Video of a talk on “The Failure to Predict Financial Crises and Recessions”
I recently gave a talk at a conference organized by the Perimeter Institute (a leading theoretical physics research institution in Canada) on Economic Crisis and the Implications to the Science of Economics
The topic of my talk was “The Failure to Predict Financial Crises and Recessions”.
The video of such a talk (all 51 minutes of it) is now available online at this link. The talk is a bit wonky and academic and high brow; but it provides some useful insight on why most failed to predict this crisis and what are the lessons for the economic profession. Actually the economic literature is full of theoretical and empirical studies of financial crises (debt crisis, sovereign debt crises, systemic banking crises, currency crises, systemic household and corporate debt crises, asset and credit boom/bubbles and bust/crashes) and systemic risk. Thus, connecting this analytical and empirical literature to a careful analysis of the data would have suggested that the worst financial crisis and economic crisis since the Great Depression was not a “Black Swan” event but rather a “White Swan” event, i.e. it was not a random drawing from a distribution of events with a fat tail but actually predictable in advance given the rising macro and financial risks and vulnerabilities.
As I have argued before on this blog there were many economists, thinkers and analysts that actually predicted early on many risks and vulnerabilities that would have led to a crisis:
“there were a small but significant number of economists, thinkers and analysts who – early on – predicted many of the risks and vulnerabilities that eventually led to this crisis. In many ways I simply connected the dot in these different strands of thinking and warnings.
Among a few others Robert Shiller was one of the earliest ones to study in detail and warn about a housing bubble; Kenneth Rogoff and a few other economists warned early on about the unsustainability of the US current account deficits and of the global imbalances; Raghu Rajan presented one of the earliest and sharpest analyses of the agency problems and incentive distortions deriving from compensation schemes in financial institutions; Nassim Taleb and a few other finance scholars stressed the risk of fat tail extreme events in financial markets; Paul Krugman – who received his Nobel for his trade contributions – was the father of currency and financial crisis theories in international macro as at least three generations of currency crisis models were developed from his seminal work; Stephen Roach, David Rosenberg and a few other financial sector analysts warned about the shopped-out, saving-less, bubble-addict and debt-burdened US consumer ; Niall Ferguson provided vivid comparisons between historical episodes of financial crises and current vulnerabilities; Hyun Shin and other scholars in academia provided early modeling of illiquidity and of the perverse effects of leverage during asset bubbles; William White and his colleagues at the BIS were among the first – following the scholarship of Hyman Minsky – to analyze how the “Great Moderation” may paradoxically lead to “Financial Instability”, asset and credit bubbles and financial crises; Gillian Tett and a few other journalists at the Financial Times provided early clear explanations of the arcane complexity of credit derivatives and structured finance and of the systemic risks deriving from these new exotic financial instruments; dozen of serious and deep thinking scholars in academia modeled analytically – and tested empirically – the various aspects of systemic financial crises and the interactions between currency crises, systemic banking crises, systemic corporate and household debt crises and sovereign debt crises.
Given the important work done by these and other scholars and thinkers it was certainly easier for me to connect the analytically and empirical dots and warn early on in the middle of 2006 about the incoming economic and financial tsunami. It is important to recognize that a small but significant number of thinkers were willing to think outside the box and were aware of many risks and vulnerabilities. These thinkers – like myself – were not Dr. Dooms; they were rather Dr. Realists, analytically rigorous and intellectually honest and willing to engage in critical thinking rather than follow the herd of the easy consensus.”
The same eclectic and realistic analytical approach – that uses theory, statistical analysis, empirical evidence, data and circumstantial evidence and that connects the macro analysis to the analysis of the financial system – is most useful to predict if/when the Great Recession will bottom out and whether the economic recovery will be robust or weak and below potential growth.
At this point, leaving aside some analysts that still see a significant risk of a “depression” or “near depression” the difference between the consensus optimists (who see the Great Recession being over by mid-year (June 2009)) and those that are – like myself – more bearish (and predicted that the recession would last about 24 months and would thus be over by the end of 2009 or early 2010) is only two quarters or so; and even on this point the optimist who saw the bottom being at mid-year are becoming more cautious as the latest batch of US and global macro data has been – at best – mixed. The more relevant issue now is rather whether the recovery – once we reach the bottom – is going to be strong and robust with rapid return to potential growth – as the consensus is currently arguing – or whether the US and other advanced economies will experience a period of at least two years of sub-part below trend growth as the debt overhang of households, financial institutions, corporate firms and governments will lead to less borrowing and lending and less spending (consumption, residential investment, capex spending) growth than in the boom high growth years. I have recently argued in some detail ten reasons why the recovery is going to be below potential.
740 Responses to “Video of a talk on “The Failure to Predict Financial Crises and Recessions””
Guest • June 1st, 2009 at 9:28 pm
I think that why we failed to predict dicussion should be behind us and focus should be on problems ahead.
Rip T • June 1st, 2009 at 9:29 pm
First !!
Guest • June 1st, 2009 at 9:33 pm
“debt overhang of households, financial institutions, corporate firms and governments will lead to less borrowing and lending and less spending (consumption, residential investment, capex spending) growth than in the boom high growth years”We are once more looking for that growth without addressing amediate problems the us faces in selling treasuries.
Guest • June 1st, 2009 at 9:36 pm
In Monday trading, one pound was worth $1.6433, its strongest position since early November last year.The euro was also up against the dollar, with one euro worth $1.4246 at one point, a six-month high.The dollar has fallen on signs the global economy is improving. This makes currency traders more confident to switch to higher-yielding currencies.http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8076713.stm
Guest • June 1st, 2009 at 9:38 pm
In a speech at Beijing University at the start of his two-day visit, Mr Geithner reassured his Chinese hosts that they need not worry about the estimated $770bn (£475bn) they have invested in US treasuries, a class of US government debt.”Chinese financial assets are very safe,” he said, drawing laughter from the audiencehttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8076642.stm
PeteCA • June 1st, 2009 at 10:33 pm
Earlier quote by Hayes on this forum …”the following speaks for itself and speaks volumes (note the comment I have highlighted from this short article)Meet GM’s Dismantler: Brian Deesehttp://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/meet-gms-dismantler-brian-deese/”au6553 :June 1st, 2009 at 12:28 pmYou’re not reading closely enough. He isn’t a lawyer, because he never even finished law school, much less passed a state bar.To keep score – he’s not an economist, is not an expert on bankruptcy, hasn’t bothered to finish his law degree, doesn’t have an mba, and has no background in the auto industry. This is positively stunning.”I second that opinion.I read the article about Brian Deese … and my jaw dropped wide open. Maybe this is an example of the full employment policy that Obama is aiming at. Maybe not many people from Yale want to take the challenging job of changing light bulbs in manufacturing plants. But to put a grad student in charge of the reorganization of GM …SAY WHAT ??????????Come to think of it, if the guy needs a job then why not put him in the state legislature of California. He can’t possibly do worse than the politicians we’ve already got. At least I wouldn’t be worried about that assignment.PeteCA
淫人妻女奪其財 • June 1st, 2009 at 11:27 pm
在美国現實世界中,经济学只不過是閒話.克魯明話美政府的放任貨幣政策已帶美國走向復甦.如果這是真話,這亦是笑話!
Anonymous • June 2nd, 2009 at 1:04 am
Dear Sir,I cannot understand the point you make. The economy could certainly rebound in a modest way and avoid a depression. Good news. But I do not buy into any argumentation about long term recovery.Building a money-conscious US economy will take certainly more than a couple of additional trimesters. Building a more decent monetary system – hence an acceptable framework for globalization – is currently just of reach.Apart from a limited change in the US consumer behavior – and certainly to short to have long term impact – what allows anyone to prognosticate better times.
Little Saver • June 2nd, 2009 at 1:12 am
To prevent new problems ahead, it is extremely important to understand why the “concensus” always fails to see the problems coming.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 3:17 am
might be the perfect time, while everyone is focusing on green shoots, etc., while maybe failing to predict what’s ahead, or accurately see what’s really going on now.
CLake • June 2nd, 2009 at 5:01 am
Amazing how the word “improving” systematically replaces “deteriorating less quickly”…Are there signs that the global economy is improving ? Or that it is deteriorating less quickly ?
MM CA • June 2nd, 2009 at 7:30 am
Just paid 3.02 a gallon for gas in Calif… Go back to this time last year and the rise in gas soon led to the Septembet meltdown… People stoped paying thier mortgages and bills so they could put gas in thier cars… As gas prices go so will the next big downturn in the economy… its the same game being played out…this time the fundamentals are even worse, thier is less credit for people to charge thier gas… only good news is thier are elss drivers because thier are NO JOBS! No JOBS equals NO RECOVERY anytime soon… I still fail to see with Job growth will come from… With recent data indcicating that FED and State Tax revenues are falling off a cliff and in major decline it is only a matter of time before Gov’t layoffs occur accross all sectors and that was the only part of the job market that was holding…I went to two malls yesterday, both were 25-35% vacant, traffic lite and prices high on everyhting. Went to lids to by an offical NY Yankee ball cap, the guy found it, rang it up and when he said 37.99 i almost choked and said no thanks.. then went to macy to purcahse a pair of loafers, on sale price was 79.99 i said no thanks. now it had been about a year since i went shopping and i could not believe the price increases… a pair of Levis’ 501 in Sears was on sale for 39.99 -lol. looks lile prices going up for those that can or want to pay them… these stores are doomed with this philosphy. and it wasnt that i could nto afford this stuff… jsut decided i didnt need it enough and will find it online cheaper.Folks – this a lull in the storm, the data , numbers, fundamentals are worse then ever…
JGU • June 2nd, 2009 at 8:06 am
Is the banking system still insolvent, dear professor? Will the stock market be closed to prevent a meltdown? Will the March low hold in the next leg down? What does your crystal ball tell you, my good professor? Thanks for any answer.
FEDup • June 2nd, 2009 at 8:16 am
agree! The retailers (who are left or barely hanging on) cannot continue with huge sales and “loss leaders” to get customers in the door without selling their other merchandise at a profit. As more and more people adopt the “McWalmart” mentality (eat at McDonalds, shop at Walmart) a domino effect of failing manufacturers, retailers, malls and increased unemployment will extend and most likely worsen this recession. And the auto industry-don’t get me started!
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 8:27 am
yes, you are correct.
Plongka10 • June 2nd, 2009 at 8:34 am
But I thought all you guys NEEDED a pick-up for your huntin’ shootin’ and fishin’ trips at the weekend when you went up to the cabin by the lake?Sorry – it’s too easy taking shots from the other side of the pond. Beleive me when I say we are all living in pain. However, as a parting shot (!) may I suggest that y’all come back and moan about your gas prices when they reach $7 a gallon which is what we pay in Europe. Hey – that could be a great revenue generator for your Guvmint!
MM CA • June 2nd, 2009 at 8:42 am
with all the problems in the US these days, 7.00 a gallon for gas in the USwould seal the fate for all the economies in the world. the US system would collapse and everyone else would follow…
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 8:48 am
NOT!!!
PeteCA • June 2nd, 2009 at 8:48 am
Think there might be a reason why GM is ditching their Hummer plant?
PeteCA
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 8:56 am
5.5% mortages and 3+ dollar gas is not a formula for recovery. Where are the jobs going to come from, when everybody is spending more on gas??This inflationary bubble into commodities only helps perceptions for bank stock purchases. Now that GM is in bankruptcy, the new mantra is “WHAT IS GOOD FOR GOLDMAN SACHS IS GOOD FOR AMERICA”.Unfortunately, jobs don’t fit in to this vision.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 9:02 am
Nobel-winning economist Clive Granger dies at 74
ha ha • June 2nd, 2009 at 9:35 am
hee hee
Michelle • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:22 am
Interesting prices. I went shopping yesterday at Fred Meyer and bought two very nice girls dresses that were not only marked down 50%, but were also buy one get one free, and I received an additional 15% off with in-store coupon. In all, I bought 4 dresses and two pairs of girls sandals for $82 with tax. Had I paid full price, I would’ve spent over $200. Prices must reflect what’s moving and what’s not.
Michelle • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:33 am
Job creation needs to be paramount at this stage of a recovery and the Obama administration has yet to resolve this issue. A double-dip recession does seem most likely, but even more frightening is the fact that we may become just like Japan and flatline for decades without job growth.It’s frustrating to wait and see what develops going forward, recognizing there was an immediate need to stabilize the financial system first and foremost. Now that this appears to have occurred, jobs must be created, and soon, in order to maintain this financial stability, otherwise we may find ourselves right back in the midst of implosion once again.TPTB seem to have a better handle on things, but I think they may quickly be blindsided if they don’t move faster to avoid impending disaster.
Softwarengineer • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:34 am
VW/TOYOTA NEXTYou can “hem and haw” that the rest of the world is somehow special and separate from America’s industrial base collapse….trouble is, they aren’t. Asian auto manufacturers are totally dependent on American consumers; and Europe is stuck in the conundrum too. I hear young adults in Japan won’t buy cars, its a waste of money to them with global wage constrictions hitting their tier.Nope, I predict worldwide auto production bankruptcies, as America’s per capita income [not household income, families are moving in together now in America] goes down the toilet. You may hate the UAW, but its pay grades like that which fills the universities with students too.I also see the foreign automobile plants closing first [just like GM did to Mexico and Canada] in America when the foreign automobile company bankruptcies begin approximately in 2010 and 2011.You might want to put off a foreign car purchase this year, the bargains are very likely coming soon to a bankrupt foreign car dealer near you.
Bob • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:48 am
On the gas and oil issue. It is obvious that we have more supply than demand but yet the price of oil continues to rise.Here’s a thought to consider – there were three countries or areas – China, Japan and the oil emerants that were buying 60% of our treasuries. It’s obvious that Japan will not be able to help much these days. We have Turbo Tax Timmy over telling China … It’s all good! Which leaves us with the oil countries.Do you think the US and the oil emerants are gaming the system for future buys in treasuries (i.e. we will keep oil high you continue to buy treasuries)?
Softwarengineer • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:50 am
THE OBAMA PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS PLANHe praised the engineers in America for being some of the brightest in the world and assumed that even though the bailouts don’t directly build private sector jobs, the availability of money will drive our technical forces into new ventures, like wind mills and solar panels. LOLCompared to 100,000 part automobile production, do you know how many engineers it takes to build a like 1000 part wind mill….yes, approximately 1/100th of the laid off auto engineers.Couple this cheery news with how many production workers, accountants, MBAs, etc. needed with simple system green technology, you get the gist.Fuel cell cars could employ a lot of people, trouble is, I hear the price for these units is cost prohibitive [somewhere around $30-40K each]….Americans working today’s constrictive service sector pay [like $10-15/hr] don’t want those cars, they desire the units in the $10-15K range. Ask ‘em.But at least the laid off local government workers can work for a bit and the bank stock holders still have equity with the stimulus money emphasis, for now.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 11:09 am
BEIJING — China’s former central bank adviser Yu Yongding will meet Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner today and tell him the U.S. shouldn’t be complacent about China continuing to buy Treasuries.”I wish to tell the U.S. government: ‘Don’t be complacent and think there isn’t any alternative for China to buy your bills and bonds,’” Yu said in an interview yesterday. “The euro is an alternative. And there are lots of raw materials we can still buy.”http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aatNgaPM2wQM&refer=home
C.A. • June 2nd, 2009 at 11:16 am
OR, Do you still check in from time to time? I was wondering your thoughts on following the ECRI indicators. ECRI is pretty persuasive, compelling even, but with the real economy in the shape it appears to be in, growth based on the real economy seems somewhat difficult to believe in.
Cahill • June 2nd, 2009 at 11:26 am
Most Europeans have the benefit of more public transportation. Cities in the southern part of the US really have very little public transport and places are spread out for miles and miles. But $7 a gallon still sucks no matter how you look at it.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 11:49 am
The euro is an alternative? I don’t think so.
狗仔 • June 2nd, 2009 at 12:00 pm
唯一偷食經驗!!大約一年前!!有老死生日BBQ(當時識佢果陣我條女唔係到,因為佢極度唔鍾意我其中一個FD,佢打死都唔去)佢係一個文員,平時反工會著OL裝,但平時出街就會著得好SEXY(佢亦都有男友)識佢第一日係成班FD BBQ 係一個好黑既交野公園 當時完全冇留意這個小妹妹(因佢細我5年)當BBQ完後我車其中2個FD反屋企,而這個小妹妹亦順路,所以車埋佢,先掉低我2個FD後,最後先到佢佢落車時話我好好人,我話順路啫,唔駛咁客氣,之後佢問我拎電話,有機會再一齊玩過幾日後~佢SEND SMN 問我有冇MSN~覆佢有之後我地就經常性地傾MSN當中我地有傾過性問題,佢話佢男友成日睇AV,話佢成日打飛機都唔肯掂佢(一星期一次左右,佢地係同居)我答佢你一星期有一次咪算好囉(因為我果時個女友係有性冷感,平均1-2個月先有一次)咁佢問,你平時想要但佢又唔比咁點算?我話一係忍, 一係自己搞掂囉,佢再問!你咁都唔去偷食?我答:因為我接受唔到自己另一伴偷食,所以張心比己,我唔會咁做大約MSN左一個月左右,我就約佢出黎食飯(只是朋友食飯,冇諗過會有事發生)之後食完飯,佢約左朋友飲酒,但未夠鐘,所以我就同佢搵個地方坐低我唔記得當時佢講過D咩,但一定係好有挑釁性既說話,我就一野咀埋去,咀到佢興合合既時候我就話係街唔係咁好,我地搵個地方再傾過,佢話好,咁我就一路行,是是但但就搵左間時鐘酒店一去到唔駛問梗係係咁車佢,車到咁上下我就話一齊沖涼,但佢話唔好,OK~自己沖自己上到床佢係完全另一個人,自動幫我吹,吹冇耐我就黎招69先,佢好多水,我成塊面都係=.=(係我見過出得最多水既女仔)冇耐就帶套上馬,因為佢約左人,所以時間緊迫,拿拿聲想搞掂掂算先黎個男上女下,再黎狗仔,D水真係多到唔知點講可以話係潮吹咁,係咁噴出黎,見到咁既情況我冇耐已經忍唔住出左,沖涼後佢就去左搵FD,宜我就有D內疚最後我地只係有這一次,耐唔耐就MSN下咁,當然再打後我唔知仲有冇機會喇
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Why not Guest ?The Euro hasn’t lost 15% of its value over the last two months unlike the dollar, AFAIK…Has the ECB started with Quantitative easing ?Has the ECB increased its balance sheet by more than 120% over the last 6 months ?Are inflation expectations in the Eurozone in the mid term in any relation with those in the USA ?Has the Euro lost to Gold over the last few months ?So why do you see the Euro as another weak currency ?
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 12:05 pm
you are not calling the shots, man. they want to buy euros and they can do it – your opinion does not count.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 12:07 pm
ban this stupid Chinese dog from posting dirty stories! hey, shame on you, the worst from Chinese.
Anonymous • June 2nd, 2009 at 12:13 pm
This has obviously been a tradeable rally that most of us probably missed, as NR has been patting himself on the back about being right 12 to 18 months ago. He’s missing something now. Bright people are making money and he’s still in denial that the market rally is real.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 12:22 pm
The problem is that the complete urban development of the USA was built around the automobile, not Europe’s.Here lies a great structural disadvantage for the USA, where very few people can survive without a car, unlike in Europe : it will take decades of structural change, infrastructure investments and long term planning to change this. And there seems to be so little impetus to go for it.Net Result is that Americans consume on average twice as much gas per capita than Europeans, and the trend isn’t in closing the gap, quite the contrary.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 12:36 pm
The story isnt’ over yet !Nobody suggested the rally wasn’t “real”.In 1929, after the crash in October, there was a rally that lasted almost 6 months and took equities up more than 35% before they tumbled down by close to 80% for the following 30 months.In total, there were 6 such rallies during a period of 3 years.One can make money with those rallies, but one must know when to sell, and there lies all the difiiculty.So time will tell who was right or wrong, for the moment, it’s a bit early to wirte dispariging messages about NR.
TfT • June 2nd, 2009 at 12:36 pm
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 12:48 pm
You can trade all you want, however a lot of us would like to INVEST when the fundamentals indicate that is the right time to jump in.I (we) suspect that the market is being manipulated to accomplish a certain goal, that is raise capital for banks. Since I smell a rat, I will keep my few depreciating $’s in the bank.NR has been clear about this being a bear rally backed with data.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 1:10 pm
The more they will talk of green shoots, of recovery within short, the more oil and other commodities will surge, the more the dollar will drop, the more inflation expectations will rise, the more bond yields will rise, and the less the recovery will happen and all will come tumbling down, like humpty dumpty.
Michelle • June 2nd, 2009 at 1:16 pm
I agree that the markets are being manipulated to accomplish concurrent goals, but this isn’t to suggest that all stocks will go down if the rally ends. There have been many companies’ stocks that were so severely undervalued that I have been both trading and investing, taking advantage of some great bargains. For those of you willing to take some time to find those undervalued stocks, I am confident you will find many that have low downside risk and huge upside potential.The liquidity crunch we endured created a huge buying opportunity and great buys can still be had. I am hoping for a pullback so I can add to my positions as many of my purchases have already shown huge gains, and the volumes indicate accumulation, not trading. You haven’t missed the boat, but it’s going to take more than just throwing a dart at a dartboard to find them now.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 1:17 pm
Here’s another, but in english:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/03/business/03auto.html?ref=global-homeChinese Company Said to Be Buyer of Hummer
PeteCA • June 2nd, 2009 at 1:29 pm
The on-going financial crisis in the USA has caused a lot of Americans to do some deep thinking about earlier generations of men and women who founded our country – and the values they beleived in. This last week Doug Wakefield and Ben Hill wrote a really good article that captures some of that theme at the following link …Lessons from Andrew CarnegieNote especially the following sentences written by Andrew Carnegie in the 1800′s when the world was experiencing a major financial debt crisis …”The Republic [America] emulated her mother’s [Britain] example and cuts down her debt with unexampled rapidity. It is a curious fact that these, the two English-speaking nations, should be the only ones who resolutely set their faces strongly in the debt-discharging direction.”At that time in American history our leaders shunned national debt and avoided a crisis – through their strong commitment to financial responsibility, hard work, and savings.Something we should think hard about today.PeteCA
SimpleIsBest • June 2nd, 2009 at 1:35 pm
Sad to say that I do not think that those responsible for this mess believe that there is anything wrong. The DENIAL runs deeper now than ever.There is only one way to start making sure that the problem is not repeated, and that is to change the behavior by removing all those who (continue) to perpetrate this nonsense – in govt. and in the financial industry.Use grass roots local, state and federal action to accomplish the govt. portion.As far as the financial sector, just stop doing business with the top banks/brokerages by removing all of your deposits and shifting them to stable, more well-behaved local institutions.Then lower personal consumption and find a sustainable balance for life on individual and community levels. GOOD LUCK TO US ALL !
PeteCA • June 2nd, 2009 at 1:36 pm
Well … for some reason the link I posted doesn’t seem to work on this Web page. Let me try again, and also post the http script.Link: Lessons from Andrew CarnegieHttp script:http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TheNextLandslide_LessonsFromAndrewCarnegie.pdfPeteCA
PeteCA • June 2nd, 2009 at 1:40 pm
The rally in the Chinese Shanghai stock index is also a tradable rally. The difference is that they are not directly manipulating the market like the USA (although they are pouring in significant liquidity), and they are not trying to pump the value of their banks.PeteCA
Michelle • June 2nd, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Global stock markets are being supported (again!) by the very same firms that are supporting our domestic markets. Our liquidity injections are finding their way into foreign markets, and if our spigots are turned off, those markets will sell-off as well.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 2:01 pm
I live in Western NY and have 3 teens, all of which are looking for jobs to help pay for college and gas for their cars. The problem is there are few jobs out there for college and high school kids. I really don’t know how the next generation of youth is going to afford to go on to college. Without help from parents and unable to get jobs these kids are going to have a hard time. The problem is that older underemployed people are taking the jobs traditionally held by teens. Competition for these jobs is really stiff. I feel for my kids and for myself- because chances are they’ll be living with me for a lot longer than I lived with my parents. That or they’ll do what other unemployed hopeless youth do- join the military or start a revolution or something like that- or maybe they’ll join Obama’s youth brigade?I am seriously scared for my kids future.
phill • June 2nd, 2009 at 2:04 pm
What has been left largely unsaid, in definitive terms, is who the “consensus” of economists work for (largely the investment and banking industry)and where their bread is buttered. This is unlikely to change. Aside from Merideth Whitney’s banking views, few said to get out of the markets as severe troubles lie ahead. Brokereage research will NEVER say it nor will the mutual fund industry. So for those of us who manage client assets we are forced to defy the industry’s views. My experience with clients is they will believe a major firm or the media over my advice far too often. Too bad. The “consensus” has a vested interest in the market machine and so on and on they go.
PeteCA • June 2nd, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Andy Sutton has a nice article at the following link. The whole aticle is worth reading, but his fifth chart is especially worth considering.Long Term Trend of Yield on 10-Year Note Vs 2-Year NoteThis is a chart showing the ratio of the yields between the 10-year Note and the 2-Year Note.Take note (pardon the pun) that we have reached a critical level in this ratio. Compared to a long-term trendline, it has now “peaked”. But I say peaked with inverted commas for a very good reason. First, this whole issue is related to the steepness of the yield curve for US debt. It is a subject that has been worrying the Fed recently – they have even started dropping hints in the media that they were not TRYING to control interest rates on long-term debt. Anything to avoid the perception that something is happening in the bond market that is abnormal.Point being … normally the yield curve would correct itself now and move to become less steep.But what if this doesn’t happen and the ratio ($UST10Y:$UST2Y) keeps increasing and pushes above the historical envelope??? It would mean that investors are fleeing long-term US debt out of a real fear that the United States is reaching a point where it cannot pay back these loans with real value (i.e. bonds are worthless because of risks from high inflation in future or default on obligations). So the behavior of this yield ratio is something to watch closely in the near future.An it goes without saying that a move by the Fed to “correct” this problem and start buying more long-dated debt (by monetization) would be stoke a greater addition to the money supply.PeteCA
PeteCA • June 2nd, 2009 at 2:19 pm
So am I … and every American parent should be. The whole reason that I started studying economics more seriously several years ago – and participating in this forum – was because I was concerned that America’s financial future “did not add up” and the outlook for my kids was not very bright.If America undergoes another revolution, it may not come from reactionary outcasts who are living in bunkers in the mountains. It’s more likely to come from millions of American parents who are “mad as hell” and want something done about the situation.PeteCA
Hubbs • June 2nd, 2009 at 2:42 pm
Where in WNY? I grew up in Orchard Park (south of Buffalo)The city has lost half its population, no industry left…not just because of the economy in general, but the oppressive taxes. If people can’t sell their homes there then they are stuck there. Then what?PS: As crazy as it sounds, I really liked WNY, would love to raise my 5 year old daughter there…but the taxes and lack of jobs, especially in the health care industry, quickly put an end to that thought.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Ah HAHAHA, I am back!!! Inflation fly to the sun!!!
JLarkin • June 2nd, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Just a comment – year to date, the DJI makes a perfect “V”.
JLarkin • June 2nd, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Hang Seng is soaring to the moon lately…
Michelle • June 2nd, 2009 at 2:59 pm
As a parent of four daughters, one graduating from college last week and another graduating from high school last night, I too, am concerned. My college graduate had plans to attend nursing school this fall, but nursing demand has plummeted and she is now reconsidering. In the meantime, she took a full-time nanny job for the summer, and who knows after that, and on top of this, she’s getting married (omg!) next week – to a poor college student! Now how in the world are they going to make it on a nanny’s salary?My high school graduate fortunately has a job, but will be attending college out of the area this fall and will have to quit her job and won’t be working during the school year.I’ve resolved to the fact that as parents we are faced with having to help our children more than our parents did as the economic outlook is poor and inflation plus low wage growth has made it impossible for these kids to put themselves through college.In the meantime, my husband and I still need to build our own nest egg and the competing forces for our dollars is becoming fierce. In the end, I feel it’s more important that our daughters can receive a good education and prepare for a competitive workforce as that is, I feel, my parental obligation. If my husband and I don’t have enough to retire on, then I guess we’ll have to move in with our kids. Other cultures do it, why not us?
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 3:02 pm
The more the fed monetizes Long Term debt, the less confidence they give to potential investors in these instruments (and the less interest for the risk), so the less they encourage them to buy these, so the more the fed has to monetize : it’s a spiraling effect.There should come a point where investors will mainly buy short term debt, and the fed will monetize the majority of the long term one.Now that it’s started, I don’t know where it will end. The credit markets have at least 20-24 trillion $ of debt too much, most of it long term. Looks like inflating it away is what’s the plan.
Gloomy • June 2nd, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Does it get any clearer than this?“If the U.S. can find a way to protect China’s assets, America’s standing here will increase,” Mr. Yu said in an interview Monday. “We are not going to return to the good old days of 2006. We are going to promote the creation of a new world order.”http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/03/world/asia/03geithner.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 3:09 pm
http://www.safehaven.com/article-13501.htmgold just had golden cross, launching a secular bull market!!!!! gold fly to the sun!!! smoking hot!!!
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 3:12 pm
quite contrary, stupid Chinese still accumulating dollar and Treasury. dont believe any word those Chinese said until back by action. Geithner will trash dollar and Treasury to force China’s hand. Chinese will be in denial for a long time about their dollar and treasury. Watch dollar and treasury go bust and burn.
Michelle • June 2nd, 2009 at 3:15 pm
I just reread my post, and it’s depressing. I think I need a drink!
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 3:22 pm
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/05/29/record-demand-record-angst/#more-5529the stupid guy Yu was talking non-sense. what is very clear is china still buying tons of Treasury. Tim Geithner, dont need to beg china to buy treasury. go, bash, and tell those Chinese to bend over and buy more Treasury.
tutterfrut • June 2nd, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Have been thinking along the same line, Bob.”Sitting on nearly a quarter of the world’s known oil reserves, the kingdom can afford lavish dreams. As crude oil surged to a peak of $147 a barrel in July 2008, the state-owned oil and gas company, Saudi Aramco, generated as much as $1 billion a day in revenue.Foreign HoldingsThe Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency — the nation’s central bank — built up its holdings of foreign assets such as bonds and currencies to $546 billion in October 2008 from $98 billion in 2003. Saudi Arabia’s total 2008 GDP of $482 billion dwarfed that of every other Middle Eastern nation.”http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a0F1sR1E0a4M
Michelle • June 2nd, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Guest, what are your current plans in helping your kids if the economy has a long-term stagnation? How far will you help them? I’m curious just because my situation isn’t that much different than yours.
RED • June 2nd, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Job creation will come from developing alternative energy technologies and sources. With high oil prices, the financial returns from alternative energy all of a sudden become compelling. This is the plan, let oil prices spike, develop alternative energy
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 5:56 pm
A new world order is coming. Sooner than you can possibly imagine. Watch and learn.
