tide, I am Obama/Geithner/Bernanke!) and loopy sand castles (the bottom is in, buy now! Green shoots are sprouting everywhere except in the real economy!) abound. Unresponsive to propaganda, the real world grinds down into a global Depression without visible end.Is this “edgy” enough to be worthy? I hope so.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 9:17 am

The pool of wealth is finite, which means overpay has nowhere to come from but from underpay – so give me the justification for paying one person less for equal sacrifice so you can pay another more for the same sacrifice.Never mind – you CAN’T give me the justification because none exists. And that is the point…the crucial reality point that the entire human species is trying sadly, painfully, and unsuccessfully to avoid coming to grips with.

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 9:29 am

Only in California… and now the whole country… the problem with todays mainstream news, both print and tv is that they will not publish views like this. is it any wondwer why newspapers are going broke, TV ad revenue is tanking and your daily rag has seen 75% reduction in pages. People are finally getting a clue there are alternative sources for the truth these days. The Internet got Obama elected, it may als prove to be his undoing…….California: Harbinger of Fiscal DoomWhat the Golden State’s bleak future means for AmericaBrian Doherty | June 3, 2009 http://www.reason.com/news/show/133828.htmlCalifornia is famously considered a bellwether state for social and political trends, from the positive (hot rod and surf culture, the human potential movement, tax revolts, digital culture) to the regrettable (murderous cults, carbon reduction mandates). With that in mind, a simple—yet terribly difficult for our political class—contemplation of the state’s current cash crisis is both instructive and scary for the future of our nation as a whole.California now confronts a roughly $24 billion deficit. Recent attempts to get voters to approve various fiscal shenanigans and cost-shifts got smacked down at the polls. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is now making a big show of proposing heavy spending cuts that will, we are told by the state’s journalistic and political mavens, destroy the state, beggar its sick and young, and leave just enough cash to forcibly keep people out of various state parks, though not to “operate” them.Of course, nowhere among the “serious options” under consideration is legalizing pot and other controlled substances, which would likely give the state an extra billion dollars a year in tax revenue. That simple act of political sanity would also save the state the $43,000 a year per inmate now spent incarcerating drug criminals, of whom a fresh nearly 19,000 were added in 2008 alone.Finding places to cut costs without reducing the state to post-apocalyptic squalor shouldn’t be such a big deal, of course. As explained in California’s political newspaper Capital Weekly last week:[N]ew revenue estimates released by the Department of Finance this week place the state’s general fund revenues at $85.9 billion—nearly $4 billion higher than they were just five years ago.Even with the depleted funds caused by plunging home prices and a global economic slowdown, Gov. Schwarzenegger’s budget is still larger than his first budget in the 2004-05 budget year.But in that first budget year, state spending was at $79.8 billion. Over the next two years, state spending jumped by more than 21 percent, to more than $101.4 billion in the 2006-07 budget year.Current revenues, then, would allow for more spending than five years ago, a time in which state parks were open, schools functioned (though, as always, not very well), and the streets were not knee-deep with the neglected sick and poor.As budget analyst Fred Silva told Capitol Weekly, solving California’s budget woes is not as simple as turning back the budget clock to 2004, largely because of locked-in—and crippling—pension and health care spending obligations. Certain cuts in health care, for example, would lead to the loss of federal revenue. And unions and state employees have no intention of making the state’s solvency any easier.Still, education spending has, according to state Sen. George Runner (R-Antelope Valley), writing at the California Policy Report news web site, “increased by $15 billion over the last decade even though there were 74,000 fewer students over that same period.” State contributions to the government pension fund have, as Reason Foundation Policy Analyst Adam Summers notes, “jumped from $321 million in 2000-01 to $7.3 billion last year.” It costs California nearly twice as much to house a prisoner per year as it costs Florida. Contemplating those facts, it’s obvious that the basic survival of the accoutrements of civilized living are not at stake in California’s fiscal crisis.Indeed, living within the current income of the state should not be impossible, nor should it mark the end of civilization. Adjusted for inflation, California’s fiscal year 1991 revenue of $38 billion is still $25 billion less than their current revenue. As Summers explains, “If California had simply limited its spending increases to the 4.38 percent average increase in the state’s consumer price index and population growth each year since FY 1990-91, the state would be sitting on a $15 billion surplus right now.”The same holds for the United States as a whole: Federal revenues for 2007 ($2.6 trillion) are sufficient to have spent twice as much as federal outlays in 1975, adjusted for inflation, with no deficit at all. While life in these here United States was hellish on many levels in 1975, not least the fashions and food, even those with a much bigger appetite for government than I might agree that a government twice as big as what we enjoyed/suffered that year should be able to manage its necessary functions. (And no, there is no convincing reason that in a growing economy the government’s cash grab as a percentage of GDP should remain stable.)When contemplating California’s fiscal present and the U.S.’s fiscal future, it’s not quite right to say that where California is now, the U.S. as a whole will follow. The U.S. is already in a deep hole, much deeper than California’s, and has been for some time. Even President Barack Obama knows it. He told C-SPAN recently, with wonderfully disarming frankness, “we are out of money now.”The U.S., unlike the state of California, when faced with a dearth of cash, can just make more, which is in essence Obama’s plan—for a while, at least. As in his most famous movie role as the Terminator, Schwarzenegger is metaphorically a visitor from a dangerous and unpleasant future that awaits the rest of the United States. The Golden State is absolutely a political bellwether now in the sense that the crisis-induced fiscal seriousness Schwarzenegger is at least pretending to attempt will be essential to the U.S. in the near future—and should be seen as essential this very second.But while California can hold out hope that the federal government might bail it out of its troubles, the U.S. government, alas, has no higher power to which it can direct its own appeals. The buck stops there. The only problem, as Obama himself claims to understand, is they are all out of bucks.

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 9:31 am

Medical bills underlie 60 percent of U.S. bankrupts: studyMedical bills cause more bankruptcies than mortgages dohttp://www.reuters.com/article/email/idUSTRE5530Y020090604?

GirafJune 5th, 2009 at 9:36 am

Lets not confuse entrepreneurs with the thieving senior corporate executives. Entrepreneurs own their businesses, put up their own capital, borrow more and bear all the risks. The CEO rarely has any of his/her own money at risk. The odds are greatly stacked in their favour. Unfortunately, the incestuousness of corporate boards sustains the environment, each scratching each others back. Shareholders have abrogated their responsibility: they are the owners who should be kicking out these boards.Another poster corrected me by saying demand creates jobs not people. He is right. But it is people seeing opportunity that gets the ball rolling and it takes the peoples’ courage to see it through. But if you have an idea for an unaffordable product, it can never be successful.I’ve never believed in “government” (read tax payer sponsored) job creation programs. Most lead to scams and pork. Better that governments not steal our money to fund their own particular agendas. Rather let us spend it ourselves, on things we want, on VIABLE goods and services.If the government hadn’t supported the banks, your bank deposit, my bank deposit, everyone’s bank deposit would have evaporated and we’d be in the midst of a depression not just a very bad recession. The FDIC has nowhere near the resources to contain the catastrophe that would have taken place. Unfortunately, there were no serious strings attached to the bank bailouts. I would have thought that the executive tier of the Citi’s, BoA’s, etc., should have been replaced. No severance, cancellation of stock options and other goodies. Canned, out the door for gross incompetance. But who do you replace them with? For how long can the ships go rudderless? And the thought of Tiny Tim at the overall helm makes me shudder.Thanks for the exchange. I used to participate actively on this site 6-9 months ago but got tired of all the ranting and extreme negativity. That and all the conspiracy stuff.

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 9:37 am

Is anyone in charge these days! Numbers never lie! when you count your money you either have more or less… and as one person above said you need money to eat, at least in this country!Freddie: Mortgage Rates Touch New 2009 HighJune 4, 2009 – 3:09 pmFrom Bloomberg: U.S. Mortgage Rates Jump to Highest Since DecemberFixed U.S. mortgage rates jumped to the highest level this year, signaling the Federal Reserve’s plan to lower borrowing costs has stalled.The average 30-year rate rose to 5.29 from 4.91 percent a week earlier, Freddie Mac, the McLean, Virginia-based mortgage buyer, said today in a statement. The last time the rate was higher was Dec. 11, when it was 5.47 percent. The average 15- year rate rose to 4.79 percent from 4.53 percent.“That’s quite a jump,” said Donald Rissmiller, chief economist at New York-based Strategas Research Partners. “The more rates go up, the more we need home prices to go down to equalize consumers’ payments. It’s those payments that have brought about a level of stability in housing unit sales.”Kudos to Bloomberg for the highly relevant quote they used to interpret the headline data. As we’ve shown mathematically, monthly payments are key. If interest rates rise while incomes stay flat, the principal component of your mortgage payment has to come down to reflect the rise in rates.Maybe that sentence sounds complicated. It isn’t.The monthly payment on a standard mortgage has two components: interest and principal. Your income determines the monthly payment you can afford. The prevailing interest rate on mortgages determines how much of that payment goes toward interest. The remainder pays down principal.If interest rates go up, house prices have to fall in order to keep monthly payments in line with what buyers can afford.Higher interest rates would imperil the “recovery” because house prices would fall further as a result. As house prices fall, more mortgages fall into delinquency, blowing a bigger hole in bank balance sheets.*As you can see in the first chart, mortgage rates are closely tied to Treasury rates.Click charts to enlarge in new window.This makes sense since Treasurys have lower credit risk than mortgages. The government, after all, has a printing press to pay its debts. Homeowners don’t. Government bonds will always yield less than mortgages because, if they didn’t, there wouldn’t be a market for mortgages in the first place: banks would buy higher-yielding, lower-risk Treasurys instead of making mortgages.Towards the end of May, Treasury rates spiked. In the first week of June, mortgage rates followed suit.Assuming we’ve seen the worst of the banking crisis, we’ve probably also seen the end of panic buying of Treasurys. That would mean the Fed will have an awfully hard time keeping rates low, especially as the Obama administration continues its borrowing binge.On the other hand, if the crisis kicks up again, the Fed could get an assist from panicky investors who feel they’ve no choice but to buy government paper.Will the panic return soon? Possibly. Will it return eventually? Most definitely.At the end of the day, our monetary system is a Ponzi scheme. Everything is copacetic so long as its expanding. But it can’t expand forever, no matter how hard the Fed tries.*”Recovery” is in quotes b/c it’s artificial: A function of the Fed’s ability to keep rates low so that asset prices stay artificially inflated.

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 9:40 am

Seems they are starting to eat thier own…we may not even get the chance…lolBernanke’s Monkey See Monkey Don’t PolicyBernanke’s knows deficits are a problem and unsustainable as well. He is even warning Congress about them. Bernanke also knows that the Fed is going to have to unwind the garbage on its balance sheet.Bernanke sees the problems, yet he is still willing to add to those problems. This is clearly a case of Monkey See Monkey Don’t.Let’s investigate the situation starting with Treasuries Rise as Bernanke Warns on Deficits, Fed Buys Debt.Treasuries rose for a second day after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said large budget deficits threaten financial stability and the central bank purchased $7.5 billion of U.S. government securities.Yields on 10-year notes declined as the Fed chief said deficit concerns are already influencing the prices of long-term Treasuries after yields climbed to the highest since November last week. The central bank plans to purchase U.S. debt again tomorrow as part of its $300 billion, six-month effort to cap lending rates.The U.S. can’t continue to borrow at the current rate to finance the budget deficit, Bernanke said in testimony to the House Budget Committee today.“Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer term, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth,” Bernanke said. “Maintaining the confidence of the financial markets requires that we, as a nation, begin planning now for the restoration of fiscal balance.”Bill Gross, founder of Pacific Investment Management Co., said Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s plan to bring the budget back into balance won’t be successful as consumers shrink spending and the U.S. growth rate slows. The budget deficit will be narrowed to “roughly” 3 percent of GDP from a projected 12.9 percent this year, Geithner said June 1.‘Balanced Rabbit’“I think he’ll fail at pulling a balanced rabbit out of a hat,” Gross said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today from Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, California. “They are talking about — once the economy in the U.S. renormalizes –the move back toward balance or much less of a deficit. I suspect that will be hard to do.”Gross advised holders of U.S. dollars to diversify before central banks and sovereign wealth funds ultimately do the same amid concern about surging deficits.Dearth of RabbitsI suspect Gross is talking his book and the dollar may be poised for a rally as noted in Speculative Bets Against The Dollar Highest Since July 15 2008.However, I happen to agree with the idea that there is a dearth of rabbits available to pull out of hats.It’s your problem, Bernanke tells CongressThe question of the day is: Who is going to shut off the spigot? Clearly it’s not the Fed, at least not Bernanke, as noted above. Indeed, Bernanke tells Congress, It’s your problem.Congress and the people who elected it must decide how much government they want to afford, Bernanke said. Stating the obvious, he went on to say: “Crucially, whatever size of government is chosen, tax rates must ultimately be set at a level sufficient to achieve an appropriate balance of spending and revenues in the long run.”Unfortunately, Congress and the people have seldom gotten the balance right. We want the benefits of a large government without paying the costs, just as we wanted a loftier personal living standard than our income could support.For its part, the Fed also faces having to make some tough choices. The U.S. central bank has lowered interest rates substantially and has expanded its balance sheet by about $1.2 trillion, effectively flooding the banking system with cash to keep the economy from collapse.Everyone knows this and accepts it in principle — but in practice, it will come down to knowing when to let go. It will require a deft hand and a dollop of good luck to keep the economy from crashing back to the ground or, conversely, from soaring like Icarus and burning up with inflation.Sadly, the Fed’s near-impossible task is child’s play compared with the problem faced by the Obama administration, the Congress and the people.Tough Decisions For The FedInquiring minds are reading An Economy at Risk: The Tough Decisions Ahead by Thomas Hoenig, President, Federal Reserve bank of Kansas City. Here are a few quotes.”In the long run we are all dead but our children will be left to pick up the tab”.”In our efforts to fix the oversight process for our financial system, we should not misdiagnose the patient. Unfortunately, I’m afraid we are witnessing some regulatory malpractice now. The emphasis on reform at the moment is to change the structure of the regulatory system rather than address the fundamental weakness of that system.”"Capitalism is a process of success, failure and renewal, and for it to work properly, institutions must be allowed to fail, no matter their size or political influence.”"Over the past two decades, The US has created for itself a set of economic imbalances that, in my judgment, have significantly increased uncertainty and placed economic growth at risk for future generations of Americans”.”Starting from where we are today, it is clear that interest rates must rise.”"I suspect there will be considerable pressure on the central bank to ‘help out’ in easing this adjustment process by keeping interest rates low for an extended period. This happens because people often confuse the establishment of low interest rates – and therefore the creation of money – with the creation of wealth”.Fed’s Hoenig Is A Monkey See Monkey Don’t Policy AdvocateThe first quote above is Hoenig quoting Keynes, and one of the few things Keynes said that makes much sense. Most of the rest seem to come from the Austrian economic handbook.I especially like “In our efforts to fix the oversight process for our financial system, we should not misdiagnose the patient. Unfortunately, I’m afraid we are witnessing some regulatory malpractice now. The emphasis on reform at the moment is to change the structure of the regulatory system rather than address the fundamental weakness of that system.”Yes indeed, it is the Fed and Fractional Reserve Lending that are the “fundamental weakness of that system” and no amount of regulation can possibly fix that problem. Please see Case Against the Fed and Fractional Reserve Lending for details.Yet, for all Hoenig’s talk, where is the action? Where are the dissenting votes? More so than Bernanke, Hoenig seems to understand at least a few basic principles including the extremely important distinction between rising prices with rising wealth.However, actions (or lack of them) speak louder than words. I hope Hoenig can prove me wrong, but as of right now Hoenig appears to be a willing participant of Bernanke’s Monkey See Monkey Don’t Policy.No Rabbits For Obama Or Congress EitherThe magic hats are empty. There are no rabbits to be found.Monkeys are large and in charge, everywhere one looks. Meanwhile, rabbits are hiding in Wonderland with Bernanke chasing them down the zero interest rate hole. Unfortunately, even the monkeys who see problems and know what to do about them are unwilling to make the tough choices necessary.It’s a sad case of Monkey See Monkey Don’t.Mike “Mish” Shedlockhttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

GirafJune 5th, 2009 at 9:47 am

If it was priced effectively, it would have already taken off. Other energy alternatives are cheaper. I don’t have the benefit of your hours of sunshine where I live. I’ve considered solar and wind but can’t make the numbers work. It’s about a 20 year payback, by which time I will probably have passed on! The only way it becomes feasible is if oil quickly goes to $200-$300 barrel. However the overall economic impact of such an event would be devasting on the N. American economies.

