secundo!why is it that commodities would come under such pressure? wouldn’t the stimulus and other attempts to restore economic growth cause prices to stay even, or is it due to excess inventory/overhang in a stagnant market?it just seems like there is still demand for goods in poorer parts of the world that haven’t seen prices this cheap since 4-5 years ago and they may result to hoarding/est. a base from which prices can remain flat.

Good article at marketwatch.com entitled “Jack Bauer cam’t stop the Goldman Conspiracy” – 10 reasons why Wall Street has absolute power over America’s democracy

bravo

and just so we know our future is being taken care of- lol…http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/college/2009-04-21-tuition-public_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip

as if we didnt already know…. California leading the way as it always does….Four states dominate city foreclosure rankingsThe top 26 areas are in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevadahttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30332520/

Bank Profits Appear Out of Thin Airhttp://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/21/business/21sorkin.html?_r=1&ref=business

Small and medium size businesses are going out of business at am alarming rate… And new business starts are a pipe dream these days…Record Number Of State Businesses Close In First Quarterhttp://www.courant.com/business/hc-connecticut-business-closing.artapr21,0,5093916.story

I was listening to CNBC while reading this and noticed the stark contrast between CNBC’s bright, optimistic outlook and insistence that everything is bottoming now, preceding a recovery in housing soon and the economy later this year – they said essentially the same things repeatedly in 2007 and 2008. The banks are reported to be doing great now, but no mention anymore of the government’s collusion with them to produce the appearance of profitability. So far, RGE has been correct and CNBC’s always optimistic, bullish guests and regulars have been wrong.

The piece you are overlooking is the incredible debt to income ratio in the US.What is going on with oil is a hope of return to previous economic expansion… YET that is not going to happen for multiple reasons. Debt is primary but then there is demographics and how the social and political structures in the rest of the world are configured.Any attempt at recovery before the levels of debt are reduced will result in a short term slow down in decline leading to an eventual waterfall decline. Especially when those in charge still believe in trickle down economic theory. It has been a disaster. Trickle up works but trickle down only amasses more and more wealth in the hands of the few who have NO idea what to do with it except gamble.

@OJ”haven’t seen prices this cheap since 4-5 years ago”What country do you live in? This deflation everyone speaks of just doesn’t add up. Tell me: What prices are falling other than electronics and housing? It might be happening but I don’t see it, particularly with essentials. I think the government continues to play with the statistics.

I don’t see oil contracting – the flight to safety as the dollar devalues

I wonder when the prices will start to fall in the wealthy, coastal areas of CA. In places like Newport Beach, there has been about 400% appreciation in the last 10-15 years. So far, these areas have hardly seen any decline at all relative to other areas, except for condos. I get the feeling some of these areas are just starting to see some cracks.

I don’t want to distract too much from the economic discussion here. A couple of quick replies to my earlier comments, and feedback from readers.The point of discussing Pakistan, Iran, and nuclear weapons is not to disseminate propaganda or to vent political diatribes. The point is that the world is changing. American power is ebbing and our ability to “control” global events is diminishing.We need to change our world view, or we will be hostage to old policies that don’t work.The Taliban have made advances in both Swat and Buner (Pakistan). Yes, these are mountainous regions well away from central life in Pakistan. But 5 years ago it would have been considered “unthinkable” that the Taliban occupied any of these districts. No, the Taliban may not be able to strike Islamabad from where they are. But that’s not the real change. The issue is that Pakistan may crumble from within. If a majority of the population decides to favor the more hardline Islamic parties – then we can’t change that. It is not necessary for the Taliban to achieve “airlift capability”. Pakistan is shaky on both economic and political tems. The country is becoming open to a more sweeping change in ideology. That’s something we may be unable to prevent.A far as the Iranians go – if they wanted peaceful nuclear reactors they could have proceeded on a dozen different paths (all fully acceptable to the world community). The path they are currently on puts them in a direct position to achieve nuclear weapons capability in the short term. No-one knows when exactly they might do that – or if they will. It could be sooner or later. But they are in a position to make this fundamental change in power very soon.My comments are not intended to “scare” people. I am not advocating right-wing Republican ideologies or political claptrap. The problem we face in the USA is not dependent on party lines. We face the bigger issue of dealing with a world that is changing rapidly, and our ability to influence that world will be reduced. Things that were once considered “unthinkable” may have to be revised. I can’t tell which way the Obama administration will move on these issues. But they will face them. Pehaps we will try to change things. Or maybe America will be forced to accept changes in the world that we don’t like – and adjust our policies accordingly. The world is not our apple any more.PeteCA

Professor Johnson wins his argument hands down. Martin Wolf argues as an apologist for Wall Street.The overt and egregious corruption of which Wolf speaks is overt and egregious regardless of what country engages in it. To argue that in the US, “influence comes as much from a system of beliefs as from lobbying” and that “ what was good for Wall Street was deemed good for the world,” is untrue. The only people taken in by this argument, IMO, are in the U.S. Congress. As for America’s “system of beliefs,” it is true that as the ACLU systematically rips The Ten Commandments off the walls of America’s courthouses, it is ripping off her culture, but that is being achieved through duplicitous judges, not by the will of the people.It is true that years ago there was a feeling that what was good for Wall Street was good for America on the general belief that Wall Street represented American business, that its growth represented a growth in America that provided for jobs, security, prosperity. But it has been years since the people viewed Wall Street as a barometer for American business. It was a mistaken belief then, but now, it’s obvious to all thinking people that it is not true. It’s rather a crime for Wolf to say differently, but he’s shown before that he is not dependable.As for Wolf’s premise that “the belief that Wall Street needs to be preserved largely as it is now is mainly a consequence of fear,” I contend that the fear comes from politicians of the bankers who hold their congressional jobs in the balance. Wolf’s argument here is generalized mush–wasted words.As for Wolf’s assertion that “the core financial institutions must become credibly solvent,” must they? To create a viable financial system keeping on the current core of financials that Wolf appears to be talking about, providing that they are solvent, is living in a fantasy world. To think that with a little restructuring, if they do become solvent, that this current core of financials is going to become honest is more than most people can believe. Americans want solvent companies that play by the same rules that the rest of us play by, namely, that you can’t call Barney Frank 24/7 and tell him what to do. If these banks can’t operate honestly like the rest of us, then it is immaterial whether they are solvent or not. They need to be “unhere.”I agree with Wolf’s conclusion, however, that this “is not capitalism, but socialism…that “Bankruptcy – and so losses for unsecured creditors – must be a part of any durable solution. Without that change, the resolution of this crisis can only be the harbinger of the next.”

Most of the guests are one trick ponies and don’t know how to play a down market.

I agree totally… But the US is our core apple… It Just seems Obama and the US is fighting fires everywhere these days both domestically and abroad. I always hold my hat on we are still strongest military in the world, with a not too well known missile defense system that protects us as well as the most capable Nuclear arsenal in the world… So if all these whacky fundamentalist people and countries trully want to harm us or attack us, we have the means to respond and protect our own country.We should nuke our banking industry instead and start from scratch…

Why Housing Is Not Coming Backhttp://www.businessinsider.com/why-housing-is-not-coming-back-2009-4Our summary of Charles Hugh Smith’s critique of the idea that we should be looking for a a recovery in the housing market to bubble valuations to “restart the economy” generated a lot of controversy. We’re not sure the summary did justice to Smith’s argument. With his permission, we give you his entire essay here. For more from Smith, go to his provocative website, OfTwoMinds.——————————————————————————–The entire world is hoping that housing is about to “recover” and re-ascend its glorious bubble-era heights of valuation. But it’s not going to happen.Why not? For several fundamental reasons:1. Bubbles do not re-inflate in the asset class which just popped. It is simply a truism that bubbles never reflate, ever. Tulip bulb valuations did not rise to stratospheric heights after the Tulip Craze popped, and the Nasdaq dot-com bubble did not reinflate, either, for the very good reason that bubbles are never based on rational valuations–they are based on the psychological state of mania which cannot be reinstated once lost.Consider tech stock Cisco Systems (CSCO), a well-managed “real company” which continues to make profits providing real-world goods and services. It currently trades at around $17.50 a share, down from its dot-com bubble valuation of about $81/share.To “recover” its bubble-era valuation, Cisco would have to rise five-fold. That’s not going to happen. Now that the mania has dissipated, Cisco is valued on more rational metrics like earnings, profits, etc.The speculative mania always moves on to a new asset class. After the dot-com bubble popped, the speculative bubble moved on to housing. Now that the housing bubble has popped, the mania has moved to the bond market. When the bond bubble bursts (it’s guaranteed that it will in the next two years, losing 50% or more in the process) then the only asset class which hasn’t already been blown into a bubble is precious metals/gold.In other words: those wishing to catch the next speculative mania should be buying gold and silver, not stocks, housing or bonds.2. Inflation sets the “recovery” target ever higher. While we are in a deflationary period right now, a serious amount of inflation occurred between Cisco’s top in January 2000 and the present. According to the BLS Inflation Calculator, $81 in 2000 is $100 in current dollars.So Cisco would have to rise not to $81 to match its bubble-era valuation but to $100. The same is true for housing. Consider the possibility many see on the horizon, a period of high inflation caused by the insanely stupendous rise in paper money supply.I am not predicting such an inflation, just speculating on the effects it would have on bubble-era valuation calculations.Let’s say a house which sold for $100,000 in 1997 was valued at $400,000 at the housing bubble peak in 2006. I fully expect the property to retrace to its pre-bubble valuation, as that is the usual progression of bubbles and their demise.Now if inflation ramps up and ravages the value of the dollar, the price of a tangible good like a home might well rise more or less along with inflation, as people will be trying to turn their rapidly devaluing dollars into some tangible good as a means of preserving wealth.But if inflation is clipping along at 10% a year and the house returns to its bubble-era value of $400,000, does the $400,000 retain the same purchasing power as $400,000 in 2006? No.For an example of how this works, consider the stock market in the inflationary period of the 1970s:While the stock market went from 1,000 in 1966 to 1,000 in 1982 14 years later, inflation destroyed 2/3 the value of the dollar. According to the BLS, $1 in 1966 was worth 34 cents in 1982, meaning those who held stocks for those 14 years did not retain their wealth as the Dow Jones remained at 1,000–they lost 2/3 of their wealth.It is easy to foresee the same thing happening in housing should inflation ignite. Over the next 14 years, the house which sold for $400,000 in 2006 may well rise once again to that nominal price, but the inflation-adjusted value could well be closer to $100,000 when priced in 1997 dollars.This is why nominal prices in stocks, housing, bonds and gold are essentially meaningless. All assets have to be valued in terms of purchasing power, and as imperfect and flawed as any inflation/deflation gauge might be, it’s still a better guide to purchasing power than nominal price.3. Perhaps counter-intuitively, deflation also ravages bubble-era valuations. You might think that if inflation is tough on bubble-era valuations when priced in purchasing power (or some non-paper metric like gold), then deflation would be dandy. But deflation wipes out bubble-era valuations just as assiduously as inflation.In deflation, debt grows ever more burdensome as money becomes more valuable and wages and income drop. As a result, assets dependent on debt ( that is, real estate) drop in value. In deflation, real estate become a “capital trap” which loses value as cash gains in value. As incomes plummet, so do rents, i.e. the income stream which real estate earns, further impairing its value.Deflation often accompanies depression, and nothing is more of a capital trap than an empty house or building earning zero income. Compared to that, cash earning interest looks very attractive. This creates another drag on housing valuations.So whatever the future holds, deflation or inflation (or periods of one following the other), housing will never return to its bubble-era valuations when measured by purchasing power/adjusted for inflation.4. The fundamental driver of the housing bubble was once-in-a-lifetime low interest rates and loose/fraudulent lending.Bond yields (and thus interest rates) tend to move in generational cycles of about 20 years– occasionally as short as 17 years and as long as 27 years. The current decline in yields has now run 27 years which the historical maximum for such cycles, and thus we can safely predict that yields and interest rates will be rising for the next generation.Why would interest rates rise? Easy–the U.S. is borrowing trillions of dollars a year and once the rest of the world either runs out of cash or the desire to give us all their surplus capital then interest rates will rocket regardless of what the Fed or U.S. Treasury do. (Recall the analogy of the Financial Royalty standing knee-deep in a rising tide demanding the waters recede. Good luck with that, fellas.)As for loose/fraudulent lending–you know the story already. It isn’t coming back.So if the fundamental drivers of insanely low interest rates and insanely loose lending are not coming back, then precisely what forces will reinflate the housing bubble? The answer is: none.Demographics? As noted here many times, housing density (number of people per structure) has been falling for decades. As density rises, all future population growth can be easily accomodated with the existing housing stock.Speculative mania? That circus came to Housing Town and left, never to return in our lifetimes (if you’re three years old you may live to see another housing bubble in your dotage).Those counting on a reinflation of housing to bubblicious heights to fuel another manic bout of borrow-and-spend will be sorely disappointed. Housing is never coming back if we define “coming back” as a return to bubble-top 2006 valuation as measured in purchasing power.

http://fr.truveo.com/BILL-MOYERS-JOURNAL-William-K-Black-PBS/id/734116062excellent video

If all this would happen in France Washington(Paris) would burn.