Michelle • June 2nd, 2009 at 6:24 pm
Major buying opportunity June 12th, buy buy buy with both fists. GM CDS auction – best opportunity to get back into the market.The market is heading up as there is nobody left to sell. Capitulation DID happen this spring and most of us were late to the party. This is YOUR opportunity – don’t waste it. There’s a ton of cash on the sidelines and it will start pouring in. Prepare now and get ready to buy, but wait for the pullback, and don’t buy until June 11th or 12th, which ever day gives us the biggest pullback.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 6:32 pm
oooohhhh… spooky guest….. very spooky
Anonymous • June 2nd, 2009 at 6:54 pm
ABC NewsThe Emergence of President Obama’s Muslim Rootshttp://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/06/abc-news-jake-tapper-and-sunlen-miller-report-the-other-day-we-heard-a-comment-from-a-white-house-aide-that-neverwould-have.html
Anonymous • June 2nd, 2009 at 7:01 pm
here is the linkThe Emergence of President Obama’s Muslim Roots >June 02, 2009 6:58 PM”ABC News’ Jake Tapper and Sunlen Miller report: The other day we heard a comment from a White House aide that never would have been uttered during the primaries or general election campaign.During a conference call in preparation for President Obama’s trip to Cairo, Egypt, where he will address the Muslim world, deputy National Security Adviser for Strategic Communications Denis McDonough said “the President himself experienced Islam on three continents before he was able to — or before he’s been able to visit, really, the heart of the Islamic world — you know, growing up in Indonesia, having a Muslim father — obviously Muslim Americans (are) a key part of Illinois and Chicago.”The above excerpt is the heart of the issue – just like Obama threw Pastor Wright under the bus when it did not suit his political ambition so too die he deny his Muslim heritage – it’s good to see that he coming to terms with his identity.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Farsighted and fascinating predictions for a new world order in which America is no longer number oneThe world is now at a hinge moment in its history, according to veteran international correspondent Paul Starobin. A once-dominant America has reached the end of its global ascendancy, and the question of what will come next, and how quickly, is not completely clear. Already the global economic crisis, in exposing the tarnished American model of unfettered free-market capitalism, is hastening the transition to the next, After America, phase of global history.According to Starobin, the After America world is being driven less by virulent anti- Americanism than by America’s middling status as a social, economic, and political innovator; by long-wave trends like resurgent nationalism in China, India, and Russia; and by the growth of transnational cultural, political, and economic institutions. While what is going to come next has not been resolved, we can discern certain narratives that are already advancing. In this sense, the After America age is already a work in progress—pregnant with multiple possibilities.In this book, which masterfully mixes fresh reportage with rigorous historical analysis, Starobin presents his farsighted and fascinating predictions for the After America world. These possibilities include a global chaos that could be dark or happy, a multipolar order of nationstates, a global Chinese imperium, or—even more radically—an age of global city-states or a universal civilization leading to world government. Starobin feels that the question of which narrative will triumph may be determined by the fundamental question of identity: how people determine their allegiances, whether to the tribe, nation-state, city-state, or global community.There will be surprises, Starobin thinks. In the After America world, both the nation-state and the traditional empire may lose ground to cosmopolitan forces like the city- state and the universal civilization. California—the eighth largest economy in the world and the most future- oriented place in America—is becoming an After America landscape, as illustrated by postnational, multicultural Hollywood. Prestigious educational institutions like Harvard are migrating from an American to a global identity and thus becoming part of an After America universal civilization. While these changes may feel unsettling, our best hope for adapting to an After America world is by becoming better borrowers of the best ideas and practices developed all around the planet.Thought provoking and well argued, After America offers a way to think about a dramatically changing world in which the United States is no longer number one. Starobin’s tone is sober but in the end hopeful—the age After America need not be a disaster for America, and might even be liberating.http://us.penguingroup.com/nf/Book/BookDisplay/0,,9781101054161,00.html
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 7:31 pm
@PeteCABecause you have very strong grip on economics i always thought that you had background in economics. If it wasn’t economics that what was it? if you don’t mind me asking.
Michelle • June 2nd, 2009 at 7:36 pm
HELLO!? WHERE IS EVERYBODY??? Ya think that maybe everyone’s moved on and is no longer reading this board since we are in a new bull market?
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 7:44 pm
I have lived in US fro 15 years but i am originally from asia. In our culture over there parrents support their kids to best of their abilities even if parrents have to sacifice a lot. Kids stay wit their parrents till they are married. When all the kids are married and parrents are old they live the child of their choice
but mostly with male childeren since their is no concept of nursing homes. Old parrents are very well respected and pampered becuase its a social stigma to not to. I think there were same values over here back in 1700′s and 1800′s over here but capitalism( american capitilism which is a extreme form of capitalism and i am not a socialist or comunist) eroded these values.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 8:02 pm
You don’t really think the market is this easy to predict, do you?
Michelle • June 2nd, 2009 at 8:23 pm
It’s been very predictable, ask my stock account.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 8:40 pm
Impeccable logic, impeccably said.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 8:51 pm
Youare reading it! Feel free to invest according to your opinion and God Bless. If you’re right you can laugh all the way to the bank.
Michelle • June 2nd, 2009 at 9:01 pm
I just don’t see a catalyst that will create more selling to the degree in which we’ve already seen. We certainly have fundamental problems that need to be addressed, but liquidity will prevail and we will again see a jobless recovery. Bogus? Yes. Profitable? Yes. Very low downside risk? Yes.
Mark • June 2nd, 2009 at 9:11 pm
I think that there’s still a heavy tendency to believe in the “it’ll work out in the long-run,” that is, “go long.” To some degree thinking long-run is correct, but it’s a matter of what one is espousing that is being pushed for the long-run, and herein lies the problem: the built-in inequities are perpetuated, which can only result in eventual failure.It’s the System!Mark
Mandarin • June 2nd, 2009 at 9:14 pm
When you’re deep enough in debt, your banker becomes your partner.The fate of the dollar and of Treasury debt depends on a combination of spending cuts (Soc Security and Medicare, ending the Iraq/Afghanistan/Pakistan war) and tax increases to balance the budget. Otherwise today’s deficits – very hard to fund – will become totally unamanageable in the near future. That’s the message the Chinese are sending. What they don’t yet know is that Obama’s “left wing cover” for austerity is by no means a done deal.
Mark • June 2nd, 2009 at 9:14 pm
Yeah, how can the UK improve when its North Sea oil fields are in rapid decline (and it faces increasing trade deficits due to energy imports)?Same basic issue holds for many other countries.MarkBTW – One of my metrics is the CAD.
Mark • June 2nd, 2009 at 9:24 pm
The pre-capita income of the Saudis is dropping. I would argue that this point is not lost on the US government and that they see it necessary that oil prices not drop too far lest there be a huge upheaval and the world is faced with a sizable drop in global production.Mark
Mark • June 2nd, 2009 at 9:34 pm
And who is going to buy? The US won’t be able to export because it cannot compete due to low wages elsewhere; and, clearly, internal-only consumption won’t resolve the debt problems: yeah, rest of the world, hang on while we revamp our granite-counter-top-homes with wind/solar, we’ll get back to that debt issue later, honest!But you’re right, it will be blown up into another bubble, only, it can never be what the housing market was (because consumers are tapped out!).More so than more jobs, debt reduction is key. That’s why I’d posted an article the other day that suggested that we’d be better off just giving everyone money (so that they could pay off their debts) rather than creating government subsidized jobs (which will be, invariably, not what the marketplace needs).Mark
FEDup • June 2nd, 2009 at 9:36 pm
I need 3 drinks: in following this thread I recapped my own somber adventure: sold my expensive home in CA in 2005 at peak (very smart) moved family to Florida and bought alot of real estate (very dumb), but cost of living much less (very smart) until today when our Governor Crist just announced an 8-15% rise in tuition for all public universities which my daughter happens to be starting this August (very dumb). So, on paper that’s 2 very dumb moves against 2 very smart moves, yet in reality, I feel screwed. Honey, what do we have to drink?
Mark • June 2nd, 2009 at 9:41 pm
While they can buy raw materials, what are they going to do with them? Build more stuff that the rest of the world can’t afford? Well, maybe some of the “emerging economies,” but not a very big consumer base (they would look to invest their wealth in their own manufacturing).But yes, the US can no longer whip people around and force them to take the US’s proposals or else.In the future the USD will only buy “Iraqi” oil!Mark
Mark • June 2nd, 2009 at 9:52 pm
It reminds me of a safety poster at work which shows someone at the “Pearly Gates” stating that “I’d only ever had one accident!”I’ve done pretty good with what I have, and could have made things look even better had I jumped ALL IN. But it then becomes an issue of when to jump out.If things were so easy then all the big players would be engaging in the same actions; unfortunately, this then would result in a dilution, which wouldn’t result in all that great of returns (compared the the initially advertised ones). Nassim Taleb has a great paper on predictability.“When you find that you are on the side of the majority, it’s time to pause and reflect.” – Mark TwainMark
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 9:54 pm
Being right a few times does not mean you will be right going forward. You are making a perceptive error based on a few cases.
Michelle • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:05 pm
Whatever. I think you’re missing the big picture since most everyone thinks this is a sucker’s rally, and everywhere I go and all the posts I read on other blogs are SO gloomy that no wonder they’ve missed the boat. Oh well.Octavio also thought I was a fool when I bought on the Lehman bankruptcy date, when we darn near suffered a financial meltdown and instead I earned a 25% return in ONE day. This isn’t about bragging, this is about understanding what’s driving the markets. I understand the liquidity forces behind these markets, and that liquidity is running freely these days. My goal is only to share my understanding, and instead I’m being thrown under the bus. I’ll keep information to myself and let you guys guess when it’s safe to jump back in.
PeteCA • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:25 pm
My background is in engineering and science. Economics, when it is studied as an academic discipline, is an enjoyable pursuit. But figuring out how the Fed and Wall St. banks have engineered this to achieve the “Frankenstein creation of American finance” was much harder thing to do … they try to keep it all hidden
PeteCA
PeteCA • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:26 pm
I see you’ve got a tan. Hope you brought us back some souvenirs from your vacation.PeteCA
Nostradamus • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:43 pm
Now that Bank of America, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley have finished their capital-raising stock sales, how soon will it be “bombs away” for the market and a whopping great decline?
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:44 pm
2-4 weeks maybe
Mark • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:46 pm
It would be interesting to get a longer historical perspective on this. But it sure does look bad. This will just make it that much more difficult to refinance all those mortgages (ARMS are going to get absolutely nailed). And… at at time when job losses are mounting! Scary thought: having to sell one’s home to the Chinese for worthless USD!Mark
Mark • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:47 pm
Oh, and this is why we need to hang onto our national parks: they’ll end up like Indian reservations for white folks!Mark
Mark • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:53 pm
Will you people go away?!Go play party politics with the little kids on some Limbaugh site or something!Mark
Mark • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:54 pm
Or go sign up with the KKK… Or whatever it is that people pushing racist agendas do.Mark
Mark • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:58 pm
We are “evolving” (apologists for nationalism would say “devolving”) into geo-regional entities. Pretty much as predicted by the back-to-the-landers as well as high thinkers like Richard C. Duncan. If anything is predictable, this is.Mark
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 10:59 pm
China’s sovereign wealth fund is chucking over a $1 billion in new capital at Morgan Stanley. They’ll own more than 3% of MS after the offering. A subsidiary of Mitsubishi bank is ponying up another half billion and will own more than 20%. <html>http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mufg-china-fund-buying-big-morgan-stanley-stakes
Mandarin • June 2nd, 2009 at 11:01 pm
Actually the deal won’t close until June 15, so the rally may have legs until the middle of the month.
Guest • June 2nd, 2009 at 11:20 pm
Geithner faces sluggish market, rents out NY homeTreasury secretary grapples with sluggish market — for his own suburban NY homeNEW YORK (AP) — The real estate market’s troubles are hitting close to home for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.After reducing the price on his house in a tony New York City suburb to less than he paid for it, Geithner still couldn’t sell and recently rented it out instead, according to real estate agents familiar with the deal.Geithner put his five-bedroom Tudor near leafy Larchmont on the market for $1.635 million in February, after heading to Washington for his job as the nation’s top economic official.A few weeks after the asking price was dropped to $1.575 million, the home was rented for $7,500 a month on May 21, said the agents, Scott Stiefvater of Stiefvater Real Estate and Debbie Meiliken of Keller Williams Realty New York.Neither was directly involved in the rental; the name of the broker and agency that arranged it were not immediately available.Although $7,500 might seem like a lot of rent, it probably falls a bit short of the monthly mortgage payments on the Geithners’ two loans totaling $1.25 million, plus $27,000 a year in property taxes.Treasury Department representatives didn’t immediately return calls about Geithner’s home Monday and Tuesday. He was in Beijing for talks with Chinese leaders.Records show Geithner and his wife, Carole Sonnenfeld Geithner, paid $1.602 million for the home in 2004.The roller-coaster housing market helped spawn the recession Geithner is tasked with ending. Nationwide, the median home price in April — $170,200 — was more than 15 percent lower than in the same month last year.Prices have declined at about the same rate in Geithner’s home base of Westchester County, which includes a string of upscale suburbs north of New York City. At $532,000, the median Westchester home price in the first quarter of this year is at a level last seen in 2003, according to the Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service. Sales have been especially slow in the $1 million-plus range, the real estate information service said.Despite some signs of a national housing-market turnaround, analysts expect prices to take some time to stabilize because of the overload of homes available.In the meantime, many homeowners, like the Geithners, are deciding to rent their properties, brokers say.Some are buying themselves time to wait for prices to rise. Others are trying to cut the cost of carrying their unsold homes, even if their tenants’ rent doesn’t entirely cover it.”There are people who just cannot come down off their asking price because they just cannot afford to lose $200,000 or $300,000, so they’re saying, ‘Let me just put a Band-Aid on it temporarily,’” Stiefvater said. “Losing a couple of thousand versus $5,000 or $6,000 a month, that’s a lot better.”Geithner, 47, was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York before becoming treasury secretary.His Westchester home has a Larchmont mailing address but is just outside the village boundaries in the town of Mamaroneck, a yachting hub and the home of the Winged Foot Golf Club, a frequent site of professional championships.The 1931 home has been renovated, making it appealing to renters looking for a ready-to-move-in home, Meiliken said.”Geithner’s house was definitely something that you could be happy to live in for a while without having to put any money in it,” she said.http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Geithn…9661.html?.v=3
Mark • June 2nd, 2009 at 11:25 pm
Quite sad that these same people were incapable of revolting against crimes against humanity committed in their name: illegal wars of aggression.But… it’s not the US government that is the bill collector (tax collector yes), it’s other countries. And sad that this would be, no, check that, how hypocritical it would be to lash out against creditors when the US has historically stomped others into paying Their debts.Maybe the US is pinning its hopes on oil revenues from its conquests in the Middle East? Damn Iraqis! Oops, I mean, terrorists!Mark
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 12:41 am
dont believe any word those Chinese said until back by action.he he, that is exactly what folks are saying about the U.S. government.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 12:43 am
We are going to promote the creation of a new world order.
Again? Bush just changed the world order a few years back (supposedly).How many New World Orders do we need?
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 12:45 am
…and does the Eurozone have trillion+ dollar deficit?
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 3:31 am
I take issue with the comment “the tarnished American model of unfettered free-market capitalism”. Surely he could have just said “Fraud”? Free-market capitalism, when conducted ethically and honestly, works. It is only when you throw fraud and greed into the mix that problems occur.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 4:24 am
It is the System only as far as people are willing to be dictated by it.Another issue is that many people believe that it is fully possible to talk the economy up or down, i.e. that negative views can well become self-fulfilling prophecies and that positive views can rescue an economy that is down the tube.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 4:31 am
I would be very very surprised if California is still the eighth largest economy in the world, after all since they do not MANUFACTURE STUFF but mainly SHOP FOR STUFF (in other words a so-called “Service Economy” like the rest of USA) and shopping is one economical activity that has been seriously reduced in USA since 2006.The story of CA being the eighth largest economy could actually be one of those 1990′s myths…
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 4:35 am
Looks like one of those books that mixes some known facts with some generally accepted beliefs and formulates a future view using some nice vocabulary. In other words could be as incorrect as many past “Thought provoking and well argued” books.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 5:13 am
Why don’t those F…ers just invest in their own country!!! Instead of waging currency wars on the world
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 6:07 am
State of U.S. manufacturing: amount of orders is down except for new world orders.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 6:25 am
If you have such prescience then how many billions are you worth? I am not trying to throw you under the bus. You are making a common error and I suspect you will give back your 25 percent gain in short order. Also, I cannot agree that everyone thinks this is a bear market rally. Yesterday the news was full of bulls touting better than expected economic news and using these figures to justify the leg up in the market.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 6:30 am
Mark, they can buy the commodities and delude themselves, at least over the short term, that they have an appreciating asset. As you point out, they’ll eventually find out that the world isn’t purchasing their stuff and the copper they are paying $2.30 a pond for will be back at a buck fifty.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 6:39 am
Warren, you’ve got to stop masquerading behind this screen name “Michelle”.
Realist • June 3rd, 2009 at 6:44 am
If they cannot afford to lose $200k or $300k now, it does not seem likely they will be able to afford $400k or $500k later. The market is the market. It does not care what the participants can or cannot afford to lose.There are many people in this situation in their primary and second homes, holding on for the gamble that the market will come back. Never mind that the peak price was illusory. At some point, many will be forced to capitulate.
Giraf • June 3rd, 2009 at 6:55 am
Michelle, your thoughts here are wildly at odds with earlier posts on this thread. Here, you are concerned about your retirement savings and getting your kids through school. Earlier, you were touting the raging bull argument.Bottom line is that all these demographic forces are hugely deflationary. All across the western world, people like you and I are feeling the pinch. Our focus going forward has to be on saving, not spending. Western economies have been built on us continuing to consume. Where is economic growth going to come from if we all keep our hands in our pockets? In my view, all this stuff about global growth coming from emerging markets is claptrap. They make stuff to sell to us. “But they’ll switch to domestic consumption” argue the EM bulls. Trouble is, the aggregate personal incomes in those countries can in no way replace their export sales to the US, EU, UK, Canada, etc.Better go have a few more drinks but stay with the cheap stuff
Michelle • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:10 am
It’s not prescience, it’s information. I’ve posted auction dates here plenty of times and I’m sure other posters will attest to this.I have been trading in and out of the market through all the turmoil, and it’s too bad I’m not a billionaire by now. Guess it depends where you start from!Keep believing that the market moves on economic news and fundamentals, that’s what most believe. I however, do not.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:10 am
The interesting question that needs to be asked is how “the public servant” Geithner managed the wherewithall to purchase a house for $1.6 million, with mortgages of $1.25 million, in the first place. As a “public servant” I wouldn’t have thought he would have had income levels to support it. Hmmm???
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:20 am
Not so fast, grasshopper. The Fed just announced it may require them to raise even more capital. So the incentive to keep the market high may continue. Let the good times roll! See this: <html>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajQ3cx_jGULI
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:22 am
thank you everyone for being honest and open. reading real life situations makes me feel comforted in all that i have lost in the past 2 years and in comfort i find whats really important
Giraf • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:26 am
Hi Pete.Rather than investors fleeing longer Treasuries, I think the answer is that we are running out of buyers, that supply is simply exceeding demand. I found it interesting when the Fed announced back in March that they would buy $300 billion of longer dated Treasuries in the following six months. The ten year, in a matter of minutes, traded down from a 3% yield to 2.5%. What were the players thinking? The Treasury was going to have to issue $2+ trillion of new securities (in addition to rolling over maturing bills, notes and bonds)in the coming 12 months. Did Bernanke & Co actually believe they could get longer rates down by such paltry intervention? The market initially thought so but here we are at 3.65% and look to be heading higher.The classical economists will tell you that such a steep curve is positive for the economy but in this case it’s nor. The Feds can control short rates but not longer rates. Supply and demand will continue to do that and the curve should get steeper.Unfortunately, there is some nastiness hidden in this back up in longer rates. Banks have been huge buyers of Treasury securities, investing almost all of the trillions of dollars of Fed injected liquidity into that asset class. “The plan” was that the positive yield curve, i.e. cost of deposits close to zero, with Treasuries yielding something positive, would generate a large earnings flow for the banks and recapitalise them in a hurry. Now if any of these banks got greedy and bought 5 year notes, or for goodness sake, 10 year notes, they are badly underwater from year end prices and the outlook is becoming more grim. (Unless reality takes hold in the stock market, that those players realise there is no economic recovery, just a less rapid contraction, and that the indices retest March lows). What was expected to be a boon for the banks is now quickly becoming the source of further writeoffs.
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:46 am
It’s all in the numbers!We are on pace for a loss of 6.5M – 7M jobs in 2009. Add that to the 4.5 million lost in 2008 and that will be 11 million JOBS LOST or so. How many have bene created? and what was created was at what salary, 20-35K? a few higher… Folks jus,t like the 1930′s this is going to last a long time and this time there is not enough Govt money or jobs to get us out of it. it make take 20 years for a TOTAL RESET.If Obama doesn’t Spend….We CRASH!!!!!The gross domestic product (GDP) or gross domestic income (GDI), a basic measure of an economy’s economic performance, is the market value of all final goods and services made within the borders of a nation in a year.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_productOur Economy is about $13 Trillion per year as widely reported.Of that amount, approximately half, or $6.5 Trillion, is directly or indirectly related to government spending on the Federal, State, and Local levels…..http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/index.php?year=2009Think about that for a second…about half of our current GDP is government spending….and as the overleveraged consumer keeps cutting back… the economy will contract further….and more then half of the economy MUST be based on government spending or EVEN further contraction will result.All was fine when the Private Side was making handsome incomes due to selling and producing stuff like America did from 1950 to 1980 and paying lots of taxes….but that is not the case anymore since we have moved productivity overseas.Much of the nonsense economists talk about is just that….if you don’t produce you don’t sell and if you don’t sell you don’t make an income, and if you don’t make an income you don’t pay taxes…plain and simple.Due to a contracting economy, primarily driven by fewer consumers borrowing drivng less sales and less tax revenues, the government MUST borrow MORE AND MORE money to keep the government machine spending and the economy rolling despite tax revenues evaporating.Since we weren’t producing much, as long as Consumers borrowed and Government borrowed, and all was fine as long as we could find someone to lend and we collectively could spend. During the boom banks lent to consumers freely and foreigners lent to President Bush until banks and foreigners realized we simply borrowed too much slowed lending as it became much more difficult to service the debt.Now banks are not lending to consumers and the government is compelling banks to lend to it by loaning banks taxpayer money at 1/4% and the banks loaning it right back to us at 4%. It is fine at the beginning….until you realize banks not loaning to consumers is going to drive down the other half of the economy draining the little in dwindling revenues left to the government and eventually morphing our economy into one almost entirely dependent on government borrowing and spending to survive.Due to fewer funds flowing into non government side of our economy…our private economy is becoming much poorer much faster….dwot cited an excellent example:http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=204554&……Mathematically private slowing will continue due to the very high leverage on the Private Side as more and more dwindling dollars are simply allocated to paying interest due to revenues evaporating and NOT money spent goods and services. As the Private economy shrinks, the whole economy will shrink including tax revenues so the government will be forced to borrow even more to just keep things afloat.So long as government keeps borrowing it can keep spending….. HOWEVER, interest obligations will grow and grow sucking dollars away from goods and services it purchases, with time a greater and greater percentage of a contracting economy will be directly consumed by rising interest payments resulting in LESS government spending and further contraction. Due to unstainable interest obligations, it is not too far off now where we will rapidly degenerate into hyperinflation due to borrowing exponentially more and more just to pay interest causing the dollar to crash and prices to rise. In such an environment, wages will NEVER be able to keep up with exploding commodity price and unfortunately many will starve.This is the Paradox….does government keep borrowing EVER INCREASING amounts shifting the burden of taxing on fewer and fewer until the few will be forced to pay 100% of their income and assets, or does government slow spending, drive our nation into a DEPRESSION, and we take our medicine now?????Right now a BIG part of government spending is feeding, housing, and providing medical care to the poor and elderly driving sales at Hospitals, Clinics, WalMart and Walgreens and a variety of other retailers across America. As fewer and fewer can borrow, fewer and fewer will be able to pay taxes and the burden on sustaining our nation’s rising number of poor and elderly will rest on the shoulders of those that have something to offer…and in the not too distant future…..all what they have will not be enough to sustain a $13 Trillion dollar economy.It is easy to grow an economy when you can borrow seemingly limitless amounts of money….it is impossible when you can’t and you have nothing to sell.It is now time for Americans to take responsiblity for America….or soon few us will have anything to offer anyone.Welcome to Zombulation…….it has arrived!!!!Now ask yourself……what will the public do when they really find out what is going on and are we ready for the task??????
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:50 am
Bankers Lament Fed “Bait and Switch:”Decry Increased Capital Requirements, Insult Geithner (my headline)from Bloomberg:”JPMorgan Chase & Co. and American Express Co. were told they need to boost common equity (to repay TARP), less than four weeks after being informed they had enough to withstand a deeper economic slump. Morgan Stanley was directed to raise more funds after already selling stock to cover its stress-test shortfall…The Fed’s demands also partly reflect the biggest three- month rally in U.S. financial shares in at least two decades, which has made it easier for banks to raise the funds….JPMorgan’s (Jamie) Dimon (read) a mock letter to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner:“Dear Timmy, we are happy to be able to pay back the $25 billion you lent us,” Dimon said at the 31st Annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference. “We hope you enjoyed the experience as much as we did.”(Dimon added) “If we don’t get out of TARP, we’d be very surprised. We don’t think we should be surprised.”http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajQ3cx_jGULI
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:51 am
This is what people have refused to do. They have counted the cost of doing something radical. It’s high. They have counted the immediate cost of doing nothing new. It seems low. They prefer doing nothing.But what about the long term? What about:1. Retirement (no Social Security or Medicare)2. The Federal Deficit ($1.8 trillion this year)3. Federal Reserve’s monetary base (doubled)4. Falling house prices5. Rising unemployment6. The war in Afghanistan (forever, until our defeat)”No problem!”How do you reason with these people? Answer: you don’t, if you value your time and your privacy. If you turn out to be wrong, you will be ridiculed or at least treated as a child. If you are correct, you will be hated. You will also be hit up for money. If you are a Christian, you will be told you are heartless. You will become a line of credit for those whose mantra was “No problem!”Rest of article: http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north718.html#?
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:58 am
Mandarin above said the magic words. “Obama’s left wing cover for austerity”. The elite have no intention to institute a progressive marginal tax rate reform not topay more for capital gains and dividends. That leaves a survival of the fittest,NO ECONOMIC STABILIZERS STRATEGY. All Social Programs will be evicerated and whoever can survive will and whoever can’t can’t. This is the opposite of the European Social Democratic State. This is a Chinese model. If you are poor and show no survival skills, you are screwed. If you show survival skills, you are allowed to be exploited. AUSTERITY MEASURES that dismantle all social government spending is the objective. Civil Society will crumble. Obama was brought in to manage an austerity revolution with a smile.
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:01 am
None of the Govt fixes have worked or are working: Not fixing housing, not creating jobs, not fixing the auto industry, not fixing health care…nothing….This is becoming such a joke these days listening to people and pundits say things are better… I would be the first one to admit it too, if things were better, but the NUMBERS and Fundamentals do not lie. And niether does what my own 2 eyes see, and that is shuttered auto dealers, big box retail, strip malls, less traffic, rising gas again, many friends unemployed, for sale and foreclusre signs all over, big time lower attenedance at MLB games, less foot traffic in stores,… and rising prices in food and neccessitiesThe Only fix that has occured is ensuring the Banks and the Rich have kept thier pockets lined…Foreclosures: No End in SightA continuing steep drop in home prices combined with rising unemployment is powering a new wave of foreclosures. Unfortunately, there’s little evidence, so far, that the Obama administration’s anti-foreclosure plan will be able to stop it.The plan offers up to $75 billion in incentives to lenders to reduce loan payments for troubled borrowers. Since it went into effect in March, some 100,000 homeowners have been offered a modification, according to the Treasury Department, though a tally is not yet available on how many offers have been accepted.That’s a slow start given the administration’s goal of preventing up to four million foreclosures. It is even more worrisome when one considers the size of the problem and the speed at which it is spreading. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported last week that in the first three months of the year, about 5.4 million mortgages were delinquent or in some stage of foreclosure.Not all of those families will lose their homes. Some will find the money to catch up on their payments. Others will qualify for loan modifications that allow them to hang on. But as borrowers become more hard pressed, lenders — whose participation in the Obama plan is largely voluntary — may not be able or willing to keep up with the spiraling demand for relief.One of the biggest problems is that the plan focuses almost entirely on lowering monthly payments. But overly onerous payments are only part of the problem. For 15.4 million “underwater” borrowers — those who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth — a lack of home equity puts them at risk of default, even if their monthly payments have been reduced. They have no cushion to fall back on in the event of a setback, like job loss or illness.This page has long argued that a robust anti-foreclosure plan should directly address the plight of underwater homeowners by reducing the loans’ principal balance. That would restore some equity to borrowers — and give them a further incentive to hold on to their homes — in addition to lowering monthly payments. The mortgage industry has resisted this approach, and the Obama plan does not emphasize it.With joblessness rising, lower monthly payments could quickly become unaffordable for many Americans. In a recent report, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston argued that unemployment is driving foreclosures and to make a difference, anti-foreclosure policy should focus on helping unemployed homeowners. The report suggests a temporary program of loans or grants to help them pay their mortgages while they look for another job.The government will also have to make far more aggressive efforts to create jobs. The federal stimulus plan will preserve and generate a few million jobs, but that will barely make a dent — in the overall economic crisis or the foreclosure disaster. Since the recession began in December 2007, nearly six million jobs have been lost, and millions more are bound to go missing before this downturn is over.President Obama needs to put more effort and political capital into promoting the middle-class agenda that he outlined during the campaign, including a push for new jobs in new industries, expanded union membership and a fairer distribution of profits among shareholders, executives and employees.There will be no recovery until there is a halt in the relentless rise in foreclosures. Foreclosures threaten millions of families with financial ruin. By driving prices down, they sap the wealth of all homeowners. They exacerbate bank losses, putting pressure on the still fragile financial system. Lower monthly payments are a balm, but they are no substitute for home equity. And until more Americans can find a good job and a steady paycheck, the number of foreclosures will continue to rise.http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/02/opinion/02tue1.html?_r=1
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:06 am
MM CA is our resident genius, all other discussions are not getting to the heart of the matter. Our consumption economy is unsustainable. We had money to create a radical production program, but we gave it to the megabanks. We should have cut the megabanks out of the loop and used the money to benefit the production economy. We can’t even account for the money given to the megabanks.
see.clay • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:07 am
+1I see the same thing here in UT and alot of angry people. I walk around with a smile because I weigh half what I did last year, have a great job and people that love me, but this whole “less bad” mantra is stupid. If I am running a deficit it sucks regardless of the amount. Smoke and mirrors, creative accounting and blatant lies.
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:09 am
FLASH: April unemployment numbers revised upwards by 50,000… How can they be off 10% or more on projections every month… and its not just unemployment numbers. its every god dam statistic they publish and report on… Do you or anyone really beleive anything these days…. You or I would be fired if we made 10% or more mistakes in our job…Oh and 2 Trillion dollar deficts for this year and next year is a pipe dream… they will say they didnt realize or estimate thier tax revenue base would decline by 20-40%… If i knew that a few months ago and definatley know that now how come the Gov’t PPT dont seem to know it? I laugh all the time these days at the ingorance of the idiots in charge and to some extent my fellow citizins for believing what Obama, Cramer, Giethner, Bernake, Dimon, Kudlow tell them/us. there is an idiot on Fox B right now stating how elated he is we only lost 530k jobs in May… I wish all 530K people would go stand outside fox studios and tell him and the idiots on Fox not to be so happy about thier misery.