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 9:48 am

Hmmmm……. Even though all we have to work with is the numbers, how much truth is there in the numbers… If Buffet is right about about unsold housing just another lie by the PTB. i ahve been reaseraching various reports about ther ebeing over 20 /million unoccuipied housing units in the US, but yet “offical” data says there not that many.this crisis occuring in our country is like one big puzzle with millions of pieces and i suppose there is no one that can put it all together anymore although Roubini is one of the best at doing so.I do look for good news too, but quite franky there jsut is not much, or when there is, its just not significant in terms of helping these days.There’s evidence, though, that Buffett is awake to America’s problems. He says there will be no quick rebound in consumer spending, the economy has “fallen off a cliff,” and we are now “fighting a war.” Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s real- estate arm just estimated that the backlog of unsold houses is double the official figures.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=aUgpE2pRx5eU

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 9:58 am

Big OIL money is stopping it from happening and being priced properly. thier are combo wind and soalr units. the point is mass deployment of these technolgies accross our country and others is possible. take a look of the NYC building tops from an aerail view, all thsoe building could be outfitted with various solar and wind units. a massive undertaking on a national scope yes, lots of jobs yes, lots of work yes, lots of product needed yes…it’s one idea… but ask where will jobs come from then? Health care – possibly?I cant see it coming from more technology- we already maillions of workers glued to thier spread sheets and email for 8 hours a day and that by itslef produces nothing…

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 10:13 am

Here we go again… We are not even one year removed from paying $4.50 avg a gallon for gas last summer (i did pay 5.05 last summer here in Calif.)which accelerated the economic collapse/problems of fall 2008 and here we go again. I paid $3.10 this morning in Livermore California. now if we paid 4.50 last year for gas when oil was at 130 or so (high of 147) for a few months, how is it we are now paying 3.00 when it has been 50-65 for 6 months. so the wheels are in motion for us to again be paying for 4.50 on avg, but oil will obly be at 90-100 when that happnes. thats about a 35% fleece job on all of us in 1 year. I wondwer what happens if oil goes back to 150, will gas then cost 8.00 a gallon in the US? and if gas keeps going higher it is safe to assume that mortgage defaults will go higher, job lossed will mount, people will become more desparate to put food on thier table, more bills will go unpaid…No one seems to get it- we cannot continue our old ways as a country….The unemployment numbers are scary, but not as scary as expected, sending the Dow rocketing up 100 points, with oil hot on its heels breaking above $70.Will oil hold on for the rest of the day? Investors are obviously buying into the green shoots theory. And every time they turn around there’s a new report saying that oil will cost more in December than it does today.Today’s comes courtesy of Blackrock’s Daniel Rice who calls for $90 barrels of oil and a doubling of oil stocks, and a tripling of coal stocks in the next three years.http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-soars-over-70-2009-6

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 10:14 am

Giraf, Justice in pay DOESN’T exist yet because we haven’t created/legisated it yet, but the lessons of history are screaming at us that THAT is the whole problem. “It’s not going to happen” is fatalism pure and simple and fatalism is a self-fulfilling prophesy. Good Lord, Folks, SNAILS have more dignity than fatalists! Snails are willing to shoulder the burdens of life and get on with living life. People certainly CAN create pay justice – it’s SIMPLE and EASY to create pay justice!Look, once upon a time the idea to have insurance did not exist, the idea of car did not exist, either. Then these good ideas came along in a brain or two and today these ideas are ubiquitous. Good ideas spread, things change. But ONLY when ideas change does culture change, ONLY when what’s in people’s heads has changed will government change. Government is not in charge and the rich aren’t either: IT IS WHAT’S IN THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE’S HEADS THAT IS DRIVING EVERYTHING THAT’S GOING ON. And that’s why I am aghast to see people indicating on this board that they are entirely willing to accept the coming austerity measures that will FURTHER punish the working people while leaving the billionaires’ other-earned over-fortunes intact!We have worshipped for so long at the altar of that bitch goddess named “successful accumulation of unlimited personal fortunes” that we have forgotten what we are working for! We have forgotten to even be on our own side against freedom defined as the freedom for a few to exercise a murderous money-tyranny over the whole of hardworking humanity!I have explained the system we should adopt before – how we simply marry capitalism to justice. Once a majority has clarity of thought, we do these 2 things:1. Institute a 1% increase per month in the global money supply, going equally, directly, freely, electronically to every living human being, children included, one account per person. The inflation effect will reduce overpays, the money effect will reduce underpays, and it does so without the cost of assessing fortunes. This method is not perfectly efficient in reducing overpay, but it is very easy and quick to reduce underpay. A 1% per month inflation will make a 1% imbalance, which will adjust, as the underpaid spend more, generating more supply. It is gentle enough to avoid any economic social shocks, and works because the inflation effect reduces overfortunes more than the equal share increases them, while it reduces underfortunes LESS than the equal share increases them. The weakness in this is that the overpaid can inflation-proof their fortunes to some extent, especially if the idea is implemented nationally not globally. This approach is easy and quick to set up, it immediately relieves underpay stress and pressures and violence at the bottom. It is the lowest possible, most indirect interference with the overpaid. A regular inflation is very much less inconvenient than an irregular one. The fact is, governments and banks are ALREADY increasing the money supply – only at present they are giving the money increase to the banks to suck more money off people through loans. Inflation devalues everyone’s money. It is a sneaky tax, forcing people to borrow, and in effect making them pay interest to buy back their own money.2. Make inheritance public instead of private. This will make the overpay shower gently down on humanity over three generations. It takes no self-earnings from living persons, and it reverses the perpetual concentration of wealth and political power in fewer and fewer hands. It counters effectively the natural tendency of money to concentrate unjustly, violently. Yes, making inheritance public instead of private means (almost) a 100% inheritance tax. We are preventing inequality of fortunes from growing to infinity by shovelling overfortunes into underfortunes. We know money automatically, unjustly concentrates endlessly, so any sensible species will introduce a counter to that. The simplest way is having every human being have one account (which governments will be happy to open since it means money coming into the country) into which the estates of deceased persons over US$1 million are distributed equally, electronically, directly, immediately, automatically. Private heirs can share the first US$1 million, (if we choose not to completely eradicate free gratis money). Parents would have trusteeship of children’s accounts till some suitable age, say 10 or 12. (This will give parents good reason to teach economic sense before the date children take over responsibility for their own funds!) This method is low-impact, yet totally effective. It doesn’t take away overfortunes from living persons, yet it will move humanity from extreme injustice and violence to near perfect pay justice and non-violence in just three generations – the time it takes for all the overfortunes to die.Again, these 2 steps do not propose interfering with any of the thefts in human economic systems at present, except by preventing these thefts from accumulating endlessly. In brief, it does this by either 1. Distributing a 1% increase of money supply per month equally to every human, or 2. Distributing deceased estates over US$1 million equally among every human, or 3. Both. (Or, by any other system/method that has greater advantages in low bureaucracy, low social upheaval factor, etc, than these – though I know of no others that have no downside and would certainly love to hear of any that anyone else has heard or thought of.)The very first step is getting people to even confess the utterly obvious fact that extreme overpay/underpay EXISTS and that it IS theft even if legal, IS injustice, that it does violate principles of fairpay, that principles of pay justice DO exist, that MYRIAD legal thefts exist. A problem is that people judge the idea with the ideas they have now. The whole point is changing the incorrect ideas people have now – therefore the ideas people have now cannot judge the idea of fairpay – of equal pay for equal sacrifice, of no paying for non-work things like gifts from nature. They have to consider the idea from scratch, from the ground up, from pure cold hard unbiased sense alone – not from the ideas that this idea is challenging.

GirafJune 5th, 2009 at 10:18 am

Good piece MMIf you think back to when the Dow started to rally in March, it was primarily based on Citi’s Pandit saying that the bank had returned to profitability, which was absolute nonsense. But the sheep bought it and when Wells Fargo said the same, the sheep bought some more. As the article you posted cites, the profit is all smoke and mirrors accounting hocus pocus. What it doesn’t point out is that yield spreads between bank bonds and Treasuries have tightened considerably in the last three months and that banks will HAVE TO RECORD LOSSES BASED ON THIS IMPROVEMENT. (To explain. A bank issue a bond for 100 cents on the dollar. 3 months ago, the market valued those bonds at, say, 75 cents on the dollar. The bank recorded a 25 cent profit because, in theory, they could buy the debt back at 75. Now the market for bank paper has improved and the bonds are now worth 85 cents. The bank has to record that 10 cent improvement as a loss, because they’ve already pocketed a decline from 100 to 75. If they were sharp enough to have actually bought back the debt, as I believe Morgan Stanley did, the latter won’t apply).Besides their previous “regular” mortgage business losses, the banks are facing huge losses on commercial real estate and commercial real estate loans, credit cards and personal lines of credit. A growing problem, which I’ve heard no talk about, is the bath they are taking on their recently acquired U.S. Treasury securities. “The Plan” was to repair bank balance sheets by having them earn the spread between almost no cost deposits and the yields on Treasury securities. The $2 trillion of liquidity the Fed has put into the banking system has primarily made it into Govt securities, rather than additional loans to corporations and consumers. These purchase are almost all under water, given the sharp back up in interest rates, and next quarter, if they are being honest, we should see some writedowns on these portfolios.Overall, the thing is a great confidence game. The banks are in lousy shape and getting worse. But the banks and the Goevernment, the Treasury and the Fed, don’t want you to believe that. If you don’t believe they are sound and improving, you take your money out. Collectively, that is a bank run, or rather a run on the banks. As I mentioned somewhere earlier, FDIC doesn’t have sufficient resources to shore things up. So we all believe in the banks, business as usual, the analysts upgrade them, the investors buy the stocks, driving up prices. This creates a “feel good” atmosphere so people begin to have the confidence to buy more shares and be a little less frugal with their wallets and purses. The economy begins to improve and everybody lives happily ever after.Unfortunately, as MM’s Bloomberg article points out, the foundation is a pack of lies.

GirafJune 5th, 2009 at 10:21 am

How is Big Oil stopping solar and wind power from being priced properly? Are they buying up all the raw materials at un-economic prices?

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 10:26 am

You touch on why I am an egalitarian, but not a Socialist – a capitalist egalitarian. (but anybody who thinks what we’re seeing is socialism is wrong: this is fascism writ larger and larger that we are getting from TPTB…it is the opposite what your average Socialist wants.)The money/wealth that only work creates belongs in the hands of the earners of it, who will, as you say, spend it on the goods and services they need and want – as they have right to do.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 10:30 am

we constitute governments as a necessary evil for the benefits we wouldn’t have without them – which are plenty if government is not hijacked and devoured by superwealth. Yes, all governments are pirates if the people let them be, but as soon as you have group you have government, so get used to the idea. you just have to watch them like a hawk. and democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the rest…

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 10:32 am

can you say unfair subsidies purchased by buying off the peoples’ supposed representatives? do you realize how large the subsidies are, and that YOU are paying for them?

GirafJune 5th, 2009 at 10:33 am

Send me your e-mail address and I’ll send you an interesting chart on the crude oil/gasoline relationship. Believe it or not, gas was very cheap in relation to crude last year.

PeteCAJune 5th, 2009 at 10:35 am

Earlier Question: “PeteCA, the other day you mentioned that you began seriously studying economics only in recent years. Are there a few books you recommend for someone who has only a basic understanding of economics?”————————————————–First, let me encourage you if your goal is to better understand the US economy (and the global economy). The single most important step that we can take as Americans – if we want to regain control of our economy and our country – is to understand how the money system works in America. Once you start to understand that, you can begin to see through the lies and illusions that are fed to the people on a daily basis. Ironically, I have come to suspect that few of our Congressmen have ever taken the time to understand economics and our system of money. How can we possibly restore sensible and responsible financial policies – when our own leaders don’t take the time to understand what is going on?Second, I would argue that “economic freedom” is one of the most important things that every American can have. In some ways it’s a lot more valuable that political freedom. We can all (fortunately) go to the polls and vote. Maybe we’re lucky and “our candidate” gets elected. Maybe not. But economic freedom is what allows us to better our lives … to work hard and enjoy the benefits … to have a chance to start again if something goes wrong with our personal finances. I have had the opportunity to go overseas and to try to help very poor people in third world countries. I can tell you that these people are slaves because they have no economic freedom – their system will never give them the chance to get a decent job; they have no ability to move to another place and start a new life; the people in government with power monopolize all the resources and all the money. The poor people are in chains.Perhaps this is why the men and women who founded our country decided to start a revolt based in part on the Boston Tea Party. It was an economic injustice that motivated that revolt. But they recognized that economic injustice and political injustice are strongly tied together. And so they decided to do something about it.For this reason I will never buy into the glib arguments that “America has never had a free economy”, or that our “free economy” was just an illusion. No economy is ever perfectly free. But we have been blessed (in past times) in America with an economy that was largely free, and it certainly gave a lot of good opportunities to many Americans. We need to stand up for that essential right to have a free economy, and we need to resist strongly any attempts to undermine it by those who have special powers or interests.Currently our enormous challenge in the USA is that we have all become slaves to debt. Debt has now reached such enormous levels in America that it threatens to undermine both our democracy and our free economy. It will take a major effort to turn this situation around.Getting back to the original question. I’d suggest that you take some time to read the articles that are posted on Web sites like:www.financialsense.comwww.321gold.comwww.prudentbear.comwww.dollarcollapse.comwww.moneyandmarkets.comPlease be aware that the authors of these articles must try to sell their own products – they generally have some type of investment that they are advocating. Yet it’s also quite true to say that many of these authors go to great lengths to offer free insights on money, finance, and economics. That’s especially true right now … as even seasoned veterans who have spent their whole careers in finance are becoming distraught at what is happening to the US financial system. It is not necessary for you to buy any of the products that are advertised on these sites. But if you take the time to reflect on the different points of view, you will find the articles stimulating. And naturally the discussions right here on the RGE monitor are also quite helpful at times – in terms of probing what is really going on.Good luck, and I wish you well as you take steps to regain control of the money that you own in this country. It’s one of the most important steps you could ever take – and also a very important step for our country’s future.PeteCA

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 10:40 am

“90% of folks who lose a job during recession/depression never again make what they were making. that my friends is called wage destruction by Big business…”http://www.idahostatesman.com/235/story/790098.html?storylink=omni_popularHide reply Reply to this comment By MM CA on 2009-06-04 10:29:23MANY THANKS and GOODNESS BLESS YOU, MM CA!(i’ve got to go weed the garden now, but had to say that first!)

SamIAmJune 5th, 2009 at 10:45 am

Equal pay for equal sacrifice is a worthy goal. How do you define sacrifice when you have a heterogeneous mixture of people all with different goals, talents, and abilities. To what do you normalize?

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 10:49 am

I know it was cheap – it should’ve been 8.00 – my point is our ecenomic structure in the US cannot afford gas at 4.50 let alone 8.00… nymet6973 on aol.

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 10:55 am

well said in a few words! It’s not in thier best interests profit wise to allow alternative energy to catch hold UNTIL there is no more oil.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 10:57 am

This rule just doesn’t apply in most areas of the country. I live in denver, have a good job, make about 60K a year – I dare you to find a house in this area for 180K.I have been seriously disappointed in our society’s reaction to this crisis. The market clearly sent a signal that house prices needed to reset. Now they’ve been artificially propped up, pushing people out of the market, or causing them to get into bad loans (again). Young people like myself have little to no opportunity to create solid financial futures for ourselves in this environment.

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 11:10 am

Enough reading for me this week on all the “doom and gloom” I’ll end with F..K the stock market… its the biggest ponzi scheme in the world. I played, i did well, but that was when i thought it was fair. I now no longer beleive the game is fair and in fact it hurts millions or people these days. And i dont want to be party to other Americans misery…

AnonymousJune 5th, 2009 at 11:16 am

Hi PeterCA,Not really coming on a regular basis (I was by the end of 2006 and early 2007). But I have popped in a regular basis searching our dear professor’s comments for “peterCA” and “gold”.I’m on the same line. I have saved my savings – which happened to be cash as a lot North-european reading the US-finance blogosphere.I understand that Nouriel can certainly not provide the service we would expect from him. For some obvious reason, it is up to american-born citizens to stand up and speak.Thanks for being one of the courageous members of this active US community (I appreciate the listings made by rubino). One great reason to believe American will back on tracks one day.We cannot replace the failing support to Ron Paul from here!

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 11:21 am

I did not say you could find a house for that much, only that that was a good rule of thumb to use for how much house you can realistically afford (and not be house poor).

WeRFFFFJune 5th, 2009 at 11:40 am

Thankyou MM this Friday for your fruitful, fantastic, fabulous facts on the failing financial fiasco that is fleecing American’s finances forever.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 11:52 am

http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gifhttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/http://www.shadowstats.com/http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_datahttp://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/http://suddendebt.blogspot.com/http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/http://www.hussmanfunds.com/http://hf-implode.com/http://www.nakedcapitalism.comhttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/02/on-sorry-state-of-general-motors.htmlhttp://www.boombustblog.com/http://bigpicture.typepad.com/http://wallstreetexaminer.com/http://www.minyanville.comhttp://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/15957http://www.nowandfutures.com/http://mises.org/http://www.nfib.com/page/researchFoundationhttp://www.investorsinsight.com/http://www.contraryinvestor.com/http://riskinstitute.ch/136160.htmhttp://www.321gold.com/http://www.kitco.com/http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.phphttp://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

SoftwarengineerJune 5th, 2009 at 12:23 pm

HI MICHELLEThe grim news is already in the WSJ. The 20-35 YOs have a much higher unemployment rate than the 36-60 YO group, due to seniority. The attorneys will tell you that firing based on seniority keeps the companies out of lawsuits.I’m not saying I don’t always disagree with you in all cases, but average layoff actauls are actuals.Another problem in America/World, the senior experienced folks have not mentored the younger ones adequately [this takes like 10 years for professional type complex jobs]; this has mainly occurred due to restrictive hiring practices the last 10 years in my opinion. In some cases the youth want to move quickly to “company to company” to chase dollars; in some cases, their temp/contract jobs simply disappear too quickly.

SoftwarengineerJune 5th, 2009 at 12:40 pm

BEING AMERICAN BORN HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH ITIts like calling Tom Tancredo a Hater because he says “We’re Full” and not sympathetic with more uncontrolled population growth into America, clearly making the economic mess worse and worse.Mr. Tancredo [an ex Congressman from CO] now works for the environmental group, Numbersusa, which utilizes the same demographic “science” of Earthday that Martin Luther King Jr, John Kennedy and even Richard Nixon vehemently supported. Are these folks “Haters” too? LOLDemographic science on current/past world/American overpopulation has absolutely nothing to do with politics, whether you were born in America, etc, etc….Wake up or face a likely defamation of character lawsuit some day for falsely calling someone a “Hater”, just because they adhere to the “Real Earthday Spirit”.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 12:54 pm

phill, my adviser told us to KEEP investing and NOT to get out.We were reading IBS abstracts in 2007 and saying Hey this doesn’t look good and he was saying, you need to keep investing; you aren’t ready to retire yet.After losing 30%of principle, who does one listen to? It’s crazy and all bets are off these days; Bear Rally or no. ….and still Meredith Whitney says the numbers are manipulated. Good luck to all.

Guest339June 5th, 2009 at 12:59 pm

Thanks very much PeteCA, for the comments and links.And thanks Guest, too, for the additional links.

ChignosJune 5th, 2009 at 1:06 pm

Since no one here seems willing to listen to any point of view other than one that likely reinforces their own, what would be the point of having a debate? With that attitude what is the point reading/blogging at all? Personally I like to learn information I haven’t previously been aware of—and there are some on this site that provide that, but they are not narrow-minded broken records. Limbaugh has some good points–if you never listen to him you never hear them. http://www.911mysteries.com is also interesting from a perspective at the opposite political extreme, or is it? (If you don’t look at it, you might be missing something.) Just know this: if you think that spouting off political rhetoric enlightens, you’re mistaken. It is not “debate.” We’ve heard it all before. It is boring.