Guest: Frankly, we are amazed too! It’s very surprising that something big isn’t burning in our country. But Americans are getting very angry. Very likely we are headed towards a political future in the US where people may much less attention to Washington DC, and where there is a higher level of anarchy in society. The politicians will start to feel like they are “losing control” of the country.PeteCA

But what else must happen to ignite a little protest?Every idiot even in America now can see that everything in the Goverment and industry is corrupt.How much taxpayers money must this “elite” stealing before somebody stand up and burn D.C?

at this rate there will be no tax money… Gov’t tax income is down 20% the past 6 months… If you are not working you are not paying tax. And if you are not buying (consuming) or producing, corporations are paying less tax too… The MODEL is broke now… Everyone seems to be fighting over a dwindling share of the pie…

Don’t know the answer, but free markets seem nothing more than an illusion used by insiders to screw outsiders.

new game planget housing right and everything will improve: what if this were impossible to accomplish?tons of homeowners are exiting their homesDr. Roubini’s recommendation to cut mortgages by 15% is totally insufficientsomeone paying a $1700 a month mortgage payment for a $200,000 home-even if his mortgage is cut down 15% to $1500 a month, so what?he exits to an $800 a month rentalso what’s left?get the stock market up, then, everything will shoot up

thank you for a well thought-out post!

Right, Pete. This is basically the fed end game. By fixing rates through bond purchases, the fed engages in the first part of the slippery slope of the ponzi scheme. Over time, low rates create huge gambles and inefficiencies, which will require ever increasing purchases of treasuries to maintain the target rates.There is no exit strategy whereby the fed can “mop up” the extra liquidity that it is creating. Quite the opposite, it will require exponentially more funding as time goes by.The end result is that at some point, there are too many dollars circulating. One or more major dollar holders will panic and sell dollars into gold, and the dollar collapse will occur. Hyperinflation materializes overnight, and the ponzi scheme collapses.–Brian

Nah, stock market touts like CNBC need to be enthusiastic about the market; otherwise, no one would play it.

Brian – thanks. And the last CI article was excellent as usual!Pete

here is the linkhttp://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/even-jack-bauer-couldnt-stop/story.aspx?guid=%7BBE0D1772%2DA628%2D454D%2D80BF%2DC4484CEBA7DF%7D&dist=msr_2

Won’t the high level of government borrowing crowd out all other debt and lead to a prolonged slump?

Agree and notice that there is no discussion of accountability and transparency by Wolf. Nobody will have confidence if these two are not given the primacy they deserve. It’s all smoke and mirrors.

@PeteCAFrom AboveYour point is well taken. Although my point is what us administration is saying openly is counterproductive. The local people in that part of the world think that statements coming out of us are a way of medling in thier own affairs. When secretary of state clinton says something and her stament is echoed by israely foriegn minister, who said that afghanistan pakistan situation is a bigger threat to israel than Iran is, than people connect the dots. There is already a overwhelming perception in that part of the world that us foreign policy is run by AIPAC(wrongly or rightly).So staements like this increase antiamericanism which as a result will strenthen taliban and will increase their public support. As far a swat and that area is concerned their is a long history of that. Let me give you some historical perspective. Pakistan gained independence from british in 1947. The swat wally was a mini state at the time. Evenhough that was included in pakistani teritorry but was semiautonomus and was ruled by their own waali(mini king)and was part of the fedrally administered tribal areas.(keep in mind that these tribal areas joined pakistan on a condition that pak govt will not meddle in their affairs). The swat vally had sharia law practiced in that vally for over two hundred years all the way uptil 1969. In 1969 swat people decided to become a formal part of pakistan on a condition that they will be allowed to keep on practicing sharia law instead of pakistani penal code system. But after few years pakistani law system was imposed on them. Intialy there was no resentment but as time passed the people became fed up with the pakistani justice system which could drag a case for years and years. People were used to quick and speedy justice system so than they said we are not happy with pakistani law and we want to go back to the sharia law. In 1990 a peaceful campaigne was started to demand sharia law from the govt.(Keep in mind by this time swat was a part of PATA not FATA. PATA= Provincialy administered tribal areas). In 1994 a securalar govt of benazir bhutto (current ruling party) signed a deal with the swat people to let them have sharia law. The deal didnt go well and again a deal was made in 1997 by another secular govt led by fmr prime minister nawaz sharif and shaia law was enacted in swat. In 1999 Musharaf overthrew nawaz sharif govt and came to power. He cancelled the deal and again and imposed pakistani law in swat. People in swat believed he did that on American pressure. That brings us to the present situation now Taliban ( a violent movement started by ignorant and illirette) are telling people that if you want to have a speedy and just system (Sharia Law) we will get it for you by armed strugle. They also claim that US and its allied govt in Islamabad is working agaisnt there interests. Since people are not educated they beleive their propaganda hence they protect them. That is not at all, the case in the educated and urban parts of pakistan. So when a US administration comes openly with these kind of statements its playing to the tune of Taliban hence increasing their support. As far as the perception in the west that Pak army is unnable to curb them is not true in my openion. Since Swat is a provincialy administered region the local provincial elected democratic secular govt wanted to sign a deal with taliban to bring peace in the region. army and the Fedral govt cannot enforce there will by force in a democratic system but i’m sure a time will come when people’s support will be there for the army to take a decissive action against taliban that is unless people in us govt act wisely and shed of the perception that they are palying in AIPAC hands. People in pakistan are fedup with the current justice system which they beleive is corupt and favors the rich and exploits the poor so i think US govt should pressure pak govt to have reforms in the justice system that will buy us goodwill. Also us is giving aid to pakistan which dont trickle down to ordinary people because of the corupt system.

Very good comments. Appreciated. I hope Hillary Clinton is reading your thoughts here.What do you think are the chances that people in Pakistan could significantly increase support for the MMA party, or other utlra-conservative religious parties?PeteCA

via ZHthis is actually a funny video”Treasury issues emergency recall of all US dollars”http://www.theonion.com/content/video/treasury_department_issues?utm_source=twittershare&utm_medium=twitter

“We should nuke our banking industry instead and start from scratch…”@ MM CA on 2009-04-23 12:14:04I assume that you were speaking figuratively and or loosely, however this is how evolution pans out and we must learn from our mistakes; no mistakes, no learning, no evolution; nothing.I doubt that personalities say like Ben Benanke are bad people; I would without question, expect that he is a good, nay, very good man; and perhaps limited in his experience of the full flower of life, by his somewhat protected life’s environment (unlike some of us that bear scars upon scars), his nurtured belief system is its academic edifice, his national ‘faith’ by ivy covered malls and leather bound chairs imported from Italy and walnut covered walls and furniture, etc. Has Mr Benanke had the time and the opportunity to question the foundation of “economics’, that is, his chosen field of endeavour? Would such an undertaking brought him to where he is today? And, if he had found fault or error in past beliefs, the soundness of thesis by tenured Professors, the potential and moral hazard’s of political amusements, sport and wealth-building, or the continuing knocks at his door by the influential captains of industry, et al., demanding that he delivery the demands of lobby for the self-interests of all abound, then Mr Benanke would probably have found himself in some remote rooms, teaching some dumb kids, everything that they didn’t want to learn.However, Mr Benanke, using the Chairman of the FedRes as an example and hero of my muse, is influential and has huge resources at his disposal and I appeal to his academic ethic of heart and request of him that in the event that he has any doubt at all about that in which he has placed himself in full-employment, now is the time for him, that is to say, every opportunity is ripe for him, to utilize his powers and leverage to the fullest, for the benefit of all mankind, humanity, civilization and screw the goddamn (sorry Mom;) slobs of society, en masse, and unleash his powers of wisdom and creativity to bring about a new age of the human spirit.Why not? The USA is screwed anyway… he has got nothing to lose… he will probably eventually become the whipping boy of various groups of ghouls and elite feral… it would make him feel good and could make him a respected person and it could give humanity the new impetus – the new fundamental foundation – the consilient moment – that vital impetus, that makes history er, from grasping the soul-of-man from the jaws of the abyss.No, we don’t need to nuke anything but we do need to use our courage, honour and abilities, to evolve in dignity, with values; real values; honest values.Ho hum

LIPSTICK ON THE IMMINENT BIG THREE BANRUPTCY PIG?I assume Gloomy’s story was pulled from a Detroit Press contact on Chrysler’s bankruptcy; Obama is contradicting it. See the proof:http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090423/ts_nm/us_chrysler_whitehouse;_ylt=AgvAc.IjD7m.5IjzzGUgnMNg.3QA;_ylu=X3oDMTJwN2dnY3U3BGFzc2V0A25tLzIwMDkwNDIzL3VzX2NocnlzbGVyX3doaXRlaG91c2UEY3BvcwMxBHBvcwMxBHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcmllcwRzbGsDdXNvZmZpY2lhbGRpAlbeit the “U.S. official” that contradicts Gloomy’s story is unknown and has no name. LOLIts like the frog [We the People] boiled in water, if we keep the heat [news] from boiling it too fast, we won’t notice that imminent economic death draws near and jump terrified from the pan. Stocks went up today on the low temperature boil news….LOL

Crap from Germany:Financial Times Germany Headline:US-Recession ends by years endThey are talkin about “Economic Instutions” which predicts this sh%$§t but dont tell us which.Maybe FT reporters are hallucinate.

Last week’s issue of Barron’s included an interview with William Black, who served as deputy director of the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corp. during the thrift crisis of the 1980s. That article included these clear-sighted comments on reality of the situation:“We already know from the real costs — through the cleanups of IndyMac, Bear Stearns, and Lehman — that the losses will be roughly 50 to 80 cents on the dollar. The last thing we need is a further drain on our resources and subsidies by promoting this toxic-asset market. By promoting this notion of too-big-to-fail, we are allowing a pernicious influence to remain in Washington. The truth has a resonance to it. The folks know they are being lied to.“With most of America’s biggest banks insolvent, you have, in essence, a multitrillion dollar cover-up by publicly traded entities, which amounts to felony securities fraud on a massive scale. These firms will ultimately have to be forced into receivership, the management and boards stripped of office, title, and compensation. Right now, things don’t look good. The government is reluctant to admit the depth of the problem, because to do so would force it to put some of America’s biggest financial institutions into receivership. The people running these banks are some of the most well-connected in Washington, with easy access to legislators. Prompt corrective action is what is needed, and mandated in the law. And that is precisely what isn’t happening. The savings-and-loan crisis showed that, too often, the regulators became too close to the industry, and run interference for friends by hiding the problems.“We have lost the ability to be blunt. Now we have a situation where Treasury Secretary Geithner can speak of a $2 trillion hole in the banking system, at the same time all the major banks report they are well-capitalized. And you have seen no regulatory action against what amounts to a $2 trillion accounting fraud. The reason we don’t see it — aren’t told about it — is that if they were honest, prompt corrective action would kick in, and they would have to deal with the problem banks.”

Pete, maybe you can fill us in on the President’s Working Group, better known as the PPT, Plunge Protection Team.The stock market is not a free market either.PPT seems to be run by Secy of the Treasury, and his staff, charged to keep an “orderly stock market”.Appears that they control the closing level of the Dow and or SP 500 by actions on the futures markets in the closing minutes. Most evident on days when Obama speaks on the economy, and the market jumps 100 points in the final minutes.

I am getting nervous these days of what I see happeneing, especially in light of What I told people, family and friends i know over three years ago that this was all going to happen. Everyone said i was wrong. From the real estate collapse, to the Credit card problems, to the bank problems, to the auto problems, to the fact Average americans were swimming in debt, to the fact I saw massive unemployment coming… And back then I knew 5% of what I know now. And what I know now or believe will happen going forward would scare the dickens out of most people and I even refrain these days talking about what I see to most now because it’s so bad… It sucks waking up every day and seeing soemthing else bad happen knowing i knew it would happen in advance… and for the most part not being able to do a thing about it.

i know what Tyler Durden (egoistic, machoistic, anarchist, genius character from Fight Club) would say to you,now youre free…or maybe, something about bald space monkeys…at the end of the movie, Tyler Durden blew up several banks HQs.. everything resetsimagine the chaos

Nah… information and knowledge lead to correct planning and decisions.. unlike others I have saved for this rainey day, while most continue to ignore the obvious… But i still have compassion for those around me i see suffereing or wondering what they will do… and that goes for msot good americans… violence in the end solves nothing…

You, and many others here, seem significantly more bearish than Professor Roubini. I’m plenty worried, and I don’t think I underestimate the worst case possibility, but it’s a little hard to take the “knowing” seriously… what reads like a confidence in some writings here about the extreme dismal prospects for the future.Having said that, I also want to say: MM CA, you’re one of the posters here I most like reading, and I usually agree with most of what you write. I just hope we’re wrong, and there are some little and not-so-little reverse black swans, or something, ahead.