Michelle • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:15 am
Giraf,I agree, my posts certainly seem inconsistent.Spending well over $100k on daycare over the years, plus raising 4 kids, has been a very expensive venture. Hence, less retirement savings. Being younger and more trusting, I believed in buy and hold and dollar cost averaging, and my 401(k) got trashed in the 2001 bear market, hence, less retirement savings. Fortunately, I moved my 401(k) out of stocks long before this last downturn and instead have been using my trading account to make money. Unfortunately, my stock trading account isn’t as well funded as my 401(k). I no longer believe in buy and hold and dollar cost averaging as I now believe the paradigm has shifted.I agree, the deflationary forces are strong and will continue for some time, but I also believe that TPTB will stop at nothing to reflate our crippled economy, driving up prices via speculative behavior, higher taxes, etc. College tuition costs are increasing at a rate of 10% annually, which means there’s more cash out of my pocket. College funds set aside have unfortunately not even come close to cover these increases. So yeah, we are all feeling the pinch.In light of all this, I honestly believe that the stock market will go up because of all this liquidity, but also staying abreast of any changes in this liquidity that may make me change my mind.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:15 am
Maybe the plan is for all of us to join the armed forces.
see.clay • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:21 am
you must be my long lost twin…It humors me to actually read the financial headlines and then compare the same data in a different article, it never equates, maybe I was out that year in math class.
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:24 am
Good artice to read: http://rocktrueblood.blogspot.com/2009/06/note-to-all-key-west-realtors-who-say.htmlAlso do not miss this very good report:http://moremortgagemeltdown.com/download/pdf/T2_Partners_presentation_on_the_mortgage_crisis.pdf
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:25 am
Mark Ames, Alternet – Last month, a little-known company where [Larry] Summers served on the board of directors received a $42 million investment from a group of investors, including three banks that Summers, Obama’s effective “economy czar,” has been doling out billions in bailout money to: Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley. The banks invested into the small startup company, Revolution Money, right at the time when Summers was administering the “stress test” to these same banks.A month after they invested in Summers’ former company, all three banks came out of the stress test much better than anyone expected — thanks to the fact that the banks themselves were allowed to help decide how bad their problems were (Citigroup “negotiated” down its financial hole from $35 billion to $5.5 billion.)The fact that the banks invested in the company just a few months after Summers resigned suggests the appearance of corruption, because it suggests to other firms that if you hire Larry Summers onto your board, large banks will want to invest as a favor to a politically-connected director.Last month, it was revealed that Summers, whom President Obama appointed to essentially run the economy from his perch in the National Economic Council, earned nearly $8 million in 2008 from Wall Street banks, some of which, like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, were now receiving tens of billions of taxpayer funds from the same Larry Summers. It turns out now that those two banks have continued paying into Summers-related businesses.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:27 am
Geoffrey Lean, The Independent – One billion people will go hungry around the globe next year for the first time in human history, as the international financial crisis deepens, the United Nations has told The Independent.The shocking landmark will be passed – despite a second record worldwide harvest in a row – because people are becoming too destitute to buy the food that is produced.Decades of progress in reducing hunger are being abruptly reversed, dealing a devastating blow to a pledge by world leaders eight years ago to cut it in half by 2015.Rich countries have failed to provide promised money to boost agriculture in the Third World; the financial crisis is starving developing countries of credit and driving their people into greater poverty, and food aid to the starving is expected to begin drying up next month.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:29 am
Glen Greenwald, Salon – It was one thing when President Obama reversed himself last month by announcing that he would appeal the Second Circuit’s ruling that the Freedom of Information Act compelled disclosure of various photographs of detainee abuse sought by the ACLU. Agree or disagree with Obama’s decision, at least the basic legal framework of transparency was being respected, since Obama’s actions amounted to nothing more than a request that the Supreme Court review whether the mandates of FOIA actually required disclosure in this case. But now — obviously anticipating that the Government is likely to lose in court again — Obama wants Congress to change FOIA by retroactively narrowing its disclosure requirements, prevent a legal ruling by the courts, and vest himself with brand new secrecy powers under the law which, just as a factual matter, not even George Bush sought for himself.The White House is actively supporting a new bill jointly sponsored by Sens. Lindsey Graham and Joe Lieberman — called The Detainee Photographic Records Protection Act of 2009 — that literally has no purpose other than to allow the government to suppress any “photograph taken between September 11, 2001 and January 22, 2009 relating to the treatment of individuals engaged, captured, or detained after September 11, 2001, by the Armed Forces of the United States in operations outside of the United States.” As long as the Defense Secretary certifies — with no review possible — that disclosure would “endanger” American citizens or our troops, then the photographs can be suppressed even if FOIA requires disclosure. The certification lasts 3 years and can be renewed indefinitely. The Senate passed the bill as an amendment last week.Just imagine if any other country did this. Imagine if a foreign government were accused of systematically torturing and otherwise brutally abusing detainees in its custody for years, and there was ample photographic evidence proving the extent and brutality of the abuse. Further imagine that the country’s judiciary — applying decades-old transparency laws — ruled that the government was legally required to make that evidence public. But in response, that country’s President demanded that those transparency laws be retroactively changed for no reason other than to explicitly empower him to keep the photographic evidence suppressed, and a compliant Congress then immediately passed a new law empowering the President to suppress that evidence. What kind of a country passes a law that has no purpose other than to empower its leader to suppress evidence of the torture it inflicted on people? Read the language of the bill; it doesn’t even hide the fact that its only objective is to empower the President to conceal evidence of war crimes.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:30 am
CNET – In the first case of its type, a federal judge in California has ruled that police can forcibly take DNA samples, including drawing blood with a needle, from Americans who have been arrested but not convicted of a crime.U.S. Magistrate Judge Gregory Hollows ruled that a federal law allowing DNA samples upon arrest for a felony was constitutional and did not violate the Fourth Amendment’s prohibition of “unreasonable searches and seizures.”Hollows, who was appointed by President George H.W. Bush, said the procedure was no more invasive or worrisome than fingerprinting or a photograph. “The court agrees that DNA sampling is analogous to taking fingerprints as part of the routine booking process upon arrest,” he wrote, calling it “a law enforcement tool that is a technological progression from photographs and fingerprints.”
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:35 am
Dont think for one second other states are not seeing this same issue… but i will say, This great state i live in leads the way again… As cali goes so will the rest of the country… Here’s a quick fix, get rid of California and the rest of the US gets fixed…lolCalifornia is paying out so much for jobless benefits and collecting so little in payroll taxes that its unemployment insurance fund could be $17.8 billion in debt by the end of 2010, according to a new report from the state Employment Development Department.This latest fiscal crisis won’t immediately affect the 1.1 million Californians now collecting benefits because the state is using an interest-free federal loan to cover their checks.But the state is supposed to repay that loan and restore its unemployment fund to solvency by 2011 – and right now, policymakers aren’t sure exactly how to do that, or at what cost.”The deficit that California looks like it is facing is staggering,” said Bud Bridger, fiscal officer for the unemployment insurance program.To rebalance the system and pay back the federal loan, lawmakers must raise payroll taxes on employers, reduce benefits for recipients, or both.In 2009 and 2010, the state expects to pay out $29 billion in benefits. It will collect just $11 billion. Counting the small positive balance that was in the fund at the end of 2008, the result is a $17.8 billion deficit at the end of 2010.the rest of the article:http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/06/02/MNSG17UR5H.DTL&type=business
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:38 am
another idiot on Fox B just said “we can enjoy the inflation that is coming and make lots of money as inflation comes…” and the Fox person agreed… what fucking planet are these people on?My question is who is WE? and Why would anyone enjoy that scenario?I understand why inflation is coming, but i dont beleive for one second why it would be good for about 300 million americans, it brings misery to the nightly dinner table…
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:51 am
LOL – But we have the other finger of the gov’t tracking the other fingers to see what they did/do with the money…lol Unbelivable we cannot “follow our money”FBI targets fraud in TARP, stimulus fund: MuellerBuzz up! Print NEW YORK (Reuters) – The FBI and other U.S. agencies are working to prevent fraud and corruption related to government bailout money and the economic stimulus package, in what could be the “next wave” of cases in the financial crisis, FBI Director Robert Mueller said on Tuesday.Mueller said in a speech to the Economic Club of New York that the FBI, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the inspector general of the Troubled Asset Relief Program were working to track where federal money is going.”With billions of dollars at stake — from the purchase of troubled assets to improvements in infrastructure, healthcare, energy and education — even a small percentage of fraud would result in substantial taxpayer losses,” Mueller said.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:54 am
“I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of Hypocrisy, Coverups and Corruption, one nation under Elites…”
FEDup • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:56 am
You’re on a roll MM; great posts and commentary today!
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 8:59 am
Elites that will bury the rest of us!! Whether we like it or not this is what we get for being passive.
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:00 am
Colusa county in California has 24% unemployment and 26% of its residents on Gov’t assistance. lots of other California counties are in similar poitions. Just like the flu, this stuff spreads… There are NO JOBS, there is NO JOB CREATION UNDERWAY, there is NO MANUFACTURING BASE BEING CREATED and there is NO PRODUCTION of anyhting occuring in general, besides food and energy. OUR BASE HAS BEEN DESTROYED and handed over the BANKS and WALL STREET.So what does the our future look like?
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:14 am
Do not forget this is the same Larry Summers that was President of Harvard until he said that “…math scores of college-bound high school students was a demonstration of genetic differences in math ability in men and women…”Mr Summers was subsequently replaced by a woman.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Summers
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:15 am
The DOW will be at 5000 and the S&P at 475 by Dec 24th, 2009. Merry F..king Christmas everyone!!!! and that is the best case scenario… GDP growth will be -3 to -6% for 2010 too…2010 will be more of the same, NO JOBS, Millions more Foreclusres and Low car sales and on and on. We could also see a halt in 2010 to homeowners being evicted due to foreclosure… the govt is going to have to allow people to stay in thier hosues, especially during the winter… the banks will be screaming, but Obama will have no choice but to allow this…When you have unemployment at offical 12% and unofficial at 20-25% it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out those same percentages can be applied accross every eceonomic indicator such as Federal Tax revenue base, State tax revenue base, Sales tax revenue bases, property tax revenue bases… so the end result will be more printing, but only to pay our foriegn creditors and the banksters, not to help the 300 million americans
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:18 am
At least the idiot knows first hand what most people are going through…
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:18 am
When are people going to get it trough their thick heads, there is no such thing as “Government Spending”. All that is happening is that tax payers, current and for generations to come, are having their payments re-circlated, inefficiently, by a bureaucracy that provides nothing. It is so sad how the great unwashed continue to be duped into believing that “Governments” provide anything.
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:22 am
Bernake “fed debt will be 70% of GDP in 2011″ its a shame almsot all Americans have no clue what that means… and he is underestimating it, i beleive we could hit 100% of GDP by then, if only to survive…
Tim the bear • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:29 am
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Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:33 am
Too much spare time, Tim!
Tim the bear • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:35 am
yes.. i am free…
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:40 am
T,and brilliant.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:43 am
Ah, the bear cometh. In the long run, I’ve never known a real bear to be scared by positive views. An imploding economy trumps the axiom above “that positive views can rescue an economy that is down the tube,” every time.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:43 am
No work, just copy and paste from an ASCII art site.http://www.asciiworld.com/-Bear-.html
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:46 am
Interesting move… Any ideas what’s behind it?http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYqgZUNoD7TwJPMorgan, which has never hired an oil tanker based on data compiled by Bloomberg going back five years, follows companies including Citigroup Inc.’s Phibro LLC unit and BP Plc in hiring ships to store crude or oil products at sea. The firms are seeking to take advantage of higher prices later in the year.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:57 am
uhhh, Muslim isn’t a race, dude.
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:57 am
Bernake sounds nervous this morning, they are hammering him with some good questions…. for some reason he is dripping all the potential problems ahead because of all the printing that has occurred… he is stuttering and stammering as he answers…
Giraf • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:01 am
It’s because of the contango (future prices higher than spot prices). If you’ve got real money or access to permanent credit, you rent a tanker, buy a load of crude at spot prices and similutaneously sell the crude in the futures market and lock in the spread. Much better than using your excess liquidity to buy Treasury Bills!Perhaps someone else can explain why this contango exists, because it has me stumpted. If I am a user of crude and want to lock in future prices (which seems to be the driving force) why don’t I just do what JPM, Phibro, Goldman et al are doing and rent the very same tankers and do the same trades? One reason, my credit isn’t good enough. I can’t borrow to fund the crude purchase and I don’t have resources sufficient to put up maintainence margin against my short in the futures market. There must be more to it but I’ve been trying to figure it out for about nine months, with not much success.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:15 am
from the Telegraph.co.ukJune 3Barack Hussein Obama: US “one of the largest Muslim countries in the world”link The issue is not one of racism (though a convenient label to dismiss a critic), it is an issue of credibility and integrity.It should be of concern that a key player in solving the economic crisis has a character flaw of a magnitude that would allow him to misrepresent his very identity Muslim, Christian or whatever.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:20 am
He doesn’t want to end up like Greenspan – he only has a year left before Summers replaces him. And you know Summer and friends would hang him out to dry when the S hits the fan in 2011 and beyond.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:35 am
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124181970915002009.htmlThe Curse of the Class of 2009For College Grads Lucky Enough to Get Work This Year, Low Wages are Likely to Haunt Them for a Decade or MoreBy SARA MURRAYThe bad news for this spring’s college graduates is that they’re entering the toughest labor market in at least 25 years.The worse news: Even those who land jobs will likely suffer lower wages for a decade or more compared to those lucky enough to graduate in better times, studies show.Economic research shows that the consequences of graduating in a downturn are long-lasting. They include lower earnings, a slower climb up the occupational ladder and a widening gap between the least- and most-successful grads.In short, luck matters. The damage can linger up to 15 years, says Lisa Kahn, a Yale School of Management economist. She used the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, a government data base, to track wages of white men who graduated before, during and after the deep 1980s recession.Ms. Kahn found that for each percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate, those with the misfortune to graduate during the recession earned 7% to 8% less in their first year out than comparable workers who graduated in better times. The effect persisted over many years, with recession-era grads earning 4% to 5% less by their 12th year out of college, and 2% less by their 18th year out.For example, a man who graduated in December 1982 when unemployment was at 10.8% made, on average, 23% less his first year out of college and 6.6% less 18 years out than one who graduated in May 1981 when the unemployment rate was 7.5%. For a typical worker, that would mean earning $100,000 less over the 18-year period.The impact on wages could be just as severe this time around, says Ms. Kahn. That’s because of the depth of this recession and the possibility that the unemployment rate may approach the 10.8% level not seen since the early 1980s. The rate hit 8.9% in April, the Labor Department reported Friday.One reason behind declining wage potential, economists say: The caliber of jobs available in a recession, and their accompanying wages, tend to suffer. High-end firms hire fewer people and drive down salaries because jobs are in such demand.That means many graduates end up with lower-wage, lower-skill jobs at less-prestigious firms or in firms outside their field of interest. Once the economy picks up and they try for better jobs, these workers have to learn skills they should have been developing immediately out of college. In the meantime, colleagues who graduated in a better economy have already developed these skills and progressed much further.the rest is at the link
Anonymous • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:35 am
You may want to read the latest June report by Bill Gross of Pimco entitled “Staying Rich in the New Normal”. http://www.pimco.com and then “Investment Outlook” –June 2009. He discusses staying in shorter maturity debt instruments…
thimma • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:37 am
US economic prediction for 10 years – 10T$ GDP (real), 10% unemployment, 10m cars annually, Dow-10K, S&P-1K, inflation 10%.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:40 am
Genesee county- near Darien lake. Man the city is a ghost town- I used to work in downtown Buffalo about 20 years ago and it was bumper to bumper traffic getting downtown. Nowadays you could sail along on the city streets at 50mph if you could, and hardly see anyone. Buildings boarded up, windows smashed, it’s just pathetic. They keep talking about the great potential and all the good ideas to bring life back to it, but seriously I think they should plow it all under and start over- make it a suburb of Amherst which is the real city now. NO One goes downtown unless they have to now. The only draw today is Allentown and the theatre district. We haven’t felt the downturn in housing so much here because we never had a bubble since our economy was already suffering a downturn.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:48 am
PS. It really is a great place to raise a family, if you can find a descent job, there are still a few good white collar jobs around, and plenty if you’re in health care. I put up with the taxes because the cost of living is fairly low compared to other places. Though I’m not sure what’s coming with Paterson now, seems he’ll tax us to death with all the added fees he’s proposing lately. I don’t see how our taxes won’t go up more to close the deficit. So I’d hold off a bit before moving back.
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:00 am
so that is 10 years of misery… cant say i disagree other than Dow- i beleive it will be irrevalent in anywhere from 2-5 years.
Michelle • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:06 am
I can but you’d just laugh at me so I’ll keep my thoughts to myself.
Know your real enemy • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:13 am
The rightwing reactionary fear of big government is misplaced fear.It is government, of any size, being controlled (guided, coerced, and limited) by the stratospherically wealthy that you must fear …because your interests are diametrically opposed to the interests of the stratospherically wealthy.Fear stratospheric wealth. It is plundering an entire planet – via usurpation of peoples’ governments.Outlaw stratospheric wealth accumulation, and deconstruct the current billionaires’ stratospheric fortunes.
Novice • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:16 am
“The sky is falling”…….The sky is falling !!!!”Okay thanks….just had to get in some practice
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:27 am
“Our earth is degenerate in these latter days. There are signs that the world is speedily coming to an end. Bribery and corruption are common.”- Assyrian Clay Tablet, ca. 2800 BCImagine what the world would look like today if people had long ago learned to embrace limits on how rich and how poor people would be allowed to get. Imagine if all the people over the centuries who were starved to death or didn’t get an education had been educated and had lived to contribute to the world’s knowlege base. Can you imagine?
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:33 am
It is an intellectual travesty to label the “fraud” perpetrated by crooks that deal in trillions and trillions of dollars of fake money as a “tarnished American model of unfettered free-market capitalism.”Americans understand what capitalism is. They try to practice it every day. But every day they find themselves with fewer and fewer choices to control their own financial destinies, with fewer choices that show respect for the law of supply and demand. Relentlessly and methodically, the Fed central planners are closing off every investment option, save one—the equities market, a market the Fed manages to its advantage by manipulation and money it prints itself out of thin air.If the Fed should manage to sew up some sort of patched up “recovery” from this social travesty, it will hold only for a very short time. It would be a bubble—a power bubble. And they would have packed it so it can’t delever.They are criminals who have robbed the bank, and are just now running away in their black getaway car.Americans thought, and many still think, they had a system that gave them an even deal, where they could get something out of their hard work. But as more and more Americans lose jobs, homes and pensions; as they suffer alone, silenced by government statistics and media hype advancing a fake prosperity, they are turning on their “central planners.”It is a little early to pronounce the death of capitalism. America and her people no longer can afford these abuses by private interests using this nation’s resources and accomplishments as their personal power base.If there is going to be an America, there can’t be a Fed.You can’t have a people working for a better deal for themselves and for future generations when they are working for the mob.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:36 am
The Democrat and Republican parties are just the left and the right wings of the bird of prey.
Anonymous • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:37 am
I can imagine a vastly overpopulated planet, much worse than it even is today.
ptm • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:38 am
Very nice post Guest. Thank you.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:40 am
A Brief History of the Apocalypsehttp://www.abhota.info/end1.htm
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:42 am
“To find out the true state of facts, to report them with fidelity, toapply to them strict and fixed principles of justice, humanity and law; to inform as far as possible the very conscience of nations, and to call down the judgment of the world on what is false, or base, or tyrannical, appear to me to be the first duties of those who write.”- Henry Reeve”In the progress of time, and through our own base carelessness andignorance, we have permitted the money industry to attain a political and economic influence so powerful that it has undermined the authority of the state and usurped the power of democratic government.” – Vincent Vickers”The oppressors do not perceive their monopoly of having more as aprivilege which dehumanises others and themselves” – Paolo Freire”Lost to humanity must that person be, who can view without emotion the complicated distress of this injured land. Evil tidings molest ourhabitations and wound our peace. Oh my brother! Oppression is enough to make a wise people mad!” – Elizabeth Peabody”The patience of the oppressed has always been the most inexplicable, as well as probably the most important, fact in all history.”- Author Amos Elon from The Pity of it All”Do you know that the tendrils of graft and corruption have become mighty interlacing roots so that even men who would like to be honest are tripped and trapped by them?” – Agnes Sligh Turnbell, 1888-1982, American novelist”If you do not specify and confront real issues, what you say will surely obscure them. If you do not embody controversy, what you say will be an acceptance of the drift to the coming human hell.”- C. Wright Mills, The Causes of World War III
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:43 am
for ben…(Tom Waits/K. Brennan)who are you?.They’re lining upTo mad dog your tilta whirl3 shots for a dollarWin a real live dollAll the lies that you tellI believed them so well. Take them backTake them back to your red houseFor that fearful leap into the darkI logged in my timeIn the jail of your armsNow Ophelia wants to knowWhere she should turnTell me…what did you doWhat did you do the last time?Why don’t you do thatGo on ahead and take this the wrong wayTime’s not your friendDo you cry.? Do you pray?Do you wish them away?Are you still leave nothingBut bones in the way?Did you bury the carnivalLions and all?Excuse me while I sharpen my nailsAnd just who are you this time?You look rather tired(Who drinks from your shoe)Are you pretending to love?Well I hear that it pays wellHow do your pistol and your Bible and yourSleeping pills go?Are you still jumping out of windows in expensive clothes?Well I fell in loveWith your sailor’s mouth and your wounded eyesYou better get down on the floorDon’t you know this is warTell me who are you this time?Tell me who are you this time?
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:44 am
The Bond Boys are set to pounce. if that happens and Bonds go up, stocks will crash and interest rates will rise. if interest rates rise, there will be no help coming form the consumer in terms of a consumer led recovery. the Fed and the treasury know this and are scared beyond scared as they basically are out of moves. any hint of inflation and interest rates going up and the game will be over.actually inflation has already started (gas up 35%, food up) and interest rates are creeping up. already the past 2 weeks mortgage interest rates have choked off any new mortage applications for even foreclosed housing.
Giraf • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:45 am
I’m interested in all thoughts.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:45 am
Wrong. Wherever people are not prevented getting an education, population controls itself.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:50 am
Do you mean The Vigilantes are back???
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:54 am
For Pete CA – chew on this… lol no wonder claifonia has budget probelms… i think the days of these type State jobs and pensions are over…http://www.californiapensionreform.com/calpers/
kilgores • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:56 am
Getting rid of the Fed would be just plain stupid. Those of you calling for it to be dismantled can complain all you want, but our central banking system was created and continues to exist because it serves a number of useful functions for the collective good, not just for the financial industry “mob” (as you characterize it).You think it’s bad NOW? Nobody with a lick of sense would have us return to the chaotic days before the Fed was created. Talk about handing over the farm to the foxes! You might as well just sign up with the corporate banking conglomerates for a lifetime of indentured servitude.SWK
Anonymous • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:56 am
A mind full of trivia is worth….???
kilgores • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:58 am
Excellent, excellent post. Concise, clear, and oh, so true.SWK
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Don’t you mean a mindful of drivel?
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 12:01 pm
San Francisco Chronicle May 31 Sunday Comics: DOONESBURY |Garry TrudeauSetting: Doonesbury kitchen, the breakfast table…Sam: “Reverend Sloan, I’ve been noticing something about the readings in church…”Rev. Sloan: “What’s that, Sam?”Sam: “Well, whenever you read from the Old Testament, God is always crabby and snarky to everyone…”Sam: “But the New Testament isn’t about anger at all – it’s about love.Sam: “God’s only son is this total pacifist – He wouldn’t harm a flea. He’s just this humble dude who’s mellow to everyone – even the Romans!”Sam: “He only really snaps once, right?”Mom: “With who, honey?”Sam: “The moneylenders, Mom!”Mom: “Oh, right. What IS it about moneylenders?”Rev. Sloan: “They do seem to set people off, don’t they?”
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 12:05 pm
Interesting … I see some folks on there I have worked with in the past …Didn’t realize UC Faculty were on CalPers, thought they were with UC Benefits, a differentsetup.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 12:07 pm
SWK, I don’t understand why you defend the Fed unless it is nationalized. Why should private bankers have the power to lend new money into the economy at interest (without creating the amount needed to pay that interest), when the government could spend money into existence without having to charge interest, or, the government lend it into existence with the people reaping the interest off the people’s money???
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 12:07 pm
You are deluding yourself. When you get caught short, as you will, please have the integrity to post about it.
kilgores • June 3rd, 2009 at 12:09 pm
I don’t remember President Obama ever denying Muslim HERITAGE…he only denied BEING a Muslim, since he’s a Christian, by all credible accounts.SWK
kilgores • June 3rd, 2009 at 12:11 pm
That was a particularly poignant and timely strip by Trudeau…SWK
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 12:13 pm
“The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars; the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth.”H. L. Mencken
kilgores • June 3rd, 2009 at 12:31 pm
I don’t think the Fed has to be nationalized in order to be nationally controlled. While I take the point that perhaps some degree of enhanced Congressional oversight might be useful, and we should probably do something about the revolving door between Fed and Treasury Department service and the private financial sector, I certainly don’t relish the notion of seeing even more politicization of the Fed than is already the case. I tend to believe the Fed best serves its function when it has at least some degree of autonomy from Congressional politics and private sector lobbyists.The authority of the Fed to lend money is informed by Congressional mandate. Our elected representatives in Congress can modify, curtail, or expand that authority at any time. Establishing parameters for the exercise of the Fed’s authority, if necessary or advisable, makes more sense to me than abolishing the Fed in its entirety.SWK
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Michele,Here is the way I read your posts:I need the value of my portfolio to increase; therefore, I need the market to go up. X, Y, and Z are factors that will make the market go up. Since X, Y, and Z exist in the market, the market will definitely go up.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Good cocktail party banter.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 12:47 pm
Yes!These maxims of fundamental truths fly right over the heads of the masses, as evidenced by the criticisms here. “You can fool too many of the people too much of the time.” James Thurber
Michelle • June 3rd, 2009 at 1:00 pm
I will post when I’m wrong. I mentioned last Wednesday’s CDS auction, the market tanked 173 points. Guess why gold, oil, and the markets are selling off today and why the dollar is up?
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 1:01 pm
There is massive criminal activity walking the American landscape. Would you say that it is coming from hardworking Americans or from the financial sector? And keep in mind that the private bankers at the Fed are at the core of the financial sector.Frankly, this quote from Paul Sann regarding Al Capone in “The Lawless Decade, a Pictorial History of a Great American Transtion,” applies to America’s current lawless decade under the banksters at the Fed:”He was mayor, governor and machine boss all rolled into one. He gave the orders; the people’s elected servants carried them out and kept their mouths shut. His authority was so great it could not be measured.”
TfT • June 3rd, 2009 at 1:03 pm
Jim Rogers: S&P Could Go to 50,000 (via Yahoo Tech Ticker)
It’s a bear market rally. I was going to say I don’t think S&P 500 will see new highs. But I have to quickly temper that by saying against the dollar because the S&P 500 could triple from here if they print enough money and the value of the US dollar collapses, then S&P could go to 50,000, Dow Jones can go to 1,00,000.
@MM CA,Pardon my ignorance and you may comment this already. What is your opinion on what the enormous liquidity US FedRes creates would result in? As Michelle commented and if my understanding is right, it pushes the US stock markets (and others) quite nicely.@Michelle,Is there any downside of the liquidity creation and injection from US FedRes? Or the US markets are going to sun (like SGG loves to say) propelled by the FedRes liquidity?Will appreciate if you can share your thoughts and comments on this.
wethepeople • June 3rd, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Except that the private banker’s power endures centuries, while congressional and senate terms are much shorter relatively. The private bankers have patience, the printing press, fractional reserve lending, the military, and the politicians themselves in their pockets. Also, congress has been known and prone to error. Just because some congress long ago “mandated” the federal reserve system, doesn’t mean it was right, will last or cannot be reviewed and revoked since they are not delivering the outcome(s) they aspired to when they recieved their gratutious “mandate”.
Michelle • June 3rd, 2009 at 1:09 pm
Yes, X, Y and Z do exist in the market, and the market will definitely go up. You read it right. Of course, not in a straight line, but the general trend is up and will continue until such time that liquidity is drained from the market, and a catalyst would be necessary for this to occur. All the sellers have sold, now it’s time to buy.
Guest 2 • June 3rd, 2009 at 1:29 pm
2nd guest here again, SWK – the one who asked you the question. Thanks very much for that answer. I take your points, too, and find we have large agreement. (Note we did not touch on the Fed’s other duty, the utterly abandoned duty to protect employment.)I have wondered why even the people honestly striving to solve problems seem to miss the very big point that even if the power to create money/debt were restored exclusively to public hands, that move by itself does nothing to stop the money/wealth still accumulating in private hands to stratospheric heights, just as it does now.Seems to me it might slow it down for awhile, might interrupt it (the pace of accumulation), but if ‘money makes money’ doesn’t change, well, don’t we end up with the same outcome: the further concentration of wealth in fewer hands – no matter who does and doesn’t issue the debt?
Morbid • June 3rd, 2009 at 1:31 pm
Here is a recent take on the coming of the Apocalypse.Archetype of The Apocalypse; Divine Vengeance & Terrorism
Michelle • June 3rd, 2009 at 1:41 pm
Of course there’s tons of downside risk with all the excess liquidity via price inflation through speculative activities, which is where this liquidity will end up since we currently don’t have REAL investment in this country. The securities markets are still in tatters, so there are fewer investment opportunities for this excess liquidity to go. So what do we have left? Commodities, precious metals, treasuries, stocks, real estate. Savings rates will continue to stay low and investors will soon see that their savings won’t keep up with inflation, so that money will make it’s way into all these asset classes in time. Downward prices on residential and commercial real estate will continue for some time, but will eventually find a floor and stabilize.Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, SGG (StocksGoinGreen), and of course myself, believe that global stock markets are going to the sun.
Morbid • June 3rd, 2009 at 1:42 pm
But, but … this amounts to only $0.5 Billion a year.
Softwarengineer • June 3rd, 2009 at 1:42 pm
KEEP THAT KID WORKING WHILE GOING TO COLLEGEThe worse thing elites are doing for their kids is buying them tuition, a dorm room and books; and handing them a credit card for their entertainment. Don’t clean out their room after they graduate.Instead of 4 years to graduate, how about 6-8; with 40 hrs a week work experience in the mix. Hades, even flipping burgers and then getting a business degree will mean a slamdunk chance at a regional manager job of fast food restaurants. No work experience can likely mean another uncounted unemployment statistic living off mom and dad.Another thing you never want to do as parents or as a student: “Going into debt with student loans”. If anything, encourage your kid to save like $30-50K before they graduate at their concurrent fulltime job.Now they’re possibly ready to move out on their own [assuming they still have that job they had while they were in college]; rent a small apartment, buy a car and get their teeth fixed.
My Motto • June 3rd, 2009 at 1:51 pm
LIVE! DEFY THE GODS WHO WOULD DESTROY YOU!
Morbid • June 3rd, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Germany Blasts Powers of the FEDNice to see people burned by hyperinflation remain sensitive to the issue. But Bamelot wet dreamers know nothing of this “pay me later” outcome.