MichelleJune 5th, 2009 at 1:17 pm

Have you considered that the over-40 age group is a protected class and that maybe it has less to do with seniority and more to do with age? The older age group is BY FAR more expensive to have on the payroll, particularly. when it comes to health care. If we could hire just youngsters to fill positions we’d gladly do it just to help keep our premiums lower.Your analysis is flawed in my opinion.As for the younger age group, they have been job hoppers, chasing dollars. I have seen many resumes where the applicant has stayed on average 2 years on any one job. Do you think I’m not hesitant hiring them? Training is very time-consuming and expensive, and I’m not willing to take a gamble on an applicant that has demonstrated lack of commitment.

AGolferJune 5th, 2009 at 1:51 pm

I rarely reply to a comment, but your’s is a gem. Try reading Debt & Delusion by Peter Warburton if you haven’t already. Keep passing the open windows …

Average JaneJune 5th, 2009 at 2:04 pm

As is laziness, SWK. My grandmother worked full-time at home taking care of 9 children during and after the depression, husband no help (alcoholic) and worked nights at the hospital in the kitchen peeling potatoes. They were poorer than church mice. And we don’t know the meaning of “hard work” anymore. The fact that I paid $130 for an electric toothbrush says it all. I’m ashamed.

PeteCAJune 5th, 2009 at 2:06 pm

To be fair … there certainly are some members of our Congress who have gone to great trouble to understand and probe the real problems with our money system. Ron Paul is one of these people, and to his credit he continues to be outspoken about deficiencies in the system. Former Comptroller David Walker also did a terrific job of pointing out the dangerous financial policies that we are following. My personal hope is that somehow Americans will find a way to turn things around in a way that does not lead to violence and anarchy – but this path can only happen if new voices and new leaders speak out for change in the right direction. Will this happen in time … I don’t know.One thing is for sure. It is foolhardy for creditors to be buying US debt at the kinds of interest rates we are offering right now. I don’t think we can count on further purchases of US bonds and treasuries by China and Japan for very much longer. The good relations that we have shared with Asia (in terms of financial policies) will go by the wayside.PeteCA

Sitting BullJune 5th, 2009 at 2:28 pm

Recent history has shown that there can be “jobless recoveries”, or to be more accurate, that GDP growth does not necessarily create wealth producing and decently paid jobs. The logical corrolary is that there is no reason why recession could not create useful jobs. The fallacy is to equate GDP with wealth, and wealth measured by money with welfare. Economics is certainly not a science, the truth of the matter is that it’s foremost ideology, i.e. the rationalization of a system of governement, just as Catholicism was the spiritual power that anointed the european monarchs. Think. Less is more. The time of atonement hath come

ChignosJune 5th, 2009 at 2:53 pm

Or, how about this: those in Washington who are so all-fired concerned to reform “health care” should be held to the following standard: WHAT’S GOOD ENOUGH FOR OBAMA IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR EVERYONE ELSE. Unless they’re offering to “fix” the health care system so that any American can get the same health care deal that Obama and Congress get, then it’s no deal. What about it Bernie Sanders and all you other single payer advocates? DEAL OR NO DEAL?

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 3:27 pm

From Zero Hedge:Payroll Data In PerspectivePosted by Tyler Durden at 3:26 PMCompliments of a much happier and much less Merrill “Is that the most bullish piece you can come up with” Lynch-supervised David Rosenberg.We have to put the data into perspective. Before the Lehman collapse, when equities were in a moderate bear market and bonds in a moderate bull market, the worst nonfarm payroll result we saw was -175,000. We don’t seem to recall too many pundits rejoicing over employment declines at that time, which were basically half of what was just posted in May. Moreover, the worst nonfarm payroll number in the 2001 recession — right after 9-11 — was -325,000; and before that, at the depths of the 1990-91 recession, the worst report showed a -306,000 print. So basically, what we saw today was a number consistent with a deep recession — just not quite as deep as the near-6% at an annual rate contraction we saw in the first quarter. It is difficult to rejoice over an employment data that is consistent with real GDP still declining anywhere from a 2% to 4% at an annual rate. Now here we are, close to nine months after the Lehman collapse, and we are still printing employment numbers that are double what they were before pre-Lehman. That is the bigger picture.Moreover, the internals of today’s report, in a word, were awful. Not only are businesses still cutting jobs but they are also reducing the hours that their employees are working; the private workweek hit a new record low of 33.1 hours (from 33.2 hours in April). So, total labour input was much weaker than the headline payroll suggests and this is vividly illustrated in the aggregate-hours worked index, which fell 0.7% MoM and something ‘green shoot’ advocates will not like discuss since this was actually worse than the 0.3% MoM drop in April; this takes the three-month trend to a -8.6% annual rate. Think about that for a moment because what goes into GDP is total hours worked and productivity — so the latter better continue to hang in there or else we are going to be seeing some nasty output data going forward that may well take Mr. Market by surprise. Put another way, if companies had held hours worked constant in May instead of cutting them, to achieve the total labour input they achieved last month would have required — get this — a 927,000 payroll cut. ‘Green shoot’ indeed.

kilgoresJune 5th, 2009 at 3:43 pm

I know what you mean. My paternal great-grandfather was a sharecropper (and, incidentally, a POW in Elmira, New York after being captured by the Yankees at the Battle of Cold Harbor). One of his 9-12 children, my grandfather, quit school at the age of 13 to support his entire family. He educated himself, read all of the Harvard Classics, and became a conductor on for the Altantic Coastal RailRoad at the age of 21 (not bad, being in charge of an entire train at that age). He always made my pick up every penny I spotted on the ground, and every Christmas gave all of his three grandsons a single new U.S. dollar as our present. My Dad wound up being the 99th person to receive three degrees from Emory University, and became an orthopaedic surgeon. My two younger brothers and I all attended professional school (one surgeon and two lawyers — a good ratio these days, in my view). For all this, I know we’ve had the luxury of being lazier that our father, our grandfather, and our great-grandfather because of the groundwork they laid for our success.As for paying $130 for a toothbrush, don’t beat yourself up about that, AJ. Good dental hygiene is well worth the price of a single trip to the dentist. I know my grandfather didn’t had any teeth left when he died, and if he had known early on about the importance of taking care of his teeth, he damn well would have sprung for a decent electric brush. At least you didn’t buy a disposable electric. ;-) SWK

CuriousGeorgeJune 5th, 2009 at 5:37 pm

Michelle – Does this week’s TALF auction(s) (and associated outcomes) have any impact on your view about June 12 – as it is the variable that is now present – that previously has not been?

tutterfrutJune 5th, 2009 at 6:18 pm

I’m bullish on this one. Although we reach major resistance levels, we could break through the 600 level…

PeterJBJune 5th, 2009 at 6:29 pm

Speaking of records at National level and delusion:Australia has become the only Nation on this planet where the postal system (snail mail) is faster that the Internet (e-mail). And, are we proud of this fact.After moving to a new home near the centre of the city, I now get 39kbps Broadband – officially. I am told by the ISP that this is the “best” expected speed and my solution is to either wait for a new government upgrade in infrastructure (about 10 years and 3 more election programs) or move. But to which country I asked?Recession? It is all neurological and lies (pun intended) with “leadership”.Oh? The Global Economic Collapse? It is now in the Middle Game and collapsing. US unemployment over 20% (Williams) debt 350% GDP, manufacturing zero and decreasing, productivity outsourcing to sun havens, house prices collapsing, “leadership” – LOL,USD in a state of collapse, UK finished, European Banks dead, etc.On the bright side: Denial is alive and vibrantly well.”sweet” says blind manHo hum

Plongka10June 5th, 2009 at 6:39 pm

Let us all think about less is more. Reduction in stress. Simple life. Extraction from the matrix. Enjoy being. Refuse to play the game.Anyone who continues to participate in stocks, equities, bonds, etc, etc, is part of the problem. Extract yourselves from the game and start to get real about living; Here, Now. There has been plenty of advice over the months on how you can do this. Only by extricating yourselves from the game that TPTB have constructed can you begin to construct the framework of the new paradigm. It is that simple; Stop railing against the inequalities of the System; it is up to every individual to construct their own reality. And if I am not mistaken, the majority of bloggers on this site want to elicit change. Well – do something about it! Change the way you live along sustainable lines. If enough people do it, we will obtain critical mass. That is the power of the internet. We can change the reality in which we live under the noses of TPTB and there is nothing they can do about it. The very fact that you yearn for change is actually changing the reality in which we live. Co-creation; Jung was really right on – the power of the colective unconscious is real. There is nothing to be gained from resistance – we must just let it flow through us and work on creating the reality we want to live in.It is simple, but relies on majority participation. DO you want to participate?

GirafJune 5th, 2009 at 6:42 pm

Can’t help you there. I’m not American borne and bred. Actually I’m an Englishman living in the Great White North.

Guest blindlyJune 5th, 2009 at 6:43 pm

g,justice can only be found in the heart andmind of humanity. or in the imagination.this is where all of our ideas concerningculture and society come from. justice canbe found there too.if is not found there mankind ceases to fulfillhis potential to become human and remains man, theanimal, pretending to be human, or being human(pretense) vs human being. justice is part ofthe make up of the human being.justice is the great wheel the human psyche ridesthrough life. you don’t have to find it, itwill always find you.that is the system we should adopt because itis happening and will not be denied, regardlessof what we wish or do to skirt the issue.imho.

PeterJBJune 5th, 2009 at 6:51 pm

Speaking of parochial bullsh$t and economic announcements:http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/06/05/the-pool-room–week-ending-friday-5th-june-2009/Actually. I find it all rather amusing – sad about the people that didn’t need to suffer but then, I don’t aspire to the “ëvil” nasty bankers (whankers) conspiracy theory and I will say it again: We have bred our demise where the cause is our ignorance and we always chose the most ignorant (lowest common denominator) as our leaders.As for bureaucrats: well, most of this lot are borne of a nature intertwined with that which we term communism – read into this what you like, but it’s consistent.The answers are all very simple but we just need to get past ego and denial.”Sweet” says blind manHo hum

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 6:52 pm

From NY TimesLong-Term Unemployment Rate Hits RecordThe unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent in May, the government says. That is bad enough, but we’ve seen worse.What is more alarming is the long-term unemployment rate. The government says that 4.5 percent of the work force has been out of work for 15 weeks or more. The worst previously seen — at least since 1948, when the government began counting people that way — was 4.2 percent, in December 1982.Put another way, 21 percent of those who are unemployed have been out of work for at least 15 weeks. That is also a record, exceeding the 19.6 percent proportion seen during the 1958 recession.Since employment peaked in 2007, the number of total jobs is down by 4.3 percent, and the number of private-sector jobs is down by 5.4 percent.Those figures exceed the peaks since 1950 of 4.2 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, set in that 1958 recession.The number of jobs over all is now down 6 million from the peak, while private-sector employment is off 6.3 million from the high.There is happiness today that the number of jobs being lost is decreasing. But the long-term unemployment rate shows that there is still a major problem in finding employment for people.NO JOBS!

MM CAJune 5th, 2009 at 6:55 pm

TOWNSHEND, Vt. – For weeks, Greg Noel roamed the spine of the Green Mountains with a handheld GPS unit, walking dirt roads and chatting with people as he helped create a map of every housing unit in the United States.Work was good: The sun was out, the snow was gone and the blackflies hadn’t begun to hatch. But now that work is over and Noel, 60, and more than 60,000 other Americans hired in April to help with the 2010 census are out of work once more.It’s a familiar predicament in today’s economy, in which some 2 million people searching for full-time work have had to settle for less, and unemployment is much higher than the official rate when all the Americans who gave up looking for jobs are counted, too.Because of the surge of hiring for the census, April unemployment only rose to 8.9 percent — a much slower increase than had been feared.Related linksStressed by bigger workload? Here are ways to copeHanah Cho: On the Job But consider these numbers:• The 8.9 percent April unemployment rate was based on 13.7 million Americans out of work. But that number doesn’t include discouraged workers or people who gave up looking for work after four weeks. Add those 700,000 people, and the unemployment rate would be 9.3 percent.• The official rate also doesn’t include “marginally attached workers,” or people who have looked for work in the past year but stopped searching in the past month because of barriers to employment such as child care, poor health or lack of transportation. Add those 1.4 million people, and the unemployment rate would be 10.1 percent.• The official rate also doesn’t include “involuntary part-time workers,” or the 2 million people like Noel who took a part-time job because that’s all they could get, plus those whose work hours dropped below the full-time level. Once those 9 million workers are added to the unemployment mix, the rate would be 15.8 percent.All told, nearly 25 million Americans were either unemployed, underemployed or had given up looking for a job in April.The ranks of involuntary part-timers has increased by 4.9 million in the past year, according to a May study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Many economists now predict unemployment won’t peak until 2010. And since employers generally increase the hours of existing workers before hiring new ones, workers could be looking for full-time jobs for some time.Even so, one economist said the increase in involuntary part-timers might have a silver lining. Gary Burtless, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institute, said employers are likely cutting back everyone’s hours instead of laying off people.”In many countries, it’s regarded as a good thing,” he said.For tens of thousands of people like Noel, a part-time job isn’t their dream, but it beats the alternative. A Pennsylvania native and veteran of the Silicon Valley boom-and-bust cycle, Noel settled in southern Vermont in 2003. He’d worked a series of jobs, commuting to his latest position as an auditor for a family owned food and beverage distributor in Brattleboro before being laid off in early spring.Vermont is in better shape than most states — but not by much. Real estate and tourism, pillars of the state’s economy over the past decade, are staggering.Many parents who were frantic last year about sons and daughters serving in Iraq and Afghanistan — the state has sent a disproportionate share of its young people overseas — now are relieved their children have a steady job with benefits. Financial jobs are few. “The economy?” Noel asks between bites of a bison burger in a tiny diner. “You just don’t know if it’s ever going to come back. We may never have it so good again.”When the Census Bureau offered him a part-time job mapping houses nearly an hour from his Windham home, Noel jumped at it. The money, $10 to $25 an hour plus 55 cents per mile, was a big factor. But Noel said he also wanted to be part of a larger community effort, and the 2010 census is nothing if not a large community effort.When the first numbers are released in December 2010, the Census Bureau will have spent more than $11 billion and hired about 1.2 million temporary employees. The government conducts its census every decade to determine the number of congressional seats assigned to each state, but the figures collected also help the government decide where to spend billions of dollars for the poor and disabled, where to build new schools and prisons and how state legislative boundaries should be designed.It hasn’t been the perfect job — that would be a full-time position with benefits — but Noel says the census job worked out well. It eased the pain of being unemployed, giving him something to do and made him realize his entire life doesn’t have to be about financial management.”It’s just statistics,” said Noel, “but it’s important.”But last week, he was unemployed again, a victim of the Census Bureau’s efficiency. Since the government was able to draw from a well-qualified but mostly out-of-work pool of applicants, the work done by more than 140,000 field employees went far more quickly than expected.”We’ve always done well, but this time around was amazing,” said Stephen L. Buckner, a Census Bureau spokesman. “It’s a tough economic time.”For some temporary workers, the outlook is brighter. Ian Gunn spent five weeks “being paid to hike. It was great.” Gunn, an 18-year-old high school senior heading to Renssalaer Polytechnic Institute next year to study computer science, hopes for a better economy when he graduates, one that offers more security than a series of part-time jobs.”It’s going to take time,” he said, “but I’ve got four more years.”Noel, though, is uncertain about the future. It’s possible he’ll be called back to work later in the fall for the final push. The Census Bureau expects to send roughly 1.2 million workers out to count people who don’t return their questionnaires; the hiring will push down unemployment numbers for several months during that period.For now, Noel says, he and his wife are living without frills. He looks for another job and she runs Green Mountain Chef, a catering business near Stratton Mountain. Demand has slowed dramatically since the economic meltdown began, as it has for most tourism-dependent businesses in Vermont.Noel hopes to avoid being a statistic for too long. Unemployment insurance will give him about $425 a week — enough to pay the mortgage and maybe the health insurance bill. Right now, the couple pays about $280 a month, but that will climb to $850 in September, when his government-subsidized COBRA policy expires.”I hope something comes up,” he says. “But there’s not an awful lot out there.”

PeterJBJune 5th, 2009 at 7:01 pm

SWKThank you… I can add, after you pass pain, you can easily find comedy: I wonder if this is the beginning of insanity?However, I find it extremely difficult to find any logic in the speech and tripe and horse pukky offered by this “leadership” (global). Just look at Obama’s Cairo speech: what has he said – Answer: Nothing!Germany has it right, not everyone else!kindestHo hum

Plongka10June 5th, 2009 at 7:06 pm

Agree that the answers are very simple and that we need to get beyond ego and denial. See post above.

PeterJBJune 5th, 2009 at 7:10 pm

Speaking of Great Bullsh$t:http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/06/fed-hires-former-enron-lobbyist-to.html“Fed Hires Former Enron Lobbyist to Burnish Its Image”"This development, that the Federal Reserve has hired one Linda Robertson, former Enron lobbyist and Summers/Rubin protege, to manage relations with the Hill, strikes me as a tacit admission that the Fed thinks it has an Enron scale problem brewing….”Yes, indeed… and more !!!!!!the new era bullsh$t program is on-line and coming to a store near ==========>>>>YOULOLHo hum

Plongka10June 5th, 2009 at 7:14 pm

Time to change the mindset and get busy living. Nothing else will work. We HAVE to change the paradigm. From acorns oak trees grow. It has to start somewhere,Railing against the status quo will not change the present reality. The change has to come on an individual level.It is down to all of us to elicit change. Forget about how you are going to extract your next dollar from behind a screen – don’t you see that you are only perpetuating the carnage? Stop playing THEIR game and start living for yourselves.

MichelleJune 5th, 2009 at 7:18 pm

Anybody remember the movie “Peggy Sue Got Married?” She asks her father, or was it her grandfather, what he’d do differently. He replied, “I would’ve taken better care of my teeth.”AJ, maybe there’s something to that comment!

Plongka10June 5th, 2009 at 7:22 pm

Time to change your individual paradigm. Your time would be better spent weeding your vegetasble patch. And if you have not got one, why not? Haven’t you been paying attention these last few years? Internet blogging is a luxury. Time to get your fingers covered with dirt.

blindmanJune 5th, 2009 at 7:27 pm

pjb,i think you could provide some context to thatparticular quote. context other than the contextprovided, like perhaps, the context or the completequote. after all the way you present it makes blindman sound like a deranged dog trapped in an emptydumpster with nothing but the sound of vermin circlinghis predicament.and it has been too long since your last post..i thought you had high speed service? 39kbps, that isdial up! the suffering has just begun for you, i expect your mood will sour now and i will look for theeffect in the content of your posts..