You can’t call Barney Frank and tell him what to do……..but you can call the guy who ran a male prostitution ring from Barney’s basement. That might buy you some influence.

You gotta see the picture…. of him snoozing… Obama doesnt need this crap…lol – i cant stop laughing….http://www.businessinsider.com/larry-summers-falls-asleep-during-meeting-with-credit-card-execs-2009-4Larry Summers Snoozes Through Meeting With Credit Card ExecsJay Yarow|Apr. 23, 2009, 3:41 PM|9PrintTags: Economy, Politics, Credit CardsEither Larry Summers is overworked, or credit card executives are real boring.While they were convened to talk shop with the president and his cohorts, they manage to put the director of the National Economic Council to sleep.Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic: According to a pool report, Summers nodded off at the gathering of administration and credit card company officials, “doing the head on the hand and then head falling off the hand thing,” as observed by Keith Koffler, White House reporter for Roll Call.

Tom Hartman didn’t post. If you’re wanting to talk to him I think you need to try another site…Mark

Of course Bernanke is lying. You think a smart banker like Ken Lewis would take on a stinking Merrill Lynch (and don’t forget:before that he took on a stinking Countrywide) without assurances that B of A would be treated as too big to fail by Bernanke?Gimme a break. Plenty of people watching the market knew this instinctively when Bernanke and Lewis met before the Countrywide deal.But ask yourself this: isn’t the real reason why Bernanke is still denying it (even though Paulson can’t because he got under oath,and probably no longer cares because he’s out of the line of fire) is…….BECAUSE THE WHOLE SCHEME IS NOT WORKING.People on this blog ought to start getting their heads around what they’re going to do when all these central banking machinationscome crashing down around their Federal Reserve Notes.

Fritz – I’ll post some thoughts on the PPT tomorrow.Busy tonight, but I’ll get back to you.PeteCA

I’ll cast my vote that you’re an operative of the GOP. I’m really tiring of political blovating.Mark

wow!!again wow,China sees EU as mere pawnexcerpt:-Vladimir Lenin, founder of the Soviet Union, once said that “the capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them”. These days, it is China selling the rope and a disunited Europe that is in danger of hanging.WOW!!Trade barrier, import tariffs Here We Come…http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bece5f40-2f5a-11de-a8f6-00144feabdc0%2Cs01%3D1.html?nclick_check=1Global Insight: China sees EU as mere pawnBy Tony Barber in BrusselsPublished: April 22 2009 17:40 | Last updated: April 22 2009 19:49Viewed from Brussels, China’s importance to the world’s security and economic systems has never been greater. Viewed from Beijing, the European Union’s importance has rarely been smaller.This imbalance will be on display in Prague on May 20, when EU and Chinese leaders get together for a summit. The meeting should have been held last December, but in an imperious gesture the Chinese cancelled it after Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s president, showed “disrespect” by arranging talks with the Dalai Lama, Tibet’s exiled spiritual leader.For the Europeans, it is something of a relief that the Chinese plan to show up in Prague. For the Chinese, it is something of an irrelevance that the summit is happening at all.China once seemed to take the EU as an institution more seriously, largely because of its apparent potential as a counter-balance to US global hegemony.But the world financial turmoil and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have dealt a staggering blow to the US image as an unchallenged colossus striding the world.

And to THAT I totally agree!It was built on a non-productive model that requires massive growth (consumption of resources). D-O-O-M-E-D!Mark

Not only that….money can’t but you love.C’mon, MM CA, Is it all about money?Where’s your spiritual life?

I’d love to hear from London Banker what his thoughts are. Also would like to hear what he now has to say after once proclaiming that Britain’s strategy was a lot more sound. I’m not saying this to ridicule, but to try and understand what went wrong in his analysis, which I thought was sound.Mark

“Just listen to me and send in all the money” LOL!But that’s basically what’s happening!Mark

And given enough rope…Mark

“Bearish, bullish… no such thing…”That’s silly.”marked by, tending to cause, or fearful of falling prices (as in a stock market) b: pessimistic”http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bearish

What about health care and college tuition?

@ Blindman and Markblindman, I take your point and of course you are correct but only to a point.humans differ according to function where some can do some things well and other things are beyond their scope while others, well, you get the point…and while5% of the population are capable and ept across the broad spectrum… so, my point is that we as a global society must recognize our attributes and skills and build upon the acknowledgment of these facts. We are one species…”leadership”, that is real “leadership” should recognize this (it’s in all the damned books (Sorry Mom:) and build social organization (and structure) accordingly; to our strengths as well as to our our weaknesses.Sometimes I think we need an aggressive race of aliens to attack Earth to make us grow up! Sigh.We can’t (don’t need to) make criminals out of ourselves – we just need to indulge in some scientific realities.Those “paladins” – on our side – are our strengths…I apologize if I don’t articulate my point clearly.Ho hum

helpcan anyone tell me how i can display the whole page on screen so i dont have to scroll left and right? Thank You

137 people, if im right its already an epidemic…http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2009/04/23/respiratory-illness-flu-mexico.htmlTravel advisory warns of severe respiratory illness in Mexico20 die from severe respiratory illness in MexicoCanadians who have recently returned from Mexico should be on alert for flu-like symptoms that could be connected to a severe respiratory illness, federal health officials said Thursday in issuing a travel advisory.A severe respiratory illness appears to have infected 137 people in south and central areas of Mexico, with cases concentrated in Mexico City and three other areas, including 20 deaths, the Public Health Agency of Canada said.In the United States, health officials in Texas and California were scrambling this week to deal with a new strain of swine flu, which has been diagnosed in seven people.The states share a border with Mexico not far from a town where two deaths were reported.The U.S. cases are unusual, because it appears none of the patients had contact with pigs, and the virus is one that health officials have never seen before.

where do you live?? Here where I live clothing has gone up, food prices up, furniture-up.Dining out hasn’t gotten cheaper either, though there are some cheaper menu items, that difference is made up elsewhere on the menu. Salon services are up here too. Not to mention property taxes and sales tax is up as well, everything is up except maybe housing which has stayed level here and is only now coming down slightly, and cars. I don’t see much in regards to deflation on things I spend my money on.

Yep! And the market rally continues. Any idea when the institutional buyers will turn off the lights and reverse course?

I would say he is not far off… The risks still exist at these institutions that played in all the risky loans over the past 10 years. The accounting they ahve used are nothing but accounting tricks to show all these bogus porfits or lack of loss. form my understanding these are all one time gimmicks also, so msot of them sghould get exposed in the next quarter. its what i have been saying for a long time, everyone lives day to day hoping to fight and survive another day…. too many econimists are syaing the same basic things for the risk exposures not to be true, even the IMF has said so this past week….

Speaking of Martin Wolf — this yesterday… FT.comA chancellor flying on a wing and a prayer by Martin WolfApril 22, 2009 –Only Alistair Darling, most emollient of politicians, could manage to make this Budget boring.He is telling his country that its prosperity was as fraudulent as a collateralised debt obligation, that Gordon Brown’s boastsof “no more Tory boom and bust” are a joke, that the forecasts he gave only last November were nonsense, that the public financesare deteriorating at a rate never seen in peacetime and that, to cover these failures, he is indulging in populist attacks on thehighly paid. To make this feel boring is an achievement.Yet is the government at last being realistic about the scale of this disaster? Can Labour hope to get away with it, economically or politically?Does it deserve to do so? These are the questions for markets and analysts now, and for voters at some point in the next 12 months.My answers are, briefly: No, No and NoIn terms of the overall picture, the salient figures were already well known: instead of an economic contraction of 1 per cent this year forecastin the pre-Budget report, the Treasury now forecasts a decline of 3.5 per cent; instead of public sector net borrowing of 8 per cent of grossdomestic product this financial year and 6.8 per cent next year, falling to 2.9 per cent in 2013-14, we now have 12.4 per cent this year,followed by 11.9 per cent next year and 5.5 per cent in 2013-14; and instead of net debt at 57 per cent of GDP in 2013-14, we now have net debtat 79 per cent.This is a horror story. But it could, of course, be worse: the economy may not recover as hoped; losses on support for the banks could, as theInternational Monetary Fund suggests, be far bigger than the 3.5 per cent of GDP now expected; and, above all, the creditworthiness of the Britishgovernment could come into question, with devastating consequences. The government is flying on a wing and a prayer. Can it – or its successor – landthe aircraft? As a British citizen, I do hope so. But nobody can now be sure of this. Can a government that made large claims for the quality of itsstewardship survive such a debacle?Perhaps the most striking single figure in the Budget is that the Treasury now believes cyclically adjusted net borrowing will be 9.8 per cent of grossdomestic product this financial year (see chart). In other words, virtually all of the overall net borrowing requirement of 12.4 per cent of GDP is structural.The Treasury’s implicit view is that this is a sudden and unexpected event, consequent on the collapse of corporate profitability, particularly in thefinancial sector, and of the housing market: it shows the structural net borrowing requirement at only 2.7 per cent in 2007-08 and 5.7 per cent in2008-09. But this view is highly implausible. More realistic is that, as happened in the boom of the late 1980s, but on a bigger scale, the Treasuryconfused a super-boom with a sustainable economic position. Now, after the collapse, the Treasury admits that the structural fiscal position is farworse than it thought. If it – and, we must admit, many others – had realised how fragile the economic and fiscal position was, they would haverecognised that deficits and net public debt were far too high.So the big question is how – and how quickly – the Treasury expects this appalling structural position to improve. The answer is: very slowly.By 2013-14, structural net borrowing is still expected to be 4.5 per cent of GDP and the structural current budget (supposed to be in balance “overthe cycle” under now discarded fiscal rules) will still run a deficit of 3.2 per cent of GDP. In this Budget, the cyclically adjusted current budgetreturns to balance only in 2017-18, instead of 2015-16, the date chosen in the November pre-Budget report.Yet any notion of the structural as opposed to the cyclical position is heroic guesswork. It may be sensible, therefore, to ignore the distinctionand focus on the plausibility of actual numbers. In essence, the Budget forecasts that, as a result of the collapse in GDP and the recession,particularly the huge rise in spending on benefits, total spending will peak at 48.1 per cent of GDP next year, but then fall to 39 per cent by 2017-18.Meanwhile, receipts make a modest recovery, from a crisis-hit 35.1 per cent of GDP this financial year and 36.2 per cent next year,to 38 per cent in 2013-14 and, presumably, thereafter.Behind this forecast is a promise and a hope: the promise is that real public spending will remain roughly constant between 2010-11 and 2013-14 andthen rise at only about 0.5 per cent a year over the rest of that parliament and, implicitly, well into the next; the hope is that the economy willrecover vigorously, with GDP already growing at 3.5 per cent in 2011, after 1.25 per cent next year. These are not impossible forecasts. But theyimply a resolution that can hardly be expected of any UK elected government, a vigour that can no longer be assumed of the storm-tossed Britisheconomy and an amount of luck, on the world economy and losses in the raddled banking system, that cannot be taken for granted. The horrible truthis that the government’s forecasts are still very far from the worst imaginable.I have no idea whether the government can both get away with this optimism and postpone the moment of truth at least until after the general election.Markets have been forgiving. The difficulty with assuming that this will continue is that this is how markets tend to behave – until they cease to do so.Should investors decide that a return to fiscal stability has become a remote prospect, they may turn against the UK suddenly and brutally. The populismof the Budget, with its fiscally futile attack on relatively high earners, makes this even more likely.Finally, does the government deserve to get away with it? It is true that this is a global crisis in which many economies have been as hard hit as the UK.But, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, no other big member has suffered as large a deterioration in itsstructural fiscal position as the UK. In retrospect, the government was far too optimistic about the structural solidity of the UK economy and itsfinances. While many others were equally blind, it is hard for a government to escape responsibility for so huge a mistake.I have sympathy for the decision not to tighten fiscal policy during the worst of a recession. But I would also want to see determination to takethe measures needed to return the fiscal position to health by the end of the next parliament. This will require action on both revenue and spending.Understandably, perhaps, the chancellor failed to spell out the scale of the challenges that lie ahead even if the economy were to recover robustly.Yet what is in prospect is year after miserable year of austerity.The challenge for both government and the opposition is to show how they will bring the budget back under control. Neither side is being honest aboutwhat this means. If this failure leads to a collapse of confidence, that will prove the worst mistake of all.http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/28796910-2f3f-11de-b52f-00144feabdc0.html

What do you mean by getting housing right?The right price in a free market is when an able willing buyer and a willing seller come to terms. This means that the buyer can afford the home.. As real incomes of real working people stagnate or drop, the resulting average of what a willing buyer can afford also drops… What we are looking for is equilibrium. This is done with an open auction on houses. If there aren’t buyers able and or willing at the higher price, the price keeps coming down until there is one.Tell me HOW does the government step in and get this right? This is a process of supply and demand. All the government can do is get in the way…. Which is what happened when the government came in and pushed for higher home ownership and then looked the other way when banks used predatory lending, securitized the loans, allowed the rating agencies to lie, allowed the insurance companies to insure them with no set asides for losses and allowed all this toxic waste they allowed to be created to be sold on to your pension fund.NOW HOW does this get right outside of the normal process of default, foreclosure and resale at lower prices?