Dan • June 3rd, 2009 at 1:55 pm
“Either cuts in spending or increases in taxes will be necessary to stabilize the fiscal situation,” Bernanke said in response to a question. “The Federal Reserve will not monetize the debt.”Bernanke seems to be saying that he will stop printing. Then just maybe the stocks will not go to the sun.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aLGYMr_g7PSg&refer=us
PeteCA • June 3rd, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Giraf: Actually if you check the behavior of the oil companies … I think you’ll find that they do stockpile oil when prices are low. They can do a lot to hold more in storage, at tanks in plants, until prices soar higher. They can probably hold it in ships too, but it would make sense to keep the loaded ships at berth somewhere in the world. No point in risking an accident at sea.PeteCA
TfT • June 3rd, 2009 at 2:04 pm
@Michelle,Thank you very much for your comments.@Dan,Hmm, Is what Heli (or Zimba) Ben said trustworthy? I’d hold my judgement until his deeds meet his words.
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 2:08 pm
Bonds go up, interest rates rise, dollar eventually crashes… this is all short term knee jerk reactions to prop up the market… this is NOT past normal market repsonse… THIS is 100% smoke and mirrors by the FED. The FED and treasury have never before played in the market like this. Jim rogers above is joking because he thinks the dollar will crash…. but if it crashes it doesnt matter what the number the DOW is at… I posted earliar: The DOW will be at 5000 and the S&P at 475 by Dec 24th, 2009. Merry F..king Christmas everyone!!!! and that is the best case scenario… GDP growth will be -3 to -6% for 2010 too…
Dan • June 3rd, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Agreed.Hopefully it is just a beginning
TfT • June 3rd, 2009 at 2:15 pm
@MM CA,Thank you very much for your comments.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Rogers may have a point in that Zimbabwe had the best performing stock market, in local currency terms, for years. It was the only way to hedge against the daily debasement of the Z$ (I think they had a dollar, before a trillion dollars).
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Are you saying there are no jobs?
Seriously, though, thanks for keeping the significance of that point (no jobs), and related information, on our radar.
Gloomy • June 3rd, 2009 at 2:37 pm
All this talk of dollar crashes and hyperinflation is for the moment bogus. The dollar amd bonds weaken and commodities rise when the market goes up. When the market goes down everything reverses. Until I see the market AND the dollar tanking at the same time as bond rates and commodities rise, deflation is firmly in control. I’m hedged either way, but for the moment just watching the show.
Giraf • June 3rd, 2009 at 2:38 pm
But what is setting the huge premiums in the forward (futures) market? Who are the buyers? Why are they paying such premiums when everything one reads tells us consumption of oil based products are at a 10 year low?
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 2:42 pm
lest we not forget and something that seems to be getting lost in all the “green shoots” “its a rally” “we hit the lows” is Health Care. if Health Care does not get fixed there is nothing that can stop this country from langusihing in a depression for the next 10 years or more.THE WHITE HOUSEOffice of the Press SecretaryFor Immediate Release June 3, 2009TEXT OF A LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT TOSENATOR EDWARD M. KENNEDY AND SENATOR MAX BAUCUSJune 2, 2009The Honorable Edward M. KennedyThe Honorable Max BaucusUnited States SenateWashington, D.C. 20510Dear Senator Kennedy and Senator Baucus:The meeting that we held today was very productive and I want to commend you for your leadership — and the hard work your Committees are doing on health care reform, one of the most urgent and important challenges confronting us as a Nation.In 2009, health care reform is not a luxury. It’s a necessity we cannot defer. Soaring health care costs make our current course unsustainable. It is unsustainable for our families, whose spiraling premiums and out-of-pocket expenses are pushing them into bankruptcy and forcing them to go without the checkups and prescriptions they need. It is unsustainable for businesses, forcing more and more of them to choose between keeping their doors open or covering their workers. And the ever-increasing cost of Medicare and Medicaid are among the main drivers of enormous budget deficits that are threatening our economic future.In short, the status quo is broken, and pouring money into a broken system only perpetuates its inefficiencies. Doing nothing would only put our entire health care system at risk. Without meaningful reform, one fifth of our economy is projected to be tied up in our health care system in 10 years; millions more Americans are expected to go without insurance; and outside of what they are receiving for health care, workers are projected to see their take-home pay actually fall over time.We simply cannot afford to postpone health care reform any longer. This recognition has led an unprecedented coalition to emerge on behalf of reform — hospitals, physicians, and health insurers, labor and business, Democrats and Republicans. These groups, adversaries in past efforts, are now standing as partners on the same side of this debate.At this historic juncture, we share the goal of quality, affordable health care for all Americans. But I want to stress that reform cannot mean focusing on expanded coverage alone. Indeed, without a serious, sustained effort to reduce the growth rate of health care costs, affordable health care coverage will remain out of reach. So we must attack the root causes of the inflation in health care. That means promoting the best practices, not simply the most expensive. We should ask why places like the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota, the Cleveland Clinic in Ohio, and other institutions can offer the highest quality care at costs well below the national norm. We need to learn from their successes and replicate those best practices across our country. That’s how we can achieve reform that preserves and strengthens what’s best about our health care system, while fixing what is broken.The plans you are discussing embody my core belief that Americans should have better choices for health insurance, building on the principle that if they like the coverage they have now, they can keep it, while seeing their costs lowered as our reforms take hold. But for those who don’t have such options, I agree that we should create a health insurance exchange — amore(OVER)2market where Americans can one-stop shop for a health care plan, compare benefits and prices, and choose the plan that’s best for them, in the same way that Members of Congress and their families can. None of these plans should deny coverage on the basis of a preexisting condition, and all of these plans should include an affordable basic benefit package that includes prevention, and protection against catastrophic costs. I strongly believe that Americans should have the choice of a public health insurance option operating alongside private plans. This will give them a better range of choices, make the health care market more competitive, and keep insurance companies honest.I understand the Committees are moving towards a principle of shared responsibility — making every American responsible for having health insurance coverage, and asking that employers share in the cost. I share the goal of ending lapses and gaps in coverage that make us less healthy and drive up everyone’s costs, and I am open to your ideas on shared responsibility. But I believe if we are going to make people responsible for owning health insurance, we must make health care affordable. If we do end up with a system where people are responsible for their own insurance, we need to provide a hardship waiver to exempt Americans who cannot afford it. In addition, while I believe that employers have a responsibility to support health insurance for their employees, small businesses face a number of special challenges in affording health benefits and should be exempted.Health care reform must not add to our deficits over the next 10 years — it must be at least deficit neutral and put America on a path to reducing its deficit over time. To fulfill this promise, I have set aside $635 billion in a health reserve fund as a down payment on reform. This reserve fund includes a number of proposals to cut spending by $309 billion over10 years –reducing overpayments to Medicare Advantage private insurers; strengthening Medicare and Medicaid payment accuracy by cutting waste, fraud and abuse; improving care for Medicare patients after hospitalizations; and encouraging physicians to form “accountable care organizations” to improve the quality of care for Medicare patients. The reserve fund also includes a proposal to limit the tax rate at which high-income taxpayers can take itemized deductions to 28 percent, which, together with other steps to close loopholes, would raise $326 billion over 10 years.I am committed to working with the Congress to fully offset the cost of health care reform by reducing Medicare and Medicaid spending by another $200 to $300 billion over the next 10 years, and by enacting appropriate proposals to generate additional revenues. These savings will come not only by adopting new technologies and addressing the vastly different costs of care, but from going after the key drivers of skyrocketing health care costs, including unmanaged chronic diseases, duplicated tests, and unnecessary hospital readmissions.To identify and achieve additional savings, I am also open to your ideas about giving special consideration to the recommendations of the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC), a commission created by a Republican Congress. Under this approach, MedPAC’s recommendations on cost reductions would be adopted unless opposed by a joint resolution of the Congress. This is similar to a process that has been used effectively by a commission charged with closing military bases, and could be a valuable tool to help achieve health care reform in a fiscally responsible way.These are some of the issues I look forward to discussing with you in greater detail in the weeks and months ahead. But this year, we must do more than discuss. We must act. The American people and America’s future demand it.I know that you have reached out to Republican colleagues, as I have, and that you have worked hard to reach a bipartisan consensus about many of these issues. I remain hopeful that many Republicans will join us in enacting this historic legislation that will lower health care costs for families, businesses, and governments, and improve the lives of millions of Americans. So, I appreciate your efforts, and look forward to working with you so that the Congress can complete health care reform by October.Sincerely,BARACK OBAMA# # #
Morbid • June 3rd, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Another massive Ponzi scheme that cannot be paid for. The only solution is metered care – none of this live for ever at-all-costs stuff. Perhaps a massive population reduction will help balance all these “budgets” and promises by the vote buying politicians.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 2:59 pm
Are you reading “10-10-10: A Life-Transforming Idea” by Suzy Welch?http://www.amazon.com/10-10-10-Life-Transforming-Idea-Suzy-Welch/dp/1416591826
Gloomy • June 3rd, 2009 at 3:02 pm
More blather. Special interests are not about to allow significant health care reform. Only a massive financial collapse would allow reformers to finally get something done-maybe around Dow 1000 and 20% unemployment.
Little Saver • June 3rd, 2009 at 3:09 pm
GDP growth will be -3 to -6% for 2010 too…In real terms. Might be positive in nominal terms. FED and Treasury missions accomplished. Smoke and mirrors, fraud and deceit, as always. Nothing new here. Dollar has never gone up, and never will. There’s a sort of incompatibility between such an event and human behavior <g>.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Michelle, are you still drinking?
hlowe
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 3:18 pm
- Tie two birds together. And though they may have four wings, they cannot fly.- You can’t step on the same piece of water twice.- The tadpole loses it strength.- The sword cannot cut itself.- The path and gateway have no meaning, once the objective is in site.from Circle of Iron
Hubbs • June 3rd, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Blah Blah Blah BlahI’ll never hear the end of the endless pontification of how we are going to have to cut waste, fraud, and still provide QUALITY CARE…it’s always QUALITY CARE…QUALITY CARE..Give me a break. The only way to get health costs under control is to ration care.Like my wife’s two brothers, sister, and father in Philippines who died at young ages of very treatable illnesses…pneumonia,appendicitis, post-partum infection…the reality is: No money? Then you die.
Morbid • June 3rd, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Hubbs,Nothing like a personal sharing to put things in perspective – thanks for sharing.The only way these compassion card carrying vote buying bleeding ass liberals have power over the people is by promising this crap. If we all face reality then they lose their power for promising REAL CHANGE. Then we all will have to grow up and learn to quit sucking on HOPIUM coated lollypops.
Anonymous • June 3rd, 2009 at 3:50 pm
No comments about the theme of the meeting of great minds:The “science” of economics.Is that an oxymonron?
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Michele, how long have you been managing your own money the way you are now? I am guessing not that long.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Because Congress is guilty of premeditated non-legislation of the single-payer health insurance the citizens are clamoring for, the government covers all the high-cost people: the poorest and the working poor, the sickest, the youngest, and the oldest – while private insurors have the luxury to cover only those least likely to need services, the most profitable group.How can you say the only way to control costs is to ration care, when this, above, is the situation?Be honest. The facts and numbers prove that Single-payer is entirely affordable without rationing care.
kilgores • June 3rd, 2009 at 4:06 pm
Guest @ 13:01:24I can’t address your question until you tell me what you mean by “massive criminal activity.” I don’t mean to be pedantic, but there can only be a crime when there is a specific law making some activity criminal. I can’t agree with the premise, unless by criminal you mean “immoral,” in which case I might agree with you, depending on precisely what activities you are referencing.While I appreciate the quote from Mr. Sann, the fact is that the electorate has a responsibility to hold its elected representatives accountable. If they are wrongly kowtowing to someone, be it Al Capone or members of the financial industry, it is the people who elected them that need to take charge and fix that problem.SWK
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Isn’t it anyways kinda bizzarre to be fretting about controlling healthcare costs whilst the militrary industrial complex is devouring trillions of dollars, causing destroyed bodies and minds?Where are our priorities?
Anonymous • June 3rd, 2009 at 4:15 pm
oxymoron sorry
kilgores • June 3rd, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Guest 2 @ 13:29:28I think the whole notion of the Fed having a dual goal of keeping interest rates steady and keeping employment reasonably low is a balancing act doomed to failure in a major crisis. Central banks in the western EU can focus on one mission without worrying too much about unemployment because they have meaningful social safety nets in place that the U.S. lacks (there I go, being a “socialist” again).The real problem, as you have rightly noted, is disparity in wealth, which leads to disparity in political power, an anathema to any society which values democratic rule.SWK
s2007 • June 3rd, 2009 at 4:42 pm
that’s good
Qoheleth • June 3rd, 2009 at 4:50 pm
No matter your priorities, you’re doomed. In God you trust, but His name is MAMMON.
Guess too • June 3rd, 2009 at 5:10 pm
God’s Away On Business(Tom Waits/Kathleen Brennan 2000)I’d sell your heart to the junkman babyFor a buck, for a buckIf you’re looking for someone to pull you out of that ditchYou’re out of luck, you’re out of luckShip is sinkingThe ship is sinkingThe ship is sinkingThere’s a leak, there’s a leak in the boiler roomThe poor, the lame, the blindWho are the ones that we kept in charge?Killers, thieves and lawyersGod’s away, God’s awayGod’s away on business, businessGod’s away, God’s awayGod’s away on business, businessDigging up the dead with a shovel and a pickIt’s a job, it’s a jobBloody moon rising with a plague and a floodJoin the mob, join the mobIt’s all over, it’s all overIt’s all overThere’s a leak, there’s a leak in the boiler roomThe poor, the lame, the blindWho are the ones that we kept in charge?Killers, thieves and lawyersGod’s away, God’s awayGod’s away on business, businessGod’s away, God’s away on business, businessGodddamn there’s always such a big temptationTo be good, to be goodThere’s always free cheddar in a mousetrap, babyIt’s a deal, it’s a dealGod’s away, God’s awayGod’s away on business, businessGod’s away, God’s awayGod’s away on business, businessI narrow my eyes like a coin slot babyLet her ring, let her ringGod’s away, God’s awayGod’s away on business, businessGod’s away, God’s awayGod’s away on business, business
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 5:12 pm
Within the next 2 weeks Obama, the Congress, The States, Giethner, Bernanke, et al, will all get to see first hand what happens to a country when they run out of money. The printing press eventually breaks, runs out of paper and ink. When the Gordon Brown led British gov’t suffers a financial Collapse and they are shoved aside WE all will be staring at our fate in short order if we spend every last dime we have. If we do not get deficits under control, cease the incessive and stupid spending ways and start saving, we will suffer the same collapse. Bernanke warned everyone today, read between the lines… Britan is going down and we and others are not far behind.BTW- California has approx. 13 days of cash left and is staring at massive cuts within 2 weeks. It will be a total diasaster in this state. immedaite shortfall is pushing 25 Billion and long term is over 70 Billion… And other states are not far behind. Apply the same pct loss on tax revenues and deficit growth form the FED number below and it doesnt take much to see that most States will be in the same shape as the FED Govt. These Declines in tax receipt numbers show what is goign on with spending and investment currently and yet no one talks about it. the eceonomy is shrinking at an alarming rate. it is beyond me how stocks and the dow and companies are able to show any profits. they have all got to be cooking the books… or maybe the job losses and job cuts are worse than being reported.Again its all in the numbersFrom Roubini on the FEd budget: While tax collections usually boost April revenues, a fiscal deficit of $20.9 bn was reported in April 2009 (first time since 1983) as spending rose 17.5% y/y while revenues fell 34.1% y/y. This took the ytd deficit for FY2009 to $802.3 billion. Corporate tax receipts are down 58.6% ytd while Individual income tax collections are down 24.2% ytd.
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 5:20 pm
Chyrslar is going from producing 2 million cars to a projection of 700K in the “new” company. that is roughly 63% cut in jobs, manufacturing, employees, etc…. 63% is 63%. Demand is gone, base is gone, GM most lilely has similar numbers coming soon… and poor Ford- lol – they are looking at all this as that could be their fate too…We are a disaster as a country and every day people are getting wiped out…. GM had 550 million shares that are no worthless… If they did one thing and took over the banks right now, they could start to fix things… The greed is just too pervasive by the current gene pool in charge… sad to say I would trust the idiot poilticians more than the GREEDY GENE POOL (aka Banks, GS, CEO’s, etc..) in charge presntly
Gues t • June 3rd, 2009 at 5:23 pm
lest we forget….systemic failure is our only hope!
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 5:29 pm
Someone should start a new web site called http://www.greedygenepool.com and allow people to post one name each that can be added to the GGP list. each name posted must have over 500 hits on google.
Sitting Bull • June 3rd, 2009 at 5:34 pm
Either you tighten your belts, scalp your plutocrats,cleanup your politics and eat a bit of humble pie, or K.A.O.S
Morbid • June 3rd, 2009 at 6:12 pm
You are entirely in the first stage of the dying process – it’s called DENIAL.
Farnorth5 • June 3rd, 2009 at 6:53 pm
You have an important point there,SWK.There are other countries who have a Federal Reserve where 100% of the banks shares are owned by the Fed Govt,but the Bank itself is still legally provided with Local Autonomy and works well.What I see is an American Central Bank that is controlled by the Banksters themselves ,indirectly rather than a true stand alone neutral operation .The fact that they are asked to “CREATE”full employment is an excuse to provide totally out of control credit provisions.This past 10 years a Debt Pyramid was created and no one gave a damn as to the quality of the debt involved in the pyramid.Eventually the pyramid fell down and we are all reaping the consequenses.An exact repeat of the “Roaring Twenties” So much for history !!!!!I keep coming back to the fact the U.S.Supreme Court has ruled three times since 1913 that the Federal Reserve is in fact a PRIVATE BANK,nothwithstanding the President gets to appoint the Head for a 14 year term and the Federal Govt only holds 20% of the shares…
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 6:58 pm
By the time they revise the statistics, no one cares about the data being revised. It’s a good game.
Michelle • June 3rd, 2009 at 6:59 pm
Ya know, I had a stock broker that talked me into switching funds from a financial fund to a tech fund in October 1999. I don’t think I have to tell you the end of the story, but I lost my you-know-what. Then, my 401(k) took a thrashing in the bear market as I believed in the buy and hold mantra.I have done TENS TIMES BETTER managing my own money since then, thank you.
Michelle • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:05 pm
Did the above on the 8 year plan – worked full-time, went to school, raised kids, paid cash for college. Still work at the same company, but worked my way up to the top, not, not a hamburger joint, either. I would’ve been better off QUITING my job, taking out student loans, and graduating in 4 years, getting sign-on bonuses, stock options, and a company house and car. Who’d a thunk?
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:10 pm
Towards New Global Currency, New Financial World Order.http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9923.html…..“In fact, the very concept of a global currency and global central bank is authoritarian in its very nature, as it removes any vestiges of oversight and accountability away from the people of the world, and toward a small, increasingly interconnected group of international elites.As Carroll Quigley explained in his monumental book, Tragedy and Hope, “[T]he powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent private meetings and conferences. The apex of the system was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basle, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world’s central banks which were themselves private corporations.”[71]Indeed, the current “solutions” being proposed to the global financial crisis benefit those that caused the crisis over those that are poised to suffer the most as a result of the crisis: the disappearing middle classes, the world’s dispossessed, poor, indebted people. The proposed solutions to this crisis represent the manifestations and actualization of the ultimate generational goals of the global elite; and thus, represent the least favourable conditions for the vast majority of the world’s people..It is imperative that the world’s people throw their weight against these “solutions” and usher in a new era of world order, one of the People’s World Order; with the solution lying in local governance and local economies, so that the people have greater roles in determining the future and structure of their own political-economy, and thus, their own society. With this alternative of localized political economies, in conjunction with an unprecedented global population and international democratization of communication through the internet, we have the means and possibility before us to forge the most diverse manifestation of cultures and societies that humanity has ever known.The answer lies in the individual’s internalization of human power and destination, and a rejection of the externalization of power and human destiny to a global authority of which all but a select few people have access to. To internalize human power and destiny is to realize the gift of a human mind, which has the ability to engage in thought beyond the material, such as food and shelter, and venture into the realm of the conceptual. Each individual possesses – within themselves – the ability to think critically about themselves and their own life; now is the time to utilize this ability with the aim of internalizing the concepts and questions of human power and destiny: Why are we here? Where are we going? Where should we be going? How do we get there?The supposed answers to these questions are offered to us by a tiny global elite who fear the repercussions of what would take place if the people of the world were to begin to answer these questions themselves. I do not know the answers to these questions, but I do know that the answers lie in the human mind and spirit, that which has overcome and will continue to overcome the greatest of challenges to humanity, and will, without doubt, triumph over the New World Order. “
Michelle • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:18 pm
TfT,Thank you for your kind comments, I’ve been getting eaten alive on this board.
Michelle • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:32 pm
Ah, you really think fundamentals are driving the markets and history and technical analysis is your compass. I hope you can see beyond fundamentals and realize what’s really happening. I got laughed at last summer while attending a 2-week conference with 150 financial people when I stated “We are in a highly DEFLATIONARY environment!” Oil was trading at $147 then, EVERYONE was touting high inflation. You know the rest of the story.Everyone needs to find their best method, I’ve found mine. Just was wanting to share, but I can see I’m being laughed out of the room, but I’m tough.
Michelle • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:50 pm
If I told you that I manage hundreds of millions of dollars of my company’s money, you’d never believe me. You also wouldn’t believe me if I told you that we have over 20% capital.There, I finally said it.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:52 pm
Maybe Sour Grapes should be among the first on the list!
FEDup • June 3rd, 2009 at 7:59 pm
Good info! Don’t let the naysayers (who are not billionaires either) discourage you. As someone who loves challenges and solving difficult problems, I have found that the vast majority of people are wrong much of the time and have a difficult time seeing other peoplesideas. What many do not realize is that ideas are meant to stimulate further thought and analysis. Keep sharing as there are many of us who do value your input!
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:02 pm
The System is predicated on GROWTH, and as such, is doomed for failure, period. In the final analysis talking has very little to do with its outcome.Mark
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:04 pm
For once I agree with this guy…. someone must ahve pissed him off for him to come clean liek this…Gross Says Diversify From Dollar as Deficits Surge (Update4)June 3 (Bloomberg) — Bill Gross, founder of Pacific Investment Management Co., advised holders of U.S. dollars to diversify before central banks and sovereign wealth funds ultimately do the same amid concern about surging deficits.Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s plan to bring the budget back into balance won’t be successful as consumers shrink spending and the U.S. growth rate slows, Gross said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today. The budget deficit will be narrowed to “roughly” 3 percent of GDP from a projected 12.9 percent this year, Geithner said June 1.“I think he’ll fail at pulling a balanced rabbit out of a hat,” Gross said from Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, California. “They are talking about — once the economy in the U.S. renormalizes — the move back toward balance or much less of a deficit. I suspect that will be hard to do.”Higher savings rates and an increase in the cost to service the national debt will drag on the U.S. economy, likely meaning “trillion-dollar deficits are here to stay,” Gross wrote in his June investment outlook posted today on the firm’s Web site.Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, said on May 21 the U.S. will “eventually” lose its AAA credit rating after Standard & Poor’s lowered its outlook on the U.K.’s AAA to “negative” from “stable” amid an escalating ratio of debt- to-gross domestic product. While U.S. marketable debt is at about 45 percent of GDP, annual deficits of 10 percent will push the amount to 100 percent within five years, a level that rating companies and markets view as a “point of no return,” he wrote.‘Years to Come’Government spending will push the budget deficit to $1.845 trillion in the year ending Sept. 30, according to the Congressional Budget Office.Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said today that large U.S. budget deficits threaten financial stability and the government can’t continue indefinitely to borrow at the current rate to finance the shortfall.The U.S. growth rate “requires a government checkbook for years to come,” Gross wrote. Coupled with Medicare and Social Security entitlements, government borrowing could reach 300 percent of GDP, meaning “the Chinese and other surplus nations cannot fund the deficit even if they were fully on board,” he wrote.China, the largest U.S. creditor, with $767.9 billion of debt, has shifted purchases of Treasuries into shorter-maturity securities amid concern about unprecedented debt sales.Yield CurveGeithner, speaking yesterday in an interview in Beijing with Chinese state media outlets, said he has “found a lot of confidence” in the U.S. economy during his trip to China.Investors should position themselves in the front end of the yield curve as long-term Treasury yields likely move higher, steepening the so-called yield curve, Gross wrote.Gross reduced his holdings of government-related bonds in the $150 billion Total Return Fund in April for the first time since January, according to company data. In addition to Treasuries, the government debt category can include inflation- linked Treasuries, so-called agency debt, interest-rate derivatives and bank debt backed by the FDIC.Yields on benchmark 10-year notes climbed as high as 3.75 percent on May 28, the most since November, rising from a record low of 2.04 percent on Dec. 18. the 10-year yield dropped three basis points today to 3.59 percent today.Currency DiversificationThe dollar weakened beyond $1.43 against the euro yesterday for the first time in 2009 on bets record U.S. borrowing will undermine the greenback, prompting nations to consider alternatives to the world’s main reserve currency.Russian President Dmitry Medvedev may discuss his proposal to create a new world currency when he meets counterparts from Brazil, India and China this month, Natalya Timakova, a spokeswoman for the president, told reporters yesterday. Russia’s proposals for the Group of 20 meeting in London in April included studying a supranational currency.The U.S. currency climbed 0.9 percent to $1.4177 per euro at 11:15 a.m. in New York, from $1.4303 yesterday, in the biggest intraday advance since May 27. The dollar traded at 95.75 yen, compared with 95.76.The government has pledged $12.8 trillion to open credit markets and snap the longest U.S. economic slump since the 1930s. The Fed will buy as much as $1.75 trillion in Treasuries and housing-related debt to drive down consumer borrowing costs. That could have “inflationary implications,” Gross said.No Exit“Our expectation is the government won’t be able to exit” from those positions, Gross said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio today. The programs “will be semi-permanent positions on their balance sheets.”For all the hand-wringing over the dollar’s slide, expanding deficits and declining credit ratings, the bond market shows international demand for American financial assets is as high as ever. The Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasuries on behalf of central banks and institutions from China to Norway rose by $68.8 billion, or 3.3 percent, in May, the third most on record, data compiled by Bloomberg show.The Total Return Fund rose 4.8 percent in 2008, beating 93 percent of its peers, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The fund has returned 1.5 percent this year, according to Pimco data.
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:08 pm
I don’t think that they are deluding themselves one bit. They are well aware of the economic situation. But at least they have money to purchase materials/energy.Mark
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:09 pm
Sad, sad, sad…End of a US eraGeneral Motors’ demise has been a long time coming. On Monday, it expired as a private, solvent company with a bankruptcy filing that embodies not just a sequence of failures by what was once the world’s largest company; not just the challenges of a car industry in crisis; but a mismanaged economic and social transformation.The basic facts of GM’s predicament are well known: the recession killed a company bled to anaemia by its incapacity to make cars people would buy. While the recession has run the whole car industry over a cliff – total capacity is 86 million vehicles a year, but annualised global sales have fallen to 56 million from 70 million in 2007 – some producers are suffering more than others. For this they have themselves to blame. GM’s primacy in the US guaranteed its global dominance after the second world war. Market power bred complacency, and GM’s US market share declined steadily from more than half to about 20 per cent.Japanese “transplants”, more efficient than the Big Three and unburdened by commitments to unions, built a lean car industry across the south. We should not lament this: median household income in Michigan is some $10,000 per year higher than in Alabama. Flint’s loss is Huntsville’s gain.Detroit’s political clout obscured this trade-off. It also kept GM alive for too long. The government should have let it file for bankruptcy earlier and limited its help to financing operations during bankruptcy to prevent a collapse of the supply chain. The government’s excessive coddling of GM has forced it to take a bloated equity stake to protect its money. The sooner it disinvests, the better; meanwhile it must shelter the business from political calculation.For some, GM’s fall is the final death knell for America’s labour aristocracy. In its heyday, unionised manufacturing supported a US blue-collar middle class with good wages and welfare benefits. But technological change has made well-paid blue-collar jobs rarer as rich economies, helped by globalisation, have shifted from industry to services.This historic change was inevitable. But its consequences could have been less painful. The government relied on large companies like GM to provide welfare benefits, and never put in place policies that could ease the post-industrial economic restructuring. Instead, the US applied the palliative of easy credit – sustaining an illusion of economic betterment for all. The illusion has now shattered – for America as well as for GM.
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:09 pm
Losers always blame everyone else!The US suckered them into this game and got stuck!Where’s the outrage over the US waging bloody wars of aggression? Who are the real F…ers?Mark
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:12 pm
I agree with FEDup Michelle, your comments are really welcomed!Mark
MM CA • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:16 pm
what starts in the west almsot always spreads east….check this chart out… quite the story…http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/_national/stress_index/
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:18 pm
GO AWAY. Yes, the same principle of racism are at the heart of this crap! This is an economics blog, not a Limbaugh fan club blog!Mark
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:23 pm
The basic premise of the demise of nation states will hold, no matter what anyone does about it.I don’t need to read the book. Simple observation is all that’s necessary.But as far as bashing California, well, there but the grace of god… (Michigan might crash harder) Lots of food comes from here; and food, you know, is one of the three necessities of life; you all will get this when you’re paying a much higher percentage of your expenses for food.Mark
Guest too • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:33 pm
Wednesday, June 3, 2009A TALE OF TWO COUNTRIES6/3/09Obsequious Ben Bernanke, appearing today before the House Budget Committee, has let loose with two whoppers of brobdingnagian proportions. First, Mr. Bernanke stated that the Fed “will not monetize” the federal budget deficit. In what world can that can be a true statement? The Fed is buying government securities at a clip not seen in our country’s history. The Fed is buying long term treasuries, apparently in an attempt, so far utterly failing, to flatten the yield curve, for the first time in years and with a degree of enthusiasm that makes the woman on the Progessive.com insurance commercials look like the picture of insouciance. By very definition, the Fed is monetizing the deficit, and doing it to a heretofore unwitnessed degree.Perhaps we can attribute even an iota of truth to Mr. Bernanke’s denial of monetizing the government’s debt by concentrating on tense, as in the Fed will not monetize the deficit, not that it has not monetized the deficit. For this attribution to be valid, however, one would have to conclude that Mr. Bernanke has been taking English lessons from Bill Clinton or is signaling a sudden policy change. The former is highly unlikely; Bernanke isn’t cool enough to hang out with Mr. Clinton, though one suspects he would like to be, hence forth the moniker I have attached to Obsequious Ben. The latter, while we can always hope, is even more unlikely.The second of Mr. Bernanke’s failed sockdolagers is that the Fed was “involved very unwillingly” in the bailouts that have characterized the Bush/Obama administration’s approach to “capitalism” and “free markets.” Unwillingly? The Fed’s balance sheet has expanded by a factor of greater than three over the last year due to the too numerous to tally bailouts in which it has involved itself and the attendant and aforementioned monetizing of the deficit. “Unwillingly?” How does Mr. Bernanke behave when engaging in an activity willingly?…..
Michelle • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:47 pm
Ben will continue to create dollars in order to repatriate those dollars. The Ponzi scheme will continue until we lose our reserve currency status.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:47 pm
Mark perhaps you should look in the mirror (or some of your numerous posts on matters “economic” or should I say political.Economics and politics are two sides of the same coin; just because some disagree with your politics doesn’t require you to attack, though that is the MO for many who reside in the extremes.
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:55 pm
Well, probably only conceptually. He’s still got a job. And, quite likely, a big bank account.Mark
Guest bul..... • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:56 pm
s,love the “sitting bull” handle, can i use aa variation of it?