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 8:00 pm

What’s their alternative? If they stop buying, their present holdings will go down in value with the dollar and they will lose manufacturing jobs. They seem trapped for now.If they do stop buying, the weaker dollar will help Obama with his desire for creating manufacturing jobs, and green energy alternatives will begin to pencil out.hlowe

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 8:04 pm

Thanks–for the insight. If money is to have any value on both sides of the Pacific, it has to come to this.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 8:16 pm

But they will never “charge” themselves–it’s always the “outsiders”–the Lewises and the Mozilos–that they “use” in their schemes that will be charged or destroyed. The Paulsons, the Blankfeins, the Dimons, the Rubins, the Rockefellers, the Rothschilds, the Warburgs, the Summers, the Geithners, ad nauseam…will go scot free, to scheme and cheat again.

ArmchairJune 5th, 2009 at 8:48 pm

Green shooter must envision every downturn as a V-like action.Sort of like dropping a superball and watching it immediately bounce back to right where it was.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 8:54 pm

MM CA I agree with you about those numbers technically we have a chance to go there , but do you really believe they will let the market fall that bad.I mean this means 10 of millions people can not pay their mortgages and on top of unemployment add another 10-15 million at least.I dont think Fed will let anything like that happen , they will print money and throw in the system . Interest rates will rise but they will still try to keep it artifically low and throw more money in the system. They have to inflate the crise no matter what they can not accept even an ounce of deflations. Dont u think we should shedule ourselves according to high inflation ratios for the coming future ?

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 9:15 pm

Senator Bernie Sanders said today on Tom Hartmann’s radio program, “Brunch With Bernie,” that there’s a segment of America’s corporate culture whose patriotism is money. He said that if these people could make 10 cents more on a product by personally moving to China, they would.Sanders said that we’ve had an administration for eight years that not only didn’t do anything about companies moving offshore to avoid taxes, but rather encouraged it, noting that the former vice president of the United States, Dick Cheney, was affiliated with such a company–Halliburton, with segments in the Cayman Islands in 2003, now headquartered in Dubai, to avoid taxation.These corporations base themselves outside the United States; yet they rely on protection, and even business contracts, from the U.S. military/industrial complex and the U.S. military. They take all these billions and billions coming back to them in offshore profits, and rather than using any of it to support or create jobs in America, use it instead for bonuses and stock purchases. To make matters even less fair, the U.S. Congress provides them offshore tax havens to avoid taxes.So far, the majority party’s plans to substantially change these practices have been little more than grandstanding.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 9:20 pm

This additonal note from PeterJB above on unemployment: “US unemployment over 20% (Williams)…”

MichelleJune 5th, 2009 at 10:16 pm

I don’t know that the TALF auctions will have much impact as the CDS counterparties are usually hedge funds. What I believe I’ve been seeing is that the hedge funds don’t liquidate until they absolutely have to, allowing their investments to potentially gain value until the payment is due. I liken it to keeping your money in a high-yield checking account and not making your mortgage payment until the due date, never paying a day early.Two other issues next week include the impact of government’s previous bailout funds to GM and how that may or may not impact the final CDS auction price versus current CDS price. If I look to Fannie and Freddie for guidance, bailout funds probably won’t have an effect on the final auction price.The second issue is the 30 year treasury auction next Thursday. How successful will it be? If the market sells off hard that day, investors may be inclined to buy treasuries, offsetting concerns of the Fed monetizing our debt. Realistically, I expect the market to decline the most on Thursday for both the treasury and CDS auctions.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 10:27 pm

PeterJB, the people are not electing their leaders. It is now clear that the conspiracy (that you don’t see) creates the illusion that choices are presented; that we have two competing political parties, that Obama and McCain were fierce competitors–one representing a major portion of our population, the other representing the remainder.The conspiracy (that you don‘t see) was conspicuously present when members of the Obama cabinet were selected, is present when every major piece of both foreign policy and domestic policy legislation is not only decided, but is proposed. Do you think that a domeful of purchased legislators actually are choosing between competing policies? Do you think the news media can actually choose which stories to report without looking over its shoulder at the conspiracy (that you don’t see)?The people are the ultimate decider of this nation’s future, yes. But in recent years the conspiracy (that you don’t see) controls their choices, such as the laws and regulations that would stop a Ron Paul before he even gets started in the presidential primaries. The conspiracy (that you don’t see) has pushed corporate interests ahead of the people’s interests with major landmark legislation through the years establishing central control in Washington rather than state control by the people, enabling money to rule.Yes, the people are misled. A good example as to “why” is the labeling of legislation that deals with individual mortgages as something like “the act to help the people keep their homes.” Inside that legislation, of course, is the conspiracy (that you don’t see) working to get what it wants.A conspiracy, by the way, is an agreement between two or more persons to do an evil act in concert; a plot in secret … What could be more evil than secretly stealing other people’s money and, then, lying about it? If private bankers working secretly together to use the country’s currency for their own use is not a conspiracy, then what is? Another part of the evil plot is to make the law. For example, the bankers made the law that they have to meet in secret–for our benefit!It was conspiracy, incidentally, that led to the rewriting of the definition of “conspiracy.” You think conspirators are not powerful? They even can change the meanings of words.IMO, if America had had an open election in 2008, where everyone could complete in the presidential election on a level playing field, including money, we would not have seen Obama or McCain or Hillary as top presidential contenders.A lot of us have noticed what has happened in America—when enough are forced to notice, either by the warnings from people such as those on this blog, such as yourself PeterJB, or from their own personal impoverishment —perhaps, then, Gulliver will awaken and break the thousands of ropes that bind him.

PeterJBJune 5th, 2009 at 10:30 pm

“… after all the way you present it makes blindman sound like a deranged dog trapped in an emptydumpster with nothing but the sound of vermin circlinghis predicament.”Not at all – it is the way I feel her as a combination of applied fascism and communism spreads over the political landscape of Australia and looking ahead, the vermin, feral and vulture droids and getting ready to repeat history with their applied ignorance but cutting off the hands that serve them that is to say, the hands of the taxpayers or IOW, the heart and soul of the socio-economic force!”… and it has been too long since your last post.” Indeed, but I have been thinking about things. Demographically, the seeds of the coming major shift in civilization is amongst us and the tools to rid ourselves of those desperate ignoranti that would be kings are at hand. You see, it doesn’t matter that the secondary economy collapses and takes with it the remnants of the real economy (after “leadership” has raped and pillaged on behalf of THE banking system) because there will always be a real economy and rebuilding is what we do albeit with a certain degree of suffering (we need to learn by picking the cat up by the tail as, in the whole, the majority refuses to think).He who would be King ended his reign without his head – and so, will the story continue.Context: sorry, it seemed to me, that integrity was the context, or not, and therefore, the quotation was use in sarcasm albeit without license.My mood is tempered anger evolving to pity and then compassion but as the sage said, never drop your guard from those that you chose to help, for it will be they that bring your end.Ho hum

MichelleJune 5th, 2009 at 10:34 pm

Was that supposed to be funny? Oh, you’re posting anonymously, I guess it was meant to be cruel.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 10:34 pm

A twofer, not only do you get a bad background from Summers/Rubin who helped create the nation’s financial problems at the Fed and Treasury, but you get the Enron vibes, from arguably one of the largest public corporate scandals in recent memory.

GuestJune 5th, 2009 at 11:01 pm

Signs of the times:General Motors pays more for health care than for steel (Tom Hartmann today). Home Depot pays more in credit card transaction fees than it does for health care (NPR today).Additional references:“GM says health expenditures – $1,525 per car produced; there is more health care than steel in a GM vehicle’s price tag – are one of the main reasons it lost $1.1 billion in the first quarter of 2005.”http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north370.htmlHome Depot Spends More on Interchange than on Health Carehttp://www.creditslips.org/creditslips/2009/05/home-depot-spends-more-on-interchange-than-on-health-care.html

ChignosJune 5th, 2009 at 11:17 pm

So reduce the corporate tax rate to just below that of Dubai and capital (AND JOBS!) will flow back out of Dubai and into the US–it’s really simple, nimwits. Capital goes where it is welcome.Bernie Sanders was totally disingenuous on Tom Hartman today. He rambled on and on about the necessity/desirability of a single-payor health care system,…….but is he in favor of that being the same health care that he and the members of Congress have?????Well……no…… we’re not even discussing that are we? Sanders, like all socialists, thinks there’s one system appropriate for him (Cadillac) and another for the masses (Medicaid) for you. Vote for his ilk and/or quote him at your peril.

ChignosJune 5th, 2009 at 11:20 pm

Credit card transaction fees are not worth more than health care, but health care is worth more than steel.

ChignosJune 5th, 2009 at 11:41 pm

Single payor, my patute! What your blessed Democrat party envisions for you is a low class Medicaid-type of health insurance that will ensure that your lives are controlled by bean counters who have absolutely no experience in health caring. And not just for the uninsured, for all of the middle class. You doubt this? Then why isn’t this Democrat Congress talking about providing you with the same health insurance/care they enjoy? You think Medicaid would ever be good enough for these “servants of the people?”

blind de miloJune 6th, 2009 at 1:32 am

pjb,sometimes i hesitate to spoil a thing by touching it.but i know the world is sometimes not as delicate asit may appear.. anyway…….your stark depiction of the economic indicatorsin contrast to the word “sweet” created a momentof dissonance. i like to think this is my wheelhouse,dissonance, as i have always been aware of itspresence, lived with it, and tried to learn from it.tried to understand its meaning. the source ofit, appreciate and respect it. or eliminate it.the first thing to do is discern the nature of theperception classified as dissonant. is itin the nature of the perception, receiver, orin the nature of the source itself. i frequentlyfind the source of the dissonance, as in this case,is inside myself. but i understand there is more than internal dissonance afoot today..we may be running into laws of social organization?hard limitations. what is the time it takes foran idea whose time has come to be accepted by apopulation? and then work its way into the physical reality of culture so as to provide a working foundation, cross generational identity and memory. but it changes so fast now and we no longerare afforded even a cultural human identity. the cosmosare denying, have removed part of our selves from ourselves. information revolution. sweet? insane?hey, it wasn’t my idea.and …. how can this work as global communitiesbecome dependent, but not integrated. again the cart and horse, we first integrate with protection,self preservation mechanisms to alleviate the stressor potential disaster of dependence.? but integrate what? something that we can no longer even see?factors to consider…. size of population, complexity or simplicity of idea, existing capacity, mentality, of essential population.the environment has always provided the basis.nature always had analogy for man, or a number of them toeither wisely or foolishly choose. people will,in large numbers, once again, seek out analogies,once the current delusion is seen for what it is,self imposed and self defeating, suicide..as you know you have license. or freedom withouta license, even better..depending on the source…”bitter sweet”but you are correct anyway.. as so much of occupation, or employment, or jobs, or bread wining,or making money, or business, or entrepreneurialactivity or whatever ( these distinctions shouldbe thoroughly differentiated , not now ) is in collapse. real estate values are collapsing. etc..why, because it was not centered on any foundation?because it was actually destructive and we shouldhave a parade that it is finally gone?.so blind man, she, says “bitter sweet”. well, o.k.this ride to this collapse point has been goingon for decades and the prime force has been steppedon every day since its inception. this creepingfascism communism has been with us. it may be thatthis is what is collapsing. if the world is collapsing and it has been evaluated and found to be wanting then collapse it will. sweet. after allone cannot build anything without a foundation thatwill bare weight and collapsing structures do notprovide the necessary foundation. this, i believe, to be true in the “physical” as well as other domains.i don’t believe in capitalism either because i don’t thinkit has ever really existed outside of the theory inthe minds of certain individuals playing the valuepossession and “transfer more than my share to me” game. it is a term likethe other isms.casino logic. very important to a gambler and we are all gamblers by some definitions, right. eventhe unborn, little gamblers waiting to happen.?sure, what the hell?.certainly 2009 will not be seen as its heyday. if one could identify its heyday another could point out the millions of other people who sacrificed life and limb to make it so.our current systems will either prove prosperousfor humanity, doubtful, or preposterous and disastrous, in which casethe prime force will have fresh dissonance toexamine and then civic action and thinking willempower millions or billions of hungry people, allout of chips in a crooked casino that used to becalled planet earth..in a sense my end is just my beginning. happenseveryday, right?.adaptivism.? and silence.sometimes i hesitate to spoil a thing by touching it.and other random thoughts.are you really on dial up speed? i thought i was thelast one. don’t tell me you pay for cable t.v.please.

Guest tooJune 6th, 2009 at 2:57 am

tom waitseverything you can think of is true.everything you can think of is truebefore, the ocean, was blueyou were lost in a flood run red with your blood’snigerian, skeleton, crew.everything you can think of is truethe dish, ran away with, the spoondig deep in your heart for that little red glowwe’re de..composing as we go.everything you can think of is trueand fishes make wishes on youwe’re fighting our way up dreamland’s spinewith black flamingos, expensive wine.everything you can think of is truethe baby’s asleep in your shoeyour teeth are buildings with yellow doorsyour eyes are fish, on a creamy shore…….

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 4:43 am

@PeterJBI read your comment above regarding obama cairo speech. You said there was nothing in the speech, that might be true but then what was the motive behind it. I also think his speech contradicted his ongoing policy and actions. I would love to hear your take bit in detail. Thanks

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 5:48 am

What on earth makes you think people can’t both raise a garden and communicate on the web?

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 6:13 am

said above: “Railing against the status quo will not change the present reality. The change has to come on an individual level.”Go tell that to Frederick Douglass.”Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did, and it never will. Find out just what people will submit to, and you have found out the exact amount of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them; and these will continue till they have resisted with either words or blows, or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they suppress.”"Those who profess to favor freedom, and yet depreciate agitation, are men who want rain without thunder and lightning. They want the ocean without the roar of its many waters.”"The whole history of the progress of human liberty shows that all concessions yet made to her august claims have been born of earnest struggle….If there is no struggle, there is no progress.” – Frederick Douglassalso said above: “It is down to all of us to elicit change.”so, which is it? We do or don’t need to elicit change? you appear to contradict yourself.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 6:25 am

It’s not annoying me – and no, I’m not the one posting the lyrics. Learn to use your scroll button, and think upon how deadly censorship is, and how song lyrics are often poetry…meant to expand and nurture the soul and build the mental muscle.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 6:34 am

“Sanders, like all socialists, thinks…”Spoken by a guy who accuses others of being blind, narrow-minded idealogues. Hilarious. No mature person of rational mind can take you seriously, Chignos. I don’t even believe you are a doctor – but then again, somewhere out there in this world is the worst doctor of them all. Could be you, I guess.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 6:47 am

Amen, Guest. Whenever we get too close to the truth, somebody rides in to disparage the very idea that conspiracies exist, confirming their ignorance of past events. So sad.I think good people mentally paste their own goodness onto others, making it impossible for them to believe the horrible stuff these elites conspire to pull off. And i think the baddies also paste their own immorality onto the good people, which gives them a skewed notion of human nature as greedy and ruthless.Alternatively, perhaps the baddies have just figured out how good and honest and innocent the people are, and that is why they don’t even bother to hide what they are doing so much anymore – they know the people will just take it and take it and take it, take all the injustices they perpetrate without much complaint at all.anyway, thanks for speaking up – and don’t stop.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 6:55 am

“There is nothing to be gained from resistance”that’s BULLSHIT. Try telling it to Mohandas Gandhi.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 7:00 am

yeah, but fully half of them came from the person posting the “great articles here” link ad nauseum.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 7:20 am

I know how to use my scroll button perfectly fine, Guest pedant, and not appreciating the mindless posting of lyrics on this site has nothing to do with censorship.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 7:23 am

Equal pay for equal sacrifice is a worthy goal. How do you define sacrifice when you have a heterogeneous mixture of people all with different goals, talents, and abilities. To what do you normalize?By SamIAm on 2009-06-05 10:45:27Hi, SamIAm. The shortest answer is: Time spent doing the work.All work is one of two things; and only human work deserves pay. Work is either work that Mother Nature did, like putting the gold in the ground or giving us bees to pollinate the world’s crops…or it is the sacrifice of an individual’s (irreplacable) time and (renewable) energies.What has been tragically lost via econo-speak is the absolutely crucial and primary, fundamental fact that humans all have the same RIGHTS and the same NEEDS for survival despite the differing gifts they are given in the birth lottery.The “science” of Economics (ho ho ho) is actually nothing more than a list of attempted excuses for overpayunderpay…for underpaying many so a few at the tippy top of humanity’s unnecessary pyramid can be overpaid.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 7:29 am

You’re missing the fact that we don’t ALL think like you: we don’t ALL judge the lyrics or the posting of them mindless. And creating a climate of intolerance has everything to do with censorship.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 8:01 am

So am I right in presuming that a kid that drops out of school and mows lawns for 8 hours a day should be paid the same as a brain surgeon, who has studied for I don’t know how many years, who puts in 8 hours work at the hospital?They’ve both “sacrificed” 8 hours of their time doing work. They should be paid equally?

ChignosJune 6th, 2009 at 8:25 am

Here’s your official Medicaid card, guest. Don’t worry, it’s real-it’s signed by Bernie Sanders and Thom Hartmann! Good luck finding a doctor who’ll take it.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 8:52 am

Capital does flow where it is welcome(pays nothing). However, was is the public interest in allowing the global free flow of capital to roam the world in metaexploitation. You are under some extreme delusion that totally free capital is desirable for Civic Stability. Hot money has the same morals as piracy. Extremely deregulated free global capital always ends up in downward harmonization of the lives of the middle class to a synchronous global povertyfor most and huge profits for the financial parasitical few

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 9:07 am

Second Guest is reducing to ridiculous an equal pay to equal sacrifice comment from prior guest with his example. Economics in the hands of pseudo-intellectuals becomes a method to perpetuate the wealth of those who pay the economists to create dogma. There must be some regulation on the extent of accumulation of wealth to prevent the concentration into a permanent Aristocracy. High marginal tax rates on the rich and inheritance taxes did this job in the past. Representative Democracy as now practiced depends on capital for campaigning. If an unusual concentration of power and capital develops we get a Captured AristocraticDemocracy. This is what we have today. The concentration of wealth in the Financial Elite allows them to plunder and cement their total power over government. We have failed to control wealth concentration through taxation and regulation and will now need a mass populist movement to dethrone the entrenchedMonetary Aristocracy. The problem is that they own the media, both political parties, the think tanks, and all other venues of disseminating ideas.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 9:09 am

Finding the posting of lyrics on an economics web site annoying generates a “climate of intolerance”? Guest, are you one of those people who subjects hapless strangers in retail stores, restaurants, airline terminals, and other public places to your loud and extended cell phone conversations because you believe it’s your divine right to talk on a cell phone?