More Problems Coming For BanksThis article from Europe is interesting …More Problems Headed For BanksIt confirms some of the suspicions being posted by Martin Weiss and Mike Larson at Money & Markets.PeteCA

pjb,if any one articulates anything it is you. ok ..and others…..as a matter of course i would agree with yourconclusions as i know and therefore trust the source(author). even when i cannot follow due topersonal limitations etc..we need them and they need us but many peoplein both camps forget this or don’t know it andthen people start slaughtering one anotheror themselves.the “individual” is essential to my understandingalso, i think that’s obvious but that “individual”needs to be integrated with humanity, the ecology,the earth and beyond. if not we get the frankensteinmonsters of all the varieties, making big and longlasting messes both physical and psychic.ps. i have a habit of divergence which includesarguing, even with the author, even wheni fear i’m dead wrong. somebody has to do it ..but nature produces variety and spectrum of qualitya priori. no? we would be fools not to recognize thisand employ these resources judiciously. then again,we are fools! call the aliens!peas.and this reminds me of…..As a young man in 1728, Franklin had composed his own mock epitaph which read:The Body ofB. FranklinPrinter;Like the Cover of an old Book,Its Contents torn out,And stript of its Lettering and Gilding,Lies here, Food for Worms.But the Work shall not be wholly lost:For it will, as he believ’d, appear once more,In a new & more perfect Edition,Corrected and AmendedBy the Author.He was born on January 6, 1706.Died 17…..His gravestone would simply read:BENJAMINAndDEBORAH FRANKLIN1790America mourned. France mourned. ” Would it not become us, gentlemen, to join in this religious act, to bear a part in this homage, rendered, in the face of the world, both to the rights of man and to the philosopher who has most contributed to extend their sway over the whole earth? Antiquity would have raised altars to this mighty genius, who, to the advantage of mankind, compassing in his mind the heavens and the earth, was able to restrain alike thunderbolts and tyrants. Europe, enlightened and free, owes at lest a token of remembrance and regret to one of the greatest men who have ever been engaged in the service of philosophy and liberty. I propose that it be decreed that the National Assembly, during three days shall wear mourning for Benjamin Franklin.Today thousands of tourists annually still come to pay their respect to Benjamin Franklin. His grave is visible through an iron gate at the southeast corner of 5th and Arch Streets. Pennies dot his tombstone, as a local tradition claims that such a practice will bring the penny-tosser luck.One must wonder what the author of Poor Richard’s Almanack might think of such a practice though. On the one hand, a man famous for the line, “A penny saved, is a penny earned,” would not like throwing money away; on the other hand surely Franklin would recognize, it is only “common cents” that we would look to him for inspiration.

what’s up with the stress test?

who cares?

why dont say something?

who is it?

Philadelphia. I can tell you for sure clothes have gotten cheaper–I just went shopping. The overpriced salon where I get my hair styled gave out $20 gift cards for their services. I was looking at cars for a few months, but stopped because it’s so annoying. Auto prices are definitely falling, whether it’s via the price paid or incentives. I have a friend who lives outside of LA. An upscale wine bar/restaurant near him has $20 dinner specials during the week (previously unheard of for this restaurant) and still can’t fill tables. Granted, not everything has gone down. Health care is not cheaper and real estate taxes are still rising.

7 weeks up – 7 weeks down on deck!

Is the Black Swan Really a BLACK PIG?Severe Respiratory Illness in MexicoLet’s hope this new strain is not too deadly – it seems to spread without having any contact with pigs.

A pandemic virus basically means a virus that is going to affect a large proportion of the population. It doesn’t mean they’re going to get necessarily all that sick.

This incident shows how thin the tread is by which our world hangs together. It could all come crashing down overnight.Further,

A severe respiratory illness appears to have infected 137 people in south and central areas of Mexico…

137 is the Fine Structure Constant – something that came up in a post I made recently about the new book that was out titled Deciphering The Cosmic Number – regarding the collorbation between Wolfgang Pauli (Nobel Prize 1953) and Carl Jung. This constant, 137, is psychologically connected to death, to the place where the ancestors go in the Beyond.Ho hum

From Earlier … “Pete,Always good posts. My question to you is this: when the Ponzi Federal Reserve Note collapses (when Americans lose faith in Bernanke’s Fed)what will America’s money become? Roosevelt outlawed the ownership of gold for US citizens–the ban lasted ’til 1972–I’m sure Obama willdo that if Bernanke’s Fed can’t reblow up Barney Frank’s bubble. How about rare coins? Guns? Ammunition? Cocaine? Heroin?”—–I appreciate the comment and the humor.At least, I hope some of the suggestions were humor. Let’s look at a few options.First, there’s too much paranoia about the Gov’t taking back gold right now. Ben Bernanke is fighting debts worth trillions of dollars. He definitely does not need to go back onto the gold standard. I’d venture to guess that that particular option is at the bottom of his list right now. If and when things ever get to the point that the Gov’t seriously thinks about re-accumulating gold, our economy is going to be fairly shot to pieces. We’re not there yet. If the Gov’t does want to take back gold, please remember that they have to PAY for it. They cannot just seize peoples’ belongings, unless they want to get a reputation to be the “new Nazi’s”. No matter how bad things are. I doubt the President would consider that. And if he ever did, the country would already be in a revolution or a civil war anyway. So realistically, the only big deal about the Gov’t buying back gold is what PRICE are they willing to pay. That issue actually would be a very big deal, because a lot of precious metals folks tend to believe that the gold price is manipulated. So gold owners are unlikely to sell back their holdings until they have good reassurance that the Gov’t has a complete “hands off” position with gold prices. This can be verified – if the big banks remove all their futures positions on gold, that would be a credible step to giving people assurance that gold is trading freely. At that point, if people want to sell their holdings – that’s their decision. I doubt that any Gov’t order to compel people to sell gold at a specified price would have any chance of success. Likewise, although rumors float around about the Gov’t seizing the assets of a gold ETF, but this is still stealing peoples’ property. It would still run the risk of starting a major breakdown in social order. Therefore, in the short term I don’t personally think we’re at “panic stations” as far as unusual Gov’t moves on gold are concerned. The practical limitation on gold is its price – a 1-oz coin is currently around $900-$1,000. You could get mugged if you carried a few of these things around – or even just one. For that reason, silver coins are actually more practical as an alternative currency. That’s why silver is called the “poor man’s gold”. Still, at this stage not many stores in the USA would know how to deal with you … if you gave them a silver coin (that might change fast if our currency starts devaluing in a major way!).More practical approaches are for you to hold some hard assets – or to barter services. Think about some practical stuff that tends to hold its value, and is useful to people on a daily basis. It could be tools, heating oil, appliances, or car parts. Or it could be stuff that people tend to want and consume … booze, cigarettes, or even some kinds of medicines. As things get tighter in our society, you could very well see people dealing in these kinds of items. Give it some thought and see if you can think of stuff that people in your area tend to really need on a daily (or weekly) basis.You can also barter services, and it’s very likely more people will be doing this. Practical skills like fixing TV’s, appliances, and cars are going to be in a lot more demand. As our standard of living goes down, people are not going to be going out and buying new stuff. So they’ve got to keep their old stuff working.Here’s a great idea that you should consider. It looks like Ford, GM and Chrysler are on the ropes. Well guess what – there are a lot of old American cars out there on the roads. And people will need to keep them running. So who’s going to fix them, and who’s going to make spare parts? There are some pretty darn good opportunities as Detroit goes out of business.As for guns … yeah a lot of people are scared. To some extent, I’ve got no beef if families want to stay safe. But a gun isn’t going to put food on your table every day. At least, not for most people (although the deer herds in this country should maybe consider taking an extended holiday overseas). You can stop people robbing you – if you own a gun … which is good. But are Americans going to take their guns and start hijacking other people’s food and water? I sure hope not – at least not in large numbers. This isn’t exactly a “Mad Max” movie. So some sensible alternatives are to either buy a home where you’ve got some land (so you can grow vege’s and have a few chickens), or to start keeping your pantry filled with some practical items that can stretch the food budget. Just simple stuff like plenty of water, boxes of pasta, rice, beans etc. Food costs are bound to increase seriously in the next decade – so this stuff will never be wasted. One thing to be careful with about guns … it’s really a weakness of guys. Guys have this tendency when things really “cave in” to take a gun and blow their brains out. It’s really not a good option. But let’s be realistic – there’s a lot of men who are under tremendous financial pressure right now. So if you keep a gun in your house, you might want to think seriously about putting some kind of reminder with it that’s helps you to “get back to earth”. Like maybe sitting a Bible beside it, or a photo of your family, or a picture of something you really like to do. Anything to remind yourself that there are always other alternatives out there. It’s also worth remembering that any time your are down at the shooting range, never fire your gun when you are angry, depressed, or just generally pissed off about life. If you do that – you are training yourself to fire a weapon during times of high emotions. Not good. Only fire the gun when you are calm and rational – hopefully that also teaches you to think before you pull the trigger in a situation with real danger. That might just save your life, or the life of a family member.America is bound to go through a period of bad inflation. It’s coming some time in our future. It could simply be double-digit inflation, or it could be genuine hyperinflation. I hope not the latter, because that would be financial hell. It’s not impossible, though. But even if we get into “stagflation on steriods” in our economy, double-digit inflation is a pretty bad experience. It means that the prices of everything will be going up just about every time you go to the grocery store. It throws families into poverty. I don’t think we’re going to avoid this in our future, and it could go on for years. So that’s why it will be good to barter useful things that people need, and to trade services.Just the same though. No matter what happens, each day when we go out the front door of our house – America is still going to be there. Our country has been through every kind of imgainable hard time before. If our parents, grandparents and distant relatives made it – then we sure should be able to cope somehow. We may have to change some of our attitudes … but that might not be the worst thing in the world anyway.PeteCA

p,some valuable insight here! thanks.

if stocks go up,for example:retirees will start buying homes to retire to while the homes are at only 30% or less of their peak prices in states like Florida, Arizona, etc….and before inflation hits everything like a sudden tsunamipeople move in herds, and will suddenly swerve in a split second to buying-higher prices-more buying spiral upward all over again – within an amazingly very fast time frameand the stock market will skyrocket once this re-migration begins

Okay. Let’s assume that Paulson did make the threat. So what? What value does that have now, at this juncture. If Lewis had had any balz, he would have called Pauslon’s bluff in real time (back then), and at the moment the truth would have come out and we’d all be better off for it now.But because all of these executives in govt, finance, banking/brokerage, quasi-govt. entities are cowards of the first order, they are still telling lies to themselves and (apparently) still succeeding at pulling the wool over the eyes of the public.

My thanks too, Pete. Guess I’ll take this opportunity to say: When I don’t have much time to read much of the blog postings here, I search for your posts and only read them.

I copy and paste on a Word doc where it fits nicely for reading.

@ PeteCA”We’re not there yet. If the Gov’t does want to take back gold, please remember that they have to PAY for it.”With respect:What “America” doesn’t understand is simply that it has lost its Prime position in this World due to its now exposed lack on integrity, which, has now been, and is continuing to be, held up in an almost fully transparent manner, despite the obvious attempts to throw the rug over all these affairs, for even the most despicable creature in a lost forsaken hole in the bottomless pit in nowhere land to see and to fully comprehend. America has become a “black hole” of its former self; sadly to say, but nevertheless true. Peoples fear the USA whereas before, peoples embraced and longed for the USA and what it represented.”America” has done this to itself and its attempts to project blame onto ethnic and religious grouping throughout the “developing” World so as, in reality, to support its key “Lobby” and all their electoral donations, is to embrace the state of “denial” as the new National religion of the USA.The shifting of focus to the “Global Economic Crisis”, like “terrorism” – that game that the whole of global “leadership” is playing in panic and desperation – is really far beneath the level of that which we had expected from the USA and the “leadership” bull is being seen (sadly) as being led around by the nose as in an agricultural showing. Those holding the rope of “leadership” is any group with some money and an intensity of interests. Control freeks, in other words.In Universal physics, it is clear that in order to control, one must lose control as for one to be armed, one needs only to develop the Mind. Man was not born naked in error. The facts upon which we build our beliefs need to be anchored and the belief system of the USA floated off its anchorages many years ago and in being held captive in some weird and insane pyrates port.”Leadership” in the USA should be ashamed, as should the American people who elected and continue to support these (mostly) parasites, betrayers and treacherous feral, so here lies the foundation of my following thesis.Upon finding some element of “leadership”, again, within the American shores, all the USA need do, is to ‘show’ that it will, has, intends to, desires, a priori, return to integrity of office, integrity of Nation, principles of freedom and most importantly, a full return to its Constitution and Bill of Rights; or, IOW, its origination roots. Upon the World seeing, and there would (as any principle in physics) initially be resistance (disbelief), that the current rotten and wholly corrupted state of affairs, across the board, would be discarded, stacked and burnt out of existence, the USA would again lead the World as the bastion of freedom and the light of liberty; not to mention the largest economic engine, ever, known to man.The USA has the largest reserves of Gold in the World, and if, “if”, it wanted to establish a Gold Standard, it easily could; its just a matter of will in integrity – and “leadership”.Or, “if”, the USA wanted to and desired to rebuild its National fabric on a foundation of strength through integrity and freedom, it could so the question begs… does it want to?I think not!and… misery loves company… (read into this what you want, because ignorance is a downward force commonly known as the “dark side”, and the “dark side” pays not!Ho hum

Quote of the week(?):[Fed’s White Paper Leaves Questions Unanswered, Analysts Say]“The anticipation over the white paper appears to be much ado about nothing,” said Josh Rosner, an analyst at independent research firm Graham Fisher & Co. in New York. “The most significant numbers provided by the Fed in the paper appear to be the page numbers.”Mark

Yeah, it’s getting better…Rats Feed Off U.K. Recession as Trash Mounts, Buildings EmptyAnd as public health programs get cut.Mark

Great additional thoughts, Mark. Thanks much.