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 9:59 pm
And it’s not just the financial stuff, think WMD!Mark
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:01 pm
Great gig if you can get it!Part of the marvels of the MSM. They do really good work!Mark
Guest too • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:02 pm
m,your laughable answer? i have been searching forit to no avail. i was thinking it was going tobe a highlight of my day but you didn’t post it?or am i too dim to have seen it? please share thatone. the, what is it, contango tango.??
Michelle • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:06 pm
Group hug! Thanks guys, I enjoy your posts, too! At least I know your identities, rather than the 100 guests that post daily.
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:11 pm
Getting people more equity won’t really do anything either. What made things work, and always has, is velocity of money. Having the “value” of your home increased might look good, but if no one can afford it (lost jobs, continuing debts etc.), then all it’s good for is bragging: until you discover that it helps increase the amount of property taxes that you pay (for ever-decreasing services). With interest rates creeping up this will only make it that much tougher for anyone to refinance or get a second mortgage (to “take advantage” of the increased equity).Somehow we’re in a corner and straight ahead is a cliff!Mark
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:13 pm
We can counter this by all becoming farmers! It was Henry Kissinger who once quipped “control the food and you control the people” (and this SOB is still alive and is still actively influencing worl affairs!)Mark
Michelle • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:22 pm
I guess I didn’t think anyone cared to read it as I’ve been ridiculed enough already today.Okay, here’s my answer:Solar flare activity, creating enough energy to ignite the world aglow. The sun burns itself out snuffing out all living things. Hearing about our formidable extinction, aliens inhabit our inhospitable planet in search of the holy grail: OIL! The banksters, having enough TARP money to fund space voyages prior to the ELL event, collaborate with these aliens so they too, can rip them off!
Chignos • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:26 pm
Well said. The trouble with Mark’s posts is that he cannot possibly know that of which he opines. For example, he continually rags that resources are limited (and implies that using them in a capitalist way is immoral), but the truth is that no one could really know this. One might as easily believe that there is a carbon (or gold, or uranium) cycle, just like there is an hydrological cycle. After all, there’s physics–the conservation of energy an all that (therefore also most likely conservation of space, conservation of time, conservation of matter, etc.). My guess is Mark never listens to an opposing point of view (prove it Mark, what did Limbaugh say today about Sotomajor?)–typical of narrow-minded ideologues. Personally I just had my world view rocked again today after googling “nanothermites” after viewingwww.911mysteries.comI’m not advocating any particular political persuasion, though I am most definitely a follower of Jesus Christ (Mark it’s a matter of faith and spiritual vision, there’s no way I would attempt to convert or prove it to you), but I would be most interested to know what the brains on this blog have to say after viewing these sites.
Chignos • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:28 pm
See above, Mark
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:33 pm
So I should be concerned that our President is leveraging his Muslim heritage to attempt to make peace with the people threatening to bomb us instead of marching out to obliterate them.He is untrustworthy because he misrepresents his identity? Which identity is that? His MUSLIM identity (Barak HUSSEIN Obama), or his Christian identity (as a member of Rev. Wright’s ‘racist’ congregation).So is he bad because he’s got Muslim roots, or is he bad because he’s a liberal Christian, or is he bad because he can use whichever facet works best with his audience…Or is he bad because you don’t like him and will take any excuse to justify your dislike.
Average Jane • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:33 pm
I’ve been reflecting lately, given our stressful times, of how well and truly We The American People have been manipulated into more and more extreme intolerance toward each other. I realized that almost everyone I know could be categorized as “one of “Those People.” Those [insert race here] people. Those gay people. Those fat people. Those welfare people. Those rich people. Those [insert religion here] people.Divide and Conquer on a colossal scale, and I am well and truly sick of it all.And yet there is one overarching issue, these days anyhow, that binds us all together: There’s Just Not Enough Money.Thirty years ago, I daresay there were about the same percentage of “those unhealthy people” in our population as there are now, and yet we now worry about our coworkers’ eating and exercising habits because if they don’t take care of themselves, They Cost Too Much Money.Thirty years ago, our employers provided our retirement plans as a benefit in exchange for our hard work. Now, pensions Cost Too Much Money. In fact, employees Cost Too Much Money. Now wages, if one is lucky enough to have a job, are forcibly redirected into the Stock Market Casino. Thirty years ago the middle class didn’t care about the DJIA because it was only for the high rollers. Now we are all watching the DJIA because we are all High Rollers.Thirty years ago, I learned about duty to my fellow Americans in a civics class. Now those classes no longer exist.What happened to live and let live? What happened to our common good? Where did our civil liberties go? Why are we more interested in who’s winning American Idol than we are in what’s happening at our state legislatures?Why have we let the moneychangers define our values?And when are we going to realize that our neighbors are not Those People—they’re just like us?I just had to let it out, folks. It’ll be better in the morning. Right?
Chignos • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:34 pm
This entire thread is meaningless and will be forgotten within 15 seconds of reading it.
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:39 pm
If the Third World doesn’t want to crash harder it will look to rebuke any offer to “boost” agriculture. Think Green Revolution. There are ways that others can be helped, but unfortunately the “help” will most likely come from big AG companies.NOTE: Saying that it’s a record harvest is meaningless in the face of record populations. Worldwide grain harvests have been slipping.Mark
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:43 pm
Not so fast! Matthew 5:5Mark
artichoke • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:45 pm
I hope it’s not too little too late … but in my opinion GM is now definitely making cars I would buy. Three years ago I bought a Chrysler, my alternative was a GM. I would probably buy a GM today (new models) if I were buying — I hope to keep the Chrysler a long time, it seems very durable and reliable.
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:46 pm
If you know what’s good for you you’ll stop watching FOX! Kill your TV before it drives you insane! I did! (and, well, many would say that I’m insane, but at least I’ve got a dead TV to show for it!
)Mark
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:56 pm
So, you’ve got a positive outlook? LOL Well, compared to mine that is
Think “economies of scale.” The impacts are far greater than most believe. Factories won’t be able to operate on reduced staff and capacity without incurring greater operating costs. Prices will have to be increased to reflect actual costs; and then there’s the impact of rising taxes. Isn’t Microsoft already threatening to shift more abroad if taxes are increased?No, it’s going to be much worse.Mark
Chignos • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:58 pm
Imagine this. Valerie Plame was “outed” as a CIA agent by (not Scooter Libby but) what’s ‘sname Armitage and……..that’s against the law. Now, all of a sudden because the left wants it, it’s perfectly ok to “out” the CIA operatives (by showing their pictures) because they’re waterboarding or otherwise “torturing” or “degrading” some detainee. Outing a CIA agent is still against the law, but that doesn’t matter anymore. Never mind that the whole sordid innuendo is unresolved therefore no American citizen can really know what went on. There won’t be any truth telling from any angle. That won’t stop the rhetoric, the partisanship, the emotional reaction to what the pictures might have showed, Never mind that that the whole scene might have been staged. We don’t get to see the pictures anyway, much less know their context.The point is: when are you gonna get smart about what you believe? You’re operating on insufficient information, therefore you’re not entitled to a firmly held opinion. The old saying is, “Don’t believe anything you hear and only half of what you see.” If Americans reserved that degree of skepticism for their political leaders, those politicians would have to remain on their toes, rather than their current practice of alcoholic dinner parties every night.
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:59 pm
OK, on the theme of childish art work (no offense to the creator of this, or to Tim, just a poor attempt to segway!):I am better than your kidsMark
Guest too lucy • June 3rd, 2009 at 10:59 pm
m,crack me up.you are clearly overqualified to be answeringany further questions on this blog. thanks for theresponse.repatriating dollars causes inflation, no? notsomething the fed ultimately wants. right now,some would be welcome, consistent with the reflationagenda.at a certain time the repatriation should be divertedsomewhere, say, africa? to avoid inflation and seedthe next bubble. no? if this fails hyperinlationensues?the aliens are hiding out there too (africa). they have a namefor them, i forgot what it is. the shape shifters.chitahuri? something like that…..anyway, ….irene, goodnight……..ps.speaking of solar flares, electrical disturbance.air france. ????
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:06 pm
our only hope… our only…hope
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:07 pm
It’s a three letter word starting with “W.”But, one could hardly do worse than directing money at something that’s more valuable than $$s.Mark
Anonymous • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:07 pm
The power held by those with money, by creditors over debtors, is too great. But the actual physical plant and natural resources on the world are fine.We need to reduce the power of money. Zero it out, inflate it away, whatever, and we can remove the power of the overlords.
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:11 pm
I was feeling pretty alone for quite a while. Now not so much. Thanks!Mark
Chignos • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:13 pm
So what? it wasn’t any different when I graduated from college. There were (according to the media) no jobs and the economy was in the dumper. 10 years later I still wasn’t making >$100K…SO WHAT? Is every American supposed to be rich beyond the world’s wildest expectations? Get some perspective, dozer. Life isn’t a picnic/free lunch. You have to get out there and create an income. Dozer/
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:14 pm
Yeah, and they end up consuming way more than those that aren’t institutionally educated.It’s not so much population as it is consumption that’s the problem. Yes, too many people for too few resources IS a recipe for disaster.Mark
Guest too blindly • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:17 pm
aj,i was thinking that “money” is never value. it isthe sovereigns attempt to capture and make liquidthe transfer of value by law, regardless of moralityjustice or ethics however people are indoctrinatedto believe that money is value and merely innocentcurrency.?
Chignos • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:17 pm
You people haven’t stopped to think about the fact that the last thing the stratospherically wealthy want to spend their time on is to hassle with ruling those who have a lot less. Think, nimwits!
Chignos • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:19 pm
See above, Mark.
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:21 pm
Need to change “Capitalism” to “Consumptionalism.”The most efficient way to destroy the planet.CleverMark
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:29 pm
Speaking of cutting pennies (this is good!):http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWt8hTayupEMark
Gues t too • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:41 pm
g,i think your response points directly tothe lack of organization expressed by asegment of the population that has seeninjustice and has been rendered impotentto address those injustices by coherentand socially accepted standards. is thisan accurate interpretation? no need toanswer, i’m sure it is correct, but feel freeto elaborate.
Gues t too • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:41 pm
g,i think your response points directly tothe lack of organization expressed by asegment of the population that has seeninjustice and has been rendered impotentto address those injustices by coherentand socially accepted standards. is thisan accurate interpretation? no need toanswer, i’m sure it is correct, but feel freeto elaborate.
Chignos • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:42 pm
Try to understand economics. How ’bout we just out law health insurance altogether? That would make health care affordable immediately by definition.
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:43 pm
I agree with you Gloomy, there is no clear up or down. The economy is peregrinating in an erratic fashion. Gold, for example is up $100/oz in a month, but it could easily fall back in the next month.
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:44 pm
But, but, but… Bush told us that the economy was fine, that it was sound!Where’s I.F. Stone?Mark
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:52 pm
Pretty damning evidence FOR disaster!But this tended to raise my eyebrows:The key question is whether housing prices will go crashing through the trend line and fall well below fair value. Unfortunately, this is very likely.I’ve got to wonder why they necessarily think that an additional 5% to 10% drop will hit the “fair value” mark. What IS “fair value?” Isn’t it what the market will bear? If they’ve got some insight into the magic numbers then shouldn’t the big financial firms be able to positively state where they really stand?Seems that some otherwise trenchant comments can totally get derailed by some pretty odd/sloppy statements. (like, for instance, Dr. Roubini talking about getting back to “sustainable ‘growth’”)Mark
Guest • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:53 pm
Wauseon plant to open Monday for 110-mpg car engines | Doug Pelmear says his engine more than quadruples the efficiency of the average car engine.By LARRY P. VELLEQUETTETOLEDO BLADE BUSINESS WRITER(May 30, 2009) WAUSEON – The man who drove his 20-year-old Mustang from Napoleon, Ohio, to Las Vegas and back last year on 39 gallons of fuel will open his first manufacturing facility Monday to allow others to get 110 miles per gallon.Doug Pelmear, owner of Horse Power Sales.net Inc. and Hp2G LLC, will hold an open house Monday morning in the idle 100,000-square-foot factory he has leased in Wauseon to begin manufacturing his revolutionary engine.The factory, on the Fulton Industries Inc. campus in Wauseon, will be tooled to initially turn out 20 of Mr. Pelmear’s custom engines per day with one shift of 25 workers.A Decatur, Ind., specialty car company, Revenge Designs Inc., has contracted with Mr. Pelmear to purchase 2,000 engines for use in a new vehicle it plans to unveil at the end of this year at the Los Angeles International Auto Show. The vehicle is to be called the Revenge Verde Super Car, which will use Mr. Pelmear’s 400-horsepower engine and its 500 foot-pounds of torque to travel up to 200 mph and get 110 mpg – though admittedly not at the same time.”The engine is going to be a really great partnership with the car,” explained Emily Levault, a spokesman for Revenge Design. “The idea behind this was to give people what they want while putting people back in their jobs.”Ms. Levault said the Verde will be introduced as both a left and right-hand drive, so that it can be marketed around the world. She said details of its pricing have not been released.Mr. Pelmear has said that he employs more precise tolerances and manufacturing techniques to decrease heat and energy loss and increase the efficiency of the internal combustion engine. He said he has more than quadrupled the industry average engine efficiency of about 8 percent.Mr. Pelmear’s company employs eight people, and he said he’ll “take resumes” on Monday, but won’t accept applications, for what would be his first shift of production workers. Depending on how the plant start-up goes, Mr. Pelmear said, “we’ll probably add another 25 over the next three months after that.” Mr. Pelmear did not say what workers will be paid.http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090530/BUSINESS03/905300338
Chignos • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:54 pm
As long as our trading partners monitize their debt at the same rate as we do (or perhaps a little variation on that theme) there won’t be any inflation. What is the alternative to the USD? Have you ever even seen rand? How many ounces of gold have you ever seen? Be serious.
Mark • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:56 pm
But… why should a failed system continue? At what point does one toss in the towel?We know what the equation is, and the current system comes up with “42!”Mark
Chignos • June 3rd, 2009 at 11:59 pm
You’re just lost aren’t you, Average Jane? I feel so sorry for you, tsk tsk….and your country.
Mark • June 4th, 2009 at 12:30 am
But where do you see this stopping? I’d asked this a LONG time ago (posed this general question to ALL): what happens when EVERYONE is inflating? Doesn’t it just show that it’s all too un-real, too virtual?Mark
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 12:34 am
So why bother posting?
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 12:45 am
No, life isn’t a picnic and no not everyone will be rich. Obviously you have to work to create an income. But the point of the article is that current graduates are starting that much further behind and will have to work that much harder just to catch up, never mind excel. This means that they won’t have as much disposable income to spend and they won’t be paying as much in taxes. Which then leads to a problem both with economic growth and funding the current entitlement programs. We’re already looking at two workers to every one retiree, down from the six to one ratio when Social Security was implemented, and now those two workers will have to contribute a higher percentage (thanks to diminished income) to support that one retiree. Something has to give somewhere and the solution doesn’t look to be as simple as telling recent graduates to “work harder.”
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 12:47 am
That’s what henchmen are for.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 1:04 am
So, this has played out before, in exactly the same way? Really? Amazing how so many people know precisely how everything will work out in the future, having never experienced such a unique set of circumstances before. It must be so comforting to be so secure as to believe an unproven theory to be unequivocal fact.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 1:14 am
[Mark] continually rags that resources are limited (and implies that using them in a capitalist way is immoral), but the truth is that no one could really know this. True, true. There might just be a black hole at the center of the earth from which magically new resources are created. It is POSSIBLE that the earth is not a closed system. But until we have a tally of EVERYTHING, there is always going to be a bit of statistical uncertainty. But then, if you have trouble with projections, probabilities, or uncertainty, you shouldn’t be looking at economics.One might as easily believe that there is a carbon (or gold, or uranium) cycle, just like there is an hydrological cycle.And spontaneous generation might actually transpire on a macro scale… After all, there’s physics–the conservation of energy an all that (therefore also most likely conservation of space, conservation of time, conservation of matter, etc.).You might try brushing up on your physics before offering inane comments. Let me know when the TOE is finished and validated. My guess is Mark never listens to an opposing point of view At least you weren’t hypocritical enough to attempt to state this as fact.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 1:17 am
Ethics and honesty could be considered “fetters.”
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 2:49 am
air france????Unsilent Generation – It is conceivable that the materials used to construct parts of the Airbus 330 might have been a factor in the loss of Air France 447. While we may never know for sure whether structural issues contributed to the plane’s plunge into the Atlantic, the crash raises urgent questions that reach beyond even the untimely deaths of 228 people: Composite aircraft parts figure more and more in the future of commercial aviation, with the two biggest manufacturers preparing to roll out high-composite-content jets next year.These carbon-fiber composites – basically, a form of plastic – are lighter than the aluminum they replace, which stands to cut down significantly on fuel costs. But any weaknesses in parts built of composite may be impossible to detect during routine ground inspections – at least without costly testing methods that the manufacturers insist are unnecessary.If critics of the new high-composite-content aircraft are right about their risks, then we may once again be facing a situation where the corporate profits of the aerospace and airline industries are placed before public safety, while the government declines to intervene.http://unsilentgeneration.com/2009/06/03/air-france-447-structural-flaws/
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 3:26 am
I like your plan the more I re-read it, SB. Let’s see…More of us get back to our own plain good senses about the virtues of moderation of consumption and moderation in general, we chop the wealth extreme at the top of the crushing heap and put it at the bottom to lessen the pressure and struggle-pain and costs on everybody, we become 21st Century better-informed, better-connected, clearer-thinking, response-able citizens active in ruling themselves like democracy says…and we don’t even starve on your plan, seeings how we get to eat pie an’ all.I’m up for all of that.
Enquiring minds want to know • June 4th, 2009 at 3:52 am
Chignos, do you get paid to be the unnofficial mascot of the life-sucking, love-sucking, anti-nurturing, murderous oppressive patriarchy we are enduring, or is your obnoxious paternalistic condescension just a volunteer gig?
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 4:11 am
You’re not even going to attempt to rationalize away the important points brought before you? You can’t see that it’s ludicrous to give private industry all the plums and government the hamstringing, and then use that to discredit the idea of government being able to cover everyone without “rationing” (nice euphemism for with-holding!) care?You’re not going to say you think it would be a great idea to spend on healthcare instead of global military adventures?You’re just going to say I’m in denial and that’s that?Really?
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 4:18 am
Exactly.I’m amazed there was one person left who hadn’t figured that out or been told yet.
Pecos Banker • June 4th, 2009 at 4:29 am
I wonder if California should be entitled to federal aid considering that it is their proposition 13 which is partly responsible for their shortfalls. Get rid of that first and then ask for a handout from the feds. Can’t have your cake and eat it too.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 4:51 am
http://prorev.com/indexa.htmBAUCUS DISSES SINGLE PAYER SUPPORTERS AGAIN[Are they kidding?! Is this a JOKE? Baucus dares come out now with 'Darn but it's simply not possible because it's too late'...to make the smart economic AND morally right move?]After Downing Street – Senator Max Baucus met with advocates for single-payer healthcare, including Senator Bernie Sanders, and told them that he might drop criminal charges against 13 people arrested for speaking up in his hearings, but that he would not include any supporters of single-payer health coverage in any future hearings.According to one report, Baucus suggested that he’d been mistaken to exclude single-payer but asserted that the process of creating healthcare reform legislation was too far along now to correct that omission.Senator Sanders said after the meeting that if healthcare reform did not create a single-payer system it shouldn’t be done at all, and that within three or four years we would realize we’d solved nothing. He said that it would be better to increase funding for community health centers and take steps to make it easier for medical students to go into primary care, than to enact major reforms that didn’t go to the root of the problem.Sanders has a bill that makes some of the changes he advocates, as well as a bill to facilitate the creation by states of single-payer healthcare systems. Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin has introduced resolutions on the same topic in the House. . .Rose Ann DeMoro, executive director of the California Nurses Association – National Nurses Organizing Committee and national vice president of the AFL-CIO, said the fight for single-payer is a civil rights movement, and that people “have to turn up the heat.” When someone questions the political viability of single payer, she said, we should question “allowing people to die and suffer for lack of political will.”. . .Dr. Oliver Fein, president of
hysicians for a National Healthcare Plan and associate dean at Weill Medical College of Cornell University, said that he and his colleagues had asked Baucus for a full hearing on the merits of single payer and asked for the Congressional Budget Office to create a comparison of single payer with whatever plan Congress produces that is not single payer. Senator Sanders said that he would continue to push Baucus to hold a hearing.**Sweet Jesus! With all the resources and energy already marshalled in calling for them, WHY can’t we get this full hearing on the merits of single payer, and WHY can’t we have the comparison of single payer with whatever Congress produces that isn’t single payer?
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 5:03 am
AJ, what you are saying is the real cause behind why there is no money for social security while there are trillions for Pentagon.
Guestwink • June 4th, 2009 at 6:13 am
Just skimming through this block quickly, but wanted to agree out loud with Chignos that Rush Limbaugh certainly does typify narrow-minded idealogues. What on earth is Mark doing listening to an exceptionally illogical wanker like Limbaugh?
Anonymous • June 4th, 2009 at 7:57 am
The Battle for Belief: A Sociologist’s Research in 9/11 Argumentation
We are at war, and one of the most critical and dangerous frontline is not in Afghanistan, Iraq or Iran. Rather, it is the battleground within the human psyche. Individual and collective minds are waging psychological warfare in what promises to be one of the most intense struggles in American history, if not all of human history. How do we communicate the truth about the events of 9/11 to those who have been deceived by the operation and its cover-up in the media? Are logic, reason, and science enough?In the “battle for belief”, Person A offers truth demonstrating reality while Person B, knowingly or unknowingly, transmits lies and perpetuates myth. At the end of the day, the one with the most credibility wins. This much is supposed by Dr. Mark Jones, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Sociology at Colorado College, who is embarking on a research project to study how both sides of a controversial issue communicate their ideas…
(full story at: http://www.ae911truth.org/info/61)
Chignos • June 4th, 2009 at 7:59 am
OK, then how about “work wiser?”
Michelle • June 4th, 2009 at 8:07 am
Finally, someone that gets it! This is why one must be cautious in relying too heavily on the last year’s SuperBowl Champion’s playbook.”So, this has played out before, in exactly the same way? Really? Amazing how so many people know precisely how everything will work out in the future, having never experienced such a unique set of circumstances before. It must be so comforting to be so secure as to believe an unproven theory to be unequivocal fact.”Uncharted territory, difficult to know precisely how things shake out, however, I continue with my guestimate that Heli Ben will continue to inflate, along with the other central banks, until the burden of debt is deflated to realistic levels.
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 8:28 am
Have we not learned anything? Prop it up with smoke and mirrors is the new game..FHA Loans: Return to 0% DownA new Federal Housing Administration program will let first-time home buyers use their $8,000 tax credit for down payments or closing costsThe days of home buying with little or no money down may be back—this time thanks to Uncle Sam.Blamed for contributing to the housing bubble, zero-down-payment loans largely vanished when the market crashed and Congress blocked seller financing for government-backed loans. Now the federal government will be forking over cash at closing.Buyers who haven’t owned a home for three years or longer are eligible for an $8,000 tax credit, thanks to a provision in this winter’s stimulus package. Now, under a little-noticed program announced May 29, the Federal Housing Administration will steer the funds to cover closing costs directly—in some cases even offsetting the 3.5% minimum down payment FHA loans require. That’s enough to cover most or all of the down payment and fees for homes up to the U.S. median price, now about $169,000
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 8:33 am
The solution to the bond vigilantes in to restore progressive taxation at all levels so that the megarichcan pull their weight. We all know the story of Warren Buffett and his secretary. She pays more taxes than he does proportionately. The marginal rates on the rich must go up. The capital gains rate and the dividendgains rate must go up. There must be a Tobin tax typestructure. IS THIS GOING TO HAPPEN? NO. The rich own the government. SO WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN? There will be a MORE REGRESSIVE VALUE ADDED TAX INSTITUTEDTO OPPRESS THE MIDDLE CLASS OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT.You can kiss health reform goodbye!Since we can’t raise taxes on the rich and we just GOTROYALLY LOOTED BY THE BANKS, WE HAVE NO MORE MONEY.The solution will be to dismantle all our economic stabilizers of social programs and run an AUSTERITYBUDGET for a country that is heavily unemployed and indebted. I HAVE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE!!!This is the model criticized by Joseph Stiglitz as the IMF creditor collection model for underdeveloped countries. The bond vigilantes can be easily appeasedby raising taxes on the wealthy to get our country on course. Marginal rates were very high on the wealthy through times of trouble in our country. So what is the critique of this policy. The rich will take their money elsewhere in the world to avoid taxation. The wealthy are participating in this PRESENT COMMODITIESTEMPORARY BUBBLE. There must be coordinated taxation treaties to tax speculative market transactions to raise capital to defray all the BANK BAILOUTS. WHY IS NOBODY TALKING ABOUT THE SHARE SACRIFICE OF THE GLOBAL WEALTHY TO RESTORE THE BUDGETS OF THE COUNTRIESTHAT HAVE BAILED OUT THE BANKERS?We will be sold a bill of goods to save the integrity of the budget balance process by sacrifice by the lower classes.
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 8:34 am
Read the article- it describes all about CDO’s, CDS and how Wall street and the banks had no consceince on screwing main stret maerica and small town government…Pretty sick and disgusting stuff… they should all be prosecuted… It feels horrible to know that they live in this country and would screw children out a good education amongst other things….The Looting of America: How Wall Street Fleeced Millions from Wisconsin SchoolsWall Street investment houses went after the $100 billion saved in school-district trust funds like Whitefish Bay’s, and made a killing.http://www.alternet.org/workplace/140208/?page=entire
thimma • June 4th, 2009 at 8:54 am
Nope, never heard of 10-10-10 bu Suzy Welch.@MM CA – yes it will be misery. But I think USA will get through it and emerge on the other side with China almost equaling it in GDP.
TfT • June 4th, 2009 at 8:59 am
@ Michelle (at 2009-06-03 19:18:17)You are very welcome. And I concur FEDup’s comment on 2009-06-03 19:59:53 and appreciate your kindness (and a number of others) to share your thoughts herein. (Also thank to the professor for the place.)In fact, I try to grasp your thoughts as much as possible.As a side note, it is challenging to be a parent. Having four kids as you is admirable. Best wishes to you.
TfT • June 4th, 2009 at 9:12 am
Main stream media really becomes a good part of the US gigantic propaganda machine:Exhibit 1Title: Productivity increases more than expected in 1QSub-title: Productivity increases more than expected in 1Q, as layoffs rise faster than output fallsExhibit 2Title: Jobless benefit rolls fall, initial claims dip
The total jobless benefit rolls fell by 15,000 to 6.7 million, the first drop since early January. Continuing claims had set record highs every week since the week ending Jan. 24. The continuing claims data lag initial claims by one week.
When the extended unemployment benefits run out, would the continuous claims fall starting at some point??Another interesting news today: Wal-Mart says it will create 22,000 jobs in 2009
Those positions include plenty of cashiers and stock clerks, but the world’s largest retailer will also be adding store managers, pharmacists and personnel workers.
I wonder what the percentage of cashiers and stock clerks is for the 22,000 positions. But it is better than nothing, isn’t it? In the past decades, Walmartization is going on- make workers earn less so they have to make purchases at WalMart rather than make workers earn enough so they may purchase what they make.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 9:24 am
@Mark:”The System is predicated on GROWTH, and as such, is doomed for failure, period. In the final analysis talking has very little to do with its outcome.”Of course, you are correct. And that is one issue that is not spoken much about.However, the discussion was about foreseeing or not foreseeing this recession. I mentioned peoples beliefs about the consequences of publicly admitting what they forecast, as this is a factor on what some have been willing to say.And I happen to believe that there is system of “reward” and “punishment” that also dictates what people say or do not say. That is why some economists only say what they are paid to say. I thought you were referring to some system similar to that, one that governs essentially what is being told us (through the mass media). From what you are saying I gather that you were actually referring to the entire growth-oriented economical system as a whole.
FEDup • June 4th, 2009 at 9:26 am
Oh no! You have just discovered the Walmart “Master Plan of Retail Domination”. Hide your identity or Walmart may ban you from all their stores; on second thought, that may not work as eventually they may be the ONLY retailer left!
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 9:27 am
if china move away from export model, their trade surplus, well it is gonna go down whether they like or not as USA people spend less. china will have to shift focus to domestic/asia region trade. all mean, no more china pushing the long date rate down -> long date rate like 10/30 years will all go up gradually. not just china, probably Japan and Russia will be doing it too, they are all biggest USA debt holders. rates only have one way to go, UP UP UP.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 9:28 am
I thought there may be grain of truth in the 9/11 “truthers,” but not give it much more thought. During the election they kept screaming on street corners “The towers fell too fast!” And Bill Clinton kept shaking his finger at them saying in so many words that they were goof-balls.After seeing an architect in a local news clip, I went to ae911truth.org website. I decided to give it an honest read and went through the 563 slide, two hour presentation (I kept it in a separate tab and it took several days of on and off reading).All I have to say is Damn, the SOBs actually pulled off a Red Flag event.The reason that the truthers were yelling about the how fast the towers fell is that simple physics (even cartoon physics) says that when something falls on top of something else the else offers resistance and slows the something. But the top of the building fell as if there was nothing under it. The massive central core of 2″ thick 3ftX2ft box columns offered no resistance. And when it was over, all there was was dust and structural steal — all broken into similar 32ft sections.You may be thinking so what? Well, the what is that you have no reference point. The architects do a great job of describing how build fail and what they look like when they fail.The most important point, I guess, is how they use the scientific method to analyze the know data, the government’s explanations, and the government contractor’s explanations. Of course it does not add up and you are inexorably drawn to one conclusion — the towers and WTC7 were demolished with explosives.
FEDup • June 4th, 2009 at 9:33 am
As the church lady on SNL would say “Well, isn’t that special?” So our brilliant politicians give the ultimate incentive (zero down) for new buyers to walk away from their houses when times get tough again (99.9% probability). These people MUST be removed from politics!
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 9:34 am
“When the extended unemployment benefits run out, would the continuous claims fall starting at some point??”I think what they are really excited about is that new jobless claims haven’t exceeded the expired claims, thus a decrease in the continuous claims. But the expired claims also mean less consumer spending…
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 9:36 am
So, professor, when is your new analysis coming in light of new data? Make more sense of it for us…
FEDup • June 4th, 2009 at 9:45 am
Another glaring testament as to the power of the health insurance lobbyist’s profit motives and self serving interests of our elected officials taking precedence over what the majority of health care providers and people desire. Perhaps the time will come when the public decides “it’s too late to talk” about further injustices inflicted on them by our representatives and they will forcibly be removed from office.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 9:49 am
BINGO.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 9:51 am
Dr. Roubini is waiting for the market to post a -3% day so that he can start talking bearishly without being laughed out of the room.
JLarkin • June 4th, 2009 at 10:07 am
It is commonly acknowledged that consumer spending is 70% of the $13 tn economy. So how can gov’t spending be 50%??
Anonymous • June 4th, 2009 at 10:19 am
that would be next Wed, June 10.