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 9:27 am

“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” Edmund Burke 1729 – 1797“Our brethren are already in the field! Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!” Patrick Henry March 23, 1775.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 9:34 am

There seem to be some patterns in the big picture machinations of the Financial Elite. The Megabanks have used the bailouts, the accouting trickery and the sucking in of new shareholders to appear solvent. It is now time to bring back Austerity for the Peons. The Austerity will dismantled the economic stabilizers. The megabanks however will take that long term low fed funds rate policy and JUICE THE SPREAD, by charging high interest rates on credit cards and mortgages to repair their balance sheet over a decade. Over the same decade, they will institute a crusade to eliminate the post-depression social programs. They will also privatize all possible functions of government in the name of austerity.Privatization is big business and can lead to great profits. Where does this lead the normal working American? His children will have no college education, since he can’t afford it. He will have no health insurance. He will live paycheck on minimum wages. We will drift into a Dickensian world. We are now living the nightmare of Parasitical Speculative Financial Autocracy. The objective has always been to establish a mechanical low wage efficiency that likens the normal worker to a cog in the machine.The unwashed will toil while the elite push computer keys to speculate. God Forbid, this speculative elite have to get their hands dirty to create the innovations of the future. They will allow the productive to do this, then they will use the favorable taxation of debt to take over the products of innovation.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 9:55 am

Namaste, 9:078:01, The hours spent in study require the sacrifice of an individual’s time and energies. That is work and gets paid fairpay under the principles of justice. Society does, of course, have the right to say the student must be studying something society wants studied and he/she must meet described standards of learning. If you pay the doctor for all his workhours of study, there is no reason to overpay him forever after while he practices his learned art of healing. Also consider: Do you want a doctor who is in it for the big money, or do you want somebody who feels called to heal people?

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 10:02 am

Also, 8:01, please note that i do not call for cutting everyone an equal paycheck – that is not the solution I propose. My solution – the 2 steps i re-listed above – doesn’t even try to undo all the legal thefts in our dystem, it takes the easy (do-able) way out and just clips the peaks of wealth and dumps them into the troughs to create a pacific economic sea to sail our lives on. It counters the ceaseless drift of wealth from earners to non-earners, it keeps concentration of wealth and power from concentrating to infinity by installing a relief valve so the machine doesn’t explode from becoming over-pressurized.

AnonymousJune 6th, 2009 at 10:02 am

the concept of good people pasting their goodness onto unnamed others, is so profound–i.e., we’ve all get to get alone, maybe they made some mistakes, but we’ve got to go forward; people are essentially good, let’s give them a chance… a tremendous point.

HayesJune 6th, 2009 at 10:04 am

Obama Beachthis is not a political comment – it’s just funny)Gordon Brown mis-speaks at D-Day ceremonyhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-RNqD-gO9w

PeteCAJune 6th, 2009 at 10:08 am

Their alternative is to cycle dollars into other types of useful assets. If I were them, I’d be looking at the range of commodities and natural materials produced by America – and buying those instead (that includes food). Same thing goes for precious metals. I do think the Chinese will have to loosen their peg on the US dollar again … raging inflation inside their own country will force them to do that.PeteCA

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 10:14 am

also again, 8:01, does society need lawns to be mowed? does society need floors to be mopped, toilets to be scrubbed, garbage to be hauled, buildings to be built, bread to be baked, (put all the “common” skilled and so-called unskilled jobs being done by the mass of humanity here)?Do people currently get pay in accord with how long (and hard) they work? do they even get paid in accord with how much society needs their work to be done? Does George Will make a lot more money than your garbageman? If both died tomorrow, which one would you need back the most – the guy who preserves your family’s sanitation needs or the guy who gets oodles to write – erm – what he writes?

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 10:19 am

No, I don’t HAVE a cell-phone. But it doesn’t bother me if others need to use them – unless it’s someplace supposed to be quiet like the library or children’s chorus concert performances or something.

AnonymousJune 6th, 2009 at 10:24 am

Very few Americans can support the narrow ideas that Bernie Sanders proclaims on welfare-related subjects such as health care. But Thom Hartmann, who is a fringe progressive in some areas, has explained that many politicians in the past have been candidates for interviews on his program, but only Bernie Sanders is willing to take all listener calls, no matter what they are, unrehearsed, and give the answers he sees fit. Hartmann explains that he has had politicians on and questions were asked that the next day the congressman’s staff would call with charges such as “what do you mean allowing questions like that?”I am a conservative, but I listen to “Brunch With Bernie” to hear sincere questions from the people, and answers from a United States senator.(By the way, Hartmann and Bernie both believe that our problem is a bunch of people on Wall Street.)

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 10:35 am

That’s the kind of question my own brain loves to play ball with, Sugar, but for now just know i’m not one who cares if you do or don’t sign “a name”.I’m thinking of becoming ‘Tad Bad and the Better Boys’ myself. Or maybe Nuvoletta, or maybe …

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 10:36 am

How about this theory on “Guest.” The role of a screen name is so that participants gain “cred” for their contributions and are able to carry on a dialogue. But if one would rather make a comment without Ego or the need for reply then Guest works just fine.An over the last several years on this blog I have seen a significant trend away from screen names towards the use of Guest. Why? Someone may wish to share a bit of information without the hassle of a “dialogue”; however, the more salient feature is that dialogues degenerate into nit-picky and negative exchanges which overcomes any desire to build “cred.”

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 10:37 am

The fly in the ointment here is the definition of “rich.” Some define it as “$60,000 a year in ‘unearned’ income.”http://www.americasdebate.com/forums/simple/index.php/t3700.htmlObama in 2007 defined it as people who earn $97K a year; he now officially defines it as “a couple with taxable income starting at about $235,000… Administration officials also defended a related plan to limit the value of deductions for people making $250,000 and up, as a way to help pay for the cost of overhauling the health-care system.”http://www.filife.com/stories/higher-tax-would-hit-at-235000In that the housing bubble still has not shrunk down to “income size,” a couple earning $235,000 in one of the expensive places (New York, San Francisco), is still unable to afford decent housing.Obama’s racial/communist ideas, that support all the bankers want, will destroy the middle class. The bottom line to Obama’s kind of thinking is that we have to have big money to line the bankers’ pockets and to supply the manna to all the hungry socialist special interests that support him.Where is the money? It’s not with the working poor; it’s not with the tax dodging elitist rich: the money is with the middle class. Says Obama, if we have to lie and say that we’re taking the money from the “rich,” then we’re going to have do it. Because without this money, we can’t operate.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 10:42 am

Where did Chignos get the bizzarre idea that any of our problems have anything at all to do with a LACK of capital available to be invested????????And have we all forgotten that capital formation is highest in the most egalitarian countries?

Plongka10June 6th, 2009 at 11:17 am

You will note that the next sentence says that change needs to occur on an individual level. Real change on an individual level requires a great deal of struggle. That struggle can lead to progress in changing your paradigm.It is not contradictory on a personal level, and indiviual change is really what is required at this time.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 11:17 am

Ignoring the Obama’s a commie racist and socialists suck remarks, ahem, Here is an extremely handy 3-minute visual guide to clarify “who is where on the what-defines-rich scale”:the L curve dot orggo get your economics PHD in 3 minutes.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 11:36 am

Well, I certainly agree that it is what’s in the majority of heads that is driving everything that is going on and the ideas in our minds must change in order to change culture, but I disagree stongly that, as you said earlier, “there is nothing to be gained by resistance”.I hope you agree that real change on an individual level requires interacting with good teachers…with others who know the stuff we don’t know ourselves yet…and that the change acquired/acheived needs to be acted upon as soon as a majority gain clarity of (especially economic) thought.

MorbidJune 6th, 2009 at 12:07 pm

It’s a Freudian slip of the tongue – and indicative of some deeper portent that will become evident in Obama’s presidency. Being Morbid, as I am, I can only imagine it heralds REAL CHANGE – but something that Obi is not expecting.

Guest tooJune 6th, 2009 at 12:42 pm

g,the explanation is long and you probably wouldn’tcare to hear it so let me just say there are some interesting turns of phrases and ideas in there andthey are not entirely off point to the many discussionsof economic import above. it takes a certain freedomof mind or thought to make real interesting connections, the kind that can save your life even. i regretthat you wasted your time being annoyed and that ihad anything to do with it. apologies.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 12:49 pm

Cramer penned an editorial in the NYT praising BB as the best Fed chairman ever. One of my biggest fantasies these days is Cramer is in the first cart en route to the guillotine when the revolution comes.

PeteCAJune 6th, 2009 at 1:23 pm

Ben Bernanke has been a very loyal servant to the US Government – and to the group of financial elite bankers who run this country.However, his miracle working is coming to an end. It’s helpful to look beyond the smokescreen of press articles – which only give a surface view. Mr Geithner was in China very recently, and was reported as getting laughter when he suggested that Chinese debts were “safe”. But behind the scenes … it seems likely that Chinese officials expressed much stronger statements about their future plans to diversify assets (away from US debt). They confirmed that with a brief press release this week. Meanwhile, the Fed is running out of monetary miracles to save the US economy. There is only SO MUCH that they can do. That was Ben Bernanke’s point when he spoke to Congress this week – and told our politicians that they needed to cut spending. The signals are growing stronger and stronger that the game is over. It is not possible for Congress to continue to dump its spending problems in the lap of the Fed.All of which leaves the US Government in a tight spot right now. Tax receipts have dwindled (maybe by 30% of more) due to the downturn, and does anyone believe they are going to make a miraculous recovery while US unemployment is somewhere around 9.5%? (real figures higher). Serious pressure is bearing down on Congress now to make significant spending cuts. Of course, that would be the least favorite choice of any of our career politicians. But these would have to be real cuts – with real pain to Americans. Or alternatively, real increases in taxation rates.And by the way … this is clearly a bad omen for the state Gov’t of California as they go begging for bailouts in Washington DC. As goes California, so goes the US economy. It is time for painful cuts.PeteCA

kilgoresJune 6th, 2009 at 1:32 pm

Cramer is the financial cable television version of the once-ubiquitous AM radio morning DJ. You can’t take him seriously enough to believe he merits execution.SWK

HayesJune 6th, 2009 at 1:38 pm

New Roubini video on Bloomberg (similar message recession 6-9months more, yellow weeds, W shape etc and $200 oil (that’s new miunte2:15) – potenital for a perfect storm aheadhttp://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Roubini%20Dismisses%20%60Green%20Shoots%2C%27%20Sees%20%60Complacency%27&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vAkt_1Obh0IE.asf

kilgoresJune 6th, 2009 at 1:54 pm

So by supporting what the capitalist bankers want, President Obama is displaying racist/communist ideas? Does not compute….We’re not going to see any real stability in the U.S. until we can narrow the range of income differentials between the richest Americans and the poor by growing the middle class from both the lower and upper ends. That may require a redefinition of what the middle class can expect in terms of its average standard of living. The government must ultimately enact tax policies that result in the wealthy being much less so, and perhaps, some of the upper middle class and middle class marginally less so. Redistribution of wealth through tax policy will never sit well with those who advocate for completely unfettered free markets, but by the same token, the disparity in wealth that ultimately results from nearly regressive tax policies that do not sufficiently redistribute wealth is anathema to any democratic system of government, because it leads to lopsided control of the levers of government by those with money, effectively disenfranchising the not-so-fortunate balance of the electorate.This is not socialism or communism. It is not robbing the fruits of Peter to pay Paul. It is the cost we all must bear for a truly democratic republic, as is the prudent regulation of the free market the price we must pay to fend off a return to feudal serfdom.SWK

MorbidJune 6th, 2009 at 2:08 pm

It will only be $200 oil if the world economy bounces back.I still have the strange perception that there is a Black Swan event that will manifest. But, being Morbid, I guess that is to be expected.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 2:39 pm

Really, this is the only way that will work. I do think this is the place that Roubini is coming from.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 2:43 pm

That “stuff” Will writes is valuable to somebody — somebody with the bucks to pay.It’s not the value of what you do, it’s who you work for.

Guest 67June 6th, 2009 at 2:51 pm

SWK, is it a democratic society that robs Peter (the productive of society) to buy the votes of Paul (the non tax paying 40+% of society)?All the you will eventually do is drive the productive people away to other lands. Take a look back to what happened in the U.K. under Harold Wilson and his successor (Jim Callahan, I think). The brain drain was stunning and the economy went into the tank.

kilgoresJune 6th, 2009 at 3:31 pm

Baloney. It didn’t happen following Roosevelt’s restructuring of tax policies in the 1930s and 1940s, and it won’t happen now. This is still a great country and a great place to be living.Is it a democratic society that allows monied interests to run amok and pervert governance of the republic to their own ends? I think not.It is not “robbing” to tax and redistribute wealth in the public interest. Moreover, I don’t know where you get the idea that 40% of the citizens in this country don’t pay taxes. Even the poor pay sales tax.SWK

HayesJune 6th, 2009 at 3:33 pm

Black Swine event + Israel vs.Iran. The latter would certainly deliver $200 (maybe $400) oil though I have to think that with the Israel lobby presumably entrenched within the President’s innermost circle, one wonders how this will all play out. Cairo was a brilliant, if disingenuous speech that likely was part of a good cop (Obama) bad cop (Netanyahu) routine. One wonders how long Iran will have to stand down before Israel is given the go ahead from Washington, less than two years I would think.Of course if there has been a shift in US policy away from Israel then timing will be more like six months or even less and Israel will go it alone. Should that happen Roubini will have to perhaps look to the Phoenician alphabet where the symbol for the letter M (water) would be appropriate to describe the economy going forward.

kilgoresJune 6th, 2009 at 4:34 pm

The only problem is that it get confusing when one sub-thread has posts by several different ‘Guest’ posters, and it becomes difficult to follow the train of thought of a single poster among a myriad of others with the same name designation.SWK

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 4:55 pm

Why is it “time for painful cuts”?! Honestly, I wish someone would explain to me why it isn’t utterly obvious that it’s time to choose the option of doing pay justice, which would make 99% of people better off financially and 100% of people better off in quality of life!Everyone seems to be convinced that we have to CUT our quality of life and our pay, when doing pay justice escalates our pay, our safety, our peace, freedom, security and happiness – which is everyone’s everything!Why is it so damn hard to convince 99% of humanity to take a big rise in pay in order to save this planet and every species??

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 5:00 pm

Every day, every hour, every human is turning out misery, turning the handles that turns out minced humans minced happiness, not because they are evil, just because they are wrong – just because they do not dump their mindless faith in human custom and use common sense.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 5:27 pm

I agree I’m complicit in a miserable system. I feel terrible about it. Life should not be like this. I want out.But how do I raise my children otherwise?

Guest 67June 6th, 2009 at 5:41 pm

@swkMy reference to 40+% taxes were income taxes. You are right, pretty much everybody pays sales taxes.Back in the 30s and 40s I doubt there was not much mobility in labour. 2009 is a completely different story. Steal their money and they will leave.What gives you or others the right to a greater share of my hard earned income? I pay my taxes, my share of the cost of communal services. Why shouldn’t all others do the same? Wealth distribution is outright theft.

PeterJBJune 6th, 2009 at 5:44 pm

@ blind man to all the above:I point out that 39kbps is far less than dial-up and Yes, I pay for satellite TV.Yes.Consider that the foundations of the Great Pyramid were laid with a tolerance less than a millimetre whereby today, most builders starting in the game, don’t even consider that the ‘level’ of the foundation is important.We breed our demise, which occurs in cyclic events which obey the Universal Laws and as tacit knowledge declines and memory fades – as it becomes to be considered unimportant – we repeat our natural mistakes as von Hayek points out in The Road to Serfdom – which involves naturally applying fascism and communism and all that other miserable crap that incompetent and uneducated leadership always invoke when their status is threatened.WE forget that the ONLY thing that makes us human is our potential to transcend the cycles and this we must work towards, but we don’t as we love entertainment so we elect leadership from the jesters and clowns and watch the show on TV, like the news, the weather and Days of our Lives, its all entertainment.This leaves a choice:A. Let it be and enjoy life: accept death and taxes and believe what your government tells you.Result: Taxation and Death. Actually from A B Kuhn, men are dead or in the state of death whereby the challenge to to become alive to be borne – or “reborn”.B. To arise from the human state of death, to become homo sapien sapien, by 1. thinking, 2. considering, 3. experiencing, 4. being sentient and by finding the whole picture that is to say, putting the pieces together.Result: Civilization and a certain depolarization from the effects of the natural cycles and this can be achieved on a personal level or at a collective level subject to Universal Laws and the sentient stamina in play. But eventually, the spiral reaches the similar position in repetition BUT at a different plane. This is termed differentiation or maturity, if you prefer.So, we may think that we are in control of our situation, but we are not: we are in autoplay transiting through chaos – or phase transition towards a new order.Real economy: the hearts and soul of collective man expressed demographically albeit in aggregation. It is always there or with us.Secondary economy: mostly always with us but not necessarily so; the alter ego of the real economy and which can take many forms but the nature is more or less identical and analogically similar to the relationship between woman and man (where man is the alter ego of woman). I speak in terms of Universal Principles.Fiat money is a medium of exchange and should be treated a such. Banks should not be permitted to become large corporate entities as in physics, this causes granulations and imbalances. Money should not be worshipped.Governance should be by qualitative constraints – the wings of butterflies in accordance with Universal Principles and the application of music theory – ädaptivism indeed.Leadership is that light far away, untouchable but brings warmth and comfort to the heart; is untouchable yet within and is subject to the state of differentiation of those who seek and need leadership.Anger, or dissonance, arises from the breakdown in order of that which is good and or accepted or perhaps you may see that as a rupture of elegance and anger is that emotionally expressed action which attempts to repair the elegance of yesterday. But alas, the imposed state of differentiation though tacit change permits no return for those of the Osirian nature which are destined to press to their due effect or meet their hard fate en route. When one sees anger or feels anger, good is broken; elegance is gone and change has come; such is music.I think blind man that you are close to your point of return…ho hum

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 5:54 pm

LOOK AT THE WORLD. How is it possible that you do not see that individual contribution to the pool of wealth is LIMITED…that it is physically impossible for any individual to work more than about twice as long and hard as any other individual…and how can you fail to grok that this means the wealth it takes everyone to create/produce has been and is being redistributed from poor to rich, and not the other way around? If you are against the unjustice of wealth being taken from earners and given to non-earners, then your only rational position is to campaign for pay justice. THAT’s how you stop the THEFT, the unjust disribution of wealth.