Yet, another golden thread:”When it comes to trading, it’s frequently a mistake to look for reasons, because they are often not known until it’s far too late. In this case, there is no doubt we are in a period of extreme credit stress. Moreover, nearly every country on the planet is attempting to debase their currency simultaneously.”http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/04/gold-continues-to-act-well.htmlFor emphasis (mine): *** “Moreover, nearly every country on the planet is attempting to debase their currency simultaneously.”***Ho hum

Sir, I think especially brilliant this paragraph:”America” has done this to itself and its attempts to project blame onto ethnic and religious grouping throughout the “developing” World so as, in reality, to support its key “Lobby” and all their electoral donations, is to embrace the state of “denial” as the new National religion of the USA.”Many talk about a possible return to the Gold Standard in this forum.Sir, might you take some space to explain how a return to the Gold Std in the US would be viable or even possible at this juncture, from both US-Domestic and Global perspectives. Would the USD be the only (major) fiat currency to back itself with Gold in order for the scheme to succeed in the most utilitarian definition of success?Thank you in advance for your subsequent insight.

I believe that my post has already answered your question. Consider:1. The facts upon which we build our beliefs need to be anchored…2. The USA has the largest reserves of Gold in the World…3. … desired to rebuild its National fabric on a foundation of strength through integrity and freedom4. … a full return to its Constitution and Bill of RightsThe current World financial system is founded in the anglo-dutch mercantile approach which grew out of the Greek (that had to be saved twice by the Egyptians) and later Venetian “desk (banco)” systems which permits, in actual effect, currencies to be manipulated by extraneous forces. But, on the establishment of the USA Constitution, the USA went alone with a gold based system where the production of currency was vested in the Congress. Later, much later, and in grave secrecy, the Federal Reserve was quietly ushered in which adopted the anglo-dutch system of central banking, fractional reserve manipulation schema through the promises of political one-stop-ATM-vending_machine-convenience-for-Party “leadership” schema – vested in the private and secret, non-accountable FedRes, owned privately by a few major international banker oriented families…So, the unique US system was destroyed albeit from within and Nixon then was convinced to drop the Gold Standard and Larry Summers convinced Clinton to repeal the Glass Steagull Act. A fait accompli and as they say, the rest is contemporary history. Summers is also responsible for the US export of pollution on developing economies; a lovely guy, I’m sure.Economic is borne out of opinion – like morality and fashion, such opine is usually fleeting and meaningless apart from the damage it brings and leaves in its wake, so a floating fiat currency ie. non-gold based, is not anchored per se, it is however perceived to be valued or tied to the integrity and balance of trade of the issuing Nation, in this case, the USA. At present, Phhhlllaaattt!The USA could re-introduce the Gold standard to the USA without any problems except for self-interests of large groups that breathe Lobby so it would take a strong leader to break with what is being directed by Wall Street and beyond and he would have to be conversant with those skills for which leaders are supposed to posses (but never do)and of course, in the USA that would immediately be many assassinations er, suicides of the murderous nature. Not an easy route.But a Gold Standard would bring stability domestically which appears to me to be vitally important and as soon as the USA had adopted a Gold Standard, most of the rest of the World would follow like puppies following a bouncing ball; no doubt. I say this, as there are many countries that have sold their gold reserves at the direction oft those morons at IMF and World Bank and BIS, like Australia for example, which “leadership” was so eager to do anything to be invited to Bush’s Crawford Ranchero, and eat the words of another moron, etc., (I digress) so they would have no choice at all and a USA that suddenly finds itself and openly starts to eradicate the vermin feeding within its own parking lots and own empty restaurant; rats, etc., is a powerful enemy and more powerful ally where anything is possible. However, that state of a Nation does not exist today, except in potential.The Constitutional Republic of the United States of American that returns to the originating roots of its own Constitution and Bill of Rights, is the nation to be most respected and feared by every petty tyrant and imperialist government throughout this World. It would be the Global Leader, as it once was.The Gold Standard brings anchored stability exactly as, analogically, integrity brings anchored strength.It is merely a matter of “leadership” and not a Gold Standard, per se.Ho hum

Morbid has referenced above something called SwineFlu -friends we have a problem and I encourage you to visit the following links – it looks like we have a pandemic in the making.Swine Flu Found in Mexican OutbreakIllness Raises Alarm Among U.S. OfficialsBy Rob Stein and David BrownWashington Post Staff WritersSaturday, April 25, 2009http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/24/AR2009042404075.htmlMexico Races to Stop Deadly Flu Virushttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB124058255179552887.htmlConcerns of a Swine Flu Pandemic Growhttp://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Avian-Flu-Talk-979582.htmlDeadly new flu strain erupts in Mexico, U.S.http://in.reuters.com/article/health/idINTRE53N22820090425Swine flu could infect U.S. trade and travelhttp://in.reuters.com/article/health/idINTRE53N22820090425Mexico swine flu deaths spur global epidemic fearsBy MARK STEVENSON Associated Press Writer © 2009 The Associated Presshttp://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/top/world/6391440.html

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-04/25/content_7715919.htmHu [Xiaolian, State Administration of Foreign Exchange] said also revealed [on Friday] that China had boosted its gold reserves by 76 percent since 2003, making it the fifth largest holder of gold.Beijing now has 1,054 tons of gold in its reserves, 454 tons more than it did in 2003…….Commenting on China’s foreign exchange reserve portfolio, David Jiang, Asia-Pacific CEO of BNY Mellon Asset Management, said China should diversify its investment and move from US treasury bonds to inflation-proof notes and other assets.”The economic recession may cause the depreciation of many currencies, especially the US dollar, and trigger a new round of inflation once the economy starts to recover”.Fan Haibo, analyst of China Cinda Securities, said the central bank could increase its gold reserve considering the depreciation risk of some foreign currencies.”It is necessary to boost the proportion of gold holdings because China has only 2.28 percent of the global reserves and the United States has 31 percent.

Location of the outbreakhttp://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&t=p&msa=0&msid=106484775090296685271.0004681a37b713f6b5950&ll=32.639375,-110.390625&spn=15.738151,25.488281&z=5

Mark – your suggestion on kindness is a very good one. Our family does support the needy in our community. There is a concern that as many Americans purchase guns, some may not have proper training or a good plan for home defense. A weapon requires professional training, and the overall protection plan is important. I’ve never had any conflicts with anyone … and hope I never do. Best wishes to you.PeteCA

and one of my favorite links (namesake of Morbid) the MMWRhttp://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm58d0421a1.htm

signing off:last linkSwine Flu Behavior “Potentially Scarier Than the Outbreak of Avian Flu”http://blogs.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2009/04/swine-flu-behav.html

I doubt the actual # was 137 – the gov is always using it for propaganda

The whole swine flu thing is hype. Get over it. This nitwittery will be forgotten in the next news cycle.

How can there be any gains when no one is working to produce wealth?

Semi-clever, Mark. How about if I define wealth any way I want to and offer you this wooden nickel for your Mini Cooper?You skipped answering my request for your opinion in preference to my defining wealth for you, so……..try this:Wealth is being able to shoot your age in 18 holes of golf!!!!!

some vials were reported missing a week or so ago from fort hood or wherever these people keep this junk.my guess is that this “strain” is so “exotic” and unprecedented in the “annals of virology” what is bird swine whatever human to human, etc etc something quite unordinary – albeit that I am NOT A VIROLOGIST – google – science daily – may provide some interesting findings.We are heavily militarily involved in Mexico – which is close to collaspe (like Pakistan)- canterall – Plan Mexico – I would not put anything past these sociopaths

“Do you take your brain out and dribble it down the sidewalk before you write your posts, PeterJB?Seriously, try to organize your thoughts a little better before you set your fingers to the keyboard.Half us numbskulls who read your posts have no way of deciphering what the hell you mean.”@ Chignos on 2009-04-25 00:03:45Apologies and ughammns, but, of course, why not try it?Then: try this. If at first you don’t succeed, give up and watch some TV.The basic reason behind the USA and the rest of the World returning to Gold and/or Precious metals based currency systems is that there is no integrity remaining in any (read: any) political / National / export balance of accounts of any country left anywhere in the World today, especially the USA.The only other reason to remain on a virtual aether based fiat currency (paper) (read: toilet) system is for political convenience of currency value manipulation, du jour – which always leads to market distortion and failure (read: your history).Ho hum

Welcome to the brave new world: The USA inaugurates a new economic concept, the first immerging country (closely followed by the UK, but alas the UK lack natural ressources to export, whereas if things go on this way the US is set to become a major exporter of petroleum and soft commodities)

I believe the official revelation of China’s gold purchase was made at this timeto show the Chinese people that the Government has been investing into not onlyUS dollar assets but into gold which the Chinese revere…in short, to build confidence in the Government and in the ability of theGovernment to lead them out of this sudden traumatic loss of export trade

does this mean if im a pig you cant hang with me ?

The plot thickens as its becomes momentarily clearly before it fades into the convenience of obscurity; members only:”Although the average person has never heard of it, MERS — short for Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems — holds 60 million mortgages on American homes, through a legal maneuver that has saved banks more than $1 billion over the last decade but made life maddeningly difficult for some troubled homeowners.”http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/24/business/24mers.html?_r=3&pagewanted=1&ref=todayspaperIndeed, an innovative tactic to conceal.Ho hum

I repeat this recent post from above as it also belongs to this discussion.s2007,Exactly how many people on the planet have the symbolic knowledge about the deeper meaning of 137?And how many of those people are a part of this forum?And what are the odds that I should have inquired of PeterJB if he was interested in reading this new book about this number without prior knowledge of this “days later” news event?This is not about the rational connection of dots – this is about the irrational workings of Nature – something our one-sided rational world has lost track of.

Thanks for the link, Hayes. Very interesting.Folks who immediately dismiss concerns about the potential danger as being overblown, in my experience, don’t seem to have a very good grasp of history or science. As Dr. Richman suggests, confirmed human-to-human transmission of swine flu is scary, because that’s exactly how pandemics — such as that caused by the spread of 1918 Spanish Flu — occur.As little as two years ago, a lot of folks could not conceive that we would soon be facing a global financial crisis of the proportions that now have come to pass, and criticized Dr. Roubini and others who saw clearly what was approaching as “Chicken Littles.” They’re not laughing now.Go to an old graveyard sometime and start counting the 1918 era tombstones, especially the ones for infants and young children. You’ll quickly get a picture of how bad an unpredicted pandemic can be.SWK

Errata:The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic actually killed mostly healthy young adults, as opposed to young children and the elderly. I had in mind while posting a smallpox outbreak in 1903.Here’s one good site regarding the security implications of a flu pandemic:http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3.htmSWK

“According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), it has been estimated that in the absence of any control measures such as vaccination and drugs, a “medium-level” influenza pandemic in the United States could kill 89,000 to 207,000 people, affect from 15 to 35 percent of the U.S. population, and generate associated costs ranging from $71 billion to $167 billion. Another Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate suggested that, in the United States alone, up to 200 million people will be infected, 50 million people will require outpatient care, two million people will be hospitalized, and between 100,000 and 500,000 persons will die.”http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_flu-pandemic-deaths.htmJust what do you imagine an unacceptable death rate to be? A death rate of .68% may sound insignificant, but it is huge for a single cause/event, particularly one that potentially affects millions of people worldwide. It will make a lot more people seriously ill, and will carry have cost impacts even on those not directly affected by the illness.SWK

Conficker Virus Begins To Attack PC’s

“Terrorist” Attack?