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 10:20 am
U6 is approaching 18% that is over 20 million peoplecurrent people on unemployment insurance is approx 6.8 million which last approx 59 weeks in most stateswe are now in a runrate where roughly 600K fall off insurance as 600k join inusrance…there are NO JOBS and NO JOB Creation going on… Walmart adding 22K job at 10 .00 an hour does nothing to help, in fact it hurts…. and niether does 2 million census workers at 10.00 an hour…Dont believe the positive spins, this is absolutley brutal and horrible for those losing thier jobs and our economy… the impact of these monthly run rates will not be felt for months in terms of folks not being to pay thier mortgaes, pay thier bills, spend, etc….Unemployment should nto be treated as lagging indicator as to the health of the eceonomy, it is now a forward indicator of probelms to come…THERE ARE NO JOBS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 10:20 am
Another sign of a failed political and financial system in the throes of desperation–more evidence of the force of the real economy wielding its relentless power, destroying the pillars of the false prosperity, tearing asunder the papered facade of fiat money, revealing the nothingness hidden behind the faked production, exposing the puniness of self-dealing central planners, of self-serving mice and men. In the end, the economy wins.Ozymandias | Percy Bysshe ShelleyI met a traveller from an antique landWho said: `Two vast and trunkless legs of stoneStand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,Tell that its sculptor well those passions readWhich yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.And on the pedestal these words appear –”My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!”Nothing beside remains. Round the decayOf that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,The lone and level sands stretch far away.
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 10:21 am
thats what Michele said too or was it june 12th
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 10:29 am
also data suggests that 90% of folks who lose a job during recession/depression never again make what they were making. that my friends is called wage destruction by Big business…http://www.idahostatesman.com/235/story/790098.html?storylink=omni_popular
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 10:39 am
Morphing into Third World territory, your government at work. As General Motors (Detroit) goes, so goes the nation—one-third in poverty, 32% of students graduated…every man an island:June 3 (Bloomberg) — General Motor Corp.’s bankruptcy…Michigan already has lost 780,000 jobs this decade, the most of any state. Its April unemployment rate of 12.9 percent was the highest in the country.The fourth-largest U.S. city for four decades starting in the 1930s, Detroit now ranks 11th. Its population of 916,952 is less than half the peak of 1.85 million in 1950.Now, with 6 of the 12 plants on GM’s bankruptcy hit list located in the state, Michigan and Detroit are bracing for what may be an accelerated exodus of people and jobs.“People have no job, no home, no credit and no reason to stay,” said Bob Daddow, deputy executive of Oakland County in suburban Detroit, which expects to lose one-third of its property-tax revenue from 2007 to 2011. “We’re very much still on a downward spiral and we haven’t hit bottom yet. I don’t see anything that will be good with the bankruptcy of GM.” …One-third of the population of Detroit, GM’s hometown, lives in poverty. That’s the most of any U.S. city with more than 250,000 people and almost triple the national rate. Public schools graduate 32 percent of their students, according to a study by Michigan State University, compared with the national average of 72 percent.GM’s Michigan employment has plunged to 47,330 today from 482,000 in 1978…http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a7IYfjQkC2RM
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 10:46 am
Divide and conquer = diversity.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 11:03 am
@Guest on 2009-06-03 22:33:28″So is he bad because he’s got Muslim roots, or is he bad because he’s a liberal Christian, or is he bad because he can use whichever facet works best with his audience.”I think you have captured the essence of the stated concern in your third alternative: e.g. say/do whatever to achieve an end.This is not an issue of religion but one of values, integrity and credibility.
Chignos • June 4th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Right. Inflate away debt bubbles created by the imprudent/greedy PTB. Mark, Fiat currency is always virtual, as is the full faith and credit of the USD/USG. What will happen this time? Who knows? One thing for sure: it won’t be exactly like any other time.
Chignos • June 4th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Right. Inflate away debt bubbles created by the imprudent/greedy PTB. Mark, Fiat currency is always virtual, as is the full faith and credit of the USD/USG. What will happen this time? Who knows? One thing for sure: it won’t be exactly like any other time.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 11:27 am
5,115 (FIVE THOUSAND, ONE HUNDRED FIFTEEN)RETIRED California government workersreceive pensionsin excess of $100,000from CalPERS.They’re all listed here.The information below was obtained under the Freedom of Information Act from the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS)… [does not include county and city government employees]This list may be be updated periodically with more pensioners as more data is obtained…Search the $100,000 Pension Club database …THE TOP 10 LIST–monthly– and–annual–retirement compensation:BRUCE MALKENHORST– 41,639.57– 499,674.84–VERNONJOAQUIN FUSTER– 24,712.99– 296,555.88– UC LOS ANGELESDONALD GERTH– 23,171.22– 278,054.64– CSU SACRAMENTOJAMES STAHL– 22,145.08– 265,740.96– L A CO SANIT #2JOHN SCHLAG– 21,300.04– 255,600.48– UC LOS ANGELESWILLIAM GARRETT– 21,228.81– 254,745.72– EL CAJONRAYMOND PATCHETT– 19,969.65– 239,635.80– CARLSBADROBERT TOONE JR– 19,412.28– 232,947.36– PALMDALEDIANNE OKI– 19,263.68– 231,164.16– STATE COMP INSCARL BORONKAY– 18,734.40– 224,812.80– METROPOLITAN WT…http://www.californiapensionreform.com/calpers/P.S. No market worries for the government retired. Says CalPERS:”CalPERS: Managing Through the Market Downturn”"The news in the financial markets can be alarming for our members, but it is important for you to know that the current credit crisis does not affect our ability to pay benefits. It is also important to note that your retirement benefits are protected by law. The pension system is designed to withstand market fluctuations…”Don’t you wish…
Chignos • June 4th, 2009 at 11:29 am
Yes, of course they pay me, but there’s just not enough money…..tsk.
Softwarengineer • June 4th, 2009 at 11:32 am
HI MICHELLEThat was then, now is now. The unofficial unemployment rate is like 25% today, yes, years ago you could sometimes get a fairly good job after college, today its horrifyingly bleek. Ask the recent graduates.Another thing, if you have a good paying college educated job and you’re a young adult with limited experience, remember in most cases: “Last one hired, first one laid off”. Ask an employment related attorney, he’ll agree with me.
Anonymous • June 4th, 2009 at 11:36 am
Or, a passenger got an explosive on board the plane and blew it up. I want to see the passenger list with names, not just nationalities of passengers.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 11:37 am
Michelle,I have no doubts you are a smart woman, but I think your judgment is being clouded by your own agenda. As for listening to brokers, I don’t do it. I’d rather live and die by my own sword.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 11:46 am
Michelle, don’t allow the minority to keep you from being you. Many and I bet most of us look forward to your sharing. You have offered up much that I enjoy consuming.hlowe
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 11:52 am
Have you noticed that when a state such as California runs short of money, the state employees have to take one or two days off a month without pay, but when private companies run short of money the employees have to take a 20% cut in pay…and keep working?
CuriousGeorge • June 4th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
What is magical about the June dates?
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
“The world, in my view, is changing and is shifting away from the financial types to producers of real goods, and this is going to last for several decades as it always has. This may sound strange but it always happens this way. Ten years from now, it may be farmers who will drive the Lamborghinis and the stock brokers will drive tractors or taxis at best.” Jim Rogers
Cahill • June 4th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
So Walmart is hiring 22K workers….big F’n deal. People are losing 50K + jobs a year to be replaced by $10 an hour jobs after spending fortunes on years of education and the market rally’s? GM files bankruptcy and we rally? The worthless financial analyst’s and news media make it out to to be huge. What is wrong with people, how much longer can we hide our heads in the sand?
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
From “Fund Managers can become farmers: Jim Rogers”: The Economic Times 4 Jun 2009Q: Stocks are rising even as fiscal deficit is widening. Somewhere it has to snap…A: It’s going to snap. Later this year, next year, we are going to have currency problems, maybe even a currency crisis. I don’t know with which currency – maybe with the pound sterling, maybe with the US dollar, who knows. It may be with something none of us have at the moment. When you have a currency crisis, stocks will be affected, many things will be affected. It is not sound, what’s happening out there in the world.In the 1930s, we had a huge stock market bubble which popped. And then politicians started making many mistakes. They became protectionist. They made solvent banks take over insolvent banks and then both banks failed in the end.They are doing many of the same mistakes now. What’s different this time is that we are printing huge amounts of money which they did not print at that time. So, we are going to have inflation this time…Q: The possibility of a sovereign default in the developed world could further depress sentiments. You think it’s possible?A: In 1918, the UK was the richest and the most powerful country in the world. Within one generation it was in shambles, within two-and-a-half generations it defaulted. The UK defaulted in 1970s and had to be bailed out by the IMF. Many of the countries in the developed world are in serious trouble right now.Iceland has already defaulted. I think there could be a currency crisis because of sovereign debt problems .later this year, next year or 2011. Developed nations have defaulted before. Remember the Asian crisis. It was a default of one kind or the other. It has happened before and it will happen again…Q: That naturally brings us to the debate on a new international reserve currencyA: Several countries have raised the issue once again. The US dollar is terribly flawed right now. Something has to be done to the US dollar and something will be done just as something was done about the pound sterling. After World War II, people stopped using the pound sterling and converted to the dollar for many reasons. Something’s going to be done about the dollar.We are much closer to be doing something about it or will be forced to do something about it. India was forced to change in 1991 and the world will be forced to change the currency situation in the foreseeable future.Q: There is already an underlying fear that this mountain of cash will chase assets and eventually force central banks to mop up liquidity. How do you think this would play out?A: I know they all say, ‘Don’t worry, we will reverse gears and take the excess liquidity out in time.’ I don’t believe them for a minute. No one has ever done it that way. When central bankers started trying to, it caused so much pain that they quickly reversed or have got rid of that central banker and put somebody else in.I just don’t think they could do it. That’s why I am worried about the bond market and the inflation. If all central banks do it together, that’s going to lead to higher unemployment, riots in the streets, civil unrests…http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Opinion/Interviews/Fund-Managers-can-become-farmers-Jim-Rogers/articleshow/4610704.cms?curpg=4
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Guest Post: Update on Global Pension Tension – June 2009(Submitted to Naked Capitalism by Leo Kolivakis, publisher of Pension Pulse. June 4, 2009)It’s time to revisit global pension tension. Here are some of the stories covering the global assault on pensions:· CPP reforms will squeeze early retirees: Big changes to Canada Pension Plan benefits, announced last week, were overshadowed by news of a larger-than-expected federal deficit.· N..B. Investment Management Corp. reports pension funds fall 18.3%: The province’s pension plans suffered an 18.3 per cent loss last year due to the dramatic decline in global equity markets, according to the New Brunswick Investment Management Corp. The value of net assets under management shrank by $1.6 billion in fiscal 2008-09, finishing the year with $7 billion.· Air Canada unions may seek stake in pension talks: Air Canada’s unions will be looking for some concrete financial guarantees to backstop their pensions, including the possibility of taking a stake in the airline, when they collectively meet with management later this week to determine whether they will support a moratorium on their pension payments.· Iberia says BA pension very important to merger: Iberia and British Airways have no pre-determined deadline to complete merger talks, the Spanish carrier said on Wednesday, but added it was closely watching what burden BA’s pension fund would impose as part of the merger process.· BP and Barclays Propose Pension Restrictions to Cut Expenses: BP, Europe’s second-largest oil company, will close its final-salary pension plan to new U.K. workers, and Barclays Plc may ask 18,000 employees to give up similar benefits that the bank says have become too costly.· Crunch ‘an excuse to cut pensions’: The joint leader of the UK’s biggest trade union has accused employers of using the recession as an excuse to permanently cut pensions. Derek Simpson of Unite said the union would back workers if they decided to stand up to firms which were “hell bent” on eroding pension benefits. Mr Simpson expressed “outrage” at a series of announcements in recent days, including a move by Barclays to shut its final salary pension scheme to further contributions from existing members.· Paterson Vetoes Pension Guarantee for N.Y. Police, Firefighter: New York Governor David Paterson vetoed a bill that would prevent newly hired police and firefighters from getting less generous pension benefits than their senior colleagues, ending a guarantee the Legislature had extended for almost 30 years.· Delphi Salaried Retirees To Lose Pension Benefits: For these salaried retirees — and thousands more like them — the latest news from Delphi only adds more insult to injury. The bankrupt parts-maker now wants to get rid of its under-funded pension plan for former white-collar workers — meaning the federal Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation will take it over.· Hungary struggles to rein in runaway pension costs: The country’s poor demographics, failed reform, heavy and ineffective taxation, a skewed labour market and heavy debt burden all threaten the system with collapse and require quick action, analysts say.· Network Rail pension deficit swells by 80%: The owner of Britain’s rail system has seen its pension deficit nearly double after a 25 per cent fall in the value of its assets.· ECB Staff Plan Strike Over Pay, Pension Terms: European Central Bank union staff are planning the first labor action in the ECB’s 10-year history by walking off their jobs for 90 minutes on Wednesday. Union leaders warn that unless they get more of a say over how pensions and pay are set, there could be more.· UK faces ‘lost generation’ of pension savers: Many young people are failing to understand how much they need to save to maintain their standard of living in retirement – and are just choosing not to retire.· Another watershed for final salary pensions: Dr Ros Altmann is a former adviser to No. 10 on pensions. Here she explains that while private sector final salary schemes are finished, public sector schemes remain underwritten by the taxpayer.· Finally, McGuinty says he can’t understand Harper’s refusal to talk pension reform: Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s refusal to hold a national summit on pension reform is baffling, Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty said Tuesday as he predicted the issue would be intensely debated at the annual premiers’ meeting in Regina this summer…http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
Guest339 • June 4th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
PeteCA, the other day you mentioned that you began seriously studying economics only in recent years. Are there a few books you recommend for someone who has only a basic understanding of economics?
Hubbs • June 4th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
A way out of this mess? For Ben Bernanke, I dedicate this obscure, unfinished song that I stumbled upon.Appropriately titled: The Dreamerhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUS2ZLwr6As.
Michelle • June 4th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
How can you say that the last one hired is always the first one laid off? I don’t hire and fire people based on tenure, rather I evaluate each employee based on attributes important to the organization as a whole.Certainly work experience factors into a hiring decision as it MAY make it easier for me to make a final decision only in cases where the candidates are closely matched. But even then I’d evaluate the type of work experience and how it may relate to the current and future needs of the organization.I can tell you I will gladly hire a college graduate with an outgoing personality and strong skills with little or no work history versus an equally educated college graduate with a bad attitude but oodles of work experience.
FEDup • June 4th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Agree! “The greed of the few have pushed aside the needs of the many”, yet most people don’t even see it or want to discuss it. As the rock band REM says it so well in their song Bad Day: “we’re sick of being jerked around, wear that on your sleeve…save my own ass, save these guys, smoke and mirror lockdown….”
subgenius • June 4th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Lamborghinis? Farmers? Thus Rogers illustrates the ancient (but forgotten) truth that ability to make money in the markets in the past in no way gives you the ability to accurately predict anything of true worth for the future.Study some hard science Jim.
Michelle • June 4th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
hlowe,Your comments are much appreciated. I thoroughly enjoy your posts as well. If I really didn’t like the ridicule, I would just stop posting.
Michelle • June 4th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
Explain please?
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
U6 is approaching 18% that is over 20 million peoplecurrent people on unemployment insurance is approx 6.8 million which lasts approx. 59 weeks in most stateswe are now on a runrate where roughly 600K fall off insurance as 600k join inusrance…there are NO JOBS and NO JOB Creation going on… Walmart adding 22K job at 10 .00 an hour does nothing to help, in fact it hurts…. and neither does 2 million census workers at 10.00 an hour…Don’t believe the positive spins, this is absolutley brutal and horrible for those losing thier jobs and our economy… the impact of these monthly run rates will not be felt for months in terms of folks not being able to pay thier mortgages, pay thier bills, spend, etc….Unemployment should not be treated as lagging indicator as to the health of the economy, it is now a forward indicator of probelms to come…THERE ARE NO JOBS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!also data suggests that 90% of folks who lose a job during recession/depression never again make what they were making. that my friends is called wage destruction by Big business…http://www.idahostatesman.com/235/story/790098.html?storylink=omni_popular
Plongka10 • June 4th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
LOL. Lamborghini started out making tractors. Oh well, shouldn’t be surprised really.
Plongka10 • June 4th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Oh, and you can buy Ferrari tractors in Europe. ROFLAO
Plongka10 • June 4th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
They’ll just use all that liquidity to buy up assets at rock-bottom prices – as predicted.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
i shorted above 940 and cashed out yesterday. now they pushed up over 940 again! no problem, i will just short more and cash out again. work harder, bulls !
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
Ex-Countrywide chief Angelo Mozilo charged with fraud by SEC.Yes!
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
hmmm US GDP currently around 13T china around 4T… if china equals us anytime soon we DOA as a country.
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Food for thought: Hey Joe did we create or save Jobs this month? Mr. President there are NO JOBS!Tomorrow will likely bring more bad news for President Barack Obama on the number one issue for voters — the economy. The Labor Department’s monthly job report will almost certainly show unemployment topping 9%, with a couple hundred thousand more jobs lost in May.It will get worse before jobs get better. Congressional Budget Director Douglas W. Elmendorf recently predicted that unemployment will continue rising into the second half of next year and peak above 10%.Mr. Obama has an ingenious approach to job losses: He describes them as job gains. For example, last week the president claimed that 150,000 jobs had been created or saved because of his stimulus package. He boasted, “And that’s just the beginning.”However, at the beginning of January, 134.3 million people were employed. At the start of May, 132.4 million Americans were working. How was Mr. Obama magically able to conjure this loss of 1.9 million jobs into an increase of 150,000 jobs?As my former White House deputy press secretary Tony Fratto points out on his blog, the Labor Department does not and cannot collect data on “jobs saved.” So the Obama administration is asking that we accept its “clairvoyant ability to estimate,” and the White House press corps has let Mr. Obama’s ludicrous claim go virtually unchallenged.Still, there are limits to Mr. Obama’s rhetorical tricks. Even he cannot turn job losses into real job gains. And he won’t be rescued by stimulus spending.Former National Economic Council Director Keith Hennessey made a persuasive case on his blog that the stimulus will be ineffective because the additional economic growth it spurs will come six to nine months later than it could have.This is partly because, as the Congressional Budget Office estimates, only $185 billion (23% of a $787 billion stimulus package) will be spent this fiscal year. The government will spend an additional $399 billion next fiscal year. The balance — $203 billion — will be spent between fiscal years 2011 and 2019, long after the economy has turned on its own power and for its own reasons. In addition, much of the stimulus that went this year for tax cuts and transfer payments has been saved, not spent. (The national savings rate went from less than 0% to about 5%.)If the Obama administration were more serious about growing the economy than just growing government, the stimulus would have been front-loaded into this fiscal year.In addition, the claim made by Team Obama that every dollar in stimulus translates into a dollar-and-a-half in growth is economic fiction. The costs of stimulus reduce future growth. No country has ever spent itself to prosperity. The price of stimulus has to be paid sometime.Any real improvement in the economy so far is more likely the result of the Federal Reserve expanding the money supply and the Fed and Treasury shoring up the financial sector.But the Fed’s actions are risky. Easy money and expansionary policies are not sustainable. We may soon be in for a bout of inflation unless the Fed soaks up much of the money it flooded into the system. The government is also likely to hamper private investment as it uses a vast amount of capital to finance its debt. And when the Fed stomps on its monetary brakes, as eventually it must, we’ll get sluggish growth.The irony for Democrats is that the Fed may hit the brakes in the run-up to the 2010 congressional elections or the 2012 presidential election.It is becoming clear that the economy is now the top issue. Mr. Obama’s presidency may well rise or fall on it. The economy will be his responsibility long before next year’s elections. Americans may give him a chance to turn things around, but voters can turn unforgiving very quickly if promised jobs don’t materialize.That’s what happened in Louisiana, where voters accepted Democrat Gov. Kathleen Blanco’s missteps before Hurricane Katrina but brutally rejected her afterward because she failed to turn the state around.Until now, the new president has benefited from public willingness to give him a honeymoon. He decided to use that grace period to push for the largest expansion of government in U.S. history and to reward political allies (see the sweetheart deals Big Labor received in the GM and Chrysler bankruptcies).The difficulty for Mr. Obama will be when the public sees where his decisions lead — higher inflation, higher interest rates, higher taxes, sluggish growth, and a jobless recovery.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124407228244683091.html
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
What is this country turning into?Medical bills play a role in 62% of bankruptcies, study saysPresident Obama meets with Senate Democrats to discuss healthcare at the White House. A study by Harvard researchers showing an increase in bankruptcies in which medical bills were a contributing cause could give Obama’s bid for healthcare reform a boost.Findings by Harvard researchers show that medical-related bankruptcies have increased from 55% in 2001. The report could boost Obama’s bid for healthcare reforms.President Obama’s push for healthcare reforms gets a boost today from a new study by Harvard University researchers that shows a sizable increase over six years in bankruptcies caused in part by ever-higher medical expenses.The study found that medical bills, plus related problems such as lost wages for the ill and their caregivers, contributed to 62% of all bankruptcies filed in 2007. On the campaign trail last year and in the White House this year, Obama had cited an earlier study by the same authors showing that such expenses played a part in 55% of bankruptcies in 2001.Medical insurance isn’t much help, either. About 78% of bankruptcy filers burdened by healthcare expenses were insured, according to the survey, to be published in the August issue of the American Journal of Medicine.”Health insurance is not a guarantee that illness won’t bankrupt you,” said Steffie Woolhandler, one of the authors, a practicing physician and an associate medical professor at Harvard.”Lots of health insurance comes with big co-payments, deductibles and uncovered services,” she said. “So you can be insured and still end up with big bills. At the same time, even if you have good insurance through your employer, you can lose it if you get sick and can’t work.”Most people who filed medical-related bankruptcies “were solidly middle class before financial disaster hit,” the study says. Two-thirds were homeowners, and most had gone to college.The study does not suggest that medical expenses were the sole cause for these bankruptcies, but it does identify them as a contributing factor. The increase in such filings occurred despite a 2005 law aimed at making it more difficult for individuals to seek court protection from creditors.And the latest study probably understates the current burden of medical expenses because it is based on bankruptcies filed before the recession hit.The findings by a team of Harvard researchers from the law and medical schools are expected to help fuel the debate over what type of healthcare system is right for the U.S.In a letter Wednesday, Obama made another push for a healthcare overhaul, reiterating his concern about the financial burden the current system places on families and businesses.”Soaring healthcare costs make our current course unsustainable,” he wrote in the letter to Sens. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) and Max Baucus (D-Mont.), who are leading efforts to develop healthcare legislation. “It is unsustainable for our families, whose spiraling premiums and out-of-pocket expenses are pushing them into bankruptcy and forcing them to go without the checkups and prescriptions they need.”Momentum has been growing in Congress for healthcare reform. Such change can’t come soon enough for Mary McCurnin.She and her husband, Ron, filed for bankruptcy and nearly lost their home near Sacramento after a series of medical crises, including her breast cancer and his open-heart surgery. Ron, 63, lost his insurance coverage when the company providing it lost its California license after paying 10% of his hospital bills. Mary, 59, managed to get on Medi-Cal after they “went broke.”Despite the ordeal, she said, the self-employed illustrators feel fortunate that they survived and managed to hang on to their home. “The healthcare industry is killing people,” she said. “There’s no other way to put it. We just got lucky.”Linda and Jeffrey Somach pay $800 a month for health insurance. But the Staten Island, N.Y., couple filed for bankruptcy a month ago when their out-of-pocket medical expenses surpassed $40,000.Linda Somach, a psychologist, can earn $80,000 a year if she sees patients full time. But she had to scale back to care for Jeffrey, who has terminal brain cancer. That reduced their income. At the same time, she is constantly getting bills for out-of-network charges, deductibles and medical care that their insurance doesn’t cover.”We put so much of the medical stuff on credit cards,” she said. “My patients do it too.”The study suggests that such plights are routine.Woolhandler is on the board of Physicians for a National Health Program, a group that advocates for a single-payer system, in which government, not private insurers, brokers healthcare. She said the study showed that private insurers had failed in their core mission: protecting consumers from financial ruin in the event of a medical crisis.”We need to rethink health reform,” Woolhandler said. “Covering the uninsured isn’t enough. Reform also needs to help families who already have insurance by upgrading their coverage and assuring they never lose it.”A spokesman for private insurers said the industry recognized that uncovered and expensive medical care imposed a burden on families and businesses. But he said that private insurers were in a better position to rein in spiraling medical costs and that the industry had a plan for protecting people from being forced into bankruptcy over medical expenses not covered by insurance.”In fact, in our comprehensive reform proposal we recommended in December that Congress should look at an out-of-pocket spending cap and a system of tax credits for low-income people,” Robert Zirkelbach, a spokesman for America’s Health Insurance Plans, a Washington, D.C.-based trade group.”If an individual’s health expenses reached a certain level, there could be tax credits or other assistance to help those individuals,” he said.The study found that medical-related bankruptcy filers with private insurance reported average medical bills of $17,749. By comparison, people who filed for bankruptcy without insurance reported average medical expenses of $26,971.Individuals with diabetes and neurological disorders, such as multiple sclerosis, had the highest medical bills, averaging $26,971 for those with insurance and $34,167 for those without. Hospital bills were the largest expense for about half the families that filed health-related bankruptcies.
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
Jobless rates rise in U.S. metro areas in AprilEl Centro, Calif., has highest unemployment rate — 26.9 percentupdated 2:56 p.m. PT, Wed., June 3, 2009WASHINGTON – Jobless rates rose in all the largest U.S. metropolitan areas for the fourth straight month in April, a trend likely to persist even as the recession eases.The Labor Department said Wednesday that unemployment in April rose from a year earlier in all 372 metropolitan areas it tracks. Indiana’s Elkhart-Goshen’s rate jumped to 17.8 percent, up 12.7 percentage points from a year ago. The Indiana region, which posted the largest increase from last year, has been pounded by layoffs in the recreational vehicle industry.The second-highest jump occurred in Bend, Ore. Its rate rose to 15.6 percent, up 9 percentage points from last year. The region of North Carolina’s Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton saw its unemployment rate rise to 14.9 percent, a gain of 8.8 percentage points from last year.Most of the regions hardest hit have suffered big layoffs in manufacturing or have been clobbered by the collapse of the housing market, economists said. Factories reduced production as businesses slashed supplies of goods amid dwindling customer demand, said Mark Vitner, economist at Wachovia.All those negative forces rippled through metropolitan areas.“Municipal governments are strapped and have cut back,” Vitner said. “Retailers have closed shop. Problems have multiplied.”
JoyceF • June 4th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
No in time!
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
Sorry but without Jobs we are in trouble… I will continue to inform on the NO JOBS situation in this country… In addtion to the continuing loss of jobs, We also have WAGE DESTRUCTION occuring for any new jobs and even for people who still have jobs?The new ‘good’ job: 12 bucks an hourIn the Midwest, communities race to replace dwindling auto jobs with renewable energy ones, but workers will have to sacrifice on their pay.feed://rss.cnn.com/rss/money_news_economy.rssPaste this link into your favorite RSS desktop readerSee all CNNMoney.com RSS FEEDS (close) By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writerLast Updated: June 4, 2009: 12:07 PM ETIron workers at the Minster Machine Company start at $17.50 an hour whether they’re making parts for the wind or auto industry.Detroit’s Youth: Stay or go?The young people of Motown have a tough choice: Go where the jobs take them or stick around Detroit and tough it out.NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Massive investment in renewable energy could ultimately create 4 million manufacturing jobs. But for the workers in the bottom rung of this movement, the shift to green jobs could very well mean a pay cut of nearly 60%, a trend spreading across the entire manufacturing sector.Many of the entry-level jobs making green energy components start at $12 an hour, much less than the now extinct $28 an hour job that had allowed high school-educated workers in the auto sector to achieve middle class status.”Particularly at the lower end, these are not very good jobs,” said Philip Mattera, research director at Good Jobs First, a labor-friendly research group, also acknowledging that the renewable energy sector paid wages that were “all over the map.”Talkback: Is $12 an hour a decent wage?Americans are betting that molding steel wind turbines, slicing silicon for solar panels and making batteries for electric cars will put them back on top of the manufacturing game. The 4 million new jobs, estimated by the University of California, Berkeley, would bring back more than half of all the manufacturing jobs lost in this country since the sector’s heyday in the late 1970s.At a battery plant just outside Indianapolis, job growth could boom. The plant is owned by EnerDel, the car battery division of Ener1. Here, the company is racing to build a cost competitive battery for an all-electric car. If it gets a government loan it’s applying for, the company plans on hiring up to 3,000 people. That’s roughly what a big auto plant employs.But $12 an hour is the starting wage for a production worker.While the starting wages at EnerDel are lower than what the auto industry pays, company executives stressed salaries go up quickly as skill sets improve. They also stressed a company like EnerDel employs lots of skilled workers too, from the electrical engineers needed to design the batteries to the mechanical engineers who build the machines.A level pay scale. The diversity of jobs in the renewable energy business is one thing supporters of green manufacturing tout. They say people should look beyond the starting wages for labor when judging the industry.”I cannot think of an industry that has more diversity in wages,” said Jackie Roberts, director of sustainable technology at the Environmental Defense Fund.Plus, $12 an hour is in-line with the average wage for an electronics assembler in the Indianapolis area, according to the Labor Department.It’s a similar scene at a plant making silicon for solar panels up in Michigan. Just outside of Saginaw, an executive at Hemlock Semiconductor would only say the company paid “competitive wages.”But people in town said the non-union Hemlock plant paid around $10 an hour for unskilled production workers and $20 an hour for skilled ones.Mike Hanley, president of the local United Auto Workers union, said he hoped green manufacturing will become more unionized going forward. But he agreed that the wages at Hemlock were pretty good for the area.Not just green industry. Environmental Defense’s Roberts notes that besides new companies making things specifically for the renewable energy business, as is the case with EnerDel, there are also lots of manufacturing firms that make components for both the green and traditional industries.”There are manufacturing jobs,” she said. “They have the same wages as anyone making components for any other industry.”That’s the case in Minster, Ohio, where the Minster Machine Company turns out both parts for wind turbines as well as machines for other the auto and food processing industries.Building windmills in Rust BeltInside the company’s massive iron foundry, workers start at $17.50 and hour whether they are pouring castings for a wind turbine hub or an auto stamping machine.But the company’s president, John Winch, noted that in the long run, wages in the U.S. will probably come down as wages in the developing world come up – all part of the globalization process.”The wage scale will probably be more dependent on what the world’s wage scale is,” said Winch.Even in the auto industry, $28-an-hour is no longer the starting wage. Since 2007 the industry has had a two-tier wage system, meaning that when they start hiring again the new starting wage will be $14 an hour
ToothFairy • June 4th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
It is important in these times, when people might be looking for wisdom from legends of the past, to keep a balanced perspective.Towards that end, an excellent book, published a few decades back entitled “Out of this Furnace,” gives clear insight into the nature of Andrew Carnegie and the impact on the blue collar labor force of his business motivations.It would be fascinating to be able to ask an honest, reliably informed person from that era – who they thought most closely resembles Andrew Carnegie in the current state of events in the USA (or the world).