PeterJBJune 6th, 2009 at 6:08 pm

” … your stark depiction of the economic indicatorsin contrast to the word “sweet” created a momentof dissonance. “@ blind man to all that you write above: Aye.I point out that 39kbps is far less than dial-up and Yes, I pay for satellite TV.Consider that the foundations of the Great Pyramid were laid with a tolerance less than a millimetre whereby today, most builders starting in the game, don’t even consider that the ‘level’ of the foundation is important.We breed our demise, which occurs in cyclic events which obey the Universal Laws and as tacit knowledge declines and memory fades – as it becomes to be considered unimportant – we repeat our natural mistakes as von Hayek points out in The Road to Serfdom – which involves naturally applying fascism and communism and all that other miserable crap that incompetent and uneducated leadership always invoke when their status is threatened.WE forget that the ONLY thing that makes us human is our potential to transcend the cycles and this we must work towards, but we don’t as we love entertainment so we elect leadership from the jesters and clowns and watch the show on TV, like the news, the weather and Days of our Lives, its all entertainment.This leaves a choice:A. Let it be and enjoy life: accept death and taxes and believe what your government tells you.Result: Taxation and Death. Actually from A B Kuhn, men are dead or in the state of death whereby the challenge to to become alive to be borne – or “reborn”.B. To arise from the human state of death, to become homo sapien sapien, by 1. thinking, 2. considering, 3. experiencing, 4. being sentient and by finding the whole picture that is to say, putting the pieces together.Result: Civilization and a certain depolarization from the effects of the natural cycles and this can be achieved on a personal level or at a collective level subject to Universal Laws and the sentient stamina in play. But eventually, the spiral reaches the similar position in repetition BUT at a different plane. This is termed differentiation or maturity, if you prefer.So, we may think that we are in control of our situation, but we are not: we are in autoplay transiting through chaos – or phase transition towards a new order.Real economy: the hearts and soul of collective man expressed demographically albeit in aggregation. It is always there or with us.Secondary economy: mostly always with us but not necessarily so; the alter ego of the real economy and which can take many forms but the nature is more or less identical and analogically similar to the relationship between woman and man (where man is the alter ego of woman). I speak in terms of Universal Principles.Fiat money is a medium of exchange and should be treated a such. Banks should not be permitted to become large corporate entities as in physics, this causes granulations and imbalances. Money should not be worshipped.Governance should be by qualitative constraints – the wings of butterflies in accordance with Universal Principles and the application of music theory – ädaptivism indeed.Leadership is that light far away, untouchable but brings warmth and comfort to the heart; is untouchable yet within and is subject to the state of differentiation of those who seek and need leadership.Anger, or dissonance, arises from the breakdown in order of that which is good and or accepted or perhaps you may see that as a rupture of elegance and anger is that emotionally expressed action which attempts to repair the elegance of yesterday. But alas, the imposed state of differentiation though tacit change permits no return for those of the Osirian nature which are destined to press to their due effect or meet their hard fate en route. When one sees anger or feels anger, good is broken; elegance is gone and change has come; such is music.Fear of death itself cannot be attributed to one that is already dead – fear of death is actually fear of change or the fear of being subjected to the light of day when dragged from Plato’s Cave and we humans can and do become accustomed to anything; we are very adaptive but why must this change be imposed?I think blind man that you are close to your point of return…ho hum

kilgoresJune 6th, 2009 at 6:26 pm

Guest @ 17:41:15:I always see bumper stickers with the motto, “Freedom is not free.” I agree. The price we pay for freedom isn’t limited to sacrifice on the field of battle. It also involves sacrifice of a portion of our hard-earned income to help those less fortunate that we, and for the common good. Without a rational, progressive tax policy, wealth becomes concentrated in the hands of a few, and political power does as well. I earn a pretty good living myself, and gladly pay a higher marginal tax rate than most Americans. Indeed, I freely concede that the taxes I pay are probably not as high as they should be.There will always be some disparity in the earnings of those whose talents are in limited supply and in great demand, and those who lack the most valuable skill sets and cannot command higher earnings. Left unchecked, however, the disparity in the incomes of the very wealthiest and everyone else at the bottom divests the electorate of effective control over its own government, which becomes highjacked by powerful monied special interests. Freedom isn’t about keeping everything you earn pursuant to an every-man-for-himself philosophy, and progressive taxation is not theft. As Americans, we must work together for the common good of all. You can’t expect perfect equality and fairness in taxation. There will always be free riders in any society, but that doesn’t mean those of us blessed with the education, drive, and luck to succeed financially should not take on a heavier tax burden than those struggling at the bottom who need a helping hand to get ahead, if not just to keep their noses above water.I understand that you and I may disagree fundamentally on these points. I do appreciate, however, your willingness to consider thoughtfully my point of view.SWK

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 6:55 pm

to say that what the working poor need is “a helping hand” is to say they need to be given charity and shows that you are still missing the most crucial of all points: that those struggling at the bottom ARE earning their way just as much as anybody as they are making equal sacrifice to working and they are working as best they can with the gifts they got in the birth lottery which is exactly the same thing as what the surgeon is doing AHEM, but the working poor are NOT receiving equal pay for the equal sacrifice of their time and energies to working.what the working poor need is not a helping hand! what EVERY working person needs is equal pay for equal sacrifice, aka JUSTICE.GO THERE ALREADY, HUMANS. FALL IN LOVE WITH THE VIRTUE ESSENTIAL TO HAPPINESS AND SAFETY CALLED JUSTICE. NOTHING ELSE CAN SAVE YOUR BACON OR YOUR PLANET.BILLIONAIRES ARE RECEIVING SOCIETY’S PHILANTHROPY, NOT GIVING IT! START TAXING WEALTH INSTEAD OF WORK, OR LOOK YOUR CHILDREN IN THE EYE AND EXPLAIN YOURSELF.

PeterJBJune 6th, 2009 at 7:13 pm

@ blind man – an additional point arising:intellect is the alter ego of intelligence and the natural differentiated evolution of intelligenceintelligence is merely awareness of and the expression of order – local order but elegance nevertheless, but not overall elegance derived from harmonious spherical dynamics.intellect is a fixed variable threshold -ed evolution founded from energized (evoked) tacit knowledgeall that exists is information which varies in energized, and differentiated states maintained in a medium of structured charge.intellect can now be defined!ho hum

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 7:16 pm

It will take the book that I still haven’t finished for me to answer you as clearly and comprehensively as deserved…but here are two things you can do immediately. one is send me an email at payjustice@fastmail dot fm, and when i finally start sending out some form of newsletter or whatever, i’ll include you as a recipient. the other thing i cannot recommend highly enough is for you to get your hands on an exquisite, life-changing, perspective-increasing, far-better-paradigm book called “No Contest; The Case Against Competition, How We Lose In Our Race To Win”, written by the great thinker and educator Alfie Kohn. I also believe his book called “Unconditional Parenting” is an absolute life-changing godsend for all parents and all children, bar none.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 7:21 pm

hello. how do you like living on your round bomb wired to blow at a keyturn with the pressure rising fast today? does it suit you fine?

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 7:35 pm

Stopping the unjust and irrational practice of giving people pays for no work done when it is only work that creates wealth, does not take money off 99% of people – it gives 99% of people back their money that is being legally stolen now. If everybody gave up the irrational and unjust (and deadly) idea of everybody going for all they can get out of the pool of wealth, and got instead the idea of everybody going after what they contributed to the pool of wealth by their sacrifice to working, no more and no less, everyone would, just by working and saving, eventually be a millionaire – and we’d finally stop manufacturing scarcity and share in the abundance given us.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 7:49 pm

thanks. it’s good to see you, too. frankly, me an’ the book hit a roadblock and it has been at a standstill…but u know i’ll die before i give up.i want a happy planet to live on so bad i can taste it…i want the happiest possible planet i can get to live on, and i do not see any reason i should not have the thousands-times happier planet this place could easily be.be well and keep well, u.and campaign for pay justice.

Guest 67June 6th, 2009 at 8:38 pm

Guest, you are looking for a Utopia that doesn’t exist, that, to the best of my knowledge, has never existed, and , in my view, likely ever to exist. SWK makes sound, rational arguments but IMO, you don’t.I get a little tired of some of the commentary on this blog, which comes across as simple sour grapes. From individuals that have not participated in any of the upside and are extremely jealous of those that have. All this nonsense about “rights” and the expectation that things should be handed to everybody on a silver platter. It’s sickening.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 8:43 pm

you sound like a crazy communist nut. money is just fiat paper. give everyone big pay is not equality and justice. everyone impact the world economically differently, so they should be compensated differently. your crazy talk will only do one thing destroy creativity, innovation, and hard work. ultimately destroy civilization.

Guest 67June 6th, 2009 at 8:46 pm

An eloquent piece. I can’t say I disagree with your overall view. I just disagree on degree. I fully support the idea of society taking care of those that CAN’T take care of themselves. I balk at taking care of those that DON’T want to take care of themselves and are happy to take the free ride on our backs.The point about Government theft is that they take an excessive amount of our paychecks and use the money to buy the votes of others. As fewer and fewer of us remain taxpayers, we carry the burden for the growing majority that have every incentive to vote for those politicians who promise them something for nothing. Mark my words, it is not sustainable in the long term.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 10:08 pm

How many times must I repeat, and demonstrate, that my ideas and my solution have nothing to do with communism, which I have said and said has the very same unjust and catastrophic results as unlimited personal fortunes capitalism gives, before the sub-rational amongst this crowd cease espousing the same old same old redbaiting scare rhetoric, eh? Who was that man who said “When I give food to the poor they call me a Saint, but when I ask why the poor have no food they call me a communist”?And if you really truly mean that money is nothing more than fiat paper…if you really mean it that money is not your food and clean water and shelter and medicine and education and clothing and that money is not the ‘joker good’ that is good for almost ALL needs and most wants…then you won’t mind a bit if I come and steal all the money you have. Tell me that you don’t mind if I come and steal all your “nothing more than fiat paper”.I am never talking about giving everyone big pay – you are totally misunderstanding and mis-representing what I am saying. I am talking about giving everyone FAIR pay, JUST pay, equal pay for equal sacrifice, and giving no pay for no work (exempting OF COURSE those unable to work). If you judge US $200,000 dollars per year for every family with two working adults to be big pay, then you can go ahead and call that amount big pay if you want. Just keep in mind that that amount is the amount of wealth those 2 working adults working average hard are putting into the pool of wealth.And AGAIN the vital point that no one will touch is this: It takes no effort at all to come up with a repetition of the mere rationalizations for overpaying somebody, but not a soul can give the reasoning that shows it can ever be JUSTICE to force another to take underpay who is sacrificing equally of his time and energies to working and is using the poor or great gifts he got to his best capabilities.Try all you will, Humanity, but you cannot escape the fact that overpay has nowhere to come from but from underpay.Creativity, innovation, small business, markets, entrepreneurs, education…these things are being strangled by overpayunderpay, not enabled, supported, encouraged.Just consider how markets would bloom if all the people not now participating because of the lack of money were allowed to have fairpay and therefore participate.We have come to think of the virtues (and the greatest of these is pay justice) as sacrifice. They are not. They are happiness, practicality, rationality, realism, maturity, clear-seeing, self-interest.With 90% of brains too poor (on less than 100th of world-average pay) to become educated, and 90% of the educated brains we have tied up in the effects of the super-extreme pay injustice, in the military-industrial complex, universities, hospitals, government, legal system and business, we would, with pay justice, have technological progress at 100 times the present rate.We are stupidly wasting the resource that makes all the other resources of value in the first place, and that resource is: people. People are a RESOURCE, People!

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 10:15 pm

you say that without being able to point to the irrational bit, and if you can’t point to the irrational bit, it isn’t there.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 10:23 pm

Here again someone freely asserts that my arguments are not sound and rational, but they DO NOT SAY WHERE THE UNSOUND BIT IS. This is disingenuous in the extreme, and a glaring example of mental laziness. This person also attempts to totally mis-represent what I actually say: I have the POLAR OPPOSITE of “the expectation that things should be handed to everybody on a silver platter”…I say THAT is the practice that MUST BE STOPPED by stopping paying people for things that are not work.Once again, if you cannot point to the irrational bit, IT ISN’T THERE.

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 10:33 pm

There is no free ride with pay justice; pay justice STOPS the free rides. People who can but won’t work would get what probably amounts to a survival minimum, being justly entitled to that as society has stolen everyone’s birthright to a place to put their feet/live their lives sans compensation, and that is an error to be corrected for. With fairpay justice, if you work average hours at average hardnes of working, you get fairpay. if you want to work twice as hard/long, you get paid twice as much. nothing other than this is sustainable. and if you know your government has been devoured by superwealth, then you should be clamoring for pay justice so you can take your government back.

ChignosJune 6th, 2009 at 10:33 pm

No federal aid for California. Bag every bailout. Prop 13 was/is the will of the people, you want to do away with that? You sound like the judge who invalidated California’s initiative to block payments to/for illegals (which would have saved a few state bucks). Are you for any particular brand of elitism?

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 10:44 pm

“all this nonsense about rights…”Honest to God, I don’t even know how to speak to that zenith of idiocy…or is the more accurate term a zenith of ‘cowardice’?

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 10:48 pm

You get a little tired of some of the commentary on this blog, but you don’t get even a little tired of being robbed of money and safety and security and liberty and quality of life on earth and a chance to have a future by the money-tyranny??

GuestJune 6th, 2009 at 10:53 pm

People? Does it MATTER whether or not we are using rational thought to draw our conclusions? Will we get the same results using rational thought as we will get using rationalizations?

AnonymousJune 7th, 2009 at 12:46 am

Where will “they” go? If the tax is national, “they” are stuck.So what if it’s theft? That’s better than starvation and suffering. Anyway you agree to it by living or operating in this jurisdiction, so by definition it is not theft. I hope we get more of what you have, to distribute to others who deserve it more.Since you called legal taxation “theft” I think you deserve less.

GuestJune 7th, 2009 at 12:50 am

I’ve participated in plenty of the upside and avoided much of the downside. I am advocating things that would hurt my own pocketbook, though they should hurt those much wealthier, much more.I don’t mind helping others. But I want others similarly situated to (have to) help too. If they don’t have to, by and large they won’t. And that’s the opposite of utopian, it’s very realistic and faces facts. Coercion is necessary.

GuestJune 7th, 2009 at 1:17 am

It’s not easy to evaluate how hard someone works and there would be disagreements.If you and I are both shoemakers, and you are more gifted at it than I am, then according to your system I should be paid more than you if we both make the same number and quality of shoes. I worked harder than you did but how do we ascertain that, in a way you have to accept?

GuestJune 7th, 2009 at 2:01 am

There will always be a real economy, but it may be owned by a very few and the rest forced to work to the point of exhaustion, in a world where all could live fairly easy.We need methods for “picking the cat up by the tail” when we are all pressed nose-to-the-grindstone to service our debts. The debts must be subverted, by formation of alternative money systems, or barter, or inflation. Somehow it must be made possible to default on the debts, because otherwise they will condemn us to lifetime after lifetime of servitude.

GuestJune 7th, 2009 at 2:09 am

Those of us who have had the experience of working in the financial industry should not make the mistake of pasting our goodness onto others. If we are not evil ourselves (not all of us are, particularly) we have certainly had the opportunity to observe and experience the ways of pure greed.And that’s how, in a very important sense, the world works. Which is why I wanted to get into the financial biz in the first place: it’s the place of less naivete, where one is actually allowed to speak more plainly. Having done so I can probably not return to “normal” employment — I would fall foul of some PC speech restriction, quickly.

GuestJune 7th, 2009 at 2:25 am

It’s a nice thought — that fixing health care will help us out of depression — but I don’t see the cold hard logic. The current situation has two economic benefits: (1) People absolutely must work to retain health insurance, so the economy will be more productive, and (2) weaklings are weeded out and die.These are horrible things, but they are probably economically helpful, trapping people into the system even if they are not indebted. In economic terms, horrible as it is to say, I believe you have it backwards. The economy will prosper at its “full potential” as people must work and are maximally scared.Which is one reason why means must be found to dethrone the current system.

GuestJune 7th, 2009 at 5:31 am

hello mother of godHide reply Reply to this comment By Guest on 2009-06-06 19:11:12hello. how do you like living on your round bomb wired to blow at a keyturn with the pressure rising fast today? does it suit you fine?EXCELENT ! WHAT A CHALLENGE YOUR RESPONCE IS. WHAT A BEAUTIFUL SLAP IN THE FACE.mog seems to have held onto that revolutionary way that seems to have been bought and sold somewhere in the mid 70′s. Thank you mog for at least trying to wake us up. but you are facing humans most efficient dope developed for the masses. we are lost in its numbness and very comfortable no matter how things can or will fall apart. we are f%^&ing sheep but maybe sheep are now a level of consiousness above us as a whole.clone yourself mog so there are 100 of you and restart the revolution to overthrow those bastards of maybe unknowingly spreading the dope to the masses.The rich are not rich because of their own making. yes they are handed the pieces to puzzles by us but their reward should not be our surfering. REJOUS IN GATHERING A BILLION DOLLARS TO BE HANDED OUT TO THE SICK AND HUNGERY. YOU ARE OUR HERO, YOU ARE SOMEONE I WANT TO POINT TO PRIDE AND SAY TO MY KIDS “THAT HUMAN BEING IS WHAT LIVING ON THIS PLANET IS ALL ABOUT.” and as i go down the road and paint someones house who can not afford me to give them the best job. i give them the best job because that’s what living on this planet is all about. NOT KEEPING WHAT HAS PASSED YOUR WAY.

Guest 67June 7th, 2009 at 7:05 am

They will go to whatever domain is more hospitable. Their capital is already leaving. Have you noticed the deterioration in the dollar since the inauguration?Higher taxes will cause the country to lose its best and brightest people. And what will be left to bear the load.And now you want to play God? “I hope we get more of what you have, to distribute to others who deserve it more”. Wake up out there.

GuestJune 7th, 2009 at 7:12 am

I could not quite make out what he said about the $200 oil. He was saying something about commodity prices having risen too far too fast when he mentioned this. Can anyone elucidate what he said here? He also seems to be calling for inflation rather than deflation now. Quite a switch.