More Freedom Of Speech Violated

]“The Democrats have a lot to learn about the right of free speech under the US Constitution. Congress Henry Waxman’s (D-CA) refusal to expose Al Gore’s sci-fi comedy-horror testimony to proper, independent scrutiny by the House minority reeks of naked fear,” Monckton said from the airport Thursday evening.“Waxman knows there has been no ‘global warming’ for at least a decade. Waxman knows there has been seven and a half years’ global cooling. Waxman knows that, in the words of the UK High Court judge who condemned Gore’s mawkish movie as materially, seriously, serially inaccurate, ‘the Armageddon scenario that he depicts is not based on any scientific view,’” Monckton explained. Monckton has previously testified before the House Committee in March.

regarding some earlier comments from folks about US gold reserves, and what’s going on with the dollar and currenciesFirst, please see this article for some comments about the Fed and the bullion banks. I personally don’t like to promote a “conspiracy” thought process about investing. However, what the author isfundamentally saying is correct. Gold has been loaned by the US Gov’t and sold. They ca’t get this gold back unless they are willing to pay much higher prices to re-stock the US gold reserves, or they are willing to force miners in the USA to ptrovide gold at a lower cost than they do to the public.Gold Reserves and Bullion BanksTherefore, if the global system returned to a gold standard then it’s really unclear just how much the central banks have in gold reserves. My guess is .. the USA has been selling for a long time and probably has substantially less than listed on public records. This would force the price of gold to jump by maybe a factor of 10 times, if the global system went back to this standard.Although a gold standard enforces honesty in international transactions, this is not what the central banks want. or at least – it’s not what the countries who are deeply in debt want. It would take away most of the fancy footwork that the Fed is able to perform. So as I said before, I seriously doubt that Bernanke wants to do this.Much more likely would be the following scenario. If the US dollar “refuses” to go down in the intermediate future, then the USA may choose to announce a sudden devaluation of its currency. So if the dollar was devalued by 50%, this would cause the rpice of gold to double (against the dollar). Naturally the public would not be informed ahead of time. But given the insider leaks we have seen between Washington, the Fed, and Wall St, almost certainly some traders would get wind of this. So very likely a telltale sign would be a sudden dramatic jump in the price of gold … maybe the single biggest one-day jump ever (but for no apparent reason). That would likely signal that the USA would going to make a surprise announcement about currency devaluation.I am not saying this scenario is going to happen. It’s also quite conceivable that the USA dollar could resume its long-term downwards course in the currency charts. Naturally, the folks at the ed would much prefer this to happen. They want to see a steady controlled drop in the dollar, as part of a long-term inflation policy.PeteCA

A lot of the recent buying was (1) short covering and (2) buying on the technicals that were showing it was oversold.

Thanks, Morbid. I inadvertently repeated Guest’s miscalculation in my post, too.SWK

Obama Visit

The first case was seen in Mexico on April 13. The outbreak coincided with the President Barack Obama’s trip to Mexico City on April 16. Obama was received at Mexico’s anthropology museum in Mexico City by Felipe Solis, a distinguished archeologist who died the following day from symptoms similar to flu, Reforma newspaper reported. The newspaper didn’t confirm if Solis had swine flu or not.The Mexican government is distributing breathing masks to curtail the disease’s spread.There is no vaccine against the new strain of swine flu, health authorities said.

Has Obi been infected?

@PeteCaWhat to make of the IMF issuing bonds? The start of the central bank of central banks? What’s next-will they issue their own currency?http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IMF-head-says-it-will-sell-apf-15033270.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

The Spanish Flu genome has only been cracked in the last five years by top researchers in the USA, Russia, and China.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Flu#Mortality

SHAREHOLDERS BE DAMNED! By ALAN ABELSONHow the Washington gang brought Ken Lewis to heel and forced Bank of America to go through with its acquisition of loss-ridden MerrillLynch. If everything’s coming up roses, why are corporate insiders selling?April 25, 2009 — IT WAS JUST LIKE ONE OF THOSE NOIR FLICKS crafted from a Raymond Chandler novel. Imagine the opening scene.The time is last December. It’s a cold night with the wind howling. The camera zooms in on a dimly lit room in the center of which sitsa bespectacled banker sweating bullets, his body limp in a ratty chair, surrounded by a bunch of nasty-looking hombres wearingdouble-breasted suits, sinister fedoras and stone expressions.One of the gang, obviously a capo, leans menacingly toward the banker and snarls, “Do what we tell you to do or you’ve had it!” The banker knowshe’s in the tightest spot he has ever been in his 62 otherwise wonderful years on this blessed earth. (Worse by far than the time he had to collarthat killer disguised as a little old lady threatening to blow the bank up with a stick of dynamite “she” had sequestered in “her” bloomers.)If he agrees to do what they want, he risks losing his good name and with it the irreplaceable precious fruits of a lifetime of earnest labor.If he doesn’t…The toughs grow impatient. Shaking with fear, the banker rises from the chair to face his remorseless tormentors. From the hidden depths of hisbeing he somehow summons up the courage to declare in a suddenly strong and unwavering voice: “I’ll take it up with my board.”OK, so this audacious show of verbal defiance may not quite reach the level of “Give me liberty or give me death.” But we live in a lesseloquent age than did Patrick Henry and, remember, our hero is a banker, not a fiery patriot. And it takes a very brave man to tell his boardanything more substantive than what’s on the menu for lunch.Moreover, this was no celluloid chiller. It was the real thing. The banker, as you may have guessed, is Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America .And the bad guys harassing him are Hank Paulson, then Treasury secretary, and Ben Bernanke, head of the Federal Reserve, aided and abetted byshadowy henchmen.The script for this stranger-than-fiction melodrama was provided by that rabid (and fiercely ambitious) bulldog New York state attorney general,Andrew Cuomo. Mr. Cuomo, back in February, had been grilling Mr. Lewis on what his keen canine eye detected as another indignity — the awarding of$3.6 billion to employees of Merrill Lynch, the giant brokerage firm acquired by BofA on Jan. 1 of this year.What had Mr. Cuomo frothing at the mouth was that the $3.6 billion was shelled out even though Merrill suffered losses upwards of $15 billion in 2008′sfourth quarter alone.We must point out how fortuitous it was that losses had not reached, say, $30 billion, since by the peculiar calculus being used to reward red-ink, thatwould have boosted Merrill’s bonus tab to $7.2 billion. And enraging the chronically enraged Mr. Cuomo all the more was that the bonuses were distributedeven while the losses manifested themselves but were not disclosed, least of all to the bank’s shareholders.According to Mr. Cuomo’s dour narrative, the product of four hours of interrogation of Mr. Lewis, the merger with Merrill was proposed in Septemberafter two days of due diligence (sounds more like due negligence to us). It gained approval of shareholders of both companies on Dec. 5. Barely a weeklater comes the revelation: Merrill’s losses were spiraling ever higher, causing an increasingly frantic Mr. Lewis to weigh calling the marriage off.He reckoned he could legally do so thanks to MAC (material adverse event), recognizing that $7 billion more in losses than had been projected when themerger was agreed to was a very big MAC, indeed. He diffidently informed the powers-that-were of his plan to nix the nuptials and was summarilysummoned to powwow with them in Washington that very evening. And it was there that Messrs. Bernanke and Paulson put the screws to him to not break thedeal lest he trigger a systemic calamity.On Dec. 21, Mr. Lewis, still of a mind to ditch the merger, communicated his determination to Mr. Paulson, who bluntly warned that he would give the bootto Mr. Lewis and his board unless the acquisition went through. To that bald threat, Mr. Lewis’ retort was a resounding purr: “That makes it simple. Let’sde-escalate.”And de-escalate he did. The merger became a done deal right on schedule. To help salve any hurt feelings, Bank of America got $118 billon in loanguarantees from rich Uncle Sam to absorb any potential losses from Merrill.Let’s put it this way: As a stimulus for equities, come rain or come shine, just about nothing beats higher prices. They entice risk-shy investors,including or especially (hard to decide) those who have been mauled by the bear market, to edge off the sidelines and get their feet wet.Higher stock prices (as Ken Lewis might say) escalate expectations and earnings estimates of analysts, most of whom are, in any case, reflexivelybullish. They give the yak-yaks on Tout TV something to crow over and excite their innocent viewers.We don’t mean to beat up on Mr. Lewis. We haven’t the faintest doubt his refusal to stand tall was not prompted by fear of being fired. Heavens toBetsy, no. Rather, it likely sprang from too much heart: a deep-seated solicitude for his shareholders and a touching desire to shield them from theawful truth about the Merrill acquisition. Sure, they’re the putative owners of the company, but best not to upset them over something they’dinevitably learn about in due course when those losses started to eat up the bank’s bottom line.As to Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke, we’re sure they, too, are decent souls and value truth, except when it’s inconvenient. Despite vows oftransparency and all that blah, they were more than complicit in a rather shabby cover-up; they conceived it, pursued it and made certain throughmeans fair and foul it was carried out.Why, then, should anyone worry about the results of the bank stress tests slated to be released early next month and have inspired so muchanticipatory dread on Wall Street? As one wise cynic asks, given its demonstrated devotion to the banks and the financial markets, do you reallythink that the Washington gang is going to throw anybody of significance under the bus?

Believe but verify.

New Swine Flu Likely Widespread

A new and unusual strain of swine flu is likely widespread and impossible to contain at this point, experts agree.

They do mutate over time – probably why the 1918 pandemic faded after an intense six months to a year as I recall.There are so many vectors for this to get you through – I was just wondering if I want to have our mail delivery put on hold. Crazy stuff like that.There has been a growing fear amongst scientist that we are nearing another 1918 type incident. Maybe this is it. Maybe not. If not, does the danger go away or does the virus mutate into something more deadly.Something to sleep on.I can’t imagine what will happen if this is a real 1918 style “killer” – I keep imagining what I would do if I still lived in LA.I see WHO has gone International with their concern. If bad news continues to pour out of Mexico it will be 9/11 all over again. No airplane flights, etc.I also am hearing the Mexico is under-reporting the problem – probably so as not to panic the citizens.

A bioengineered virus like this is HIGHLY unlikely. It is relatively easy for this type of flu to be created in nature. Furthermore, it is inevitable that this kind of mutated flu virus will arise periodically and repeatedly.There is no need to consider this outbreak to be caused by any intentional action by any human being.That said, the implications are the same, regardless of the origin.Since this is an economics blog, I will not discuss the matter beyond pointing out the economic implications. The humanist implications are a totally different matter.Fear is a killer of the economy. Rational or not, if people believe that they are in danger by being exposed to other people, they will curtail activities that bring them into proximity with other people.The news cycle on this has only just begun. If the outbreak gains any momentum, it will dominate the headlines. Consumers worldwide could shut themselves in.This, then, would constitute a “Black Swan” event that could speed the economic downturn. No houses get sold if buyers want to avoid contact with other people. Retail sales and services would be similarly devastated.Again, this consequence arises out of fear, not out of reality. If the reality becomes a pandemic, well, at that point it feels pedantic to be discussing the impact on the economy – even on this blog.–Brian

Exactly. It began long ago, in July 1944 to be exact. Here is corroborative evidence compiled from G. Edward Griffin’smassive treatise on the Fed:Harry Dexter White and John Maynard Keynes were the theoreticians who guided the 1944 Bretton Woods Monetary Conference at which theIMF/World Bank was created.White was a member of the Communist Party. Keynes was a member of the Fabian Society. They shared the same goal of international socialism.The IMF and World Bank were designed as mechanisms for eliminating gold from world finance. The Federal Reserve’s role, through a complex tangleof bank loans, subsidies and grants, was to be “lender of last resort” for virtually the entire planet.Says Griffin: “Prior to this conference, currencies were exchanged in terms of their gold value, and the arrangement was called the‘gold-exchange standard.’ This is not the same as a ‘gold-standard’ in which a currency is backed by gold. It was merely that theexchange ratios of the various currencies—most of which were not backed by gold—were determined by how much gold they could buy in the market.Politicians and bankers hated the arrangement, because it was beyond their ability to manipulate…”The method by which this was to be accomplished was exactly the method devised on Jekyll Island to allow American banks to create money out ofnothing without paying the penalty of having their currencies devalued by other banks. It was the establishment of a world central bank whichwould create a common fiat money for all nations and then require them to inflate together at the same rate. There was to be a kind of internationalinsurance fund which would rush that fiat money to any nation that temporarily needed it to face down a ‘run’ on its currency…“When the IMF was created, it was the vision of Fabian Socialist John Maynard Keynes that there be a world central bank issuing a reserve currency calledthe ‘bancor’ to free all governments from the discipline of gold. With the creation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), the IMF had finally begun tofulfill that dream.”

The Red Horse of the Apocalypse?

When he broke the second seal, I heard the second animal shout, “COME.” And out came another horse, bright red, and its rider was given this duty: to take away peace from the earth and set people killing each other. He was given a huge sword. Rev. 6:3-4

Spreading the virus is – “set people killing each other.”Theta, thanks for the hand washing tip – after reading the mail. That should do it – have to be careful about letting the mail rub on stuff – like cloths, counter tops, etc. My God, what is our world coming to. It’s becoming all too MORBID.