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Annual salaries at respective hourly rates. i would be interested in anyone who has data on what pct of workers fall into certain wage categories or what the future may look like for those who find a job or have a job. All know is that the WAGE DESTRUCTION RESET is in progress….. At what level below can someone “afford” as 250K house?2,080 $12.00 $24,960.002,080 $13.00 $27,040.002,080 $14.00 $29,120.002,080 $15.00 $31,200.002,080 $16.00 $33,280.002,080 $17.00 $35,360.002,080 $18.00 $37,440.002,080 $19.00 $39,520.002,080 $20.00 $41,600.002,080 $21.00 $43,680.002,080 $22.00 $45,760.002,080 $23.00 $47,840.002,080 $24.00 $49,920.002,080 $25.00 $52,000.002,080 $26.00 $54,080.002,080 $27.00 $56,160.002,080 $28.00 $58,240.002,080 $29.00 $60,320.002,080 $30.00 $62,400.00
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
This is not an issue of religion but one of values, integrity and credibility. Then it should be debated as such. A valid discussion would be about his credibility, values and integrity as compared to a REASONABLE standard of behavior. What value is he violating, what has he said/done to compromised his integrity or eroded his credibility. I think you have captured the essence of the stated concern in your third alternative: e.g. say/do whatever to achieve an end. So the concern is that he is more than a two dimensional character? I can, for example, present myself as a housekeeper, or as a graduate student, or a laboratory technician. All are job functions I perform and pieces of my life, but do I lose credibility for having multiple facets? The primary criticism in the above article is that President Obama is promoting one facet of his history over another to persuade his target audience. Does that make him a liar? I don’t think so. The entire US political system is based on ability of a individual to persuade a majority to vote for them, and then people get upset when our politicians use every reasonable avenue at their disposal to accomplish that. It’s especially ironic in this case, when the objection is “doing whatever it takes to achieve an end,” when the end in question is improved international relations and peaceful coexistence.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
How about:Try not to let your mind wander,It’s too small to be outside by itself.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Front load, back load, I don’t think it makes a difference. After the stimulus has been spent, what is the impetus for maintaining the stimuli-induced jobs? We need a new model for growth.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
There are no wage levels listed at which someone could reasonably afford a $250k house.
Morbid • June 4th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
MM CA,
She and her husband, Ron, filed for bankruptcy and nearly lost their home near Sacramento after a series of medical crises, including her breast cancer and his open-heart surgery. Ron, 63, lost his insurance coverage when the company providing it lost its California license after paying 10% of his hospital bills. Mary, 59, managed to get on Medi-Cal after they “went broke.”
What did the open heart surgery costs and the breast cancer treatment? I had a sister-in-law, who also has diabetes, that went through open heart surgery – cost around $80,000. That should be treated as elective and therefore rationed care. May sound cruel but that is what is sustainable. Now her hips, knees, back are going out and she wants it all fixed of course even though she is about 200 pounds overweight.We are not living reality folks. And all these politicians have got the masses hooked on HOPIUM that the other guy will pay for – meaning your children, etc. Do them a favor and live within the means you have not what ‘others might be able to do for you.”I say, “stop the bleeding.” Stop all the wars and global trading, bring the troops home, close the borders and hunker down and try cutting as many expenditures as possible like paring back the military budget about 70% and then maybe we can even afford better health care.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
And, if ever there were a reason for deflation, this is it.
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Annual Hourly Annual Med and TotalHours Dental2,080 $12.00 $24,960.00 $12,000.00 $36,960.002,080 $13.00 $27,040.00 $12,000.00 $39,040.002,080 $14.00 $29,120.00 $12,000.00 $41,120.002,080 $15.00 $31,200.00 $12,000.00 $43,200.002,080 $16.00 $33,280.00 $12,000.00 $45,280.002,080 $17.00 $35,360.00 $12,000.00 $47,360.002,080 $18.00 $37,440.00 $12,000.00 $49,440.002,080 $19.00 $39,520.00 $12,000.00 $51,520.002,080 $20.00 $41,600.00 $12,000.00 $53,600.002,080 $21.00 $43,680.00 $12,000.00 $55,680.002,080 $22.00 $45,760.00 $12,000.00 $57,760.002,080 $23.00 $47,840.00 $12,000.00 $59,840.002,080 $24.00 $49,920.00 $12,000.00 $61,920.002,080 $25.00 $52,000.00 $12,000.00 $64,000.002,080 $26.00 $54,080.00 $12,000.00 $66,080.002,080 $27.00 $56,160.00 $12,000.00 $68,160.002,080 $28.00 $58,240.00 $12,000.00 $70,240.002,080 $29.00 $60,320.00 $12,000.00 $72,320.002,080 $30.00 $62,400.00 $12,000.00 $74,400.00
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
anyone know how many workers dont get these types of benefits today?WW / 4% W / 5% Pension Total Benefits Total Salary 401K Match Contribution Benefits And Benefits$998.40 $1,248.00 $14,246.40 $39,206.40$1,081.60 $1,352.00 $14,433.60 $41,473.60$1,164.80 $1,456.00 $14,620.80 $43,740.80$1,248.00 $1,560.00 $14,808.00 $46,008.00$1,331.20 $1,664.00 $14,995.20 $48,275.20$1,414.40 $1,768.00 $15,182.40 $50,542.40$1,497.60 $1,872.00 $15,369.60 $52,809.60$1,580.80 $1,976.00 $15,556.80 $55,076.80$1,664.00 $2,080.00 $15,744.00 $57,344.00$1,747.20 $2,184.00 $15,931.20 $59,611.20$1,830.40 $2,288.00 $16,118.40 $61,878.40$1,913.60 $2,392.00 $16,305.60 $64,145.60$1,996.80 $2,496.00 $16,492.80 $66,412.80$2,080.00 $2,600.00 $16,680.00 $68,680.00$2,163.20 $2,704.00 $16,867.20 $70,947.20$2,246.40 $2,808.00 $17,054.40 $73,214.40$2,329.60 $2,912.00 $17,241.60 $75,481.60$2,412.80 $3,016.00 $17,428.80 $77,748.80$2,496.00 $3,120.00 $17,616.00 $80,016.00
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
For 30yr @5.5% taxes 1.2% (california) and insurance $700 (annually)No down payment would need $62,000. w/20% down $51,782. would do.In perhaps another month you will be reading in the news “Entry level single family home prices rise month over month in San Diego”.hlowe
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 5:12 pm
Go back to the old rule of thumb of being able to afford a house that is three times one’s annual salary. Regardless, if I made $52k I would not buy a $250k house. I don’t care how low the interest rate is.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 5:27 pm
Guest on 2009-06-04 15:34:52What you describe as “two dimensional” another might describe as duplicitous, perhaps a kinder word would be insincere. What some refer to as two faced other call pragmatic. Politicians are all of the above.
PermaBull Wins everytime • June 4th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
Friends, the old times are back — bigger and better.I was talking to my friend who has negotiated a lower mortgage because he said he told the bank he wouldn’t pay. Now he is back to putting things on credit card, buying every ‘new’ thing. This recession was no recession, it was mild at best.Most people did not get very much affected. Very soon people will start finding jobs and party will continue. Because stocks have risen, spending rises which in turn benefits stocks! S&P 500 is soon going to hit 1400-1500, there will be +400K jobs every months and all will be well.The only lesson from this is that people never learn any lesson.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 6:02 pm
Most Buyers will refer to said rule when interest rates are around 11.8% (w/20% down) I certainly hope you don’t refer to that rule if interest rates get to 15%. It’s all about monthly payment for the average person; interest rates largely determine value of the home (all else being static). Personally, I am waiting for the interest rate to go up as I think it is inevitable, but…hlowe
Guest too • June 4th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
Bread and circusesFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaJump to: navigation, searchThis article is about the phrase. For other uses, see Bread and circuses (disambiguation).”Bread and circuses” (or Bread and games) (from Latin: panem et circenses) is a metaphor for handouts and petty amusements that politicians use to gain popular support, instead of gaining it through sound policy. The phrase is invoked not only to criticize politicians, but also to criticize their supporters for giving up their civic duty.HistoryThis phrase originates in Satire X of the Roman poet Juvenal (c 200). In context, the Latin phrase panis et circenses (bread and circuses) is given as the only remaining cares of a Roman populace which has given up its birthright of political involvement. Here Juvenal displays his contempt for the declining heroism of his contemporary Romans.[1]:… Already long ago, from when we sold our vote to no man, the People have abdicated our duties; for the People who once upon a time handed out military command, high civil office, legions — everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses… iam pridem, ex quo suffragia nulli uendimus, effudit curas; nam qui dabat olim imperium, fasces, legiones, omnia, nunc se continet atque duas tantum res anxius optat, panem et circenses.(Juvenal, Satire 10.77–81)Juvenal here makes reference to the Roman practice of providing free wheat to Roman citizens as well as costly circus games and other forms of entertainment as a means of gaining political power through populism. The Annona (grain dole) was begun under the instigation of the popularis politician Gaius Sempronius Gracchus in 123 BC; it remained an object of political contention until it was taken under the control of the Roman emperors.Spanish intellectuals between the 19th and 20th centuries complained about the similar pan y toros (“bread and bullfights”). It appears similarly in Russian as хлеба и зрелищ (“bread and spectacle”).Aldous Huxley used the phrase in Brave New World Revisited as an example of one of the ideas he used as a theme in Brave New World.The song “Panis et Circenses,” written by Gilberto Gil and Caetano Veloso and performed by Os Mutantes, is considered a manifesto of the Tropicalia music and art movement, as is the compilation album that shares its name..(Tom Waits/K. Brennan)In The ColosseumNow women all control their menWith razors and with wristsAnd the princess squeezes grape juiceOn a torrid bloody kissWhat will you be wearing thereThe lion or the raven hair?The flesh will all be tearingBut the tail will be my ownIn the Colosseum, in the ColosseumIn the Colosseum tonight. 2 xThis one’s for the balconyAnd this one’s for the floorAs the senators decapitateThe Presidential WhoreThe bald headed senatorsAre splashing in the bloodThe dogs are having someoneWho is screaming in the mudIn the Colosseum, in the ColosseumIn the Colosseum tonight. 2 xNow it’s raining and it’s pouringOn the pillaging and goringThe constable is swingingFrom the chainsFor the dead there is no storyNo memory no blameTheir families shout blue murderBut tomorrow it’s the sameIn the Colosseum, in the ColosseumIn the Colosseum tonight.In the Colosseum, call ‘em as they see ‘emIn the Colosseum tonight.A slowly acting poisonWill be given to the favorite oneThe dark horse will bring gloryTo the jailer and his menIt’s always much more sportingWhen there’s families in the pitAnd the madness of the crowdIs given epileptic fitIn the Colosseum, in the ColosseumIn the Colosseum tonight.In the Colosseum, call ‘em as they see ‘emIn the Colosseum tonight.No justice here, no libertyNo reason, no blameThere’s no cause to taint the sweetest taste of bloodAnd greetings from the nationAs we shake the hands of timeThey’re taking their ovationThe vultures stay behindIn the Colosseum, in the ColosseumIn the Colosseum tonight. 2x.In the Colosseum tonightIn the Colosseum tonight.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 6:40 pm
Are you being sarcastic? I assume so, because general stupidity and greed will not fix things; it will only mask things slightly, for awhile longer.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 6:49 pm
No short-haired yellow-bellied son of Tricky Dick is gonna Mother Hubbard soft-soap me with just a pocketful of hope.–John Lennon
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 7:00 pm
I met a Preacher today. He prayed with me, and he told me the Lord was always with me. I was so filled with the Spirit, I got in my car and ran three red lights in His honor.–Mick Jagger
Guest too • June 4th, 2009 at 7:04 pm
g,bitter sweet. orsad and beautiful.
Average Jane • June 4th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
Oh dear, Chignos. My point just went right over your head, didn’t it?
Average Jane • June 4th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
You’re on a higher plane, blindly. Go to the head of the class. Chignos, pay attention.
Average Jane • June 4th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
This really calls for another round of blast faxes and e-mails and phone calls to our clueless elected representatives, doesn’t it, FEDup? It is astonishing to me that Baucus won’t even let single-payer advocates into his committee meetings when 70% of the population is screaming for single-payer health care.Premiums are only going to go up and up until consumers put our collective foot down. Witness the power of shutting our collective wallets. We can do this.Thanks for your well-thought-out and well-written posts, FEDup. I enjoy you immensely.
Guest also • June 4th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
http://www.militaryindustrialcomplex.com/.RECENT updated M-F after 5PM ETThere were 9 publicly-reported Defense Contracts listed [ TODAY ] totaling $387,413,784.DAY PRIORThere were 16 publicly-reported Defense Contract listed [ YESTERDAY ] totaling $2,377,559,659.THIS WEEK33 publicly-reported Defense Contracts are listed This Week totaling $3,164,732,822.LAST WEEK54 publicly-reported Defense Contracts were listed Last Week totaling $2,918,362,924.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
So that is all you have to do to get a lower rate, tell the bank you will not pay?
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
and they all need a bailout…. every day..Corporations, Companies and FirmsContracts grouped by company name.If on a PC, use Cntrl+F to find a company name faster..• 3-D Engineering CorporationA• A & H Contractors, Incorporated• A1 Signal Research, Incorporated• AAI Corporation• ACC Construction• Accenture LLP• Accenture Nation Security Systems LLC• Accenture National Services LLC, Incorporated• Acepex Management Corporation• Actel Corporation• ActioNet, Incorporated• Adaptive Methods, Incorporated• ADI Limited• Addx• AECOM Government Services• Aeroflex Corporation• Aerojet General Corporation (ALL)• Aerojet General Corporation, Aerojet Propulsion Division• Aerospace Testing Alliance• AEY, Incorporated• Advanced Acoustics Concepts, Incorporated• Advanced American Construction, Incorporated• Advanced Systems Development, Incorporated• Aero Company• Aeroflex Corporation• Aerojet-General Corporation• Aerospace Testing Alliance (ATA)• AeroVironment Corporation• AGE Refining, Incorporated• AGVIQ/CH2M HILL Constructors, incorporated• Air BP (Epic Aviation)• Air Products and Chemical, Incorporated• Aircraft Braking Systems• Akima Construction LLC• Akima Facilities Management LLC• Alaska Aerospace Development Corporation of Anchorage• Alaska Native Technologies, Incorporated LLC• Alaska Structures, Incorporated• Alaska Tent and Tarp• ALCOA, Incorporated• Alion Science and Technology Corporation• Alon USA LP• Alloy Surfaces Company• Allen Wright Enterprises, Incorporated• Alliance Aviation Service• Alliant Ammunition and Powder Company LLC• Alliant Lake City Small Caliber Ammunition Company, LLC• Alliant Techsystems, Incorporated• Alliant Techsystems, Incorporated, Integrated Systems Division• Allison Transmission• Aleut Facilities Support Services LLC• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Incorporated• Alon USA LP• Alton Science and Technology• AM General LLC• AM General SPLO• AMEC Earth and Environmental, Incorporated• American Apparel, Incorporated• American Auto Logistics LP• American Electronic Warfare Associates• American Material Handling, Incorporated• American Medical Depot• American Security Programs, Incorporated• Amerda Hess Corporation• AmeriQual Group, LLC• American Apparel, Incorporated• American Bridge Company• American Infrastructure• American Ordnance LLC• American Roll-On Roll-Off Carriers• American Society for Engineering Education• AmerisourceBergen Drug Corporation• Amherst Systems, Incorporated• AMPAC-ISP Corporation• AMSEC LLC• Analysis Group LLC, The• Anchor Industries• Andalusia-Opp Airport Authority• Alliance Aviation Service• Alutiiq International Solutions LLC• APAC-SOUTHEAST, Incorporated• Applied Engineering Management Corporation• Applied Research Laboratories at the University of Texas• Aqua-Chem• AQuate Corporation• Archer Western Contractors and LTD• Archer Western Contractors and LTD / Butt Construction Company, Incorporated• ARCTEC Ala• Arriba Corporation• ARINC Engineering Services LLC• Army Armaments, Incorporated• Arrowhead Global Solutions• ARGONST• ARINC, Incorporated• Armor Holdings• Armorworks• Armtec Countermeasures Company• Army Armaments• Arnold Defense and Electronics• ASTAR Air Cargo• AT&T Corporation• AT&T Government Markets• ATK (ALL)• ATK Federal Cartridge Company• ATK Launch Systems• ATK Space Systems, Incorporated• ATK Tactical Systems• Atlantic Contingency Constructors LLC• Atlantic Marine Florida, LLC• Atlantic Microwave• ATSI LTD• Augusta Systems• Automation Precision Technology LLC• Autometric• Aurora Flight Sciences• Avaya, Incorporated DBA Avaya Communications• AVI BioPharma• Avon Protection Systems, IncorporatedB• B & K Construction Company, Incorporated• Babcock Construction Company LLC• Babington Enterprises, Incorporated• BAe / Schroth Safety Products Corporation• BAe Systems (ALL)• BAe Systems, Advanced Technologies• BAe Systems Advanced Information Technologies• BAe Systems Analytical Solutions• BAe Systems, Armament Systems Division• BAe Systems and Armaments LP Armament Systems Division• BAe Systems Applied Technologies, Incorporated• BAe Systems Australia Limited• BAe Systems Electronic Intelligence Support• BAe Systems, Ground Systems Division• BAe Systems Information and Electronics• BAe Systems Information and Electronic Systems Integration• BAe Systems Information and Electronic Systems Integrated• BAe Systems Land and Armaments• BAe Systems Land and Armaments Limited Partnership, Armament Systems Division• BAe Systems Land and Armaments LP, Ground Systems Division• BAe Systems, Norfolk Ship Repair• BAe Systems Ordnance Systems, Incorporated• BAe Systems San Diego Ship Repair, Incorporated• BAe Systems San Francisco Ship Repair• BAe Systems Technical Services• BAe Systems Technologies, Incorporated• BAe Systems Technology Solutions and Services, Incorporated• Bahrain Maritime and Mercantile International• Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corporation• Base-X Expedition Shelters• Basic Contracting Services, Incorporated• Basler Electric• Bath Iron Works• Battelle Memorial Institute• Battery Specialties, Incorporated• Bay Electric Company, Incorporated• BBIX• BBL Carlton, Incorporated• BBN Technologies Corporation• BCP International Limited• B E Meyers and Company, Incorporated• BE&K Government Group, Incorporated• Bean Stuyvesant LLC• BearingPoint, Incorporated• Beaufort-Jasper Water and Sewer Authority (BJWSA)• Bechtel Plant Machinery, Incorporated• Bell-Boeing Joint Program Office, The• Bell-Boeing Tilt Rotor Team• Bell Helicopter Textron, Incorporated• Belonger / Blinderman Joint Venture LLC• Benchmark Contracting, Incorporated• Benham Constructors• Benson Medical Instruments Company• Bergen Brunswig Drug Company, Incorporated• Bethel Industries, Incorporated• Bette and Craig LLC• Bickerstaff Brothers, Incorporated• Bindley Western Drug Company• BioEngineering / ARCADIS LLC• Biscayne Contractors, Incorporated• BJK Solutions, Incorporated• BKA Petroleum Company dba Leemon Oil Company, Incorporated• BL Harbert International LLC• Black and Veatch Special Projects Corporation• Blackbird Technologies, Incorporated• BMI Defense Systems, Incorporated• Boeing Aerospace Corporation• Boeing Aerospace Operations, Incorporated• Boeing Company, The (ALL)• Boeing Corporation, Expendable Launch Systems• Boeing Helicopter• Boeing Satellite Systems, Incorporated• Boeing Wichita Development and Mod Center• BOH Environmental LLC• Booz Allen Hamilton, Incorporated• Boro Construction• Bowhead Manufacturing, Incorporated• Brechbill and Helman Construction Company, Incorporated• BREMCOR• Bremen Bowdon• Bristol Design Build Services LLC• Bristol Environmental and Engineering Services Corporation• Browning Construction Company Ltd• BTP Systems LLC• Bucktown Contractor and Company, Incorporated• BUCON, Incorporated, Butler Construction• Burlington Apparel Fabrics• Burlington Apparel Fabrics Division of Burlington Industries LLC• Bushmaster Firearms International LLC• Business Technology and Solutions, Incorporated• Butt Construction Company, IncorporatedC• C2 Technologies• C A Carey Corporation• CACI, Incorporated (ALL)• CACI Dynamic Systems, Incorporated• CACI Systems, Incorporated• Caddell Construction Company, Incorporated• Caddell Corporation Company, Incorporated• Caddell Yates• CADDO and Wolverine Joint Venture• Calnet, Incorporated• Calumet Sales Company, Incorporated• Canadian Commercial Corporation, General Dynamics Land Systems Canada• Chamberlain Manufacturing Corporation• Caman / Strickland• Camber Corporation• Camel Manufacturing Company• Campbellsville Apparel Company• Canadian Commercial Corporation• Capco, Incorporated• CAPPS Shoe Company• Caravan Trading Company• Cardinal Health, Incorporated• Cardinal Health 200, Incorporated• Carley Corporation• Carl Zeiss Optronics• Carter Industries, Incorporated• CAS, Incorporated• Cascade General, Incorporated• Castrol Marine Americas• Caterpillar Defense and Federal Products• Caterpillar, Incorporated (ALL)• CBZG Design Builders LLC• CDM Constructors, Incorporated• Celina Tent, Incorporated• C E Niehoff and Company• C E Niehoff and AMP Company• Ceradyne, Incorporated• Ceres Caribe, Incorporated• Cessna Aircraft Company• CH2M Hill, Incorporated• CH2M Hill and VT Griffin Joint Venture• Champion Energy Services LLC• Chancellor and Son, Incorporated• Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, The• Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Incorporated• Charpie-Sollitt Joint Venture• Chenega Federal Systems, LLC• Chesapeake Science Corporation• Chesapeake Sciences Corporation• Chiliad Publishing, Incorporated• Chugach Government Services, Incorporated• Chrysler International Corporation• City of Chicopee, Incorporated• Cityon Systems, Incorporated• Civil Air Patrol, Incorporated• CJW Construction, Incorporated• Clark / Balfour Beatty NGA• Clark / Hunt, Joint Venture• CM Technologies Corporation• CNI Aviation LLC• Coakley & Williams Construction, Incorporated• Coastal Pacific Food Distributors• Cockett Marine• Coffman Specialties, Incorporated• College of American Pathologists• Colsa Corporation• Colt Defense LLC• Columbia Research Corporation• Colville Tribal Services Corporation• Communications and Power Industries, Traveling Wave Technology• Compass Systems, Incorporated• Complex Solutions, Incorporated• Computer Science Corporation• Computer Sciences Parson, LLC• Computer Sciences Raytheon• Comtech Mobile Datacom Corporation• Communication Technologies, Incorporated• Conax Florida Corporation• Conoco, Incorporated• ConocoPhillips• Constellation New Energy, Incorporated• Container Machinery, Incorporated• Conti Environment and Infrastructure, Incorporated• Contingency Response Services LLC• Contrack international, Incorporated• Core Tech International Corporation• Carothers Construction, Incorporated• Cottrell Contracting Corporation• Cox Construction Company• CP of Bozeman, Incorporated• Creative Times, Incorporated• Crowley Petroleum Distribution• Crown Roofing Services, Incorporated• CSC Applied Technologies LLC• CSI Armoring• CSS Global• Cubic Applications, Incorporated• Cummins, Incorporated• Curtis Wright Controls• Cutter Aviation, Incorporated• Cytyc CorporationD• Daniels and Daniels Construction Company, Incorporated• Daimler Trucks North America LLC• Daisy Concrete, Incorporated• Dakota Drug, Incorporated• Data Link Solutions• Data Link Solutions Limited Liability Company• Dayton Power and Light Energy Resources• DCS Corporation• Delek Refining LTD• Dell Marketing LP• Del-Jen, Incorporated• Delek Refining LTD• Delta Airlines• Delta Western, Incorporated• DeRossi and Son Company• Detyens Shipyards Incorporated• Dick Anderson Construction, Incorporated• Digital Receiver Technology, Incorporated• Donjon Marine Company Incorporated• DG21• DGM21 LLC• DHS Systems LLC• Dillon Aero, Incorporated• DJ Manufacturing Corporation• DME Corporation• DMJM / 3DI• DMJM/EDI• DMS Pharmaceutical Group, Incorporated• Don Jones Construction Company• DOSS Aviation, Incorporated• DRS (ALL)• DRS C3 Systems LLC• DRS Sensors and Targeting Systems• DRS Sensors and Targeting Systems, Incorporated, Infrared Technology Division• DRS Sustainment Systems, Incorporated• DRS Test & Energy Management, Incorporated• DS2• DTM Corporation• DTS Aviation Services, Incorporated• Ducopak• Dutch Valley• Dynamic Flowform Corporation• DynCorp International, LLC• DynCorp Technical LLC• DZSP 21 LLCE• EA Engineering, Science and Technology, Incorporated• EA Industries, Incorporated• EADS North American Defense• Eagan McAllister, Incorporated• Earl Industries LLC• Earle Industries• East Coast Fruit Company• Eastern GCR LLC JV• Ebrex Food Services Sarl• ECI Construction, Incorporated• EDO (ALL)• EDO Communications and Countermeasures Systems• EDO Corporation• EDO Corporation, Defense Systems• EDO MTECH, Incorporated• EDO Technical Services Operations• EFW, Incorporated• EG&G Technical Services, Incorporated• E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company• El Concorde LLC• Electric Boat Corporation• Electro Mechanical Corporation• Electro-Methods, Incorporated• EMC2 Corporation• EMCOR Facilities Services• Emerald Coast Utility Authority• Emerson Construction Company, Incorporated• Engineering Design Technologies, Incorporated• Engineered Fabrics Corporation• Engineering Management Concepts of Camarillo• Ensign-Bickford Aerospace and Defense Company• Entereza Network Solution, Incorporated• Enterprise Engineering, Incorporated• Entwistle Company• Envision• Envisioneering• EOD Technology, Incorporated• Epic Aviation dba Air BP• Equilon Enterprises• Esterline Armtec Defense, Incorporated• eVenture Technologies LLC• Everts Air Fuel• EWA Government Systems, Incorporated• Exxon Mobil Fuels Marketing CompanyF• Facchina Construction Company, Incorporated• FCI Constructors, Incorporated• Facilities Support Services LLC• F-E Contracting, Incorporated• Federal Cartridge Company• Federal Express (FedEx) Corporation• Federal Express Charter Programs Team Arrangement• Fisher Scientific Company LLC• FGM, Incorporated• Flight Safety Services Corporation• Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority• Force 3, Incorporated• Force Protection Industries, Incorporated• ForceX, Incorporated• Fordice Construction Company• Forrester Construction Company• Forward Slope, Incorporated• Foster-Miller, Incorporated• Fox Apparel• FLIR Services, Incorporated• FMC Technologies (ALL)• FMC Technologies Airport Division• FMC Technologies, Incorporated, Jetway Systems Division• FMW Composite Systems, Incorporated• FN Manufacturing, Incorporated• FN Manufacturing LLC• Frank Gargiulo and Son, Incorporated• Frawner Corporation• Freightliner, LLC• FWH LLCG• Gary-Williams Energy Corporation• Gaver Technologies, Incorporated dba GTI Federal• Genco Infrastructure Solutions• General Atomics (ALL)• General Atomics Aeronautical System• General Construction Company• General Dynamics (ALL)• General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems, Incorporated• General Dynamics Armament and Technical Products, Incorporated• General Dynamics C4 Systems• General Dynamics Electric Boat Corporation• General Dynamics Information Technology• General Dynamics Land Systems, Incorporated• General Dynamics Land Systems – Canada Corporation• General Dynamics Land Systems, General Dynamics Amphibious Systems• General Dynamics. National Steel and Shipbuilding Company• General Dynamcs Ordnance and Tactical Systems, Incorporated• General Electric Aviation• General Electric Company (ALL)• General Electric Company Aircraft Engines• General Electric Company, Aircraft Engines Business Group• General Electric Engineering Services, Incorporated• General Electric Transportation Aircraft Engines• General Industries• General Injectables & Vaccines• General Motors General Dynamics Land Systems Defense Group, LLC• General Purpose Vehicles LLC• Gichner Shelter Systems• Golden Manufacturing Company, Incorporated• Goodrich Corporation• Goodrich Corporation Group Goodrich Aerostructures• GovConnections, Incorporated• Global Fleet Sales, Incorporated• Global Ground Support LLC• Global Investment Recovery• Global Language Systems LLC• Global PCCI• Global Strategies Group• Global Technical Systems• Globe Trailer Manufacturing, Incorporated• GM GDLS Defense Group LLC• Granite Construction Company• Graybar Electric Company• Great Eastern Group, Incorporated• Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Company• GrimmerSchmidt Compressors LLC• Grip Pod Systems LLC• Grunley Walsh US LLC• GSC Construction, Incorporated• GTA Containers, Incorporated• GTI Federal• Guam Industrial Services, Incorporated• Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation• Gyrocam Systems LLCH• H Koch and Sons Company• Halbert Construction Company, Incorporated• Hamps Construction, LLC• Harbor Offshore, Incorporated• Harkins Builders, Incorporated• Harmonia, Incorporated• Harper Construction Company, Incorporated• Harris Corporation• Harris Corporation RF Communications• Harry Pepper and Associates, Incorporated• Haskell Company• HATCO Corporation• Hawaiian Dredging Construction Company, Incorporated• Hawker Beechcraft Corporation• Hawkeye Glove Mfg• Hawthorne Services, Incorporated• Hazard Protection Systems, Incorporated• Healy Tibbitts Builders, Incorporated• Heil Trailer International• Helber Hastert and Fee Planners, Incorporated• Henry M Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicines• Henry Schein, Incorporated• Hensel Phelps Construction Company• Hermes Consolidated, Incorporated• Hess Corporation• Hewlett-Packard Company• Hightower Construction Company, Incorporated• HITT Contracting, Incorporated• Hoffman Construction of Washington• Holston Defense Corporation• Honeywell (ALL)• Honeywell International, Incorporated• Honeywell Incorporated, Defense and Space Electronic Systems• Honeywell Technology Solutions, Incorporated• Hontek Corporation• Hood Technology Corporation• Horizon Lines LLC• Horus Vision LLC• Hourigan Construction Corporation• HRL Laboratories• Hummingbird Aviation LLC• Hunt Building Company LTD• Hunt Refining Company• Husky Marketing and Supply Company• Hutchinson Industries• Hydraulics International, Incorporated• Hydroid LLCI• IAP World Services, Incorporated• IBIS TEK• Icaro Diecisiete LTDA• ICON Consulting Group, Incorporated• I E Pacific, Incorporated• IMIA LLC• Imperial Sales Company• IMT Defense Corporation• Inglett and Stubbs International• Inlet Petroleum Company• InnovaSystems International LLC• Innovative Scientific Solutions, Incorporated• Innovative Technical Solutions, Incorporated• Insight Environmental Engineering and Construction, Incorporated• Insight Technology, Incorporated• Integral Systems, Incorporated• Integrity Applications, Incorporated• Integrys Energy Services, Incorporated• Intelesis Technologies Corporation• International Business Machines Corporation• International Development and Resources, Incorporated• International Military and Government LLC• International Oil Trading Company• International Resources, Incorporated• International Truck and Engine Corporation• Interstate Electronics Corporation• Interstate Storage and Pipeline Corporation• IntraLase Corporation• Ionatron• IsoBunkers LLC• ITT Corporation, Advanced Engineering and Services• ITT Corporation, Aerospace Communications Division• ITT Industries, Incorporated• ITT Industries Systems Division• ITT Night VisionJ• J & J Contractors• Jacobs Facilities, Incorporated• Jacobs Technology, Incorporated• Jacobs / Tetra Tech• Jahn Corporation• James River Solutions• JCB, Incorporated• JD Abrams LLP• Jianas Brothers Packaging Company• JE McAmis• J.I. Garcia Construction, Incorporated• JLG Industries, Incorporated• J M Waller Associates, Incorporated• JMR Construction Corporation• John C Grimberg Company, Incorporated• John Deere Construction and Forrestry Corporation, The• John Deere Construction Retails Sales• Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD• Johnson Outdoors• Jordon-BE & K Federal GroupK• Kalmar RT Center LLC• Kalyn Siebert, Incorporated• Kaman Dayron, Incorporated• Kellogg Brown & Root Services• Kentucky Department for the Blind• Kepler Research, Incorporated• Kidde Dual Spectrum• Kidde Technologies, Incorporated• Kiewet Federal Group, Incorporated• Kiewit Pacific Company• Kiewit-General a Joint Venture• Kilgore Flares Company, LLC• King Fisher Marine Service LP• Kitware, Incorporated• KL House Construction Company, Incorporated• KOO Construction, Incorporated• Kollmorgen Corporation, Electro-Optical Division• Kongsberg Defense• Korte Company, The• Kovatch Corporation• Knights Armament Company• Krempp Lumber Company, TheL• L-3 Combat Propulsion Systems• L-3 