Guest 67June 7th, 2009 at 7:27 am

So let’s think this through. We confiscate everyone’s wealth. With that money we pay off, or attempt to pay off, the debts that the Federal Government, State Governments and municipal governments have amassed in our names. What is left, we redistribute across the citizenry of the country. (Citizenry, residents, illegal immigrants?).We then all go out to work (for whom, I don’t know because the last I heard one needs capital to run a business, stock inventory and employ people) and earn the same hourly rate, for digging a ditch, mowing a lawn, nursing someone back to health, working in a hardware store, working as a bank teller (whoops, their won’t be a need for bank tellers as there is no longer any wealth to be stored so banks will disappear).You manage your money well, provide for your family, manage to save a little that you bury in a tin can in your back yard, along with proceeds of the government windfall you received when all others wealth was seized. I’m not as prudent. I p***ed away my share of the windfall, then my hourly wage away on cigarettes, booze and gambling. I have no money to feed and house my family and I complain “it’s not fair” and come and knock on your door looking for a handout, because you still have wealth.What is so different than today?

GuestJune 7th, 2009 at 7:38 am

irrational bit? are you talking about yourself? just pay under your utopia world? not gonna work. just pay can only be achieved by free market force (no government intervention, no black magic of financial accounting, NO FED, and let bad company to fail, which all non-existence in today’s global/domestic economy) so nothing is just now, and nothing will be just under your utopia. free market is the utopia.

GuestJune 7th, 2009 at 7:42 am

I’d be interested in your comments on the demise of the auto industry. I don’t think it was the banksters and fraudsters that took them down. Clearly some seriously incompetant management but more the ridiculous wage and benefit structures that were achieved by the UAW. I’ve never been inside a car factory or seen what happens on a production line. Is the work skilled and specialised to warrant incomes higher than that for a nurse, for instance?

GuestJune 7th, 2009 at 7:45 am

From Bill Gross:”Readers who are interested in such things as the Forbes annual list of hoity-toities will have noticed that more and more of them are global, not U.S. citizens.”

Guest 67June 7th, 2009 at 7:47 am

Good to see you exasperated. Zenith of idiocy? Zenith of cowardice? Explain please.Perhaps people should start thinking less about their “rights” and more about their responsibilities as citizens.

kilgoresJune 7th, 2009 at 8:20 am

Guest @ 22:23:40Your arguments are predicated on the twin assumptions that the expenditure of time at work alone is the full measure of the value of that work, and that everyone works to the full capacity of their talents and training. From an empirical standpoint, this is not the way markets operate, and it is not the way humans behave.First, people with skills in limited supply but in high demand will always push up income for those persons, while those whose skills are more common will face lower income because there is plenty of supply to meet demand. If government were to override the market and equalize pay fully based on time expenditure alone, this would create disincentives for those will skills most in demand. Why should anyone bother investing years in a medical education and residencies, for example, if he’s going to wind up being paid the same as he would have flipping burgers? What you are proposing would create implicit inefficiencies in resources of labor and capital that free markets are adept at minimizing.Second, two people can have identical jobs, but as a previous post in this thread notes, would not necessarily put in the same effort. Again, the empirical evidence for this is indisputable. Even between two individuals performing the same task, when one is perceived by the other to be working less diligently or competently, disincentives to work bring down the higher producer to the lowest common denominator of the free rider. In the end, there is little or no production, just waste, and everyone suffers.There are my preliminary assertions as to why your arguments are not sound and rational.SWK

HayesJune 7th, 2009 at 8:51 am

a should readThe Economy Is Still at the BrinkBy SANDY B. LEWIS and WILLIAM D. COHANNew York Times: June 6, 2009″WHETHER at a fund-raising dinner for wealthy supporters in Beverly Hills, or at an Air Force base in Nevada, or at Charlie Rose’s table in New York City, President Obama is conducting an all-out campaign to try to make us feel a whole lot better about the economy as quickly as possible. “It’s safe to say we have stepped back from the brink, that there is some calm that didn’t exist before,” he told donors at the Beverly Hilton Hotel late last month.Mr. Obama thinks that the way to revive the economy is to restore confidence in it. If the mood is right, the capital will flow. But this belief is…”http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/07/opinion/07cohanWEB.html

HayesJune 7th, 2009 at 9:23 am

Black Swan Fund Makes a Big Bet on InflationWSJ By SCOTT PATTERSON

A hedge fund firm that reaped huge rewards betting against the market last year is about to open a fund premised on another wager: that the massive stimulus efforts of global governments will lead to hyperinflation.The firm, Universa Investments L.P., is known for its ties to gloomy investor Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the 2007 bestseller “The Black Swan,” which describes the impact of extreme events on the world and financial markets.Funds run by Universa, which is managed and owned by Mr. Taleb’s long-time collaborator Mark Spitznagel, last year gained more than 100% thanks to its bearish bets. Universa now runs about $6 billion, up from the $300 million it began with in January 2007. Earlier this year, Mr. Spitznagel closed several funds to new investors.Unlike last year’s sudden market implosion, inflation isn’t an unimaginable event that few currently anticipate. In fact, many fear inflation right now amid government efforts to goose the economy. Universa’s bet, however, is that inflation will reach levels few expect.By opening the inflation fund, Universa is trying to capitalize on a wave of investor demand for its products, which when they’re right can protect investors from extreme market moves.The new strategy, designed by Mr. Spitznagel, aims to post big gains if inflation and interest rates take off as they did in the 1970s. Universa will invest in options tied to commodities such as corn, crude oil and copper, as well as options on stocks such as oil drillers and gold miners.”We think these things are going to see massive volatility,” Mr. Taleb said in an interview.The fund will also bet against Treasury bonds, which tend to weaken in inflationary environments. Last week, Treasury yields shot to their highest level since November as prices fell on inflation concerns. Oil topped $66 a barrel. Gold is creeping nearing $1,000 an ounce.The minimum investment in the firm’s other funds has been $25 million, though it rarely accepted investments less than $100 million, a person familiar with the fund says. Similar standards will likely apply to the new fund, called the Black Swan Protection Protocol-Inflation, according to the person.Mr. Taleb doesn’t have an ownership interest in the Santa Monica, Calif., firm, but he has significant investments in it and helps shape its strategies.The term “black swan,” which has become a market catchphrase in the last few years, alludes to the once-widespread belief in the West that all swans are white. The notion was proven false when European explorers discovered black swans in Australia. A black-swan event, according to Mr. Taleb, is something that is extreme and highly unexpected.For the new inflation fund, there are risks.As investors, Messrs. Spitznagel and Taleb have a mixed track record. The two managers wound down their Empirica Capital fund in 2004 after several years of lackluster returns.Also, some investors are worried not about inflation but about deflation and its pernicious effects were the economy to remain stalled.David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, a Toronto wealth-management firm, believes inflation won’t take hold until consumer spending rebounds, which he thinks could take years. Says Mr. Rosenberg: “Not until the household sector expands its balance sheets are we likely to see the re-emergence of inflation on a sustained basis.”Mr. Taleb said any deflation would be matched by an aggressive move by governments to stimulate their economies, leading inevitably to an uncontrollable surge in prices.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124380234786770027.html

ChignosJune 7th, 2009 at 11:10 am

It’s not that there’s a lack of capital, it’s that there’s way too much tax/overhead/bureaucratic hassle investing it in the USA than (for example) Vietnam. MM CA posts long long missives here about “there are no jobs.” What creates jobs? Capital/entrepreneurs. Obama/Democrats could solve our nation’s economy problems in a heartbeat by making policy friendly to capital. Capital goes where it is welcome. No amount of whining over how unfair that may seem will change that fact. It is interesting that Thom Hartmann takes calls from listeners who have altogether different takes on the current situation, but Sanders and Hartmann do so because otherwise absolutely no one at all would listen to the drivel they espouse.

GirafJune 7th, 2009 at 11:10 am

I love the acronym for “Black Swan Protection Protocol-Inflation” – BS PPI, it’s a classic and, I expect, not a coincidence! Bull S*** Producer Price Index. The first two letters apply to almost all govt statistics.

Mother of GodJune 7th, 2009 at 11:36 am

A quick good morning to all yiz from Mother of God. My entire today is promised elsewhere, so my replies to comments left overnight can’t be written right now, but I wanted you to know I have read them and copied them and will speak to them. I am deeply touched and humbled – even a bit astonished – by the beautiful, soul-filled support and care for both myself and my message, I am seriously grateful also for the responses that do engage this Mother of all messages (especially thank kilgores for now…and you’re welcome for the 3 minute L curve and I hope you and others will pass it along widely) – – and – - I am laughing my skirts off at the way Guest67 persists – in spite of having already been advised of his/her errors in apprehension/comprehension – in hilarious attempts to mis-represent, as far as she/he possibly can, my ideas, my words, my goals, and my plan. I trust intelligent readers will recognize that what that person is saying stands actually in stark contradiction to what I say and believe and propose.Back later. Enjoy (the miracle that is) today, and I wish yiz well while I’m gone.This last is for blindman, so don’t anybody else read it, k?God is a real estate developerWith offices ‘round the nationThey say one day he’ll liquidateHis holdings up on highI say it’s all speculationHe may be an absentee landlordThis may be a low rent universeWell the roof may need repairsBut at least the floor is thereAnd the rent is not due ‘til the firstSo save one last dance for the SaviorWhen that final Hail Mary is saidLife is a dancehallThat’s why we’ve got all thoseLittle angels dancing ’round with pinheadsThe Lord Almighty LtdAnd his chosen electSit on the Up on High Development BoardQuoting the Bible as they hoardThe Good Book has a new look, I suspectSo save one last dance for the SaviorWhen that final Hail Mary is saidLife is a dancehallThat’s why we’ve got all thoseLittle angels dancing ’round with pinheadsMichelle Shocked, from Captain Swing (Mercury 1989) / Captain Swing (Mighty Sound 2004)[nothing but great music and lyrics on the entire album, blind seer. u wd luv it]

Guest 67June 7th, 2009 at 12:05 pm

So MoG, are you MoG or Guest? I can’t figure it out. I don’t remember responding to MoG and your writing style is quite different from the Guest with whom I’ve been exchanging.Have a good balance of your day, MoG, but please, please use the same moniker in the future so I don’t get confused. After all, as you super brains should know, it is very difficult for those of us with limited IQs to keep things in order.

kilgoresJune 7th, 2009 at 12:23 pm

From today’s New York Times Op/Ed page:Senator Tom Harkin has introduced legislation that would require exchange trading for derivatives. Representative Collin Peterson has introduced a bill that would tighten the regulation of derivatives’ clearinghouses. He acknowledges that his bill is not as strong as he would like but that Congressional politics left him no choice, telling The Times, “The banks run the place.” <——http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/07/opinion/07sun2.html?_r=1&ref=opinionWell, there’s a refreshing bit of truth from a member of Congress!Dr. Roubini continues to make the point that the measures taken by the administration so far are short of what they need to be because they are creating public debt leverage and allowing private debt leverage to continue while not getting bad assets off bank books, leaving zombie banks intact and rendering opaque the insolvency problems that remain, and by failing to reduce the underlying debt load of overburdened American homeowners by cramming down the principal balance of mortgages. All of these perceived deficiencies would appear to be calculated to placate the financial sector. As Dr. Roubini says, it remains to be seen whether the political will exists to take the additional measures needed to get the economy on the road to real recovery.SWK

11B40June 7th, 2009 at 2:15 pm

We can pontificate and spout philosophy on this board all day to no avail. It is abundantly clear that the problems are not invisible. What is lacking is ANY call to action, other than polishing up your personal survuival skills and paying off your debts.&%#$@#^%!!! This is OUR country. Let’s get off our collective asses and start doing a few little things that might just mushroom into real change – a movement if you will.Look, people. Nothing is going to change until we change the way elections are held. The financial industry, medical industry, defense industry, mega retailers, and so on can keep finding folks willing to accept their sponsoship up the political ladder. Our elected officials are a lot like NASCAR drivers who work for the prime sponsor and take on lot’s of samller sponsors along the way. If I had my way, members of Congress would be issued uniforms like the military is. Instead of badges, however, they should be required to wear patches indicating sponsorship. That way, it would be easy for the average voter to tell where each elected official has pledged their loyalty. In fact, the patches should be sized according to the percentage of their campaign funds coming from each industry represented.Now, of course I realize this idea will never happen, but I do believe it is worth discussing and promoting because it illustrates the point in a way that most people can quickly grasp, setting the stage for the real meat of the issue that EVERYONE needs to have pounded into their heads – “SPECIAL INTERESTS” ARE BY DEFINITION HARMFUL TO THE GENERAL INTERESTS!!!So, why do we allow them so much influence? The only reason is the huge amounts of money they use to bribe our lawmakers with, in my humble opinion. If we are to save ourselves and the future of America for coming generations, we MUST change this, and here is how it can be done. Start a movement that demands – DEMANDS! – that only registered voters be allowed to make campaign contributions. It is that simple, folks. This is how we get a new and better class of people running for elected office. The situation today is vile, with vested interests running everything by tossing out bags of money to the candidates willing to tow their line, while the truly good candidate gets steamrolled. The quality of person willing to subject themself into the pocess as it stands today is more often than not the very type of person we need least. Get the corporate money, union money, and PAC money of of this and suddenly a Senate race will cost $250,000 intstead of $14,000,000.How about some serious discussion about potential solutions on this board?Independent Contractor

MorbidJune 7th, 2009 at 2:26 pm

Schwarzenegger suggests state consider Flat Tax of 15%I guess he is trying to beat the ObamaNation of Desolation to the punch. “Get yours” before the Feds weigh in. Fasten your seat belts folks – this is just the start.Just to put this in perspective as a retired couple we currently pay about 4% CA State Tax on our Gross Adjusted Income. That means instead of $2,000 per year we would be paying over $8,000 a year! That ought to drive out all the illegal aliens as well as us. Of course we would have to mail back the keys to the bank as the house is underwater at this point.Where is MM CA – this ought to be up her alley.

kilgoresJune 7th, 2009 at 4:17 pm

>Instead of badges, however, they should be required to wear patches indicating sponsorship. That way, it would be easy for the average voter to tell where each elected official has pledged their loyalty. In fact, the patches should be sized according to the percentage of their campaign funds coming from each industry represented.This has to be one of the most refreshing and useful ideas I’ve heard in some time!SWK

GuestJune 7th, 2009 at 4:25 pm

PeteCA Obama was in saudi arabia as well . was his saudi visit and his speech in cairo meant to ensure that petro dollars find their way to treasuries?

GuestJune 7th, 2009 at 4:34 pm

Something like that already exists. It is why employers ask their employees to donate to the employer’s preferred candidate. By the way, since the contribution is publicly reported, the employer can check up and see that his instructions were followed.Nice.Capitalizing words like MUST and DEMAND don’t get the job done. The political system is beyond fixing; a “real” solution like debt default is needed. And you are probably a troll sent here to interrupt the discussion.

GuestJune 7th, 2009 at 4:37 pm

This pay discussion is dumb. Pay follows the law of supply and demand. If one have skills high in demand and low in supply he will get more pay simple as that all the rest is meaningless. ( manipulations are present but that is a legal issue rather than social one).

AnonymousJune 7th, 2009 at 4:41 pm

Sure, I’ll have as much influence as I can. If you consider it playing God, then you just wish I had less influence. :) The dollar needs to depreciate so we can de-facto default on our debts. Otherwise we will be crushed by those debts, our lives ruined for generations.

GuestJune 7th, 2009 at 4:49 pm

Guest67 you are overlooking that much of those debts are NOT owed to ourselves but to outsiders, such as private banking corporations and foreign companies and governments. Those are the debts that will crush us for generations if we are forced to pay them off at what someone else decides is “full value”. No, we need a Jubilee, and can make it ourselves. Default — what more authority do we need than the Holy Bible?