The Wall Street Journal April 23:CORPORATE NEWSSlump Persists for Freight HaulersFirst-Quarter Volumes at UPS, Two Big Railroads Expected to Show DeclineVW’s Net Tumbles 74% on Global SlumpImmelt Says GE Is Braced for a StormBoeing Cuts Outlook as Net SagsWeak Airline Traffic, Tight Financing Precipitate Deferred Aircraft OrdersEBay Profit Falls 22%As Shoppers Cut BackTechnology Business Bolsters NorthropThe Los Angeles defense contractor on WednesdayReported a 47% increase in 1st-Q profitEmployers Make Cuts Despite Belief Upturn Is NearSome Worry That Reductions Will Prove Costly When Recession Ends and Disgruntled Workers Can Seek New JobsGlaxo Profit Falls 13%,Hurt by Generic RivalsStrong iPhone SalesHelp Buoy AT&TMUTUAL FUNDSMoney-Market Assets FallAs Mutual Funds See InflowsAssets in money-market funds fell $28.32 billion in the latest week, even as theweeks-long stock market rally stalled, according to iMoneyNet’s Money FundReport…The Investment Company Institute said Wednesday that long-term mutual funds saw$8.86 billion of net inflows, or net purchases, for the week ended April 15… long-termmutual funds saw inflows for the fifth consecutive week as investors poured intoboth bond and stock funds, though at a slower pace than in prior weeks, according toICI. Inflows in the past five weeks have brought the total to $46.23 billion.

The rest of Alan Abelson’s Up and Down Wall Street column in today’s Barron’s:SINCE WE ENDED THE LAST ITEM with a question (two, to be precise), we feel, just in the interest of interconnectivity,we should begin this one with a question: How come, if the stock market is telling us everything is coming up roses –the Dow has shot up 23% since March 9, the S&P 500 28% and dear old Nasdaq 34% — corporate insiders are selling like there’s no tomorrow?Much as anything, we suspect, what has given legs to this rather improbable but undeniably impressive rally is the rally itself.Let us assure you that we haven’t gone mystical (we’ve enough sins to atone for without adding still another).In other words, they serve to inject a dose of euphoria into the investment atmosphere, particularly after a long and morose stretchof gloomy markets, like last year’s.Of course, rising equity prices also inspire less chimerical reasons for the quickened interest in the stock market. They are widely takenby institutions, individuals and kibitzers as a welcome harbinger of economic recovery, and there’s been a lot of that lately. Our own feeling,as you may have gleaned, is that such hopes are heavily laced with wishful thinking.Leading us to the question with which we began these musings: If those now infamous shoots of recovery are popping up all over, why wouldinsiders be so aggressively dumping stocks?Yet, they indisputably are. According to a study prepared for Bloomberg by Washington Service, a research outfit, directors, officers andthe like have sold $353 million worth of stock in this fading month, or 8.3 times the total bought. As a matter of fact, according to thefirm, insider purchases of $42.5 million are on track to make April the skimpiest month for such buying since July 1992.The pace of selling in the first three weeks of this month, incidentally, was the swiftest since the market peaked and the bear came outof hibernation with a vengeance in October ’07.We’re quite aware that insiders are not infallible. But they are, after all, in the front lines of commerce and industry and so presumably have abetter fix on the economy and the prospects for recovery than analysts and economists, whether of macro or micro persuasion.And just as they wouldn’t be laying off people in such extraordinary numbers if they thought their business was about to rebound soon,they’d be loath to liquidate their holdings in such an emphatic way if they espied a turnaround in the offing.It all boils down to this: Nobody ever sold a stock because they thought it would go up. And as a group, corporate insiders obviously arescarcely enthusiastic about the prospects for a genuine bull market.

ok – it may not be the evil gov – although it will ALWAYS my 1st suspect.the odd part about the H1N1 is the eurasian component, the best theory so far is the “Chinese traveler”, however, how many Chinese tourists are there in Perote, MX???From Civil Eats:http://civileats.com/2009/04/25/swine-flu-linked-to-smithfield-pig-cafo/Until now Confined Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) have been mostly criticized for the cess pools they produce, and the mistreatment of animals and workers. But following along as Nicholas Kristof reported in the New York Times recently, there is a risk that MRSA, a virulent bacteria without any cure, is being incubated in hog operations in the midwest — a bug that is easily transmissible to humans via our genetic similarities to pigs. Now, a much bigger problem has presented itself — it seems a new virulent flu, which the World Health Organization is saying has “pandemic potential,” has been possibly linked to a CAFO in Perote, Mexico owned and operated by industrial pork operator Smithfield.Smithfield is the world’s largest pork producer. At the Perote, Mexico facility operated by Smithfield subsidary Granjas Carroll, 950,000 pigs were raised and sold for meat in 2008. According to the disease-tracking site Biosurveillance:Residents [of La Gloria, Perote Municipality, Veracruz State, Mexico] believed the outbreak had been caused by contamination from pig breeding farms located in the area. They believed that the farms, operated by Granjas Carroll, polluted the atmosphere and local water bodies, which in turn led to the disease outbreak. According to residents, the company denied responsibility for the outbreak and attributed the cases to ‘flu.’ However, a municipal health official stated that preliminary investigations indicated that the disease vector was a type of fly that reproduces in pig waste and that the outbreak was linked to the pig farms. It was unclear whether health officials had identified a suspected pathogen responsible for this outbreak.As of this moment, cases of the animal strain of the H1N1 virus have been reported in New York, California and Kansas. The virus has killed up to 68 people and there are currently 1,004 suspected cases in Mexico and 8 in the United States. However, there have been few mentions of the connection between swine flu and the Smithfield CAFO in the US news. There is an informative piece up on Huffington Post which gives a history by David Kirby. In it, the connection between industrial pork operations and potential disease is clear according to Ellen Silbergeld, professor of environmental health sciences at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, and a leading researcher of pathogen evolution in CAFOs. Here is a selection from Kirby’s piece:“CAFOs are not biosecure,” she told me. “They have high rates of ventilation and enormous number of animals that would die of heat stress unless the building was ventilated. We and others have measured bacteria and viruses in the environment around poultry and swine houses. They are carried by flies, too. These places are not bio-secure going in – or going out.”“These mixing bowls of intensive operations of chickens and pigs are contributing to speeding up viral evolution,” Dr. Silbergeld added. “I think CAFOs are contributing.”Huffington Post:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-kirby/swine-flu-outbreak—-nat_b_191408.html“The question, then, is could the Asian avian virus contain swine flu components from Eurasian pigs?”Absolutely,” said Ellen Silbergeld, professor of environmental health sciences at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, and a leading researcher of pathogen evolution in CAFOs. “A pig infected by avian virus can then come into contact with swine virus, which then combines and gets picked up by a bird again. It’s a viral patchwork. Wild birds can carry virus with swine components in it – a lot of avian viruses contain elements from pigs.”Silbergeld is by no means convinced that birds brought the Eurasian genetic material to Mexico.And of course, people fly, too. Dr. Silbergeld thinks that human travel is the most likely way that Eurasian swine viral components made their way to Mexico. “A tourist from China could have gone to Mexico City, and that Asian strain was picked up by somebody else, who then went to a swine barn,” she suggested. “It’s a likely explanation. Sometimes we overestimate what wild birds can do.”

“In this light, anything that the government can try to do, absent continuing to print massive amounts of dollars, is irrelevant. The equity market can easily go up indefinitely, short squeezes can be generated at will, TALF can see 10 new, increasingly more meaningless permutations, the administration can prepare worthless stress tests that are neither stressing nor testing, and talk up a storm on cable TV to convince regular investors that all is well, yet none of these will do one thing to provide the banks and CMBS borrowers with the massive capital they will need to plug the value gap either during a CRE loan’s term or at maturity. The multi-trillion problem is simply too massive to be manipulated and is also too large to be simply swept under the carpet for the next administration and generation. It is inevitable that the monster hiding in the closet will have to be addressed head on, and the sooner it happens, the less the eventual destruction of individual and societal net worth (however, it still would be massive). Delaying the inevitable at this point is not a viable option: Zero Hedge hopes the administration realizes this, ironically, before it is too late.”http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/one-trillion-commercial-real-estate.htmlHo hum

imagine the dilemma, the recent mexico and US flu is the same strain/type,so if WHO announced to quarantine mexico city shouldn’t America be treated the same…latest news:-PeterJB its down under nowhttp://english.cri.cn/6966/2009/04/26/2001s478863.htmA school group from New Zealand’s largest city of Auckland was being quarantined at home after returning from Mexico, New Zealand media reported on Sunday.An emergency decree has been declared in Mexico following the outbreak of a new flu virus suspected of killing 81 people there. The World Health Organization has declared the outbreaks of influenza-like illness in Mexico and four U.S. states as a “public health emergency of international concern”.Twenty-two students and three teachers from Auckland’s Rangitoto College were being quarantined at home in Auckland on Sunday after returning from Mexico, many with flu-like symptoms, Radio New Zealand reported.

Compare Philadelphia 1918, 1.75M population:1.Oct.1918: 117 died5.Oct: 254 died6.Oct:289 died9.Oct:428 diedCamp Devens, 45,000 soldiersSept.8 : 1st caseSep.23 : 63 deadSep.20: 1543 new casesSep.25:271 new casesSep.25: 83 deathsSep.19: sum=6,500 casesSep.26:sum=627 deaths6-8 weeks in a town , 3-4 weeks in a camphttp://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=100545

How much of this insider selling can be attributed to the April 15th tax deadline? If selling continues past this deadline, then maybe an argument can be made about a deteriorating economic outlook. Right now it appears to be the former.

I got a few dumb questions regarding this article below…1. What f..king planet do these compamies and thier people work on?2. What is it they exactly do to earn this money, other than steal from people?3. What are thier skills other than a college degree?4. What amikes them think they should get so filthy rich managing other peoples money who actually Work?5. Who actually thinks we will recover form the mess and learn our lesson?6. If the avg is 500K what are the top dogs making? Must suck to be avg at one of these banks…After an Off Year, Wall Street Pay Is Bouncing BackOf the large banks receiving federal help, Goldman Sachs stands out for setting aside the most per person for compensation. The bank, which nearly halved its compensation last year, set aside $4.7 billion for worker pay in the quarter. If that level continues all year, it would add up to average pay of $569,220 per worker — almost as much as the pay in 2007, a record year.At other banks, pay scales tilt in favor of particular units. JPMorgan Chase, for example, is setting aside what would total $138,234 on average for workers. But in the bank’s trading and investment banking unit, if revenue stays at first-quarter levels, workers are on track to earn an average of $509,524 over the year. That figure was $345,147 in 2006.http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/business/26pay.html?_r=2&hp

Gold is a risk! First off it is no more a store of value as fiat currency in fact less. Governments of the world sanction and control what is to be allowed as a medium of exchange for value and the governments dictate fiat currency to be the trade-able exchange medium, not gold. For gold to really take off people around the world would have to bypass their governments authority and start using it as a medium of exchange and if or when people try doing that watch the governments around the world out law it in a hurry. By buying gold, short of some speculative bubble that may happen what you are really doing is trying to undermine the government authority and military you ever heard the song “I fought the law and the law won”.2ndly everyone I know these days has way less money to spend massive amounts of money have been pulled from the system and that’s hardly inflationary when people need to eat they sell everything including their gold. Yes the government is borrowing too much money and that can and will cause inflation but will it be enough to completely undermine the governments authority and their currency by allowing gold to be the new currency? Pretty big gamble by a lot of you guys if you ask me.

True, subgenius. Good luck trying to convince members of the Inhoff crowd who post here, though.SWK

It’s hard to see where the Fed would get the cash or how Congress would ever approve such an appropriation? Well, in thatbonds = expansion of credit via a money substitute and in that credit = banker language for “excess reserves” and in thatexcess reserves = money waiting to be created, and in that the Fed creates money at will with no oversight from Congressad infinitum until collapse, you have your answer — inflation. Fiat money is government and banker purchasing powerwithout taxes.The boom-bust effect of inflation is the gradual evaporation of the people’s purchasing power and the continuous transferof property to those who control government and run banks.The public has the last say so, however. If no one wants to borrow their money, the game is over.

Yep MM CA, the best and the brightest need to be well compensated.The reality is that when you have nothing substantial to offer society, and you therefore have nothing to lose from your own efforts, you have a pretty powerful incentive to specialize in the fine art of the fleece.

Why then is the Chinese increasing there gold reserve for the last five years

My earlier comments were not intended to promote fear. And I agree that the speculation that the virus is engineered probably belongs more in the pages of a thriller in the New York Times list. But if someone wanted to create a virus that was effective as a weapon of fear against a human population, what you are looking at in Mexico City is certainly a plausible possibility. Influenze viruses can spread very quickly through the human population, and they are very contagious in airborn form. A new ‘flu viru also tends to raise less suspicion when it first occurs, because doctors tend to suspect it’s probably just another case of the same old suff that’s going around.Fortunately, we’ve some very good things working for us. The SARS out break in Asia helped the international community to come together and work much faster against these kinds of threats. That seems to be really paying off now – with the Mexico incident. I am cautiously optimistic that the authorities will get on top of this. So I’m not really worrying that much myself (although this is bound to wind up on the cover of Time magazine!). But I wouldn’t be surprised at all to learn that the situtation in some parts of Mexico is worse than the media are reporting. Exactly the same thing happened in China during the early stages of SARS.PeteCA

Apocalypse will commethhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5220118/The-capital-well-is-running-dry-and-some-economies-will-wither.html

That’s just another hedge, I assume. With reference to the last five years, you could say the same thing about their acquisition of U.S. Treasuries, couldn’t you?SWK

please, stop judging. you are not capable

Thank you for your opinion. imho, we are looking at yet another variant of the WMD tactic.In case you were sleeping, the most outlandish fear injection variant used recently was in the autumn of 2008, when the govt,fin.industry, & congress put a gun to the head of the populous concerning economic collapse.The scale of the abuse is so extreme nowadays, that even a bright blogger like you is becoming numb to the tactics, and that is very sad.