Communications Cincinnati Electronics• L-3 Communications Corporation (ALL)• L-3 Communications Corporation, Communications Systems West• L-3 Communications Corporation, Integrated Systems Joint Operations• L-3 Communications TItan Corporation, Intelligence Systems Division• L-3 Communications Corporation, Link Simulation and Training• L-3 Communications Electron Technologies, Incorporated• L-3 Communications, Linkabit Division• L-3 Communications System West• L-3 Communications Titan Corporation• L-3 Communications Vertex Aerospace LLC• L-3 Services, Incorporated• L-3 Services, Incorporated, Unidyne Division• L-3 Titan Corporation• LABATT Food Service, Incorporated• Lake Moultrie Construction, Incorporated• Lakeshore Engineering Services, Incorporated• Lawman Heating and Cooling, Incorporated• Lean Quest, LLC• Lear Siegler Services, Incorporated• Lee Escher Oil Company, Incorporated• Leemon Oil Company, Incorporated• Lincoln Public Schools• LINXX Security Services• Lion Vallen Limited Partnership• Litton Systems, Incorporated• Lobar, Incorporated• Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Global Sustainment• Lockheed Martin Aircraft and Logistics• Lockheed Martin Company, Lockheed Martin Aeronautical Systems• Lockheed Martin Corporation (ALL)• Lockheed Martin Corporation, Lockheed Martin Aeronautical Systems Company• Lockheed Martin Corporation, Lockheed Martin Simulator, Training and Support• Lockheed Martin Corporation, Lockheed Martin Systems Integration• Lockheed Martin Corporation, Naval Electronics and Surveillance Division• Lockheed Martin Corporation, Space Systems Company• Lockheed Martin Corporation, Training Systems, Sensors• Lockheed Martin Integrated Defense Systems• Lockheed Martin Integrated Systems and Solutions• Lockheed Martin Maritime Systems and Sensors• Lockheed Martin Missile and Fire Control• Lockheed Martin MS2 Division• Lockheed Martin Services, Incorporated• Lockheed Martin Space Systems Corporation• Lockheed Martin Systems Integration• LOM• Long Beach• Longbow LLC• Longbow Liability Company• LLC International Truck Body• Lowry Computer Products, Incorporated• LPI Technical Services• LTM, Incorporated• Lynden Air Cargo LLCM• M2 Technologies, Incorporated• M7 Aerospace• M & S Foods Ltd Company• M/A-Com, Incorporated• MacAulay-Brown, Incorporated• M A Mortenson Company, Incorporated• Mabey Bridge and Shore, Incorporated• Machining Technologies• MacGREGOR USA, Incorporated• Macquarie Aviation North America 2, Incorporated Atlantic Gulfport Division• Macaulay-Brown, Incorporated• MACRO-Z Technology Company• Maine Secure Composites LLC• Management Consulting, Incorporated• MAN Diesel LTD• Manson Construction Company• ManTech Enterprise Integration Center, Advanced Systems International, Incorporated• ManTech Systems Engineering Corporation• Manufacturing Technology, Incorporated• Marine Hydraulics International• Marinette Marine Corporation• Mark G Miller, Incorporated• Martin Construction, Incorporated• Martin Electronics, Incorporated• Mason & Hanger Corporation• Matson Navigation Company, Incorporated• Maytag Aircraft Corporation• Materials Sciences Corporation• Maxim Systems, Incorporated• MBDA, Incorporated• M.C. Dean, Incorporated• McDonnell Douglas Corporation (ALL)• McDonnell Douglas Helicopter Company• McDonnell Douglas Helicopter Corporation• McGoldrick Construction Services Corporation• McKesson Corporation• McLaughlin Research Corporation• McLean Contracting Company• MedImmune Shepherdsville• Medtronic Emergency Response Systems• Melwood Horticultural Training Center, Incorporated• Menlo Worldwide Government Services, LLC• Meridian Airport Authority dba Meridian Aviation• Merlin International, Incorporated• Metal USA i-Solutions• Miami Air International, Incorporated• Michelin Aircraft Tire Company, LLC• Michelin North America, Incorporated• Microelectronics Advanced Research Corporation• MidAmerican Energy Company• Midwest Research Institute• Military Systems Group, Incorporated• Miller Watts Constructors-Pave Tech, A Joint Venture• Minacorp Ltd• Miramar Construction, Incorporated• Misener Construction, Incorporated• Mississippi Limestone Corporation• Mitchell Brothers, Incorporated• MITRE Corporation• MKI Systems• MMI – Federal Marketing Service Corporation• Montana Refining Company, Incorporated• Montgomery Watson Harza, MWH Constructors, Incorporated• Morgan Stanley Capital Group, Incorporated• Motorola, Incorporated• MPC Containment Systems Ltd• MPRI, Incorporated• M.R. Pittman Group LLC• MTU DetroitDiesel, Incorporated• Multinational Logistic Services Limited• Murray Air, Incorporated• MW Builders of Texas, Incorporated• Mykotronx, IncorporatedN• Nacre AS• Nakaya Construction LLC• Nan, Incorporated• Nan, Incorporated dba Ocean House Builders• Nana Pacific LLC• National Steel and Shipping Company• Navajo Refining Company• Naval Automation Group• NAVFAC• Navistar Defense LLC• NAVMAR Applied Sciences• NDTS Aviation Services, Incorporated• NES Government Services, Incorporated• New Mexico Technology Group, LLC• Newport News Shipbuilding• New South Construction Company• Niking Corporation• Nineteenth HFC Leasing Corporation• Norfolk Dredging Company• North American Rescue Product, Incorporated• North Island Corporation / Centennial Contractors Enterprises, Incorporated• Northeast Maryland Waste Disposal Authority• Northrop Grumman Company, Electro-Optical Systems• Northrop Grumman Corporation (ALL)• Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems• Northrop Grumman Corporation Electronic-Marine Systems• Northrop Grumman Defense Mission Systems, Incorporated• Northrop Grumman Information Technology• Northrop Grumman Mission Systems• Northrop Grumman Mission Systems / Electromagnetic Systems• Northrop Grumman Newport News• Northrop Grumman PRB Systems• Northrop Grumman Ship Systems• Northrop Grumman Space and Mission Systems Corporation, Mission Systems, Missile Defense Division• Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation• Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation, Electronics Sensors Systems Section• Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation, Integrated Systems Sector• Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation, Integrated Systems Western Region• Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation, Integrated Systems Air Combat Systems• Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation, Navigation Systems Division• Northrop Grumman Technical Services, Incorporated• Northrop Grumman Technical Services Sector• Northrop Grumman XonTech Systems, Incorporated• Northwest Florida Facilities Management, Incorporated• Northwest McGrath JV LLC• Nova Group, Incorporated• Nueces Electric CooperativeO• OAK Group, Incorporated, The• OCCI, Incorporated• Ocean House Builders• Ocean Systems Engineering Corporation• Oceaneering International, Incorporated (ALL)• Oceaneering International, Incorporated, Marine Services Division• Octagon Process, Incorporated• Odebrecht Construction, Incorporated• Odyssey International• O’Gara Hess and Eisenhardt• Okland Construction Company, Incorporated• Oldenburg Group, Incorporated• Olin / Winchester• Omega Aerial Refueling Services, Incorporated• Onyx of Alexandria, Incorporated dba The Onyx Group• Optics 1, Incorporated• Optical Systems Technology, Incorporated• Osborne Construction Company• Oshkosh Corporation (ALL)• Oshkosh Truck Corporation• Oracle Corporation• Orbital Sciences Corporation• Orbital Sciences Corporation, Launch Systems Group• Owens and MinorP• P & S Construction, Incorporated• Pacific Consolidated Industries LLC• Pacific Science Engineering Group• Pacific Ship Repair and Fabrication• Pacific West Builders• PAE Government Services, Incorporated• Paramount Petroleum Corporation• Parsons Infrastructure and Technology Group• Pasha Hawaii Transport Lines LLC• Passport Systems, Incorporated• Patten Energy Enterprises, Incorporated• Pave-Tech, Incorporated• Pearson Engineering Ltd• Pegasus Global, Incorporated• Pendleton Group, Incorporated• Petro Star, Incorporated• Pepco Energy Services, Incorporated• Phelps/Kiewit• Phillips Contracting, Incorporated• Phoenix Air Group• Phoenix Fuel LLC• Photo-Sonics, Incorporated• Piedmont Hawthorne Aviation LLC• Pioneer Adult Rehabilitation Center• Placid Refining Company LLC• Point Blank Body Armor, Incorporated• Polkton Manufacturing Company• Pratt & Whitney, Incorporated• Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne• Pratt and Whitney United Technologies Corporation• Presidential Airways, Incorporated, an Aviation Worldwide Services Company (Blackwater Aviation)• Prexis, Incorporated• Price Waterhouse Coopers LLP• Production Products Manufacturing and Sales Company, Incorporated• Productive Products International• Professional Contract Services Incorporated• Progeny Systems Corporation• Propper International, Incorporated• Protected Vehicles, Incorporated• Public Warehousing Company PSC• Pyramid ServicesQ• QED Systems, Incorporated• QUASAR Federal Systems, Incorporated• Qwest Government Services, IncorporatedR• R.A. Burch Construction Company, Incorporated• Radian, Incorporated• Ranger Aviation Enterprises, Incorporated• Raytheon Company, The (ALL)• Raytheon Company AMDS• Raytheon Company, Electronics Systems• Raytheon Company, Integrated Defense Systems• Raytheon Electronics Systems• Raytheon Electronic Warfare Systems• Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems• Raytheon / Lockheed Martin Javelin• Raytheon Missile Systems• Raytheon, Network Centric Systems• Raytheon RF Components• Raytheon Southeast Asia Systems Company• Raytheon Space and Airborne Systems• Raytheon Systems Company• Raytheon Technical Services Company• Raytheon Technical Services, Incorporated• RC Construction Company, Incorporated• Readiness Management Support LC• Record Steel and Construction, Incorporated• Red Star Enterprises Limited• Refinery Associates of Texas• Reger Group LLC• Reliant Energy Solutions East• Remotec, Incorporated• Research Associates for Defense Conversion, Incorporated• Revenge Advanced Composites LLC• Reyes Construction, Incorporated• Rheinmetall Waffe Munition GmbH dba Niederlassung NICO Trittau• Richard E. Pierson Construction Company, Incorporated• River Trading Company LLC• Robert Orr – SYSCO Food Services• Robertson Aviation LLC• Rockwell Collins, Incorporated (ALL)• Rockwell Collins, Incorporated, Government Systems Division• Rockwell Collins Government Systems, Incorporated• Rockwell Collins Services• Rogers-Quinn Construction, Incorporated• Rolands and Associates, Incorporated• Rolls Royce (ALL)• Rolls Royce Corporation• Rolls Royce Engine Services• Rolls Royce Naval Marine, Incorporated• Rolls Royce plc• Rome Research Corporation• Roselm Industries, Incorporated• Rosemont Aerospace, Incorporated• Rotordynamics-Seal Research• Rheinmetall Waffe Munition GmbH• RQ Construction, Incorporated• RS Information Systems, IncorporatedS• S & K Sales Corporation• S & M & Associates, Incorporated• SAAB Bofors Dynamics AB• SAAB Training, LLC• Sambe Construction Company, Incorporated• Sampson Construction• San Diego State University Foundation• Sarnoff Corporation• Sauer, Incorporated• Sauer, Incorporated, dba Sauer Southeast• S B Ballard Construction Company• Schafer Corporation• Schutt Industries, Incorporated• Science Applications International Corporation• Scientific Applications International Corporation• Scott Alliance, Incorporated• Sea Box, Incorporated• Sealevel Systems, Incorporated• Sealift, Incorporated• SeaPort-e• Select Engineering Services• Select Sensors and Airborne Systems Electro-Optics Limited• Sensors Unlimited, Incorporated• SERCO, Incorporated• Seven Seas Shiphandlers• Seyer Industries, Incorporated• SFA, Incorporated• Shell Chemical Yabucoa, Incorporated• Sidran, Incorporated• Sierra Nevada Corporation• SIGCOM, Incorporated• Signal Systems Corporation• Signal Technology Corporation• Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation• Sikorsky Support Services• Silver Eagle Manufacturing Company• Simula Aerospace (ALL)• Simula Aerospace & Defense Group, Incorporated• Simmonds Precision Products, Incorporated, DBA Goodrich Fuel and Utility Systems• Singh Group, Incorporated dba Baja Pacific• Science Applications International Corporation• Schutt Industries, Incorporated• SFA, Incorporated• Shamrock Foods• Shanska USA Building, Incorporated• Shaw Environmental, Incorporated• Shaw Infrastructure, Incorporated• Shee Atika Languages LLC• Shutt Industries• Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation• Simula Aerospace• Skanska USA Civil Southeast, Incorporated• Sippican/Granite State Manufacturing Submarine Antenna Joint Venture• Slone Associates, Incorporated• SLR Contracting and Service Company, Incorporated• SM Wilson• Small Business Group• Smiths Aerospace LLC, Electronic Systems• Smiths Aerospace Mechanical Systems• Smiths Detection, Incorporated• Snap-On Industrial• SNC Technologies, Incorporated• SNC Telecommunications, LLC• SOC-SMG• Sodexho Management, Incorporated• Soltek Pacific Construction Company• Source for Native American Products• SOPAKCO, Incorporated• Southern Research Institute• Spain AFS• Sparta, Incorporated• Sparton Electronics• Spawglass Contractors, Incorporated• Special T Hosiery Mills, Incorporated• Special Tactical Services LLC• Spectrum Comm, Incorporated• Speegle Construction, Incorporated• Sprung, Incorporated• SRC Tec, Incorporated• Ssangyong USA, Incorporated• Standard Aero, Incorporated• Stanley Associates, Incorporated• Stauder Technologies• Static Energy LLC• Sterling Foods, Ltd• Stewart and Stevenson Tactical Vehicle Systems (ALL)• Stewart and Stevenson Tactical Vehicle Systems LP• Stewart and Stevenson Tactical Vehicle, Division of Armor Holdings• Stronghold Engineering, Incorporated• Structural Associates, Incorporated• Sumaria Systems, Incorporated• SUMMA Technology, Incorporated• Sundt Construction, Incorporated• Superior Graphite Company• SupplyCore, Incorporated• Supreme Foodservice AG• SURVICE Engineering Company• Symetrics Industries• Sys Technologies, Incorporated• Systems Research and Applications Corporation• Sysco Central Florida• Sysco Food Service of Hampton Roads• SYSCO Foods of Seattle• Sytex, IncorporatedT• Taber Construction, Incorporated• Taitec, Incorporated• Talbert Manufacturing• Talley Defense Systems• TASC, Incorporated• Tatilek Support Services, Incorporated• T.B. Penick and Sons, Incorporated• TCI Architects Engineers Contractors, Incorporated• TEAM Construction, LLC• Team Logistics Joint Venture• TEC, Incorporated• Technical Communications Corporation• Techno-Sciences, Incorporated• Technology Service Corporation• Tecolote Research Incorporated• TECOM, Incorporated• Teksouth Corporation• Tel Instrument Electronics Corporation• Telecommunication Systems, Incorporated• Teledyne Benthos• Teledyne Scientific and Imaging• Teledyne Wireless• Telephonics Corporation• Telford Aviation• Tennessee Apparel LLC• Tennier Industries• Terra Mississippi Nitrogen• Terex Corporation• Tesoro Corporation• Tesoro Refining and Marketing Company• Test and Experimentation Services Company• Tetra Tech (ALL)• Tetra Tech EC, Incorporated• Tetra Tech NUS, Incorporated• Textron Marine & Land Systems• Tiber Creek Consulting, Incorporated• Thales Communications, Incorporated• Thales-Raytheon Systems Company LLC• Theodor Willie Intertrade• Thermo Pac LLC• Thomas Computer Solutions LLC• THR Enterprises, Incorporated• Three Phoenix, Incorporated• TJC Engineering, Incorporated• TLD America Corporation• Todd Pacific Shipyards Corporation• TolTest, Incorporated• Tompkins Builders, Incorporated• Trajen Flight Support LP dba Atlantic Division• Trans-TEC• Tri-County International Trucks, Incorporated• Trimble Navigation Limited• Triton Marine Construction Corporation• Triton Services, Incorporated• Triton Services, Incorporated, Electronic Technology Division• Treadwell Corporation• Triple Canopy• Truman Arnold Companies• T Square Logistics Services Corporation• Ttec-Tesoro, Joint Venture• Tuckman-Barbee Construction Company, Incorporated• TUG Technologies Corporation• Tulip Corporation dba PHI• Tullahoma Industries, LLC• Tulsair Beechcraft, Incorporated• Turbo Combustor Technology, Incorporated• TW Metals, Incorporated• Tybrin CorporationU• Ultra Electronics Advanced Tactical System• Undersea Sensor Systems, Incorporated• United Parcel Service (UPS), Incorporated• United Technologies Corporation• United Technologies Corporation, Pratt & Whitney Aircraft Group• United Technologies Corporation, Pratt & Whitney, Military Engines• University of Central Florida• University of Hawaii• University of Southern California• Universal Technology Corporation• Universal Technologies• Urban Associates LP• US Foods International• US Foodservice (ALL)• US Foodservice Lexington• US Ordnance• US Tactical Supply, Incorporated• Utah State University Research Foundation• Utility Contractors, IncorporatedV• Valero Marketing & Supply Company• Valley Apparel LLC• Valley Power Systems, Incorporated• Vane Line Bunkering, Incorporated• Vanguard Contractors• Vasquez Marshall Architects• VBR Joint Venture• Vericor Power Systems, LLC• Veridian Systems Division• Verizon• Vetco Contracting Services LLC• Veterans Enterprises Technology Services LLC• ViaSat• Vinghog AS• Virtexco Corporation• Vision Systems International• VT Griffin Services, Incorporated• VT Halter Marine, IncorporatedW• Walbridge Aldinger Company• Walbridge Construction• Walton Construction Company• WareOnEarth Communications, Incorporated• Washington Harris Group, Incorporated• Watterson / Davis• Watterson Construction Company• Watkins Aircraft Support Products• Watkinson LLC• Watts Constructors LLC• Weeks Marine, Incorporated• Welin Lambie LTD• Wellco Enterprises• Wellstone Apparel, LLC• Western Marine Construction, Incorporated• Weston Solutions, Incorporated• WF Magann Corporation• WG Yates & Sons Construction Company• Wolf Coach, Incorporated• Wolverine and CADDO Joint Venture• Wolverine World Wide, Incorporated• Wood Brothers, Incorporated• Woodward Governor Company• Woolrich, Incorporated• World Fuels America• World Fuel Services America, Incorporated• World Fuel Services Corporation• Wornick Company, The• Whitesell-Green, Incorporated• Whiting Turner Contracting Compan• W. M. Jordan Company, Incorporated• Wyle Laboratories, IncorporatedX• Xceedium, Incorporated• Xerox Corporation• Xilinx, IncorporatedY• Yellowstone Electric Company• York International Corporation• Y Hata and Company, LimitedZ• Z Corporation• Zeitgeist Expression, Incorporated• Ziva Corporation#• 3001, Incorporated
Average Jane • June 4th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
I live in a metro area in the Midwest. A couple of years ago a study stated that a single person would have to make a wage of $17 an hour just to afford to live here, never mind buying a home.I too think this wage destruction may just be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. We will have 100 million uninsured if wages go back to 1990 levels and prices stay at 2008 levels. No one will be able to afford to keep a roof over their head or food in the cupboard or automobile or house payments.You keep on giving us the stats, MM CA. You’re doing a great service. Thank you.
Average Jane • June 4th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
So instead of free wheat we have credit cards.We’ve come a long way, baby.Professor Roubini has it right: we do not have a credit crisis; we have a debt crisis.
Michelle • June 4th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
You’re from Cali and you’re reading the Idaho Fartsman? Amazing, I barely read it!
Average Jane • June 4th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
You must not understand the dynamics and fundamentals of economics… to attain 400k a month job growth next month you would have to stop 600k in loss- net equals 1 million new jobs… Credit card lines are being cut from 5 trillion to 2.5 trillion as we speak… you should let the rest of us 307 million americans into that bubble you reside in…
Michelle • June 4th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
June 12th is the date set for GM’s CDS auction, but we may see a pullback anytime from Wednesday next week until then. But it will be just my luck that nothing will happen. Syngora CDS auction was last Weds., market drops 173 pts. JLSA bank CDS auction today, the market dropped 3 digits yesterday, then the market reverses and we only lose 65 pts.The point I’ve always been trying to make is that I’ve been watching these auctions since last August, Fannie and Freddie were huge, and the market tanked. Follow these by Lehman, WaMu, 3 Icelandic banks, and many corporate auction in February, and they these stock market plunges are so heavily correlated you’d have to be as dense as a box of rocks not to see it.In addition, you will also notice that oil and pm sell off, and the dollar rises during these auctions. These are cash auctions and the need for U.S. dollars is great as they are generally priced in dollars. You hear pundits as to why oil went down when the dollar went up and the analysts scratch their heads and can’t make heads or tales of it. Make no mistake, it’s a lack of liquidity, which is why the Fed created the Supplemental Liquidity Program, administered by the great and powerful Goldman Sachs.As I don’t see any catalysts that will, in the near future besides next week, drive the markets down, I believe we’re in a bull market. Fundamentals don’t exist and never have, it’s all been a huge smoke screen.
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
Nice explanation Michele!!!!
Guest too blindly • June 4th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
a,i hate when that happens.
Guest martin • June 4th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/45a/058.html…We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In this unfolding conundrum of life and history there is such a thing as being too late. Procrastination is still the thief of time. Life often leaves us standing bare, naked and dejected with a lost opportunity. The “tide in the affairs of men” does not remain at the flood; it ebbs. We may cry out deperately for time to pause in her passage, but time is deaf to every plea and rushes on. Over the bleached bones and jumbled residue of numerous civilizations are written the pathetic words: “Too late.” There is an invisible book of life that faithfully records our vigilance or our neglect. “The moving finger writes, and having writ moves on…” We still have a choice today; nonviolent coexistence or violent co-annihilation.We must move past indecision to action. We must find new ways to speak for peace in Vietnam and justice throughout the developing world — a world that borders on our doors. If we do not act we shall surely be dragged down the long dark and shameful corridors of time reserved for those who possess power without compassion, might without morality, and strength without sight.Now let us begin. Now let us rededicate ourselves to the long and bitter — but beautiful — struggle for a new world. This is the callling of the sons of God, and our brothers wait eagerly for our response. Shall we say the odds are too great? Shall we tell them the struggle is too hard? Will our message be that the forces of American life militate against their arrival as full men, and we send our deepest regrets? Or will there be another message, of longing, of hope, of solidarity with their yearnings, of commitment to their cause, whatever the cost? The choice is ours, and though we might prefer it otherwise we must choose in this crucial moment of human history. …
Guest martin • June 4th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/45a/058.html…We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In this unfolding conundrum of life and history there is such a thing as being too late. Procrastination is still the thief of time. Life often leaves us standing bare, naked and dejected with a lost opportunity. The “tide in the affairs of men” does not remain at the flood; it ebbs. We may cry out deperately for time to pause in her passage, but time is deaf to every plea and rushes on. Over the bleached bones and jumbled residue of numerous civilizations are written the pathetic words: “Too late.” There is an invisible book of life that faithfully records our vigilance or our neglect. “The moving finger writes, and having writ moves on…” We still have a choice today; nonviolent coexistence or violent co-annihilation.We must move past indecision to action. We must find new ways to speak for peace in Vietnam and justice throughout the developing world — a world that borders on our doors. If we do not act we shall surely be dragged down the long dark and shameful corridors of time reserved for those who possess power without compassion, might without morality, and strength without sight.Now let us begin. Now let us rededicate ourselves to the long and bitter — but beautiful — struggle for a new world. This is the callling of the sons of God, and our brothers wait eagerly for our response. Shall we say the odds are too great? Shall we tell them the struggle is too hard? Will our message be that the forces of American life militate against their arrival as full men, and we send our deepest regrets? Or will there be another message, of longing, of hope, of solidarity with their yearnings, of commitment to their cause, whatever the cost? The choice is ours, and though we might prefer it otherwise we must choose in this crucial moment of human history. …
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
http://www.militaryindustrialcomplex.com/companies.asp.source..the Military-Industrial Complex
Michelle • June 4th, 2009 at 8:53 pm
As Elvis would say, “Thank you, thank you very much!”
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
Geithner tells China its dollar assets are safe”Chinese assets are very safe,” Geithner said in response to a question after a speech at Peking University, where he studied Chinese as a student in the 1980s.His answer drew loud laughter from his student audience, reflecting skepticism in China about the wisdom of a developing country accumulating a vast stockpile of foreign reserves instead of spending the money to raise living standards at home.http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSPEK14475620090601
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
When I bought my house in 1999 interest rates were about 6% to 7% and the loan broker mentioned the three times your salary rule as a guide. Old fashioned, I know. He also told me not to overimprove my house with options (I was buying new construction). The loan broker was a young guy, but apparently out of step with the fashion of the loan industry.
Michelle • June 4th, 2009 at 9:44 pm
Challenging but extremely rewarding and my family is all that matters in the thick of it.We are very fortunate to have a place to exchange thoughts and ideas and I feel a level of comfort being in the company of friends that have the same concerns and fears of the future as I do. I hope and pray the best for us all.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 10:17 pm
After America shouldn’t be so hard to forsee: The Shanghai Cooperative Organization
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
What does fair share mean? As I understand it, almost half of Americans towards the lower end of the income scale pay no taxes whatsover. Yet they reap all the benefits and get to cast a vote for the politician that promises them even more of a free ride. How is this fair?Give your head a shake!
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 10:46 pm
Obama is a one term president, just like Jimmy Carter.The man is great in front of a teleprompter but that’s about it. No substance whatsoever. Unfortunately, the damage he is doing may be irreparable.He’s selling America down the river for the sake of his socialist ideas.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
He keeps giving you the stats but nary a solution. What good is that?
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 10:59 pm
Think of the job losses that Obama is saving by letting all those contracts!
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 11:06 pm
Don’t take it hard Michelle. You have very worthwhile posts. There is sexism on this blog. Anyone been around long enough to remember Sharzadh?Ungendered guest
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 11:14 pm
If you notice I ask for help on the NO JOBS issue and i did write some solutions recently… The problem is so complex and so deep and the PTB keep changing the fixes almost monthly it is impossible to hit a homwe run at this. part of solving any problem is fully understanding it, which i dont pretend to at this time. so if there are approx 20 million or more out of work presently where should they go to work (at decent and fair wage based on skills)?Throw some solutions out or do you not understnad the problems in the simplest terms?
MM CA • June 4th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
here is one from me from 3 weeks ago…go ahead and pick it apart, then lets hear some of your ideasNO JOBS, NO JOBS, NO JOBS- so whats the fix? here is one:Ask yourself how much have we injected into saving, fixing , bailing out Banks, Wall Street, Auto’s, Fannie, Freddie, China? by most estimates it is TRILLIONS… is it 4 trillion, 6 trillion, 11 trillion – probaby something in those numbers. Now what have they all done with that money? Most of the receipients of the “Trillions” have themselves made massive job cuts and layoffs. That alone tells me they dont feel they will need the workers moving forward to service the economy because they also see no JOB Creation.So back to the fix:There are probably 50 consistent posters on this site and another 50 or so who all contribute. Everyone writes well, thinks intelligently, comes across as caring for the country and its people, seems smart, seem like they have business backrounds… another words, Good people. So take those 100, Make Roubini the CEO, start a company and ask Obama for 1 Trillion in hard cash to run a buisiness that actaully creates jobs. here is what 1 trillion can create:My Plan Annual Cost Employees Salary Bene$1,000,000,000,000 $70,000 14,285714 $50,000 $20,000$2,000,000,000,000 $70,000 28,571429 $50,000 $20,000My Plan Annual Cost Employees Salary Bene$1,000,000,000,000 $84,000 11,904762 $60,000 $24,000$2,000,000,000,000 $84,000 23,809524 $60,000 $24,000Now we have just employeed over 14 million at 50K annual salaries, with full health, 20 paid vacations days, 401k/pension contributions – another full benefits. Cost 1 Trillion. I threw in scenario’s for what 2 trillion would do and also if everyone made 60K annually. Most fortune 500′s average about 30-40% in fringe costs. samller companies less. so i took the higest rate of 40%. make sure everyone is covered and not on the cheap. So everyone is already poking holes… What about overhead costs, facility costs etc…it all depends on what these folks do. right now they are employed doing nothing… so there are no fixed costs other than small administration costs for payroll and benfits.How about a Green energy company prodcuing solar, wind, alternative products for commericial and residential consumers throughout the country. It includes installing and maintaing these products… I would declare a national solar energy mission — solar energy including waves, wind, photovoltaics, solar thermal and passive solar architecture. Open up the whole frontier and make that the priority as we convert our country to renewables. Get Boone Pikens to run it and have Roubini or(Braintrust)manage the $$$$ Rememebr everyone makes the same salary for now.Now figure that income taxes on this company and all the workers could effectivley return 150 Billion – 250 billion back to the gov’t annually. But the first three years of this effort, those taxes that would be paid have to be used for the overheads required to run a company this big.. for the company buy the materials needed. Revenue generation/prices for the products and serivces would be made afforadable to all.to sum it up- give me, give us 1-2 trillion and we could create anyhwere from 11 million to 28 million jobs depeneding on the amount received…But no instead, we have chosen to go down the roads of portecting and funneling Trillions the PTB that could care less about JOBS and JOB creation.The above is just to point out how the money should be used and sure anyone could poke holes in it, but its rough and high level. But i am convinced i could find 100 people form this site that could make soemthing similar work.
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
For all flesh is like grass,and all its glory like the flower of grass.The grass withers,and the flower falls… -I PETER IDo you know whose tomb these words and music grace?
Guest • June 4th, 2009 at 11:46 pm
Answer: A very intelligent and far-sighted man. The father of the Federal Reserve and predictor of the 1929 crash, known before Oct. 1929 as Gloomy Gus: Paul Warburg.
economicminor • June 4th, 2009 at 11:50 pm
I still want to know how all this money is going to get into circulation?We have declining retail sales. We have declining housing market. We have hotels at less than 50% occupancy. We have more and more people unemployed… We even have lowering energy use and fuel use…So IF all the money being borrowed or printed is doing more than filling a huge black hole and actually causes commodities to rise in a speculative frenzy, the consumer (70% of the economy) will crash and burn, leaving what for an economy?I know the common sense for inflation from monetary expansion but it appears to me that deflation is still the 800# gorilla in the room. What if all this monetary expansion is just going to replace fantasy money on balance sheets and there really isn’t any left over to cause rising prices?AND exactly HOW is this money going to get in to circulation? Not thru the traditional means of lending.. Not this time. Not with 18% unemployed and Alt A, Option ARMs on the verge of collapsing housing further, the auto industry on the rocks, auto suppliers near bankru