PeterJBJune 7th, 2009 at 5:40 pm

intelligence (fem.) – supin mode – is innate to the animal kingdom and, indeed, must be, appears to be, innate to all life (universal – including the parochials); intellect (masc.)needs to be acquired (potential – kinetic) and appears to be only yet available to man (on Earth). Interestingly, The supin mode is a grammatical category of words that is in between the noun and the verb, referred to as “noun form of a verb”, or “noun origin of a verb”; it usually expresses some kind of intent, and is used with a mouvement verb. In English, it seems to correspond to the “full-infinitive”, where the particle to precedes the verb at the infinitive form.Considering the above, it is clear that robotics can/will easily and naturally develop intelligence and possibly even intellect (Google – or similar) may lead the race once they realize that heuristic algorithmic programming can be extended fairly easily and * naturally *.There are no neurological seats of intelligence or intellect. Memory is the key factor that could possibly outstrip humans in their race with machines to Universal supremacy. Of course, humans have the capacity of complicity, which will be slightly difficult, but not impossible, for the robot.The human “ësprit” is another matter but once comprehension is reached and the return enfolds, anything could happen – very exciting.Ho hum

11B40June 7th, 2009 at 5:47 pm

Something like “what” already exists? One of us must have a problem with comprehension.Obviously, capitalizing words got YOUR attention. It may not solve anything, but neither does mental masturbation – especially if there are no fireworks at the end.If the politiacal system is beyond fixing (and it may well be), we are truly screwed, and we have done it to ourselves. Under this Constitutional Republic of ours, we have the power to make changes, but it takes effort and willpower. Adopt this simple mantra – only voters can make contributions. Spread the word. Open the discussion. Start a movement….DO something….or not. Just sit on your ass, remain anonymous, point fingers, and call other people names. Troll. Isn’t that funny. Offer a call to action and get accused of “interrupting” the discussion. Well, yeah, I guess effort does get in the way of pontification.Oh, and by the way, who says trying to clean up the political system is mutually exclusive with other actions. Debt default is another subject to be argued on it’s own merits. Got any ideas of your own about how to accomplish that, “Guest”?Independent Contractor

11B40June 7th, 2009 at 6:02 pm

@hlowe & SWKThank you for the encouragement. I have been reading this blog of a few months, as time permits, and have made a few comments along the way posting as ‘Guest, Also’. There are some things I want to say from time to time, so decided to adopt a permanent moniker. I very much appreciate the posts I read from both of you, along with many others, and feel I get a lot from the site in the way of continuing education. I am not an economist or financial maven, but I have run a small business and made a payroll for over 30 years. Perhaps I can make some samll contributions to the group along the way. I hope so.Independent Contrator

PeterJBJune 7th, 2009 at 6:06 pm

Error Alert: Apologies – it is early and cold here.is intelegence acquired or born with?@ Guest on 2009-06-07 04:49:01intelligence (fem.) – is innate to the animal kingdom and, indeed, must be, appears to be, innate to all life (universal – including the parochials). This relationship appears to be Universal as it is a Principle see in all things and therefore cannot be excluded from its own composition and organization and multiple re-organizations, coagulations, preferences, etc., and nature. I accept then, that intelligence is merely the arrangement of information (elegant). Intelligence is the source of technology – not science (physics) [eg seals and monkeys, et al do technologies, er, also)intellect – supin mode -(masc.) needs to be acquired (potential – kinetic) and appears to be only yet available to man (on Earth). Interestingly, The supin mode is a grammatical category of words that is in between the noun and the verb, referred to as “noun form of a verb”, or “noun origin of a verb”; it usually expresses some kind of intent, and is used with a mouvement verb. In English, it seems to correspond to the “full-infinitive”, where the particle to precedes the verb at the infinitive form. Intellect does physics by dealing with the whole.Considering the above, it is clear that robotics can/will easily and naturally develop intelligence and possibly even intellect (Google – or similar) may lead the race once they realize that heuristic algorithmic programming can be extended fairly easily and * naturally *.There are no neurological seats of intelligence or intellect. Memory is the key factor that could possibly outstrip humans in their race with machines to Universal supremacy. Of course, humans have the capacity of complicity, which will be slightly difficult, but not impossible, for the robot.The human “ësprit” is another matter but once comprehension is reached and the return enfolds, anything could happen – very exciting.Ho hum

Guest 67June 7th, 2009 at 8:33 pm

It seems like a mountain to overcome but by starting with some small steps, maybe we can get there. Well done for getting the ball rolling.

kilgoresJune 7th, 2009 at 9:01 pm

Justice Scalia is famous for his pontifications against the notion of the Constitution as a living document and in support of the doctrines of textualism (looking strictly to the language as expressly set forth in a legal document) and originalism (attempting to discern the original intent of the authors of a legal document in using certain language). Unfortunately, it is difficult to maintain purity of such an ideology in the real world of jurisprudence. Like a fundamentalist who strictly construes Biblical verse only when it comports with a pre-established paradigm of reality, Justice Scalia conveniently sidesteps strict construction of the Constitution when it doesn’t suit him.For example, in White v. Illinois, 502 U.S. 346 (1992), Justice Scalia did not hesitate to turn to sources outside the express language of the Constitution in order to construe its meaning. Likewise, in District of Columbia v. Heller, 554 U.S. ___ (2008), the case in which the Court construed the Second Amendment to establish a personal right to bear arms, Justice Scalia did not confine himself to determining the original intent of the Constitution based on its language, but justified the majority decision, in part, by reference to a historical tradition of gun ownership in the United States and the fact that Americans favor hand guns for self-defense, i.e., he treated the Constitution as a living document, interpreting its text in light of his perception of contemporaneous standards, the very approach he condemns in this video.Perhaps the most egregious instance of the inconsistency in Judge Scalia’s positions can be found in Bush v. Gore, 531 U.S. 98 (2000), in which he abandoned his own well-developed “strict constructionist” approach to the Equal Protection Clause, as well as the Political Question Doctrine, to invalidate the method of recounting ballots sanctioned by the Florida Supreme Court and put President Bush in the White House. Where in the Constitution are handguns mentioned? What is the textual basis for interpreting the original intent of the drafters of the Constitution as encompassing a restriction on the means by which state and federal governments may regulate civilian uses of firearms in light of the “well-regulated militia” language of the Second Amendment?Here’s a classic quote of Justice Scalia, from McConnell v. Federal Election Commission, 540 U.S. 93 (2003):”The incremental benefit obtained by muzzling corporate speech is more than offset by loss of the information and persuasion that corporate speech can contain.”Where in the Constitution is the right of non-natural persons, such as corporations, to freedom of speech recognized? What happened to Justice Scalia’s original intent doctrine in this case? It was conveniently sidestepped, with the result of strengthening the power of monied special interests to subvert the underpinnings of our democratic republic by diluting the power of voting citizens, the REAL people that the Constitution is clearly supposed to protect.Clearly, Justice Scalia himself does not hesitate to abrogate the principles of constitutional construction he routinely advocates as a bulwark against misuse of judicial power. Don’t fool yourself: Justice Scalia is a quintessential example of a judicial activist who claims the Constitution is static (“dead”) but interprets it dynamically (i.e., as a “living” document).SWK

kilgoresJune 7th, 2009 at 9:04 pm

Sorry, bad editing on my part. The last two sentences of the third paragraph of my post should have been appended to the end of the second paragraph.SWK

HayesJune 7th, 2009 at 9:21 pm

Larry Summers weighed in on this topic in 2005http://www.president.harvard.edu/speeches/summers_2005/nber.php”There are three broad hypotheses about the sources of the very substantial disparities that this conference’s papers document and have been documented before with respect to the presence of women in high-end scientific professions. One is what I would call the-I’ll explain each of these in a few moments and comment on how important I think they are-the first is what I call the high-powered job hypothesis. The second is what I would call different availability of aptitude at the high end, and the third is what I would call different socialization and patterns of discrimination in a search. And in my own view, their importance probably ranks in exactly the order that I just described….It does appear that on many, many different human attributes-height, weight, propensity for criminality, overall IQ, mathematical ability, scientific ability-there is relatively clear evidence that whatever the difference in means-which can be debated-there is a difference in the standard deviation, and variability of a male and a female population.”

blindmanJune 7th, 2009 at 9:47 pm

pjb,”..we are very adaptive but why must this change be imposed?”.this change is imposed because it is justice. or just rewards…????.from early on in the program, code, the energy sourcefor physical life and evolution was prior life forms,their biochemistry or at a point, parts. our physicalbodies are colonies of trillions of communal lifeforms “working”, living, feeding etc. in varyingmusical states, together centered about the energeticattachments, transfers, translations. the intellect,as you say, is implied by the manifest gender dimorphismassociated with the parochial but emergent, and i suspect,appreciated only in rare instances. times of need for themany or times of needed of inspiration or curiosity for the few.?consider… “our” bodies, cellular communities composedof and sustained by thousands of “distinct” species arethe robots inhabited by emerging potentially intellectualnon entities impersonating animals. or maybe we are just”hairless” apes with a wider variety of imaginative skillsthat frequently backfire and make us look dumber than apes?i think it’s a toss up?when i read about teenagers dying in auto accidents oron battle fields i think along the lines of the imaginative”skills”.but what is clear is that emergentphenomena require prior development that supports and makespossible the emergent……”..But eventually, the spiral reaches the similar positionin repetition BUT at a different plane. This is termeddifferentiation or maturity, if you prefer..So, we may think that we are in control of our situation,but we are not: we are in autoplay transiting throughchaos – or phase transition towards a new order.”.”we”, the emergent, have to reconstitute. as “we”do not know what we are or what it is that sustainsor supports our emergence as human being..if i, or we, do not define self, someone else willand i, or we, will surely be dissatisfied withthat uninformed, passionless ignorant definition.it has happened before, so much so as to be the”rule”, almost. excepting pjb.. apologies, limited capacity to deal with full content.rich and challenging reading as always requiringrepeated consideration.peas.ps.’here comes “my” 19th nervous breakdown.’stones….and a two-fer..for mog et al, glad to read you again….due to the length of this thread i offer this with little or no guilt,pss. it is very beautiful besides.. not to be missed i say.Tom Waits – NirvanaAlbum: Orphans: BastardsYear: 2006:Not much chance, completely cut loose from purpose,he was a young man riding a bus through North Carolina on the way to somewhere.And it began to snow.And the bus stopped at a little cafe in the hills and the passengers entered.And he sat at the counter with the others, and he ordered, the food arrived.And the meal was particularly good.And the coffee.The waitress was unlike the women he had known.She was unaffected, and there was a natural humor which came from her.And the fry cook said crazy things.And the dishwasher in back laughed a good clean pleasant laugh.And the young man watched the snow through the window.And he wanted to stay in that cafe forever.The curious feeling swam through him that everything was beautiful there.And it would always stay beautiful there.And then the bus driver told the passengers that it was time to board.And the young man thought: “I’ll just stay here, I’ll just stay here.”And then he rose and he followed the others into the bus.He found his seat and looked at the cafe through the window.And then the bus moved off, down a curve, downward, out of the hills.And the young man looked straight forward.And he heard the other passengers speaking of other things,or they were reading or trying to sleep.And they hadn’t noticed the magic.And the young man put his head to one side,closed his eyes, and pretended to sleep.There was nothing else to do,just to listen to the sound of the engine,and the sound of the tiresin the snow .

Average JaneJune 7th, 2009 at 10:59 pm

SWK, dear, your legal briefs are showing ;) A superb critique of Justice Scalia. I am a novice at constitutional law but find it the most fascinating legal subject by far (and with 30 years as a legal assistant, I’ve pretty much seen it all). I’d go to law school just to be able to clerk for a constitutional lawyer, but am too old now, so I must settle for reading the writings of those far more educated than I. Many thanks.

Average JaneJune 7th, 2009 at 11:03 pm

Do you know, I don’t think anyone on this very long comment section has remarked on Professor Roubini’s statement above that this financial debacle was a “white swan” event rather than a “black swan” event.Any takers?

The AlarmistJune 8th, 2009 at 3:39 am

Perhaps the best skill I took away from the military was the ability to type 70+ wpm. I took office temp jobs while going to college, and one of those led to a job with an investment bank that after a few years led to a job in portfolio management. Go figure.If you aren’t in the Ivies, your money spent at most US colleges is, despite all the positive press about the positive returns of university education, most likely going to provide a negative NPV. Looked at from that perspective, you bet your kids should take jobs to fund their own way. Haven’t you had enough money-losing investments already?I would encourage your kids to temp before flipping burgers, but either alternative is honest work that might actually lead to something.

The AlarmistJune 8th, 2009 at 3:42 am

Gee, sounds like he should securitise his mortgage and then have the treasury buy it with TARP proceeds.

The AlarmistJune 8th, 2009 at 4:54 am

Every once in a while I would go back to the US to visit friends and family, and I would come across an old school friend who was making $70k per year. We would chat in front of his $450k house, usually right in front of his $70k Hummer, and he would more often than not be holding a $4.50 cup of something from Starbucks.Then I would go flying and see hundreds of McMansions with several expensive vehicles in front of each housing thousands of people just like him.This was so foreseeable that it was painful to watch it pan out.What is truly remarkable, however, is to hear that people are shocked that lenders are now asking for 20% down, as if that is some great imposition. Gee, that was the minimum I had to put down for my condo in NYC about 16 years ago.And then I read that FHA (can you say ‘sub-prime’, amigo?) tells people they can buy a house with as little as 3.5% down. And Treasury is all over the “affordable housing” thing too. Not by insisting that people buy houses they can actually afford, rather by twisting the arms of financial institutions to keep pumping out loans.The white swan we all know is in the room is the rapid evolution of the 20th century US into the 21st century version of 19th century Argentina morphing into 20th century Argentina.How’s that Hopey-Changey thing working out for you?

MorbidJune 8th, 2009 at 5:12 am

There are no neurological seats of intelligence or intellect. Memory is the key factor that could possibly outstrip humans in their race with machines to Universal supremacy.

Really! Where did you read that? I thought neurons play a vital role in memory and intelligence.

MorbidJune 8th, 2009 at 6:05 am

Anything To Tax and SpendSince computer models cannot predict our daily weather patterns I find it unfathomable that 100 year predictions are being made to inform us how man-made global warming is responsible for climate change.ICCC Three Brings Climate Reality To Washington DC (June 2009)

Lindzen explained why the process behind the U.N’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) claim of man’s responsibility for the warming since 1954 is “an embarrassment.” First they created a number of models which could not “reasonably simulate known patterns of natural behavior (such as El Niño (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)), claiming that such models nonetheless accurately depicted natural internal climate variability.” Then, when those models failed to replicate the warming episode from the mid seventies through the mid nineties, they proclaimed it proof that “forcing was necessary and that the forcing must have been due to man.” And they relied upon those same “existing poorly performing models” which are fraught with “errors in the feedback factors” to make their argument that “sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 could be anything from 1.5 to 5°C based on the claimed range of results from different models.”What we see, then, concludes Lindzen, is that the very foundation of the issue of global warming is wrong.S. Fred Singer added that once you recognize that we’re dealing with natural and not human forces all the to-do about this is nonsense. Attempts to mitigate CO2 — which is not a pollutant – are pointless, very expensive and completely ineffective. They’ll have no effect on the climate and in fact will have little effect on the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.Lung Cancer does not cause smoking (CO2 is not a pollutant).

Plongka10June 8th, 2009 at 6:10 am

Yes, I agree with all of your second paragraph. But with regards to resistance – resistance to any construct will only succeed in identifying and reinforcing the construct. Resistance implies force against something; in a way it legitimises what you are resisting. Better not to resist and validate the paradigm; better, in my view, to construct a new paradigm.Nice discussion, BTW.

GuestJune 8th, 2009 at 6:22 am

Coming: A 3rd wave of foreclosureshttp://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/coming-a-3rd-wave-of-foreclosures.aspx?ref=patrick.net

GuestJune 8th, 2009 at 6:24 am

The Economy Is Still at the BrinkPublished: June 7, 2009WHETHER at a fund-raising dinner for wealthy supporters in Beverly Hills, or at an Air Force base in Nevada, or at Charlie Rose’s table in New York City, President Obama is conducting an all-out campaign to try to make us feel a whole lot better about the economy as quickly as possible. “It’s safe to say we have stepped back from the brink, that there is some calm that didn’t exist before,” he told donors at the Beverly Hilton Hotel late last month.Skip to next paragraphEnlarge This ImageRelatedTimes Topics: Credit Crisis — The EssentialsMr. Obama thinks that the way to revive the economy is to restore confidence in it. If the mood is right, the capital will flow. But this belief is dangerously misguided. We are sympathetic to the extraordinary challenge the president faces, but if we’ve learned anything at all two years into the worst financial crisis of our lifetimes, it is that a capital-markets system this dependent on public confidence is a shockingly inadequate foundation upon which to rest our economy.We have both spent large chunks of our lives working on Wall Street, absorbing its ethic and mores. We’re concerned that nothing has really been fixed. We’re doubly concerned that people appear to feel the worst of the storm is over — and in this, they are aided and abetted by a hugely popular and charismatic president and by the fact that the Dow has increased by 35 percent or so since Mr. Obama started to lay out his economic plans in March. But wishing for improvement and managing by the Dow’s swings are a fool’s game. (Disclosure: One of us, Mr. Lewis, was convicted on federal charges of stock manipulation in 1989, pardoned by President Bill Clinton in 2001 and had his lifetime trading ban overturned by the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2006; documents relating to the case can be found at sblewis.net.)The storm is not over, not by a long shot. Huge structural flaws remain in the architecture of our financial system, and many of the fixes that the Obama administration has proposed will do little to address them and may make them worse. At another fund-raising event, for Senator Harry Reid, President Obama said: “We didn’t ask for the challenges that we face. But we are determined to answer the call to meet those challenges, to cast aside the old arguments and overcome the stubborn divisions and move forward as one people and one nation …. It will take time but I promise you, I promise you, I’ll always tell you the truth about the challenges we face.”more”:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/07/opinion/07cohanWEB.html?_r=1

11B40June 8th, 2009 at 8:09 am

@SWK…you appreciated my simple suggestion that we require members of Congress to wear emblemns of sponsorship denoting their major sources of campaign funds, i.e., showing the world where their loyalties really were pledged. YOu noted above the following:”Here’s a classic quote of Justice Scalia, from McConnell v. Federal Election Commission, 540 U.S. 93 (2003):”The incremental benefit obtained by muzzling corporate speech is more than offset by loss of the information and persuasion that corporate speech can contain.”"Is this the case that essentially said money is speech?I believe this gets straight to the heart of the matter. It is all about money, and it is all about giving ‘corporations’ equal LEGAL rights with individual citizens. This is insane, and ultimnately leads to where we are today. What constitutional basis is there for this?As a simple man (some may say simpleton), I also have some opinion about writing laws. I have long held the belief that when a law is drafted there should be an introductory paragraph about why this law is needed, what the intent is, and what is expected to be accomplished with it’s passing. The only reasons our laws tend to be so ambiguous that I can figure is so that lawyers (the primary bill writers) and their clients can game the system for personal reward. Am I wrong?Independent Contractor

kilgoresJune 8th, 2009 at 9:13 am

In Santa Clara County v. Southern Pacific Railroad Company, 118 U.S. 394 (1886), the U.S. Supreme Court, without any real basis in case law precedent or in the text of the Constitution, determined for the first time that corporations, as non-natural legal persons, have the right to due process under the Fourteenth Amendment (now THAT was judicial ACTIVISM). Over the last 123 years, the courts have progressively recognized an ever-greater scope of rights under the Constitution as benefitting corporations, including limited rights of free speech (see First National Bank of Boston v. Bellotti, 435 U.S. 765 (1978), where in a 5-4 decision the Supreme Court ruled that that corporations have a First Amendment right to make contributions in order to attempt to influence political processes). For a good historical overview through 1933 of how the law on corporations has evolved, you can read the dissent of Justice Brandeis in Louis K. Liggett Co. v. Lee, 288 U.S. 517 (1933). For a timeline of cases expanding corporate personhood, go to http://www.ratical.org/corporations/ToPRaP.html.As for writing laws, the problem is that legislation is written to cover a broad range of fact patterns, and the intent with respect to a given set of circumstances is not always crystal clear from the express language of the legislation itself. It is the job of courts to construe the law in these non-bright-line cases, and judges are often accused of being “activists” simply for doing their job. The courts do often look to recorded legislative histories behind given legislation — e.g., speeches by legislators and commentary submitted during debate — to help inform their decisions in close cases.SWK

AGolferJune 8th, 2009 at 9:41 am

Perhaps he has been kidnapped by the PTB. NR – a tap on the I’m Alive button would be nice.

MorbidJune 8th, 2009 at 9:51 am

Can’t We All Just Get Along?A comment made by Rodney King in the aftermath of his police brutality lawsuit. It seems to be Obi’s HOPIUM coated lollypops message he would like everyone to suck on. If life was this simple the world would have greened a Golden Age a long time ago.

PeterJBJune 8th, 2009 at 4:22 pm

Can I also assume that you thought that you had taxation through representation and that your political classrepresented the people?Yes, really.Ho hum

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