From Jon Stewart – a new segment on the Daily Show=> Sh#t That’s Never Gonna Happen (04:06)

A good site that updates pandemic news and provides links to worldwide health sitesPandemicFlu.ca

So if I go to a barber shop what do I say? Take a little off the top?

Funny you say that, subgenius. I recall the swine flu pandemic scare under the Ford administration. My entire family went in for the swine flu vaccine — all but me — and they all fell ill from the vaccine.SWK

This is incorrect.Generally, the reason for deaths from pandemics falling in the 20ish-40ish age range are because individuals in this range have a strong immune system that is prepared to fight all-out for survival. The immune response is what kills, NOT the flu itself. Think of it as drowning in your own phlegm…

Taking Liberties with Price Stability by The Mogambo GuruPaul Volcker, the legendary former chairman of the Federal Reserve who heroically defeated a raging inflation, against powerful politicalopposition, which was the result of massive government spending in the ’60s and ’70s on wars and increased entitlement spending, and who is nowmysteriously part of the ridiculous Obama team of economic nitwits occupying in the White House, has finally said something!After all these months of sheer economic idiocy flooding from the White House, Congress, the Federal Reserve and everywhere you turn, Paul Volcker hasfinally said something!And, even more deliciously, he said it to Fed Vice-chairman Donald Kohn, one of the arrogant, lowlife mental defectives whoseegregious monetary actions got us into the mess we are in, at some dorky “question-and-answer session at a conference” in Nashville, Tennessee.As the Wall Street Journal reports, “the former Fed chairman grilled Mr. Kohn over the Fed’s effort to convey that it considers a 2% inflation rateto be appropriate for the U.S. economy in the long term” and he, “questions how the Fed can talk about both 2% inflation and price stability.”Mr. Volcker actually said, “I don’t get it,” which is a Big Fat Lie (BFL), because he understands it perfectly, but he is just so polite and sopolitic that he finds it hard to say, as I would have so succinctly put it, “How…can you talk about purposely creating at least 2% inflation in pricesand then talk about the Fed’s duty to pursue price stability at the same…time, which gives rise to the expression ‘talking out of both sides of yourmouth at the same time’, and also gives rise to an occasion for me to call you a lying halfwit economic ignoramus who thinks that everybody else is sostupid that you can say such utter preposterous #@%8# like this to me and think I am going to swallow it!”I mean, the idea for the…Federal Reserve in the First…Place (FFP) was to make sure that inflation did NOT get above zero! The Federal Reserve was givenextraordinary, probably un-Constitutional powers over all the money and banks of the United States, to provide them with a “flexible” money supply andwith the awesome power of a fiat currency to do it with, on the condition that they “promote price stability,” which means zero inflation in prices!Zero!I mean, how…simple can it…be?And not only does “price stability” mean Zero… Inflation (ZFI) in prices, it has ALWAYS meant zero inflation in prices,and yet, now, astonishingly, here is an obviously complete failure, the Federal Reserve Vice-chairman, presiding as he does over a busted economy ofhis own making, telling us that, as Mr. Volcker explains, “people in a generation are going to be losing half their purchasing power” thanks to2% inflation! Gaaahhh!Now, having a currency that is losing half its purchasing power may not mean anything – absolutely nothing! – to an incompetentgovernment and autonomous agencies staffed with obviously incompetent people who all can, and will, double their own salaries at their whim.“Prices rise? Give yourself more money!”It means a bit more, however, to people who have private-sector jobs, as wages will only slowly increase to match the gradual doubling in prices aswage increases trail inflation with a lag, which means that workers will suffer financially the entire time.And even after wage and benefit adjustments,and even after some theoretical cessation of inflation in prices, private-sector workers will never really catch up, and will therefore almostcertainly suffer permanent net-wealth impairment.And a currency that loses half its purchasing power means a lot to those on fixed incomes, likeretirees living on annuities or fixed retirement benefits, and who will never, ever see an increase in their incomes from those sources, but who muststill pay the doubled prices, and then higher and higher prices from there, if they live that long.But a currency “losing half its purchasing power in a generation” means the most to those people who do not have jobs at all, and those who cannothave jobs, and therefore they have no income at all, but who still must pay all the doubled prices!And although Mr. Kohn does not use the word “sacrifice,” or the phrase “The Federal Reserve is going to make it possible for the government to steal youblind,” or admit that “The people of the United States and the world are going to be consumed in the fires of inflationary hell so that the FederalReserve can continue to create misery and failure, while having fun playing around with their completely idiotic neo-Keynesian econometric stupidities,an absurdity that has completely captivated the dunderheads in the major universities of the dumbed-down USA, like Princeton, which has such lowacademic standards that Ben Bernanke, the bozo that is now the chairman of the Federal Reserve, was the head of their economics department! Hahaha!”So while Mr. Kohn is careful not to say any of these things, he does say that acting so insanely as to deliberately try and cause the horror of (at least)continual 2% inflation in prices gives the Federal Reserve “a little more room…to react to an adverse shock to the economy.” Hahahaha!Excuse my laughter, but this laughable pipsqueak says that everyone must suffer a falling standard of living over, at least, the next generation, so thatthe Fed can create so much money, flooding the world with money to loan and literally buying up old loans, that they can pound interest ratesdown, down, down lower than the rate of inflation, which the WSJ notes, is “the usual remedy for recession”! Hahahaha!And ifinflation in prices is “the usual remedy for recession,” then it certainly is!And while the inflation in consumer prices is not (yet) raging out of control and there are not yet food riots in the streets, theJOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index just shot up to 72.63 from 69.75.And as for what to do about it, I can only tell you that there has never been anything better than gold, which, now that I think about it,says it all!Whee! This investing stuff is easy!http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig10/mogambo8.html

Thank you, I think. We fell for the Gulf of Tonkin incident, we fell for the WMD nonsense in Iraq, and we’ll undoubtedly fall for another such bogus manipulation of public opinion in the future. I appreciate fully your concerns.I don’t think I’ve become numb to the fear-mongering tactics you describe; rather, I find that it remains impossible to discern readily whether one is facing a “Wag the Dog” fabrication or a genuine emergency. Prudence, in my view, dictates erring generally on the side of presuming the possible validity of the asserted crisis and doing one’s best to continually ascertain the true facts bearing on the same. Otherwise, one may wind up like the villagers who, having come to the aid of the boy shepherd who cried “Wolf!” more than once before, eventually ignore his genuine pleas and wind up losing their flock. I’d rather waste time being called to a false alarm and punish the fellows who set it off than to find the next morning that the house I could have saved has burned down.As I’ve heard an old Middle East saying goes, trust in Allah, but tie up your camel.SWK

Well, everyone needs a little adrenaline rush from time to time, Jason… SWK

CDC announced something about a mutation in Denmark..i think this “film” will be rated PG soon

believe but verify:http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/29/magazine/29flu.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1&8hpibapparantly this data was shared as well – ???????????ugh.we are in hell

Google map of H1N1 Swine FluH1N1 Swine flu in 2009Pink markers are suspectPurple markers are confirmedDeaths lack a dot in markerhttp://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=106484775090296685271.0004681a37b713f6b5950&ll=47.100045,9.316406&spn=34.792294,79.101563&t=h&z=4

The Chinese buying of Treasuries allowed them to game the system. China would not be the economic powerthey are today without the American consumer buying their goods and financing their manufacturing growth.True, their increase in Gold reserves is a calculated hedge against the devaluation of the dollar. Gold doeshold its value over the long run whereas every fiat currencies goes eventually to its intrinsic value.Everyone knows the US can never pay off its debt without defaulting or, most likely, serious inflation. I, therefore,would follow the path of the Chinese and buy Gold

20 cases!!!! OMG you’re kidding…I haven’t seen twenty cases since Friday!!!!!

An Explanatory Short StoryThere’s quite a bit of discussion and controversy about who is at fault for the present economic mess (and there’s plenty of fault to go around), but there is little discussion or controversy about who is responsible for creating the environment and situations that made this grotesque reality possible. Of course, I’m talking about the bubble-master twins (namely Milton Friedman and Ben Bernanke). Milt had a John-The-Baptist like relation to Ben–he came to prepare the way for him. But you have to give Ben credit. Ben is the biggest spender in history by a factor of ten or so, and he’s not done yet. He makes FDR look like a piker, and Ben’s spending record may well endure forever. He reminds me of a doctor that gives you medicine that makes you sick, and then charges you a fortune for trying to cure the illness for which he himself was largely responsible.Anyway, while my short story is semi-fictional, it does supply an Occam’s razor type explanation of what happened:—–Once upon a time, not too long ago, on one of those rare occasions when Ben wasn’t talking, hefell into a meditative mode. His thinking went something like this:”This great country hungers for great wealth! I could design and implement a virtual factory that Americans and selected foreigners could use to create wealth like the world has never seen. An unlimited supply of seed money would be available for investment purposes, and I’d actually pay people to borrow it. And there would be little regulation or monitoring of activities so as not to stifle creativity or risk-taking. I am a great fabricator! I will fabricate such a virtual wealth creation factory! I will build it, and they will come!”He was certainly right about that–they did come:They came by twos, they came by foursThey came by eights, they came by scoresCame the old and the young ones tooTo try their hand at Bernanke voodoo.They came singing. “Hi Ho, Hi Ho, it’s off to work we go!” And the fruits of their labor were fabulous. Firstly, new forms of bond-like investment certificates were invented which facilitated a leveraging of invested seed money by a factor of thirty or forty. This in turn had other spectacular results: To mention just a fewThe Dow and the GDP soared off into the stratosphere. Of course, some skeptics were quick to point out that the soaring DOW was based on a soaring GDP, which was in turn based on the American consumer “buying things he doesn’t need with money that he doesn’t have”. But of course, there are a few nay sayers in every crowd.There is another spectacular result that I like in particular because it has a democratic savor to it. Many paupers were (and some still are) living in million dollar houses! (Some paupers actually had two million dollar houses–one for summer use and the other for the winter.) And that’s not the best part of it–every year the value of these houses increased 10%, and the pauper only had to go to the bank and sign his name, and the bank would give him the 10% in cash. Some members of congress were concerned that these practices might lead to problems, but Ben assured them that this was not the case. For example, in October of 2005, Ben Bernanke that told the congress that they didn’t have to worry about the housing bubble busting because the increases in housing prices was based on “very strong economic fundamentals”?There are other examples (such as commercial real estate, bank credit card, etc.), but this gets tedious very fast. But needless to say, there was widespread euphoria about economy, and this euphoria included the President of the United States George Bush, who often referred to the “good economy” and its “solid foundations”.Anyway, there was a late comer to Ben’s factory–the GGE (the Greater Global Economy), who arrived singing a different song from that of the early comers:”Down, Down, Down I comeLike glistening Phaeton losing the manage of unruly jades”—Dear reader, please do not complain that this short story is too short–it is not over yet.For example, Ben insists that the economy will return to the etheral state it was in when his wealth factory was at at maximum production, Tim Geithner swears by this, and Obama believes in what they say. For this to happen, it seems to me that Ben’s wealth factory will, like the phoenix bird, have to rise again from its ashes, and hopefully like the phoenix, will last 500 years. (In other words, how can an economy not on steroids and in decline return to the level of an economy on steroids?) But Ben and Tim, both honorable men, say that this is so, and Obama believes them, so I guess that’s the way it is.

” obviously… ” IFPH’mmm sounds about right!Ho hum

Correction Alert:Just a Hunch – that is* – I have no supportive evidence, but,my “gut” tells me that Goldman Sachs will soon bite the dust – Really Big Time! There is something that smells* rotten here…and, I think that this is “the” subtle event (winds from butterfly wings) that will mark the end of the Old and the beginning of the New.Disclaimer: I repeat: Intuition Only – gut feeling and Absolutely No specific data to support this statement.Your mileage will vary. Have a nice day!Ho humReply to this comment By PeterJB on 2009-04-27 05:23:25

what makes you say poor obama. I think its ludacris the man is in on everything.

Ah yes, Who is John Galt?

NEW THREAD

So I should address my resume to the attention of Mr. Fink?Why resist the party and die in the gulag when one can join the party and have a nice little dacha by the sea?

What, you still open your mail? Thought you would have stopped doing that during the Anthrax scare.

g, consider fatigue from running by the side of the bus.negotiating time warp. internal and externalrhythm, clashing. central nervous systemirritation due to digital madness. overload.retreat to paper pages and cloud sighting.still hanging on words,